NBA Fantasy News 2012/2013

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[h=1]Players to consider for future impact[/h][h=3]Injured players like Thaddeus Young, Mo Williams could be quality additions[/h]By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

With the trade deadline hours away and the inevitable fallout that results in shifted value among players, the fantasy basketball landscape is primed to be shaken up for the next week or so. But when the dust settles and we're entrenched in the final couple months of the season, game-changing talent on the waiver wire is sparse. That's why now is the prime time to pounce on injured players who might be several weeks away from returning. But once they do, they will have more impact than the players who are available at that time.

Several big names are among the ranks of currently injured fantasy-worthy players, including Andrew Bynum (67.9 percent owned) and Derrick Rose (86.6 percent owned), both of whom are worth owning in all formats at this point unless you really use all your bench spots and they're filled with undroppable players. If that is the case, I would recommend trading your depth for quality in the starting lineup and filling out your bench with waiver-wire options over the next couple of weeks while value is still readily available.

Here are some available players worth adding, including several currently injured options who will have a substantive late-season impact.

Thaddeus Young, SF/PF, Philadelphia 76ers (71.4 percent owned): Young has stepped up his fantasy game this season, improving in points, rebounds, steals, blocks and field goal percentage, primarily due to a jump in minutes from 27.9 to 35.5 per game. He's been out since Feb. 4 with a hamstring injury. He is on the brink of returning and can be an anchor in field goal percentage, which is consistently high due to the fact he averages 6.0 attempts per game at the rim and converts 70.5 percent of those shots. Of the 50 players averaging at least 12.9 field goal attempts per game, Young is one of five players shooting better than 52 percent from the floor. He doesn't shoot 3-pointers, but the Sixers are best with him on the court, illustrated by his plus-5.9 rating, highest of anybody on the team and an indication he'll continue seeing big minutes upon his return.


Chauncey Billups, PG/SG, Los Angeles Clippers (59.7 percent owned): The Clippers are deep, and Chauncey is 36 years old and coming off an injured Achilles. That's a notoriously difficult injury from which to rebound, so don't expect him to have the type of impact he did when he was a top-30 fantasy player every season. But he'll nail 3s right off the bat, accrue some assists and steals, and he rarely misses a free throw. The loss in quickness he's seen due to aging and injury will likely force him to spot up more, which could bode well for his 3-point totals. Billups has transformed from fantasy cornerstone to an effective, low-damage guard who provides in a handful of categories and will have the occasional "Mr. Big Shot" night. Despite his limited playing time, he is worth owning in many formats if you need 3s.

Gordon Hayward, SG/SF, Utah Jazz (58.8 percent owned): He scored 17 points Tuesday in his first game back from his shoulder injury, and if his talent level and performance last season are any indication, Hayward is in line for a second half that warrants him being universally owned. After a disappointing first half which was marred by a decline in minutes and the shoulder injury that forced him to miss 10 games before the break, he's got all the tools to be a second-half fantasy darling with his ability to provide points, 3s, steals and assists, along with excellent blocks for a guard-eligible player. I also think he's a better shooter than his 42.8 percent from the floor suggests, as he's strangely shooting just 26.7 percent between 3-10 feet, a mark I see improving in the second half. His points and 3s are up despite playing fewer minutes than last season, and he's a low-turnover player, which adds value in 9-category leagues. Last season, he averaged 14.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.1 3s, 0.8 steals and 0.5 blocks per game after the All-Star break, including 16.1 points, 3.5 assists, 1.8 3s and 0.9 steals per game in 13 April contests. Hayward has the fantasy skill set to be a top-50 player; it'll all come down to how coach Tyrone Corbin uses him, but if he plays even a little more than he did in the first half, he should have considerable impact down the stretch.

Jason Thompson, PF/C, Sacramento Kings (33.4 percent owned): Thompson is heating up after a disappointing January in which he averaged just 9.0 points and 4.6 rebounds in 24.3 minutes per game, a stint that coincided with the best production of Thomas Robinson's young career. In February, however, Thompson is averaging 13.6 points on 54.8 percent shooting with 6.9 boards, 1.0 steals and 0.6 blocks in 32.3 minutes per game. He's scored in double figures in six straight after failing to do so in the five games prior to that and is averaging 16.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game in that span. Thompson isn't a supremely talented player and his advanced statistics haven't progressed this season, but he's the type who'll put up numbers if given minutes due to the fact he finishes well around the rim, has some range on his jumper, rebounds effectively and plays competent defense. Pay attention to how the addition of Patrick Patterson affects his playing time, but based on recent production,Thompson has posted stout statistics. As long as his minutes aren't cut significantly due to the trade, he's a helpful fantasy option.


Gerald Henderson, SG/SF, Charlotte Bobcats (31.9 percent owned): With Ben Gordon on the outs and Henderson much more in the Mike Dunlap mold, he's been scoring with consistency, hitting double digits in nine straight contests and averaging 15.4 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.1 steals per game in February. Although he lacks dazzling secondary statistics to complement his solid scoring ability, he does provide 1.0 steals, 0.5 3s and 0.4 blocks per game, and turns it over just 1.4 times per game, which boosts his values if you count them. The other promising aspect of his game is that some critical underlying statistics -- points, steals, blocks and 3-pointers per 48 minutes, true shooting percentage, Player Efficiency Rating -- have all increased in each of the past three seasons. He'll never be a fantasy superstar, but he's worth owning due to his ability to score consistently. Among the 83 healthy players averaging 13.0 or more points per game for the season, Henderson and doghouse-dweller Jordan Crawford are the only players owned in fewer than a third of ESPN leagues.

Mo Williams, PG/SG, Utah Jazz (25.4 percent owned): It's easy to forget how brilliantly Williams was playing before he broke his thumb, as he was averaging 12.0 points, 6.9 assists, 1.5 3-pointers and 0.8 steals while shooting 47.6 percent from the floor and 88.9 percent from the stripe in 11 December contests. Those are start-worthy numbers for any fantasy team, so even though it's unclear when he'll return -- sometime in March is the report -- he's worth stashing for a late-season boost. Nobody's stepped up their point guard game in his absence to the point where Williams' minutes will be reduced significantly, so I'd expect considerable contributions from Williams down the stretch. Strike now if he's available in your league, because if you wait for him to return, it'll be too late.

Al Harrington, PF, Orlando Magic (4.2 percent owned): He's missed the entire season, but with Glen Davis out for the season, the Magic are desperate for some scoring from the forward position, so Al should get buckets immediately upon his return. He averaged 14.2 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.6 3s and 0.9 steals per game coming off the bench for the Nuggets last season, and is an effective option if you're looking for some 3s and steals from the power forward position going forward. He should be back any day, and his return has been under the radar, so if you're looking for an impactful option, Harrington is available in most leagues.

Terrence Williams, SG/SF, Boston Celtics (0.1 percent owned): Could the stars align between a team in need and a talented player who has never found his niche? Williams bounced around the league before heading to China, where he was averaging 17.9 points, 4.1 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 1.8 3s., 1.2 steals and 0.5 blocks in 27 minutes per game in 29 games before signing a 10-day contract with Boston. His athleticism and talent level are bananas, and given his ability to handle the ball, distribute and hit the boards effectively for a guard, he theoretically replaces some of what the team is missing in Rajon Rondo's absence. Problem is, if dealing with theoretical situations involving Williams, he'd theoretically be an All-Star by now given his raw tools. Still, there's high upside and opportunity here, so he's worth a flyer based solely on that if you have a roster spot to spend on potential.
 

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[h=3]Will trade help Thomas Robinson?[/h]<cite class="byline">By Seth Landman, Special to ESPN.com

</cite>We had our first trade of the deadline season on Wednesday, but only one part of it needs to concern you for the moment in fantasy leagues, and that's the fact that the Houston Rockets got Thomas Robinson. We'll get to that in a moment, but here are the other details: First, the Rockets traded Patrick Patterson (who actually has had a bit of value this season, even if it is difficult to imagine what his role will be in Sacramento), Cole Aldrich, Toney Douglas and $1 million in cash for Robinson, Francisco Garcia and Tyler Honeycutt. Then the Rockets went ahead and shipped Marcus Morris to Phoenix for a second-round pick.

The fallout here is that the Rockets' power forward rotation probably now begins with Robinson, the fifth pick in the 2012 NBA draft. If you're confused about this, you're right. I understand that the Kings are looking to cut costs, but one would imagine there might be better ways of getting there than giving up on a top-5 pick just a few months into his career. Robinson has struggled so far, but given that the Rockets lead the league in pace by a mile, I like his chances to contribute -- at least as a rebounder -- for the remainder of the season in fantasy leagues. That's more than you can say for any of the other players included in these two deals.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]WEDNESDAY, FEB. 20[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Goran Dragic, Suns: 20 points (8-15 FG), 4 rebounds, 10 assists, 5 steals, 3 3-pointers versus Warriors
James Harden, Rockets: 46 points (14-19 FG, 7-8 3s, 11-12 FT), 8 rebounds, 6 assists versus Heat
Kyrie Irving, Cavaliers: 35 points (13-22 FG, 7-7 FT), 5 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals versus Hornets
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Carmelo Anthony, Knicks: 15 points (7-21 FG), 6 rebounds versus Pacers
Harrison Barnes, Warriors: 3 points (1-7 FG), 3 rebounds versus Suns
Kevin Garnett, Celtics: 12 points (6-14 FG), 4 rebounds versus Lakers



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking back[/h]
• All eyes in Cleveland are on Kyrie Irving, and that's great, because he's playing out of his mind and just had a pretty nice little All-Star break for himself. His backcourt mate is looking pretty good lately, too, if you haven't noticed. After a disastrous first two months of the season (at least in terms of efficiency), Dion Waiters is picking it up so far in February, cutting the 3-pointer out of his arsenal and shooting 52 percent from the floor. Waiters has the potential to be an elite attacker on the offensive end, so these are positive developments. If he ever improves that 3-point shot, he's got a chance to be special.

• After missing four games with a back injury, Larry Sanders has now strung together two really good games in a row for the Bucks against the Nets. He blocked 11 shots altogether in the home-and-home and averaged a double-double as well. He should be fine moving forward.

• I know we've been down this road a few times already this season, but Jeremy Lin has been really good lately, and it deserves a little bit of attention. Yes, James Harden's 46 points was the big story Wednesday night, but Lin threw up 29 points and eight assists in the win over the Thunder and is now averaging 17.0 points and 7.0 assists in his past five games. Lin's fantasy value has been high all season because of what he provides in steals, but he's got a ton of talent, and if everything's going well, he can be a top-30 fantasy player in the long term.

• Moe Harkless had the first 20-point game of his career for the Magic, and while his production hasn't been great at any point this season, he's certainly getting enough minutes that it's worth paying attention. Harkless is playing nearly 35 minutes per game so far in February, with modest averages of 10.6 points and 6.9 rebounds. Where he has a chance to be really good in fantasy leagues, however, is in steals and blocks. He's averaging 1.6 steals and 1.0 blocks per game this month, and those numbers are good enough that it would have been worth playing him every night if you knew they were coming. It's probably worth doing so now in deeper leagues.

[h=3]Looking ahead[/h]
• The last time the Heat faced the Bulls, it was a huge night for Carlos Boozer, who had 27 points and 12 rebounds in a Bulls win. There might be something to that: According to 82games.com, the Heat have given up a higher PER to opposing power forwards than they have to any other position. That could mean another big night for Boozer.

• The Clippers and Spurs both look to be pretty close to full strength for Thursday night's game, but they haven't played each other since November, so I'm not inclined to put much stock in the previous outcomes. One of the constants, however, was Eric Bledsoe, who averaged 12.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.5 steals in those two wins. Normally, I'd say you should get him into your lineup, but there's a chance he won't be a Clipper anymore by this evening. I say go for it: Things are more likely to stay the same than they are to change.
 

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Warriors stars look like good Fastbreak bets

Last week, I went into considerable detail regarding the remaining weekly schedules for NBA teams and how those schedules will affect using certain players for the rest of the season. You can use that as a reference going forward, but in Week 18 (the second week of Segment 2), you'll want to avoid players from the Boston Celtics and Portland Trail Blazers, because they play just twice. On the other hand, we'll get a four-game run out of guys on the Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, Detroit Pistons, Golden State Warriors, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Clippers, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Sacramento Kings, Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards.
Unfortunately, we aren't going to find any amazing bargains as a result of the trade deadline passing, since there was no activity of relevance. So despite hopes that guys like Al Horford, Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter and Earl Clark might get a bump from teammates being traded, they will remain frustratingly underused going forward. In fact, the one fantasy-relevant player who was traded, J.J. Redick, should see a significant dip in production after landing in a backcourt already packed with chucking guards (Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis).
That doesn't mean there aren't plenty of quality value plays out there, though. So let's check out some of the better Week 18 Fastbreak plays.
Guards
Stephen Curry (9.3), Golden State Warriors: Curry has averaged the fourth-most Fastbreak points at guard this season, yet eight other players will cost you more than his $9.3 million contract. That makes him a good deal any way you look at it. But there is an added bonus in using Curry: The Warriors play four games each of the next three weeks, which means you can lock him in at this price and cash out what should be a sizable market-value increase when that stretch is complete. The only concerns are the fact that all four games next week are on the road, where Curry has been less successful (e.g., 46.8 field goal percentage at home, 41.3 FG on the road), and his never-ending ankle issues. Still, that's a decent risk to take for his tremendous upside.
Jose Calderon (8.6), Detroit Pistons: John Wall costs the same $8.6 million this week, and he is certainly better-known than Calderon and carries bigger long-term upside. But for Week 18, Calderon should be the better play. Not only has he proved to be more reliable than Wall but also has shown more upside, especially since joining the 'Stones. Here are his past six Fastbreak performances: 16, 38, 27, 28, 13, 20. Compare that to Wall's past six games: 7, 20, 19, 19, 19, 4. Wall may end up being the better long-term play due to a scheduling advantage (Pistons play three games each of the next four weeks, while the Wiz play thrice next week before a month of four-game weeks), but I would roll out Calderon for Week 18 over Wall.
Isaiah Thomas (7.0), Sacramento Kings and Bradley Beal (6.9), Washington Wizards: These are two of my primary trade targets for the stretch run, because I love the upside each of them brings. Both have seen their roles increase in recent weeks, and I expect those roles will continue to grow as the season winds down. In Fastbreak, both remain super-cheap plays at about $7 million. Because they are young and still developing, there will be bumps in the road, but those are smoothed over in Fastbreak by those very affordable contracts.
Forwards
David Lee (9.6), Golden State Warriors: I recommended Lee last week, and he should continue to remain a solid and affordable play going forward. His high-volume/high-percentages game is built perfectly for points leagues, and, as mentioned above, the Warriors play four games each of the next three weeks. He is particularly useful this week, as LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony -- the top three Fastbreak-scoring forwards -- have three-game slates in Week 18. Of course, you can still make a case for sticking with James and Durant, because, based on averages this season, four games from Lee would get you 95.6 points, while three games from LeBron would give you 101.4 and three games from Durant would net you 98.4 points. However, you may be able to make up that difference in production by using the $1.4 million you'd save by signing Lee to shore up your other positions this week.
Rudy Gay (8.5), Toronto Raptors: Gay figures to be one of the better value plays for the remainder of the season because his mediocre production with the Grizzlies this season kept his market value at a reasonable rate. We should see a significant bump in his statistical output going forward with the Raps. Granted, that hasn't happened yet -- he's topped the 20-point mark just once in his past five games -- but I think it's inevitable. A favorable Week 18 schedule (WAS, CLE, IND, MIL) could help him turn the jets on, and it's hard to beat his upside in the $8.5 million price range.

Dirk Nowitzki (7.9), Dallas Mavericks: This season has been incredibly frustrating for the formerly formidable fantasy stud. He's battled injuries, age and a team surrounding him that, well, stinks. Not much of that has changed, but Nowitzki appears to be healthy at the moment and has shown some signs of life lately with a couple of 30-plus point Fastbreak games. I wouldn't recommend him as a long-term investment in standard points leagues, because I am concerned about his body holding up, but as a one-week Fastbreak filler at $7.9 million, he makes a lot of sense.Center
Nikola Vucevic (8.5), Orlando Magic: The Magic's big man remains a steady and reliable option for Fastbreak teams at center, as the Magic have four-game slates each of the next two weeks. The double-double machine has shown no signs of slowing down and has a favorable Week 18 schedule, primarily against beatable frontcourts (PHI, SAC, HOU, MEM). And at just $8.5 million, he has a very friendly contract that should help keep you under your salary cap.
Andrew Bogut (6.3), Golden State Warriors: Obviously, it's impossible to recommend Bogut without the obligatory caveats about the risks inherent in using one of the more fragile guys in the Association. But that beautifully cheap $6.3 million contract makes using him worth serious consideration. Bogut has been cleared to take part in back-to-back games and has had his minutes restrictions lifted, which means his production should continue to increase if his body can withstand the added workload. As I've noted a couple of times already, the Warriors have four games each of the next three weeks. Hypothetically, Bogut could be a solid long-term option at a price that's so cheap that you can counter his health risks by spending that cheddar to solidify your other positions.
 

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[h=1]Trade deadline fallout[/h][h=3]Jordan Crawford's value likely rises, J.J. Redick due for fall[/h]By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com


Boston Celtics send Leandro Barbosa and Jason Collins to Washington Wizards for Jordan Crawford

As the only Wizards fan I know, I spend a lot of time trying to rationalize the machinations of Ernie Grunfeld. But I can't think of the existential conditions that would justify this deal on any conceivable level of basketball sense, fantasy or reality.


The Wizards gave away a young and cheap (albeit disgruntled) source of instant offense (and bad defense) for a couple million dollars of cap relief. It reeks of old-school bad Bullets trades, in which promising young players were dealt for emotional reasons rather than basketball ones (i.e., Chris Webber for Mitch Richmond).

This is the thing about Jordan Crawford; he's not Nick Young. And I think a lot of people sort of lumped Crawford in with Young because he filled Young's old role. Crawford can actually play point guard in stretches, as evidenced by his competent run filling in for John Wall back in December.

The Celtics obviously need point guard help, even if it comes in the form of another combo guard such as Crawford. When called upon to start, Crawford can sustain 20-point production. He just won't be called on to do that in Boston.

No, Crawford most likely will get about 18 to 24 minutes, competing with Jason Terry for minutes at both guard positions. My guess is he will end up playing more at the 2 (where his defensive liabilities will be better disguised) and averaging nine to 11 points per game. He'll throw in 1 to 1.5 3-pointers, a couple of assists and half a steal.


The result should be a net positive for Crawford's value (considering all the DNPs he'd been racking up), and a slight downgrade for Terry, Courtney Lee and Avery Bradley.

The Wizards' rotation will be totally unaffected. Leandro Barbosa is out for the season with a torn ACL. Jason Collins will be in line for, at most, five to 10 minutes of mop-up duty per game.

Orlando Magic send J.J. Redick, Ish Smith and Gustavo Ayon to Milwaukee Bucks for Beno Udrih, Tobias Harris and Doron Lamb

Redick's value instantly diminishes in Milwaukee. He essentially goes from playing the Monta Ellis role for the Magic to backing up Monta Ellis for the Bucks.


Both Ellis and Brandon Jennings have averaged around 40 minutes per game this month. There are only 96 backcourt minutes to be had in an NBA game, and Udrih was struggling to log 20 minutes per night.


I'm aware Redick was brought in to play more minutes than Udrih. I think Redick will start with around 23-25 minutes a night, which should be good enough to keep him on the fantasy radar, probably in the 12 points per game range. Then we'll have to wait and see whether his role expands.

In the short term, Redick still should be good for 1.5 to 2 3-pointers per game, so he's worth hanging on to in medium-to-deep leagues. I'll be interested to see how the move affects Redick's assists output, which had become an underrated aspect of his fantasy portfolio. If Redick backs up at both positions -- Jennings is the only pure point guard on the roster -- he still could rack up some nice assists numbers.

Ayon's fantasy regression should continue in Milwaukee, where he'll be stuck behind Samuel Dalembert and Larry Sanders.

I've always been a big Udrih fan, and he might get an opportunity to play his way back onto the fantasy radar in Orlando. Redick's vacated minutes will be up for grabs, and it will be interesting to see whether Udrih or E'Twaun Moore takes advantage. Moore had a nice stretch to open the season (11 points per game in November) and can contribute across several categories.

Harris also has potential but will have to sap minutes away from Moe Harkless. Harkless has been playing well (10.6 points per game this month) and could be the most immediate fantasy beneficiary of Redick's departure.

Golden State Warriors send Charles Jenkins to Philadelphia 76ers and Jeremy Tyler to Atlanta Hawks (for draft picks)

Tyler had a nice little run at the end of last season, averaging 8.9 points and 5.9 rebounds per game during the final month. It's hard to see him playing his way into fantasy consideration with Atlanta, but I like his potential.

Jenkins also had a few brief breakout moments last season (including three late-season double-doubles), but he'll be lucky to snare five to eight minutes a game with the Sixers.

New York Knicks send a second-round draft pick to Oklahoma City Thunder for Ronnie Brewer


Brewer won't have a sizable impact in Oklahoma City -- bringing him in was a depth move -- but it should open up some more minutes for Iman Shumpert.

Orlando Magic send Josh McRoberts to Charlotte Bobcats for Hakim Warrick

Warrick is supposed to be waived, so McRoberts' leaving Orlando will open up more minutes for Andrew Nicholson. I like Nicholson as a mild breakout candidate over the last part of the season, at least until Glen Davis comes back in April.

McRoberts could get more playing time in Charlotte, but unless Byron Mullens or Bismack Biyombo goes down with an injury, he won't be a fantasy factor.

Portland Trail Blazers send rights to Giogos Printezis to Oklahoma City Thunder for Eric Maynor

This probably will siphon off a few minutes per game from Damian Lillard, who has been clocking close to 40 minutes lately.

Dallas Mavericks send Dahntay Jones to Atlanta Hawks for Anthony Morrow

No fantasy impact.

Phoenix Suns send Sebastian Telfair to Toronto Raptors for Hamed Haddadi and a second-round pick

No fantasy impact.

Miami Heat send Dexter Pittman and a second-round pick to Memphis Grizzlies for rights to Ricky Sanchez.

No fantasy impact.
 

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Trade deadline recap; Duncan's value

By Josh Whitling

The fantasy landscape wasn't altered as many expected by the trade deadline, as the most substantial deal on Thursday involved J.J. Redick going to the Milwaukee Bucks along with Gustavo Ayon and Ish Smith in exchange for Beno Udrih, Tobias Harris and Deron Lamb. Huzzah. Redick should see a decrease in value playing with such high-usage guards as Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis, so although he'll still put up nice 3-point totals with open looks and capable (but not always willing) passers around him, the 4.4 assists per game he was averaging with the Orlando Magic likely will plummet. Since Redick doesn't help in steals, either, he's now primarily a 3-point specialist and should be viewed as such from a fantasy standpoint. He'll still provide double-digit points and over two 3s per game, which make him worth starting in most formats, but his 21.54 usage rate will likely trend closer to the mid-teens with Jennings and Ellis both demanding the ball in their hands for most possessions. Redick's No. 58 ranking on the Player Rater should drift closer to the 75-100 range, still worth a spot in any format but no longer a sure-fire starter in every league. (For more on the fantasy impact of the trade deadline deals, check out John Cregan's wrapup.)

[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]THURSDAY, FEB. 21[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]LeBron James, Heat: 26 points (11-for-15 FG), 12 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals, 1 3-pointer
Dwyane Wade, Heat: 17 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks
Tony Parker, Spurs: 31 points (12-for-16 FG, 7-for-7 FT), 7 assists, 2 rebounds, 1 steal
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Luol Deng, Bulls: 6 points, 6 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks
Chris Paul, Clippers: 4 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 3 turnovers
Tim Duncan, Spurs: 9 points, 5 rebounds



<!-- end inline 1 -->
Tim Duncan scored just nine points with five rebounds in 16 minutes in the San Antonio Spurs' rout of the Los Angeles Clippers. Although his low minute total can largely be attributed to the game's lack of competitiveness, it's illogical to expect him to repeat his gaudy first-half statistics in the second half. Problem is, this is no secret, as most fantasy owners know that he'll be handled with kid gloves from here on out, so his trade value is low compared to his season totals. I wouldn't sell too low on Duncan, as he'll still be instrumental to the Spurs as they vie for playoff seeding, although if there is somebody who is willing to give top-25 value for him, shop him freely while his statistics are still sparkling.

Nate Robinson continues shouldering the load in the Chicago Bulls backcourt while Kirk Hinrich is out with a sore right elbow, and he scored a team-high 14 points in a game in which the Bulls were eviscerated by the Miami Heat. Robinson is averaging 14.3 points, 6.7 assists and 2.0 3s per game in February, his best month since last April, and he ranks No. 53 on the Player Rater over the past 15 days. He's an effective source of points, assists and 3s, especially with Hinrich out, and with the chance that Derrick Rose might not return this season, Robinson continues to be a solid fantasy guard.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
Derrick Williams' name had been involved in trade rumors all season, but he's still holding down Kevin Love's spot in Minnesota, and has actually been performing well recently, averaging 16.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.0 3s, 0.8 steals and 0.6 blocks per game over the past five. Those are actually valuable fantasy numbers, and his role in Minnesota seems to be locked in until Love returns sometime in mid-to late-March, making Williams a decent fantasy option until then.

With Jordan Crawford out of the picture in Washington, look for Bradley Beal's recent effectiveness to continue. Beal is averaging 21.0 points and 2.3 3s per game over his past three contests and should see 30-plus minutes per game from here on out. On Friday, he faces a Denver Nuggets team that ranks in the bottom 10 in opponent 3-point percentage, allowing foes to drain from long range at a 36.2 percent clip. Beal looks to be a fantasy mainstay for the next decade, with his ability to score, hit 3s and accrue both steals and blocks. He is line for improved second-half stats now that the shooting guard job is all his.

Jose Calderon faces a tough Indiana Pacers defense Friday, but he's still a must-start in every format based on his recent productivity. One of the most under-the-radar trends is his fantastic fantasy output since joining the Detroit Pistons, as he is averaging 14.6 points, 6.4 assists, 2.8 3s and 1.4 steals per game in February while shooting an impressive 54.9 percent from the floor and 88.3 percent from the stripe.

Calderon's hidden value lies in his low turnovers, as he's averaging just 1.8 per game on the season, making his 4.31 assist-to-turnover ratio second best in the league behind Chris Paul. He has legit top-30 value in turnover formats due to his ability to post fantastic point guard stats without the turnovers that typically come along with them, although his name doesn't often carry that type of perceived value. If his owner sees him as another mid-level point guard, feel free to buy Calderon, as his success with the Pistons should continue for the rest of the season.

Many new additions to teams won't be available for Friday's contests, so don't be too amped to glean information about players' new value just yet. It'll take a few games before rotations settle and players like Thomas Robinson, Beno Udrih, Jordan Crawford, Anthony Morrow, Patrick Patterson and Marcus Morris find their niche in their new digs, although nearly every name involved in Thursday's unremarkable trade deadline is only worth paying attention to in deeper leagues.

When all is settled, Udrih, Robinson, Crawford and Morrow should see increased value, so if you are in a format with more than 12 teams and marginal players like this are important, pay attention to playing time trends over the next week and pounce on some of the newly-surfaced deep league value.
 

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Weekly Dish: Fun with numbers

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com

With another month nearly in the books, it's time for another game of fun with numbers, this time focusing on recent trends and splits for the month of February.

60: 3-point field goal percentage for Dirk Nowitzki after 8 games in the month of February. The window to buy low on Dirk has officially closed after he's blown up for 21.6 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.0 steals, and 2.0 3-pointers over his past five games. Look for Dirk to be a top-20 fantasy performer the rest of the way, as he'll be doing everything he can to contribute to a Mavericks' run at the final playoff spot in the West.
[h=3]The Top 130[/h]Note: Brian McKitish's top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2012-13 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses.
1. Kevin Durant, OKC (1)
2. LeBron James, MIA (2)
3. Chris Paul, LAC (3)
4. Russell Westbrook, OKC (4)
5. James Harden, HOU (5)
6. Stephen Curry, GS (6)
7. Kyrie Irving, CLE (7)
8. Nicolas Batum, POR (8)
9. Kobe Bryant, LAL (9)
10. Carmelo Anthony, NY (10)
11. Dwyane Wade, MIA (13)
12. Serge Ibaka, OKC (11)
13. Paul George, IND (12)
14. Marc Gasol, MEM (14)
15. Rudy Gay, TOR (21)
16. Ty Lawson, DEN (22)
17. Josh Smith, ATL (15)
18. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (31)
19. Brook Lopez, BKN (17)
20. Jrue Holiday, PHI (16)
21. Brandon Jennings, MIL (19)
22. David Lee, GS (25)
23. Paul Pierce, BOS (18)
24. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR (20)
25. Tony Parker, SA (27)
26. Jeff Teague, ATL (30)
27. Blake Griffin, LAC (28)
28. Al Jefferson, UTAH (26)
29. Damian Lillard, POR (23)
30. John Wall, WSH (29)
31. Greg Monroe, DET (24)
32. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (37)
33. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (34)
34. Joakim Noah, CHI (39)
35. Deron Williams, BKN (33)
36. Mike Conley, MEM (35)
37. Anthony Davis, NO (36)
38. Kemba Walker, CHA (42)
39. Kevin Garnett, BOS (41)
40. Larry Sanders, MIL (47)
41. Ricky Rubio, MIN (50)
42. Al Horford, ATL (46)
43. Greivis Vasquez, NO (32)
44. Danilo Gallinari, DEN (38)
45. Chris Bosh, MIA (43)
46. Jose Calderon, DET (40)
47. Zach Randolph, MEM (44)
48. Ryan Anderson, NO (45)
49. Dwight Howard, LAL (59)
50. Kyle Lowry, TOR (48)
51. J.R. Smith, NY (49)
52. Kenneth Faried, DEN (51)
53. Nikola Vucevic, ORL (52)
54. Klay Thompson, GS (53)
55. George Hill, IND (55)
56. Tim Duncan, SA (56)
57. Paul Millsap, UTAH (58)
58. Goran Dragic, PHO (66)
59. Jarrett Jack, GS (78)
60. Monta Ellis, MIL (57)
61. O.J. Mayo, DAL (62)
62. Luol Deng, CHI (67)
63. Jameer Nelson, ORL (54)
64. Andrei Kirilenko, MIN (68)
65. Roy Hibbert, IND (65)
66. Wesley Matthews, POR (60)
67. Nikola Pekovic, MIN (69)
68. Tyreke Evans, SAC (70)
69. Bradley Beal, WSH (111)
70. Steve Nash, LAL (64)
71. Jeremy Lin, HOU (71)
72. Isaiah Thomas, SAC (93)
73. David West, IND (72)
74. Kevin Martin, OKC (73)
75. Andre Iguodala, DEN (61)
76. Tyson Chandler, NY (74)
77. Carlos Boozer, CHI (75)
78. Omer Asik, HOU (76)
79. Tristan Thompson, CLE (77)
80. Jamal Crawford, LAC (80)
81. Joe Johnson, BKN (81)
82. J.J. Hickson, POR (86)
83. Chandler Parsons, HOU (89)
84. Danny Granger, IND (91)
85. Amare Stoudemire, NY (63)
86. Raymond Felton, NY (83)
87. Kawhi Leonard, SA (82)
88. Darren Collison, DAL (88)
89. Evan Turner, PHI (90)
90. Earl Clark, LAL (92)
91. Nene Hilario, WSH (84)
92. Byron Mullens, CHA (95)
93. Amir Johnson, TOR (85)
94. Manu Ginobili, SA (99)
95. Jeff Green, BOS (117)
96. Thaddeus Young, PHI (114)
97. Emeka Okafor, WSH (108)
98. Daniel Green, SA (116)
99. DeMar DeRozan, TOR (97)
100. Eric Gordon, NO (101)
101. Jason Terry, BOS (103)
102. Shawn Marion, DAL (104)
103. Ramon Sessions, CHA (94)
104. Kyle Korver, ATL (87)
105. Arron Afflalo, ORL (106)
106. Metta World Peace, LAL (107)
107. Tiago Splitter, SA (98)
108. Kevin Love, MIN (109)
109. Nate Robinson, CHI (105)
110. Marcin Gortat, PHO (100)
111. Dion Waiters, CLE (115)
112. Gordon Hayward, UTAH (NR)
113. Gerald Henderson, CHA (118)
114. Moe Harkless, ORL (NR)
115. Gerald Wallace, BKN (119)
116. Carlos Delfino, HOU (NR)
117. Jason Thompson, SAC (NR)
118. Derrick Rose, CHI (122)
119. Vince Carter, DAL (125)
120. Thomas Robinson, HOU (NR)
121. Derrick Favors, UTAH (110)
122. Luke Ridnour, MIN (126)
123. Chauncey Billups, LAC (NR)
124. Tony Allen, MEM (NR)
125. Andre Drummond, DET (NR)
126. J.J. Redick, MIL (79)
127. Luis Scola, PHO (121)
128. JaVale McGee, DEN (129)
129. Rodney Stuckey, DET (NR)
130. Andrew Bynum, PHI (130)



14.1: Rebounds per 48 minutes for the Rockets' newly acquired rookie Thomas Robinson. That puts him in the same category as players like David Lee (14.2), Joakim Noah (14.2), Greg Monroe (14.0) and Al Jefferson (13.6) as a rebounder on a per-minute basis. Granted, Robinson is still far too raw to be mentioned in the same sentence as the aforementioned players, but it is clear that he has a ton of upside, particularly as a rebounder. Robinson didn't really get a fair shake in Sacramento with 4.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 0.5 steals and 0.4 rebounds in only 15.9 minutes per game, and although he hasn't been the most efficient player, fantasy owners should be encouraged by his per-minute numbers given that he'll see a big increase in minutes in the Rockets' rotations.

2.5: Steals plus blocks per game for Orlando Magic rookie Moe Harkless after 11 games in the month of February. Harkless is an intriguing fantasy pickup for the remainder of the season thanks to his defensive abilities and recent increase in minutes. He's quietly posted 11.5 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 1.0 blocks and 0.4 3-pointers in 35.4 minutes this month, and he should be locked into consistent minutes after the J.J. Redick trade.

35.6: Minutes per game for Wizards rookie Bradley Beal over his past five games. After averaging 15.1 points, 0.9 steals and 2.1 3-pointers in the month of January, Beal is proving to be an absolute fantasy stud in the making with 20.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 2.2 3-pointers over his past five contests. It is becoming more and more clear that Beal is going to have a monster seconld half if he continues to earn 35 minutes per night for the Wizards.

10.5: Field goal attempts per game for Jeff Green in the month of February. Green has slowly but surely become a major factor for the Celtics since Rajon Rondo's injury and is now a must-own fantasy player with 16.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 1.8 blocks and 1.1 3-pointers over his past 11 games. Green, who missed all of last season after undergoing heart surgery, was a terrific multi-category fantasy producer for the Oklahoma City Thunder just two years ago, so his recent outburst is not completely unexpected. Grab him now if he's still available in your league for any reason.

33.2: Minutes per game for Sacramento guard Isaiah Thomas in the month of February. Thomas was a popular selection on draft day but was unable to find consistent minutes in the Kings regular rotation until coming on strong at the end of January. Once his minutes stabilized, Thomas has shown us exactly why everyone was so excited about him coming into the season with 19.1 points, 4.7 assists and 1.7 3-pointers in the month of February.

40.5: 3-point field goal percentage for Ty Lawson after 10 games in the month of February. Lawson was making me look pretty silly for ranking him inside my top 20 at the start of the season, but he started to turn his season around in early January, and has been a top-5 player on our Player Rater over the past 30 days. Averaging 22.7 points, 8.7 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.5 3-pointers while shooting 50.7 percent from the floor and 82.7 percent from the line over his past 10 games, Lawson is primed to deliver a huge second half for his fantasy owners.

70.6: Blake Griffin's free throw percentage in the month of February, making this the second month in a row that he's shot better than 70 percent from the free throw line. Blake's points and rebounds may be slightly down this year, but his overall fantasy game is much improved thanks to his free throw percentage and increased effort on the defensive end. His 18.2 points, 9.1 boards, 3.6 assists, 1.0 steals and 57.1 percent shooting from the floor puts him 27th on our Player Rater over the past month.

9.2: Assists per game for Jeff Teague in the month of February. Teague's owners already know this, but he's been one of the top fantasy point guards in the league since Lou Williams' injury with 18.0 points, 9.2 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.4 3-pointers while shooting 50 percent from the floor and 89.7 percent from the line over his past 10 games. Teague is locked in at the moment, and he should be able to continue his hot streak for the rest of the season after the Hawks failed to make any moves at the trade deadline.

13: 3-point field goal attempts in 21 games for John Wall. Wall has played exceedingly well of late with 14.4 points, 8.7 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.8 blocks over his past 10 games, and while he's a terrific free throw shooter at 81.2 percent on the season, he still has two big fantasy deficiencies in his lack of 3-point shooting and poor field goal percentage. What's strange about Wall is that the overwhelming majority of his field goal attempts come from within the 3-point line, but he's still shooting just 41.1 percent on the season. It's nice to see that he understands his limitations from behind the arc, but he'll remain just outside the list of elite fantasy point guards until he improves either his field goal percentage or 3-point shooting.

2.5: Steals per game for Timberwolves point guard Ricky Rubio over his last 10 games. Rubio finally looks like he's fully recovered from last season's knee surgery, posting 13.5 points, 9.1 assists and 2.8 steals per game this month. Like John Wall, Rubio still has some major deficiencies in his fantasy repertoire, but we'll gladly overlook poor field goal percentage and lack of 3-pointers to obtain his big assist and steal numbers.
 

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[h=1]Roy Hibbert's season of regression[/h][h=3]Indiana Pacers' big man just can't find his scoring touch[/h]By Joe Kaiser | ESPN Insider

For a team like Indiana -- which ranks just 20th in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring 100.6 points per 100 possessions -- Danny Granger's highly anticipated season debut during the weekend couldn't have come at a better time.

Granted, just five teams have a better record than the Pacers (35-21), but for Frank Vogel's team to have a realistic chance of getting past the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference, let alone any of the juggernauts out West like the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, Memphis Grizzlies and the Los Angeles Clippers, it'll have to make big improvements on the offensive side of the ball.

Indeed, Miami and Oklahoma City are averaging nearly 10 points more than Indiana. If Granger can stay healthy, that should help, but equally important is for center Roy Hibbert to start playing with the offensive force that earned him a four-year, $58.37 million max contract with Indiana last summer.

A reliable offensive presence inside the paint in his first four years in the league, Hibbert has been anything but this season. The statistics are downright alarming.

Consider this: Paul George, David West and George Hill all picked up their scoring with Granger out. Hibbert, on the other hand, somehow managed to see his scoring dip from 12.8 ppg last season to 9.9 ppg this season -- almost three whole points. How is that even possible?
<offer>
The 7-foot-2 big man mentioned to the Indianapolis Star in December that a weakened right wrist was contributing to his offensive struggles, and whether that continues to plague him, or the pressure of the big contract is too much to handle, this isn't the same player Pacers fans have grown accustomed to seeing night in and night out.</offer>


Where Hibbert has been particularly poor is near the rim, which seems somewhat inexcusable for someone his size. Hibbert shot 56 percent or better from point-blank range in each of the previous three seasons, per hoopdata.com, yet this season that shot isn't falling nearly as often. He's all the way down to 46.9 percent, which even puts him behind much-maligned rookie guard Austin Rivers.

One big issue, according to Synergy, is that Hibbert has been particularly poor at offensive putbacks. In 151 such shot attempts this season, his 0.848 points per play ranks merely in the 14th percentile league-wide.


For the sake of comparison, this is an area where he averaged 1.124 points per play only a season ago and 1.076 PPP the one before that. So it isn't as though he's always just been hopeless near the rim. It's just become a lot worse this season.

Hibbert's offense has tailed off in other areas as well. In fact, it's virtually across the board. Synergy shows that the starting center has been just as bad in spot-up situations, and ranks no better than the 36th percentile in any offensive play type, including the post-up.

One play from Friday's game against Detroit played out like far too many have for Hibbert this season.

Leading 70-39 midway through the third quarter, Hill fed a pass to Hibbert on the left block. With Pistons rookie Viacheslav Kravtsov draped on his hip, Hibbert pivoted and swung the ball in front of him to face up, keeping his dribble. Then, he spun back to the baseline for an open lefty hook.

Previously, that's a shot that would go in. On this night, it sailed over the rim and failed to even draw iron, serving as a microcosm of how things have gone for the player and team this season; the Pacers keep on winning even while their key big man keeps on missing.

They've gotten away with it for now, but for the Pacers to become true contenders, they're going to need a better, more efficient game from Hibbert in the critical months ahead.
 

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Don't sell high on Al Horford

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com

With only a month and a half left in the season, let's take a walk around the league with some of the more notable storylines affecting the fantasy landscape the past week:

• Perhaps lost in my incessant support of Jeff Teague has been his teammate Al Horford's rise to dominance. Since the start of February, Horford is playing as well as any big man in the game, averaging 21.4 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.8 blocks per contest. Those numbers are good enough to put him sixth on our Player Rater the past 30 days. I've heard a lot of chatter about selling Horford high after this stretch, but those looking to sell high on the big man should consider that: 1) Horford historically has been a double-double machine, if you exclude last year's injury-marred season; and 2) This hot streak coincided with Lou Williams' injury. With Williams down, both Teague and Horford have taken their games to new heights, and I wouldn't be surprised if Horford continues to provide top 25-30 fantasy value the rest of the way.

• I still want to give it some time before I downgrade Brandon Jennings too much, but his numbers since the J.J. Redick trade are of concern. At just 9.5 points, 9.0 assists, 0.5 steals and 1.0 3-pointers in 34.2 minutes in four games since the trade, Jennings appears to be struggling to adjust to the addition of Redick in the lineup. What's most interesting about this scenario is that Monta Ellis has seen in uptick in production, with 20.0 points, 8.4 assists, 3.8 steals and 0.8 3-pointers per game in his past five contests. This isn't a trend that I expect to last too long, so Jennings makes for a solid buy-low candidate even though I've dropped him from 21st to 34th in my top-130 rankings

• Goran Dragic has had such an up-and-down season that it's hard to get terribly excited about him, but I'm certainly encouraged by his recent play, especially when considering that his minutes have jumped into the 35-38 range since the start of February. With 35.1 minutes per game that month, and 38.1 since the All-Star break, Dragic has posted 13.9 points, 9.1 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.3 3-pointers in his past 10 contests. Normally, I'd be hesitant about backing a player who's had such a roller-coaster season, but I'm pretty confident that he'll continue to play at a high level, as long as his minutes per game stay consistent.

• Averaging 18.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.8 blocks and 1.8 3-pointers since the All-Star break, Gordon Hayward looks primed to deliver yet another big second half. Hayward is the type of fantasy player who can be incredibly valuable thanks to his ability to contribute in multiple categories, but he's also the type of player who needs 30-plus minutes to realize his potential. He's hovered between 24 and 28 minutes for much of the season, but has seen an uptick in minutes with 31.4 per game since returning from a shoulder injury immediately following the All-Star break. Look for Hayward to get the 30-plus minutes he needs and remain a valuable fantasy contributor down the stretch.

• Don't look now, but the Kings have unleashed Marcus Thornton, who is averaging 29.2 minutes in his past five games. In that time, he's posted 22.2 points with 0.8 steals and 3.2 3-pointers per game. Thornton, who hasn't been relevant since mid-December due to inconsistent playing time, is actually a dynamic fantasy player when he's able to carve out quality minutes, thanks to his ability to knock down 3s and create steals in bunches. This is a guy who averaged 18.7 points, 1.4 steals and 2.1 3-pointers in 34.9 minutes last season, and I'm confident he'll remain a quality fantasy play as long as Keith Smart continues to give him ample playing time.

• Expect Manu Ginobili and Danny Green to step up their games with Tony Parker sidelined because of a sprained ankle for the next four weeks. Ginobili should take over as the primary distributor in Parker's absence, and Green has been playing high-level ball for the better part of a month, after averaging 15.1 points, 1.7 steals and 3.5 3-pointers in February. I'm also encouraged by Nando de Colo's 9.3 points, 4.3 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.0 3-pointers in three spot starts for the Spurs this season and consider him a slightly better pickup option than Cory Joseph, Patty Mills or Gary Neal, despite the fact that all four finished Sunday's game against the Pistons with 18 minutes or less.

• After O.J. Mayo averaged just 13.6 points, 0.9 steals and 1.4 3-pointers in seven games since the All-Star break, his owners have to be concerned that Dirk Nowitzki is finally starting to cut into his value. It's also possible that Mayo is simply still recovering from a minor ankle injury, but his shot attempts have dropped from 13.8 per game before the break to just 11.3 per game after, as Nowitzki has taken on a bigger role in the offense in recent action. Mayo still should be a solid fantasy contributor for the Mavs, but I fear that his days of posting 18 points with two 3-pointers per game may be over.

• Rajon Rondo's injury turned out to be a fantasy blessing in disguise for Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Jeff Green. Unfortunately, we cannot say the same for the Celtics backcourt. Most disappointing has been the play of Jason Terry, who should have seen increased value with Rondo sidelined but has posted just 9.2 points, 2.0 assists, 0.3 steals and 1.5 3-pointers in only 23.3 minutes since the All-Star break. At this point, if I'm looking for value in the Celtics' backcourt, I'm going with Avery Bradley, followed by Courtney Lee over Terry.

[h=3]The Top 130[/h]Note: Brian McKitish's top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2012-13 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses.
1. Kevin Durant, OKC (1)
2. LeBron James, MIA (2)
3. Chris Paul, LAC (3)
4. Russell Westbrook, OKC (4)
5. James Harden, HOU (5)
6. Stephen Curry, GS (6)
7. Nicolas Batum, POR (8)
8. Kobe Bryant, LAL (9)
9. Dwyane Wade, MIA (11)
10. Kyrie Irving, CLE (7)
11. Carmelo Anthony, NY (10)
12. Serge Ibaka, OKC (12)
13. Paul George, IND (13)
14. Marc Gasol, MEM (14)
15. Rudy Gay, TOR (15)
16. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (18)
17. Ty Lawson, DEN (16)
18. Josh Smith, ATL (17)
19. Brook Lopez, BKN (19)
20. Jrue Holiday, PHI (20)
21. Paul Pierce, BOS (23)
22. David Lee, GS (22)
23. Jeff Teague, ATL (26)
24. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR (24)
25. Joakim Noah, CHI (34)
26. Al Horford, ATL (42)
27. Blake Griffin, LAC (27)
28. Greg Monroe, DET (31)
29. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (32)
30. Larry Sanders, MIL (40)
31. Al Jefferson, UTAH (28)
32. Damian Lillard, POR (29)
33. Ricky Rubio, MIN (41)
34. Brandon Jennings, MIL (21)
35. Deron Williams, BKN (35)
36. John Wall, WSH (30)
37. Kemba Walker, CHA (38)
38. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (33)
39. Mike Conley, MEM (36)
40. Kevin Garnett, BOS (39)
41. Greivis Vasquez, NO (43)
42. Goran Dragic, PHO (58)
43. Dwight Howard, LAL (49)
44. Ryan Anderson, NO (48)
45. Zach Randolph, MEM (47)
46. Danilo Gallinari, DEN (44)
47. Chris Bosh, MIA (45)
48. Jose Calderon, DET (46)
49. Anthony Davis, NO (37)
50. Kyle Lowry, TOR (50)
51. J.R. Smith, NY (51)
52. Klay Thompson, GS (54)
53. Monta Ellis, MIL (60)
54. George Hill, IND (55)
55. Tim Duncan, SA (56)
56. Kenneth Faried, DEN (52)
57. Nikola Vucevic, ORL (53)
58. Paul Millsap, UTAH (57)
59. Jarrett Jack, GS (59)
60. Luol Deng, CHI (62)
61. Tyreke Evans, SAC (68)
62. Wesley Matthews, POR (66)
63. Nikola Pekovic, MIN (67)
64. Isaiah Thomas, SAC (72)
65. Tyson Chandler, NY (76)
66. Jameer Nelson, ORL (63)
67. Jeremy Lin, HOU (71)
68. Steve Nash, LAL (70)
69. David West, IND (73)
70. Andre Iguodala, DEN (75)
71. Carlos Boozer, CHI (77)
72. Omer Asik, HOU (78)
73. Roy Hibbert, IND (65)
74. Tristan Thompson, CLE (79)
75. Chandler Parsons, HOU (83)
76. O.J. Mayo, DAL (61)
77. J.J. Hickson, POR (82)
78. Jamal Crawford, LAC (80)
79. Bradley Beal, WSH (69)
80. Joe Johnson, BKN (81)
81. Kevin Martin, OKC (74)
82. Manu Ginobili, SA (94)
83. Daniel Green, SA (98)
84. Jeff Green, BOS (95)
85. Thaddeus Young, PHI (96)
86. Kawhi Leonard, SA (87)
87. Evan Turner, PHI (89)
88. Emeka Okafor, WSH (97)
89. Amare Stoudemire, NY (85)
90. Raymond Felton, NY (86)
91. Kevin Love, MIN (108)
92. Andrei Kirilenko, MIN (64)
93. Amir Johnson, TOR (93)
94. Darren Collison, DAL (88)
95. Arron Afflalo, ORL (105)
96. Gordon Hayward, UTAH (112)
97. Danny Granger, IND (84)
98. DeMar DeRozan, TOR (99)
99. Marcus Thornton, SAC (NR)
100. Eric Gordon, NO (100)
101. Carlos Delfino, HOU (116)
102. Shawn Marion, DAL (102)
103. Kyle Korver, ATL (104)
104. Nene Hilario, WSH (91)
105. Dion Waiters, CLE (111)
106. Marcin Gortat, PHO (110)
107. J.J. Redick, MIL (126)
108. Earl Clark, LAL (90)
109. Byron Mullens, CHA (92)
110. Metta World Peace, LAL (106)
111. Tiago Splitter, SA (107)
112. Nate Robinson, CHI (109)
113. Gerald Henderson, CHA (113)
114. Moe Harkless, ORL (114)
115. Luke Ridnour, MIN (122)
116. Derrick Williams, MIN (NR)
117. Brandon Knight, DET (NR)
118. Derrick Rose, CHI (118)
119. Vince Carter, DAL (119)
120. Tobias Harris, ORL (NR)
121. Derrick Favors, UTAH (121)
122. Ramon Sessions, CHA (103)
123. Tony Allen, MEM (124)
124. Andre Drummond, DET (125)
125. Jermaine O'Neal, PHO (NR)
126. Trevor Ariza, WSH (NR)
127. Rodney Stuckey, DET (129)
128. Nando de Colo, SA (NR)
129. Carl Landry, GS (NR)
130. Avery Bradley, BOS (NR)

 

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Who steps up with Tony Parker out?

By Tom Carpenter, ESPN.com

San Antonio Spurs fans lost their MVP candidate Friday when Tony Parker suffered a sprained ankle that is expected to cost him the next month of action. Those fans are lucky, because he should be back on the hardwood for the final couple of weeks of the regular season and at full strength for the postseason. The same cannot be said for fantasy junkies who had been riding his hot hand all season. Parker, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Kevin Durant are the only players in the NBA averaging at least 20 points while shooting better than 50 percent from the floor, so obviously there is no replacing Parker's production (averaging 21.0 points per game on 53.3 percent shooting, 82.9 percent free throw shooting and 7.6 assists per game) at this critical juncture of our fantasy season.

Cory Joseph, who was called up from the D-League Thursday, replaced Parker in the starting lineup Sunday against the Detroit Pistons but played only 18 minutes, though he scored 8 points and dished out 4 dimes. Gary Neal returned from his hamstring injury but played just 8 minutes, while Nando de Colo and Patty Mills chipped in another handful of minutes in the backcourt. It's hard to read too much into Sunday's stats, since the Spurs destroyed the Pistons by 39 points, but odds are that these four guys will share the point guard role, rendering all of them unreliable fantasy plays.

The guy I'm most intrigued by with Parker out is Kawhi Leonard, because he is capable of filling out a good portion of Parker's scoring with an excellent field goal percentage. Even with Parker in action last month, Leonard averaged 14.9 points per game and shot 46.8 percent from the field, and overall this season he is shooting 49.1 percent. Time will tell whether coach Gregg Popovich finally turns Leonard loose, but this could be the young swingman's chance to come up big for fantasy teams.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]SUNDAY, MARCH 3[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Chandler Parsons, Rockets: 32 points (12-13 FG), 6 3s, 3 rebounds, 3 assists versus Mavericks
Jason Thompson, Kings: 18 points (6-8 FG, 6-6 FT), 14 rebounds, 2 steals versus Bobcats
David West, Pacers: 31 points (11-18 FG, 9-9 FT), 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals versus Bulls
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Brandon Knight, Pistons: 8 points (3-14 FG, 1-3 FT), 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 turnovers versus Spurs
Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks: 8 points (2-8 FG), 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 turnovers versus Rockets
Kyle Singler, Pistons: 5 points (2-10 FG), 2 rebounds, 2 turnovers versus Spurs



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• Houston Rockets coach Kevin McHale is sticking to his plan of bringing Thomas Robinson along slowly, as the rookie continues to work off the bench following his trade from the Sacramento Kings. To his credit, though, Robinson had 10 points, 8 boards and 3 steals in just 18 minutes of action Sunday. Donatas Motiejunas started at power forward again and had 8 points, 8 boards, 3 assists and a steal. Motiejunas can be helpful in deep leagues and Robinson is worth keeping an eye on going forward.

• Joakim Noah followed up his epic triple-double (23 points, 21 boards, 11 blocks) with a couple of solid double-doubles this weekend (21-10, 14-10), while chipping in five dimes in each contest. His fantasy value can't get much higher than it is right now, which means it's the perfect time to move him if your trade deadline has not passed. Don't forget that he is dealing with plantar fasciitis, something that will only fully go away with rest. Keep him and you run the risk of him being sidelined in the waning weeks of the season.

• Tobias Harris cooled off Sunday when he missed 11 of his 14 field goal attempts and finished with six points and three boards. He had been red-hot since being acquired from the Milwaukee Bucks; in his four games leading into Sunday, he had scored at least 14 points and shot at least 50 percent; and he had 23 and 27 points in the past two games. Since the Magic are so thin on talent, he should continue to get as much run as he can handle and is worth snagging of waiver wires to see if he can maintain his solid play.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Bradley Beal sprained his left ankle late in Sunday's game. X-rays were negative, but we won't have a good read on his status for this week until he sees how much it swelled up overnight. Check for updates before setting your weekly lineups. If Beal misses Wednesday's game, Martell Webster, who had 16 points and 3 3s Sunday should get a bump in production.

• LeBron James tweaked his left knee Sunday, and though he finished the game, he will have the joint examined Monday morning. It sounds like he should be all right.

• Danny Granger left Sunday's game after just eight minutes due to soreness in his troublesome knee. He hasn't even reached the 19-minute mark in any of his five games thus far and has been thoroughly useless statistically. There is really no sense in holding onto him if there are other upside options on your waiver wire.

• Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap are battling ankle injuries; both skipped Friday's game as a result. Enes Kanter went off with 23 points (10-12 FG) and 22 boards, as Derrick Favors battled foul trouble. It sounds like both starters are getting closer to action, but it's not clear if they will be ready to ball Monday night. Kanter and Favors will be solid plug-in options if Big Al and Millsap sit again.

• Kyrie Irving could return from a three-game absence Monday after testing his knee out in practice Sunday. The Cavs play four times this week, so he may well get in three games even if he isn't ready to roll against the Knicks tonight.

• Since Anthony Davis didn't take part in the contact part of Sunday's practice, I'm skeptical about seeing the rookie back in action Monday evening. He's dealing with a bone bruise in his left shoulder and clearly his body is not holding up to the grind of an NBA campaign. Ryan Anderson started in place of Davis Friday and had 19 points and 13 boards.

• This weekend, Andrew Bynum finally admitted that he may not play this season and that surgery may be an option. In other words, if you are one of the 45.7 percent of teams in ESPN leagues that owns Bynum it is officially time to move on.

• There is a pretty good chance that Serge Ibaka will not be available when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Los Angeles Lakers Tuesday evening after essentially punching Blake Griffin in a bad spot Sunday. Although Homer Simpson might see the humor in that, David Stern surely won't. Still, the Thunder have a four-game week, so Ibaka should be in for at least three of those games.

[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
There are only three games Tuesday evening, so we don't have many options from which to choose. Fortunately, one of those games is the aforementioned battle between the Lakers and Thunder, so there are a number of stud options available. I would look outside of that contest to fill one of the forward spots with Paul Pierce against the Philadelphia 76ers, though. Doc Rivers has been riding him hard and he matches up well against the Sixers.
 

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[h=1]Late-rising rookies[/h][h=3]Harkless, Nicholson, Robinson, Kidd-Gilchrist poised to shine down the stretch[/h]By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

All these years of blindly following a numbingly woebegone franchise in the Washington Bullets/Wizards have made me a better fantasy owner.
Why? Because by Thanksgiving, I've already given up any hope of the team advancing to the preseason.

And I start counting the days. The days until Chad Ford's Lottery Mock Draft goes live on ESPN.com.

On average, I play the Mock Draft five to 10 minutes a day. It's good for me, both as an NBA fan and as a fantasy basketball enthusiast.

If you start reading Ford's articles, and start following draft coverage in general, you'll begin to accrue data on how certain players might perform by the end of the following season.



In real-life NBA terms, rookies represent hope. (Nerlens Noel would look awfully nice running the floor with John Wall and Bradley Beal.)

In fantasy terms, rookies represent upside.

Every season, multiple rookies suddenly start leaping up the Player Rater after All-Star Weekend. And it's not just the marquee top picks, all of whom are usually scarfed up in the draft. Rookie risers can come from any stage in the NBA draft (or from overseas).

Plucking a soon-to-be hot rookie off the wire is your best chance at making a late-season improvement to your team. And coming off the wire, those rookies don't cost you anything but a roster spot.

Last January, Klay Thompson averaged 7.7 points, 1.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.5 steals and 1.4 3-pointers per game. In April, he averaged 18.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 steals and 2.1 3-pointers. He doubled his production in two months.

Kenneth Faried went from 6.0 points and 5.0 rebounds to 11.6 points and 9.1 rebounds.

Isaiah Thomas went from 7.6 points, 1.0 3-pointers, 2.6 assists and a 41 percent field goal percentage to 14.7 points, 1.7 3-pointers, 5.4 assists and a 47 percent field goal percentage.

And Chandler Parsons went from 7.0 points and a .211 3-point percentage to 11.0 points and a .396 3-point percentage.

You get the picture. Let's throw out the obvious names (Anthony Davis, Bradley Beal, Damian Lillard, Dion Waiters) and take a look at some other non-top picks who look primed for a late surge.

i

Harkless

1. Moe Harkless, SF, Orlando Magic (Player Rater number over the past 15 days: 5.21): Harkless is an example of how deadline trades (and banned-substance suspensions) can open up opportunities for promising rookies. Harkless is riding a string of nine straight double-digit games, but his fantasy appeal goes way deeper than points.

Harkless possesses what I call 1+1+1 potential: He's capable of averaging a 3-pointer, a steal and a block per game. With Hedo Turkoglu out until the end of the month, Harkless should get every opportunity to build some numerical momentum and grow as a fantasy factor.

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Nicholson

2. Andrew Nicholson, PF, Orlando Magic (PR15: 2.90): Nicholson also has benefited from the J.J. Redick trade. With Gustavo Ayon shipped off as a throw-in, and Glen Davis' injury, Nicholson suddenly holds a pathway to major minutes. A steady diet of minutes is an essential condition for a late-season rookie bloom, and Nicholson should average 23 to 27 minutes per game until Davis returns.

I've been following Nicholson since he came to Orlando, because his scouting report brimmed with Ryan Anderson potential. Nicholson hit 43 percent of his 3-pointers at St. Bonaventure last season, and my hope was that Nicholson would eventually be called upon to fill Anderson's role.

The problem is that Nicholson has been following more of the David West playbook: lots of offensive efficiency, a good midrange game, but no 3-point attempts. There's nothing wrong with being the next David West. But if Nicholson starts to stretch out his range and improves his rebounding, he'll become a fantasy forward to be reckoned with.

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Kidd-Gilchrist

3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Charlotte Bobcats (PR15: 1.36): I know, I know, we said no top picks. But MKG is a special case, a high lottery pick who specializes in intangibles. Unfortunately, most fantasy leagues don't feature "likability" as a category. His season averages of 9.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, 0.7 steals and a block don't scream "No. 2 pick overall."

But Kidd-Gilchrist is getting a lot of one thing: minutes. And I do believe that over time, MKG will develop into a more than serviceable fantasy player. As for this season, I like Kidd-Gilchrist because of his defensive numbers and rebounding. He could easily average a steal and a block per game in March and April. The key will be if he logs more lines like the double-double he posted Monday night (17 points, 10 rebounds).

If MKG starts to edge into 13-point, 7-rebound territory, he'll start to look like a smart endgame pickup as long as the defensive numbers stay put.

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Barnes

4. Harrison Barnes, SF, Golden State Warriors (PR15: -0.62): Barnes' seasonal averages (9.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 0.7 3s, 0.7 steals) aren't too far off from Kidd-Gilchrist's. Like MKG, Barnes is getting steady minutes (25.7 per game), but we're all sort of waiting for a light to go on. With Barnes, the issue is passivity on offense and an overwillingess to pass up his own shot.

Barnes has the potential to bring points, 3s, steals and the occasional block to the table. He's probably the victim of being on an offensively loaded squad that doesn't need his production to arrive ahead of schedule. But Barnes is in a good spot to go on a late-season mini-tear. If he starts to heat up, don't hesitate to grab him.

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Robinson

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Motiejunas

5. Thomas Robinson/Donatas Motiejunas, PF, Houston Rockets (PR15: -2.71/-4.66): As I've mentioned before, the power forward slot in Houston is fertile fantasy territory thanks to the Rockets' high-pace system. I'd been excited about Robinson's post-trade upside, but it's been the other rookie, Motiejunas, who has really flashed major fantasy chops as of late.

Motiejunas is sort of the rookie I thought Andrew Nicholson could be: a stretch 4 with solid 3-point production and rebounding. Over his past five games, he has posted 11.6 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game, shooting a crisp 58 percent from the floor.

Robinson looks like he will be worked in slowly, but if he keeps putting up numbers like he had against the Dallas Mavericks on Monday (10 points, 8 rebounds, 3 steals), this could turn into a time-share.

For now, I'm hoping Motiejunas retains the upper hand in this rotation.

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Drummond

6. Andre Drummond, PF/C, Detroit Pistons (PR15: N/A): Don't forget about this guy. I guarantee you won't be able to come next fall, when Drummond will be one of the most-hyped sleepers in next season's drafts. As for now, Drummond's projected return from his back injury is all over the map. It could be within a week, it could be mid-to-late March.

Drummond could be the late-season addition who wins a fantasy playoff series or two because of his mega-elite blocks potential. By the time he comes back, the Pistons will be firmly ensconced in pingpong ball territory, so Drummond should step into decent minutes as soon as his conditioning returns.

And Drummond isn't just about blocks. Don't forget Drummond had already racked up eight double-doubles before he went down in early February. The only question is if he can play his way back into 22 to 24 minutes per night.

Other rookies with late-season potential: Jonas Valanciunas, C, Toronto Raptors; Tyler Zeller, C, Cleveland Cavaliers; Kyle Singler, SF, Detroit Pistons, Alexey Shved, PG/SG, Minnesota Timberwolves; Brian Roberts, PG, New Orleans Hornets; John Henson, PF, Milwaukee Bucks; Nando de Colo, PG, San Antonio Spurs.
 

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Bucks backcourt finds way to produce

By Tom Carpenter, ESPN.com

When the Milwaukee Bucks acquired J.J. Redick from the Orlando Magic, it seemed like one of the worst destinations possible; not just for Redick, who joined a ball-hogging backcourt, but also for ball-hoggers Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis. Upon further examination, though, I thought they would simply tighten up their rotation and run small ball, which would give enough minutes and touches for all three to flourish.

Although we haven't seen statistical consistency from the three guards, overall each of them has come up with some pretty nice numbers. Monday night was a perfect example of the statistical array we can expect from the trio, as Jennings had 20 points (8-14 FG), 4 3s, 17 dimes and 3 steals, Ellis had 34 points (15-21 FG), 1 3, 3 dimes and 4 steals, while Redick came up with 17 points (7-14 FG), 3 3s, 1 dime and 1 steal.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]MONDAY, MARCH 4[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Amir Johnson, Raptors: 23 points (10-10 FG), 15 rebounds and 2 blocks against the Warriors
Derrick Favors, Jazz: 23 points (11-20 FG), 15 boards, 1 steal and 1 block versus the Bucks
Brandon Jennings, Bucks: 20 points (8-14 FG), 4 3s, 17 assists, 3 turnovers and 3 steals against the Jazz
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Jonas Valanciunas, Raptors: 3 points (1-7 FG), 5 rebounds and 4 fouls in 16 minutes versus the Warriors
Earl Watson, Jazz: 0 points (0-4 FG), 4 boards, 2 dimes and 4 turnovers against the Bucks
J.J. Barea, Wolves: 4 points (1-11 FG, 1-4 3s), 4 boards and 4 assists versus the Heat



<!-- end inline 1 -->
Not surprisingly, in his five games with the Bucks, Redick has had a smaller role than he had with the Magic. That means his assist production has dwindled significantly. However, he is still averaging 10.8 field goal attempts and 5.4 3-point attempts per game, so his scoring (15.4 PPG) and 3-point production (2.0) remain solid.

With Redick earning a lot of shots, Jennings has taken fewer field goal attempts (16.5 per game this season, 11.2 since Redick arrived) and scored less (9.4 PPG in the four games leading into Monday's 20 points), but he has embraced the point guard role the past couple of games (19 dimes Saturday, 17 last night).

Meanwhile, Ellis has flourished across the board with big scoring games (22, 27, 23 and 34 points), dishing games (9, 13 assists) and defensive games (6 steals twice).

All three have a lot for which to play, as each can become a free agent this summer, and I think we should see more of the same from them going forward with Jennings the primary disher, Ellis the primary scorer and Redick a solid 3-point threat.

[h=3]Looking back[/h]
• Anthony Davis had 17 points (6-13 FG), 15 boards and 4 blocks in his return from a shoulder injury Monday. That's the third stretch of games he has missed and he has toughed it out through other injuries. There will be some concern entering next season that he may be injury-prone, but hopefully he's just getting used to the NBA grind and will come back physically stronger next season and avoid regular trips to the infirmary.

• The Cleveland Cavaliers got Kyrie Irving back from a three-game absence Monday. His sore knee didn't slow him down at all, as he came up with 22 points (9-20 FG), 2 3s, 5 rebounds and 6 assists versus the New York Knicks. So long as he can stay healthy, he should be set for a huge finish to the fantasy hoops season.

• Andrew Bogut returned from his back injury Monday and played almost 30 minutes, though he failed to do anything statistically significant (4 points, 8 boards and 1 block). Due to his inability to stay on the court, he's among the more frustrating players in fantasy, especially because he can be a true fantasy stud in those rare moments when he is actually healthy. The Golden State Warriors' schedule down the stretch isn't going to help, either, because after rolling four times this week and next, they finish out with three straight weeks of three games. You're probably better off letting someone else deal with his headache of a fantasy game.

• E'Twaun Moore returned to the pine Monday because Jameer Nelson returned from his knee injury. The latter looked fine, scoring 15 points (6-15 FG) to go with 2 3s and 7 assists, while the former had just 7 points in 17 minutes as a reserve. Expect more of the same from both going forward.

[h=3]Looking ahead[/h]
• Carmelo Anthony left Monday's game early because of a sore knee. He said the joint has been bothering him for some time and that a recent MRI revealed nothing of note. That having been said, he may well skip Wednesday's tilt with the Detroit Pistons to rest it. The New York Knicks play four games every week the rest of the way, so it's possible we may see him sit out a number of games down the stretch if the joint continues to be an issue. This could be Amar'e Stoudemire's chance to prove he can still make a big impact for the Knicks. He played a season-high 32 minutes, took a season-high 15 shots (hitting 10 of them) and matched a season-high 22 points Monday.

• Byron Mullens failed to record a stat in three minutes of action before being pulled because of a sore knee Monday. He said it wouldn't be a long-term issue, but he has had trouble staying healthy this season, so there's no doubt that we should be concerned. Josh McRoberts should get some extra run if Mullens sits again, but an extended absence could help Michael Kidd-Gilchrist come up big down the stretch. The rookie had 17 points (8-11 FG) and 10 boards Monday.

• Nick Young will remain sidelined tonight, and it's not clear when he will return from his knee injury. Dorrell Wright will start in Young's stead Tuesday.

• The Utah Jazz could get Mo Williams back in the mix as soon as Wednesday. He has been recovering from thumb surgery and should be added in all leagues for his potential in the waning weeks of the regular season.

• Al Harrington reached double digits (10 points) Monday for the first time since returning to action five games ago. He is worth keeping an eye on as the season winds down because of his ability to score, hit 3s and rebound, especially on a team as thin on talent as the Orlando Magic.

[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
Just about everybody will hit the hardwood Wednesday evening, so there is no shortage of high-end options. Unfortunately, two of the top centers, Tim Duncan and Joakim Noah, will face each other. While both are fully capable of racking up big stats anyway, I'd rather roll with the smoking-hot Al Horford, who has a much friendlier matchup against the nonexistent Philadelphia 76ers frontcourt. He has piled up at least 22 Fastbreak points in 10 straight games and should have no trouble topping that number Wednesday.
 

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[h=1]Underrated production[/h][h=3]Griffin, Sanders, Korver, Marion putting up solid stats at relative bargain[/h]
By Seth Landman | Special to ESPN.com

After beginning the season with an ungodly amount of hoopla and fanfare, things have cooled off a bit around the Brooklyn Nets. They're middle of the road in just about every way you can imagine. They rank right around the middle of the pack in both offensive and defensive efficiency, they score one-tenth of a point more per game than they give up, and they aren't exactly sporting much star power in comparison with the league's other marquee teams.

Most important, the guy who was supposed to be their best player just hasn't been up to the task. Deron Williams' supremacy has been usurped by a shockingly good season out of Brook Lopez (now in the top five in the entire league in PER!), and anyone who used a first-round pick on Williams in fantasy leagues is likely in the cellar of the standings at this point.

I was thinking about Deron Williams the other day, wondering what happened to him, when I pulled up the Player Rater on my browser and saw that he's hovering right around the top 20 overall this season. Obviously, for a guy with an average draft position (ADP) of 5.3, that's a major disappointment. On the other hand, I happily dealt Deron Williams for Pau Gasol in one of my leagues before the big man got injured, and that was during one of the worst stretches of the season for Pau. It is clear that Deron's stock had taken a major hit.

Ultimately, that's how we've arrived at a place where Deron Williams has now become underrated in fantasy leagues. It can happen quickly sometimes, but that's what we're dealing with. For the month of February, Williams averaged a season high 18.7 points including 2.5 made 3-pointers per game. He also chipped in 7.1 assists and shot 86.4 percent from the foul line. Those are monster numbers, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Williams -- still just 28 years of age -- kept them up for the rest of the season.

Who are some other players you might be underrating as we move into the home stretch of the 2012-13 NBA season? Glad you asked.

(Ranking based on per game averages in parentheses)

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Griffin

Blake Griffin, PF, Los Angeles Clippers (33): Griffin hasn't been a top-50 fantasy player before, which could come as a surprise given the fact that he's universally considered one of the 15 or so best basketball players in the world. The problem has always been his free throw shooting; after shooting just 64 percent from the line as a rookie, he plummeted to 52 percent his second time around. This year, he's up to 66 percent, and while that's nothing to write home about, when you couple it with the fact that he's shooting fewer free throws, it starts to look like a slight weakness instead of a deal-breaker for carrying him on your roster.

Griffin is doing one other thing that's increasing his fantasy value by leaps and bounds: He's getting a ton of steals. He's racking up 1.4 steals per game, which might not sound like much until I point out that it is first among players eligible only at power forward (among all players eligible at the position, he's still an impressive seventh on the Player Rater). If Griffin can boost his free throw shooting just a little bit more next season, we could have a new contender for the top 20 on our hands.

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Sanders

Larry Sanders, PF/C, Milwaukee Bucks (37): Now among the most popular players in the league among the NBA League Pass crowd, Sanders came out of nowhere this season. Consider that, in his scouting report on Sanders heading into this season on ESPN.com, John Hollinger wrote that Sanders was a "below-average rebounder." All we knew about Sanders coming into this season was that he could dunk and block shots. He has done those things, particularly the latter, amazingly well.

What makes him special, though, is actually his combination of rebounding and blocking shots. Amazingly, he's the only active player on the list of guys who have averaged at least nine rebounds and three blocks for a season before the age of 25 (assuming Sanders keeps those numbers up the rest of the way). That list is populated by names such as David Robinson, Shaquille O'Neal, etc. While Sanders isn't on the level of those guys offensively, he's still a terrifically valuable fantasy player. The only wart on his fantasy résumé is that he's shooting 58.5 percent from the line, but that's up from last season's 47.4 percent, so maybe there's room for improvement. It will be interesting to see whether Sanders gets drafted ahead of guys such as Al Jefferson and DeMarcus Cousins heading into next season.

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Korver

Kyle Korver, SG/SF, Atlanta Hawks (59): You're already shocked. Isn't it crazy that Korver is rated this high on the Player Rater? I look at this list all the time, and even I am almost always surprised when I see his name this high. That's because it's easy to think of Korver as just a guy who makes a lot of 3s. Obviously, there's more to it than that. He's a little banged up right now -- questionable for Wednesday night's game against the Philadelphia 76ers after missing Monday night's game against the Denver Nuggets -- so I'll go easy on the praise, but let's start with the fact that he's posting a positive value in every single category on the Player Rater. He gets 1.0 steals per game; not great, but it helps. It's the same with his 0.5 blocks, and it's the same with his 45.7 percent shooting from the floor (which is extremely impressive and valuable when you consider that 71 percent of his field goal attempts are 3-pointers). The list goes on.

As an impending free agent, Korver's status for next season is unclear, but if he winds up back on the Hawks as a starter again, you can be sure his average draft position will be a lot higher than 140. Amazingly, he's still actually available in quite a few leagues, which I'll just take as proof that no one in those leagues is actually checking rosters anymore.

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Marion

Shawn Marion, SF/PF, Dallas Mavericks (72): Once a formidable fantasy force, Marion's fantasy goodness seems to have become a tad overlooked. Nothing about his numbers stands out, but he does a lot of things that will help you in fantasy leagues. His best categories are rebounding (8.0 per game is pretty exciting if you're using him as a small forward), and field goal percentage (50 percent from the floor is always a good thing). Still, he chips in enough to be of some value nearly all the way across the board. The only category in which he's a negative is 3-point shooting: He's made only 18 3s so far this season, and isn't likely to rebound to his Phoenix levels any time soon.

Marion's ADP was 117.4, and given last season's numbers, that was probably fair, but he's 34 years old, not 40, so he probably has at least one or two seasons left in the tank, and he's signed with the Mavericks through next season, so keep him in mind when you're nearing the end of next season's draft and just want a guy who will chip in a little here and there without hurting your team at all.
 

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Sanders swatting way to stardom

Milwaukee's young center has become one of the best defenders in the NBA


By Justin Verrier | ESPN.com

Larry Sanders had the look down long before the rulebook.
The long, spidery limbs. The height to tower over his peers. The irrepressible fire that spilled out when the competition started. Though his interests lay more in art than sports, Sanders fit the ideal of a basketball player even as a teenager. So despite scant experience, he was urged by Port St. Lucie (Fla.) High School coaches to join the basketball team after transferring there as a sophomore.
In his debut for the junior varsity team -- his first game of organized basketball -- Sanders scored on the wrong basket. He didn't realize the teams had changed sides after halftime.
"[Defense] was the only thing I could do," he says now. "Just run and try to block shots."
But what he lacked in production was always outweighed by potential. It's what led him to a rising Virginia Commonwealth University program that has become an NCAA tournament mainstay, and later to the Milwaukee Bucks, as the 15th overall pick in the 2010 NBA draft.
Now in his third professional season, things are finally adding up; through 52 games, the 6-11 center with the 7-7 wingspan has blocked 168 shots in just 26.4 minutes a game, more on average than any player in the league. But it's the looks he gets from other players these days that affirm he belongs.
"It's more when I see the opponents dribbling into the paint and dribble out," he says. "Or guards who are known for penetrating or scoring kind of thinking twice. Y'know, passing it out. I guess the outcome from the block. That's more of a feeling for me.
"Seeing that guys are aware and looking over their shoulders, pump-faking. All of those things that come after the block, I think I enjoy."

<CENTER>
</CENTER>After his first two seasons in Milwaukee, Sanders' potential had turned on him. He was averaging 4 points, 3.1 rebounds and 1.5 blocks for his career in sparse minutes with a player efficiency rating south of 13. His impact on defense was clear -- the Bucks allowed 11.5 fewer points per 100 possessions in Sanders' sophomore season, the lockout-shortened 2011-12 -- but a foul rate that led the league by a large margin and a questionable shot selection limited his value and his playing time.

Over that same span, he would watch the Bucks add Ekpe Udoh and rookie John Henson -- young, long and lanky power forward/centers in the same mold as Sanders -- to their already crowded frontcourt. A forgettable second summer-league stint also left some "scratching their heads," according to interim coach Jim Boylan.
The high ceiling that once made Sanders so appealing was beginning to look more like an unreachable brass ring.
Then training camp happened.
"I had never seen anybody transform like that from the summertime, where he didn't have a great summer league. We were a little bit discouraged," says Boylan, who took over as head coach for Scott Skiles 32 games into this season. "But he came back ready to go and all of a sudden -- boom -- he was one of our best players in training camp. It was kind of surprising. But it was great to see because the things that he can do really affect the outcome of the game."
Improved physical conditioning made a big difference, Boylan says. As did Sanders' wife, son and mother moving to Milwaukee, which gave him the off-the-court comfort he yearned for. But there's been significant maturity in the 24-year-old's game, as well.
While his aggressiveness still leads to more fouls than all but two players in the league (Toronto's Amir Johnson and the L.A. Lakers' Dwight Howard), Sanders has largely eschewed his attempt at becoming a pick-and-pop big man and focused his offensive efforts toward the paint; after attempting slightly more shots from 16-23 feet than he did at the rim as a rookie, more than half of Sanders' 7.2 attempts per game now come at the rim, according to HoopData. His PER has also spiked to 18.71, 20th-best among centers.
As a result, the Bucks have more than doubled his minute allotment from last season and are now reaping the benefits of his league-leading 8.9 block percentage, a number that actually mirrors his 2011-12 rate. Ranked 17th in defensive efficiency last season, Milwaukee is now ninth in the NBA.
"I think for a while Larry was trying to search out who he was as a player," Boylan said. "I think he's finally discovered that."

<CENTER>
</CENTER>Finding an edge has never been a problem for Sanders.
"I know I'm going to get angry," he says.

Harnessing it, though, hasn't always been as easy.
"I try to stay in my peaceful place," he says.
Outside a basketball setting, Sanders is soft-spoken and gentle. He's an artist who recently beamed over "some really cool" new pens he got. On his Twitter profile, which is attributed to the name "Nappy Gilmore," he links to a personal Facebook account rather than a fan page run by a media team. He even has a small part in an upcoming comedy film littered with Hollywood stars.
But his intensity can take a hold of him at times. In addition to his high foul rate, Sanders was hit with seven technical fouls last season, tied for 16th in the league despite his limited playing time. He was also ejected from two games, most memorably after running over Indiana's Danny Granger and then wildly chasing after him.
"People think I'm angry or mad or want to fight and stuff. That's not me," says Sanders, who despite his drop in fouls per 36 minutes (to a still-high 4.9) has seven technicals and two ejections again this season. "I just like to compete. I don't really like to be disrespected, because I don't really go out of my way to really disrespect anybody else. So when I get it sometimes I take it a little too personal."
Sanders says he tries to treat each game like a meditation, clearing his mind and focusing on the details of his tasks. But it's a fine line, one he can't walk away from. Like most shot-blocking big men, the aggressive nature that may hinder his game is what fuels it.
"You're not going to change that about him. That's who he is," said Tony Pujol, the University of Alabama assistant coach who led the recruiting of Sanders at VCU. "But if you take some of that emotion out of Larry, you're taking away his competitiveness.
"I saw that in high school, I saw that in college. He doesn't like to lose in anything. You could be playing hopscotch; he's going to want to beat your head in. That's just the way he is."

<CENTER>
</CENTER>Sanders still sneaks up on opponents.
As the blocks continue to come -- oftentimes in clumps of five or six, or even 10, like in his triple-double performance against the Timberwolves to close out November -- teams are beginning to account for his presence on the floor, looking to avoid the length and quickness that make him appear extraterrestrial. But it's hard to account for a threat that, even when he's right in front of you, still comes out of nowhere.
Sanders doesn't overwhelm opponents with size and force. He almost sets a trap on shooters, allowing them to tee up their shot or go to work in the post, and then closes the gap quicker than they expect.


His victims tend to tell the story afterward: I didn't even see him coming.
But Sanders sure did.
"I always think I'm gonna get it before I get it," he says. "Even the ones I don't get, I feel like I could've gotten 'em or I should've gotten 'em."
His success this season is more than just the gaudy block totals. A recent study presented at last weekend's MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference by Kirk Goldsberry and Eric Weiss found Sanders to be one of the most effective defenders in the league in reducing opponents' efficiency when he's within 5 feet of the basket. Based on spatial analysis data, which they admit is still in its early stages of development, opponents shoot 38.4 percent against Sanders at close range, which ranks him second to only Roy Hibbert, by two-tenths of a point.
In Layman's: According to their findings, the Bucks center is one of the best interior defenders in the NBA.
"When I first started playing basketball, the first thing I did was play defense," Sanders says. "I've kind of always hung my hat on my defensive abilities. I didn't think they would take me to this point, though."

 

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What Google reveals about stars

By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider

With a resurgent season at age 36, San Antonio Spurs star Tim Duncan continues to burnish a résumé that will make him an inner-circle Hall of Famer when he finally decides to call it quits. Duncan is now fifth on the league's all-time rebounding leaderboard and will soon pass Hakeem Olajuwon for fourth. He's eighth in blocks and has a chance to become the fifth NBA player with at least 3,000 in his career.

Add in a pair of MVP trophies and four championships and Duncan's legacy is already secure. Depending on whether he's considered a center or not, he already has a case as the greatest power forward in NBA history. Still, his greatness -- like his team's -- remains underappreciated.


Labels are hard to shake in the NBA. No matter what they do, Duncan and the Spurs -- who face the Chicago Bulls tonight on ESPN -- have been unable to overcome the perception that they're boring. If that perception was ever accurate, it's not true now, when San Antonio boasts a top-five offense and plays at a faster pace than any of the league's other elite teams. Yet the team and players continue to play in relative obscurity.

One way to quantify this fact is using the trends Google makes available to track searches on its site. While Google does not provide the actual search totals, we can compare players using a common standard -- in this case the week where LeBron James was searched the most. On average, James is searched 49 percent as much as his most frequent week, so his score is 49. By contrast, Duncan searches average four percent as frequent as James' biggest week for a score of 4.

To measure player attention this season, I pulled both overall and news searches from the start of training camp until now for each of this year's All-Stars (both against the standard of peak James searches), then averaged the two categories. That shows another star aging gracefully, Kobe Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakers, as far and away the league's most searched player.

As the size of the bubbles shows, Bryant also led all players in All-Star voting this season. The magnitude of that difference, however, wasn't nearly as large as Bryant's advantage in Google search volume. To fit everyone else on the screen at a reasonable size requires scaling the axis with search trends. Bryant comes up in more than four times as many news searches as James, who is himself searched more than twice as often as anyone else in the league.

Then there's Duncan. Despite playing at the league's fourth-best clip on a per-minute basis (as measured by the win percentage component of my WARP rating), Duncan predictably lags in attention. He finished a distant fourth in fan voting for the West's frontcourt starters and fares even worse in Google trends. Lesser players like Chris Bosh, David Lee and even Paul George -- who got the fewest votes of any player who made the All-Star Game -- are more popular searches.

There's an imperfect relationship between 2012-13 performance and Google searches among All-Stars, at least when Bryant and James are left out. Duncan is the biggest negative outlier -- the star-caliber player flying lowest under the radar this year. He's not alone. Here are the rest of the 10 All-Stars receiving the least attention relative to their play.

Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder (Search Trend Average: 3.5)

Westbrook's lack of popularity is not entirely surprising. Though only Chris Paul is clearly superior among West guards, Westbrook finished fifth in All-Star voting, behind starters Paul and Bryant, James Harden and Jeremy Lin. What's odd is that Westbrook's polarizing game doesn't translate into much attention online -- he ranks 16th in Google search volume.
Tyson Chandler, New York Knicks (Search Trend Average: 1.5)
Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets (Search Trend Average: 2.5)

Playing in the country's biggest media market hasn't done much to help the visibility of Chandler and Lopez, both of whom are overshadowed by bigger stars on their own teams. Lopez got more attention as one of the most prominent omissions from the original All-Star rosters; Chandler ranks near the bottom of searches for All-Stars. As is the case with Duncan, Chandler's tough defense is a hard sell.
Jrue Holiday, Philadelphia 76ers (Search Trend Average: 1.0)
Zach Randolph, Memphis Grizzlies (Search Trend Average: 1.0)
Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls (Search Trend Average: 3.0)
LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers (Search Trend Average: 1.0)


By this measure, Aldridge is the league's most obscure All-Star. When compared to the other players with a score of 1 (Holiday, Randolph and Luol Deng), Aldridge has the lowest Google trend rank of the group.

Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs (Search Trend Average: 4.5)

Parker actually gets searched more frequently than his MVP teammate. Nonetheless, Parker ranks poorly both in Google trends and All-Star voting for an elite point guard who was getting MVP buzz before badly spraining his ankle last week. After all, being considered the most exciting Spurs player is damning with faint praise.
Luol Deng, Chicago Bulls (Search Trend Average: 1.0)
Like the Spurs, the Bulls have a pair of players on this list. The problem is that Derrick Rose draws so much of the interest about Chicago, even -- or perhaps especially -- in absentia. Because of the high degree of interest in his possible comeback this season, Rose's search trend average (27.5) would rank third among All-Stars behind Bryant and James.
Rose will surely be a topic tonight, but a strong performance from Duncan on national television might go a long way toward reminding viewers of his greatness. The way Duncan is playing for the league's best team deserves the attention.

 

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Avery Bradley producing helpful numbers

By Neil Tardy, Special to ESPN.com

When a player returns from a long-term injury, he generally needs time -- sometimes weeks, sometimes an entire season -- to regain his form. Fantasy owners saw this with David West last season, and with Ricky Rubio earlier this season. We're seeing it now with Andrew Bogut and Danny Granger. And really, we continue to see it with Dwight Howard, who's less than a year removed from back surgery.

Avery Bradley, of course, isn't a big name like those five, but he did achieve fantasy relevance with his strong finish to 2011-12. This past offseason, Bradley had surgeries on both of his shoulders, which caused him to miss the first two months of the 2012-13 season.

Now 28 games in, it appears Bradley is regaining his form. And on a Boston Celtics team without Rajon Rondo, Bradley seems to be worth rostering in most formats the rest of the way.

In seven games since the All-Star break, the third-year pro is averaging 13.1 points, 1.6 steals and 1.0 3-pointers while shooting 51.9 percent from the field. On Tuesday, Bradley had his best statistical performance of the season with 22 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists (all season bests) against the Philadelphia 76ers.

While Bradley isn't a difference-maker in any category (save perhaps for steals, where he's improved markedly from 2011-12), he'll see plenty of minutes for the Celtics, whose remaining schedule looks pretty decent.

As of Wednesday morning, Bradley was available in 93.8 percent of ESPN.com leagues. I'd strongly consider adding him in leagues of at least 12 teams.


[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• Everyone knows what Serge Ibaka did on Sunday. (And in case you missed it, Blake Griffin put down the ice pack and issued this wonderful Twitter response.) But on Tuesday, the somehow-not-suspended Ibaka contributed a timely 3-pointer as the Oklahoma City Thunder pulled away from the Los Angeles Lakers. So let's talk about that. After making all of two 3s in his first three NBA seasons, Ibaka now has 15 in 2012-13, and in his past 13 games, he's 7-for-10 from downtown. None of that really means much for fantasy purposes, but it got me wondering about shot-blockers who were also a factor from distance. The only player I could find who averaged 3.0 blocks and at least 1.0 3-pointer in the same season was Raef LaFrentz, who produced 3.0 blocks and 1.5 3s while appearing in 51 games for the Denver Nuggets in 2001-02. In a full season, Andrei Kirilenko came very close in 2003-04, when he averaged 2.8 blocks and 0.9 3s for the Utah Jazz. I'm honestly not sure making a 3 per game would do much for Ibaka's fantasy value. As I've said, 3s aren't that tough to come by. Still, it's fun to imagine.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Al Jefferson (ankle) likely will miss his third straight game, meaning Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter are again strong fill-in options when the Jazz face the Cleveland Cavaliers. Apparently Mo Williams (thumb) will play only if he doesn't experience any lingering soreness following Tuesday's practice. Refer to what I said above about players needing time to come back from major injuries. Keep Williams reserved for now.

• Ed Davis is coming off his best game with the Memphis Grizzlies, and he's another excellent temporary fix should Zach Randolph (ankle) sit out again. With both Randolph and Darrell Arthur (neck) sidelined, Davis had 10 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks against the Orlando Magic on Sunday. The Grizzlies host the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday.

• Bradley Beal (ankle) didn't practice on Tuesday and is doubtful for the Washington Wizards, who visit the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Wolves said that Nikola Pekovic (abdominal strain) and Kirilenko (calf) will both miss Wednesday's game and at least two more after that.

• Byron Mullens' knee injury isn't considered to be serious, but after playing only 3 minutes against the Blazers on Monday, his availability against the Brooklyn Nets is in question.

• Carmelo Anthony (knee) is questionable for the New York Knicks, who host the Detroit Pistons.
 

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Top late-season fantasy pickups

Jason Kidd, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist among rising players who could boost rosters


By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

If ever a window exists in which you're provided the opportunity to separate yourself from the other fantasy owners in your league, this last six weeks of the season is it. In many leagues, activity has dwindled among owners not in close races. Regardless of whether you view your team as a championship contender, there are multiple benefits to remaining voracious on the waiver wire and granting diligent attention to your roster.

First, you can upset the equilibrium of battles between other owners by outperforming what the league expects from your team. Playing the spoiler builds self-esteem. Additionally, lack of activity from other owners often makes sizable leaps in the standings more realistic than you'd think, because the teams you're facing are often less competitive than they were before the All-Star break. And finally, paying close attention to box scores and late-season player trends in these final weeks of the season helps you cultivate an understanding of players and their value going into next season's draft.

On top of all that, Mike Tyson once said "champions don't quit." And Mike Tyson is spectacular.

Here are eight widely available players who have performed notably as of late. One or more of them are more than likely better than the worst player on your roster at this point in the season.

Jason Kidd, PG, New York Knicks (42.6 percent owned): Kidd is coming off an abominable February in which he shot 19.6 percent from the field and had just 0.6 3-pointers in 24.2 minutes per game, the worst month in his Hall of Fame career. The encouraging part of his slump, however, is that he continued logging considerable minutes. Plus, in the past few seasons, Kidd has reinvented himself as a player who can provide 3s, assists and steals without starter's minutes, something he should continue this season. He's seemingly snapped out of his shooting slump, shooting 50 percent from the floor in his first three March contests, and is still averaging 1.7 3s and 1.7 steals per game this season, one of just five players to accomplish that feat. Even with Wednesday's six-point performance, he still posted six assists, three steals and two 3s, and he is a consistent provider in those three categories and worth a roster spot on any fantasy team that needs them.

If ever a window exists in which you're provided the opportunity to separate yourself from the other fantasy owners in your league, this last six weeks of the season is it. In many leagues, activity has dwindled among owners not in close races. Regardless of whether you view your team as a championship contender, there are multiple benefits to remaining voracious on the waiver wire and granting diligent attention to your roster.

First, you can upset the equilibrium of battles between other owners by outperforming what the league expects from your team. Playing the spoiler builds self-esteem. Additionally, lack of activity from other owners often makes sizable leaps in the standings more realistic than you'd think, because the teams you're facing are often less competitive than they were before the All-Star break. And finally, paying close attention to box scores and late-season player trends in these final weeks of the season helps you cultivate an understanding of players and their value going into next season's draft.

On top of all that, Mike Tyson once said "champions don't quit." And Mike Tyson is spectacular.

Here are eight widely available players who have performed notably as of late. One or more of them are more than likely better than the worst player on your roster at this point in the season.

Jason Kidd, PG, New York Knicks (42.6 percent owned): Kidd is coming off an abominable February in which he shot 19.6 percent from the field and had just 0.6 3-pointers in 24.2 minutes per game, the worst month in his Hall of Fame career. The encouraging part of his slump, however, is that he continued logging considerable minutes. Plus, in the past few seasons, Kidd has reinvented himself as a player who can provide 3s, assists and steals without starter's minutes, something he should continue this season. He's seemingly snapped out of his shooting slump, shooting 50 percent from the floor in his first three March contests, and is still averaging 1.7 3s and 1.7 steals per game this season, one of just five players to accomplish that feat. Even with Wednesday's six-point performance, he still posted six assists, three steals and two 3s, and he is a consistent provider in those three categories and worth a roster spot on any fantasy team that needs them.


Enes Kanter, C, Utah Jazz (12.9 percent owned): It's important to temper your expectations for Kanter despite his monstrous 23-point, 22-rebound performance on Friday, as both Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson were sidelined and because the Jazz frontcourt is still overcrowded since they didn't make a deadline deal. But Kanter has demonstrated measurable improvements in his offensive game in his second season, nailing jumpers between 10 and 23 feet at a 46 percent rate while still attempting 55.1 percent of his shots at the rim. Per 40 minutes, Kanter is averaging 17.8 points, 11.4 rebounds, 1.6 blocks and 1.0 steals per game and has the potential to be a future fantasy cornerstone in field goal percentage. He's scored at least 17 points in three straight games and will continue to be worth starting in every format while Al Jefferson is out with a sore ankle. Expect big things from Kanter until the Jazz field a fully healthy frontcourt, and even once he's relegated to his typical duties, he'll put up excellent per-minute stats with the occasional monstrous performance.

Devin Harris, PG/SG, Atlanta Hawks (6.4 percent owned): I expected Harris to step up when Lou Williams went down in mid-January, but he averaged just 9.9 points per game in February and didn't turn it on until late in the month, when he rattled off a streak of seven straight games in double figures. March has been even better thus far, as he didn't have six assists in any February contest and has already done so twice this month. Plus, Harris is averaging 11.4 points, 3.6 assists, 1.2 3s and 1.6 steals per game over his last five contests. An advantageous aspect of Harris in a fantasy sense is his shooting guard eligibility, as this allows you to amass some assists from a non-point guard slot if you're trying to make up ground in a category typically dominated by point guards.

Meyers Leonard, C, Portland Trail Blazers (0.3 percent owned): Leonard is skilled for his size (he played guard in high school before a growth spurt), and given the Blazers' lack of depth, it's surprising that he previously hasn't had any mini-breakouts like his recent three-game spree in which he averaged 13.3 points on 72.7 percent shooting with 6.3 rebounds in 19.3 minutes per game. He lacks the bulk to bang inside right now but has some face-up game and should be able to provide some scoring and rebounding for deep leagues if he continues earning around 20 minutes per game. He averaged 13.6 points on 58.4 percent shooting with 8.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game last year at Illinois, and even though the boards and blocks won't immediately translate, he should post the occasional efficient, double-digit scoring night for deep, two-center leagues.

Cory Joseph, PG, San Antonio Spurs (0.1 percent owned): Most expected either Nandi de Colo or Patty Mills to step into Tony Parker's starting spot when he injured his ankle, but Joseph was called up from the D-League and has played the most minutes of the three in each of the past two games. Joseph possesses upside, as he was a one-and-done at Texas and was averaging 19.4 points, 5.5 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 1.9 steals and 1.3 3s per game in 26 games for the Austin Toros before getting called up. This experience was invaluable, as his playmaking needs continued development to complement his natural ability to score and create off the dribble. Unfortunately, there seems to be a megaplatoon among Joseph, Mills and de Colo, so we won't see what he could do with full rein of the offense. For deep leagues, though, his D-League stats indicate a well-rounded fantasy skill set, with the ability to get points, assists, steals, 3s and solid boards for a point guard. He'll have to separate himself from the pack to have consistent value, but his fantasy potential is legit.
 

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Kobe Bryant continues hot shooting

By Seth Landman, Special to ESPN.com

The Lakers outscored the Hornets 33-9 in the fourth quarter behind a huge performance by Kobe Bryant, and they needed just about all of those points, because they were down 18 through three. Kobe has obviously had some ups and downs this season, but he's averaging 33.6 points on 53.6 percent shooting from the floor over his past five games, so this is definitely not one of his down periods.
As usual, one of the most interesting things to think about in fantasy basketball is Bryant's value heading into next season. This was the season he was supposed to lean on his teammates and have his own production suffer a bit. It obviously hasn't played out that way; he's not first in the league in usage rate anymore, but he's still third, right behind Carmelo Anthony and Russell Westbrook. One wonders how long he can keep it up, but for folks who drafted Kobe late in the first round this season, behind guys like Dwyane Wade and Deron Williams, Kobe has been a great value.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Kobe Bryant, Lakers: 42 points (14-of-21 FG), 7 rebounds, 12 assists against the Hornets
Jeff Teague, Hawks: 27 points (10-of-15 FG), 11 assists, 3 3-pointers, 1 steal, 1 block versus the 76ers
Nikola Vucevic, Magic: 25 points (11-of-16 FG), 21 rebounds, 4 assists against the Heat
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Nicolas Batum, Trail Blazers: 10 points (4-of-10 FG), 4 rebounds, 3 assists versus the Grizzlies
Steve Nash, Lakers: 5 points (2-of-7 FG), 4 rebounds, 1 assist against the Hornets
Evan Turner, 76ers: 2 points (1-of-7 FG), 3 rebounds, 4 assists versus the Hawks



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking Back[/h]• Mo Williams returned to the lineup for the slumping Jazz but was pretty underwhelming in his first game back from his thumb injury, and the Jazz took a loss in Cleveland. It was mainly his shot that was off, as he finished just 3-for-12 from the floor, but he made two 3-pointers and chipped in six assists. He's probably worth starting in most leagues right away, but it could take him another game or two to get back into the flow.
• Jeff Green made the winning bucket for the Celtics in a big road win over the Pacers, and he finished with 11 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 blocks. He's moving right onto the fringe of reliability in fantasy leagues of late and is averaging 15.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.7 blocks over his past three games, all wins by the C's.
• Dorell Wright has had his playing time yanked around quite a bit this season, but the 76ers swingman has been making 3s of late, and that means he probably belongs in your fantasy lineup. He's averaging 14.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.8 3s and 1.5 steals over his past four games. It's easy to forget that Wright has been a top-30 fantasy guy in the past, especially when he seems to find himself on the bench these days more often than not, but take the hot streak while it's there, because he's extremely valuable in fantasy leagues when he gets minutes.
• The Magic lost a heartbreaker to the Heat on a layup by -- who else? -- LeBron James on the final possession, but Nikola Vucevic played a monster game for the home team. He finished with 25 points and 21 rebounds, and this after scuffling a bit in his previous two outings against the Grizzlies and the Hornets. Obviously, Vucevic is still searching for a little more consistency in his performance night to night, but he's a really exciting guy to have in fantasy leagues coming down the stretch.
• Ed Davis got the start for the Grizzlies, filling in for Zach Randolph in a home win over the Trail Blazers, but didn't do much with the opportunity, posting just three points and six boards in 25 minutes. He had 10 points and 10 rebounds off the bench in a blowout win over the Magic on Sunday, but it would appear that he'll be back to bench-warming once Randolph is back in the lineup.
• Sebastian Telfair got his first significant playing time as a Raptor on Wednesday night and went off for 13 points, 7 assists, 4 steals and 3 trifectas against a putrid Suns team that managed to get only one player into double figures on the night. It's never a good idea to read too much into blowouts, but assists, steals and 3s are always of major value in fantasy leagues, and if Telfair can carve out the kind of playing time Jose Calderon was getting in Toronto, there could be more games like this on the horizon.
[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]• The Knicks likely will be without Carmelo Anthony on Thursday night against the Thunder, and that means you'll want to make sure Raymond Felton, J.R. Smith and Amar� Stoudemire are all in your lineup. The Thunder have a very good defense, but they also play pretty fast, so there should be plenty of chances for the Knicks to rack up numbers even if they'll probably lose the game.
• The Clippers and Nuggets will both be entirely healthy and ready to go for their faceoff in Denver. I really like this matchup for Nuggets starting center Kosta Koufos. He's averaging just 10.0 points and 7.5 rebounds in two games against the Clippers so far this season, but he's doing it on 77 percent shooting from the floor. He's been very efficient of late as well, averaging 9.8 points, 8.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks while shooting 66 percent from the floor over his past five games. Make sure he's in your lineup this time around.
[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]As usual, I'll avoid the obvious answers of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Instead, I'll go with J.R. Smith. His shot hasn't been too accurate of late, but he's managing 18.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2.2 steals and 3.4 3s over his past five games. The Knicks will need a huge night out of him to keep it close against the Thunder, and I'm betting he shows up.
 

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Fastbreak: Quartet of Bucks makes for appealing options

By Tom Carpenter
ESPN.com
As usual, the schedule will play a big role in your roster decisions this week, as the likes of Joakim Noah, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeMarcus Cousins will be rendered useless because the Chicago Bulls, Los Angeles Clippers and Sacramento Kings hit the hardwood just twice in Week 20. Meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors are the only short-term plays, as they roll four times this week before hitting stretches of three-game weeks. The Dallas Mavericks, Milwaukee Bucks, Oklahoma City Thunder and Phoenix Suns play four games this week and next before three-game stretches kick in.
As I've noted the past couple of weeks, the Atlanta Hawks, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks and Washington Wizards provide excellent long-term plays, as they all run four times for at least the next three weeks. Technically, the Portland Trail Blazers will match teams that have four games this week and next, but their eight games over that stretch are split into three this week, and they have the only remaining five-game run in the NBA next week. Ideally, you'll just wait until Week 21 to take advantage of that five-game stretch, but you can rationalize inserting a cheap Damian Lillard ($8.0 million), for instance, this week and keeping him for next week, if you need to get under your salary cap.
Guards
Brandon Jennings (9.4) and Monta Ellis (8.8), Milwaukee Bucks: Ever since Jennings hoisted 34 shots during his seventh NBA game to torch the Warriors for 55 points, we've known that he is a chucker. And with a career average of just 5.7 assists per game, he has been a point guard in name only. A funny thing has happened since J.J. Redick joined his backcourt in Milwaukee, though, especially during the past three games: Jennings suddenly has become an elite point guard who has shown quality shot selection. The results? 16.0 assists per game and a respectable 44.7 FG percentage over his past three games. His scoring has dipped to 16.3 ppg, as he has taken 4.3 fewer shots per game than he did in February, but he's banged down 58.8 percent of his 3s to average 3.3 3-pointers per game. It's a small sample size, but I do think he's going to settle into this point guard role for the remainder of the season. That should give him a boost in dimes and FG percentage, which should generate far better production in points leagues like the Fastbreak game. I like his upside a bit better than backcourt mate Ellis, but Ellis will cost you $600K less.
J.R. Smith (8.3), New York Knicks: Speaking of chuckers, Smith has been chucking and chucking well the past eight games, routinely topping 20 Fastbreak points and peaking with Thursday's 34 Fastbreak-point performance against the tough Oklahoma City Thunder. The Knicks put up the points even without Carmelo Anthony in that game due to his sore knee. It doesn't sound like Melo will be out for an extended period of time, but any absences next week would open the door for Smith to see a lot more shots. Even with Melo in action, so long as the streaky Smith stays hot, he should remain a solid Fastbreak play at $8.3 million.
Ricky Rubio (6.7), Minnesota Timberwolves: Despite a $300K bump for another excellent week of games, Rubio remains the best bargain in the Fastbreak game this week and likely for the remainder of the season due to the Wolves' schedule, which has them hitting the court four times each of the next five weeks. The beauty of points leagues is that a player like Rubio can cover up his atrocious field goal percentage and turnovers with dimes, rebounds and steals. That's why he has topped the 20-point mark six times in his past seven games. He's a no-brainer add for any Fastbreak squad that's struggling to get under the salary cap.
Forwards
Chris Bosh (9.2), Miami Heat: Serge Ibaka is a safer and more consistent play than Bosh, but he will cost you $200K more. Bosh has shown some signs of life the past couple of outings (20 and 19 FB points) after struggling badly after the All-Star break. Of course, the Heat have been on fire and riding the extremely hot play of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, so they haven't needed to lean on Bosh. However, the Heat face some weak frontcourts in Week 20 (ATL, PHI, MIL, TOR), which should open the door for Bosh to turn things around.
Ersan Ilyasova (8.6), Milwaukee Bucks: The big fella has had his own bouts with inconsistency, but if you pull out his three bad games (7, 10, 9 points), Ilyasova has racked up eight games of at least 23 points in his past 11 contests. And just like teammates Jennings and Ellis, he has a tasty schedule for most of Week 20, facing the Mavs, Wiz, Heat and Magic. He costs $100K more than Dirk Nowitzki this week, but Diggler has a tougher schedule (MIL, SA, CLE, OKC) and has been even more inconsistent the past month.
Kawhi Leonard (7.9), San Antonio Spurs: Spurs coach Gregg Popovich truly doesn't give a darn about fantasy folks like us. We know this because if Leonard were playing on, say, the Warriors, a team that loves to chuck the ball with reckless abandon, he would be an absolute fantasy stud. Instead, Pop just wants to win games and shares the rock within the team to accomplish his goal. Even with Tony Parker out of action, we haven't seen a significant boost in production from Leonard (he's scored exactly 14 points in each of his past three games). However, his market value of $7.9 million is enticing, and he still has managed to rack up at least 18 FB points in four of his past five games. Plus, the Spurs have a friendly Week 20 schedule (OKC, MIN, DAL, CLE), so it's possible that Leonard could get hot for a game or two and make a surge. Regardless, he is one of the better values at forward this week as a consistent play with upside.
Center
Larry Sanders (8.3), Milwaukee Bucks: Unlike the Spurs, the Bucks have been a huge help to fantasy teams. That's why we can find great values at every position this week from their roster. Not much needs to be said about Sanders; the guy is a double-double and block machine, as well as a threat for 20 Fastbreak points every time he sets foot on the court. Even when he doesn't have a big game, he is basically a shoo-in for low-teens Fastbreak scoring. Plus, he still comes at a great price.
Andrew Bogut (6.3), Golden State Warriors: This is the last four-game week of the season for the Warriors, so I can safely guarantee that this is the last time I will mention his name in one of my "Running the Point" columns. But if not for that four-game stretch and a ridiculously cheap $6.3 million contract, I wouldn't even be mentioning him for Week 20. I shouldn't even have to note the obvious caveats about the likelihood that he'll suffer yet another injury during the week and miss more games, but if you are really tight up against your salary cap, Bogut is worth a roll of the dice to get you by.
 

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Serge Ibaka's game continues to grow

By Josh Whitling, Special to ESPN.com


Serge Ibaka's spike in scoring this season has elevated him into the first tier of fantasy players, as he currently ranks 10th on the Player Rater thanks to a jump from 9.1 to 13.6 points per game with 56.5 percent shooting from the floor this season. He's been even hotter as of late, averaging 15.5 points per game over his past six contests, even after a 12-point effort against the Knicks on Thursday night. He made up for his below-average scoring with nine boards and five blocks, however, and was efficient as usual, going 5-for-7 from the floor and 2-for-2 from the stripe. His offensive game is still developing, and I wouldn't be surprised if he improves more and more over the next several seasons, further increasing his fantasy value and vaulting him into late-first-round territory in the future. His average draft position was 24.4 this season, and based upon his improvement on the offensive end and still sterling (albeit slightly lower) block totals, he'll be a justified second-rounder next season as he continues his ascent into fantasy superstardom.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]THURSDAY, MARCH 7[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Kevin Durant, Thunder: 34 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 3-pointers against the Knicks
Ty Lawson, Nuggets: 21 points (9-15 FG), 6 rebounds, 11 assists, 3 3-pointers versus the Clippers
J.R. Smith, Knicks: 36 points, 6 3-pointers, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals against the Thunder
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Caron Butler, Clippers: 8 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists versus the Nuggets
Thabo Sefolosha, Thunder: 2 points, 1 rebound, 2 steals, 1 block against the Knicks
Iman Shumpert, Knicks: 2 points, 1 rebound, 1 steal versus the Thunder



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• Carmelo Anthony was a late scratch against the Thunder with a sore knee Thursday, which provided J.R. Smith with even more of a green light to gun. He scored 36 points on 14-for-29 shooting from the floor with six 3-pointers but contributed just three rebounds and three assists. Melo isn't expected to be sidelined long, although if he's handled gingerly in preparation for the playoffs, Smith could see an increased scoring load in the final weeks of the season. If you don't mind inefficient scoring and simply want some volume points and 3s, Smith is a viable fantasy option, although he's the most harmful player in the league on the Player Rater in field goal percentage with a minus-2.05 rating. If you are trying to make up ground in that category, I'd bench him despite his sporadic monstrous scoring nights, because that much of a liability in one category makes improvement nearly impossible.

• Kenyon Martin played his first game of the season for the Knicks, scoring just four points with one steal while fouling out in 16 minutes. He provided one steal and one block per game in 42 games for the Clippers last season, so in super-deep leagues he could be an option for the defensive categories down the stretch if he can regularly earn close to 20 minutes per game.

• Danilo Gallinari dropped 20 points with 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, two 3s and a block Thursday night, his second consecutive game of at least 20 points. It appears he's snapping out of his recent slump and is no longer bothered by the thigh injury that hampered his production in February. If you've been benching him in shallow leagues thanks to missed time and mediocre production, he's safe to get back in your lineup based upon his recent scoring spree and because he's averaged 21.5 points in 35.5 minutes per game over his past two contests.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Bradley Beal is day-to-day with a bum ankle that had him on crutches briefly, so don't be surprised if he sits for Friday's game. Martell Webster played a team-high 42 minutes in his absence Wednesday and is averaging 12.0 points with 2.1 3s per game over his past eight contests, and Trevor Ariza played 38 minutes on Wednesday, scoring 16 points with 7 rebounds, 6 assists and three 3s. Expect better-than-average nights from both of them against the Nets on Friday if Beal is on the shelf, especially from downtown, as Brooklyn allows opponents to shoot 37.4 percent from behind the arc, sixth-worst in the league.

• Wayne Ellington scored 16 points with six rebounds and two 3s on Wednesday starting in place of Dion Waiters, who has missed the past two games with sickness and is questionable for Friday's contest. If Waiters is ruled out, Ellington is a nice spot start, but if Waiters returns he's been playing well enough over the past month (17.1 points on 54.7 percent shooting over the past 30 days) to warrant an immediate reinstatement into fantasy lineups.

• News is that Kyrie Irving won't be shut down unless his knee continues to bother him, although I wouldn't be surprised if it does. So I'm worried about how he'll finish the season with the Cavs focused on the future. He's obviously a must-start even if his minutes are limited, but Shaun Livingston will be worth a look if they put Irving on the shelf. Livingston is coming off a February in which he averaged 4.3 assists, 0.7 steals and 0.6 blocks in 21.3 minutes per game, and although his scoring won't help fantasy teams, he should contribute in those three categories if they're cautious with Irving down the stretch.

• Mo Williams is back for the Jazz, although he showed signs of rust Wednesday night, going just 3-for-12 from the floor. He is a willing gunner, however, and worth starting immediately if you need 3s. If you're looking for overall production from him, though, and don't need his presence in your starting lineup just yet, I'd hold off until he proves he's ready to contribute consistently.

• Nate Robinson has been ice cold, averaging just 7.8 points on 31.1 percent shooting over his past five games, perhaps because he's favoring sore ribs. He was benched in the fourth quarter of Wednesday's game in favor of rookie Marquis Teague, who scored 11 points with three 3s, both career highs. Robinson is historically streaky, so it's not worth dropping him based on this cold spell if you've been depending on him, but Teague is worth a deep-league look if he's in line to get point guard minutes in Chicago and eventually back up Derrick Rose upon his impending return. Pay attention to how the guard rotation plays out for the Bulls, as it's up in the air how the minutes will be distributed when Rose returns.
 

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[h=1]Serge Ibaka makes the leap[/h][h=3]Already a defensive force, OKC's big man now has a major offensive profile[/h]
By Joe Kaiser | ESPN Insider

There's no mystery regarding Serge Ibaka's primary role on an Oklahoma City Thunder team that runs the offense through its two stars, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.

Ibaka is the rim-protector, the heart and soul of the defense. And at age 23, he's already established himself as one of the game's premier frontcourt defenders, leading the league last season in blocks per game (3.65) and ranking second this season (2.9) behind only Milwaukee's Larry Sanders (3.2).

But it wouldn't be accurate to pigeonhole Ibaka strictly as a "defender" anymore, because he's emerged as a very talented and even reliable offensive player in his fourth season in the league (Tuesday night's indiscretion notwithstanding). In terms of raw counting stats, he's increased his scoring average to nearly 14 points a game, up from 9.1 in 2011-12. His "perfect" game in Game 4 of the Western Conference finals last season certainly offered a glimpse of his emerging offense, but where exactly has that improvement been most evident in a season where mere glimpses have turned into routine production?

Let's look at the different areas where Ibaka has become particularly strong, some of which will surprise you.
<OFFER>Near the basket
Though Ibaka still doesn't possess a vast array of post moves, it isn't as though he is lost offensively whenever he's close to the bucket -- far from it.

HoopData.com shows that he's making 76.8 percent of his shots near the rim this season, which is a big improvement over last season (69.8 percent) as well as a career high. More than that, he's ranked among the very best big men in the league, including Al Horford, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Josh Smith and Udonis Haslem.

What's more encouraging is that this isn't just a guy who's scoring more because of a slight bump in his minutes. And it isn't someone who's getting all of his points from dunks, either.

According to Synergy, Ibaka has been even more effective on the offensive glass, scoring more easy putbacks as well as scoring on the pick and roll. The chart below llustrates just how strong Ibaka has been on plays that often result in shots near the basket and where he ranks in the league.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Ibaka's improvement[/h]
PlayPPP 2011-122012-13League% 2011-122012-13
ORB (putbacks)1.1231.1986573
P&R (roll man)0.9541.0765173
Cut1.1851.3965388
Post-up0.7431.0003992

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>


<!-- end inline 1 -->
Mid-range game
Few elite shot-blockers in the history of the game have ever come with a polished perimeter jumper quite like that of Ibaka. Sounds bold, but think about it for a second -- look at the short list of guys who have posted higher single-season blocks-per-game averages than Ibaka: Mark Eaton, Manute Bol, Hakeem Olajuwon, Dikembe Mutombo, David Robinson, Tree Rollins, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Patrick Ewing, Alonzo Mourning, Theo Ratliff, Elmore Smith
.
From that group, just Robinson, Ewing, Mourning, Olajuwon and Abdul-Jabbar make any sense at all. Marcus Camby, who equaled Ibaka's mark in 1997-98, might be another.

But enough about history -- let's get back to present day, where Ibaka is shooting 46 percent on jumpers from the 16- to 23-foot range this season (which happens to be the same percentage he shot on "long 2s" last season). How does that rank compared to the rest of the league?

While it's nowhere close to the ridiculous 55 percent that Miami's Chris Bosh is shooting on deep 2s, it ranks higher than almost any other big man in the league, including other perimeter-oriented bigs like Al Jefferson (42 percent), Andrea Bargnani (43 percent), Al Horford (40 percent), DeMarcus Cousins (31 percent). It's even ahead of Dirk Nowitzki (44 percent), LaMarcus Aldridge (41 percent) and David Lee (41 percent).

Who would have expected those numbers?

Expanded range
Not only has Ibaka become one of the league's best bigs in terms of shooting from the perimeter, he's added the 3-pointer to his repertoire this season for really the first time in his career.


Granted, very few coaches this side of Don Nelson will get overly excited about a 6-foot-10 big man firing up 3s on a regular basis -- especially with Durant and Westbrook around -- but Ibaka is showing a willingness to take them and an ability to make them.

After attempting only six 3s in his first three seasons in the league, he's made 14 of 37 attempts in 2012-13. That's 37.8 percent, an impressive number when you consider how rare it is for a great shot-blocker to be capable of spotting up for the occasional long ball.

Think about Tim Duncan, a guy who has averaged 2.2 blocks a game in his career and always excelled on the mid-range game. He's made 28 3s in his entire career, and only 12 the past 10 years.

Or how about Robinson, another Spurs legend who was a shot-blocking force and deadly mid-range shooter in his day? "The Admiral" made just 25 shots from 3-point range in his career, and just 10 in his last nine seasons.

Here's one more for good measure -- Ewing. He's a shot-blocker and a jump-shooter, so he belongs in this conversation, but Ewing also made just 19 3s in 17 NBA seasons.

Will Ibaka ever be a No. 1 offensive option in this league, either for the Thunder or another team? Probably not.

But if he's already this far along in his offensive development now -- at age 23 and in only his fourth NBA season -- there's no telling how good he can become.
 
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