NBA Fantasy News 2012/2013

[HacheMan]

Klay Thompson finishes off strong January

By Josh Whitling, Special to ESPN.com

Fresh off his season-high 32-point effort Tuesday, Klay Thompson dropped 27 points on 11-for-18 shooting with three 3-pointers against the Mavericks on Thursday night, putting his January averages at 18.7 points with 2.7 3s, 4.0 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.5 blocks per game. That's the highest scoring average in any month of his career, and after a rough start to the season when lofty preseason expectations seemingly weighed upon him and he shot 38.6 percent from the floor, he ranks 21st on the 30-day Player Rater and is fourth in 3-pointers during that span. Thompson is poised to be one of the top 3-point shooters in the league for the next decade, although the area that can potentially hinder his fantasy value is field goal percentage. But his improvement over the past month and the natural increase in shooting percentage that often happens as a player matures bode well for his long-term value, and after a sluggish start to the season Thompson looks primed to be a top-30 player going forward. Considering his average draft position of 68.0, Thompson is paying dividends to those who selected him. And with Stephen Curry, Andrew Bogut, Harrison Barnes, Jarrett Jack and the rest of the surprisingly effective Warriors roster drawing attention away from him, look for his 3-point barrage to continue for the remainder of the season.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]THURSDAY, JAN. 31[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]David Lee, Warriors: 15 points, 20 rebounds, 9 assists, 3 3-pointers versus Mavericks
Shawn Marion, Mavericks: 18 points (8-11 FG), 17 rebounds against Warriors
O.J. Mayo, Mavericks: 25 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 3-pointers versus Warriors
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Elton Brand, Mavericks: 4 points, 5 assists against Warriors
Darren Collison: 6 points, 7 assists versus Wizards
Carl Landry, Warriors: 10 points, 6 rebounds against Heat



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• Jerryd Bayless scored 23 points with six assists and two 3s against the Thunder as the Grizzlies played just nine players, continuing his recent surge in which he's averaging 15.8 points and 5.8 assists per game over his past five contests. His value has already been on the rise, and now that a high-usage player like Rudy Gay is out of the picture, Bayless' ability to create offense and dynamism will be valuable for the Grizzlies. His ownership has shot up to 37.1 percent owned, so it's time to pounce if you're looking for a boost in points, assists and 3s going forward.

• Carl Landry notched just 19 minutes Thursday night, and is averaging just 16.5 minutes per game in two games with Andrew Bogut in the lineup. Landry has been fantastic this season, averaging 12.0 points and 6.7 rebounds per game on 52.3 percent shooting in 25.3 minutes per game, but with Bogut in the lineup it appears that his minutes will diminish, and his fantasy value will go with it. He's still worth a roster spot in deeper leagues, but if there's a better option out there in standard leagues, Landry appears droppable.

• Rodrigue Beaubois played 18 minutes Thursday, and is slowly working his way back into the Mavericks' rotation after averaging just 7.5 minutes per game in December. He's averaging 8.5 points with 2.3 assists, 1.3 3s and 0.8 steals in 17.0 minutes per game over his past four contests, and given the need for a legitimate backup for Darren Collison, it would be excellent for fantasy owners and Mavs fans if he kept inching toward productivity. His career averages of 0.7 3s and 0.7 steals per game in just 16.2 career minutes indicate high upside, so if he can continue earning more minutes he could find himself on the fantasy radar for deep leagues.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Rudy Gay, Jose Calderon, Ed Davis and the rest of the players involved in the 3-team deal involving the Raptors, Grizzlies and Pistons could debut with their new teams Friday, and it's critical to monitor how their minutes shake out in their new digs. Gay's value will likely improve as he'll have the green light in Toronto, but Davis and Calderon could see decreased roles based upon how they're used. I'd hold off on making any roster-based decisions regarding these players over the next week, as it'll take some time for them to acclimate and one game is far too small a sample size in which to make drastic judgments about their value going forward.

• Chris Paul will sit again with his bruised kneecap, making Eric Bledsoe a must-start in all formats. He's averaging 11.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 2.4 steals and 1.4 blocks per game over his past five with Paul sidelined, and is providing fantasy owners with a glimpse of what he's capable of providing when he eventually gets his own team and sees increased playing time. Early indications are that he'll be a fantasy star, so be sure to start him with confidence as long as Paul is out.

• Carlos Boozer is questionable with a strained hamstring, making Taj Gibson an excellent spot start Friday night if Boozer is expected to miss the game. Gibson dropped 14 points with nine rebounds and two blocks Wednesday with Boozer sidelined and is an enticing source of rebounds and blocks anytime he's getting increased run.

• DeMarcus Cousins has been struggling mightily of late, averaging 10.5 points and 5.0 rebounds per game over his past four contests. I wouldn't worry, and it might be time to float out a trade offer to his owner, as buying low on a high-upside player like Cousins could be a turning point in the season for a middling fantasy team.

 

[HacheMan]

Lawson's strong month encouraging

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com

With another month coming to a close and the All-Star game just two weeks away, it's time for another game of fun with numbers, this time focusing on recent trends and splits for the month of January.

[h=3]The Top 130[/h]Note: Brian McKitish's top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2012-13 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses.
1. Kevin Durant, OKC (1)
2. LeBron James, MIA (2)
3. Russell Westbrook, OKC (4)
4. James Harden, HOU (5)
5. Kyrie Irving, CLE (6)
6. Stephen Curry, GS (8)
7. Nicolas Batum, POR (7)
8. Kobe Bryant, LAL (9)
9. Chris Paul, LAC (3)
10. Carmelo Anthony, NY (10)
11. Serge Ibaka, OKC (11)
12. Marc Gasol, MEM (13)
13. Paul George, IND (12)
14. Dwyane Wade, MIA (16)
15. Jrue Holiday, PHI (15)
16. Deron Williams, BKN (17)
17. Brandon Jennings, MIL (18)
18. Josh Smith, ATL (20)
19. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR (21)
20. David Lee, GS (23)
21. Damian Lillard, POR (19)
22. Brook Lopez, BKN (24)
23. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (25)
24. Al Jefferson, UTAH (22)
25. Greg Monroe, DET (26)
26. Ty Lawson, DEN (35)
27. Kemba Walker, CHA (27)
28. Paul Pierce, BOS (28)
29. Blake Griffin, LAC (34)
30. Rudy Gay, TOR (47)
31. Anthony Davis, NO (29)
32. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (30)
33. John Wall, WSH (31)
34. Mike Conley, MEM (33)
35. Zach Randolph, MEM (36)
36. Tony Parker, SA (42)
37. Greivis Vasquez, NO (39)
38. Ryan Anderson, NO (41)
39. Al Horford, ATL (45)
40. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (59)
41. Dwight Howard, LAL (32)
42. Chris Bosh, MIA (38)
43. Monta Ellis, MIL (43)
44. Larry Sanders, MIL (46)
45. Kyle Lowry, TOR (95)
46. Wesley Matthews, POR (44)
47. Klay Thompson, GS (52)
48. Andrei Kirilenko, MIN (37)
49. Tim Duncan, SA (40)
50. Danilo Gallinari, DEN (54)
51. J.R. Smith, NY (49)
52. Joakim Noah, CHI (14)
53. Goran Dragic, PHO (56)
54. George Hill, IND (51)
55. Luol Deng, CHI (58)
56. Jameer Nelson, ORL (53)
57. Steve Nash, LAL (48)
58. Andre Iguodala, DEN (60)
59. Jeff Teague, ATL (68)
60. Paul Millsap, UTAH (50)
61. O.J. Mayo, DAL (55)
62. Kevin Garnett, BOS (71)
63. Pau Gasol, LAL (62)
64. Nikola Pekovic, MIN (75)
65. Kenneth Faried, DEN (57)
66. Roy Hibbert, IND (64)
67. Amare Stoudemire, NY (69)
68. Carlos Boozer, CHI (66)
69. Joe Johnson, BKN (61)
70. Tyreke Evans, SAC (67)
71. Kevin Martin, OKC (70)
72. Tristan Thompson, CLE (82)
73. Jeremy Lin, HOU (73)
74. Raymond Felton, NY (72)
75. Ricky Rubio, MIN (74)
76. Evan Turner, PHI (76)
77. David West, IND (78)
78. Nikola Vucevic, ORL (83)
79. Jamal Crawford, LAC (77)
80. Eric Gordon, NO (63)
81. Thaddeus Young, PHI (79)
82. J.J. Redick, ORL (89)
83. Tyson Chandler, NY (80)
84. Omer Asik, HOU (84)
85. J.J. Hickson, POR (85)
86. Nene, WSH (81)
87. Jarrett Jack, GS (86)
88. Marcin Gortat, PHO (65)
89. Jose Calderon, DET (93)
90. Amir Johnson, TOR (92)
91. Darren Collison, DAL (88)
92. Manu Ginobili, SA (87)
93. Andre Drummond, DET (90)
94. Kyle Korver, ATL (96)
95. Kawhi Leonard, SA (97)
96. Ramon Sessions, CHA (98)
97. Metta World Peace, LAL (94)
98. Chandler Parsons, HOU (101)
99. DeMar DeRozan, TOR (99)
100. Andrew Bogut, GS (NR)
101. Tiago Splitter, SA (108)
102. Danny Granger, IND (103)
103. Emeka Okafor, WSH (109)
104. Arron Afflalo, ORL (91)
105. Taj Gibson, CHI (NR)
106. Brandon Knight, DET (107)
107. Tyler Zeller, CLE (105)
108. Luis Scola, PHO (104)
109. Carlos Delfino, HOU (102)
110. Jason Terry, BOS (112)
111. Jared Dudley, PHO (113)
112. Derrick Rose, CHI (114)
113. Isaiah Thomas, SAC (116)
114. Gerald Wallace, BKN (106)
115. Andrea Bargnani, TOR (117)
116. Michael Beasley, PHO (NR)
117. Kevin Love, MIN (118)
118. Jerryd Bayless, MEM (NR)
119. Gerald Henderson, CHA (120)
120. Eric Bledsoe, LAC (128)
121. Nate Robinson, CHI (NR)
122. Luke Ridnour, MIN (115)
123. Avery Bradley, BOS (122)
124. Derrick Favors, UTAH (126)
125. Dion Waiters, CLE (111)
126. Andrew Bynum, PHI (129)
127. Shawn Marion, DAL (NR)
128. Vince Carter, DAL (130)
129. Randy Foye, UTAH (NR)
130. Nick Young, PHI (NR)


5.2 -- Assists per game for Kevin Durant in the month of January. We've talked about Durant's improving assist rate before in this space, and this isn't a terribly surprising statistic, but it just goes to show how far Durant has separated himself from the rest of the fantasy pack this season. Remember when we used to debate Durant versus LeBron James for fantasy's top spot? Seems almost silly now when you add Durant's impressive assist totals to his wide edge in free throw shooting (on considerably more FT attempts). I'll gladly take Durant's 29.6 points, 7.4 boards, 4.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.2 blocks and 1.9 3-pointers with 51.6 percent from the floor and 90.4 percent from the line over LeBron's 26.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.9 blocks and 1.3 3-pointers with 54.7 percent from the floor and 73.4 percent from the line.

47.1 -- Kyrie Irving's field goal percentage on the season, which is even more impressive given his 2.0 3-pointers per game. In fact, Irving is the only player in the league who is averaging 2-plus 3-pointers per game while also shooting better than 47 percent from the floor. Irving may not dish out as many assists as his elite point guard counterparts, but he remains a top-10 fantasy play thanks to his big contributions in points, steals, 3-pointers and the percentages.

1.8 -- Steals per game for Dwyane Wade in the month of January. Wade struggled out of the gate early this season, but he really turned up his game in January with 21.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.0 blocks in 13 games. I have to admit, I was pretty worried about Wade earlier in the season, but this recent stretch has calmed my fears and I'm ready to roll with him the rest of the way.

70.1 -- Free throw percentage in 6.1 attempts per game for Blake Griffin in the month of January. Blake has become a much better fantasy player this season thanks to his improved free throw shooting and intensity on the defensive end. His owners may be slightly disappointed with his scoring and rebounding numbers compared to prior seasons, but he's a much more complete fantasy player these days after averaging 19.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.7 steals and 0.8 blocks while shooting 52.1 percent from the floor and 70.1 percent from the line in January.

47.9 -- Ty Lawson's field goal percentage in the month of January after shooting 41 percent for much of the season. Finally living up to his lofty preseason expectations with 17.9 points, 6.4 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.4 3-pointers last month, Lawson appears to have put his early-season shooting woes behind him. It's also no big surprise that the Nuggets are 13-3 since the turn of the calendar with Lawson playing so well.

5.9 -- 3-point field goal attempts per game for Danilo Gallinari in the month of January. We already spoke about Ty Lawson's improved play, but don't overlook the Rooster, who has posted 19.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and 2.5 3-pointers in the same span. Gallinari had a rough time shooting the ball early in the season, but he should be golden the rest of the way now that he's found his touch.

34.4 -- Minutes per game for Suns point guard Goran Dragic since Lindsey Hunter took over the head coaching duties from Alvin Gentry. Dragic, who is averaging 15.1 points, 8.7 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.0 3-pointers since the coaching change, is finally starting to put things together thanks to Hunter's more consistent rotations. I'm not sure if he'll be able to return the third-round value many of us paid for him at the start of the season, but he should be a borderline top-50 player the rest of the way.

7.5 -- 3-point field goal attempts for Orlando Magic shooting guard J.J. Redick in the month of January. Redick has been one of fantasy's best pickups this season, posting 17.5 points and 3.5 3-pointers while shooting 49.7 percent from the floor and 87.5 percent from the line last month. Those numbers were good enough to place him 23rd on our Player Rater during that span, which makes Redick one of the more underrated players in fantasy at the moment. Given that he's shooting 46.7 percent from downtown over the past month, there's definitely a little sell high in Redick, but he should continue to be a big contributor in points, 3-pointers and the percentages the rest of the way.

11.4 -- Rebounds per game for Emeka Okafor, good for sixth in the league in the month of January. After averaging 11.2 points, 11.4 rebounds, 0.8 steals and 1.0 blocks in 27.9 minutes last month, Okafor has been an underrated force in the paint for fantasy owners. Given that the Wizards have been much more competitive with Okafor in the lineup (this also coincides with John Wall's return), we should expect him to remain a factor as a nightly double-double threat for the foreseeable future.

6.4 -- Free throw attempts per game for Ramon Sessions, who shot 88.9 percent from the line with 15.9 points and 0.9 steals per game in January. Sessions has been ultra-aggressive in looking for his shot and taking the ball to the basket for the offensively challenged Bobcats. I wish he would contribute a bit more in 3-pointers and assists, but he should continue to be a solid contributor in points, steals and free throw percentage.

1.9 -- Blocks per game for Taj Gibson in just 23.6 minutes per game in the month of January. I mention Gibson here not only because I'm actually pretty concerned about Joakim Noah's most recent bout with plantar fasciitis, but also because he's always produced big numbers whenever he's seen extended minutes. Gibson is posting 12.8 points, 9.4 rebounds and 2.8 blocks while shooting 57.7 percent from the floor over his past five games, and he'll continue to have big value for as long as either Noah or Carlos Boozer are out of action.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Westbrook's troubles in transition[/h][h=3]Despite reputation, Thunder guard greatly struggles in the transition game[/h]By Joe Kaiser | ESPN Insider

At one point or another, probably not too long ago on a highlight segment, you've seen Russell Westbrook deliver one of his patented coast-to-coast specials.

When it happens, it's something you don't forget.


Usually it starts with a turnover or a defensive rebound, then it picks up steam somewhere near midcourt and by the end of the play the muscular 6-foot-3 point guard is catapulting himself at the rim for another vicious, rim-rocking throwdown.

No other current player -- not even the NBA's other athletic point guards like Derrick Rose, John Wall, Kyrie Irving, Ty Lawson, Rajon Rondo, Eric Bledsoe or even Nate Robinson -- comes close to finishing in the electrifying fashion that Westbrook does on a regular basis.

That's why it's so surprising, then, that a closer look via Synergy Sports Technology reveals a troubling trend: The transition game has consistently been a major weakness for Westbrook, at least whenever he decides to try and take it upon himself to score.

Believe it or not, the transition game is actually far and away the least efficient part of Westbrook's offensive repertoire, and has been since he entered the league back in 2008.
<offer></offer>

<!-- begin inline 1 -->Russell Westbrook's transition offense

Year	Points Per Play	NBA Percentile	Overall NBA Rank
2008-09	0.938	19%	300
2009-10	1.053	31%	257
2010-11	1.077	35%	256
2011-12	1.074	37%	239
2012-13	1.014	29%	238

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<!-- end inline 1 -->
As far as points per play, he's never ranked higher than the 37th percentile of the league during any of his five NBA seasons (see chart on right), and this is a trend that is not getting a whole lot better.

What's more concerning is that the transition game represents where roughly 20 percent of Westbrook's shots have historically come from, per Synergy, which is one reason the 24-year-old is shooting less than 43 percent from the floor in his career and less than 42 percent this season. While Westbrook currently ranks No. 7 in the league in scoring, he has the lowest shooting percentage (41.9) among those in the top 10. Nobody else shoots less than 44 percent.

Here's a look at some of the ways Westbrook can become more efficient in transition.

[h=3]Cut down on turnovers[/h]
According to Synergy, 14.2 percent of Oklahoma City's transition plays this season that involve Westbrook end in turnovers. If you compare that to Irving, Stephen Curry and Tony Parker, the three other point guards averaging at least 20 points a game this season, Westbrook has work to do in this area; Irving is at 12.9 percent, Curry is at 10.5 percent and Parker is at 11 percent.

Westbrook, on the other hand, has finished three of the previous four seasons at more than 15 percent. To make marked improvement in the transition game, Westbrook will have to give himself and the Thunder more chances to score by taking better care of the basketball on the break.

[h=3]Get to the free throw line more often[/h]
Synergy shows that Westbrook is fouled in the act of shooting on 11.8 percent of his plays in transition, a number greater than many point guards, including Curry (6.8 percent), but perhaps not nearly as high as it should be given his ability to blow past defenders and get to the rim.
Consider that Parker gets fouled on 20.9 percent of his plays in transition, and you can see that there's greater room for potential here.

Yes, Westbrook has an all-time great in Kevin Durant to consider much of the time -- and that surely comes into play here -- but there are also times when he pulls up for a long 2-point shot rather than using his strength and quickness to take the ball to the hole. For the record, Westbrook entered last week shooting a career-low 34 percent on shots from the 16-23 feet, per HoopData.com.


[h=3]Become a better shooter off the dribble[/h]
This is one area in which Westbrook still has a lot of room for improvement, and along with limiting turnovers may be the easiest way for him to become better in transition.

More than 32 percent of Westbrook's shots this season are coming off the dribble, many of those presumably in transition, and he has a 0.761 points per possession in those attempts. That ranks in the 56th percentile in the league, making him pretty average in that area.

This so happens to be an area in which the other high-scoring point guards excel. Irving, who is taking roughly 39 percent of his shots off the dribble this season, has a 0.91 PPP that puts him in the 82nd percentile. Curry, who takes nearly 43 percent of his shots off the dribble, has a 0.907 PPP that is right behind Irving and better than 81 percent of the league. Nearly 39 percent of Parker's shot attempts come via the dribble, and his 0.956 PPP puts him in the 87th percentile.

Westbrook is one of the NBA's most electrifying players and a big reason behind OKC's success in recent seasons. Despite his poor shooting numbers this season, his player efficiency rating is still No. 11 in the league. His value to the Thunder can't be underestimated.

That isn't to say that he's a finished product, however, and there are several approaches he can take to make strides in the transition game. The easiest, most immediate change he can make this season as the Thunder make another run at an NBA title is to take fewer jumpers and drive to the basket more often.

The end result could very well be a foul and a trip to the line. Or better yet, another poster in the making.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Sneaky stats to exploit[/h][h=3]Keep eye on star players with subpar effective field goal percentage[/h]By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

Last summer, the NBA's connotation of "poison pill" was ruthlessly highlighted during Jeremy Lin's contract negotiations with the Houston Rockets.

In that world, poison pill means the cruel, Machiavellian insertion of an impossibly expensive year at the tail end of a contract, designed to send James Dolan into a paroxysm of cool jazz apoplexy.

In fantasy, it means something a little different, though it is still Machiavellian.

In fantasy, to use a poison pill means to purposely deal a player to another team who will secretly, negatively, affect other contending teams in the standings. And this is a strategy that can help teams in both head-to-head and rotisserie scoring systems.

There are a couple of ways to employ this maneuver; I'll throw out a quick rotisserie-based variation by way of example.

Let's say you're currently trotting out a lineup featuring Larry Sanders, Serge Ibaka and Josh Smith. You're lapping your league in blocked shots, but this same team is stuck in third place overall.

Let's then say the top of your league's standings in blocked shots looks like this:
Your team (third place): 483
First-place team: 392
Second-place team: 389
Third-place team: 378

The first- and second-place teams are behind you in blocked shots, but you enjoy a comfortable lead in this particular category. So much that you can absorb the loss of Josh Smith, whom you want to deal for backcourt help.

The ninth-place team has a glut of point guards and is happy to offer the services of Mike Conley for Smith. You make the deal, and the ninth-place team shoots ahead of the first- and second-place teams in blocks, taking a point away from each of them in the standings.


(You also make a jump in steals and assists thanks to Conley, win your league and use that positive momentum to repair your marriage, which has withered under the heat of the a long, arduous fantasy basketball season.)

That's one brief, roto-centric example. But there are ways to employ this tactic that can help those of you in either style of league.

The key? Attack the other owners' field goal percentages.

This is a highly specialized, highly effective tactic where one deals high-volume but low-efficiency shooters to opposing squads as a way of submarining their shooting percentage.

(You can do this with free throw percentage as well, but you will effect more dramatic shifts in your league's statistical dynamic with field goal percentage.)

The idea, on the surface, is simple: Trade away players with low field goal percentages to teams that are ahead of or near you in the standings.

But you need to account for two other variables in this equation: the amount of shots a player takes per game and the types of shots the player is attempting.

DeAndre Jordan is top five in the league with a field goal percentage of 61 percent. But he's only attempting 6.2 shots per game. So while he's a net positive for a team's field goal percentage, his low volume of attempts dampens his impact.

On the other hand, Ryan Anderson shoots only 43 percent from the floor. And he shoots 14.1 times per game. At first glance, he's a net negative.


But the savvy owner is factoring in that over half of Anderson's attempts are from behind the 3-point line (7.6 out of 14.1 attempts per game).

And then you have to factor in that Anderson cans an impressive 40 percent of his 3s. So in reality, Anderson's not that poisonous a pill, thanks to his long-range efficiency.

No, what we're looking for are players who miss a high volume of shots while factoring in how many of those misses are coming from downtown.

The volume side is easy; just take a look at attempts per game. When considering poison pills in field goal percentage, the stat I like to couple with attempts is Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%).

Effective Field Goal Percentage was invented by the elder Mike Dunleavy in the '80s as a way of better representing a player's efficiency from the field. It simply factors in the extra point a player records from the 3-point shot.

For you math fans out there, here's the formula: (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA

Or, in English; field goals plus 0.5 times 3-point field goals, divided by field goal attempts.


It's an elegant and effective way to delineate how a player is actually performing from the floor.


When coupled with field goal attempts per game, it gives you a great snapshot of a player's actual impact on your fantasy team's field goal efficiency. And it helps underscore which players would make for the most toxic additions to your opponents' rosters.

1. DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C
Shots Per Game: 14.6
Effective Field Goal Percentage: .447

Cousins

I've been guilty of pushing Cousins on you this season.


I have to admit, watching him get ejected from last night's game against the Utah Jazz provided me with a moment of clarity. I'm starting to believe he's not worth the risk. When he's on, he shows No. 1 center potential ... not a No. 1 center on your team, but in all of fantasy basketball.


Cousins is averaging 17.2 points and 10.0 rebounds this season. Not bad but terribly disappointing when you factor in his upside. Cousins should be a 22-and-12 type of player who can get two steals and a block not to mention a healthy three or so assists per night.

But when he disappears like he has over his past five games (14.4 points, 7.4 rebounds per game), he reminds me about something else: his inefficiency. Cousins shoots an unconscionable (for a big man) 45 percent from the floor. A player with Cousins' low-post skill should be at least 10 points higher than that.


And what really galls me is that he's averaging 0.2 3-point attempts per game. What the heck is he doing behind the 3-point line? Is there something in Byron Mullens' game that Cousins wishes to emulate? Because Mullens also has a terrible eFG% of .428, but at least he's giving you the occasional 3-pointer.

I really am starting to believe it's not going to happen for Cousins in Sacramento, at least not on a consistent basis. He's got a lot of trade value because of the statistical binges he'll go on a couple of weeks a month. I'd wait until he goes on another binge and then deal him for a more stable player.

Note: There are other big men with bad eFG%s, like Tyler Zeller (.410) and Roy Hibbert (.413), but none combines the bad eFG% with a high field goal attempts per game like Cousins.

2. Monta Ellis, PG/SG, Milwaukee Bucks
Shots Per Game: 17.4
Effective Field Goal Percentage: .426

Ellis

Ellis has a lower eFG% than Cousins but stays at No. 2 due to his solid assists, steals and rebounds. Ellis has never been the NBA's most efficient player, but he's hit new lows this season. He's shooting a career-low 25 percent from deep this year and only 40 percent overall.


I thought Scott Skiles' departure might help Ellis' percentages, but he actually dipped in January (while Brandon Jennings has improved). And for those of you in leagues that count turnovers, Ellis is also logging 3.1 fumbles per game, sky-high for a player averaging only 5.5 assists.

3. Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder
Shots Per Game: 18.9
Effective Field Goal Percentage: .455

Westbrook

Settle for a moment. Exhale. How could I possibly advocate dealing a top-10 fantasy player, perhaps the top point guard in all of fantasy? It's certifiable on the surface.

Because Westbrook, for all of his prodigious gifts, is a field goal percentage restrictor plate. A player averaging nearly 19 shots per game is going to define your team's performance from the field. And when that player has an eFG% below 46 percent, and an overall field goal percentage of 42 percent, it makes it hard to compete in that category.

When you combine Westbrook's massive trade appeal with his inefficient percentages from the field, you have the makings of a great poison pill. You have to make sure you're getting good -- no, make that great -- trade value for him. But you will, because he's Russell Westbrook.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Player Rater: Potential trade targets[/h][h=3]Some well-rounded players not as great fantasy options as you might expect[/h]By Seth Landman | Special to ESPN.com

Throughout the entire Player Rater (if we rank by per-game averages), there are only four players who don't carry a single negative in any category as of Wednesday morning: Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Andrei Kirilenko and Kyle Korver. When you think about it, this is an arbitrary -- but staggering -- accomplishment. These guys might not be great at everything (actually Kevin Durant kind of is, actually, great at everything), but they manage to avoid being bad at anything, and in most fantasy leagues, that ends up having some value.

When you consider how the Player Rater works, it makes sense: Durant is a significant margin better than LeBron James in fantasy leagues this year even though each guy bests the other in exactly four of the eight categories. That's because LeBron doesn't have much separation from Durant in many of the categories where he's better, while Durant is absolutely demolishing LeBron in free throw shooting. If you're not giving up a negative anywhere, it's pretty easy to carry lots of value.

Melo, like Durant, has been an elite fantasy player this year. He happens to be posting a positive value in every category, but not at the expense of his usual strongholds: scoring and free throw percentage. Anthony is averaging 28.4 points per game right now, which is just 0.5 below his career high; he's doing that while making more 3-pointers than he ever has, and he's kicking in some pretty impressive free throw shooting as well. Most impressively, he's boosted his field goal percentage -- his one negative category from last season -- to a slight positive. The point is that Anthony is as well-rounded as he's ever been, but he's still capable of carrying you in a couple of individual categories (this season, points and 3s).


Kirilenko, however, is a different case. Yes, it's fantastic that he provides positive value in every category across the board, but in his case, that value is mitigated by the fact that he doesn't really put up huge numbers in any one particular category. In fact, steals is the only category where Kirilenko's Player Rater value is better than 1.5 (standard deviations better than the league average). Kirilenko is a top-30 player so far this season on a per-game basis, but no other player in the top 30 has a lower value in his best category.

Korver presents a different case. It's amazing that he's not carrying any negatives this season, but he's still only really contributing in a major way in one category: 3s. He's making 2.9 3s per game, good for third in the league. However, the rest of his stats, though slight positives all around, are pretty uninspiring. Unless you need his 3-point shooting, I'm pretty sure you wouldn't miss him if he was gone. If you own him, chances are you're doing pretty well in 3s so far, and you might even be able to spare him. For example, Andre Iguodala has been pretty disappointing this season, so if you offer Korver for him, you might actually get a taker. Iguodala has been worse overall on the Player Rater but is better than Korver in five categories and certainly has the potential to be much better than he's been. If you're desperate, that's a chance worth taking.

Noticing all of this got me thinking, because we're nearing the trading deadline, and it's getting to be time to really think about how you can maximize the value of your roster for the rest of the season. Players like Kirilenko are great in rotisserie leagues, because their value is subtle and has a chance to play itself out in meaningful ways over an entire season. However, once you have a sense of where your roster has strengths and weaknesses, you might find you need to gravitate toward players who can really move the needle in particular areas. Kirilenko might be a top-30 fantasy player in terms of value, but there's a decent chance that this late in the season, there are players ranked far below him on the Player Rater who might be more valuable in the context of your specific team.

What follows is a list of some players in the top 100 on the Player Rater who just missed the cut for having positive values in every category. With the exception of the first player on the list, they are all ranked below Kirilenko on the Player Rater, and they constitute a selection of players you might want to consider trading in order to acquire players who could help you more in your own particular areas of need.


(Player Rater ranking based on per game averages in parentheses)

Irving

Kyrie Irving, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers (7): If you're in a keeper league of any kind, obviously, you're not even thinking about moving Irving. Otherwise, you may want to give it some thought. He has a ton of value, and his negatives are in blocks and rebounds (pretty normal, in other words, for a point guard). Trading him would depend on figuring out what you need. If you need blocks, would it be worth trying to deal him for Marc Gasol? If you need rebounds, what about David Lee? These guys could both approximate a great deal of Irving's value in assists while helping you out in areas where you might need it. These are the kinds of deals you need to think about at this point in the season.

Holiday

Jrue Holiday, PG, Philadelphia 76ers (14): Holiday has, without question, been an elite player this season, so I'm certainly not advocating trading him in a vacuum. His worst category is blocks, where his 0.4 average per game isn't quite enough to put him into the positives on the Player Rater. Still, he carries nearly all his value in two categories: assists and points. He rebounds well for a point guard, but if you find yourself doing well in the traditional stats (points, rebounds and assists), you could probably do pretty well dealing Holiday for someone who might be able to help you more in steals, 3s, or the percentages. If you could trade Holiday for Mike Conley and pick up another asset in addition, you might be able to hold your ground in assists and points while picking up some value in steals and 3s.

Hill

George Hill, PG/SG, Indiana Pacers (54): Hill is a very slight negative in field goal percentage and blocks, both of which are usually bigger negative areas for point guards. Unfortunately, Hill's strength as a basketball player (he's not bad at anything, really) is his weakness as a fantasy player (he's not great at anything, really). His best category is assists, but at 4.9 per game as the starting point guard on a really good team, he's not doing anything to get all that excited about. Oklahoma City Thunder sixth man Kevin Martin is 13 spots lower than Hill on the Player Rater, but he's actually better than Hill in five of the eight categories. If you can afford the somewhat significant hit in assists, a player like Martin might wind up helping your team more than Hill would.

Evans

Tyreke Evans, PG/SG/SF, Sacramento Kings (75): Tyreke still isn't showing the flashes of brilliance he managed as a rookie, but has been a reasonably productive player of late, averaging 17.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.0 steals over his past five games. Of course, I'm cherry-picking. He's shooting 22 percent on 3s over that stretch and is 69 percent from the line on 6.4 attempts per game. Those numbers are ugly, and they're probably not going to magically get better any time soon. Still, overall, making 3s is the only area that could genuinely be counted as a negative for Tyreke, and that's only a slight one. Dealing him for Raymond Felton could get you some assists and some 3s. DeMar DeRozan could get you a little extra scoring and free throw percentage. The point, as always, is that you have options.

 

[HacheMan]

Pau Gasol injures foot

By Neil Tardy, Special to ESPN.com

Borrowing from Brian McKitish's routine, here are some noteworthy numbers from Tuesday:

• 35: Points by Samuel Dalembert against the Denver Nuggets. Yes, you early-to-bed East Coast folks, Samuel Dalembert went for 35 points last night.

• 23: Number of 3-pointers made by the Houston Rockets against the Golden State Warriors. This ties the NBA single-game record.

• 2: The number of crutches Pau Gasol used to leave the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.

Gasol strained the plantar fascia in his already-injured right foot late in the Los Angeles Lakers' win over the Brooklyn Nets. When he tried to block a Brook Lopez shot in the fourth quarter, Gasol said he heard a "pop" in the bottom of his foot. As bad as that sounds, just read this. Incidentally, this piece also notes that Dwight Howard refuses to discuss his availability for the Lakers' Thursday matchup with the Boston Celtics.

And that would be your cue to check your league's free-agent list for Earl Clark (14 points, 12 rebounds versus the Nets) and Antawn Jamison.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]TUESDAY, FEB. 5[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Samuel Dalembert, Bucks: 35 points (17-21 FG), 12 rebounds versus Nuggets
Jeremy Lin, Rockets: 28 points (10-16 FG), 9 assists, 5 3-pointers versus Warriors
Brook Lopez, Nets: 30 points (8-10 FT), 11 rebounds, 3 blocks versus Lakers
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Marc Gasol, Grizzlies: 6 points (2-8 FG), 3 rebounds, 4 turnovers versus Suns (fouled out in 23 minutes)
Ersan Ilyasova, Bucks: 6 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists versus Nuggets
Klay Thompson, Warriors: 6 points versus Rockets (only third game this season without a 3-pointer)



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• As expected, Tayshaun Prince took his place as the Memphis Grizzlies' starting small forward on Tuesday. But perhaps I've underestimated Jerryd Bayless, who came off the bench with 29 points in 29 minutes against the Phoenix Suns. After going 11-of-15 on Tuesday, Bayless is shooting 52.8 percent (38-of-72) over his past five games. Bayless naturally won't keep shooting this well, and if he's playing 30 minutes instead of the 36-38 he was logging in his recent starts, his stats will slip accordingly. However, he seems well worth adding in most formats.

• Back to Dalembert for a moment. He made 17-of-21 shots against the Nuggets, and was an incredible 14-of-15 through three quarters. He also finished with 12 rebounds, two assists and a block. And Dalembert did all this in just 27 minutes.

As amazing as Dalembert's performance was, keep in mind that prior to Tuesday the veteran was averaging 5.7 points this season, and had played 19 minutes total in the Milwaukee Bucks' previous two games. Barring a long-term injury to Larry Sanders -- who did take a hard fall late in Tuesday's game but seemed to escape serious harm -- Dalembert still has no fantasy value.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Sanders collided with a hard-charging Kenneth Faried, getting a blocking foul for his trouble. According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, X-rays didn't show any damage to his hip, but Sanders will undergo additional evaluations on Wednesday. With the Bucks facing the Utah Jazz tonight, you'll want to check for updates on Sanders.

• After missing 26 games with elbow and wrist problems, Andrea Bargnani is expected to play when the Toronto Raptors host the Boston Celtics. Expect Bargs to come off the bench and play limited minutes for now.

• With Thaddeus Young (hamstring) expected to miss three weeks, Lavoy Allen could gain fantasy relevance in the near term. When Young left Monday's game with the Orlando Magic, Allen stepped in with 10 points and three blocks in 30 minutes. The Philadelphia 76ers host the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday.

• A quick list of players who are iffy for Wednesday: Blake Griffin (hamstring), Tim Duncan (ankle, knee), Arron Afflalo (calf), J.J. Redick (shoulder) and Jameer Nelson (forearm).

• With the Warriors playing for the second straight night, Andrew Bogut (ankle) will likely be rested.

 

[HacheMan]

Second chances for some free agents

By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

On the outskirts of fantasy relevance dwells a group of players who are continually added and dropped throughout the season based upon their intermittently palatable production. Most of these players have already been identified in this column at some point this season. And though I typically hesitate to repeatedly feature players because I don't want to be redundant when analyzing their fantasy faculties, these guys are worth a second (or third, or fourth) look.
This week I'm going to highlight several players once again worth considering, as it's important to remain current with statistical trends and have a keen focus on who is most worthy of that final roster spot as you assemble team depth and balance.

Lopez

Robin Lopez, C, New Orleans Hornets (34.7 percent owned): Lopez was widely dropped after a disappointing January in which he averaged just 9.7 points, 5.1 rebounds and 0.9 blocks in 24.1 minutes per game. But he still ranks 55th on the Player Rater for the season and has turned it up in his past five games, averaging 14.2 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.8 blocks while scoring in double digits in five straight after failing to do so in each of the five previous contests. His efficiency has skyrocketed this year to a 20.27 Player Efficiency Rating (PER), good for 28th in the league, which is buoyed by his 72.9 percent shooting on 4.1 attempts at the rim, both career highs. Anytime a player's spike in field goal percentage is largely due to moving his game closer to the basket, it's encouraging. There's some crowding in the Hornets' frontcourt with Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson and Jason Smith sopping up minutes, but Lopez continues to be productive, especially for teams in need of blocks and field goal percentage. If he was dropped in your league, swoop him up. Despite the seemingly unexciting numbers, he should be a top-20 center going forward.

Favors

Derrick Favors, PF/C, Utah Jazz (32.9 percent owned): Favors already posts worthwhile fantasy stats, averaging 6.3 rebounds, 1.4 blocks and 0.9 steals in just 21.8 minutes per game. But with trade rumors constantly swirling around Utah's quartet of capable bigs, his value will almost certainly increase after the Feb. 21 trade deadline. Regardless of your league size or roster makeup, he's universally worth owning due to his nearly unmatched potential to be a lottery ticket after the deadline. Despite playing the same amount as last season, he's posting career bests in points, steals, blocks, free throw percentage and PER. Furthermore, Favors ranks in the top 30 overall in boards and blocks per-48 minutes, and is the eighth-ranked power forward in steals per-48 minutes. Aside from quantifiable assessments, however, the amalgam of size and athleticism he possesses is simply staggering. He's ready to bust out. When he does, you'll be giddy if it's on your team, as he'll almost surely average a double-double with over a steal and a block per game with starter's minutes.

Mullens

Byron Mullens, C, Charlotte Bobcats (24.2 percent owned): He's back after missing 19 games with an injured ankle and has immediately returned to his recently-found level of fantasy relevance, averaging 13.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.5 3s, 1.0 blocks and 1.0 steals per game in two contests since returning. Mullens fills atypical categories from the center position, and his combination of rebounds and 3s is nearly-unmatched. Of the 39 players averaging at least 7.5 rebounds per game, Mullens is one of five with at least 1.4 3s per game, and only Paul George has more. His field goal percentage is problematic due to his propensity to shoot jumpers, but if you need a unique blend of 3-point shooting with rebounds, steals, and blocks, Mullens is worth a roster spot in every format.

Dunleavy

Mike Dunleavy, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks (20.5 percent owned): He just topped off his best scoring month since last March, averaging 11.7 points, 2.1 3s, 0.6 blocks and 0.5 steals per game in January, and he has been doing it with consistency, notching double digits in 11 of the past 12 contests. Dunleavy's 60.8 true shooting percentage is a career high as he has been lights out from downtown, averaging 1.9 3s per game this season on 44.8 percent shooting from behind the arc. His 4.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.6 steals and 0.5 blocks per game provide just enough ancillary production to make him more than just a 3-point specialist. There's not huge upside here, but not much downside either, as Dunleavy is a dependable source of points and 3s.

Webster

Martell Webster, SF, Washington Wizards (15.4 percent owned): I like Webster for reasons irrelevant to fantasy hoops. He's from my home state. You can type his last name with one hand. However, I've historically disliked him in a fantasy sense due to his inability to contribute in any category other than 3-pointers, and for his career 41.7 percent mark from the floor. Well, he's coming off his best statistical month since April 2011, averaging 12.2 points, 1.8 3s and 0.8 steals per game in January. It's easy to forget he's just 26 and still developing as a basketball player, evidenced by his 13.21 PER, 60.3 true shooting percentage and 1.9 attempts at the rim, all career-highs. He's scored at least 13 points in eight of his past 10 contests, and is averaging 15.4 points and 3.6 3s per game in his past five. He also played 42 minutes Wednesday night, his second highest total this season. Webster is a member of both of the Wizards' best 5-man units in plus/minus according to 82games.com, and has jelled with John Wall, indications that his solid playing time will continue.

Singler

Kyle Singler, SG/SF, Detroit Pistons (8.3 percent owned): The trade that jettisoned Tayshaun Prince and Austin Daye for Jose Calderon opened opportunities for Singler, and he responded with a career-high 20 points on Friday and is now playing his natural position of small forward. My favorite part about Singler's game is that 64.4 percent of his shots come either at the rim or from behind the arc, a recipe for fantasy success. My second-favorite part is the 0.5 blocks, 0.7 steals and 0.9 3s per game in 28 minutes, indication he can make up for his low assist and rebound numbers with nice combination of steals, blocks and 3s. Singler has seemingly earned Lawrence Frank's trust on the defensive end, given his 32 minutes per game in his past five contests, a span in which he's averaging 1.2 3s, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks per game.

Butler

Caron Butler, SF, Los Angeles Clippers (8.1 percent owned): With the Clippers' bench, you have to ride the hot hand, as Jamal Crawford, Matt Barnes, Lamar Odom and Butler are all capable fantasy contributors when on their game. Butler has been the best of the bunch recently, averaging 14.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.8 3s and 1.0 steals per game over the past five contests. As his game has drifted to the perimeter, his steal rate, rebounding rate and PER have all trended downward, but he's averaging a career-high 1.5 3s on a career-low 1.0 turnover per game. As I said, ride the hot hand here; don't expect him to continue averaging 15-plus points per game, but while he is he's worthy of a temporary roster spot for teams in need of 3s.

Harkless

Moe Harkless, SF, Orlando Magic (0.9 percent owned): Thanks to the fellas at The Basketball Jones, I'll forever associate him with 808's and Heartbreaks ("How Could You Be Moe Harkless?"). In one year at St. John's, Harkless averaged 15.5 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.6 steals, 1.4 blocks and 0.5 3s per game, drool-inducing fantasy statistics. With Glen Davis out for the rest of the season, Harkless' minutes and production have skyrocketed, as he's averaging 10.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.3 steals and 1.0 blocks in 38.5 minutes per game in his past four contests. With his statistical skill set, impressive numbers should fall into place if he's getting starter's minutes. He especially has value with his steal/blocks combination (0.7 steals and 0.8 blocks per game in just 18.3 minutes leads me to believe he could be over one per game in each category with increased PT) and rebounding from the small forward position. His 9.7 rebounds per-48 minutes ranks 11th among small forwards, and as the Magic evaluate what they have going forward, he should see plenty of run and get opportunities to flash his propensity to contribute in multiple categories.

 

[HacheMan]

How Gasol's injury affects Lakers

By Nick Borges | ESPN.com


UPDATE: The Lakers have indeed lost Pau Gasol due to tear in the plantar fascia of his right foot and he's expected to miss four to six weeks, according to ESPNLosAngeles.com. It will be longer if he opts for surgery.
<offer>
The Lakers have been reluctant to fill the 15th roster position due to their high tax bill, however the long-term injury to Gasol and Dwight Howard's bad shoulder may force them to sign a big man to a 10-day contract. They also have a $1.78 million exception which can be used to acquire a player via free agency or a trade.

</offer><center> ---- </center>Pau Gasol has been dealing with a sore right foot for a while and Tuesday he left the Barclays Center on crutches after straining the plantar fascia. Gasol admitted after the game that he is worried. Gasol will have an MRI on Wednesday to determine the extent of the injury.

"I've been dealing with it for a couple months now," Gasol told ESPNLosAngeles.com. "But I never felt anything like I did tonight. Right now it's a certain level of strain. We just don't know how bad it is."

The Lakers will likely be without Gasol and Dwight Howard when they play Boston on Thursday. Head coach Mike D'Antoni could starter rookie Robert Sacre at center, or he could shift Earl Clark into the spot and play veteran Antawn Jamison with the first unit at power forward.

 

[HacheMan]

Buy-low points-league options

By Tom Carpenter | ESPN.com

Last week, we set our Fastbreak lineups for the final two weeks leading up to the All-Star break, which means we currently are in a one-week hiatus. I'll be back next Friday with lineup suggestions for the first week of Segment 2, but in the meantime, let's talk about some players I see as quality buy-low candidates in points leagues. Most of the players I list carry plenty of upside in any format, but most of these guys should be particularly helpful in points leagues due to quality percentages.

Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks: I like Horford going forward for two reasons. First, he's just a terrific points-league big man. Sure, he only blocks about one shot per game, but he is shooting 53.6 from the floor this season and is averaging a solid 13.3 attempts per game. That brings me to the second reason I like his upside for the remainder of the season: If Josh Smith is traded, it likely won't be for a prolific scorer, which means Horford likely would end up attempting even more shots per game. Horford doesn't get much love on the Player Rater (59th based on averages), but that's because he doesn't contribute hustle stats and his free throw percentage is way off this season. But in points leagues, the guy is a beast with even more upside in the second half of the season.

Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat: There are inherent risks in adding Wade to your roster -- he is aging and prone to injury. However, if you need to take a risk to win your league, Wade makes for an excellent guy to target. He is only 35th on the Player Rater based on averages, but we know that when he is hot, he has top-10 upside. I think we will see him post a couple of weeks' worth of stats during the stretch run where he is up in that echelon. The Heat have been babying him early this season to get him wound up for their late-season run to the playoffs, but they've already been increasing his workload on offense, as his field goal attempts per game have risen each month this season. And at 50-plus percent from the field, Wade still carries tremendous points-league upside.

Amar'e Stoudemire, New York Knicks: STAT has never been much of a rebounder, dimer or hustle-stat producer, which means nearly all of his fantasy value comes via his percentages. But those carry little weight when he doesn't take enough of them, which is an obvious concern for a guy who is coming off the bench. However, we have seen a healthy uptick in shot attempts from both the field and the free-throw line recently. In fact, he has averaged 11.3 field goal attempts and 5.5 free throw attempts in the four games he has played this month, and the impact of those percentages has been huge, because he has hit 64.4 percent from the field and 86.4 percent from the stripe. Because you can get him cheap due to his health concerns and bench role, he makes for an excellent roll-the-dice option in points leagues going forward, even in his reserve role.

Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets: Any shot you may have had to buy low on the Manimal likely went out the window Thursday, when he torched the Chicago Bulls for 21 points (9-10 FG), 12 boards and 2 steals. Still, his upside in points leagues makes him worth a good investment anyway. Not only is he a daily double-double threat who chips in hustle stats, but he is averaging a sparkling 55.8 percent from the floor on the season. He has also improved his free throw percentage to over 70 percent the past month-plus and has knocked down more than 60 percent of his field goals over that stretch. Expect a big finish from Faried.


Anthony Davis, New Orleans Hornets: After Davis' body gave out on him early this season, the Hornets cut back his minutes significantly. Specifically, after averaging nearly 34 mpg in December, the big fella averaged just 25 mpg in January. But they can't keep this kid under wraps all season, so don't forget that he averaged 14.0 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.2 spg and 1.8 bpg in December. That sort of clear upside, combined with a field goal percentage that should push well into the fifties, makes him an excellent buy-low candidate.

Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons: These big men haven't lived up to the high expectations some of us had for them this season; Monroe struggled with his shot in December (44.9 percent from the field), and coach Lawrence Frank has been babying his prized rookie. However, Monroe found his shot last month (52.7 percent from the field), and I've said in various forums for weeks that I expect Drummond to start soon after the All-Star break. There is an added bonus, though, with the arrival of Jose Calderon. He is one of the premiere pick-and-roll PGs in the Association, and that should help both Monroe and Drummond finish the season on a strong note.

Ersan Ilyasova, Milwaukee Bucks: Ilyasova's production picked up after Scotty Skiles left town, but he has remained inconsistent, which should keep his trade value limited. However, he finished last season on a very strong stride, and I think there is a reasonable chance that he does so once again this season. Don't forget the excellent points-league production we saw from him after the break last season: 16.1 ppg. 9.1 rpg, 1.1 3-ppg, 0.8 bpg, 55.2 field goal percentage (11 attempts) and 79.6 field goal percentage (3.5 attempts).

Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors: Well, he is actually playing again, so, technically, his fantasy value has risen ever so slightly. Nonetheless, this season has been an epic disaster for Bargs due to his horrible production combined with major injury issues. I like him as a buy-low candidate anyway, because it's hard to imagine things getting worse for him in fantasy terms, regardless of whether he is traded. The caveat to that statement is that you need to acquire him at his current semi-useless value from an owner who just wants to get rid of the headache he has provided all season long. You do not want to pay for what he did in previous years when he was actually healthy.


DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors: We can't get too excited about DeRozan in fantasy terms, especially in roto leagues, because he does so little besides score; basically no 3s, combined with light rebounds, assists and steals. However, he appears set as a starter who chucks up a lot of shots (15.0 per game this season), and that is enough in its own right to warrant using him to round out your starting lineup. He also is averaging 83.2 percent from the line with 4.9 attempts per game this season. If he can boost his field goal percentage up from 43.5 percent toward 45-46 percent -- it's possible, as he averaged better than 46 percent his first two seasons -- he could have an even bigger points-league impact.

Isaiah Thomas, Sacramento Kings: It took coach Keith Smart half of a season to finally realize what most of us knew going into the season: Aaron Brooks isn't that good. Now, Smart finally seems to be committed to using Thomas and Jimmer Fredette at the point, pushing Brooks out of the rotation. It's one step closer to turning Thomas loose. All you need to do is look at his second-half splits from last season to know that his upside remains excellent for the second half of this campaign. In fact, he's owned in just 41.1 percent of ESPN leagues. You can probably just go pick him up off waivers as a high-upside roster stash.

Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs: Like Thomas, Leonard can be added in many leagues (owned in just 62.7 percent of ESPN leagues), but he also makes for a quality toss-in on a bigger trade deal. His game-to-game production has been inconsistent this season, mostly because coach Gregg Popovich likes to mix and match his rotation and touches based on whom they play each night. Still, we are talking about a guard who has hit 48.9 percent of his shots from the field this season. Plus, he chips in impressive rebounding for a guard (5.5 rpg), excellent steals (1.8 spg) and some 3s (1.3 3-ppg). Even in his uncertain role right now, he will help all points-league teams. He has genuine breakout potential if things click

 

[HacheMan]

Post-break buy, sell options

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com

With All-Star weekend only a few days away, fantasy owners will get a much-needed break to take a step back, analyze their rosters and make any adjustments required for the remainder of the season. The four-day break gives us an opportunity to evaluate our rosters, and brainstorm trade ideas to prepare for the stretch run. To help, I've compiled a list of post-All-Star break buy and sell candidates:

[h=3]The Top 130[/h]"Note: Brian McKitish's top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2012-13 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses."1. Kevin Durant, OKC (1)
2. LeBron James, MIA (2)
3. Russell Westbrook, OKC (3)
4. James Harden, HOU (4)
5. Kyrie Irving, CLE (5)
6. Chris Paul, LAC (9)
7. Stephen Curry, GS (6)
8. Nicolas Batum, POR (7)
9. Kobe Bryant, LAL (8)
10. Carmelo Anthony, NY (10)
11. Serge Ibaka, OKC (11)
12. Paul George, IND (13)
13. Dwyane Wade, MIA (14)
14. Marc Gasol, MEM (12)
15. Jrue Holiday, PHI (15)
16. Josh Smith, ATL (18)
17. Brandon Jennings, MIL (17)
18. Brook Lopez, BKN (22)
19. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR (19)
20. David Lee, GS (20)
21. Rudy Gay, TOR (30)
22. Damian Lillard, POR (21)
23. Deron Williams, BKN (16)
24. Paul Pierce, BOS (28)
25. Al Jefferson, UTAH (24)
26. Greg Monroe, DET (25)
27. Ty Lawson, DEN (26)
28. Tony Parker, SA (36)
29. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (23)
30. Blake Griffin, LAC (29)
31. John Wall, WSH (33)
32. Greivis Vasquez, NO (37)
33. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (32)
34. Mike Conley, MEM (34)
35. Jeff Teague, ATL (59)
36. Anthony Davis, NO (31)
37. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (40)
38. Kemba Walker, CHA (27)
39. Danilo Gallinari, DEN (50)
40. Zach Randolph, MEM (35)
41. Ryan Anderson, NO (38)
42. Al Horford, ATL (39)
43. J.R. Smith, NY (51)
44. Chris Bosh, MIA (42)
45. Joakim Noah, CHI (52)
46. Larry Sanders, MIL (44)
47. Kyle Lowry, TOR (45)
48. Klay Thompson, GS (47)
49. Kevin Garnett, BOS (62)
50. Ricky Rubio, MIN (75)
51. George Hill, IND (54)
52. Kenneth Faried, DEN (65)
53. Jameer Nelson, ORL (56)
54. Tim Duncan, SA (49)
55. Nikola Vucevic, ORL (78)
56. Jose Calderon, DET (89)
57. Steve Nash, LAL (57)
58. Wesley Matthews, POR (46)
59. Monta Ellis, MIL (43)
60. Goran Dragic, PHO (53)
61. Andre Iguodala, DEN (58)
62. Paul Millsap, UTAH (60)
63. O.J. Mayo, DAL (61)
64. Luol Deng, CHI (55)
65. Amare Stoudemire, NY (67)
66. Andrei Kirilenko, MIN (48)
67. Dwight Howard, LAL (41)
68. Nikola Pekovic, MIN (64)
69. Roy Hibbert, IND (66)
70. Tyreke Evans, SAC (70)
71. Jeremy Lin, HOU (73)
72. David West, IND (77)
73. Kevin Martin, OKC (71)
74. Tyson Chandler, NY (83)
75. Carlos Boozer, CHI (68)
76. Omer Asik, HOU (84)
77. Tristan Thompson, CLE (72)
78. Jamal Crawford, LAC (79)
79. Raymond Felton, NY (74)
80. Derrick Rose, CHI (112)
81. Joe Johnson, BKN (69)
82. Nene Hilario, WSH (86)
83. J.J. Redick, ORL (82)
84. J.J. Hickson, POR (85)
85. Amir Johnson, TOR (90)
86. Kyle Korver, ATL (94)
87. Kawhi Leonard, SA (95)
88. Evan Turner, PHI (76)
89. Jarrett Jack, GS (87)
90. Marcin Gortat, PHO (88)
91. Darren Collison, DAL (91)
92. Eric Gordon, NO (80)
93. Chandler Parsons, HOU (98)
94. Ramon Sessions, CHA (96)
95. Andrew Bogut, GS (100)
96. DeMar DeRozan, TOR (99)
97. Jerryd Bayless, MEM (118)
98. Tiago Splitter, SA (101)
99. Danny Granger, IND (102)
100. Manu Ginobili, SA (92)
101. Arron Afflalo, ORL (104)
102. Andrea Bargnani, TOR (115)
103. Earl Clark, LAL (NR)
104. Shawn Marion, DAL (127)
105. Isaiah Thomas, SAC (113)
106. Byron Mullens, CHA (NR)
107. Metta World Peace, LAL (97)
108. Emeka Okafor, WSH (103)
109. Jason Terry, BOS (110)
110. Michael Beasley, PHO (116)
111. Nate Robinson, CHI (121)
112. Kevin Love, MIN (117)
113. Taj Gibson, CHI (105)
114. Derrick Favors, UTAH (124)
115. Randy Foye, UTAH (129)
116. Brandon Knight, DET (106)
117. Robin Lopez, NO (NR)
118. Bradley Beal, WSH (NR)
119. Thaddeus Young, PHI (81)
120. Gerald Henderson, CHA (119)
121. Luis Scola, PHO (108)
122. Gerald Wallace, BKN (114)
123. Dion Waiters, CLE (125)
124. Patrick Patterson, HOU (NR)
125. Eric Bledsoe, LAC (120)
126. Vince Carter, DAL (128)
127. Daniel Green, SA (NR)
128. Samuel Dalembert, MIL (NR)
129. JaVale McGee, DEN (NR)
130. Andrew Bynum, PHI (126)


[h=3]Post All-Star-Break Buy Candidates[/h]
Many of us remember Kyle Lowry's hot start, but almost all of the early-season optimism surrounding him faded after he found himself stuck in a timeshare with Jose Calderon when he returned from various injuries. That optimism returned briefly immediately following the Rudy Gay trade that sent Calderon to Detroit, but Lowry has failed to put up the same numbers that made him such a highly valued commodity early in the season. With 9.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 1.2 steals over his past 10 contests, Lowry's owners may be feeling a bit frustrated at the moment, which makes this a perfect buy-low opportunity in the market. His minutes have bumped up into the 33-34 per game range with Calderon out of town, and his production should follow suit in the very near future.

I've probably been a little too high on Anthony Davis for most of the season, but despite his recent struggles, I still think he's a terrific buy-low option with breakout potential after the All-Star break. Averaging 11.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 1.6 blocks in just 25.4 minutes over his past 10 games, Davis simply isn't getting enough minutes to maximize his full fantasy potential. But his efficiency and per-minute numbers are still off the charts, and with a 17-33 record, the New Orleans Hornets would be silly not to give him a big bump in playing time as the season winds down. Of course, I can't control how many minutes head coach Monty Williams gives to the rookie, but I can tell you that he would be a top-20 fantasy talent if he were able to secure 33-35 minutes per night.

The window to buy low on Ricky Rubio may have closed after he blew up for 13.6 points, 9.4 assists and 1.2 steals over his past five games, but he should still be mentioned here as a trade target as it appears that he is finally fully recovered from last season's knee injury. Rubio is far from a perfect fantasy player, but like Rajon Rondo before him, we will gladly deal with his imperfections to secure his dominant assists and steal numbers.

Speculative pickups or trades based on trade rumors can be risky, but Derrick Favors is just the type of high-upside player who could pay huge dividends if the Utah Jazz were to enter the trade market with any of their highly coveted big men. The nice thing about adding Favors is that he's already fairly useful in most fantasy formats with 9.0 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.4 blocks in just 24.0 minutes over his past five games. With fantastic per-minute numbers like that, Favors is sure to be a star if either Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap were to be traded.

I've heard a lot of questions recently about Paul George's value after Danny Granger's return, which makes me think there's a small window of opportunity to deal for George at a discounted price. There's no doubt that a healthy Granger would cut into George's production a little bit, but this is George's team now, and he should continue to be a top-15 fantasy player the rest of the way. David West is the player most likely to be impacted by Granger's return, and he becomes a nice sell-high candidate after posting 23.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 1.4 blocks over his past five games.

It wasn't all that long ago that Bradley Beal posted 15.1 points, 0.9 steals and 2.1 3-pointers in 32.9 minutes per game during January, and that's why it's surprising to see that he's owned in only 22.6 percent of ESPN.com leagues. Yes, I realize that he's been injured, but the 14-35 Washington Wizards are almost certainly going to let him loose alongside John Wall in the backcourt after the All-Star break.

[h=3]Post All-Star-Break Sell Candidates[/h]
I mentioned this last week, but it's worth repeating that I'm extremely worried about Joakim Noah's plantar fasciitis injury. It's not just the fact that this is an injury that typically lingers (especially for big men); it's also because we've already seen this story play out with Noah in previous seasons. Take a look at his pre-/post-All-Star splits for both the 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons. In both cases, he came out of the gates hot, suffered a midseason injury and finished poorly as he tried to grind it out through an injury. It should also be noted that a similar plantar fasciitis injury derailed his 2009-10 season. Noah managed to play through the pain on Friday to post 12 points, 11 boards and 3 steals, but admitted that his foot was bothering him after the game. His owners should use Friday night's success in trade negotiations to move Noah before the injury cuts into his fantasy value.

I'm as excited as the next person to see Derrick Rose back on the court, and his return will undoubtedly make the Chicago Bulls a dangerous playoff team in the Eastern Conference, but I'm afraid that he may not be the fantasy savior many of us are hoping for. Rose certainly has the talent to be the fantasy hoops version of Adrian Peterson, but it's more likely that he'll be eased back into action as the Bulls will want to ensure that he's 100 percent healthy for their playoff run. For now I have him ranked 80th overall, but let's be honest: There are a lot of different ways this could play out. He could be a top-15 or -20 player if he's fully recovered, or he could be waiver-wire material if he's on a minute limit and sitting out the second game of back-to-backs. I think what I'm trying to say is this: Rose is a fine pickup at this point in the season, but if you can find someone who's willing to give you top-50 value for his services, you should do it without hesitation.

I've been wrong about Tim Duncan almost all season, and maybe I'm being stubborn, but I'm sticking to my guns, especially now that he's dealing with a knee injury. Duncan has been fantasy's eighth-best player on our Player Rater when sorted by averages, but I've had him ranked considerably lower in the rankings, mostly because history tells me that Gregg Popovich will cut his minutes after the All-Star break. This should be particularly true given Duncan's recent knee injury. His owners should look to sell for a top-50 player following his return.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]James Harden's rising star power[/h][h=3]Houston guard has become a franchise player who ranks among NBA's elite[/h]By Joe Kaiser | ESPN Insider
Let's get hypothetical for a second. Your team is down by one point with 15 seconds to play in a decisive Game 7. The home crowd sits nervously in stunned silence. As the coach, you call a timeout and draw up a play to get the ball in the hands of the one player who can hit the game-winning shot.

If you could choose any current player, who would it be?


Do you turn to Kobe Bryant? Or do you get the ball in the hands of LeBron James? Is Kevin Durant your guy? And what about Carmelo Anthony? A strong argument could be made for each of them. Now, pretend for a second that none of those guys are available. Who then would you depend on with the game on the line?

As hard as it might have been to believe a year or two ago, there may not be a better answer to that question than James Harden (no, we didn't forget about Dwyane Wade, Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce). The point is, this should illustrate just how good Harden's been in his first season with the Houston Rockets.

Earlier this season, Trendwatch pointed out that Harden's transformation into a "go-to" guy followed his trend of constantly attacking, which has allowed him to get to the free throw line, a trademark of any player whose team relies on him to produce a bulk of the scoring.

But it isn't like Harden came out of nowhere. He was regarded highly enough to be drafted No. 3 overall in 2009 and went on to become one of the game's best reserves during his highlight-filled tenure in Oklahoma City.

What's shocking, though, is the rapid manner in which he transformed from a player who started just seven games in three seasons with the Thunder into one of the game's brightest young stars with the Rockets.

Because make no mistake, that's just what he's become -- a star.
<offer></offer>

This goes well beyond the hot start Harden had in his opening two games with Houston, when he followed up his 37-point performance in the season opener with a dazzling 45-point effort. As impressive as that was, it was fairly easy to dismiss as a temporary hot streak. The general assumption at the time was that the league would eventually adjust and create defenses that would slow Harden down.
Yet he hasn't slowed down, not even a little.
He went on to average 23.6 points per game in November, topped that with 27.7 points per game in December and is averaging 26.0 points per game for the season, which ranks fifth in the league behind Durant (29.1), Anthony (28.7), Bryant (27.4) and James (26.9).

And he's been on fire of late. Consider his averages over the past three contests: 33.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 7.3 assists and 1.7 steals while shooting 63.5 percent (33-of-52) from the field and 52.6 percent (10-of-19) from 3-point range.

As you can see, this clearly goes beyond a short-term trend. What Harden has proved over the first half of the season is that he's undeniably one of the most unstoppable players in the NBA and a rising star whom the Rockets can build around for years to come.

Here are three areas in particular that make the 23-year-old such a promising part of Houston's future:

[h=3]Versatility[/h]
Harden's 6-foot-5, 220-pound frame is ideal for an NBA shooting guard, and he uses it to his advantage whenever he's on the court. What's impressive is the way he impacts the game in so many ways other than scoring. He's great at creating off the dribble and is a willing passer (5.7 assists per game). He's big and athletic enough to battle for boards (4.7 rebounds per game). And he's so quick and rangy on defense that it often translates to steals and high-percentage fast-break opportunities. Harden ranks No. 20 in the league in steals per 48 minutes (2.34). Plus he's more than a player who can score with the best of them; even at this early stage in his career, he's a player who can positively impact the game on both ends of the court.


[h=3]Getting to the foul line[/h]
Few players in the game are as committed and polished at driving to the basket and attacking the rim as Harden. The former Arizona State star's strength and aggressive style put the defense on its heels, often resulting in trips to the free throw line. In fact, if you look at the free throw numbers in the NBA this season, Harden's jump off the page.

Entering Monday, he has attempted a league-leading 510 free throws. That puts him 45 ahead of second-place Kevin Durant (465). More impressive is that only five other players have even attempted more than 300 free throws this season -- Dwight Howard (411), Bryant (374), Russell Westbrook (336), James (312) and Anthony (302). Harden is attempting a league-best 10.0 free throws per game and shooting 85.5 percent from the line, giving Houston a big advantage in the final minutes of close contests.
[h=3]Transition game[/h]
Harden's aggressiveness, quickness and ability to handle the ball and finish at the rim make him an absolute dream in transition. According to Synergy Sports Technology, he averages 1.318 points per play in transition, which puts him in the 83rd percentile. (The only surprise there is that he isn't ranked even higher than that.) When Harden isn't leading the break, he likes to set up on the right wing, and from there he's particularly lethal; Synergy shows that his 1.698 points per play when operating from the right wing in transition ranks No. 6 in the league.

 

[HacheMan]

Thomas proving his worth in February

By Tom Carpenter, ESPN.com

In a practical sense, Aaron Brooks has been out of the rotation for weeks. But in the two games since coach Keith Smart announced that he was formally pulling Brooks out of the rotation so he can lean exclusively on Isaiah Thomas and Jimmer Fredette at the point, IT2 has taken flight. On Saturday, he scored 25 points with 2 3s, 3 dimes and 3 steals, and he followed that performance up with 23 points, 2 3s, 6 assists and 2 steals Sunday night.

At this point, there is no sense in rehashing the season-long debate about why on earth Smart didn't turn Thomas loose months ago, but as fantasy owners, we should just be happy it has happened. Thomas has knocked down two 3s in each of his past four games, has taken double-digit shots in eight straight games and 12 of his past 13. He has also been highly active at the free throw line, where he has had games of 10-of-10 and 13-of-13; in fact, he hasn't missed a free throw in February (29-of-29).

In five games this month, Thomas is averaging 19.4 points, 1.6 3s, 4.6 assists, 3.0 rebounds, 1.6 steals, while shooting 42.9 percent from the field (14.0 FGA) and, as mentioned, 100 percent from the line (5.8 FTA). That compares well to the numbers he posted after the All-Star break last season: 14.2 ppg, 1.5 3s, 5.2 apg, 3.0 rpg, 1.1 spg, 47.2 FG% (10.3 FGA) and 83.1 FT% (3.6 FTA).

It seems that Smart finally is back on board with his talented and tiny point guard, so hopefully he will continue to turn him loose for the remainder of the season. The only catch with his production is for those of you in leagues that set weekly lineups, because the Sacramento Kings have an unappetizing schedule during the final five full weeks of the season: 2, 4, 3, 3 and 3 games. That means you may want to consider flipping him for a player of similar value with a better schedule for your fantasy playoff stretch, perhaps someone from the New York Knicks or Minnesota Timberwolves, who have the strongest late-season schedules.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]SUNDAY, FEB. 10[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Paul Pierce, Celtics: 27 points (7-20 FG, 8-9 FT), 14 rebounds, 14 assists, 5 3-pointers versus Nuggets
Thabo Sefolosha, Thunder: 20 points (7-11 FG), 5 3-pointers, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals versus Suns
Nikola Vucevic, Magic: 17 points (8-12 FG), 19 rebounds, 3 assists versus Trail Blazers
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Michael Beasley, Suns: 4 points (2-11 FG), 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 turnovers versus Thunder
Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers:4 points (1-16 FG, 0-8 3s), 12 assists, 4 turnovers versus Magic
J.R. Smith, Knicks: 6 points (1-9 FG), 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 turnovers versus Clippers



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• After playing limited minutes in his first three games since returning from a broken finger, Jonas Valanciunas played 26 minutes Friday, coming off the bench for 14 points (6-10 FG), 13 rebounds and two blocks. On Sunday, he was placed back into the starting lineup and responded with 11 points (5-8 FG), 10 boards and two blocks. There is plenty of upside in this rookie as a double-double threat with blocks, so long as he can stay out of foul trouble. He's worth adding off waivers to see if things click after the All-Star break.

• Gustavo Ayon hadn't topped 14 minutes in a game since December, but he was on the hardwood for 31 minutes Sunday and came up big with 16 points, 11 boards, 6 dimes and a block against the Portland Trail Blazers. Considering that his resurgence coincided with the Magic snapping a 12-game losing streak, we may end up seeing more of Ayon going forward. Considering the Magic likely will be involved in trade-deadline deals, he could be worth a speculative add in case he is dealt to a team willing to use him more, or in case a trade opens up more game action for Ayon in the Magic's rotation.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Tim Duncan missed his third straight game -- and eighth of his past 10 -- Sunday due to a sore knee. Meanwhile, teammate Manu Ginobili skipped his fourth straight game due to a sore hamstring. With just two games remaining before the All-Star break, it would be surprising to see either of them lace up this week.

• Danny Granger took part in his first full-court practice Sunday and could be back in the mix as soon as Wednesday. That's the Indiana Pacers' final game before the break, so it appears he will be back in the mix afterward, regardless of his availability for Wednesday. He's been out all season with a knee injury. Meanwhile, Paul George has exploded and taken over as the best player on the Pacers roster. We should keep all expectations in check for Granger going forward, because he will be a second wheel to George and may be on a minutes restriction for a while.

• Per John Reid of the New Orleans Times-Picayune, Eric Gordon still is not 100 percent healthy, remains on a minutes restriction and has no timetable for when he will begin playing back-to-back games. He's still hovering around 29-30 minutes per game most nights, but his production has been downright awful this month (27 points Friday, 25 combined points in his other three games, and little else statistically). Considering his lengthy injury history, it's hard to fault the Hornets for babying him. His sketchy production of late makes him a decent trade target if you need to take a risk to win your league; maybe they will turn him loose over the final weeks of the season when it matters most.

• I mentioned above that Ayon is worth a look in case the Magic pull off a trade or two prior to next week's deadline, but there are plenty of other players whose value could change due to trades. Josh Smith, Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, J.J. Redick, Timofey Mozgov, Iman Shumpert, Jared Dudley, Kris Humphries, Gordon and Andrea Bargnani all have been tied to trade rumors of late. I think that most of them will see a bump in production if traded, though I expect Redick and Dudley to see a decrease in touches and production if dealt away.

[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
With James Harden battling the Golden State Warriors and Kobe Bryant against the Phoenix Suns, you should be set at guard Tuesday evening. The same goes at forward, where Fastbreak beasts LeBron James and Kevin Durant are active. At center, Dwight Howard looks like a good bet against the Phoenix Suns, but I'm leaning toward Omer Asik against the Golden State Warriors. He's been rolling lately with eight straight games of at least 17 Fastbreak points and three games of at least 28 points over that stretch, including Sunday against the Kings.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Scoring being overvalued in fantasy[/h][h=3]While important, many owners place too much emphasis on points[/h]By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

I believe that fantasy owners are better off ignoring points per game when drafting their teams. The question comes down to this: Does scoring drive a player's fantasy production, or vice versa? I believe it's the latter.

If you pay attention to putting together a team built to win in the other categories -- especially the percentages -- the points will arrive naturally. My teams never have a problem scoring. If they lose, it's because I've made mistakes in other areas.

Remember that points are only one category within a larger picture.

Only one other category -- 3-pointers -- has even a tangential relationship to a particular player's scoring output. (But you should pay attention to the amount of attempts a player takes per game, the amount of 3-pointers, because those numbers influence the impact a player will have on your team's percentages.)

Nothing causes a player to be overvalued more than a high scoring average. Because of the bias toward points scored that is ingrained within our basketball psyches, we're taught to overvalue their importance within the confines of fantasy basketball.

For a while, I'd even delete points per game from my draft spreadsheet, because I found I was deferring my tougher drafting decisions to points per game. Eventually, I retrained my eye to gravitate to other columns in a player's stat sheet.

While a high scoring average is usually connected to high-grade fantasy production, this isn't always the case. Some players can be very valuable despite their low-scoring tendencies, while some players provide points and little else. I covet players who don't have to score to be productive fantasy contributors. And I try to stay away from players who give only what I call "empty points." Players in the first pool are usually undervalued in trades and linger on the waiver wire a little longer. Players in the second pool tend to be overvalued.

To illustrate this dynamic, I've put together two opposing lineups. One is comprised of "empty points" players, and the other is made up of low-scoring producers. Let's break them down by position:

(NOTE: "PR" below stands for value on the Player Rater)

[h=3]Point Guard[/h]
Ramon Sessions: 3.28 PR, 15.1 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 3.9 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.5 3s, 41.3 FG%, 31.1 3P%
versus
Darren Collison: 6.46 PR, 12.8 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 5.4 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.7 3s, 48.2 FG%, 40.0 3P%

It's a little unfair to include point guards within this discussion. By nature, point guards usually present a diverse statistical portfolio, based on the fact that we know they're bringing assists to the table. But there are always a couple of score-first point guards out there who buck the trend. Players like Sessions and Rodney Stuckey tend to bounce around in multiple roles, which may be to blame for the lack of across-the-board production.

The biggest fantasy problem players like Sessions and Stuckey suffer from is a lack of offensive efficiency. They're both known as score-first point guards, but they require a lot of shots to maintain that reputation. They can't hit 3s, so they rely on a lot of penetration and midrange jumpers, which tends to be a losing combination when trying to build efficiency. Fantasy-wise, it leaves little room for error, because you're stuck with players who don't contribute 3s, have bad percentages and don't rack up a lot of assists (relative to their position).

Contrast Sessions' numbers with Collison's. Collison is quietly putting together one of the more underrated campaigns in fantasy. He does absolutely nothing well, but does a little bit of everything. He picks his spots for his offense, and while he isn't lighting up any scoreboards, he has been efficient. As a matter of fact, his 40 percent clip from behind the arc shows that there's some upside yet to be tapped in his fantasy value.

[h=3]Shooting Guard[/h]
DeMar DeRozan: 3.74 PR, 17.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.3 BPG, 0.5 3s, 43.4 FG%
versus
Danny Green: 4.65 PR, 10.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 2.3 3s, 44.9 FG%

I could list several shooting guards as "empty points" players, but I went with DeRozan because I wanted to talk for a moment about how players can rise out of the "empty points" category. Until Rudy Gay showed up looking for recommendations for poutine, DeRozan had been putting together a step-forward type of season.

He was the personification of empty points early in his career. Then this season, he started rebounding the ball a little better and increasing his steals. Now that Gay's in Toronto, DeRozan has continued to score, but he's shooting more 3s while grabbing fewer boards. Maybe DeRozan can make that statistical transition.

Green obviously has no problem hitting 3-pointers. He's a great example of how a player doesn't need to score if he provides elite production in a specific category.

Green's generous with his 3s, but what makes him special are his defensive numbers. Green has the potential to average 1.5 steals and a block per game. We could be looking long term at a poor man's Nicolas Batum; Green makes for a potentially great fantasy pairing with Kawhi Leonard on the wing.

[h=3]Small Forward[/h]
Joe Johnson: 4.05 PR, 16.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 3.4 APG, 0.6 SPG, 2.0 3s, 42.1 FG%
versus
Chandler Parsons: 6.29 PR, 14.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.8 3s, 46.9 FG%

Johnson used to be the personification of the player who didn't need to score to be productive. During his peak years in Atlanta, he was a perfect fantasy glue guy, a great player to build a fantasy team around, thanks his contributions in assists, rebounds and percentages.

Since his arrival in Brooklyn, Johnson has struggled in a new scheme and has sort of evolved into a New York version of Arron Afflalo, meaning a 3-point specialist who can chip in a little in rebounds and assists.

Parsons is vastly outperforming Johnson at a fraction of the fantasy price (Johnson's ADP was 35, Parsons' was 149). I resent good-looking people as much as the next fantasy analyst, but there really isn't a dent in Parsons' resume. He's proof of what can happen when a smart GM drafts a specific skill set for a high-pace system.

[h=3]Power Forward[/h]
Dirk Nowitzki: 2.95 PR, 15.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, 0.4 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 1.1 3s, 41.5 FG%
versus
Andrei Kirilenko: 7.80 PR, 13.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.5 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 0.6 3s, 51.0 FG%

There have been some vintage Dirk sightings recently (24 points Monday night), and I hope for the sake of the owners who reached to draft him that he reverts to form. But so far this season, he's basically been a less rugged version of Byron Mullens. He's still getting it done from behind the arc, but his lack of effectiveness in the midrange game has held back his value.

Andrei Kirilenko (when healthy) has been having a flashback season of his own, back to around 2005, when he was one of the best all-around players in fantasy. The key, as always, with Kirilenko is that parenthetical. He has to remain ambulatory and on the court to continue his comeback campaign, and with the other injuries in Minnesota he should get all the minutes he can handle.

[h=3]Center[/h]Amar'e Stoudemire: 3.95 PR, 13.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 0.5 APG, 0.4 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 57.9 FG%
versus
Nikola Vucevic, .599 PR, 12.5 PPG, 11.6 RPG, 1.6 APG, 0.6 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 52.3 FG%


I'm happy that Stoudemire has found his niche within the Knicks' winning formula. That niche? Keeping him and Carmelo Anthony off the floor at the same time whenever possible. That leaves Stoudemire free to provide instant offense.

Stoudemire's sixth-man role has meant even less attention to rebounding, and streakier point production. One positive about Stoudemire is that when his offense is rolling, he blocks shots. So I expect him to improve his blocks per game, even in a diminished role.

Here's a question: Would you rather have Vucevic or DeMarcus Cousins for the rest of the season? Or in a keeper league? Cousins has the upside, but Vucevic is the kind of player you can plug into center opening night and not have to worry about again until April.
Vucevic's success story underscores why fantasy enthusiasts need to pay extra attention to floundering NBA teams. They're the rotations that can produce the biggest dynamic shifts in minutes and fantasy numbers as the season progresses.

 

[HacheMan]

Notable sell-high options

By Seth Landman | Special to ESPN.comThe NBA trade deadline, besides putting an end to most major roster overhauls, is often a symbolic moment where teams decide whether they are "going for it" or not. This decision can take many forms. Teams over the luxury tax have to decide whether it might make sense to get under the threshold, especially before the new CBA's more draconian penalties kick in. Teams with young players need to decide whether they will prioritize development or wins. You get the idea.

The fact that this threshold can often seem arbitrary for teams that won't make trades this season doesn't make it any less significant, and the fact that it's coming up means this is a good time to assess which players you are buying and which you are selling, as the metaphor goes.

Today, we'll look at a few players on whom you might to consider selling high in fantasy leagues (ranking based on per game averages in parentheses):

Mayo

O.J. Mayo, SG, Dallas Mavericks (20): I keep thinking Mayo is on the verge of a decline, and he keeps putting it off, but I'm putting him on this list anyway. Part of this has to do not so much with his overall game as it does with what I believe is some pretty fluky shooting results. According to hoopdata.com, the only area on the floor where Mayo isn't shooting a career-high percentage is right at the rim (and he's having the second best year he's ever had from that area, too). A quick look at the Player Rater will tell you that Mayo's best category is 3-point shooting, but at 42.5 percent from behind the arc, he's so far ahead of his career average that I can't help but see him coming back down to Earth in the coming weeks. A guy like Jeff Teague, for example, could help you in more areas than Mayo as long as you can afford the hit in 3s, and if you think Mayo is due for a regression in that area anyway, now's the time to pull the trigger on a deal like that.

Lopez

Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets (27): The Nets have done a great job so far this season of limiting Lopez's minutes, which has appeared to help him play with more energy while he's on the floor. However, as the Nets have struggled of late, Lopez has had to play more. He's up to 34.7 minutes per game so far in February, a number that would put him ahead of all but three centers (Dwight Howard, Al Horford and Joakim Noah) league-wide. Lopez is not on the same level athletically as those guys, and probably isn't suited to playing heavy minutes in the long term (his rebounding fell off a cliff playing heavy minutes in his last full season before this one). Additionally, it's worth noting that his shooting, which is over 50 percent overall for the first time since his rookie season, has taken a nose dive down to 48 percent so far this month. Right now, he's still putting up big numbers and has major trade value, but he's likely to have some tough spells down the stretch, and if you can sacrifice his scoring, you might be able to duplicate the rest of his stats elsewhere.

West

David West, PF, Indiana Pacers (52): West has been great this season, tying for the second highest PER of his career and leading a really good Pacers team through some early struggles to the fringes of contention. It's a delicate balance, as he's 32 years old (even if he's traditionally been a pretty durable guy). Still, Danny Granger will be returning to the lineup soon, and given the league-wide trend toward small-ball, it stands to reason that West's minutes could dip from the nearly 34 he's averaging now to the 29 he averaged last season. That's pure speculation on my part, but the Pacers are going have more lineups at their disposal when Granger returns, and it makes sense to try to keep West fresh for what are sure to be some pretty intense playoff battles coming up.

World Peace

Metta World Peace, SF/PF, Los Angeles Lakers (75): World Peace shot the ball much better for the first couple of months than most of us thought he would, and he's making 2.0 3s per game, which would be the second high total of his entire career. For the last two months, however, he's on a real cold streak, and is making exactly one 3 per game so far in February. That's not good, and if it keeps up, it's going to sap his value in a big way. He'd still be worth owning because of his steals, but if you can afford to lose a little ground in that category, he's going to basically be dragging you down everywhere else. Remember, he shot less than 30 percent on 3s last season, so there's no reason to think he's going to get hot again once he's cold. He's an aging player on a dysfunctional team, and you should try to trade him while he still looks like a top-100 fantasy guy. If you can trade him for, say, Joe Johnson (assuming Joe's owner is as fed up with him as everyone else seems to be), that would be a pretty good haul with some upside to boot.

Smith

J.R. Smith, SG/SF, New York Knicks (86): Smith has been on fire so far in February, averaging 15.3 points while making 3.3 3s per game. While 37 percent shooting on nine attempts per game from behind the arc will get you a lot of 3s, I'm not sure it's a sustainable number given that he'd shot under 30 percent from that distance over the past two months. Sure, Smith can get streaky and stay hot for a while, but with Iman Shumpert back in the lineup, the Knicks will be relying less and less on Smith. It's worth pointing out that in his 12 games since returning from injury, Shumpert is actually shooting 41.4 percent on 3s, which makes him just as valuable as a floor spacer. Smith, of course, is a superior shot-creator, but his steals, blocks, assists, rebounds and free throw shooting percentage are all in decline, so dealing him while he's still putting up big numbers would probably be a good idea.

 

[HacheMan]

Pre-emptive strikes

Act now on players whose values could change at NBA trade deadline

By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

The trade deadline occurs during a lull in the waiver-wire season, when the game-changing early-season additions are universally owned and it's hard to find monumental value available in free agency. Trades create a refreshing midseason shakeup in the fantasy landscape, as they typically elicit notable value from a handful of widely-unowned players who benefit from team's altered rosters.
But once integral players swap teams, there's a mad scramble for this new value, and it's often too late to add them after the trades have gone down. Thus, shrewd fantasy owners make preemptive strikes by adding players who'll most likely benefit from likely trades before the trades actually happen. This week I'll identify players who could benefit if the names mentioned in trade rumors are eschewed from their teams, as well as some other widely-available options who can breathe life into fantasy teams in need of assistance.

Patterson
Patrick Patterson, PF, Houston Rockets (30.8 percent owned): 2Pat's offensive game has taken a step forward this year, as he's improved his true shooting percentage and Player Efficiency Rating with an increased usage rate and a further improved pick-and-pop game. Additionally, he's taking more shots and converting at a higher percentage at the rim, which has allowed his field goal percentage to improve despite the fact he's added the 3-pointer to his arsenal. He's averaging 15.6 points on 59.5 percent shooting in February, scoring in double digits in seven straight and nine of his past 10 games. Unfortunately, as he's developed his offensive game, his rebounding has dropped off, and it's critical to view Patterson as a power forward who will provide small forward-type production. He'll give you about half a steal and half a block per game, but Patterson's primary value comes from efficient scoring with 3s from the power forward position. Of the 154 players averaging at least 0.8 3s per game, Patterson, LeBron James and Kevin Durant are the only players shooting over 50 percent from the floor. That's impressive company, and if you're looking for some scoring punch, Patterson is a productive, but not well-rounded, addition.

Valanciunas
Jonas Valanciunas, C, Toronto Raptors (26.2 percent owned): He returned Feb. 1 after missing 18 games with a broken finger, is in line to start at center for the Raps going forward, and has two double-doubles and seven blocks in his past four games. He's still assimilating to the league, but his aggressiveness on both ends of the court and combination of explosiveness and skill lead me to believe he'll improve upon his statistics going forward. He takes 64.2 percent of his shots inside 10 feet, so look for him to continue shooting over 50 percent from the floor. He'll be swooped up in most leagues soon, so if you need a gainful source of rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage, add the talented rookie now.

Humphries
Kris Humphries, PF, Brooklyn Nets (21.2 percent owned): He's fallen out of favor in Brooklyn due to the redundancies between his and Reggie Evans' skill sets, and has been involved in numerous trade rumors, including being sent to Charlotte and Atlanta. If he's traded, he'll likely earn more than 19.3 minutes per game, and when given PT, Humphries is a double-double machine who can block a shot per game. He ranked 48th on the Player Rater last season, averaged a double-double in two straight seasons, and is still averaging 15.5 rebounds per 48 minutes, good for 13th in the league. Despite his diminished role, his total rebounding rate (percentage of total rebounds a player grabs during his time on the court) is up to 19.2 compared to last season's 18.3. We've already seen he's capable of top-50 stats, and his skills haven't diminished, so he's worth a speculative roster spot on the chance he finds himself in a more statistically-lucrative situation after the trading deadline.

Bradley
Avery Bradley, PG/SG, Boston Celtics (4.3 percent owned): Now that Leandro Barbosa has joined Rajon Rondo and Jared Sullinger as Celtics out for the year, Bradley's responsibilities have been even further augmented. He's hit double-digit scoring in four of his past five games, has 10 steals in his past four games, and has even upped his assists a bit, averaging 2.6 per game over his past five contests. But Bradley's contributions come primarily on D, where he's posting Thabo Sefolosha-type defensive stats from the guard position, with 1.4 steals and 0.7 blocks per game this month. His 0.6 blocks per game ranks second among point guard-eligible players, and his 2.23 steals per-48 minutes ranks 27th in the league. Don't expect much on the scoring end, but he should see a bump in assists with fantastic defensive stats and play as many minutes as his body can handle, especially if the Celtics don't make a move for another guard at the deadline.

Chandler
Wilson Chandler, SG/SF, Denver Nuggets (3.8 percent owned): Denver's depth at the wing is a detriment to Chandler's value, but his skill set is made for the fantasy game, with his ability to provide 3s, steals and blocks all at a high rate. He's averaging 0.9 steals, 0.9 3s and 0.4 blocks per game in just 19.4 minutes, and of the 32 players averaging at least 0.9 steals and 0.9 3s per game, Jae Crowder is the only other averaging fewer than 20 minutes per game. He's a per-minute beast, so even if the Nuggets don't make any trades, I'd rather invest in a high-upside guy like Chandler for my bench slot than a player who starts for his team but has a limited ceiling.

Johnson
Ivan Johnson, PF, Atlanta Hawks (0.1 percent owned): Josh Smith's name is swirling in trade rumors, and if they don't replace him with another frontcourt player, Johnson should see more playing time. His per-40 minute stats of 17.5 points, 10.4 rebounds and 2.1 steals reflect fantasy potential, and the fact he attempts over half his shots from inside 10 feet and converts 72.4 percent of his shots at the rim bodes well for his field goal percentage. I find it difficult to ignore his resemblance to Kimbo Slice, which is fitting on the court since Johnson doesn't shy away from contact and can be an enforcer down low. He's an active rebounder with quick hands that has the potential to contribute in rebounds and steals if a Smith trade opens up more playing time.

Kanter
Enes Kanter, C, Utah Jazz (0.1 percent owned): As I pointed out last week, Derrick Favors stands to go nuts if the Jazz trade away Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap. But Kanter will also see a bump in value, and his sparkling per-minute stats indicate he'll be a factor in deep leagues if given more run. Kanter's total rebounding rate of 16.6 is the best of any healthy center averaging fewer than 15 minutes per game, and he ranks seventh overall in offensive rebounding rate. His 13.7 rebounds per-48 minutes is identical to Favors', and he's flashed improved face-up game, shooting 46.1 percent on shots between 10 and 23 feet. In the eight games this season in which he has played at least 20 minutes, he's averaging 10.8 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.1 blocks in 23.0 minutes per game. Those are realistic numbers to project if he becomes the No. 3 big in Utah, so if Favors is already owned and you're looking for a high-upside center, Kanter could be a savvy preemptive addition.

Ellington
Wayne Ellington, SG, Cleveland Cavaliers (0.1 percent owned): Like Marreese Speights, Ellington has benefited from the trade from Memphis to Cleveland, as he's become a valid scoring option off the bench. He's scored in double figures in six of the past nine games, and is averaging 11.6 points and 2.0 3s per game in his past five. He's averaging almost four more minutes per game in Cleveland and is emerging as a legitimate 3-point specialist. Only 23 players are averaging two or more 3s per game, and Ellington is doing just that in his seven games this month with the Cavs. If he continues getting 20-plus minutes per night he should remain a valuable source of 3s for deeper leagues.

Udrih
Beno Udrih, PG/SG, Milwaukee Bucks (0.1 percent owned): Brandon Jennings' name has surfaced in a number of trade rumors with news of his "irreconcilable differences" with the Bucks' organization. If Jennings is jettisoned, it could open up a role for the wholly capable Udrih, whose assist rate (rate of assists against possessions used) of 31.2 ranks 21st in the league among players averaging at least 15 minutes per game, and is tops of any Bucks player. He's shooting 48.1 percent from the floor, and should provide ample assists with a handful of steals and 3s if Jennings leaves and Udrih gains a larger role in the Milwaukee offense.

 

[HacheMan]

Good reason for Anthony's rough night

By Neil Tardy, Special to ESPN.com

After totaling 109 points in his previous three games, Carmelo Anthony was awful on Wednesday. It turns out there was a very good reason for this.

Early in the New York Knicks' loss to the Toronto Raptors, a DeMar DeRozan elbow hit a driving Anthony in the right arm. Melo reported playing with numbness throughout the night, during which he managed just 12 points while missing 19 of 24 shots.

The bicep injury is serious enough that Anthony is considering skipping the All-Star Game. Whether he'll miss any time for the Knicks post-break remains to be seen.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]WEDNESDAY, FEB. 13[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Samuel Dalembert, Bucks: 17 points (8-13 FG), 14 rebounds, 3 blocks versus 76ers
Paul George, Pacers: 23 points, 12 rebounds, 12 assists, 2 steals versus Bobcats
Ricky Rubio, Timberwolves: 18 points (3-13 FG, 12-13 FT), 9 rebounds, 10 assists, 4 steals versus Jazz
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Carmelo Anthony, Knicks: 12 points (5-24 FG, 1-4 FT), 12 rebounds versus Raptors
Kyrie Irving, Cavaliers: 6 points (2-15 FG), 7 assists versus Spurs
Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers: 12 points (4-15 FG), 4 assists versus Hornets



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• James Harden (ankle) was expected to play on Wednesday, but after he experienced pain and soreness in warmups, the Houston Rockets held him out against the Los Angeles Clippers. Harden, too, is a question mark for All-Star weekend, but of course with the game in Houston, he has considerable incentive to play.

• Yeah, we're just getting started with the injury talk. Eric Gordon was a DNP after spraining his right hand in shootaround. Wesley Matthews didn't return after spraining his right ankle in the opening minutes of the Portland Trail Blazers' loss to the New Orleans Hornets, and David West (eye) was unavailable for the Indiana Pacers. Others who remained sidelined on Wednesday included Deron Williams (ankle), Larry Sanders (back), Danilo Gallinari (sinus infection), Andre Iguodala (neck) and Andrei Kirilenko (quad).

• The injury outlook did improve for the San Antonio Spurs, who actually had Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili on the court together for the first time since Jan. 13. Parker (24 points, 7 assists), was his usual stellar self, while Duncan (13 points and 5 blocks in 25 minutes) and, especially, Ginobili (just 9 minutes) were eased back in.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• After missing the previous game with a sore back, Chauncey Billups returned with a season-high 19 points against the Rockets on Wednesday. The Clippers face the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday, and Billups is expected to suit up again. It would be the first time Billups has played on consecutive days this season (of course, it's only his seventh game overall in 2012-13), so he could be limited. Still, if you're in a daily lineup league and you have the roster space, Billups could get you a couple of treys.

• Antawn Jamison is another plug-in possibility for Thursday. While Earl Clark (foot) is expected to go for the Lakers, Jamison played down the stretch on Tuesday, finishing with 19 points and 10 boards in 33 minutes. The veteran is available in more than 90 percent of ESPN.com leagues.

• Gordon Hayward (shoulder) missed his 10th straight game on Wednesday, and a report that he experienced pain during Tuesday practice is concerning. However, a return immediately following the break or soon thereafter remains a distinct possibility. Hayward is approaching 50 percent availability in ESPN.com leagues, and I believe he's well worth stashing. At the very least, check for further updates during the next few days.

 

[HacheMan]

Blake Griffin's fantasy improvement

By Josh Whitling, Special to ESPN.com
Blake Griffin scored 22 points on 11-for-15 shooting with 10 rebounds and two blocks in the Clippers' drubbing of the Lakers Thursday night. He has scored at least 17 points in all but one February contest. A quick glance at his numbers indicates that he's taken a step back, with overall decreases in points, rebounds and blocks. But on a per-minute basis, his scoring is nearly identical to last season, his jumper has improved significantly, he's posting twice as many steals and he has improved his free throw shooting to 65.7 percent from 52.1 percent last season. Most importantly, he's a much better fantasy player, with a No. 23 ranking on the Player Rater compared to last season's 62nd.

I avoided him on draft day because he was the third-most harmful player in free throw percentage last season, but now he's not even among the 10 worst, and he is third-best among power forwards in steals and fourth overall in field goal percentage. If Griffin's owner is frustrated by his reduction in some of the counting stats, he might be worth looking into buying, as his value should be higher than it was on draft day based upon his improved fantasy performance. Take advantage of the fact that, in many leagues, the perception is that he's regressed.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]THURSDAY, FEB. 14[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Kevin Durant, Thunder: 40 points (15-15 FT), 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks versus Heat
LeBron James, Heat: 39 points (14-24 FG), 12 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 3-pointers, 2 steals versus Thunder
Chris Paul, Clippers: 24 points (8-14 FG, 5-5 FT), 13 assists, 3 3-pointers, 2 steals versus Lakers
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Serge Ibaka, Thunder: 6 points, 6 rebounds, 0 blocks versus Heat
Kevin Martin, Thunder: 9 points, 3 rebounds versus Heat
Steve Nash, Lakers: 7 points, 5 assists, 3 turnovers versus Clippers



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• Kevin Durant failed to sink his first field goal until there were four minutes left in the first half, and he was 0-for-7 from the floor up to that point. But he finished with 40 points on 12-for-24 shooting, playing all 48 minutes. Grit like that is what makes him the best fantasy basketball player alive, and he should carry that crown throughout the second half of the season.

• Reggie Jackson has hit his career high in points (12) twice in the past five games, and is locked in as Russell Westbrook's backup. This doesn't mean much for standard leagues, as Westbrook has never missed a game due to injury in his life -- including high school and college -- but for very deep leagues Jackson has some potential in assists, steals and 3-pointers. He's averaging 3.5 assists, 0.7 steals and 1.0 3-pointer per game this month, and the fact that his Player Efficiency Rating has improved by nearly four points, despite averaging the same amount of minutes per game as last season, indicates that his progression as a player is quantifiable.

• Chauncey Billups went bananas in just 16 minutes, scoring 21 points with 5 3-pointers, 4 steals and 3 assists. He's rolled off his two best games of the season heading into the All-Star break, averaging 20 points per game in those games, and is primed to actually be a fantasy factor in the second half. He's averaging 11.0 points and 2.3 3s per game in his seven games this season, and although he'll play limited minutes given the Clippers' depth and the fact he's been dinged-up all season, he'll provide 3s with some assists, steals and sparkling free throw percentage.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• The schedule kicks back up on Tuesday, with nine games on the docket, including potential returns for day-to-day players such as Gordon Hayward, Jarrett Jack, Quincy Pondexter and Larry Sanders. Hayward is a player I'm keeping my eye on closely for the second half; his ownership has dropped to 52.4 percent, although I still like his fantasy skill set and see an improved second half from him. Last season, he averaged 14.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.1 3s, 0.8 steals and 0.5 blocks per game after the All-Star break, including 16.1 points, 3.5 assists, 1.8 3s and 0.9 steals per game in 13 April contests. He's hard-working, versatile, talented, and on a team that could look markedly different after the break, which means more offensive responsibilities could fall upon him and his minutes could increase from his current mark of 26.6 per game. I like him to hit in the second half, and still see him worthy of a roster spot, especially in roto formats.

• Wesley Matthews suffered a high-ankle sprain in Wednesday's contest, but at least he has the All-Star break to rest it, and given his reputation as someone who plays through injuries, he should be back earlier than most. Still, many miss several weeks with this injury, so monitor his situation going into Tuesday's games and expect increased contributions from Victor Claver and Will Barton if Matthews misses time.

• Danny Granger should return next Wednesday, as he went through full-court action with no issues Tuesday and apparently didn't play Wednesday due to illness rather than issues with his knee. He'll come off the bench at first, but should eventually supplant Lance Stephenson in the starting lineup. He won't supplant Paul George as the new star of the team, however, but Granger will undoubtedly have fantasy value, as he's averaged at least two 3s and one steal per game in each of the past five seasons. It's easy to undervalue him since he's declined in each of the past four seasons, and he's a shard of the top-10 player he once was, but he's still valuable and should be owned in every format.

• Andrew Bynum's return by the end of the month is still questionable, as he's participating in workouts but still limited by pain. Despite his disappointing season, he should also be universally rostered now that he's nearing a return, especially by teams who need a winning lottery ticket-type of player to bolster them in the standings in the second half. He's going to be an unrestricted free agent this summer and will likely want to post enough productive games to keep his value at the max level, so I'd expect some production from Bynum in the second half and view him as worthy of a bench spot in all formats.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Pre-emptive strikes[/h][h=3]Act now on players whose values could change at NBA trade deadline[/h]By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

The trade deadline occurs during a lull in the waiver-wire season, when the game-changing early-season additions are universally owned and it's hard to find monumental value available in free agency. Trades create a refreshing midseason shakeup in the fantasy landscape, as they typically elicit notable value from a handful of widely-unowned players who benefit from team's altered rosters.
But once integral players swap teams, there's a mad scramble for this new value, and it's often too late to add them after the trades have gone down. Thus, shrewd fantasy owners make preemptive strikes by adding players who'll most likely benefit from likely trades before the trades actually happen. This week I'll identify players who could benefit if the names mentioned in trade rumors are eschewed from their teams, as well as some other widely-available options who can breathe life into fantasy teams in need of assistance.

Patterson
Patrick Patterson, PF, Houston Rockets (30.8 percent owned): 2Pat's offensive game has taken a step forward this year, as he's improved his true shooting percentage and Player Efficiency Rating with an increased usage rate and a further improved pick-and-pop game. Additionally, he's taking more shots and converting at a higher percentage at the rim, which has allowed his field goal percentage to improve despite the fact he's added the 3-pointer to his arsenal. He's averaging 15.6 points on 59.5 percent shooting in February, scoring in double digits in seven straight and nine of his past 10 games. Unfortunately, as he's developed his offensive game, his rebounding has dropped off, and it's critical to view Patterson as a power forward who will provide small forward-type production. He'll give you about half a steal and half a block per game, but Patterson's primary value comes from efficient scoring with 3s from the power forward position. Of the 154 players averaging at least 0.8 3s per game, Patterson, LeBron James and Kevin Durant are the only players shooting over 50 percent from the floor. That's impressive company, and if you're looking for some scoring punch, Patterson is a productive, but not well-rounded, addition.

Valanciunas
Jonas Valanciunas, C, Toronto Raptors (26.2 percent owned): He returned Feb. 1 after missing 18 games with a broken finger, is in line to start at center for the Raps going forward, and has two double-doubles and seven blocks in his past four games. He's still assimilating to the league, but his aggressiveness on both ends of the court and combination of explosiveness and skill lead me to believe he'll improve upon his statistics going forward. He takes 64.2 percent of his shots inside 10 feet, so look for him to continue shooting over 50 percent from the floor. He'll be swooped up in most leagues soon, so if you need a gainful source of rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage, add the talented rookie now.

Humphries
Kris Humphries, PF, Brooklyn Nets (21.2 percent owned): He's fallen out of favor in Brooklyn due to the redundancies between his and Reggie Evans' skill sets, and has been involved in numerous trade rumors, including being sent to Charlotte and Atlanta. If he's traded, he'll likely earn more than 19.3 minutes per game, and when given PT, Humphries is a double-double machine who can block a shot per game. He ranked 48th on the Player Rater last season, averaged a double-double in two straight seasons, and is still averaging 15.5 rebounds per 48 minutes, good for 13th in the league. Despite his diminished role, his total rebounding rate (percentage of total rebounds a player grabs during his time on the court) is up to 19.2 compared to last season's 18.3. We've already seen he's capable of top-50 stats, and his skills haven't diminished, so he's worth a speculative roster spot on the chance he finds himself in a more statistically-lucrative situation after the trading deadline.

Bradley
Avery Bradley, PG/SG, Boston Celtics (4.3 percent owned): Now that Leandro Barbosa has joined Rajon Rondo and Jared Sullinger as Celtics out for the year, Bradley's responsibilities have been even further augmented. He's hit double-digit scoring in four of his past five games, has 10 steals in his past four games, and has even upped his assists a bit, averaging 2.6 per game over his past five contests. But Bradley's contributions come primarily on D, where he's posting Thabo Sefolosha-type defensive stats from the guard position, with 1.4 steals and 0.7 blocks per game this month. His 0.6 blocks per game ranks second among point guard-eligible players, and his 2.23 steals per-48 minutes ranks 27th in the league. Don't expect much on the scoring end, but he should see a bump in assists with fantastic defensive stats and play as many minutes as his body can handle, especially if the Celtics don't make a move for another guard at the deadline.

Chandler
Wilson Chandler, SG/SF, Denver Nuggets (3.8 percent owned): Denver's depth at the wing is a detriment to Chandler's value, but his skill set is made for the fantasy game, with his ability to provide 3s, steals and blocks all at a high rate. He's averaging 0.9 steals, 0.9 3s and 0.4 blocks per game in just 19.4 minutes, and of the 32 players averaging at least 0.9 steals and 0.9 3s per game, Jae Crowder is the only other averaging fewer than 20 minutes per game. He's a per-minute beast, so even if the Nuggets don't make any trades, I'd rather invest in a high-upside guy like Chandler for my bench slot than a player who starts for his team but has a limited ceiling.

Johnson
Ivan Johnson, PF, Atlanta Hawks (0.1 percent owned): Josh Smith's name is swirling in trade rumors, and if they don't replace him with another frontcourt player, Johnson should see more playing time. His per-40 minute stats of 17.5 points, 10.4 rebounds and 2.1 steals reflect fantasy potential, and the fact he attempts over half his shots from inside 10 feet and converts 72.4 percent of his shots at the rim bodes well for his field goal percentage. I find it difficult to ignore his resemblance to Kimbo Slice, which is fitting on the court since Johnson doesn't shy away from contact and can be an enforcer down low. He's an active rebounder with quick hands that has the potential to contribute in rebounds and steals if a Smith trade opens up more playing time.

Kanter
Enes Kanter, C, Utah Jazz (0.1 percent owned): As I pointed out last week, Derrick Favors stands to go nuts if the Jazz trade away Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap. But Kanter will also see a bump in value, and his sparkling per-minute stats indicate he'll be a factor in deep leagues if given more run. Kanter's total rebounding rate of 16.6 is the best of any healthy center averaging fewer than 15 minutes per game, and he ranks seventh overall in offensive rebounding rate. His 13.7 rebounds per-48 minutes is identical to Favors', and he's flashed improved face-up game, shooting 46.1 percent on shots between 10 and 23 feet. In the eight games this season in which he has played at least 20 minutes, he's averaging 10.8 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.1 blocks in 23.0 minutes per game. Those are realistic numbers to project if he becomes the No. 3 big in Utah, so if Favors is already owned and you're looking for a high-upside center, Kanter could be a savvy preemptive addition.

Ellington
Wayne Ellington, SG, Cleveland Cavaliers (0.1 percent owned): Like Marreese Speights, Ellington has benefited from the trade from Memphis to Cleveland, as he's become a valid scoring option off the bench. He's scored in double figures in six of the past nine games, and is averaging 11.6 points and 2.0 3s per game in his past five. He's averaging almost four more minutes per game in Cleveland and is emerging as a legitimate 3-point specialist. Only 23 players are averaging two or more 3s per game, and Ellington is doing just that in his seven games this month with the Cavs. If he continues getting 20-plus minutes per night he should remain a valuable source of 3s for deeper leagues.

Udrih
Beno Udrih, PG/SG, Milwaukee Bucks (0.1 percent owned): Brandon Jennings' name has surfaced in a number of trade rumors with news of his "irreconcilable differences" with the Bucks' organization. If Jennings is jettisoned, it could open up a role for the wholly capable Udrih, whose assist rate (rate of assists against possessions used) of 31.2 ranks 21st in the league among players averaging at least 15 minutes per game, and is tops of any Bucks player. He's shooting 48.1 percent from the floor, and should provide ample assists with a handful of steals and 3s if Jennings leaves and Udrih gains a larger role in the Milwaukee offense.

 

[HacheMan]

Top second-half buy candidates

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com

With the All-Star Game in our rearview mirror and only two months left in the NBA season, fantasy owners are looking to make their final preparations for the season's stretch run. As a continuation of last week's piece on post-All-Star-break buy and sell candidates, I've compiled an even larger list of players to buy for the end of the season. I should also note that I'm still targeting Kyle Lowry, Anthony Davis, Ricky Rubio, Derrick Favors, Paul George and Bradley Beal as discussed in last week's column.
[h=3]The Top 130[/h]Note: Brian McKitish's top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2012-13 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses.1. Kevin Durant, OKC (1)
2. LeBron James, MIA (2)
3. Chris Paul, LAC (6)
4. Russell Westbrook, OKC (3)
5. James Harden, HOU (4)
6. Stephen Curry, GS (7)
7. Kyrie Irving, CLE (5)
8. Nicolas Batum, POR (8)
9. Kobe Bryant, LAL (9)
10. Carmelo Anthony, NY (10)
11. Serge Ibaka, OKC (11)
12. Paul George, IND (12)
13. Dwyane Wade, MIA (13)
14. Marc Gasol, MEM (14)
15. Josh Smith, ATL (16)
16. Jrue Holiday, PHI (15)
17. Brook Lopez, BKN (18)
18. Paul Pierce, BOS (24)
19. Brandon Jennings, MIL (17)
20. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR (19)
21. Rudy Gay, TOR (21)
22. Ty Lawson, DEN (27)
23. Damian Lillard, POR (22)
24. Greg Monroe, DET (26)
25. David Lee, GS (20)
26. Al Jefferson, UTAH (25)
27. Tony Parker, SA (28)
28. Blake Griffin, LAC (30)
29. John Wall, WSH (31)
30. Jeff Teague, ATL (35)
31. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (33)
32. Greivis Vasquez, NO (32)
33. Deron Williams, BKN (23)
34. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (29)
35. Mike Conley, MEM (34)
36. Anthony Davis, NO (36)
37. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (37)
38. Danilo Gallinari, DEN (39)
39. Joakim Noah, CHI (45)
40. Jose Calderon, DET (56)
41. Kevin Garnett, BOS (49)
42. Kemba Walker, CHA (38)
43. Chris Bosh, MIA (44)
44. Zach Randolph, MEM (40)
45. Ryan Anderson, NO (41)
46. Al Horford, ATL (42)
47. Larry Sanders, MIL (46)
48. Kyle Lowry, TOR (47)
49. J.R. Smith, NY (43)
50. Ricky Rubio, MIN (50)
51. Kenneth Faried, DEN (52)
52. Nikola Vucevic, ORL (55)
53. Klay Thompson, GS (48)
54. Jameer Nelson, ORL (53)
55. George Hill, IND (51)
56. Tim Duncan, SA (54)
57. Monta Ellis, MIL (59)
58. Paul Millsap, UTAH (62)
59. Dwight Howard, LAL (67)
60. Wesley Matthews, POR (58)
61. Andre Iguodala, DEN (61)
62. O.J. Mayo, DAL (63)
63. Amare Stoudemire, NY (65)
64. Steve Nash, LAL (57)
65. Roy Hibbert, IND (69)
66. Goran Dragic, PHO (60)
67. Luol Deng, CHI (64)
68. Andrei Kirilenko, MIN (66)
69. Nikola Pekovic, MIN (68)
70. Tyreke Evans, SAC (70)
71. Jeremy Lin, HOU (71)
72. David West, IND (72)
73. Kevin Martin, OKC (73)
74. Tyson Chandler, NY (74)
75. Carlos Boozer, CHI (75)
76. Omer Asik, HOU (76)
77. Tristan Thompson, CLE (77)
78. Jarrett Jack, GS (89)
79. J.J. Redick, ORL (83)
80. Jamal Crawford, LAC (78)
81. Joe Johnson, BKN (81)
82. Kawhi Leonard, SA (87)
83. Raymond Felton, NY (79)
84. Nene Hilario, WSH (82)
85. Amir Johnson, TOR (85)
86. J.J. Hickson, POR (84)
87. Kyle Korver, ATL (86)
88. Darren Collison, DAL (91)
89. Chandler Parsons, HOU (93)
90. Evan Turner, PHI (88)
91. Danny Granger, IND (99)
92. Earl Clark, LAL (103)
93. Isaiah Thomas, SAC (105)
94. Ramon Sessions, CHA (94)
95. Byron Mullens, CHA (106)
96. Andrew Bogut, GS (95)
97. DeMar DeRozan, TOR (96)
98. Tiago Splitter, SA (98)
99. Manu Ginobili, SA (100)
100. Marcin Gortat, PHO (90)
101. Eric Gordon, NO (92)
102. Andrea Bargnani, TOR (102)
103. Jason Terry, BOS (109)
104. Shawn Marion, DAL (104)
105. Nate Robinson, CHI (111)
106. Arron Afflalo, ORL (101)
107. Metta World Peace, LAL (107)
108. Emeka Okafor, WSH (108)
109. Kevin Love, MIN (112)
110. Derrick Favors, UTAH (114)
111. Bradley Beal, WSH (118)
112. Randy Foye, UTAH (115)
113. Robin Lopez, NO (117)
114. Thaddeus Young, PHI (119)
115. Dion Waiters, CLE (123)
116. Daniel Green, SA (127)
117. Jeff Green, BOS (NR)
118. Gerald Henderson, CHA (120)
119. Gerald Wallace, BKN (122)
120. Michael Beasley, PHO (110)
121. Luis Scola, PHO (121)
122. Derrick Rose, CHI (80)
123. Patrick Patterson, HOU (124)
124. Brandon Knight, DET (116)
125. Vince Carter, DAL (126)
126. Luke Ridnour, MIN (NR)
127. Eric Bledsoe, LAC (125)
128. Samuel Dalembert, MIL (128)
129. JaVale McGee, DEN (129)
130. Andrew Bynum, PHI (130)

[h=3]Second-Half Buy Candidates[/h]As a leading candidate for sixth man of the year alongside J.R. Smith and Jamal Crawford, Jarrett Jack has been one of fantasy's most underrated players since earning a larger share of minutes in coach Mark Jackson's rotations back in mid-December. Averaging 16.4 points, 7.6 assists, 0.7 steals and 1.3 3-pointers while shooting 46.5 percent from the floor and 84.4 percent from the line in 32.4 minutes per game over the past month (13 games), Jack has quietly been a top-80 fantasy player for the better part of the season. A shoulder injury that caused him to miss three of the Warriors' past five games should be fully healed after the All-Star break, making him a nice trade target for the stretch run. The Warriors have dropped five straight with Jack hurting, so we can be assured that he'll get his full 32-plus minutes upon his return.
Speaking of players hoping to get healthy during the break, Nicolas Batum will look to rebound after slumping with averages of 10.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 0.4 steals, 1.8 blocks and 1.8 3-pointers while shooting 41.5 percent over his past eight games. A sore wrist is to blame for Batum's struggles, and with a full five days off, he should be able to return to form immediately following the break. Some folks have soured on Batum given his recent struggles, but he's still one of the league's most diverse fantasy talents with averages of 15.3 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.2 blocks and 2.3 3-pointers per game on the season.
It's been a rough season to date for Dirk Nowitzki, who has shot just 42.3 percent from the floor with averages of 15.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 0.5 steals, 0.7 blocks and 1.1 3-pointers in 23 contests. Dirk has struggled mightily in his recovery from preseason knee surgery, but has steadily improved and looked to be well on his way to full strength in the week leading up to the All-Star break. Perhaps a sign of things to come, Dirk posted 20.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.5 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.0 3-pointers while connecting on 14 of 23 shots from the floor in his past two games. Look for Nowitzki to get back on track in a big way after the break as Dallas will attempt to make a late run at the last playoff seed in the Western Conference.
Rudy Gay is doing his best Paul George impression in Toronto, averaging 20.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.7 steals, 0.9 blocks and 0.9 3-pointers in seven games with the Raptors. More importantly, Gay has played 38 minutes per game and has attempted 20.3 shots and 4.4 3-pointers per game since joining his new team. Granted, he's shooting only 38 percent from the floor and 19 percent from downtown, but these numbers are bound to improve as he becomes more comfortable with the extra attention that he's seeing from opposing defenders. Gay is an obvious buy candidate after the trade, but his poor shooting could make him available at a discounted price despite his terrific play in recent action.
If I had told you at the start of the season that Jeff Teague and Deron Williams would be so close in value at the All-Star break, you wouldn't have believed me, but Teague is much closer to Williams than we ever could have imagined. In fact, I've ranked Teague higher than Williams in my latest rankings update on the strength of his brilliant run since the Louis Williams injury. Over his last 14 games, Teague has averaged 18.1 points, 8.5 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.6 3-pointers while shooting 51.4 percent from the floor and 86.9 percent from the line. I expect him to be every bit as good as Deron Williams the rest of the way.
Speaking of players with similar value, Kevin Garnett is doing his best LaMarcus Aldridge and Al Jefferson impressions since the Rajon Rondo injury. Garnett has posted 17.7 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 1.1 blocks while shooting 52.4 percent from the floor and 86.2 percent from the line. For comparison, I've included Aldridge's and Jefferson's season totals below:
• Aldridge: 20.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 1.3 blocks, 48.2 FG%, 79.0 FT%
• Jefferson: 17.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.0 steals, 1.2 blocks, 48.5 FG%, 81.3 FT%
Garnett's current owners may be looking to sell high on this recent hot streak, particularly if they read up on trade rumors, but I think there's a pretty good chance Garnett remains in Celtic green and finishes the season strong. I wouldn't deal Aldridge or Jefferson for him straight up, but I'd certainly entertain a 2-for-1 deal that nets me Garnett and an upgrade in exchange for either of the two stud big men.
I've been on the J.J. Redick bandwagon for quite some time, but even I was surprised at how close he is to Kevin Martin and Joe Johnson in value after doing a little more digging into their numbers. Let's play a little game of "guess the player" to see if we can tell the difference:
• Player A: 15.0 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.0 steals, 2.2 3-pointers, 45.4 FG%, 90.4 FT%
• Player B: 15.3 points, 2.4 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 0.6 steals, 2.4 3-pointers, 45.9 FG%, 88.7 FT%
• Player C: 17.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 0.6 steals, 2.1 3-pointers, 42.4 FG%, 82.6 FT%
Pretty close, no? It can be argued that Redick (Player B) has outperformed both Martin (Player A) and Johnson (Player C) on the season. And although Redick's coming off a shoulder injury and has had trade rumors swirling over his head, he's still a nice buy option if he remains in Orlando. One of the more underrated fantasy players this season, Redick should continue to put up big numbers if he's not dealt at the trade deadline.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Players with upward mobility[/h][h=3]Bledsoe, Splitter among those emerging in fantasy[/h]By Seth Landman | Special to ESPN.com

This will be the last edition of the Player Rater column before Thursday's NBA trade deadline, and for all the denials coming out of front offices around the league, you can expect that there will be some player movement going on.

In today's column, we'll look at some players I think will be moving up the Player Rater rankings in the coming weeks, and, of course, some of those players have the potential for upward movement because of trade rumors. However, I'm mentioning these players because I think they're undervalued even in their current situations.

Eric Bledsoe, PG/SG, Los Angeles Clippers: Bledsoe is currently 93rd on the Player Rater based on his per-game averages, but because he hasn't missed time this season, he's a deceiving 58th based on the totals. His true value is probably somewhere in between, but if he gets traded, he's going to be in the top 50 for sure. Already he's carrying the eighth-highest PER of any point guard, even if he is playing fewer minutes per game than anyone else in the top 20 on that list because he's been behind Chris Paul all season.

The important thing here is that Bledsoe is available in roughly half of ESPN.com fantasy leagues, and in the leagues in which he's not available, you could probably have him in the right trade. If he doesn't get traded, you might lose some value in a deal like that, but it's worth considering that among point guards, Bledsoe in his current state is first in blocks per minute, second in steals per minute and fourth in rebounds per minute. That is to say that it doesn't exactly take major playing time for him to have a ton of value. If he gets traded, he's going to be a star in fantasy leagues very quickly.


Paul Millsap, SF/PF, Utah Jazz: It's almost amazing to imagine a player as useful as Millsap (currently 22nd in the league in PER) playing just 30.4 minutes per game. The players in the top 25 in PER playing fewer minutes than Millsap are rookies like Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond, injury risks like Brook Lopez and Amare Stoudemire, enigmas JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche, and Spurs like Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili. Millsap is a top-50 fantasy player already, and the fact that his name is in trade rumors could be dragging his perceived value down. This is a player you should absolutely be trying to acquire right now.

So far in February, Millsap is playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 16.2 points on 52.3 percent shooting from the floor in only 30.6 minutes per game. If he stays in Utah, he should be able to keep up that production, but if he gets traded, it's going to go through the roof, because few places have as loaded a frontcourt rotation as the Jazz. Any team that trades for Millsap will be well aware of his value and will likely give him playing time accordingly.

Tiago Splitter, PF/C, San Antonio Spurs: Splitter is still available in more than half of all fantasy leagues, and that's probably because of what might be perceived as inconsistency. Still, before two recent games in which he struggled, Splitter had scored in double figures in 16 straight games. He has a higher PER than many of the best players at his position: Kevin Garnett, Marc Gasol, Greg Monroe, Al Horford, Serge Ibaka and others.
Yes, his minutes will get yanked around because he plays for the Spurs, and the Spurs couldn't care less about what his numbers look like, but Splitter scores and rebounds, and he does those things while shooting an extremely high percentage from the floor. If he gets traded, his value could explode.

Evan Turner, SG/SF, Philadelphia 76ers: Turner has been terrible so far in February, and while that sounds like a bad thing, it's also true that you could probably have him in a trade if you make your move now. The Sixers might be thinking of unloading him, and I get it; they are a team that's already struggling with their spacing, and despite an improving 3-point stroke, no one would confuse Turner for a floor-spacer at this point. What he is, however, is a unique NBA player.

No guard this season is playing more minutes than Turner with as high a rebound rate, and frankly it's not even close. Landry Fields did something similar in New York a couple of years ago, but he didn't add Turner's ability to rack up assists (something that's a carryover from his all-around college game). Basically, Turner right now is a classic points, rebounds, and assists guy who doesn't do enough of the peripheral stuff to be great in fantasy leagues, but he's improving. A trade probably wouldn't help him much given that he's already playing more than 36 minutes per game, but if he ever finds himself on a team with some great outside shooting, watch out.

Jeff Teague, PG, Atlanta Hawks: Teague is already a great fantasy player, firmly entrenched in the top 50 on the Player Rater, but I think he's still a bit underrated, and he is thought of as a lesser option than guys like Ty Lawson, Monta Ellis and others. Teague has been phenomenal so far in February, averaging 18.3 points on 54 percent shooting from the floor. And at 39 percent on 3s for the season, his jump shot is now a legitimate weapon.

The question, I guess, is whether Teague has it in him to be a superstar. Frankly, I think he does. His usage rate is 21.9, which is actually less than guys like Jameer Nelson and Brandon Knight. He's efficient enough that there's room for him to explore his own offense a bit more; I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility for him to average the 18.3 points he's putting up in February for a whole season. If Josh Smith is traded in the next couple of days, you'll be even more excited than usual to have Teague on your roster.