NBA Fantasy News 2012/2013

[HacheMan]

Ricky Rubio, Spencer Hawes among top final-week bargains

By Tom Carpenter
ESPN.com

It's hard to believe that there's just a dozen days of NBA games remaining in the 2012-13 fantasy hoops campaign. Since the Washington Wizards and Cleveland Cavaliers tipped off this season back on Oct. 30, we have seen a ton of fantasy statistics produced by NBA players: about 220,680 points, 94,650 rebounds, 49,800 dimes, 17,550 steals, 11,610 blocks and 16,080 3-pointers. But once the buzzer sounds on the final game on April 17, we won't see another relevant hoops stat for nearly six months. Yet this is no time to look back and savor. Head-to-head points leagues are rolling through the finals and, with just a week and a half remaining, this will be the last time we set our Fastbreak lineups this season.
For those of you in head-to-head leagues that set your lineups this Monday and next Monday, you'll want to be sure to check the schedule closely for Weeks 24 and 25. The Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Hornets, New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers are playing four games in Week 24, while the Atlanta Hawks, Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic and Utah Jazz will ball just twice. In the final half-week of games (Week 25), the Lakers and Hornets have a single game, and every other squad hits the court twice.
Many other points leagues -- including the Fastbreak game -- roll the final week and a half into one scoring period, which obviously affects the games-played schedule of the guys on your roster. Combining Weeks 24 and 25, we see that the Hawks, Pistons, Magic and Jazz get the short straw, playing a total of just four times. The best schedules during that stretch belong to the Nets, Bulls, Cavs, Heat, Bucks, Wolves, Knicks and Sixers, who roll six times. The remaining teams play five games, which means that although they don't have an ideal six-game slate, the high-end players on those teams could still find their way onto your roster.
At this time of year, there is an annual conundrum for fantasy hoops heads due to veteran studs being rested as their teams head toward the playoffs. You'll have to check for updates prior to setting your weekly lineups on Monday, but if you are in a head-to-head points league, odds are you will just have to suck it up, stick a guy like LeBron James into your lineup and hope he makes the most of the games he does end up playing. On the other hand, since we can choose from the entire player pool in Fastbreak, it may be wise to pull players like LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Tim Duncan and lean on younger guys on bad teams who more assuredly will play six games over the stretch run.
Guards
Monta Ellis (9.6), Milwaukee Bucks: Ellis has laid a couple of points-league eggs recently (nine and five Fastbreak points in two of his past three games), but his upside remains solid (36 FB points sandwiched between those single-digit outings). He still comes at a pretty reasonable price and plays six games against relatively easy competition: @MIA (sans LeBron, etc. ?), @ORL, @ATL, @CHA, DEN, @OKC (sans Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in the season finale?). Ellis figures to be one of the more reliable, high-upside plays at guard during the stretch run.
J.R. Smith (9.2), New York Knicks: We all know that Smith is a streaky shooter, so it's no surprise that he followed a five-game streak of 21- to 35-point Fastbreak games with a couple of stinkers (10 and nine points). However, since he has six games remaining on his schedule, odds are he will have a couple of big performances to counteract a couple of shoddy ones. And if things go well, he has the ability to make a big difference for your Fastbreak squad during the final stretch.
Ricky Rubio (7.8), Minnesota Timberwolves: As has been the case for several weeks, Rubio continues to be the best bargain in Fastbreak at the guard spot. He has been churning out 20-point games most nights and 30-plus on occasion. You can still ink him for fewer than $8 million, and with six games during the final week and a half, he should have little trouble outscoring just about any other Fastbreak guard.
Forwards
Carmelo Anthony, (9.7), New York Knicks: Hopefully you followed my recommendation last week to use Melo this week, because the scoring beast busted off a couple of monster games with 50 points (54 Fastbreak points) and 40 points (37 FB points). There is no doubt that Anthony is capable of churning out huge games like that on a nightly basis, plus he comes at a great price and has a six-game slate during the final week and a half. However, using him won't come without some risk. If the Knicks end up securing the No. 2 seed or Melo gets dinged up at all, coach Mike Woodson may well rest him for a game or two.
Ersan Ilyasova (8.9), Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks' big man has been on an absolute tear during his past five games, racking up 20, 23, 39, 32 and 36 Fastbreak points. He's crashing the boards, scoring and banging down 3s at a great clip and has six games remaining. Unlike Melo, there's nary a reason for Ilyasova to sit out any games as the season winds down, which means he should be among the safer upside plays at forward.
Reggie Evans (7.7), Brooklyn Nets: Evans is a one-trick wonder; he basically does nothing other than hit the glass, which he has been doing at a tremendous rate over the past month. That's helpful in roto leagues, because he can help you chase down an opponent if you are in a tight race in your league's rebounding category. However, if he isn't chipping in other stats, you'll be losing ground in other categories. In points leagues, on the other hand, we just care about total stats produced; which categories they come from doesn't matter. So a guy like Evans is a great example of how a one-category wonder can be a serious player in points leagues. That's why over his past 10 games, he has scored at least 13 Fastbreak points nine times, despite reaching double-digit scoring just three times. Evans has six games left and should be assured of playing in all of them. You can add him to your roster for just $7.7 million.
Center
Spencer Hawes (8.7), Philadelphia 76ers: I have called Hawes "fool's gold" for years, because every time he played well for a week or two, he would disappear for a month or two. But he has been so hot for so long -- his streak of nine 20-plus Fastbreak point games ended Wednesday when he scored 18 against the Charlotte Bobcats. So there is no getting around the fact that he appears to be a solid upside play for the remainder of the season. He also comes at a cheap $8.7 million and has a six-game slate to wrap up the season.
Nikola Pekovic (8.4), Minnesota Timberwolves: The big fella missed one game with a sprained ankle, but he followed that absence up with back-to-back 30-point Fastbreak games (31, 33). Aside from that one game he missed, Pek has tallied at least 21 points in six straight games and at least 26 in five straight. The Wolves roll six times as the season winds down, and Pek figures to be a points-league beast during that stretch at an incredibly affordable $8.4 million.

 

[HacheMan]

Gallinari injury opens door for Brewer

By Josh Whitling, Special to ESPN.com

Danilo Gallinari exited Thursday's matchup against the Mavericks with a major knee injury, likely a torn ACL, allowing Corey Brewer to play 35 minutes off the bench. He scored 23 points with two 3-pointers, two steals and a block. Brewer was averaging 25.8 minutes per game in the five previous contests, but he is primed for a significant uptick in minutes now, which will result in solid points, 3s and especially steals. Brewer ranks sixth in the league with 2.88 steals per 48 minutes, so with consistent starter-type minutes, he should be among the league leaders in steals from here on out. He's currently owned in just 15.5 percent of ESPN leagues but warrants much higher ownership if he's getting 30-plus minutes per night on a regular basis. Gallinari's injury should also open up extended minutes for Wilson Chandler, who is averaging 12.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.8 3s, 0.6 steals and 0.6 blocks per game in his past five contests. Chandler provides the type of across-the-board production that makes him an excellent late-season fill-in if you've got an injured player or a starter not performing up to standard. Both Brewer and Chandler deserve to be owned in most formats now that Gallinari is sidelined, and Kenneth Faried's production could also increase if his 12 points, 19 rebounds, 2 steals and 4 blocks Thursday is any indication.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]THURSDAY, APRIL 4[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Carlos Boozer, Bulls: 29 points, 18 rebounds, 3 assists against the Nets
Kenneth Faried, Nuggets: 12 points, 19 rebounds, 2 steals, 4 blocks versus the Mavericks
Kawhi Leonard, Spurs: 24 points, 14 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 3-pointers against the Thunder
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Joe Johnson, Nets: 12 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, 2 steals versus the Bulls
O.J. Mayo, Mavericks: 4 points, 6 assists versus the Nuggets
Tony Parker, Spurs: 2 points, 1 rebound, 4 assists against the Thunder



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• Kawhi Leonard returned after missing two games with a sore knee. He posted a dazzling line in a losing effort against the Thunder, scoring 24 points with 14 boards, six assists and three 3s. He's averaging 14.7 points per game since the All-Star Game after averaging 10.5 points per game prior to it and is blossoming into the type of multicategorical gem many expected when they drafted him this season. Despite his inconsistent production, Leonard ranks 43rd on the season Player Rater when sorting by averages and is looking like a legitimate fourth-round pick for next season's draft.

• Chris Kaman scored 13 points with nine boards and two blocks Thursday, coming off Tuesday's contest in which he scored 14 points with six rebounds. He's back in the starting lineup, at least for now, and even though he's been awful this season, he's still capable of putting up nice scoring and rebounding totals when getting minutes, as indicated by his 20.6 points and 10.4 rebounds per 40 minutes. If he keeps starting, he's a viable second center in most formats, especially if you want to augment your team's field goal percentage down the stretch.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Paul Pierce is questionable for Friday's game with a sore ankle, which will open the door for Jeff Green to continue his hot late-season play. Green ranks 19th on the 30-day Player Rater and is averaging an impressive 23.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.0 3s, 1.2 blocks and 2.0 steals per game in his past five, numbers he should easily replicate if Pierce sits.

• J.R. Smith has been very un-J.R. Smith-like lately, taking the ball to the rack with much higher frequency and shooting 50 percent from the floor in the past five games and 79.1 percent on 8.6 attempts per game from the stripe. If he continues being aggressive, he's much less of a hindrance in the field goal percentage department and becomes a much savvier play against a mediocre Bucks defense that's allowing teams to score 100.5 points per game since the start of March.

• There's not much incentive for Erik Spoelstra to start his stars against the lowly Bobcats on Friday, so look for Norris Cole to continue his improved play and put up a stat line worthy of notice in deep leagues. Cole is averaging 13.0 points, 3.0 assists, 1.0 3s and 1.3 steals per game in his past three contests and is a nice spot-start for daily transaction leagues if it looks like Dwyane Wade and Mario Chalmers are set to sit out another game.

• Among my new favorite players is rookie center Jonas Valanciunas, primarily because of his ability to contribute heftily in both percentage-based categories. This was on full display Wednesday night when he scored 24 points while going 4-for-7 from the field and an incredible 16-for-18 from the stripe, and he's a must-start in every format at this point if you need a bump in percentages with some points, rebounds and blocks thrown in. He ranks 33rd on the 30-day Player Rater and will be a hot name in next season's draft based upon his post-All-Star averages of 10.8 points on 59.6 percent from the floor and 81.8 percent from the stripe with 7.3 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in 26.6 minutes per game. Extrapolate those numbers to 30 minutes per game, and he's a top-10 center next season, so spending a mid-to-late round pick on him should reap dividends.

• Keep an eye on how Terrence Jones is used Friday, as he came out of nowhere to score 14 points with 12 rebounds in 29 minutes Wednesday night. The power forward situation in Houston now consists of a four-headed monster of Jones, Donatas Motiejunas, Thomas Robinson and Greg Smith. The overcrowded nature of the situation will likely result in none of the players seeing enough consistent playing time to be worth anything in all but the deepest formats. If you need a power forward, monitor the minutes distribution Friday, and if Jones once again sees significant run, he's a nice flier for deep leagues.

 

[HacheMan]

Risers for last week of season

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com

As we head into the final scoring period of the season, you will notice a big shake-up in the weekly Top 130. Since we have only a week and a half remaining, games played will be a major factor in determining player values. Neil Tardy does a great job of breaking down the weekly schedules in the Fantasy Forecaster column, but for your convenience, I have listed the games remaining for each team here, as well.
[h=3]The Top 130[/h]Note: Brian McKitish's top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2012-13 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses.
1. LeBron James, MIA (2)
2. Carmelo Anthony, NY (11)
3. Kevin Durant, OKC (1)
4. Chris Paul, LAC (3)
5. James Harden, HOU (4)
6. Stephen Curry, GS (5)
7. Deron Williams, BKN (12)
8. Ricky Rubio, MIN (13)
9. Russell Westbrook, OKC (6)
10. Paul George, IND (7)
11. Kyrie Irving, CLE (10)
12. Kobe Bryant, LAL (9)
13. Larry Sanders, MIL (20)
14. Brook Lopez, BKN (23)
15. Serge Ibaka, OKC (14)
16. Jrue Holiday, PHI (24)
17. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (18)
18. Brandon Jennings, MIL (22)
19. John Wall, WSH (21)
20. Damian Lillard, POR (19)
21. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (28)
22. J.R. Smith, NY (37)
23. Mike Conley, MEM (27)
24. Paul Pierce, BOS (15)
25. Marc Gasol, MEM (29)
26. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR (31)
27. David Lee, GS (32)
28. Monta Ellis, MIL (39)
29. Al Horford, ATL (16)
30. Josh Smith, ATL (17)
31. Blake Griffin, LAC (35)
32. Dwight Howard, LAL (36)
33. Roy Hibbert, IND (45)
34. Kemba Walker, CHA (38)
35. Jeff Teague, ATL (25)
36. Anthony Davis, NO (41)
37. Isaiah Thomas, SAC (44)
38. Klay Thompson, GS (43)
39. Al Jefferson, UTAH (34)
40. Tim Duncan, SA (33)
41. Chris Bosh, MIA (55)
42. Greivis Vasquez, NO (47)
43. Luol Deng, CHI (59)
44. Spencer Hawes, PHI (60)
45. Carlos Boozer, CHI (70)
46. Zach Randolph, MEM (46)
47. Rudy Gay, TOR (51)
48. Tyreke Evans, SAC (53)
49. Andre Iguodala, DEN (61)
50. Jeff Green, BOS (62)
51. Joakim Noah, CHI (58)
52. Nate Robinson, CHI (90)
53. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (50)
54. Greg Monroe, DET (42)
55. Thaddeus Young, PHI (57)
56. Ryan Anderson, NO (48)
57. Tony Parker, SA (40)
58. Nikola Pekovic, MIN (79)
59. Goran Dragic, PHO (73)
60. Nikola Vucevic, ORL (56)
61. J.J. Hickson, POR (69)
62. Andrei Kirilenko, MIN (88)
63. Gerald Henderson, CHA (71)
64. Kenneth Faried, DEN (81)
65. Wesley Matthews, POR (54)
66. Jeremy Lin, HOU (74)
67. George Hill, IND (67)
68. Omer Asik, HOU (75)
69. Jamal Crawford, LAC (76)
70. Tristan Thompson, CLE (82)
71. David West, IND (78)
72. Kawhi Leonard, SA (85)
73. Tobias Harris, ORL (63)
74. Chandler Parsons, HOU (65)
75. Pau Gasol, LAL (83)
76. Joe Johnson, BKN (95)
77. Raymond Felton, NY (94)
78. Tyson Chandler, NY (96)
79. Jarrett Jack, GS (86)
80. Kevin Garnett, BOS (107)
81. Evan Turner, PHI (98)
82. Reggie Evans, BKN (104)
83. Paul Millsap, UTAH (77)
84. Kyle Lowry, TOR (80)
85. Daniel Green, SA (89)
86. Moe Harkless, ORL (68)
87. Andre Miller, DEN (126)
88. Jose Calderon, DET (64)
89. Steve Nash, LAL (72)
90. Corey Brewer, DEN (NR)
91. Emeka Okafor, WSH (100)
92. Mario Chalmers, MIA (114)
93. Dwyane Wade, MIA (8)
94. Nicolas Batum, POR (26)
95. Mo Williams, UTAH (84)
96. Wilson Chandler, DEN (122)
97. Jonas Valanciunas, TOR (102)
98. DeMar DeRozan, TOR (99)
99. Eric Gordon, NO (101)
100. Shawn Marion, DAL (103)
101. O.J. Mayo, DAL (91)
102. Andre Drummond, DET (92)
103. Jameer Nelson, ORL (52)
104. Kevin Martin, OKC (93)
105. Mike Miller, MIA (NR)
106. Gordon Hayward, UTAH (97)
107. Jerryd Bayless, MEM (109)
108. Andrew Bogut, GS (105)
109. Vince Carter, DAL (110)
110. Jimmy Butler, CHI (129)
111. Wesley Johnson, PHO (116)
112. Beno Udrih, ORL (130)
113. Josh McRoberts, CHA (125)
114. Derrick Williams, MIN (113)
115. Brandan Wright, DAL (128)
116. Damien Wilkins, PHI (NR)
117. Luis Scola, PHO (115)
118. Dorell Wright, PHI (111)
119. Brandon Bass, BOS (119)
120. Trevor Ariza, WSH (124)
121. Kirk Hinrich, CHI (NR)
122. Derrick Favors, UTAH (112)
123. J.J. Redick, MIL (NR)
124. C.J. Miles, CLE (118)
125. Brandon Knight, DET (127)
126. Jason Terry, BOS (120)
127. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, CHA (NR)
128. Chase Budinger, MIN (NR)
129. Tiago Splitter, SA (NR)
130. Alonzo Gee, CLE (NR)

 

[HacheMan]

Wright, Kaman offer final-week value

By Tom Carpenter, ESPN.com

Much of the focus for fantasy squads at this time of year is running the gauntlet of DNPs in the box scores. There are plenty of veterans on playoff teams who are getting random games off to rest, dinged-up players on bad teams who are held out of back-to-back sets and just the random missed game from players who normally would play but won't because the season is winding down. The Dallas Mavericks are kind of a combination of all of those factors, because their roster is filled with aging veterans and they are technically still in the race for the eighth spot in the Western Conference playoffs, but they could be formally bumped out of that race soon, because they are 2 1/2 games back with six games remaining.

This makes it a little hard to project what to do with them for fantasy owners who need to set their final lineups for the remaining nine days of the season Monday or Tuesday (remember there are no NBA games Monday night). On the one hand, the Mavs should push their players hard until they are out of the playoff race, but at that point coach Rick Carlisle could pull the proverbial plug on his rotation.

The main injury risks right now are Elton Brand and Dirk Nowitzki. Brand has missed the past four games with a sore calf, though he was able to take part in Sunday's shootaround and was a game-time call for the Mavs' evening tilt with the Portland Trail Blazers. Nowitzki missed the fourth quarter of Sunday's game due to a sore foot, but Carlisle said "it's not considered serious" and Diggler said "I'll definitely play Wednesday."

That extended break before their next game Wednesday should give both Brand and Nowitzki a good shot at playing. However, if they sit out -- or if they end up getting shut down in the coming days -- Brandan Wright(20.6 percent ownership in ESPN leagues) and Chris Kaman (25.5 percent) should make for quality fill-in options. Over the past three games with Brand sidelined, Wright has totaled 46 points, 21 boards, 3 steals and 5 blocks, while taking double-digit shot attempts each game (21-37 FG). Meanwhile, Kaman has started the past four games with Brand out of action, and despite not touching the 25-minute mark, he has been scoring and hitting the glass at a decent clip, including Sunday's 26-point, 11-rebound, 2-block performance.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]SUNDAY, APRIL 7[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Will Barton, Trail Blazers: 22 points (7-11 FG, 8-9 FT), 13 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals against the Mavericks
Nikola Vucevic, Magic: 21 points, 21 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 blocks versus the Cavaliers
Russell Westbrook, Thunder: 37 points (15-27 FG, 5-6 FT), 11 rebounds, 8 assists, 1 turnover against the Knicks
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Michael Beasley, Suns: 3 points (1-11 FG), 2 rebounds, 0 assists versus the Hornets
Tyreke Evans, Kings: 5 points (1-7 FG), 5 rebounds, 0 assists, 2 turnovers versus the Grizzlies
Maurice Harkless, Magic: 7 points (3-12 FG), 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 3 turnovers against the Cavaliers



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking back[/h]
• Wesley Matthews had been cruising along as a steady and reliable fantasy play, but he rolled his ankle during Sunday's game and didn't return. It didn't look pretty, but the Portland Trail Blazers don't ball again until Wednesday, so if the injury isn't serious, he may be ready to play. If Matthews does sit out some games this week, Will Barton could be worth the roll of the dice. The rookie came out of nowhere Sunday to nearly post a triple-double (22 points, 13 rebounds, 6 dimes and 3 steals) in 32 minutes. All of those numbers were season highs, but if he gets some extra run with the season winding down, you never know.

• The Eric Gordon fiasco continued along this weekend, as coach Monty Williams benched him for most of the second half Friday after the two got into a shouting match during a timeout. Gordon returned to the starting lineup Sunday and had 17 points (4-11 FG) and 6 assists, so it looks like they patched things up. The trouble with Gordon the rest of the way is that he'll presumably skip one of their back-to-back games Tuesday or Wednesday, which would leave him with just four games, assuming he doesn't get hurt or tossed back in the doghouse once again.

• Joakim Noah finally returned to game action on Sunday but mustered only 13 points and 7 boards in 21 minutes. It's not clear whether the Bulls will limit him in back-to-back games (they have two more sets), but odds are you'll just have to toss him into your final weekly lineup and hope for the best, since the Bulls play a total of six more games. Luol Deng, on the other hand, skipped Sunday's contest to rest his sore hip. It sounds like he should be back soon, but Jimmy Butler (14 points, 2 3s Sunday) figures to be a decent replacement if Deng ends up sidelined later this week.

• With Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett back in the mix Sunday, the Boston Celtics tried out their new lineup with KG at PF, Green at SF and Pierce at SG. Unfortunately, despite playing and beating the lowly Washington Wizards, none of the trio posted stats of note. Presumably, the C's would like to roll this lineup out each night to get used to it before the playoffs, but with KG and Pierce dinged up and two sets of back-to-backs during their final five games, it's just as likely that those guys will see some DNP-CDs.

[h=3]Looking ahead[/h]
• Jose Calderon has been in and out of the lineup (including Sunday) due to a triceps strain. It's entirely unclear if he will be able to play Wednesday or any other games the rest of the way. To make matters worse, the Detroit Pistons have only four games remaining. Rodney Stuckey and, perhaps, Will Bynum will be viable fill-ins if Calderon sits.

• The Cleveland Cavaliers have six games left on their schedule, but unless they unexpectedly lift their no back-to-back game restriction on Kyrie Irving, he'll be available for only four of those contests. He may need only four games to outperform any bench player you may have who has six games, so you will probably have to make a tough call in setting your lineups when it comes to Irving.

• A right calf injury has forced Chandler Parsons to miss the past two games, but he hopes to return to action on Tuesday. If he can't play Tuesday, it sounds like he's close enough to get back in the mix Friday, but you'll need to check for updates.

[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
There are a ton of great high-end options at guard and forward Tuesday night, but things are a little thinner at center, since Tim Duncan and Al Horford don't have games, Joakim Noah is just coming back from his injury and Al Jefferson has a tough battle with the Oklahoma City Thunder. That leaves Dwight Howard (vs. NO), Nikola Pekovic (@GS) and Marc Gasol (vs. CHA) as the top options in my book. All three should have good games, but I like Gasol, versus what is probably the weakest frontcourt in the Association, as the top center play.

 

[HacheMan]

Impact of pace on final-week stats

By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

A part of me has always felt it unfortunate that the most important part of the fantasy basketball season -- championship week -- coincides with the close of the NBA regular season.

The end of the NBA season exists in a state of rotational anarchy. You're faced with shutdowns (Dwyane Wade?), sudden cutbacks in minutes (Tony Parker), and downright tanking (the Cleveland Cavaliers).

For 95 percent of the season, fantasy basketball features a very fair setup.

But right now, this is the other 5 percent.

You have to protect yourself.

It's of paramount importance that you follow all pieces of late-breaking NBA news; a single missed game or sudden reduction in playing time could spell the difference between winning and losing.

We're at the point in the schedule where Gregg Popovich could wake up, have a bad breakfast burrito, and decide to start Matt Bonner over Tim Duncan for the remainder of the regular season. This is not an embellishment.

Popovich doesn't care about your fantasy team. But I do. And I'm telling you to focus on the statistical aspects and trends more within your control. One numerical area you can harness to your benefit? Team-wide statistics.

Players and their minutes may come and go, but a team's system will remain largely unchanged. And, more importantly, the speed at which a team plays tends to stay the same, regardless of personnel.

The most underrated team-wide statistic in fantasy is pace. Pace uses a formula to estimate the amount of possessions a team has per game.

(The Pace formula is Team Possessions + Opponent Possessions / 2 x [Team Minutes Played / 5]).

The higher the pace, the more possessions a team burns up per game. The more possessions a team burns up per game, the more fantasy stats generated for that team's individual players.

I'm not just talking points. I'm talking all of the volume stats: points, rebounds, assists, 3-pointers, blocks, steals and turnovers.


Points scored per game -- and points allowed per game -- are important team-wide stats. So are offensive and defensive efficiency, and any of their percentage-based offshoots.

But pace drives all of the volume categories. It's a foundational metric.

You'll find the pace rankings over here. There, you'll see that the Houston Rockets lead the league in pace (98.6 possessions per game) by a comfortable margin.

Pace is why obscure players on Mike D'Antoni-coached teams suddenly break out to become fantasy factors. D'Antoni's teams are always among the league leaders in pace (the Lakers are fourth in pace at 96.9).

So when Earl Clark comes out of nowhere to throw up a line of 17 points, 12 rebounds, 5 blocks, a steal, and 3 3-pointers, it's surprising but not shocking. (Remember, it was also D'Antoni who made Linsanity possible. And Diaw-mania, but now I'm dating myself.)

Look at the power forward slot on the Rockets. Earlier this season, Patrick Patterson and Marcus Morris shared the duties, with Patterson eventually settling in as the not-too-firmly-entrenched starter.

Because Houston leads the NBA in pace, both players were productive despite averaging less than 26 minutes a game.

Patterson averaged 25.9 minutes per game in Houston and put up 11.6 points, 4.7 rebounds, 0.6 steals, 0.7 3-pointers and 0.4 blocks. Morris averaged 21.4 minutes, 8.6 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.4 3-pointers. That's a lot of production for a timeshare. Put that together and you have a top-40 player.

Post-Sacramento trade, different players have bubbled up at Houston's four (Donatas Motiejunas, Thomas Robinson, Greg Smith). Right now, we have D-League call-up Terrence Jones posting serviceable power forward numbers (13 points, 6 rebounds, 2 blocks Saturday night).

It doesn't matter who it is; because of Houston's high-pace system, a steady role is often more important than a random individual player. (I'm looking at you, Chandler "Homewrecker" Parsons.) Take a solid player and give him 25-plus minutes in a high-pace system, and the fantasy numbers will come.

Pace not only drives the fantasy fortunes of NBA teams, but also the teams they're playing.

The Denver Nuggets are second in pace for the season at 97.5 (the average NBA pace is 94.4). So while the Nuggets are generating 97.5 possessions for their players, they're giving the ball back to the other team 97.5 times a game. That's nearly six more possessions per game than a defensive-minded squad such as the Chicago Bulls (27th with a 91.9 pace).

That's why we circle games on the calendar like the Rockets-Nuggets romp on April 6. Odds are that those games become a track meet and a fantasy bonanza.


Sure enough, that matchup ended with Denver winning 132-114. A tremendous amount of fantasy production flowed from this game. Players like Francisco Garcia, Motiejunas, James Anderson, Anthony Randolph, Corey Brewer and Evan Fournier all had serviceable lines.

If you picked up a couple of those guys (as I did with Brewer and Garcia) for a spot start in deeper leagues, you were rewarded.

I want to look at some remaining games on the schedule that could result in high-pace production.

But I'm also going to add something extra, something that really wasn't possible before this season, individual player pace rates. This is thanks to one of the best statistical developments of the past few seasons: the evolution of NBA.com's stats section.

John Schumann and his colleagues have assembled a magnificent all-you-can-eat numerical cornucopia for people like myself who don't get out of the house that often. It's a tremendous engine that allows you to sort through basic and advanced stats, broken down by team and player.

One of its features is assignment of an individual pace rating for every NBA player. The number is just as high as a team-wide pace rating. For instance, Isaiah Thomas leads all NBA players pace over the past 15 games with a pace of 99.57. Sacramento's team-wide pace over the same span is 97.83 possessions.

I asked Schumann what the individual pace was meant to reflect, and he explained that it represented what pace that player's team played at when the player was on the court. That's why most of the top pace players will be from the top pace teams.

(The following pace ratings are taken only from the past 15 games to give you a more current snapshot. And I'm only listing games matching up teams with paces equal to or greater than 95. And I'm only listing players who have averaged at least 20 minutes per game over their last 15 games, but any random benchwarmer could pop up with a nice line, so monitor who's in line for minutes down the stretch.)

Tuesday, April 9
Phoenix Suns (97.83 pace) at Houston Rockets (97.87 pace)
Less-Owned High Pace Players To Watch: Terrence Jones (101.76 individual pace), Wesley Johnson (98.86), Luis Scola (98.75), Markieff Morris (98.12), Jared Dudley (96.75), Jermaine O'Neal (96.33)

Wednesday, April 10
Milwaukee Bucks (97.60) at Orlando Magic (96.58)
Less-Owned High Pace Players To Watch: Arron Afflalo (97.84), Jameer Nelson (97.20), Mike Dunleavy (97.13), Beno Udrih (96.18), Maurice Harkless (96.18), J.J. Redick (95.37)

Phoenix Suns (97.9) at Dallas Mavericks (95.02)
Less-Owned High Pace Players To Watch: Wesley Johnson (98.86), Luis Scola (98.75), Markieff Morris (98.12), Jared Dudley (96.75), Darren Collison (96.79), Jermaine O'Neal (96.33), Vince Carter (95.71)

Thursday, April 11
None

Friday, April 12
Milwaukee Bucks (97.60) at Atlanta Hawks (95.75)
Less-Owned High Pace Players To Watch: Mike Dunleavy Jr. (97.13), Ivan Johnson (95.84), DeShawn Stevenson (95.51), Kyle Korver (95.49), J.J. Redick (95.37), Devin Harris (95.18)

Denver Nuggets (96.74) at Dallas Mavericks (95.02)
Less-Owned High Pace Players To Watch: Corey Brewer (97.55), Darren Collison (96.79), Andre Miller (95.82), Vince Carter (95.71)

Golden State Warriors (95.07) at Los Angeles Lakers (95.96)
Less-Owned High Pace Players To Watch: Steve Blake (96.37), Antawn Jamison (96.26), Harrison Barnes (96.24), Metta World Peace (95.89), Jodie Meeks (95.48), Andrew Bogut (95.29), Earl Clark (94.71), Jarret Jack (94.53)

Saturday, April 13
Phoenix Suns (97.60) at Minnesota Timberwolves (95.29)
Less-Owned High Pace Players To Watch: Wesley Johnson (98.86), Luis Scola (98.75), Markieff Morris (98.12), Chase Budinger (96.79), Jared Dudley (96.75), Andrei Kirilenko (96.50), Jermaine O'Neal (96.33), Luke Ridnour (95.67), Derrick Williams (95.60), Jose Juan Barea (95.12), Dante Cunningham (95.08)

Sunday, April 14
Sacramento Kings (97.83) at Houston Rockets (97.87)
Less-Owned High Pace Players To Watch: Terrence Jones (101.76), Jason Thompson (98.75), John Salmons (97.52), Patrick Patterson (96.13)

Monday, April 15
Denver Nuggets (96.74) at Milwaukee Bucks (97.06)
Less-Owned High Pace Players To Watch: Corey Brewer (97.55), Mike Dunleavy (97.13), Andre Miller (95.82), J.J. Redick (95.37)
Houston Rockets (97.87) at Phoenix Suns (97.60)
Less-Owned High Pace Players To Watch: Terrence Jones (101.76), Wesley Johnson (98.86), Luis Scola (98.75), Markieff Morris (98.12), Jared Dudley (96.75), Jermaine O'Neal (96.33)

Tuesday, April 16
None

Wednesday, April 17
Phoenix Suns (97.60) at Denver Nuggets (96.74)
Less-Owned High Pace Players To Watch: Wesley Johnson (98.86), Luis Scola (98.75), Markieff Morris (98.12), Corey Brewer (97.55), Jared Dudley (96.75), Jermaine O'Neal (96.33), Andre Miller (95.82)

Houston Rockets (97.87) at Los Angeles Lakers (95.96)
Less-Owned High Pace Players To Watch: Terrence Jones (101.76), Steve Blake (96.37), Antawn Jamison (96.26), Metta World Peace (95.89), Jodie Meeks (95.48), Earl Clark (94.71).

 

[HacheMan]

2012-13 Player Rater All-Stars

By Seth Landman | Special to ESPN.com

Well, folks, we've just about reached the end of the 2012-13 NBA season, and let me tell you, it has been nice to have a full 82-game slate back in my life. We all have our opinions about which players have been the best this season, and certainly there's a great deal of value in drafting players late in the draft who manage to contribute to your team in small ways, but this column is about the best of the best, according to nothing but the raw, emotion-less numbers themselves. Ladies and gentlemen: your 2012-13 Fantasy Hoops All-Star Team!

Curry

Point guard: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors (No. 4 overall on the Player Rater, Average Draft Position: 42.8). It's easy to forget this now, but we were all worried about Curry's health coming into this season, but he's played in 74 of his team's 78 games so far, and while he was out there, he submitted the best season of a career that's starting to look really good again all of a sudden. The stat to look at, of course, is his 3-point shooting. Depending on what happens in the last few games, Curry will join the 2005-06 version of Ray Allen as the only player ever to make 3.4 3-pointers per game for a season, and he'll do it while shooting 45 percent from behind the arc. Curry could easily wind up being the greatest shooter of all time. It's within range.

Harden

Shooting guard: James Harden, Houston Rockets (No. 3 overall, ADP: 18.2). We've already got some major value on the board here, as Harden, like Curry, blew his projections out of the water. He's a star now, and should absolutely be a top-3 pick next season (I'd draft him ahead of Chris Paul and Curry for sure). Most impressive was his ability to get to the line, joining Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant and Kevin Martin as the only players to average 8.6 made free throws per game since David Robinson did it in 1993-94. One guy was more valuable than Harden this season from the line, and we'll deal with him right now.

Durant

Small forward: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 1 overall, ADP: 1.4). LeBron James may be the best basketball player in the world right now, but Durant dwarfs even The King where fantasy is concerned. Here's my favorite KD stat: assists are his worst category, but among small forwards, he trails only LeBron, Nicolas Batum and Paul Pierce in assists per game. Again, that's his worst fantasy category we're talking about. There's no argument for taking anyone other than Durant first overall next season, which is pretty amazing when you consider how good LeBron has been this season.

James

Power forward: LeBron James, Miami Heat (No. 2 overall, ADP: 1.6). Here we have our first player who actually underperformed his draft position. Of course, I'm joking a bit here. LeBron was magical this season; I haven't seen anyone play better basketball since Michael Jordan, and I'm even starting to have my doubts on that. Still, LeBron's free throw shooting is still a slight negative, so he has to take a backseat to Durant in fantasy leagues.

Ibaka

Center: Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 8 overall, ADP: 24.4). Ibaka's not the best center in the NBA by a long shot, but there's no more valuable single number in the fantasy game than the 3.1 blocks per game Ibaka has registered so far this season. He hasn't had a game without a blocked shot since the middle of February, and he's had at least five blocks in a game a ridiculous 18 times. At the same time, he's become a real weapon on the offensive end, as well, shooting 57 percent from the floor and upping his usage rate while maintaining the same rate of turnovers. He's a first-round pick from now on for sure.

Bryant

Forward: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers (No. 5 overall, ADP: 7.7). I was convinced that Kobe was getting drafted far too early in fantasy drafts this season, but it's clear now that I was wrong. On the other hand, the logic was sound; he played too many minutes per game last season at 38.5 per game (after just 33.9 per game the season before), and he posted his worst shooting percentages from the floor and behind the arc in more than a decade. Amazingly, he raised his efficiency this season while playing the same minutes per game, easing off his usage just a bit while his assist rate is higher than it's ever been. For a guy like Kobe to set a career high in a category like assists this late in his career is really remarkable. I still wouldn't draft him in the first round next season because of his age, but I'm willing to admit I'll probably be wrong again.

Paul

Guard: Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers (No. 6 overall, ADP: 3.4). Paul is another guy who slightly underperformed his draft position heading into the season, and there's a little more reason to worry in this case. He's still the best point guard in the league, but he plays just 33.2 minutes, which is the fewest of anyone on this list not listed at center. Also, his 3-point shooting has now declined for three straight seasons, and at 33 percent, it's slowly ceasing to be a weapon for him. All of this, for now, is secondary to the fact he's absolutely the third best player in the league and should still be a great fantasy option next season. I'd still take him ahead of anyone but Durant and LeBron, but I'm not feeling as confident as I did at the start of the season.

Westbrook

Util: Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 7 overall, ADP: 5.9). As usual, he never misses a game, and he puts up huge numbers. He's still not a good 3-point shooter, but he does everything else really well, and set a career high in rebounds per game with 5.4 this season. I can't believe that the state of the point guard position means that he could be the third point guard taken in drafts next season, but along with Curry, Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka, he's worth considering as a top-five pick next season.

George

Util: Paul George, SG/SF, Indiana Pacers (No. 9 overall, ADP: 41.3). George was great this season and has potential to keep getting better. That's saying something when you're already a top-10 fantasy player. The next step for George is to go to the LeBron James School for Efficient Small Forwards, because if George can learn to bully people on the block a bit more, he could raise his 42 percent shooting from the floor, the one blight on an otherwise stellar résumé.

Gasol

Util: Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies (No. 10 overall, ADP: 23.2). Gasol, quietly, has become the best center in basketball; a player around whom a team can easily orchestrate both a sound scheme on both ends of the floor. He blocks a ton of shots, and that's his most valuable category, but what really makes him special is his passing: his 4.0 assists per game leads all centers, and only Greg Monroe and Al Horford are even over 3.0. I could see an argument for Gasol as a top-five pick next season, depending on how you feel about Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry.

Duncan

Bench: Tim Duncan, PF/C, San Antonio Spurs (No. 11 overall, ADP: 57.6). It's weird to say about a guy who might be one of the seven best basketball players of all time, but Duncan really surprised just about everyone this season. He shot better than 80 percent from the line for the first time in his career. He posted his highest scoring and rebounding totals in three years. Most importantly, his 2.7 blocks per game tied his highest output in the past decade. It's a reminder for us that playing time isn't necessarily everything; LaMarcus Aldridge, for example, played more minutes in more games and scored more points, but Duncan's better all-around game trumped him in fantasy leagues. It will be very interested to see where Duncan goes in drafts next season; I doubt he'll slide past the top 50 again.

Williams

Bench: Deron Williams, PG, Brooklyn Nets (No. 12 overall, ADP: 5.3). OK, so, now we know that Williams isn't exactly what he used to be, but that means we also need to accept that what he currently is still seems pretty good. He's still only 28 years old, so it's possible he could show a little more improvement next season; since this year's All-Star Game, he's averaging 22.5 points, 7.8 assists and 2.8 3-pointers, and if he can match those numbers next season, he'll be a top-10 player again without question.

Batum

Nicolas Batum, SG/SF, Portland Trail Blazers (No. 13 overall, ADP: 58.7). He's banged up to end the season, but it was a great season for Batum. He made all the small improvements players need to make in order to become great players, but his biggest improvement was as a passer. He more than doubled his assist rate from the past few seasons, going from the level of Brandon Bass to the level of Stephen Curry. He's got a reasonable shot at posting 15 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists per game next season while doing his usual 3-pointers, steals and blocks combination, so there's an argument for drafting him in the first round if you like him.

 

[HacheMan]

Reggie Evans impacting fantasy playoffs

By Neil Tardy, Special to ESPN.com

On Tuesday, Reggie Evans needed only three quarters to amass 24 rebounds against the Philadelphia 76ers. It marked the fifth time in his past 12 games that Evans has accumulated 20 boards or more. He is averaging 17.8 rebounds over this span.

I couldn't help but wonder, and it turns out it's been 20 years since an NBA player has averaged more than 17.8 rebounds over an entire season. In 1992-93, Dennis Rodman put up 18.3 boards in his final season with the Detroit Pistons.

So yeah, it's easy to see why during the past couple of months Evans gone from a deep-league flier to a mainstream fantasy force. He makes the most sense in roto formats, since over the final few weeks of the season roster decisions are typically based on categorical needs. However, seeing that, as of Tuesday, Evans was on a roster in 80 percent of ESPN.com leagues, he is being added in a majority of head-to-head formats as well.

It will be interesting to see where Evans goes in drafts this fall. I wouldn't take him at any point, since I'm leery of one-category guys in general. (To me, Ryan Anderson is kind of the Reggie Evans of 3-pointers.) There's also the fact that, to get all those boards, you sacrifice free throw percentage. Since the break, Evans is shooting just 53.4 percent from the line on 3.7 attempts per game. That's not Dwight Howard-level carnage by any means, but playing close to 30 minutes a night, Evans gets to the stripe enough to matter.

But what matters now is fantasy championships, and Evans is undoubtedly playing a role in a fair number of those.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]TUESDAY, APRIL 9[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Carmelo Anthony, Knicks: 36 points (13-21 FG), 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 3-pointers against the Wizards
Jimmy Butler, Bulls: 28 points (10-12 FG), 3 3-pointers, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals versus the Raptors
Klay Thompson, Warriors: 30 points (10-19 FG), 6 3-pointers, 5 steals against the Timberwolves
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Ersan Ilyasova, Bucks: 4 points (2-5 FG), 5 rebounds, 3 assists versus the Heat
Ricky Rubio, Timberwolves: 5 points (0-10 FG), 5 rebounds, 6 assists versus the Warriors
Thaddeus Young, 76ers: 3 points (1-9 FG), 3 rebounds, 2 assists against the Nets



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• Jonas Valanciunas spent the night in a Chicago hospital after being carted off the court at the end of the Toronto Raptors' win over the Chicago Bulls. After a jump ball, Valanciunas apparently injured his neck in a collision with teammate Rudy Gay. The rookie's neck was placed in a brace before he was removed from the court.

• As for the game itself, with Luol Deng (hip) sitting out, Jimmy Butler played all 48 minutes and recorded a career-high 28 points. You don't need to understand usage rates to see Butler's fantasy value at the moment. The second-year pro is averaging 43 minutes a night over his past nine games.

• Metta World Peace was expected to miss six weeks following knee surgery. Instead, he missed only six games. It's tough to imagine him having much fantasy value over the final week of the season, though. MWP was limited to just four points and 15 minutes played against the New Orleans Hornets.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• After shooting just 23.5 percent (12-of-51) in his previous three games, Kyrie Irving went 10-of-20 in a 29-point effort against the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday. But he could be held out Wednesday when the Cleveland Cavaliers host the Pistons. Irving rested April 1 against the Atlanta Hawks, the last time the Cavs played on consecutive nights.

• Beno Udrih is the most popular add in ESPN.com leagues, and while Jameer Nelson (ankle) hasn't been ruled out for the season, there's no word on when or if he'll return. So expect Udrih to start again when the Orlando Magic host the Milwaukee Bucks. In his past five games, he is averaging 18.2 points, 7.8 assists, 4.0 rebounds, 2.0 3s and 1.8 steals.

• Chris Bosh (illness) didn't play Tuesday and isn't expected to accompany the Miami Heat when they visit the Washington Wizards. Dwyane Wade (ankle) will be with the team but seems unlikely to play. LeBron James should go, though following Tuesday's shootaround he said he will sit out some games prior to the playoffs.

• Josh Smith, Al Horford and Kyle Korver are expected to play when the Hawks visit the 76ers. All three were rested in Atlanta's previous game against the San Antonio Spurs on April 6, and Smith has apparently been dealing with a knee problem.

 

[HacheMan]

Last chance to make a move

By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

If you're currently vying for a fantasy championship, kudos. Huzzah. Maintain the focus that has brought you to the precipice of victory, and don't ease up in the final week. It often comes down to single-digit separation in categories when the winner is determined, and that one late-season waiver acquisition could be the difference maker. Finish your opponent "Mortal Kombat"-style.

If you're out of the running to win your league, however, and you're still reading this, that means you're still engaged. It's all about setting achievable goals and securing small victories.

You moved from fifth place to third? Small victory. You led the league in a category? Small victory. You played spoiler to your fantasy nemesis (if you've played in any league for more than one year, you likely have a fantasy nemesis) and ruined their chances for glory? Small victory.

Make it a game within a game and fantasy hoops can be exciting until the final game of the season.

Brian McKitish did this in Monday's Weekly Dish, which was quite helpful, so I'll update the number of games each team has remaining (entering Thursday):

3: Hawks, Pistons, Magic, Jazz, Lakers, Hornets, Suns, Wizards
4: Celtics, Bobcats, Mavericks, Nuggets, Warriors, Rockets, Pacers, Clippers, Grizzlies, Thunder, Trail Blazers, Kings, Spurs, Raptors, Nets, Cavaliers, Heat, Bucks, Timberwolves, 76ers
5: Bulls, Knicks

It's typically best to add guys who play more games, although if you're in a daily transaction league that allows streaming, spot-starting every day in order to maximize value and field a full starting roster is a canny strategy at this point in the season. Here are some widely available options:

Dion Waiters, SG, Cleveland Cavaliers (52.8 percent owned): Waiters returned Wednesday and scored 11 points in 15 minutes. He averaged 15.8 points on 51.4 percent shooting from the floor in February, his last full month of play before missing nine games with a knee injury. If you need scoring, Waiters puts points on the board; his 24.3 points per 48 minutes ranks 27th in the league, ahead of David Lee and Carlos Boozer. He is worth adding for four games if you play in a league where he was dropped.

Carl Landry, PF, Golden State Warriors (29.9 percent owned): An early-season contender for Sixth Man of the Year, Landry was superb in November, averaging 14.0 points on 56.5 percent shooting with 7.1 rebounds per game. But his scoring diminished in each of the next four months as the Warriors' rotation tightened up, and he averaged just 8.3 points per game in March, including a spell from March 6-25 when he averaged just 5.1 points per game. Landry's production has improved recently, as he is averaging 12.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game in his past six games while shooting 65.9 percent from the field. He doesn't provide peripheral stats, but he's efficient from the floor due to the fact that 46.5 percent of his shots come at the rim and he finishes with 70 percent accuracy. Landry also provides nice out-of-position production from the stripe, where he offers favorable frequency and efficiency. Of the 27 power forward-eligible players averaging at least 3.5 free throw attempts per game, Landry is one of four who knocks down 82 percent or better. I'm an enthusiast of players who help in both percentage-based categories, and if you need a late-season boost there, Landry is capable of bolstering your team's points and percentages.

Earl Clark, SF/PF, Los Angeles Lakers (12.2 percent owned): After averaging 10.6 points, 8.1 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks and 0.7 3-pointers per game in January and February combined, Clark fell off the map in March, averaging just 5.5 points and 4.7 rebounds per game. Perhaps his alma mater winning the NCAA championship inspired him to improve his play once again, as he has scored in double digits in three of his past five contests and is averaging 28.4 minutes per game in April compared to 20 per game in March. Metta World Peace did return to the Lakers' lineup Tuesday, although he has averaged just 14.5 minutes off the bench since returning and will likely be handled with kid gloves as the Lakers will want him fresh for a potential playoff run. Clark has exhibited the ability to post above-average rebounding numbers with across-the-board contribution in points, steals, blocks and 3s and is once again worth a roster spot, especially if you're streaming players since the Lakers have just three games remaining. Overall, this season has been a resounding success for Clark despite some inconsistency, as his PER, rebounding rate and true shooting percentage are all career bests and he'll likely find fantasy relevance again next season.

Nazr Mohammed, C, Chicago Bulls (4.1 percent owned): He's basically a warm body to fill Joakim Noah's role in Chicago, but Mohammed is a capable NBA vet with reliable skills and is averaging 8.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game this month. He has three double-digit rebounding efforts in his past five games, and although he won't provide anything outside of rebounding and blocks, the Bulls have five games remaining and are being cautious with Noah's foot in preparation for the playoffs. Sometimes it's all about who is getting the opportunity to contribute, and with injuries and remaining team games both in Mohammed's favor, he's definitely surfaced as a viable option for boards and blocks.

Jonas Jerebko, SF/PF, Detroit Pistons (2.1 percent owned): One of those players who seems to deserve more minutes than he gets, Jerebko is finally seeing more floor time, averaging 24.8 minutes per game this month with at least 15 points in four of his past seven games after hitting 15 points just three times all season prior to his current run. Despite his limited opportunity this season, Jerebko's per-minute stats are the best of his career, as he is averaging 15.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 1.2 3s per 40 minutes. He's also taking a higher percentage of his shots at the rim and a lower percentage between 16-23 feet, always a promising sign in the field goal percentage department. Nothing flashy, but Jerebko is averaging 12.6 points on 63.9 percent shooting with 4.8 rebounds, 0.8 3s and 1.2 steals per game over his past five, making him worth a spot start in deep leagues.

Francisco Garcia, SG/SF, Houston Rockets (1 percent owned): Anytime Garcia is sniffing regular playing time and is healthy enough to get on the floor I'm tempted to feature him, because I'm obsessed with his fantasy skill set. With Chandler Parsons resting his sore calf for the playoffs and Carlos Delfino missing the past four contests with illness, Garcia is getting more run. Based upon his career averages of 1.1 3s, 0.9 steals and 0.7 blocks in 22.1 minutes per game and 11.7 points, 2.7 3s, 1.2 steals and 0.6 blocks per game over his past six contests, I like him as a glue option in these waning days.

Norris Cole, PG, Miami Heat (0.9 percent owned): There are several reasons to like Cole down the stretch: The Miami starters will be handled gingerly in these final regular-season games as the team readies for the playoffs, and the Heat have five games left for him to provide fantasy production. Cole has capitalized on his recent increase in opportunity, averaging 10.3 points, 3.1 assists, 1.3 3s and 0.8 steals per game over his past 10 games. He's not efficient, so beware of adding him if you're locked in close percentage-based battles, but if you need some points, 3s, steals and assists, he is playing his best ball of the season and is capable of contributing in those four categories.

Evan Fournier, SG, Nuggets (0.7 percent owned): His profile pic makes him look like he'll steal your girl, and now the rookie Frenchman has burst on the scene with Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari's injuries and stolen the hearts of Nuggets fans. He has three games with at least 17 points in his past five contests, and despite the small sample size, he is averaging 23.1 points, 5.0 assists, 3.0 3s and 2.2 steals per 48 minutes, indicating legitimate fantasy relevance if he's seeing around 20 minutes on a regular basis. He has displayed the ability to shoot and slash, and with the Nuggets lacking in Euroswag with Gallo out, Fournier has a prime opportunity to help fantasy teams now as well as make an impression upon fantasy owners for next season, especially with Andre Iguodala becoming a free agent.

John Jenkins, SG, Atlanta Hawks (0.5 percent owned): The Hawks play only three more games and he's super streaky, but I love Jenkins for the long term. His stroke is a thing of beauty, and he has brandished it recently, averaging 22 points and 3.0 3s per game in his past two contests. He'll be on my sleeper list for next season, since 3-point shooting skills like Jenkins has are special (shooting 42.4 percent from downtown as a rookie and averaged 3.8 treys per game last season at Vanderbilt) and will translate into fantasy value as soon as he's getting regular playing time. Looks like the Hawks are going to employ him as a primary scorer off the bench for the final games of the season, so if 3s are what you need, Jenkins is as pure as they come.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=3]Harris, Vucevic a magical duo[/h]
By Seth Landman, Special to ESPN.com

Tobias Harris and Nikola Vucevic continue to make Magic general manager Rob Hennigan look good. Each guy went for 30 points on Wednesday night in an overtime win over the Bucks, and they combined for 39 rebounds and 10 assists as well. This is the time of year when good players on bad teams can really make a name for themselves, so keep an eye on both players the rest of the way; depending on what moves the Magic makes in the offseason, I could see an argument for either guy as a potential top-50 player in fantasy next season.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]WEDNESDAY, APRIL 10[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Kobe Bryant, Lakers: 47 points (18-18 FT), 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 4 blocks against the Trail Blazers
John Henson, Bucks: 17 points, 25 rebounds, 3 assists, 7 blocks versus the Magic
Nikola Vucevic, Magic: 30 points (14-26 FG), 20 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 blocks against the Bucks
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Jeff Green, Celtics: 11 points (4-17 FG), 4 rebounds, 2 assists versus the Nets
O.J. Mayo, Grizzlies: 6 points (2-10 FG), 5 rebounds, 6 assists versus the Suns
Greivis Vasquez, Hornets: 4 points (2-6 FG), 2 assists, 1 steal against the Kings



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• John Henson hadn't been playing much of late for the Bucks, but he blew up in the loss to the Magic to the tune of 25 rebounds and seven blocked shots. Henson has chance to be extremely valuable in fantasy leagues next season if he can lock down the starting power forward gig in Milwaukee, and games like this make him the odds-on favorite to do just that.

• Andre Drummond had his first great game for the Pistons since returning to the lineup, posting 29 points on 10-for-11 shooting from the floor in 34 minutes in a win over the Cavaliers. He also threw in 11 rebounds and should obviously be started in all leagues for the rest of the Pistons' schedule.

• Atlanta Hawks rookie John Jenkins had his second straight big game, going for 21 points and six assists in 33 minutes off the bench in a win over the 76ers on Wednesday night. He could be a good source of 3-pointers in deep leagues for the final few games of the season.

• Ray Allen got to make a cameo as the Heat's best player against the Wizards with LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade all out of the lineup. Allen had 23 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists and 4 steals, and he could be in line for a few more big games if the Heat keep resting their stars down the stretch.

• Andre Iguodala had a triple-double for the Nuggets in a win over the Spurs, finishing with 12 points, 13 rebounds, 10 assists and three steals. He's now averaging 9.2 assists over his past five games, proving to be a great source in that category when Ty Lawson is out of the lineup.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• The Knicks will continue to be without just about their entire front line against the Bulls on Thursday night, and considering Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson will both be out as well, it should be an interesting matchup between undersized lineups. All the same, I'd be expecting a huge night out of Carlos Boozer, who should be going up against smaller defenders all night.

• Everyone is healthy for the matchup between the Warriors and the Thunder, and that matchup has been particularly kind to Kevin Martin this season. The Thunder sixth man is averaging 20.0 points on 55 percent shooting from the floor in three games against the Warriors this season while also chipping in 3.3 3s, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals.

[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
Even against the Bulls, I have to go with Carmelo Anthony here. Anthony's averaging 40.6 points in his past five games, and has done so against some pretty decent defensive clubs. Until he goes cold, it's worth riding out the hot streak.

 

[HacheMan]

John Wall top-20 option in 2013-14

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com

Yet another fantasy season is in the books, and after the wild ride that was the 2012-13 season, it's now time to start looking ahead to 2013-14. And what better way to do that than to take a preliminary look at the top 100 for next season? Since much will change between now and September, these rankings will evolve throughout what promises to be an action-packed spring and summer.

To complement the ranks, here are some players who have the potential to take their game to the next level, along with some thoughts on those who will be returning from injury in 2013-14.
[h=3]The Top 130 for '13-14[/h]Note: Brian McKitish's top 100 players are ranked for their fantasy value for the 2013-14 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses. 1. Kevin Durant, OKC (3)
2. LeBron James, MIA (1)
3. James Harden, HOU (5)
4. Chris Paul, LAC (4)
5. Stephen Curry, GS (6)
6. Russell Westbrook, OKC (9)
7. Paul George, IND (10)
8. Serge Ibaka, OKC (15)
9. Kyrie Irving, CLE (11)
10. Kevin Love, MIN (NR)
11. Deron Williams, BKN (7)
12. Nicolas Batum, POR (94)
13. Dwyane Wade, MIA (93)
14. Carmelo Anthony, NY (2)
15. Marc Gasol, MEM (25)
16. Derrick Rose, CHI (NR)
17. Ricky Rubio, MIN (8)
18. John Wall, WSH (19)
19. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (17)
20. Josh Smith, ATL (30)
21. Ty Lawson, DEN (NR)
22. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR (26)
23. Jrue Holiday, PHI (16)
24. Damian Lillard, POR (20)
25. Brook Lopez, BKN (14)
26. Al Jefferson, UTAH (39)
27. Anthony Davis, NO (36)
28. Al Horford, ATL (29)
29. Paul Pierce, BOS (24)
30. Brandon Jennings, MIL (18)
31. Rajon Rondo, BOS (NR)
32. David Lee, GS (27)
33. Rudy Gay, TOR (47)
34. Tony Parker, SA (57)
35. Joakim Noah, CHI (51)
36. Larry Sanders, MIL (13)
37. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (21)
38. Kemba Walker, CHA (34)
39. Greg Monroe, DET (54)
40. Blake Griffin, LAC (31)
41. Mike Conley, MEM (23)
42. J.R. Smith, NY (22)
43. Dwight Howard, LAL (32)
44. Nikola Vucevic, ORL (60)
45. Greivis Vasquez, NO (42)
46. Monta Ellis, MIL (28)
47. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (53)
48. Chris Bosh, MIA (41)
49. Isaiah Thomas, SAC (37)
50. Ryan Anderson, NO (56)
51. Klay Thompson, GS (38)
52. Bradley Beal, WSH (NR)
53. Roy Hibbert, IND (33)
54. Tim Duncan, SA (40)
55. Danilo Gallinari, DEN (NR)
56. Jeff Teague, ATL (35)
57. Goran Dragic, PHO (59)
58. Zach Randolph, MEM (46)
59. Tyreke Evans, SAC (48)
60. Tobias Harris, ORL (74)
61. Wesley Matthews, POR (65)
62. George Hill, IND (67)
63. Thaddeus Young, PHI (55)
64. Luol Deng, CHI (43)
65. Andre Iguodala, DEN (49)
66. Kevin Garnett, BOS (80)
67. Danny Granger, IND (NR)
68. Steve Nash, LAL (89)
69. David West, IND (71)
70. Moe Harkless, ORL (86)
71. Pau Gasol, LAL (75)
72. Paul Millsap, UTAH (83)
73. Kenneth Faried, DEN (64)
74. Andre Drummond, DET (102)
75. Jose Calderon, DET (88)
76. Jeremy Lin, HOU (66)
77. Lou Williams, ATL (NR)
78. Nikola Pekovic, MIN (58)
79. Omer Asik, HOU (68)
80. Jameer Nelson, ORL (103)
81. Tristan Thompson, CLE (70)
82. Amare Stoudemire, NY (NR)
83. J.J. Hickson, POR (61)
84. Anderson Varejao, CLE (NR)
85. Jeff Green, BOS (50)
86. Chandler Parsons, HOU (73)
87. Jamal Crawford, LAC (69)
88. Kobe Bryant, LAL (12)
89. Joe Johnson, BKN (76)
90. Derrick Favors, UTAH (122)
91. Kyle Lowry, TOR (84)
92. Raymond Felton, NY (77)
93. O.J. Mayo, DAL (101)
94. Tyson Chandler, NY (78)
95. Andrew Bynum, PHI (NR)
96. Eric Gordon, NO (99)
97. Jonas Valanciunas, TOR (97)
98. Carlos Boozer, CHI (45)
99. Evan Turner, PHI (81)
100. Andrei Kirilenko, MIN (62)
101. Marcin Gortat, PHO (NR)
102. Gerald Henderson, CHA (63)
103. Manu Ginobili, SA (NR)
104. Kawhi Leonard, SA (72)
105. Kevin Martin, OKC (104)
106. Derrick Williams, MIN (114)
107. Nene, WSH (NR)
108. Daniel Green, SA (85)
109. Andre Miller, DEN (87)
110. Spencer Hawes, PHI (44)
111. Arron Afflalo, ORL (NR)
112. Dion Waiters, CLE (NR)
113. Reggie Evans, BKN (82)
114. Corey Brewer, DEN (90)
115. Jarrett Jack, GS (79)
116. Nate Robinson, CHI (52)
117. Emeka Okafor, WSH (91)
118. Mario Chalmers, MIA (92)
119. Mo Williams, UTAH (95)
120. Wilson Chandler, DEN (96)
121. DeMar DeRozan, TOR (98)
122. Shawn Marion, DAL (100)
123. Mike Miller, MIA (105)
124. Gordon Hayward, UTAH (106)
125. Jerryd Bayless, MEM (107)
126. Andrew Bogut, GS (108)
127. Vince Carter, DAL (109)
128. Jimmy Butler, CHI (110)
129. Wesley Johnson, PHO (111)
130. Beno Udrih, ORL (112)

[h=3]Taking the next step[/h]
John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards: Make no mistake: Wall is real, and he's spectacular. After averaging 20.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, 7.7 assists, 1.5 steals and 0.9 blocks while shooting 45.7 percent from the floor and 82.1 percent from the line since the All-Star break, Wall ranks fourth on our Player Rater over the past 30 days. There's not much else to say about Wall's second half breakout. He's simply playing up to the potential that made him the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 NBA draft. After watching Wall dominate the competition the past two months, I have little doubt that he will be a top-20 player in 2013-14 provided that he can keep himself healthy.

Anthony Davis, PF/C, New Orleans Hornets: Davis' rookie season could technically be considered a mild disappointment given the high and almost unreasonable expectations placed on him, but a deeper look at his numbers suggest that he's a future first-rounder in the making. Slowed by various nagging injuries, Davis still managed to post 13.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.8 blocks in just 28.8 minutes per game as a rookie. Those are some terrific per-minute numbers, and it is quite obvious that Davis has an extremely bright future ahead of him in the fantasy world. I'm a little concerned about his propensity for injury, but I'm more encouraged by his 15.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.5 blocks while shooting 52.0 percent from the floor and 81.2 percent from the line in 24 games after the All-Star break to finish out his rookie season.

Bradley Beal, SG, Wizards: Injuries may have kept Beal from showing his true potential as a rookie, but he flashed enough talent and potential to have fantasy owners dreaming about what he could do in a full season with ample playing time. Beal finished his season with 16.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, 0.9 steals and 2.1 3-pointers in his past 12 contests, proving that he is more than just a deadly marksman from downtown. He needs only to stay healthy to be considered a breakout candidate for 2013-14.

Andre Drummond, PF/C, Detroit Pistons: A per-minute warrior for much of the season, Drummond has flashed enough promise to be considered a prime breakout candidate as he enters his sophomore campaign. Averaging 7.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, 0.9 steals and 1.6 blocks in just 20.3 minutes per game on the season, Drummond is only a year away from being a nightly double-double threat with plenty of steals and blocks. He'll need to do better from the free throw line (36.2 percent on the season) before he can be an elite option, but his upside is still off the charts.

Maurice Harkless/Tobias Harris, Orlando Magic: The Magic may have slumped to 20-60 on the season, but at least they've been able to get 19-year-old Harkless and 20-year-old Harris plenty of run in the second half. Harris has posted 17.1 points, 8.7 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 1.4 blocks and 1.1 3-pointers since the All-Star break while Harkless has posted a versatile 13.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.6 steals, 0.9 blocks and 0.9 3-pointers during the same span. Both have shown more than enough promise to be considered midround prospects in 2013-14.

[h=3]Returning from injury[/h]
• I'd love to see Derrick Rose in game action before putting him inside my top 20 for 2013-14, but surely he'll be 100 percent by the time October rolls around, right? I'm sure no one has forgotten that he averaged 21.8 points, 7.9 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.7 blocks and 1.4 3-pointers during the 2011-12 season, but Rose's game is highly dependent on speed, quickness and explosion so I'll reserve the right to drop him down if he doesn't look like the same player by the time next season rolls around.

• Both Rajon Rondo and Louis Williams had knee surgery in mid-February and both are tentatively targeting a return to the court by opening night next season. There's still a long way to go in the rehab process, so we'll be sure to keep an eye on their progress as we get closer to the season. Rondo was cruising with 13.7 points, 5.6 rebounds, 11.1 assists and 1.8 steals prior to the injury, while Williams averaged an underrated 14.1 points, 3.6 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.8 3-pointers for the Hawks before shutting it down.

• Kevin Love would probably be ranked third to fifth overall if we could trust that he'd be able to keep himself on the court for a full season. But we're also talking about a guy who has missed an average of 21.4 games per season in his 5-year career. It may be a little premature to call him injury-prone just yet, but I don't think I'd spend a top-5 pick on someone who's had trouble staying healthy.

• Anderson Varejao averaged 14.1 points, 14.4 rebounds and 1.5 steals in 25 games before suffering a quad injury and a blood clot that forced him to miss the remainder of the 2012-13 season. Varejao has been incredibly productive when on the court, but has really struggled to remain healthy in his 9-year career. He'll be a high-risk/high-reward selection in 2013-14.

• You'll notice that Kobe Bryant still makes the top 100 despite suffering a torn Achilles on Friday. It's still far too early to tell if Kobe will be ready to contribute at any point next season, but if there's one guy I'm not going to doubt, it's Kobe Bryant.

• I didn't want to rank Andrew Bynum in the top 100, but I slid him in at 95th overall only because this is a guy who averaged 18.7 points, 11.8 boards and 1.9 rebounds in 2011-12. Of course, we're still talking about the same guy who has missed an average of 35.3 games per season over the past six years. As high-risk/high-reward as they come, I'll let someone else draft Bynum next season.

 

[HacheMan]

Kobe Bryant's value in 2013 fantasy drafts

By Tom Carpenter, Special to ESPN.com

With one simple, routine basketball move, Kobe Bryant's season came to an end Friday. Here in Fantasyland, there isn't much sense in looking back and debating whether he should have been pushed to the max by playing so many minutes at this stage of the season and at his age. Instead, we need to look ahead to next season and ponder what we can expect from him as a fantasy option at age 35 as he recovers from a torn Achilles tendon.

The Los Angeles Lakers announced that Bryant will miss at least six to nine months; six months would get him back for the season opener, while nine months would put his return a little before the All-Star break. But playing in games and performing like the Black Mamba are two different things. As our Stephania Bell noted, "Perhaps the most challenging element of a basketball player's game to regain following this type of surgery, however, is sudden acceleration, the quickness off the foot necessary to make a sharp move around an opponent. Athletes will often say that it is this explosiveness, this quickness that takes nearly a year to regain, perhaps long after returning to competition."

Obviously, quick bursts have long been a central part of Kobe's ability to create space for jumpers and get to the rim. If it takes a full year before he's up to speed -- and it seems like a reasonable assumption, considering his age -- then he likely will be a shell of his former self for at least the first few months after he returns to the hardwood.

In the short term, many fantasy owners are going to have to decide this summer whether to hold on to Bryant in keeper leagues. That includes Gary, who asked me via Twitter (@AtomicHarpua) whether he should "keep Deron Williams, Joakim Noah or Brook Lopez over Kobe now?" Unless Bryant truly is on a miracle pace by October, I think all three make better keepers than Kobe, though I'd lean toward D-Will, if he gets his ankles taken care of. In general, I wouldn't keep Kobe over any younger and safer option.

In the long term, I suspect that I will simply steer clear of drafting Bryant in the fall. I already was passing by him for younger options the past few years, because I feared an injury like this would happen in midseason and crush my fantasy team. Even if he is nearly ready to play, I will hesitate to draft him for the reasons stated above -- simply too much risk in the early rounds of a draft. Before you pull the trigger, you should consider how long it's taken Derrick Rose to return from his ACL, that Dominique Wilkins is the only aging stud of note who returned from a ruptured Achilles and performed reasonably well, and that ruptured Achilles tendons ended the careers of Isaiah Thomas, Charles Barkley and Shaquille O'Neal.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]SUNDAY, APRIL 14[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Rudy Gay, Raptors: 26 points (10-19 FG), 3 3-pointers, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals against the Nets
James Harden, Rockets: 29 points (11-16 FG), 4 3-pointers, 4 rebounds, 9 assists, 2 steals against the Kings
Andre Iguodala, Nuggets: 28 points (11-17 FG), 2 3-pointers, 7 rebounds, 9 assists, 3 steals, 3 blocks versus the Blazers
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Ray Allen, Heat: 2 points (1-6 FG), 2 rebounds, 1 assists, 4 turnovers against the Bulls
Wilson Chandler, Nuggets: 11 points (2-13 FG), 2 3-pointers, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 turnovers versus the Blazers
Kyrie Irving, Cavaliers: 4 points (1-6 FG), 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 turnovers against the 76ers



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• Greivis Vasquez returned Sunday from a one-game absence due to a sprained ankle, but he mustered just 11 points (5 of 16 FG) and 4 dimes against the Dallas Mavericks. He should be good to go for the New Orleans Hornets' season finale rematch against the Mavs Wednesday. Vasquez's return didn't limit the hot play of Brian Roberts much; he played 26 minutes off the bench Sunday and had 13 points (5-8 FG), 6 dimes, 0 turnovers and 3 3s. In his past three games, Roberts has tallied 48 points, 22 dimes, 3 steals and 7 3s and figures to remain a solid plug-in option Wednesday.

• DeMar DeRozan went off for 36 points (12-22 FG, 9-9 FT) Sunday and even knocked down 3 3s. Unfortunately, it was a quintessential DeRozan game, because he did literally nothing else of note, posting zeroes in every other statistical category besides pulling down five rebounds. In fact, his 3 3s equaled his total from beyond the arc over his past 30 games. That means he's great if you are in a tight race for points in your roto league, but as a well-rounded fantasy option, he comes up way short.

• After missing four games with a calf injury, Chandler Parsons returned Sunday and had 13 points (5-7 FG), 2 3s, 5 boards and 5 dimes. Since the Houston Rockets are scrapping for the No. 6 seed in the West, Parsons may well play their final two games Monday and Wednesday, though you'll want to check for updates to make sure he isn't an unexpected late scratch.

• I thought the Denver Nuggets might ease Ty Lawson back into game action slowly, but he played 19 minutes off the bench in his return Friday from a torn plantar fascia and 31 minutes Sunday in his return to the starting lineup. He finished with 12 points, 10 assists and 3 steals in 31 minutes against the Portland Trail Blazers Sunday and appears set to take part in the Nuggets' final two games, Monday and Wednesday. Lawson's start pushed Andre Miller back to the bench, where he played only 18 minutes Sunday and had just two points and one assist. He should do better than that in the final two games, but Lawson's presence will cap Miller's upside.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Here are a few things we know about coach Doug Collins: He knows fundamentals; he knows Xs and Os; he grates on every last nerve of his players after a while; he produced the lowest-scoring team in the NBA (92.9 ppg) this season; he is out as the Philadelphia 76ers head coach. Looking ahead to next season, we should see the reins taken off a number of their players. Who will benefit the most will depend a lot on Andrew Bynum's health, whether he sticks with the team, who the new coach is and how the roster fleshes out. However, we should have higher expectations for their top scorers next season, regardless of those other factors.

• DeMarcus Cousins picked up his 16th technical foul of the season Sunday, which would result in an automatic suspension for Monday's game. However, it sounds like he has a decent chance of getting the call rescinded, which would keep him active Monday. Check for updates this afternoon.

• Jose Calderon is expected to miss Monday's game due to his triceps injury, and it sounds likely that he will skip the Detroit Pistons' season finale Wednesday, too. He seems to be a good fit with the Pistons, but time will tell whether he re-signs as an unrestricted free agent this summer. Another Piston, Andre Drummond, will be a game-time call this evening due to an ankle injury.

• The New York Knicks have locked up the No. 2 spot in the East, which means that coach Mike Woodson is planning to rest his core players for the final two games of the regular season. As is the case for every game at this stage of the season, you'll want to check for updates, but we should expect Carmelo Anthony, Raymond Felton and J.R. Smith to join Tyson Chandler on the bench. Chris Copeland, Iman Shumpert, Pablo Prigioni and even Jason Kidd could be decent plug-ins.

• The Indiana Pacers have the 3-seed in hand, which means that Paul George, George Hill, David West and Roy Hibbert likely take a seat until the postseason. That would open up minutes for Lance Stephenson, Tyler Hansbrough, Jeff Pendergraph, D.J. Augustin and Gerald Green in the Pacers' final two games.

• Check for updates on the Miami Heat before tonight's game, but Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh likely will take the night off.

• With nothing left to play for, it's unlikely that LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum or Wesley Matthews will play again this season, since all three are dinged up.

[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
Tuesday schedules are typically light anyway, but our Fastbreak choices have been thinned out even more due to injuries and playoff teams resting players. I like the Atlanta Hawks' matchup with the Toronto Raptors, though. So, I think center Al Horford is in position to have a big night, and the same goes for teammate Josh Smith at forward.

 

[HacheMan]

'13-14 keeper ranks, auction values

By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

To get you prepared for next season now, let's dive into my highly speculative keeper list!

[h=3]Tier 1: Still Worth It, No Matter What[/h]
1. Kevin Durant, SF, OKC ($82, No. 1 in 2012-13 rankings)
2. LeBron James, SF/PF, MIA ($74, No. 2)

They won't be valued this high come next fall's list, but this is what they're worth. And yes, I think Durant is $8 better than LeBron. I'm aware LeBron posted one of the best months in the history of basketball this season, enlivening field goal percentages throughout Fantasyland.

But what people don't realize is that Durant had that type of impact on free throw percentage over an entire season. That's really the difference between the two.

Each player has their strengths and super-strengths, but Durant's free throw shooting was sublime this year. When you couple Durant's .907 percentage with a large volume of attempts (9.4 per game), what you have is perhaps the greatest single-season free throw performance of all time.

Several skinny little guards have shot 90 percent from the line over the past decade, but they don't get fouled with the frequency of a Kevin Durant. Volume plus efficiency is what great fantasy numbers are all about, and Durant put on a clinic this season.

[h=3]Tier 2: The Future[/h]
3. Andre Drummond, PF/C, DET ($21)
4. Jonas Valanciunas, C, TOR ($8)
5. Bradley Beal, SG, WAS ($9)
6. Tobias Harris, SF/PF, ORL ($12)
7. Derrick Favors, PF/C, UTA ($7)
8. Dion Waiters, SG, CLE ($5)
9. Brandon Knight, PG/SG, DET ($4)
10. Nerlens Noel, C, CHA ($4)
11. Ben McLemore, SG, PHO ($4)
12. Eric Bledsoe, PG, LAC ($4)
13. Marcus Smart, PG, ORL ($5)
14. Otto Porter, SF, CLE ($4)

I honestly don't know how much Drummond will go for this fall. It depends on the level of hype he accrues between now and the end of training camp. But you might get a similar amount of upside for less by bidding on Valanciunas, who's had a similar -- yet under the radar -- late breakout. Drummond's historically terrifying free throw percentage gives me a lot of concern.

I'm listing the rookies here by team based on Chad Ford's last mock draft. If Noel is healthy, he'll be the first rookie off the board, but keep an eye on whichever point guard ends up in Orlando. That could be a Damian Lillard-type situation.

Noel is listed here for cheap because of the knee situation. If Noel's ACL rehab looks like it's going to stretch well into 2014, he might be a dirt-cheap draft-and-stash candidate.

If Bledsoe lands a starting gig before the start of next season, add $15 to his price.

[h=3]Tier 3: Safe Foundational Futures Bets[/h]
15. Chris Paul, PG, LAC ($60)
16. Stephen Curry, PG/SG, GS ($59)
17. Serge Ibaka, PF/C, OKC ($50)
18. James Harden, SG, HOU ($60)
19. Marc Gasol, C, MEM ($47)
20. Russell Westbrook, PG, OKC ($58)
21. Kyrie Irving, PG, CLE ($50)

It's getting harder and harder to justify blowing $50 or more dollars on a point guard. The balance of statistical power has shifted so heavily to a sea of quality floor generals that a $60 Chris Paul or Russell Westbrook is becoming a needless extravagance.

If you want to blow $50 or $60, it's probably better spent on a scarcer position like center or shooting guard.

[h=3]Tier 4: Too Late To Get In On The Ground Floor[/h]
22. John Wall, PG, WAS ($42)
23. Anthony Davis, PF, NOR ($38)
24. Damian Lillard, PG, POR ($42)
25. Ricky Rubio, PG, MIN ($28)
26. Larry Sanders, PF/C, MIL ($24)

These are all players with top-20 upside who have yet to hit their ceilings. You're just going to have to know when to bail out of the bidding, as every player on this list will come with a heaping amount of preseason praise and expectations.

If Wall continues rolling into next season, it will be interesting to see if he beats out Mike Conley for No. 5 point guard overall.

From a keeper perspective, Davis' durability is a bit of a concern. I'm not going to rush to judgment and proclaim him Marcus Camby 2.0, but the man missed 18 games this season, and finished it with a sprained MCL.

[h=3]Tier 5: Under $20 Breakout Candidates[/h]
27. Gordon Hayward, SG/SF, UTA ($12)
28. Chandler Parsons, SF, HOU ($18)
29. Nikola Vucevic, PF/C, ORL ($15)
30. Ersan Ilyasova, SF/PF, MIL ($20)
31. Spencer Hawes, PF/C, PHI ($10)
32. George Hill, PG/SG, IND ($14)
33. Kawhi Leonard, SF, SA ($12)
34. Nikola Pekovic, C, MIN ($12)
35. Danny Green, SG/SF, SA ($8)
36. Amir Johnson, PF/C, TOR ($11)
37. Greivis Vasquez, PG, NOR ($16)
38. Kenneth Faried, PF, DEN ($7)
39. Glen Davis, PF/C, ORL ($4)
40. Isaiah Thomas, PG, SAC ($7)
41. Marcus Thornton, SG, SAC ($4)
42. Tristan Thompson, PF/C, CLE ($5)
43. J.J. Redick, SG, MIL ($7)
44. DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF, TOR ($6)

A lot of these players were hamstrung by timeshare situations, which might or might not shake out by the fall. Hopefully, post-Skiles, Ilyasova's playing time is here to stay. A season's worth of Chandler Parsons-type run could turn him into a top-25 fantasy player.

I like Orlando to remain as an off-the-map fantasy hotbed next season. Think about all the players they put on the fantasy radar: Tobias Harris, Nikola Vucevic, Glen Davis, Beno Udrih, Andrew Nicholson, E'Twaun Moore. Not all of them stayed on the radar, but the Magic are a case study as to why you need to pay attention to struggling franchises.

Because of Keith Smart, I'm conflicted about listing any Kings as breakout candidates. The talent and upside is there, but it's such a goopy, pouty, rotational mess that it's hard to think of a single King as a reliable season-long bet.

[h=3]Tier 6: Veterans You Can Steal For Under $25[/h]45. Jeff Green, SF/PF, BOS ($24)
46. J.R. Smith, SG/SF, NY ($22)
47. O.J. Mayo, SG, DAL ($18)
48. Jeff Teague, PG, ATL ($24)
49. Roy Hibbert, C, IND ($22)
50. Kemba Walker, PG/SG, CHA ($23)
51. Jose Calderon, PG, DET ($17)
52. Wesley Matthews, SG/SF, POR ($12)
53. Martell Webster, WAS, ($10)
54. Jeremy Lin, PG, HOU ($24)
55. Brandon Bass, PF/C, BOS ($8)
56. Mo Williams, PG/SG, UTA ($7)
57. J.J. Hickson, PF/C, POR ($10)

I pay a lot of attention to how players close out the final month of the season. J.R. Smith, Kemba Walker and Jeff Green are 16th, 18th and 19th overall since March 16.

Pre- and post-All-Star Weekend, Roy Hibbert logged one of biggest splits in the NBA. He's shaken off his injuries and is looking like a top-10 center heading into next season. As of this writing, Mo Williams is absolutely unconscious, and should be a great value buy.

Here's your grain of salt: Some of these players got more playing time than usual due to other injuries on their respective teams (Green, Smith, Bass) or just a lack of overall depth (Matthews, Hickson).

[h=3]Tier 7: Dented Stars[/h]
58. Kevin Love, PF/C, MIN ($48)
59. Derrick Rose, PG, CHI ($45)
60. Rajon Rondo, PG, BOS ($38)
61. Danilo Gallinari, SF/PF, DEN ($12)
62. Marcin Gortat, C, PHO ($12)
63. Joakim Noah, PF/C, CHI ($12)
64. Anderson Varejao, PF/C, CLE ($14)
65. Eric Gordon, SG, NOR ($18)
66. Pau Gasol, PF/C, LAL ($10)
67. Andrew Bynum, C, PHI ($18)
68. Kobe Bryant, SG, LAL ($20)

This season produced a lot of trips to the operating room. It ended with over a dozen good-to-elite fantasy players with injury concerns. That can be good news for fantasy owners, who could luck into some bargains.

We don't know when Bynum will play again, let alone for what team. Rose will be back, and I'll assume he'll be as good -- or better -- than he was last season. Ditto for Rondo and Love. Love's injury was a freakish one, and I really could have placed him in the top 20 as a safe foundational futures bet. If all appears well in the preseason, I'll bump him up.

Aside from Bynum, Kobe's value is the biggest shot in the dark. It would be unprecedented for Bryant to come back from an Achilles rupture (a full tear, mind you) at his previous level of play. I'm not even taking his age into account. It would be unprecedented if he were 24 instead of 34.

I'm rooting for a full recovery to happen. I can't think of a player I've had a larger opinion swing on over the past 10 years. But my gut tells me he'll be a solid-to-very good player the second half of next season, then respectably diminished for however many additional seasons he decides to play.

[h=3]Tier 8: Reliable Investments Under $30[/h]69. Greg Monroe, PF/C, DET ($23)
70. Brandon Jennings, PG, MIL ($30)
71. Klay Thompson, SG/SF, GS ($24)
72. Goran Dragic, PG, PHO ($27)
73. Ryan Anderson, PF, NOR ($15)
74. Paul Millsap, PF, UTA ($22)
75. Kyle Lowry, PG, TOR ($14)
76. Rudy Gay, SF, TOR ($28)

These are all players I expect to outperform their pricetags in 2013-14.

Lowry, in particular, should be primed for nice return on what promises to be a small keeper investment. He had sort of a lost campaign this season, but is cemented at point guard for the Raptors, who have a nice, underrated fantasy rotation going (Lowry, DeRozan, Gay, Bargnani/Amir Johnson, Valanciunas).

Millsap's value is tied to where he goes. Utah can't keep all of their promising big men. If I had to pick a Jazz big man to let go, it'd be Al Jefferson, as Millsap's skill set would slot in nicely next to the rapidly evolving Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors.

[h=3]Tier 9: Not Cheap, But Worth It[/h]
77. Paul George, SG/SF, IND ($48)
78. Deron Williams, PG, BKN ($60)
79. Nicolas Batum, SG/SF, POR ($46)
80. Carmelo Anthony, SF/PF, NY ($47)
81. David Lee, PF/C, GS ($38)
82. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C ($45)
83. Dwight Howard, C, LAL ($52)
84. Jrue Holiday, PG, PHI ($34)
85. Al Horford, PF/C, ATL ($48)
86. Mike Conley Jr., PG, MEM ($41)
87. Chris Bosh, PF/C, MIA ($36)
88. Monta Ellis, PG/SG, MIL ($46)
89. Brook Lopez, C, BKN ($38)
90. Blake Griffin, PF, LAC ($35)
91. Al Jefferson, PF/C, UTA ($42)
92. Ty Lawson, PG, DEN ($32)
93. Josh Smith, SF/PF, ATL ($42)

These are high-priced players who you won't regret acquiring. But auction keeper dynasties are built around undervalued upside, not established value. And most of these players are at a stage of their careers are giving back equal value on your investments. You'll acquire them, enjoy them, and then probably throw them back into the player pool.

[h=3]Tier 10: Like Wine, Fine Expensive Wine[/h]
94. Dwyane Wade, SG ($40)
95. Paul Pierce, SG/SF, BOS ($38)
96. Tim Duncan, PF/C, SA ($41)
97. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, DAL ($30)
98. Kevin Garnett, PF/C, BOS ($23)
99. Tony Parker, PG, SA ($30)

All of these players posted good-to-great fantasy seasons relative to their age. Tim Duncan in particular (along with Kobe) had one of the great age-adjusted fantasy seasons in recent memory. All of these guys will give back solid production next season, but come with injury concerns, minutes limits and sudden unreported games off (any Spur can get Popoviched at any given moment).

[h=3]Tier 11: The Future, Part 2[/h]
100. Maurice Harkless, SF, ORL ($6)
101. Harrison Barnes, SF, GS ($4)
102. Enes Kanter, C, UTA ($6)
103. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, CHA ($6)
104. Lance Stephenson, SG, IND ($5)
105. Thomas Robinson, PF, HOU ($1)
106. Victor Oladipo, SG/SF, DET ($4)
107. Trey Burke, PG, NOR ($4)

If Kidd-Gilchrist develops any sort of consistent shot this summer, he could be one of the best fantasy bargains of 2013-14. He's got that quality so many other fantasy should-have-beens lack: motor. Assuming Charlotte ends up with Noel, Smart, or McLemore, MKG will have guaranteed starters' minutes on a team with zero expectations. That's a good recipe for a breakout campaign.

I'm keeping an eye on preseason reports on Thomas Robinson. He was brought in to start and anchor the power forward spot for the most fantasy-friendly team in the NBA. There's a big opportunity there for whoever comes in and grabs that spot.

Don't forget that the Rockets have some cap space to play with as well, assuming they come up short on Dwight Howard (Josh Smith or Al Jefferson, anyone?)

[h=3]The DeMarcus Cousins Tier[/h]
???. DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C, SAC ($34)

I have nothing else to add on the subject.

[h=3]Tier 12: Glue Guys[/h]
108. Andrei Kirilenko, SF/PF, MIN ($8)
109. Danny Granger, SF, IND ($10)
110. Andrew Bogut, C, GS ($6)
111. Steve Nash, PG, LAL ($10)
112. Tyson Chandler, C, NY ($8)
113. Manu Ginobili, SG, SA ($5)
114. Tyreke Evans, PG/SG/SF, SAC ($11)
115. Kevin Martin, SG, OKC ($8)
116. Louis Williams, PG/SG, ATL ($7)
117. Jarrett Jack, PG, GS ($4)
118. David West, PF, IND ($10)
119. Thaddeus Young, SF/PF, PHI ($8)
120. Tony Allen, SG, MEM ($4)
121. Robin Lopez, C, NOR ($6)
122. Jamal Crawford, PG/SG, LAC ($9)
123. Gerald Henderson, SG, CHA ($7)
124. Corey Brewer, SG/SF, DEN ($5)
125. Nene, PF/C, WAS ($8)
126. Omer Asik, C, CHI ($7)
127. Carlos Delfino, SG/SF, HOU ($6)
128. Emeka Okafor, PF/C, WAS ($5)
129. Vince Carter, SG/SF, DAL ($6)
130. Carl Landry, PF, GS ($2)
131. Luol Deng, SF, CHI ($7)
132. Arron Afflalo, SG/SF, ORL ($8)
133. Thabo Sefolosha, SG/SF, OKC ($7)
134. Andre Iguodala, SG/SF, DEN ($8)
135. Carlos Boozer, PF, CHI ($8)
136. Raymond Felton, PG, NY ($10)
137. Zach Randolph, PF, MEM ($9)
138. Jared Dudley, SG/SF, PHO ($3)

Iguodala is a free agent. If he goes for the money, he could end up with a bigger role on a lesser team, which might help his value. Ditto for Kirilenko, who showed what a solid veteran can do with big minutes on a middle-of-the-road franchise.

[h=3]Tier 13: The Future, Part 3[/h]
139. Tiago Splitter, PF/C, SA ($2)
140. Derrick Williams, PF, MIN ($3)
141. Evan Fournier, SG, DEN ($2)
142. Patrick Patterson, PF, SAC ($3)
143. Shabazz Muhammad, SF, SAC ($1)
144. Ed Davis, PF/C, MEM ($3)
145. DeAndre Jordan, C, LAC ($4)
146. Earl Clark, SF/PF, LAL ($3)

I'm rooting for Ed Davis to claw his way to 25 to 28 minutes per game next year. He was cruising in Toronto before the Rudy Gay trade.

[h=3]Tier 14: The All-You-Can-Eat Fantasy Buffet[/h]
147. Darren Collison, PG, DAL ($2)
148. Joe Johnson, SG/SF, BKN ($5)
149. Nate Robinson, PG, CHI ($1)
150. Amar'e Stoudemire, PF/C, NYK ($6)
151. Kyle Korver, SG/SF. ATL ($7)
152. Andre Miller, PG, DEN ($2)
153. Luis Scola, PF, PHO ($2)
154. Matt Barnes, SF, LAC, ($2)
155. Shawn Marion, PF, DAL ($2)
156. Mario Chalmers, PG, MIA ($1)
157. Jason Thompson, PF/C, SAC ($1)
158. Andray Blatche, SF/PF, BKN ($4)
159. Byron Mullens, PF/C, CHA ($3)
160. Luke Ridnour, PG/SG, MIN ($2)
161. Ray Allen, SG, MIA ($1)
162. Metta World Peace, SF, LAL ($2)
163. Channing Frye, PF/C, PHO ($2)

[h=3]Tier 15: The Future, Part 4[/h]
164. Andrew Nicholson, PF, ORL ($1)
165. Wesley Johnson, SG/SF, PHO ($1)
166. Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, NOR ($2)
167. Kosta Koufos, C, DEN ($2)
168. JaVale McGee, C, DEN ($2)
169. Tyler Zeller, PF/C, CLE ($2)
170. Alex Len, C, OKC ($1)
171. Anthony Bennett, PF, WAS ($1)
172. Mitch McGarry, PF, POR ($1)
173. Evan Turner, SG/SF, PHI ($2)

[h=3]Tier 16: Endgame Grabs[/h]
174. Jameer Nelson, PG, ORL ($1)
175. Beno Udrih, PG/SG, ORL ($1)
176. Devin Harris, PG/SG, ATL ($1)
177. Dorell Wright, SF, PHI ($1)
178. Jason Kidd, PG/SG, NYK ($1)
179. Kris Humphries, PF, BKN ($1)
180. Brandan Wright, PF/C, DAL ($1)
181. Chris Kaman, PF/C, DAL ($1)
182. Alexey Shved, PG/SG, MIN ($1)
183. Jason Richardson, SG/SF, PHI ($1)
184. Gerald Wallace, SF/PF, BKN ($1)
185. Michael Beasley, SF/PF, PHO ($1)
186. Randy Foye, PG/SG, UTA ($1)
187. Jimmy Butler, SG/SF, CHI ($1)
188. Jerryd Bayless, PG/SG, MEM ($1)
189. Tayshaun Prince, SF, MEM ($1)
190. Mike Dunleavy, SG/SF, MIL ($1)
191. Bismack Biyombo, PF/C, CHA ($1)
192. Marvin Williams, SF, UTA ($1)
193. Trevor Ariza, SF, WAS, ($1)
194. Rodney Stuckey, PG/SG, DET ($1)
195. Alonzo Gee, SF, CLE ($1)
196. Elton Brand, PF/C, DAL ($1)
197. Donatas Motiejunas, PF, HOU ($1)
198. John Salmons, SG/SF, SAC ($1)
199. Courtney Lee, SG, BOS ($1)
200. J.J. Barea, PG, MIN ($1)

 

[HacheMan]

Revisiting 2012-13 predictions

[h=1]Revisiting 2012-13 predictions[/h]Updated: April 16, 2013, 7:18 PM ET
<CITE class=source>By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

This is it, people. The column that is supposed to last for a while. I thought I'd review some high points and low points from my past season of prognostication.

Then, by way of a big finish, revisit and revise the auction keeper list I put together last September with an eye toward 2013-14. (Click here to see the full list.)

[h=3]Top 5 Things I Was Wrong About This Season[/h]
1. DeMarcus Cousins: "There's a chance Cousins could end the season as the No. 1 center in fantasy basketball" -- Me, in September.


Cousins is currently the No. 16 center and 51st on the Player Rater.

Usually, I'm not taken in by preseason palaver, especially when it applies to (I don't use this term lightly) headcases like Cousins. But I was blinded by the upside and by the breathless, stentorian reports that "Cousins! Has! Matured!" I also like a good redemption story. It sure seemed at the time that Mr. Technicality was ready to take the proverbial third-year big man leap.

This season it became clear that Cousins is way overvalued because of his scoring. Cousins can score and rebound in bunches and he possesses a nice steals rate for a big man (1.5 per game), but he's pedestrian to disappointing in multiple categories: blocks, field goal percentage, turnovers and free-throw percentage. DMC was all peaks and extended valleys.

For a big man averaging 13.7 field goal attempts per game, Cousins' 46.7 percent effective field goal percentage was downright abominable (30th among centers averaging at least 20 minutes per game). And I haven't even gotten into Cousins' intangibles deficiencies: the technicals, elbows airmailed at Mike Dunleavy, benchings and suspensions.

Throw in the fact that he plays for noted serial fantasy-value killer Keith Smart, and Cousins' prognosis for 2013-14 looks like it will be another overpriced disappointment.

But wait, Cousins will be in a contract year. If anything could cause the synapses to align in Cousins' mind, it would be the promise of a max contract. Cousins could command that with a classic contact campaign.

But if he doesn't respond? Well, you can find 16.9 points, 9.8 rebounds and a paltry 0.7 blocks in a lot of places. The big nights are nice, but when you look at his final averages, Cousins was barely better than average.

Sorry about that, folks.

2. Rudy Gay: I pushed Gay as a foundational addition for teams looking to build a solid base across multiple categories. A look at Gay's final numbers (18.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.0 3-pointers, 1.5 steals, 0.7 blocks) might tell you he had a perfectly acceptable season. Gay certainly posted a strong finish (19.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.7 3-pointers in April), but after three straight seasons of statistical growth, Gay regressed in 2012-13.

His restoration as an unquestioned No. 1 offensive option (sorry, DeMar DeRozan) should help Gay bounce back next season, but he's going to need to improve his efficiency (a career-low 49.0 percent true shooting percentage in 2012-13) to justify a price tag north of $25.

3. Joe Johnson: Year in and year out, Johnson has been one of my favorite mid-round grabs, a player who (like Gay) builds strength in multiple categories. Like clockwork, I've pushed him as a value acquisition in the $12-20 range.

At the same time, ever since Johnson signed his max deal, NBA analysts have been portending his production would fall off a cliff and turn that max into an albatross.


Johnson held them off for a while, but this season, the cliff materialized. The days of Johnson being a 20-point, five-rebound, five-assist guy have become 16, three and three.

That's still useful in medium-to-deep leagues, but he should be a $5-8 player from here on out.

4. Deron Williams: Williams had been mired in a slow, steady decline since his days in Utah. I wrote this preseason that his days as a first-round fantasy pick were over. But since All-Star Weekend, Williams has played his best sustained stretch of basketball in two years, reminding all of us that he's still a few years removed from his downside (he's only 28).

Williams' averages for April (26.5 points, 9.0 assists, 2.5 3-pointers) cement his late-first round status for next year. I'd still rank him behind Paul, Irving and Westbrook, but Williams is still very much a top-five fantasy point guard.

5. Andrea Bargnani: Translate most of what I just wrote about DeMarcus Cousins into Italian, and you'll have a pretty good representation of Bargnani. Granted, he was injured, but Bargnani suffers from the same main issue that plagues most frustrating fantasy players: high upside, low motor.

Bargnani came cheap in most leagues, so he was a low-risk, medium-reward gamble. I've always been in love with his potential due to the out-of-position stats, and pushed him as a potential fantasy comeback story.

I still believe a lot of his issues reside above the shoulders, and that a change of scenery could improve Bargnani's prospects, but it's getting a little late for him to rehabilitate his reputation. He'll probably be a $4-7 endgame grab in next season's drafts.

[h=3]Top 5 Things I Was Right About[/h]1. Kemba Walker: "So what he couldn't shoot in his first season? He's 22, plays on a bad team that's offensively challenged, and qualifies at both guard slots. And he's two dollars. I see a little bit of early Baron Davis in him. Which is probably more of a threat than a sales pitch." -- Me, in September.

Walker pretty much lived up to that billing. Actually, he exceeded it, placing 22nd on the Player Rater. Thanks to his toiling on a bad (underpublicized) team, Walker should still be undervalued, and hopefully he keeps his uber-valuable PG/SG eligibility. One red flag: If Charlotte ends up with a backcourt player in the draft, it could ding his value.

2. (Stay Away From) The Los Angeles Lakers (Except For Kobe Bryant): "There's only one basketball allowed in play at a time, and only so many possessions per game." I said that back when Mike Brown was still the coach. It remained true even with Mike D'Antoni's (and his high-pace system's) arrival.

It just seemed logical that the Lakers couldn't produce enough touches to satisfy all of their elite players. That an overabundance of high Usage Rate players and hype was going to lead to fantasy disappointment, even if it produced a real-life title run.

At the same time, while Dwight Howard, Steve Nash and Pau Gasol were going a little high in auctions, it seemed like the market was a little too down on Kobe. Down enough that I listed Kobe as a sleeper headed into drafts.

Then Kobe turned in an epic poem of a season, made his fantasy owners very happy, and then suffered an injury that places the Lakers' fortunes for the next half-decade into limbo.

I expect him to be back, I'd bet by Christmas. But comebacks from Achilles injuries are, historically, a dicey business. We all may have to be prepared for a diminished Kobe.

What will the Lakers do in the meantime? Re-sign Dwight Howard (obviously) then reshuffle his supporting cast, maybe even the coaching staff. No matter what, there will be a fresh set of fantasy variables (and soap opera storylines) to play around with by this fall's fantasy drafts.

3. Andre Drummond: "I've been drooling over Drummond's fantasy potential since the preseason. He's continuing to build up his minutes in Lawrence Frank's rotation, and is primed for a nice second half. The fantasy combination of a Drummond/Greg Monroe frontcourt could be numerically devastating. Just, please -- for the love of Dr. Naismith -- don't let this guy near a free throw line (39 percent from the stripe so far this season)." - Me, in December

I harbor two worries for Drummond next season: (1) He'll end up going for $30 in drafts, and (2) he'll shoot 30 percent from the free throw line. Look, I share your excitement regarding Drummond's impact as a full-time starter. But don't go nuts. I'd bail out once bidding gets out of the low twenties.

4. Jrue Holiday/Mike Conley/Goran Dragic/Brandon Jennings: I focused a lot of preseason pixels on the rising upper-middle class at point guard. Why would you have blown $65 on Deron Williams when you could have had a three-pack of Conley, Dragic, and Jennings for about the same price?


In fantasy, point guards are fast becoming a volume business.

5. James Harden/Jeremy Lin: As a starter, Harden becomes a legit top-15 player in fantasy. In auction keeper leagues? Bid with absolute confidence. I'd price him in the $46-52 range. Remember, in a keeper situation, you'd rather have Harden going forward than Kobe or Wade. Harden's percentages aren't discussed enough in terms of his fantasy value. He's going to anchor your team in both categories while still generating 3-pointers.

"If you're a Jeremy Lin owner? In a way, I believe this trade is going to help Lin. It takes off some of the pressure to that contract as he continues to find his legs after offseason knee surgery. Now he gets a running mate who will have no problem being the guy. Lin's preseason struggles depressed his APR (63.3) a little too much; I liked him in the late sixth round even before the trade. There's a ton of young upside featured at PG in fantasy this season. Lin could end up generating fourth-round value, even with Harden siphoning off some of his shots." -- Me, in October

It turns out I was sandbagging a bit on Harden. He was a top-four player.

Enjoy the playoffs! And don't let a big series by a less-heralded player inflate his draft stock for next season.

The road to fantasy infamy is littered with JaVales.
</CITE>

 

[HacheMan]

Stephen Curry set to break 3-point mark

By Tom Carpenter, Special to ESPN.com

The fact that Stephen Curry is just two long-range jumpers away from owning the NBA's single-season 3-point record isn't really surprising. After all, he has knocked down 44.7 percent of his 3-pointers during his four-year career, including 45.5 percent the past two seasons. The difference this season, during which he has seen his 3-point production jump from about 2.1 3s per game each of his first three seasons to a whopping 3.5 3s per game this season is that coach Mark Jackson is letting Curry chuck an average of 7.6 3s per game (up from about 4.7 per game in his first three campaigns). Well, that and the most important element of all: he has stayed healthy for the first time in years.

Curry, whose bum ankles kept many fantasy owners from buying into his upside in drafts in the fall, forced him to miss just four games this season. There was reason to be very concerned about his ankles being a genuine, long-term issue for him, since he missed 40 of 66 games last season. The question now is whether his health issues are in the rearview mirror. He wouldn't be the first young player whose body had trouble adjusting to the rigors of an 82-game NBA campaign before his body got acclimated for the long term. Plus, last season's 66-game slate was so condensed that it was even tougher on Curry than a regular NBA season. Curry just turned 25, so although I will remain concerned about his health, I'll be willing to throw caution to the wind and roll the dice on his health next season.

Curry, who followed up Friday's 47-point, 9 3-pointer game with 35 points and 7 3s on Monday, will aim to beat Ray Allen's 3-point record Wednesday against the Portland Trail Blazers.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]MONDAY, APRIL 15[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Goran Dragic, Suns: 21 points (7-17 FG, 5-6 FT), 2 3-pointers, 5 rebounds, 14 assists, 3 steals against the Rockets
Greg Monroe, Pistons: 27 points (10-14 FG, 7-7 FT), 16 rebounds, 4 assists against the 76ers
Markieff Morris, Suns: 20 points (8-15 FG), 2 3-pointers, 7 rebounds, 5 steals, 6 blocks versus the Rockets
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]James Harden, Rockets: 16 points (5-18 FG, 0-7 3s, 6-11 FT), 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers against the Suns
Brandon Jennings, Bucks: 4 points (1-11 FG, 0-5 3s), 3 rebounds, 4 assists versus the Nuggets
Andre Miller, Nuggets: 12 points (2-12 FG), 6 rebounds, 2 assists against the Bucks



<!-- end inline 1 -->[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
Let's take a brief look at a number of unheralded players who had big games Monday night, because they may be able to chip in for their regular-season finales and/or carry intrigue for the 2013-14 campaign, if they can garner bigger roles next season.

• Since the Miami Heat rested their big dogs Monday against the Cleveland Cavaliers, Norris Cole started and nearly triple-doubled: 16 points (6-12 FG), 2 3s, 11 boards and 9 dimes. He turned the rock over four times, but if the Heat rest or limit their studs again Wednesday against the Orlando Magic, Cole could be in position to make some noise again.

• Markieff Morris has been a shaky fantasy option this season, primarily because he couldn't get his FG% above the 40 percent mark. However, with an increased role since the All-Star break, we've seen some hope. He's shot 47.8 FG% and averaged 12.9 points and 7.4 rebounds to go with a well-rounded 1.9 3s, 1.6 steals and 1.7 blocks in seven April games. He had his second straight 20-point game (8-15 FG) Monday, adding 2 3s, 7 boards, 5 swipes and 6 blocks. That sort of Shawn Marion-esque stat-stuffing makes him worthy of use Wednesday against the Denver Nuggets, and will make him an intriguing flier in next season's drafts, if he remains a starter.

• It's anyone's guess how the Milwaukee Bucks roster will look next season, but John Henson is doing everything he can to make a case for a bigger role then. On Monday, he torched the Nuggets for 14 points (6-13 FG), 15 rebounds, 3 steals and 4 blocks. That gives him a total of 14 blocks and 59 boards in his past four games after he was taken out of the Bucks' proverbial moth balls. So long as Larry Sanders doesn't return to a full role Wednesday, Henson appears to be a solid play against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who likely will be resting their better players.

• I've long been intrigued by Kevin Seraphin, but he hasn't been able to carve out a big enough role to crank out reliable stats. With Nene out for the rest of the season, though, Seraphin had 17 points (8-12 FG), 7 boards and a block against the Brooklyn Nets Monday. He has blocked at least one shot in each of his past six games and has a total of eight in his past four. He figures to be a decent plug-in option Wednesday against the Chicago Bulls.

• Prior to Sunday's game, Cole Aldrich failed to even post a single-double, much less a double-double, this season. However, he had 12 points and 13 rebounds Monday after going for 12 points, 12 boards and 4 blocks the day prior. He also hit all but one of his 13 shots in those two games. He's hardly a safe play, but deep-leaguers in need of rebounds may toss Aldrich into the mix Wednesday against the Los Angeles Clippers.

• Dorell Wright could end up being a reliable fantasy contributor once again next season if he lands in the right situation as a free agent. He had a solid game Monday against the Detroit Pistons with 22 points (5-12 FG), 4 3s, 8 rebounds, 6 dimes, 1 steal and 1 block. Since he has taken at least nine shots in each of his past six games, Wright figures to be a quality contributor Wednesday against an Indiana Pacers team that likely will rest its starters.

• Chris Copeland stayed hot Monday, following up Sunday's 20-point performance with 32 points (12-25 FG), 4 3s and 7 boards. The New York Knicks basically just used six players against the Charlotte Bobcats, which meant that Pablo Prigioni, Iman Shumpert, James White and Steve Novak joined Copeland as fantasy-relevant options. That likely will remain the same in their regular-season finale Wednesday versus the Atlanta Hawks.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• The NBA canceled the game that was scheduled for tonight between the Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics; it will not be rescheduled. "The NBA expresses its sympathy to all those affected by the tragedy in Boston earlier today," read a statement issued Monday by the league.

• You'll want to check for updates tomorrow, but it sounds like Oklahoma City Thunder coach Scott Brooks intends to limit or hold out most or all of his starters Wednesday against the Milwaukee Bucks. That could leave the door open for guys like Ronnie Brewer, Nick Collison, Reggie Jackson and Daniel Orton to makes some noise. We may even get a glimpse of rookies Jeremy Lamb and Perry Jones.

• According to Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News, Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich appears to be leaning toward using his starters in Wednesday's finale, but it's not clear how much game action they may see. You should check for updates as game time nears.

[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
Every player likes to go out on a high note, so I love Kyrie Irving in Wednesday's season finale for the Cleveland Cavaliers. He has been relatively quiet of late, but a matchup with the hapless Charlotte Bobcats should cure that ill. He's a high-upside play Wednesday, when so many of the usual top options will be taking the night off or seeing a limited role in preparation for the playoffs.

 

[HacheMan]

'13-14 keeper ranks, auction values

By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

To get you prepared for next season now, let's dive into my highly speculative keeper list!

[h=3]Tier 1: Still Worth It, No Matter What[/h]
1. Kevin Durant, SF, OKC ($82, No. 1 in 2012-13 rankings)
2. LeBron James, SF/PF, MIA ($74, No. 2)

They won't be valued this high come next fall's list, but this is what they're worth. And yes, I think Durant is $8 better than LeBron. I'm aware LeBron posted one of the best months in the history of basketball this season, enlivening field goal percentages throughout Fantasyland.

But what people don't realize is that Durant had that type of impact on free throw percentage over an entire season. That's really the difference between the two.

Each player has their strengths and super-strengths, but Durant's free throw shooting was sublime this year. When you couple Durant's .907 percentage with a large volume of attempts (9.4 per game), what you have is perhaps the greatest single-season free throw performance of all time.

Several skinny little guards have shot 90 percent from the line over the past decade, but they don't get fouled with the frequency of a Kevin Durant. Volume plus efficiency is what great fantasy numbers are all about, and Durant put on a clinic this season.

[h=3]Tier 2: The Future[/h]
3. Andre Drummond, PF/C, DET ($21)
4. Jonas Valanciunas, C, TOR ($8)
5. Bradley Beal, SG, WAS ($9)
6. Tobias Harris, SF/PF, ORL ($12)
7. Derrick Favors, PF, UTA ($7)
8. Dion Waiters, SG, CLE ($5)
9. Brandon Knight, PG/SG, DET ($4)
10. Nerlens Noel, C, CHA ($4)
11. Ben McLemore, SG, ORL ($4)
12. Eric Bledsoe, PG, LAC ($4)
13. Otto Porter, SF, CLE ($5)
14. Trey Burke, PG, NO ($2)

I honestly don't know how much Drummond will go for this fall. It depends on the level of hype he accrues between now and the end of training camp. But you might get a similar amount of upside for less by bidding on Valanciunas, who's had a similar -- yet under the radar -- late breakout. Drummond's historically terrifying free throw percentage gives me a lot of concern.

I had listed the rookies here by team based on Chad Ford's last mock draft (although I've adjusted some teams based on Marcus Smart staying in school). If Noel is healthy, he'll be the first rookie off the board, but keep an eye on whichever point guard ends up in Orlando. That could be a Damian Lillard-type situation.

Noel is listed here for cheap because of the knee situation. If Noel's ACL rehab looks like it's going to stretch well into 2014, he might be a dirt-cheap draft-and-stash candidate.

If Bledsoe lands a starting gig before the start of next season, add $15 to his price.

[h=3]Tier 3: Safe Foundational Futures Bets[/h]
15. Chris Paul, PG, LAC ($60)
16. Stephen Curry, PG/SG, GS ($59)
17. Serge Ibaka, PF/C, OKC ($50)
18. James Harden, SG, HOU ($60)
19. Marc Gasol, C, MEM ($47)
20. Russell Westbrook, PG, OKC ($58)
21. Kyrie Irving, PG, CLE ($50)

It's getting harder and harder to justify blowing $50 or more dollars on a point guard. The balance of statistical power has shifted so heavily to a sea of quality floor generals that a $60 Chris Paul or Russell Westbrook is becoming a needless extravagance.

If you want to blow $50 or $60, it's probably better spent on a scarcer position like center or shooting guard.

[h=3]Tier 4: Too Late To Get In On The Ground Floor[/h]
22. John Wall, PG, WAS ($42)
23. Anthony Davis, PF, NOR ($38)
24. Damian Lillard, PG, POR ($42)
25. Ricky Rubio, PG, MIN ($28)
26. Larry Sanders, PF/C, MIL ($24)

These are all players with top-20 upside who have yet to hit their ceilings. You're just going to have to know when to bail out of the bidding, as every player on this list will come with a heaping amount of preseason praise and expectations.

If Wall continues rolling into next season, it will be interesting to see if he beats out Mike Conley for No. 5 point guard overall.

From a keeper perspective, Davis' durability is a bit of a concern. I'm not going to rush to judgment and proclaim him Marcus Camby 2.0, but the man missed 18 games this season, and finished it with a sprained MCL.

[h=3]Tier 5: Under $20 Breakout Candidates[/h]
27. Gordon Hayward, SG/SF, UTA ($12)
28. Chandler Parsons, SF, HOU ($18)
29. Nikola Vucevic, PF/C, ORL ($15)
30. Ersan Ilyasova, SF/PF, MIL ($20)
31. Spencer Hawes, PF/C, PHI ($10)
32. George Hill, PG/SG, IND ($14)
33. Kawhi Leonard, SF, SA ($12)
34. Nikola Pekovic, C, MIN ($12)
35. Danny Green, SG/SF, SA ($8)
36. Amir Johnson, PF/C, TOR ($11)
37. Greivis Vasquez, PG, NOR ($16)
38. Kenneth Faried, PF, DEN ($7)
39. Glen Davis, PF/C, ORL ($4)
40. Isaiah Thomas, PG, SAC ($7)
41. Marcus Thornton, SG, SAC ($4)
42. Tristan Thompson, PF/C, CLE ($5)
43. J.J. Redick, SG, MIL ($7)
44. DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF, TOR ($6)

A lot of these players were hamstrung by timeshare situations, which might or might not shake out by the fall. Hopefully, post-Skiles, Ilyasova's playing time is here to stay. A season's worth of Chandler Parsons-type run could turn him into a top-25 fantasy player.

I like Orlando to remain as an off-the-map fantasy hotbed next season. Think about all the players they put on the fantasy radar: Tobias Harris, Nikola Vucevic, Glen Davis, Beno Udrih, Andrew Nicholson, E'Twaun Moore. Not all of them stayed on the radar, but the Magic are a case study as to why you need to pay attention to struggling franchises.

Because of Keith Smart, I'm conflicted about listing any Kings as breakout candidates. The talent and upside is there, but it's such a goopy, pouty, rotational mess that it's hard to think of a single King as a reliable season-long bet.

[h=3]Tier 6: Veterans You Can Steal For Under $25[/h]45. Jeff Green, SF/PF, BOS ($24)
46. J.R. Smith, SG/SF, NY ($22)
47. O.J. Mayo, SG, DAL ($18)
48. Jeff Teague, PG, ATL ($24)
49. Roy Hibbert, C, IND ($22)
50. Kemba Walker, PG/SG, CHA ($23)
51. Jose Calderon, PG, DET ($17)
52. Wesley Matthews, SG/SF, POR ($12)
53. Martell Webster, WAS, ($10)
54. Jeremy Lin, PG, HOU ($24)
55. Brandon Bass, PF/C, BOS ($8)
56. Mo Williams, PG/SG, UTA ($7)
57. J.J. Hickson, PF/C, POR ($10)

I pay a lot of attention to how players close out the final month of the season. J.R. Smith, Kemba Walker and Jeff Green are 16th, 18th and 19th overall since March 16.

Pre- and post-All-Star Weekend, Roy Hibbert logged one of biggest splits in the NBA. He's shaken off his injuries and is looking like a top-10 center heading into next season. As of this writing, Mo Williams is absolutely unconscious, and should be a great value buy.

Here's your grain of salt: Some of these players got more playing time than usual due to other injuries on their respective teams (Green, Smith, Bass) or just a lack of overall depth (Matthews, Hickson).

[h=3]Tier 7: Dented Stars[/h]
58. Kevin Love, PF/C, MIN ($48)
59. Derrick Rose, PG, CHI ($45)
60. Rajon Rondo, PG, BOS ($38)
61. Danilo Gallinari, SF/PF, DEN ($12)
62. Marcin Gortat, C, PHO ($12)
63. Joakim Noah, PF/C, CHI ($12)
64. Anderson Varejao, PF/C, CLE ($14)
65. Eric Gordon, SG, NOR ($18)
66. Pau Gasol, PF/C, LAL ($10)
67. Andrew Bynum, C, PHI ($18)
68. Kobe Bryant, SG, LAL ($20)

This season produced a lot of trips to the operating room. It ended with over a dozen good-to-elite fantasy players with injury concerns. That can be good news for fantasy owners, who could luck into some bargains.

We don't know when Bynum will play again, let alone for what team. Rose will be back, and I'll assume he'll be as good -- or better -- than he was last season. Ditto for Rondo and Love. Love's injury was a freakish one, and I really could have placed him in the top 20 as a safe foundational futures bet. If all appears well in the preseason, I'll bump him up.

Aside from Bynum, Kobe's value is the biggest shot in the dark. It would be unprecedented for Bryant to come back from an Achilles rupture (a full tear, mind you) at his previous level of play. I'm not even taking his age into account. It would be unprecedented if he were 24 instead of 34.

I'm rooting for a full recovery to happen. I can't think of a player I've had a larger opinion swing on over the past 10 years. But my gut tells me he'll be a solid-to-very good player the second half of next season, then respectably diminished for however many additional seasons he decides to play.

[h=3]Tier 8: Reliable Investments Under $30[/h]69. Greg Monroe, PF/C, DET ($23)
70. Brandon Jennings, PG, MIL ($30)
71. Klay Thompson, SG/SF, GS ($24)
72. Goran Dragic, PG, PHO ($27)
73. Ryan Anderson, PF, NOR ($15)
74. Paul Millsap, PF, UTA ($22)
75. Kyle Lowry, PG, TOR ($14)
76. Rudy Gay, SF, TOR ($28)

These are all players I expect to outperform their pricetags in 2013-14.

Lowry, in particular, should be primed for nice return on what promises to be a small keeper investment. He had sort of a lost campaign this season, but is cemented at point guard for the Raptors, who have a nice, underrated fantasy rotation going (Lowry, DeRozan, Gay, Bargnani/Amir Johnson, Valanciunas).

Millsap's value is tied to where he goes. Utah can't keep all of their promising big men. If I had to pick a Jazz big man to let go, it'd be Al Jefferson, as Millsap's skill set would slot in nicely next to the rapidly evolving Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors.

[h=3]Tier 9: Not Cheap, But Worth It[/h]
77. Paul George, SG/SF, IND ($48)
78. Deron Williams, PG, BKN ($60)
79. Nicolas Batum, SG/SF, POR ($46)
80. Carmelo Anthony, SF/PF, NY ($47)
81. David Lee, PF/C, GS ($38)
82. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C ($45)
83. Dwight Howard, C, LAL ($52)
84. Jrue Holiday, PG, PHI ($34)
85. Al Horford, PF/C, ATL ($48)
86. Mike Conley Jr., PG, MEM ($41)
87. Chris Bosh, PF/C, MIA ($36)
88. Monta Ellis, PG/SG, MIL ($46)
89. Brook Lopez, C, BKN ($38)
90. Blake Griffin, PF, LAC ($35)
91. Al Jefferson, PF/C, UTA ($42)
92. Ty Lawson, PG, DEN ($32)
93. Josh Smith, SF/PF, ATL ($42)

These are high-priced players who you won't regret acquiring. But auction keeper dynasties are built around undervalued upside, not established value. And most of these players are at a stage of their careers are giving back equal value on your investments. You'll acquire them, enjoy them, and then probably throw them back into the player pool.

[h=3]Tier 10: Like Wine, Fine Expensive Wine[/h]
94. Dwyane Wade, SG ($40)
95. Paul Pierce, SG/SF, BOS ($38)
96. Tim Duncan, PF/C, SA ($41)
97. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, DAL ($30)
98. Kevin Garnett, PF/C, BOS ($23)
99. Tony Parker, PG, SA ($30)

All of these players posted good-to-great fantasy seasons relative to their age. Tim Duncan in particular (along with Kobe) had one of the great age-adjusted fantasy seasons in recent memory. All of these guys will give back solid production next season, but come with injury concerns, minutes limits and sudden unreported games off (any Spur can get Popoviched at any given moment).

[h=3]Tier 11: The Future, Part 2[/h]
100. Maurice Harkless, SF, ORL ($6)
101. Harrison Barnes, SF, GS ($4)
102. Enes Kanter, C, UTA ($6)
103. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, CHA ($6)
104. Lance Stephenson, SG, IND ($5)
105. Thomas Robinson, PF, HOU ($1)
106. Victor Oladipo, SG/SF, PHO ($4)
107. Anthony Bennett, PF, DET ($4)
108. Gary Harris, SG, MIN ($2)

If Kidd-Gilchrist develops a ballpark-consistent shot this summer, he could be one of the best fantasy bargains of 2013-14. He's got that quality so many other fantasy should-have-beens lack; motor. Assuming Charlotte ends up with Noel or McLemore, MKG will have guaranteed starters' minutes on a team with zero expectations. That's a good recipe for a breakout campaign.

I'm keeping an eye on preseason reports on Thomas Robinson. He was brought in to start and anchor the power forward spot for the most fantasy-friendly team in the NBA. There's a big opportunity there for whoever comes in and grabs that spot.

Don't forget that the Rockets have some cap space to play with as well, assuming they come up short on Dwight Howard (Josh Smith or Al Jefferson, anyone?)

I'm moving Gary Harris up onto the board since projections have him going to Minnesota. Shooting guard minutes are there for the taking (and have been so for about two decades), and Harris could beat out the veteran competition with a solid camp.

[h=3]The DeMarcus Cousins Tier[/h]
???. DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C, SAC ($34)

I have nothing else to add on the subject.

[h=3]Tier 12: Glue Guys[/h]
109. Andrei Kirilenko, SF/PF, MIN ($8)
110. Danny Granger, SF, IND ($10)
111. Andrew Bogut, C, GS ($6)
112. Steve Nash, PG, LAL ($10)
113. Tyson Chandler, C, NY ($8)
114. Manu Ginobili, SG, SA ($5)
115. Tyreke Evans, PG/SG/SF, SAC ($11)
116. Kevin Martin, SG, OKC ($8)
117. Louis Williams, PG/SG, ATL ($7)
118. Jarrett Jack, PG, GS ($4)
119. David West, PF, IND ($10)
120. Thaddeus Young, SF/PF, PHI ($8)
121. Tony Allen, SG, MEM ($4)
122. Robin Lopez, C, NOR ($6)
123. Jamal Crawford, PG/SG, LAC ($9)
124. Gerald Henderson, SG, CHA ($7)
125. Corey Brewer, SG/SF, DEN ($5)
126. Nene, PF/C, WAS ($8)
127. Omer Asik, C, CHI ($7)
128. Carlos Delfino, SG/SF, HOU ($6)
129. Emeka Okafor, PF/C, WAS ($5)
130. Vince Carter, SG/SF, DAL ($6)
131. Carl Landry, PF, GS ($2)
132. Luol Deng, SF, CHI ($7)
133. Arron Afflalo, SG/SF, ORL ($8)
134. Thabo Sefolosha, SG/SF, OKC ($7)
135. Andre Iguodala, SG/SF, DEN ($8)
136. Carlos Boozer, PF, CHI ($8)
137. Raymond Felton, PG, NY ($10)
138. Zach Randolph, PF, MEM ($9)
139. Jared Dudley, SG/SF, PHO ($3)

Iguodala is a free agent. If he goes for the money, he could end up with a bigger role on a lesser team, which might help his value. Ditto for Kirilenko, who showed what a solid veteran can do with big minutes on a middle-of-the-road franchise.

[h=3]Tier 13: The Future, Part 3[/h]
140. Tiago Splitter, PF/C, SA ($2)
141. Derrick Williams, PF, MIN ($3)
142. Evan Fournier, SG, DEN ($2)
143. Patrick Patterson, PF, SAC ($3)
144. Shabazz Muhammad, SF, SAC ($1)
145. Ed Davis, PF/C, MEM ($3)
146. DeAndre Jordan, C, LAC ($4)
147. Earl Clark, SF/PF, LAL ($3)

I'm rooting for Ed Davis to claw his way to 25 to 28 minutes per game next year. He was cruising in Toronto before the Rudy Gay trade.

[h=3]Tier 14: The All-You-Can-Eat Fantasy Buffet[/h]
148. Darren Collison, PG, DAL ($2)
149. Joe Johnson, SG/SF, BKN ($5)
150. Nate Robinson, PG, CHI ($1)
151. Amar'e Stoudemire, PF/C, NYK ($6)
152. Kyle Korver, SG/SF. ATL ($7)
153. Andre Miller, PG, DEN ($2)
154. Luis Scola, PF, PHO ($2)
155. Matt Barnes, SF, LAC, ($2)
156. Shawn Marion, PF, DAL ($2)
157. Mario Chalmers, PG, MIA ($1)
158. Jason Thompson, PF/C, SAC ($1)
159. Andray Blatche, SF/PF, BKN ($4)
160. Byron Mullens, PF/C, CHA ($3)
161. Luke Ridnour, PG/SG, MIN ($2)
162. Ray Allen, SG, MIA ($1)
163. Metta World Peace, SF, LAL ($2)
164. Channing Frye, PF/C, PHO ($2)

[h=3]Tier 15: The Future, Part 4[/h]
165. Andrew Nicholson, PF, ORL ($1)
166. Wesley Johnson, SG/SF, PHO ($1)
167. Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, NOR ($2)
168. Kosta Koufos, C, DEN ($2)
169. JaVale McGee, C, DEN ($2)
170. Tyler Zeller, PF/C, CLE ($2)
171. Alex Len, C, WAS ($1)
172. Anthony Bennett, PF, WAS ($1)
173. Mitch McGarry, PF, POR ($1)
174. Evan Turner, SG/SF, PHI ($2)

[h=3]Tier 16: Endgame Grabs[/h]
175. Jameer Nelson, PG, ORL ($1)
176. Beno Udrih, PG/SG, ORL ($1)
177. Devin Harris, PG/SG, ATL ($1)
178. Dorell Wright, SF, PHI ($1)
179. Jason Kidd, PG/SG, NYK ($1)
180. Kris Humphries, PF, BKN ($1)
181. Brandan Wright, PF/C, DAL ($1)
182. Chris Kaman, PF/C, DAL ($1)
183. Alexey Shved, PG/SG, MIN ($1)
184. Jason Richardson, SG/SF, PHI ($1)
185. Gerald Wallace, SF/PF, BKN ($1)
186. Michael Beasley, SF/PF, PHO ($1)
187. Randy Foye, PG/SG, UTA ($1)
188. Jimmy Butler, SG/SF, CHI ($1)
189. Jerryd Bayless, PG/SG, MEM ($1)
190. Tayshaun Prince, SF, MEM ($1)
191. Mike Dunleavy, SG/SF, MIL ($1)
192. Bismack Biyombo, PF/C, CHA ($1)
193. Marvin Williams, SF, UTA ($1)
194. Trevor Ariza, SF, WAS, ($1)
195. Rodney Stuckey, PG/SG, DET ($1)
196. Alonzo Gee, SF, CLE ($1)
197. Elton Brand, PF/C, DAL ($1)
198. Donatas Motiejunas, PF, HOU ($1)
199. John Salmons, SG/SF, SAC ($1)
200. Courtney Lee, SG, BOS ($1)

 

[HacheMan]

Drummond should be valuable in '13-14

By Seth Landman, Special to ESPN.com

The regular season came to an end on Wednesday night, which gives us an opportunity to start looking ahead to next season. Here are some players who gave us something to think about on the final night of the season.


<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]WEDNESDAY, APRIL 17[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]LaMarcus Aldridge, Trail Blazers: 31 points (6-of-6 FT), 20 rebounds, 3 blocks against the Warriors
DeMarcus Cousins, Kings: 36 points (14-of-24 FG), 22 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks against the Clippers
Pau Gasol, Lakers: 17 points, 20 rebounds, 11 assists, 2 blocks versus the Rockets
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]J.J. Hickson, Trail Blazers: 2 points (1-of-3 FG), 4 rebounds against the Warriors
Paul Millsap, Jazz: 6 points (2-of-7 FG), 8 rebounds, 2 blocks versus the Grizzlies
Mo Williams, Jazz: 8 points (3-of-13 FG), 3 assists against the Grizzlies



<!-- end inline 1 -->• Andre Drummond put up 13 points, 3 rebounds, 3 steals and 3 blocks in a loss to the Brooklyn Nets, and had a pretty nice April after returning from his injury. In eight games, he averaged 10.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 1.0 blocks and shot 66 percent from the floor in 27 minutes of action. If he's going to play anywhere close to 30 minutes per game next season (and I think he is), he's going to be very valuable in fantasy, even if he's looking like a Dwight Howard-level train wreck from the free throw line.

• Chris Copeland had his second straight 30-point night, throwing 33 up on the Hawks in a win at the Garden. Copeland can score, with a true shooting percentage of .583 and a solid usage rate to go along with it, and the Knicks have been creative of late finding minutes and opportunities for him. For April he averaged 15 points and made just fewer than two 3-pointers per game, and those are certainly fantasy-worthy numbers. If he's in the rotation next season, there's a good chance he'll be worth owning in fantasy leagues.

• Josh McRoberts has long been a frustrating player, but he's capable of putting up numbers when he's given the opportunity. On a Bobcats team with very few players who could even be described as good, he found a niche and ended up being pretty valuable these past couple of weeks. He had 20 points on perfect shooting from the floor Wednesday night in a win over the Cavaliers, and in nine games in April, McRoberts averaged 11.9 points and 9.3 rebounds and shot 52.5 percent from the floor. Those numbers are nice, but it took him nearly 40 minutes per game to accumulate them, and he has been in the league a while, so the odds of his carving out a permanent role aren't great. He'll get some attention in the offseason, but you should feel free to ignore it.

• Arnett Moultrie finally got some playing time down the stretch and averaged a solid 9.4 points and 7.0 rebounds in 23.4 minutes over the final five games of the season. With Doug Collins having resigned as head coach and someone new stepping in, one would figure that Moultrie, a young player with a great deal of promise, would be in line for a bigger role next season. Keep him in mind as a possible sleeper candidate heading into drafts.

• Al Jefferson was the only guy on his team who could get a bucket, finishing with 22 points and 16 rebounds in a soul-crushing loss to the Grizzlies. Jefferson is an extremely interesting player to watch this offseason; he's a free agent, and at 28 years old, he's one of the few players in the league who can reliably score points in the post. He's not a fringe first-round pick in fantasy anymore, but nights like Wednesday, when he puts up huge numbers against a great defense, are why he always ends up going very high in fantasy drafts.

• John Henson had a career-high 28 points to go with 16 rebounds in a win over the Thunder. Henson has been a monster of late and probably will go way too high in drafts next season based on it. The Bucks have a lot of players vying for frontcourt minutes: Ersan Ilyasova, Larry Sanders and Ekpe Udoh, to name a few. Henson is really good, and averaging 15 points and 15 rebounds over the final five games of the season is impressive, but I have a feeling he'll go a little too high in drafts to justify the expenditure in the fall.