NBA Fantasy News 2012/2013

HacheMan · Jan 16, 2013

Anthony Davis' playing time decreasing
<cite class="byline">By Neil Tardy, Special to ESPN.com

The Unibrow is seeing limited minutes, and it's raising eyebrows in the fantasy world.

[h=4]TUESDAY, JAN. 15[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Kobe Bryant, Lakers: 31 points (12-19 FG), 6 assists and 3 3-pointers versus Bucks.
Jrue Holiday, 76ers: 29 points (10-17 FG), 11 assists, 5 rebounds, 4 3-pointers and 4 steals versus Hornets.

Dwight Howard, Lakers: 31 points (14-18 FG), 16 rebounds and 4 blocks versus Bucks.[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Andre Iguodala, Nuggets: 9 points (4-16 FG, 0-3 FT), 4 assists and 3 rebounds versus Trail Blazers.
Brandon Jennings, Bucks: 12 points (4-14 FG), 1 assist versus Lakers.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bobcats: 4 points (1-5 FG) and 5 rebounds versus Pacers.


While Anthony Davis contributed 10 points, seven rebounds, two steals and two blocks in the New Orleans Hornets' victory over the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday, he played only 21 minutes. That's becoming a trend with the No. 1 overall pick. Over his past seven games, Davis is averaging 23 minutes while producing just 9.6 points, 5.0 boards and 1.0 blocks.

So is there a problem? Not for the Hornets, who rave about the 19-year-old's physical talent and work ethic. The simplest answer, forwarded by the Hornets247 blog in this game summary, is that it might be a matter of conditioning. Despite being 6-foot-11, Davis is listed at just 220 pounds. It's certainly possible that coach Monty Williams -- who last week apparently told Davis that the rookie was "hitting the wall" -- doesn't believe he's ready to handle the night-to-night pounding the pros dish out in the paint.

The Hornets may view it as a necessity to take it easy on Davis, but they also have the luxuries of time and supporting talent. Even with the team playing well now, obviously wins and losses in 2012-13 aren't a consideration. Plus, between Ryan Anderson (14 points, 9 rebounds in 29 minutes versus the Sixers), Robin Lopez (8 points, 3 blocks in 23 minutes) and even Jason Smith (6 points, 7 rebounds in 23 minutes), there are other bigs who can play.

Certainly it's possible, and perhaps probable, that in a week or two, Davis is again seeing 30-plus minutes per night. However, if you consider the Hornets' motivations and available resources, I do believe Davis owners should be at least a little concerned.

[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• Chris Paul (bruised right kneecap) missed a second straight game, allowing fantasy owners to more clearly imagine a magical world where Eric Bledsoe is a starting NBA point guard. Living up to our peppermint dreams, Bledsoe was solid across the board against the Houston Rockets on Tuesday: 19 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, a couple of steals and sweet percentages (7 of 12 from the field, 4 of 4 from the line). While Paul apparently is progressing, Bledsoe could see at least one more start, so keep adding him in leagues that allow daily lineup changes. The Los Angeles Clippers visit the Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday.

• Despite averaging 18.3 points, 10.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks over his previous four starts, Amir Johnson came off the bench behind Aaron Gray on Tuesday. Johnson still managed 15 points and six rebounds in 26 minutes against the Brooklyn Nets. With Johnson being 6-foot-9, it'd be a lot to expect for him to hang with Brook Lopez for 40 minutes. Look for a similar approach on Wednesday, when the Toronto Raptors face Joakim Noah and the Chicago Bulls.

• Speaking of the Raptors, Kyle Lowry owners may not realize their good fortune. Lowry sprained his left ankle in the first half against the Nets and wasn't expected to return. But Lowry not only got back in, he ended up scoring 19 of his 21 points in the fourth quarter. And nine of those 19 came in the final minute of play (on two 3-pointers and three free throws after Lowry was fouled on while taking another trey).

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Eric Gordon will be a game-time decision when the Hornets visit the Boston Celtics. Gordon hasn't played in back-to-back games since returning from his knee injury, but considering his effectiveness in 32 minutes against the Sixers on Tuesday (19 points on 7 of 13 shooting), now could be the time.

• Be sure to glance at the Atlanta Hawks' box score tonight, because coach Larry Drew has promised lineup changes for his reeling club. While it's tough to imagine a switch the Hawks could make that would have fantasy impact, this team needs to do something. After a 20-10 start, the Hawks have dropped six of seven, capped by a brutal 97-58 beatdown in Chicago on Monday. On Wednesday, the Hawks visit the Nets, who have won seven straight.

</cite>

HacheMan · Jan 17, 2013

Drafted but dropped players

By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

During the season, savvy fantasy owners diligently monitor the waiver wire, waiting for unheralded players to emerge as fantasy options. As these players surface early in the season, widely drafted players are subsequently dropped because they're not living up to preseason expectations. In many cases, these better-known players work out the kinks and resurface as steady fantasy options later in the season. Several of these players have emerged of late. I'll highlight a few of them and also discuss a few other widely available options potentially worth a roster spot:

Elton Brand, PF, Dallas Mavericks (30.4 percent owned): Brand initially struggled to adjust in Dallas as the team sorted out its new players and undefined roles. He shot just 37.3 percent from the floor in November and was subsequently dropped by many fantasy owners. But he has elevated his play, scoring a season-high 20 points Monday and notching a 10-point, 11-rebound double-double Wednesday. He is averaging 9.7 points on 59.1 percent shooting, with 6.2 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game, in nine January contests.

As he has evolved as a player (and perhaps devolved athletically), he's hitting a career-high 48 percent on his long 2-point shots. His problem has been that he's hitting just 38.8 percent of his midrange shots (10-15 feet), which is well below his typical mid-40s marks. His accuracy on long 2-pointers and struggles from midrange should cancel each other out as they trend toward his career norms, and he should continue inching toward 50 percent from the field. Additionally, his rebounding rate is the highest it has been since 2009. If you're looking for a steadying presence who can provide a nice combination of field goal percentage, rebounds, blocks and steals, Brand has turned around his early-season woes and become a viable fantasy option once again.

Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, New Orleans Hornets (26.3 percent owned): One of the hottest early-season adds, Aminu sputtered after his torrid start. But he has improved, particularly on the defensive end, where he's averaging 9.4 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocks per game in January. With his recent surge, he's posting career-best numbers in true shooting percentage, rebounding rate and player efficiency rating, all underlying statistics that indicate improvement in his overall game. You can't count on him for scoring, but if you're looking for fantastic rebounding from a small forward, Aminu provides it. In fact, his rebounding this month is second-highest among small forward-eligible players (behind Paul George). There's long-term offensive potential here, but he still struggles in offensive sets and is better using his athleticism in the open court. At least his percentages are innocuous and turnovers are low, so he doesn't hurt you in any of the negative-impact categories. His defensive stats are unique, as only eight other NBA players are averaging at least 7.0 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 0.5 blocks per game. If your team needs a boost on D and you're set on scoring, Aminu is a fine target.

Tony Allen, SG, Memphis Grizzlies (23.1 percent owned): The maddening feature of Allen's stats this season centers around his decline in field goal percentage, which sits at 41.5 percent, well below his 47.6 percent career mark. He takes 48.7 percent of his shots at the rim, converting 58.3 percent of those attempts, but he took 54.5 percent of his shots at the rim, with similar accuracy, last season and took fewer long 2-pointers. That said, his accuracy is slowly improving: He's shooting 44.3 percent in January and also has posted a season-high 4.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.9 steals per game this month. Don't be too swayed by his poor shooting, as he attempts only 7.8 shots per game. Rather, focus on his fantastic rebounding for a guard, decent assists and dazzling steal numbers. When it comes down to it, you're really adding Allen if you need steals, as he's ninth overall this season, 11th overall in January and sixth in steals per 48 minutes. Steals are tricky to specifically target on the waiver wire, and if he's available, Allen is likely your best bet to make up ground in the category.

Harrison Barnes, SF, Golden State Warriors (20.0 percent owned): He's a work in progress, but Barnes is beginning to prove he'll be a contributing force in this league, averaging 12.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.6 3-pointers, 0.8 steals and 0.4 blocks per game in his past five games, while shooting 52.2 percent from the floor. He's proving capable of scoring inside as well as on jumpers, and his athleticism allows him to accrue steals and blocks at an already-solid rate that likely will continue to improve. He'll be inconsistent -- he was surprisingly effective in November, then slowed in December and now is looking great in January -- but when all is said and done, he should be around 12 points, 5 boards, a 3-pointer, a steal and half a block per game this season. His skill set is well-suited to the fantasy game given his ability to contribute in a variety of categories, and he's brimming with athletic potential at just 20 years old. He should be a fantasy mainstay from here on out, and if he's available in your league, he's worth adding, both for his current production and his high ceiling.

Kevin Seraphin, PF/C, Washington Wizards (9.4 percent owned): Another player who was widely added after a strong start, Seraphin has been inconsistent. But he has scored in double digits in eight of his past 10 games and has at least one block in nine of his past 10. He's averaging 13.4 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game in January, numbers you can rightfully expect if he continues playing nearly 30 minutes per game.

Randy Foye, PG/SG, Utah Jazz (7.3 percent owned): Nothing groundbreaking here. Foye is what he is, a streaky scorer who bounces from huge game to clunker on a regular basis. But it averages out to a decent scoring average and an excellent 3-point total. He's averaging 11.9 points and 2.4 3s per game this month, playing more with Mo Williams sidelined and even shooting 47.0 percent from the floor. Add Foye with clear expectations that you can bank on him to bolster your team's 3-point totals, but don't expect him to morph into the all-around option many envisioned he would be when he was drafted seventh overall in 2006.

Thomas Robinson, PF, Sacramento Kings (6.8 percent owned): Robinson is averaging 8.2 rebounds over his past five games and has played more minutes than starter Jason Thompson in two of the Kings' past three games. He was beastly at Kansas last season, averaging 17.7 points on 50.5 percent shooting with 11.9 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 0.9 blocks per game on a loaded squad. His rebounding, a facet that often translates well from college to the NBA, is there on a per-minute basis; his 13.5 rebounds per 48 ranks 32nd in the league and is a higher rate than Joakim Noah and Nikola Pekovic. He has a reputation as a diligent worker, which is a good sign for in-season improvement, and profiles statistically like a Carlos Boozer- or David Lee-style power forward as someone who can score efficiently and post good rebound totals, but low blocks.
Robinson's ability to rebound is his only dependable skill thus far, but if he keeps earning more minutes, he could average more than eight rebounds per game from here on out, a feat only 27 players are currently accomplishing. That makes him worthy of a spot on teams that need boards. Another good sign about his potential playing time: According to 82games.com, every five-man unit in which he and DeMarcus Cousins are paired has a neutral or positive plus/minus. As this team looks forward, its frontcourt of the future should continue seeing more playing time together, which should provide Robinson with increased opportunities.

Beno Udrih, PG/SG, Milwaukee Bucks (1.1 percent owned): After scoring in double figures just five times in November and December combined, Udrih already has done it five times in January and is averaging 10.4 points on 62.3 percent shooting, with 4.6 assists per game, this month. If you want efficient scoring for a guard and decent assist numbers, Udrih is worth a look, especially considering the trade rumors surrounding the rest of Milwaukee's backcourt. If either Brandon Jennings or Monta Ellis is shipped out, Udrih could be in line for a bump in minutes, which should elicit productive numbers given his rock-solid 16.49 player efficiency rating.

Landry Fields, SG/SF, Toronto Raptors (1.0 percent owned): I'm wary of his recent emergence, simply because he's benefiting from a rash of injuries on the Raptors' roster. Still, his strong play should earn him more playing time even when Andrea Bargnani, Linas Kleiza and Mickael Pietrus return. He's worth grabbing only if you want to get the out-of-position statistic of rebounds from the guard slot, as he's averaging 6.8 rebounds per game this month, second-best of any guard-eligible player. Overall, his 10.4 rebounds per 48 ranks best among any guard-eligible player, and his total rebounding rate is up this season, too. If you're locked in a tight rebounding race, getting seven per night from a spot where your competition gets 3-4 is a sneaky way to improve your standings.

HacheMan · Jan 20, 2013

Clippers have five games, are top bets for Week 13 of Fastbreak

By Tom Carpenter
ESPN.com

When it comes to the 2012-13 schedule, Week 13 may provide the simplest stretch we will see all season long. Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and their teammates have five games on their agenda, which makes them all intriguing options. Only two teams play just twice next week, the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets, which leaves only nine teams (CHA, CLE, IND, MIA, MIL, ORL, PHI, TOR, UTA) that play just thrice.
With the schedule playing a minimal role in strategy for Week 13, I'm going to add some buy-low and sell-high targets for points leagues to my weekly Fastbreak Salary-Cap recommendations today -- including how to handle a number of rookies for the remainder of the season.
Guards
• Chris Paul (11.9), Eric Bledsoe (7.3), Los Angeles Clippers: It will cost you a chunk of change to add CP3 to your roster (he's tied with Russell Westbook for the priciest guard contract), but with five games on his schedule in Week 13, he's a no-brainer play if you can afford him -- and if he is healthy. That brings me to his backup, Bledsoe.
If Paul's bruised knee turns out to be an ailment that is expected to linger all the way through next week, Bledsoe will be a very intriguing Fastbreak and weekly points-league play. In Fastbreak, his contract is ridiculously cheap at $7.3 million, and though he stumbled a bit Thursday (5 FB points), he is capable of posting quality numbers (like the 16 and 26 points he posted in the first two games in which CP3 was sidelined), which means he would be an equally no-brainer play with five starts in Week 13.
This week aside, Bledsoe has some long-term upside in head-to-head points leagues this season for a couple of reasons. First, even as a reserve for the Clippers, Bledsoe can contribute decent points-league stats to round out your fantasy roster. Second, all signs point to the Clippers trading him this offseason, because they likely won't be able to afford to re-sign him as a restricted free agent. And while they would like to keep him as a quality backup PG for the postseason, it is possible he could be traded into a starting PG role elsewhere prior to the deadline, which would make his value skyrocket. He's worth a cheap trade for that potential upside.
• Eric Gordon (8.2), New Orleans Hornets: Gordon has been inconsistent since making his season debut late last month. Of course, considering his lengthy absence due to his troublesome knee, it should not come as a surprise that he might score 20-plus Fastbreak points one night and follow that up with a negative-points performance the next night, nor should it surprise us that he may sit out one game of a back-to-back set to take it easy on the joint.
All of that having been said, Gordon has looked pretty good overall and had Fastbreak games of 20 and 18 before resting on Wednesday in the second game of a back-to-back stretch. In Week 13, he has four games, none of which are back-to-back. The competition isn't easy (SAC, SA, HOU, MEM), but his very affordable contract makes him worth the risk if you are bumping up against the salary cap.
As far as trades go, it seems he should be dealt in nearly all leagues. History suggests that there is no way he doesn't miss at least another week or two this season, so if you own him and your team is in good shape, you should aim to deal him away. On the other hand, if your squad is in desperate shape, perhaps you have no choice but to acquire Gordon to see if you can get lucky. Who knows? Maybe his body stops betraying him and he posts the terrific points-league numbers that we've seen from him in the past.
• Damian Lillard (8.8), Portland Trail Blazers: Lillard continues to outperform his contract value, which means I am obligated to mention his name every time he has four games on his schedule. Only a dozen players are outperforming his average of 19.3 FB points per game, yet 46 players will cost you more to sign. He remains the clear-cut best value every time he has four games, as he does this week (versus WAS, IND, LAC, LAC).
I've been asked a lot lately about the rookie wall. I think players who are pushed as hard as Lillard has been are far more prone to hit the wall than, say, a rookie like Detroit Pistons big man Andre Drummond, who has been babied. That means common sense says that dealing Lillard away before he can hit the wall is a good idea. However, I think Lillard is confident and tough enough to fight through the wall, so I still recommend hanging on to him unless a perfect offer comes along.
• John Wall (8.6), Bradley Beal (8.1), Washington Wizards: I've also received a lot of questions about what to do with Wall and Beal; Wall due to his health and Beal due to the risk of that pesky rookie wall -- hmm, that's a lot of "wall" talk! Well, in the short term, both are intriguing plays for Week 13 because their contracts are affordable, they have a four-game slate (POR, UTA, MIN, CHI) and both are capable of racking up some good points-league stats.
In the long term, I think both remain intriguing trade options. Granted, if your team is solid in the rankings and you just got Wall back from his knee injury, I would sell high on him as soon as he strings together a few nice games, but I still love his overall upside enough that I would give serious thought to rolling with him for the long term this season if you need some luck to win your league.
As for Beal, I think the addition of Wall to the Wizards' backcourt will counterbalance the risk of hitting the rookie wall. In other words, having Wall drawing attention from defenses and dishing the ball to Beal in good spots to score should make things easier on the rookie. That means I am definitely making buy-low offers on Beal at this time.
Forwards
• Matt Barnes (9.6), Los Angeles Clippers: Barnes is a slippery player on the court and in points leagues. He isn't a starter, barely averages double-digit scoring and does nothing exceptionally well. Then why does he have such a high contract value compared to other reserve Fastbreak ballers? Because he contributes a little bit every game and with no lulls in production, his value has climbed a little bit basically every week all season. With five Week 13 games, that makes Barnes a terrific Fastbreak value. For fantasy leagues in general, Barnes remains an under-the-radar guy, which means that his trade value, unlike his Fastbreak value, remains quite low. I expect Barnes to maintain his steady production all season and recommend making some buy-low offers on this overachiever.
• Andre Drummond (8.1), Detroit Pistons: Like Barnes, Drummond continues to post steady and quality stats as a reserve. For some perspective on just how much the rookie is doing with his limited role, check out this ESPN Insider piece by Tom Haberstroh.
Considering how much I've been going on and on about Drummond this season, I may in fact be that "NBA hipster" to whom he refers. Haberstroh validates some of my thoughts by comparing Drummond's per-minute production with Dwight Howard's rookie production, while making a case for Drummond as rookie of the year.
In the Fastbreak game, Drummond has posted double-digit points in every game since Dec. 21 and topped 20 points in two of his past three games. That makes him a safe play with four games this week and an affordable $8.1 million contract. As I mentioned, the Pistons have babied their prized rookie, which hopefully will help him avoid the rookie wall. I will be very surprised if they don't put him in the starting lineup and turn him loose by the All-Star break, though. He's all upside, a terrific points-league big man and an excellent buy-low trade candidate.
• Andrei Kirilenko (8.0), Minnesota Timberwolves: Kirilenko remains the clear-cut best value at forward in the Fastbreak game; only 17 players are posting better per-game averages, yet 63 will cost you more to add to your roster. Kirilenko gets a boost for the long term, since Kevin Love will be sidelined for another two-plus months. In the short term, he has a four-game week, which makes him a must-start option for his value. I have little doubt that he will keep up this pace the rest of the season, so long as his body holds up.
Of course, the risk of injuries with Kirilenko is legitimate, since that's the one thing that held him back when he was younger. Considering that he turns 32 a month from today and is averaging the most minutes per game (35) that we've seen with him since the 2005-06 season, that injury risk should be increasing as the season progresses. I love his game in all formats, but I'd be negligent to not recommend trading Kirilenko before his body once again betrays him.
Center
• Brook Lopez (9.3), Brooklyn Nets: Entering the season, the concerns surrounding Lopez included his health and his light rebounding and block production for a 7-footer. As I noted in the preseason, he never missed a game in his first three seasons, so the health concerns were a tad overblown. And when it comes to those big man stats, they don't matter much in points leagues, at least for a guy like Lopez who maintains terrific field goal and free throw percentages with a pretty high volume of attempts.
Well, he's maintained that production this season while averaging a career-high 2.1 blocks per game and a much-improved 7.4 rebounds per game. He has four games in Week 13 and a reasonable contract price, which makes him a good play. You won't really be able to get Lopez as a cheap trade acquisition, but I have complete faith in him the rest of the season, so I think he's worth the investment you'll have to pony up to get him.
• Nikola Pekovic (9.3), Minnesota Timberwolves: Not only does the big fella have four games in Week 13, but they come against some beatable competition: ATL, BKN, WAS, CHA. With the same affordable contract that Lopez has, that makes Pekovic a solid play.
Also, just like Kirilenko, Pekovic is going to see a lot more frontcourt responsibility with Love sidelined for the foreseeable future. Pekovic doesn't dish the rock like Greg Monroe or LaMarcus Aldridge, but the rest of his production is at least comparable to those guys. But since he doesn't have the same name recognition, he will come far cheaper in trades. Go get him.

HacheMan · Jan 22, 2013

[h=1]Post-All-Star schedule breakdown[/h][h=3]Opportunity is key; some teams have as many as 32 games, one has just 26[/h]By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

I want to help set your team up for the rest of the season.

We are now only a little more than a month away from trade deadlines in most fantasy leagues. Which means your window of opportunity to make wholesale improvements to your roster is rapidly closing.

Last week, we focused on individual players who post large splits in their home-versus-road production. This week, I want to show you some ways I track splits and other stats expanded into team-wide production.

This is to help figure out which teams are going to be the most fantasy-friendly after your league's trade deadline. Think of it a strength of schedule translated into fantasy value, specifically tailored to gauge value after All-Star weekend.

Is it important to look at the end-of-season schedules in late January? Absolutely, because after your league's trading deadline -- save for the occasional waiver-wire pickup -- your lineup will essentially be locked in.

So that leaves you a month or so to make tangible changes to your lineups, and changes to the numbers your team puts up on a regular basis.

What are the factors I use to assess strength of schedule?

1. Games played: Obvious choice, but there's nothing more important. Some NBA teams play as many as 32 games after All-Star weekend. One team plays only 26, and several play only 27. That's a 16-19 percent drop in overall volume, which is enough of a swing in production to determine the winner of your fantasy league.

2. Home/Road splits: You not only want a team to play as many games as possible, but as many home games as possible.

3. Pace: The amount of possessions a team uses per game. The higher the pace, the more volume fantasy numbers are generated. More shots, 3s, steals, assists, blocks, points, rebounds and turnovers.

4. Offensive efficiency: Not as important as pure pace in fantasy, but still a vital metric which measures the amount of points a team scores per 100 possessions. These are the teams that also have good percentages.

5. Pace of opponents: A high-volume possession team is only going to do so much against the grind-it-out squads of the league. Take a high-pace squad such as the Lakers, put them on the road in Chicago, and they'll be lucky to crack 90 points.

6. Players at or above 25 minutes per game: Heightened pace isn't going to mean much if said team has only three or four players at or above 25 minutes per game (MPG). That's a sign that the team's production is spread too thin across too many players.

7. Games played in April: If you're supremely confident in your fantasy team's chances, you'll want to pay attention to how many games different NBA teams play over the final two weeks of the season.

With the help of ESPN's Stats & Information department, I compiled numbers for each NBA team along these lines. I'm going to give you the top five and bottom five NBA teams, and some marginal players who will be affected.

In determining high pace and low pace opponents, the top and bottom 10 currently are used.

[h=3]Top Five[/h]
1. Minnesota Timberwolves

Games played: 32
Home/Road split: 16/16
Pace: 94.4 (14th in NBA)
Offensive efficiency: 99.8 (2nd)
High pace/Low pace opponents: 15/10
Players over 25 MPG: 5
April games: 10
Marginal fantasy players affected: PG/SG Alexey Shved, PG/SG Jose Juan Barea, PG/SG Luke Ridnour, PG Ricky Rubio, PF Derrick Williams, PF Dante Cunningham

As Neil Tardy wrote in the Forecaster, the injury bug that's bitten Minnesota with Walking Dead-like power also spells fantasy opportunity. Combine that with an NBA-high 32 games, and you've got a team that bears a lot of watching. The biggest fantasy storyline? Ricky Rubio and whether or not he gets back to 100 percent in time to help owners.

2. New York Knicks

Games played: 32
Home/Road split: 14/18
Pace: 93.2 (22nd in NBA)
Offensive efficiency: 108.7 (3rd)
High pace/Low pace opponents: 6/11
Players over 25 MPG: 5
April games: 10
Marginal fantasy players affected: PG/SG Jason Kidd, PG/SG Iman Shumpert, PF/C Amare Stoudemire

The biggest name to watch obviously is Stoudemire, and whether he becomes a factor as his minutes ramp upward. Keep an eye on Shumpert, who could be a difference maker in steals over the final month of the regular season.

3. Miami Heat

Games played: 32
Home/Road split: 15/17
Pace: 93.8 (18th in NBA)
Offensive efficiency: 108.8 (2nd)
High pace/Low pace opponents: 3/19
Players over 25 MPG: 5
April games: 9
Marginal fantasy players affected: SG Ray Allen, PG Mario Chalmers, SF Shane Battier, SF/SG Mike Miller

Will Miami have the No. 1 seed locked down with a week or two to spare? We all expect the Heat to turn on the afterburners after All-Star weekend, which could lead to them opening up a lead in the Eastern Conference. If they do, it could lead to some extended rest for LeBron, Wade and Bosh, which would mean expanded roles and scoring opportunities up and down the roster.

One area of concern: the 19 upcoming games the Heat have versus low-pace opponents. I'm worried in general about the struggle between Eastern Conference contenders devolving into a late-season numerical cage match.

4. Milwaukee Bucks

Games played: 31
Home/Road split: 15/16
Pace: 96.9 (4th in NBA)
Offensive efficiency: 99.3 (26th)
High pace/Low pace opponents: 8/9
Players over 25 MPG: 3
April games: 10
Marginal fantasy players affected: SG/SF Mike Dunleavy, PF/C Larry Sanders, SF/PF Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, SF/PF Ersan Ilyasova, PF John Henson

Post-Skiles-Vortex-Of-Fantasy-Doom, you can see the Bucks' fantasy production beginning to nose upward. There's some solid young upside on this roster that could help teams down the stretch.

First and foremost, Ilyasova, who finally put it all together last weekend against Portland (27 points, 14 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 3-pointers, 1 block). Ilyasova had a big second half last season; maybe someone can fool him into thinking it's still a contact year. I'm also intrigued to see how Sanders versus Henson plays out on the minutes front.

5. Washington Wizards

Games played: 31
Home/Road split: 16/15
Pace: 94.1 (15th in NBA)
Offensive efficiency: 94.7 (30th)
High pace/Low pace opponents: 9/17
Players over 25 MPG: 6
April games: 9
Marginal fantasy players affected: PF/C Kevin Seraphin, PF/C Nene, C Emeka Okafor, SF Martell Webster, SG/PG Jordan Crawford

Don't look now, but the Wizards have been surprisingly competitive since John Wall's return. Bradley Beal's development over the past month has been somewhat underreported, and you still might be able to swipe him from an unsuspecting owner stuck on season-long averages.

Aside from Beal, monitor how the Wizards dole out minutes amongst Okafor/Nene/Seraphin, and whether or not Webster locks down small forward in convincing fashion. There are a lot of players here hovering around the 25 MPG mark, which could mean a couple of breakouts … or just a bunch of depressing time-shares.

[h=3]Bottom Five[/h]
26. Houston Rockets

Games played: 27
Home/Road split: 15/12
Pace: 99.0 (1st in NBA)
Offensive efficiency: 104.5 (8th)
High pace/Low pace opponents: 15/4
Players over 25 MPG: 6
April games: 8
Marginal fantasy players affected: SF/SG Carlos Delfino, PF Marcus Morris, PF Patrick Patterson

I'm still ranking the Rockets higher than a couple of 28-game teams due to their high-pace, high-efficiency attack and the 15 games against high-pace opponents. I love Delfino's potential, and he doesn't need more than 25-27 minutes a night to be a factor. I suspect Houston could still make another trade, most likely to relieve the logjam at power forward.

27. Detroit Pistons

Games played: 28
Home/Road split: 11/17
Pace: 92.6 (25th in NBA)
Offensive efficiency: 101.0 (18th)
High pace/Low pace opponents: 4/13
Players over 25 MPG: 6
April games: 8
Marginal fantasy players affected: PF/C Andre Drummond, SF/SG Kyle Singler

I get a lot of questions about picking up and stashing injured players like Kevin Love, Andrew Bynum and Anderson Varejao (OK, not him so much in the past 24 hours). To which I say, why not see if Drummond is available in your league? Here's a guy who's trending sky-high right now who could be averaging 15 and 10 by the final month of the season.

28. Sacramento Kings

Games played: 28
Home/Road split: 15/13
Pace: 94.6 (11th in NBA)
Offensive efficiency: 101.6 (14th)
High pace/Low pace opponents: 17/6
Players over 25 MPG: 4
April games: 8
Marginal fantasy players affected: PG Isaiah Thomas, PG/SG/SF Tyreke Evans, SG Marcus Thornton, PF Thomas Robinson, PF/C Jason Thompson

The Kings continue to be an amorphous, murky statistical miasma of frustration and statistical inconsistency. Too many OK-to-pretty good players, not enough defined roles.

29. Utah Jazz

Games played: 27
Home/Road split: 15/12
Pace: 94.1 (15th in NBA)
Offensive efficiency: 103.9 (11th)
High pace/Low pace opponents: 10/10
Players over 25 MPG: 6
April games: 8
Marginal fantasy players affected: SG/SF Gordon Hayward, PF/C Derrick Favors, PG Mo Williams, SG/PG Randy Foye

This is a fantasy situation that could be radically altered via trade. There seems to be a strong possibility that Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap gets dealt, which would open up minutes for Favors (and maybe even Enes Kanter). The other issue here is Mo Williams' prognosis and projected return from his thumb injury.

30. Los Angeles Clippers

Games played: 26
Home/Road split: 15/11
Pace: 94.5 (13th in NBA)
Offensive efficiency: 107.3 (4th)
High pace/Low pace opponents: 9/10
Players over 25 MPG: 5
April games: 8
Marginal fantasy players affected: PG Eric Bledsoe, SF Caron Butler, C DeAndre Jordan, SF Matt Barnes, PF Lamar Odom PF

The Clippers are sort of the yin to the Kings' yang. A team with too much depth at multiple positions, but manages to make it work thanks to team chemistry and veteran leadership. It still means a lot of inconsistency on the fantasy front. The league-low 26 post-All-Star games won't help the likes of Bledsoe and Jordan.

HacheMan · Jan 22, 2013

Pau Gasol plays well in bench role

By Tom Carpenter, ESPN.com

The move arguably was an inevitability, so it really was no surprise to see Pau Gasol coming off the bench when the Los Angeles Lakers battled the Chicago Bulls on Monday. The team had lost eight of its past 10 games, and coach Mike D'Antoni is grasping at straws trying to find the right mix of players on the court.
"We got to go small," D'Antoni said. "That's just the way it is."
"Small" isn't a reference to height -- Gasol's replacement is 6-foot-10 Earl Clark -- rather, it's how deftly players can get up and down the court in D'Antoni's high-speed offense. We'll leave the debates about trying to fit his square peg of a roster into the round hole that is his offensive system for another time and place, but the bottom line is that Gasol simply isn't a good fit.
Coming off the pine could actually benefit his fantasy game, though. With Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard hogging touches, Gasol was never going to be a high-volume producer in L.A. this season. As a reserve, he will face lighter competition, and get the rock in more comfortable positions, which may help him improve his 43.2 percent mark from the field, a number that is nearly 10 percent off his career field goal percentage.
He had 15 points, 12 boards, 2 assists and 2 blocks in just 25 minutes Monday. Unfortunately, he was 6-of-14 from the field and the difference between 50 percent (7-for-14 FG) and 42.9 percent (basically his season average) is one miss. His only hope may be getting comfortable in this new role to boost his value in a potential trade deadline deal. Oh, and for what it's worth, the Lakers lost Monday's game, too.

[h=4]MONDAY, JAN. 21[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Ryan Anderson, Hornets: 27 points, 7 3-pointers, 6 rebounds, no turnovers versus Kings
Nicolas Batum, Trail Blazers: 12 points, 10 rebounds, 11 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks versus Wizards
Evan Turner, 76ers: 18 points, 12 rebounds, 7 assists, 3 turnovers versus Spurs
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Bradley Beal, Wizards: 2 points (1-7 FG), 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 turnovers versus Trail Blazers
Jrue Holiday, 76ers: 15 points (7-20 FG), 2 rebounds, 8 assists, 6 turnovers versus Spurs
John Wall, Wizards: 6 point (2-8 FG), 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers versus Trail Blazers

[h=3]Looking Back[/h]• Speaking of benchings, Chicago Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau benched Joakim Noah for the final 22 minutes of Saturday's game. Noah took the blame for mouthing off to Thibs and responded with a good effort in Monday's victory over the Lakers. Unfortunately, it didn't translate into offense, as he missed six of his eight field goal attempts and finished with just six points. However, he did show up big in rebounding (13) and hustle stats (2 steals and 6 blocks). It appears that this was just a little bump in the road, so Noah will continue to be a solid fantasy play going forward.
• Kawhi Leonard had 16 points, 7 boards, 2 3s and 2 steals in 34 minutes Monday. It's noteworthy because the 34 minutes was the second most he's played all season, and the 13 field goal attempts were the most for Leonard since the season opener. As a guard who shoots 49 percent from the field, Leonard should be watched closely; if coach Gregg Popovich ever commits to giving him a larger and reliable role on offense, Leonard could really break out.
• Nicolas Batum messed around and got a triple-double Monday with 12 points (5-for-10 FG), 10 boards, 11 dimes, 3 steals and 2 blocks. The kid is an absolute fantasy beast with no signs of slowing down. Unfortunately, his Portland Trail Blazers are in the midst of a six-game losing skid.
• After missing two games due to his troublesome ankle, Stephen Curry returned for two games during the holiday weekend. He looked good, tallying 20 points, 7 assists and 4 steals Saturday and 28 points, 6 assists and 6 3s on Monday. If you went into panic mode when he was sidelined due to his chronically troublesome ankle issues, then you darn well better put him on the trading block immediately before he ends up missing a longer stretch. This is your official warning; don't regret it later.
• Reliability in fantasy hoops is important, because then you know what you get with a player each night. Unfortunately, reliably awful isn't very helpful, which brings us to Ricky Rubio, who has tallied exactly six dimes and two turnovers in each of his past four games, and that's the good news. The bad news with Rubio's stats is that, despite starting the past three games, he has hit just six of his 19 field goal attempts (31.6 percent), averaged 5.5 PPG and stolen a total of three balls. I really don't expect much more than this until, perhaps, the waning weeks of the season, as he had major problems with his shooting even before he tore his ACL last year.
[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]• Andrew Bynum said he believes he remains on target to make his Philadelphia 76ers debut around the All-Star break, but we should take that prediction with a pound of salt. First, he hasn't tested his troublesome knees with lateral movement yet. Second, that prediction came from Bynum, not the team or its doctors. He may well return then, but considering his lengthy injury history, we should all remain skeptical. That having been said, it can't hurt to add him to your roster to see if you get lucky in a few weeks.
• A strained right hamstring has kept Luol Deng sidelined the past two games. His status for Wednesday's tilt with the Detroit Pistons is unclear, though the fact that he didn't do Monday's shootaround isn't a great sign. Jimmy Butler has been hot starting in place of Deng, averaging 14.0 points, 8.0 boards, 3.5 assists and 2.0 swipes in 45.0 minutes of action during that time, and should be a good plug-in Wednesday if Deng sits again.
• On Monday, Anthony Davis turned the same ankle that caused him to miss 11 games earlier this season with a stress reaction. He downplayed it afterward and said he is "pretty sure" he'll be ready to play Wednesday, but you'll want to check for updates as the game nears. I do think Davis is going to have a strong finish to the season, but his propensity for injury and the wear and tear of the long NBA season on rookies has me a little bit worried that his body just won't hold up to the grind.
• According to ESPNChicago.com's Nick Friedell, Derrick Rose may begin full-contract practices this week. This is the biggest and most important step in making his return to game action imminent. I should caution that "imminent" in this case may be a few weeks, as Thibs said his star point guard will have to do full-contact practices "for an extended amount of time" before being activated for games, but if his knee responds well and he has no setbacks, we may finally see him in action around the All-Star break.
[h=3]Fast Break Player of the Night[/h]With Tim Duncan going against the New Orleans Hornets, and LeBron James and Kevin Durant playing Wednesday evening, your center and forward spots should be set in stone. At guard, Kobe Bryant has been struggling a bit, so I wouldn't have a problem with subbing in Russell Westbrook in a terrific matchup against the Golden State Warriors and using the red-hot Paul George against the Portland Trail Blazers.

HacheMan · Jan 23, 2013

Most surprising stats from stars

By Seth Landman | Special to ESPN.com

Many teams have reached the halfway point of the 2012-13 season, and while that might normally be a good time to make a fantasy all-star team, I'd like to focus a little more on the numbers. Last month, we took a look in this space at some of the most surprising numbers from the early part of the season. We looked at Al Horford's free throw shooting (it hasn't improved), Greivis Vasquez's assists (they've actually gone up), Andrei Kirilenko's steals and blocks (declining, but still pretty good), and Damian Lillard's crazy rookie numbers across the board (holding steady).

This time around, we'll dig up some surprising new numbers, and as always, we'll focus on whether you can count on them to continue down the stretch.

Rajon Rondo's field goal percentage

Rondo has had seasons in which he's shot better than 50 percent from the floor, so the fact that he's sitting at 48.4 percent at the moment may not strike you as the most surprising thing in the world. On the other hand, his field goal percentage had been declining for two years in a row, and he was at 45 percent last season, so 48.4 percent actually represents a big improvement. Even more surprising is how he's doing it. Per hoopdata.com, Rondo's shooting 48 percent on shots between 16 and 23 feet from the hoop. Get this: Only three players in the league attempt as many shots from that range while shooting as well from the floor. They are Kyrie Irving, Kevin Garnett and Chris Bosh.

What this means is not just that Rondo has managed to improve his jump shot -- we could be looking at a real offensive weapon. Teams around the league have already begun to take notice; you can't just sag off Rondo in the half court anymore. His 3-point shot still isn't a weapon, but he's shown a willingness to shoot more from out there, and given how much he's improved on long 2-pointers, the 3 might not be far behind. At the very least, Rondo's improved jump shot means that he's gone back to being a valuable player for his field goal percentage (third behind Tony Parker and Steve Nash on a per-game basis) in addition to all the other things he does well.

Carmelo Anthony's 3-point shooting

Yes, he's cooling down a little from his scorching start. His month-by-month splits from behind the arc have gone from 44.0 percent in November to 42.6 percent in December to 39.1 percent in January. Amazingly though, his attempts are still climbing, and he's now making 2.7 per game on the season. On a per-game basis, only Stephen Curry and Ryan Anderson are making more 3s than Melo, and even though he's on a Knicks team that was always going to jack up a ton of 3s this season, that qualifies as a major surprise.

Can he keep it up? Other than the 27 games he played after getting moved to New York at the trade deadline in 2011, Melo has never shot better than 37.1 percent on 3s for a season, and the year he did that, he was attempting just 2.6 per game. He's scoring more points than he ever has, but the 3s are the reason he's been a top-10 fantasy option based on his per-game averages. I would expect his shooting percentage to level off a bit, but 3s have become an enormous part of the Knicks' offense, and Melo is getting better looks than ever before in his career. I think he absolutely can keep making more than 2.5 per game the rest of the way.

Tim Duncan's blocks

Duncan is, in my opinion, one of the 10 greatest basketball players of all time. In large part, this is due to his defense, so it is pretty remarkable that at age 36 (he'll be 37 on April 25), he's blocking more shots per minute than he ever has in his career. In fact, he's actually blocking more shots as the season moves along: after averaging 2.5 per game in November and December, he's at 3.5 per game in January. He's averaging more blocks per game than guys like Dwight Howard, Josh Smith and Joakim Noah, and he's racking up those blocks in fewer minutes per game.

As always with Duncan in recent years, there's some risk that coach Gregg Popovich is going to start reducing his minutes, but since he's only at 30.2 per game on the season, the losses probably won't be too heavy. He'll sit from time to time, but that's worth swallowing if it means he can maintain the efficiency he's shown so far. Still, when I look across the board at Duncan's numbers, it's not the increased scoring or rebounding that impresses me most, and it's not even the fact that he's working on a career high in free throw percentage as well. It's the fact that his blocks have nearly doubled from 1.5 per game to 2.7. Time will tell whether he can keep doing this, but given that he's kept it up through the first half of the season, I'm not going to start doubting him now.

Kevin Durant's free throw shooting

After Wednesday night's win over the Clippers, Durant's free throw percentage is up to 91.0 percent. Even in the confines of this one season, that's impressive, good enough for second in the league to his teammate Kevin Martin's 91.1 percent. However, Durant's 91 percent .910 looks even more impressive when you consider it would rank in the top 20 single-season free throw percentages of all time among players who attempted at least five free throws per game. And he's not attempting five per game, he's attempting 9.2.

To give you an idea of how rare that is, I checked basketball-reference.com's Play Index. Durant, it turns out, would be the only player ever to shoot at least 91 percent from the line on at least eight attempts per game. There's some precedent here: Durant is already the only player ever to shoot at least 90 percent on at least 10 attempts per game (the great Dolph Schayes shot 90 percent on nine attempts per game twice, but never 91 percent). The reason I'm telling you all of this is not just to point out that Durant is making some serious history as a shooter this season (but man, look at those numbers!). Rather, it is to point out that the gap between Durant and the next guy in terms of value derived from free throw shooting in fantasy is greater than the gap between the best and the second-best guys in any other category. Basically, Durant alone should be enough to win you free throw percentage unless you have somebody like Dwight Howard weighing you down.

HacheMan · Jan 24, 2013

Sources for rebounds, treys, steals

By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

When executing targeted waiver-wire acquisitions early in the season, your objective is to create as balanced a roster as possible. At this point, however, we're often forced to address statistical deficiencies by eschewing some of that balance and overloading in certain categories. Especially in roto formats, where making up ground means digging your team out of a statistical hole; in head-to-head leagues, roster moves address needs going forward with more immediacy. That's why questions like "should I add Player X or Y?" are impossible to address accurately without complete understanding of team needs and league standings.

This week I'll focus on players contributing in specific categories. If you don't need these categories, several of these players aren't meant for your team, as most of them lack well-rounded value. But when trying to improve that last-place standing in a category, addressing that dearth aggressively is crucial. Consequently, if you have a surplus in another category, you don't have to be as mindful of it when evaluating waiver wire options, and can focus on those who can replenish your team's statistical shortcomings.

Here are some widely available players contributing in rebounds, 3-pointers and steals. Next week I'll focus on points, assists and blocks.

[h=3]Rebounds[/h]Emeka Okafor, C, Washington Wizards (35.5 percent owned): It's surprising that Okafor isn't owned in more leagues, considering he's nearly averaging a double-double this month (9.8 points, 10.5 rebounds). He has notched double-digit boards in six of his past eight games (including 17 rebounds Wednesday night), at least seven in every game since Dec. 18, and perhaps most importantly, he has seen his playing time increase in each month of the season. His 18.7 rebounds per 48 minutes ranks sixth among all players averaging at least 20 minutes per game in January, and the Wizards are sticking to their offseason plan of developing a mature frontcourt. Okafor and Nen� are earning most of the minutes, leaving Kevin Seraphin and Trevor Booker sad and lonely. Okafor is a must-own for anyone in need of rebounds.

Earl Clark, PF, Los Angeles Lakers (14.1 percent owned): Clark retained the starting power forward spot in Los Angeles upon Pau Gasol's return from concussion, primarily due to the energy he provides this aging team on both ends of the floor, as well as his defensive versatility. He fits ideally in a Mike D'Antoni system, given his ability to stretch the floor and defend multiple positions. He's averaging 8.8 rebounds per game this month and continues seeing minutes in the 30s despite the fact that Gasol and Dwight Howard are both healthy enough to play. The icing on the cake is that he'll drain the occasional 3-pointer, something he did in college and is encouraged by D'Antoni for frontcourt players. Clark ranks 38th on the Player Rater over the past 15 days and is undoubtedly worth a roster spot as long as he remains a starter.

Kendrick Perkins, C, Oklahoma City Thunder (1.1 percent owned): Perkins looks clumsy and seemingly has a negative impact for the Thunder when he's on the court -- his minus-5.7 plus/minus is by far the lowest of any player on the team getting significant minutes -- but he has put up solid stats recently, averaging 7.5 rebounds, 1.0 blocks and 0.8 steals per game over the past three weeks. Perkins has a season of 8.1 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game (in 2008-09 with the Celtics) already under his belt, and is a career 54.6 percent shooter from the floor, so there's some statistical ability here for those in deep leagues.

Marreese Speights, PF/C, Cleveland Cavaliers (0.3 percent owned): Speights likely will see a bump in minutes now that he's in Cleveland with Anderson Varejao out for the season, which should result in nice rebound totals. His total rebound rate (percentage of total rebounds grabbed by a player during his time on the court) of 19.8 ranks 12th in the league, higher than Tyson Chandler, Dwight Howard and Kenneth Faried, and he has demonstrated competency when given extended minutes, such as last February, when he averaged 9.1 points, 7.1 rebounds and 0.7 blocks per game in 14 contests. His offensive, defensive and total rebounding rate are the highest of his career, and the unfavorable reputation he gained in Philly has been shed since he moved to Memphis and should hopefully carry over to a Cleveland team in desperate need for some frontcourt help. He'll frustrate Cavs fans with his penchant for missing midrange jumpers and his suspect defense, but in fantasy, he has the tools to put up respectable numbers with increased playing time.

[h=3]3-pointers[/h]

Steve Novak, SF/PF, New York Knicks (9.5 percent owned): This one is pretty obvious; Novak drains 3s (2.1 per game). He does little else, but he's dependable from beyond the arc. Add him if you're desperate for 3-pointers, especially in leagues that count turnovers, since his impact is nonexistent in that category.

Devin Harris, PG/SG, Atlanta Hawks (5.7 percent owned): I would feature him for assists next week, but he'll likely be gobbled up in a considerable amount of leagues by then with Lou Williams out for the season and Harris looking to benefit considerably. Harris is currently sidelined by a sprained ankle but should return soon and see significant statistical improvement. As his quickness and scoring have declined throughout his career, his 3-point shooting has improved, and he's averaging 1.3 3-pointers per game in just 23.4 minutes this season, and 1.7 per game this month. He could easily see his minutes hit 30-plus, and he'll be an excellent source of 3s, with a respectable free throw percentage and decent assists and steals totals given the increased opportunity. I especially love his shooting guard eligibility, as it allows you to get some of the typical stats from that slot (3s, steals) while also accruing assists, since Harris runs the offense at times as well. As soon as he returns, his ownership percentage will skyrocket, so it might be wise to pre-emptively roster him.

Luke Babbitt, SF, Portland Trail Blazers (0.1 percent owned): This one is only for those super-deep leagues, as Babbitt simply doesn't get enough playing time for traditional formats. But when he's on the court, he launches with epic frequency, averaging 3.2 3-point attempts in just 12.9 minutes per game, or 11.9 attempts per 48 minutes, a higher rate than gunners such as Ryan Anderson and J.J. Redick. The Blazers' roster is as deep as a kiddie pool, so any major injury to a wing player could open up considerable minutes for Babbitt, who obviously has high 3-point upside if he gets more run and is capable of providing them now despite his lack of opportunity.

[h=3]Steals

Alonzo Gee, SG/SF, Cleveland Cavaliers (26.8 percent owned): His scoring and minutes per game have decreased marginally in January, but he remains a stout defensive presence and maintains high steal totals, averaging 1.4 per game this month. He's also averaging 1.0 3s during that span with just 1.3 turnovers, so his value increases in leagues that add the ninth category. He's steady in the steals department, registering at least one in eight of the past nine Cavs contests. Gee's decrease in overall productivity has caused him to be dropped in many leagues, but his defensive prowess and versatility makes him invaluable for the Cavs, so he should continue to play significant minutes despite the additions of Wayne Ellington and Josh Selby. If you're in a league in which he was dropped and you need steals, scoop him up.

Courtney Lee, SG, Boston Celtics (4.5 percent owned): Lee's minutes have taken a hit with the return of Avery Bradley, but he consistently has been an excellent source of steals throughout his career and is averaging 1.9 steals to go along with 1.3 3s in his past eight contests. He's dependable for swipes -- he has at least one steal in 11 of his past 13 games -- and although his upside is low with a healthy Boston backcourt, he'll help you chip away at a steals deficit in deep formats.

Darrell Arthur, PF, Memphis Grizzlies (0.1 percent owned): With the Grizzlies streamlining their roster and jettisoning Speights, Arthur is now the primary backup in the Memphis frontcourt. And early returns are positive, as indicated by his 20 points, nine rebounds, one steal and one block in 28 minutes Wednesday night. He provides decent scoring, rebounding and blocks, but his 0.6 steals per game in 18.6 minutes for his career indicates that he could be around a steal per game in his new role. New Grizzlies exec John Hollinger is a fan, which bodes well for his future with the franchise and playing time going forward. Only 21 power forward-eligible players average at least one steal per game, and 17 of them are owned in more than 50 percent of leagues. I've harped on getting atypical production from roster spots to make up ground in certain categories, and given the bump in minutes Arthur is poised to receive, he should be a lucrative source of steals from the power forward position.

[/h]

HacheMan · Jan 24, 2013

Clark not thinking about his future

By Nick Borges | ESPN.com

Earl Clark is set to become a free agent in July and a few weeks ago his market was low, but he's come on recently and if it continues for the duration of the season there will be plenty of teams calling his agent in the summer.
<offer>
This is good news financially for Clark, but he's not thinking about anything accept helping the Lakers get into the playoffs.

"It's not like I'm this big free agent where I'll be at SportsCenter and people are asking me where I'm going," Clark tells the Los Angeles Daily News. "I'm focusing on the game and trying to continue to play well."

Clark is one of the few players who have improved since Mike D'Antoni was named head coach and he's grateful for the chance to show off his skills.

"I want to continue to work hard and not give in and get too big-headed. I'll just stay humble," said Clark.

Clark is making $1.24 million this season.</offer>

HacheMan · Jan 25, 2013

The end of Segment 1 is drawing near

By Tom Carpenter
ESPN.com

The NBA announced the All-Star Game reserves this week. This is a great time of year for hoops pundits because everyone gets the chance to spout off about why Player A should have been named to his conference's team, while Player B shouldn't have. Over here in fantasyland, though, the announcement of the full All-Star rosters has a different implication: It marks the end of Segment 1 in our Fastbreak games. Segment 1 runs through the final game prior to the All-Star break (the end of Week 16), and Segment 2 runs from the first game after the break through the final game of the regular season.
With just two weeks and change before the All-Star break, we're in the stretch run for Segment 1. It also means that strength of schedule over this final stretch will be critical to all teams that set weekly lineups in the salary-cap version of the Fastbreak game. This is also an important part of the season for all teams involved in head-to-head points leagues, as the postseason isn't far off in that format. With that in mind, let's take a look at which teams have the most promising schedules and which teams you may want to avoid when picking players in Weeks 14, 15 and 16.
This week (Week 14) is relatively weak across the board, as only 11 teams (CHI, DET, GS, LAL, MIL, NO, ORL, SAC, TOR, UTA, WAS) play four times. That leaves most teams with a three-game slate, but even less enticing are the Atlanta Hawks, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs, all of whom play just twice. That's a tough hit in Fastbreak because Josh Smith (who may run hot leading up to the trade deadline) and points-league studs such as Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Al Horford are basically rendered useless in the short term. At least the Thunder return next week with four games and play two in Week 16 (the Spurs and Hawks finish Segment 1 with just three games next week and two in Week 16).
Week 15 is a little more forgiving across the board, as only the Chicago Bulls are limited to two games, while 17 teams play four times. Week 16, the shortened week leading up to All-Star weekend, limits every team to no more than two games, but the Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic and Phoenix Suns will have just a single game that week.
We shouldn't fret much about that final week right now, but it's worth keeping in mind when looking at the total games in which a player will take part during the final three weeks of Segment 1. Overall, the Detroit Pistons (4, 4, 2), Los Angeles Lakers (4, 4, 2) and Utah Jazz (4, 4, 2) have the best schedules over that stretch. But for that single-game situation in Week 16, the Warriors (4, 4, 1) and Magic (4, 4, 1) would be right up there, too. Still, players from those teams will be good plays the next two weeks.
Not so promising over the next two weeks will be players from the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Indiana Pacers and Philadelphia 76ers, which all play back-to-back three-game sets. You may want to consider players from the Grizzlies, Knicks or Suns in Week 15 (when they play four times), but you'll want to avoid them this week (when they play thrice) and in Week 16 (just one game, as mentioned previously).
Now that we've looked ahead at the schedule, let's examine some of the better values for Week 14.
Guards
Stephen Curry (10.7), Warriors: If you can't quite afford the requisite $10.7 million to ink Curry this week, you can look at Brandon Jennings ($10.6 million) or Greivis Vasquez ($10.6 million), who will cost you $100K less but also play four games in Week 14. However, as noted above, Curry plays four games each of the next two weeks and two times in Week 16. That promising schedule looks even better when you consider the low level of defensive competition he will face in his four games this coming week: TOR, CLE, DAL and PHO. All four of those teams are among the worst 10 teams in points allowed this season, and the Warriors happen to be tied with the Suns for ninth with 99.4 points allowed each game. So long as Curry's ankles hold up, he should be an extremely valuable play, despite the relatively hefty cost.
Steve Nash (9.4), Lakers: Not surprisingly, at least to me, is that Nash is not performing like the Nash of old. Nonetheless, he is still the primary ball handler for the Lakers, which means 20-point Fastbreak games are a regular occurrence. He also has a pretty tasty schedule in Week 14; the Lakers face the Hornets, Suns, Wolves and Pistons. In other words, he carries some pretty high upside and comes at a reasonable price.
Eric Gordon (8.3), New Orleans Hornets; Isaiah Thomas (8.3), Sacramento Kings; and Bradley Beal (8.4), Washington Wizards: All three of these guys have both terrific contract prices and terrific upside. Unfortunately, all three also have issues that have kept them from maintaining reliably consistent production from game to game. Gordon is still working his way back into shape; Thomas is starting and playing big minutes but hasn't quite found that consistency; Beal is nursing a wrist injury. All three have difficult games on their schedules in Week 15, but their price/upside ratio is strong enough to roll the dice on at least one of them. Note that all three have the same number-of-games-played schedule leading up to the All-Star break: 4, 3, 2.
Forwards
Luol Deng (10.3), Bulls: Deng has missed the past three games due to a hamstring injury; obviously, he will have to get back on the hardwood before Monday in order for you to consider using him in your Week 14 lineups. However, he carries some terrific upside into Week 14 if he is back to full strength. The Bulls play four games, largely against inferior competition (CHA, MIL, BKN, ATL), which means a healthy Deng should have little problem posting big numbers.
Ersan Ilyasova (9.2), Milwaukee Bucks: Despite his general struggles since the Bucks cut ties with coach Scott Skiles, I continued to recommend Ilyasova as a long-term fantasy option, and it looks like things may finally be clicking again for the young big man. In his past two games, Ilyasova has averaged 27 points and 15 rebounds, which has converted into Fastbreak games of 44 and 43. Based on the terrific numbers he posted after the All-Star break last season, we know that these numbers are not a fluke. In fact, big games like that should become a regular affair for Ilyasova the rest of this season. With a four-game slate and a reasonable price, Ilyasova makes for a terrific Week 14 Fastbreak play.
Andre Drummond (8.2), Pistons: I talked about Drummond last week, and he has continued to shine since then, despite his limited minutes. Still working as a reserve and rarely topping 22-23 minutes per game, Drummond racked up games of 22, 20 and 14 since my last column. He will have his hands full tonight against the Miami Heat, but he has a pretty friendly schedule in Week 14 (MIL, IND, CLE, LAL), and you simply can't beat the upside Drummond brings at $8.2 million.
Center
Nikola Vucevic (9.9), Magic: There isn't much to be said here. The kid basically can't help but pull down a big double-double each and every game; he has done exactly that in all but two games this month, and he missed a double-dub by just one rebound in both of those contests. Overall, in 11 January games, Vucevic is averaging 14.5 points, 13.0 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game on 55.6 percent from the field and 11.5 field goal attempts per game. Those are great numbers in any format, but especially in points leagues. He's a no-brainer play for his four games in Week 14.
Larry Sanders (9.0), Bucks: Even when Sanders doesn't come up big in scoring or rebounding, he can keep his value afloat by rejecting a bunch of shots each game. To wit, he has blocked at least two shots in every game in January and is averaging a mindboggling 3.6 blocker per game this month. When he does hit the glass and score, Sanders is a threat for 20 or more Fastbreak points. If you are hard up against the cap, Sanders is an excellent upside value at $9.0 million in Week 14.

HacheMan · Jan 25, 2013

Dragic flourishing under Hunter

By Josh Whitling, Special to ESPN.com

The rumblings that Suns interim head coach Lindsey Hunter was a Kendall Marshall advocate and concern that Goran Dragic would see a decrease in value seem to carry little weight; Dragic scored 24 points with eight assists, five rebounds and three 3-pointers against the Clippers, going 11-for-14 from the free throw line. Additionally, Marshall didn't get off the bench for the fourth consecutive game. Early returns with Hunter at the helm are positive for Dragic, who is averaging 18 points and 9.5 assists per game in the small sample size. That's encouraging for Dragic owners, who likely have been disappointed by his failure to break out and become a top-10 point guard. His average draft position of 32.8 carried high expectations after he averaged 18.0 points, 8.4 assists, 1.8 3-pointers and 1.8 steals per game in 28 starts for the Rockets last season. He has been up and down this season, averaging just 14.2 points, 6.2 assists, 1.3 3s and 1.5 steals per game.

I have remained high on Dragic. I love his skill set and ability to accrue assists, 3s and steals, and I see his struggles as a natural adjustment that comes along with running his first team on a full-time basis. He ranks No. 61 overall on the Player Rater for the season, but he has the tools to be top-30 from here on out. Dragic is an excellent buy-low candidate if his owner is frustrated by his overall numbers so far.

[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• Amar'e Stoudemire scored 15 points with nine rebounds in 20 minutes off the bench for the Knicks, and has been a consistent source of points recently, averaging 14.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game over the past four contests. His fantasy game has morphed into Stoudemire being an efficient bench player, and he's shooting 48.6 percent from the floor and 77.4 percent from the stripe this month, with just 1.1 turnovers per game. I had doubts he'd have any value this year, and his lack of defense makes him avoidable in shallow formats, but in deeper leagues, he provides some stability and should see his value increase as the season progresses and he's capable of playing more and more minutes.

• Ed Davis scored 12 points with eight rebounds and three blocks Thursday and has been quietly solid over the past month, scoring in double figures in nine straight games and averaging 13.9 points on 54.8 percent shooting with 8.0 rebounds and 0.9 blocks per game in January. He's most valuable in field goal percentage, where he's the 10th most helpful player over the past 30 days, according to the Player Rater. But because his stats aren't flashy, he's still available in 29.1 percent of leagues. He should be owned in any league that factors in field goal percentage, and he is rumored to be in line to keep his starting job even when Andrea Bargnani returns.

• Jameer Nelson scored 14 points with 11 assists, three 3-pointers and three steals in the Magic's loss to the Raptors, continuing his excellent stretch (he's No. 16 on the Player Rater over the past 15 days). Nelson is averaging a sparkling 19.6 points, 8.3 assists, 3.3 3s and 1.6 steals this month, and if he keeps it up for another week, he'll finish up the best statistical month of his career. Anytime a player posts his best month ever after eight years in the league, I'm looking to sell high on him. Although Nelson has been terrific and should continue being a productive source of points, assists, 3s and steals, he won't keep up this pace. He is worth shopping while his value is so high.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Nikola Pekovic and Alexey Shved didn't travel with the Wolves on their current road trip, so look for increased contributions from fringe players such as Chris Johnson, who has 10.4 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.7 blocks in his three games with Minnesota. The second-year forward is playing with his fifth team already, but he should put up solid block totals while Pek is out, as he averaged 2.6 blocks per game his senior year at LSU and boasts size and athleticism. With the Wolves' roster ravaged by injuries, Johnson has become a short-term, deep-league option for owners in search of swats.

• New Cavs Marreese Speights, Wayne Ellington and Josh Selby aren't expected to play until Tuesday, so Tyler Zeller and Tristan Thompson will continue to play huge minutes in the Cavs' frontcourt. When the new players are implemented, pay close attention to how minutes are distributed. Speights and Ellington could both have some value if they get significant playing time, Speights for rebounds and Ellington for 3s.

• Dwight Howard is day-to-day after aggravating his shoulder injury, so Pau Gasol could start at center and see additional playing time Friday. He has been effective off the bench, averaging 16.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in 28.8 minutes per game since returning from his concussion. Those are numbers that make him worth reinserting into fantasy lineups, but they are not satisfying for owners who drafted him in the second or third round. I still view Gasol as a buy-low option, as he has benefited from being on the court when Howard isn't and could still be traded to a team where he's in a more fruitful situation.

HacheMan · Jan 27, 2013

[h=1]Five players to avoid trading for[/h][h=3]Josh Smith among five players to avoid at the NBA trade deadline[/h]By Joe Kaiser | ESPN Insider

NBA trade season is finally here.

Memphis and Cleveland officially got things rolling this week with the first deal of 2013, and you can count on plenty more trade rumors to surface in the weeks ahead as we approach the league's Feb. 21st trade deadline.

Just remember, there are many layers to every trade that go well beyond a player's value on the court today.

In many cases, it's the other factors that weigh more heavily: the contracts involved, salary cap and luxury tax implications, depth chart changes, team chemistry, winning now versus winning later. The list goes on and on.

Considering all of the factors above, here is a look at five players who teams should avoid on the trade market this season.

Josh Smith | PF | Atlanta Hawks

As fun as it is to watch the high-flying lefty play the game, and as much as he could provide a big lift to a contender in need of an athletic power forward who can score and defend, the 27-year-old brings a big element of risk for a number of reasons. Smith's at an age where he should be in the prime of his career, yet his scoring and rebounding numbers are down this season and his player efficiency rating has plummeted almost four points to 17.35. That's alarming. Throw in the fact that he'll be an unrestricted free agent this summer, and you can see why trading for him would be a huge gamble.

<center>Smith</center>
<offer>
ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton pointed out last week that "whoever deals for Smith should have the upper hand in re-signing him because they can offer an additional year and larger raises on his next contract," which make sense, but that team will probably also have to include some promising players to get him -- without any guarantee that he'll be more than a three-month rental. On top of that, Smith told the Atlanta Journal Constitution on Friday that he "sees himself as a max player," which begs the question whether any team can actually win it all in the age of LeBron James and Kevin Durant with Smith as its No. 1 option. Any team that trades for him probably has to look at him through that prism.

Courtney Lee | SG | Boston Celtics

Lee has become redundant in Boston with the return of Avery Bradley, a younger and much more affordable shooting guard who has quickly established himself as one of the league's top on-ball defenders. As such, Lee's name is one that often comes up in trade rumors regarding the Celtics.

<center>Lee</center>

Unless he's simply a smaller part of a big package that lands Boston a big-name player, though, it's difficult to see what other teams would see in Lee based on how he's performed this season. His 11.87 PER is the lowest it has been since his rookie season, he's turning the ball over at the highest rate of his career (11.4 percent of his possessions) and his scoring (12.8 points per 40 minutes) has never been lower. At age 27, these are scary trends that could conceivably lead to Lee becoming a deeper reserve in the years ahead, whether in Boston or elsewhere. Considering that he's guaranteed over $5 million for three more seasons after 2012-13, teams would be wise to demand other options from Boston in trade talks.

Andrea Bargnani | PF | Toronto Raptors

Toronto would love to unload the two years and $23 million owed to Bargnani beyond this season -- and it has a number of strong frontcourt options in Amir Johnson and Ed Davis to fill his void -- but finding a taker could prove to be difficult. It will take a team with a lot of cap space in the years ahead and one that also covets a big man who can stretch the floor. Might it be time to revisit the Bargnani and Jose Calderon for Pau Gasol trade rumor?

<center>Bargnani</center>

The No. 1 overall pick in 2006 has the rare skill set of a 7-footer who hits 3s consistently, but it's increasingly difficult to overlook his deficiencies as a defender and rebounder. He is averaging just 5.8 rebounds per 36 minutes over the course of his career, a number that had sunk to a career-worst 4.8 in the 21 games he played prior to his injury this season. Making matters worse is that the Raptors have played considerably better without Bargnani (12-11) this season than with him (4-17), and it really isn't even close. He's due to come back from his elbow injury in the near future, but it's safe to say his trade value has never been lower.

Tayshaun Prince | SF | Detroit Pistons

Prince has long been considered one of the league's top "glue guys", and his name is sure to come up as a possibility for contending teams looking to add a savvy wing defender. Teams like Milwaukee, Golden State, Utah and maybe even Houston all fit that description.

<center>Prince</center>

The problem is that Prince is still playing big minutes (32.5 mpg) in his 11th season in the league and will turn 33 next month. That isn't to say he's washed up. In fact, thanks in large part to Prince, Pistons small forwards have a PER 1.8 points higher than their opponents this season, according to 82games.com. The problem is that Prince is guaranteed $7.23 million next season and $7.70 million in 2014-15 (when he turns 35), which is a lot of money to be wrapped up in a veteran who has logged a ton of minutes in his career and has seen his scoring (11.9 ppg) dip to its lowest point since the 2003-04 season.

Tyreke Evans | PG/SG/SF | Sacramento Kings

Evans is enjoying his best offensive season in his fourth year in the league, and at age 23 he certainly still has room for growth (particularly as a shooter). For that reason, any team looking to add offense in the form of a big swingman who can penetrate and finish at the rim has to have Evans on its radar.

<center>Evans</center>

Problem is, with his size and rare skill set, Evans has proven to be a matchup problem not only for opponents but also for his own coaches. Finding a position where he can excel remains a major question; much like Tony Wroten in Memphis, he's at his best with the ball in his hands but he's also a poor shooter and not always a willing passer. Any team that trades for him (Boston, Minnesota, Phoenix and Memphis all rank in the bottom 11 in terms of offensive efficiency and could be interested) has to be willing to give back a high draft pick or a solid package of players, and more importantly has to also be prepared to spend money over the summer when Evans is set to become a restricted free agent. </offer>

HacheMan · Jan 28, 2013

Pierce a buy-low due to Rondo injury

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com

There's no getting around it, Rajon Rondo's torn ACL is a devastating blow to fantasy owners. Rondo, who was sitting at 16th overall on our Player Rater on the strength of his league-leading 11.1 assists and dominant 1.8 steals per game, will miss the duration of the season (and a decent chunk of next season). Although Rondo's owners are reeling at the news, his injury creates an opportunity for the rest of the Celtics' roster to step up in his absence.

[h=3]The Top 130[/h]Note: Brian McKitish's top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2012-13 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses.

1. Kevin Durant, OKC (1)
2. LeBron James, MIA (2)
3. Chris Paul, LAC (3)
4. Russell Westbrook, OKC (4)
5. James Harden, HOU (6)
6. Kyrie Irving, CLE (7)
7. Nicolas Batum, POR (8)
8. Stephen Curry, GS (9)
9. Kobe Bryant, LAL (5)
10. Carmelo Anthony, NY (10)
11. Serge Ibaka, OKC (11)
12. Paul George, IND (15)
13. Marc Gasol, MEM (12)
14. Joakim Noah, CHI (14)
15. Jrue Holiday, PHI (17)
16. Dwyane Wade, MIA (20)
17. Deron Williams, BKN (24)
18. Brandon Jennings, MIL (19)
19. Damian Lillard, POR (18)
20. Josh Smith, ATL (21)
21. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR (16)
22. Al Jefferson, UTAH (22)
23. David Lee, GS (23)
24. Brook Lopez, BKN (27)
25. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (28)
26. Greg Monroe, DET (32)
27. Kemba Walker, CHA (35)
28. Paul Pierce, BOS (26)
29. Anthony Davis, NO (30)
30. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (25)
31. John Wall, WSH (50)
32. Dwight Howard, LAL (33)
33. Mike Conley, MEM (34)
34. Blake Griffin, LAC (39)
35. Ty Lawson, DEN (42)
36. Zach Randolph, MEM (29)
37. Andrei Kirilenko, MIN (40)
38. Chris Bosh, MIA (31)
39. Greivis Vasquez, NO (41)
40. Tim Duncan, SA (43)
41. Ryan Anderson, NO (47)
42. Tony Parker, SA (48)
43. Monta Ellis, MIL (45)
44. Wesley Matthews, POR (46)
45. Al Horford, ATL (51)
46. Larry Sanders, MIL (58)
47. Rudy Gay, MEM (37)
48. Steve Nash, LAL (36)
49. J.R. Smith, NY (38)
50. Paul Millsap, UTAH (52)
51. George Hill, IND (53)
52. Klay Thompson, GS (54)
53. Jameer Nelson, ORL (63)
54. Danilo Gallinari, DEN (49)
55. O.J. Mayo, DAL (57)
56. Goran Dragic, PHO (60)
57. Kenneth Faried, DEN (44)
58. Luol Deng, CHI (55)
59. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (73)
60. Andre Iguodala, DEN (56)
61. Joe Johnson, BKN (62)
62. Pau Gasol, LAL (68)
63. Eric Gordon, NO (64)
64. Roy Hibbert, IND (69)
65. Marcin Gortat, PHO (66)
66. Carlos Boozer, CHI (67)
67. Tyreke Evans, SAC (72)
68. Jeff Teague, ATL (82)
69. Amare Stoudemire, NY (91)
70. Kevin Martin, OKC (75)
71. Kevin Garnett, BOS (77)
72. Raymond Felton, NY (96)
73. Jeremy Lin, HOU (74)
74. Ricky Rubio, MIN (71)
75. Nikola Pekovic, MIN (59)
76. Evan Turner, PHI (78)
77. Jamal Crawford, LAC (83)
78. David West, IND (88)
79. Thaddeus Young, PHI (80)
80. Tyson Chandler, NY (65)
81. Nene, WSH (86)
82. Tristan Thompson, CLE (101)
83. Nikola Vucevic, ORL (87)
84. Omer Asik, HOU (70)
85. J.J. Hickson, POR (85)
86. Jarrett Jack, GS (103)
87. Manu Ginobili, SA (76)
88. Darren Collison, DAL (104)
89. J.J. Redick, ORL (98)
90. Andre Drummond, DET (99)
91. Arron Afflalo, ORL (81)
92. Amir Johnson, TOR (121)
93. Jose Calderon, TOR (100)
94. Metta World Peace, LAL (102)
95. Kyle Lowry, TOR (89)
96. Kyle Korver, ATL (NR)
97. Kawhi Leonard, SA (93)
98. Ramon Sessions, CHA (119)
99. DeMar DeRozan, TOR (97)
100. Ed Davis, TOR (129)
101. Chandler Parsons, HOU (105)
102. Carlos Delfino, HOU (NR)
103. Danny Granger, IND (114)
104. Luis Scola, PHO (108)
105. Tyler Zeller, CLE (NR)
106. Gerald Wallace, BKN (84)
107. Brandon Knight, DET (79)
108. Tiago Splitter, SA (NR)
109. Emeka Okafor, WSH (NR)
110. Marcus Thornton, SAC (107)
111. Dion Waiters, CLE (92)
112. Jason Terry, BOS (NR)
113. Jared Dudley, PHO (95)
114. Derrick Rose, CHI (116)
115. Luke Ridnour, MIN (NR)
116. Isaiah Thomas, SAC (117)
117. Andrea Bargnani, TOR (122)
118. Kevin Love, MIN (123)
119. Bradley Beal, WSH (113)
120. Gerald Henderson, CHA (106)
121. JaVale McGee, DEN (112)
122. Avery Bradley, BOS (NR)
123. Jason Kidd, NY (90)
124. Al-Farouq Aminu, NO (NR)
125. Rodney Stuckey, DET (94)
126. Derrick Favors, UTAH (118)
127. Glen Davis, ORL (NR)
128. Eric Bledsoe, LAC (NR)
129. Andrew Bynum, PHI (125)
130. Vince Carter, DAL (130)

It seems strange to say it because Rondo makes everyone else on the court better, but from a fantasy perspective, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett may end up as indirect beneficiaries, as they'll be asked to shoulder a much heavier load on the offensive end. Pierce, by the way, is a fantastic buy-low candidate after struggling with just 16.1 points on 39.4 percent shooting this month.

After Pierce and Garnett, the Celtics have a variety of players who will need to step up in Rondo's absence, including Jason Terry, Avery Bradley, Courtney Lee, Leandro Barbosa and perhaps even Jeff Green. After all the dust settles, I expect Terry and Bradley to be the main beneficiaries of Rondo's injury and both should be considered quality waiver-wire candidates for anyone in need of steals and 3-pointers. Terry dropped 13 points with a 3-pointer and a steal in 32 minutes in Sunday's contest against the Heat, while Bradley posted 9 points with 2 steals and a 3-pointer in 28 minutes as a starter.

Rondo's injury isn't the only big storyline that's come up since we last updated the rankings two weeks ago; let's take a closer look at some of the big movers in this week's Dish:

• We've seen flashes of brilliance like this from Amir Johnson before, but never for an extended period of time like we're seeing now. With 14.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.3 blocks in 13 games since the turn of the calendar, Johnson is finally making good on the promise that made him a popular deep-sleeper pick a few years back. Plagued by inconsistent play and foul trouble throughout his career, many have questioned if they can continue to rely on him going forward. Personally, I think Johnson will be a solid fantasy player the rest of the way, but there's no denying that there's a little "sell-high" feeling here, particularly once Andrea Bargnani and Jonas Valanciunas return to the lineup. I realize that the Raptors are playing pretty well without Bargs and Valanciunas, and Johnson should continue to log heavy minutes upon their return, but it's still likely that there's a minor regression on the way for Johnson.

• Ersan Ilyasova isn't the only one that's benefiting from more consistent lineups under head coach Jim Boylan. Larry Sanders has taken advantage of a recent spike in playing time to post 13.2 points, 9.4 rebounds and 2.4 blocks in 30.2 minutes over his past five games. Sanders has been a rebounding and shot-blocking extraordinaire in only 25.4 minutes per game for much of the season, and he has a chance to add even more value if he's going to continue to see 30 minutes per night. Ilyasova, meanwhile, has posted 21.2 points, 10.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks and 2.4 3-pointers in his past five games, which makes me feel really good about stubbornly keeping him in the top 130 all this time.

• It didn't take John Wall much time to make his mark on the fantasy season, posting 14.1 points, 6.7 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.9 blocks in only 25.0 minutes per game upon his return. Wall's per-minute numbers are already off the charts, and although he still has some fantasy limitations (poor field goal percentage and lack of 3-pointers), he's going to be dominant in points, assists and steals as soon as his minutes round back into shape. Speaking of the Wizards, I'm not yet ready to write Bradley Beal off after his recent slump. Give the 19-year-old a few more games to mesh with Wall before cutting him from your fantasy roster.

• Kyle Korver has bounced in and out of the top 130 for much of the season, but he'll probably stick in the rankings long term now that Louis Williams will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Korver has been on fire since the injury, with 18.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 4.6 3-pointers in 39.8 minutes over his past five games. Of course, we should remember that while Korver is a terrific 3-point shooter, he's still fairly limited in the fantasy game since he'll contribute in only a few categories. Jeff Teague, who has had an up-and-down season, also gets a huge boost in value with Williams out. Teague is posting 17.0 points, 7.4 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.2 3-pointers since the injury.

• Tristan Thompson and Tyler Zeller continue to get it done in the paint for the Cavs with Anderson Varejao now out for the season. Thompson has been flirting with double-doubles on a nightly basis for some time now, while Zeller has been a rebounding and shot-blocking force for the better part of a month. In their past five games, Thompson is posting 16.8 points, 9.6 boards, 1.0 steals and 1.4 blocks, while Zeller has added 8.0 points, 10.2 rebounds and 1.6 blocks. Both should continue to perform at a high level for the duration of the season.

• If you couldn't tell by my ranking of Tiago Splitter at 108th overall, I think he'll have some staying power at center for the Spurs in the second half. Some may think that Splitter will phase out once Tim Duncan returns to the lineup, but I'm encouraged by his play of late and it's no secret that Gregg Popovich likes to rest his aging players in the second half. That means Splitter should continue to earn heavy minutes the rest of the way. With 12.4 points, 7.9 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and terrific percentages in 14 games this month, Splitter offers nice value as a waiver-wire addition.

• Always a quality fantasy option when he's earning consistent minutes, Carlos Delfino has been able to carve out a solid 27-30 minutes a night in Houston. Delfino is averaging 12.9 points, 1.2 steals and 2.9 3-pointers since the start of January, and he offers quite a bit of value thanks to his ability to quickly rack up steals and 3-pointers. He's not the most exciting fantasy player, but he sure gets it done as a glue guy.

HacheMan · Jan 29, 2013

[h=1]Specific team positions with value[/h][h=3]Wolves, Cavs 2-guard, Pistons power forward/center spots have great potential[/h]By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

I have a tendency to fixate. One fixation I've allowed to develop has been a sort of positional radar.

What I mean by this is that over the course of an NBA season -- or sometimes several seasons -- I begin to pay extra attention to certain roles on certain teams.

Power forward in Milwaukee. Small forward in Cleveland (post LeBron). Not because the players occupying these roles are dominant fantasy players, or even serviceable ones. I pay attention to them because they are specific positions that could develop into a 28-32 minutes per game role for a young player with high fantasy upside.

Those are the spots that can, with patience, pay out big late-season dividends.

Here are the conditions that must exist for a specific position to land on my radar:

1. The team is lottery bound

An established playoff team is going to be less likely to give starter's minutes to unproven players. Look at how long it's taken Tiago Splitter to play his way onto the fantasy radar in San Antonio. I guarantee you that if he had been drafted by, say, Charlotte, he'd have been averaging 15 and 9 for the entire season, and not just over his past five games.

2. The team must have a certain position that has not been held down by an established player for multiple seasons

Does a team feature one or more time-shares? Have they drafted multiple saviors, acquired numerous long-term solutions to anchor a certain role … only to have that savior flame out within the confines of his rookie season?

That's what you want, because those teams are dying to have someone come in and lock down that position. They want to give someone 30 or more minutes per night. And those are the teams, like lottery teams, that are willing to give younger, unproven players the benefit of the doubt. Because, dear reader, they're as sick of the uncertainty as you are.

Think of the shooting guard slot in Minnesota. Minnesota has lacked a shooting guard with elite upside ever since J.R. Rider was traded to Portland. In 1996.

Why is the recently vacated starting point guard spot in Boston so unappealing for fantasy owners? Because Rajon Rondo owned that lineup spot. Boston had no impetus to go after a young point guard -- heck, any point guard -- to back him up. There's an opportunity there, I suppose, for an Avery Bradley or Courtney Lee, but there's no heir apparent to Rondo, no line of succession

3. Said team must stock young talent without an established ceiling

This is related to item No. 2. When Lou Williams went down in Atlanta, it wasn't as if the Hawks had Bradley Beal waiting in wings. They had Kyle Korver. They only had Korver because over the past few seasons, they've been a dependable playoff team.

4. (Bonus) This isn't necessary, but some trade rumors would be nice

You know whom my favorite GM is right now? Bryan Colangelo, because he's got some lottery-level young upside and an urge to blow up a chunk of his roster. That's a potent combination, which could spell fantasy opportunity down the road for multiple teams. Maybe Andrea Bargnani leaves. Maybe Ed Davis leaves. Maybe Jose Calderon leaves. Maybe all three leave.

Another team that would become a heck of a lot more interesting with one or two trades? The Sacramento/Seattle Kings/SuperSonics. Perennial lottery team.

Take a look at Thomas Robinson. A high-motor power forward who was rumored to go as high as No. 2 overall in last year's draft. He's been inconsistent, but still averages a double-double with a steal and a block … per-36 minutes. In reality, Robinson is stuck behind Jason Thompson, averages 15.7 minutes a night and his Basketball Reference page is sponsored by Widget the Jayhawk Dog.

5. (Super Bad Karma bonus) As much as I hate to say it, look for time-shares where one player has a rich, detailed injury history

I never, ever try to plan around another player getting injured because there's zero roto honor in the exercise, but an injury history is always something to consider.

So with all this mind, let's take a look at a few lineup spots that could bear fruit in the near future.

1. Shooting Guard, Minnesota Timberwolves

Current Starter: Luke Ridnour
Primary Backups: Alexey Shved, Jose Juan Barea

Remember Wesley Johnson? Remember Wayne Ellington? You have to remember Brandon Roy, that was only a couple of months ago.

Luke Ridnour has been one of fantasy's most underappreciated combo guards of the past few seasons, but he's not going to turn any statistical heads.

The real potential here lies with Alexey Shved.

He possesses the size and range that provides for a good fantasy makeup. He can provide assists and rebounds and the occasional steal. Shved's issue is his shooting.

He's shooting only 38 percent from the field and posts a middling True Shooting Percentage of 49.8%. Simply put, he needs to become more efficient (12.17 PER) if he's going to translate his opportunity for minutes into real production, he has to hit more shots and cut down on turnovers.

This is also a spot where a trade could help matters. Minnesota is willing to deal Derrick Williams, and maybe he gets flipped for another shooting guard.

2. Power Forward/Center, Detroit Pistons

Current Starter: Jason Maxiell
Primary Backups: Charlie Villanueva, Andre Drummond

Who's going to get to partner up with Greg Monroe? Over the past couple of seasons, Detroit has flailed at that answer with a depressing mix of Jason Maxiell, Charlie Villanueva and the occasional dose of Jonas Jerebko.

Maxiell is what he is; a high-motor player who'd slot in nicely into the back end of a rotation for a contending team. Charlie Villanueva used to be intriguing for a couple of seasons (especially his last one in Milwaukee) because of his ability to hit the 3-point shot.

Enter Andre Drummond. As soon as he slid to the Pistons in last year's draft, he shot to the top of my rookies-to-watch list. Because he matches the perfect mix of skills, size and upside to the perfect lineup situation. As soon as the Pistons slide out of contention for the eighth spot (which might be a while post-Rondo injury), Drummond is going to command at least 23-28 minutes a night.

As opposed to Shved, Drummond already has evidenced sky-high efficiency (22.35 PER, and he's 19). He's got top-40 fantasy potential and is in a good position to earn consistent minutes sooner than later. Consistent, night-in, night-out minutes are what young players need to establish a rhythm … both in their on-court play and in their box scores.

3. Shooting Guard, Cleveland Cavaliers

Current Starter: Dion Waiters (as of this writing)
Primary Backups: C.J. Miles, Wayne Ellington

Cleveland is a hotbed of young fantasy upside. It took an unfortunate injury up front to show what Tristan Thompson and Tyler Zeller are capable of. Small forward minutes are there for the taking, but Cleveland lacks elite potential at that position. Point guard is obviously occupied. Which leaves the 2-guard spot.

As an Orange alum (I'm also a Trojan alum, but people who glom onto their grad school teams are, in my opinion, dirty carpetbaggers), I've seen a ton of Waiters over the past couple of years. And I've become obsessed with finding what he could do when finally presented with an everyday starting role … because he hasn't had one since high school.

It's a very similar situation to Drummond's. The explosive athleticism is there. The minutes are there. His team is tanking. His road blocks have more to with maturity. He could easily be a 20-point scorer. And not just empty points; Waiters has already shown he can dish while hitting 3s and grabbing steals. It's just a question of minutes and consistency.

Waiters' development should be a paramount concern for the Cavaliers during the second half of the season, especially when you consider what they gave up to get him. If he's available in your league, he's worth a flier, because I think he's close to becoming a full-time player.

4. Power Forward, Houston Rockets

Current Starter: Patrick Patterson
Primary Backup: Marcus Morris

Patterson's got the inside track in Houston. I like Morris better from a fantasy perspective. But in reality, I don't like either of them.

Patterson's got more of a classic power forward's makeup, but he's a poor rebounder and anemic shot-blocker. He's more of a poor man's Carl Landry, a power forward who needs to score to provide real fantasy value. Morris has many of the same issues, but he's more intriguing because he can hit the 3. But the likelihood is that neither player will ever develop into a fantasy starter.

The potential in Houston lies in a future trade.

They've got a general manager who is the hero to numerical shut-ins the world over. And said general manager is ahead of schedule in his current rebuild. Houston's fertile fantasy territory because of its high-pace style of play. Think of what Tiago Splitter would do in the Rockets' 4 spot; I guarantee you Daryl Morey has.

My point is that Morey's not done dealing, and power forward is the obvious area that needs improvement. Look for this lineup slot to percolate around the trade deadline.

5. Small Forward, New Orleans Pelicans

Current Starter: Al-Farouq Aminu
Primary Backup: The Field

(I just typed that for the first time, and I gotta tell you, it didn't go as badly as I'd feared.)

I'll tell you the real reason I've been following this spot; I sat next to Al-Farouq Aminu on a plane once, while he was still in college. He seemed like a nice young man, and as a result I've sort of been tracking him ever since.

Aminu's obvious issue, even then, was size. At that point, I probably weighed as much as he did, and I am a Lombardi-esque 5-foot-9. Aminu didn't look like a power forward, or someone who would ever be a power forward. So with his athleticism and plus intangibles, the question was going to be whether or not he could produce as a small forward at the NBA level.

Then Aminu surprised me; he starting jacking up 3s in his rookie season. Didn't make a lot of them (32 percent went in), but his willingness to stretch his game showed me some fantasy potential. If he could develop an outside shot to go with his rangy rebounding and defensive prowess, he could have the makings of a special fantasy player.

After he got traded to New Orleans, he seemed like an afterthought in the deal. But Aminu has started to come on this season. The irony is that his ascent occurred as soon as he gave up on 3-pointers. In his rookie season, he hoisted 143 3-point attempts. This season, with expanded minutes, he'll be lucky to crack 50.

My point is that Aminu has shown he can adjust his game to the situation. New Orleans has Ryan Anderson. They don't need another tweener who can hit 3s. They have the best one of those in the entire NBA. So Aminu has evolved into an energy guy who can get you a double-double with a couple of steals and an occasional block. And he still hasn't hit his ceiling.

HacheMan · Jan 29, 2013

Andrew Bogut makes surprising return

By Tom Carpenter, ESPN.com

Golden State Warriors fans unexpectedly got a brief glimpse of the future of their franchise Monday night, as Andrew Bogut came out of nowhere to start alongside Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes and David Lee against the Toronto Raptors. That was the lineup fans had been dreaming about all season while Bogut was out recovering from ankle surgery, but it was short-lived, as Curry turned his right ankle for the umpteenth time in the third quarter and did not return. Here are a few things we can glean from Monday's action:
1. What the & ?!? Bogut's back? He talked to reporters in his old Milwaukee stomping grounds Saturday and left the impression that he was still a month or more away. Let's not look a gift horse in the mouth, though; Bogut had 12 points (6-of-8 FG), 8 boards, 2 assists and 4 blocks and should only improve on those digits if he stays healthy. The catch is that he is not expected to play back-to-back games (he'll rest Tuesday night against the Cleveland Cavaliers) and is expected to have a minutes restriction (23 minutes Monday) at least until the All-Star break. Then again, he was expected to be out a month more, too, so who knows?
2. Curry said the ankle turn was just a tweak, but we should consider him iffy, at best, for Tuesday. As usual, Jarrett Jack is the best handcuff option in fantasy hoops, so you must own Jack if you own Curry.
3. Curry and Bogut are two of the more injury-prone ballers in the game, so you should trade them as soon as they post a big line or two and you can find a trade partner willing to take a chance.
4. This last one is the kind of thing you need to tuck away inside your brain for future reference: We can't trust anything the Warriors say about their injured players, because they are about as forthcoming in that regard as New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. They never mentioned that Bogut had microfracture surgery on his ankle, and then they led us to believe he was out another month before letting him play two days later. Don't forget this down the road when trying to assess timelines for injured Warriors players.

[h=4]MONDAY, JAN. 28[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Marc Gasol, Grizzlies: 27 points (10-15 FG, 6-6 FT), 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks versus 76ers
Paul George, Pacers: 23 points (9-17 FG), 4 3s, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals against Nuggets
Joakim Noah, Bulls: 13 points, 18 rebounds, 7 assists, 5 blocks versus Bobcats
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Tony Allen, Grizzlies: 5 points (2-6 FG), 3 rebounds, 4 turnovers against 76ers
Alan Anderson, Raptors: 11 points (2-11 FG), 4 rebounds, 2 assists versus Warriors
Randy Foye, Jazz: 12 points (5-13 FG), 0 rebounds, 2 assists against Rockets

[h=3]Looking Back[/h]• Luol Deng returned to action Monday after a five-game absence due to a strained hamstring. He had a mediocre night, scoring just 12 points (3-of-8 FG) with 2 3s, 4 boards and 3 dimes, but his production should quickly get back up to speed. Of more interest is that Jimmy Butler, who was hot starting in place of Deng, stayed hot with 19 points (7-of-10 FG), 6 boards and 2 assists. Perhaps he can maintain some value as a reserve going forward.
• Hedo Turkoglu returned from his hand injury Monday, although you'd barely know it from the box score: 4 points (2-of-5 FG) and literally no other stats besides a turnover in almost 12 minutes of action. On just about any other team, it wouldn't even be worth mentioning him, but the Magic are so light on talent that Turkoglu could have brief stretches of success in the second half of the season if things click for him.
• As I suspected, Mike Conley's sprained ankle kept him out Monday, and it's not clear when he'll be back. Jerryd Bayless started in place of Conley and shined with 21 points (8-of-15 FG), 5 boards, 9 assists and 2 turnovers. He was one of my favorite sleepers when he was with the Raptors, but the deep Memphis Grizzlies roster has left Bayless an afterthought this season. Bayless has scored in double digits each of the past four games, though, something he had done just three times all season and hadn't done since November. He's a solid play until Conley returns, and maybe he can carve out a big enough role going forward to help in deep leagues.
[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]• It's not clear when Gordon Hayward will return from the shoulder sprain that kept him out of Monday's game. I'm guessing he probably will skip Wednesday's battle with the New Orleans Hornets in the hopes that he'll be ready this weekend when the Utah Jazz take on the Portland Trail Blazers in a home-and-home series Friday and Saturday.
• Bradley Beal has hit a rough patch, as he's combined for just 10 points (4-of-16 FG) in his past two games. He admitted that his right wrist has been bothering him, which may explain the struggles. Time will tell whether he can work his way through it, but don't be surprised if the Washington Wizards sit him down for a couple of games to rest the joint.
• Detroit Pistons coach Lawrence Frank wouldn't say why Rodney Stuckey was inactive for Sunday's game or whether the guard would be in the lineup Tuesday against the Bucks. With Stuckey out Sunday, Brandon Knight went off for 31 points but failed to tally a dime. Frank noted how "very, very vague" the definition of "point guard" is these days when discussing Knight, but Sunday's stat line lends credence to the notion that Knight is really a scorer and not a dimer at heart. On the season, he is averaging just 4.3 apg.
• Since we started this blog discussing injured Warriors, let's wrap up the recap of Monday night's games by discussing one more: Harrison Barnes injured his left calf on a late-game dunk. He will have it examined Tuesday & and we will take any information the Warriors pass on to us with a lot of skepticism.
[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]With a full slate of games Wednesday evening, there are a slew of high-end options from which to choose in Fastbreak. At center, I see a tough call to make between Dwight Howard and Joakim Noah. D12 has a delectable matchup against the overmatched Phoenix Suns. I think it's almost impossible for him not to come up big, but his production from game to game has been sporadic lately. Noah, on the other hand, has been on fire (35, 34 and 28 Fastbreak points in his past three games), but that has come against very weak defenses (CHA, WAS, GS). Still, I think he can dominate Wednesday's opponent, the Bucks, just as easily, so I give him the edge over Howard.

HacheMan · Jan 30, 2013

[h=1]Category helpers going forward[/h][h=3]Randy Foye, Tony Allen, Kenneth Faried can provide a boost[/h]By Seth Landman | Special to ESPN.com

We're reaching the point in the season where you have to address the holes on your roster before it's too late to make up ground. With more than half the season behind you, you should be well aware of the strengths and weaknesses of your particular roster, and that means you can deal from strengths to cover up weaknesses.

Sometimes, this means pursuing flawed players simply because of their ability to help you in one area. We'll look at a few such players here, organized by the category in which they can help. These are all players who should either be available via the waiver wire or by trade, and we'll focus only on the counting stats, and not the percentages. We'll start with 3-pointers, where there are two players you might want to target in the coming weeks.

(Ranking in category, based on per-game stats, in parentheses)

[h=3]3-pointers

Randy Foye, PG/SG, Utah Jazz (11): Foye's 2.2 3s per game aren't without their fringe benefits. He shoots a good percentage from the line, and making a lot of 3s means he's not totally worthless as a scorer. Additionally, because so many of his field goal attempts are 3s, he makes the most out of each attempt. His 42 percent shooting from the floor hurts your team, but it doesn't hurt as much as Brandon Knight's 42 percent shooting, simply because Foye takes fewer shots. Ideally, someone like Foye, who finishes well at the rim and makes a lot of 3s, would give up the midrange game entirely, but that's probably not realistic. As it stands, he's a player who is available in most leagues, and can absolutely help you gain ground in 3s.

Joe Johnson, SG/SF, Brooklyn Nets (17): Johnson has been a major underachiever this season, at least based on his past performance, so he's a player who could probably be had at a discount if you're willing to trade for him. Despite some obvious decline in his game overall, he's on pace to make the most 3s he's made in a season since he was playing alongside Steve Nash in Phoenix. He's still a decent contributor in assists, who also makes his free throws, too. Ultimately, while there's no chance that he's going to match his top-50 average draft position this season, he should probably be a little better than he's been so far, and if that happens, he's definitely worth trading for if you could use a bump from long range.
[/h][h=3]Steals[/h][h=3]
Tony Allen, SG, Memphis Grizzlies (17): In all the trade talk surrounding Rudy Gay, there has been very little mention of Allen. On a certain level, that's because the Grizzlies understand how important Allen is to their style of play. Allen wreaks havoc on defense, but he's not anyone's idea of a floor spacer. His 1.6 steals per game (in just 27.0 minutes) is a constant, but he ends up getting added and dropped all the time in fantasy leagues. Right now, he's mostly available, but that's in large part because he hasn't been scoring much. Really though, January has been his most productive month so far this season, and if Gay gets traded, it could mean even more playing time. If you need steals, he really needs to be on your roster.
[/h][h=3]Blocks

Bismack Biyombo, PF/C, Charlotte Bobcats (13): Biyombo's 1.7 blocks are impressive, and the 7.0 rebounds he grabs per game don't hurt, either. However, his overall contribution is, amazingly, a negative: he doesn't get steals, he doesn't get assists, he can't shoot from the floor, and he can't shoot from the line. For a guy who runs 6-foot-9 and 245 pounds, Biyombo doesn't even shoot a high percentage at the rim. So far this season, he's shooting a worse percentage on shots at the rim than point guards like D.J. Augustin and Avery Bradley. If you're solid in the percentages, though, perhaps you can stomach having him on your team, which could be worthwhile if you could benefit by gaining ground in blocks.
[/h][h=3]Assists[/h][h=3]
Jamaal Tinsley, PG, Utah Jazz (32): There aren't a ton of players who can really help you in assists and are also available just to pick up in standard fantasy leagues. Guys who get assists usually do other things well -- shoot 3s and get steals, specifically -- that are of value in fantasy. Tinsley has no such problem. Sure, he'll throw in a steal or so per game, but he doesn't make 3s, and actually, he barely scores at all. What he does do is get lots of assists, and with Mo Williams still out indefinitely, Tinsley is going to keep racking up assists until the Jazz make a trade to get a better point guard. If you can afford to have Tinsley on your roster, he's definitely the cheapest source of five-or-so assists per game you can find out there.
[/h][h=3]Rebounds

Kenneth Faried, PF, Denver Nuggets (14): Like Joe Johnson, Faried was supposed to be better than he's been this season. He has been a bit exposed on the offensive end, as his per-minute scoring has taken a hit from where it was during his rookie season, but he's still averaging better than 13 rebounds per 40 minutes. That's the category in which he made a name for himself in college at Morehead State, and that's the category in which he's an elite contributor in the NBA. He still has some upside, so it could take some doing to pry him away from someone else in a trade, but given how much worse he's been than the preseason expectations, perhaps you can get him for fair value. You'd like to see him block more shots and make more free throws, but it's hard to argue with 9.7 boards per game.
[/h][h=3]Points[/h][h=3]
DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF, Toronto Raptors (26): There aren't many players for whom scoring is their best category in fantasy. Great scorers tend to get there in ways that make them great across the board. Kevin Durant's best category is actually free throw shooting, and LeBron's is actually field goal percentage. Guys like Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony and Kyrie Irving all boast scoring as their best category, but they're elite in so many other areas that it would be difficult to acquire them at this stage of the season. DeRozan, however, is a special case in that his game is almost entirely without fantasy value save the 17-or-so points he scores every night. Yes, his free throws have been better this season, but it's scoring where he accumulates most of his marginal overall value. If you can deal away someone who is a little more well-rounded but a little less trigger-happy -- maybe someone like Wesley Matthews, for instance -- you'd lose a little value overall, but you might be able to help yourself in this particular category.

[/h]

HacheMan · Jan 30, 2013

[h=1]Specific team positions with value[/h][h=3]Wolves, Cavs 2-guard, Pistons power forward/center spots have great potential[/h]By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com
I have a tendency to fixate. One fixation I've allowed to develop has been a sort of positional radar.
What I mean by this is that over the course of an NBA season -- or sometimes several seasons -- I begin to pay extra attention to certain roles on certain teams.
Power forward in Milwaukee. Small forward in Cleveland (post LeBron). Not because the players occupying these roles are dominant fantasy players, or even serviceable ones. I pay attention to them because they are specific positions that could develop into a 28-32-minutes-per-game role for a young player with high fantasy upside.
Those are the spots that can, with patience, pay out big late-season dividends.
Here are the conditions that must exist for a specific position to land on my radar:

1. The team is lottery bound
An established playoff team is going to be less likely to give starter's minutes to unproven players. Look at how long it's taken Tiago Splitter to play his way onto the fantasy radar in San Antonio. I guarantee you that if he had been drafted by, say, Charlotte, he'd have been averaging 15 and 9 for the entire season, and not just over his past five games.
2. The team must have a certain position that has not been held down by an established player for multiple seasons
Does a team feature one or more time-shares? Have they drafted multiple saviors, acquired numerous long-term solutions to anchor a certain role & only to have that savior flame out within the confines of his rookie season?
That's what you want, because those teams are dying to have someone come in and lock down that position. They want to give someone 30 or more minutes per night. And those are the teams, like lottery teams, that are willing to give younger, unproven players the benefit of the doubt. Because, dear reader, they're as sick of the uncertainty as you are.
Think of the shooting guard slot in Minnesota. Minnesota has lacked a shooting guard with elite upside ever since J.R. Rider was traded to Portland. In 1996.
Why is the recently vacated starting point guard spot in Boston so unappealing for fantasy owners? Because Rajon Rondo owned that lineup spot. Boston had no impetus to go after a young point guard -- heck, any point guard -- to back him up. There's an opportunity there, I suppose, for an Avery Bradley or Courtney Lee, but there's no heir apparent to Rondo, no line of succession.
3. Said team must stock young talent without an established ceiling
This is related to item No. 2. When Lou Williams went down in Atlanta, it wasn't as if the Hawks had Bradley Beal waiting in wings. They had Kyle Korver. They only had Korver because over the past few seasons, they've been a dependable playoff team.
4. (Bonus) This isn't necessary, but some trade rumors would be nice
You know whom my favorite GM is right now? Bryan Colangelo of the Toronto Raptors, because he's got some lottery-level young upside and an urge to blow up a chunk of his roster. That's a potent combination, which could spell fantasy opportunity down the road for multiple teams. Maybe Andrea Bargnani leaves. Maybe Ed Davis leaves. Maybe Jose Calderon leaves. Maybe all three leave.
Another team that would become a heck of a lot more interesting with one or two trades? The Sacramento/Seattle Kings/SuperSonics. Perennial lottery team.
Take a look at Thomas Robinson. A high-motor power forward who was rumored to go as high as No. 2 overall in last year's draft. He's been inconsistent, but still averages a double-double with a steal and a block & per-36 minutes. In reality, Robinson is stuck behind Jason Thompson, averages 15.7 minutes a night and his Basketball Reference page is sponsored by Widget the Jayhawk Dog.
5. (Super Bad Karma bonus) As much as I hate to say it, look for time-shares where one player has a rich, detailed injury history
I never, ever try to plan around another player getting injured because there's zero roto honor in the exercise, but an injury history is always something to consider.
So with all this mind, let's take a look at a few lineup spots that could bear fruit in the near future.

1. Shooting Guard, Minnesota Timberwolves
Current Starter: Luke Ridnour
Primary Backups: Alexey Shved, Jose Juan Barea
Remember Wesley Johnson? Remember Wayne Ellington? You have to remember Brandon Roy, that was only a couple of months ago.
Ridnour has been one of fantasy's most underappreciated combo guards of the past few seasons, but he's not going to turn any statistical heads.
The real potential here lies with Shved.
He possesses the size and range that provides for a good fantasy makeup. He can provide assists and rebounds and the occasional steal. Shved's issue is his shooting.
He's shooting only 38 percent from the field and posts a middling true shooting percentage of 49.8%. Simply put, he needs to become more efficient (12.17 player efficiency rating) if he's going to translate his opportunity for minutes into real production, he has to hit more shots and cut down on turnovers.
This is also a spot where a trade could help matters. Minnesota is willing to deal Derrick Williams, and maybe he gets flipped for another shooting guard.
2. Power Forward/Center, Detroit Pistons
Current Starter: Jason Maxiell
Primary Backups: Charlie Villanueva, Andre Drummond
Who's going to get to partner up with Greg Monroe? Over the past couple of seasons, Detroit has flailed at that answer with a depressing mix of Maxiell, Villanueva and the occasional dose of Jonas Jerebko.
Maxiell is what he is; a high-motor player who'd slot in nicely into the back end of a rotation for a contending team. Villanueva used to be intriguing for a couple of seasons (especially his last one in Milwaukee) because of his ability to hit the 3-point shot.
Enter Drummond. As soon as he slid to the Pistons in last year's draft, he shot to the top of my rookies-to-watch list. Because he matches the perfect mix of skills, size and upside to the perfect lineup situation. As soon as the Pistons slide out of contention for the eighth spot (which might be a while post-Rondo injury), Drummond is going to command at least 23-28 minutes a night.
As opposed to Shved, Drummond already has evidenced sky-high efficiency (22.35 PER, and he's 19). He's got top-40 fantasy potential and is in a good position to earn consistent minutes sooner than later. Consistent, night-in, night-out minutes are what young players need to establish a rhythm & both in their on-court play and in their box scores.
3. Shooting Guard, Cleveland Cavaliers
Current Starter: Dion Waiters (as of this writing)
Primary Backups: C.J. Miles, Wayne Ellington

Cleveland is a hotbed of young fantasy upside. It took an unfortunate injury up front to show what Tristan Thompson and Tyler Zeller are capable of. Small forward minutes are there for the taking, but Cleveland lacks elite potential at that position. Point guard is obviously occupied. Which leaves the 2-guard spot.
As an Orange alum (I'm also a Trojan alum, but people who glom onto their grad school teams are, in my opinion, dirty carpetbaggers), I've seen a ton of Waiters over the past couple of years. And I've become obsessed with finding what he could do when finally presented with an everyday starting role & because he hasn't had one since high school.
It's a very similar situation to Drummond's. The explosive athleticism is there. The minutes are there. His team is tanking. His road blocks have more to with maturity. He could easily be a 20-point scorer. And not just empty points; Waiters has already shown he can dish while hitting 3s and grabbing steals. It's just a question of minutes and consistency.
Waiters' development should be a paramount concern for the Cavaliers during the second half of the season, especially when you consider what they gave up to get him. If he's available in your league, he's worth a flier, because I think he's close to becoming a full-time player.
4. Power Forward, Houston Rockets
Current Starter: Patrick Patterson
Primary Backup: Marcus Morris
Patterson's got the inside track in Houston. I like Morris better from a fantasy perspective. But in reality, I don't like either of them.
Patterson's got more of a classic power forward's makeup, but he's a poor rebounder and anemic shot-blocker. He's more of a poor man's Carl Landry, a power forward who needs to score to provide real fantasy value. Morris has many of the same issues, but he's more intriguing because he can hit the 3. But the likelihood is that neither player will ever develop into a fantasy starter.
The potential in Houston lies in a future trade.
They've got a general manager who is the hero to numerical shut-ins the world over. And said general manager is ahead of schedule in his current rebuild. Houston's fertile fantasy territory because of its high-pace style of play. Think of what Splitter would do in the Rockets' 4-spot; I guarantee you general manager Daryl Morey has.
My point is that Morey's not done dealing, and power forward is the obvious area that needs improvement. Look for this lineup slot to percolate around the trade deadline.
5. Small Forward, New Orleans Pelicans
Current Starter: Al-Farouq Aminu
Primary Backup: The Field
(I just typed New Orleans Pelicans for the first time, and I gotta tell you, it didn't go as badly as I'd feared.)
I'll tell you the real reason I've been following this spot; I sat next to Aminu on a plane once, while he was still in college. He seemed like a nice young man, and as a result I've sort of been tracking him ever since.
Aminu's obvious issue, even then, was size. At that point, I probably weighed as much as he did, and I am a Lombardi-esque 5-foot-9. Aminu didn't look like a power forward, or someone who would ever be a power forward. So with his athleticism and plus intangibles, the question was going to be whether or not he could produce as a small forward at the NBA level.
Then Aminu surprised me; he starting jacking up 3s in his rookie season. Didn't make a lot of them (32 percent went in), but his willingness to stretch his game showed me some fantasy potential. If he could develop an outside shot to go with his rangy rebounding and defensive prowess, he could have the makings of a special fantasy player.
After he got traded to New Orleans, he seemed like an afterthought in the deal. But Aminu has started to come on this season. The irony is that his ascent occurred as soon as he gave up on 3-pointers. In his rookie season, he hoisted 143 3-point attempts. This season, with expanded minutes, he'll be lucky to crack 50.
My point is that Aminu has shown he can adjust his game to the situation. New Orleans has Ryan Anderson. They don't need another tweener who can hit 3s. They have the best one of those in the entire NBA. So Aminu has evolved into an energy guy who can get you a double-double with a couple of steals and an occasional block. And he still hasn't hit his ceiling.

HacheMan · Jan 31, 2013

Help in assists, points, blocks

By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

As we continue examining players whose primary contributions come in specific categories, it's important to assess how to analyze team needs and the impact that new additions will have upon your roster. If you're behind in a category, it's crucial to assess whether adding a one-category wonder is worth the hit you'll take in other areas. If you're substantially behind in blocks, but entrenched in heated races in other categories, for example, adding a blocks specialist might not be as beneficial as adding somebody with above-average block totals (say, 0.8 per game) who contributes elsewhere. Or, a player with strong percentages and low turnovers who averages three assists per game might be more valuable to you than a five-assist player in a nine-category roto league in which you're last in assists but can't afford to sacrifice percentages and turnovers.

A helpful way to understand the impact of player contributions in specific categories is by comprehending what the average player in your league produces in each area. To do this, your league's "players" page is a valuable tool. Here's how:

Click "Players" on your league page. Then click "On Rosters" under "availability," click "All."

Sort by the specific category and find the player in the middle. For 10-team, 13-man roster leagues, this is the 65th-ranked player on a roster in a specific category. This number will provide your league's median production in the category, and an idea about the type of impact future additions will have compared to your league standards.

Here is the average median statistical contribution of several leagues in which I participate, both roto and head-to-head formats. This is just a baseline. To get an accurate idea of your statistical averages, you must do this for your own league. The numbers will fluctuate based upon the league's competitiveness and settings.

Category 10-Team Leagues 12-Team Leagues
Points 14 3/5 14.1
Rebounds 5 5/7 5.4
Assists 2 8/9 2.7
3-Pointers 1 1/5 1.1
Blocks 1/2 0.5
Steals 1 1/9 1
Field Goal Percentage 46 8/9 46.9
Free Throw Percentage 79 4/5 79.6
Turnovers 1 4/5 1.8

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>

Here are some widely available options for specific categories that can help make up for your team's areas of deficiency:

[h=3]Assists[/h]

Bayless

Jerryd Bayless, PG/SG, Memphis Grizzlies (24.6 percent owned): Many expected Bayless to be one of the best backup point guards in the league, in a fantasy sense, because of his potent offensive game and his ability to play on or off the ball. But while his ability to score fits in nicely with what Memphis needs from a backup at both guard slots, his historically middling defense doesn't jell with what the Grizzlies typically look for in their players. He's adjusting well, though, and earning more playing time, which will result in a nice combination of assists, 3s, steals and points. He's playing 22.4 minutes per game in January, compared to 16.6 in December. Additionally, Bayless has posted six or more assists four times this month after doing it twice previously this season, and he has at least five dimes in four of his past five games. He's scored in double figures in four straight games after doing so three times previously this season. Things are looking up for Bayless, who has talent and opportunity and seems to finally be adjusting to his new digs.

Barbosa

Leandro Barbosa, SG, Boston Celtics (0.4 percent owned): "Who replaces Rondo in Boston?" was among the most common utterances this weekend, and for good reason. The problem is that there isn't a clear answer because there isn't another true point guard on Boston's roster. Unfortunately, four combo guards doesn't equal one point guard, so assists and offensive production should be spread among Avery Bradley, Jason Terry, Courtney Lee and Leandro Barbosa. I see Terry having the most overall value, especially if he can get the pick-and-pop game clicking with Kevin Garnett. But among the rest, Barbosa's 5.1 assists per-48 minutes dwarfs Lee's 2.9 and Bradley's paltry 1.8. Barbosa has been a spark plug for the Celtics and distributes effectively, with his assist rate of 18.74 (rate of assists against possessions used) the highest mark since his rookie season, according to hoopdata.com. With a bump in minutes, Barbosa could viably average 11 to 14 points, 3 to 4 assists and about 1.5 3-pointers per game, numbers worth a roster spot in most formats.

[h=3]Blocks[/h]

Gibson

Taj Gibson, PF/C, Chicago Bulls (1.4 percent owned): Anytime I've highlighted blocks options over the past several years, Gibson has always been there, as he's consistently one of the best shot-blockers in the league on a per-minute basis. Despite his long-term contract with the Bulls and his importance to the team (his +2.7 plus/minus ranks third on the team), he simply doesn't get as many minutes as he deserves with Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah around. His 3.14 blocks per-48 minutes this season rank 15th in the league, and his 1.9 blocks per game in January rank 13th overall. Boozer missed Wednesday's contest and is day-to-day with a hamstring injury, which could bode well for Gibson's value, as he scored 14 points with nine rebounds and three blocks in 34 minutes with Boozer on the bench. Both Boozer and his hamstrings are notoriously fickle when it comes to injuries, so feel free to add Gibson now if you want dependable swats with injury-based upside.

Haywood

Brendan Haywood, C, Charlotte Bobcats (0.1 percent owned): Despite his age and low ceiling, Haywood is a legitimate defensive backup center, and he has benefited from Byron Mullens' absence, averaging 20.4 minutes per game with 1.6 blocks, 4.3 rebounds and 0.6 steals per game over the past 30 days. Only 16 players have 1.6 or more blocks per game in that span, so despite his shortcomings elsewhere, Haywood would be the second-best shot-blocker on most fantasy teams. He's an example of a player worth adding only if you can afford a one-category helper. If you can deal with his lack of production elsewhere, he's a reliable source of swats.

Johnson

James Johnson, SF/PF, Sacramento Kings (0.1 percent owned): Johnson possesses a special blend of toughness and athleticism, with the ability to effectively defend the 3 or 4, making him valuable to a Kings roster riddled with defensive issues. But much like Gibson, Johnson's lack of minutes is problematic. He flashes a dazzling fantasy skill set and provides added value with his ability to accrue blocks from the small forward position. Among small forward-eligible players, he ranks second in the league with 1.3 blocks per game over the past 30 days, behind only Josh Smith. The fact that those 1.3 blocks come in just 15.7 minutes per game is both frustrating and tantalizing, as it's wild to imagine the type of stats he'd put up with 30-plus minutes per game on a nightly basis. The only stat you can consistently depend on from Johnson is blocks, although they come from an atypical position for that category if you start him at small forward. Like Gibson, however, there's substantial overall upside here if he's able to get more PT, so if you want a potential lottery ticket down the stretch and desperately need blocks now, Johnson is an intriguing option.

[h=3]Points[/h]

Beasley

Michael Beasley, SF/PF, Phoenix Suns (26.7 percent owned): Beasley is one of my least favorite fantasy players of the past decade, due to the fact that he can't consistently provide value in any category other than scoring. On top of that, his advanced statistics have declined across the board this season, as he's posting worse numbers in true shooting percentage, player efficiency rating, total rebounding rate and field goal percentage in every area on the court from the rim to the 3-point line. But despite his flaws, Beasley gets buckets and has played well under coach Lindsey Hunter, averaging 18.2 points on 53.4 percent shooting since the coaching change. If all you need is points, Beasley is one of the only widely available players who could conceivably average 20 per game going forward, so if you can stomach the rest of his stats, he's an option for those in search of scoring.

Young

Nick Young, SG, Philadelphia 76ers (8.2 percent owned): Young lacks a well-rounded fantasy game, as he's a nonefficient scorer capable of providing points and 3s but not much else. But points are tricky to find on the waiver wire: Of the 107 players averaging at least 12.1 points per game over the past 30 days, Young is the only one owned in fewer than 10 percent of leagues, and one of four owned in fewer than 50 percent of leagues (the others are Alan Anderson, Randy Foye and J.J. Barea, all valid options if you need points). Young is benefiting from Jason Richardson's injury, averaging 16.6 points with 2.2 3s over the past five games. Young's short-term value has increased, and that should translate into a bump in his long-term value as well, as this productive stretch should earn him more run when Richardson returns. Young's defensive ability is lopsided -- he's effective in isolation and poor with regards to team defense -- but he's not as bad overall as his reputation dictates, and he should be able to consistently provide double-digit scoring with healthy 3-point totals for teams in need of a scoring punch.

HacheMan · Jan 31, 2013

[h=3]Rudy Gay's value improves in Toronto[/h]By Seth Landman, Special to ESPN.com
In case you weren't paying attention, the rumors swirling around Rudy Gay finally came to fruition. Gay went to the Toronto Raptors in a three-team deal in which the Raptors also received Hamed Haddadi from the Grizzlies. The Memphis Grizzlies received Ed Davis from the Raptors and Tayshaun Prince and Austin Daye from the Pistons, who picked up Jose Calderon and his expiring contract.

Gay has been a disappointment this season, but he should have a larger role in the Raptors offense than he's had this season with the Grizzlies. Unfortunately, Gay hasn't been very efficient this season, working on career lows in both field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. This trade makes him a bit more valuable, but I don't see him returning to his former top-25 status in fantasy leagues any time soon.

Prince isn't really an exciting fantasy option at this point, but the Grizzlies will need his production at the small forward spot, and it will be interesting to see whether he can parlay his 43.4 percent shooting on 3-pointers this season into a more than 0.5 made 3s per game. As for Davis, the minutes he was getting in Toronto filling in for Andrea Bargnani and Jonas Valanciunas in the frontcourt are going to be a lot more scarce playing behind Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph in Memphis.

The final piece to consider here is Calderon, who finds himself on a Pistons team with two point guards -- Rodney Stuckey and Brandon Knight -- already in the starting lineup. Calderon's having a nice season while playing just 28.3 minutes per game so far, but I'm skeptical that he'll play quite that much for a team that's not exactly in win-now mode. He probably loses a little value here when it's all said and done.

[h=4]WEDNESDAY, JAN. 30[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Al Horford, Hawks: 22 points (10-15 FG), 10 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 blocks versus Raptors
J.J. Redick, Magic: 29 points (9-14 FG, 7-7 FT), 4 3-pointers against Knicks
Nate Robinson, Bulls: 24 points (9-11 FG), 4 assists, 3 steals versus Bucks
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Brandon Knight, Pistons: 7 points (3-12 FG), 4 assists against Pacers
Evan Turner, 76ers: 6 points (3-11 FG), 4 rebounds, 3 assists versus Wizards
Deron Williams, Nets: 9 points (4-9 FG), 5 assists against Heat

[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• The Celtics are averaging 23.1 assists per game this season, and they had 22 playing without Rajon Rondo against the Kings on Wednesday night. That's obviously not a huge difference, and it could be a sign that there won't be any one player benefiting from Rondo's absence in fantasy leagues. Rather, the production will simply be spread out among the usual contributors. Jason Terry played just 22 minutes, but looked pretty good, scoring 12 points on 5-for-7 shooting to go along with four assists. Terry was still a good fantasy player as recently as last season, and the C's would use him if he was able to find that form right about now.

• Amir Johnson had a rough shooting night for the Raptors, but he played 39 minutes and had 14 rebounds and four blocks. Given that they just traded away Ed Davis while Bargnani and Valanciunas are still out, we could be seeing a lot more of those kinds of numbers in the coming weeks unless the Raptors decide to start playing Hamed Haddadi all kinds of major minutes. Johnson is an extremely productive player, and he could be on the verge of some monster fantasy numbers in the near future.

• Michael Beasley has been playing really well of late, and Wednesday night against the Lakers, he came off the bench to post 27 points on 12-for-20 shooting from the floor to go along with six rebounds and five steals. He played the second-most minutes (34) of anyone on the Suns, and led the team in plus/minus. Anyone who has followed Beasley knows this isn't a situation where he's about to become a consistently great player overnight, but he has an immense amount of talent, and if he ever does begin to leverage that talent into a prominent role, he's going to be really valuable in fantasy leagues. He's got the opportunity right now, and we'll see what he does with it.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• There are only two games Thursday, and the first is a matchup between the Thunder and a Grizzlies squad that has undergone some major tweaks. Still, even if Prince, Davis and Daye are ready to go, I don't think they'll be good options in fantasy leagues for now. Instead, you may want to look at playing Tony Allen. With Gay gone and Quincy Pondexter out of the lineup, Allen will have to do a lot of work on both ends against the Thunder.

• In the other game, the Warriors face the Mavericks with a roster that is pretty banged up at the moment. Andrew Bogut is doubtful with a sore ankle after his recent return, and Stephen Curry, Harrison Barnes and Carl Landry are all questionable. That means that in addition to Klay Thompson and David Lee, the Dubs will need a big night from Jarrett Jack if they're going to compete.

[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
It's easy to make arguments for either Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook, given that the Grizzlies' roster is in flux at the moment. So, I'll go with Marc Gasol. The Grizzlies are going to need stability tonight, and while Gasol wasn't great in his one meeting against the Thunder so far this season, he absolutely torched them last season, averaging 18.3 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks while shooting 55 percent from the floor.

HacheMan · Jan 31, 2013

Five under-the-radar players

Time to take notice of Jimmy Butler, Earl Clark and Nikola Vucevic

By Amin Elhassan | ESPN Insider

There's always an urge in the NBA to judge young players as though they were finished products, neglecting to take into account that there are factors that delay the realization of potential.

For some, it's because there's some development that needs to take place; for others, the team roster or style of play may not be a good fit. Steve Nash played barely 10 minutes a game his rookie year, as Kevin Johnson and Jason Kidd dominated playing time in the backcourt, and even the most optimistic Suns fan would not have envisioned the rarely used rookie from Santa Clara would one day be a two-time MVP.

It not only took a good deal of personal development on Nash's part, but also moving to an organization that believed in his talents and made available the playing time for him to prove himself.

Along those lines, here are five players who didn't play much earlier in their careers who are now getting a chance to showcase their talents and making the most of it.

[h=3]Jimmy Butler | Small forward | Chicago Bulls[/h]Career MPG coming into 2012-13: 8.5
2012-13 MPG: 20.7 | January MPG: 25.9

Coming out of Marquette, Butler was a high IQ, versatile wing with a defensive tenacity that made him a natural fit for Tom Thibodeau's Bulls. Still, he was stuck behind a crowded wing rotation of Ronnie Brewer, Luol Deng, Rip Hamilton and Kyle Korver. With the departures of Brewer and Korver, and injuries to Deng and Hamilton, Butler has had the opportunity to get minutes as a defensive stopper and energy guy, and as such has earned a spot in the rotation.
<offer>He's excellent at chasing opponents off screens ("locking and trailing") and closing out on shooters, and exhibits great awareness in off-the-ball defensive help situations. Offensively, while his efficiency from the perimeter still needs improvement, he is extremely efficient around the basket (field goal percentage at rim: 0.730) and does a great job crashing offensive boards (offensive rebound percentage: 8.0) and converting those opportunities (1.6 points per possession, one of the best marks in the league). Additionally, Butler does a good job of moving without the ball, making himself with weak to strongside cuts to the front of rims. Butler's next step is becoming a consistent perimeter shooter, particularly from the corner 3-point area.

[h=3]Earl Clark | Small forward | Los Angeles Lakers[/h]Career MPG coming into 2012-13: 10.1
2012-13 MPG: 17.3 | January MPG: 27.8

I was a part of the Suns' front office that drafted Clark, and worked very closely with him during his time in Phoenix, including late-night shooting sessions after every home game and during D-League assignments. The vision for Clark was he would be first and foremost a long, versatile defender, with the length and quickness necessary to guard the Kevin Durants and Dirk Nowitzkis of the world, and eventually his offense would catch up.

Unfortunately for Clark, a regime change between his rookie and sophomore year derailed any chance of him realizing his potential in Phoenix, but after some showing signs of development in Orlando, he's finally getting a chance in Los Angeles. He has brought versatility and athleticism to the Lakers' power forward position, with his ability to space the floor with his shooting (effective field goal percentage: 0.536) while still bringing energy to the floor and rebounding at a high level (offensive rebounding percentage 9.1; defensive rebounding percentage: 22.9).

Clark also has been able to exhibit his passing skills by putting the ball on the floor, penetrating and kicking to open teammates. But his true value has come on the defensive end, where his length and agility have allowed him to be the main defender on everyone from Durant to Eric Gordon. As his confidence grows with continued playing time, expect Clark to keep improving both defensively and in decision-making as he becomes more familiar with opponent tendencies in live game action.

[h=3]Larry Sanders | Center | Milwaukee Bucks[/h]Career MPG coming into 2012-13: 13.5
2012-13 MPG: 25.4 | January MPG: 26.0

The knock on Sanders coming out of VCU was that he was a bit of a "knucklehead," with an overinflated sense of self-worth and a suspect work ethic. Fortunately for Sanders, the Bucks were patient with his maturation process, and he is paying major dividends for them this season. Despite playing the equivalent of two quarters a game, Sanders leads the league in blocks per game (3.1) and is also the league leader in block percentage (8.9). His combination of "aircraft carrier" length, leaping ability and reaction time allow him to also be a force on the offensive and defensive glass (ORB: 11.3; DRB: 25.1).

Offensively, he flourishes in the pick-and-roll; again, his length and athleticism make him an easy target on hard rolls and lob plays. Sanders also is developing into being able to shallow roll for the short jumper, but still has major room for improvement, particularly in terms of shot selection.

He doesn't always exhibit the best feel on the court, but is able to make a large impact on the game with energy play and athleticism. If Sanders continues to play with a high motor and work on his game, he should be able to consistently hit the 15-foot jump shot as a counter to his rolls to the rim.

[h=3]Nikola Vucevic | Center | Orlando Magic[/h]Career MPG coming into 2012-13: 15.9
2012-13 MPG: 32.5 | January MPG: 36.6

One of the less heralded pieces of the Dwight Howard trade, Vucevic has quietly emerged as one of the most productive young centers in the league after not playing much in his rookie year in Philadelphia. He's an elite rebounder on both ends, checking at No. 6 in DRB (27.1) and No. 20 in ORB (12.2). He's one of only 10 players in the league averaging a double-double.

Offensively, he does a great job of setting solid screens and rolling hard to the basket, which not only creates scoring opportunities for himself, but also draws defensive attention, creating space for his teammates. He also can shallow roll to about 15 feet and knock down the midrange jumper. Despite rudimentary footwork in the post, he does a good job of getting deep seals, and can finish with either hand, over either shoulder. Defensively, he moves his feet well on the perimeter, and excels in pick-and-roll coverage and positional help defense. Vucevic needs to do a better job of using his size to fight opponents off the post, but is a plus defensive player overall, particularly with his ability to protect the defensive glass at an elite level.

[h=3]DeAndre Liggins | Shooting guard | Oklahoma City Thunder[/h]Career MPG coming into 2012-13: 6.8
2012-13 MPG: 7.9 | January MPG: 10.8

While Liggins hasn't played as much as the other players on this list, he recently has had the opportunity to showcase his abilities, including a five-game stretch in mid-January where he averaged 19.6 minutes per game and shot 0.500 from the field, including 5-of-7 from 3-point range. He's a tough-as-nails perimeter defensive athlete who is able to space the floor with his catch-and-shoot ability. He's not as good as his 62.5 3-point percentage would suggest, but he did shoot 39.1 from college distance in his last year at Kentucky. If Liggins can develop into a legitimate two-way role player, he'll be the perfect complement to the talent Oklahoma City already has assembled.
</offer>

HacheMan · Feb 3, 2013

Time to put a bow on Segment 1

Last week, I went into detail regarding which teams were set up with the best schedules leading up to the All-Star break. This information is critical to setting weekly lineups in any format. However, there is an added element of strategy you'll need to consider when setting your lineup for the Fastbreak game this time, because we roll this coming week (Week 15) and the shortened week just before the All-Star break (Week 16) into one roster setting. In other words, when you enter your lineup prior to Monday's games, it will be the last time you do so in Segment 1 of Fastbreak.
Upon our return from the All-Star break, we will reboot salaries, switch some position eligibilities and begin anew for Segment 2, which will run through the final games of the NBA season. That means you'll have a chance to build a fresh team and compete from scratch.
In the meantime, we need to consider the unique effect of running your team out there for two weeks. It will be great to see Derrick Rose return to action soon after the break, but the rest of his teammates will be tough to use during this final stretch, because the Chicago Bulls are the only team that plays only four games.
The upside of this unusual situation of using players for two weeks is that you can use players from teams that play only a single game in Week 16. That's because those squads with one game in Week 16 -- the Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic and Phoenix Suns -- all play four times in Week 15, giving them a total of five games during that stretch.
Still, there are better situations out there than those teams playing five times. The Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Bobcats, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz all have six games scheduled. That's great news if you have the requisite cheddar to use super studs like Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Kevin Durant.
Using Chris Paul would be a no-brainer if he were healthy, because the Los Angeles Clippers are the only team with a seven-game schedule to wrap up Segment 1, with four games in Week 15 and three games the following week. That schedule makes Blake Griffin arguably the best option at forward over this final stretch, because he has been red hot with CP3 out, tallying at least 31 FB points in all but one of his past six games.
With all this in mind, let's take a gander at some of the better values to use as we put a bow on Segment 1.
Guards
Ty Lawson (10.3), Nuggets: It took Lawson a long time to shake off his Achilles injury, but he has looked a lot more like the fantasy stud we got used to last season, when he finally broke out. The upside of his earlier struggles is that his Fastbreak contract remains entirely reasonable at $10.3 million. He has six games over this final stretch of Segment 1, including two games against the stat-friendly Warriors, which makes him a solid value.

Damian Lillard (9.3), Trail Blazers: Lillard has been one of the better values in Fastbreak for quite a while because his initial contract was so cheap as a rookie. It's safe to assume that his initial contract for Segment 2 will reflect the terrific production we have seen from him to date, which means he may not be a great financial value every week in Segment 2. Nonetheless, he remains an excellent play as we head to the All-Star break, as he still costs only $9.3 million and has six games, primarily against friendly defenses (MIN, DAL, HOU, ORL, MIA and NO).Eric Bledsoe (7.9), Clippers: Using the young point guard over the final stretch is entirely dependent upon knowing that CP3 will be shut down all the way up the All-Star break. The Clips haven't said anything like that, and they may not be so kind as to let us know prior to setting our lineups on Monday, but the writing may be on the wall. Paul is dealing with a bruised kneecap, so the team might take advantage of the break to let him rest up for the long haul. If that does end up being the case, Bledsoe would make for an intriguing play, with seven games on his platter and a dirt-cheap contract of $7.9 million.
Forwards
Andrei Kirilenko (8.6), Timberwolves: Like Lillard, AK-47 has been a terrific value throughout Segment 1 due to the low expectations we had for him at the start of the season, which led to a cheap starting point for his initial contract. He has continued to churn out excellent stats, especially with Kevin Love sidelined, but his market value has never caught up to the rest of the studs who are producing similar numbers. That should change in Segment 2, but for now, Kirilenko remains one of the top values in Fastbreak.
Andre Drummond (8.3), Pistons: On Tuesday, Drummond gave us a glimpse of his long-term fantasy potential when he abused the Milwaukee Bucks frontcourt for 18 points (9-for-15 FG), 18 rebounds, 2 steals and a block in 28 minutes of action. He still needs to figure out how to shoot a free throw -- missing 8 of 10 free throw attempts in the next game -- but he will be a fantasy beast nonetheless as soon as he gets into the starting lineup. I still think that will happen right after the All-Star break, but he remains a terrific value over the final two weeks of Segment 1 at $8.3 million.
Earl Clark (5.6), Lakers: Clark doesn't offer elite upside, but his ridiculously cheap $5.6 million contract and six-game slate make him a good value for teams that are tight against the salary cap after funneling their finances into the truly elite studs of the game. His steady rebounding production means that he should have little trouble chipping in double-digit Fastbreak points each game, and he has 20-point potential on any given night when things click.
Center
Nikola Pekovic (9.3), Timberwolves: When news came that Love was going to be sidelined for another lengthy stretch, Pek was immediately poised to settle in as a steady Fastbreak stud at an affordable price. Unfortunately for him and his potential owners, soon after Love went down, a bruised thigh sidelined Pekovic. He returned to action Wednesday and proved his fantasy prowess by piling up 22 Fastbreak points. With six games on his platter and a terrific market value of $9.3 million, Pek looks like an excellent option at center for the stretch run of Segment 1.
DeAndre Jordan (9.1), Clippers: Jordan's production has been far from consistent, but you can count on double-digit Fastbreak points most nights, and he is always a threat for 20 points. The fact that he plays seven games during this final stretch leading up to the ASB means he should have little trouble racking up 80-plus points. That makes him a quality roster addition at $9.1 million.

Category	10-Team Leagues	12-Team Leagues
Points	14 3/5	14.1
Rebounds	5 5/7	5.4
Assists	2 8/9	2.7
3-Pointers	1 1/5	1.1
Blocks	1/2	0.5
Steals	1 1/9	1
Field Goal Percentage	46 8/9	46.9
Free Throw Percentage	79 4/5	79.6
Turnovers	1 4/5	1.8

NBA Fantasy News 2012/2013

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