NBA Fantasy News 2012/2013

HacheMan · Mar 11, 2013

Difference-makers to consider

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com

With just a little more than a month left in the season, it's time for owners to start preparing themselves for the stretch run. For some of you, that might mean you'll have to take more risks than you're used to. If you are still hovering in the middle of the pack or lower this late in the season, you will have to make some drastic moves to get back into the race.

That may include dropping players who aren't getting the job done, even if you've relied on them all season. I don't know about you, but if I'm within striking distance of the leaders and still have some ground to make up, I'm not going to be waiting around for players who aren't getting it done when there are plenty of viable options waiting on the waiver wire.

Unfortunately, the trade deadline has already passed in most fantasy leagues, so the only way you can improve your squad is through the waiver wire. With that in mind, let's take a look at some players who have been bouncing on and off the most-added/dropped list over the past few weeks:

• Just in case there's any confusion, Bradley Beal should not be available in any leagues despite the fact that he's missed his past three games with an ankle injury. Make no mistake, as soon as Beal is ready to return, he'll be earning big time minutes for the 20-41 Wizards. Beal was averaging a cool 20.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 2.1 3-pointers in his past seven games before going down with the injury. If someone dropped him in your league, get him as soon as possible.

• I would be worried about how Derrick Williams will fare once the Timberwolves are fully healthy, but with all the injury-prone guys on this roster, I'm starting to think he might be safe for the rest of the season even when Kevin Love returns to the lineup. With 18.0 points, 8.6 rebounds, 0.7 steals, 0.7 blocks and 0.8 3-pointers in nine games since the All-Star break, Williams is beginning to show flashes of the talent that made him the second overall pick in the 2011 NBA draft. With the 21-38 Wolves on the outside looking in at the playoff race, expect Williams to earn heavy minutes the rest of the way.

• I'd be lying if I didn't say I was a little worried about Marcus Thornton's relative lack of minutes catching up to him at some point, but I'm not going to argue with his averages of 19.9 points and 3.3 3-pointers in 27.7 minutes per game since the All-Star break. Like I said last week, Thornton is a great fantasy play when he's on the court, so owners should continue to ride him while he's hot. Teammate Isaiah Thomas, meanwhile, continues to rise in the rankings after posting 17.1 points, 5.2 assists, 1.3 steals and 2.0 3-pointers in his past 10 games.

• Al-Farouq Aminu has been in and out of the top 130 throughout the course of the season, but a recent uptick in minutes has made him valuable once again. Aminu won't score much, but he can contribute on the defensive end in a big way when he's seeing minutes. With 7.0 points, 9.4 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 2.1 blocks in 32.7 minutes since the All-Star break, Aminu has been very productive for fantasy owners in recent action. With the New Orleans sitting in the basement in the Western Conference, I'd be shocked if they don't continue to give the 22-year-old plenty of run the rest of the way.

• Mo Williams might be rusty for a week or two after missing 32 games with a thumb injury, but that oft-injured point guard should be added in all leagues after averaging 12.3 points, 6.5 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.3 3-pointers prior to the injury. Williams has averaged 6.0 points, 4.3 assists and 1.0 3-pointers in 26.0 minutes in three games since his return, and fantasy owners should expect his minutes and production to increase in the coming weeks.

• The 22-42 Phoenix Suns haven't offered us much fantasy value this season outside of Goran Dragic, but with Marcin Gortat potentially out for the season with a foot injury, we might actually find some more value here. Veteran 34-year-old Jermaine O'Neal has played surprisingly well in recent action, with 12.1 points, 9.3 rebounds and 1.6 blocks in seven games since the All-Star break, and he's an intriguing pickup option if he can keep himself on the court. Those in deeper leagues may want to try their luck with one of the Morris twins, although I'm not sure anyone can predict if Marcus or Markieff is the better play. Marcus appears to have the upper hand at the moment, averaging 12.0 points, 1.8 steals and 1.6 3-pointers in 25.2 minutes in his past five games.

• I know that Andre Drummond still doesn't have an official timetable for his return, but I'd still keep him rostered in most leagues given his upside. Remember, Drummond averaged 8.8 points, 9.2 rebounds, 0.8 steals and 2.0 blocks in only 22.2 minutes in the month of January before going down with a back injury. Obviously there is quite a bit of upside in Drummond, so he should be able to offer some value during the stretch run even if the Pistons play it safe and hold him out for another week or two.

• In eight games since joining the Magic, Tobias Harris has averaged 15.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.0 3-pointers in 27.8 minutes per game. That's a lot of production for the 20-year-old, so owners should be patient with his night-to-night inconsistencies that can be blamed almost entirely on foul trouble. I don't think Harris will suddenly learn how to curb his fouling tendencies before the season is through, but he should remain valuable thanks to his tremendous per-minute production.

[h=3]The Top 130[/h]Note: Brian McKitish's top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2012-13 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses.
1. Kevin Durant, OKC (1)
2. LeBron James, MIA (2)
3. Chris Paul, LAC (3)
4. James Harden, HOU (5)
5. Russell Westbrook, OKC (4)
6. Stephen Curry, GS (6)
7. Kobe Bryant, LAL (8)
8. Dwyane Wade, MIA (9)
9. Kyrie Irving, CLE (10)
10. Paul George, IND (13)
11. Carmelo Anthony, NY (11)
12. Marc Gasol, MEM (14)
13. Serge Ibaka, OKC (12)
14. Ty Lawson, DEN (17)
15. Nicolas Batum, POR (7)
16. Joakim Noah, CHI (25)
17. Brandon Jennings, MIL (34)
18. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (16)
19. Paul Pierce, BOS (21)
20. Brook Lopez, BKN (19)
21. Josh Smith, ATL (18)
22. Jrue Holiday, PHI (20)
23. Al Horford, ATL (26)
24. David Lee, GS (22)
25. Jeff Teague, ATL (23)
26. Damian Lillard, POR (32)
27. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR (24)
28. Blake Griffin, LAC (27)
29. Larry Sanders, MIL (30)
30. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (29)
31. Ricky Rubio, MIN (33)
32. Rudy Gay, TOR (15)
33. Deron Williams, BKN (35)
34. Greg Monroe, DET (28)
35. Al Jefferson, UTAH (31)
36. Mike Conley, MEM (39)
37. Greivis Vasquez, NO (41)
38. Kemba Walker, CHA (37)
39. Kevin Garnett, BOS (40)
40. Goran Dragic, PHO (42)
41. Dwight Howard, LAL (43)
42. J.R. Smith, NY (51)
43. Monta Ellis, MIL (53)
44. Anthony Davis, NO (49)
45. Klay Thompson, GS (52)
46. Danilo Gallinari, DEN (46)
47. Ryan Anderson, NO (44)
48. John Wall, WSH (36)
49. Zach Randolph, MEM (45)
50. Chris Bosh, MIA (47)
51. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (38)
52. Tim Duncan, SA (55)
53. Nikola Vucevic, ORL (57)
54. Jose Calderon, DET (48)
55. George Hill, IND (54)
56. Jameer Nelson, ORL (66)
57. Bradley Beal, WSH (79)
58. Kyle Lowry, TOR (50)
59. Kenneth Faried, DEN (56)
60. Isaiah Thomas, SAC (64)
61. Chandler Parsons, HOU (75)
62. Paul Millsap, UTAH (58)
63. Wesley Matthews, POR (62)
64. Luol Deng, CHI (60)
65. Andre Iguodala, DEN (70)
66. Thaddeus Young, PHI (85)
67. Tyreke Evans, SAC (61)
68. David West, IND (69)
69. Roy Hibbert, IND (73)
70. Tyson Chandler, NY (65)
71. Jeremy Lin, HOU (67)
72. Omer Asik, HOU (72)
73. Tristan Thompson, CLE (74)
74. O.J. Mayo, DAL (76)
75. J.J. Hickson, POR (77)
76. Jamal Crawford, LAC (78)
77. Carlos Boozer, CHI (71)
78. Manu Ginobili, SA (82)
79. Steve Nash, LAL (68)
80. Daniel Green, SA (83)
81. Kawhi Leonard, SA (86)
82. Joe Johnson, BKN (80)
83. Jeff Green, BOS (84)
84. Kevin Martin, OKC (81)
85. Nikola Pekovic, MIN (63)
86. Evan Turner, PHI (87)
87. Jarrett Jack, GS (59)
88. Emeka Okafor, WSH (88)
89. Raymond Felton, NY (90)
90. Kevin Love, MIN (91)
91. Amir Johnson, TOR (93)
92. Arron Afflalo, ORL (95)
93. Marcus Thornton, SAC (99)
94. Eric Gordon, NO (100)
95. Gordon Hayward, UTAH (96)
96. DeMar DeRozan, TOR (98)
97. Shawn Marion, DAL (102)
98. Andrei Kirilenko, MIN (92)
99. Nene Hilario, WSH (104)
100. Derrick Williams, MIN (116)
101. Brandon Knight, DET (117)
102. Mo Williams, UTAH (NR)
103. Carlos Delfino, HOU (101)
104. J.J. Redick, MIL (107)
105. Jermaine O'Neal, PHO (125)
106. Tobias Harris, ORL (120)
107. Dion Waiters, CLE (105)
108. Moe Harkless, ORL (114)
109. Luke Ridnour, MIN (115)
110. Metta World Peace, LAL (110)
111. Gerald Henderson, CHA (113)
112. Derrick Favors, UTAH (121)
113. Al-Farouq Aminu, NO (NR)
114. Jason Thompson, SAC (NR)
115. Nate Robinson, CHI (112)
116. Danny Granger, IND (97)
117. Vince Carter, DAL (119)
118. Tony Allen, MEM (123)
119. Derrick Rose, CHI (118)
120. Trevor Ariza, WSH (126)
121. Kyle Korver, ATL (103)
122. Andrew Bogut, GS (NR)
123. Andre Drummond, DET (124)
124. Jason Kidd, NY (NR)
125. Devin Harris, ATL (NR)
126. Dorell Wright, PHI (NR)
127. JaVale McGee, DEN (NR)
128. Avery Bradley, BOS (130)
129. Wilson Chandler, DEN (NR)
130. Jason Terry, BOS (NR)

HacheMan · Mar 11, 2013

[h=3]Roy Hibbert's shot coming around[/h]By Tom Carpenter, ESPN.com

I'm guessing that most of our readers can barely touch the rim with a running start. I'm also guessing that at 7-foot-2, Roy Hibbert can touch the rim without leaving the ground. That's a big reason why he is getting paid millions of dollars to play basketball and we are not. It's also a big reason why we have been so frustrated with his inability to put the rock through said hoop on a consistent basis this season.
How bad has it been? The center has hit just 43 percent of his field goal attempts this season. That puts him below chucking guards like Russell Westbrook (43.7 field goal percentage) and Marcus Thornton (43.2 percent) and ties him with point guard Greivis Vasquez. Seriously, even horrible-shooting bigs like DeMarcus Cousins (45.5 percent) and Spencer Hawes (44.5 percent) are knocking shots down at a far better clip.

However, the big fella has shown some dramatic improvement in that department in recent weeks. Hibbert has hit at least half of his field goal attempts in all but one of his past 10 games, and that lone tilt was a 6-for-13 effort. In the five games prior to his one-game suspension for scrapping with David Lee, Hibbs had been underutilized, taking no more than nine shots in any of those games and twice playing less than 20 minutes despite, as I just noted, shooting well. Since the suspension, though, he has shot 53.2 percent on 11.2 shots per game (up from 10.0 in February), and averaged 14.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.2 blocks. In a losing effort against the Miami Heat Sunday, Hibbert managed to knock down seven of his 14 shots for 16 points.

Prior to March, he had not topped 45.9 percent in any single month and had two months under 41.0 percent, which had made him particularly untenable to use at center in roto leagues. However, we should keep in mind that Hibbert shot under 50 percent in only one month during last season's condensed campaign, so we know that he can be effective in that department. If you still haven't passed your trade deadline and are scrapping in a roto league to bump your field goal percentage, Hibbert could be a quality acquisition to see if he can return to last season's form for the stretch run.

Now if we could just teach him how to rebound like he's a 7-foot-2 center.

[h=4]SUNDAY, MARCH 10[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Ryan Anderson, Hornets: 20 points, 4 3-pointers, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 1 block against the Trail Blazers
Jameer Nelson, Magic: 24 points (9-17 FG), 5 3-pointers, 5 rebounds, 10 assists versus the 76ers
Thaddeus Young, 76ers: 26 points (13-17 FG), 12 rebounds, 5 steals against the Magic
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Paul George, Pacers: 10 points (2-11 FG), 2 3-pointers, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 turnovers versus the Heat
Jeff Green, Celtics: 8 points (2-11 FG), 2 rebounds, 0 assists, 3 turnovers against the Thunder
Evan Turner, 76ers: 6 points (2-5 FG), 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 turnovers versus the Magic

[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• Speaking of bigs who aren't holding up their end of the deal on the glass, Chris Bosh pulled down just three rebounds against the Indiana Pacers Sunday. That's the 10th time in his past 11 games he had single-digit rebounds. Considering the Miami Heat's epic win streak and how well LeBron James and Dwyane Wade have been playing, there's little reason to think the Heat will suddenly change their formula, which means Bosh is unlikely to suddenly become a big rebounding threat in the waning weeks. On the upside, though, he topped the 20-point mark for the first time since Valentine's Day, scoring 24 on 11-of-15 shooting from the field. At this point, Bosh is pretty much a one-trick pony, as he continues to rack up a terrific field goal percentage game after game.

• Thaddeus Young took flight this weekend. On Friday, he racked up 25 points (12 of 15 FG) against the Heat and followed that up with 26 points (13-17 FG) and a dozen rebounds against the Orlando Magic. In six games this month, he is averaging 19.0 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.7 SPG and shooting 60.0 percent from the field. Perhaps not coincidentally, Evan Turner's production has slipped during that stretch. Turner had 10 points (4-13 FG) Friday and six points (2-5 FG) Sunday. In six March games, Turner is averaging 11.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and shooting 37.5 percent, though he is maintaining some fantasy value with 4.8 assists per game. It's possible that Young's hot play will allow Turner a little more space to turn his numbers around, but I think it's more likely that Young will stay hot and push the struggling Turner to the back seat, statistically.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Per ESPNChicago.com, Derrick Rose won't return to action until he can shake off soreness in his hamstrings and dunk confidently off of his surgically repaired left knee. It sounds like he could be a surprise starter at any given moment, but there is no need to stick him into weekly lineups until we know he is ready.

• Kyrie Irving left Sunday's game with a bruised left shoulder. He's still dealing with a sore right knee, too. He's been battling through that, but the combination of injuries could force him to sit out of some game action. The trouble for weekly lineup leagues is that the Cleveland Cavaliers play just thrice this week, so even one missed game could derail his week. Look for Shaun Livingston to start and for Dion Waiters to get a bump in production if Irving does sit.

• The Sacramento Kings play only two games this week, and Cousins may play in only one of them after elbowing Mike Dunleavy in the head Sunday. Cousins was ejected, and considering his lengthy history of shoddy behavior on the court, he well may be suspended by the league.

• Nikola Pekovic and Andrei Kirilenko are getting closer to returning to game action. Kirilenko may well play this week, while Pek is just moving on to basketball-related activities. I'd keep Pekovic on your bench for Week 20 and keep your ears open for updates later today on Kirilenko to see if he may get back into the mix. The Minnesota Timberwolves play four games every week the rest of the way, so he's a nice add off waivers if some other owner gave up on him.

• Andre Drummond is not expected to return from his back injury this week. Perhaps we'll see him next week, when the Detroit Pistons have a stretch of games during which they have at least two days between games three times (and one back-to-back set next weekend). He's still worth a stretch-run roster stash in most formats.

[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
Picking your Fastbreak center for Tuesday evening should be a no-brainer. Dwight Howard has been playing quite well of late -- especially in points leagues, where his horrific free throw shooting can be covered up -- and he is headed back to Florida to face his old Magic teammates. You can make a case that he may well wilt under the pressure, and we can assume breakout fantasy stud Nikola Vucevic will do his best to keep D12 in check, but it's worth sticking Howard into your lineup to find out.

HacheMan · Mar 12, 2013

[h=1]Field goal impact[/h][h=3]Efficient, high-volume shooters with 3-point skills have lots of value[/h]By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

Winning fantasy basketball strategies lie in the details. And one hazy detail is the true impact a player has on his fantasy team's field goal percentage.

The problem being that field goal percentage doesn't actually paint a full picture in how well a fantasy team shoots from the field.

The gray area exists in the space that lies between shot efficiency and shot volume.

To get the full picture, we need to consider two other factors: a.) the amount of 3-pointers the player converts successfully, and b.) how many shots a player averages per game.

There's already a statistic that depicts factor A. Effective field goal Percentage (or eFG%, or adjusted field goal percentage) accounts for the extra point generated by a converted 3-point shot. If you're into some heavy geekery, here's the formula: Field Goals + 0.5 * 3-pointers / Field Goals Attempted

For instance, Ryan Anderson only shoots 44 percent from the floor (78th in the NBA). But his effective field goal percentage is much a much higher 54 percent (25th) thanks to the large amount of his successfully converted 3-point attempts.

Factor B -- the volume of attempts -- is harder to fold into an existing stat. Tyson Chandler leads the NBA in field goal percentage at 64.7 percent. But Chandler only attempts 6.2 shots from the field per game, barely a third of the 18 attempts Kevin Durant and LeBron James take every night.

Think about it; it takes Chandler almost three complete games to equal the amount of shots attempted by LeBron in a single contest. Chandler shoots 64.7 percent, but LeBron is no slouch at 56.2 percent.

Furthermore, Chandler doesn't bother with 3-pointers, while LeBron averages 1.4 3-pointers per game. That means Chandler's effective field goal percentage remains the same as his raw field goal percentage at 64.7 percent, but LeBron's effective field goal percentage jumps up to 60.0 percent.

Chandler is No. 1 in field goal and effective field goal Percentage. LeBron is No. 9 in field goal percentage and No. 3 in effective field goal percentage.

But Chandler is actually only 4.7 percent better from the floor than LeBron. And LeBron takes almost three times as many shots.

Taking in the full picture, LeBron has a much, much greater impact on a fantasy team's field goal percentage.

No knock against Chandler -- one of the most efficient offensive players in basketball -- but no player comes close to the net positive shooting benefit LeBron provides to his fantasy owners.

The fact that 3-pointers are a fantasy category help include the impact of effective field goal percentage. But I've always thought there should be a statistic that helps delineate the idea of an individual player's field goal impact.

Last season, in trying to reconcile this issue of effective field goal percentage plus shot volume upon a player's true shooting impact, I reached out to John Hollinger, late of ESPN and now with the Memphis Grizzlies.

Hollinger graciously made some suggestions, and I ended up with the following formula: (eFG%-league average eFG%) * (FGA/gm)/(League average FGA/gm)

Which, for simplicity's sake, I'm referring to as field goal impact, or FG%I.

I ran all the players who have logged enough field goal attempts to qualify for the league lead (plus John Wall, because I was curious) through the field goal impact formula. LeBron is No. 1 with a FG%I of 24.3. The player who comes the closest to having no effect (closest to zero)? Mike Conley at -0.14.

Here are the current top 10 in field goal impact. I've also included their current rank in field goal percentage, so you can see how the addition of volume reshuffles the rankings.

FG%I RK	FG% RK	PLAYER	TEAM	FG%I	FG%
1	10	LeBron James, SF	MIA	24.31	56.2%
2	30	Kevin Durant, SF	OKC	13.72	50.5%
3	1	Tyson Chandler, C	NY	12.08	64.6%
4	40	Chandler Parsons, SF	HOU	11.88	48.5%
5	11	Al Horford, C	ATL	11.27	55.6%
6	57	Danny Green, SG	SA	11.21	46.0%
7	9	Serge Ibaka, PF	OKC	10.91	56.7%
8	6	Dwight Howard, C	LAL	10.67	57.4%
9	42	Jose Calderon, PG	DET/TOR	10.17	48.3%
10	12	Blake Griffin, PF	LAC	10.07	55.1%

As you can see, field goal impact rewards the players who take and make 3-pointers. The big men who traditionally lead the NBA in field goal percentage are still accounted for (Chandler, Horford, Howard). But the guards and wings who shoot well from behind the 3-point line are also folded in. (Not to mention bigs like Ibaka who make the occasional 3-pointer). And I love how players like Parsons, Green, and Calderon -- quietly, some of the most efficient shooters in the NBA -- get their due.

The one player who throws off the curve? LeBron. The rest of the qualifying NBA players form a nice gradual curve from the bottom & after you get past LeBron, who's 57 percent better than anyone else in the NBA. (I'm not sure LeBron has 57 percent more impact than Durant. As a matter of fact, I'm pretty sure he doesn't. But the rest of the distribution of FG%I holds a remarkable consistency).

Here are the players who received the largest positive boost from the field goal impact formula outside of the top 10. Again, I think this shows how field goal impact can give us a better fantasy perspective.

FG%I RK	FG% RK	PLAYER	TEAM	FG%I	FG%
15	76	Stephen Curry, PG	GS	9.21	44.3%
17	63	J.J. Redick, SG	MIL/ORL	8.29	45.2%
19	78	Ryan Anderson, PF	NO	8.18	44.0%
20	77	Wesley Matthews, SG	POR	7.90	44.2%
22	72	Kevin Martin, SG	OKC	7.22	44.5%
32	82	Vince Carter, SG	DAL	5.08	43.6%
38	95	Nicolas Batum, SF	POR	4.14	42.8%
41	89	Marcus Thornton, SG	SAC	3.93	43.2%
43	86	Jason Terry, SG	BOS	3.71	43.4%
48	102	Klay Thompson, SG	GS	3.05	42.2%
55	101	Caron Butler, SF	LAC	1.54	42.3%
56	99	Danilo Gallinari, SF	DEN	1.46	42.5%
60	100	Paul George, SF	IND	0.98	42.4%

He's having an off year, but Klay Thompson is not the 102nd-best shooter in fantasy. When you account for volume of shot attempts and 3-pointers, he rightfully climbs into the top 50. Stephen Curry jumps from 76th to 15th thanks to his eye-popping .451 3-point percentage.

Now let's look at some of players who took the biggest slide:

FG%I RK	FG% RK	PLAYER	TEAM	FG%I	FG%
23	8	Amir Johnson, PF	TOR	7.21	56.9%
24	7	JaVale McGee, C	DEN	7.08	57.3%
27	13	Kenneth Faried, SF	DEN	6.24	55.0%
35	15	Robin Lopez, C	NO	4.80	53.9%
45	18	Carl Landry, PF	GS	3.36	53.0%
49	22	Marcin Gortat, C	PHX	3.02	52.1%
50	23	Jason Thompson, PF	SAC	2.84	52.0%
52	27	Nikola Pekovic, C	MIN	2.04	51.0%
53	28	Anthony Davis, PF	NO	1.61	50.8%
67	32	Andray Blatche, C	BKN	0.42	49.8%
68	33	Tim Duncan, PF	SA	0.35	49.7%
69	39	Paul Millsap, PF	UTAH	0.15	48.8%
72	34	Kevin Garnett, C	BOS	-0.33	49.2%
73	35	David West, PF	IND	-0.37	49.2%
77	36	Marc Gasol, C	MEM	-0.85	48.9%
78	37	Tristan Thompson, PF	CLE	-0.85	48.9%
82	38	Al Jefferson, C	UTAH	-1.22	48.9%
83	43	Emeka Okafor, C	WSH	-1.44	48.3%
87	41	Greg Monroe, C	DET	-1.86	48.5%
92	60	Josh Smith, SF	ATL	-2.46	45.7%
95	49	Joakim Noah, C	CHI	-3.73	46.7%
97	65	Spencer Hawes, C	PHI	-3.82	45.1%
102	54	Luis Scola, PF	PHX	-4.47	46.4%
103	46	LaMarcus Aldridge, PF	POR	-4.57	47.5%
106	51	Zach Randolph, PF	MEM	-5.20	46.6%
113	84	Russell Westbrook, PG	OKC	-6.59	43.6%
115	61	DeMarcus Cousins, C	SAC	-7.09	45.5%
122	88	DeMar DeRozan, SG	TOR	-9.68	43.4%

Field goal impact doesn't punish big men for not taking 3-pointers. It just helps gain perspective on the importance of 3-point production in fantasy.

The players Field Goal Impact really punishes are the ineffective 3-point shooters. Josh Smith (a 32.7 percent 3-point shooter), DeMar DeRozan (25.0 percent) and Russell Westbrook (33.9 percent) all took big hits in their rankings because of their relatively low 3-point percentages.
To round things out, here's the entire bottom 10, plus John Wall, who technically doesn't have enough field goal attempts to qualify, but I'm curious to see where he landed.

FG%I RK	FG% RK	PLAYER	TEAM	FG%I	FG%
115	61	DeMarcus Cousins, C	SAC	-7.09	45.5%
116	114	Dion Waiters, SG	CLE	-7.83	41.0%
117	104	Luol Deng, SF	CHI	-8.29	42.2%
118	92	Roy Hibbert, C	IND	-8.66	43.0%
119	122	Michael Beasley, SF	PHX	-8.83	39.9%
120	117	Ramon Sessions, PG	CHA	-9.08	40.8%
121	109	Evan Turner, SF	PHI	-9.09	41.7%
122	88	DeMar DeRozan, SG	TOR	-9.68	43.4%
N/A	N/A	John Wall, PG	WSH	-13.09	41.4%
123	112	Monta Ellis, PG	MIL	-13.49	41.3%
124	121	Rudy Gay, SF	TOR/MEM	-15.19	40.0%

The interesting fact is how Cousins and Hibbert both sank here despite not being 3-point shooters. The reason they sank is because of their high volume of attempts, coupled with extremely low field goal percentages relative to their position.

I like how field goal impact highlights the flaws in certain players' shooting performances that would otherwise be masked by pedestrian field goal percentages (like Cousins' very average 45.5 percent).

The most frustrating aspect of Rudy Gay's horrific shooting performance this season is that he's actually gotten worse since the trade to Toronto. His field goal impact since becoming a Raptor is a shocking -19.78.

If Toronto continues to slide in efficiency, by the end of the season, NBA teams bound for the playoffs may be able to defend the Raptors with just four players, allowing coaches to rest one player per offensive possession. I actually wouldn't put it past Gregg Popovich.

HacheMan · Mar 12, 2013

Is Kyrie Irving injury-prone?

By Tom Carpenter, ESPN.com

News came yesterday that the sprained left shoulder that Kyrie Irving sustained Sunday is expected to sideline him for 3-4 weeks. If he returned exactly three weeks from Monday, he would get in 10 games, but coach Byron Scott admitted that his young point guard could miss the remainder of the season. Obviously, the Cleveland Cavaliers have nothing but a draft spot for which to play, so there is no reason to push him to return unnecessarily quickly. Considering his top-10 upside, though, I would hold onto Irving in nearly any fantasy format, but we are left with questions about whether he is injury-prone and who on the Cavs will benefit statistically from his absence.

Scott said he doesn't think Irving is injury-prone.

"He still is very young. His body hasn't fully developed. I'm just not that concerned about it, to be honest with you," Scott said. "All the injuries that he has gotten have been legitimate injuries. It's not something that keeps recurring over and over again."

On the other hand, we have to consider that he played only 11 games at Duke thanks to a toe injury, missed 15 games as a rookie, missed 14 games due to injuries this season and was already battling through a sore knee before the shoulder injury popped up, so I think we have to dub Irving prone to injury until he proves otherwise. Still, I wouldn't hesitate to take him in the first round next season with the hope that Scott is right that Irving will grow into his NBA body and play 75-80 games each season.

In the meantime, Shaun Livingston is pegged to start at the point in Irving's stead. He's never fully recovered from the horrific knee injury that derailed his career, but he scored 15 points and totaled eight dimes in two recent starts, so he may be worth a look in deeper leagues. We just can't expect big numbers.

Dion Waiters should have the biggest upside with Irving sidelined, but life would have been a lot easier for him with Irving setting up his shots. The best fantasy pickup from the Cavs should be C.J. Miles (owned in just 12.5 percent of ESPN leagues), as he can chip in scoring, 3s and steals. Roto teams desperate for 3-point shooting could also take a look at Daniel Gibson.

[h=4]MONDAY, MARCH 11[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Spencer Hawes, 76ers: 24 points (10-15 FG), 10 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 blocks against the Nets
Kosta Koufos, Nuggets: 22 points (10-11 FG), 10 rebounds versus the Suns
Deron Williams, Nets: 27 points (10-19 FG), 2 3-pointers, 6 rebounds, 13 assists, 1 turnover against the 76ers
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Carmelo Anthony, Knicks: 14 points (4-15 FG), 10 rebounds, 0 assists versus the Warriors
Danilo Gallinari, Nuggets: 5 points (1-8 FG), 5 rebounds, 2 assists against the Suns
J.R. Smith, Knicks: 9 points (3-11 FG), 0 3-pointers, 1 assist, 2 turnovers versus the Warriors

[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• Carmelo Anthony looked mighty rusty in his return to action Monday. He scored 14 points with 10 boards, but he missed 11 of his 15 shots, three of his nine free throws and failed to dish out even a single assist. Barring a setback, he should be good to go for the New York Knicks' three remaining games this week. Hopefully, he'll pick up the pace when he returns to his old digs Wednesday in a road tilt with the Denver Nuggets.

• A bruised knee kept David Lee out of action Saturday, but he was back in the mix Monday and looked solid, as he nearly triple-doubled: 21 points (7-15 FG, 7-8 FT), 10 rebounds and 8 assists. He said he wasn't 100 percent yet, but it appears he should be fine for the last three games the Golden State Warriors play this week.

• Mo Williams finally showed up in a relevant manner on the stat sheet Monday by posting 20 points (9-14 FG) to go with six dimes and a 3-pointer. He was averaging a little better than 12 points, 6 assists and a 3-pointer before he was injured, so those of you who held on to him should get similar value down the stretch. In fact, he's still available in about 20 percent of ESPN leagues.

• Once upon a time I was intrigued by Wesley Johnson, but he never fleshed out with the Minnesota Timberwolves and has been an afterthought with the Phoenix Suns, despite their general lack of talent. However, he showed up with 18 points (9-17 FG) Monday, the fourth time he has scored at least 14 points in his past seven games. He's also knocked down a dozen 3s during that stretch. The catch, though, is that he has lacked any signs of scoring consistency (18, 5, 19, 5, 15, 8, 14) during that span of games. I can't say I'm genuinely intrigued by him anymore, but he is starting for the Suns and could help out teams in deep leagues down the stretch if he can somehow find a way to be consistent.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Reports of Brandon Knight's demise at the hands of DeAndre Jordan may have been greatly exaggerated, but Knight had some salt poured directly into those open posterization wounds Monday when he went down with what The Detroit News dubbed "severe" ankle injury. Assuming that he's out for an extended stretch, we should see Will Bynum and Rodney Stuckey get a significant boost in production. Both are worth consideration in most leagues.

• Zach Randolph appears to be on track to start tonight. You'll want to check for updates as game time nears, but assuming he returns from his ankle injury, Ed Davis would return to his bench role.

• Bradley Beal's bum ankle forced him to skip Monday's practice, so it appears unlikely that he will be ready for Tuesday's game. Garrett Temple should get the start again, while Martell Webster and Trevor Ariza should continue to benefit from Beal's absence.

• New Orleans Hornets coach Monty Williams said that as far as he knows, Eric Gordon will continue to not take part in back-to-back games for the remainder of the season. The Hornets' medical staff appears focused on getting the guard healthy for next year and beyond. That's good news for Gordon's health, but bad news for those of you hoping to get full stat production out of Gordon down the stretch.

• Jamal Crawford practiced Monday and should return from his ankle injury tonight. Teammate Eric Bledsoe seems iffy, at best, due to his calf injury. Neither is much of an option for fantasy teams this week, as the Los Angeles Clippers ball just twice in Week 20.

[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
Most of the top centers have less-than-ideal matchups Wednesday evening, like Al Horford against the Lakers, Dwight Howard in Atlanta, Al Jefferson at the Thunder and Marc Gasol at the Clippers. And some of the centers with good matchups aren't necessarily good options; Greg Monroe (at Golden State) has been struggling of late and Larry Sanders (at Washington) is battling a hyperextended knee. So, I'm going to go with Joakim Noah in a pretty friendly matchup against the Kings. He posted 34 Fastbreak points against the Lakers Sunday and is facing a Kings team that may roll without DeMarcus Cousins, if he ends up being suspended for throwing an elbow at Mike Dunleavy on Sunday.

HacheMan · Mar 13, 2013

Helpful pickups: Thabo, Henderson ...

By Seth Landman | Special to ESPN.com

At this point in the season, the standings likely won't change quickly, but that doesn't mean you can't tinker with your roster for a little boost. And the right moves could still net you first place, depending on your league's format. The list that follows is comprised of players who are probably available in your league and could help you out down the stretch. Chances are, you have at least one underperforming player on your roster, and now is the time to cut bait and give yourself one last chance.

(Ranking based on per-game averages in parentheses)

Sefolosha

Thabo Sefolosha, SG/SF, Thunder (100): In the absence of James Harden, we've seen a whole lot more Thabo this season, and that hasn't been all bad. He's not a great offensive player by any means, but he's a player who is clearly comfortable within a given role. He's making 1.3 3s per game, which is pretty good, and has remained a constant presence just about all season. What makes him really good in fantasy, though, is his ability to rack up steals. After a slow start to the season, he has averaged at least 1.5 steals in every month since November, and that carries major value down the stretch if you need help in that category. Interestingly, his shooting has also become a bit of a weapon. His numbers from each area won't blow you away, but given his proficiency on 3s, he's actually in the top 20 in true shooting percentage, and while that doesn't help you much in fantasy, it's a good indicator of how he has managed to be a top-70 player (based on his total stats, not per-game averages) so far this season.

Splitter

Tiago Splitter, PF/C, Spurs (112): Splitter has been posting good fantasy numbers for most of the season, and it's time he got snapped up in more than just 36 percent of ESPN.com fantasy leagues. He provides a strong combination of points, rebounds, and field goal percentage -- 11.5 points and 8.8 rebounds per game and 55 percent shooting so far in March -- and is capable of bigger nights, like the 21 points and 10 rebounds he posted in a win over the Thunder on Monday night. He won't help you in the defensive counting stats, but he's augmenting his offensive game with 2.5 assists per game so far in March as well, and that's a pretty impressive number from a big man. Given the Spurs' pass-heavy system, it will be interesting to see whether Splitter can keep it up the rest of the way.

Webster

Martell Webster, SF, Wizards (115): It feels like Webster has been around forever, this is already his eighth season in the league (though he played in just one game one of those years). On the other hand, he's just 26 and is having by far his best season, turning himself into a useful floor-spacer. Webster is making 1.8 3s per game on the season while shooting 86 percent from the line, and those are the two numbers that have made him a fantasy contributor so far this season. However, he also chips in positive contributions in every category except for blocks, and that kind of across-the-board help has some value as well. The reason to pick him up, though, is because he has been playing more minutes of late, and it's making him quite valuable. After some ridiculously hot shooting in February, Webster is up to 35 minutes per game so far in March and is making 2.7 3s per game. That figure would put him up among the league leaders, and if you need help in that category, there is definitely no better option out there.

Koufos

Kosta Koufos, PF/C, Nuggets (119): Koufos, to be honest, should have probably been on fantasy rosters all season. He does a lot of good things and doesn't really hurt you, and he's particularly proficient when it comes to the traditional big-man stats: rebounding, blocks and field goal percentage. Over his past five games, he's averaging the same minutes he has been getting all season, but he's putting up bigger numbers: 11.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game, and 81.3 percent shooting from the field. Obviously, it's the field goal percentage that stands out, and he certainly won't shoot that well the rest of the way, but he could easily hover around 65 percent down the stretch, and that might be enough to boost you a bit in that category.

Henderson

Gerald Henderson, SG/SF, Bobcats (132): It's pretty clear that the Bobcats are going to lean on Henderson down the stretch this season, and that's good for anyone who decides to pick him up in fantasy. He's still available in more than half of ESPN standard leagues, and that's after a 35-point explosion against a weakened Celtics squad. Mainly what Henderson has done of late is score points. He's averaging 16.4 so far in March, and is helping out at the line as well, making 88 percent on 5.7 attempts per game. That free throw shooting alone is enough to give him a place in most fantasy leagues down the stretch, but the scoring doesn't hurt. He won't make many 3s, and he won't pick up many blocks or steals, but his 2.8 assists per game since the All-Star break is a boon, and the combination of all his numbers is probably a bit more exciting than his ranking so far on the season. He's worth owning if you need help from the line the rest of the way.

Bradley

Avery Bradley, PG/SG, Celtics (169): Forget the ranking, as it has little to do with what his numbers will look like the rest of the way. And forget the fact that the whole reason he's on the floor in the first place is his defense, because he doesn't really pick up enough blocks or steals (in part because of his great discipline on the defensive end) to help you in fantasy leagues. Instead, focus on the fact that he's the de facto point guard on a team that is in the top 10 in the league in assists per game. That means Bradley can't help but run into three or four assists per game if he's getting decent minutes. Over his past five games, for example, he's playing 33.8 minutes per game and averaging 3.6 assists to go along with his 12.4 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.2 3s. Those numbers will all fluctuate a bit, as he's still figuring out what he's good at offensively, but his role is what makes him valuable down the stretch this season.

HacheMan · Mar 13, 2013

Revisiting Carmelo Anthony Deal

By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider

As the New York Knicks face the Nuggets tonight in their first trip to Denver since the two teams collaborated with the Minnesota Timberwolves on the 13-player trade that sent Carmelo Anthony to Gotham, both teams find themselves in a better position than they were in when the trade was completed a little more than two years ago.

Despite their injury woes and recent slump, the Knicks are contenders in the East. And the Nuggets, winners of their past nine games, are the hottest team in the West. In different ways, both franchises can trace their success to the win-win trade they made.

[h=3]How Denver Won the Trade[/h]
For the Nuggets, the results of the Anthony trade just keep getting better. As Benjamin Hochman reported in the Denver Post, 10 of the 15 players on the team's roster can be traced to the trade one way or another. Realistically, the Nuggets got six current players in exchange for Anthony, Chauncey Billups and the filler they sent to New York: starters Danilo Gallinari and Kosta Koufos, and reserves Wilson Chandler, Timofey Mozgov, Andre Miller and Jordan Hamilton (the latter two acquired from Portland in exchange for Raymond Felton, the other player the Knicks sent).

Check out the contributions of players involved in the trade on both sides, as measured by my wins above replacement metric:

[h=4]LOOKING BACK AT THE DEAL[/h]

Player 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Total
Danilo Gallinari 1.2 4.2 5.8 11.3
Wilson Chandler 0.1 -0.5 0.6 0.1
Kosta Koufos 0.4 2.9 3.8 7.1
Timofey Mozgov 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
Raymond Felton 1.2 - - 1.2
Andre Miller - 1.7 1.7 3.4
Jordan Hamilton - 0.5 1.2 1.7
Denver Total 2.8 8.9 13.2 25.0
Carmelo Anthony 4.1 8.4 7.3 19.8
Chauncey Billups 2.6 0.0 0.0 2.6
Anthony Carter 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
Shelden Williams 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4
New York Total 7.4 8.4 7.3 23.0

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>

Surprisingly, New York actually saw more immediate benefit from the trade than Denver did, thanks to the addition of both Anthony and Billups. The Nuggets' incredible run to finish the 2010-11 season before running into the Oklahoma City Thunder in the opening round of the playoffs was really more about existing players like Arron Afflalo and Ty Lawson stepping into larger roles than the impact of the newcomers.

With the Knicks waiving Billups via the amnesty provision, Denver's six-pack of players caught up to Anthony alone last season. And so far in 2012-13, the group has been far more productive. The Nuggets have proven the exception to the NBA axiom that the team getting the best player in a deal usually wins; they got so much talent in return for Anthony, headlined by a quality starter in Gallinari, who has provided nearly 80 percent of Anthony's value during a campaign that has seen him make good on his obvious potential.

The other key to the trade for Denver was a player considered a throw-in at the time. While the Nuggets fought to get Mozgov from New York, it's the other 7-footer they acquired -- Koufos, who came from Minnesota largely for cap purposes -- who has become an anchor in the middle. Koufos, coming off a career-high 22 points and 10 rebounds Monday at Phoenix, is averaging 13.2 points and 10.6 rebounds per 40 minutes while shooting better than 60 percent from the field. At $3 million a year through 2014-15, Koufos is one of the league's best bargains.

The final piece for Denver is Chandler, who missed nearly all of last season because he went to China during the lockout and suffered a hip injury that required surgery shortly after his return. Finally healthy, Chandler is demonstrating why the Nuggets signed him to a five-year, $32 million deal as a restricted free agent last spring. Coming off the bench at both forward spots, Chandler is averaging 13.2 points and shooting 46.9 percent from 3-point range since the All-Star break. Denver is 21-7 this season with him in the lineup.

[h=3]How New York Won the Trade[/h]
The problem with assigning a winner and a loser to trades is that it ignores the possibility that two teams with differing goals both can come out ahead. Such is the case with the Nuggets and Knicks. While a deep, balanced roster has made Denver difficult to beat playing a fast pace at altitude, a star-focused approach is more appropriate for New York. After striking out on the biggest names on the market in summer 2010, the Knicks needed a centerpiece to complement Amar'e Stoudemire. Anthony has provided just that.

There are a couple of reasons why the WARP comparison is insufficient to evaluate New York's end of the deal. One is the opportunity provided by clearing Billups off the books just after the lockout. That gave the Knicks enough cap space to sign Tyson Chandler, who has provided 16.8 WARP in nearly two seasons in New York. (Note that 2011-12 WARP figures are prorated to a full 82-game schedule.)

Together, Anthony and Chandler make more than all six Nuggets acquired in the trade. Of course, that's not a major problem for the deep-pocketed Knicks, another difference between the two teams. New York has been able to go well into the luxury tax to surround Anthony with role players, including Felton, who returned to the Knicks in a sign-and-trade deal last summer. (Conversely, one of the players New York got in the Anthony trade, Corey Brewer, now comes off the bench for the Nuggets.) The lure of playing in New York also has helped the Knicks fill out their roster. They signed ex-Denver guard J.R. Smith, a New Jersey native, on the cheap.

There are limitations to New York's strategy. In large part, the Knicks are built with aging role players, making the injuries suffered by veteran big men Marcus Camby and Rasheed Wallace and Jason Kidd's shooting slump somewhat inevitable during the course of an 82-game season. But compared to where New York was two seasons ago -- fighting just to get to the playoffs for the first time in seven years and hoping to lure a superstar at some point in the future -- it's hard to argue with where the Knicks are now.

If New York suffers, it's largely in comparison to Denver. The Nuggets had enough talent on hand to be positioned well, no matter what they did with Anthony. Getting such a good haul in return only enhanced their prospects. In the past two-plus seasons, Denver has won at a .635 clip, better than Anthony's last 2½ years with the Nuggets (.629) and good for sixth in the NBA in that span. The Knicks have won 56.5 percent of their games since the trade, which ranks 11th.

The perception of Denver and New York this season is shaped by the way the two teams started. As the Knicks were winning 14 of their first 18 games behind hot 3-point shooting, the Nuggets were suffering against a road-heavy slate. Through Dec. 6, New York had a 4½-game edge in the standings. Denver has made that up entirely and stands three games ahead of the Knicks (one in the loss column).

Unfortunately for the Nuggets, there's one trade they can't make with New York -- conferences. While the Knicks lead the Indiana Pacers by percentage points for second in the East, Denver is stuck in fifth in the West. As hot as they've been, the Nuggets haven't made up any ground on the Memphis Grizzlies, who also are 9-1 in their past 10 games. So unless the Los Angeles Clippers stumble, Denver will have to go on the road in the opening round. As a result, the Nuggets might come up empty in the playoffs again. If that happens, don't blame the Anthony trade.

HacheMan · Mar 13, 2013

Howard dazzles against Magic

By Neil Tardy, Special to ESPN.com

Is Dwight Howard Superman again? And if so, would that make Ricky Rubio the Bizarro Superman of fantasy hoops?

First, D12. In the name of small sample size, I don't want to make too much of Howard's homecoming in Orlando. But what if he could make free throws at this rate all the time? In front of a jeering throng, Howard was sent to the line 39 times -- tying his NBA single-game record for attempts -- and actually got in a groove. After starting 2-of-9, Howard went 23-of-30 the rest of the way, including eight straight to end it.

[h=4]TUESDAY, MARCH 12[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]LaMarcus Aldridge, Trail Blazers: 28 points (10-19 FG), 10 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 blocks versus Grizzlies.
Dwight Howard, Lakers: 39 points (25-39 FT), 16 rebounds and 3 blocks versus Magic.

Ricky Rubio: Timberwolves: 21 points (9-17 FG), 13 rebounds and 12 assists versus Spurs. [h=5]Lowlights[/h]Kevin Garnett, Celtics: 5 points (2-10 FG) and 2 rebounds versus Bobcats.
Manu Ginobili, Spurs: 7 points (2-10 FG) versus Timberwolves.
Brandon Jennings, Bucks: 4 points (2-7 FG), 5 assists and 5 rebounds versus Mavericks.


We all know that 49 percent foul shooting -- and even after Tuesday, that's what he's done from the line this season -- doesn't cut it. But what could we really live with as far as Howard and free throws? If he made, say, 64.1 percent (because that's what 25-of-39 comes to), would he be a late first-round pick? If he actually reached 70 percent, does he become a top-five player for fantasy?

Perhaps it's a pointless exercise. Howard could certainly go back to clanking foul shots for the rest of the season. But if, between Kobe Bryant's relentless badgering, the disdain of fans and media and perhaps even his own self-reflection, he's actually reached new-found levels of maturity, humility and professionalism, Howard would be unreal in the fantasy game.

By the way, over his past four games, Howard is averaging 24.8 points, 16.3 rebounds, 4.0 blocks and 2.0 steals. Maybe it's just his back is feeling better.

[h=3]Looking back[/h]
• Now, point two: When it comes to sources of fantasy frustration, is there anything that legitimately compares to Howard and free throws? How about Rubio and field goals? Like Howard at the line, Rubio improbably got rolling from the field on Tuesday. Facing some guys in San Antonio Spurs uniforms (but not Tim Duncan, Kawhi Leonard or Tony Parker), Rubio produced his first career triple-double: 21 points, 13 boards and 12 dimes. Most welcome was the fact the Spaniard went 9-of-17 from the floor. Rubio's obviously healthy now, and his numbers since the All-Star break are preposterous: 12.5 points, 9.1 assists, 6.7 rebounds and 3.3 steals. However, in his 10 games prior to Tuesday, Rubio shot just 34.0 percent, or approximately 5 percent below the level of freaking horrible.

Same question though: For next season, what could we live with from Rubio? I know he doesn't take that many shots (11.2 per game since the break), but it's enough to matter. Forty percent seems like a good line with him. If he can manage that with everything else he does, Rubio looks like a top-25 player -- at least -- for next season.

• Don't overlook the actionable fantasy news involving the Los Angeles Lakers: Pau Gasol could return to practice next week. Reading between these lines, a healthy Gasol likely still won't approach the numbers we're accustomed to seeing from him. But now we're talking Pau Gasol the fantasy free agent as opposed to Pau Gasol the borderline first-rounder. He's worth a shot, and he's available in more than half of ESPN.com leagues.

• As for the rest of Tuesday's action, I'll make this quick. Joe Johnson (heel) and Ryan Anderson (illness) sat out, while Zach Randolph (19 points, 10 rebounds), Larry Sanders (4 blocks, 12 rebounds) and Ersan Ilyasova (7 points, 3 steals) returned to action. And to those owners who snared Tobias Harris (17 points, 15 rebounds, 3 3-pointers, 3 blocks), kudos.

[h=3]Looking ahead[/h]
• Apparently it's awkward homecoming week in the NBA, because Carmelo Anthony makes his return to Denver on Wednesday. While Melo is prepared to play through pain, you'll want to check for updates on his knee.

• DeMarcus Cousins (thigh) didn't practice on Tuesday. Between that and a possible suspension for elbowing Mike Dunleavy, Cousins is highly questionable to face the Chicago Bulls. Meanwhile, Brandon Knight (ankle) and Paul Millsap (knee) are unlikely to play for their respective teams. Paul Pierce, who was given Tuesday night off in Charlotte, should return for the Celtics, who host the Toronto Raptors.

• Jermaine O'Neal should play for the Phoenix Suns, who visit the Houston Rockets. Given the amount of practice time O'Neal missed while tending to his daughter during her recovery from heart surgery, the 34-year-old might not get a lot of minutes on Wednesday. But with Marcin Gortat out, J.O. is an excellent add for the near term. If you're looking for an immediate stat boost, Marco Belinelli seems worth using, as he faces a Sacramento Kings team that allows a league-worst 105.1 points per game. The injury-riddled Bulls have leaned on Belinelli, who's topped 40 minutes in four straight games. Both he and O'Neal are available in more than 80 percent of ESPN.com leagues.

HacheMan · Mar 14, 2013

[h=1]Filling category needs[/h][h=3]Help for those looking for help in 3-pointers, steals, rebounds[/h]
By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

Context. Establishing a clear one is imperative when making any judgment call. For example, if you're attempting to formulate an opinion about "The Wire" and its place in the pantheon of great television shows based solely upon the pilot episode, you don't have appropriate enough context to make that judgment. But once you're a few seasons in, have had a chance to witness the tapestry of characters weaved by the writers, watch Omar make hoppers scatter and Lester work the wire (had to do it), you can make an educated decision.

This need for context applies to roster decisions in fantasy hoops. If you're attempting to decide whether to add a player, it's impossible to evaluate without appropriate context of the needs of your team and landscape of your specific fantasy league. Especially this close to the finish, where needs are even more magnified and the fantasy playoffs are approaching in many leagues, you can no longer go with the method of simply adding the best available player on the waiver wire.

That being said, evaluate your needs and address them in a targeted fashion. In roto leagues, this doesn't merely mean pinpointing which category you're ranked lowest and adding the player who has provided the most in that category over the past month. It means look at the standings, identify which areas you have the best chance to improve in and which you can't afford to sacrifice, as well as which positions you need to fill and where you can afford to start new roster additions. In head-to-head, analyze your upcoming schedule and past weeks and craft a strategy that is very specific to your team and opponents. Only if you do this type of upper-level roster analysis will you have the proper context to evaluate the validity of potential free agent acquisitions.

Here are some widely available players contributing in 3s, rebounds and steals who may help your team, depending on the context:

[h=3]3-pointers[/h]

Wright

Dorell Wright, SF, Philadelphia 76ers (10.4 percent owned): One of the more frustrating players in both fantasy and actual basketball, Wright has seen his numbers decline steadily since his wondrous 2010-11 season in which he averaged 16.1 points, 2.4 3-pointers, 1.5 steals and 0.8 blocks per game for the Golden State Warriors. But he's showing glimpses of that potential once again, averaging 13.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.5 3s, 1.3 steals and 0.4 blocks per game in eight March contests with at least three 3s in eight of his past 12 contests. One thing is clear about Wright: He's a willing gunner who averages 7.5 3-point attempts per 40 minutes, the same frequency as prolific 3-point shooters such as Kyle Korver and J.J. Redick. He'll put up some clunkers and doesn't provide the defensive peripherals he once did, but he is locked in right now, averaging the most minutes, points, rebounds, field goal percentage and 3s per game of any month this season. He's benefited from Nick Young's absence, but Young returned Wednesday and played just six minutes compared to Wright's 22, so Doug Collins seems to be riding the hot hand. Wright also has increased value in turnover leagues, since he rarely attempts to create for himself despite the fact he possesses some athleticism, he averages just 0.9 turnovers per game and is ranked 56th on the 15-day player rater if you include turnovers.

Meeks

Jodie Meeks, SG, Los Angeles Lakers (1.1 percent owned): I thought Meeks would thrive in Mike D'Antoni's system. Although it took most of the season for the coach to figure out how to use him, Meeks has improved as of late, averaging 11.0 points and 2.4 3s in 28.4 minutes per game over his past five contests. He should see increased run and looks after Kobe Bryant badly sprained his ankle Wednesday and is out indefinitely. Meeks' aggregate stats have dipped this year, but he's boasting a better PER, true shooting percentage and usage rate while cutting his attempts between 16 and 23 feet from 1.9 per-40 minutes to 0.8 per-40 minutes when compared to last season. Of the 51 players averaging at least 1.6 3s per game, Meeks and Shane Battier are the only two owned in fewer than 2 percent of ESPN leagues. Perhaps the most promising aspect of his splits is the fact he was already playing a season-high 27.0 minutes per game this month even before Kobe's injury. He's a consistent 3-point threat, with at least one trey in 10 of his past 11 contests, and now that he's getting more run and Kobe is sidelined, Meeks could easily average over two 3s per game going forward.

[h=3]Rebounds[/h]

Bogut

Andrew Bogut, C, Golden State Warriors (46.5 percent owned): He's struggled to find his offensive game in the six games since returning from a back injury, averaging just 4.0 points per game. But Bogut has posted sterling defensive statistics in that span, averaging 9.5 boards, 1.7 steals and 1.5 blocks per game. Despite another disappointing season dampened by injuries, Bogut's total rebound rate, assist rate, PER and true shooting are better than last season, so even though he's not dependable to be on the floor a week from now, he's been effective when playing. And he's playing right now. With Festus Ezeli and Andris Biedrins his primary competition for minutes, Bogut should get all the run his achy body can handle as the Warriors attempt to hold onto their playoff bid. Bogut is reportedly not on a minutes restriction even in back-to-back games, illustrated by his season-high 32 minutes played Wednesday. He's the most talented and potentially-impactful widely-available player out there, especially in boards and blocks, and should be owned in every format as long as he's on the court.

Davis

Ed Davis, PF/C, Memphis Grizzlies (7.8 percent owned): Davis was a legitimate starter in 12-team formats before the trade to Memphis limited his value, as he averaged 13.9 points on 54.7 percent shooting with 8.1 rebounds, 1.0 blocks and 0.4 steals per game in 14 January contests. After the trade, he averaged just 4.1 points and 1.8 rebounds in 9.6 minutes per game for the Grizzlies in February, but is averaging 22.4 minutes per game in March with Darrell Arthur sidelined and Zach Randolph having missed several games. Davis is averaging 10.2 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.4 blocks and 1.0 steals per game in his past five contests, and he even put up 14 points and nine boards in 25 minutes Tuesday in the game in which Randolph returned, a positive indication about his role with the squad going forward. He did play just 14 minutes compared to Randolph's 40 Wednesday, but it was during a critical game against the Los Angeles Clippers, and Davis was still the only bench big to see the floor. If he can get consistent run as the primary big off the bench, Davis can provide helpful production with effective scoring, rebounding, and a handful of steals and blocks. He was widely dropped after the trade to Memphis but is worth adding again now that he's cracked Lionel Hollins' rotation.

[h=3]Steals[/h]

Miles

C.J. Miles, SG/SF, Cleveland Cavaliers (11.4 percent owned): Miles is typically viewed as just a scorer, and he's had some impressive flashes doing so this season. In December, Miles averaged 14.9 points per game, and he's scoring well lately, with double-digit points in 11 of his past 12 contests. But where he's upped his game most in recent weeks in the steals department: his career mark of 0.7 steals in 19.5 minutes per game is solid, but nothing special, but he's averaging 1.8 steals per game this month. Miles also has three 3-steal games in his past eight contests and seems to be maturing as an all-around player. His PER of 14.97 is a career-high, and despite a dip in minutes from last season, his total rebounding rate, true shooting percentage and usage rate have all increased. Now that Kyrie Irving is sidelined, he's often the primary scoring option when on the court, and should see a bump in minutes since the Cavs will need his offense. Based upon how he's been accruing steals, Miles is surfacing as an option for more than just points, and with a legitimate second category, he is roster-worthy in all formats if you want both.

Garcia

Francisco Garcia, SG/SF, Houston Rockets (0.1 percent owned): I've always had a soft spot for Garcia in a fantasy sense. Perhaps it's the fact he once averaged over one steal, one block and one 3-pointer per game, a nearly-impossible task for a guard-eligible player. Or maybe it's because he's only averaged 30 minutes per game once in his career, so he constantly leaves me feeling unsatisfied, yet tantalized at the same time. Garcia has once again become fantasy relevant despite his minor role on the Rockets, averaging 1.5 3s, 1.8 steals and 0.5 blocks in just 16.5 minutes per game over his past four contests. The best asset of his game is the ability to contribute in a unique combination of categories, especially as a guard, and right now he's racking up steals -- his 5.01 steals per 48 minutes this month is best of any player averaging at least 15 minutes per game. He won't provide many traditional stats, but if you're set in points, rebounds and assists and need a glue player to help in other categories in deep formats, Garcia has produced whenever he's getting minutes.

HacheMan · Mar 14, 2013

Most improved 2nd-year big men

Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris now flourishing in sophomore campaigns

By Bradford Doolittle | Basketball Prospectus

Among the two dozen players who changed teams at the Feb. 21 trade deadline, no one has benefitted from his change of scenery more than Orlando's Tobias Harris.

Coming off a strong showing last summer, Harris looked like the Bucks' long-term answer at small forward. A "tweener" coming out of Tennessee, Harris was consigned to the 3 position on a Milwaukee roster clogged with more frontcourt players than any other team in the NBA. Unfortunately, Harris couldn't overcome his lack of a consistent outside stroke and averaged less than five points per game in a bit role before being traded.

[h=4]Big Man Barometer[/h]Two-Week Span of Feb. 26-March 12

Rank Big Man Team Pct.
1 Joakim Noah CHI .764
2 Kevin Durant OKC .742
3 Blake Griffin LAC .739
4 LeBron James MIA .732
5 Kosta Koufos DEN .713
6 Marc Gasol MEM .686
7 Tim Duncan SAS .661
8 Brandan Wright DAL .658
9 Serge Ibaka OKC .657
10 David West IND .656

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>
Ranked by Winning Pct. (minimum of 60 minutes as center or power forward). For more Barometer details, click here.


Harris' season was reset at the deadline when he was shipped to the Magic in the six-player trade that sent J.J. Redick to Milwaukee. Since arriving in Orlando, Harris has played both forward positions and has flourished in his first extended shot at a full-time role. He's played 30 minutes per game for the Magic, averaging 15.6 points and 7.4 boards. His PER has jumped from 13.1 to a robust 19.5, and, best of all, he's hit 12-of-29 3-point shots.

Because of his use in Milwaukee, Harris doesn't qualify as a big man under the definition we've been using in the Barometer, which would require 570 frontcourt minutes this season. (Harris has barely played that many minutes altogether.) However, if he did qualify, he would rate as one of the league's most improved second-year bigs. No, he's not a "big man" in the traditional sense, but as a rangy, athletic combo forward who may be discovering his outside shot, Harris is the kind of versatile, positionless performer who every team needs in today's game. And as a still-raw player with loads of upside, he's just the kind of guy Orlando needs to be hording at this stage of its rebuilding project.

With Harris as our inspiration, here's a look at this season's most improved second-year big men among Barometer qualifiers (ranked by Winning Percentage improvement over rookie season).

1. Marcus Morris, Phoenix Suns (.491 winning percentage, plus-.273 improvement)

It would have been hard for Morris to not improve upon his shaky rookie season, but he's played much better in 2012-13. Like Harris, he's flourished after a deadline trade. Morris went just 2-for-17 from 3-point range in his first season, but is shooting 39.4 percent from deep this season on a high volume of attempts. Since being acquired by the Suns, his PER has jumped from 12.2 with Houston to 18.9 with Phoenix.
<OFFER></OFFER>

2. Tobias Harris, Orlando Magic (.512, plus-.085)

If being a stretch 4 was simply a matter of hitting 3-pointers, any shooter could do it. But you've got to hold your own on the boards and on the defensive end to make it work. Harris has averaged 8.9 boards per 36 minutes since the trade, and his defensive rebounding percentage has jumped by more than 8 percent.

3. Tristan Thompson, Cleveland Cavaliers (.496, plus-.074)

Thompson still lacks polish on the offensive end, but he's improved his field goal percentage from .439 to .491 while emerging as one of the most talented offensive rebounders in the league. Those gains have held true even since frontcourt mate Anderson Varejao went down for the season, and Thompson's defensive rebounding has gained steam without the big Brazilian around to hoard boards.

4. Greg Smith, Houston Rockets (.503, plus-.064)

Smith is an efficient player with little skill away from the basket. His metrics might be exaggerated by the system he plays in and the talent around him, though he certainly has raw NBA-level ability. Smith has spent time with Houston's D-League affiliate this season and his performance and playing time have gradually dipped as the season has progressed.

5. Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic (.508, plus-.054)

Vucevic has gained a lot of notoriety as one of the league's breakout players in his first season with the Magic, which will happen when you average 25 rebounds against the defending champs. His emergence is a twist of the knife for Sixers fans who have watched Andrew Bynum sit on the bench in street clothes all season. He's also an abject lesson about why you should pay attention to per-minute stats. Vucevic is certainly improved, but his per-rata rookie numbers were strong enough that his emergence is far from shocking.

6. Enes Kanter, Utah Jazz (.516, plus-.051)

Jazz fans nervous about a possible post-Al Jefferson era have to be sleeping better after Kanter's play this month. He's averaged 15.5 points and 9.5 rebounds in six games while shooting 68 percent from the floor. That's 68 percent! His wins above replacement for the month would translate to more than 10 for the full season, which would mark him as one of the top 30-35 players in the league. He did this in the preseason as well, but then when opening night rolled around, Kanter was somewhat buried in Utah's deep frontcourt rotation.

7. Derrick Williams, Minnesota Timberwolves (.439, plus-.008)

Williams' second season is basically a dead ringer for his first except that he's shooting the 3-ball just a little better. (But not well.) So far, his NBA career remains a disappointment, and it's not encouraging that he hasn't been able to take advantage of Kevin Love's absence.

Honorable Mention: Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets (.569, minus-.096)

The Manimal's efficiency is down a bit from his rookie season, but he remains by far the top overall second-year big man in the league. In fact, he's become a brand. The decline in metrics -- his PER is down as well -- is traced to a dip in shooting percentage as he's attempted to expand his offensive repertoire. Otherwise, his per-game numbers are up simply because he's played more minutes in his second season.

Besides Faried, other Barometer qualifiers who have posted a worse winning percentage in their second NBA season are Markieff Morris, Lavoy Allen, Ivan Johnson, Bismack Biyombo, Chris Singleton, Gustavo Ayon and Greg Stiemsma.

Here's a look at the top 25 big man projections for the two-week periord of March 18-31:

[h=4]Fantasy Projections for 3/18-31[/h](Qualifiers played at least 60 minutes at center or power forward last two weeks; minutes based on usage over last 10 games)

No. PLAYER POS GP FG% 3M REB AST STL TO BLK PTS SCORE TOTAL
1. LeBron James SF 4 .555 1.5 9.7 8.8 2.1 3.7 1.2 32.9 29.5 117.8
2. Kevin Durant SF 4 .503 2.2 9.1 5.5 1.8 3.9 1.5 32.9 26.9 107.4
3. LaMarcus Aldridge PF 5 .473 0.0 10.1 3.1 1.1 2.2 1.4 22.9 17.4 86.8
4. Al Horford C 4 .560 0.1 13.3 3.9 1.3 2.2 1.6 21.3 19.9 79.5
5. J.J. Hickson PF 5 .544 0.0 13.2 1.5 0.9 2.4 1.0 15.9 14.5 72.6
6. Brook Lopez C 4 .519 0.0 8.7 1.6 0.7 2.2 2.4 23.4 18.1 72.5
7. Carmelo Anthony SF 4 .442 2.0 6.1 3.2 0.9 2.8 0.5 28.2 18.1 72.4
8. Marc Gasol C 4 .497 0.0 9.8 4.4 1.2 2.4 2.4 18.2 16.8 67.0
9. David West PF 4 .485 0.1 9.7 3.7 1.2 2.4 1.3 20.2 16.5 66.1
10. Josh Smith PF 4 .463 0.9 11.1 4.7 1.5 3.2 2.3 20.5 16.5 65.9
11. Joakim Noah C 4 .472 0.0 14.0 4.1 1.5 3.1 2.8 15.3 16.4 65.8
12. Al Jefferson C 4 .494 0.0 10.5 2.3 1.0 1.4 1.3 20.7 16.3 65.3
13. Paul Millsap PF 4 .498 0.2 8.9 3.0 1.5 2.0 1.1 18.6 15.5 62.2
14. DeMarcus Cousins C 4 .464 0.0 12.7 3.0 1.8 3.3 0.9 19.3 15.4 61.6
15. Kevin Garnett C 4 .499 0.0 9.4 3.1 1.4 2.1 1.1 19.2 15.3 61.1
16. Tyson Chandler C 4 .658 0.0 13.0 1.1 0.8 1.7 1.5 14.0 15.1 60.6
17. Andre Iguodala SG 4 .453 1.5 6.7 6.5 2.1 3.1 0.8 16.7 14.6 58.5
18. Chris Bosh PF 4 .524 0.2 8.0 1.8 0.9 1.9 1.3 17.9 14.6 58.3
19. Thaddeus Young SF 4 .525 0.1 7.9 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.0 17.4 14.5 58.1
20. Serge Ibaka PF 4 .571 0.2 9.7 0.7 0.4 1.8 3.6 15.8 14.5 57.9
21. Zach Randolph PF 4 .469 0.1 12.3 1.7 1.0 2.2 0.5 17.9 14.2 56.7
22. Blake Griffin PF 3 .552 0.1 10.5 4.2 1.5 2.6 0.7 21.9 18.6 55.9
23. Ersan Ilyasova PF 4 .452 1.5 8.9 2.3 1.3 1.4 0.6 16.7 13.4 53.8
24. Luol Deng SF 4 .426 1.1 7.4 3.2 1.2 2.3 0.6 18.0 13.4 53.4
25. Carlos Boozer PF 4 .472 0.0 11.1 2.2 1.1 2.4 0.5 19.1 13.4 53.4

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>

HacheMan · Mar 14, 2013

Upset Kobe Bryant has ankle sprain

By Dave McMenamin | ESPNLosAngeles.com

ATLANTA -- Los Angeles Lakers star Kobe Bryant is out indefinitely with a severe left ankle sprain suffered in Wednesday night's 96-92 loss to the Atlanta Hawks, the team announced.

X-rays were negative.
Bryant would not speculate whether he would play Friday against the Indiana Pacers, but he left Philips Arena on Wednesday walking with a limp but without the aid of crutches.
The Lakers do not practice on Thursday. Bryant's regiment for the day? "Compression. Ice. Django. Zero Dark Thirty. This is Forty and 1 hour of sleep. #countonwill #countonhaters. On to the next," he tweeted.
Bryant, who had 31 points, seven rebounds and five assists in the Lakers' 96-92 loss to Atlanta, landed awkwardly after taking a baseline jumper that would have forced overtime if it had gone in with 3.9 seconds remaining.
Bryant appeared to land on Dahntay Jones' foot and twisted his left ankle, crumpling to the court in pain. No foul was called.

[h=4]Tale Of Two Halves[/h]

Despite his poor shooting in Wednesday's loss to the Hawks, Kobe Bryant still has been stellar since the All-Star break, as his per-game averages and percentages have improved in nearly every category. [h=4]<CENTER>Kobe Bryant's Per-Game Stats Before and After the All-Star Break</CENTER>[/h]

	Pre All-Star	Post All-Star
Games	54	12
PPG	26.8	30.3
FG pct	46.4	49.2
RPG	5.3	6.4
APG	5.6	7.0
-- ESPN Stats & Information

After the game, Bryant said referees need to do a better job protecting shooters from defenders who go underneath them while shooting.
"As defensive players, you can contest shots, but you can't walk underneath players," Bryant said. "That's dangerous for the shooter."
Bryant later tweeted: "#dangerousplay that should have been called. Period."
Jones responded via Twitter: "Tape doesn't lie. Ankle was turned on the floor after the leg kick out that knocked him off balance. I would never try to hurt the man.
He later added: "Leg kick that makes contact with a defensive player is an offense foul. Period. The nba changed that rule 2 yrs ago. Stop it!"
Bryant and Jones have a history. The Hawks' swingman was called for a flagrant foul for tripping Bryant in Game 4 of the 2009 Western Conference finals when he played for the Denver Nuggets.
The play jogged Bryant's memory even further than that, all the way back to Game 2 of the 2000 NBA Finals when he played just seven minutes after landing on then-Indiana Pacers guard and current ESPN NBA analyst Jalen Rose's foot.
"He Jalen Rose'd me," Bryant said of Jones on Wednesday night.
Rose admitted on "The Jalen Rose Show," a podcast on ESPN.com's Grantland Network, back in September that he purposely stepped under Bryant.
"I can't say that it was an accident," Rose said.
A reporter asked Bryant if he felt like Jones' play was "deliberate."
"I don't ever want to put that on somebody, I really don't," Bryant said. "I just think players need to be made conscious of it and I think officials need to protect shooters. Period."
Deliberate or not, Bryant was upset that Wednesday likely was the Lakers' final game against the Hawks this season.

"I can't get my mind past the fact that I got to wait a year to get revenge," he said.
Jodie Meeks subbed in for Bryant with 2.6 seconds left to play after he fell to the floor, at which point Bryant approached the official on the sideline.
"He instructed (Lakers trainer) Gary (Vitti) to come out onto the court and he came out there on the court, which then takes me out of the game permanently; I can't go back in," Bryant said. "So that was just a miscommunication I was having a conversation with the official about."
Lakers forward Earl Clark also suffered a sprained right ankle in the first half and did not play after exiting the game early in the third quarter. X-rays on Clark's ankle were negative, and he is day to day.
"It didn't swell up real big," Clark said. "I can walk, I didn't need crutches, so it feels pretty good. I'll be ready to go on Friday."
The Lakers (34-32) are a half-game ahead of the Utah Jazz (33-32) for the eighth and final Western Conference playoff spot.

HacheMan · Mar 14, 2013

Hibbert continues all-around production

By Seth Landman, Special to ESPN.

Roy Hibbert had a huge night for the Pacers in a win over the Timberwolves Wednesday night, finishing with 27 points on 10-for-15 shooting from the floor and 7-for-8 shooting from the line, to go along with 12 rebounds and four blocks. Hibbert struggled offensively in the first half of the season, but seems to have righted the ship. He's shooting 54 percent since the All-Star break.

[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
[h=4]WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Stephen Curry, Warriors: 31 points (11-for-17 FG, 4-for-4 FT, 5-for-7 3-pointers), 8 assists versus the Pistons.
Tyreke Evans, Kings: 26 points (11-for-13 FG), 5 rebounds, 7 assists, 3 steals, 1 block versus the Bulls.
Thaddeus Young, 76ers: 24 points (11-for-20 FG), 15 rebounds, 3 assists versus the Heat.
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Carmelo Anthony, Knicks: 9 points (3-for-12 FG), 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block versus the Nuggets.
Al Jefferson, Jazz: 8 points (4-for-13 FG), 7 rebounds, 1 block versus the Thunder.
Joakim Noah, Bulls: 6 points (3-for-8 FG), 9 rebounds, 3 assists versus the Kings.


• The early returns were encouraging, but of late it seems that J.J. Redick won't be the great source of assists for the Bucks that he was with the Magic. He had just one in 28 minutes off the bench in a loss to the Wizards Wednesday night, and he's down to about 3.0 per game since the trade after averaging 4.4 with the Magic. While that might not sound like much of a drop, it's a big difference in fantasy leagues. For now, it's a tough break for his owners, and it would make me knock him down a bit in the rankings for next season.

• Jason Terry had a productive night for the Celtics with 12 points, including three 3-pointers, and seven assists in a win over the Raptors. Terry has been a great fantasy player in the past, and with Rajon Rondo out of the lineup, there continues to be the opportunity for Jet to rack up assists. He's averaging 4.5 in his past six games, so if you're in need of 3s and assists, Terry is worth your consideration.

• Will Bynum had a nice night for the Pistons off the bench, putting up 16 points, 4 assists and 3 steals in 28 minutes. The Pistons lost to the Warriors in Oakland, but if Brandon Knight continues to miss time because of his injured ankle, Bynum is capable of some decent numbers in his absence. He's always worth playing if he can get somewhere close to 30 minutes, and that will be the case as long as Knight is out.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• A few key injuries to track for the Thursday night matchup between the Spurs and Mavericks in San Antonio: Shawn Marion will be out for the Mavs and Tony Parker will be out for the Spurs, and the Mavs' Darren Collison and Spurs' Kawhi Leonard are both questionable. Based on the Mavs' last outing, I'd be tempted to play Mike James if I were desperate for assists. He has a lot of experience, and had seven assists against the Bucks on Tuesday night. On the Spurs' side, Cory Joseph looked good Tuesday night against the Timberwolves, but played just 26 minutes, and it's too hard to predict how coach Gregg Popovich will use him this time around.

• It's not exactly injury-free in New York City, either. The Knicks face off against the Trail Blazers, and could be missing Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler, both of whom left Wednesday night's loss to the Nuggets with knee injuries. Their status is uncertain, but as always, when the Knicks' top guns are injured, you want to make sure J.R. Smith is in your lineup. You may also want to play Iman Shumpert, who has scuffled of late but managed 20 points, including four 3-pointers, on Wednesday night. LaMarcus Aldridge is questionable for the Blazers, but if J.J. Hickson is already in your lineup, I can't think of anyone else I'd rather plug in.

[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
Once again, I'm going to go with J.R. Smith. The Trail Blazers aren't exactly a defensive juggernaut these days, and even on an off night against the Nuggets on Wednesday, Smith managed 15 points, 5 rebounds, 8 assists and a couple of 3s. He's as good a bet as any to have a big night Thursday.

HacheMan · Mar 17, 2013

Portland Trail Blazers among top Fastbreak options

By Tom Carpenter
ESPN.com

You know that moment when you wake up in a cold sweat because you had a horrific nightmare, but then you realize it wasn't real and take in a deep settling breath of air? That's what happened to me this morning. It's a nightmare I'm willing to bet that most of you have had at one time or another. The dream was that I woke up on April 18 -- and the nightmare began as soon as I remembered that it was the day after the NBA regular season and fantasy hoops campaign had ended on April 17. I quickly began bemoaning the fact that there would be no more fantasy hoops decisions to make for another six months.
Fortunately, the nightmare didn't last long, because I awoke and quickly remembered that it's still just March 15 and that we are fortunate enough to have more than a month of games remaining in the fantasy hoops campaign. After I shook off that nightmare, I came to the conclusion that I must take full advantage of this second chance to savor the final weeks. I recommend that you do the same and make sure you do everything you can to move up in your standings or up the Fastbreak leaderboard as the season winds down.
Taking a quick look at the Week 21 schedule, the Los Angeles Lakers are the only team that plays just twice. That should give Kobe Bryant some extra time to rest his sprained ankle, but it means that you'll have to sit the red-hot Dwight Howard. On the flip side, the Portland Trail Blazers have the final five-game week remaining in the NBA season. That means that Damian Lillard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and J.J. Hickson are basically must-starts over all but the absolute elite players, and Wesley Matthews is a quality value at $8.3 million, if he can shake off his leg injury over the weekend.
Let's take a look at some of the other good value plays available this week, so you can plug in the best lineup possible and avoid waking up on April 18 in a cold sweat of regret.
Guards
Monta Ellis (9.1), Milwaukee Bucks: It's been 10 games since Ellis scored fewer than 20 Fastbreak points, and he has topped 30 in each of his past two games. Bucks backcourt-mate Brandon Jennings has slumped a bit over the past week, and though I think he remains a solid play in Week 21, Ellis appears to be a steadier play and will cost you $600K less. The Bucks roll four times this week, three times next week and then finish out with back-to-back four-game weeks. That means you may end up dropping him for Week 22 before riding him as the season comes to an end.
J.R. Smith (8.6), New York Knicks: It's always a shaky proposition rolling long term with Smith, because he is such a streaky shooter. That manifests itself more when he has a limited role, because he has to earn his shots in that situation. Right now, of course, he has an increased role because Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire are sidelined, so he has been cranking out 20-plus Fastbreak points per game most nights. The streakiness still shows on occasion -- like the minus-1 point game he had against the Golden State Warriors on Monday -- but overall, Smith provides plenty of upside at a reasonable price and has a tasty Week 21 schedule: UTA, ORL, TOR, TOR. Plus, as I've noted in recent weeks, the Knicks play full four-game stretches throughout the final month of games.
Ricky Rubio (7.0), Minnesota Timberwolves: I'm not sure I've recommended the same three guards in back-to-back weeks all season, but there's no getting around the fact that Ellis, Smith and Rubio are on top of their games and have excellent schedules as the season winds down. Rubio, in particular, is a great value, because his absence earlier this season has kept his market value way down. He's playing terrific points-league ball right now, though, with 29 and 35 FB points in his past two games. He clearly remains the best value in Fastbreak and likely will continue in that role for the rest of the season as the Wolves play four games each week the rest of the way.
Forwards
Thaddeus Young (9.0), Philadelphia 76ers: We've seen Young tearing things up over the past couple of weeks, and it's not a fluke. He's a versatile baller, and that is reflected in a diverse fantasy game that provides quality production in field goal percentage, scoring, rebounds and hustle stats. That's made him a beast in points leagues of late, as he's scored at least 23 Fastbreak points in each of his past four games, including big games of 33 and 39 FB points. At this stage of the season, it seems that coach Doug Collins has no choice but to feed Young the rock in order to remain competitive as a team, and as long as that continues, Young is going to be a terrific value in the Fastbreak game and points leagues in general.
Dirk Nowitzki (8.6), Dallas Mavericks: He is definitely showing his age, as he lacks the game-to-game consistency that was a standard part of his production when he was younger. Still, despite some single-digit and low-teens Fastbreak scoring performances sprinkled in here and there, he remains capable of popping off games in the upper 20s and even 30s (31 and 28 FB points in his past two games). We may see a dud from him in Week 21, but with pretty friendly matchups against the Hawks, Nets, Celtics and Jazz, Nowitzki should be a solid play. He's definitely an excellent value at his $8.6 million contract.
Martell Webster (7.6), Washington Wizards: Webster was playing well even before the Wizards' backcourt was hit hard by injuries. Since then, though, he has really taken flight. In fact, during his past three games, Webster has tallied 21, 17 and 25 Fastbreak points. He has a tasty schedule in Week 21 (CHA, PHO, LAL, GSW), so even if Bradley Beal returns, Webster should continue to produce well. He's only owned in 22 percent of ESPN leagues, but since the Wiz play four games each of the next three weeks, he is an excellent waiver-wire addition in all points leagues.
Center
Brook Lopez (9.0), Brooklyn Nets: Lopez continues to be an excellent points-league big man because he continues to take a good number of field goal attempts and bangs down a ton of them. In seven games this month, he has averaged 13.1 field goal attempts per game and has hit 57.6 percent of them. Add to that an 83.3 percent success rate on 4.3 free throw attempts per game and 2.1 BPG, and Lopez proves to be a genuine beast in points leagues. The Nets only run three times each of the next two weeks, so Lopez figures to be a short-term play during his four-game Week 21 stretch, but he provides plenty of value at $9 million.
Larry Sanders (8.5), Milwaukee Bucks: You'll be hard-pressed to find a better value among the bigs than Sanders. He missed a game Sunday with a sore knee, but he looked no worse for wear upon his return, as he racked up 24 FB points in each of his two games since then. Over his past 14 games, he's been locked in as an 11-point, 11-rebound, 3.4-block beast, and so long as his knee doesn't act up again, there is no reason to think he's going to slow down from that pace.

HacheMan · Mar 17, 2013

[h=3]Old Man Duncan still getting it done

By Josh Whitling, Special to ESPN.com

Many, including myself, expected a significant drop-off in the second half from Tim Duncan after he averaged 17.2 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.8 blocks prior to the All-Star break. And although he recently sat out the second game of a back-to-back because of his sore knee, he appeared just fine while dropping 28 points and 19 rebounds Thursday on the Mavericks. He's averaging 15.6 points, 10.6 rebounds and 2.1 blocks in 11 games since the break, a slight dip in production, but not as substantial as many predicted. He's averaging 17.7 points, 11.0 rebounds and 2.3 blocks in six games since Tony Parker went down with a sprained ankle, and based on the 29.8 minutes per game he's averaging in March, it looks like Pop (coach Gregg Popovich) will give him the occasional game off instead of limiting his in-game action. Hopefully you didn't sell him at a discount anticipating a disappointing stretch run, as he's still ranked No. 8 on the Player Rater when sorting by averages, and appears primed to retain his fantastic numbers in games when he's not being rested.

<H3>Looking Back</H3>
[h=4]THURSDAY, MARCH 14[/h]

[h=4][/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Tim Duncan, Spurs: 28 points (12-for-20 FG, 4-for-5 FT), 19 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block.
Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers: 26 points (11-for-18 FG), 10 assists, 4 3-pointers, 2 steals.
LaMarcus Aldridge, Trail Blazers: 22 points (8-for-15 FG, 6-for-6 FT), 10 rebounds, 5 blocks, 2 assists, 1 steal.
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Jason Kidd, Knicks: 3 points (1-for-8 FG), 2 assists, 1 steal.
O.J. Mayo, Mavericks: 10 points (4-for-11 FG), 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal.
Raymond Felton, Knicks: 11 points (4-for-12 FG), 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals.


• Mike James started at point guard for the Mavericks for the fourth straight game, finishing with 10 points, 5 assists and 2 3-pointers. This is coming off a 13-point, seven-assist game Tuesday, and even though there's not much upside here, while he's starting he'll provide some 3s and assists for deep leagues.

• With Tyson Chandler, Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire all sidelined, Kenyon Martin, Marcus Camby, Kurt Thomas and Chris Copeland all got increased playing time. Copeland's increase is especially intriguing from a fantasy sense, as the 28-year-old rookie is averaging 0.8 3s per game in just 12.2 minutes. Anthony got his knee drained and is expected to return soon, but likely will be handled gingerly as the team prepares for a playoff run, so even though Copeland had just nine points and two 3s in 21 minutes Thursday night, he could be a bountiful source of 3s in the next several weeks if he continues getting more playing time.

• Gary Neal scored 16 points off the bench for the Spurs for the second time in the past three games, but he's averaging just 14 minutes per game this month, with two DNPs. Based on his solid career per-minute stats of 9.6 points and 1.5 3s in just 21.4 minutes per game in his three-year career, it seemed like he'd see a bump in production with Parker sidelined. But he has been used too inconsistently to be depended upon in fantasy leagues, which is really the case for all of the Spurs' point guards; nobody has surfaced as a consistent fantasy player in Parker's absence.

<H3>Looking Ahead</H3>
• With Andrea Bargnani out for the remainder of the season, Jonas Valanciunas has seen an uptick in minutes, playing 33 and 34 minutes, respectively, in the past two games. The 34 minutes matched his season high, and with the Raptors looking toward the future, he should continue to get plenty of minutes, with foul trouble being the biggest impediment to him logging 30-plus per game on a regular basis. I could see 12 points, 8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game from here on out, and he'll be a popular add in fantasy leagues the next week or two if he keeps getting this kind of playing time.

• John Wall has been balling this week, averaging 25 points and 12 assists in his past two contests. He's reportedly still getting back into game shape after missing so much time to start the season, but he's poised for a strong finish. His scoring has jumped from 13.3 points per game in February to 18.6 this month, and he's ranked 19th on the Player Rater the past 15 days. If he's on your team and you're evaluating what to expect going forward, pencil him in for top-30 stats, as he's shouldering a significant load for the Wizards and using the final part of the season to prove he deserves mention among the` league's top point guards.

• We get a first look at the Kobe-less Lakers on Friday. Jodie Meeks should start in Bryant's place and see an increase in value, as detailed in this week's Working the Wire. Pay close attention to how those 20 shot attempts per game are distributed, however, because that's a lot of touches to go around. Antawn Jamison, Steve Blake, Metta World Peace and Earl Clark are all worth monitoring as the Lakers try to figure out how to compensate for the loss of their best player and focal point of the offense.

• Jermaine O'Neal is back for the Suns after missing four games for personal reasons, and now figures to see plenty of minutes with Marcin Gortat likely out for the rest of the season. I'd be surprised if he wasn't starting in the middle for the Suns soon, and he's primed to be a major source of blocks down the stretch, as his 3.65 blocks per 48 minutes ranks eighth in the league among those averaging at least 15 minutes per game. I could see eight rebounds and two blocks per game from here on out, numbers worthy of a roster spot in any two-center league.

• The status of both Jeff Teague and Josh Smith are uncertain for Friday's game against the Suns. Devin Harris scored 17 points and had seven assists in Teague's absence, and both Anthony Tolliver and Johan Petro got an increased run with Smith sidelined. Ignore Tolliver and Petro, but if Teague is going to miss any more time, Harris is a legit option for points, assists, 3s and steals.

[/h]

HacheMan · Mar 18, 2013

Rising fringe players to target

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com

It's been a busy week for sports fans, and at this stage of the NBA season, fantasy basketball has perhaps taken a back seat to NCAA brackets and fantasy baseball drafts.

But with about a month left to play in the NBA regular season, there is still plenty of hoops left. As we inch closer to the end of the season, you will notice some major movement in the Top 130 rankings as injuries and hot/cold streaks carry more weight in a shorter time span.

Savvy fantasy owners, however, will pay closer attention to the movement near the bottom of the list. Making the right moves on the waiver wire is essential at this point in the season, and fringe players will play a major role in determining your league's champion. Here's a look at some fringe players who have turned it on over the past few weeks:

• Philadelphia's Spencer Hawes is a frustrating player to own because he's incredibly inconsistent, but he's also quite valuable when he's got it going -- and he's definitely got it going right now. Posting averages of 15.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 2.2 blocks per game over his past five contests, Hawes is a must-own player for the stretch run. We've seen him go on hot streaks like this before only to come crashing back down to earth a few weeks later, but there's a pretty good chance that he'll be able to continue playing at this level the rest of the way.

• Kyrie Irving's injury was disastrous for many fantasy owners, but it also opened the door for a few Cavaliers to step up in his absence, most notably Dion Waiters and Shaun Livingston. Waiters has had an up-and-down season but is a very nice option for points, steals and 3-pointers, especially with Irving out for an extended period of time. Waiters is averaging 18.1 points, 0.8 steals and 0.9 3-pointers in 11 games since the All-Star break. Livingston also has played very well in Irving's absence, averaging 13.7 points, 5.7 assists and 1.7 steals in 34.0 minutes per game over his past three contests. With those kind of minutes, Livingston deserves a look if you're in need of assists and steals.

• If you need scoring or a boost in free throw percentage, look no further than Charlotte's Gerald Henderson, who has been lighting it up with aggressive play since the All-Star break. Henderson has been on the Top 130 list for a few weeks of late, but fantasy owners are just starting to warm up to him after he posted 22.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.0 steals while shooting 94.4 percent in 7.2 attempts from the free throw line over his past five games. As a fantasy player, Henderson is a little one-dimensional, but he's just the type of specialist who can pay dividends this late in the season.

• Speaking of specialists, those who need a late-season boost in steals or 3-pointers should definitely take a look at Miami's Mario Chalmers. Averaging 9.7 points, 3.7 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.8 3-pointers in 15 games since the All-Star break, Chalmers is doing enough in steals and 3s to make up for his lack of production everywhere else. He won't be consistent on a nightly basis, but he can certainly help you gain ground in two of the more scarce categories in fantasy hoops.

• As he nears closer to returning to the Lakers, Pau Gasol has been one of the most added players in ESPN.com leagues over the past week. For as bad of a season as Gasol has had, he was still averaging 13.4 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.3 blocks per game before going down with a foot injury. The injury-riddled Lakers have incentive to get Gasol back on the court quickly given their tenuous hold on the last playoff spot in the West, so I expect to see him back sooner rather than later despite the minor setback he suffered over the weekend. Those owners who are rolling the dice with Gasol should be aware that he'll probably need a week or two for his conditioning to round back into shape.

• Those in need of rebounds or blocks may want to consider Nuggets center Kosta Koufus. Koufos was on the Top 130 list a few times earlier this season, and he's turned it on again, averaging 12.0 points, 9.4 rebounds and 1.4 blocks over his past five games. He's posted a double-double in two of his past three games and may have earned some additional playing time due to his solid play in recent action.

• Washington's Martell Webster is as hot as can be with 21.8 points and 4.8 3-pointers per game over his past five contests, but his value may be short-lived if Bradley Beal and Trevor Ariza can return from their respective injuries. Still, Webster is lighting up the scoreboard at the moment, and he deserves to be picked up even if he comes back down to earth in a week or two.

• I usually like to scour the most dropped list as this point in the season to see if there are any values to be found. A few names that jumped out at me this week were Danny Green (64.3 percent owned) and Marcus Thornton (78.0 percent owned). Green may have had a couple of poor performances in a row, but this is a player who has averaged 12.5 points, 1.4 steals and 2.5 3-pointers in 13 games since the All-Star break. If he was dropped in your league, get him now! We discussed Thornton last week, and I am concerned about his relative lack of minutes, but he's still managed to post 17.7 points and 2.8 3-pointers per game since the All-Star break.

HacheMan · Mar 18, 2013

Should you invest in Eric Gordon for '13-14

By Tom Carpenter, ESPN.com

As the 2012-13 NBA regular season winds down, most of our focus is on working the waiver wire and setting the best possible lineups for head-to-head playoffs and the stretch run of rotisserie leagues. However, it's never too soon to look ahead to next season for teams in keeper leagues. One of the more intriguing players to project for the 2013-14 campaign will be New Orleans Hornets guard Eric Gordon, whose body hasn't proved capable of holding up to the NBA grind.

Gordon still is not allowed to take part in back-to-back games and has played as many as 32 minutes in just a handful of contests this season. The upside for Gordon is that the Hornets are limiting him now with the hope that he'll enter next season at full strength and return to his career average of 35 minutes per game and solid all-around stats. Not surprisingly, in his limited and inconsistent role, his statistical contribution has been equally limited and inconsistent. To wit, he scored seven points with no 3s, three dimes and two steals Sunday night after scoring 20 points with two 3s, no assists and one steal the game prior.

On the other hand, he has scored at least 20 points in 12 of his 29 games this season, and his 3-pointers and assists are similar to his typical production. I think it's safe to assume that if he can somehow get and stay healthy, Gordon will return to the production we were used to seeing from him during his tenure with the Los Angeles Clippers. As a full-time starter who plays 35-plus minutes, he should shake off those inconsistencies, which should boost his field goal percentage from this season's 40.6 back up to the 45 percent range, and we should see him attack the lane and bump his free throw attempts up from 4.5 per game closer to six-plus per game.

Considering his inability to stay healthy at all the past four seasons, though, there is no way I can say with any certainty that he'll be able to suddenly start doing so next season. He is still young (24), though, and wouldn't be the first player to shake off the injury bug as his body matures. After all, Grant Hill is still playing in the NBA. Assuming he doesn't have a setback between now and the fall (and isn't traded), I would be comfortable drafting him in the sixth or seventh round if the rest of my team is not prone to injury. I think that's about where the balance of risk and reward will start to pay off.

As for the remainder of this season, he likely will sit out Monday night since he played Sunday, but the Hornets don't have another back-to-back set until April 9-10, so it's possible that he could get into a rhythm over the next 10 games, which would help fantasy teams during the stretch run this season and do a lot to ease our minds about drafting him next season.

[h=3]Looking back[/h]
• Both Nikola Pekovic and Andrei Kirilenko returned to action (and the starting lineup) Sunday. Pek had 13 points (5-8 FG), 6 boards and 2 blocks in 24 minutes, while AK47 had 8 points (3-6 FG), 5 boards and 2 blocks in 24 minutes. The Minnesota Timberwolves play four-game weeks throughout the fantasy hoops playoffs, so their return to action couldn't have been better timed. Also of note is that Derrick Williams scored 28 points (9-16 FG) with 3 3s, 7 boards (and, ouch, 5 turnovers) Sunday. We'll have to see how things roll once Pekovic and Kirilenko settle in, but it appears that Williams may continue as an effective scorer until or unless Kevin Love returns.

• Initially, Caron Butler was expected to miss about a week due to his strained left elbow, but he made a quick return to action Sunday after skipping just one game. Against the Knicks, Butler had 14 points (5-9 FG), 4 3-pointers, 5 rebounds and an assist. Unlike Hill above, Butler is an example of a guy who never was able to shake the injury bug and a good reason we should all remain skeptical about Gordon's ability to do so.

• Detroit Pistons fans long hoped to see Amir Johnson develop into a reliable double-double threat. Unfortunately for them, it took eight years, including four with a different team. But sure enough, at age 25, Johnson has averaged 13.6 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 1.6 bpg and shot 60.0 percent from the field in nine games this month. That includes Sunday's 18-point, 18-rebound performance and Friday's 12-point, 21-rebound outing. He is dialed in, and with Andrea Bargnani out of the picture, Johnson should remain a double-double threat for the remainder of the season.

[h=3]Looking ahead[/h]
• It sounds like Derrick Rose could return to game action at any moment, which means you will want to check for updates on Rose as game time nears this evening. I'd prefer to wait to see him play a game or two before inserting him into my lineups, but if the choice is Rose in his first game back or some random scrub off waivers, I'd take Rose. The Bulls play four times in Week 21.

• The Los Angeles Lakers, on the other hand, play only twice this week, and considering the health of Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, they will be lucky to take part in one game during that stretch. Kobe is doubtful for Monday due to his sprained ankle, while Gasol already has been ruled out for Monday and will have an ultrasound Tuesday on his ailing foot. That means more playing time for Earl Clark, Jodie Meeks and Antawn Jamison, but with just two games this week they don't offer anything significant to those of us in weekly-lineup leagues.

• It's not clear if Carmelo Anthony or Tyson Chandler will be ready to ball Monday evening against the Utah Jazz. Chandler appears more likely to roll than Melo, but you'll need to check for updates later in the day. Like the Wolves above, the Knicks hit the hardwood four times throughout the fantasy playoffs, so they both offer excellent long-term upside if they can just get healthy. As it stands now, owners will have a tough weekly lineup call to make tonight.

[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
Russell Westbrook had a little down stretch recently when he failed to score 20 Fastbreak points in four straight games. Fortunately for fantasy teams, he quickly shook it off and has since responded with FB games of 25, 26 and 35. On Tuesday, he gets a good matchup at home against the Denver Nuggets, a team that he torched for 34 Fastbreak points the last time they met. I'll definitely have Westbrook in my Fastbreak lineup on Tuesday.

HacheMan · Mar 19, 2013

[h=1]Free throw impact[/h][h=3]High-volume, efficient free throw shooters who also hit 3s very valuable[/h]By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com
If you're reading this, I'm assuming you're still in contention in your league(s). Congratulations.

Now I want to help you win by sweating some of the little details on your behalf.

I'll readily admit that an in-depth examination of the fantasy ramifications of performance at the free throw line lacks a certain sizzle.

Don't forget that in standard eight-category leagues, free throw percentage accounts for 12.5 percent of your league's total scoring output. Just as much as points scored or blocked shots.

Last week, I used a homegrown stat -- Field Goal Impact -- to help delineate which NBA players had the biggest positive or negative net effect on your team's field goal percentage.

This week, I've expanded the search to free throw percentage.

Field Goal Impact uses a formula that accounts for the volume of shots while also folding in Effective Field Goal Percentage to account for 3-point performance. The Field Goal Impact (FG%I) formula looks like this:

(eFG%-league average eFG%) * (FGA/gm)/(League average FGA/gm)

We can easily alter and simply the formula to use free throw statistics:

(FT%-league average FT%) * (FTA/gm)/(League average FTA/gm)

It's a simpler formula because we don't need to account for the additional factor of 3-point shot versus 2-point shot performance. (A free throw is a free throw.)

What's the idea of Free Throw Impact (FT%I)?

By accounting for volume of attempts, fantasy owners are able to get a better idea of how much an individual player is helping or hurting his or her team.

I'll give you a player by way of example. How about Carmelo Anthony?

Anthony ranks 39th in the NBA in free throw percentage at 82.8 percent. Not bad, but barely in the top 40. However, Anthony ranks fifth overall in free throw attempts per game at 7.7.

Anthony's Free Throw Impact formula looks like this:

82.8%-75.5% * 7.7/2.1 = 26.7

The result; Anthony ranks sixth in the NBA in Free Throw Impact. His better-than-average free throw percentage is positively amplified by his high volume of attempts.

Here's a quick snapshot of the top 10 performers in Free Throw Impact for the season, measured against their rank in Free Throw Percentage.

FT%I RK FT% RK DIFF PLAYER TEAM PPG FT%I FT% %PTS (FT)
1 1 0 Kevin Durant, SF OKC 28 68.20 90.9% 30.1%
2 19 17 James Harden, SG HOU 26 47.62 85.5% 22.9%
3 31 28 Kobe Bryant, SG LAL 28 29.64 83.8% 32.9%
4 5 1 Chris Paul, PG LAC 17 29.08 89.7% 23.5%
5 2 -3 Stephen Curry, PG GS 22 27.32 90.6% 15.3%
6 39 33 Carmelo Anthony, SF NY 28 26.77 82.8% 23.2%
7 16 9 Eric Gordon, SG NO 17 22.83 85.7% 23.0%
8 30 22 Ramon Sessions, PG CHA 14 22.80 83.9% 33.2%
9 4 -5 Kevin Martin, SG OKC 14 22.63 89.9% 20.7%
10 3 -7 Darren Collison, PG DAL 12 22.25 90.1% 23.3%

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>

It's simple. Very good free throw shooters who get to the line at a higher frequency are rewarded, while elite free throw shooters who rely more on outside shooting are penalized.

Kevin Durant, who leads the league in free throw percentage (90.9 percent) and is second in attempts per game (9.4), dominates both rankings.

Free throws are the No. 1 reason Durant still leads LeBron James by a healthy distance on the Player Rater.

Despite LeBron's lethal effectiveness from the field, LeBron is a shade below the league- average free throw percentage (75.1 percent versus 75.5 percent). When you factor in his 7.0 free throw attempts per game (seventh in the NBA), his net Free Throw Impact is -1.33. A small net negative.

(By the way, do you see the column at the far right? %PTS (FT)? That's what percentage of a player's overall scoring comes from free throws. It's a stat I imported from my favorite new toy of this NBA season, the stats.nba.com page. I can sit down at that page, blink, and find that 45 minutes just passed.)

Let's take a look at some players outside of the top 10 who rose the most when comparing Free Throw Impact versus free throw percentage:

FT%I RK FT% RK DIFF PLAYER TEAM PPG FT%I FT% %PTS (FT)
13 32 19 DeMar DeRozan, SG TOR 18 21.09 83.7% 25.7%
14 28 14 Kyrie Irving, PG CLE 23 20.30 84.2% 18.0%
17 33 16 Gordon Hayward, SG UTAH 14 17.96 83.7% 26.7%
20 36 16 Tony Parker, PG SA 21 17.27 82.9% 19.4%
23 37 14 John Wall, PG WSH 15 16.56 82.9% 24.6%
26 43 17 Danilo Gallinari, SF DEN 16 15.00 82.2% 23.8%
27 57 30 Russell Westbrook, PG OKC 23 14.67 79.9% 24.1%
30 45 15 Gerald Henderson, SG CHA 14 12.57 82.1% 24.3%
38 55 17 LaMarcus Aldridge, PF POR 21 11.43 80.4% 18.7%

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>

There are a couple of players here who show hidden efficiency despite hurting their teams in field goal percentage. John Wall and Russell Westbrook are two of the NBA's weaker 3-point shooters, but owning either will help owners at the free throw line.

LaMarcus Aldridge makes a rare big man appearance on this list. As a group, power forwards and centers tend to be middling to poor free throw shooters and get to the line less often than wings or guards. (The highest-ranking center in Free Throw Impact is Marc Gasol, who ranks 15th. Dirk Nowitzki is the highest-ranking power forward at 25th.)

Now let's look at the players who do the highest amount of damage to your team's free throw percentage.

FT%I RK FT% RK DIFF PLAYER TEAM PPG FT%I FT% %PTS (FT)
117 116 -1 Greg Monroe, C DET 16 -17.38 68.2% 21.3%
118 110 -8 Kevin Love, PF MIN 18 -19.19 70.4% 30.3%
119 121 2 Al Horford, C ATL 17 -20.71 60.5% 10.2%
120 120 0 Kenneth Faried, SF DEN 12 -22.02 61.9% 17.8%
121 117 -4 Blake Griffin, PF LAC 19 -24.10 66.3% 19.4%
122 122 0 Andre Iguodala, SG DEN 13 -29.47 57.3% 15.3%
123 123 0 Omer Asik, C HOU 10 -39.43 54.8% 13.7%
124 124 0 Josh Smith, SF ATL 17 -48.10 49.6% 11.2%
125 125 0 Dwight Howard, C LAL 16 -117.41 48.7% 27.4%

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>

By and large, these are the same players at the bottom of the NBA in overall free throw percentage. But check out the devastating blunt-force trauma Dwight Howard registers upon fantasy teams.

Howard's Free Throw Impact is what happens when you combine the last-place player in free throw percentage (49.0 percent, 125th out of 125) with the third-place player in free throw attempts (9.2 per game). It's a statistically staggering effect. Not even owning Kevin Durant can cancel him out.

(This underscores why I hate punting categories. The longest- running debate of my fantasy writing career has been over whether or not Howard is worth a first-round pick. You can certainly win with Howard, but it leaves no room for error.

When a high-end, flawed player like Howard gets injured or begins to struggle in another category, his value drops through the floorboards. That's why despite some strong recent performances, Howard is still only 79th on the Player Rater for the season.)

Here are the players who sank the most when comparing Free Throw Impact to free throw percentage:

FT%I RK FT% RK DIFF PLAYER TEAM PPG FT%I FT% %PTS (FT)
32 12 -20 Martell Webster, SF WSH 11 12.34 86.3% 18.5%
35 9 -26 Ray Allen, SG MIA 11 12.00 87.5% 16.9%
40 26 -14 Jarrett Jack, PG GS 13 11.14 84.5% 16.4%
41 20 -21 Jimmy Butler, SF CHI 7 10.84 85.4% 27.1%
46 17 -29 Andre Miller, PG DEN 9 10.10 85.6% 19.3%
47 11 -36 Klay Thompson, SG GS 17 9.86 86.4% 9.6%
50 25 -25 Ryan Anderson, PF NO 17 9.10 84.6% 11.0%
55 41 -14 Vince Carter, SG DAL 13 8.54 82.4% 16.0%
56 34 -22 Luke Ridnour, PG MIN 12 8.10 83.6% 13.8%

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>

None of these players have a negative impact overall. Any will help out a fantasy team at the line. They just get dinged due to a low amount of free throw attempts. It's the opposite of the risers list; a lot of players who rely on 3-point production for their scoring.

Finally, here are some players currently available in most fantasy leagues with the most dramatic Free Throw Impacts. And to give you a more immediate snapshot of their impact, I based these numbers on only the past two weeks' worth of statistics.

PLAYER FT% FT%I
Gerald Henderson, Cha SG, SF 93.5% 49.72
Martell Webster, Wsh SF 95.0% 23.21
Ray Allen, Mia SG 91.7% 23.17
Chris Copeland, NY SF 91.7% 23.17
Alonzo Gee, Cle SF, SG 86.4% 16.13
Jeff Green, Bos SF, PF 81.5% 11.16
Jason Thompson, Sac PF, C 81.0% 9.19
Rodney Stuckey, Det SG, PG 80.0% 7.7
Marreese Speights, Cle PF, C 76.9% 2.46
Gerald Wallace, Bkn SF, PF 68.0% -15
Wilson Chandler, Den SF, SG 63.2% -15.87
Devin Harris, Atl PG, SG 61.9% -16.86
Tiago Splitter, SA PF, C 65.4% -17.78
Brandan Wright, Dal PF, C 43.8% -34.87
Reggie Evans, Bkn PF 41.7% -64.22

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>

Head-to-head owners looking for a quick fix on the boards, take note. While Reggie Evans can help you win the rebounding battle, he just might sneak up on your free throw percentage when nobody's looking and cost you the war.

HacheMan · Mar 19, 2013

Bynum will have to earn fantasy trust

<CITE class=byline>By Tom Carpenter, ESPN.com

The Philadelphia 76ers announced at halftime of Monday's game that Andrew Bynum will undergo surgery on both of his knees and, as had long been expected, miss the remainder of the season.

"After many months of rehabilitation and consulting with numerous doctors, Andrew and the doctors treating him determined that this is the best course of action at this point," 76ers general manager Tony DiLeo said. "We will continue to monitor and evaluate his status moving forward."

Moving forward is going to be tricky for both Bynum and the Sixers, because we simply don't know what to expect from the oft-injured big man, who didn't play in even one game this season. The exact nature of his surgery is not clear, but he will have to prove himself healthy this summer in order to warrant a new contract as an unrestricted free agent.

It seems likely that he may have to sign a one-year deal or an incentive-laden contract to show that he still has a future in the NBA. At this point, there is little reason for fantasy teams to hold onto the big fella as a keeper for next season. And unless he looks close to 100 percent next fall, he should be an afterthought in your 2013-14 drafts.

[h=4]MONDAY, MARCH 18[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Jeff Green, Celtics: 43 points (14-21 FG, 10-13 FT), 5 3-pointers, 7 rebounds, 2 steals, 4 block against the Heat
Gerald Henderson, Bobcats: 27 points (8-16 FG, 10-11 FT), 8 assists versus the Wizards
Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers: 27 points, 5 3-pointers, 7 rebounds, 7 assists against the 76ers
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Avery Bradley, Celtics: 7 points (3-11 FG), 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers versus the Heat
Luke Ridnour, Timberwolves: 6 points (2-10 FG), 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 turnovers against the Grizzlies
Evan Turner, 76ers: 2 points (1-8 FG), 3 rebounds, 4 assists versus the Trail Blazers

[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
IMPORTANT: ESPN received a very late stat correction from the Elias Sports Bureau that awarded three points to Damian Lillard for the game the Portland Trail Blazers played against the Memphis Grizzlies on March 12. Since that game fell within our stat correction window and standard league playoffs started with Monday's games, we re-ran the league standings Monday rather than wait until Tuesday morning. This stat change may have altered some playoff matchups and/or seedings.

• Even though the Boston Celtics lost to the Miami Heat Monday, Jeff Green absolutely went off. He ended up with 43 points (14-21 FG, 10-13 FT), 5 3s, 7 boards, 2 assists, 2 steals and 4 blocks. He has been relatively inconsistent for the C's this season, primarily working off the bench, but this is the kind of all-around fantasy upside we can expect from Green when he plays full starter's minutes. There is a pretty good chance that his role will increase dramatically next season, depending on how the Celtics handle their offseason roster moves.

• Wilson Chandler is in a similar situation to Green, because Chandler also needs significant minutes and touches to make serious fantasy noise. On Monday, he played a season-high 39 minutes and torched the Chicago Bulls for 35 points (13-21 FG, 8-9 FT), 9 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals. Of course, he has proved to be inconsistent in his bench role, as he scored in single digits three times in his previous six outings.

• Nate Robinson is another example of a guy who needs big minutes to produce. He went off for 34 points (13-22 FG), 6 3s and 7 assists Monday. However, he turned the rock over seven times, and it appears that Derrick Rose could reclaim his starting PG job any day now. So ride Robinson while he is hot.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Ricky Rubio left Monday's game with about 15 minutes remaining due to a groin injury and did not return. He said afterward that he could have played, but coach Rick Adelman didn't want to risk it. The Minnesota Timberwolves have a couple of days off before they play again Thursday in Sacramento, so it sounds like he should be good to go, though you'll want to check for updates.

• Kobe Bryant sat out another game Monday due to his sprained ankle. However, coach Mike D'Antoni said "knowing Kobe," he will "probably" return to action Thursday against the Washington Wizards. However, since they don't play again until Monday, it's entirely possible that he will skip Thursday's game and aim to be back closer to full strength next week.

• Both Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler remained sidelined Monday. Anthony hopes to return soon, but time will tell whether he'll be ready for Wednesday's game with the Orlando Magic. Things appear a little sketchier for Chandler, though, as he will undergo an MRI on his troublesome neck on Tuesday. Clearly, the New York Knicks need him as healthy as possible for the postseason, so, depending on what the MRI reveals, they may not rush him back. Look for Kenyon Martin to continue starting in Chandler's stead, though he offers only modest fantasy upside.

• A sprained lower back kept David West from playing on Monday. Tyler Hansbrough started in place of West and had a solid outing with 18 points (6-12 FG, 6-7 FT) and 11 rebounds, though he literally failed to contribute another stat. It's unclear if West will be ready for Tuesday's game versus the Orlando Magic, but Hansbrough should be able to chip in some scoring and rebounding if West sits again.

[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]There are quite a few quality options across the board Wednesday with a full slate of NBA games. That includes Tim Duncan against the Golden State Warriors. However, I like the idea of using Nikola Vucevic against the Knicks as my Fastbreak center. I'm assuming that Chandler won't play, which means that Vuce will have an easier go of it in the paint against old-timer Martin. Vucevic is coming off a couple of big Fastbreak games, scoring 32 and 29 points.
</CITE>

HacheMan · Mar 20, 2013

Point guards on the rise for 2013-14

By Seth Landman | Special to ESPN.com

At this late stage in the season, it's often a good idea to start forming your opinions about players heading into next season -- and not just for keeper leagues. Some players might see their roles change down the stretch, but a player's performance over the bulk of a long season can have a lot more bearing on long-term success than a couple of weeks in March and April.

At one particular position, it seems like there's almost too much talent to believe. Eighteen of the top 50 players on the Player Rater are currently eligible at point guard, and some of those guys are not players you normally think of as elite NBA talents. Guys like Darren Collison and Goran Dragic are legitimately good players, but being a point guard tends to put an emphasis on certain stats -- such as assists, steals and 3-pointers -- that end up being of particular value in the fantasy game.

Here are some point guards who have taken a step forward with their games this season and are probably worth some added attention heading into next year's campaign.

(Overall Player Rater ranking in parentheses)

Teague

Jeff Teague, PG, Atlanta Hawks (22): Teague's average draft position (ADP) was just 83.4 coming into this season, and though his improvement isn't a shock, the degree to which he has risen is a bit startling. Consider that in roughly the same minutes, Teague is scoring more points even though he's shooting a slightly lower overall percentage. The numbers illustrate why: Teague's making a higher percentage of 3-pointers (up to a respectable 36.1 percent) and a higher percentage of free throws (88.8 percent on the same 2.8 attempts per game). Plus, he's finishing a higher percentage of his attempts around the rim while taking more 3s, which means he's taking higher-value shots.

While a lot of his numbers haven't significantly changed, the ones that have -- free throw percentage, made 3s and assists per game -- coincide with all of the reasons why he's quickly becoming one of the best point guards in basketball, and not just fantasy basketball. It wouldn't take much more improvement for Teague to be a top-20 player next season. Given that he'll probably use more possessions if Josh Smith leaves town, there's an argument to be made that Teague will be a solid second-round pick in most leagues.

Walker

Kemba Walker, PG/SG, Charlotte Bobcats (29): I never imagined Walker would be this good in the NBA, as I assumed his size and shaky jumper would make him a disappointment. His rookie season flashed everything that was good about him -- mainly his attacking style and willingness to score -- and everything that was bad -- including a 46.4 true shooting percentage. This season, he still has the same overarching problem -- terrible teammates -- but he's done a much better job finding his own game in the midst of what can at times be a terrifying lack of space to operate. He's finishing 55.5 percent of his shots at the rim per hoopdata.com, and while that's nothing to write home about, it's a whole lot better than the sub-50 percent number he posted last season. Meanwhile, he's taking and making more 3s and has gone from being so-so on defense (0.9 steals per game last season) to being a downright weapon (2.0 per game, fourth in the league).

Most exciting is that Walker still has a lot of room for improvement. He's becoming a more selective passer, as a higher percentage of his assists are leading to shots at the rim and behind the 3-point line, per hoopdata.com. Hopefully that means he'll be able to get more assists next season as, however slowly, the roster around him in Charlotte improves. He should be able to continue ratcheting up his minutes as well, and, like Teague, could work his way into the top 20 next season, though he probably projects to be more like a third-round pick.

Lin

Jeremy Lin, PG, Houston Rockets (35): Lin, perhaps more than any player, has a major disparity between his perceived value and his actual fantasy value, as it still seems that he's being thought of as a bit of a disappointment this season (even though he's been quite good). Slowly, as the season moves along, Lin is becoming the player the Rockets hope he can be, and that player happens to be really valuable in fantasy.

Paying attention to his pre- and post-All-Star splits is illustrative. Before the break, Lin averaged 12.6 points per game on 43.4 percent shooting. Since the break, in what is admittedly a small 12-game sample, he's up to 15.1 points per game on 47.5 percent shooting. Those latter numbers are really good, and show the same sort of combination of offensive production and efficiency that made his ascendency with the Knicks last season so exciting. Perhaps more importantly, Lin's shooting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc in February and March, which is good, because playing alongside another really great pick-and-roll operator in James Harden is forcing Lin to spot up more than was originally planned when the Rockets signed him. I'm a little worried that his steals have settled in at 1.4 since the break (down from 1.9 prior), but he passes the eye test for having really good hands and instincts in that area. As a result of his improved play, Lin's ranking (33rd) doesn't seem to be a fluke, even if he's got the rap of being a disappointment in some misguided circles.

Hill

George Hill, PG/SG, Indiana Pacers (44): Hill helped the Pacers beat the Magic on Tuesday night, finishing with 14 points on 6-for-11 shooting from the floor to go along with seven rebounds, two assists and two 3s in 31 minutes. Those numbers don't sound all that impressive, but that's what Hill gives you: solid numbers just about every night. Sure, he occasionally has bad games, but most nights Hill gives you a decent amount of points, rebounds and assists while chipping in a bit of 3s and steals. When you add it all up, you get a top-50 fantasy player.

What has been really nice about his performance this season is that we had never really seen a team rely on him as its sole option at point guard. Yes, the Pacers have a backup, but D.J. Augustin certainly doesn't inspire much confidence. Hill's minutes rose from 25.5 per game last season to 34.5 this season, and it's the first time he's ever played more than 30 minutes per game in his career. So the fact that he's coupled that playing time with career-highs in usage rate and assist rate means that he's producing at a much higher level than before. I never would have said this coming into this season, but Hill is clearly worth taking in the fifth round next season; and given the fact that he'll only be 27 years old at the start of next season, I might even reach into the fourth round to get him.

HacheMan · Mar 20, 2013

Navigating the Atlantic Division

By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider

We can essentially close the book on five of the NBA's six division races. Realistically, there's only one division race worth watching in the final month of the regular season: the Atlantic. The New York Knicks have been alone atop the division since Nov. 4, but a recent four-game losing streak has allowed the rival Brooklyn Nets to climb within a game of first place. And the Boston Celtics, who have dominated the Atlantic since 2007-08, are within striking distance of their sixth consecutive division championship, sitting 3½ games behind the Knicks.
So, with the help of 1,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, let's handicap each team's chances of winning the Atlantic.

<CENTER>
</CENTER>

[h=3]New York Knicks: 73.9 percent[/h]Surprised the Knicks' chances are still so high, according to the simulation? You probably should be, but first let's take a look at the reasons why New York remains the heavy favorite.
First, the simulation is built on point differential (adjusted for schedule), which means the gap between the Knicks and Nets is larger than it looks in the standings. New York has outscored opponents by 2.7 points per game, as opposed to 1.2 points per game for Brooklyn. On average, the Nets' point differential should translate into about 36 wins instead of their actual 39.
Second, the Knicks have the more favorable schedule the rest of the way. Taking into account location and opposition, New York's average opponent over the final 17 games is a point per game worse than league average. Boston's average opponent is 0.2 point per game worse than average, and Brooklyn's is 0.1 point worse than average.
In this short span, the overall difficulty isn't as important as the distribution of opponents. An average team would have about the same record against all three schedules (9-8 for the Knicks, 8-8 for the Celtics, 7-8 for the Nets). But the difficulty of Brooklyn's road becomes apparent when we consider how a slightly above-average team (good for 45 wins over the full season) would fare against all three schedules. That team would go 11-5 against Boston's remaining opponents and 11-6 against New York's, but just 7-8 against the teams the Nets have yet to face.
Of course, the question is whether we can peg the Knicks as a 45-win team, or even a .500 team, the rest of the way. Since Jan. 1, New York's schedule-adjusted point differential is a tick below league average. And the Knicks have been much worse recently, as injuries in the frontcourt have piled up. The key factor that differentiates my simulations from the Hollinger Playoff Odds is that the latter place a heavy premium on recent performance. As a result, the Hollinger Odds give Brooklyn a better than 1-in-3 chance of stealing the Atlantic.
In general, we can get carried away with overestimating the meaning of recent performance.

For all three teams, hot streaks have a tendency to be followed by slumps. The Knicks went through a similar trough around the All-Star break, losing four games in a row, but followed that up with an eight-game stretch during which their only losses were to Miami and Oklahoma City.
At the same time, we know there are real trends in the data, such as how much worse New York has been following its hot start to the season. Injuries to All-Stars Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler certainly qualify. The Knicks have outscored opponents by 6.5 points per 48 minutes with both Anthony and Chandler on the floor, per NBA.com/Stats. Without either player on the floor, New York has been slightly outscored, and that understates the magnitude of the situation. With veterans Amar'e Stoudemire, Kurt Thomas and Rasheed Wallace sidelined, the Knicks' post rotation could be down to Chris Copeland, Kenyon Martin, Steve Novak, a hobbled Marcus Camby and the cast of "Eddie."
Fortunately for the Knicks, Anthony may be able to return to the lineup Wednesday night against Orlando after having his sore right knee drained and giving his hamstring time to heal. Chandler avoided a serious knee injury when he went down awkwardly last week in Denver, but is still expected to miss another week due to a bulging disk in his neck. New York can't afford to have him out of action much longer if it wants to hang onto the division.

<CENTER>
</CENTER>

[h=3]Brooklyn Nets: 19.8 percent[/h]If the Nets are going to make their first playoff appearance since 2007 as division champions, they'll have to avoid the kind of missteps they've had the last week and a half. Brooklyn's playoff push includes a loss at Philadelphia on March 11 and a home defeat at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks on Sunday. During a three-game span that included a too-close-for-comfort win over the New Orleans Hornets between those losses, the Nets' defense surrendered more than 120 points per 100 possessions.
<INLINE1></INLINE1>
Brooklyn got back on track Monday night, demolishing the Detroit Pistons 119-82 in the opener of a seven-game road trip that could make or break their division hopes. Just two of the seven games are against teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended, but there are a number of tricky road foes like Dallas, Portland and Utah. Those kinds of toss-ups have enormous playoff ramifications.
Since taking time off before the All-Star break to undergo a last round of cortisone shots and platelet-rich plasma therapy on his ankles, Deron Williams has been terrific. He's averaging 23.4 points with a .623 true shooting percentage, up from .542 before the break. But the Nets' offense hasn't really budged because Williams' play has only served to offset Gerald Wallace's alarming post-break descent.
Wallace is averaging 7.8 points per 36 minutes (he hasn't been below 13.1 since his third NBA season) and is making 34.7 percent of his 2-point attempts and 14.3 percent of his 3s. With two nonscorers (Keith Bogans and Reggie Evans) already in the rotation, Brooklyn can't afford a third, so Wallace's ability to bounce back could be critical the rest of the way.

<CENTER>
</CENTER>

[h=3]Boston Celtics: 6.3 percent[/h]The problem for the Celtics is that playing well the rest of the season isn't enough to win the division. Boston will need both the Knicks and Nets to slump to have a chance. As poorly as New York has played since the All-Star break, the Celtics have gained just a game and a half in the standings in the past month. That won't be enough to let Boston finish atop the division.
At this point, seeding is more important for the Celtics, and there's better news there. In nearly a sixth of all simulations, Boston uses the manageable schedule to land a top-four seed and home-court advantage for the first round.

HacheMan · Mar 20, 2013

Monta Ellis stays hot

By Josh Whitling, Special ESPN.com

Monta Ellis continued his spectacular March, notching a near triple-double with 21 points, nine rebounds, eight assists, three steals, three blocks and two 3-pointers against the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday. This comes on the heels of a 39-point game on Sunday, and the most impressive aspect of his play this month is his efficiency, as he's shooting 52.4 percent from the field and 82.7 from the stripe.

He and Brandon Jennings, who has settled into more of the point guard role as of late and is averaging 10.8 assists per game this month, are finally gelling just before an offseason in which both will find themselves mired in uncertainty as both are restricted free agents. Ellis is one of the more criticized players among hoops heads, as his downward-trending field goal percentage since 2007-2008 and questionable decision-making leaves many feeling unsatisfied as he never seems to achieve his potential. He's playing to prove any critics wrong, however, as he's ranked fourth on the 15-day player rater and tenth on the 30-day player rater. Despite his flaws, his PER has improved since last season, and is primed to continue his fantastic finish that should carry into next season, since the stakes surrounding his contract are high over the course of the next year. His average draft position of 29.2 was accurate, as he's ranked No. 27 on the season player rater, although this past month demonstrates that he has the talent to be a top-20 player and could be worth an early third-round pick next season in what will likely be his final year until unrestricted free agency hits.

[h=4]TUESDAY, MARCH 18[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Wesley Matthews, Trail Blazers: 28 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 7 3-pointers
Andre Miller, Nuggets: 20 points (6-for-11 FG, 8-for-9 FT), 7 rebounds, 9 assists, 1 steal
Blake Griffin, Clippers: 26 points (11-for-14 FG, 4-for-4 FT), 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 1 block
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Jameer Nelson, Magic: 8 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist
Serge Ibaka, Thunder: 6 points, 2 rebounds, 3 blocks
Isaiah Thomas, Kings: 7 points, 3 assists, 2 steals


[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• Tyler Hansbrough notched his second-straight double-double Tuesday with David West sidelined to rest his strained lower back, scoring 14 points with 14 rebounds, a block and a steal in 27 minutes from the starting lineup. Psycho T should have increased value until at least Friday, when Frank Vogel hopes West will be able to return, and perhaps beyond that. Hansbrough doesn't provide much aside from points and rebounds when he does get run, although he hits his free throws and has the capability to notch double-digit boards anytime he starts. The Pacers will want West to be as ready as possible for the playoffs, so don't be surprised if Hansbrough's value remains augmented for the remainder of the regular season.

• Samuel Dalembert started at power forward with Ersan Ilyasova sidelined, scoring 16 points with seven rebounds in 20 minutes. It looks like Ilyasova might miss another few games, and anytime Dalembert is getting minutes he has value, as his 16.8 points, 14.0 rebounds and 3.4 blocks per-40 minutes indicate. If you're looking for excellent short-term value, Dalembert is a valid starting center while in the starting lineup, so monitor Ilyasova's status closely.

• Marcus Thornton exploded for 25 points with six 3's and four assists off the bench, continuing his strong post-All Star performance, as he's averaging 18.2 points and 3.1 3s per game over his past 14 contests. He's surfaced as a near must-start, with the ability to provide points and 3s in bunches, but he still isn't consistent, with three single-digit performance in his past five. This makes him riskier in weekly head-to-head formats, and a safer in roto leagues where the disappointing performances will be balanced out by nights like Tuesday. He's been dropped in 22.7 percent of leagues over the past seven days, which is a bit of an overreaction after a few rough outings, although if you're expecting the model of consistency from Thornton, his productivity will come in spurts.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• Kevin Garnett almost played Monday against the Miami Heat, so he will likely return against the New Orleans Hornets on Wednesday. This means Jeff Green, who has averaged 28.0 points in games without Garnett including a career-high 43 against the Heat on Monday, will come back to earth but is still an option in most formats. The best part about Green in a fantasy sense is the fact he's averaging 0.8 3-pointers, 0.8 blocks and 0.7 steals per game in just 26.2 minutes, so even if his scoring shrinks with Garnett in the lineup, he's providing enough peripherals to warrant a starting gig on most fantasy teams.

• Gordon Hayward is in the Utah Jazz starting lineup once again, and should have a huge night against the Rockets, who allow 103.3 points per game, second highest total in the league. This marks the second straight season in which Hayward has been significantly better after the All-Star break. as he's averaging 16.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.8 3s, 0.9 steals and 0.6 blocks per game, similar numbers to his strong late-season showing last year. I've been all-in on Hayward for a while, and think he'll be undervalued going into next season's draft due to the fact his season was plagued by uncertainty with his role on the team, and he missed a sizable chunk of time in the middle of the season, hurting his overall numbers. He has the tools to be a top-50 fantasy player, will be on my "to draft" list next season and is a mandatory start in all formats based on his play as of late.

• Dion Waiters might need surgery on his knee after an MRI revealed a piece of loose cartilage. There's no reason for the Cavs to push him this year, as his solid performance in the second half of the season helped to at least begin to validate their selection of him with the fourth overall pick, and Waiters is seemingly entrenched in the team's long term plans. With Kyrie Irving already sidelined, look for Daniel Gibson and Wayne Ellington to see increased value and join Shaun Livingston as unlikely but legitimate fantasy options for deep leagues down the stretch.

Player	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13	Total
Danilo Gallinari	1.2	4.2	5.8	11.3
Wilson Chandler	0.1	-0.5	0.6	0.1
Kosta Koufos	0.4	2.9	3.8	7.1
Timofey Mozgov	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2
Raymond Felton	1.2	-	-	1.2
Andre Miller	-	1.7	1.7	3.4
Jordan Hamilton	-	0.5	1.2	1.7
Denver Total	2.8	8.9	13.2	25.0
Carmelo Anthony	4.1	8.4	7.3	19.8
Chauncey Billups	2.6	0.0	0.0	2.6
Anthony Carter	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.3
Shelden Williams	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.4
New York Total	7.4	8.4	7.3	23.0

Rank	Big Man	Team	Pct.
1	Joakim Noah	CHI	.764
2	Kevin Durant	OKC	.742
3	Blake Griffin	LAC	.739
4	LeBron James	MIA	.732
5	Kosta Koufos	DEN	.713
6	Marc Gasol	MEM	.686
7	Tim Duncan	SAS	.661
8	Brandan Wright	DAL	.658
9	Serge Ibaka	OKC	.657
10	David West	IND	.656

No. PLAYER	POS	GP	FG%	3M	REB	AST	STL	TO	BLK	PTS	SCORE	TOTAL
1. LeBron James	SF	4	.555	1.5	9.7	8.8	2.1	3.7	1.2	32.9	29.5	117.8
2. Kevin Durant	SF	4	.503	2.2	9.1	5.5	1.8	3.9	1.5	32.9	26.9	107.4
3. LaMarcus Aldridge	PF	5	.473	0.0	10.1	3.1	1.1	2.2	1.4	22.9	17.4	86.8
4. Al Horford	C	4	.560	0.1	13.3	3.9	1.3	2.2	1.6	21.3	19.9	79.5
5. J.J. Hickson	PF	5	.544	0.0	13.2	1.5	0.9	2.4	1.0	15.9	14.5	72.6
6. Brook Lopez	C	4	.519	0.0	8.7	1.6	0.7	2.2	2.4	23.4	18.1	72.5
7. Carmelo Anthony	SF	4	.442	2.0	6.1	3.2	0.9	2.8	0.5	28.2	18.1	72.4
8. Marc Gasol	C	4	.497	0.0	9.8	4.4	1.2	2.4	2.4	18.2	16.8	67.0
9. David West	PF	4	.485	0.1	9.7	3.7	1.2	2.4	1.3	20.2	16.5	66.1
10. Josh Smith	PF	4	.463	0.9	11.1	4.7	1.5	3.2	2.3	20.5	16.5	65.9
11. Joakim Noah	C	4	.472	0.0	14.0	4.1	1.5	3.1	2.8	15.3	16.4	65.8
12. Al Jefferson	C	4	.494	0.0	10.5	2.3	1.0	1.4	1.3	20.7	16.3	65.3
13. Paul Millsap	PF	4	.498	0.2	8.9	3.0	1.5	2.0	1.1	18.6	15.5	62.2
14. DeMarcus Cousins	C	4	.464	0.0	12.7	3.0	1.8	3.3	0.9	19.3	15.4	61.6
15. Kevin Garnett	C	4	.499	0.0	9.4	3.1	1.4	2.1	1.1	19.2	15.3	61.1
16. Tyson Chandler	C	4	.658	0.0	13.0	1.1	0.8	1.7	1.5	14.0	15.1	60.6
17. Andre Iguodala	SG	4	.453	1.5	6.7	6.5	2.1	3.1	0.8	16.7	14.6	58.5
18. Chris Bosh	PF	4	.524	0.2	8.0	1.8	0.9	1.9	1.3	17.9	14.6	58.3
19. Thaddeus Young	SF	4	.525	0.1	7.9	1.8	1.9	1.4	1.0	17.4	14.5	58.1
20. Serge Ibaka	PF	4	.571	0.2	9.7	0.7	0.4	1.8	3.6	15.8	14.5	57.9
21. Zach Randolph	PF	4	.469	0.1	12.3	1.7	1.0	2.2	0.5	17.9	14.2	56.7
22. Blake Griffin	PF	3	.552	0.1	10.5	4.2	1.5	2.6	0.7	21.9	18.6	55.9
23. Ersan Ilyasova	PF	4	.452	1.5	8.9	2.3	1.3	1.4	0.6	16.7	13.4	53.8
24. Luol Deng	SF	4	.426	1.1	7.4	3.2	1.2	2.3	0.6	18.0	13.4	53.4
25. Carlos Boozer	PF	4	.472	0.0	11.1	2.2	1.1	2.4	0.5	19.1	13.4	53.4

FT%I RK	FT% RK	DIFF	PLAYER	TEAM	PPG	FT%I	FT%	%PTS (FT)
1	1	0	Kevin Durant, SF	OKC	28	68.20	90.9%	30.1%
2	19	17	James Harden, SG	HOU	26	47.62	85.5%	22.9%
3	31	28	Kobe Bryant, SG	LAL	28	29.64	83.8%	32.9%
4	5	1	Chris Paul, PG	LAC	17	29.08	89.7%	23.5%
5	2	-3	Stephen Curry, PG	GS	22	27.32	90.6%	15.3%
6	39	33	Carmelo Anthony, SF	NY	28	26.77	82.8%	23.2%
7	16	9	Eric Gordon, SG	NO	17	22.83	85.7%	23.0%
8	30	22	Ramon Sessions, PG	CHA	14	22.80	83.9%	33.2%
9	4	-5	Kevin Martin, SG	OKC	14	22.63	89.9%	20.7%
10	3	-7	Darren Collison, PG	DAL	12	22.25	90.1%	23.3%

FT%I RK	FT% RK	DIFF	PLAYER	TEAM	PPG	FT%I	FT%	%PTS (FT)
13	32	19	DeMar DeRozan, SG	TOR	18	21.09	83.7%	25.7%
14	28	14	Kyrie Irving, PG	CLE	23	20.30	84.2%	18.0%
17	33	16	Gordon Hayward, SG	UTAH	14	17.96	83.7%	26.7%
20	36	16	Tony Parker, PG	SA	21	17.27	82.9%	19.4%
23	37	14	John Wall, PG	WSH	15	16.56	82.9%	24.6%
26	43	17	Danilo Gallinari, SF	DEN	16	15.00	82.2%	23.8%
27	57	30	Russell Westbrook, PG	OKC	23	14.67	79.9%	24.1%
30	45	15	Gerald Henderson, SG	CHA	14	12.57	82.1%	24.3%
38	55	17	LaMarcus Aldridge, PF	POR	21	11.43	80.4%	18.7%

FT%I RK	FT% RK	DIFF	PLAYER	TEAM	PPG	FT%I	FT%	%PTS (FT)
117	116	-1	Greg Monroe, C	DET	16	-17.38	68.2%	21.3%
118	110	-8	Kevin Love, PF	MIN	18	-19.19	70.4%	30.3%
119	121	2	Al Horford, C	ATL	17	-20.71	60.5%	10.2%
120	120	0	Kenneth Faried, SF	DEN	12	-22.02	61.9%	17.8%
121	117	-4	Blake Griffin, PF	LAC	19	-24.10	66.3%	19.4%
122	122	0	Andre Iguodala, SG	DEN	13	-29.47	57.3%	15.3%
123	123	0	Omer Asik, C	HOU	10	-39.43	54.8%	13.7%
124	124	0	Josh Smith, SF	ATL	17	-48.10	49.6%	11.2%
125	125	0	Dwight Howard, C	LAL	16	-117.41	48.7%	27.4%

FT%I RK	FT% RK	DIFF	PLAYER	TEAM	PPG	FT%I	FT%	%PTS (FT)
32	12	-20	Martell Webster, SF	WSH	11	12.34	86.3%	18.5%
35	9	-26	Ray Allen, SG	MIA	11	12.00	87.5%	16.9%
40	26	-14	Jarrett Jack, PG	GS	13	11.14	84.5%	16.4%
41	20	-21	Jimmy Butler, SF	CHI	7	10.84	85.4%	27.1%
46	17	-29	Andre Miller, PG	DEN	9	10.10	85.6%	19.3%
47	11	-36	Klay Thompson, SG	GS	17	9.86	86.4%	9.6%
50	25	-25	Ryan Anderson, PF	NO	17	9.10	84.6%	11.0%
55	41	-14	Vince Carter, SG	DAL	13	8.54	82.4%	16.0%
56	34	-22	Luke Ridnour, PG	MIN	12	8.10	83.6%	13.8%

PLAYER	FT%	FT%I
Gerald Henderson, Cha SG, SF	93.5%	49.72
Martell Webster, Wsh SF	95.0%	23.21
Ray Allen, Mia SG	91.7%	23.17
Chris Copeland, NY SF	91.7%	23.17
Alonzo Gee, Cle SF, SG	86.4%	16.13
Jeff Green, Bos SF, PF	81.5%	11.16
Jason Thompson, Sac PF, C	81.0%	9.19
Rodney Stuckey, Det SG, PG	80.0%	7.7
Marreese Speights, Cle PF, C	76.9%	2.46
Gerald Wallace, Bkn SF, PF	68.0%	-15
Wilson Chandler, Den SF, SG	63.2%	-15.87
Devin Harris, Atl PG, SG	61.9%	-16.86
Tiago Splitter, SA PF, C	65.4%	-17.78
Brandan Wright, Dal PF, C	43.8%	-34.87
Reggie Evans, Bkn PF	41.7%	-64.22

NBA Fantasy News 2012/2013

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

Forum statistics

Share this page