NBA Fantasy News 2012/2013

[HacheMan]

Working the Wire: Late risers

By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

In a momentous scene from "He Got Game," Denzel Washington's character, Jake Shuttlesworth, schools his son Jesus about the importance of putting in work while your opponents sleep:

He says, "That's right. Come on, come on. Work, baby. You got to work harder than the next man, right? It's the will of the man; it ain't the skill of the man. He can't play you. He can't do nothing with you! We the only two people up. Me, you and Michael Jordan. That's the only people. Everybody else in the world is asleep."

Well, right now in many fantasy leagues, your opponents are sleeping. And being industrious with your roster moves and mining the wire for the players who fit your team best is the equivalent of being the only one up while everybody else in the world is asleep.

Here are some widely-available players your opponents might be sleeping on who are capable of providing a boost to fantasy teams trying to finish the season strong:

Livingston

Shaun Livingston, PG/SG, Cleveland Cavaliers (13.6 percent owned): It's always bittersweet when a player as thrilling to watch as Kyrie Irving is shelved. But the silver lining is that there's a feel-good story in the fact Livingston's career has been resurrected by holding down the fort at point guard for the Cavs. In 12 starts this season, Livingston is averaging 10.3 points on 49.0 percent from the floor and 88.9 percent from the stripe with 3.7 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 0.8 steals and 0.3 blocks per game, and his assist rate of 35.43 ranks 13th in the league among those averaging at least 20 minutes per game. The biggest issue with his game is the lack of 3-pointers; if you need them from your point guard, don't bother with Livingston. The trade-off, however, is that his field goal percentage is fantastic (over the past 30 days he's the fifth most helpful point guard in field goal percentage on the Player Rater), and that coupled with efficient free throw shooting, low turnovers, the occasional block from the guard position and dual-position eligibility, he's got plenty of checkmarks in the "pro" column. The most reassuring aspect of Livingston's value is that his playing time is secure for the rest of the season, as the injury-plagued Cavs will give him plenty of run going forward.

Wright

Brandan Wright, PF/C, Dallas Mavericks (8.2 percent owned): Wright may never live up to the expectations many had for him when he was selected eighth overall in the 2007 draft, but he's surfaced as a legitimate rotation big man for the Mavs. Wright is sharing the center minutes with Chris Kaman, and complements the plodding Caveman nicely with his energy, athleticism and hustle. He's put together perhaps the best month of his career in March, averaging 11.4 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 0.7 blocks per game, while shooting a sparkling 61.0 percent from the floor. Perhaps the most assuring aspect of his March stat line is the 25.0 minutes per game, and as the final games of the season approach, field goal percentage is often one of the most-contested races in roto leagues. Wright ranks seventh in field goal percentage on the 15-day Player Rater, and is also capable of providing some rebounds, blocks and steals now that he's getting consistent run, making him one of the first players to add if you need field goal percentage down the stretch.

Lee

Courtney Lee, SG, Boston Celtics (4.3 percent owned): Jeff Green's 42-point eruption got all the attention in Boston this week, but Lee just put together one of his best stretches of the season statistically, averaging 12.0 points, 4.0 assists and 1.3 3s per game over three contests, and played 40 minutes against the Miami Heat on Monday. Even when judging his play qualitatively, he looks more and more comfortable on the court, beckoning back to the days when he shone for the Orlando Magic in the playoffs as a rookie. Above all, he will consistently rack up steals, as his 2.33 steals per 48 minutes rank 22nd in the league and he's a sure thing to give you over a steal per game going forward, something you can't say of most waiver wire players. Of the 60 players averaging at least 1.2 steals per game, he's the only one owned in fewer than 5 percent of leagues, so if you need a boost in swipes, Lee is a practical option.

McRoberts

Josh McRoberts, PF, Charlotte Bobcats (3.8 percent owned): McRoberts worked his way into the rotation in Charlotte, and now is starting at power forward with pleasant results, averaging 12.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.6 steals and 0.8 blocks per game over his past five games with three double-doubles in that span. McRoberts is flashing the ability to provide across-the-board production as well as above-average assists for a power forward, so if you want a nice glue player to replace an injured or struggling starter, you can insert McRoberts into your lineup and shouldn't see a significant decline in any category. The move to Charlotte has been beneficial for his value, as his PER, total rebounding rate, usage rate and percentage of shots at the rim have all increased significantly since the relocation, and earned him increased run that has given him fantasy value.

Wilkens

Damien Wilkins, SG, Philadelphia 76ers (3.7 percent owned): I reserve a special corner of my heart for players like Wilkins, as he's a former member of the Seattle Supersonics, the team which owns my undying love. But he's been relatively anonymous over the past several seasons, as he hasn't averaged 20 minutes per game since his Seattle days, although he's starting at the 2 in Philly, and has scored at least 12 points in six of the past eight contests. With Jason Richardson out for the season and Nick Young out of the rotation, Wilkins is averaging 11.0 points on 53.3 percent shooting with 0.8 3s, 1.0 blocks and 0.6 steals in March. At 6-foot-6, 225 pounds, Wilkins possesses nice size for a shooting guard, which helps him accrue blocks at an above-average rate for the position, as he's one of just five shooting guards in the league averaging at least 1.0 blocks per-48 minutes. Now that he's starting, Wilkins has emerged as a steady deep-league option who won't blow you away in any specific category but provides just enough in multiple categories to warrant a deep-league roster spot.

Blake

Steve Blake, PG, Los Angeles Lakers (3.6 percent owned): The Lakers are better when he's in the lineup (their record is 16-21 without Blake and 20-12 with him), Mike D'Antoni has apparently coveted him for years, and now things are finally clicking for Blake. He missed most of December and January and it took time for him to assimilate to the new-look Lakers and round back into form. He's played at least 34 minutes in each of the Lakers' past four contests, and is averaging 11.4 points, 5.8 assists, 2.4 3s and 1.4 steals per game in his past five. Blake provides the three stats you depend upon from a point guard -- assists, steals and 3s -- and his shooting has improved with time, as his 56.1 true shooting percentage is the second highest in his career. His PER is the best it's been with the Lakers, as D'Antoni is figuring out how to utilize his unique skill set most effectively, and now that he's getting consistent run is worth owning in any format, especially if you don't need much scoring but could benefit from a boost in assists, steals and 3s.

Douglas

Toney Douglas, PG/SG, Sacramento Kings (2.1 percent owned): Yep, he's on the Kings. Good chance you forgot about that, but he's playing well off the bench like he did for bursts in Houston, and appears to have solidified the backup point guard role. He's notched double digits in three straight games, including a 19-point, 7-assist, 3 3-pointer effort on Tuesday, and his career marks of 1.3 3s and 0.9 steals in just 20.6 minutes per game illustrate his fruitfulness in those categories when he's given minutes. His production has come out of nowhere, and he's available in most leagues, and possesses a special blend of skills that will allow him be a surprisingly effective addition to teams in deep formats now that he's a critical cog in the Kings' guard rotation.

Ross

Terrence Ross, SG, Toronto Raptors (0.2 percent owned): His athleticism was on display at the dunk contest, and those tools should eventually translate into nice hustle stats for the talented rookie. But right now, his primary contribution is in the 3-point department, as he's averaging 1.0 3s per game in just 16.7 minutes. He's seen increased run recently, averaging 18.9 minutes per game in March compared to 10.1 per game in February, and has played at least 24 minutes in each of his past four games. In that span, he's averaging 12.0 points on 51.4 percent shooting with 1.3 3s and 1.3 steals per game, and should be a suitable source of points, 3s and steals going forward as he sees increased playing time down the stretch. He's chock full of upside, and should provide consistent 3s with the occasional big night going forward now that he's getting more opportunities in Toronto.

 

[HacheMan]

Wade quietly having fantastic season

By Seth Landman, Special to ESPN.com

Dwyane Wade's recent play is getting overlooked a bit between the streak and the fact that everyone is realizing that LeBron James is playing better basketball than anyone we've seen in at least 15 years (and though it scares me to say it, maybe longer). There's a million things we could talk about with LeBron, and the fact that he pulled out a triple-double on a night when his shot wasn't falling and sparked a 27-point comeback is, of course, totally amazing.
I want to look at Wade a little, though, because while he was quiet Wednesday night in the Heat's big comeback win over the Cavs, his post-All-Star break numbers are almost as astonishing as LeBron's. He's now up to 23.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 2.3 steals and 56.1 percent shooting from the floor, all significant improvements on his season averages. He's not blocking shots the way he used to, and he's becoming the sort of veteran player who, on a night like Wednesday when he doesn't have it going, is more and more willing to play facilitator and attack less on offense. That said, the Wade we've seen since the break is probably still a top-5 fantasy player overall.

[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Al Horford, Hawks: 26 points (11-for-20 FG, 4-for-4 FT), 15 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks versus the Bucks.
LeBron James, Heat: 25 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks, 3 3-pointers versus the Cavaliers.
Brook Lopez, Nets: 38 points (15-for-22 FG), 11 rebounds, 2 blocks versus the Mavericks.
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Serge Ibaka, Thunder: 2 points (1-for-4 FG), 6 rebounds, 1 steal, 2 blocks versus the Grizzlies.
Courtney Lee, Celtics: 5 points, 1 assist, 2 steals versus the Hornets.
David Lee, Warriors: 10 points (4-for-17 FG), 12 rebounds, 2 steals versus the Spurs.



<!-- end inline 1 -->
• Josh McRoberts continues to put up big numbers while starting for the Bobcats. The fantasy goodness will last only as long as his playing time remains high, but it's worth noting that McRoberts is averaging 12.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.6 steals and 52.3 percent shooting from the floor over his past five games; those are valuable fantasy numbers from a big man.

• Al Horford made all four free throws he attempted Wednesday night for the Hawks against the Bucks, and while that might seem like the most boring of all possible stats to quote here, it really isn't. A 73.6 percent free throw shooter for his career (with a couple of seasons just under 80 percent), Horford has been a disaster at the line this year, and it's hurting what has been his best ever fantasy season. On the bright side, he's now up to 66.7 percent since the break, which is at least digestible. It's the only thing keeping him from warranting a first-round fantasy pick next year, so it's something to keep an eye on down the stretch.

• Jeremy Lin has now scored 20-plus points in three straight games for the Rockets after Wednesday night's dismantling of the Jazz. Lin is averaging 18.6 points on 56.5 percent shooting over his past five games, but the most exciting thing about him of late is the fact that he's shooting 41 percent on 3-pointers since the All-Star break. The Rockets need him to be a capable spot-up shooter, and he's going to have even bigger fantasy value next season if he can keep making 3s.

• Wesley Johnson keeps putting up decent numbers every now and then for the Suns, but it's worth remembering that he's simply not very good. He averaged 16 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.5 3s over the past two games, but he has needed 37.5 minutes per game to accumulate those numbers, and his percentages are all terrible. There's nothing worth seeing here in fantasy, so don't bother picking him up following last night's 18-point performance (in a nine-point loss at home to the Wizards).


[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• As always, when the Bulls have injuries in the backcourt, you want to make sure you play Nate Robinson. Robinson has a nice matchup against Damian Lillard and the Trail Blazers, and Lillard's defense isn't nearly as polished as his work on the other end. Last time out, Robinson had 34 points, with six 3-pointers, and racked up seven assists, albeit in an overtime game against the Nuggets. He should be good this time out, too.

• Denver's Wilson Chandler is doubtful for Thursday's matchup with the 76ers, which probably means you should have Corey Brewer in your lineup if he's not already there. Brewer is averaging 13.6 points and 2.4 steals over his past five games, and the steals are clearly the thing you'd be looking for if you started him.


[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
Ricky Rubio didn't look great his last time out (Monday night against the Grizzlies), playing 21 minutes and managing just two points, two rebounds and two assists, but he's also just a week or so removed from a monster triple-double in a blowout win over the Spurs. Rubio is listed as probable for Thursday night's game against the Kings because of a groin injury, and should he find his way into the lineup, the Kings' defense at the point of attack is so haphazard and bad that Rubio has to be my pick here. Another triple-double is possible.

 

[HacheMan]

Sixers have strong week ahead in Fastbreak

By Tom Carpenter
ESPN.com

All head-to-head points leagues are in the throes of playoff competition, and we continue to churn toward the end of the Fastbreak season, with just three full weeks of games before the final half-week finale to the 2012-13 NBA regular season. As always, the weekly schedule is critical for maxing out player production in both formats. Below, I will cover a number of quality Fastbreak players who benefit from good schedules and low market values. But first, let's take a quick look at Week 23 schedules, which all points-leaguers will want to consider when working the waiver wire over the weekend.
As I've noted for several weeks now, the Minnesota Timberwolves and New York Knicks continue to hold the best stretch-run schedules; they have four games each of the next three weeks. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Memphis Grizzlies, Orlando Magic, Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards roll four times in Week 22 and Week 23 before dropping off to three- or two-game runs in Week 24. The Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, New Orleans Hornets and Philadelphia 76ers are short-term plays, because they hit the hardwood for four games in Week 22 before rolling just thrice the following week.
Of the remaining teams that play only three times this week, the Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings don't have any more four-game weeks this season. That means that although you can make a case for using Kevin Durant due to his epic production, you will not be garnering maximum value on him or any of the other quality points-league players from those NBA squads.
Guards
Jrue Holiday (9.8), Philadelphia 76ers: Since the Sixers play only three times next week, Holiday will be a short-term rental. However, aside from his four-Fastbreak-point dud against the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday, he has been racking up excellent points-league stats in recent weeks. That includes three games of at least 30 points surrounding that four-point performance. Week 22 brings a very favorable schedule (@UTA, MIL, @CLE, CHA), which makes him worth the investment if you have the requisite cap space.
John Wall (8.2), Washington Wizards: Thanks to missing the start of the season and a slow ramp up in his production, Wall remains an excellent value at just $8.2 million. Yet he has been on a tear for quite some time now, scoring at least 30 Fastbreak points in four recent games before racking up 22 and 17 in his past two contests. The Wiz still have two more four-game weeks ahead of them, which means you can lock him into your lineup through Week 23. With a downside in the upper teens in FB points and an upside of 35-plus, he provides one of the top production/price ratios this week and next.
Ricky Rubio (7.3), Minnesota Timberwolves: I'm coming back to Rubio again due to his excellent play in recent weeks, continuing strong schedule (four games each of the next three weeks) and ridiculously cheap price. However, using him this week won't come without some risk. He's nursing a sore groin, which is particularly concerning when we consider that he's still working his way back from a torn ACL. To make matters worse, his four-game schedule includes potentially difficult battles with the Lakers, Thunder and Grizzlies. On the upside, all three of those games are at home and his other tilt is a road game against the beatable Detroit Pistons. So long as he appears to be over his groin injury this weekend, he remains a terrific Week 22 value.
Forwards
Zach Randolph (9.7), Memphis Grizzlies: Z-Bo has struggled against quality competition lately (15 FB points versus LAC, 8 versus OKC), but he has done well in his other recent games (at least 22 FB points in each of his four games since returning from injury), and he won't have to worry about tough comp in Week 22. That's because the Grizzlies' four games come against the Wiz, Knicks, Rockets and Wolves. It's a solid setup for the big man, who typically carries a steady hand in points leagues. Plus the Griz run another four games in Week 23.
Thaddeus Young (9.2), Philadelphia 76ers: Young's streak of six games with at least 22 points came to an end Wednesday, with a 13-point performance in a road tilt against the Clippers, which he followed up with 14 points Thursday on the road against the Nuggets. This week, the schedule is friendlier, though, as the Sixers face the Jazz (road), Bucks, Cavs (road) and Bobcats. Like Holiday above, Young's a one-week rental due to their three-game slate in Week 23, but he carries a load of upside and comes at a reasonable price.
Anthony Davis (8.8), New Orleans Hornets: Pau Gasol is tempting at the same price ($8.8 million), but I'd rather take the younger guy who has been healthy over the older guy coming off an injury. Of course even if healthy, the rookie isn't a safe play because he's inconsistent from game to game and has some tough battles ahead (DEN, LAC, MIA, CLE). Nonetheless, there aren't a lot of obvious bargains at forward this week, so if you are bumping up against your salary cap, Davis makes for a good roll-the-dice play in Week 23.
Center
Nikola Vucevic (9.5), Orlando Magic: He hit a little bump in the road this week when he missed Wednesday's game due to an illness, but he should be over that long before Week 23 gets under way. The Magic still have four games in Week 22 and Week 23, and his contract still remains far cheaper than the other elite centers. In other words, he's the safest and most affordable upside play at this position.
Spencer Hawes (8.1), Philadelphia 76ers: It pains me to recommend Hawes, because he has fooled us so many times by posting quality stats for a week or two before turning back into a fantasy pumpkin. But you can't get around the fact that Hawes has been a well-rounded fantasy beast lately, with at least 21 Fastbreak points in six of his past seven games and at least 33 points three times over that stretch, including Thursday night's 33-point outing versus the Nugs. I will be surprised if he keeps up this pace over the next week, but I can't deny the bargain he is at just $8.1 million and that it's worth the roll of the dice to use him in Week 23.

 

[HacheMan]

Weekly Dish: March stats, trends

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com

With another month nearly in the books, it's time for another game of fun with numbers, this time focusing on recent trends and splits for the month of March.
[h=3]The Top 130[/h]Note: Brian McKitish's Top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2012-13 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses.1. Kevin Durant, OKC (1)
2. LeBron James, MIA (2)
3. Chris Paul, LAC (3)
4. James Harden, HOU (4)
5. Russell Westbrook, OKC (5)
6. Stephen Curry, GS (6)
7. Dwyane Wade, MIA (7)
8. Paul George, IND (8)
9. Kobe Bryant, LAL (9)
10. Deron Williams, BKN (11)
11. Carmelo Anthony, NY (16)
12. Ty Lawson, DEN (12)
13. Brandon Jennings, MIL (13)
14. Ricky Rubio, MIN (15)
15. Serge Ibaka, OKC (14)
16. Paul Pierce, BOS (18)
17. Damian Lillard, POR (19)
18. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (20)
19. Josh Smith, ATL (23)
20. Al Horford, ATL (25)
21. Brook Lopez, BKN (21)
22. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR (26)
23. Larry Sanders, MIL (22)
24. Jrue Holiday, PHI (27)
25. Joakim Noah, CHI (17)
26. Jeff Teague, ATL (31)
27. David Lee, GS (24)
28. Nicolas Batum, POR (30)
29. John Wall, WSH (36)
30. Blake Griffin, LAC (28)
31. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (29)
32. Mike Conley, MEM (33)
33. Greivis Vasquez, NO (34)
34. Dwight Howard, LAL (35)
35. Al Jefferson, UTAH (38)
36. Kemba Walker, CHA (39)
37. Monta Ellis, MIL (42)
38. Goran Dragic, PHO (40)
39. J.R. Smith, NY (41)
40. Anthony Davis, NO (43)
41. Tim Duncan, SA (46)
42. Greg Monroe, DET (37)
43. Klay Thompson, GS (44)
44. Zach Randolph, MEM (47)
45. Ryan Anderson, NO (45)
46. Tony Parker, SA (NR)
47. Nikola Vucevic, ORL (49)
48. Danilo Gallinari, DEN (50)
49. Jameer Nelson, ORL (52)
50. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (53)
51. Isaiah Thomas, SAC (55)
52. Thaddeus Young, PHI (57)
53. Wesley Matthews, POR (59)
54. Chris Bosh, MIA (48)
55. George Hill, IND (58)
56. Tyreke Evans, SAC (60)
57. Rudy Gay, TOR (32)
58. Roy Hibbert, IND (63)
59. Kenneth Faried, DEN (62)
60. Kevin Garnett, BOS (51)
61. Andre Iguodala, DEN (65)
62. Chandler Parsons, HOU (56)
63. Jose Calderon, DET (54)
64. Luol Deng, CHI (64)
65. Jeremy Lin, HOU (68)
66. Omer Asik, HOU (69)
67. Jamal Crawford, LAC (72)
68. Kyle Lowry, TOR (61)
69. Tristan Thompson, CLE (70)
70. J.J. Hickson, POR (71)
71. Carlos Boozer, CHI (74)
72. Manu Ginobili, SA (75)
73. Steve Nash, LAL (77)
74. Paul Millsap, UTAH (66)
75. Joe Johnson, BKN (78)
76. Jeff Green, BOS (80)
77. David West, IND (67)
78. Amir Johnson, TOR (79)
79. O.J. Mayo, DAL (73)
80. Kawhi Leonard, SA (83)
81. Kevin Martin, OKC (82)
82. Jarrett Jack, GS (84)
83. Nikola Pekovic, MIN (86)
84. Daniel Green, SA (81)
85. Raymond Felton, NY (88)
86. Tyson Chandler, NY (90)
87. Pau Gasol, LAL (104)
88. Andrei Kirilenko, MIN (103)
89. Moe Harkless, ORL (107)
90. Gerald Henderson, CHA (101)
91. Gordon Hayward, UTAH (95)
92. Derrick Williams, MIN (85)
93. Evan Turner, PHI (87)
94. DeMar DeRozan, TOR (96)
95. Nene Hilario, WSH (98)
96. Tobias Harris, ORL (89)
97. Emeka Okafor, WSH (97)
98. Marcus Thornton, SAC (94)
99. Eric Gordon, NO (92)
100. Metta World Peace, LAL (102)
101. Mo Williams, UTAH (105)
102. Nate Robinson, CHI (109)
103. Spencer Hawes, PHI (116)
104. J.J. Redick, MIL (93)
105. Shawn Marion, DAL (124)
106. Ed Davis, MEM (NR)
107. Martell Webster, WSH (129)
108. Jonas Valanciunas, TOR (NR)
109. Shaun Livingston, CLE (121)
110. Andrew Bogut, GS (114)
111. Rodney Stuckey, DET (119)
112. Mario Chalmers, MIA (122)
113. Vince Carter, DAL (110)
114. Carlos Delfino, HOU (100)
115. Dorell Wright, PHI (115)
116. Reggie Evans, BKN (NR)
117. Trevor Ariza, WSH (NR)
118. Kyle Korver, ATL (120)
119. Devin Harris, ATL (128)
120. Josh McRoberts, CHA (NR)
121. Jason Terry, BOS (117)
122. Jerryd Bayless, MEM (NR)
123. Derrick Favors, UTAH (113)
124. Alan Anderson, TOR (NR)
125. Kosta Koufos, DEN (123)
126. Tony Allen, MEM (112)
127. Luis Scola, PHO (NR)
128. Dion Waiters, CLE (99)
129. Wesley Johnson, PHO (NR)
130. Andre Miller, DEN (NR)

 

[HacheMan]

[h=3]Joakim Noah out again with foot injury[/h]By Tom Carpenter, ESPN.com

There are injuries a player can push, and there are injuries he can't push through. A bruised thigh, a slightly sprained ankle, a strained finger and a sore knee are examples of injuries where a player may simply battle through the pain. Plantar fasciitis, on the other hand, is a perfect example of an injury that will heal only with extended rest, which means that trying to push through the injury for the long term is basically futile. It will only get worse until the player finally succumbs and misses more games.
That's why when Joakim Noah returned from a three-game respite to rest the plantar fasciitis in his ailing foot in early February and pledged to play though the malady for the remainder of the season, I repeatedly pleaded with people to trade the big fella away before the condition crept back up. This is an injury that requires three weeks or three months to heal, not three games.

Fast-forward to this weekend, and sure enough, after being a fantasy beast for the 18 games since his last rest, Noah missed games Saturday and Sunday, without any warning, because of a recurrence of his plantar fasciitis. This isn't an "I told you so" session here -- OK, maybe a little bit -- but this is one of those things that savvy fantasy owners across all sports need to simply have tucked away in their heads: When a player is diagnosed with a serious case of plantar fasciitis, it's going to be a lingering condition that will not go away without an extended stint in the infirmary.

As for the short term with Noah, the timing couldn't be worse, as head-to-head fantasy teams are deep in the playoffs and roto squads are battling for every rebound and block. He's listed as day-to-day, and unless there's a relevant update regarding his status prior to the deadline to set weekly lineups this evening, his owners are going to have a very difficult call to make, because the Bulls play only three games this week. The only upside for Noah is that they don't ball until Wednesday against the Miami Heat, so perhaps five days of rest will allow him to give it a go for the short term.

The one thing we do know for certain is that his condition won't fully heal until the season is long over. Be sure to remember that the next time one of your players is diagnosed with plantar fasciitis.


[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]SUNDAY, MARCH 24[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Goran Dragic, Suns: 31 points (10-for-19 FG, 10-for-12 FT), 9 rebounds and 12 assists against the Nets.
Wesley Johnson, Suns: 21 points (7-for-18 FG, 2-for-3 FT), 5 3-pointers, 5 boards and 2 steals versus the Nets.
Al Horford, Hawks: 24 points (10-for-16 FG, 4-for-4 FT), 7 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 steals against the Bucks.
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Kirk Hinrich, Bulls: 8 points (3-for-12 FG, 2-for-7 3s), 2 boards, 3 dimes and 2 turnovers against the Wolves.
Andrei Kirilenko, Jazz: 4 points (2-for-6 FG), 3 boards, 1 assist and 3 turnovers versus the Bulls.
Danny Green, Spurs: 9 points (2-for-11 FG, 2-for-6 3s), 3 rebounds, zero assists and 2 turnovers against the Rockets.



<!-- end inline 1 -->
• Ersan Ilyasova returned Sunday from a three-game absence to rest his sore back and hip. The time off appeared to work; he torched the Atlanta Hawks for 19 points and 10 boards, though he made only seven of his 16 field goal attempts. The only bummer is that the Milwaukee Bucks play only three games this week (before two weeks of four-game sets), but he should be a solid play overall this week.

• On the heels of a zero-point dud Thursday, Dorell Wright popped off 22 points (6-for-13 FG), 6 assists and 3 boards Sunday. The intriguing thing was that all six of the shots he nailed were 3-pointers. In 13 games this month, Wright is averaging 2.5 3-pointers per game and has hit 45.2 percent of his shots beyond the arc. I'm intrigued to see where he ends up as a free agent this offseason, because if he can land a starting role on a team where he can get off five to six 3s per game, he could be an intriguing source of 3s next season.

• Andrei Kirilenko showed some signs of life with 20 points and 7 rebounds Friday, but he has been completely useless in his other four games since returning to action. He has missed all seven of his 3-point shots and has only 2 steals and 3 blocks in those five tilts. He has played right about 25 minutes per game, but he clearly is not fully healthy. With four games each of the next three weeks, you probably have little choice but to toss him into your weekly lineups and cross your fingers that he'll get over the hump and make an impact during the stretch run.

• Michael Kidd-Gilchrist blocked three shots Saturday and had a double-double (13 points, 10 rebounds) Sunday. The real key Sunday was that he played nearly 32 minutes, the most court action he has seen since March 6. Seemingly, the Bobcats should turn the rookie loose in the waning weeks of the season, so he is a player to keep a close eye on. He's available in more than 60 percent of ESPN leagues.


[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Dwyane Wade tried to battle though a bruised knee that he sustained a week ago, but he was finally shut down for Sunday's game. The injury doesn't appear to be too serious, but he probably will be a game-time call Monday against the Orlando Magic. The Heat play four games this week, so hopefully, he will shake off the ailment and play at least three of them.

• Toronto Raptors coach Dwane Casey admitted that Rudy Gay's nagging back injury could force him to miss the remainder of the season. It seems he'll surely miss some of the three games the Raps have scheduled for Week 22, which makes him a shaky play, at best.

• Stephen Curry hopes to play through his latest ankle sprain Monday evening against the Los Angeles Lakers. You'll want to check for updates, though, as game time nears.

• The New York Knicks hope to have Tyson Chandler back in the mix Tuesday against the Boston Celtics, but there is no guarantee at this point. They play three more games this week, so he may be a decent roll-the-dice option at center if you have to set your lineup Monday.

• The Magic probably will face the Heat on Monday without the services of Nikola Vucevic, who is dealing with a concussion that has kept him out for two games. Obviously he won't hit the hardwood again until he passes his concussion protocol, so he may well miss more action this week.

• Meanwhile, teammate Arron Afflalo is done for the season because of a strained right hamstring. He acquitted himself pretty well in his scorer's role with the Magic this season by scoring in the upper teens with good assist totals and field goal percentage for significant stretches of the season. He's a better fit as a complementary scorer, though, a role he likely will have next season.


[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
It's a light slate of games Tuesday evening, as only six teams will play. The pickings at guard are particularly slim, as Chris Paul is the only sure-fire stud option available. For the other Fastbreak guard spot, I'm intrigued by point guards Jose Calderon and Ricky Rubio, who face each other in Minnesota. I think I will go with Rubio, because it's a home game for him and he has a little higher ceiling.

 

[HacheMan]

Maximizing games key for stretch run

By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

At a certain point, you have to let go.

The team you so painstakingly constructed last Halloween is reaching the end of its road. Hopefully, that team is looking good in the playoffs or cruising to a rotisserie win of multicategorical dominance.

But if you're in contention, these are serious times.

And at this stage of the season, fantasy basketball largely boils down to one skill: maximizing your amount of games played.

If you're not butting up against the "max games" counter across several positions, you're going to need to start making some tough decisions. You're going to have to start cutting some names.

It's just natural selection at work. At this stage you have to start asking yourself if it's worth hanging onto a player who plays fewer games down the stretch. Even if, once upon a time, you spent a high draft pick or dollar amount on that player.

We're coming up on the three-weeks-left mark. At this juncture, you have to be brutal and pour it on with regard to sheer volume.

And some players -- even people who are 100 percent owned -- don't play enough games down the stretch to outplay Player X.

"Player X" is my term for a player owners can readily construct out of players currently occupying the waiver wire. And Player X isn't flashy, but he's a busy man.

By next week, if a well-regarded player has only eight games to play, but you can manufacture 10-12 games out of Player X at the same position? It may be time to wish the well-regarded player the best and show him the door.


I know it might sound crazy to recommend cutting, say, Kenneth Faried. He's a "100 percenter," that hot sleeper we all told you to draft. He's delivered an acceptable level of production for someone averaging only 28.6 minutes per game. And he's playing well down the stretch (12.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.8 blocks per game over the past seven days).

But look at the final three weeks of Denver's schedule. Just three games, three games, and then two games. Which means that in most fantasy leagues, Faried has just about peaked in value. Within the next few days, you need to think about jettisoning him to the wire in favor of Player X.

When do I go out and retain Player X's services? Well, as with most fantasy-related subjects, I do a little math.

I make a spreadsheet of readily available players at every position. I then average out the production of the top nine players (over the past seven days) to come up with a composite player; that composite being Player X.

If 10 games of that Player X (power forward edition) outproduces eight games of Faried, then I drop Faried.

And because I'm here to help, I'm going to do some of the math for you.

(To get these averages, I took at least the top 10 players available at each position in at least 40 percent of leagues … and averaged out their production over the past seven days. I say "at least" because at some positions, there were so many quality players available that I was able to go a little deeper. Small forward ran 14 players deep, plenty of talent at that spot.)

Here are Player X's per-game averages by position:

Point guard
11.0 points, 2.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.2 3-pointers, 0.8 steals, 0.2 blocks, .441 field goal percentage, .828 free throw percentage

Shooting guard
11.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.4 3-pointers, 1.1 steals, 0.4 blocks, .440 field goal percentage, .857 free throw percentage

Small forward
13.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.5 3-pointers, 1.1 steals, 0.6 blocks, .472 field goal percentage, .798 free throw percentage

Power forward
11.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.4 3-pointers, 0.9 steals, 0.7 blocks, .486 field goal percentage, .712 free throw percentage

Center
10.1 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.2 3-pointers, 0.6 steals, 1.3 blocks, .501 field goal percentage, .771 free throw percentage

Nothing mind-blowing here (especially at center), but these are some respectable averages (especially at small forward).

As much as I don't like seeing other owners scooping up the players I so richly connived to acquire, this stage is about the ground game. And there are some middle-of-the-road players who are going to get out-volumed.

I'm not saying you want to cut Chris Paul (he is looking at a 3-3-2 close to his season), but there might be other 100 percent-owned Clippers that merit exclusion from your stretch-run rosters.

One benefit in using Player X is your ability to target specific areas of production.

Need help in 3-pointers? At point guard, take a look at a Jerryd Bayless or Mike James. If you need a stretch four or long-bombing center? There's Patrick Patterson or Byron Mullens.

And don't forget that a lot of bigger names -- especially names on playoff teams -- get rested down the stretch. David West is nursing a back injury. He has only a 3-2-2 closing schedule. I'm betting West gets some time on the bench to recuperate. Even if he plays, his minutes could be limited.

Here are some teams with particularly poor closing schedules:
Denver Nuggets (3-3-2)
Los Angeles Clippers (3-3-2)
Indiana Pacers (3-3-2)
Phoenix Suns (3-3-2)
Sacramento Kings (3-3-2)
Oklahoma City Thunder (3-3-2)
Detroit Pistons (4-2-2)
Orlando Magic (4-2-2)
Utah Jazz (4-2-2)
Atlanta Hawks (4-2-2)

Here are some players who could warrant endgame cuts: Faried, Jamal Crawford, Jameer Nelson, Kevin Martin and Gordon Hayward. Remember that centers are hard to come by on the wire, while solid small forwards and power forwards are readily available.

Let's say you're the devious type. Want a more Machiavellian benefit to going with Player X? How about fooling other owners into cutting their more productive, higher-volume players for a low-volume player with bigger name value.

Say in a week or so, David West is sitting on the wire. A lot of owners will cut a lesser-known player to pick up West, even if West is playing two fewer games. Believe me, it happens.

Just remember; in the final two weeks of the season, a Milwaukee Buck is going to play 50 percent more games than an Indiana Pacer.

Maximize your games, and don't be afraid to cut a bigger name. It's all-hands-on-deck time.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=3]Evan Turner's inconsistency continues[/h]By Tom Carpenter, ESPN.com

If all had gone according to plan for the Philadelphia 76ers this season, Jrue Holiday's breakout campaign would have been paired with Andrew Bynum's domination in the paint, while Evan Turner would have replaced Andre Iguodala's versatile role on the wing with his own coming-out party.

Everyone knows how Bynum turned out, but often lost amid the latest Bynum knee surgery and bowling reports is the fact that Turner has not lived up to expectations.

Monday's game -- 6 points (2-for-6 FG), 6 rebounds, 0 assists, 3 turnovers -- was the latest example, but March has been filled with awful box scores. Consider that he has shot less than 15 percent from the field in a game twice this month, and on Thursday, Turner turned the rock over six times without dishing a single dime.

He's not even really teasing us with more than the occasional decent game or two (like back-to-back double-doubles to start the month), and he doesn't steal enough balls (0.9 per game this season) to make a difference in that department. Even more perplexing is that he has shot pretty well from beyond the arc this season -- 36.2 percent overall, with three months of at least 38.7 percent -- but he hasn't averaged more than 2.2 3-point attempts per game in any month, so he's not even contributing as a 3-point threat.

In the short term, there is little reason to ride him out as the season winds down. Looking ahead to next season, he may have the opportunity to prove himself to be a genuine NBA playmaker, but he has shown no reason to believe that will come to fruition. Unless he has a red-hot summer, I expect that I will be shying away from Turner during drafts next fall.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]MONDAY, MARCH 25[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Jameer Nelson, Magic: 27 points (4-5 FT), 5 rebounds, 12 assists, 5 3-pointers, 2 steals against the Heat
Klay Thompson, Warriors: 22 points, 6 3-pointers, 4 rebounds, 2 steals versus the Lakers
John Wall, Wizards: 47 points (13-22 FG, 19-24 FT), 7 rebounds, 8 assists, 2 3-pointers against the Grizzlies
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Tony Allen, Grizzlies: 3 points (1-6 FG), 0 assists, 3 turnovers versus the Wizards
D.J. Augustin, Pacers: 6 points (1-6 FG), 2 rebounds, 5 assists, 6 turnovers versus the Hawks
Beno Udrih, Magic: 7 points (1-9 FG), 4 rebounds, 5 assists against the Heat



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• The New Orleans Hornets played Monday against the Denver Nuggets without their starting backcourt, as both Greivis Vasquez and Eric Gordon sat out with ankle injuries. The good news for them is that Vazquez appeared close to playing, so he may be back for their next game, while Gordon at least wasn't sidelined due to his troublesome knee. In their absence, Brian Roberts went berserk with 13 points (5-for-10 FG), 18 assists and 5 rebounds in 41 minutes. The last time he topped the 40-minute mark (March 10), he had 9 points and 9 boards, so he's acquitted himself pretty well when given the chance. If Vasquez and Gordon are slow to return, Roberts could be worth a roll of the dice.

• John Wall was already hot this month, but he exploded for 47 points (13-for-22 FG, 19-for-24 FT), 8 dimes and 7 rebounds against the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday. If he manages to finish the season healthy and with continued stellar play, fantasy owners are going to draft him in the second round next season. To really earn that draft spot, he is going to have to learn to shoot 3-pointers better, though, since he is a career 24.7 percent shooter from beyond the arc.

• Stephen Curry battled through his latest ankle malady Monday and looked no worse for wear, scoring 25 points to go with 10 dimes, 7 boards and 3 3s, though his shooting (9-for-24 FG) left a lot to be desired. Curry's bum ankles have been an ongoing issue this season, but he has somehow managed to battle through the pain most of the time. Let's hope he will continue to do so as the season winds down.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Dwyane Wade skipped his second straight game Monday due to a sore right knee, but he said he expects to return to action when the Miami Heat take their epic win streak back to his Chicago roots Wednesday.

• Things aren't nearly as rosy for Kevin Garnett, who is expected to miss about two weeks of action due to inflammation in his ankle. The injury doesn't sound too serious, but it couldn't have come at a worse time for fantasy squads. Jeff Green should get the chance to shine while KG is sidelined.

• Tyson Chandler's sore neck has improved enough that he may be cleared to return on Tuesday or Wednesday. You'll need to check for updates as game time nears this evening, but if he is active, it seems safe to plug him back into your lineup.

• It remains unclear when Ty Lawson will return from his heel injury. He missed his third straight game Monday, and while Andre Miller didn't play well in his place (9 points, 6 dimes and 3 turnovers), he remains a must-start guard as long as Lawson is sidelined. The Nuggets play next on Wednesday against the San Antonio Spurs.

• Chris Paul is dealing with some swelling in his left knee, so he could skip Tuesday's tilt with the Dallas Mavericks. If that becomes the case, Eric Bledsoe should be a quality fill-in at the point. All CP3 owners should probably add Bledsoe as insurance, in case CP3's knee ailment lingers.

• Martell Webster finally succumbed to his abdominal strain and skipped Monday's game as a result. Considering the nature of abdominal muscle injuries, he could be out a while longer. Trevor Ariza and Chris Singleton should pick up some extra minutes and touches, but neither is going to match the strong play we have seen from Webster in recent weeks.

[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
There are plenty of games Wednesday, which means there are plenty of high-end Fastbreak options. At center, I'm going to go with Al Horford. He has been playing some great basketball recently and has a terrific matchup against the beatable Toronto Raptors' frontcourt. He should be a shoo-in for 20-plus points, and 30-plus points is well within reach.

 

[HacheMan]

Weekly Dish: March stats, trends

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com

With another month nearly in the books, it's time for another game of fun with numbers, this time focusing on recent trends and splits for the month of March.
[h=3]The Top 130[/h]Note: Brian McKitish's Top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2012-13 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses.1. Kevin Durant, OKC (1)
2. LeBron James, MIA (2)
3. Chris Paul, LAC (3)
4. James Harden, HOU (4)
5. Russell Westbrook, OKC (5)
6. Stephen Curry, GS (6)
7. Dwyane Wade, MIA (7)
8. Paul George, IND (8)
9. Kobe Bryant, LAL (9)
10. Deron Williams, BKN (11)
11. Carmelo Anthony, NY (16)
12. Ty Lawson, DEN (12)
13. Brandon Jennings, MIL (13)
14. Ricky Rubio, MIN (15)
15. Serge Ibaka, OKC (14)
16. Paul Pierce, BOS (18)
17. Damian Lillard, POR (19)
18. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (20)
19. Josh Smith, ATL (23)
20. Al Horford, ATL (25)
21. Brook Lopez, BKN (21)
22. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR (26)
23. Larry Sanders, MIL (22)
24. Jrue Holiday, PHI (27)
25. Joakim Noah, CHI (17)
26. Jeff Teague, ATL (31)
27. David Lee, GS (24)
28. Nicolas Batum, POR (30)
29. John Wall, WSH (36)
30. Blake Griffin, LAC (28)
31. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (29)
32. Mike Conley, MEM (33)
33. Greivis Vasquez, NO (34)
34. Dwight Howard, LAL (35)
35. Al Jefferson, UTAH (38)
36. Kemba Walker, CHA (39)
37. Monta Ellis, MIL (42)
38. Goran Dragic, PHO (40)
39. J.R. Smith, NY (41)
40. Anthony Davis, NO (43)
41. Tim Duncan, SA (46)
42. Greg Monroe, DET (37)
43. Klay Thompson, GS (44)
44. Zach Randolph, MEM (47)
45. Ryan Anderson, NO (45)
46. Tony Parker, SA (NR)
47. Nikola Vucevic, ORL (49)
48. Danilo Gallinari, DEN (50)
49. Jameer Nelson, ORL (52)
50. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (53)
51. Isaiah Thomas, SAC (55)
52. Thaddeus Young, PHI (57)
53. Wesley Matthews, POR (59)
54. Chris Bosh, MIA (48)
55. George Hill, IND (58)
56. Tyreke Evans, SAC (60)
57. Rudy Gay, TOR (32)
58. Roy Hibbert, IND (63)
59. Kenneth Faried, DEN (62)
60. Kevin Garnett, BOS (51)
61. Andre Iguodala, DEN (65)
62. Chandler Parsons, HOU (56)
63. Jose Calderon, DET (54)
64. Luol Deng, CHI (64)
65. Jeremy Lin, HOU (68)
66. Omer Asik, HOU (69)
67. Jamal Crawford, LAC (72)
68. Kyle Lowry, TOR (61)
69. Tristan Thompson, CLE (70)
70. J.J. Hickson, POR (71)
71. Carlos Boozer, CHI (74)
72. Manu Ginobili, SA (75)
73. Steve Nash, LAL (77)
74. Paul Millsap, UTAH (66)
75. Joe Johnson, BKN (78)
76. Jeff Green, BOS (80)
77. David West, IND (67)
78. Amir Johnson, TOR (79)
79. O.J. Mayo, DAL (73)
80. Kawhi Leonard, SA (83)
81. Kevin Martin, OKC (82)
82. Jarrett Jack, GS (84)
83. Nikola Pekovic, MIN (86)
84. Daniel Green, SA (81)
85. Raymond Felton, NY (88)
86. Tyson Chandler, NY (90)
87. Pau Gasol, LAL (104)
88. Andrei Kirilenko, MIN (103)
89. Moe Harkless, ORL (107)
90. Gerald Henderson, CHA (101)
91. Gordon Hayward, UTAH (95)
92. Derrick Williams, MIN (85)
93. Evan Turner, PHI (87)
94. DeMar DeRozan, TOR (96)
95. Nene Hilario, WSH (98)
96. Tobias Harris, ORL (89)
97. Emeka Okafor, WSH (97)
98. Marcus Thornton, SAC (94)
99. Eric Gordon, NO (92)
100. Metta World Peace, LAL (102)
101. Mo Williams, UTAH (105)
102. Nate Robinson, CHI (109)
103. Spencer Hawes, PHI (116)
104. J.J. Redick, MIL (93)
105. Shawn Marion, DAL (124)
106. Ed Davis, MEM (NR)
107. Martell Webster, WSH (129)
108. Jonas Valanciunas, TOR (NR)
109. Shaun Livingston, CLE (121)
110. Andrew Bogut, GS (114)
111. Rodney Stuckey, DET (119)
112. Mario Chalmers, MIA (122)
113. Vince Carter, DAL (110)
114. Carlos Delfino, HOU (100)
115. Dorell Wright, PHI (115)
116. Reggie Evans, BKN (NR)
117. Trevor Ariza, WSH (NR)
118. Kyle Korver, ATL (120)
119. Devin Harris, ATL (128)
120. Josh McRoberts, CHA (NR)
121. Jason Terry, BOS (117)
122. Jerryd Bayless, MEM (NR)
123. Derrick Favors, UTAH (113)
124. Alan Anderson, TOR (NR)
125. Kosta Koufos, DEN (123)
126. Tony Allen, MEM (112)
127. Luis Scola, PHO (NR)
128. Dion Waiters, CLE (99)
129. Wesley Johnson, PHO (NR)
130. Andre Miller, DEN (NR)

 

[HacheMan]

What's next for top rookies?

By Seth Landman | Special to ESPN.com

Last week, I looked at the future fantasy prospects of some of the league's up-and-comers at the point guard position, mainly because it feels like the top 50 of the Player Rater is disproportionately stockpiled with valuable contributors at that position.

This time around, I wanted to look at that most mysterious of player groups: rookies. As usual, our predictions seem to have been mainly off-base where rookies are concerned, so now, a few weeks before the season concludes, might be a good time to consider these guys with an eye on next season.

I'll include the overall Player Rater ranking for these guys with the caveat that many of them have missed games or gone through growing pains that won't be as prominent as they gain experience in the pro game. Even so, the current overall ranking for each player is in parentheses.

Lillard

Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers (16): Looking back, Lillard's Average Draft Position of 77.4 is pretty impressive for an unproven player; Jose Calderon and George Hill, just for reference, were each drafted later. Lillard's immense talent, however, came alongside a pretty immense opportunity as the starting point guard right out of the gate on a team with an elite power forward in LaMarcus Aldridge. Lillard's ranking as a top-20 player reflects the fact that he has played in each of the Blazers' 70 games and is fourth in the league in minutes at 38.6 per contest. Per basketball-reference.com, among active players, only Tim Duncan, Shane Battier and LeBron James played more minutes per game as rookies, and among those three, only Duncan managed to play in all 82 games. If Lillard goes the distance, he would find himself in some rare company.

While he's out there, Lillard's not too shabby either. He is in the top 10 in 3-pointers made per game at 2.3 and is 12th in scoring at 19.1 points per game. Those are his best areas, but he also makes 86 percent of his 3.7 free throw attempts per game, which is great, even if you'd like to see him get to the line more given his minutes and usage.

There's still some room for improvement. He's pretty proficient everywhere, but 0.9 steals per game for a point guard playing this many minutes is pretty bad. It would also be nice if he found a way to shoot, say, 45 percent from the floor instead of 43.3. I'm splitting hairs here, though. Even if his minutes dip a bit next season, it should only help him in the long run. He is a top-20 player going forward for sure.

Davis

Anthony Davis, PF/C, New Orleans Hornets (69): Here's where you run into trouble drafting rookies, because Davis has been as good as anyone could have hoped, posting a PER over 21 as a rookie and playing in a respectable 56 of the Hornets' 71 games thus far. Davis has been really, really good, although he has underperformed his ADP (41.3) by a significant amount. Even if you go by per-game averages, his Player Rater ranking is 42nd, which is basically where he was drafted. Guys like Lillard are few and far between; usually with rookies, we aim too high.

That's all beside the point, though, because I'm talking about the future, and Davis' future is bright. Among active players, only Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and Duncan have posted a rookie PER as high as Davis' while playing as many minutes per game. In his 28.2 minutes, Davis is putting up 13.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.8 blocks and 1.1 steals per game, and when you look at his numbers since the All-Star break, his scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage are all even higher. That's really impressive for a rookie, and it stands to reason that as his minutes climb next season, so will his fantasy value. He is definitely worth a third-round pick as soon as next season, but I'd probably dip into the second.

Kidd-Gilchrist

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Charlotte Bobcats (140): It has been, to put it mildly, an up-and-down season for MKG. After a promising couple of months to start the season, he shot under 40 percent from the floor for all of January and February and hasn't really recovered to a place that gives him much value in fantasy leagues.

Still, there's a lot of potential. He is averaging 1.0 blocks and 0.7 steals per game, and while those numbers don't sound too impressive, they point to the potential for more as his minutes increase as he gets more experience.

On the other hand, with MKG's rebounding numbers tailing off as the season wears on, I have some concerns about whether his game translates to fantasy if he can't boost those defensive stats a bit. I don't think he's ready to make the leap into being a top-100 fantasy option quite yet, and I have a feeling he'll go higher in drafts next year based on name recognition than his game currently warrants.

Beal

Bradley Beal, SG, Washington Wizards (146): Beal's story is something like the reverse of Kidd-Gilchrist's in that his struggles to start the season have given way to some really promising basketball of late. Beal has missed time recently with an ankle injury, but in 10 games since the All-Star break, he is averaging 16.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game while shooting 47.7 percent from the floor and 42.9 percent from behind the 3-point line. Those are really impressive numbers; they almost approximate what Lillard has been doing all season if you swap Lillard's assists for Beal's rebounds.

What has me really excited about Beal's potential is the synergy he seemed to have going with John Wall before he started missing time with the ankle injury. Given the potential for improvement, I would absolutely take Beal next season ahead of lots of top 100 fantasy options at shooting guard, including Ray Allen, Jamal Crawford, J.R. Smith and J.J. Redick.

Drummond

Andre Drummond, PF/C, Detroit Pistons (198): Drummond is a bit of an afterthought because he has missed so much time this season with his back injury, but he'll be back in the lineup soon. It will be interesting to see whether he can get some positive momentum moving into next season. Drummond might have more potential than just about anyone on this list, but he's still some improvement away from being able to stay on the floor for more than 30 minutes per game. Even so, it will be an interesting question as to where he should be drafted next season in fantasy leagues. Would you rather have a sure thing at center like Tiago Splitter (probably a top-100 pick next season) or Drummond's potential? It's something to pay attention to once Drummond returns from his back injury in the coming weeks.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=3]Ricky Rubio looking strong for 2013 drafts[/h]
<CITE class=byline>By Neil Tardy, Special to ESPN.com

Even though three weeks still remain in this fantasy hoops season, Ricky Rubio already has me looking forward to my next fantasy draft.

After Rubio recorded his first career triple-double on March 12, I dared dream of a world where he could maintain a decent field goal percentage. In eight games since, Rubio has averaged 13.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, 7.4 assists and 2.4 steals while shooting (drum roll) 43.2 percent.

I'll go out on a limb and say that fantasy owners will accept that last number, gleefully.

Of course the 22-year-old still has considerable room for improvement. On Tuesday, Rubio dropped a couple of 3-pointers on the largely defenseless Detroit Pistons -- this to go with 14 points on 6-of-9 shooting, nine assists and two steals -- but he'd been just 1-of-8 from downtown over his previous six games, and of course for the season he's an utterly dreadful 22.4 percent from distance.

Here's the thing to keep in mind, though: Rubio is already acknowledged as one of the NBA's premier playmakers, someone who makes his teammates better. But consider his teammates during this post-All-Star break surge. Nikola Pekovic and Andrei Kirilenko both missed several games earlier this month. And Kevin Love? Well, Love and Rubio have been simultaneously active for three games this season. Next season, Rubio should be making plays for better players, and that's perhaps the biggest reason to be excited about his future fantasy potential.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]TUESDAY, MARCH 26[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks: 33 points (12-21 FG), 9 rebounds against the Clippers
Chris Paul, Clippers: 33 points (12-15 FG), 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 3-pointers, 2 steals versus the Mavericks
J.R. Smith, Knicks: 32 points (13-24 FG), 7 rebounds, 3 steals against the Celtics
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Raymond Felton, Knicks: 6 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals versus the Celtics
Andrei Kirilenko, Timberwolves: 9 points (4-9 FG), 2 assists versus the Pistons
Brandon Knight, Pistons: 7 points (3-10 FG), 3 assists against the Timberwolves



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• With Courtney Lee (ankle) sidelined, Jordan Crawford made his first start for the Boston Celtics. Displaying both his passing skill (six assists) and limitations (six turnovers), Crawford finished with 14 points and a pair of 3s in 41 minutes against the New York Knicks. Expect better numbers on Wednesday when the C's visit the depleted Cleveland Cavaliers.

• Hard to believe in light of his 33-point performance against the Dallas Mavericks, but Chris Paul (knee) was a game-time decision for the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday. Despite experiencing swelling in his left knee, Paul logged 39 minutes in the overtime loss. While he figures to be ready to go against the New Orleans Hornets, Paul owners should check for updates later today.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Joakim Noah (foot) will be a game-time decision for the Chicago Bulls, who host the Miami Heat. Dwyane Wade (knee) is expected to return for the Heat, who apparently will attempt to maintain a winning streak of some renown.

• Owners in need of big stats should consider Kyle O'Quinn, who continues to fill in for Nikola Vucevic (concussion). On Wednesday, the Orlando Magic visit the Charlotte Bobcats, who have been yielding to post players all season. In his past three games, O'Quinn is averaging 11.7 points and 9.7 rebounds, though the 6-foot-10 rookie has only one block in that span.

• More injury news, starting with the promising: Rudy Gay (back) practiced Monday and Tuesday and said he will play when the Toronto Raptors host the Atlanta Hawks. Meanwhile, David West (back) and George Hill (groin) could return for the Indiana Pacers, who visit the Houston Rockets.

• Still more injury news, concluding with the bleak. These players are either ruled out or considered unlikely to suit up on Wednesday: Tyson Chandler (bulging disk), Kevin Garnett (ankle), Marc Gasol (abdominal), Joe Johnson (thigh), Ty Lawson (heel), Jermaine O'Neal (calf) and Metta World Peace (knee).
</CITE>

 

[HacheMan]

Working the Wire: Immediate help

By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

I was tweeted a question earlier this week asking whether to drop Marc Gasol for the fantasy playoffs. In hindsight, the answer was no; Gasol returned from his abdominal injury Wednesday. But situations like this are complicated.

When weighing whether to drop an injured player, it all comes down to two questions: Who replaces him in your starting lineup, and what will that player's role be? If you have a capable replacement on your bench and can afford to stash an injured player until he potentially returns for a championship run, don't dump him simply because he's sidelined in favor of a player you won't be starting anyway.

But if there's a difference-maker lurking on the waiver wire and you can't take the risk of burning a roster spot for an injured player during this must-win week, then dropping a question mark for a surefire augmentation to your potential championship team is a valid choice.

Additionally, in cases where a player's status is uncertain -- like Gasol's was -- you run the risk that he'll return, like Gasol did Wednesday night, when he scored 13 points with five rebounds in 36 minutes. Still, it was a viable query, as rosters need careful and calculated analysis and honing if you want to secure a late-season win.

It can also be appropriate to drop a widely owned player who provides in an area where your team has a surplus in order to address a specific deficiency. If you notice that you're well ahead of the pack in a certain category or would win the category each week without the contribution of a player whose strength lies in that category, dropping him for an option that addresses your needs could be worth it.

Here are some worthy late-season additions who are widely available in ESPN leagues:


Brandon Bass, PF/C, Boston Celtics (36.9 percent owned): Bass is picking up some of the slack left by Kevin Garnett (out for at least two weeks because of inflammation in his left ankle), scoring in double digits in seven of the past nine games, including Wednesday's 22 points on 8-for-14 shooting from the floor and 6-for-7 from the stripe. His rebounding is unimpressive for a big man -- several small forwards, such as Paul George and Thaddeus Young, average more rebounds per 48 minutes -- but he provides modest contributions in points, steals and blocks and is historically fruitful in the percentage-based categories.

Bass' 47 percent from the floor this season is the lowest mark since 2006-07, although he is shooting 55.1 percent from the floor in March and is primed to once again boost fantasy teams' production in the category. He's also much more efficient from the floor when starting, as he's shooting 48.2 percent from the starting lineup and 40.3 percent off the bench. But the category that sets him apart is free throw percentage, where he is ranked 10th on the Player Rater over the past 15 days and is 26-for-28 from the stripe this month. Now that Garnett is out, his role on offense has increased and he should get to the line more, as evidenced by recent 8-for-8 and 5-for-5 performances from the stripe. If free throws are an area of weakness, Bass is capable of providing significant assistance from a position that's typically a liability in the category.

Brand

Elton Brand, PF, Dallas Mavericks (36.5 percent owned): Despite his reduction in playing time this season, Brand is averaging more rebounds and blocks per 48 minutes and is still a fine aggregate source of blocks and steals. Over the past 15 days, Brand is averaging 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks per game, and only three other players have accomplished that feat. His healthy field goal percentage is helpful despite his limited attempts, as more than half of his shots come at the rim, so he won't have many nights in which he shoots lower than 40 percent from the field (just three such games since Feb. 6). The Mavs are clinging to playoff hopes, so they likely won't look toward the future and play Jae Crowder over Brand, who played 25 minutes in two of his past three games and is valuable due to his ability to man both frontcourt positions and act as a defensive cornerstone when on the court.

James

Mike James, PG, Mavericks (31.9 percent owned): James has usurped Darren Collison as the starting point guard in Dallas and is averaging 10.3 points, 4.9 assists and 2.2 3-pointers per game in 12 starts this season. Rick Carlisle likes him because of his veteran presence and ability to stretch the floor, and given the team's recent success with James at the helm, I expect him to start for the remainder of the season. He's not multidimensional, as you know exactly what categories you'll get from James on a consistent basis, but if you want heaps of 3s, plentiful assists and decent points, James is in line to be one of those unexpected contributors for fantasy teams down the stretch.

Barnes

Harrison Barnes, SF, Golden State Warriors (11.9 percent owned): He is averaging fewer minutes per game in March than he did in January and February, as the team has leaned on veterans late in games while it clings to playoff hopes. But over his past three games, he is averaging 29 minutes per game -- coach Mark Jackson has gone with a shortened rotation -- and has notched double-digit points in three of his past four. He won't dazzle you in any specific category but can score efficiently and provide some 3s and steals, and he should increase his production with the recent expansion of playing time.

Martin

Kenyon Martin, PF, New York Knicks (11.7 percent owned): Tyson Chandler has missed the past nine games because of a neck injury, and with Amar'e Stoudemire out for the season, Martin has provided fantastic production for the Knicks. He is averaging 12.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 0.8 blocks per game over his past five, scoring in double digits in three of those contests while shooting 73 percent from the floor. The steals and blocks are legit -- averaged 1.0 per game in each category in 42 games off the bench for the Clippers last season -- and anytime he's seeing consistent floor time, he's still a capable fantasy player.

Chandler is considered day-to-day and might return Friday. But the team will want him fresh for the playoffs, so even if Martin's playing time diminishes some when Chandler returns, he has proved to be a viable part of the big-man rotation.

Gibson

Taj Gibson, PF, Chicago Bulls (5.5 percent owned): I've featured him before, so you know I'm a fan of Gibson any time he is getting regular minutes. With Joakim Noah sidelined with plantar fasciitis, Gibson is worth starting and might even be worth holding on to when Noah returns if the Bulls limit the starter's minutes to keep him fresh for the playoffs. When getting increased run, Gibson can provide excellent rebounds and blocks with efficient scoring, and in his past four games since returning from injury, Gibson is averaging 10.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.3 blocks and 0.5 steals per game. His output hinges upon Noah's condition, although Noah's injury is the type that will bother him for the rest of the season, so look for Gibson's production to improve.

Pargo

Jannero Pargo, PG, Charlotte Bobcats (0.2 percent owned): The definition of a journeyman, Pargo is playing for his seventh team in eight years and has secured a second 10-day contract with the Bobcats, as backup Ramon Sessions has been sidelined since early March with a sprained MCL. Pargo has been a sparkplug off the bench, averaging 11 points and 2.3 3s per game with at least one 3-pointer in every game over his past six contests. If you need some points and 3s, Pargo is almost universally available and has been consistently providing 3s in Sessions' absence, although his production will be sporadic since he's in a bench role and his responsibilities will shift on a nightly basis based on game-time circumstances.

Drummond

Andre Drummond, PF/C, Pistons (5.7 percent owned): Drummond might return as soon as Friday, and when he does, he is capable of providing insane per-minute rebounds, blocks and steals. He was averaging 7.5 rebounds, 1.7 blocks and 0.9 steals in just 19.7 minutes per game before going down with a back injury, and although he'll likely be eased back into action, he has the raw tools to help fantasy teams down the stretch in need of defensive stats, especially if you can stomach his wretched free throw percentage (36.5 percent on 2.3 attempts per game).

Burks

Alec Burks, SG, Jazz (0.0 percent owned): Burks is streaky, but he can score in bursts -- as evidenced by his 11 points in eight minutes Sunday and 12 points in the fourth quarter Monday -- and is on one of his hot streaks, notching double digits in four of his past five contests and averaging 10.6 points with 1.0 3s per game in that stretch. He has played at least 20 minutes in four of those five contests and can help desperate deep-league fantasy teams in points, 3s and steals.

 

[HacheMan]

Jimmy Butler shines as starter

<cite class="byline">By Seth Landman, Special to ESPN.com

You might have heard that the Heat lost to the Bulls, ending their 27-game winning streak against a team that was missing its defensive anchor (Joakim Noah, plantar fasciitis) and an important part of its offense (Marco Belinelli, strained abdominal). Enough about that: let's get back to the fantasy stats.

All these Bulls injuries mean Jimmy Butler is back to contributing in a big way. Butler's been a nice story this season, and is averaging 15.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.8 steals and shooting 89.7 percent from the foul line on 4.9 attempts per game as a starter. Those are extremely impressive numbers, even if it's taking him 44.9 minutes per game to accumulate them. If Belinelli or even Noah misses a lot more time, it could be worth keeping Butler around on your roster down the stretch.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]WEDNESDAY, MARCH 27[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Tobias Harris, Magic: 29 points (7-8 FT), 9 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 blocks against the Bobcats
Jeff Teague, Hawks: 24 points (9-15 FG), 4 rebounds, 13 assists versus the Raptors
Isaiah Thomas, Kings: 31 points (10-18 FG), 7 assists, 7 3-pointers against the Warriors
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]DeMar DeRozan, Raptors: 14 points (5-14 FG), 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal versus the Hawks
George Hill, Pacers: 2 points (1-11 FG), 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals versus the Rockets
Brandon Jennings, Bucks: 0 points (0-3 FG), 3 assists, 1 steal against the 76ers



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking back[/h]
• Rising free agent Brandon Jennings was held scoreless for the Bucks by the 76ers in just 13 minutes of playing time on Wednesday night. This appears to be an isolated incident of a player just having a really bad night, but the fact coach Jim Boylan sat Jennings for the entire fourth quarter and the Bucks went on to lose a game they were leading heading into that period is a bit of a concern. Hopefully, Jennings will have more energy next time out and this won't be an issue again, but it's something his fantasy owners need to at least keep an eye on.

• With Nikola Vucevic out of the lineup with flu-like symptoms, the Magic went to Kyle O'Quinn, and the rookie big man responded with 23 points, 11 rebounds and 6 assists. That said, Vucevic should be back soon, and all of this happened against the Bobcats, so it's probably not worth making any roster shake-ups quite yet.

• The Knicks seem to be finding their groove again, or at least J.R. Smith is. The Knicks knocked off the Grizzlies in the Garden, and Smith had 35 points on 10-for-18 shooting from the floor and 12-for-13 shooting from the line. He kicked in seven boards and made three 3-pointers for good measure, and is on fire of late, in general, averaging 25.6 points on 53.6 percent shooting over his past five games.

• As for the Grizzlies, they seem to be leaning more and more on Jerryd Bayless off the bench of late. Bayless had 24 points in the loss to the Knicks, and is averaging 20.0 points in 31.0 minutes of playing time over his past five games. He's still available in most ESPN.com fantasy leagues, and makes a ton of 3s if that's an area where you need help.

• Greg Smith got extended playing time for the Rockets in a loss to the Pacers, and finished with 18 points and 19 rebounds in 32 minutes. He didn't do anything else, and most nights he won't be playing more minutes than Omer Asik, so I wouldn't read too much into this. Smith has had big nights and then gone back to a small role quickly other times this season.

• Reggie Evans had an absolutely monster game for the Nets against the Trail Blazers, racking up 22 points and 26 rebounds in 35 minutes. Evans is not really a good fantasy option most nights, but when he's playing a lot of minutes like he's been playing lately, he's a terrific source of rebounding. If you're trying to make a move in that category, he's worth a look, because while he won't help you in any other areas, the guy is averaging 13.8 rebounds per game since the All-Star break, a number that would lead the league by a sizable margin.

[h=3]Looking ahead[/h]
• The Lakers face the Bucks on Thursday night, and will be without Metta World Peace, but the foursome so many of us feared to start the season looked good on Wednesday night against the Timberwolves, at least on the offensive end. Still, the thing to watch here is Brandon Jennings. As noted above, the Bucks point guard had a bad night on Wednesday, and in recent years, nothing brings a big performance out of a point guard like going up against Steve Nash. Watch out, it could be a fun one.

• David West missed Wednesday night's game for the Pacers against the Rockets with a sprained back, and Tyler Hansbrough filled in admirably with 16 points and eight rebounds in 32 minutes. You could probably expect similar production against the Mavericks on Thursday night, assuming West sits another game.

[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
Kobe Bryant against the Bucks is really tempting, but based on my logic from a couple of paragraphs ago, I'll go with Brandon Jennings.
</cite>

 

[HacheMan]

Ellis, Anthony among best bets for stretch run

By Tom Carpenter
ESPN.com

Week 23 tips off on April Fool's Day, but if you are in the midst of doing everything possible to win your fantasy points league, it's no time to be joking around. That's because you'll set your weekly lineups a maximum of only three more times, since we have just two full weeks and the final half-week of the season before we put a bow on the 2012-13 campaign. You'll need to squeeze out every possible stat you can over that stretch to beat your opponents, which means there is an even bigger premium than usual on maxing out your games played in the waning days of the NBA regular season.
The Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Milwaukee Bucks, Minnesota Timberwolves and New York Knicks are the only teams that have double-digit games remaining (a total of 10 games; 4, 4 and 2 during the final three weeks). You can go ahead and lock in strong players from these teams for the remainder of the season in salary-cap games like Fastbreak.
Every NBA squad plays at least three times in Week 23, but you'll get more run out of players who ball for ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, DAL, DET, HOU, MEM, MIL, MIN, NY, ORL, POR, SA, TOR, Utah and WAS, because these teams hit the hardwood four times this week. All of those teams will play at least three times in Week 24, except the Atlanta Hawks, Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic and Utah Jazz, which have just two games on the slate. Of course, that makes players on those teams short-term rentals if you decide to use them in Week 23.
Guards
Monta Ellis (9.5), Milwaukee Bucks: As noted above, the Bucks are on the short list of teams with 10 games remaining on their schedule. That means that you can lock him in at $9.5 million for the remainder of the season. That's not the cheapest price, but it is considerably cheaper than all of the top-priced guards in the game. In fact, 14 other players will cost you more to lock up this week than Ellis, who has been churning out 20-plus points per game most nights. Toss in a friendly Week 23 schedule (CHA, MIN, @NY, TOR) and Ellis looks particularly appealing this week and beyond.
John Wall (8.5), Washington Wizards: Three of Wall's past five games have resulted in Fastbreak scoring in the mid-teens, which is hardly impressive. However, he has sandwiched some huge games (36 and 50 Fastbreak points) in between, which has evened out to a very solid pace. Prior to that stretch of games, Wall had posted at least 30 FB points in four of his previous five games. This is his final week with four games on the slate, so it's probably your last chance to use him. And considering his upside and tantalizingly low market value, it will be hard to not use him in your Week 23 lineup.
Ricky Rubio (7.5), Minnesota Timberwolves: There isn't much else that can be said about Rubio, as I come back to recommending him for yet another week. His injury-delayed start to the season has left his market value at a ridiculously cheap $7.5 million, and though he hasn't been statistically spectacular in recent games, he's topped 20 FB points in eight of his past 10 games and four of his past five games. Add to that a promising Week 23 schedule (BOS, @MIL, TOR, DET) and a full 10-game slate for the stretch run, and Rubio remains the best overall value at guard the rest of the way.
Forwards
Carmelo Anthony, (9.4), New York Knicks: Since Segment 2 didn't start until after the All-Star break, the fact that Anthony missed six games in March and did next to nothing statistically in a couple of other games this month has left his salary quite low compared to the other elite points-league scorers in the Fastbreak game. In fact, his season-long average of 23.8 FB ppg is fifth-best among forwards, yet his $9.4 million salary ranks 22nd. As if that production-to-cost ratio isn't enticing enough, the Knicks are one of those 10-game teams with four games slated for Weeks 23 and 24 and a pair of games in the Week 25 finale. In other words, Melo is arguably the top Fastbreak forward for the stretch run.
Ersan Ilyasova (8.6), Milwaukee Bucks: Looking for a silver lining after Ilyasova cost you big-time when he missed a few games in the early rounds of your H2H playoffs? Here it is: Ilyasova's Fastbreak market value dipped $200K since last week. That leaves him at a very affordable $8.6 million in Week 23. He has quickly returned to form since his injury absence with games of 17, 20 and 23 FB points. He also has a tasty Week 23 schedule (CHA, MIN, @NY, TOR) and, as mentioned previously, plays 10 games during the final stretch run. Lock him into your lineups and ride him the rest of the way.
Jeff Green (6.8), Boston Celtics: Green has a unique game because he can chip in stats in basically every category, which is helpful in roto leagues, but unless he gets big-time minutes and touches, he doesn't really do enough to make a significant mark in roto leagues. However, when he is used in a full-time starting role, Green can be a tremendous asset in roto leagues. In points leagues, on the other hand, his ability to chip in a little bit in most categories has made a him a reliable contributor, even in a reduced role. Of course, right now Green has a firm grip on an enlarged role on the C's because Kevin Garnett is taking a couple of weeks off to rest his inflamed ankle. He has scored 22 and 28 FB points in his past two games and we can't forget his 51-point explosion against the Miami Heat a couple of weeks ago. Green makes for a very cheap upside play in Week 23.
Center
Larry Sanders (9.1), Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks' big man has been a revelation for his team and fantasy squads alike this season. His epic block totals have made him a bigger impact player in roto leagues, but his ability to churn out double-doubles with a great FG percentage on top of those blocks has made him a tremendous points-league play, too. In the Fastbreak game, his market value remains affordable at $9.1 million, and he's a shoo-in for 15 points most nights and 30-plus points at any given moment. With the Bucks' friendly schedule the rest of the way, you should be able to lock him in this week for the remainder of the season.
Nikola Pekovic (8.1), Minnesota Timberwolves: It took him a little while to get wound back up in fantasy terms after his extended injury absence, but Pek has looked like his usual beastly points league self of late with four games of at least 21 Fastbreak points in four of his past five games and back-to-back 26-point games this week. He goes up against some weak (or weakened) frontcourts in Week 23 (BOS, @MIL, TOR, DET) and has 10 games left on his schedule, which means Pek figures to be the best bang-for-your-buck option at center as the fantasy season winds down.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=3]Dirk Nowitzki finishing strong[/h]
By Josh Whitling, Special to ESPN.com

Dirk Nowitzki has experienced an up-and-down season much like the Mavericks have, averaging 15.2 points per game on 42.3 percent shooting from the floor before the All-Star break but 19.1 points on 51.7 percent shooting since. He'll be a source of contention come draft day next season, as he'll turn 35 in June and has seen his scoring diminish in each of the past four seasons. But as he enters the final year of his contract, Dirk has indicated he'll continue playing beyond next season, and he possesses the type of game that doesn't rely upon athleticism in order to produce numbers. Much like Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett, who have maintained magnificence past the age of 35, Nowitzki is showing he's far from finished, as illustrated by his 21 points, seven rebounds, one 3-pointer, a steal and a block against the Pacers on Thursday. Also like Duncan and Garnett, he'll likely go into next season with so many questions surrounding his potential decline that he'll be a nice value come draft day. Based on his second-half production this season, he's still capable of providing very efficient scoring with fantastic percentages, solid 3-point production and a handful of steals and blocks -- he ranks 10th on the Player Rater over the past 30 days. Many will glance at his final numbers (it will be his worst full season since his rookie year) and figure he's done, but shrewd fantasy owners will select him in the middle rounds and enjoy a still-productive fantasy player with plenty of gas left in the tank.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]THURSDAY, MARCH 28[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]DeMarcus Cousins, Kings: 34 points (12-16 FG, 9-9 FT), 14 rebounds against the Suns
Paul George, Pacers: 24 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 3-pointers, 3 steals versus the Mavericks
Luis Scola, Suns: 25 points (10-13 FG), 7 rebounds against the Kings
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Mike James, Mavericks: 0 points, 4 assists, 1 steal versus the Pacers
J.J. Redick, Bucks: 7 points, 2 rebounds, 1 3-pointer versus the Lakers
David West, Pacers: 7 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists against the Mavericks



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• Kobe Bryant used a crutch to leave the arena Thursday night, and the Lakers said he has a bone spur in his left foot. He didn't appear to be in much pain (something Kobe typically makes clear), and we know he's willing to play through injuries. With most players, I'd be wary of his production in the final games of the season, but Kobe played more than 36 minutes and won't likely allow this to affect his production as the Lakers vie for a playoff berth. I would still start him with confidence in all leagues and expect his typical production.

• Darren Collison might have lost his starting point guard spot to Mike James, but he's still effective from a fantasy perspective, as he scored 10 points with eight assists in 29 minutes off the bench Thursday. He still ranks 66th on the Player Rater over the past 15 days, proving that holding the starting job doesn't mean everything.

• Pau Gasol lumbered his way into 12 points and nine rebounds in 32 minutes against the Bucks, and despite the fact that it appears as if every movement pains him, he's resurfaced as a nice fantasy option down the stretch. He's averaging 14.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and 1.5 steals per game in the past two contests, and has seen his minutes climb in each of the past four games. Even if it'll never make up for the monumental disappointment that this season was for Gasol, he's worth rostering in every format at this point.

• Goran Dragic was rested for his second consecutive game Thursday. Since there appears to be nothing specifically wrong with him, he should return shortly and be ready to continue his recent hot streak. Dragic rattled off five straight double-doubles before this late-season siesta, averaging 20.7 points and 11.0 assists in that stretch. Kendall Marshall did have 13 and 10 assists, respectively, in the two games Dragic missed, so if for some reason it looks like Lindsey Hunter will continue to rest his best player, Marshall become a nice short-term option for assists.

• Wesley Johnson has emerged as a late-season scoring threat for the Suns, and he scored 14 points Thursday, his fifth game in the past six with double figures. Johnson's per-48 minute stats equate to 19.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.4 3s, 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks, so even though he's been a painful disappointment after being drafted fourth overall by Minnesota in the 2010 draft, he's showing glimpses of being a rotation player in the league who is capable of some all-around fantasy contribution. He's owned in just 16.5 percent of ESPN leagues, and if you need some scoring and 3s with a little of everything else, he's a viable late-season addition.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Andre Drummond might return Friday against the Raptors, and even though he is unlikely to provide immediate help for fantasy teams as the Pistons ease him back into playing time, his crazy per-minute numbers should translate into helpful rebounds and blocks in the final games of the season. If you're looking for a lottery ticket with high upside for the fantasy playoffs or need a late-season boost in blocks, boards and field goal percentage, Drummond is the most potentially impactful player owned in fewer than 10 percent of leagues who is still going to play this season. Grab him while you can.

• Amir Johnson, who has a left knee contusion, is questionable for Friday's game. If he sits, look for Jonas Valanciunas' recent excellence to be even more pronounced. The rookie from Lithuania is averaging 15.2 points on 75.0 percent shooting from the floor with 7.5 rebounds per game in his past five and is a must-start in basically every format, especially if you want to bolster your field goal percentage.

 

[HacheMan]

Weekly Dish: April sleepers

<!-- end mod-article-title -->By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com


April is almost always the most difficult month to project in fantasy basketball. It's a month dominated by youth movements and shutdowns. Teams that are out of playoff contention will often decide to give their younger players more playing time in the season's final frame as they look to evaluate talent for next season. Conversely, teams that are locked into the postseason may give their star players some extra rest to help keep them fresh for the playoff run. These scenarios can be awfully frustrating (particularly in head-to-head leagues), but they also leave the door open with an incredible opportunity to find unheralded breakout players.
[h=3]The Top 130[/h]"Note: Brian McKitish's top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2012-13 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses. " 1. Kevin Durant, OKC (1)
2. LeBron James, MIA (2)
3. Chris Paul, LAC (3)
4. James Harden, HOU (4)
5. Stephen Curry, GS (6)
6. Russell Westbrook, OKC (5)
7. Paul George, IND (8)
8. Dwyane Wade, MIA (7)
9. Kobe Bryant, LAL (9)
10. Kyrie Irving, CLE (NR)
11. Carmelo Anthony, NY (11)
12. Deron Williams, BKN (10)
13. Ricky Rubio, MIN (14)
14. Serge Ibaka, OKC (15)
15. Paul Pierce, BOS (16)
16. Al Horford, ATL (20)
17. Josh Smith, ATL (19)
18. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (18)
19. Damian Lillard, POR (17)
20. Larry Sanders, MIL (23)
21. John Wall, WSH (29)
22. Brandon Jennings, MIL (13)
23. Brook Lopez, BKN (21)
24. Jrue Holiday, PHI (24)
25. Jeff Teague, ATL (26)
26. Nicolas Batum, POR (28)
27. Mike Conley, MEM (32)
28. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (31)
29. Marc Gasol, MEM (NR)
30. Ty Lawson, DEN (12)
31. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR (22)
32. David Lee, GS (27)
33. Tim Duncan, SA (41)
34. Al Jefferson, UTAH (35)
35. Blake Griffin, LAC (30)
36. Dwight Howard, LAL (34)
37. J.R. Smith, NY (39)
38. Kemba Walker, CHA (36)
39. Monta Ellis, MIL (37)
40. Tony Parker, SA (46)
41. Anthony Davis, NO (40)
42. Greg Monroe, DET (42)
43. Klay Thompson, GS (43)
44. Isaiah Thomas, SAC (51)
45. Roy Hibbert, IND (58)
46. Zach Randolph, MEM (44)
47. Greivis Vasquez, NO (33)
48. Ryan Anderson, NO (45)
49. Danilo Gallinari, DEN (48)
50. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (50)
51. Rudy Gay, TOR (57)
52. Jameer Nelson, ORL (49)
53. Tyreke Evans, SAC (56)
54. Wesley Matthews, POR (53)
55. Chris Bosh, MIA (54)
56. Nikola Vucevic, ORL (47)
57. Thaddeus Young, PHI (52)
58. Joakim Noah, CHI (25)
59. Luol Deng, CHI (64)
60. Spencer Hawes, PHI (103)
61. Andre Iguodala, DEN (61)
62. Jeff Green, BOS (76)
63. Chandler Parsons, HOU (62)
64. Jose Calderon, DET (63)
65. Tobias Harris, ORL (63)
66. Bradley Beal, WSH (NR)
67. George Hill, IND (55)
68. Moe Harkless, ORL (89)
69. J.J. Hickson, POR (70)
70. Carlos Boozer, CHI (71)
71. Gerald Henderson, CHA (90)
72. Steve Nash, LAL (73)
73. Goran Dragic, PHO (38)
74. Jeremy Lin, HOU (65)
75. Omer Asik, HOU (66)
76. Jamal Crawford, LAC (67)
77. Paul Millsap, UTAH (74)
78. David West, IND (77)
79. Nikola Pekovic, MIN (83)
80. Kyle Lowry, TOR (68)
81. Kenneth Faried, DEN (59)
82. Tristan Thompson, CLE (69)
83. Pau Gasol, LAL (87)
84. Mo Williams, UTAH (101)
85. Kawhi Leonard, SA (80)
86. Jarrett Jack, GS (82)
87. Amir Johnson, TOR (78)
88. Andrei Kirilenko, MIN (88)
89. Daniel Green, SA (84)
90. Nate Robinson, CHI (102)
91. O.J. Mayo, DAL (79)
92. Andre Drummond, DET (NR)
93. Kevin Martin, OKC (81)
94. Raymond Felton, NY (85)
95. Joe Johnson, BKN (75)
96. Tyson Chandler, NY (86)
97. Gordon Hayward, UTAH (91)
98. Evan Turner, PHI (93)
99. DeMar DeRozan, TOR (94)
100. Emeka Okafor, WSH (97)
101. Eric Gordon, NO (99)
102. Jonas Valanciunas, TOR (108)
103. Shawn Marion, DAL (105)
104. Reggie Evans, BKN (116)
105. Andrew Bogut, GS (110)
106. Manu Ginobili, SA (72)
107. Kevin Garnett, BOS (60)
108. Martell Webster, WSH (107)
109. Jerryd Bayless, MEM (122)
110. Vince Carter, DAL (113)
111. Dorell Wright, PHI (115)
112. Derrick Favors, UTAH (123)
113. Derrick Williams, MIN (92)
114. Mario Chalmers, MIA (112)
115. Luis Scola, PHO (127)
116. Wesley Johnson, PHO (129)
117. Carlos Delfino, HOU (114)
118. C.J. Miles, CLE (NR)
119. Brandon Bass, BOS (NR)
120. Jason Terry, BOS (121)
121. Devin Harris, ATL (119)
122. Wilson Chandler, DEN (NR)
123. Tony Allen, MEM (126)
124. Trevor Ariza, WSH (117)
125. Josh McRoberts, CHA (120)
126. Andre Miller, DEN (130)
127. Brandon Knight, DET (NR)
128. Brandan Wright, DAL (NR)
129. Jimmy Butler, CHI (NR)
130. Beno Udrih, ORL (NR)



With that said, let's take a look at some players who fit the above criteria and have the upside to break out in the season's final month:

We'll start with Andre Drummond, who returned to action Friday night after missing 22 games with a back injury. Drummond is a per-minute warrior, averaging a brilliant 7.5 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 1.7 blocks in just 19.7 minutes per game. In his first game back, he put up a 17-point, 2-steal, 2-block game in 19 minutes. The 24-49 Detroit Pistons are expected to let Drummond loose as the season winds down, which makes him a must-add for the stretch run. Drummond's upside is absolutely off the charts if he's able to secure 25-30 minutes per game.

The Utah Jazz are still fighting to hold onto the last playoff spot in the Western Conference, but that doesn't mean that Derrick Favors can't find a way to earn additional minutes in the season's final month, particularly with Enes Kanter likely out for the year. He has been terrific in recent action with 9.6 points, 9.2 rebounds, 0.8 steals and 1.8 blocks in just 22.6 minutes over his past five games. Favors is a dynamic talent when he's getting minutes, and he'll be a big force in boards and blocks the rest of the way now that Kanter's injury has cleared some room for additional playing time.

We spoke about Jonas Valanciunas last week, but it looks like the fantasy community has been a little slow to react to his breakout, as evidenced by the fact that he's owned in just 41.2 percent of ESPN.com leagues. With 13.2 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.1 blocks while shooting 69.6 percent from the floor over his past 10 games, Valanciunas needs to be owned in all fantasy leagues at this point. Expect him to continue to post big numbers as his minutes should remain stable the rest of the way.

As the debate over Derrick Rose's potential return continues, Nate Robinson is quietly on fire with 16.1 points, 6.2 assists, 1.1 steals and 2.2 3-pointers in the month of March. Robinson has always been a streaky player who can be incredibly valuable in the fantasy game when he has it going. And he sure has it going right now. On Saturday, Robinson went 7-for-7 from the 3-point line, finishing with 25 points and six assists on the day. Oh, and he's also shooting 56.3 percent from the floor over his past 10 contests. Rose's status is still much of a mystery, and Robinson should continue to pay major dividends at least until Rose is back on the court.

If Robinson is already taken in your league, Jerryd Bayless might be a nice consolation prize. Bayless is another high-upside, instant-offense type of player who's getting hot at the right time for the Memphis Grizzlies with 17.2 points, 4.2 assists, 0.8 steals and 2.0 3-pointers over his past five games. His quality play has earned him some additional run in the Grizzlies rotation, and Bayless should prove to be a quality pickup option for the duration of the season.

I hesitate to get too excited about Wesley Johnson's 15.0 points, 1.4 steals and 2.6 3-pointers over his past five games, but he is exactly the type of player described in the intro who has the potential to come out of nowhere to have a big month of April. With the 23-51 Phoenix Suns in full youth movement mode, fantasy owners need to give Johnson a look, particularly now that he's gotten hot from downtown. Johnson has underperformed in his short career, but he still has some talent, and he should continue to put up numbers as long as he's seeing 30-plus minutes per game.

Brandan Wright has quietly become a viable fantasy option, posting 11.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.4 blocks in just 24.4 minutes per game over his past 13 contests. His solid play has earned him some additional run in Rick Carlisle's rotation, and you can bet that Carlisle will continue to roll with the hot hand with the Dallas Mavericks only two games back for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

Roy Hibbert doesn't truly fit into the theme of this article, but he has had an absolutely disastrous season on the offensive end, averaging 11.4 points while shooting just 43.6 percent from the floor on the year. How a 7-footer can shoot sub-45 percent is beyond me, but the big man has suddenly found his touch and is shooting 47.9 percent from the floor in 13 games this month. His improved efficiency on the offensive end has given head coach Frank Vogel an opportunity to increase his minutes in recent action. Hibbert has responded well with 19.8 points, 11.2 rebounds and 2.0 blocks over his past five contests. Hibbert owners have endured a long season, but it looks like the big man is peaking at the right moment, and he should be able to give his owners a nice boost in points, boards and blocks for the stretch run.

We'll finish things off this week by taking a look back at the best pickups and my top 5 most underrated players for the month of March:

1. Spencer Hawes, C/PF, Philadelphia 76ers: 51.0 FG%, 84.2 FT%, 14.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.9 blocks.

2. Tobias Harris, SF/PF, Orlando Magic: 43.1 FG%, 76.8 FT%, 16.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 1.4 blocks, 1.2 3-pointers.

3. Jeff Green, SF/PF, Boston Celtics: 47.2 FG%, 80.6 FT%, 16.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 1.3 blocks, 1.2 3-pointers.

4. Maurice Harkless, SF, Orlando Magic: 46.4 FG%, 57.1 FT%, 13.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.2 steals, 0.9 blocks, 1.2 3-pointers.

5. Gerald Henderson, SG/SF, Charlotte Bobcats: 47.2 FG%, 83.9 FT%, 20.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.5 3-pointers.
<!-- begin story body -->

 

[HacheMan]

Be aware of rested stars

By Tom Carpenter, ESPN.com

Today is April Fools' Day, but the Miami Heat pranked the San Antonio Spurs and David Stern a day early, which, in turn, left most fantasy owners in a humorless mood. Remember way back at the end of November, when the Spurs visited the Heat? The box score next to Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Danny Green read "NWT," as in "not with team," because coach Gregg Popovich left those four players back in Texas.

Well, on Sunday, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra returned the favor by sitting LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Mario Chalmers when the Heat visited the Spurs. The only difference was that Spoelstra brought his players along and claimed to hold them out due to injuries. To be fair, Chalmers missed Friday's game with a sprained ankle, and there had been hints that LeBron (hamstring) and D-Wade (ankle) were dinged up heading into Friday, so it is possible that Spoelstra was giving them a legitimate day off to rest up.

In the end, these types of absences are normal for any veteran player on a team nearing the playoffs and are just a typical part of fantasy hoops strategy at this point of the season. Teams that set weekly lineups will have a tough call to make when it comes to some veterans (I'll discuss some of them below), but in daily lineup leagues, these absences present an opportunity to stream in role players who suddenly get more minutes.

For instance, on Sunday Norris Cole played nearly 43 minutes and had 13 points, 4 dimes and a steal, Mike Miller banged down four 3-pointers, Udonis Haslem chipped in 8 points and 7 rebounds, and there was even a Rashard Lewis sighting (7 points, 3 assists, 3 blocks). Of course, the Heat rode the Super Friends' third wheel, Chris Bosh, who racked up 23 points (9-15 FG), 9 boards, 2 blocks and a season-high three 3-pointers.

All savvy fantasy owners should be glued to the newswire prior to setting lineups at this point of the season to be sure you don't end up leaving in players who will end up with a random DNP-CD or NWT, and so you can stream in role players who may benefit from the absence of those starters.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]SUNDAY, MARCH 31[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Bradley Beal, Wizards: 24 points (8-14 FG), 6 3-pointers, 4 assists against the Raptors
Kawhi Leonard, Spurs: 17 points (8-13 FG), 11 rebounds, 2 steals versus the Heat
Jonas Valanciunas, Raptors: 18 points (5-9 FG, 8-10 FT), 10 rebounds, 2 blocks against the Wizards
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Brandon Knight, Pistons: 5 points (2-6 FG), 4 assists, 4 turnovers versus the Bulls
C.J. Miles, Cavaliers: 3 points (1-9 FG), 1 rebound, 1 assist versus the Hornets
Charlie Villanueva, Pistons: 14 points (4-13 FG), 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 turnovers against the Bulls



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• My adoration for Andre Drummond's NBA and fantasy potential is no secret, so I was just as bummed as anyone when a back injury sent him to the infirmary just as he was finally about to join the Detroit Pistons' starting lineup back in early February. After taking nearly two months off to recuperate, Drummond returned to action Friday and was immediately thrust into what should be a permanent spot as the Pistons' starting center. He continued his insane per-minute production with 17 points (8-10 FG), 4 rebounds, 2 steals and 2 blocks in 19 minutes Friday and 8 points (4-7 FG), 14 rebounds, 2 dimes and 1 block in 23 minutes Sunday. He's still available in more than half of ESPN leagues, so go get him and pop him right into your lineups, unless you are in a critical FT% battle, where his hideous charity-stripe shooting should scare you off; Drummond has hit just one of his seven FTAs in those two games, including a pair of air balls in one trip to the line Sunday.


• Kyrie Irving looked terrific in his return Sunday from a shoulder injury, busting up the New Orleans Hornets for 31 points (11-20 FG, 6-6 FT), three 3s and 6 dimes in 28 minutes of action. Since there was a concern he could miss the remainder of the season, Irving is available in a number of leagues (I just added him in one of my leagues), so make sure he isn't out there still. The Cleveland Cavaliers play four games this week and next, but there is a catch: Irving is expected to sit out Monday's game as part of his recovery protocol. The Cavs have back-to-back sets again April 9-10 and April 14-15, so you'll want to keep an eye on his status for those games.
• Rookie Bradley Beal made an unexpected return from his sprained ankle Sunday -- quite a surprise considering a Friday report that he was a week away from even testing the joint. He certainly looked ready, as he ended up with 24 points (8-14 FG) and a career-high six 3s. He came off the bench but played 30 minutes. The Washington Wizards run four times this week, so Beal is a terrific pickup (available in more than half of ESPN leagues). Beal's return, however, nixed the value of Garrett Temple, who played just 13 minutes Sunday.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Also absent from Sunday's Heat/Spurs tilt was Manu Ginobili, who is expected to miss at least the next week due to his strained right hamstring. In fact, Pop granted that the injury could sideline Ginobili into the playoffs. The Spurs play only thrice next week, so fantasy teams may well want to move on from Ginobili if there is a safer play available on waivers.

• Joakim Noah was allegedly a game-time call Saturday, but he skipped that game and missed his fifth straight game Sunday. It's anyone's guess when he will return from his plantar fasciitis or for how long he might be able to tough it out once he does lace 'em up again.

• Kevin Garnett is expected to miss Monday's battle with his old Minnesota Timberwolves squad due to his ankle injury. If the Celtics stick with their plan to rest him for two weeks, KG could be back in the mix Friday against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Coach Doc Rivers said that he probably will give Paul Pierce a day of rest Monday, though Pierce was pushing to roll anyway. Be sure to check for updates as game time nears.

• It sounds like Joe Johnson could return from his heel injury this week, perhaps as soon as Wednesday versus the Cavs. We may not have word prior to setting weekly lineups on Monday, though, which will put owners in a bind, especially since the Brooklyn Nets play just three games this week.

• A sprained right ankle cost Jameer Nelson most of the past two games, and it's not clear when he will return to action. We should know his status before lineups are set this evening, since the Orlando Magic face the Houston Rockets at 8 p.m. ET Monday. They ball four times this week, but keep in mind that the Magic have only two games on their schedule next week. If he skips tonight's game, you may just dump Nelson for an active player, like backup guard Beno Udrih, who had 20 points, two 3s, 8 dimes and 7 boards with Nelson out Saturday.

[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
There are only three games on the agenda for Tuesday evening, and with injuries and random DNP-CDs factored in, there isn't a ton of obviously great plays in the Fastbreak game. One I like the most, though, is Luol Deng. He's been posting terrific points-league stats of late (20, 32, 29, 24 Fastbreak points in his past four games), and he faces a beatable Wizards squad on Tuesday. I think he's one of the safer upside plays we can use tomorrow.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Addressing game-to-game fluctuation[/h][h=3]Lack of consistency in field goal percentage often overlooked[/h]
By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

At this far turn in the fantasy season, we fantasy basketball writers are desperately trying to point you to players on the wire who can aid you in endgame situations. Because, dramatically speaking, that's where most of the action is.

The final month of the season is marked by wild swings in player value thanks to the rotational abnormalities that plague the NBA's last lap. And our primary task over the final couple of weeks is to help you navigate some extremely choppy and unpredictable waters.

But I want to talk about another pool of players we need to pay attention to: Ones that have a huge impact on your team in short-term situations.

I'm talking about players already on your roster. Players who make it their business to give with one hand, and then take with the other. I'm talking about streaky shooters, and the effect they can have on your short-term field goal percentage.

If you're in a head-to-head playoff matchup, or a closely fought rotisserie league, you could find yourself in a situation where winning and losing comes down to field goal percentage. And as important as points scored can be, it counts for just as much as field goal percentage. Not to mention that points scored is linked to field goal percentage. So if a player struggles from the floor, he's going to hurt you in two categories.

Your entire season could come down to one or two individual games. That's when you really need to pay attention to streaky tendencies.

The truth is that many NBA players are susceptible to wild mood swings with regard to their field goal percentages. Some may shoot 10-of-12 one night, then 2-for-12 the next night.

You should, if possible, avoid streaky players if you're nursing a small lead in field goal percentage.

But on the other hand, these players can be useful if you're way behind in field goal percentage and are forced to swing for the fences, because they're just as liable to get extremely hot.

A nightmare shooting performance in a late Saturday night game can deliver a kneecapping on a team's razor-thin shooting advantage, costing that team an overall victory.

Conversely a player might rebound from an awful Antoine Walker-esque 1-for-10 shooting night on a Thursday with an Artis Gilmore-esque 12-for-14 performance on a Saturday, rewarding his owner's broader faith in humanity and vaulting his team to victory.

So who's streaky, and who's steady?

We always hear about certain NBA players having reputations as streaky shooters. J.R. Smith, Jason Terry and DeMarcus Cousins are three names often associated with streakiness.

Last year, I went to ESPN's resident geniuses in the Statistics and Information department and opened a discussion on how best to measure game-to-game streakiness. In the end, they used standard deviation to show which players posted the largest game-to-game variations. Or, in less wonky terms, see which players were most likely to go from a 2-for-12 night to a 10-for-12 night. I know this is all very latchkey kid of me. But it's important, so please allow me to elucidate for a moment.


Last season's most schizophrenic shooter was Greg Monroe, with a game-to-game standard deviation of 16.8 percent. Monroe shot an excellent 52.1 percent for the season, so history won't care much about the fact he had large shifts in his shooting from one night to the next.

But that average deviation means Monroe was capable of shooting 61 percent one night, then 44 percent the next night. The first night could really help you, the second might hurt you just enough to cost you a categorical victory.

If you knew Monroe had that propensity, and had a comfortable lead in some of the volume categories to ensure a win with a less aberrant center, you'd bench Monroe, right? Or maybe not start anyone in Monroe's center spot. If you feel confident you're going to take enough volume categories for a win, you don't need to take a risk in field goal percentage.

(By the way, Monroe has suffered a drop in overall field goal percentage this season, but has smoothed out his game-to-game fluctuations. So while he's shooting only 47.9 percent, his standard deviation rate is also down to 7.7 percent, which makes his average FG% range from about 43.0 to 51.8. That means his average off night is only 1 percent worse than last year's.)

One interesting fact about last season was that most of the top "deviants" turned out to be big men, but last season was a streaky, fluky season thanks to the lockout. This season's top 10, as you'd expect, features seven backcourt and wing players.

(NOTE: The "Avg FG% by game" column is truly an unweighted average of the players' field goal percentages from game-to-game this season, not their actual field goal percentage in 2012-13. The following lists have been filtered to include only players with a higher amount of field goal attempts and games played.)

[h=3]Top 10 Players
By standard deviation of field goal percentage[/h]

Player	Avg FG%/game	StdDev of FG%/game
Danny Green	45.4	18.3
Carl Landry	53.1	18.1
Robin Lopez	54.5	17.9
Jason Terry	42.6	17.9
Darren Collison	47.4	17.8
J.J. Redick	44.0	16.9
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	49.6	16.6
Andray Blatche	52.7	16.4
Chandler Parsons	48.0	15.9
Gary Neal	42.9	15.9

<THEAD>
<TBODY>
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Who knew Danny Green had such a wild and unpredictable streak? He's put up such an efficient, dry, boring, productive, under-the-radar season. That's what Spurs do.

But take a closer look, and you'll see the mood swings. Here are Green's past five games:

[h=3]Danny Green shooting
Past five games[/h]

Date	Opponent	FGM-FGA	3PM-3PA	2-pt FG%
3/22	Jazz	6-9	3-6	100.0
3/24	Rockets	2-11	2-6	0.0
3/27	Nuggets	6-12	6-8	0.0
3/29	Clippers	2-4	2-3	0.0
3/31	Heat	4-14	3-9	20.0

<THEAD>
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</TBODY>

See how in a one-game span Green swung went from shooting 6-of-9 (67 percent) to 2-of-11 (18 percent)? Or went from 2-of-4 to 4-of-14?

Green is a prime example of the kind of streaky shooter you might want to consider benching in a tight percentage matchup. (By the way, look at what kinds of attempts are really hurting Green; it's not the 3-pointers, but rather the shots from closer range).

Let's take a look at the next 10:

[h=3]Players 11-20
By standard deviation of field goal percentage[/h]

Player	Avg FG%/game	StdDev of FG%/game
Richard Hamilton	42.9	15.8
Nene	49.9	15.5
George Hill	44.7	15.4
DeMarcus Cousins	46.2	15.3
Chris Kaman	48.4	15.3
J.J. Hickson	55.4	15.3
Randy Foye	43.3	15.2
Andre Miller	50.3	15.2
Kyle Korver	43.4	15.2
Michael Beasley	41.4	15.1

<THEAD>
<TBODY>
</TBODY>

Here's where you'll find more of the players I'd normally associate with streaky shooting. Michael Beasley's manic shooting swings, coupled with his lack of production in other areas, has made himself the "empty points" poster child of 2013. DeMarcus Cousins has been beyond maddening to own this season. And I know from watching lots of Wizards games that Nene's perpetual day-to-day status limits his consistency.

Here are the players taking us all the way down (or up) to an average standard deviation of 13.5 percent. That number is important because 13.5 percent is the baseline average standard deviation posted by qualifying players.

[h=3]Players 21-56
By standard deviation of field goal percentage[/h]

Player	Avg FG%/game	StdDev of FG%/game
Tyreke Evans	49.1	15.0
Chris Bosh	53.2	15.0
David West	49.2	14.9
Dirk Nowitzki	47.3	14.9
Andrea Bargnani	40.9	14.9
Jeff Green	47.7	14.6
David Lee	51.2	14.6
Jamal Crawford	43.7	14.5
Isaiah Thomas	44.3	14.5
Markieff Morris	43.1	14.5
Jeff Teague	46.2	14.5
Andrei Kirilenko	53.5	14.4
Chris Paul	50.3	14.3
Marcin Gortat	53.2	14.3
Joakim Noah	48.9	14.2
Kenneth Faried	54.9	14.2
Nicolas Batum	42.6	14.2
Carlos Delfino	42.6	14.1
Spencer Hawes	47.5	14.1
John Wall	44.8	14.1
Ty Lawson	45.8	14.1
Brandon Knight	41.1	14.0
Marc Gasol	50.6	14.0
Roy Hibbert	43.1	14.0
Pau Gasol	45.1	14.0
Jason Thompson	52.9	14.0
Danilo Gallinari	41.9	13.9
James Harden	45.0	13.8
Glen Davis	44.5	13.8
Jordan Crawford	41.4	13.8
Nate Robinson	43.4	13.8
Mike Conley	42.9	13.7
J.J. Barea	43.4	13.7
Greivis Vasquez	43.9	13.6
Jared Dudley	50.6	13.6
O.J. Mayo	45.3	13.5

<THEAD>
<TBODY>
</TBODY>

Last year, I neglected to mention the positive side of the equation. By that, I mean the players who posted lower degrees of standard deviation from one game to the next.

So I'll close this column on a positive note by listing the players with an average-to-low amount of inconsistency. Which means the players at the very bottom of the next list are the ones you want to prioritize if you don't want any big one-game surprises.

[h=3]Most Consistent Players
By lowest standard deviation of field goal percentage[/h]

Player	Avg FGP/G	StdDev of FGP/G
Paul Pierce	42.9	13.4
Lance Stephenson	42.7	13.4
Caron Butler	45.7	13.4
Luis Scola	48.5	13.4
Larry Sanders	52.0	13.4
Manu Ginobili	41.6	13.4
Metta World Peace	41.0	13.4
Jose Calderon	49.3	13.4
Brook Lopez	51.3	13.3
Avery Bradley	42.1	13.3
Jeremy Lin	45.6	13.3
Ray Allen	48.8	13.3
Dion Waiters	41.9	13.3
Mo Williams	46.4	13.3
Kevin Seraphin	49.7	13.2
Greg Monroe	48.2	13.2
Zach Randolph	47.8	13.2
Tristan Thompson	47.2	13.2
Al Horford	54.1	13.2
Marcus Thornton	46.5	13.2
LaMarcus Aldridge	47.3	13.1
Tayshaun Prince	43.3	13.1
Damian Lillard	42.8	13.1
Shannon Brown	46.1	13.0
Dwyane Wade	51.8	13.0
Ed Davis	55.8	13.0
Derrick Williams	41.7	13.0
Stephen Curry	44.6	12.9
Brandon Jennings	38.9	12.9
Ricky Rubio	38.0	12.8
Serge Ibaka	57.8	12.8
Wesley Matthews	44.0	12.7
Kevin Garnett	48.8	12.6
Gordon Hayward	42.8	12.6
Ersan Ilyasova	49.2	12.6
Ramon Sessions	43.5	12.6
Alan Anderson	42.4	12.5
Klay Thompson	41.7	12.5
Bradley Beal	43.1	12.5
Kevin Martin	45.6	12.5
Evan Turner	44.6	12.5
Josh Smith	45.2	12.5
Andre Iguodala	42.7	12.5
Tony Parker	53.4	12.4
Paul Millsap	49.4	12.4
Patrick Patterson	53.0	12.4
Byron Mullens	40.9	12.3
J.R. Smith	42.2	12.3
John Salmons	47.1	12.3
Jarrett Jack	44.9	12.3
Monta Ellis	41.6	12.3
E'Twaun Moore	43.5	12.2
Matt Barnes	46.4	12.2
Kyrie Irving	46.4	12.2
Blake Griffin	54.7	12.2
Thaddeus Young	52.5	12.2
Dwight Howard	60.5	12.2
Shawn Marion	53.0	12.1
Paul George	42.2	12.1
Dorell Wright	41.6	12.0
Luke Ridnour	44.7	11.9
Jason Richardson	41.1	11.7
Alexey Shved	37.9	11.7
Raymond Felton	42.8	11.7
Tim Duncan	51.1	11.7
Ben Gordon	44.3	11.7
Emeka Okafor	52.0	11.6
Kobe Bryant	47.6	11.6
Gerald Henderson	46.3	11.5
Rajon Rondo	49.9	11.5
Anthony Davis	51.4	11.5
Ryan Anderson	44.1	11.4
Joe Johnson	42.0	11.4
Rudy Gay	40.8	11.3
Arron Afflalo	44.2	11.3
Jrue Holiday	43.7	11.3
LeBron James	56.6	11.3
Dante Cunningham	49.4	11.3
Luol Deng	42.2	11.1
C.J. Miles	42.1	11.1
Marco Belinelli	40.1	11.0
Steve Nash	47.0	11.0
Carlos Boozer	49.2	10.9
Kemba Walker	41.8	10.8
Antawn Jamison	49.8	10.8
Kyle Singler	41.3	10.8
Kyle Lowry	41.4	10.8
Martell Webster	45.6	10.7
Russell Westbrook	43.4	10.7
DeMar DeRozan	43.9	10.6
Rodney Stuckey	41.0	10.5
Jameer Nelson	39.2	10.5
Nikola Pekovic	53.5	10.4
Eric Gordon	39.8	10.4
Nick Young	41.4	10.3
Vince Carter	45.2	10.2
Louis Williams	42.1	10.2
Deron Williams	42.2	10.1
Carmelo Anthony	43.6	10.0
Nikola Vucevic	52.8	10.0
Al Jefferson	48.9	9.9
Kevin Durant	50.9	9.6
Kawhi Leonard	50.8	9.4
Alonzo Gee	40.5	9.2
Corey Brewer	45.7	9.2
Goran Dragic	44.8	9.1

<THEAD>
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</TBODY>

Note how two of the NBA's highest-volume shooters are also amongst the most reliable. Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony can be counted on as fairly automatic from one game to the next.

I'd rate the most pleasant surprises as Corey Brewer, Deron Williams, Nick Young, DeMar DeRozan and Russell Westbrook. While none of those players will spark a comeback in field goal percentage (and hurt you in the long run), they're less likely to lay an aberrant egg in your Sunday morning box scores.

I'll leave you with this inspirational statement: In close fantasy matchups, sometimes it's safer to go with a player who's reliably mediocre.

Good luck!

 

[HacheMan]

Jonas Valanciunas improving '13 draft value

By Tom Carpenter, ESPN.com

Toronto Raptors rookie Jonas Valanciunas has been showing signs of promise recently. He tallied 17 points (8-14 FG), 6 boards and 5 blocks Monday, which followed back-to-back double-double games (18-10, 14-13). He has also scored in double digits in all but one of his past 13 contests. During that stretch, the big fella blocked at least two shots six times, including a total of 11 in his past three games.

When I spoke to ESPN Insider Fran Fraschilla about Valanciunas last summer, he told me that "He'll have nights where he has 19 points and 17 rebounds against weaker frontcourts, but he may get manhandled and in foul trouble versus tougher opponents other nights." That's been a fair assessment of how Valanciunas' rookie campaign has gone. Looking at his best games during the past month, most of them have come against weaker frontcourts (DET, WAS, CHA, MIA). In fact, his current hot stretch over his past three games came against the Detroit Pistons (twice) and the Washington Wizards.

His biggest nemesis has been foul trouble, as he has averaged 2.9 fouls per game, despite averaging just 23 minutes per game this season. The good news is that his minutes per game shot up to 27 last month, yet his fouls per game leveled off at 3.0. So it appears he is growing more comfortable as an NBA player, which gives hope that he will not only continue to play well as the 2012-13 campaign winds down, but that he will be a solid breakout candidate next season.

Fraschilla's final preseason read on the young center was that Valanciunas "should be outstanding in 2-3 years." I'm willing to bet that we will see his breakout come during his sophomore campaign, which means he will make for an excellent keeper and solid sleeper next fall.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]MONDAY, APRIL 1[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Monta Ellis, Bucks: 19 points, 3 3-pointers, 14 assists, 6 steals against the Bobcats
Rudy Gay, Raptors: 34 points (13-18 FG), 4 3s, 6 rebounds, 5 assists versus the Pistons
Mo Williams, Jazz: 20 points (7-12 FG), 6 3-pointers, 9 assists, 1 turnover against the Trail Blazers
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Alonzo Gee, Cavaliers: 11 points (5-14 FG), 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 turnovers versus the Hawks
Brandon Knight, Pistons: 5 points (2-8 FG), 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 turnovers versus the Raptors
Luke Ridnour, Timberwolves: 2 points (1-7 FG), 1 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 turnovers against the Celtics



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• It took a little while for Mo Williams to get his legs under him, which is hardly surprising considering he missed more than two months of action. He certainly has found his rhythm of late, though. On Monday, Williams torched the Portland Trail Blazers for 20 points (7-12 FG), 6 3s, 9 dimes and 1 turnover. That was his third straight game with at least 20 points and the fourth time he had at least 8 assists in his past seven games. The only downside for Williams right now is that the Jazz finish the season with back-to-back two-game weeks after this week wraps up.

• Nikola Pekovic returned to action Monday after a one-game absence due to a sprained left ankle and looked solid as usual -- 29 points (9-15 FG, 11-11 FT), 5 boards, 1 steal and 1 block -- but the more surprising line came from teammate Andrei Kirilenko, who came up with 17 points (6-7 FG, 4-4 FT), 9 boards, 5 dimes and 2 steals. He's been thoroughly inconsistent since returning from his own injury a couple of weeks ago, which is why he's available in a quarter of all ESPN leagues. If you are in a tight roto battle for hustle stats or even in a tight battle in a points league, Kirilenko could be worth a flier, especially since he plays three more games this week and four next week.

• When Damian Lillard knocked down his 167th 3-pointer Monday night, he passed Stephen Curry's record for the most 3s by a rookie. He finished the game with a typical line of 17 points, 5 dimes, 5 boards and 3 3s. Overall this season, he's averaging 2.3 3s per game after averaging 2.6 per game in March. The only weaknesses in his fantasy game thus far have been a lack of steals (0.9 per game) and a shaky 43.1 FG percentage. However, he has knocked down 46.3 percent of his field goal attempts in 21 games since the All-Star break. There's no doubt that Lillard will be worth consideration next fall as an early second-round pick or even at the end of the first round for those who think he can expand significantly on his rookie stats.

• When a player proves capable of blocking a ton of shots, we fantasy folks can live with the fact that such a player usually isn't asked to score much. So it was a surprise to most of us that we saw Serge Ibaka's scoring average leap from 9-10 points over the previous two seasons to 13.2 ppg this season. Can we expect the same sort of leap from shot-blocking revelation Larry Sanders next season? His scoring average has risen each month this season (7.4 ppg in November, 8.7 in December, 9.1 in January, 11.5 in February, 12.2 in March) and peaked Monday evening with a career-high 24 points. That's the second time in three games that he has topped the 20-point mark and the fifth straight game with at least a dozen points. The real key, of course, is that he is taking double-digit shots nearly every game and shooting around 50 percent of late. His overall value in 2013-14 will depend a lot on how the Milwaukee Bucks alter their roster this offseason, but it appears that last month's averages of 12.2 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 2.3 bpg and 49.4 FG% could be a baseline for next season's projections.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Denver Nuggets coach George Karl granted that Ty Lawson could be a couple of weeks away from returning from his torn plantar fascia. Lawson really doesn't have a set timeline for his return, but you don't need me to tell you that there are barely a couple of weeks left in the fantasy hoops season. That means if you are in a shallow league, you may just have to cut bait on Lawson and move on. I would keep a close eye on his situation, though, and monitor your waiver wire, because he could make a difference in your league if he does get back in the mix for the final few games of the season.

• The Houston Rockets played Monday against the Orlando Magic without the services of James Harden and Chandler Parsons. Harden was a game-time call due to a foot injury and Parsons was ill, so it sounds like both should return soon. With those two out, Jeremy Lin had 19 points (8-16 FG), 11 assists and two 3s and Francisco Garcia had 14 points (5-6 FG), 4 3s, 5 dimes and 3 blocks. Should Harden and Parsons miss more action (next game is in Sacramento on Wednesday), Harden and Garcia should be in position to perform well again.

• At this stage of the season, it may be more beneficial to read the San Antonio Spurs' medical reports than their box scores. Manu Ginobili is expected to miss 3-4 weeks due to his most recent hamstring strain, which means his fantasy season should be over. His absence will give the likes of Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw some extra run, at least when they aren't hurt, too. To wit, Leonard and Tim Duncan both skipped Monday's game due to sore knees. Neither of those maladies appear to be serious, so there's a good chance both guys will be back in the mix soon, though the Spurs play a back-to-back set Wednesday (ORL) and Thursday (at OKC), so there may be some random DNP-CDs in those games, too.

[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
Speaking of Duncan, if he is active for Wednesday's game against the Orlando Magic, I'll have him in as my starting center in the Fastbreak game. He's basically a shoo-in for 25 Fastbreak points and is fully capable of racking up 40 (as he has done three times in his past seven active games). If Duncan sits, I will roll with Pekovic against the Milwaukee Bucks. Just like Duncan, Pek is basically a shoo-in for 25 points and has upside that rolls into the 30s.

 

[HacheMan]

Four uncertain situations for '13-14

By Seth Landman | Special to ESPN.com

For the past two weeks in this space, I've taken a look at point guards and rookies with an eye on next year's fantasy drafts. This week, however, we'll do away with such categories and open up to the wider world; what follows are a few players who find themselves in various interesting situations heading into the final couple of weeks of the season.

(Player Rater ranking based on overall stats in parentheses)

Jefferson

Al Jefferson, PF/C, Utah Jazz (30): Jefferson's current ranking is a bit of a disappointment given that his average draft position (ADP) was 13.7 in ESPN.com fantasy leagues this season. It isn't like he's been horribly injured, either; he's missed just four of the 75 games the Jazz have played thus far. Of late, the Jazz are on a bit of a run, pushing the Los Angeles Lakers for the final playoff spot in the West weeks after it seemed like they might have faded from contention. Much of the credit goes to Jefferson, who is averaging 20.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.6 blocks, 2.2 steals, and 55 percent shooting from the floor over their five-game winning streak.

The Jazz took a lot of heat from the basketball media for standing pat at the trade deadline in large part due to Jefferson's free-agent status. In this day and age, it's hard to imagine a guy being the best player on a team that makes the playoffs in a really strong Western Conference (assuming the Jazz get in) not receiving a max deal in free agency, but Jefferson's value is difficult to determine. In fantasy, we have no such problems. Heading into next season's fantasy drafts, Jefferson will have two forces working against each other in terms of his perceived value. He likely will find himself in a new basketball context, whether it's in Utah with different teammates or someplace entirely new; on the other hand, he'll be coming off a season in which he did not quite match what was expected of him statistically. For my part, I'll note that Jefferson doesn't turn 29 until the middle of next season. He's still pretty young, and given his ability to score in the post and his improving game as a passer, I'd happily snap him up in the second round of just about any league.

Green

Danny Green, SG/SF, San Antonio Spurs (57): The Spurs have Danny Green locked up on a very reasonable contract through 2014-15, and he's a perfect fit in his role as a floor spacer/defensive specialist. His main skill -- as his game translates to fantasy stats -- is his ability to knock down a high volume of 3-pointers; he makes 2.3 per game, and well over half of his field goal attempts come from ideal spaces behind the arc created in the flow of the offense. Green is playing more minutes this season, but it isn't like he's actually a better player than he was last time around, and that's the issue making it tough to gauge his value heading into next season.

Green's current ranking of 57 points to him as a late fifth-round draft pick, but that seems really high for a guy with such a limited game. He went undrafted in many leagues this season, but the difference between then and now really comes down to an extra four or so minutes of playing time per night and a few more 3-pointers. The point is that Green is going to seem like a safe bet next season because his role is so well-defined, but he's actually extremely volatile. Should his minutes drop into the low 20s or his 3-point field goal percentage drop under 40, Green is going to end up not being able to crack the top 100 next season. Keep that in mind when you are drafting.

Thomas

Isaiah Thomas, PG, Sacramento Kings (65): The Kings keep trying not to play Thomas, but end up getting stifled by the fact that he's one of their three best players. On most teams, a core of Thomas, Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins might feel more exciting than it does in this instance, but the dysfunction in Sacramento prevents me from feeling optimistic. Still, despite his really disappointing numbers prior to the All-Star break (in even more disappointing playing time), Thomas is averaging 18.2 points, 5.4 assists, 2.4 3s, 92 percent shooting from the line, and 50 percent shooting from the floor in 20 games since, and has managed, amazingly, to exceed his ADP by a healthy margin.

Unfortunately, I'm still uncertain what Thomas' role will be next season. He'll be with the Kings, who should be thrilled to have him locked into a team option next season for less than $1 million dollars. It doesn't look like the Kings will have better options, and normally I would say that Thomas' efficient, stellar offensive play since the All-Star break would guarantee him the job next season, but Thomas was great down the stretch last season, and the Kings started this year by playing him less than 20 minutes per game off the bench for an entire month. Ultimately, there may always be tension between his immense ability on offense and the fact that, at just 5-foot-9, he might be too small to hang with most NBA players defensively. I'd lean toward drafting him, but if he ends up in a bench role again, it's going to kill his value.

Green

Jeff Green, SF/PF, Boston Celtics (87): Full disclosure: I'm a Celtics fan, so Jeff Green's game makes me lose all objectivity and reason. He's one of the most frustrating players I have ever watched, constantly flashing glimpses of an amazing all-around game and then disappearing so completely that sometimes it's hard to find him on the court even when he's playing. Still, he's proved that he's a viable player after last season's heart scare; it's worth remembering that he missed just six games total over his first three full seasons in the league.

In many ways, this has been the best season of Green's career. No, he's not playing huge minutes like he did in Oklahoma City, but his PER is a career high 14.71 due to a few factors. For one thing, he's getting to the line more often, and making 81 percent of his 3.2 attempts per game. He's also been something of a weapon from behind the 3-point line, knocking down a respectable 37 percent of his attempts. Add it all up, and he's scoring more points per minute than he ever has, and he's doing it with a career-high true shooting percentage. That combination is why he's managed to be a top-100 fantasy player this season, along with the fact that his all-around game means he's a positive in every category (even if some of those positives are quite small).

The Celtics have Green on a huge contract for three more seasons after this one, so he's probably not going anywhere, and if his minutes go up, he'll almost have no choice but to be a valuable fantasy player. Still, I don't seem him getting much better from here. At 6-foot-9, he's a putrid rebounder, and doesn't show any signs of ever being an elite shooter, either, and I can't stand the idea of drafting a guy in fantasy leagues just because he's halfway decent. There will be plenty of players with more upside than Green who will be drafted after him next season, and I wouldn't want to be the one who passes them up.

 

[HacheMan]

Prepare to do without LeBron, D-Wade

By Neil Tardy, Special to ESPN.com

Carmelo Anthony did nothing but shoot Tuesday.

Meanwhile, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade once again did nothing.

If you have James and/or Wade and you're deep in head-to-head league playoffs, you have my sympathies. Not that those will do you any more good than the accumulating DNPs will.

Wade's absence is a little easier to take. He is 31 now, and he reportedly has multiple minor maladies. Of course, Wade owners are still missing his production. Despite having sat out four of the past six games, D-Wade has averaged 22.3 points, 2.5 steals and 55.5 percent shooting since the break. He remains one of the top players in fantasy.

As for you James owners, here's the only advice I can offer: Avert your eyes -- and your mouse -- and do not under any circumstances read this Miami Herald piece, because, to paraphrase Lewis Black, blood might start shooting from your nose. Herald writer Joseph Goodman paints a pretty clear picture of LeBron James kicking it back for a spell. Not that the world's best basketball player hasn't earned his time off, but geez, fantasy championships are on the line here.

After noting that Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said James originally injured his leg in the first quarter against the New Orleans Hornets on March 29, Goodman helpfully points out that LeBron still managed to swish six 3-pointers by halftime and amass 36 points in just three quarters of action. James sat out the final period in the blowout win at New Orleans, and he has been sitting since.

And here's the kicker: The Herald item concludes by saying that Spoelstra isn't committing to playing James, Wade or Mario Chalmers on Friday, either. And because Friday is the day when the Heat visit the lowly Charlotte Bobcats, I'd say there's a solid chance that those fellas will be in street clothes once again.

If you're looking to make this work for you, Mike Miller might be a worth a flier. He finished with 18 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 triples and a couple of blocks against the New York Knicks on Tuesday. If the enigmatic Miller does indeed make another start, you couldn't ask for a better matchup than the Bobcats, who allow a league-high number of treys. Needless to say, keep following the news on the playoff-prepping, Popovich-mimicking Heat.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]TUESDAY, APRIL 2[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Carmelo Anthony, Knicks: 50 points (18-26 FG), 7 3-pointers against the Heat
Kobe Bryant, Lakers: 23 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists, 4 assists, 2 blocks versus the Mavericks
John Wall, Wizards: 27 points (11-13 FT), 9 rebounds, 8 assists, 3 blocks against the Bulls
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Bradley Beal, Wizards: 8 points (3-11 FG), 5 rebounds versus the Bulls
Tyson Chandler, Knicks: 1 point (0-2 FG), 2 rebounds, 2 blocks versus the Heat
Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks: 11 points (2-6 FT), 5 rebounds, 6 assists against the Lakers



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking back[/h]
• As for Melo, the takeaway from his 50-point outburst against Chris Bosh and the Heat reserves is that he's healthy now. After missing six of nine games in early March, Anthony is averaging 30.4 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2.1 3s over his past eight.

• The Knicks also welcomed back Tyson Chandler on Tuesday. Clearly limited after missing 10 games with a bulging disk in his neck, Chandler managed only one point and two rebounds in 24 minutes. Afterward, Chandler said he felt stiff and sore, but was pain-free. He added he wasn't sure if he would play Wednesday, when the Knicks visit the Atlanta Hawks.

• Bradley Beal is also struggling with a lingering injury. After sitting out five games with an ankle sprain, Beal put up 24 points against the Toronto Raptors on Sunday, an outburst that had fantasy owners scrambling to add him for the stretch run. On Tuesday, however, the Washington Wizards rookie managed only eight points on 3-of-11 shooting against the Chicago Bulls, and said that his ankle bothered him during warm-ups.

• Speaking of the Bulls, Joakim Noah (foot) missed his sixth straight game Tuesday. However, he did say that he hopes to play "in the next couple of games." While the Bulls are another team that's looking ahead to the postseason, losing Taj Gibson (who injured his knee against the Wizards) might hasten Noah's return.

[h=3]Looking ahead[/h]
• Joe Johnson (heel, quad) practiced Tuesday. While he might play Wednesday against the Cleveland Cavaliers, a return Thursday against the Bulls seems more realistic. After missing the past four games, Johnson isn't expected to play both nights.

• Nothing is certain yet, but it's looking as though both James Harden (ankle) and Chandler Parsons (food poisoning) will play for the Houston Rockets, who visit the Sacramento Kings.

• Paul Pierce is expected to play when the Boston Celtics visit the Detroit Pistons. Pierce missed Sunday's game with the Minnesota Timberwolves due to personal reasons.