NBA Fantasy News 2012/2013

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hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Keep or cut?[/h][h=3]Who's worth dropping to pick up latest waiver-wire stars?[/h]By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

As early season games unfold and surprise fantasy value emerges from the box scores, every waiver-wire decision is two-fold: whom to add, and sometimes more difficult to determine, whom to drop? As I mentioned last week, it's important to have fluidity with your bench spots early in the season to capitalize upon available value, but at what point is it safe to drop a player who initially was viewed as a key cog in your fantasy rotation?
Of the top 100 players on the final 2011-12 Player Rater, 70 of them had an average draft position of 100 or better. Thus, 30 percent of players drafted to be part of a starting fantasy lineup did not finish in the top 100 overall.

Looking at this season, then, as a general rule it makes sense for us to hold onto about 70 percent of players drafted in the top 100, or your first seven picks in a 10-team league. Unless the player to be added is irresistible, either dripping with upside or worth starting immediately, hold onto players you drafted as unquestionable starters until we have a larger sample size with which to evaluate their season-long prospects. Among those in the lower echelon of the top 100, though, here are players I'd either hold or consider dropping, depending on your roster and league size:

Hold: Jason Terry, Andrew Bogut, JaVale McGee, Ersan Ilyasova, Brandon Knight, Nikola Pekovic, Marcus Thornton, Evan Turner, Isaiah Thomas, Gerald Wallace

Drop: Samuel Dalembert, Tony Allen, Rodney Stuckey, Elton Brand, Jared Dudley, Ben Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, Jose Calderon, Kris Humphries, Mario Chalmers, Spencer Hawes, Harrison Barnes, Jason Richardson

Cutting somebody special is tough. I often play my cassette single of "It's So Hard to Say Goodbye to Yesterday" while making roster cuts to affect the mood accordingly. It gets weird around here sometimes. On the bright side, let's take a look at some shiny new faces that are widely available and worth considering as waiver-wire additions:


E'Twaun Moore, SG, Orlando Magic (38.1 percent owned): With injuries to Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu, Arron Afflalo has been playing the 3, and Moore, with his excellent jumper, has responded impressively in the starting lineup, averaging 13.8 points with 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.8 3-pointers and 1.0 steals per game. He had a stellar preseason, averaging 11.4 points with 2.9 3s per game, and averaged 18.0 points with 2.1 3s and 1.2 steals in his senior season at Purdue. The all-around production should drop off some once playmakers Nelson and Turkoglu return, but the shooting is legit, as he shot 40 percent from downtown in college. He's developing his point guard abilities, and has good basic facilitation skills but needs to continue to grow in that area to play the point in the NBA for an extended period of time. Despite his mediocre athleticism, he's capable defensively, has a winner's mentality, and should continue seeing minutes and shine as a spot-up shooter all season.

Byron Mullens, PF/C, Charlotte Bobcats (35.4 percent owned): His preseason 3-point shooting barrage was a hot topic, then he started the season slowly from downtown until exploding for 6-for-10 shooting from behind the arc Wednesday. He is primed to contribute heavily in the category. He extended his range to long 2-pointers in his mini-breakout campaign last season, and now that he's draining 3s, his fantasy value has a new potential as he's primed to put up Channing Frye-esque stats. Despite the 8.3 rebounds per game so far, he's a poor rebounder for his size, and will provide subpar defensive stats from a center, but will give you nice out-of-position stats and is an ideal complementary piece if you have a guard like Dwyane Wade or Rajon Rondo who doesn't nail 3s and need to compensate elsewhere on your roster.

Danny Green, SG, San Antonio Spurs (24.5 percent owned): My favorite aspect of Green's college stats is his 1.5 3s, 1.8 steals and 1.3 blocks per game his senior season at North Carolina. That type of combo is rare from a shooting guard, and although it took him a few years to get going, he flashed that skill set in 23.1 minutes per game last season, averaging 1.5 3s, 0.7 steals and 0.9 blocks per game. The biggest difference this year is minutes, as he's starting and averaging 30.2 minutes, with 2.4 3s, 0.8 steals and 0.6 blocks per game. He can score, too, and although his percentages are average, he never turns the ball over. Those "glue" stats he provides are typically reserved to small forwards or power forwards, so Green has extra value providing them from the shooting guard slot and is worth adding in all leagues.

Kevin Seraphin, PF/C, Washington Wizards (24.2 percent owned): We got a glimpse of Seraphin's potential in April, when he averaged 15.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.7 blocks and 0.6 steals in 15 games. He scores efficiently by keeping his attempts close to the rim, as he averaged just 0.7 shots from beyond 10 feet last year, so the 22-year-old not only provides blocks, he produces points and a solid field goal percentage. He had an impressive run in the Olympics with the French national team, averaging 1.3 blocks per game. With Nene out, he should get plenty of opportunity to produce, and is clearly a future part of this franchise.

Taj Gibson, PF, Chicago Bulls (15.5 percent owned): With the Bulls extending Gibson's contract and Omer Asik out of the picture, logic dictates that his minutes at some point will increase into the upper 20's, a threshold he hasn't hit since his rookie year. His per-minute defensive stats are stellar (6.2 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, 0.5 steals in 23.2 minutes per game in his career), and he's on a shot-blocking spree to start the season, averaging 2.5 in just 19.5 minutes per game. This is more of a speculative add. Until he gets more minutes, his production will be inconsistent, but he's too productive per-minute and tied to the Bulls' long-term plan to not eventually earn more playing time. When he does, you'll be pleased if he's on your fantasy roster.

Larry Sanders, PF/C, Milwaukee Bucks (14.7 percent owned): Like Gibson, Sanders has been a per-minute stud so far in his career, and now he's getting more run, more than doubling his minutes from 12.4 last season to 26.0 in three games this year, averaging 3.0 blocks per game. It's a small sample size and the Bucks' frontcourt is convoluted with Ersan Ilyasova, Drew Gooden, Samuel Dalembert and Ekpe Udoh soaking up minutes, but he's separating himself with impressive raw skills. I wouldn't expect double-digit scoring, although he should be efficient, as most of his baskets are around the rim, and he should be a regular on the "SportsCenter" top plays with his elite athleticism. Where he makes his money is on the defensive end, as Sanders could average 2.5 blocks and 1.0 steals per game if his minutes stay in the mid 20's.


Steve Blake, PG, Los Angeles Lakers (3.2 percent owned): There's nothing exciting about Blake other than the fact that for the next month, he's the starting point guard for a team loaded with offensive options, and he should provide modest assists, steals and 3s. Blake struggled from downtown last season, averaging just 33.5 percent on 3-point attempts, a number that's jumped up to 43.8 percent this season. He's averaging 3.6 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.4 3s thus far, and will be a dependable 3-category player until Steve Nash returns.


Randy Foye, PG/SG, Utah Jazz (3.1 percent owned): He's bound to be erratic in the sixth man role for the Jazz, although has shown throughout his career capable of scoring as well as providing 3s and steals. No longer attempting to be a do-it-all combo guard, he's settled in as a scoring and 3-point specialist, which has improved his productivity. He's scored in double figures in four of Utah's five games, and should provide double-digit scoring with about two 3s per game, similar numbers to his career year last season, and worthy of a spot for teams in deeper leagues that need 3s.

Jonas Jerebko, SF/PF, Detroit Pistons (0.3 percent owned): Like Seraphin, Gibson and Sanders, Jerebko deserves to play more, and once he does, helpful fantasy stats should follow. He has a nice-looking stroke on his outside shot, can be effective in the high post, and provides energy to a team lacking dynamism. He won't wow in any category but has the potential to be an above-average, across-the-board contributor with nice percentages, and his counting stats should flirt with one 3, one steal and half a block if he gets his minutes in the upper 20's. Another speculative add for deeper leagues who could click as rotations shake out.

For more about potential pickups and other fantasy analysis during the week, follow me on Twitter, and as always be sure to watch plenty of actual basketball, the best way to pick up on player trends that don't show up in the box scores.
 

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[h=1]Anthony Davis tops Barometer[/h][h=3]Jason Smith, Chris Bosh climb into top 10 of weekly bigs rankings[/h]By Bradford Doolittle | Basketball Prospectus

The Big Man Barometer is rounding into regular-season form as all components of the system are in place. The Barometer tracks the usage and performance of frontcourt players across the NBA, and forecasts how they're going to do in the coming week. (For a complete explanation about our metrics and analysis, click here.)

Next week, we'll start keeping tally of the top performers for the season as a whole and track them against preseason projections. Other than that, everything in today's edition will be as such for the rest of the campaign. (We'll be predicting the weekly numbers for NBA big men based on a Monday-to-Sunday schedule that should be compatible with the vast majority of weekly head-to-head fantasy leagues.)


The big difference in the process this week is that positional data has been calculated from the play-by-play of each game. Each player in the league is assigned a "true position" that is based on the last three years of positional data. After establishing those ratings, we move onto the play-by-play analysis. For each possession, the system looks at who is on the floor and ranks them 1 to 5 based on true position, and assigns their position for that possession accordingly.


One offshoot of this process is that we can easily glimpse at which teams are playing the biggest or smallest lineups. Guess which team is playing the smallest in the NBA? It's the New York Knicks, who have been wildly successful using a lineup that I called for just last week. In that piece, I didn't give Mike Woodson enough credit for his ingenuity; I fully expected him to wedge a non-starting-caliber power forward into his lineup. Woodson has instead gone with a small group that has been sterling on both ends of the floor.


Here are the top 10 big men for Oct. 31-Nov. 1. (Players listed by winning percentage; any player who played a total of at least 30 minutes at center or power forward last week is eligible for the rankings.) Also included at the bottom are big man projections for next week.

[h=3]1. Anthony Davis | New Orleans Hornets | .873[/h]
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Before Davis was clocked in the head by teammate Austin Rivers last week, he had played six quarters about as well as any rookie has played out of the gate in recent memory. Yesterday, I jumped on board with those suggesting that Davis will spend plenty of time on the wing this season in order to speed up the development of his offensive game. It's already happened to a certain extent, which I wasn't aware of until I ran the play-by-play data. According to my true position system, Davis has played 8.8 of his 43.5 minutes at small forward.
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[h=3]2. Dwight Howard | Los Angeles Lakers |.834[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
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Since we're only looking at the seven-day period ending Tuesday, this doesn't include Howard's season opener, when he went 3-for-14 from the floor. Last week, he averaged 24.7 points in three games and made almost two-thirds of his free throws.

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[h=3]3. Jason Smith | New Orleans Hornets | .808[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
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Smith filled in admirably in a bigger-than-usual role in the Hornets' upset win at Chicago on Saturday. He scored 12 points in the fourth quarter and, perhaps even more importantly with Davis absent, he aided a solid interior defense that helped shut down the rugged Bulls.

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[h=3]4. Chris Bosh | Miami Heat | .772[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
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It was a pretty standard week for Bosh, who averaged 23.3 points in three games. More interestingly, Bosh was coded as a center for 87.1 of his 91.1 minutes for the week. The Heat's pace-and-space attack is being used on a near full-time basis, and its Offensive Rating this season could approach record levels.

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[h=3]5. Carl Landry | Golden State Warriors | .743[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
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It's easy to think small-ball when the Warriors are mentioned, but Mark Jackson is much more traditional in his lineup usage than former coach Don Nelson. Landry averaged 16.5 points and 7.0 rebounds in about 25 minutes of the bench last week, with about 60 percent of those minutes coming at the center position. That's part of the reason that Golden State's average true position (2.84, ranked 20th) is below the league average.

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[h=3]6. JaVale McGee | Denver Nuggets | .696[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
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One of the reasons the Nuggets projected so well this season was because of a possible breakout season for McGee, whose early numbers justify the optimism. Despite that and the fact that Denver signed him to a huge contract during the summer, McGee came off the bench in all four of Denver's games last week and averaged just 17.5 minutes per game. That's not to call out George Karl -- the Nuggets have been 2.3 points per 100 possessions better with McGee on the bench. Think this doesn't add up? Welcome to the perplexing world of JaVale McGee.
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[h=3]7. Marc Gasol | Memphis Grizzlies | .693[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
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Gasol was as efficient as it gets last week, shooting 57 percent from the field and averaging 21 points, seven boards and six assists. Memphis went to a surprising 3-1 start last night by way of Gasol's 14 points and nine rebounds, but it was fellow big Marreese Speights' 18 points and 9 boards that put them over. Perhaps Speights might one day end up here?

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[h=3]8. Carmelo Anthony | New York Knicks | .691[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
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The great thing about the true position system is that it knows when a player is out of position. Of course, that may not be the case for Anthony. The evidence is mounting that Melo is a 4, whether he likes it or not. If New York continues to play well, it will be very interesting to see what happens when Amar'e Stoudemire returns.

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[h=3]9. Paul Millsap | Utah Jazz | .679[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
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Millsap has really developed into a well-rounded player, and that's evidenced in his per-game averages last week: 13.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.8 blocks. Plus, he hit 5 of 6 from behind the arc. He's the most versatile player in Utah's crowded frontcourt, which makes his positional usage interesting to track. Last week, he played 8.3 minutes at small forward and all the rest at the 4. That Millsap-at-3 lineup that worked so well last season hasn't been as much on display now that Marvin Williams is with the Jazz.

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[h=3]10. Anderson Varejao | Cleveland Cavaliers | .674[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
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Varejao is off to a great start, and this doesn't even include his 23-rebound performance on opening night. Last week, Varejao shot 71 percent from the field and averaged 12.3 rebounds.

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[h=3]Three to watch[/h]
Byron Mullens | Charlotte Bobcats
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So far, Mike Dunlop has opted for big lineups, and who can blame him considering Mullens' evolution from a soft center into a stretch 4? Of course Mullens has to make, not just take, those 3s. Last week he was 2-for-14. Next week, the Bobcats have games against Washington, Minnesota and Memphis, which combine to give Mullens a slight boost in his weekly projection. However, the quality of that forecast overall isn't going to boost him until he starts hitting those deep shots.

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Danilo Gallinari | Denver Nuggets
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Speaking of shooting woes, Gallinari is just 6-for-31 from 3-point land on a team that desperately needs his floor-spacing ability. He shows up in the Barometer because last week he was coded as almost evenly splitting his time between the forward positions. Next week the Nuggets face the Suns, Heat and Spurs, so this is the time for Gallo to turn it on.

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Derrick Williams | Minnesota Timberwolves
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Questions about whether Williams can play the 3 are currently moot. Right now he just needs to prove he can play, period. With Kevin Love out, this is a golden opportunity for Williams to shine for a rising team. Last week, he ranked 82nd of the 106 big men who qualified for Barometer consideration. When Minnesota made its spirited comeback at Brooklyn, Williams was watching Dante Cunningham man his position and spark the rally.

Below are big man projections for next week.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Top 25 Big Man Projections[/h]For week of 11/12-11/18
PLAYERPOSGPFG%3MREBASTSTLTOBLKPTSSCORE
LeBron JamesSF4.5421.07.16.91.93.00.727.924.1
Dwight HowardC3.6030.012.81.81.42.82.220.618.2
Blake GriffinPF2.5500.110.13.40.92.30.520.316.5
LaMarcus AldridgePF4.4900.08.22.51.01.80.820.515.5
Carmelo AnthonySF4.4511.25.83.01.02.70.423.315.3
Josh SmithPF3.4760.39.64.51.52.41.517.415.2
Pau GasolPF3.5270.18.73.50.51.71.316.314.8
Chris BoshPF4.5180.18.51.90.81.90.818.614.7
Al HorfordC3.5660.08.93.41.01.51.214.714.6
Brook LopezC3.4920.06.72.10.72.01.518.814.1
Al JeffersonC4.4890.08.82.00.71.21.617.213.7
Greg MonroeC4.5270.09.22.31.41.90.714.713.2
Paul MillsapPF4.5070.17.72.51.51.71.015.412.9
Andrea BargnaniPF4.4431.45.01.70.62.00.720.812.8
DeMarcus CousinsC3.4750.09.62.51.42.80.816.812.6
David LeePF3.4990.08.73.11.12.30.415.912.6
Amar'e StoudemirePF4.4930.16.91.40.82.51.018.612.5
Anthony DavisPF3.5120.19.31.21.10.93.210.312.2
Joakim NoahC4.5150.010.22.70.71.71.411.812.1
Marc GasolC3.5150.07.72.91.02.01.913.112.0
Ryan AndersonPF3.4213.06.91.10.81.20.615.611.9
Carlos BoozerPF4.5230.08.82.20.92.00.315.611.7
Marcin GortatC4.5440.09.71.10.71.41.612.711.6
Zach RandolphPF3.4680.19.61.91.01.80.314.711.6
Kevin GarnettC5.5150.08.12.81.21.60.812.911.6

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Invest in Celtics stars in Week 3

By Tom Carpenter
ESPN.com

As always, one of the primary factors in deciding which players to use when setting weekly lineups is how many games each team plays during that seven-day stretch. Typically, we need to balance using a slightly better player who gets in the usual three games with using a slightly inferior player who plays four. This week, though, there are a couple of schedule anomalies that make deciding on Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Clippers players a pretty simple matter in general.
The Celtics have five games in Week 3, while the Clippers play just two. That means there's no reason to use the likes of Chris Paul or Blake Griffin in weekly lineups, while the Celtics will not only provide obvious stud plays from the top of their roster, but some quality options from the middle of their roster for those of us in fantasy points leagues that use larger rosters.
While that will affect some Fastbreak teams, a major change in the salary-cap version of this game in Week 3 will affect all rosters. That's because this is the first week during which the market value of players will change. They go up or down in $100K increments with a maximum one-week change of $300K. That means that if you didn't lock in Kevin Durant at $10.3 million during the first two weeks of the game, it will now cost you $10.6 million to own him in Week 3, as his market value went up $300K, based on what he did in Week 1. On the other hand, a player like Deron Williams, who struggled at first, saw his market value drop by $100K, which helps create good market-value buys.
There are a couple of strategic things to glean from this. First, true superstars like Durant and LeBron James, who rarely have a slump of any sort, will have market values that rise every single week. In other words, if you want them for the long haul, you can't wait to sign them. Granted, games played each week will be a factor in whether you use them every week for the rest of the season, but you can argue that they should just be locked up for good, regardless of other factors due to their stellar production.
One more factor to consider is the nature of a floating salary cap. This means that your team's salary cap increases or decreases as the market values of your players go up or down. For instance, my effective salary cap went up $1.3 million the first week, based on the increased market value of my players. This allows you to drop a player who has been hot for another player who plays more games this week or has better matchups.
The beauty of points leagues -- and, specifically, the floating-salary cap version of the Fastbreak game -- is the wide variety of strategies involved in creating a winning roster. With all of this in mind, let's check out some particularly good plays for Week 3.
Guards
Rajon Rondo (8.8), Boston Celtics: As I noted in previous weeks, volume of overall production is key to being an elite option in points leagues. Rondo has long been a stud in roto leagues, because he is able to singlehandedly put your team in the mix to win dimes and swipes. However, his value in points leagues has been solid, but not elite, because he hasn't done much scoring. In other words, there's only so much production we can expect from a guy who takes 11 shots and averages 11 points. Early this season, Rondo has only taken one more shot per game more than last season (11.8), but he has hit a whopping 57.4 percent of them and is averaging four more points per game (16). If he can continue to score in the teens and shoot close to 50 percent from the field, Rondo will be an elite points-league play the rest of the season. With five games this week, he's a no-brainer play in the floating salary-cap Fastbreak game. There isn't quite enough upside in Jason Terry to use him in leagues like Fastbreak, which use short rosters, but with the extra games this week, Terry is a good play in points leagues with deeper rosters.
Jrue Holiday (8.5), Philadelphia 76ers: Holiday was one of my prime sleepers this season, which is why he is on nearly all of my rosters. So far, he has lived up to expectations (both good and bad); Holiday is averaging 18.0 points, 9.5 assists, 4.0 rebounds, 2.0 3-points, 1.5 steals per game at 85.7 percent from the free throw line [e] but only 43.3 percent from the field on 15 attempts per game, plus 5.0 turnovers per game. The turnovers and shoddy field goal percentage will limit his upside a bit, but his overall volume is terrific, and he has four good matchups this week: Milwaukee Bucks, Detroit Pistons, Utah Jazz and Cleveland Cavaliers.
O.J. Mayo (8.4) and Darren Collison (8.3), Dallas Mavericks: Both Mayo and Collison have been making the most of their opportunities to succeed this season after having their hands tied with their former teams and coaches. Both Mavs have a favorable Week 3 schedule: New York Knicks, Charlotte Bobcats, Minnesota Timberwolves, Washington Wizards. They arguably are the best cheap plays out there for this stretch of games if you are hard up against your salary cap.
Forwards
Paul Pierce (9.2) and Kevin Garnett (9.1), Boston Celtics: Pierce is the more reliable play, but he'll cost you $100K more than KG. Nonetheless, both are fantastic options this week with five games apiece. Both are high-volume plays in the C's offense and carry quality percentages, which means Pierce and the Big Ticket should be solid or even high-end plays all season long, and especially this week.
Carmelo Anthony (8.9), New York Knicks:With Amar'e Stoudemire out of the picture going forward, Melo is in position to go nuts offensively. In fact, when it comes to total volume of production, he is on the short list of players who could join the likes of LeBron and Durant. The difference is that Melo will cost you $1.4 million less than Durant and $1.7 million less than LeBron this week. Anthony's 43.5 shooting percent on field goals remains an issue, but his overall production will continue to be elite in points systems due to that large volume of work. Melo is also a great investment for the next month, because the Knicks play four games each of the next four weeks.
Nicolas Batum (8.6), Portland Trail Blazers; Luol Deng (8.5), Chicago Bulls: On the cheaper end of forward contracts, I think that Batum and Deng are the best options. With Derrick Rose out for the foreseeable future, Deng is going to continue being the primary scoring option for the Bulls and that makes him the safer, steadier option of this pair. However, I think Batum carries more upside this week, though that comes with more risk of empty stat lines. Just take a look at his games thus far for a frame of reference: 30, minus-3, 33, 16, 26. However, if he can get hot for three of his four games this week, he could be a Fastbreak monster.
Center
Joakim Noah (9.1), Chicago Bulls: Just like Deng above, the door is wide open for Noah to have a huge volume of production with Rose out, and so far, he has made the most of the opportunity on offense. After five games, he is averaging 10.4 field goal attempts and 14.6 points per game; that's a big boost from the 7.7/10.2 averages from last season. As long as his body holds up, Noah is in position to be a beast on both ends of the court all season long. The only down side for Noah and Deng is they will be one-week rentals in weekly leagues because the Bulls play just twice next week.
Andrea Bargnani (8.2), Toronto Raptors: Bargs finally woke up from his early-season slumber with a 25-point Fastbreak game on Wednesday. Hopefully that is a sign of things to come, because he should be a solid play in this game when he's performing well. His schedule this week may not be ideal (Utah Jazz, Indiana Pacers, Boston Celtics, Orlando Magic), but he should be able to get going against at least two or three of those teams, which makes him a solid midrange buy this week.
Chris Kaman (7.7), Dallas Mavericks: We know two things about Kaman: The big fella can rack up quality fantasy stats when given the minutes and he most definitely will get hurt at some point. As we enter Week 3 of the NBA season, we also know that he currently is healthy and getting all of the minutes he can handle. With four games on the schedule this week, he's set up as the cheapest upside play in Fastbreak for Week 3.
 

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[h=1]Keep or cut?[/h][h=3]Who's worth dropping to pick up latest waiver-wire stars?[/h]By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

As early season games unfold and surprise fantasy value emerges from the box scores, every waiver-wire decision is two-fold: whom to add, and sometimes more difficult to determine, whom to drop? As I mentioned last week, it's important to have fluidity with your bench spots early in the season to capitalize upon available value, but at what point is it safe to drop a player who initially was viewed as a key cog in your fantasy rotation?
Of the top 100 players on the final 2011-12 Player Rater, 70 of them had an average draft position of 100 or better. Thus, 30 percent of players drafted to be part of a starting fantasy lineup did not finish in the top 100 overall.

Looking at this season, then, as a general rule it makes sense for us to hold onto about 70 percent of players drafted in the top 100, or your first seven picks in a 10-team league. Unless the player to be added is irresistible, either dripping with upside or worth starting immediately, hold onto players you drafted as unquestionable starters until we have a larger sample size with which to evaluate their season-long prospects. Among those in the lower echelon of the top 100, though, here are players I'd either hold or consider dropping, depending on your roster and league size:

Hold: Jason Terry, Andrew Bogut, JaVale McGee, Ersan Ilyasova, Brandon Knight, Nikola Pekovic, Marcus Thornton, Evan Turner, Isaiah Thomas, Gerald Wallace

Drop: Samuel Dalembert, Tony Allen, Rodney Stuckey, Elton Brand, Jared Dudley, Ben Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, Jose Calderon, Kris Humphries, Mario Chalmers, Spencer Hawes, Harrison Barnes, Jason Richardson

Cutting somebody special is tough. I often play my cassette single of "It's So Hard to Say Goodbye to Yesterday" while making roster cuts to affect the mood accordingly. It gets weird around here sometimes. On the bright side, let's take a look at some shiny new faces that are widely available and worth considering as waiver-wire additions:


E'Twaun Moore, SG, Orlando Magic (38.1 percent owned): With injuries to Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu, Arron Afflalo has been playing the 3, and Moore, with his excellent jumper, has responded impressively in the starting lineup, averaging 13.8 points with 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.8 3-pointers and 1.0 steals per game. He had a stellar preseason, averaging 11.4 points with 2.9 3s per game, and averaged 18.0 points with 2.1 3s and 1.2 steals in his senior season at Purdue. The all-around production should drop off some once playmakers Nelson and Turkoglu return, but the shooting is legit, as he shot 40 percent from downtown in college. He's developing his point guard abilities, and has good basic facilitation skills but needs to continue to grow in that area to play the point in the NBA for an extended period of time. Despite his mediocre athleticism, he's capable defensively, has a winner's mentality, and should continue seeing minutes and shine as a spot-up shooter all season.

Byron Mullens, PF/C, Charlotte Bobcats (35.4 percent owned): His preseason 3-point shooting barrage was a hot topic, then he started the season slowly from downtown until exploding for 6-for-10 shooting from behind the arc Wednesday. He is primed to contribute heavily in the category. He extended his range to long 2-pointers in his mini-breakout campaign last season, and now that he's draining 3s, his fantasy value has a new potential as he's primed to put up Channing Frye-esque stats. Despite the 8.3 rebounds per game so far, he's a poor rebounder for his size, and will provide subpar defensive stats from a center, but will give you nice out-of-position stats and is an ideal complementary piece if you have a guard like Dwyane Wade or Rajon Rondo who doesn't nail 3s and need to compensate elsewhere on your roster.

Danny Green, SG, San Antonio Spurs (24.5 percent owned): My favorite aspect of Green's college stats is his 1.5 3s, 1.8 steals and 1.3 blocks per game his senior season at North Carolina. That type of combo is rare from a shooting guard, and although it took him a few years to get going, he flashed that skill set in 23.1 minutes per game last season, averaging 1.5 3s, 0.7 steals and 0.9 blocks per game. The biggest difference this year is minutes, as he's starting and averaging 30.2 minutes, with 2.4 3s, 0.8 steals and 0.6 blocks per game. He can score, too, and although his percentages are average, he never turns the ball over. Those "glue" stats he provides are typically reserved to small forwards or power forwards, so Green has extra value providing them from the shooting guard slot and is worth adding in all leagues.

Kevin Seraphin, PF/C, Washington Wizards (24.2 percent owned): We got a glimpse of Seraphin's potential in April, when he averaged 15.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.7 blocks and 0.6 steals in 15 games. He scores efficiently by keeping his attempts close to the rim, as he averaged just 0.7 shots from beyond 10 feet last year, so the 22-year-old not only provides blocks, he produces points and a solid field goal percentage. He had an impressive run in the Olympics with the French national team, averaging 1.3 blocks per game. With Nene out, he should get plenty of opportunity to produce, and is clearly a future part of this franchise.

Taj Gibson, PF, Chicago Bulls (15.5 percent owned): With the Bulls extending Gibson's contract and Omer Asik out of the picture, logic dictates that his minutes at some point will increase into the upper 20's, a threshold he hasn't hit since his rookie year. His per-minute defensive stats are stellar (6.2 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, 0.5 steals in 23.2 minutes per game in his career), and he's on a shot-blocking spree to start the season, averaging 2.5 in just 19.5 minutes per game. This is more of a speculative add. Until he gets more minutes, his production will be inconsistent, but he's too productive per-minute and tied to the Bulls' long-term plan to not eventually earn more playing time. When he does, you'll be pleased if he's on your fantasy roster.

Larry Sanders, PF/C, Milwaukee Bucks (14.7 percent owned): Like Gibson, Sanders has been a per-minute stud so far in his career, and now he's getting more run, more than doubling his minutes from 12.4 last season to 26.0 in three games this year, averaging 3.0 blocks per game. It's a small sample size and the Bucks' frontcourt is convoluted with Ersan Ilyasova, Drew Gooden, Samuel Dalembert and Ekpe Udoh soaking up minutes, but he's separating himself with impressive raw skills. I wouldn't expect double-digit scoring, although he should be efficient, as most of his baskets are around the rim, and he should be a regular on the "SportsCenter" top plays with his elite athleticism. Where he makes his money is on the defensive end, as Sanders could average 2.5 blocks and 1.0 steals per game if his minutes stay in the mid 20's.


Steve Blake, PG, Los Angeles Lakers (3.2 percent owned): There's nothing exciting about Blake other than the fact that for the next month, he's the starting point guard for a team loaded with offensive options, and he should provide modest assists, steals and 3s. Blake struggled from downtown last season, averaging just 33.5 percent on 3-point attempts, a number that's jumped up to 43.8 percent this season. He's averaging 3.6 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.4 3s thus far, and will be a dependable 3-category player until Steve Nash returns.


Randy Foye, PG/SG, Utah Jazz (3.1 percent owned): He's bound to be erratic in the sixth man role for the Jazz, although has shown throughout his career capable of scoring as well as providing 3s and steals. No longer attempting to be a do-it-all combo guard, he's settled in as a scoring and 3-point specialist, which has improved his productivity. He's scored in double figures in four of Utah's five games, and should provide double-digit scoring with about two 3s per game, similar numbers to his career year last season, and worthy of a spot for teams in deeper leagues that need 3s.

Jonas Jerebko, SF/PF, Detroit Pistons (0.3 percent owned): Like Seraphin, Gibson and Sanders, Jerebko deserves to play more, and once he does, helpful fantasy stats should follow. He has a nice-looking stroke on his outside shot, can be effective in the high post, and provides energy to a team lacking dynamism. He won't wow in any category but has the potential to be an above-average, across-the-board contributor with nice percentages, and his counting stats should flirt with one 3, one steal and half a block if he gets his minutes in the upper 20's. Another speculative add for deeper leagues who could click as rotations shake out.

For more about potential pickups and other fantasy analysis during the week, follow me on Twitter, and as always be sure to watch plenty of actual basketball, the best way to pick up on player trends that don't show up in the box scores.
 

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Value of True Shooting Percentage

By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

If you've read this column in the past, you've probably seen me refer to a specific player's strong field goal or free throw percentage as "hidden value." The reasoning is simple. Even though field goal percentage and free throw percentage account for 25 percent of the scoring in standard eight-category leagues, they're less prioritized by owners.

It's ingrained in all of us to prize the volume-based categories: points scored, 3-pointers made, rebounds, blocked shots and steals. You don't hear a lot of ballyhoo when an NBA player wins the field goal or free throw percentage title. Not in, say, the way a baseball player is lauded for winning the batting title or leading his league in ERA. (It's more like leading the league in WHIP.)

Don't get defensive. It's not just us. Real-life NBA owners do it too. League leaders in 3-point percentage make less than league leaders in blocked shots and steals; there was a really good Wall Street Journal article on this a couple of years ago.

If you want to take a Moneyball approach to fantasy basketball and build around undervalued statistics, start with the percentages.

The percentage categories provide fantasy basketball with balance. Balance because they hold players accountable for their efficiency, or lack of it.

But there's another aspect to consider when considering percentage: 3-point production.

If a player is shooting 42 percent from the floor but has a high number of 3-point attempts, it's far more acceptable. We need to make allowances for players whose field goal percentage might be falsely depressed just because they take more shots from downtown, provided they're making at least 37 percent of those shots.

If only there were a statistic that would account for a players' total array of attempts from the field, a metric that folded free throw attempts with field goal attempts while making allowances for 3-pointers. This would prove enormously important to fantasy owners looking for a quick way to gauge a player's overall impact on their teams' percentages.

It would probably look something like this: Points Scored / [2 x (Field Goal Attempts + 0.44 x Free Throw Attempts)]

Actually, it would look exactly like that. Because that's how one divines True Shooting Percentage.

I think of True Shooting Percentage as a sort of CliffsNotes of how a player is going to affect my fantasy team in the percentage categories. When I'm drafting a team, I prioritize players who excel in this stat. A .500 TS% is about average, .550 is very good, and anything over .600 is exceptional.

Last year's final leaderboard in True Shooting Percentage:

Tyson Chandler .708
Manu Ginobili .668
James Harden .660
Brandon Rush .628
DeAndre Jordan .626
Steve Nash .625
Kenneth Faried .618
Kevin Durant .610
Nikola Pekovic .607
Ray Allen .605
LeBron James .605
Mike Dunleavy .597
Andrew Bynum .594
Ryan Anderson .589

Aside from a lot of big men, the list is seasoned with three fantasy elites: Harden, Durant and LeBron. When I wrote in a preseason column that Durant was actually worth closer to $90 in auction leagues, his TS% was the main reason.

True Shooting Percentage was why Harden was already a top-15 player coming into this season before the trade to Houston. And it's why now, despite averaging 10 points per game over his 2011-12 average, Harden is actually a slot lower on the Player Rater (14th instead of 13th).

Thanks to being the Rockets' No. 1 option, Harden's shot attempts have gone up, so he is scoring more (up from 16.8 to 26.5). But because he is the focus of opposing defenses, he isn't getting the same number of open looks as he had with Durant helping space the floor and his field goal percentage has taken a hit (from .491 to .443, and .390 to .270 from downtown). His free throw percentage has dipped slightly from .846 to .825, but he is getting to line at an incredibly high rate (9.5 attempts per game).

This means his high-flying True Shooting Percentage has taken a slight dip, dropping from .660 to .568. Now, .568 is still very good for a guard, but all of this probably means Harden is due for a correction. One could assume his points per game will level off just as his percentages will rise.

We're not even 10 percent into the season, so percentages are hardly written in stone. But it's important -- especially in Rotisserie scoring leagues -- to pay special attention to TS% in the early going. The first couple of weeks are when we see a lot of post-draft maneuvers due to owners overreacting to perceived deficiencies in their teams versus pre-draft projections. (I stress the importance in Rotisserie leagues, because it's harder to make up ground in the percentages as the year rolls on and aggregate volume increases.)

Another byproduct of the small sample size is the high degree of variance in TS%. Some players have come out of the gate on fire, some like the second coming of Antoine Walker (a career TS% of .484).

Thankfully, we have history on our side. We can take a look at some players who are bound to rise and fall in TS% as the season progresses.

(Stats in parentheses are through Sunday's games.)

[h=3]On the way up[/h]
1. Rodney Stuckey, PG/SG, Detroit Pistons (2012-13 TS% .342, Career TS% .510)
I've never been a huge Stuckey fan, but no one is this bad. Keep in mind this doesn't include Monday night's bounce back against the Thunder, where Stuckey went for 19 points on 7-for-13 from the floor and 4-for-6 from the line. Stuckey has never been efficient from the field (.420 career FG%, .278 3PT%), but historically he has made up for it with a gaudy .834 FT%. If he's still available in your league, make sure you won't regret scooping him up when he's back to averaging 16 points a night.

2. Roy Hibbert, C, Indiana Pacers
(2012-13 TS% .392, Career TS% .521)

Hibbert's minutes are up from last season (30.6 per game versus 29.8). His fouls are down (a career low 3.4 per 36 minutes). The blocks are there (2.2 per game). The Pacers need his scoring in Danny Granger's absence. So what gives? It's not just his shot that's off. Hibbert is averaging a full rebound less per game (7.7 versus 8.8). If he is right and merely suffering from a rhythm issue, you won't regret purloining him from a skittish owner.

3. Ersan Ilyasova, SF/PF, Milwaukee Bucks
(2012-13 TS% .363, Career TS% .530)

On the surface, this has post-contract year letdown written all over it. He is down from 13.0 ppg and 8.8 rpg to 7.6 and 5.2 plus a 20-point crater in his field goal percentage. But it's early. While he was absolutely locked in last season from Valentine's Day onward, before that he had a reputation for being streaky. Yes, he is probably due for a letdown campaign, but he simply has nowhere to go but up. Let's hope Monday night (2 points in 18 minutes) was his nadir. (If he hasn't been dropped in your league already, you must be in a league that's very pro-Ottoman Empire.) Just be prepared to grab him the first night he goes off.

4. Austin Rivers, PG/SG, New Orleans Hornets (2012-13 TS% .302, .538 last season at Duke)
Yes, I just referenced someone's college statistics. But Rivers has been hurt and simply can't continue to shoot 22 percent from the field. Those are John Cregan-esque shooting numbers, folks (but I do bring intangibles). With Eric Gordon out from 4 to 52 weeks, Rivers will get plenty of opportunities to play himself into fantasy consideration.

5. Danilo Gallinari, SF, Denver Nuggets (2012-13 TS% .407, Career TS% .575)
While I did predict Gallinari would not have the breakout campaign many predicted, I'll also tell you he is currently a great buy-low target in all leagues. He is averaging a career-high 36.2 minutes per game. His per-36 minute numbers last season: 16.7 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.6 3-pointers and 0.9 steals. Those are reasonable expectations. He is nursing issues in his hip and his ankle. He has played six games. Go get him while the price is right.

Other slow starters: Steve Nash (.375), Tony Parker (.447), Ty Lawson (.431), Josh Smith (.381), Pau Gasol (.464), Greg Monroe (.474)

[h=3]Cruising for a correction[/h]
1. Kevin Martin, SG, Oklahoma City Thunder
(2012-13 TS% .716, Career TS% .596)

Playing with Durant and Westbrook is going to get you the kinds of low-pressure looks more normally associated with games of H-O-R-S-E. But no one under 6-foot-10 is ever -- ever -- going to have a TS% of .716 over a full season. Tyson Chandler set a single-season record last season with a TS% of .708, and he's a very tall man.

2. Kyle Lowry, PG, Toronto Raptors (2012-13 TS% .703, Career TS% .547)
I love a heartwarming fantasy success story as much as the next guy. I couldn't be happier Lowry was utterly unconscious for his first four games as a Raptor. He's been underrated for years. But he's still one of the streakiest guards in the league.

3. Danny Green, SG, San Antonio Spurs (.671 TS%, Career TS% .581)
He is elite from downtown, the kind of guy who will give you a little something, somewhere for your box score every night. I adore players capable of giving you a block, a steal and a 3-pointer a game. But he is mired in a timeshare. Until he starts to post an increase in his shot attempts, he is a marginal fantasy player in shallow leagues. He's not even averaging 12 points per game with a TS% that's nine points above his career average. When he regresses, the points per game will drop back under 10.

4. O.J. Mayo, SG, Dallas Mavericks (2012-13 TS% .667, Career TS% .534)
During the preseason, I wrote how the Mavericks were in line to offer all kinds of undervalued fantasy production. It's what happens when there's a lot of roster turnover and diminished league-wide expectations. But Dirk Nowitzki's absence has meant that the new guys are getting more shot attempts than they've had in years. Mayo was a bad fit in Memphis. He is going to be very good this season and provide great value -- just not quite this much.

5. Kobe Bryant, SG, Los Angeles Lakers (2012-13 TS% .662, Career TS% .555)
Historically, one of Kobe's greatest traits has been how he elevates his efficiency when his team needs him the most. (Dirk does this too.) Kobe has had to do a lot of heavy lifting in the early going, but the cavalry has arrived, especially with Mike D'Antoni now leading the way. However, Kobe is going to take his foot off the accelerator and pick his spots as the season progresses.

Other too-fast starters: Andrei Kirilenko (.629), Jamal Crawford (.649), Chris Bosh (.625), Mike Conley (.625), Jeff Teague (.646)
 

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[h=1]Strong starters[/h][h=3]Will J.R. Smith, Jeff Teague, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist stay atop Player Rater?[/h]By Seth Landman | Special to ESPN.com

(Ranking based on per-game averages in parentheses)

<!-- begin player card -->
2444.jpg
[h=4]J.R. Smith[/h][h=5]#8 SG
New York Knicks[/h]2012-13 STATS

  • GM5
  • PPG18.2
  • RPG4.8
  • APG3.2
  • FG%.493
  • FT%.889


<!-- end player card -->
J.R. Smith, SG/SF, New York Knicks (9): Smith has been the best possible version of himself, shooting with deadly accuracy and trading a bit of usage for a slight uptick in assist rate. That version of Smith can be a star, and he is averaging 18.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists to go along with 2.6 3-pointers and 2.2 steals through his first five games. After Carmelo Anthony, Smith has been the Knicks' best scorer, which is going to need to continue with some consistency all season if the team is going to be successful. Smith's ability to move between shooting guard and small forward is of particular help to the Knicks, but it's going to be interesting to see what happens when Amar'e Stoudemire returns. Even if Stoudemire comes off the bench, as many have speculated, his presence in the lineup against other teams' backups will cut down on some of Smith's most bountiful opportunities. You can also consider the fact that we have seen this kind of production from Smith from time to time over the years. He has greatness in him, but it reveals itself in fits and starts. If he can keep firebombing from the 3-point line and hovering in passing lanes on the other end, he is going to be a fantasy stud all season; if not, you'll wish you traded him while you had the chance.

<!-- begin player card -->
4015.jpg
[h=4]Jeff Teague[/h][h=5]#0 PG
Atlanta Hawks[/h]2012-13 STATS

  • GM6
  • PPG14.3
  • RPG2.7
  • APG7.2
  • FG%.531
  • FT%.929


<!-- end player card -->
Jeff Teague, PG, Atlanta Hawks (25): Among the guys ahead of him on the Player Rater at the moment, only Anthony Davis is playing fewer minutes per game. I point that out for a couple of reasons. First, Teague has been remarkable this season on a per-minute basis, which bodes well for his future. Second, Teague is on a team with Louis Williams and Devin Harris, so it's not always going to be easy for him to rack up minutes no matter how well he's playing. In the early part of the season, it has been an advantage, as Teague has been extremely efficient in his limited action. He is sixth in the league in assists per minute and is right outside the top 20 in steals. When you add those factors to his hot shooting, he has been extraordinarily valuable. I like Teague as a player, but I have my doubts. My guess is that he hovers right around 30 minutes per game all season. That's a nice number, but not enough to make him an elite fantasy option unless he continues playing over his head. Beyond that, his percentages are not going to stay this high forever. Teague is an improving shooter, but one still wouldn't claim that as one of his strengths. He is going to destroy his Average Draft Position of 83.4, but crashing the top-50 party for the season is going to be a reach. It might be time to consider selling high.

<!-- begin player card -->
i
[h=4]Michael Kidd-Gilchrist[/h][h=5]#14 SF
Charlotte Bobcats[/h]2012-13 STATS

  • GM6
  • PPG12.7
  • RPG7.7
  • APG1.3
  • FG%.491
  • FT%.792


<!-- end player card -->
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Charlotte Bobcats (39): I'm not exactly breaking news that the Bobcats are not a deep squad. They don't have a talented squad either. As usual, the Cats are devoid of promise and potential -- as well as ability -- at most positions. Kidd-Gilchrist (as well as another early fantasy success-story in Kemba Walker) is a glaring exception. Among rookies, only Davis and Andre Drummond are ahead of MKG in PER, and MKG is playing more minutes than either of them. Those minutes are increasing too. He played just 20 minutes in the opener, but since then he has played at least 27 minutes in each game, including 41 against the Dallas Mavericks. I usually don't like arguing for rookies in fantasy leagues, but his potential in the defense categories is just too hard to ignore. He'll probably go through his share of slumps, but he's a good bet to keep producing in those categories for a long, long time. Last week, I wrote about how Al-Farouq Aminu reminded me of a young Gerald Wallace, but Kidd-Gilchrist has a chance to be a much better version of the original.

<!-- begin player card -->
3438.jpg
[h=4]George Hill[/h][h=5]#3 PG
Indiana Pacers[/h]2012-13 STATS

  • GM8
  • PPG15.5
  • RPG4.1
  • APG4.8
  • FG%.435
  • FT%.864


<!-- end player card -->
George Hill, PG/SG, Indiana Pacers (45): Any question about whether Hill was going to lose minutes to D.J. Augustin appear to have been answered in the negative, at least for now. Augustin has made just seven field goals on the season and seems to be remaining in the tailspin of terrible shooting he started last season. In the meantime, Hill has been one of the rare bright spots on a Pacers team that has major problems. After an 18-point performance against the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday in a game in which just 146 points were scored by both teams combined, he is averaging 15.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.4 3s, and 1.3 steals. Those numbers won't blow you away, but when you couple them with great free throw shooting, he starts to look like a player capable of remaining in the top 50 all season if things break right. If Augustin finds his stroke, all bets are off; Hill isn't good enough to warrant the heavy workload he is getting at the moment. It's far more likely, though, that Augustin continues to sputter and Hill puts up these modest-but-valuable numbers all season.

<!-- begin player card -->
3244.jpg
[h=4]Thaddeus Young[/h][h=5]#21 SF
Philadelphia 76ers[/h]2012-13 STATS

  • GM7
  • PPG13.9
  • RPG7.3
  • APG1.4
  • FG%.553
  • FT%.765


<!-- end player card -->
Thaddeus Young, SF/PF, Philadelphia 76ers (56): At first glance, it appears that Young has improved his game (especially as it pertains to his fantasy stats), but pretty quickly some serious questions arise. He has coupled a career-low usage rate with a career-high True Shooting Percentage, and while he's not scoring as much as he probably could, you're not going to find many other players capable of shooting 55 percent on more than 10 field goal attempts per game, and none of those guys get as many steals as Young gets. So he's a valuable fantasy option, but the reason he is just outside the top 50 instead of being outside the top 100 (as he's been in previous seasons) comes down to minutes. The 35.4 minutes per game he is averaging would be a career-high, as would his 7.3 rebounds and 1.7 steals. I'm skeptical as to whether he can keep it up if and when Andrew Bynum makes his way back onto the court. In the meantime, Young will be an important player in your league, but one you'll have to wonder whether it's worth cutting bait on before things change.
 

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Luke Ridnour a dependable pickup

By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

I'm often posed the following brand of question on Twitter: "Should I pick up Player A or Player B?" And while I do my best to answer these queries in a vacuum, it's typically not straightforward, because there are key questions to answer regarding the role waiver additions will assume on a team.
First, will he likely start for your fantasy team? In this instance, I tend to recommend the steadier, more dependable producers. Or will he likely occupy a bench spot on your roster? If so, I lean toward higher-upside players, even if they're inconsistent. I favor these players for bench slots because they have the potential to reap a larger payoff if their minutes increase, development escalates, or other beneficial circumstances occur, despite being less of a sure thing.

If your new addition is likely starting, that's where the question of team needs comes in. This will be a common theme in this column all season, because the key in-season strategy a successful fantasy owner employs is cultivating a balanced roster. Look at your standings, and when deciding between two players worth adding, evaluate what they contribute and which most benefits your team.

Here are some widely available options worth considering for a roster spot; just make sure you're asking yourself the right questions about what you need from a player before scooping him up:

Luke Ridnour, PG/SG, Minnesota Timberwolves (40.7 percent owned): Ridnour exemplifies the type of dependable player I mentioned who's worth adding if you are going to start him. He has a low ceiling, but will get playing time even when Ricky Rubio returns, as he played shooting guard alongside Rubio for significant stretches last season, and has a reliable skill set providing some points, 3-pointers, assists and steals. He's currently on a tear with J.J. Barea and Brandon Roy sidelined, averaging 13.7 points, 6.7 assists, 2.7 steals and 1.3 3s per game in his past three contests. His increase in 3-pointers from 0.9 per game last season to 1.3 this season in fewer minutes is legit. He shot 32.2 percent from downtown last season, well below his career average of 35.9, and his accuracy on 3-pointers has improved consistently throughout his career, so expect more than one per game with double-digit scoring, and more than a steal and about five assists per game.

Emeka Okafor, C, Washington Wizards (8.8 percent owned): His career stats have been trending downward the past several seasons, perhaps due to nagging knee issues. But he's shot better than 53 percent from the floor, with at least 1.0 blocks and 0.6 steals, in each of the past six seasons, and is averaging 29.3 minutes per game in his past four contests. He'll never live up to the hype of being selected first overall in the 2004 draft, but if he's getting 25-plus minutes per night, he should be a steady source of rebounds, field goal percentage and blocks with decent steals for a center. And with Nene still sidelined and the team in need of a veteran leader in the frontcourt, Okafor should be given as many opportunities as his balky knees can handle.

Shannon Brown, SG, Phoenix Suns (7.8 percent owned): He's thriving in the role of offensive spark plug off the bench, averaging 17.4 points and 2.3 3s in his past five contests. Despite the fact he's actually averaging fewer minutes per game this season, his numbers are up due primarily to improved 3-point shooting (up to 44.4 percent from 36.2) and an increase in free throw attempts (up to 3.5 per game from 1.7). Brown will be erratic, but is the type of player to stash on your bench because he has the potential to be a legitimate fantasy starter if injuries or lineup shakeups occur, as evidenced by his 31.2 points per 48 minutes, good for seventh in the league.

Andre Drummond, PF/C, Detroit Pistons (2.1 percent owned): Drummond is looking like the next Derrick Favors in the fantasy sense -- dripping with potential and capable of posting tantalizing per-minute statistics, but not in line to get enough playing time to be worth starting. His per-48 minute stats of 20.0 points, 15.7 rebounds, 3.1 blocks and 2.3 steals per game demonstrate this athletic 7-footer's capabilities in limited stretches, although the Pistons are committed to bringing him along slowly. He won't be worth even thinking about starting for standard fantasy teams unless injuries attack the Detroit frontcourt. Yet. He's the type of high-upside player worth the final bench spot for a fantasy owner who won't rely upon him to start, because he could be a late-season lottery ticket that hits if his playing time increases.

Patrick Patterson, PF, Houston Rockets (1.9 percent owned): Patterson has been a favorite of mine since he was drafted out, due to the well-rounded skill set he showed off in college at Kentucky, where he averaged 16.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.6 blocks and 0.7 steals while shooting 58.5 percent from the floor in three steady seasons for a loaded Kentucky squad. The most promising aspect of his game this season is the 30 minutes per contest, in which he's averaging 11.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 0.5 3s, steals and blocks. He thrives in the pick-and-pop game, shooting 43 percent on shots between 16 feet and 23 feet last season, which should mesh well with playmakers James Harden and Jeremy Lin and continue to develop. It was questionable what kind of run he'd get amid the slew of comparable forwards in Houston, but he seems to be in line for significant minutes and should provide modest across-the-board production.

Corey Brewer, SF, Denver Nuggets (1.8 percent owned): After spending the entire offseason working tirelessly on his shooting stroke, Brewer is primed to shake off the "bust" label and put up a career season that also happens to be a contract year. The improvement in his shooting is for real; it began last season, when he showed improved accuracy on shots beyond 10 feet, and this year it's extended to 3-point range, as he's shooting 37.8 percent from downtown on more than twice as many attempts per game compared to last season's 26.0 percent mark. His per-48 minute stats of 23.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.6 3s and 2.4 steals are staggering, and although he won't get starter's minutes on a deep Nuggets roster unless injuries strike, he's the type of fantasy player who can contribute in fewer minutes due to his high steal rate (Brewer ranked seventh in the league last season) and improved long-range shooting.

Quick Hits

Jason Thompson (22.0 percent owned) has benefited from suspensions to DeMarcus Cousins and Thomas Robinson, but was starting and getting minutes in the upper-20s beforehand. With his career 49.8 field goal percentage and respectable 6.9 rebounds, 0.7 blocks and 0.7 steals per game last season, he's a reliable option in deeper leagues. … Jason Richardson (14.5 percent owned) dropped 20 points with three 3s and two steals in 36 minutes in his first game of the season Monday, and should be a reliable source of 3-pointers. He's only 31 years old, although it seems like he's been in the league forever, and should get plenty of PT considering all he has to do is hold off Nick Young. … Jimmer Fredette (0.6 percent owned) is first in the league with 36.8 points per 48 minutes, and although he's not worth adding in most formats, he's demonstrating that with more playing time he still has the potential to be a viable fantasy option at some point. … Eric Bledsoe (4.6 percent owned) is the perfect player to stash in hopes of him getting more minutes, as he's absolutely dominant for stretches, and is scoring more points per minute than Monta Ellis. … If you're looking for steals, Trevor Ariza (17.8 percent owned) is averaging 2.3 swipes per game. His career 1.4 steals per game in 25.6 minutes is impressive, and while his contributions elsewhere are minimal, steals are hard to come by, and in deeper leagues he's a valid target if you're desperate in the category. … Kyle Korver (2.4 percent owned) is averaging 26 minutes per game this season, by far his most since 2007-08, and should finish with about two 3s per game with the uptick. The situation in Atlanta is ideal for a spot-up shooter who gets most of his 3s off assists, because there are several playmakers in the Hawks' backcourt, so look for him to keep draining. … In deep turnover leagues, Shane Battier (1.3 percent owned) is a nice glue player, averaging 1.4 3s, 0.9 blocks and 0.8 steals with just 0.8 turnovers per game. He provides very little in points, rebounds and assists, but does give a nice combination of secondary stats with very low turnovers, so don't ignore him in that specific format.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,222
Tokens
[h=1]DeAndre Jordan best big man?[/h][h=3]Duncan sneaks onto barometer, and Drummond is surprising everybody[/h]By Bradford Doolittle | Basketball Prospectus

This week, the Big Man Barometer tallies up the performances of all the power forwards and centers across the league and ranks them using season-to-date WARP.

The missing name is Carmelo Anthony, who has played power forward for about 72 percent of his minutes during New York's five-game winning streak to start the season. Clearly, Anthony has been a big part of the Knicks' fast start. He has used 34.1 percent of the Knicks' possessions while on the floor, making him the highest-volume offensive player in the league. But New York has played just five games, and WARP is a function of both efficiency and playing time, and through no fault of his own Anthony hasn't logged as much time as other top players around the league.


Top big men from the last week are ranked by individual winning percentage, the rate stat component of WARP. Our exclusive schedule-adjusted projections use a combination of SCHOENE forecasts and season-to-date data. We'll be predicting the weekly numbers for NBA big men based on a Monday-to-Sunday schedule suitable for weekly head-to-head fantasy leagues.

By this method, SCHOENE is combined with actual results to product a new baseline forecast for each player. These are then adjusted for a player's upcoming opponents and how well those competitors have defended his position. The projections are compiled in a module of NBAPET, my system for projecting, evaluating and tracking the league.
For the week of Nov. 7 to Nov. 13; Players listed by winning percentage; Any player who played a total of at least 30 minutes at center or power forward last week is eligible for the rankings. Also included at the bottom are big man projections for next week.
<offer>[h=3]1. DeAndre Jordan | Los Angeles Clippers (.892)[/h]
<!--INLINE MUG-->
i

<center>Jordan</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
The emergence of Jordan is a major reason why the Clippers have exceeded expectations that were pretty high to begin with. Jordan was simply fantastic last week, highlighted by 20 points, 11 boards and four blocks against Tim Duncan and the Spurs. The next night, Jordan scored 20 against Portland, and in the two games combined, he shot 18-of-22 from the floor. Even more impressive for Jordan was that after missing his first six free throws this season, he made 7-of-9 from the line last week. For the season, he's shooting 71.4 percent from the floor. Sure, most of that is at the rim on dunks, but he's also hit 6-of-7 on shots between 5 to 9 feet, according to NBA.com/stats. He's simply getting better.
<offer>
<center>
</center>
[h=3]2. LeBron James | Miami Heat (.875)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
i

<center>James</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
No matter what is going on around him, James just brings it every night. He has scored at least 20 points in every game this season and made at least half his shots in each game except one, when he went 8-for-17. He's reached double digits in rebounding in six of Miami's first eight games. Right now, he's averaging 9.4 rebounds per game. He has never averaged as many as eight, so it's clear James isn't shirking that aspect of playing power forward. His rebound percentages are at career-high levels at both ends of the floor. James is playing every bit as well as in his most recent MVP season of 2011-12.

<center>
</center>
[h=3]3. Anthony Davis | New Orleans Hornets (.856)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
i

<center>Davis</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
Davis got into just one game last week after missing time with a concussion, but he logged 37 minutes in that game to qualify for the Barometer leaderboard. He showed no ill effects of a head injury, recording 23 points, 11 boards and five blocks against Charlotte. Think Bobcats fans were having flashbacks to lottery night, when they hoped the reward for a 7-59 nightmare would be the chance to draft Davis?

<center>
</center>
[h=3]4. Andre Drummond | Detroit Pistons (.850)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
i

<center>Bosh</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
Drummond has played with much more activity and confidence than anyone could have thought, though Lawrence Frank failed to use him for more than 22 minutes in any of Detroit's eight losses to start the season. For any Pistons fans wary of drafting a seemingly raw UConn big man, consider this: Drummond's 22 points against Oklahoma City last week were 12 more than Hasheem Thabeet has ever scored in an NBA game. The Pistons have been 4.8 points per 100 possessions less bad with Drummond on the floor, though surprisingly that's been primarily due to the offensive lift Drummond has provided. Can a full-time pairing of Drummond and Greg Monroe in the Detroit frontcourt be far off?

<center>
</center>
[h=3]5. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs (.791)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
i

<center>Duncan</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
Duncan provided ample evidence of his rejuvenation in back-to-back road games last week at Sacramento and Portland. Against the Kings, Duncan had 23 points on 9-of-12 shooting, 12 boards and four blocks. The next night, he shot 7-of-12 against the Blazers and tallied 22 points, nine boards and three blocks. On a per-minute basis, Duncan is scoring more than he has in five years. Even more startling is what Duncan is doing on the other end. His block percentage thus far is the highest of his 16-year career. That's just not supposed to happen.

<center>
</center>
[h=3]6. Ryan Anderson, New Orleans Hornets (.759)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
i

<center>Anderson</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
Anderson had the best game so far for the Hornets, scoring 25 points and hitting five 3-pointers in a win over Charlotte; Davis also had a big game, and the ability of those two to share the floor and play off each other had to be exciting for New Orleans fans. However, it wasn't a matter of Davis or Anderson sliding over to the 3. The pair shared the frontcourt minutes with Robin Lopez and Jason Smith in largely traditional configurations.
<center>
</center>
[h=3]7. Dorell Wright, Philadelphia 76ers (.754)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
i

<center>Wright</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
The Sixers have scrambled for scoring this season, and the notion that Philadelphia was going to be one of the league's biggest teams is currently forgotten. With Andrew Bynum out and Spencer Hawes and Lavoy Allen coming off the bench, the Sixers have played smaller than all but New York and Cleveland in the early going. That's not just because of Thaddeus Young's presence in the starting lineup, either. Last week, Wright played more than a third of his minutes as a stretch 4 and was even coded as playing center for two minutes of one game. Whatever Wright played, he did it well, scoring 51 points in four games, hitting 12 3-pointers and picking up 11 steals on the other end.

<center>
</center>
[h=3]8. Chris Bosh, Miami Heat (.741)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
i

<center>Bosh</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
Bosh had a particularly active week. Not only did he score 22 or more points in three of his four games, but he did it as more than a jump shooter. Bosh averaged seven foul shots per game last week. His work close to the basket resulted in more offensive boards than normal, a high shooting percentage and excellent bottom-line efficiency.

<center>
</center>
[h=3]9. Anderson Varejao, Cleveland Cavaliers (.723)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
i

<center>Varejao</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
Varejao is having an unbelievable season, ranking eighth among all players in WARP to start the season. He put up the league's most eye-popping stat line of the season on Tuesday, especially when you consider he was the one doing it. Varejao had 35 points on 16-of-21 shooting and grabbed 18 rebounds against Brooklyn in a performance that ought to permanently validate Brook Lopez's performance as a bad defensive center. The 16 field goals were six more than Varejao had ever made in a game, and he got all but two of those shots right at the rim. However, to mention Lopez is not to sell short Varejao's overall season to date. He is shooting 61 percent from the floor, and his scoring average of 15.9 is more than five points above his previous career best. He's also the best percentage rebounder in the league so far.

<center>
</center>
[h=3]10. Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz (.702)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
i

<center>Millsap</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
Millsap capped a solid week with a great performance in a win at Toronto, scoring 34 points on 11-of-16 shooting. We've started to see more of the big lineup that the Jazz used so effectively late season, with Millsap playing the 3. He played 23 minutes at the position last week, and for the season he's logged 12.5 percent of his time there. Utah has outscored opponents by 24 points per 100 possessions with Millsap playing the 3. He's not in danger of losing his Barometer slot anytime soon, but it's a trend worth watching.

<center>
</center>
[h=3]Three to watch[/h]
Anthony Davis, New Orleans Hornets
<!--INLINE MUG-->
i

<center>Davis</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
Davis has four games next week, including back-to-back contests against New York and Indiana that will provide two unique challenges. Against the Knicks, Davis will at times find himself matched up with Anthony, and from that we may get our first indicators of just how much positional versatility lies ahead in Davis' future. Can the rookie be the antidote to the Knicks' small lineup? Indiana has a traditional lineup and Davis will be tasked with defending the rugged David West. Later in the week, Davis will go against Phoenix and Denver.

<center>
</center>
Carlos Boozer, Chicago Bulls
<!--INLINE MUG-->
i

<center>Boozer</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
Boozer has struggled out of the gate, wilting from the challenge of stepping up his production to help compensate for Derrick Rose's absence. Instead, Joakim Noah has become more effective on offense, with much of the Bulls' half-court action running through Noah in the high post rather than Boozer on the low block. Boozer's poor shooting has been at the root of the trouble -- he had just a .483 true shooting percentage through Tuesday -- leaving him with about a sixth of Noah's WARP (1.62 to 0.25) and less value than even that of reserve teammate Jimmy Butler.

<center>
</center>
Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves
<!--INLINE MUG-->
i

<center>Pekovic</center>
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Pekovic is one player who has stepped up play in the face of injured teammates; his interior scoring has been a big reason Minnesota has been able to tread water with Kevin Love on the sideline. Pekovic is second on the team to Derrick Williams in usage rate and has been very efficient, with a .575 true shooting percentage. Pekovic isn't a great defensive center, which limits him to about 30 minutes per game. Minnesota's three opponents next week -- Denver, Portland and Golden State -- lack top interior scoring, so Pekovic's minutes and production could be at an apex.

Here are the top 25 big man projections for the week of Nov. 19-25 (all the players who qualified for this week's Barometer rankings).
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Top 25 Big Man projections[/h]
PLAYERPOSGPFG%3MREBASTSTLTOBLKPTSSCORE
LeBron JamesSF2.5481.07.67.31.93.40.728.624.8
Kevin DurantSF3.4672.37.43.61.53.21.028.321.1
Dwight HowardC4.5980.012.91.91.53.02.120.218.0
Blake GriffinPF4.5600.110.03.70.92.40.521.117.2
LaMarcus AldridgePF3.4920.18.12.21.01.80.721.816.2
Carmelo AnthonySF4.4431.15.93.11.22.40.422.515.3
Josh SmithPF4.4810.49.43.71.52.31.617.515.0
Brook LopezC4.5140.06.92.30.71.91.418.514.6
Pau GasolPF4.5220.08.83.60.61.71.315.814.6
Al HorfordC4.5720.08.72.81.01.41.214.814.4
Chris BoshPF2.4910.18.52.10.91.90.718.214.3
Al JeffersonC3.4890.09.12.20.81.31.717.514.1
DeMarcus CousinsC3.4770.010.02.41.42.61.018.414.1
Marc GasolC2.5270.08.53.31.01.92.013.913.4
Paul MillsapPF3.5060.17.92.71.61.81.015.713.4
Greg MonroeC3.5310.09.22.01.52.00.615.313.4
David LeePF4.5090.08.92.91.12.20.416.613.2
Zach RandolphPF2.4790.110.52.21.01.70.315.713.0
Ryan AndersonPF4.4223.36.81.00.91.20.617.112.7
Danilo GallinariSF4.4191.94.42.21.01.40.616.412.6

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
</offer></offer>
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
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Messages
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Fantasy Forecaster: Nov. 19-25

By Neil Tardy | Special to ESPN.com

NBA teams go through training camp to get ready for the season. Then these teams (at least the good ones) go through the season with the idea of being at their best for the playoffs.

It's worth keeping this in mind as you read the Fantasy Forecaster, because we also strive to improve throughout the season. The ratings that we compile for teams' daily matchups and weekly schedules evolve over time. So naturally, as teams play more games and we collect more data, the ratings become more meaningful.

For the first three weeks of this season, the ratings data we used were based in part on stats from the 2011-12 NBA season. Last season, we thought that James Harden was a franchise cornerstone for the Oklahoma City Thunder and wondered whether the Charlotte Bobcats (break 'em up, they've won three straight!) were the worst team in NBA history. In short, things change. Using last year's data isn't a perfect solution, but neither is relying on a tiny sample size of current data.

But as we enter Week 4, the schedule ratings are now based entirely on data from this NBA season. It's still early, but it's getting better. And it will keep getting better.


[h=3]Week 4 at a glance[/h]

<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style>
<center> </center> Team <center> Mon
11/19 </center>
<center> Tue
11/20 </center>
<center> Wed
11/21 </center>
<center> Thu
11/22 </center>
<center> Fri
11/23 </center>
<center> Sat
11/24 </center>
<center> Sun
11/25 </center>
<center> </center>
atl.gif
Atlanta
Hawks
ORL
R: 4
OFF WSH
R: 4
OFF @CHA
R: 6
LAC
R: 4
OFF G: 4
H: 3
R: 7
bos.gif
Boston
Celtics
OFF OFF SA
R: 4
OFF OKC
R: 2
OFF @ORL
R: 5
G: 3
H: 2
R: 2
bkn.gif
Brooklyn
Nets
OFF @LAL
R: 3
@GS
R: 6
OFF LAC
R: 6
OFF POR
R: 9
G: 4
H: 2
R: 9
cha.gif
Charlotte
Bobcats
MIL
R: 5
OFF TOR
R: 8
OFF ATL
R: 6
@WSH
R: 6
OFF G: 4
H: 3
R: 10
chi.gif
Chicago
Bulls
OFF OFF @HOU
R: 7
OFF OFF @MIL
R: 6
OFF G: 2
H: 0
R: 1
cle.gif
Cleveland
Cavaliers
OFF OFF PHI
R: 4
OFF @ORL
R: 6
@MIA
R: 7
OFF G: 3
H: 1
R: 4
dal.gif
Dallas
Mavericks
GS
R: 7
OFF NY
R: 5
OFF OFF LAL
R: 5
OFF G: 3
H: 3
R: 4
den.gif
Denver
Nuggets
@MEM
R: 6
OFF @MIN
R: 4
OFF GS
R: 8
OFF NO
R: 6
G: 4
H: 2
R: 9
det.gif
Detroit
Pistons
OFF OFF @ORL
R: 3
OFF TOR
R: 5
OFF @NY
R: 1
G: 3
H: 1
R: 1
gsw.gif
Golden State
Warriors
@DAL
R: 5
OFF BKN
R: 3
OFF @DEN
R: 4
MIN
R: 1
OFF G: 4
H: 2
R: 5
hou.gif
Houston
Rockets
@UTA
R: 7
OFF CHI
R: 4
OFF NY
R: 3
OFF OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 3
ind.gif
Indiana
Pacers
@WSH
R: 3
OFF NO
R: 1
OFF SA
R: 3
OFF OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 1
lac.gif
Los Angeles
Clippers
@SA
R: 9
OFF @OKC
R: 7
OFF @BKN
R: 7
@ATL
R: 9
OFF G: 4
H: 0
R: 10
lal.gif
Los Angeles
Lakers
OFF BKN
R: 6
@SAC
R: 8
OFF @MEM
R: 6
@DAL
R: 8
OFF G: 4
H: 1
R: 10
mem.gif
Memphis
Grizzlies
DEN
R: 8
OFF OFF OFF LAL
R: 6
OFF OFF G: 2
H: 2
R: 1
mia.gif
Miami
Heat
OFF OFF MIL
R: 8
OFF OFF CLE
R: 10
OFF G: 2
H: 2
R: 3
mil.gif
Milwaukee
Bucks
@CHA
R: 10
OFF @MIA
R: 9
OFF OFF CHI
R: 5
OFF G: 3
H: 1
R: 6
min.gif
Minnesota
Timberwolves
OFF OFF DEN
R: 5
OFF @POR
R: 7
@GS
R: 5
OFF G: 3
H: 1
R: 5
nor.gif
New Orleans
Hornets
OFF NY
R: 1
@IND
R: 2
OFF @PHX
R: 6
OFF @DEN
R: 4
G: 4
H: 1
R: 5
nyk.gif
New York
Knicks
OFF @NO
R: 5
@DAL
R: 8
OFF @HOU
R: 7
OFF DET
R: 9
G: 4
H: 1
R: 10
okc.gif
Oklahoma City
Thunder
OFF OFF LAC
R: 8
OFF @BOS
R: 7
@PHI
R: 5
OFF G: 3
H: 1
R: 6
orl.gif
Orlando
Magic
@ATL
R: 1
OFF DET
R: 5
OFF CLE
R: 7
OFF BOS
R: 4
G: 4
H: 3
R: 7
phi.gif
Philadelphia
76ers
OFF TOR
R: 5
@CLE
R: 7
OFF OFF OKC
R: 1
@PHX
R: 5
G: 4
H: 2
R: 7
pho.gif
Phoenix
Suns
OFF OFF POR
R: 8
OFF NO
R: 5
OFF PHI
R: 5
G: 3
H: 3
R: 5
por.gif
Portland
Trail Blazers
OFF OFF @PHX
R: 8
OFF MIN
R: 3
OFF BKN
R: 4
G: 3
H: 2
R: 3
sac.gif
Sacramento
Kings
OFF OFF LAL
R: 1
OFF @UTA
R: 4
UTA
R: 4
OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 2
sas.gif
San Antonio
Spurs
LAC
R: 6
OFF @BOS
R: 7
OFF @IND
R: 4
OFF @TOR
R: 8
G: 4
H: 1
R: 9
tor.gif
Toronto
Raptors
OFF @PHI
R: 3
@CHA
R: 6
OFF @DET
R: 6
OFF SA
R: 5
G: 4
H: 1
R: 8
uth.gif
Utah
Jazz
HOU
R: 8
OFF OFF OFF SAC
R: 9
@SAC
R: 9
OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 7
was.gif
Washington
Wizards
IND
R: 1
OFF @ATL
R: 3
OFF OFF CHA
R: 5
OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 2

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
"R" matchup ratings are based on a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup) and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics; their opponents' numbers in those categories; and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the right lists the team's total number of games scheduled ("G") as well as home games ("H"), and lists the overall rating from 1 to 10 for that team's weekly schedule ("R").
<center> Ratings color scale </center>
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>



A complementary feature to the Fantasy Forecaster is the Weekly Schedule Grid. Fantasy owners -- particularly those in leagues where lineups are set weekly -- can use this tool to examine the schedule over the near term.

For instance, the grid shows that the Miami Heat play just twice in both Week 4 and Week 5. The Chicago Bulls and Memphis Grizzlies join the Heat as teams with just two games in Week 4. Every other team has three or four games in the week ahead.


[h=3]Players to watch[/h]
Bradley Beal, SG, Washington Wizards (IND, @ATL, CHA): Beal caught the attention of fantasy owners with a three-game run in which he averaged 18.3 points and 2.0 3-pointers per game. But in his past two games, Beal averaged only 8.0 points while shooting a cumulative 16.0 percent (4-of-25). Such is the life of most NBA rookies -- and Beal is a 19-year-old rookie at that. The point is it's tough to gauge such an inexperienced player by the schedule. Despite their recent success, the Bobcats are still a strong fantasy matchup. In fact, Bobcats opponents rank second in 3-pointers made, while Atlanta Hawks opponents rank 10th. So the schedule says go, and with his ability, the light should come on sooner than later. But night to night, don't assume anything with Beal.

Harrison Barnes, SF, Golden State Warriors (@DAL, BKN, @DEN, MIN): Barnes is coming off his best game: 19 points and 13 rebounds against the Hawks on Nov. 14. Is this the start of a breakout or is this a Beal-esque tease from the Warriors rookie? One thing to note with this set of opponents is that the Brooklyn Nets, Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves have been beasts on the boards. Nets, Nuggets and Wolves opponents are in the bottom six in rebound differential, with Nets and Wolves opponents in the bottom five in total rebounds.

Byron Mullens, PF/C, Charlotte Bobcats (MIL, TOR, ATL, @WSH): Mullens intrigued many fantasy owners, including yours truly, with his 3-point shooting in the preseason, but Bobcats coach Mike Dunlap appears to be more interested in having Mullens do traditional big-man stuff like defending the paint. That could actually work out well for fantasy owners. Since sinking six 3s against the Phoenix Suns on Nov. 7, Mullens is only 3-of-15 from downtown. However, on the early season, the 7-footer is averaging 9.0 rebounds (including 11.7 boards over his past three games) and 1.0 blocks (including 3.0 rejections in his past two outings). We don't need Mullens to be another Ryan Anderson, and his wretched 39.0 shooting suggests he's not capable of that anyway. But perhaps a double-double with 1.0 3s, steals and blocks to go along with (fingers crossed) 45 percent shooting is a possibility. Mullens is available in about 40 percent of ESPN.com leagues, and I'd pounce anywhere I could get him. This seems like a good week for Mullens to avoid the perimeter. Wizards opponents are (believe it or not) dead last in 3s, while Milwaukee Bucks opponents are 25th. Meanwhile, Toronto Raptors, Hawks and Wizards opponents are all in the top third in rebound differential.

Jason Kidd, PG/SG, New York Knicks (@NO, @DAL, @HOU, DET): I'll be closely following the Knicks over the next few months. Sure, they've gotten off to a great start, but they've also played a league-low six games. The Weekly Schedule Grid tells me that the Knicks have entered a stretch in which they'll play four times in five of six weeks. How will such a veteran team respond? How will 40-year-old Kidd respond? Time will tell, but for now, Kidd really seems to have taken to his backup role. Unbelievably, Kidd is shooting 58.6 percent from the field (and 55.0 percent from downtown) through his first six games. That can't last, can it? Even so, Kidd might make sense as an end-of-the-lineup option in leagues of at least 12 teams. Houston Rockets opponents are tops in steals, while Dallas Mavericks and Detroit Pistons opponents are fifth and sixth, respectively.

Jameer Nelson, PG, Orlando Magic (@ATL, DET, CLE, BOS): Nelson is expected to return to the lineup this weekend after missing six games with hamstring and groin injuries. His availability is up to 60 percent in ESPN.com leagues. Jammy's minutes could be limited early on, but his most favorable matchups could come at week's end. Cleveland Cavaliers opponents are tops in assists, while Boston Celtics opponents are sixth.

Jason Richardson, SG/SF, Philadelphia 76ers (TOR, @CLE, OKC, @PHX): J-Rich is also active again after spending some time on the sidelines. Surprisingly to me, Richardson is rostered in just 10 percent of ESPN.com leagues. Provided he can stay healthy, the 31-year-old will start for the Sixers and produce a decent number of 3s. Raptors and Suns opponents are currently sixth and seventh, respectively, in that regard.


<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style>[h=3]Opponent Performance, Past 10 games[/h]
<center> </center> Team <center> PPGA </center><center> FG%A </center><center> 3PT%A </center><center> RPG
diff. </center>
<center> SPGA </center><center> BPGA </center>
chi.gif
Chicago
Bulls
104.8 51.2% 32.5% 0.0 8.5 8.3
pho.gif
Phoenix
Suns
104.0 47.4% 44.1% -0.3 5.8 5.7
por.gif
Portland
Trail Blazers
100.9 49.4% 34.6% -0.6 8.9 4.6
tor.gif
Toronto
Raptors
100.6 45.2% 41.3% -4.0 7.1 7.5
mem.gif
Memphis
Grizzlies
100.2 44.5% 38.6% -2.6 7.1 4.3
bkn.gif
Brooklyn
Nets
99.9 43.9% 36.7% -3.7 6.4 8.3
uth.gif
Utah
Jazz
99.7 43.6% 35.3% 2.0 9.6 5.9
cle.gif
Cleveland
Cavaliers
99.3 43.8% 29.1% -3.9 9.0 4.4
den.gif
Denver
Nuggets
98.7 44.1% 34.8% -4.6 9.0 5.9
bos.gif
Boston
Celtics
98.6 44.6% 37.3% -5.7 7.8 4.9
sac.gif
Sacramento
Kings
98.6 43.2% 30.4% -6.1 6.8 7.9
det.gif
Detroit
Pistons
98.1 41.9% 30.4% 1.1 8.5 5.8
dal.gif
Dallas
Mavericks
98.0 42.7% 35.0% 9.4 8.7 7.6
gsw.gif
Golden State
Warriors
96.3 43.3% 37.2% 3.0 9.5 6.3
was.gif
Washington
Wizards
96.0 44.8% 34.9% -2.9 7.6 5.0
mia.gif
Miami
Heat
95.1 44.9% 33.3% 1.9 8.3 3.4
ind.gif
Indiana
Pacers
94.9 43.9% 36.6% 0.4 8.9 4.8
orl.gif
Orlando
Magic
94.3 44.2% 32.4% -2.6 7.3 6.6
sas.gif
San Antonio
Spurs
93.9 43.4% 34.7% -2.9 8.4 6.2
okc.gif
Oklahoma City
Thunder
93.7 41.8% 31.4% 2.8 8.3 2.7
atl.gif
Atlanta
Hawks
93.3 43.7% 30.8% -4.1 8.9 4.7
lac.gif
Los Angeles
Clippers
93.1 41.9% 33.5% 9.8 9.5 4.9
min.gif
Minnesota
Timberwolves
92.9 45.1% 34.5% 3.0 7.4 4.3
cha.gif
Charlotte
Bobcats
92.4 42.8% 32.1% 2.8 7.5 5.3
lal.gif
Los Angeles
Lakers
92.4 43.6% 37.5% 3.4 7.7 7.0
hou.gif
Houston
Rockets
91.1 41.1% 35.8% 5.6 9.2 6.0
phi.gif
Philadelphia
76ers
91.1 44.2% 36.5% -2.1 7.5 5.6
nor.gif
New Orleans
Hornets
90.5 42.6% 29.2% 0.3 7.0 7.0
nyk.gif
New York
Knicks
89.8 42.6% 33.8% -6.3 5.0 4.0
mil.gif
Milwaukee
Bucks
88.5 41.4% 35.6% 5.3 7.5 5.6

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
All statistics are for teams' past 10 games played, and are defensive numbers. PPGA: Points per game allowed. FG%A: Field goal percentage allowed. 3PT%A: Three-point percentage allowed. RPG diff.: Rebounds per game differential. SPGA: Steals per game allowed. BPGA: Blocks per game allowed.

 

hacheman@therx.com
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Messages
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Faried, Walker off to hot starts

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com

In an effort to stay patient and avoid the mass panic that typically ensues early in the season, I am often reluctant to make any big changes to my preseason rankings during the first few of weeks of action. But now that we are getting a little deeper into the season and starting to pick up on some developing trends, it's time to start making some major changes based on what we've seen so far.

[h=3]The Top 130[/h]Note: Brian McKitish's top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2012-13 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses.1. Kevin Durant, OKC (1)
2. LeBron James, MIA (2)
3. Chris Paul, LAC (3)
4. Russell Westbrook, OKC (4)
5. Deron Williams, BKN (5)
6. James Harden, HOU (7)
7. Kyrie Irving, CLE (8)
8. Dwyane Wade, MIA (6)
9. Serge Ibaka, OKC (10)
10. Kobe Bryant, LAL (11)
11. Nicolas Batum, POR (19)
12. Josh Smith, ATL (9)
13. Al Jefferson, UTAH (12)
14. Kevin Love, MIN (14)
15. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR (13)
16. Marc Gasol, MEM (17)
17. Carmelo Anthony, NY (18)
18. Jrue Holiday, PHI (27)
19. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (15)
20. Dwight Howard, LAL (21)
21. Rajon Rondo, BOS (22)
22. Brandon Jennings, MIL (28)
23. Goran Dragic, PHO (23)
24. Anthony Davis, NO (25)
25. Stephen Curry, GS (35)
26. Ty Lawson, DEN (16)
27. Pau Gasol, LAL (20)
28. Rudy Gay, MEM (26)
29. Al Horford, ATL (24)
30. Greg Monroe, DET (31)
31. Damian Lillard, POR (42)
32. Monta Ellis, MIL (30)
33. Zach Randolph, MEM (48)
34. Paul Millsap, UTAH (32)
35. Marcin Gortat, PHO (29)
36. Paul Pierce, BOS (34)
37. Kenneth Faried, DEN (43)
38. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (33)
39. Kyle Lowry, TOR (39)
40. Joakim Noah, CHI (38)
41. Andre Iguodala, DEN (37)
42. Paul George, IND (36)
43. Mike Conley, MEM (40)
44. Blake Griffin, LAC (41)
45. Steve Nash, LAL (52)
46. Kemba Walker, CHA (84)
47. Brook Lopez, BKN (51)
48. David Lee, GS (45)
49. Chris Bosh, MIA (47)
50. Wesley Matthews, POR (44)
51. Roy Hibbert, IND (46)
52. Joe Johnson, BKN (53)
53. Ryan Anderson, NO (57)
54. O.J. Mayo, DAL (59)
55. J.R. Smith, NY (79)
56. Andrei Kirilenko, MIN (82)
57. Luol Deng, CHI (62)
58. Kevin Garnett, BOS (58)
59. Jeremy Lin, HOU (55)
60. Anderson Varejao, CLE (68)
61. Raymond Felton, NY (63)
62. Tony Parker, SA (56)
63. John Wall, WSH (54)
64. Kevin Martin, OKC (71)
65. Klay Thompson, GS (61)
66. Tim Duncan, SA (81)
67. Omer Asik, HOU (89)
68. Andrea Bargnani, TOR (64)
69. Gerald Wallace, BKN (69)
70. Mo Williams, UTAH (77)
71. Danilo Gallinari, DEN (65)
72. Jeff Teague, ATL (70)
73. Marcus Thornton, SAC (60)
74. Nikola Pekovic, MIN (72)
75. Andrew Bynum, PHI (49)
76. Tyson Chandler, NY (66)
77. DeAndre Jordan, LAC (73)
78. JaVale McGee, DEN (74)
79. Dion Waiters, CLE (97)
80. Arron Afflalo, ORL (75)
81. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, CHA (83)
82. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (50)
83. Brandon Knight, DET (88)
84. George Hill, IND (78)
85. Carlos Boozer, CHI (90)
86. Tyreke Evans, SAC (67)
87. Darren Collison, DAL (91)
88. Lou Williams, ATL (92)
89. Kris Humphries, BKN (86)
90. Derrick Favors, UTAH (110)
91. Jamal Crawford, LAC (108)
92. Glen Davis, ORL (92.5)
93. Manu Ginobili, SA (95)
94. Amare Stoudemire, NY (93)
95. DeMar DeRozan, TOR (105)
96. Thaddeus Young, PHI (94)
97. Gordon Hayward, UTAH (76)
98. Greivis Vasquez, NO (112)
99. Jameer Nelson, ORL (115)
100. J.J. Hickson, POR (109)
101. Luis Scola, PHO (102)
102. Daniel Green, SA (121)
103. Byron Mullens, CHA (104)
104. Jason Richardson, PHI (NR)
105. Ray Allen, MIA (96)
106. Chris Kaman, DAL (107)
107. Evan Turner, PHI (100)
108. Rodney Stuckey, DET (120)
109. Kawhi Leonard, SA (85)
110. Jason Terry, BOS (101)
111. David West, IND (103)
112. J.J. Redick, ORL (116)
113. Al-Farouq Aminu, NO (114)
114. Isaiah Thomas, SAC (87)
115. Luke Ridnour, MIN (124)
116. Nikola Vucevic, ORL (126)
117. Michael Beasley, PHO (113)
118. Jose Calderon, TOR (NR)
119. Kyle Korver, ATL (NR)
120. Ramon Sessions, CHA (119)
121. Carl Landry, GSW (122)
122. Harrison Barnes, GS (NR)
123. Ricky Rubio, MIN (123)
124. Tristan Thompson, CLE (125)
125. Shannon Brown, PHO (NR)
126. Mario Chalmers, MIA (118)
127. Derrick Rose, CHI (127)
128. Dorell Wright, PHI (111)
129. Jordan Crawford, WSH (NR)
130. Chandler Parsons, HOU (NR)


[h=3]Here to stay[/h]
Aside from his dismal 52.3 percent shooting from the free throw line, Kenneth Faried has been nothing short of spectacular 10 games into his sophomore campaign. Averaging 14.1 points, 11.1 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 0.9 blocks while shooting 54.7 percent from the floor in 30.0 minutes a game, the "Manimal" has been even better than advertised to start the season. Most impressive has been his league-high 5.6 offensive rebounds per game, which is a testament to his incredible motor. I've said it before, but it's worth mentioning again: Opposing players simply can't match Faried's quickness, energy and effort on both ends of the court.

I'm absolutely a believer in Kemba Walker's early season onslaught of 18.8 points, 5.5 assists and 2.5 steals per game. Sure, he likely will have some inconsistent moments from time to time, but the diminutive guard has been all over the court for the much-improved Bobcats. Super quick and more aggressive this season, Walker has been getting into the lane at will, where he's averaging 6.6 shot attempts at the rim. This stat is incredibly encouraging given that Walker's struggles from the floor as a rookie were largely the result of his propensity to settle for jump shots.

I moved Anthony Davis up from 40th to 25th in my top-130 rankings last week without much explanation, but the jump was based on a few factors. First, he's been as good as advertised on the defensive end, posting 8.3 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 2.2 blocks per game. Though we knew he would be a defensive asset, we didn't know that Davis would be so effective (and efficient) on the offensive end. Scoring 16.0 points per game while shooting 49.3 percent from the floor and 83.9 percent from the line, Davis is already a fine-tuned fantasy machine.

We spoke about Nicolas Batum, Jrue Holiday, Zach Randolph and Omer Asik last week, but it's worth repeating that all four continue to move up the ranks as they further cement their status as breakout players.

[h=3]Cause for optimism[/h]
Andrei Kirilenko has benefited from myriad injuries on the roster in Minnesota, but that doesn't change the fact that he looks absolutely terrific. Kirilenko has picked up right where he left off after a strong showing during the London Olympics, posting 14.1 points, 8.3 boards, 3.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 2.2 blocks and 0.9 3-pointers per game. Sort of reminds you when AK47 first burst on the fantasy scene, doesn't it? Will Kirilenko be able to keep this pace once the Wolves are back to full strength? Probably not, but he's still going to be ultra-productive for as long as he can stay healthy.

I really like what I've seen out of Cleveland rookie Dion Waiters, even after he finished Sunday night's game with just five points on 2-of-13 shooting. After watching almost every game of his short career at Syracuse University, I can't say that I'm surprised that his skills are translating to the professional level. He's got a complete arsenal of moves at his disposal on the offensive end, and he's an opportunistic player with good instincts on the defensive side. Although he'll be inconsistent at times, Waiters should continue to be a solid option for points (13.7), steals (1.1) and 3-pointers (2.0).

He's not quite playing 30 minutes per game, but Derrick Favors has found his way onto the court for 24.5 minutes per contest where he's posted 9.5 points, 7.7 boards, 1.1 steals and 2.2 blocks per game. Of course, Favors still has Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson blocking his path to stardom, but his owners have to be optimistic about his play thus far. I'm not sure if the one-game experiment with him as a starter is going to stick, but one of these days he's going to be getting a consistent 30 minutes per game -- and trust me, you'll want him on your fantasy team when that happens.

[h=3]Continued struggles[/h]
We've been through these stretches with Roy Hibbert in the past, so I'm not terribly worried about his poor play, especially when we consider that he's been decent on the defensive side with 8.0 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game. His struggles on the offensive end (8.5 points per game) can be blamed on poor shooting: 37.2 percent from the floor and 45.5 percent from the line. Because these numbers are well below his career averages, Hibbert looks to be a strong buy-low candidate at this point in the season.

I don't quite know what to make of Ersan Ilyasova's poor start just yet, except to say that there's no way I'd drop him after just eight games. Remember, this is the same guy who averaged 16.1 points, 9.1 boards, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.1 3-pointers per game in the second half of last season. So while he's clearly struggling, I'm just not ready to give up on a player who was so productive last season. Ilyasova's struggles can largely be blamed on poor shooting: 31.0 percent from the floor, 42.9 percent from the line and 27.8 percent from 3-point range. Of course, it doesn't help that he's been losing minutes as a result. Once he gains back some of his confidence -- and his shots start falling -- his minutes and production should round back into shape.

Isaiah Thomas has been almost as disappointing as Ilyasova, averaging just 9.7 points, 2.1 assists, 0.6 steals and 1.4 3-pointers in 22.3 minutes per game. Aside from the lack of minutes, the most alarming stat here is the lack of assists after he posted 4.1 per game a season ago. The Kings seem to be standing around a lot on the offensive side, playing one-on-one basketball, as evidenced by their 17.8 assists per game as a team. Given his talent and potential, I'm holding onto Thomas for a few more weeks, but I certainly understand if frustrated owners are giving up on him at this point.

Jonas Valanciunas has shown flashes of brilliance, but like many young big men, he's been plagued by foul trouble early and often. Averaging 3.3 fouls in just 19.8 minutes per game, Valanciunas will need to learn how to stay out of foul trouble if he's going to have fantasy value this season. The good news is that he's looked promising when on the court, averaging 7.8 points, 4.9 boards and 0.6 blocks per game despite the limited minutes.
 

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Lillard becoming elite point guard

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com

Things can change quickly in the fantasy world, and even just one week of action can force quite a bit of reshuffling in the top-130 rankings. This is particularly true when we get down to some of the players ranked after the top 100. Players ranked that low are typically inconsistent, streaky or unproven. That is why you'll see a lot of fluctuation from week to week near the bottom of the rankings. With that in mind, let's take a look at some of the big movers in this week's rankings update.


[h=3]The Top 130[/h]Note: Brian McKitish's top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2012-13 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses.1. Kevin Durant, OKC (1)
2. LeBron James, MIA (2)
3. Kevin Love, MIN (14)
4. Chris Paul, LAC (3)
5. Russell Westbrook, OKC (4)
6. James Harden, HOU (6)
7. Deron Williams, BKN (5)
8. Serge Ibaka, OKC (9)
9. Kobe Bryant, LAL (10)
10. Nicolas Batum, POR (11)
11. Dwyane Wade, MIA (8)
12. Josh Smith, ATL (12)
13. Carmelo Anthony, NY (17)
14. Kyle Lowry, TOR (39)
15. Al Jefferson, UTAH (13)
16. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR (15)
17. Marc Gasol, MEM (16)
18. Jrue Holiday, PHI (18)
19. Rajon Rondo, BOS (21)
20. Damian Lillard, POR (31)
21. Brandon Jennings, MIL (22)
22. Goran Dragic, PHO (23)
23. Dwight Howard, LAL (20)
24. Rudy Gay, MEM (28)
25. Stephen Curry, GS (25)
26. Greg Monroe, DET (30)
27. Ty Lawson, DEN (26)
28. Al Horford, ATL (29)
29. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (19)
30. Monta Ellis, MIL (32)
31. Zach Randolph, MEM (33)
32. Paul Pierce, BOS (36)
33. Anthony Davis, NO (24)
34. Joakim Noah, CHI (40)
35. Pau Gasol, LAL (27)
36. Mike Conley, MEM (43)
37. Kenneth Faried, DEN (37)
38. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (38)
39. Brook Lopez, BKN (47)
40. Paul George, IND (42)
41. Kemba Walker, CHA (46)
42. Chris Bosh, MIA (49)
43. Paul Millsap, UTAH (34)
44. Andre Iguodala, DEN (41)
45. Blake Griffin, LAC (44)
46. Steve Nash, LAL (45)
47. David Lee, GS (48)
48. Wesley Matthews, POR (50)
49. Roy Hibbert, IND (51)
50. Ryan Anderson, NO (53)
51. O.J. Mayo, DAL (54)
52. Marcin Gortat, PHO (35)
53. Kyrie Irving, CLE (7)
54. Raymond Felton, NY (61)
55. Joe Johnson, BKN (52)
56. J.R. Smith, NY (55)
57. Andrei Kirilenko, MIN (56)
58. Anderson Varejao, CLE (60)
59. Tim Duncan, SA (66)
60. Tony Parker, SA (62)
61. Luol Deng, CHI (57)
62. Kevin Garnett, BOS (58)
63. John Wall, WSH (63)
64. Kevin Martin, OKC (64)
65. Danilo Gallinari, DEN (71)
66. Omer Asik, HOU (67)
67. Andrea Bargnani, TOR (68)
68. Klay Thompson, GS (65)
69. Jeff Teague, ATL (72)
70. Marcus Thornton, SAC (73)
71. Nikola Pekovic, MIN (74)
72. Jeremy Lin, HOU (59)
73. Dion Waiters, CLE (79)
74. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, CHA (81)
75. Carlos Boozer, CHI (85)
76. DeAndre Jordan, LAC (77)
77. Mo Williams, UTAH (70)
78. JaVale McGee, DEN (78)
79. Tyreke Evans, SAC (86)
80. Arron Afflalo, ORL (80)
81. Tyson Chandler, NY (76)
82. Jamal Crawford, LAC (91)
83. Brandon Knight, DET (83)
84. Jameer Nelson, ORL (99)
85. Nene Hilario, WSH (NR)
86. Manu Ginobili, SA (93)
87. Jason Richardson, PHI (104)
88. George Hill, IND (84)
89. Gerald Wallace, BKN (69)
90. Glen Davis, ORL (92)
91. Byron Mullens, CHA (103)
92. Amare Stoudemire, NY (94)
93. Lou Williams, ATL (88)
94. Derrick Favors, UTAH (90)
95. Thaddeus Young, PHI (96)
96. Greivis Vasquez, NO (98)
97. Darren Collison, DAL (87)
98. J.J. Hickson, POR (100)
99. Ricky Rubio, MIN (123)
100. Evan Turner, PHI (107)
101. Andrew Bynum, PHI (75)
102. DeMar DeRozan, TOR (95)
103. David West, IND (111)
104. Chris Kaman, DAL (106)
105. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (82)
106. Kris Humphries, BKN (89)
107. Ramon Sessions, CHA (120)
108. Gordon Hayward, UTAH (97)
109. Jason Terry, BOS (110)
110. Chandler Parsons, HOU (130)
111. Ray Allen, MIA (105)
112. Kawhi Leonard, SA (109)
113. Rodney Stuckey, DET (108)
114. Luis Scola, PHO (101)
115. Daniel Green, SA (102)
116. J.J. Redick, ORL (112)
117. Kyle Korver, ATL (119)
118. Al-Farouq Aminu, NO (113)
119. Nikola Vucevic, ORL (116)
120. Luke Ridnour, MIN (115)
121. Harrison Barnes, GS (122)
122. Markieff Morris, PHO (NR)
123. Jose Calderon, TOR (118)
124. Mario Chalmers, MIA (126)
125. Jonas Valanciunas, TOR (NR)
126. Derrick Rose, CHI (127)
127. Metta World Peace, LAL (NR)
128. Patrick Patterson, HOU (NR)
129. Jason Kidd, NY (NR)
130. Tristan Thompson, CLE (124)



[h=3]Moving Up[/h]

Blazers rookie Damian Lillard continues to rocket up the rankings, posting 19.6 points, 6.1 assists, 1.4 steals and 2.5 3-pointers per game while shooting 46.4 percent from the floor and 82.4 percent from the line in his first 13 games as a pro. I loved Lillard coming into the season, but even I didn't think he'd be this dominant (and efficient) so early as an NBA player. I know it's a small sample size, but it's already quite obvious that Lillard is a special player, particularly on the offensive end. Let's go ahead and add him to the growing list of elite fantasy point guards.

Brook Lopez still can't rebound, but how many of his owners are complaining about that when he's averaging 19.0 points, 6.2 boards and 2.5 blocks per game? The Nets might be 8-4 on the season, but they are still in the process of finding their identity offensively. Up until now, it has been the Deron Williams and Brook Lopez show in the scoring department. I'm expecting Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace to get more involved offensively, but Lopez should settle in as a 17-18 points-per-game scorer with plenty of blocks, which makes him a borderline top-40 play despite the poor rebounding efforts.

Raymond Felton isn't quite as valuable as he was during his stint under Mike D'Antoni, but it's close enough. With 15.7 points, 7.3 assists, 1.2 steals and 2.0 3-pointers per game after 13 contests, it looks like Felton has put his disastrous 2011-12 season completely behind him. He'll remain a top-60 fantasy player thanks to his ability to contribute across the board in points, assists, steals and 3-pointers.

Good players on bad teams typically pile up stats, and now that Jameer Nelson is back from a groin injury, I fully expect him to do plenty of work for the offensively challenged Magic. Nelson has averaged 13.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.4 steals and 2.2 3-pointers over his past five games despite being limited by the flu bug, so don't be surprised if he continues to produce at a high level for the foreseeable future.

What a difference a week makes for Wizards big man Nene, who went from "out indefinitely" to posting 19 points with 5 boards and 2 steals in 29 minutes against the Bobcats on Saturday. Nene, like Jameer Nelson, is in the fortunate position of being an accomplished player on a team that is void of offensive options. He should put up some nice numbers in points, boards and steals as long as he can stay healthy.

A few minor ankle injuries haven't stopped Jason Richardson from emerging as the top shooting guard option in Philadelphia. Averaging 16.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.8 steals and a ridiculous 3.2 3-pointers per game over his past five contests, J-Rich is a must-own player at the moment. I don't think he'll continue this torrid pace, but he'll certainly be valuable as a scorer, 3-point shooter and steal artist.

Despite some inconsistent shooting, Byron Mullens has posted 17.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 1.6 3-pointers over his past five contests. We've seen some promising play from Mullens during stretches last season, so his play to date is certainly promising. That said, I'm still not entirely sold he'll be able to keep up this pace all season long, especially when his offensive repertoire consists mostly of jump shots from long range. Let's put it this way: He's going to be incredibly fun to own when he's on, but extremely frustrating when he's cold.


[h=3]Moving Down[/h]

Sacramento has been a wasteland for fantasy value, and although DeMarcus Cousins hasn't been a complete disaster, he certainly hasn't lived up to his lofty billing so far this season. Averaging 16.1 points, 9.6 boards, 1.5 steals and 0.7 blocks while shooting 43.5 percent from the floor and 66.7 percent from the line, Cousins simply hasn't progressed or matured the way we hoped he would after a brilliant finish to last season. Don't get me wrong, Cousins still has plenty of value and upside; he's just not the top-20 player I thought he would be coming into the season.

It is officially time to start worrying about Pau Gasol in Los Angeles. I know they're still without Steve Nash, and they're still adjusting to Mike D'Antoni's system, but Gasol is averaging just 12.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 0.8 blocks over his past five games, and now we find out that he's been dealing with knee tendinitis since the preseason. He almost has to get better from here, but let's keep a close eye on both his health and role under Mike D'Antoni over the next few weeks.

After a strong start to the season, Marcin Gortat has struggled mightily, with just 11.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 0.8 blocks over his past five contests. Although Gortat has been losing minutes and voicing his frustrations over his role in the Suns' frontcourt, I'm still recommending him as a solid buy-low candidate. He's far and away the Suns' best option in the paint, so I expect his lack of minutes to be temporary. As you can tell from his rank (52nd overall), I still consider him a top 60 option despite the poor play of late.

Jeremy Lin might be averaging a solid 6.1 assists and 1.8 steals per game, but he's also shooting just 34.8 percent from the floor and 24.3 percent from downtown on the year. Lin's shooting slump is particularly concerning to those who questioned his efficiency and scoring ability prior to the season. With little depth behind him at the point, Lin should be able to shoot his way out of this slump at some point, but his owners should be prepared to deal with a field-goal percentage in the 39-41 percent range for much of the season.

As mentioned earlier, the Nets are still in the process of finding their way on the offensive end despite their solid record. Joe Johnson, Gerald Wallace and Kris Humphries have been major disappointments to date, and I expect this trend to continue for at least a few more weeks as the team begins to gel offensively. Of the trio, I'm most concerned about Humphries, given the Nets' depth and his relatively light workload to date.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Joined
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Messages
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[h=1]Jeremy Lin's lost jumper[/h][h=3]Bledsoe's scoring, Hickson's cleaning the glass among other emerging trends[/h]By Joe Kaiser | ESPN Insider

Editor's Note: This is Insider's weekly series that identifies and analyzes tendencies or trends exhibited by five players.
Things change fast in this league, and depending on the team and situation, some trends can mean the difference between a spot in the starting five and a DNP-CD.
nba_trendwatch_134.png

Just look at the Minnesota Timberwolves' Derrick Williams, a player whose struggles we touched on last week; once Kevin Love made his season debut against the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday, Williams appeared in only one of the Timberwolves' next three games for a grand total of 11 minutes.
Sure, a demotion was inevitable upon Love's return, but had the former No. 2 overall pick been playing better, it would have likely been impossible to keep him off the court. As it stands now, we have to wonder how much of a role Williams will have going forward.

This week, we take a look at five other players who are trending in different directions:
<offer></offer>

[h=3]Jeremy Lin | PG | Houston Rockets[/h]
Trend: Missing shots he used to make

Lin's game is one that has been analyzed as much as anyone's in the NBA over the last 12 months, as he continues to be one of the most fascinating players in the league today.
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<center>Lin</center>
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Though Lin helped his new team blow by his old team on Friday as Houston blew out New York 131-103, he clearly isn't the same offensive threat that he was when Linsanity peaked last February.

Omar Shaik of HoopData.com wrote on Friday that one of the biggest reasons for this is the sudden disappearance of Lin's jump shot:

"Last season, Lin ranked in the NBA's top seven among point guards in field goal percentage from 10 to 15 feet and 16 to 23 feet. He was more accurate from these distances than many household names, such as Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Tony Parker, Derrick Rose, and Russell Westbrook. He demonstrated a jump shot that deserved to be respected, and teams adjusted accordingly."

Through the Rockets' first 12 games this season, Lin is shooting 16.7 percent from shots in the 10- to 15-foot range, and 29.4 percent on attempts from the 16- to 23-foot range. Those numbers are, to put it mildly, not good. Most worrisome, defenses will adjust and limit Lin's ability to penetrate as they back off, knowing his shooting is so suspect.

It probably won't be until Lin plays another season or two until we can safely say whether the real Lin is closer to the guy we saw last season with the Knicks or the one who's struggling to find the net this season with the Rockets. But you can bet that won't stop the conversation on the topic between now and then.

[h=3]Goran Dragic | PG | Phoenix Suns[/h]
Trend: Taking better care of the basketball

Phoenix moved quickly to ink Dragic to a four-year, $34 million deal just hours after agreeing to send Steve Nash to Los Angeles in a July 5 sign-and-trade deal with the Los Angeles Lakers.
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<center>Dragic</center>
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Replacing a legend like Nash couldn't be an easy situation for anyone to step into, let alone Dragic, a former Sun who played behind the Canadian point guard for two-and-a-half seasons before being dealt to Houston. But so far, the 26-year-old Slovenian is proving to be one of the biggest bright spots on a Suns team that -- admittedly or not -- is in rebuilding mode.

Playing a career-high 33.3 minutes a game in his first season back with the Suns, Dragic is on track to shatter his career bests in all of the major categories. But the most impressive part of Dragic's game so far this season is the way he's taking better care of the basketball. Dragic's 2.2 turnovers per game are less than the 2.4 he averaged while playing nearly seven fewer minutes a game with Houston last season. And his current 3.43 assist-to-turnover rate shatters his previous career high of 2.24, set last season.

[h=3]Eric Bledsoe | PG | Los Angeles Clippers[/h]
Trend: Finding his shot

Bledsoe is starting to generate buzz in this third season in the league, even while playing behind Chris Paul and getting just 18.8 minutes a game. His 23.07 PER ranks No. 14 (Paul is No. 10), and Bledsoe is clearly evolving and becoming more than just an athletic blur in the Clippers' backcourt.
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<center>Bledsoe</center>
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What stands out this season is the way Bledsoe is taking it upon himself to be more of a scorer. After averaging 11.8 and 11.4 points per 40 minutes in his first two years in the league, respectively, that number is way up this season (21.8).

The 6-foot-1 spark plug is attempting nearly five more shots a game than he did last season and shooting much more efficiently (50.5 percent) than he did in 2011-12 (38.9 percent). How's he doing it? According to HoopData.com, he's taking a higher percentage of his shots both at the rim and in the 3-to-9 foot range, relying less on the 3-pointer, and draining long 2s at a much high rate (38 percent) than last season when he shot just 25 percent on attempts from the 16- to 23-foot range.

[h=3]J.J. Hickson | PF | Portland Trail Blazers[/h]
Trend: Rebounds on the rise

Hickson might have his fair share of deficiencies on the court -- our own John Hollinger points out several of them in his scouting report of the versatile 6-foot-9 big man -- but rebounding has always been a strength for the NC State product.
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<center>Hickson</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->Thrust into the role of starting center in Portland this season after re-upping with the Trail Blazers on a one-year deal over the summer, Hickson is living up to his $4 million salary so far by taking his rebounding to a new level, even as he's undersized at the 5.

You might be surprised to know that Hickson is currently No. 4 in the league in rebounds per 48 minutes among regulars (18.0), trailing only Reggie Evans (19.8), Anderson Varejao (19.8) and Kevin Love (19.4). That puts Hickson ahead of guys with a reputation of being monsters on the glass like Kenneth Faried, Kris Humphries and Omer Asik, just to name a few. Hickson is also one of just 11 big men averaging a double-double (10.6 ppg, 10.8 rpg).

[h=3]Ersan Ilyasova | PF | Milwaukee Bucks[/h]
Trend: Big Buck hunting for his shot

When Milwaukee emerged as the winner of the Ilyasova sweepstakes over the summer, agreeing to a five-year, $40 million deal with $31.6 million guaranteed, the thinking was that the Bucks had just secured a nice future with one of the game's most versatile up-and-coming forwards. I mean, this guy put up 13 points and 8.8 rebounds a game as a 24-year-old last season and did so while also shooting 45.5 percent from 3-point range.
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<center>Illyasova</center>
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But less than a month into the first season of that lucrative new contract, one has to wonder if the Bucks could already be second-guessing the signing. Ilyasova's shooting is the big concern; the 6-foot-10 Turkish forward is ice-cold from all areas on the court right now.


After shooting 49.2 percent from the field last season, he's at 31.9 percent this year. He's also under 23 percent from 3-point distance, and amazingly just under 43 percent from the free throw line (where he's a 77.6 percent career shooter). According to HoopData.com, part of the problem is that Ilyasova is taking fewer shots at the rim this season, and also shooting much poorer from shots beyond 15 feet.

The inefficiency is already costing Ilyasova minutes to the Bucks' many other promising young bigs on the roster (Tobias Harris, Larry Sanders, Ekpe Udoh and John Henson) and we have to believe that will continue to be the case as long as he struggles with his stroke.
 

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Young point guards starring early

By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

I'm sort of obsessed with point guards.

It started at the dawn of the millennium with my first fantasy team, when my three-headed point guard monster of Stephon Marbury, Jamaal Tinsley and Jason Williams won my first fantasy title (for you young people, those were three top-10 point guards in the standard definition era).

Elite point guard play needs to be at the center of your construction of a successful fantasy team. You need to be starting as many point guards and as few shooting guards as your league's rules will allow.

It's not rocket science. Point guards dominate the assists category. You're better off overcrowding your backcourt and utility slots with floor generals who can distribute, nail 3s and grab steals than with shooting guards who tend to be bent on "getting theirs."

This year's group of point guards features one overall characteristic: young upside.

There is a bumper crop of outstanding rising point guards with three or fewer years of NBA experience. There's so much young upside available that I've been forced to alter my view of the player pool.

I noticed it in the preseason when I began to make my pre-draft tiers, grouping players via their projected value. As always, I expected to push The Big 3 -- Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, and Deron Williams -- toward the top and then slot the other point guards accordingly.

But it was impossible not to notice that The Big 3 were about to have some company.

There were already several players still on their rookie contracts who were -- when healthy -- top-10 point guards: Kyrie Irving, Brandon Jennings, Stephen Curry, John Wall, Mike Conley, Ty Lawson and Ricky Rubio. (Not to mention Jeff Teague, who established some sneaky high-end value last season.)

These players had already flashed elite or near-elite value. Then due to offseason player movement and the draft … another group of rookie contract point guards landed on the fantasy radar. (Now you know how Andre Miller must feel: he's still a world-class distributor, but these young guns are everywhere.)

In my drafts this year, instead of going for a Paul or Williams in the first round, I waited until the fourth or fifth round to take my first point guard (usually Damian Lillard). Then I would promptly overstock at the position, taking four or five point guards by the 10th round.

My reasoning was that I could expect two or three of them (Lillard, Jrue Holiday, Goran Dragic) to break out. Accordingly, I could instead spend my high picks on shallower positions (shooting guard, center), and then go for volume at the 1. And so far that strategy has worked … to a great extent.

To help you stay on top of the market, here's a look at 10 point guards with less than three years of NBA experience who have been shaking things up this season.

(I'm including their current Player Rater ranking among point guards along with where they finished last season.)

Jrue Holiday, Philadelphia 76ers (Current: 3rd, 2011-12: 15th): This is all with an average draft position of 54. Did you see what Holiday did to the Phoenix Suns on Sunday? Thirty-three points, 13 assists, 13-of-21 from the floor. Holiday has posted the largest (non-injury-related) jump in value this season, and we have to thank … Andrew Bynum?

Dealing Andre Iguodala to the Denver Nuggets meant that the direction of Doug Collins' offense was being solely entrusted to Holliday. Then Bynum went bowling and the 76ers needed scoring and floor leadership. Enter Holiday.

What I especially love is the across-the-board value. Holiday gives you everything without hurting you in a single area. His field goal percentage has taken a small hit (and his 3-point shooting has dipped from 41 to 38 percent), but the volume stats have spiked in a way that more than makes up for it.

The player he's reminding most of now? The Utah Jazz-era Deron Williams. (And that was prime Deron Williams).

Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers (Current: 4th, 2011-12: N/A): His average draft position was just 77.4. I've been gushing about Lillard for so long now -- since draft night -- that I think it's beginning to affect my marriage. It hurts me to type this, but I think Lillard's due for a slight leveling off in production. I've already said to expect Kyrie Irving rookie year stats with Lillard. So far, he's posting Irving Year 2 numbers.

There just has to be some first-year inconsistency thrown in the mix at some point, right? (He did shoot 4-for-18 Monday night.)

Goran Dragic, Phoenix Suns (Current: 7th, 2011-12: 13th): This is a guy shooting a Nashian 47 percent from the field while canning 1.6 3-pointers per night. Almost half his attempts (4.5 out of 11.7) per game are from downtown. And yes, while he's averaging career highs across the board, anyone who followed him in Houston knew this potential was there. But it's the improvement in efficiency and volume that impresses me most.

Kemba Walker, Charlotte Bobcats (Current: 14th, 2011-12: 37th): His average draft position was 92.3. I've written before that Walker has the potential to be a poor man's Baron Davis: production you can count on as long as you're willing to absorb the hit to your field goal percentage. But Walker has upped his shooting from the field overall (37 to 40 percent) this year, even in the face of his 3-point shooting's falling off a fiscal cliff (29 to 19 percent). It shows he's getting more disciplined. The assists and steals are way up, and the 3s will start falling eventually. Bonus value: Walker qualifies at shooting guard.

Darren Collison, Dallas Mavericks (Current: 17th, 2011-12: 34th): I was expecting about 10 percent more production across the board. Collison's averages for the season have been solid (12.9 PPG, 6.3 APG, 1.2 SPG), but Collison has yet to find any semblance of real consistency. If it looks like Dallas is headed for the lottery, Collision may have to fend off a time-share with Roddy Beaubois at some point this season. He needs to turn it up a little.

George Hill, Indiana Pacers (Current: 19th, 2011-12: 45th): While he's outperformed his ADP of 99.4, he's still somewhat of a disappointment. He's still getting it done in multiple categories, but Hill's 3-point shooting has been Kemba-esque (27 percent, 10 points below his career average).

With Indiana's offense sputtering and D.J. Augustin in the fold, some lineup shake-ups could be coming (like Hill at the 2). But if you've watched Indiana this year, you know their offensive issues are deeper than Hill. I think he turns it around as the Pacers' point guard.

Eric Bledsoe, Los Angeles Clippers (Current: 25th, 2011-12: 75th): He's averaging 19 minutes a night. He's also a top-25 fantasy point guard. Bledsoe's problem this season is that those minutes will stay locked in; Chauncey Billups will be back soon and oh, he's already backing up Chris Paul. But Bledsoe is oozing with the kind of upside that will blossom given 30 minutes a night. You have to think he'll be dealt as soon as Chris Paul re-ups.

Brandon Knight, Detroit Pistons (Current: 27th, 2011-12: 28th): He went for 26 points and six assists Monday night. If you've been sleeping on Knight, it's almost too late to pick him up cheap. Ultimately, he might be more of a scorer than distributor, but the overall trend here is that Knight is on the rise.

Greivis Vasquez, New Orleans Hornets (Current: 28th, 2011-12: 29th): A classic case of what low expectations, a steady diet of minutes and solid surrounding veteran play can do for a young point guard. Eric Gordon's injury opened up a big opportunity in the Hornets' backcourt. Austin Rivers hasn't shot the ball well, while Vasquez is showing he's elite in assists. Think of a healthier Jose Calderon, with no competition at the position.

E'Twaun Moore, Orlando Magic (Current: 36th, 2011-12: N/A): Moore has understandably tailed off with Jameer Nelson's return, but he showed enough the first couple weeks of the season to raise his profile in Fantasyland. If J.J. Redick is dealt, Moore could be in line for 25 minutes per game by the end of the season.
 

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Seeking single-category helpers

By Seth Landman | Special to ESPN.com

It's still early in the 2012-13 fantasy basketball season, but it's not that early. Teams have now played between 12 and 15 games, which means the season is almost a fifth of the way through. A few things have become clear in the early going, but a lot is still open for debate. Kevin Durant, after having his reign as best fantasy player in the land questioned by LeBron James last season, has put a rest to the debate already this time around. His worst category so far this season (according to the Player Rater) is assists, but the only non-guards ahead of him in that category (when sorted by averages) are LeBron James and Marc Gasol. Again: that's Durant's worst category. As for the rest of the players in the league, they come with plenty of caveats and qualifications.

Which guys should you target? It depends on what you need. Andrei Kirilenko and Stephen Curry, for example, have had roughly similar value so far this season on a per-game basis (they are currently ranked 23rd and 24th by this measure, respectively), but the ways in which each contributes to your fantasy team couldn't be more different.

What follows is a list of players you might want to think about targeting for help in each of the eight categories. These players have their warts, sure, but they are players you could put together reasonable trade offers to get, and if your fantasy squad needs help in their specialty, they could be exactly what you need.

(Ranking in the category based on per-game stats in parentheses)

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Chandler

[h=3]Field goal percentage[/h]
Tyson Chandler, C, New York Knicks (1): Let's start with the negatives. His rebound rate has declined a bit from last season (which was already worse than the season before), and I'm a little concerned that he's playing just 30 minutes per game (down from 33 last season) with Amar'e Stoudemire's return to the lineup looming somewhere in the future. But Chandler set the non-Wilt Chamberlain record for field goal percentage in a season in 2011-12, and he's doing even better this time around (currently better than 70 percent). His overall current ranking (63) is just shy of where he was drafted in fantasy leagues (58.4), so if you put together a fair offer, he's probably out there for the taking. In spite of his relatively small number of attempts, there isn't another player out there who will help your team's overall field goal percentage more.

[h=3]Free throw percentage[/h]
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Hamilton

Richard Hamilton, SG, Chicago Bulls (8): You can probably just go ahead and pick him up off the waiver wire, because he's not even a top-100 player at the moment. However, Hamilton is looking a little like his old self, and given how much the Bulls need his scoring in their lineup, he's a player you might want to think about adding if you're carrying any dead weight on your roster and need help at the line. Forget the fact he's shooting 95 percent so far this season, and focus on the attempts. He's back up to three per game, more than double last season's putrid number, and that means his high percentage carries some real value. Yes, you might want to focus on guys like J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford here, but Hamilton's the easiest one to acquire, so if you're an Al Horford owner looking for a free throw lifeline, Hamilton might be your best bet.

[h=3]3-pointers made[/h]
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Foye

Randy Foye, PG/SG, Utah Jazz (12): Foye, like Hamilton, is probably available in your league, but that doesn't mean he's not worth owning. He's currently in the top 10 in made 3-pointers, and has made at least two from long range in 11 of his 15 games so far this season. That's valuable, especially in the short-term in head-to-head formats. His production in other areas is pretty terrible, but his poor field goal percentage is easier to swallow because he attempts (and makes) so many 3s, and he's actually quite good from the line, too. In a week where he plays four times, he could easily get you 10 3s, and that could be the difference between winning and losing in a lot of fantasy leagues.

[h=3]Rebounds[/h]
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Hickson

J.J. Hickson, PF/C, Portland Trail Blazers (8): Hickson is playing pretty decent minutes so far this season for the Blazers, allowing him to take advantage of the fact he's posting the third highest rebound rate in the league among players playing at least 25 minutes per game. It helps that his frontcourt mate, LaMarcus Aldridge, counts rebounding as one of his weaknesses, so the Trail Blazers need every board Hickson can muster. Hickson is a big man who doesn't get blocks or steals, which is unfortunate, but it also means that he might be undervalued by owners who don't need his rebounding so much. If you're desperate for boards, he's a guy you should absolutely target; if he can keep averaging 10 per game, he'll be in the top 10 at season's end.

[h=3]Assists[/h]
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Vasquez

Greivis Vasquez, PG, New Orleans Hornets (5): The quick fix at this spot is Kirk Hinrich; the Bulls point guard is going to keep putting up somewhere in the neighborhood of six assists per game at least until Derrick Rose returns to the lineup, and he's likely available in your league right now. The guy I'd be looking at trading for, though, is Vasquez. The Hornets' only other real point guard is the wholly unproven (but promising) Brian Roberts, so Vasquez is a good bet to keep seeing the 33 minutes per game he's been getting so far. Only Chris Paul and Rajon Rondo play more minutes with a higher assist rate, so the fact Vasquez shoots a low percentage from the floor and never gets steals is mitigated by the fact he can single-handedly anchor your team in assists. Offering up another player ranked somewhere in the 60-80 range overall would be fair, and could let you trade an area of surplus for one of need.

[h=3]Steals[/h]
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Gee

Alonzo Gee, SG/SF, Cleveland Cavaliers (21): Gee showed signs of this last season, averaging 1.3 steals per game in 29 minutes, but he's up to 1.7 this season, and those minutes are seemingly going up. When you add to the steals the fact he's slowly turning himself into a passable 3-point shooter (0.9 made per game) and a real weapon from the foul line (88 percent on 3.2 attempts per game), the fact he's still available in some leagues starts to look more and more surprising. He definitely turns it over more than he should, but his ability to contribute a little in points and assists while being a top-20 thief gives him some major value. Offering up a more well-known but less valuable player (Evan Turner, perhaps?) would probably be enough to net Gee in return, and I'd much rather have Gee in fantasy leagues.

[h=3]Blocks[/h]
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Hibbert

Roy Hibbert, C, Indiana Pacers (1): Hibbert, as has been widely reported, has been most a disaster this season, save for one game where he had a triple-double in points, rebounds and blocks. Hibbert is just the ninth guy to pull this off since the turn of the century, so it's nothing to shove aside. Still, the fact he's shooting 39 percent from the floor and scoring fewer than 10 points per game takes some of the shine off the accomplishment. I just traded him in one of my leagues, so I'm certainly not advocating him as a buy-low candidate. Still, if you need blocks, Hibbert is your man: He would still be in the top-5 in the league in blocks per game if you threw out his 11-block performance. If the guy who owns him is desperate enough, someone like Nikola Pekovic or Andrea Bargnani could do the trick.

[h=3]Points[/h]
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DeRozan

DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF, Toronto Raptors (20): No one gets you an emptier 18 points per game than DeRozan, so if you're desperate for scoring, this might be where you need to look. There's a good chance the person who owns him in your fantasy league already knows that he needs to try to trade DeRozan for help in other categories, so if scoring is the category you need, you might be in luck. I'm not holding out any hope for DeRozan to turn into a more well-rounded player, but it's clear that the Raptors will continue to rely on his scoring for the foreseeable future, especially now that they've locked him into a long-term contract. Given that he's currently well outside of the top 100 on the Player Rater, it shouldn't be too difficult to put together a fair trade offer.
 

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Keep eye on Hamilton, Brooks, O'Neal

By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

Disclaimer for fantasy hoops veterans: The preface to this column focuses on basic waiver wire tools in order to assist new owners with sorting and finding players to add to their teams. If you're proficient in using the waiver wire already, skip down to the bolded names to find some widely available players whose value is on the rise.

For new or casual fantasy hoops owners, it's important to know how to use the "players" tab on your ESPN team page in order to sort through the available players and identify which are worth a roster spot.

Here are the important functions to understand:

Time frame: You can sort a player by his stats over the past seven, 15 and 30 days as well as season totals and season projections.

Statistical Category: Once you have chosen your time frame, you can sort by points, rebounds, assists or any other category your league includes in order to find out a player's averages over that time period. This is critical when adding based upon specific needs, as you can identify which players are providing that stat.

Player Rater Ranking: Under the "research" tab, you can sort players by their ranking on the player rater over the past seven, 15 and 30 days as well as by their season ranking. This is a quick and simple way to identify which players have had the most overall value in a given time period.

Percent owned: Shows the percentage of ESPN leagues in which the player is on a roster. Generally, this acts as a basic barometer for perceived value.

+/-: A helpful tool, this allows you to know how many leagues have added or dropped a player over the past seven days. It's a great indicator of a player's upward or downward trending popularity.

For me, the most useful method is sorting by player rater ranking by the various time frames and noting long- and short-term trends. As the season gets further along and your team's needs become clearer, sorting by specific statistics becomes integral when addressing deficiencies.

These are the basics of using the waiver wire tools that are at your disposal in ESPN leagues. The real trick is watching games, monitoring box scores on a nightly basis and noticing these trends before they become apparent to others. Just know that these resources do a great deal of the basic leg work for you, so be sure to use them.

Now, onto the notable waiver wire picks of the week:

Richard Hamilton, SG, Chicago Bulls (29.4 percent owned): If we closely examined last season's splits, it should have been clear that Hamilton would put up sound scoring stats with Derrick Rose sidelined. In 10 games last season without Rose, Hamilton averaged 13.9 points on 48.7 percent shooting from the floor with 3.5 assists and 0.9 3-pointers per game. That's comparable to this season's 13.8 points per game, which Hamilton should be capable of sustaining until Rose's return. Before Wednesday's 4-point effort, Rip had averaged 17 points per game over his past five contests and had scored at least 12 points in seven of his past nine. Impact scoring is hard to find on the waiver wire, and Hamilton is as cheap as they come.

Aaron Brooks, PG, Sacramento Kings (15.4 percent owned): Although he usurped Isaiah Thomas as the starting point guard, Brooks won't put up typical point guard stats, especially playing alongside Tyreke Evans, who is capable of handling the ball and sharing distribution duties. Brooks can score and nail 3s, as evidenced by his 2009-2010 campaign with the Rockets in which he averaged 19.6 points and 2.5 3s per game and led the league in 3-pointers made. He also performed well in China last season, averaging 22.3 points per game with 4.8 assists and 1.9 steals. So far, his performance as a starter has been inconsistent, as he has had three good games and two clunkers in his past five. Although there is no way he'll replicate his career season and he's a bit of a defensive liability, he'll be a steady source of points with plenty of 3s and some ancillary assists thrown in.

Jermaine O'Neal, C, Phoenix Suns (13.9 percent owned): The Suns' renowned training staff has done it again, helping O'Neal post his best overall and per-minute numbers since 2009-2010:

Per-48 minute averages 2012-2013: 21.3 points, 12.9 rebounds, 4.2 blocks, 1.4 steals
Per-48 minute averages 2009-2010: 22.9 points, 11.7 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, 0.6 steals

The training staff doesn't deserve all the credit. O'Neal went to Germany for offseason knee treatment and improved his diet. His dedication to a career resurgence shows, as he has scored in double figures in five of his past seven and is averaging 10.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 0.6 steals per game over his past five in 21.4 minutes per game. The blocks are legitimate, as O'Neal was impactful in that category last season in Boston before his wrist injury, averaging 1.7 swats per game in 25 games. This season, he is doing more scoring and rebounding, and with Marcin Gortat soaking up the majority of the minutes in the center, O'Neal should be able to remain around 20 minutes per game, keeping him healthy and capable of providing dependable blocks with some scoring and rebounding.

Tiago Splitter, PF/C, San Antonio Spurs (4.3 percent owned): He is unpredictable overall, but the one area where Splitter has been consistently impressive is in his field goal percentage, an undervalued fantasy stat. Last season, he shot 61.8 percent from the floor, second behind only Tyson Chandler among players who averaged at least five shots per contest. This season is similar, as Splitter is shooting 58.2 percent with only seven players who average as many shots per game shooting at a higher clip. He is worth adding only if you're targeting field goal percentage, but if you do, he'll provide just enough rebounds, blocks and steals to be palatable.

Kyle Singler, SF/SG, Detroit Pistons (4 percent owned): Four years at Duke and a year in Europe seemingly prepared Singler well for the NBA. While college stats don't always translate to the NBA, he put up intriguing numbers from a fantasy perspective at Duke, with four-year averages of 16.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.8 3s, 0.7 blocks and 1.1 steals per game. He is averaging a miniature version of those statistics with the Pistons (9.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.1 3s, 0.7 blocks in 25.5 minutes per game) and has already carved out a significant role. On Monday, he scored 16 points on 6-for-7 shooting from the floor in 36 minutes and complemented it with 10 rebounds, five assists, three 3s, two steals and a block. Wednesday marked his third straight game with at least 12 points. Much like Chandler Parsons or Shane Battier, Singler won't blow you away in any statistical category, but he has low turnovers and does a little of everything.

Lavoy Allen, PF/C, Philadelphia 76ers (1.5 percent owned): Allen has stepped into the starting center role in Philadelphia. With Andrew Bynum out indefinitely, Doug Collins favoring Spencer Hawes in a bench role and Kwame Brown being Kwame Brown, Allen has a prime opportunity to shine. He averaged 13.2 rebounds per 48 minutes as a rookie, a higher rate than guys like Nikola Pekovic and Paul Millsap, and has demonstrated solid rebounding acumen while providing apt team defense. Allen is not especially athletic, but he has nice size and displays a soft touch around the basket. He'll primarily provide rebounding and some blocks/steals, but he attempts more shots from 16-23 feet than anywhere else on the floor, which limits his offensive potential and puts a low ceiling on his field goal percentage. He is a work in progress, but if he can shake some of the consistency issues that have plagued him throughout his career and achieve his potential, he could be a decent fantasy center in deep leagues.

Jeffery Taylor, SG, Charlotte Bobcats (1 percent owned): Taylor is averaging 11.8 points, 2.2 steals and 1.6 3s over his past five games in a surprising but well deserved 32.4 minutes per game. With his striking athleticism and defensive capabilities, he is a good fit for Mike Dunlap -- much better than Ben Gordon. He and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist form a duo of dynamic wing defenders, and with Taylor's solid spot-up skills and capability of using his athleticism to score, he should provide points, 3s and steals with these minutes. Don't expect too much, but steals are hard to find and he is proficient in providing them consistently, as he averaged over a steal per game in each of his final three seasons at Vanderbilt.
 

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Fantasy Forecaster: Dec. 3-9

By Neil Tardy | Special to ESPN.com

From the moment Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen joined Paul Pierce in Boston, the Celtics became one of the NBA's elite defensive teams. Over the five seasons spanning 2007-08 through 2011-12, the Celtics ranked second, third, sixth, first and second, respectively, in points allowed. Further, they ranked first, second, ninth, second and first, respectively, in opponents' shooting percentage over that five-season span.

Things sure have changed. So far this season, the Celtics rank 22nd in scoring defense, yielding 99.7 points per game. Boston's opponents are also shooting a robust 45.9 percent, meaning that the Celtics rank just 26th in that regard. If that wasn't bad enough, Boston is getting obliterated on the boards: The Celtics have a league-worst minus-5.3 rebound differential.

The C's being the high-profile team they are -- and you being the studious fantasy owner you are -- you probably already knew that Boston is no longer a matchup to avoid when setting your lineup. But the Celtics' struggles do show how things can change -- both quickly and drastically.

But here are some numbers that may surprise you: Golden State Warriors opponents are shooting just 43.3 percent so far (26th in the league), and the New York Knicks, despite allowing just 94.4 points per game, are surrendering 8.2 3-pointers per contest (that's the fifth-most).

As for the toughest fantasy matchup at the moment, I'd go with the Memphis Grizzlies. Grizzlies opponents rank 29th in scoring (91.1 points), 25th in shooting (43.3 percent), 27th in total rebounds (39.3) and 30th in assists (18.8).


[h=3]Week 6 at a Glance[/h]

<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style>
<center> </center> Team <center> Mon
12/3 </center>
<center> Tue
12/4 </center>
<center> Wed
12/5 </center>
<center> Thu
12/6 </center>
<center> Fri
12/7 </center>
<center> Sat
12/8 </center>
<center> Sun
12/9 </center>
<center> </center>
atl.gif
Atlanta
Hawks
OFF OFF DEN
R: 5
OFF WSH
R: 5
@MEM
R: 2
OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 2
bos.gif
Boston
Celtics
OFF OFF MIN
R: 2
OFF @PHI
R: 4
PHI
R: 3
OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 1
bkn.gif
Brooklyn
Nets
OFF OKC
R: 4
OFF OFF GS
R: 6
OFF MIL
R: 6
G: 3
H: 3
R: 3
cha.gif
Charlotte
Bobcats
POR
R: 7
OFF NY
R: 4
OFF @MIL
R: 4
SA
R: 4
OFF G: 4
H: 3
R: 7
chi.gif
Chicago
Bulls
OFF IND
R: 1
@CLE
R: 8
OFF @DET
R: 5
NY
R: 4
OFF G: 4
H: 2
R: 6
cle.gif
Cleveland
Cavaliers
@DET
R: 4
OFF CHI
R: 1
OFF @MIN
R: 2
DET
R: 3
OFF G: 4
H: 2
R: 4
dal.gif
Dallas
Mavericks
OFF OFF @LAC
R: 2
@PHX
R: 5
OFF @HOU
R: 5
OFF G: 3
H: 0
R: 2
den.gif
Denver
Nuggets
TOR
R: 10
OFF @ATL
R: 7
OFF @IND
R: 4
OFF @NY
R: 7
G: 4
H: 1
R: 9
det.gif
Detroit
Pistons
CLE
R: 8
OFF GS
R: 6
OFF CHI
R: 3
@CLE
R: 6
OFF G: 4
H: 3
R: 8
gsw.gif
Golden State
Warriors
ORL
R: 6
OFF @DET
R: 5
OFF @BKN
R: 1
@WSH
R: 5
OFF G: 4
H: 1
R: 6
hou.gif
Houston
Rockets
OFF LAL
R: 6
OFF OFF @SA
R: 7
DAL
R: 10
OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 5
ind.gif
Indiana
Pacers
OFF @CHI
R: 1
POR
R: 7
OFF DEN
R: 5
OFF @OKC
R: 2
G: 4
H: 2
R: 6
lac.gif
Los Angeles
Clippers
@UTA
R: 6
OFF DAL
R: 10
OFF OFF PHX
R: 10
TOR
R: 10
G: 4
H: 3
R: 10
lal.gif
Los Angeles
Lakers
OFF @HOU
R: 10
@NO
R: 10
OFF @OKC
R: 6
OFF UTA
R: 7
G: 4
H: 1
R: 10
mem.gif
Memphis
Grizzlies
OFF PHX
R: 9
OFF OFF @NO
R: 10
ATL
R: 7
OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 6
mia.gif
Miami
Heat
OFF @WSH
R: 7
OFF NY
R: 8
OFF NO
R: 10
OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 6
mil.gif
Milwaukee
Bucks
@NO
R: 10
OFF @SA
R: 6
OFF CHA
R: 8
OFF @BKN
R: 3
G: 4
H: 1
R: 9
min.gif
Minnesota
Timberwolves
OFF @PHI
R: 4
@BOS
R: 7
OFF CLE
R: 8
OFF OFF G: 3
H: 1
R: 4
nor.gif
New Orleans
Hornets
MIL
R: 3
OFF LAL
R: 2
OFF MEM
R: 1
@MIA
R: 5
OFF G: 4
H: 3
R: 4
nyk.gif
New York
Knicks
OFF OFF @CHA
R: 8
@MIA
R: 7
OFF @CHI
R: 4
DEN
R: 7
G: 4
H: 1
R: 9
okc.gif
Oklahoma City
Thunder
OFF @BKN
R: 6
OFF OFF LAL
R: 9
OFF IND
R: 7
G: 3
H: 2
R: 5
orl.gif
Orlando
Magic
@GS
R: 1
OFF @UTA
R: 1
OFF @SAC
R: 3
OFF @PHX
R: 3
G: 4
H: 0
R: 3
phi.gif
Philadelphia
76ers
OFF MIN
R: 2
OFF OFF BOS
R: 6
@BOS
R: 5
OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 2
pho.gif
Phoenix
Suns
OFF @MEM
R: 2
OFF DAL
R: 10
OFF @LAC
R: 4
ORL
R: 6
G: 4
H: 2
R: 8
por.gif
Portland
Trail Blazers
@CHA
R: 6
OFF @IND
R: 1
OFF OFF SAC
R: 9
OFF G: 3
H: 1
R: 3
sac.gif
Sacramento
Kings
OFF OFF TOR
R: 7
OFF ORL
R: 4
@POR
R: 6
OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 3
sas.gif
San Antonio
Spurs
OFF OFF MIL
R: 7
OFF HOU
R: 9
@CHA
R: 9
OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 6
tor.gif
Toronto
Raptors
@DEN
R: 3
OFF @SAC
R: 5
OFF @UTA
R: 2
OFF @LAC
R: 2
G: 4
H: 0
R: 5
uth.gif
Utah
Jazz
LAC
R: 6
OFF ORL
R: 7
OFF TOR
R: 10
OFF @LAL
R: 5
G: 4
H: 3
R: 9
was.gif
Washington
Wizards
OFF MIA
R: 3
OFF OFF @ATL
R: 2
GS
R: 3
OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 1

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
"R" matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup), and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories, and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the right lists the team's total number of games scheduled ("G") as well as home games ("H"), and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule ("R").
<center> Ratings color scale </center>
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>



Because I like to make up acronyms, I'm going to call this a "4S" week, which stands for "schedule stability sans surprises." It means that every NBA team has either three or four games in Week 6 -- for the record, 16 of the 30 teams play four times. That may not be a big deal, but it is unusual, at least for this season. The only other time we'll see a week where no team is stuck with two games is at the end of March.

The Los Angeles Clippers have one of the more enticing Week 6 schedules. They visit the Utah Jazz before coming home to face the Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns and Toronto Raptors. I'm not sure if Chauncey Billups is ready for extended action -- in his first game back after his devastating Achilles injury, the vet finished with seven points in 19 minutes against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Nov. 28 -- but he is still available in about half of ESPN.com leagues, so now would be a good time to add him. In leagues of at least 12 teams, Matt Barnes, who's unrostered in most ESPN.com leagues, seems like a good plug-in. I especially like him for leagues that allow daily lineup changes, as you'll be able to use him on three days -- Monday at the Jazz, Saturday against the Suns and Sunday against the Raptors -- when there aren't many other NBA games. If Barnes sees at least 24 minutes, chances are he'll do something to help you.

[h=3]Players to Watch[/h]
Aaron Brooks, PG, Sacramento Kings (TOR, ORL, @POR): After three straight games of double-digit scoring and multiple 3-pointers, Brooks managed only seven points in 26 minutes against the Timberwolves on Nov. 27. In that same game, Isaiah Thomas, the former starting point guard, saw his greatest activity since Nov. 11 (21 minutes with a plus-5 mark in the Kings' eight-point loss). It's probably just a one-game blip -- indications are that Kings coach Keith Smart is set with Brooks as the starter. Still, the schedule provides little incentive to gamble in standard 10-team leagues. Portland Trail Blazers and Orlando Magic opponents both rank in the bottom third in 3s made, though Raptors opponents rank sixth in assists.

Vince Carter, SG/SF, Dallas Mavericks (@LAC, @PHX, @HOU): V.C. is averaging 2.2 triples this season, and he stands a good chance of maintaining that lofty average in Week 6, with Houston Rockets and Suns opponents fourth and seventh, respectively, in 3s. Carter is rostered in about a quarter of ESPN.com leagues, and is worth activating in deeper leagues.

Kawhi Leonard, SG/SF, San Antonio Spurs (MIL, HOU, @CHA): This isn't so much a schedule play but a friendly reminder, or FR. (I do like my acronyms.) After missing eight games with quadriceps tendinitis in his left knee, Leonard is expected to return this weekend. His availability has edged past 50 percent in ESPN.com leagues, so add him if you have a roster opening. Leonard is averaging 2.0 steals this season, and Rockets opponents rank seventh in that category. Charlotte Bobcats opponents, on the other hand, are only 28th in steals.

Jermaine O'Neal, C, Phoenix Suns (@MEM, DAL, @LAC, ORL): As Marcin Gortat owners know all too well, the 34-year-old O'Neal is still playing -- and he looks as healthy and productive as he's been in at least a couple of seasons. Though J.O. is only averaging 21 minutes over his past seven games, his 1.9 blocks per game in that span will play in leagues of at least 12 teams. With that in mind, this four-game set doesn't offer a lot. Memphis Grizzlies opponents rank 10th in blocks, but Dallas Mavericks and Clippers opponents are both in the bottom six in rejections.

Kevin Seraphin, PF/C, Washington Wizards (MIA, @ATL, GS): After I mentioned Seraphin early this season, the Frenchman promptly endured a five-game stretch where he managed only 16 minutes per game. But shortly after the Wizards lost Trevor Booker to a knee injury, Seraphin was inserted into the starting lineup. In four games since, he's averaged 13.8 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.5 blocks. There's no timetable for Booker's return, so perhaps Seraphin will finally get an extended opportunity. Nothing special with the schedule. Golden State Warriors opponents rank seventh in blocks, but they rank only 26th in rebound differential. Atlanta Hawks opponents rank fifth in rebound differential, but Miami Heat opponents rank 28th in blocks. Seraphin is available in about 80 percent of ESPN.com leagues.

Kyle Singler, SG/SF, Detroit Pistons (CLE, GS, CHI, @CLE): Singler moved into the starting lineup on Nov. 14. In those eight games, he's averaging 12.0 points while shooting 52.9 percent. It seems unlikely he can maintain that strong shooting, but Singler does draw two games with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and Cavs opponents are shooting a league-high 48.9 percent from the field. On the other hand, Warriors and Chicago Bulls opponents rank in the bottom seven in shooting. While Singler is starting to get noticed -- he's now been rostered in about 10 percent of ESPN.com leagues -- I'll add that the guy he replaced in the lineup, Rodney Stuckey, seems to be getting comfortable with his reserve role. Stuckey is coming off an 18-point performance against the Suns on Nov. 28, and with the Pistons now using Stuckey to back up Brandon Knight as well as Singler, he gets the ball in his hands more, which better suits his game. Stuckey's available in about two-thirds of ESPN.com leagues.


<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style>[h=3]Opponent Performance, Past 10 games[/h]
<center> </center> Team <center> PPGA </center><center> FG%A </center><center> 3PT%A </center><center> RPG
diff. </center>
<center> SPGA </center><center> BPGA </center>
nor.gif
New Orleans
Hornets
105.0 47.8% 44.7% -1.0 7.9 7.2
gsw.gif
Golden State
Warriors
104.4 46.2% 38.5% 1.4 7.1 7.2
tor.gif
Toronto
Raptors
103.1 45.6% 37.8% -1.3 6.9 5.5
cle.gif
Cleveland
Cavaliers
102.2 45.3% 40.2% -6.9 9.9 4.3
sac.gif
Sacramento
Kings
101.2 46.8% 37.7% -3.4 7.5 6.0
pho.gif
Phoenix
Suns
101.1 48.0% 40.7% -2.6 6.6 5.5
dal.gif
Dallas
Mavericks
100.7 44.7% 43.7% 4.9 8.7 5.4
por.gif
Portland
Trail Blazers
100.3 48.2% 34.1% -2.6 9.3 4.0
det.gif
Detroit
Pistons
99.9 43.3% 33.9% 4.9 8.9 6.8
chi.gif
Chicago
Bulls
99.2 47.9% 39.0% 1.6 7.8 8.1
bos.gif
Boston
Celtics
99.1 45.4% 36.2% -5.6 7.3 4.2
okc.gif
Oklahoma City
Thunder
98.7 43.6% 37.3% 3.9 9.3 3.4
mia.gif
Miami
Heat
98.3 44.4% 37.1% -1.1 7.4 3.5
nyk.gif
New York
Knicks
97.9 45.9% 39.8% -2.9 5.9 5.0
mem.gif
Memphis
Grizzlies
97.8 43.3% 34.6% -1.3 7.7 3.9
was.gif
Washington
Wizards
97.7 44.4% 35.8% -1.4 7.9 5.5
orl.gif
Orlando
Magic
97.6 44.7% 32.7% 0.7 8.7 4.3
uth.gif
Utah
Jazz
97.5 45.0% 37.0% 5.0 7.5 4.6
sas.gif
San Antonio
Spurs
96.7 44.5% 31.0% -1.2 7.1 4.9
bkn.gif
Brooklyn
Nets
96.4 42.1% 32.2% -2.6 7.0 9.1
phi.gif
Philadelphia
76ers
95.9 43.9% 35.7% -5.6 6.1 5.0
mil.gif
Milwaukee
Bucks
94.8 44.9% 31.5% 3.1 6.9 6.1
ind.gif
Indiana
Pacers
94.0 42.7% 38.5% 0.6 7.2 4.5
lac.gif
Los Angeles
Clippers
93.8 42.9% 34.3% 4.7 8.8 4.4
cha.gif
Charlotte
Bobcats
93.7 44.2% 28.2% 5.1 8.2 6.7
den.gif
Denver
Nuggets
93.6 41.1% 33.5% 2.6 8.0 5.1
atl.gif
Atlanta
Hawks
90.6 42.3% 35.2% -3.5 10.0 4.5
hou.gif
Houston
Rockets
90.2 40.4% 28.1% 4.0 7.0 4.4
lal.gif
Los Angeles
Lakers
89.5 42.2% 33.9% 0.7 7.3 5.6
min.gif
Minnesota
Timberwolves
89.2 43.8% 30.8% 2.0 7.0 3.8

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
All statistics are for teams' past 10 games played, and are defensive numbers. PPGA: Points per game allowed. FG%A: Field goal percentage allowed. 3PT%A: Three-point percentage allowed. RPG diff.: Rebounds per game differential. SPGA: Steals per game allowed. BPGA: Blocks per game allowed.

 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,222
Tokens
The 'Atypical Production' players

By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

How does a well-drafted, solidly maintained fantasy basketball team best survive the statistical peaks and valleys of a long NBA season? By preparing for tomorrow and insulating your team's production from the eventual calamities that will assuredly arrive. Injuries, tendinitis, suspensions and Scott Skiles are just a few of the forces that could negatively impact your team's fortunes.


It's your job to prepare for these calamities in advance.

The best way to do this is by looking for players who can give you what I call "atypical production." These are players who produce stats in categories that fall beyond the projected norms for their position. In financial terms, think of it as diversifying your portfolio.

I'm talking centers and power forwards who can hit 3-pointers, notch assists and hit a high percentage of their free throws. Or guards who can rebound, block shots and maintain a high field goal percentage while repeatedly connecting from downtown. Spreading your team's overall numerical portfolio in small, subtle ways up and down your lineup will help protect your team against missed games.

Another huge plus is that atypical production helps maintain another precious fantasy resource: flexibility.

You don't want your numbers to be overly concentrated or top-heavy. By stocking your lineup with out-of-position stats, you'll be more confident when assessing trades and waiver-wire pickups because you know that your team's production in certain categories runs deeper than the obvious statistical leaders.


We're closing in on 20 percent of the season being in the books, making now a good time to start looking at which players are providing these kinds of numbers. Fifteen or 16 games is usually a large enough sample size to begin referring to a player's atypical production as a trend. You need a good chunk of games, because we're not talking about large-scale averages.
So let's have a look. Note that I'm going to filter out players who are more known as small forwards for the sake of this discussion, since they tend to be a diversified group unto themselves. I'm also going to stay away from some of the bigger names, such as Russell Westbrook, to discuss players who might be acquired with relative ease.


[h=3]'Atypical' guards[/h]
Rebound averages for top 100 guards: 3.18 per game
Block averages for top 100 guards: 0.29 per game

Kyle Lowry, PG, Toronto Raptors (6.0 rebounds per game, 0.5 blocks per game): How many other guards are currently averaging more than 5.5 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game? Zero. Lowry has simply been in a class by himself, and needs only to remain healthy to cement his status as one of the biggest fantasy steals of the season (his average draft position was 56.4).

But Lowry's sneakiest fantasy asset has been his shot-blocking. A half a block a game might not make an NBA player look like the second coming of Manute Bol. But he's currently ranked No. 3 among all fantasy point guards in blocks per game (Deron Williams edges him out at 0.6 BPG, and Eric Bledsoe leads all point guards at 0.7 … in just 19.3 minutes per game).

Kemba Walker, PG/SG, Charlotte Bobcats (3.8 RPG, 0.5 BPG): I've been touting Walker lately, and I see no reason to start backing off now. He's evolving into one of fantasy's most underrated guards, especially when measured against where he went in drafts (ADP: 92.3).

(Speaking of Walker, my favorite head-to-head fantasy point guard matchup of the season to date has been the Bobcats/Raptors tilt on 11/21, in which Walker went for 19 points, 1 3-pointer, 7 assists, 3 rebounds, 1 steal and 3 blocks, and Lowry went for 21 points, 4 3-pointers, 8 assists, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, and 3 blocks.)

Jeremy Lin, PG, Houston Rockets (4.4 RPG, 0.4 BPG): Though Lin has disappointed his owners this season in terms of scoring, he still has chipped in with some solid "atypical" numbers. He's rebounding at a better rate than even his "Linsane" peaks of last season -- he finished with 3.0 rebounds per game in 2011-12 -- and finding ways to help his owners despite his struggles from the floor. And don't look now, but Lin is starting to step it up from the field (51 percent over his past five games).

Bradley Beal, SG, Washington Wizards (3.3 RPG, 0.5 BPG): I'm including Beal here because he's showing signs of being a special atypical player at a future date. As a classic-era Dwyane Wade enthusiast (say, 2006-07), I'm always searching for the next wave of shooting guards who can rebound and block shots. Paul George is one of those guards, and so is Beal, even at this early stage of his career.

He had five blocks over a three-game span in mid-November and posted a double-double in one of those games as well (Nov. 24 versus the Bobcats). Beal isn't dazzling anyone with his scoring, but there are indicators that he could become a special fantasy player down the road.

Evan Turner, SG/SF, Philadelphia 76ers (7.1 RPG, 0.3 BPG): I know he's probably too much of a small forward to include here, but I've been so excited about Turner's maturation that I just had to include him. Now in his third season, Turner's production is building in an across-the-board fashion that nobody could have anticipated on draft day (ADP: 94.0).

It's ironic that the player he reminds me of the most this season is Andre Iguodala. He's giving owners that same heady mix of boards, steals and assists with the key lying in his newfound consistency. His numbers from the last five contests: 20.2 points per game, 1.2 3-pointers, 6.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.2 blocks, .514 field goal percentage, .829 free throw percentage and .429 3-point percentage.


[h=3]'Atypical' big men[/h]
3-pointers for top 100 power forwards/centers: 0.21 per game
Assists for top 100 PF/C: 1.2 per game
Steals for top 100 PF/C: 0.64 per game

Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies (4.4 assists per game, 0.7 steals per game): Nothing about Gasol's numbers jump out at you when viewed through a conventional NBA prism. The rebounds are a relatively mediocre 7.1 per game. He has nice percentages, solid blocks and better-than-average steals. But 4.4 dimes a game from a big is almost four times the average for the top 100 players at his position. That would be like Kyle Lowry averaging 12 rebounds a game or Jeremy Lin averaging 1.2 blocks.

Think of it this way: How do you catch up in assists in your league versus an owner that has Rajon Rondo? Rondo is lapping the field at 12.9 assists per game. Even if you were starting, say, Deron Williams at point guard, you'd be giving up four assists per game at that position alone. Having Gasol at center would be giving you back at least 2-3 assists per game thanks to his atypical production.

Bonus fact: Gasol leads all centers in free throw percentage (89.7 percent) among centers who average at least two attempts per game. That's also atypical production.

Joakim Noah, PF/C, Chicago Bulls (4.3 APG, 1.4 SPG): How many centers are averaging more than 2.5 assists per game right now? Ten. Factor in the fact that assists are one of the toughest categories to acquire in-season, and you'll see why getting an extra 3 assists per night out of your starting center is so invaluable.

Don't believe me? Just ask the Bulls. Their starting point guard -- a guy you might have heard of named Derrick Rose -- is likely out until after New Year's Day. So who's picking up the slack in the dimes department? Noah. He's averaging 2.4 assists over his career number of 1.9, and he's now second on the team behind Kirk Hinrich. He has almost had two triple-doubles this season already, most recently Saturday against the Sixers (12 points, 13 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 block, 1 steal).

And don't forget that he's doubling the average steals output for a center while still providing elite blocks (2.2) and boards (9.9).

Greg Monroe, PF/C, Detroit Pistons (3.5 APG, 1.7 STL): Monroe has been building toward top-5 status at center, and he might finally get there this campaign. With increased responsibility on offense, he's posting career highs in all of the volume categories while dipping only slightly in field goal percentage.

He's unfortunately one of the NBA's worst when it comes to consistency from the field; he's capable of going 4-for-17 from the field at any given moment. With Monroe, you just have to learn how to ride out the rough patches and pay attention to the seasonal averages.

Byron Mullens, PF/C, Bobcats (1.5 3-pointers per game, 1.1 SPG): I could single out Andrea Bargnani, Ryan Anderson or Kevin Love as examples of bigs who give you 3s, but I'd be remiss if I didn't push Mullens (again). Basically, what Gasol and Noah are doing in terms of assists, Mullens is doing with 3-pointers. His lines remind me of the recently retired Mehmet Okur, another underrated big man who was one of the best atypical centers of his day.

My one concern is that, at some point, Mullens' green light from behind the arc could be switched at least to yellow due to his hitting only 29 percent of his 3-point attempts. But as long as he's giving the Bobcats a unique presence on the offensive end and stretching their spacing, I'd wager his role remains unchanged.

Markieff Morris, PF, Phoenix Suns (0.6 3-pointers, 1.3 assists in 21.6 MPG): This is another futures pick. Morris' numbers may not dazzle at present, thanks to his averaging only 21.6 MPG, but with Phoenix heading south, Morris' role has been increasing. Actually, both Morris brothers have shown nice atypical upside; it just looks like Markieff is in better position to start pulling in more than 25 minutes per night.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,222
Tokens
Using Perception To Your Advantage

By Seth Landman | Special to ESPN.com

Lately I've been thinking a lot about the problem of perception as it pertains to fantasy basketball. Not to get all serious about it, but there are quite a few players out there of whom the perception does not match the reality whatsoever. So we have rankings systems (such as the Player Rater) to help us sort things out. Meanwhile, when it comes down to the nitty-gritty of making trades, we at times tend to lean on perception a little too much.

By way of example, just the other day I offered a friend of mine Ryan Anderson in exchange for Dwight Howard, straight up. He needed, I reasoned, 3-pointers and free throw percentage, while I needed rebounds, blocked shots and field goal percentage. By just about any ratings system, Ryan Anderson fares far better than Dwight Howard in the fantasy game, with Howard's free throw percentage being the single biggest negative going these days. Still, my friend wrote back that he wanted to make the trade, but just couldn't pull the trigger. I understood. Dwight Howard is simply better at basketball than Ryan Anderson, and that creates a perception that he's more valuable in fantasy than he actually is (I should make clear that this league's format is rotisserie, not head-to-head).

I realized something when I got turned down: It's going to be difficult to sell high on a player like Ryan Anderson. He's playing out of his mind this season; over the past decade and a half, Anderson's 3.3 3-pointers per game this season is better than anyone not named Ray Allen has done. Anderson combines that rare 3-point stroke with a solid rebounding rate and a career-high 47 percent shooting from the floor. I'm tempted to say he can't play better than this, though it's certainly possible that I'm wrong. Still, because of his style (he doesn't generally create shots for himself) and limitations (he doesn't generally block shots or, come to think of it, play much defense at all), it's hard to think of him as one of the premier fantasy players in the game, so it's hard to get fair value for him in trades.

Who are some other players who are better than we think they are? Glad you asked.

(Ranking in the category based on per-game stats in parentheses)

i

Williams

Mo Williams, PG, Jazz (40): Here's another example in which I'm not sure exactly what we missed heading into the season. Williams is currently averaging 14.3 points, 6.9 assists, 1.4 3s and 1.0 steals. Those numbers, coupled with a 96 percent mark on free throws that will probably settle around 90 by season's end, have him well within the top 50 on the Player Rater, which is pretty impressive when you consider the fact his ADP was 89.0.

What did we think he was going to do in Utah? He's still just 29, and his assist rate, while certainly a bit above his average, is not a career high, and certainly not out of line with what he has done throughout his career when he didn't have LeBron James controlling the offense and turning him into a spot-up shooter. Mo, as always, remains a player who can handle various roles. He's a competent point guard who can set up shots for other guys, but when he has a creator on the floor with him, he can slide into the spot-up shooter role, and he's a killer from long range and in the midrange game. That makes him almost just as valuable, albeit in a different role, if for some reason he gets traded to a team that wants to use him more as a scorer, and it makes him worth holding on to (or trying to trade for, if you can).

i

Richardson

Jason Richardson, SG/SF, 76ers (48): Richardson has one elite skill: 3-point shooting. He's making 2.4 3-pointers in 29.1 minutes per game so far this season. That's a lot, but on a team that's completely starved for someone who can space the floor, it's certainly not too far beyond our expectations for him, especially considering he has made right around two per game his entire career. He's traditionally a bad free throw shooter, but he has "remedied" that by simply avoiding trips to the line, and at 4.4 rebounds per game, his once-impressive board skills from the shooting guard spot has at least come back to levels in which he's chipping in and not hurting your team. Certainly he's unlikely to keep racking up 1.7 steals per game, but he should manage to keep himself over one per game (he hasn't had more than three in any single game this season, so it's not like there's an outlier skewing the early returns).

Basically, Richardson is playing better than we expected, but not enough to account for the fact he is currently a top-50 fantasy option after having an ADP of 117.4. As long as Philly keeps overachieving, Richardson is going to keep overachieving in fantasy.

i

Deng

Luol Deng, SF, Bulls (50): You may find this hard to believe, but Deng, in his age 27 season, right in the heart of his prime, is managing to be just about as good as he usually is at basketball! Yes, I know there were injury concerns last season, but Deng is not even playing as well as he's capable of playing, and he's still outpacing his ADP of 58.7. His 3-point shooting should begin to work its way back up to where it has been over the previous four seasons, he'll manage to accumulate marginally more steals and blocks as the season goes on and, most importantly, he'll keep leading the league as the only guy playing more than 40 minutes every night.

For all of that, though, if you try to trade him, you'll probably get rebuffed, because Deng just isn't exciting, and while he's in the top 50, there's not much chance he'll move up much higher than he is right now. He is what he is, and that's a lot better than we seem to realize.

i

Lin

Jeremy Lin, PG, Rockets (65): It has absolutely been a struggle for Lin this season. On Tuesday night against the Lakers, Lin finished with just 4 points, 3 assists and 2 rebounds, and was on the bench when the Rockets' reserves, including backup point guard Toney Douglas, led the team past the Lakers. Prior to the Rockets' acquisition of James Harden, it seemed like Lin, a really good pick-and-roll operator, had the perfect opportunity to put up gaudy numbers on a terrible team. Instead, it often looks like Lin is playing out of his comfort zone. After attempting 5.2 free throws in just 26.9 minutes per game in New York last season, he's attempting just 2.4 in 34.4 minutes this time around. His jump shot seems to have left him entirely. And yet, here's what I don't get: Lin's average draft position (ADP) was 63.0, and he's currently 65th on the Player Rater in a season in which he has failed to live up to statistical expectations almost across the board.

Clearly, this is an example of a player about whom there is something we just don't understand. For one thing, he gets 1.9 steals per game, which puts him just outside the top 10 in the league. Also, among players listed at point guard, only Russell Westbrook and Tyreke Evans grab more rebounds per game than Lin's 4.2. His 6.4 assists per game are well within the top 20, as well. So for all his problems, Lin is actually meeting the fantasy expectations we had of him heading into this season, whether we're aware of it or not. Still, good luck getting anyone to believe it.
 

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Meeks among top pickup options

By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

Now that we're nearly a quarter of the way through the season, it's relatively safe to trust the sample size. In turn, it's also time to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of your team.


Success in fantasy hoops is contingent upon crafting as balanced a roster as possible. This applies not only in rotisserie leagues but also in head-to-head formats. In H2H, identifying surplus and attempting to shift that value toward your weaknesses is a critical strategy; in roto, the best way to improve is to target your specific deficiencies and bolster your numbers there, since there's more points to gain in these areas. Of course, a primary way of addressing needs is through trade, as you can make mutually beneficial swaps based on each team's needs. But that's not what this column is about. Addressing needs through the waiver wire becomes paramount at this point in the season, and it's time to shift your strategy from adding the best all-around player available to the one who best complements your deficiencies.

Identifying what your team needs seems pretty simple: You look at the standings and see where you're lowest. However, there are some deeper questions to consider beyond that:

• What is your pace compared to your max limits? If you're well behind other owners in that respect, then you could naturally make up ground in counting stats, and your deficiencies might not be as glaring as they appear, especially when you consider which players will make up those games and what categories they provide.

• Which players on your roster are significantly underperforming or injured? If you can safely expect more from players that are already on your roster, then you should be able to make up some ground. Conversely, if you have anybody clearly outperforming expectations, or just lost a player to injury, then your strengths aren't as strong as they seem.

• Finally, what positions are you going to fill with free agent additions? If you're maxed out on guards and can't insert another into your lineup without sacrificing a starting role for a superior player, then attempting to address your needs by adding another guard won't help you in the standings.

There is also the strategy of searching for players who fill needs beyond simply sorting by the leaders in those categories. I'll get to those next week, along with the categories I don't touch upon this week.

Here are some barely owned players (in ESPN standard leagues) who are not providing all-around production, but they can help in specific categories as you attempt to bolster your team's weaknesses:


[h=3]3-pointers[/h]

Jodie Meeks, SG, Los Angeles Lakers (0.8 percent owned): As soon as Mike D'Antoni was hired, Meeks was the first player whose value I envisioned rising as D'Antoni's system was implemented. Players who can hit 3s thrive under D'Antoni, especially those who excel in catch-and-shoot situations. I'm reminded of when Raja Bell, Leandro Barbosa and Quentin Richardson each had career 3-point shooting years under D'Antoni. Combine that offense with Meeks' success in stints last season -- he averaged 10.2 points and 2.3 3s in 17 January games -- and you have someone worth fantasy consideration. He's averaging 2.4 3s per game over his past five on 4.8 attempts, so he's gunning freely despite his limited minutes. Meeks can nail the open shot, and as the offensive system takes hold, he should see plenty of them. He could average two per game coming off the bench.


Jerry Stackhouse, SG, Brooklyn Nets (0.4 percent owned): It's thrilling to be highlighting somebody significantly older than me as a fantasy option; that doesn't happen too often anymore. Anyway, Stack loves his corner 3s and he's thriving as a long-range specialist in Brooklyn, averaging 1.5 3s per game in just 17.7 minutes, including 2.8 per game over his past five. As we've seen in many cases, 3-point shooting is a skill that often gets finer with age. With Stack embracing this well-defined role, he should continue knocking down treys with consistency, especially considering the fact that hitting from downtown is his primary objective whenever he gets the ball on the offensive end.


[h=3]Rebounds[/h]

Reggie Evans, PF, Nets (1.7 percent owned): Evans is fourth in the league with 20.7 rebounds per 48 minutes, and has been in the top 10 in rebounding rate each of the past three seasons, including in 2010-2011, when he led the league. He's relentless on the glass, focusing on hustling and gaining leverage, which makes him arguably the best rebounder in the league "pound-for-pound." His constant activity on the court also translates to decent steals numbers, as he's averaging 0.7 per game this year and for his career. He might be the only player in the league capable of providing rebounding help in fewer than 20 minutes per game, and he should consistently provide 7-plus boards per game in a reserve role. Evans also has a high rebounding ceiling with the capability of averaging double digits if a Nets frontcourt injury dictates that he see more minutes.

Zaza Pachulia, C, Atlanta Hawks (0.7 percent owned): Pachulia has averaged at least seven rebounds in every season in which he has played at least 20 minutes per game. That includes this year; he's averaging 7.1 per game in 24.4 minutes. When he's healthy, Zaza is good for around seven boards, a steal and half a block per game. That's worthwhile in deeper formats, and even though his ceiling is low, he's a safe bet to provide consistent boards.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, PF, Milwaukee Bucks (0.1 percent owned): He's worth a flier only in especially deep leagues due to the unpredictability of Scott Skiles' rotations, but Mbah a Moute is an able rebounder who will give you half a block and a steal per game to boot. He played his first game of the season Saturday and has historically been a favorite of Skiles, starting in 187 of 279 career games. Boards tend to be scarce on the wire -- the three players featured in this column are the only three averaging at least seven boards per game while being owned in fewer than 25 percent of leagues -- and if he earns more minutes now that he's healthy, Mbah a Moute's rebound rate is solid enough to boost your team's rebound totals.


[h=3]Assists[/h]
Kirk Hinrich, PG/SG, Chicago Bulls (6.0 percent owned): The 3s and steals have all but disappeared, but Hinrich is averaging 10.1 assists per 48 minutes, a higher rate than Goran Dragic and Raymond Felton. That has added up to 5.8 assists per game, and he has notched at least six assists in eight of the Bulls' past 10 contests. The waiver wire is typically meager with dimes, and Hinrich's ability to run the Bulls' offense in Derrick Rose's absence allows him to contribute consistently in the category.

Chris Duhon, PG, Lakers (0.9 percent owned): It's ugly watching him play at times, but Duhon is the de facto point guard in Los Angeles with Steve Blake out until mid-to-late January and Steve Nash's return still a few weeks away. His limited value will disappear when Nash is at full strength, but right now he's helping in assists, averaging 6.2 per game over his past five, including 10 dimes in 33 minutes Wednesday. He's a short-term option, but if you're hurting for assists and want a couple-week boost, Duhon will provide them, and he's available in nearly every league.

Devin Harris, PG, Hawks (0.7 percent owned): Harris recently joined the starting lineup and averaged 4.3 assists per game over his past three contests. His career trajectory has trended downward, but he showed glimpses of life late last season, averaging 16.5 points, 5.3 assists, 2.4 3s and 1.1 steals in 12 games last April, and he's still just 29. His skill set lends itself to assists, 3s, steals and a high free throw percentage with ample attempts when he's at his best, so pay close attention to how he responds to starting for the Hawks and add him now as a speculative measure if you're in need of point guard help.


[h=3]Steals[/h]
Tony Allen, SG, Memphis Grizzlies (26.3 percent owned): He has been dropped in a number of leagues due to his diminished offensive stats, which is disturbing because there wasn't much there in the first place. But if you're looking for swipes, no player nabs and creates more loose balls than Allen, who is leading the league in steals per 48 minutes (3.94). He finished third in steal rate last season and first in 2010-2011, so despite his offensive deficiencies, he's as dependable as it comes when you're specifically targeting steals. He's day-to-day with a groin injury but shouldn't be sidelined long, and once he returns, he will remain among the best one-category wonders in the league.

Ronnie Brewer, SG, New York Knicks (0.7 percent owned): He has averaged at least 1.1 steals per game in six straight seasons. Unfortunately the only other benefits of owning Brewer are that he has a nice field goal percentage, albeit with low attempts, and he doesn't turn the ball over. He's worth owning only if you're toward the bottom of your league in steals, but he is a dependable source even while playing just 22.8 minutes per game.

Keep Jae Crowder and Jeffery Taylor in mind as well if you're targeting steals, as both are owned in fewer than two percent of leagues.
Next week I'll take a look at the percentage categories, blocks and points.
 

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Knicks success stems from 3-point range

By Ernest Tolden, ESPN Stats & Information
ESPN.com

the two best records in the Eastern Conference. The Heat have revenge on the mind, as the Knicks served them with their worst loss of the season, a 20-point defeat in early November.

In five home meetings last season (two regular season, three postseason), however, the Heat had no trouble against New York, winning by an average of 15.8 points.

Tonight will feature a matchup of two of the most efficient offenses in the NBA this season. The Knicks are tied for first in the NBA averaging 110.9 points per 100 possessions, while the Heat are third averaging 110.1.

The Knicks (13-4) are off to their best 17-game start since beginning the 1995-96 season 13-4. A significant reason behind their success has stemmed from long-distance. The Knicks average an NBA-high 11.8 three-point field goals made this season, and New York has relied on long-distance buckets, as 34.4 percent of their total points have come from three-point field goals, by far the most in the NBA.

No other team has more than 26.5 percent.

A significant contributor from long range has been Jason Kidd, who leads the NBA this season in 3-point field goal percentage (51.1).

Much of the turnaround in New York is thanks to Mike Woodson. Since he took over as Knicks head coach, the team is 31-10 in regular-season games, and only the Spurs have recorded a higher win percentage over that span.

James Continues to Power Heat

LeBron James has recorded at least 20 points in 16 consecutive games to start the season, the longest streak in his career. According to Elias, James is just the third different player since the 2000-01 season with a streak that long to start a season. What's more, James has eight games this season with at least 20 points and 10 rebounds, two more than any other player.

[h=4]Most 20+ Pt Games to Start Season - Since 2000-01[/h]
Season
Allen Iverson212006-07
Allen Iverson212005-06
Carmelo Anthony202009-10
LeBron James162012-13

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>



James has helped power an offense that ranks first in field goal percentage (49.3), second in three-point shooting (41.3) and second in scoring offense (104.4 PPG).

Despite their success on offense, however, the Heat have taken a step back defensively this season.

Miami ranks 20th in defensive efficiency allowing 103.2 points per 100 possessions, a category that the Heat ranked among the top five in during each of the first two seasons of their "Big 3" era

 
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