MLB Fantasy News 2013

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Top 10 Prospects: Trade deadline[/h][h=3]Mike Olt first prospect to benefit from 2013 trade deadline deal[/h]By Jim Callis | Baseball America

Baseball's deadline for trades without waivers looms large at 4 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. The next few days are vital not only to major league teams looking to bolster their immediate playoff chances or build for the future, but also for fantasy owners; Players getting traded from one major league to the other will have a significant impact on American League-only or National League-only fantasy leagues. And players changing addresses will leave openings for youngsters to claim regular playing time, a development which can affect leagues of any size and depth.

Milwaukee Brewers starter Yovani Gallardo, Houston Astros starter Bud Norris, Chicago White Sox starter Jake Peavy, San Francisco Giants outfielder Hunter Pence and Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Michael Young are five big leaguers who haven't been able to escape trade rumors this month. If they do change addresses, these are the minor leaguers who could benefit immediately:
<OFFER>
Cody Asche, 3B, Phillies: Maikel Franco gets more publicity among Philadelphia third-base prospects, but Asche will get the first shot at replacing Young. Asche is capable of hitting .275 with five homers and 25 RBI over the final two months.

Gary Brown, OF, Giants or Roger Kieschnick, OF, Giants: If Pence leaves, San Francisco could replace him by putting Brown in center or Kieschnick in right. Neither figures to produce much more than a .250 batting average in his first taste of the majors, but Brown could provide double-digit steals while Kieschnick could add some pop (say, six or seven homers) to a punchless lineup.

Jimmy Nelson, SP, Brewers: Johnny Hellweg's lack of control and command led to a disastrous two-week stint in Milwaukee earlier this year, so Nelson makes more sense as a replacement for Gallardo. A potential No. 3 starter, there's no reason he can't equal or surpass the disappointing production (4.88 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) Gallardo has given the Brewers this year.

Brad Peacock, SP, Astros or Asher Wojciechowski, SP, Astros: Two of GM Jeff Luhnow's many trade acquisitions, Peacock has been dealt for Gio Gonzalez (by the Washington Nationals) and Jed Lowrie (by the Oakland Athletics) and Wojciechowski was part of a 10-player swap with the Toronto Blue Jays. Both righthanders have been on a roll as of late. Peacock has slightly better stuff but got bombed in Houston (8.07 ERA, 1.76 WHIP) earlier this season. Neither projects as much of a fantasy contributor trying to break into the majors on a bad team.

Andre Rienzo, SP, White Sox: Rienzo, who appeared in the World Baseball Classic and the Futures Game, would be the first Brazilian pitcher to reach the majors. He struck out 11 in a seven-inning no-hitter on Thursday, and he gets consistent swings and misses with his low-90s fastball and his curveball. He's still figuring out command, so his ERA and WHIP might not be pretty at first, but he could help fantasy teams with strikeouts.

Speaking of trades, this week's Fantasy Top 10 Prospects list starts with a player whose stock rose with a recent deal:


[h=3]1. Mike Olt, 3B, Chicago Cubs (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: .143/.250/.143, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB in two games at Triple-A Iowa; .213/.317/.422, 11 HR, 32 RBI, 0 SB in 65 games at Triple-A Round Rock; .333/.333/.750, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB in three games at Double-A Frisco.
Update: When the Cubs traded Matt Garza to the Texas Rangers on Monday, they not only loaded up on pitching prospects, but they also got their third baseman of the future in Olt. Ranked the No. 22 prospect in the game by Baseball America entering the year, Olt struggled with vision issues early in the season, possibly the result of being beaned in the Dominican Winter League last November. He might not hit for a high average, but he does have plus power and the patient approach to tap into it. He's also a quality defender who will have no problem sticking at the hot corner.
Prognosis: Olt has gone from being blocked by Adrian Beltre in Texas to having to beat out an uninspiring Luis Valbuena/Cody Ransom tandem in Chicago. The Cubs initially sent him to Triple-A Iowa after the Garza deal, but he could be their big league starter for the final two months.

[h=3]2. Michael Wacha, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: 1)[/h]
Season totals: 4-2 record, 2.68 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 60 K's in 74 IP (13 starts) at Triple-A Memphis.
Update: Wacha retired the first 15 batters he faced on Wednesday and finished by allowing two hits and one run with eight strikeouts in six innings. Afterward, Cardinals manager Mike Matheny said Wacha is a candidate to start for the big league club in a Tuesday doubleheader against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Prognosis: St. Louis hasn't needed a fifth starter for most of July but will require one going forward. His combination of stuff and polish gives him a better chance to contribute than Joe Kelly or Tyler Lyons.

[h=3]3. Nick Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers (Last week's rank: 3)[/h]
Season totals: .274/.343/.440, 13 HR, 55 RBI, 4 SB in 106 games at Triple-A Toledo.
Update: Castellanos went 0-for-8 (!) in a 20-inning loss last night, dropping his July slash stats to .181/.212/.277. That's a big drop from a sizzling June in which he batted .361/.441/.583.
Prognosis: While Castellanos is in a slump, the Tigers aren't getting much out of a left-field platoon of Andy Dirks and Matt Tuiasosopo. The best short-term and long-term option for Detroit is to promote Castellanos, who's one of the best pure hitters in the minors and also possesses solid power.

[h=3]4. Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B, Boston Red Sox (Last week's rank: 5)[/h]
Season totals: .273/.377/.492, 8 HR, 24 RBI, 2 SB in 37 games at Triple-A Pawtucket; .311/.407/.502, 6 HR, 35 RBI, 5 SB in 56 games at Double-A Portland.
Update: Bogaerts is the youngest player (age 20) in the International League, yet he continues to hit homers and draw walks as if he were a seasoned veteran. He also played two games (the third and fourth of his pro career) at third base in the last five days.
Prognosis: With Stephen Drew healthy for now, the AL East-leading Red Sox are playing Jose Iglesias at third base. Iglesias' bat is cooling off, increasing the likelihood that Boston turns to Bogaerts in the near future.

[h=3]5. Sonny Gray, SP, Oakland Athletics (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: 9-5 record, 2.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 110 K's in 107 1/3 innings (17 starts) at Triple-A Sacramento.
Update: Gray spent 10 days in the A's bullpen, striking out six in four scoreless innings. Sent back to Triple-A when Oakland needed a fifth starter again, he was stretched back out with a five-inning start on Wednesday.
Prognosis: Gray has nothing left to prove in the Pacific Coast League, where he ranks second in wins and strikeouts and third in ERA. The A's are leading the AL West and have the league's best ERA (3.60), so Gray will have to wait for an opening in the rotation. But he'll be ready when needed.

[h=3]6. Danny Salazar, SP, Cleveland Indians (Last week's rank: 6)[/h]
Season totals: 3-2 record, 3.28 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 59 K's in 49 1/3 IP (12 games, 11 starts) at Triple-A Columbus; 2-3 record, 2.67 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 51 K's in 33 2/3 IP (seven starts) at Double-A Akron.
Update: After a scintillating big league debut against the Toronto Blue Jays on July 11, Salazar returned to the minors and has fanned 10 in seven innings over two short outings. The Indians are watching his innings carefully because his 89 this year already have surpassed the 87 2/3 he worked in 2012, his first full season after Tommy John surgery.
Prognosis: Zach McAllister missed nearly two months with a finger injury and struggled in his first start back on Tuesday. The Indians are falling further behind the Tigers in the AL Central, so they might not give McAllister too long a leash, which could pave the way for Salazar's return to the majors.

[h=3]7. Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians (Last week's rank: 7)[/h]
Season totals: 5-2 record, 3.86 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 76 K's in 86 2/3 IP (15 starts) at Triple-A Columbus.
Update: After missing a start with back spasms and getting time off with the Triple-A all-star break, Bauer returned to the mound for the first time in two weeks on Monday. He threw a 116-pitch complete game, allowing just two earned runs and six hits, but his command and control were still spotty. He threw just 65 strikes (56 percent of his pitches) and walked as many as he struck out (four).
Prognosis: If the Indians do keep Salazar on a tight innings limit, that would enhance Bauer's chances of getting another shot in Cleveland after making four big league spot starts already this year. He has the deepest arsenal in the organization, but Bauer still has to do a better job of using it.

[h=3]8. Archie Bradley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: 6-4 record, 2.20 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 80 K's in 82 IP (14 starts) at Double-A Mobile; 2-0 record, 1.26 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 43 K's in 28 2/3 IP (five starts) at high Class A Visalia.
Update: Before Sunday, Bradley hadn't pitched in an official game since July 8 because he appeared in the Futures Game and got time off during the Double-A all-star break. In his return to the mound, he showcased what might be the best fastball/curveball combo in the minors, throwing six shutout innings with eight strikeouts.
Prognosis: The Diamondbacks have fallen behind the Dodgers in the NL West, and they're still trying to solidify the back of their rotation. Tyler Skaggs is the No. 5 starter for now and turned in a quality start (but lost) to the Chicago Cubs on Monday. If Skaggs falters, Arizona may turn to Bradley.

[h=3]9. Taijuan Walker, SP, Seattle Mariners (Last week's rank: 8)[/h]
Season totals: 2-0 record, 2.42 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 29 K's in 26 IP (five starts) at Triple-A Tacoma; 4-7 record, 2.46 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 96 K's in 84 IP (14 starts) at Double-A Jackson.
Update: Walker gave up just two runs in his first four Triple-A starts before surrendering five in his fifth on Thursday, though he did strike out eight in five innings. He now ranks fourth in the minors with 125 whiffs in 110 innings this season.
Prognosis: Erasmo Ramirez hasn't looked good in either of his two big league starts this year, and the Mariners could open up some other spots in their rotation if they deal some veterans before Wednesday's trade deadline. They've already promoted several top prospects this season, and Walker is next in line.

[h=3]10. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: 10)[/h]
Season totals: .249/.307/.339, 5 HR, 34 RBI, 58 SB in 90 games at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: Hamilton has had three multisteal games in the last week and leads the International League with 58 swipes in 70 attempts. He had one of his better weeks offensively, going 9-for-28 (.321) with three walks, but still has to prove he can get on base consistently against Triple-A pitching, let alone big leaguers.
Prognosis: Hamilton's lack of offensive progress in 2013 has been frustrating, no question. But he's still capable of stealing 15-20 bases with just sporadic big league playing time, so he stays on the Top 10.

Dropped out (last week's rank): George Springer, OF, Houston Astros (9).

Called up (last week's rank): Henry Urrutia, OF, Baltimore Orioles (2); Tyler Skaggs, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (4).

 

[HacheMan]

How trade deadline can shuffle bullpens

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Miami Marlins closer Steve Cishek is on quite the roll, having saved three games at Coors Field already this week and 15 consecutive overall since the first week of June. Cishek boasts a strong ERA and WHIP and is on pace for the rare 30-plus save season despite the mostly miserable team around him seemingly being well on its way to 100-plus losses.

Still, by this time next week, there’s a decent possibility Cishek is no longer a closer and the Marlins turn to intriguing right-hander A.J. Ramos to close.

It’s called the nonwaiver trade deadline, and by dinner time Wednesday, we should know if the likes of Cishek, Kevin Gregg, Jose Veras, Greg Holland, Glen Perkins, Jim Henderson, Bobby Parnell, Huston Street and perhaps even Jonathan Papelbon are leaving their losing teams for new, winning teams. It’s also possible trades can be made in August, but it’s a bit rarer for reasons we don’t need to discuss here.

Here are a few bullpen guys who could be graduating to expanded, and valuable, closer roles soon if the right moves give them the opportunity:

A.J. Ramos, Miami Marlins: Cishek is relatively cost controlled, so the Marlins don’t need to move him, but he’s pitched so effectively of late that perhaps the return will be worth it. Let’s face it, 100-loss teams don’t really need a good closer, especially a 27-year-old submariner. Ramos can get his fastball into the mid-90s, and while he’s still a bit too prone to the free pass, his strikeout rate is solid. Ramos isn’t that much younger than Cishek, but teams generally want to trade for the closer -- which is ridiculous and an argument for another day -- not the unproven setup man, regardless of who is better. In this case, Cishek is better, and better bait.

Jose Cisnero, Houston Astros: It’s rather tough to tell who would be next in line should right-hander Veras get moved, because the last time he saved a game and a reliever got a hold in that game was way back on July 3! Cisnero, who has not had a great July, pitched the eighth inning that day for his fifth hold. He has none since. But nobody else in the Houston bullpen is an obvious choice. I touted Rule 5 pick Josh Fields before the season, but he doesn’t seem to be under late-inning consideration. Lefty Travis Blackley doesn’t fit the closer mold. Cisnero’s July has featured many runs, walks and strikeouts, but the converted starter is 24 and at least he throws hard.

Dale Thayer, San Diego Padres: Street has to be one of the most overrated closers out there, but his 219 career saves are probably all that most gullible general managers notice. Street has permitted 10 home runs already for the second time in three seasons. His ERA is closer to 4 than 3 for the third time in the past four seasons. Thanks to being brittle, he’s saved more than 30 games only twice in eight full seasons and isn’t on pace to do it in 2013. Trade the guy and give Thayer, the team’s actual top right-handed reliever this season, a chance. Most people would exalt Luke Gregerson to the role, but he’s trade bait as well. And Thayer performed well in the closer role last season.

Brandon Kintzler, Milwaukee Brewers: As with the Padres, this isn’t a name most people are familiar with, but the last-place Brewers really should be shopping 30-something right-handers Henderson and John Axford while their value is relatively high. Neither is part of the team’s future, and the Brewers capitalized on Francisco Rodriguez doing well to steal a decent prospect from the Baltimore Orioles last week. Kintzler isn’t special and isn’t particularly young, but he’s less likely to be moved. He’s having a fine campaign, getting enough strikeouts and allowing only two home runs.

Luke Hochevar, Kansas City Royals: I don’t think the Royals will trade Holland, even though they should. This is not a playoff team and Holland has had such a terrific season that his value will never be better. But if they do, I have doubts Aaron Crow would do a great job. He has allowed more hits than innings pitched, and his strikeout rate isn’t special. Kelvin Herrera, recently in the minors and far too homer prone, seems far away from any ninth-inning role. Hochevar is having a strong season, and one way to make your fans feel better about a busted No. 1 pick is to place him in a higher leverage role and trick everyone into thinking he’s more valuable this way. Hey, Hochevar is throwing really hard -- harder than ever -- and piling on the strikeouts. He’s probably just as prepared to close as Crow is.

Others to watch: Papelbon isn’t going anywhere, in part because the delusional Phillies think he’s really great (he’s not) and because of his bloated contract. But if he did move, Antonio Bastardo is clearly next in line, with no right-handed setup men even deserving of a big league role yet alone a closing opportunity. … Ask Chicago Cubs manager Dale Sveum who would save games should Gregg get moved and his answer changes daily, but it certainly appears that Pedro Strop is closer to the highest leverage relief role than Blake Parker. Watch, we’ve discussed Gregg for so long and expected such a disastrous fall that he probably won’t get moved or lit up. That’s baseball. … As for the other last-place teams in the American League, they aren’t likely to be moving their closers. Addison Reed is young and was groomed for the role all along by the Chicago White Sox, and Casey Janssen has battled shoulder issues and has pitched on consecutive days only one time the entire season. A healthy Jesse Crain and fellow All-Star Steve Delabar would be nice replacements, though. … If the Minnesota Twins get a good offer for Perkins, they should act. As for the setup men, Casey Fien has been considerably better than Jared Burton this season, though that’s likely irrelevant. … Then there are the New York Mets. They really should see what Parnell is worth, as his value might never be better. I’d like to see a trade just to see who is chosen as a replacement. LaTroy Hawkins? Scott Atchison? John Franco? Believe it or not, David Aardsma, he of the 69 career saves for the Seattle Mariners, has pitched well enough for another chance here or somewhere. Maybe the Mets can move him too!

Have a great weekend!

 

[HacheMan]

Albert Pujols' future value, possible fill-ins

Eric Karabell

Los Angeles Angels fans and fantasy owners won't have much-maligned first baseman Albert Pujols to kick around anymore, and perhaps that's a good thing. After all, Pujols has been hurt pretty much the entire 2013 season, which might have ended this weekend with his placement on the disabled list because of a partially torn plantar fascia in his left foot. He might have to have surgery, which would keep him from the spotlight until spring 2014.

You know how I'll be viewing future Hall of Famer Pujols in 2014? As a third-round fantasy draft pick, at the least, and perhaps the second round. In fact, I think he'll be a bargain in most leagues.

Despite dealing with the painful left foot for four months, Pujols still delivered 17 home runs and 68 RBIs in just less than two-thirds of a season. He's not a top-10 first baseman on ESPN's Player Rater, but he's not far off. His fantasy owners might be angry that Pujols didn't produce first-round value -- and I feel your pain in multiple leagues -- but if you're in a keeper league, buy now and buy confidently. This guy still has a lot of production left in him, and while some might debate what condition his bat and body will be in when his trillion-dollar contract nears its end, we're not yet to that point. Pujols will be excellent next year, and a true value because he'll go nowhere near the first round.

<OFFER>Plus, let's remember his history of recovering quickly from injury and playing through pain. In fact, it wouldn't be shocking if Pujols returns in a few weeks, against advisement and media reports. I'm not dropping him in my 10-teamer just yet, though I also have replacements.

The overriding point here is that things could have been far worse, and things are going to get far better when Pujols is healthy again, which I expect to be a big story in March. I tend to push first basemen out of the first round in drafts, opting instead for five-category contributors and middle infielders early, but as of now, my first-base rankings for 2014 would show only four first basemen ahead of or on par with Pujols, with all five being ranked somewhere in the 11-24 range. They are Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder and Edwin Encarnacion, then Pujols, Allen Craig and Chris Davis, who is quickly coming back to earth (.202 average in July, no home runs in two weeks).

Why would anyone think Pujols is done at age 33? A few months ago, he was a first-round fantasy pick, projected by ESPN Fantasy for a reasonable 34 home runs and 115 RBIs, with a .300 batting average. I remain more confident that Pujols can return to those lofty expectations than the near 40-homer/40-steal outfielder with shoulder/ankle woes on the other side of town. Los Angeles Dodgers underachiever Matt Kemp was the sixth overall pick, on average, in ESPN standard leagues heading into 2013, while Pujols was seventh. Pujols has contributed far more.

As for the annoying fantasy owner's adage that "this guy killed my team," well, I'm not listening. Pujols played through injury and still was a decent game or two from being a top-10 first baseman. Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman, who has 11 home runs and 65 RBIs with a .301 batting average, is 10th at the position. Pujols hit .258 with more home runs, and similar RBIs and runs scored totals. In other words, Pujols was still productive. It would have been preferred if he were a 10th-round pick, not a first-rounder, but we can't change that now. Even today, from a pure fantasy sense and if you remove value from the equation, Pujols outperformed Billy Butler and Anthony Rizzo at first base, and Matt Holliday, Ryan Zimmerman, Ben Zobrist, Alex Gordon, Bryce Harper and many others from an overall standpoint. And now, with Pujols' lineup spot, you have two months to add to his 17 homers and other assorted numbers. At least he didn't hang around another two months and underperform. Look how bad Rizzo has been in July (.169 batting average, two home runs).

If you need a first baseman, it's actually not so bad out there. Be happy you didn't lose a middle infielder or catcher. At least at first base, you should have decent options available. Brandon Moss has the same 17 home runs Pujols does. Garrett Jones has that type of power. So does Chris Carter. Mitch Moreland and Justin Smoak are capable of hot streaks. Brandon Belt and Darin Ruf have power potential, as does Matt Adams, though his playing time is now in question with Holliday off the DL. And Miami Marlins prospect Christian Yelich is eligible at first base as well as the outfield, if you want upside for power and speed. I'd take Jones first, then Moss and Moreland, personally. If you need just a hitter, regardless of position, I still like Jedd Gyorko (struggling now, but a capable hitter), Rajai Davis (for steals), Michael Saunders, Nate Schierholtz (power), Lorenzo Cain (steals), Dayan Viciedo (power) and Yonder Alonso (apparently he runs, too!).

As for the Angels, perhaps they make a trade for another first baseman or outfielder this week, though I doubt it. They're double-digit games out of the division lead and a wild-card spot. Mark Trumbo should handle first base regularly, with some combination of J.B. Shuck, Kole Calhoun, Collin Cowgill and Brad Hawpe stealing at-bats at a corner outfield spot and maybe at designated hitter. None of those players are interesting from a fantasy sense, though I would like to see Calhoun get a few weeks of regular playing time. He was hitting .354 with double-digit home runs and stolen bases at Triple-A Salt Lake. Efren Navarro, 27, is the Bees' first baseman, but he's mainly a patient hitter who draws walks, and not a power guy, while C.J. Cron, the first baseman at Double-A Arkansas, isn't close to big-league ready. Look for Mike Trout, Peter Bourjos (once he returns, hopefully by mid-August) and Josh Hamilton to handle the outfield duties. With Pujols gone, perhaps more attention will be shed on the underachieving Hamilton. Poor guy. Pujols was at least close to a top-50 hitter. Hamilton is nowhere near the top 100.
</OFFER>

 

[HacheMan]

Monday Bits: Examining Rangers' bullpen

Eric Karabell

Welcome to the final few days of July. On Wednesday, the last day of the month, there likely will be trades that affect both real baseball and the fantasy version. Some of the players moved will be big names, some will be minor leaguers, and in some cases the statistics we rely so much on will be vastly affected. However, in general, it's the bad teams sending expensive big league talent of various performance levels packing, while the good teams move the unproven kids for that talent. Then there are the Texas Rangers.

A report surfaced over the weekend that the Rangers are at least considering trading closer Joe Nathan in an effort to acquire more offensive help. This makes sense: Nathan is right there among fantasy's top closers on the Player Rater with Craig Kimbrel and Edward Mujica, but he's 38 and would be the most accomplished relief trade chip on the market (and that includes overpaid Philadelphia Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon). Plus, the Rangers have fill-in options. Frankly, it's the rare occasion when real baseball mirrors fantasy; it's as if one team has extra saves to trade to fill other needs, and it makes sense now to act.

<OFFER>So while I'm skeptical Nathan actually gets moved -- he'd presumably close elsewhere, so no need for fantasy owners to panic -- now is also a wise time to see if you have room for Rangers setup man Joakim Soria. A former closer with the Kansas City Royals, Soria has yet to permit a run over six appearances for the Rangers since coming back from Tommy John surgery. He's not throwing as hard as he used to -- though it's a small sample size -- and he is inducing ground balls. It's also theoretically possible that the Rangers move him for help, and he ends up closing elsewhere. In addition, the Rangers could turn to former closer Neftali Feliz, also on the mend from Tommy John surgery. Feliz is hoping to return this week, and the Rangers have announced it will be in a bullpen capacity. With Nathan, Soria, Feliz and feisty Tanner Scheppers, that's attractive depth.

This is a good time to remind you that in ESPN standard leagues, the deadline for trades to be accepted is this Friday, so don't wait until Thursday night to get those offers in. Simply sending offers is not enough; the deal must be agreed upon. To me, the most obvious commodity to part with in fantasy is saves, since many of the players that supply those statistics generally don't make a large contribution in any other fantasy statistics. Plus, at this time of year it's not uncommon for saves to pop up on free agency, especially near the non-waiver deadline. Soria and perhaps Feliz might be surprising beneficiaries.

Box score bits (AL): New York Yankees hero Derek Jeter came off the disabled list Sunday and, naturally, blasted a home run on the first pitch he saw. I blogged positively about Jeter a few weeks ago, and little has changed. He's worth owning. … Alfonso Soriano homered for the Yankees as well. If you need power in an AL-only format, don't assume a better option will come along later this week. … Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Rajai Davis stole four bases Sunday, going 1-for-3 with a walk. Davis doesn't play a ton, and he isn't owned in many leagues, but only two players have more stolen bases. It's hard to believe how many leagues Davis is available in, even with Melky Cabrera off the DL. … Boston Red Sox infielder Jose Iglesias was hitless in four at-bats Sunday, and is 5-for-44 since July 12. Still think he'll hit .300? He might not hit even .220. You were warned six weeks ago. … Minnesota Twins rookie Chris Colabello homered twice in Seattle over the weekend, including Sunday's blast. He's not drawing walks, and he's not particularly young (he's 29), but he's playing and should be on the radar for AL-only owners needing power.

Box score bits (NL): Cincinnati Reds rookie lefty Tony Cingrani dazzled against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday, fanning 11 while permitting one hit in seven shutout innings. Cingrani is vastly underowned in ESPN standard leagues (near 60 percent), but that comes with a caveat: Right-hander Johnny Cueto is scheduled to come off the DL in early August and could push Cingrani back to the bullpen. … Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole was outdueled by fellow rookie Jose Fernandez of the Miami Marlins on Sunday. For Cole, watch the strikeouts moving forward. He whiffed a season-best eight Sunday, after not topping five in any game. It's the Marlins, of course, but if he fanned more hitters, he'd be a hotter commodity in 10-team leagues. … New York Mets right-hander Carlos Torres entered Sunday with a 0.94 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 28 1/3 innings and then was obliterated for eight runs in three innings at Washington. An outing quite like that wasn't predictable, but Torres isn't a future star. Be careful in adding Jenrry Mejia this week as well. … What's gotten into Washington Nationals outfielder Denard Span? Through 97 games, he hit .258 with nary a home run. He gets bumped from leading off, then homers Saturday and Sunday. Sell high. He has two stolen bases in a month. … Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Adam Eaton went hitless again Sunday, dropping his batting average to .204 in 15 games. Eaton has attempted one stolen base, unsuccessfully. No, I can't make a case for 10- or 12-team ownership at this point. … How many fantasy owners love Chicago Cubs lefty Travis Wood for his 2.79 ERA and wish his hitting stats would factor in as well? Wood smacked his third home run Sunday. That's more than the following players who have more than 300 at-bats: Marco Scutaro, Jeff Keppinger, Span, Adeiny Hechavarria, Gregor Blanco, Alexei Ramirez, Eric Young Jr., Pete Kozma and Ben Revere.

 

[HacheMan]

Morse undervalued; other injured sluggers

Eric Karabell

The Seattle Mariners entered the week third in baseball in home runs, which is incredible considering the player that many predicted to lead the team in the category hasn't hit any since May.

The Mariners brought outfielder Michael Morse back from his disabled list stint Monday, and for a fantasy owner in need of power, look no further. Morse blasted six home runs before the big league season was even two weeks old, then a finger injury slowed him down and a quad problem took him out in late May. Now he's back and presumably healthy -- and owned in barely a third of ESPN standard mixed leagues. He should be in Tuesday's lineup at Fenway Park.

We could call this a tale of two seasons for Morse, but really, it has been one 10-day period then physical woes ruining everything. Morse might seem like a difficult player to analyze, but I'd argue we have a pretty good idea of what he brings to the table. ESPN fantasy originally projected a .292 batting average, 25 home runs and 79 RBIs over 483 at-bats, with a lot of strikeouts and precious few walks. Morse is one of the rare players who has hit for average over the years despite poor plate discipline, relying on a high BABIP to somehow make it work. I pegged Morse for a few more home runs and a few less hits than our projection, but he was certainly a player worth owning in all leagues.

<OFFER>A year ago, the only Mariners hitter to reach 20 home runs was third baseman Kyle Seager. Seattle tied for 19th in home runs, so it's not like the situation was dire, but the organization brought in several power hitters, including Morse, Kendrys Morales and the surprising Raul Ibanez. Second baseman Nick Franklin has also been terrific. Morse, who broke out late in 2010 and smacked 31 home runs in 2011, will fit right in to the middle of this formidable order. Only the Detroit Tigers have scored more runs in July.

Morse was one of the sleepers I sought out in my mid-March spring training tour, a confident player who brushed off my question about his lack of taking walks and emanated his "see the baseball, hit the baseball far" approach. Hey, whatever works for him tends to work for fantasy owners. Morse's power really hasn't been in question since emerging with the Washington Nationals (and boy, could they use him right now). I'll stop short of predicting another six home runs in the next two weeks, because durability has been an issue the past year-plus, but don't be surprised if he gets his power stroke back immediately and finishes 2013 strong.

Morse is an injured power hitter returning to play, and by popular demand, here are notes on others currently on the disabled list still capable of adding home runs to a fantasy ledger the rest of the way (no Ben Revere types here), in order of how I'd rank them:


• Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: The team says he'll return to the active roster when eligible Aug. 6. That's great, but will he hit for power? An ankle injury put Kemp on the shelf, not his balky shoulder. He has just five home runs in 62 games. I'll predict seven the rest of the way. Still, you can't drop him, considering his already-proven lofty potential.

• Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: He's on the seven-day DL because of a concussion, but it didn't appear terribly serious and I suspect he'll be back in the lineup this week, perhaps Tuesday. Brown is a bit overrated. After all, much of his production came in May, and he hasn't attempted a stolen base in six weeks. Still, 10 more home runs the rest of the way is certainly possible.

• Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Yankees: What else could go wrong? I'm not concerned about Granderson hitting for power, despite missing time with a broken pinkie, and he doesn't hit for average anyway. A case can be made he's more valuable than Kemp or Brown the rest of the way, so try to buy low.

• Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers: Knee woes have pushed back what figured to be a short DL stint, and with the beleaguered Brewers in last place, it doesn't make sense to rush him back. However, Ramirez is real-life trade bait, even in August after the non-waiver deadline. And he always hits. I'd keep him owned if you can wait until September.

• Josh Willingham, OF, Minnesota Twins: As with Ramirez, Willingham will be trade bait if he's playing in August, and he's an established slugger. Willingham hit 35 home runs in 2012. I'd wait for him.

• Lucas Duda, 1B/OF, New York Mets: He looked like a new and improved hitter in April with a mighty walk rate and five home runs but then mostly abandoned his approach. He does have power, though, and should be back soon. I look forward to seeing him return from his oblique injury because he's so much fun to watch as he attempts to play left field.

• Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies: He had surgery on his left knee and probably won't return until September. Frankly, the Phillies should keep playing Darin Ruf at first base, to see what they have. They know what Howard is capable of. I'm skeptical Howard does much in September, making him less than a must-own, but if healthy next March, I wouldn't bet against a return to 30 home runs.

• Ryan Ludwick, OF, Cincinnati Reds: The most available player on this list hasn't played since injuring his shoulder Opening Day, but don't forget that he hit 26 home runs in 2012 and will get to hit between Joey Votto and Jay Bruce in the Reds' lineup.

 

[HacheMan]

Injury Update: Pujols, CarGo, Granderson

Stephania Bell

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Every Monday, in this space, we'll provide updates on a variety of players to help you make your weekly lineup decisions. We'll specifically try to hit the players who are day-to-day, have just gone on the DL or are ready to return, so that you can better decide whether you can count on them or not.
All projected return timelines should be considered fluid.

[h=3]Hitters:[/h]Albert Pujols, 1B, Angels (placed on DL 7/28): Pujols has been placed on the DL with a partially torn plantar fascia in his left foot. This can’t be a big surprise to anyone, including Pujols, who has been dealing with some form of the injury off and on for almost seven years. In the spring of 2006, an issue with the foot surfaced, but Pujols did not miss any time. In 2007 and 2008, he dealt with a left calf strain, spending time on the DL as a result. (Calf strains and plantar fascia injuries often go hand in hand.) In the spring of this year, Pujols was bothered by the foot off and on throughout April. The pain was so severe at one point that it led Pujols to say, "I’m dying." At the time, the plan was to try and manage his symptoms by resting him intermittently, but the possibility always existed that the condition could worsen. The partial tear means the intact fibers are left absorbing the load and are threatened with further damage every time the foot hits the ground. The pain is typically stabbing and severe, and the dense tissue is not prone to rapid healing. That translates to rest being a big part of the equation in recovery with the hope that scar tissue will form and the pain will eventually decrease. Biomechanical issues of the foot typically contribute to the condition, and various stretching and strengthening exercises along with supportive footwear are all components of treatment. Sometimes surgery to "release" the plantar fascia is an option, but even if he were to undergo such a procedure, it would not be a quick fix. Nothing about this condition in its chronic, aggravated stage is quick. It may very well be the end of the season for Pujols, but if he does manage to return for the final weeks of the year, no one should presume that that indicates a full recovery.Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies (day-to-day): In early July, Gonzalez took an awkward swing and sprained the middle finger on his right hand. What started as a seemingly minor problem is lingering a little more than anyone would like, a reminder that a player's grip on the bat is controlled by intricate and delicate structures in the hand. Gonzalez had actually seen improvement and believed the finger was no longer a concern. Perhaps it appeared that way until last Thursday when he aggravated it during an at-bat in the first inning. He has not played since. The Denver Post reported Gonzalez was sporting thick layers of black tape around his finger and that he and the team were still evaluating options. While it sounds as if the team does not believe a DL stint will completely resolve the problem, it also sounds as if this is not likely to go away no matter what path they choose. The risk of aggravation exists with every swing of the bat. It’s unclear how much time he will miss in the near future as the Rockies are calling him day-to-day. The likelihood is that, regardless of whether he goes on the DL, he will again string together series of games where he performs well, but a setback could be lurking around the corner.
Curtis Granderson, OF, Yankees (placed on DL 5/25, could return this week): It’s almost hard to believe Granderson has played in only eight major league games this season, but he could be getting close to upping that number. Out since May with his second fracture of the year, this one in his hand, Granderson’s main challenge right now is to get comfortable at the plate. Not necessarily because he’s apprehensive about getting beaned again and suffering yet another fracture (which is how the first two happened), but because he simply hasn’t been at the plate much this year. This second fracture required surgical stabilization, and Granderson struggled to get his range of motion back initially, making it difficult to grip the bat. He has cleared that hurdle, but his time away from the game has no doubt left him rusty. According to WFAN, manager Joe Girardi says Granderson could return this weekend, but fantasy owners should not expect too much out of the gate. The risk of re-injury is low, but it may take him some time to perform consistently at the plate.

[h=3]Pitchers:[/h]Brandon Beachy, SP, Braves (started season on DL, activated 7/29): He’s back. The wait has been long and was slowed by a brief setback, but Beachy will make his return from Tommy John surgery tonight. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Beachy will be capped at around 100 pitches per Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez, a number in line with his progression of increasing pitches across his rehab assignment. Expectations need to be tempered just as they would be for anyone returning from this kind of surgery, as velocity often returns more quickly and more consistently than command. It may take Beachy a bit to get comfortable again at the major league level, and he will likely be in a very good place by the second half of next season. For now, he is still a work in progress as his first few outings should really be considered the final phase of his rehab.

 

[HacheMan]

Yoenis Cespedes showing signs of life

Eric Karabell

It’s been two weeks since Oakland Athletics outfielder Yoenis Cespedes delivered an impressive, winning show at the Home Run Derby at Citi Field, and finally he’s hit a blast in a game that counts. More are forthcoming. Is it a Derby jinx or just one of those fluke injuries that trip players up all the time? I say it’s the latter, but whatever the case, Cespedes certainly seems back on track and with a mere few days before Friday’s trade deadline in ESPN standard leagues, it’s time to remember how good this guy was in 2012.

Cespedes homered, singled and tripled Monday night against the Toronto Blue Jays, knocking in three runs. The day before against the Los Angeles Angels, he doubled twice and knocked in four. Don’t wait to act. Cespedes entered Sunday cold at the plate and dealing with a sore left wrist that he claims had nothing to do with his performance at the Derby. He’s raised his season batting average from .220 to .232 in two days, and while his drafters might remain disappointed in his overall production after being an overall top-50 player, it’s hardly too late for the current No. 50 outfielder on the Player Rater to make a run back to that level of relevancy. Even he seems to notice it.“It's not about the homer. I've started to feel better and everything is going to be fine," Cespedes told reporters through an interpreter. "When I'm hitting well, I feel like I'm contributing my grain of sand, doing my part. This team is pretty dangerous when everybody works together."
As it is, Cespedes is on pace for 24 home runs, 76 RBIs and nine stolen bases, and as noted Monday with Albert Pujols, it’s not what was expected, but it’s hardly a team-killer. As a rookie, Cespedes hit .292 with 23 home runs, 82 RBIs and 16 steals. The argument against Cespedes for this season really was not production, but durability, as nagging injuries held him back. This season, Cespedes is striking out more and his BABIP is down 62 points, as his numbers against finesse pitchers are way down. Last year, he hit .322 with a .971 OPS against the softer throwers who rely more on off-speed stuff. This year, he’s hitting .246 with a .754 OPS against them. Monday’s extra-base hits came on off-speed pitches, so hopefully it’s further evidence Cespedes is not only healthy, but making adjustments.
Box score bits (AL): On Monday, Houston Astros closer Jose Veras was dealt to the Detroit Tigers, where he figures to inherit a setup role behind Joaquin Benoit. Time to part ways with Veras in fantasy. Jose Cisnero should get first shot for saves in Houston, and don’t dismiss this last-place team providing them. After all, Veras is on pace for 30 saves. … Angels closer Ernesto Frieri permitted home runs to A.J. Pierzynski and Geovany Soto to lose Monday’s game in Texas. Frieri’s ERA rose to 4.06, and while the Angels are sellers, don’t be surprised if setup men Dane De La Rosa or Kevin Jepsen get chances for saves soon. … With Albert Pujols on the disabled list, the Angels moved Mike Trout to the No. 3 lineup spot. It was his third start this season in that role. Some will argue this is bad for his fantasy value in terms of attempting stolen bases, but I won’t. Perhaps he makes a run at 100 RBIs, too. … Pay whatever it takes for Tampa Bay Rays lefty David Price if you need to make up major points in ERA and WHIP. Including Monday’s one-run outing at Fenway Park, Price has a 1.65 ERA and five wins in seven outings since coming off the DL, with no end in sight. … Boston Red Sox third baseman Brandon Snyder accounted for the lone run off Price with a home run, but is hitting .212 in 14 games, with nary a walk. Jose Iglesias doesn't pack a wallop. Look for Will Middlebrooks, who isn’t exactly tearing things up at Triple-A Pawtucket, to still be back with the big club by next week.
Box score bits (NL): Atlanta Braves right-hander Brandon Beachy and his fantasy owners certainly didn’t enjoy his first start of the season off Tommy John surgery, as he allowed seven runs and eight hits in 3 2/3 innings. Still, don’t give up on Beachy. The velocity was there, but location was off. There’s upside for big strikeout numbers. … The Braves acquired lefty Scott Downs from the Los Angeles Angels on Monday, and he won the game that night. Downs won’t push Craig Kimbrel out of the closing role, but if your league counts holds, he figures to get chances at those. Incidentally, with Kimbrel unavailable Monday, right-hander Jordan Walden blew the save. Kimbrel will be available Tuesday. … Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado doubled and homered Monday, his first extra-base hits of July. Arenado was a coveted fantasy rookie a few months ago, but he’s been less than special, even at Coors Field. He looks like he could be a post-hype sleeper in 2014, though. … It’s hard to explain just how great Francisco Liriano has been this season, but anyone who sat him Monday because he faced the St. Louis Cardinals won’t make that error again. What can I say? A 2.16 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning after 15 starts? Colleague Dave Schoenfield calls him a Cy Young candidate. Not a chance I expected it, but I admit I’m not selling now.

 

[HacheMan]

Jesse Crain dealt to Rays

By Doug Padilla | ESPNChicago.com

CLEVELAND – In a complicated deal that needed approval from the office of commissioner Bud Selig, the Chicago White Sox traded All-Star reliever Jesse Crain and cash considerations to the Tampa Bay Rays for a player to be named later or cash considerations.
Crain is currently on the disabled list with a sore shoulder and has not pitched since June 29. He had a setback last week, and it's uncertain when he will pitch again.
"I had great, great teammates in a great city," Crain said Monday shortly after the deal was announced. "I had an organization that's been amazing to me. They brought me in here for three years and treated me unbelievably. I think I got better over three years here, for sure. I can see that. It's time I'll never forget. I just realized how many people have come through the White Sox organization. So it's pretty cool to be a part of that."

The level of player the White Sox would get in return will depend on Crain's performance, a league source told ESPNChicago's Bruce Levine.
White Sox general manager Rick Hahn said the deal was complicated by the fact that Crain was on the DL and a true determination of his value could not be made. Instead of leaving things to chance, the White Sox will select from a pool of players at a later date.
"It required a fair amount of creativity and trust between the two clubs, and given our relationship with them it was fairly easy to ultimately come to an agreement that we felt would make sense for both of us going forward," Hahn said. "There's a pool we're going to continue to cross check and evaluate and negotiate with [Rays GM] Andrew [Friedman] when the time is right about which combination of players and or cash we want and makes sense."
With Crain's contract expiring at the end of the season the White Sox wanted to move the right-hander while getting the best possible return. They could have kept him and tried to slip him through waivers in August, but the club felt that put them at a disadvantage.
If Crain was claimed, it would reduce the White Sox's negotiating power to the claiming team, likely reducing their return even further.
"Keep in mind a lot of clubs are interested in acquiring guys for October," Hahn said. "There's also a lot that need him ready for Aug. 1 and be ready to contribute to the pennant race starting on Day 1. So, I do think him being unavailable for the start of August hampered his market to an extent."
Crain was one of baseball's top setup men in the first half of the season with a 0.74 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and 19 holds. He earned his first All-Star selection as a result, but his injury prevented him from playing in the game.
"Obviously, we haven't played to our expectations here, so to get a chance to get healthy and pitch for a team in first place right now, there's nothing more you can ask for," Crain said.
Crain took to Twitter to extend his gratitude to the White Sox and the city of Chicago, while also showing his excitement in joining the Rays.



There are no rules in baseball's collective bargaining agreement against trading players who are on the disabled list. The White Sox traded for Jake Peavy in 2009 when the former San Diego Padres pitcher was on the DL.
Crain, who has had similar shoulder tendinitis two other times in his career, is confident he will be throwing again within the week. A healthy Crain not only benefits the Rays, it also helps the White Sox get a better return package.
"Rest and build up, I think that's the most important thing," Crain said. "We were just trying to get me to pitch before the 31st. In the long run, I wanted to be out there, too, but my arm wasn't ready for it. Hopefully, this time we'll take our time and be ready for the rest of the year."

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Jake Peavy traded to Boston Red Sox

[/h]
Eric Karabell

The non-waiver trade deadline arrives Wednesday afternoon, but a bunch of American League teams couldn’t wait, making moves late Tuesday night. Certainly new Boston Red Sox right-hander Jake Peavy is the big name here, as he left the Chicago White Sox in a three-team, seven-player deal. Peavy isn’t 100 percent owned in ESPN standard leagues, but he’s close. Remember, he’s made only 13 starts this season; two since coming off the disabled list two weeks ago for a rib injury. Peavy’s value doesn’t really change while he’s changing his socks, or in this case, Sox. In last week’s pitcher rankings Peavy was No. 34 among starting pitchers, which seems reasonable. If he stays healthy he could crack the top 25.
Frankly, Boston’s interest in Peavy could signal that right-hander Clay Buchholz, 9-0 with a 1.71 ERA in 12 starts, is either nowhere near a return or we won’t see him again in 2013. I’d keep Buchholz owned, but time’s a-wastin’. Brandon Workman, a right-hander who has pitched well in three starts with the Red Sox including Tuesday’s win (his first), should end up in the bullpen, but if you own him in an AL-only format I’d keep him around. It’s not like Peavy -- or John Lackey, for that matter -- is safe to make every start from here on out. Trading for Peavy is far wiser than moving top prospect Xander Bogaerts for Cliff Lee, as if that were a possibility anyway. As for the third-base situation, I still think Will Middlebrooks is going to be a factor the final two months, unless the organization makes a Wednesday trade for someone like Michael Young, which they really shouldn’t.

What’s interesting to fantasy owners are the two relatively unowned hitters in the trade who could become regulars, as well as potentially the right-hander likely replacing Peavy in the White Sox rotation. Andre Rienzo made his big league debut against the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday by allowing three unearned runs over seven innings. Rienzo, leading the International League in whiffs, fanned six Indians. He’s a risky addition for 12-team leagues, frankly, reminding me a bit of Oakland Athletics right-hander Dan Straily in that he wasn’t really regarded as a top prospect until piling on massive strikeout totals in the minors. Straily got his chance last season and didn’t thrive, and even now he’s hit or miss. Rienzo was also walking people at Triple-A Charlotte, where his ERA was 4.06, his WHIP 1.34. He’s someone to watch and spend a dollar on in AL-only formats, but that’s about it unless he turns out to be considerably better than his minor league peripherals.
I’m not a big fan of either Avisail Garcia or Jose Iglesias, the other name players swapped in this trade. Garcia, 22, seems to many like a prototypical right fielder in the majors, with raw power and a strong arm, and the Tigers weren’t scared to promote him to the majors last season, where he hit in a brief audition and saw action in all three playoff rounds. Garcia should bring an enticing combination of power and speed to the White Sox, but as of now there’s no place to use him. Perhaps Alex Rios is moved by the deadline, but Garcia is a bit of an unfinished product and doesn’t have immediate opportunity. My concern is batting average. The aggressive Garcia will swing and miss a lot, as making contact is a big issue. He was hitting .382 at Triple-A Toledo, but check that .467 BABIP and brutal walk rate. I wouldn’t call him a definite top-50 outfielder the final two months, assuming 200 at-bats. I could see 25 home runs in a full-time role in 2014, but more like a .260 batting average. The difference is that Garcia could add 15 stolen bases. It sounds awesome, but I’m not a believer.
As for Iglesias, I don’t think he’ll hit nearly enough for fantasy owners to pay attention to him. Defensively, he’s already great. Iglesias is hitting .330 over 212 at-bats, but he possesses no power, not much speed and raw plate discipline. Iglesias hit a ridiculous .395 in June (with a .434 BABIP), and with similar playing time is hitting .200 in July (with a .232 BABIP). Each is extreme. I could see him hitting .260 as a full-timer, I suppose. Iglesias hit six home runs and stole 37 bases over 1,209 minor league plate appearances, slugging an embarrassing .292 at Triple-A and walking infrequently. The Red Sox did well to move Iglesias while his value was where it was.
The Tigers can use Iglesias at three infield spots, though they currently have starters in Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta and Omar Infante. Cabrera continues to be bothered by a hip injury, but the Tigers are crazy if they think Iglesias is a reasonable replacement offensively. Defensively he is. Peralta could be suspended any day and for a while, plus he’s a pending free agent, opening up shortstop in the long term. Infante is on the DL for an ankle injury, but should return in a week or so. Ultimately Iglesias will defend well enough to earn a big league starting role, but fantasy owners shouldn’t confuse that with statistical relevance. If you own Peralta, incidentally, start looking for a replacement now, and not Iglesias. The Tigers seem to know that the Peralta situation is not going to end well.
In another AL deal, the Oakland Athletics acquired third baseman Alberto Callaspo from the division rival Los Angeles Angels for Grant Green. Fantasy owners probably aren’t interested in this, but there are ramifications. Callaspo figures to handle second base for Oakland, and added eligibility will matter in AL-only leagues and deep formats. Callaspo isn’t much of a hitter, however. Green has been handling second base in the minors; he recently made his big league debut and went hitless in 15 at-bats. Suffice it to say, he’s not likely to be a fantasy factor this season. There is an opening at third base for the Angels, though, and former Colorado Rockies infielder Chris Nelson is expected to fill it. Nelson wasn’t much of a hitter even when he was at Coors Field, and one should disregard his numbers at Triple-A Salt Lake, where everyone hits.

 

[HacheMan]

Ian Kennedy traded to Padres

Eric Karabell

Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Ian Kennedy certainly seemed to need a change of scenery after struggling to a 4.47 ERA since the start of 2011, and honestly, what better place than San Diego? Not only is the weather awesome, but that large ballpark can make any fly ball pitcher look better than he really is. With Kennedy, his fall from 21-win grace in 2011 to below-average starting pitcher in 2013 showed both extremes. He’s neither as good as he once looked nor as bad as the numbers show from this season.
That’s the easy way of saying that, now that Kennedy has been dealt to the San Diego Padres for a pretty uninspiring package of lefty reliever Joe Thatcher, prospect Matt Stites and a draft pick, his value will rise, but fantasy owners shouldn’t expect the guy who finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting a few years ago to suddenly resurface. In that magical 2011 season, when Kennedy was 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, he was aided by a low BABIP and low contact and home run rates. In 2012 some of his numbers normalized, but a final ERA of 4.02 was a more likely representative of who he is. This year Kennedy has really struggled, but there’s upside for the future because of Petco Park.
Kennedy’s fastball velocity is actually up from last season, and his fly ball rate will work better than it had been in Arizona. The trade-off is less run support and a lesser team overall. Kennedy seemed like a bit of a bargain pick this season, being chosen in the 12th round of ESPN average live drafts, but he hasn’t returned that value at all. He’s currently owned in less than a third of ESPN’s standard leagues, and while I wouldn’t rush to the waiver wire to sign him in a 10- or 12-team format, his underwhelming statistics should improve the final two months. I could see Kennedy pushing his way into my top 60 starting pitchers later this season and in 2014, but remember, there’s tremendous starting pitching depth. Don’t wait for the 2011 version to return.
The Diamondbacks could afford to give up on Kennedy because of excellent rotation depth. Lefties Patrick Corbin and Wade Miley are set, and right-hander Randall Delgado has been competent so far. Right-handers Trevor Cahill and Brandon McCarthy should be back later this week, so an opening or two was needed, and lefty Tyler Skaggs seems on the verge of becoming a fantasy relevant commodity, probably in 2014. Anyone else? Oh yeah, right-hander Archie Bradley, 20 years old, should be a contributor in 2014. The Diamondbacks dealt from a position of depth, and Stites, a 22-year-old right-hander, has been dominant for Double-A San Antonio. Kennedy won’t be missed in Arizona. From a fantasy aspect, Cahill and McCarthy aren’t special, though, and Bradley isn’t quite ready.

 

[HacheMan]

Astros trades create opportunities

Eric Karabell

The Houston Astros dealt several players prior to Wednesday’s non-waiver trade deadline, neither of them attractive for fantasy owners, but as in most cases with bad teams it’s about opportunity created for others waiting to play, or opportunity lost. Right-handed pitcher Bud Norris becomes a member of the Baltimore Orioles and outfielder Justin Maxwell was sent to the Kansas City Royals, and neither for an immediate return that fantasy owners should pay attention to; What we need to keep an eye on is whether outfield prospect George Springer now gets the call.
Springer, 23, has totaled 29 home runs and 35 stolen bases between Double-A Corpus Christi and Triple-A Oklahoma City, and while he’s a strikeout machine that has elicited comparisons to former big league outfielder Mike Cameron – for positive and negative reasons – he’s certainly worth a look from a fantasy aspect for the potential in the counting statistics. As of now, there’s no word that the Maxwell deal means Springer gets the call, but keep an eye on this situation.
Maxwell piles on the strikeout totals himself, but last season he hit 18 home runs for the Astros, with nine stolen bases. Now 29, Maxwell has always had the tools, but the career .222 batting average is a big problem, and there’s little evidence he can do much about it. The Royals will likely use him in a platoon role, as he is strong against left-handed pitching. David Lough hits left-handed. This platoon seems natural. Houston could continue using Marc Krauss, Robbie Grossman and Brandon Barnes in their underwhelming outfield, but then again, this is hardly a contending team. None of these outfielders are appealing to fantasy owners.
The Astros could also give a legitimate chance to L.J. Hoes, the outfielder acquired from the Orioles in the Norris deal. Hoes, 23, was hitting .304 at Triple-A Norfolk, but other than an innate ability to take walks and get on base, there’s not much to see here. Hoes never hit as many as 10 home runs in a minor league season, and while he occasionally stole bases, it was with a poor percentage. He’s likely a fourth outfielder at best, and the Astros have younger players with higher upside, but if he gets the chance to play, he could matter in AL-only formats.
Then there’s Norris. I suppose based on his history I saved the best for last, but don’t get too excited. The right-hander owns a career 4.33 ERA and while his strikeout rate is enticing, the walk rate is not. Norris, now 28, hasn’t been durable and moving to the AL East doesn’t figure to help his numbers. The Orioles don’t seem to have an obvious rotation spot for him unless that’s it for right-hander Jason Hammel, who has struggled most of the season and is headed for another DL stint. Hammel emerged last season with a higher strikeout rate than he had ever shown before, but hasn’t replicated it in 2013. Norris is an upgrade, but from a fantasy angle, one to pass on.

 

[HacheMan]

Yadier Molina's injury, potential fill-ins

Eric Karabell

Things were looking so good for the St. Louis Cardinals last week, but now the losses are piling up. For one, the team has lost six consecutive games, including Tuesday’s doubleheader sweep by the legitimate Pittsburgh Pirates. A bigger loss, however, appeared to happen during the second game Tuesday, when catcher Yadier Molina left early with a knee strain. Molina has been mentioned as an MVP candidate, and fantasy owners won’t argue; replacing the top catcher on the ESPN Player Rater won’t be easy.

Molina, hitting a cool .330 with eight home runs and 54 RBIs, is scheduled for an MRI on Wednesday, but a disabled list stint sure looks likely. The Cardinals will turn to Tony Cruz and Rob Johnson, neither interesting for fantasy owners, or perhaps make a trade for more depth. After the game Molina told reporters, “I tried to play through it, but it’s getting worse. The smart thing is to take time off and try to fix it.” The smart thing for fantasy owners is to keep Molina owned, because he’s obviously a difference-making player, but see what’s available on free agency. Ten catchers are owned in either all or nearly all ESPN standard leagues, which is viable because only 10 are needed. There are, however, other reasonable choices readily available.

For example, Texas Rangers veteran A.J. Pierzynski is owned in roughly half of ESPN’s standard leagues and is just outside the top 10 on the Rater among catchers. He won’t hit .330, but he brings power. Atlanta Braves rookie Evan Gattis knocked in two runs Tuesday and has been seeing time in left field. Pirates veteran Russell Martin has a home run and three stolen bases over the past 15 days, an attractive combination. And for those in deeper leagues, see whether Cincinnati Reds youngster Devin Mesoraco is out there. He’s superior offensively to starter Ryan Hanigan, who’s currently on the DL with a wrist injury. Mesoraco is a future top-10 option. Regardless, fantasy owners -- and Cardinals fans -- have to hope Molina doesn’t miss considerable time. A 15-day absence is no big deal, really.

Box score bits (NL): Those relying on Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Yovani Gallardo really should move on. Not only is Gallardo having a terrible season, but he left Tuesday’s start early with hamstring tightness, and a DL stint appears pending. … Chicago Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta debuted for the team after being acquired from the Baltimore Orioles in early July and pitching to a 4.03 ERA at Triple-A Iowa. He allowed two hits and one run over six innings. Arrieta should interest NL-only owners, but he’s 27, well past prospect status. … Rookie Christian Yelich led off for the Miami Marlins on Tuesday, going hitless in four at-bats. Yelich projects as a middle-of-the-order power hitter, but give him time. He’s not hitting much regardless and remains free-agent material in 10-team formats. … Braves rookie Alex Wood gave up a few early runs Tuesday to the Colorado Rockies, then settled down to produce seven strong innings. Wood fanned seven. He and Brandon Beachy will remain in this rotation long term. … San Diego Padres outfielder Will Venable had three hits Tuesday. Although he’s generally ignored in mixed fantasy leagues despite already accruing 12 home runs and nine stolen bases, note the .323 July batting average.

Box score bits (AL): Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas smacked two home runs Tuesday, running his season total to nine. Moustakas has been a huge disappointment with his .224 batting average, and after being drafted in most leagues is now owned in fewer than 20 percent. Perhaps he’s turning things around, but it’s premature to add him in shallow formats. … Orioles lefty Wei-Yin Chen won his sixth game Tuesday, third in four chances since coming off the DL. All four have been quality starts. Chen is one of ESPN’s most added pitchers, for good reason. … Houston Astros shortstop Jonathan Villar stole home on Tuesday against Chen. I blogged about Villar last week -- his speed is legitimate. Future Jimmy Rollins?! … It’s past the time to give up on Cleveland Indians right-hander Vinnie Pestano for potential saves. He was demoted to Triple-A Columbus on Tuesday. It looks as though Joe Smith is next in line if Chris Perez falters, then Cody Allen. … Emilio Bonifacio homered Tuesday. Unfortunately, that says more about Dan Straily’s fly-ball tendencies than Bonifacio getting hot. Ignore. … Los Angeles Angels outfielder Collin Cowgill appears to be the main playing-time beneficiary of the Albert Pujols injury, and he homered Tuesday, his first of the year. Cowgill, 27, is more journeyman than prospect, but hitting second in the lineup can make journeymen hit better. I’ll be watching him closer over the next week. … Remember when Seattle Mariners rookie right-hander Brandon Maurer was a spring sleeper when he surprisingly made the rotation? He struggled and was sent to the minors, and returned Tuesday in a relief role, tossing three innings and allowing a Jarrod Saltalamacchia home run. Maurer is not a fantasy factor, and the organization has far better upside prospects for September and next season.

 

[HacheMan]

Peavy a winner at trade deadline

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Put it in the books: The 2013 trade deadline -- the actual, July 31 deadline date, that is -- was officially a dud.

That said, trade season -- which, for these purposes, let's define as the period between the All-Star break and the 4 p.m. ET July 31 deadline -- was a more active one on the pitching side than people might give credit. Three trades included incumbent rotation members, and two others incumbent closers, so the pitching ranks endured a shuffling.

Today, let's recap said trade season, breaking down the "winners" and "losers," fantasy-wise, of these deadline deals. First, here's the full trade rundown, all deals since the All-Star break that included a meaningful fantasy name:

• The Baltimore Orioles acquired SP Bud Norris from the Houston Astros for DH L.J. Hoes and SP Josh Hader. (July 31)
• The Kansas City Royals acquired OF Justin Maxwell from the Houston Astros for SP Kyle Smith. (July 31)
• The San Diego Padres acquired SP Ian Kennedy from the Arizona Diamondbacks for RP Joe Thatcher, RP Matt Stites and a 2014 competitive balance round B draft pick. (July 31)
• The Boston Red Sox acquired SP Jake Peavy from the Chicago White Sox and RP Brayan Villarreal and OF Avisail Garcia from the Detroit Tigers and sent SS/3B Jose Iglesias to Detroit and Garcia, RP J.B. Wendelken, SP Francellis Montas and SS Cleuluis Rondon to Chicago. (July 30)
• The Oakland Athletics acquired 3B Alberto Callaspo from the Los Angeles Angels for SS Grant Green. (July 30)
• The Atlanta Braves acquired RP Scott Downs from the Los Angeles Angels for SP Cory Rasmus. (July 29)
• The Tampa Bay Rays acquired RP Jesse Crain from the Chicago White Sox for players to be named or cash. (July 29)
• The Detroit Tigers acquired RP Jose Veras from the Houston Astros for OF Danry Vasquez and a player to be named. (July 29)
• The New York Yankees acquired OF Alfonso Soriano and cash from the Chicago Cubs for SP Corey Black. (July 26)
• The Baltimore Orioles acquired RP Francisco Rodriguez from the Milwaukee Brewers for 3B Nick Delmonico. (July 23)
• The Texas Rangers acquired SP Matt Garza from the Chicago Cubs for SPs C.J. Edwards and Justin Grimm, 1B Mike Olt, and a player to be named. (July 22)

[h=3]Winners[/h]
Jake Peavy: U.S. Cellular Field had to have been one of the five worst environments in baseball for a pitcher like Peavy, who regularly sports fly-ball rates north of 40 percent, a point made in this space as long as three years and as little as three weeks ago, so simply escaping the venue was a plus for his fantasy prospects. That said, despite the Green Monster's close proximity to the plate, "The Cell" was still a more homer-friendly environment to left field from 2010-12 than Boston's Fenway Park and remains so in 2013, and the rest of Fenway's confines play much more pitcher-friendly, evidenced by our Park Factors page. Peavy, a strike thrower whose greatest appeal is his reliable WHIP, should see his 4.28 ERA drop, his 3.68 xFIP -- that his Fielding Independent Pitching score with his home run rate regressed to the league average -- generally in line with his numbers from his days with the San Diego Padres. Best yet: His new team, the Boston Red Sox, has averaged 1.30 runs per game more than his former team, the Chicago White Sox. Though wins are largely unpredictable, there's little doubt that his win potential improved as a result of the deal, making him a bona fide candidate for top-25 starter status … if he can stay healthy, that is.
Ian Kennedy: Though the Padres moved in the fences at Petco Park this season, the impact upon pitching statistics have been minimal; a quick glance at their own and their opponents' home run/fly ball rates reveals between a 3-3½ percent increase, or effectively 3-4 additional home runs per 100 fly balls hit there. That's why Kennedy's move to San Diego might serve the saving grace to his season; he has dropped to barely 30 percent ownership in ESPN leagues, due to a 5.23 ERA that ranks fifth-worst among 91 qualifiers. His, like Peavy's, is a ballpark change that matters, with easily greater influence than Peavy's. Some of Kennedy's struggles, too, were the result of misfortune, as his 0.64-run differential between his ERA and FIP is 12th-highest, and 66.5 left on base percentage is sixth-worst, among qualifiers. In San Diego, Kennedy's fantasy prospects improve, and he's at least once again worth the look at a mixed-league streamer.
Detroit Tigers pitchers: Yes, Jose Iglesias' defense at shortstop is that good. Granted, his numbers this season don't show it -- he has 0 Defensive Runs Saved and a 1.3 Ultimate Zone Rating there -- but let's point out that he has played only 240 innings there, as the Red Sox have dabbled with him at third base recently. Iglesias is a brilliant defender -- just watch him play and you'll understand -- and he's joining a team that, since the beginning of last season, have minus-34 Defensive Runs Saved from their infield. Should Jhonny Peralta be subject to a Biogenesis-related suspension in the coming days, Iglesias would take over every day at shortstop, improving the team by a notable amount. That's a plus especially for ground-ballers Doug Fister (57.2 percent) and Rick Porcello (56.8 percent).


Matt Garza: Too much has been made of Garza's Wrigley Field success, as well as the probability that leaving it would harm his fantasy value. While it's true that Wrigley treated him well -- he had a 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in his 28 career starts there -- the fact remains that Garza has always enjoyed substantially greater success in his home ballpark than in his road assignments. Take a look: Garza has a lifetime ERA more than a run higher on the road (4.26) than at home (3.31), and in each season from 2008-12 he had a road era more than three-quarters of a run higher than at home. This isn't to say that Rangers Ballpark is a friendly environment for a pitcher; it's to say that Garza's ERA and WHIP shouldn't go through the roof, not in a division featuring the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners. He's also much more likely to get the run support necessary in Texas to maintain his current 7-wins-in-13-starts pace.

Jim Henderson: He was "Wally Pipp-ed." Henderson effectively lost his closer's job because he picked an unfortunate time to land on the disabled list; Francisco Rodriguez snuck in and rattled off a comparably hot streak to Henderson's to begin the year. With Rodriguez gone, however, and with all indications being that John Axford won't get another crack at closing, Henderson got another ninth-inning chance. Frankly, he deserved it. In 22 appearances since his return, Henderson has a 3.00 ERA, 26.7 percent strikeout rate (that going by batters faced; it's 10.29 per nine innings), four holds and five saves, including four consecutive successful conversions. Back in the role in which he thrived in April and May, Henderson could be a sneaky-good top-20 fantasy save-getter.

Joaquin Benoit: Be happy that Jose Veras landed in Detroit, because had it been Francisco Rodriguez, he of the 304 career saves, or Jonathan Papelbon, who has 277, today Benoit might be back in the eighth inning. There has been much made about the Tigers' lack of interest in having Benoit close, but in his defense, he's a perfect 8-for-8 in save chances with a 0.53 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 18 appearances since taking over, even chipping in two holds during that span. That's the reason Veras will set up Benoit as well as provide "closer insurance" initially -- keep that in mind, handcuff-seekers -- and with Benoit's understated amount of success the past year and a half, there's no evidence the Tigers will need it. Remember when the Tigers once claimed they preferred not to use Benoit on back-to-back days? He has done so on eight occasions already this year.

[h=3]You think he 'won,' but…[/h]
Bud Norris: Upon closer inspection, Norris isn't as good a pitcher as people seem to think. He lacks an "out" pitch to use against left-handed hitters -- they're batting .306/.365/.494 against him this season -- and as such is matchups-susceptible, and his strikeout rate has plummeted this year, to a professional career-worst 16.6 percent. He's the kind of pitcher who could benefit from a more competitive environment, but whose skills don't back it up, and who now lands in a situation where his fantasy owners will still need to scrutinize his matchups. Look at the Baltimore Orioles' final 16 scheduled regular season games (home and home series with Boston and Toronto, and a 4-game series at Tampa Bay); would you start Norris in any of them? Granted, Norris' streamer appeal gets a boost by going from a team averaging 3.75 runs per game with the majors' worst bullpen ERA (5.16) to one averaging 4.71 with a 3.67 relief ERA, but the fact remains that his move to Baltimore didn't really result in a substantial value boost.

[h=3]Losers[/h]
Francisco Rodriguez: His is the classic tale of closer-turned-setup-man-via-deadline-deal, as Rodriguez, 10-for-10 in save chances for the Milwaukee Brewers this season, dropped to "just another arm" in the Baltimore Orioles bullpen. SSS (small sample size) caveat applies, but in three of six games since Rodriguez's arrival the Orioles have held the lead entering the seventh inning, and in none of those contests did he appear. He pitched games in which his team trailed, in fact, by five and four runs when he appeared, while Darren O'Day and Tommy Hunter occupied the higher-leverage spots, something especially relevant to those in holds leagues hoping to recoup some value from Rodriguez in Baltimore. If Rodriguez is a seventh -- not even eighth -- inning guy, it's appropriate; he routinely walks about 10 percent of the batters he faces (10.5 percent career) and that puts him at greater WHIP risk than O'Day or perhaps even Hunter. Rodriguez's "closer experience" could catch manager Buck Showalter's eye in the case of catastrophic injury/performance decline by Jim Johnson, but beyond that possibility it could be argued fantasy owners will squeeze more value out of O'Day going forward.

Clay Buchholz's fantasy owners: The reason this is directed at Buchholz's fantasy owners rather than the Boston Red Sox right-hander himself is that the team's Peavy acquisition doesn't impact Buchholz's role at all; the Red Sox would find room for Buchholz in their rotation once the inflammation in the bursa sac area of his right shoulder heals. With Peavy on board, however, "if" might be an appropriate substitute for "once" in the previous sentence; certainly his arrival validates Buchholz's own July 23 admission to the Boston Globe that his aim is to return with only 4-5 starts remaining in his regular season. That's what Buchholz's fantasy owners are looking at: 4-5 starts at best, no guarantee of anything close to the 1.71 ERA or 2.46 FIP he had before getting hurt, plus added reason for the Red Sox to end his season at the first hint of setback.

Jose Veras: Like Rodriguez, Veras suffered a substantial drop in fantasy value as a result of his trade to the Tigers, dropping back into a setup role, but at least in his case the scent of saves is stronger. He's next-in-line in a bullpen that's a little weaker in the middle frames, and Benoit does have a past injury history -- a more distant past, mind you -- that weighs. Still, here's a comparison that merits discussion:

Jim Johnson's 2012-13: 122 games, 116 1/3 innings, pitched consecutive days 35 times
Joaquin Benoit's 2012-13: 116 games, 114 innings, pitched consecutive days 31 times

Anyone care to argue that the Orioles have shown a tendency to lean considerably more on Johnson than the Tigers have on Benoit now?

Those who overrate the Houston Astros' eventual closer: Jose Cisnero might be an exciting add for AL-only owners, but before you race to the wire to scoop him up in a shallow mixed league, first consider his -- or any other Astros reliever's -- fantasy prospects. Though this is an Astros team that helped Veras to 19 saves in 103 team games, it's also one that has won just six of its past 29 contests, not to mention one that had Veras on a mere 30-save pace at the time of his trade. I've recited the stats of pitchers on all-time-bad teams, so if you're among those who believe they'll struggle to win more than 17 of their remaining 57 games, there's not a lot of saves potential for Cisnero, or Wesley Wright, or Josh Fields, or … gosh, who else would you really want from this bullpen? AL-only owners can freely speculate -- you're drawing from a pool of 15 closer jobs -- but mixed leaguers might prefer to pass.
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[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>	Player, Team <CENTER></CENTER>	<CENTER>Pos Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER></CENTER>	<CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>	Player <CENTER></CENTER>	<CENTER>Pos Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk</CENTER>
1	Clayton Kershaw, LAD	SP1	1		76	Mike Leake, Cin	SP57	88
2	Felix Hernandez, Sea	SP2	3		77	Joaquin Benoit, Det	RP20	89
3	Max Scherzer, Det	SP3	6		78	Wade Miley, Ari	SP58	107
4	Adam Wainwright, StL	SP4	2		79	Tim Lincecum, SF	SP59	77
5	Yu Darvish, Tex	SP5	5		80	Koji Uehara, Bos	RP21	69
6	David Price, TB	SP6	14		81	Zack Wheeler, NYM	SP60	110
7	Cliff Lee, Phi	SP7	4		82	Tony Cingrani, Cin	SP61	95
8	Madison Bumgarner, SF	SP8	8		83	Huston Street, SD	RP22	84
9	Stephen Strasburg, Wsh	SP9	9		84	Chris Archer, TB	SP62	123
10	Matt Harvey, NYM	SP10	7		85	Brandon Beachy, Atl	SP63	90
11	Gio Gonzalez, Wsh	SP11	16		86	Mark Melancon, Pit	RP23	85
12	Craig Kimbrel, Atl	RP1	13		87	Ricky Nolasco, LAD	SP64	93
13	Jered Weaver, LAA	SP12	25		88	Josh Johnson, Tor	SP65	83
14	Chris Sale, CWS	SP13	12		89	Jim Henderson, Mil	RP24	137
15	Zack Greinke, LAD	SP14	23		90	Gerrit Cole, Pit	SP66	108
16	Kenley Jansen, LAD	RP2	28		91	Jeff Locke, Pit	SP67	78
17	Francisco Liriano, Pit	SP15	71		92	Ernesto Frieri, LAA	RP25	70
18	Aroldis Chapman, Cin	RP3	15		93	Kevin Gregg, ChC	RP26	94
19	Mat Latos, Cin	SP16	17		94	Rex Brothers, Col	RP27	104
20	Mariano Rivera, NYY	RP4	20		95	Ian Kennedy, SD	SP68	109
21	Justin Verlander, Det	SP17	10		96	Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea	RP28	81
22	Mike Minor, Atl	SP18	30		97	Ryan Dempster, Bos	SP69	97
23	Matt Garza, Tex	SP19	56		98	Brad Ziegler, Ari	RP29	115
24	Cole Hamels, Phi	SP20	18		99	Bud Norris, Bal	SP70	141
25	Hiroki Kuroda, NYY	SP21	24		100	David Robertson, NYY	RP30	NR
26	Homer Bailey, Cin	SP22	34		101	Jorge De La Rosa, Col	SP71	106
27	Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh	SP23	11		102	Rick Porcello, Det	SP72	119
28	Anibal Sanchez, Det	SP24	32		103	Rafael Betancourt, Col	RP31	122
29	CC Sabathia, NYY	SP25	27		104	Corey Kluber, Cle	SP73	102
30	Greg Holland, KC	RP5	38		105	Paul Maholm, Atl	SP74	86
31	Jeff Samardzija, ChC	SP26	39		106	Ryan Cook, Oak	RP32	147
32	Joe Nathan, Tex	RP6	26		107	Jhoulys Chacin, Col	SP75	103
33	Patrick Corbin, Ari	SP27	41		108	Jacob Turner, Mia	SP76	117
34	Jake Peavy, Bos	SP28	47		109	Trevor Rosenthal, StL	RP33	142
35	Fernando Rodney, TB	RP7	45		110	Andrew Cashner, SD	SP77	96
36	Lance Lynn, StL	SP29	42		111	Felix Doubront, Bos	SP78	127
37	Rafael Soriano, Wsh	RP8	36		112	Jose Veras, Det	RP34	91
38	Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea	SP30	21		113	Ivan Nova, NYY	SP79	125
39	Matt Cain, SF	SP31	33		114	Jeremy Hefner, NYM	SP80	112
40	Glen Perkins, Min	RP9	44		115	Drew Smyly, Det	RP35	126
41	Julio Teheran, Atl	SP32	72		116	Edwin Jackson, ChC	SP81	138
42	Jonathan Papelbon, Phi	RP10	31		117	Scott Kazmir, Cle	SP82	NR
43	Jose Fernandez, Mia	SP33	64		118	John Axford, Mil	RP36	116
44	Jim Johnson, Bal	RP11	51		119	Eric Stults, SD	SP83	101
45	Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD	SP34	54		120	Samuel Deduno, Min	SP84	NR
46	Bobby Parnell, NYM	RP12	53		121	Tyler Clippard, Wsh	RP37	129
47	James Shields, KC	SP35	19		122	Randall Delgado, Ari	SP85	NR
48	Shelby Miller, StL	SP36	37		123	Trevor Cahill, Ari	SP86	NR
49	Edward Mujica, StL	RP13	35		124	A.J. Ramos, Mia	RP38	NR
50	C.J. Wilson, LAA	SP37	60		125	Dan Straily, Oak	SP87	98
51	Addison Reed, CWS	RP14	43		126	Miguel Gonzalez, Bal	SP88	121
52	A.J. Burnett, Pit	SP38	48		127	Jason Grilli, Pit	RP39	61
53	Doug Fister, Det	SP39	46		128	Johnny Cueto, Cin	SP89	66
54	Chris Perez, Cle	RP15	76		129	Dillon Gee, NYM	SP90	139
55	Jon Lester, Bos	SP40	67		130	Jordan Walden, Atl	RP40	NR
56	Grant Balfour, Oak	RP16	58		131	Yovani Gallardo, Mil	SP91	87
57	Ervin Santana, KC	SP41	59		132	Wei-Yin Chen, Bal	SP92	128
58	Sergio Romo, SF	RP17	29		133	Jose Cisnero, Hou	RP41	NR
59	Jeremy Hellickson, TB	SP42	65		134	Jason Vargas, LAA	SP93	143
60	Kyle Lohse, Mil	SP43	92		135	Brandon McCarthy, Ari	SP94	130
61	Casey Janssen, Tor	RP18	49		136	Darren O'Day, Bal	RP42	NR
62	Chris Tillman, Bal	SP44	99		137	Mark Buehrle, Tor	SP95	NR
63	Derek Holland, Tex	SP45	52		138	Dan Haren, Wsh	SP96	NR
64	Bartolo Colon, Oak	SP46	63		139	Heath Bell, Ari	RP43	NR
65	Justin Masterson, Cle	SP47	55		140	Andy Pettitte, NYY	SP97	NR
66	Matt Moore, TB	SP48	22		141	Wily Peralta, Mil	SP98	NR
67	Jarrod Parker, Oak	SP49	73		142	Alex Wood, Atl	SP99	NR
68	R.A. Dickey, Tor	SP50	57		143	Steve Delabar, Tor	RP44	114
69	John Lackey, Bos	SP51	79		144	Kyle Kendrick, Phi	SP100	124
70	Alex Cobb, TB	SP52	74		145	Erasmo Ramirez, Sea	SP101	136
71	Travis Wood, ChC	SP53	50		146	Francisco Rodriguez, Bal	RP45	105
72	A.J. Griffin, Oak	SP54	75		147	Alexi Ogando, Tex	SP102	100
73	Tommy Milone, Oak	SP55	82		148	Alex Torres, TB	RP46	NR
74	Steve Cishek, Mia	RP19	68		149	Jenrry Mejia, NYM	SP103	NR
75	Kris Medlen, Atl	SP56	62		150	Brett Anderson, Oak	SP103	133

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[HacheMan]

Tigers' Torii Hunter caps off torrid July

Eric Karabell

Let’s hear it for the old guys! Detroit Tigers outfielder Torii Hunter hit his 11th home run Wednesday and doubled twice in a rout of the Washington Nationals, raising his batting average to .316. Hunter, 38, completed a stellar July in which he hit .374 and seven home runs.

We can debate all day how much Hunter’s lineup spot has aided him this season -- of course it doesn’t hurt -- following Austin Jackson and hitting ahead of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, but the point is, coming off his strong month, his numbers look awfully similar to last year, and perhaps that in itself is a surprise.

Hunter ranks 18th among outfielders on the ESPN Player Rater, which measures production across the five standard league categories, and certainly his batting average is making the biggest mark. Entering Thursday, only nine players qualified for the batting title have a higher batting average, and interestingly enough, only two are eligible in the outfield (Michael Cuddyer, Mike Trout). Hunter is also among the league leaders in runs scored. We can thank Cabrera, Fielder and lately Victor Martinez for that. Hunter showed in July that concerns over his power were premature. He’s a smart enough hitter that he’s able to adapt from game to game and week to week, which is making him pretty safe in fantasy, and with Cabrera sitting recently with a sore hip, Hunter has stepped up and hit three home runs over five games.
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In general, hitters don’t supply batting averages like this while slashing their walk rate, but Hunter has been more aggressive at the plate this season, with a rate less than half of what it was in 2010-11. That can be dangerous, but Hunter has become a different hitter. The .389 BABIP that aided his .313 batting average last season was awfully high and has come down, but to .359. Perhaps Hunter, now hitting more ground balls than pre-2012 and fewer fly balls, can continue to thrive this way and these rates are his new baseline. Hunter is spraying hits to the opposite field and batting .305 against right-handed pitching, which is new for him. On Wednesday, he tore up Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez, but I’d argue daily leaguers should keep him active no matter the opponent’s pitcher. Hitting second also provides him with different pitches to hit, and he’s taking advantage.

Hunter’s July batting average ranked fifth among qualifiers for the month, behind Kyle Seager, Martinez, Chris Johnson and Trout, and while it’s not likely a repeat is coming with his plate discipline (2 walks, 23 strikeouts in July), he should hit .300 for the season. This is someone to trade for in fantasy, not look to sell high on, regardless of age.

Box score bits (AL): Speaking of older fellows, New York Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda tossed seven shutout innings at the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday, lowering his ERA to 2.38, sixth in baseball. In July, Kuroda’s 0.55 ERA led baseball. As with Hunter, it’s not a fluke. ... Meanwhile, Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Colby Rasmus had three hits and two RBIs Wednesday, and his batting average is up to .277, which is certainly un-Rasmus-like. He hit .371 in July with 17 RBIs. A career .248 hitter, it’s a wise time to sell high. ... Houston Astros catcher Jason Castro is showing no signs of cooling off. He hit a grand slam and two doubles Wednesday and is on pace for 20 home runs and 64 extra-base hits. He’s been a top-10 catcher and should stay there. ... Astros third baseman Matt Dominguez had four hits Wednesday, including his 14th home run. You don’t want him in an OBP format (.270 OBP), but the power from an infielder really isn’t bad and he should get better. ... Fifteen inning games can occasionally deliver a painful batting average night: Seattle Mariners second baseman Nick Franklin was 0-for-7 with four strikeouts Wednesday. He’s got power, but the strikeout potential will lead to cold streaks.

Box score bits (NL): Chicago Cubs right-hander Edwin Jackson continues to thrive with few fantasy owners watching. He tossed eight innings of one-run ball to beat the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday and finished July with a 1.83 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. ... Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy is hitting so well the team is treating him like Buster Posey, using him occasionally at first base. Lucroy doubled twice Wednesday. He’s fifth among catchers on the Player Rater. ... Washington Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez looked awful in Detroit Wednesday, permitting 10 earned runs to a lineup missing Miguel Cabrera. Gonzalez was coming off consecutive 11-strikeout performances, so don’t overrate one ugly outing. ... The amazing Pittsburgh Pirates keep extending their NL Central lead, but a negative from Wednesday was lefty Jeff Locke allowing 10 hits and four runs in four innings. Major regression has been pending for a while, so be careful. ... Miami Marlins outfielder Jake Marisnick blasted his first big league home run Wednesday. While fellow rookie Christian Yelich gets more attention, Marisnick brings a nice power/speed combination. He hasn’t been overmatched so far at the plate, with three walks and five strikeouts.

 

[HacheMan]

Alex Wood profile; top 10 prospects

By Jim Callis | Baseball America

According to reports, the Atlanta Braves thought about using their first-round pick in the 2012 draft on Alex Wood, but they decided to go with Lucas Sims instead. Much to their (pleasant) surprise, Wood was still available in the second round at No. 88 overall. One year later, he's a member of their big league rotation as they storm toward a National League East title.

Wood, who signed for $700,000 out of the University of Georgia, was expected to move quickly through the minors, which meant finishing this, his first full pro season, in Double-A. Instead, the left-handed Wood began 2013 at that level and actually made his big league debut on May 30, less than a year after he turned pro. He spent the next six weeks in Atlanta's bullpen, making one spot start (against the New York Mets on June 26), before getting sent to Triple-A on July 13.


<OFFER>Nine days later, the Braves recalled Wood when Paul Maholm went on the disabled list with a bruised wrist. Two days after that, Tim Hudson's season ended when he broke his right ankle. The Colorado Rockies hammered Brandon Beachy on Monday in his first start back from Tommy John surgery, and the upshot is that Wood could remain in Atlanta's rotation for the rest of the season.</OFFER>

Wood had Tommy John surgery back in 2009 before his college career even started. He bounced back to post a 2.73 ERA in his draft year, the lowest for a Bulldogs starter since future Seattle Mariner Dave Fleming had a 2.08 ERA in 1989.

Wood attacks hitters primarily with two pitches: a low-90s fastball that can reach 96 mph, and a quality changeup. Those two pitches play well off each other, though scouts aren't fond of his breaking ball. They also don't love his delivery, which features significant effort and a hop as he releases the ball, but it does give him some deception.

Wood has posted solid numbers as a rookie (1-2 record, 3.51 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 38 K's in 33 1/3 innings), and he earned his first big league win Tuesday, when he allowed three runs and struck out seven in as many innings against the Rockies. He could make another 10-11 starts down the stretch, and given the Braves' quality offense (second in the NL in runs scored), he could provide your fantasy team with 5-6 wins while also helping in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.

With that, here's my latest installment of the top 10 fantasy prospects, based solely on their potential to contribute at the major league level in 2013:

[h=3]1. Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B, Boston Red Sox (Last week's rank: 4)[/h]
Season totals: .278/.380/.481, 8 HR, 24 RBIs, 2 SB in 44 games at Triple-A Pawtucket; .311/.407/.502, 6 HR, 35 RBIs, 5 SB in 56 games at Double-A Portland.
Update: The Red Sox refused to part with Bogaerts in trade talks aimed at acquiring Cliff Lee from the Philadelphia Phillies. They also dealt infielder Jose Iglesias to the Detroit Tigers and didn't complete a rumored deal with the Phillies for Michael Young. Bogaerts continues to provide solid production as the youngest player (age 20) in the International League, and he also made two more starts at third base earlier this week.
Prognosis: Boston is using a combination of Brock Holt and Brandon Snyder at third base for now and also has Will Middlebrooks on call at Triple-A. But it's becoming increasingly difficult to ignore Bogaerts, who looks like a future star and is capable of giving the Red Sox a boost similar to what Manny Machado gave the Baltimore Orioles in 2012.

[h=3]2. Nick Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers (Last week's rank: 3)[/h]
Season totals: .278/.348/.440, 13 HR, 59 RBIs, 4 SB in 111 games at Triple-A Toledo.
Update: The Tigers resisted the temptation to trade their best prospect at the deadline, instead dealing Avisail Garcia to the Chicago White Sox so they could get Jose Iglesias from the Red Sox. Castellanos is heating up again, going 7-for-19 (.368) since an 0-for-8 performance in a 20-inning loss on July 25, though he has missed Toledo's last two games as his wife gave birth to the couple's first child.
Prognosis: Garcia's departure reinforces the notion that Castellanos is Detroit's future starter in left field. Tigers GM David Dombrowski has acknowledged that Castellanos is ready for the big leagues but also has declined to provide a timetable for when the team might start taking at-bats away from Andy Dirks and Matt Tuiasosopo.

[h=3]3. Michael Wacha, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: 2)[/h]
Season totals: 5-2 record, 2.48 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 67 K's in 80 IP (14 starts) at Triple-A Memphis.
Update: Wacha has nothing left to prove at Triple-A. Over 14 starts, he has thrown 65 percent of his pitches for strikes, and has allowed a total of one run in his past two outings. He worked six scoreless innings Tuesday, allowing just two baserunners while fanning seven.
Prognosis: Joe Kelly has laid claim to the Cardinals' fifth-starter role with consecutive scoreless outings. But Wacha still has the stuff and poise to make a significant contribution down the stretch should a need arise in St. Louis.

[h=3]4. Tyler Skaggs, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: 6-7 record, 4.17 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 93 K's in 82 IP (14 games, 12 starts) at Triple-A Reno; 0-0 record, 4.76 ERA, 2.29 WHIP, 8 K's in 5 2/3 IP (one start) at high Class A Visalia.
Update: The San Diego Padres shelled Skaggs on Saturday, scoring seven runs off him in 3 2/3 innings and prompting his fourth demotion of the season. On Thursday, in his first Triple-A start in a month, he allowed three runs (two earned) while striking out six in as many innings. In between those starts, the Diamondbacks created an opening in their rotation by dealing Ian Kennedy to the Padres.
Prognosis: Brandon McCarthy is about to return from a shoulder injury, and Trevor Cahill may be nearly ready to do the same, so Kennedy's departure doesn't necessarily mean another imminent opportunity for Skaggs. At the same time, the Diamondbacks are rapidly losing ground in the NL West, and Skaggs can help them reverse course if he can get better at limiting home runs at the major league level. He has yielded 13 long balls in 68 big league innings over the past two seasons.


[h=3]5. Avisail Garcia, OF, Chicago White Sox (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: .000/.000/.000, 0 HR, 0 RBIs, 0 SB in one game at Triple-A Charlotte; .374/.410/.537, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 4 SB in 33 games at Triple-A Toledo; .417/.500/.708, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 2 SB in six games at high Class A Lakeland.
Update: Garcia immediately became the White Sox's best prospect when they acquired him Tuesday in a three-team deal that sent Jake Peavy to the Red Sox and Jose Iglesias to the Tigers. He went 0-for-2 in his first game for his new organization (at Triple-A) on Thursday. He started for the Tigers in the postseason last fall and hit his first two big league homers this year, and outside of showing more patience at the plate, there's not much left for him to prove at Triple-A.
Prognosis: Garcia will be in Chicago's lineup sooner rather than later, though he might have to wait until September unless the White Sox pull off an August trade involving Alejandro De Aza or Alex Rios. U.S. Cellular Field is a homer-friendly park, so Garcia could produce something in the neighborhood of seven homers and 25 RBIs if he gets called up soon.

[h=3]6. Mike Olt, 3B, Chicago Cubs (Last week's rank: 1)[/h]
Season totals: .114/.162/.114, 0 HR, 0 RBIs, 0 SB in nine games at Triple-A Iowa; .213/.317/.422, 11 HR, 32 RBIs, 0 SB in 65 games at Triple-A Round Rock; .333/.333/.750, 1 HR, 2 RBIs, 0 SB in three games at Double-A Frisco.
Update: One of the keys to the Cubs' trade of Matt Garza to the Texas Rangers, Olt has struggled with his new organization. He went just 3-for-28 last week and has yet to provide an extra-base hit or even an RBI in nine games at Triple-A Iowa.
Prognosis: Olt has had a rough year after getting beaned in the Dominican Winter League last offseason, sustaining a concussion and perhaps contributing to vision problems. But Chicago is getting little out of Luis Valbuena and Cody Ransom at third base, and GM Jed Hoyer has said that Olt could get called up as soon as his bat warms up.

[h=3]7. Sonny Gray, SP, Oakland Athletics (Last week's rank: 5)[/h]
Season totals: 9-7 record, 3.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 115 K's in 112 innings (19 starts) at Triple-A Sacramento.
Update: The A's didn't make any major moves at the trade deadline, declining to give up top prospects Addison Russell and Gray in order to pull off a blockbuster deal. Gray, who made two scoreless appearances in relief for Oakland in early July, had his worst outing of the season on Monday, surrendering seven runs (six earned) in 4 2/3 innings at Triple-A.
Prognosis: Gray hasn't been as sharp after going three weeks between starts, but he's ready to help the A's if needed. They might not need him in their rotation this season, however, as they've opened a 3 1/2-game lead in the American League West, and former ace Brett Anderson is due back from a foot injury in mid-August.

[h=3]8. Danny Salazar, SP, Cleveland Indians (Last week's rank: 6)[/h]
Season totals: 3-2 record, one save, 2.98 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 70 K's in 54 1/3 IP (13 games, 12 starts) at Triple-A Columbus; 2-3 record, 2.67 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 51 K's in 33 2/3 IP (seven starts) at Double-A Akron.
Update: Salazar had a spectacular big league debut in a spot start on July 11, striking out seven and allowing just one run in six innings while hitting 99 mph against the Toronto Blue Jays. He has been just as dominant in three Triple-A outings since, with 21 strikeouts (and just one walk) in 12 innings. On Sunday, he fanned 11 in five shutout innings.
Prognosis: The Indians have won nine of their past 11 games and all five of their starters are pitching effectively, so they have no immediate need for Salazar. But can they really count on Scott Kazmir and Corey Kluber to keep churning out quality starts?

[h=3]9. Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians (Last week's rank: 7)[/h]
Season totals: 5-4 record, 3.82 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 80 K's in 96 2/3 IP (17 starts) at Triple-A Columbus.
Update: Stop us if you heard this before: Bauer keeps battling control and command problems as he tries to work out some kinks in his delivery. He gave up a total of eight runs (four earned) in a pair of five-inning starts in the past week, walking more batters than he struck out in each outing.
Prognosis: The Indians are monitoring Salazar's innings closely; he already has worked a career-high 94 frames in his second full year following Tommy John surgery. So it's quite possible that the less-consistent Bauer could get his fifth call-up of the season -- provided he starts to harness his formidable stuff -- if the Indians have a need.

[h=3]10. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: 10)[/h]
Season totals: .253/.310/.347, 6 HR, 37 RBIs, 64 SB in 97 games at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: In what has been a disappointing season with the bat, Hamilton is coming off one of his better weeks; in the past seven days, he has gone 9-for-29 (.310) with two walks and six steals. The game's quickest player has made a nice transition from shortstop to center field, but his bat and on-base skills are somewhat in question, given his struggles to make adjustments against Triple-A pitching.
Prognosis: Hamilton entered the season with the chance to claim a regular role in Cincinnati in the second half, but now he looks like he might not even be ready for Opening Day 2014. That said, he has enough speed to provide double-digit steals as a September call-up, so we'll keep putting him in these rankings.

Dropped out (last week's rank): Archie Bradley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (8); Taijuan Walker, SP, Seattle Mariners (9).

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Soriano the biggest winner in deals[/h][h=3]Lackluster trade deadline yields very few offensive difference-makers[/h]
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

The 2013 trade deadline -- as in, the July 31 deadline itself -- went by with scarcely a whimper, barely audible on the offensive side of the ball.

This was a pitchers' market, if one could describe it as a "market" at all, with few high-impact players changing teams after the All-Star break. As you'll see below, this year's trade deadline requires minimal change to your hitting strategy … but it does require adjustment, as any trade season does.

As we did in 60 Feet, 6 Inches, let's examine the "winners" and "losers," fantasy-wise, of these deadline deals on the hitting side. First, here's the full trade rundown, all the deals since the All-Star break that included a meaningful fantasy name:
• The Baltimore Orioles acquired SP Bud Norris from the Houston Astros for DH L.J. Hoes and SP Josh Hader. (July 31)
• The Kansas City Royals acquired OF Justin Maxwell from the Houston Astros for SP Kyle Smith. (July 31)
• The San Diego Padres acquired SP Ian Kennedy from the Arizona Diamondbacks for RP Joe Thatcher, RP Matt Stites and a 2014 competitive balance round B draft pick. (July 31)
• The Boston Red Sox acquired SP Jake Peavy from the Chicago White Sox and RP Brayan Villarreal and OF Avisail Garcia from the Detroit Tigers and sent SS/3B Jose Iglesias to Detroit and Garcia, RP J.B. Wendelken, SP Francellis Montas and SS Cleuluis Rondon to Chicago. (July 30)
• The Oakland Athletics acquired 3B Alberto Callaspo from the Los Angeles Angels for SS Grant Green. (July 30)
• The Atlanta Braves acquired RP Scott Downs from the Los Angeles Angels for SP Cory Rasmus. (July 29)
• The Tampa Bay Rays acquired RP Jesse Crain from the Chicago White Sox for players to be named or cash. (July 29)
• The Detroit Tigers acquired RP Jose Veras from the Houston Astros for OF Danry Vasquez and a player to be named. (July 29)
• The New York Yankees acquired OF Alfonso Soriano and cash from the Chicago Cubs for SP Corey Black. (July 26)
• The Baltimore Orioles acquired RP Francisco Rodriguez from the Milwaukee Brewers for 3B Nick Delmonico. (July 23)
• The Texas Rangers acquired SP Matt Garza from the Chicago Cubs for SPs C.J. Edwards and Justin Grimm, 1B Mike Olt and a player to be named. (July 22)

[h=3]Winners[/h]
Alfonso Soriano, New York Yankees: No individual hitter benefited more from being traded than Soriano, though that's as much a statement about the market as his move. Still, returning to the New York Yankees could rejuvenate Soriano, now 37 years old but reunited with former teammates Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte, with whom he hasn't played in 10 years. More importantly, it places him in a homer-friendly ballpark -- bear in mind that power is his best asset at this stage in his career -- in the American League, which affords a designated hitter role that can keep him fresher and protect the Yankees from relying too much on his mediocre glove. One thing Soriano's move to New York did not do was grant him the benefit of additional lineup support; the Yankees have actually averaged fewer runs per game (3.86) than the Chicago Cubs (3.98) this season. He'll play regularly and, in Yankee Stadium, shouldn't have much trouble maintaining -- or perhaps even increasing -- his 13.7 home run/fly ball percentage and 27-homer pace. There's no reason to give him any "old man" treatment judging by his ADP in recent years, at least not for the remainder of 2013.

Will Middlebrooks and Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox: You might think either Brock Holt or Brandon Snyder warrants this treatment, but ask yourself, do you honestly believe that the Boston Red Sox traded their most skilled infield defender, Jose Iglesias, to make room for a player with sub-.100 isolated power in his minor league career (Holt) or one who has struck out in 29.3 percent of his career trips to the plate (Snyder)? This Holt/Snyder platoon is a placeholder; once the Red Sox recognize that the duo doesn't provide net positive value either offensively or defensively, the team will be forced to turn to one of its future pieces at the hot corner. The real question: Who will get the call first?

Middlebrooks, who at only 24 years old already has a reputation for being injury-prone and impatient at the plate, hasn't done much in Triple-A Pawtucket to warrant excitement, batting .238/.292/.390 in 26 games there in the month of July. He might be the more obvious pick as next in line, but fantasy owners outside of AL-only formats with bench space to burn might be wasting their time speculating. At least Middlebrooks has power to offer in spurts, if you like short-term streak-chasing.


Bogaerts, the Red Sox's top prospect, is the exciting name to track. He didn't get the call to replace Iglesias for two reasons: One, he's still adapting to the defensive chores of third base (he's a converted shortstop), and two, the Red Sox needed an infielder who could handle multiple positions. However, Bogaerts' bat appears big-league ready, as he's a .273/.381/.473 hitter in 42 games for Pawtucket since his promotion. As a 20-year-old shortstop-turned-third baseman, Manny Machado comparisons have already begun; those comparisons might be lofty, but the situation isn't as dissimilar as you might think. If Bogaerts is manning third for the Red Sox every day come Aug. 20, don't be at all shocked.

Junior Lake, Chicago Cubs: Soriano's departure -- and perhaps eventually Nate Schierholtz's, if he clears waivers in August -- locks Lake in as a regular center fielder for the Chicago Cubs, which is a plus if you nabbed him in a deep-mixed or NL-only league. Keep in mind, he had appeared in only six games in the outfield in the minors; he was a converted shortstop without a clear place to play. Though Lake is unlikely to maintain his .316 batting average -- it's driven by an unsustainable .381 BABIP and he was a .271 career minor league hitter (albeit .295 in Triple-A) -- at least the Cubs can now afford patience through his slumps. That's important because what Lake brings to NL-only owners' table is speed; he averaged 31 steals per 162 games played in the minors.

[h=3]Losers[/h]
"Only" owners who hoarded their FAAB: (This columnist sheepishly raises his hand.) Though it wasn't a decided strategy of mine in the annual Tout Wars-National League experts league to hoard FAAB for a cross-league buying bonanza -- I did attempt bids ranging between $21-31 on many premier pickups, including Jose Fernandez, Tony Cingrani, Marcell Ozuna and Jacob Turner, but lost out to higher bids -- by July, I ended up with a mountain pile of FAAB (that's Free Agent Acquisition Budget, for those unfamiliar) to spend on a premier talent traded into the league. Come 4:01 p.m. ET on Wednesday, the most exciting new NL'er up for bids was … Scott Downs.

This wasn't completely unexpected; this year's was a weaker market than usual, and many of the candidates to make the AL-to-NL hop carried high contracts that would have been unattractive to frugal teams like, say, the Pittsburgh Pirates or Arizona Diamondbacks. Now FAAB hoarders in NL-only leagues must hope for one of two things: That an unexpectedly good minor league prospect earns an early promotion or that a player sneaks through waivers only to be traded into the NL in August. While the latter is possible, let's not forget that some of the top candidates to do so bring pricey contracts: Alex Rios ($17-plus million remaining through 2014), Justin Morneau ($14 million 2013 salary) and Alexei Ramirez ($23-plus million remaining through 2015) are just three examples. Any of the more attractive candidates, like Kendrys Morales, Michael Morse or Mark Trumbo, has a much more palatable contract and is therefore far less likely to make it through waivers.

Expect someone like Cody Asche, who failed to crack the "Winners" list above because his Philadelphia Phillies didn't clear third base for him by trading Michael Young, or future such examples to fetch far greater FAAB bids than usual in the coming weeks. There's a good chance that NL-only waiver wires won't be an easy landscape to travel the rest of the way with many mediocre names going for bloated prices.

Not that the American League had it much better. Judging by the trades list at this column's top, most moves remained intraleague, making the week's top NL-to-AL player merely … Jose Veras. Bleagh. Plus, AL-only owners who opened their FAAB wallets the week before to snatch up Matt Garza and Alfonso Soriano will readily share their tale of being aggressive spenders when an impact talent switches leagues. Why wait?

That said, at least the AL stands slightly greater prospects of August league-switchers. Michael Young, Cliff Lee, Kyle Lohse and Rickie Weeks have contracts that make them good bets to clear waivers, and many of the AL's contenders have budgets that could absorb them, meaning that there's slightly greater incentive to follow a hoarding strategy.

Texas Rangers lineup: Why didn't this team more aggressively pursue offensive help, considering that the team has been shut out four times in its past 13 games, averaging 3.31 runs during that span? In addition, a suspension threatens to prematurely end the season of Nelson Cruz, who leads the team in homers (24) and RBIs (72), and Lance Berkman has hinted at retirement in recent days. Losing Cruz would prove a crushing blow to this squad, which lost Mike Olt in the Garza trade, meaning there's one fewer immediate fill-in should the Rangers need one. If you're an owner of Rangers hitters, it might be wise to temper your runs/RBIs expectations for the final two months. If there's anyone with a minimal chance at being impacted, it's Leonys Martin: Typically the team's No. 9 hitter, he might slide into the leadoff spot, with Ian Kinsler dropping to third, if Cruz is banned.

Jhonny Peralta, Detroit Tigers: Jose Iglesias' acquisition is as compelling evidence as there is that the Detroit Tigers believe Peralta will be among the players suspended for at least 50 games as a result of the Biogenesis investigation; why would a team trade a prospect like Avisail Garcia for a mere late-inning defensive replacement? No, Iglesias is "suspension insurance," which general manager Dave Dombrowski effectively confirmed when he told the Detroit Free Press on Monday that "if there is a lengthy suspension in which Jhonny does not play … we now feel very well protected." At the very least, Iglesias' arrival signals that the Tigers aren't planning on Peralta being back for 2014, so even if the veteran somehow escapes punishment, expect to see a lot of Iglesias at shortstop in the coming weeks. It's time to finalize your contingency plan, Peralta owners.

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[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<CENTER>#</CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prv Rk</CENTER>	<CENTER></CENTER>	<CENTER>#</CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prv Rk</CENTER>
1	Mike Trout, LAA	OF1	1		76	Chase Utley, Phi	2B10	59
2	Miguel Cabrera, Det	3B1	2		77	Mark Trumbo, LAA	OF34	62
3	Robinson Cano, NYY	2B1	4		78	Dexter Fowler, Col	OF35	64
4	Andrew McCutchen, Pit	OF2	6		79	Yadier Molina, StL	C8	36
5	Carlos Gonzalez, Col	OF3	3		80	Martin Prado, Ari	3B8	91
6	David Wright, NYM	3B2	8		81	Kyle Seager, Sea	3B9	77
7	Paul Goldschmidt, Ari	1B1	5		82	Carl Crawford, LAD	OF36	96
8	Hanley Ramirez, LAD	SS1	22		83	Pablo Sandoval, SF	3B10	92
9	Chris Davis, Bal	1B2	7		84	Aaron Hill, Ari	2B11	73
10	Edwin Encarnacion, Tor	1B3	9		85	Josh Donaldson, Oak	3B11	65
11	Joey Votto, Cin	1B4	10		86	Howie Kendrick, LAA	2B12	68
12	Carlos Gomez, Mil	OF4	20		87	Nick Franklin, Sea	SS9	134
13	Adam Jones, Bal	OF5	14		88	Kendrys Morales, Sea	1B11	88
14	Jose Bautista, Tor	OF6	13		89	Anthony Rizzo, ChC	1B12	57
15	Evan Longoria, TB	3B3	16		90	Jimmy Rollins, Phi	SS10	85
16	Prince Fielder, Det	1B5	12		91	Alfonso Soriano, NYY	OF37	93
17	Bryce Harper, Wsh	OF7	19		92	Coco Crisp, Oak	OF38	80
18	Buster Posey, SF	C1	18		93	J.J. Hardy, Bal	SS11	97
19	Troy Tulowitzki, Col	SS2	15		94	Starlin Castro, ChC	SS12	69
20	Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos	OF8	23		95	Dan Uggla, Atl	2B13	129
21	Giancarlo Stanton, Mia	OF9	43		96	Brett Lawrie, Tor	3B12	121
22	Adrian Beltre, Tex	3B4	11		97	Shane Victorino, Bos	OF39	84
23	Jay Bruce, Cin	OF10	28		98	Norichika Aoki, Mil	OF40	94
24	Dustin Pedroia, Bos	2B2	17		99	Erick Aybar, LAA	SS13	110
25	Ian Kinsler, Tex	2B3	25		100	Matt Kemp, LAD	OF41	61
26	Jose Reyes, Tor	SS3	29		101	Mike Napoli, Bos	C9	71
27	Jean Segura, Mil	SS4	26		102	Alejandro De Aza, CWS	OF42	82
28	Freddie Freeman, Atl	1B6	41		103	Leonys Martin, Tex	OF43	104
29	Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh	3B5	47		104	Chase Headley, SD	3B13	90
30	Jason Kipnis, Cle	2B4	21		105	Jed Lowrie, Oak	SS14	114
31	David Ortiz, Bos	DH1	34		106	Adam Dunn, CWS	1B13	108
32	Allen Craig, StL	1B7	24		107	Salvador Perez, KC	C10	122
33	Ian Desmond, Wsh	SS5	38		108	Alexei Ramirez, CWS	SS15	106
34	Adrian Gonzalez, LAD	1B8	37		109	Colby Rasmus, Tor	OF44	113
35	Justin Upton, Atl	OF11	27		110	Adam Lind, Tor	1B14	103
36	Yasiel Puig, LAD	OF12	31		111	A.J. Pierzynski, Tex	C11	136
37	Alex Rios, CWS	OF13	30		112	Josh Reddick, Oak	OF45	NR
38	Shin-Soo Choo, Cin	OF14	35		113	Matt Wieters, Bal	C12	95
39	Matt Holliday, StL	OF15	49		114	Andre Ethier, LAD	OF46	131
40	Austin Jackson, Det	OF16	50		115	Andrelton Simmons, Atl	SS16	NR
41	Michael Cuddyer, Col	OF17	32		116	Adam LaRoche, Wsh	1B15	101
42	Jose Altuve, Hou	2B5	67		117	Jhonny Peralta, Det	SS17	115
43	Everth Cabrera, SD	SS6	54		118	Nick Markakis, Bal	OF47	87
44	Carlos Beltran, StL	OF18	45		119	Chris Johnson, Atl	3B14	NR
45	Yoenis Cespedes, Oak	OF19	53		120	Michael Brantley, Cle	OF48	112
46	Michael Bourn, Cle	OF20	72		121	Jason Castro, Hou	C13	133
47	Manny Machado, Bal	3B6	39		122	Nate McLouth, Bal	OF49	89
48	Josh Hamilton, LAA	OF21	63		123	Nolan Arenado, Col	3B15	137
49	Nelson Cruz, Tex	OF22	46		124	Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Bos	C14	NR
50	Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle	SS7	78		125	Michael Morse, Sea	OF50	130
51	Wil Myers, TB	OF23	109		126	Rickie Weeks, Mil	2B14	126
52	Eric Hosmer, KC	1B9	79		127	Nate Schierholtz, ChC	OF51	140
53	Ben Zobrist, TB	2B6	51		128	Ichiro Suzuki, NYY	OF52	119
54	Brandon Phillips, Cin	2B7	40		129	Miguel Montero, Ari	C15	NR
55	Starling Marte, Pit	OF24	42		130	Yonder Alonso, SD	1B16	NR
56	Pedro Alvarez, Pit	3B7	83		131	Jedd Gyorko, SD	2B15	124
57	Alex Gordon, KC	OF25	44		132	Brandon Belt, SF	1B17	125
58	Curtis Granderson, NYY	OF26	100		133	Nick Swisher, Cle	OF53	139
59	Carlos Santana, Cle	C2	55		134	Brandon Moss, Oak	1B18	127
60	Domonic Brown, Phi	OF27	52		135	Russell Martin, Pit	C16	NR
61	Desmond Jennings, TB	OF28	66		136	Anthony Rendon, Wsh	2B16	135
62	Jason Heyward, Atl	OF29	76		137	Chris Carter, Hou	1B19	120
63	Joe Mauer, Min	C3	58		138	David Freese, StL	3B16	128
64	Elvis Andrus, Tex	SS8	81		139	Melky Cabrera, Tor	OF54	111
65	Billy Butler, KC	1B10	60		140	Derek Jeter, NYY	SS18	NR
66	Hunter Pence, SF	OF30	48		141	Denard Span, Wsh	OF55	NR
67	Wilin Rosario, Col	C4	74		142	Evan Gattis, Atl	C17	NR
68	Daniel Murphy, NYM	2B8	107		143	Aramis Ramirez, Mil	3B17	86
69	Victor Martinez, Det	C5	99		144	Logan Morrison, Mia	1B20	150
70	Torii Hunter, Det	OF31	70		145	Marlon Byrd, NYM	OF56	NR
71	Jonathan Lucroy, Mil	C6	98		146	Stephen Drew, Bos	SS19	NR
72	Matt Carpenter, StL	2B9	56		147	Junior Lake, ChC	SS20	NR
73	Brian McCann, Atl	C7	105		148	Justin Morneau, Min	1B21	116
74	Jayson Werth, Wsh	OF32	102		149	James Loney, TB	1B22	NR
75	Brett Gardner, NYY	OF33	75		150	Rajai Davis, Tor	OF57	NR

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[HacheMan]

Closer Report: Papelbon's future value

Eric Karabell

Angry Philadelphia Phillies fans and Cole Hamels fantasy owners lit up Twitter with venom on Thursday night, directed at struggling closer Jonathan Papelbon, and I admit I might have helped fuel the fire a bit. Papelbon blew his sixth save of the season against the San Francisco Giants, permitting four hits and two runs in a messy inning of work, eliciting zero swinging strikes and turning a 1-0 lead into a 2-1 deficit and eventual loss. The last time Papelbon actually saved a game was July 11. This wasn’t close to the biggest eruption by a closer on Thursday -- right, Seattle Mariners fans? -- but then again, Tom Wilhelmsen didn’t anger his fan base recently by saying, “he hadn’t signed up for this,” in reference to his team’s losing ways.

Of course, Papelbon’s performance this season isn’t exactly what his fantasy owners signed up for, either. Papelbon, the No. 3 closer off the board in ESPN live drafts and an eighth-round choice overall, is currently outside the top 20 relief pitchers on the Player Rater, though it’s not entirely his fault. He enters Friday with a perfectly reasonable 2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, and with nearly a strikeout per inning, and while he’s blown more saves than the average closer, he can’t control the lack of opportunities. Nobody can.

In terms of what Papelbon can control, his fastball velocity has dropped a bit in each of the past several seasons, his slider is coming in slower, hitters are making more contact against him and all of that is a big deal for one-inning relievers. Papelbon certainly wasn’t missing any of the Giants’ bats on Thursday. Nobody ever compares relievers to running backs, because turning 30 isn’t significant for the former like it is for the latter, but it’s possible Papelbon’s days of dominant performance are over. Unless you’re talking about the great Mariano Rivera, we expect our ninth-inning pals to accumulate more than a strikeout per inning, and if they don’t, we want to know why and if it’s a harbinger of doom. Frankly, if Papelbon was throwing better, he probably would have been traded earlier this week.

All that said, let’s make two overriding points: One, closers make for poor fantasy keeper choices for precisely this reason. Performance varies annually, even among the so-called safe options. And second, being realistic about the controversial right-hander’s fantasy value, it’s still not that bad. Be happy you didn’t draft the St. Louis Cardinals' Jason Motte a round later, for example. He has as many saves this year as colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft, who ranked Papelbon his No. 10 closer in his most recent column. That’s certainly fair, if not a bit harsh, based on track record. After all, save opportunities often change without warning from month to month. For all we know, Papelbon could earn double-digit saves in August. Well, the rest of August. When it comes to 2014 rankings, however, it’s likely Papelbon will be ranked as a top-10 closer option despite the obvious signs of regression that really haven’t shown in his ERA and WHIP yet. Perhaps we’ll find out in October, when he and his teammates are signed up to play golf, that elbow or shoulder pain was holding him back.

Fantasy owners should not be regarding closers as keeper options in standard leagues, even the top ones. This season, the top three options are clearly Atlanta Braves right-hander Craig Kimbrel, Cincinnati Reds lefty Aroldis Chapman and Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Kenley Jansen, in some order. The case can be made for Jansen first. Kimbrel is not on pace for 100 strikeouts. Chapman is barely on pace for 100 whiffs. But Jansen has been ridiculous this season, fanning the side to save Thursday’s win and now boasts 77 strikeouts against nine walks. However, these guys should have relatively short windows of dominance, so protecting them over a top hitter or elite starting pitcher just isn’t wise.

Next year, Papelbon will belong in the same class as right-handers Joe Nathan, Greg Holland and Rafael Soriano, and perhaps Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed, Grant Balfour and Bobby Parnell. If David Robertson takes over closing duties for Rivera’s Yankees, I’d buy in for him having a big season. Whoever is closing for the Pittsburgh Pirates -- Jason Grilli or Mark Melancon -- would be top-10 worthy, too, and I’m sure by next March we’ll have other appealing names. Just make sure these guys aren’t among your keepers.

NL relief notes: Lost in the rubble of a boring trade deadline was the fact the Chicago Cubs kept right-hander Kevin Gregg. I can only assume the reasoning was that other GMs realized he’s not this good, or like the Michael Young situation, the return wasn’t worth it. Anyway, no need to own Pedro Strop anymore, though it’s possible Gregg and everyone else in baseball still does get traded in August, so don’t stop paying attention. … Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Brad Ziegler has struck out three hitters in his past 9 1/3 innings. But he’s the ninth-inning guy, and there’s little sign that J.J. Putz is getting his job back. How odd. … Colorado Rockies right-hander Rafael Betancourt is expected to return from his appendectomy in mid-August, and while the team hasn’t tipped its hand, I think he takes over ninth-inning duties from lefty Rex Brothers right away. … Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Jim Henderson should keep closing through the rest of the season, and he’s looked really strong the past two weeks. … Hold on to Grilli if you like, but he probably doesn’t return until September, and even then, Melancon has been so dominant, he should keep the role.

AL relief notes: Los Angeles Angels right-hander Ernesto Frieri has done everything possible to lose the closer role recently, permitting eight runs over a 2 2/3 inning span in one atrocious week, but there remains nobody viable to push him aside. Right-hander Dane De La Rosa seemed close, but has allowed runs in four of his past five outings himself. Keep an eye on Kevin Jepsen. … Wilhelmsen and potential replacement Oliver Perez combined to allow six Boston Red Sox runs Thursday night, retiring one hitter. Wilhelmsen reminds me of John Axford, coming out of nowhere, having a terrific first season, then showing he’s not so terrific. I doubt Wilhelmsen is a closer in 2014, but he should get chances the rest of this season. … Say goodbye to Jose Veras, fantasy owners. Joaquin Benoit is keeping the closer role, and he’s doing well. And while many believe the Houston Astros will look to Jose Cisnero for saves, there’s little reason to believe he’ll pitch as well as Veras, receive the same number of save chances or even get that job security. Add him if desperate but be prepared to move on quickly if another opening, like Seattle, arises.

 

[HacheMan]

Bits: Melky back on the DL; Darvish K's 14

Eric Karabell

Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Rajai Davis runs really fast, and he likes to show it pretty much every chance he gets. Davis isn't a terrific baseball player overall, but the guy can flat-out steal bases. Even with his intermittent playing time, nobody has more than Davis' seven stolen bases in the past 15 days, and for the season, Jacoby Ellsbury and Everth Cabrera are the only players with more than his 31 steals. So why -- and it's certainly not the first time I've asked this in this forum -- is Davis still available in more than half of ESPN's standard leagues, especially now that left field is wide open for him with Melky Cabrera, an annoying fantasy option, I must say, heading back to the disabled list for knee woes?

I suspect Davis is about to become one of the most added players in ESPN leagues, as he continues to run wild. Stolen bases and saves are the categories that often see the most upheaval after the fantasy trade deadline, because guys like Davis remain unowned. I spoke to Davis back in March and asked him about his expectations and goals for the season, and it was pretty clear he wanted two things: to help the team win, which of course he has to say, and to steal as many bases as possible, which he doesn't. Blue Jays fans like the first answer; fantasy owners love the second. Don't look for power or batting average or fielding proficiency or really anything else but steals. I think Davis could very well end up leading the big leagues in the category. He nearly did last season, too, and was readily available much of the year as well.

<OFFER>As for Cabrera, whose name has obviously been sullied over the years because of his involvement in the performance-enhancing shenanigans, I'm pretty much done with him. This isn't breaking news, as the outfielder has made those who made him a top-100 pick overall feel ridiculous with his three home runs, 30 RBIs and two stolen bases this season. He's probably not going to play again in 2013, and to that I say good riddance. He should find work in 2014, but it's foolish to expect a high batting average or double digits in homers and steals until he shows us he's still capable of that. I would stop short of trying to predict what will happen with Cabrera or anyone else involved in the Biogenesis scandal, though. I do believe each player is different. Whatever the case, Cabrera has been a huge disappointment in fantasy this season, and he's still owned in 20 percent more leagues than Davis, who is nearly a top-40 outfielder on the season Player Rater.

Box score bits (AL): How good is Yu Darvish after yet another 14-strikeout, no-walk performance Thursday? Well, he's my No. 3 starter overall for the remainder of this season and 2014, behind only Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez. … And how bad is Toronto's Josh Johnson? Forget the upside; save your team's ERA and cut him. Yes, that was 10 hits, two walks and seven runs (six earned) while recording just seven outs Thursday. Enough is enough! … Cleveland Indians second baseman/outfielder Ryan Raburn slugged two home runs Thursday and knocked in four. Raburn is having a nice season as a part-timer, hammering not only left-handed pitching but right-handers as well. Consider Raburn in deeper leagues. … Minnesota Twins center fielder Aaron Hicks was hitless in four at-bats Thursday, with two more strikeouts, then was demoted to Triple-A Rochester. Hicks remains a work in progress, but one can see that the rookie will eventually matter in fantasy. He has eight home runs and nine stolen bases but also a miserable walk rate. For you AL-only owners, he should be back with the Twins in September. Oswaldo Arcia, a switch-hitter with modest power, should get another chance to show what he can do now. … The Houston Astros called up Jimmy Paredes to replace the traded Justin Maxwell on the roster, and he should garner enough playing time to matter in AL-only formats. Paredes started at second base Thursday. His numbers don't look good, but he's a decent base stealer. … Baltimore Orioles right-hander Bud Norris -- OK, that just sounds odd -- beat his former Astros teammates Thursday, allowing two runs in six innings, with eight strikeouts. It's a nice outing, but Norris does not need to be owned in standard leagues.

Box score bits (NL): San Francisco Giants first baseman Brandon Belt walked as a pinch hitter Thursday. He didn't have an official at-bat the entire series at Philadelphia, ceding playing time to Brett Pill. No, it doesn't make sense to me, either, and let's not assume it's a long-term change. (At least I hope it's not.) Belt struggled in July (.228, two home runs), but still. Pill? Chill. … Congrats to long-time minor league catcher Tuffy Gosewisch, a really nice guy who got his first big league hit for the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday. Tuffy has no fantasy relevance, but he replaces a guy in Miguel Montero who used to. Montero is on the disabled list because of a lower-back strain. He has had a miserable season -- he's 24th among catchers on the ESPN Player Rater -- but he remains owned in a quarter of ESPN leagues. Move on. … Chicago Cubs shortstop/outfielder Junior Lake smashed two home runs against the Dodgers on Thursday, but he's not considered a power guy long-term. Frankly, I still think fantasy owners should expect at least a 50-point batting average drop to come sooner rather than later. … Dodgers right-hander Ricky Nolasco won Thursday, but he permitted three home runs. He has not made it through the sixth inning or hit 100 pitches in any of his past four outings, though three were on the road. I'm buying here, but very cautiously. … Atlanta Braves right-hander Julio Teheran fanned 11 Colorado Rockies over five innings Thursday and earned his eighth win in the process. Teheran has been a competent strikeout pitcher this season, and he's certainly good enough to keep a rotation spot and No. 3 or 4 fantasy starter status

 

[HacheMan]

Late-season fantasy strategy

By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

Hall of Fame basketball coach Red Auerbach, the architect of one of the most successful runs in professional sports history, used to preach that it's not who starts the game that matters, but who finishes it. Of course, Auerbach was probably justifying his method of bringing stars such as Frank Ramsey and John Havlicek off the bench … but he may as well have been talking about the past eight or so weeks of the fantasy baseball season. That's right, it's time to finish what we started way back in March. It's time to take home that league championship

Today we'll review some tactics designed to increase your chances of winning your league. We'll begin with general principles that can be applied across all formats. Following that, we'll hone in on format-specific advice so no one will be left out.

[h=3]General winning tactics[/h]
<OFFER>Continue to focus on the round horsehide; don't get distracted by the oblong pigskin. There's plenty of time to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. You've worked too hard the past four months to let it go to waste. That said, there will be owners in your league that turn their attention elsewhere. This presents an opportunity to take advantage of their laze by working harder and beating them to the waiver wire for emerging talent. Use all the available tools at ESPN Fantasy to aid in your organization and facilitate multitasking.</OFFER>

Make up deficient pitching starts or innings sooner than later. If your league caps games started or innings and you're pacing well below the maximum, it's best to catch up in August as opposed to scrambling in September when everyone else is also battling to reach the limit. Your choices are much better now than they will be after rosters expand and when lesser pitchers get early 2014 auditions. However, don't use up all your starts or innings since the hitting will also be weaker in the last month of the season. You want to be able to take advantage of the watered-down lineups by deploying above-average pitchers and not mitigate that edge with marginal hurlers. The best way to plan is by assuming five starts per pitcher in September. If you have five trustworthy arms, then make sure you end August with 25 remaining starts. If your league uses an innings cap, assume an average of between six and seven frames per starts, meaning you need about 150-175 remaining innings come Aug. 31, plus whatever you need for relievers. Excess starts or innings will have to be filled by whoever you can scour off the waiver wire, though you'll likely have to fight league mates for their services.

When looking for waiver-wire help, sort by stats from the past 2-3 weeks. With so much going on, it's difficult to stay on top of every team's current batting order. Often a hitter playing full-time slips through the cracks. By sorting by at-bats over the previous 14-21 days, you're less likely to miss someone. At this point of the season, the single most important hitting statistic to track is at-bats. There's so much variance in performance over such a small sample that opportunity trumps skill. Don't evaluate the player by the reputation associated with the name. Instead, focus on the opportunity. Regardless of the format, you want at-bats.


Similarly, pitchers should be sorted by innings over the past 2-3 weeks. Not only will you identify hidden gems, but you can weed out pitchers whose stats are dragged down by a poor or even unlucky beginning to the season. That is, if you sort by ERA or WHIP, you may ignore some starters whose numbers include a few ugly starts. For example, astute owners that looked past the ERAs of Corey Kluber and Felix Doubront a few weeks back are reaping the benefits. On May 26, Kluber was sporting an 4.57 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP. Since that time, he has spun a 3.31 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Doubront's case is even more extreme; he was sitting at 4.91/1.62 on June 13 but has posted a 2.02 ERA and 1.09 WHIP since.

If you sorted on total innings, Kluber's and Doubront's seasonal ERAs would have turned you away, but if you caught a slice of their improvement, you could have put a large chunk of their superior outings on your ledger. Some potentially available pitchers whose ERA may not be reflective of their current performance level are Roberto Hernandez, Rick Porcello, Dan Straily and Dillon Gee.

Beware of players who may have their seasons end prematurely: It has been well-publicized that Matt Harvey will be capped at about 215 innings, which will cost him two, perhaps three starts. Other notable starters with impending innings caps are Shelby Miller, Julio Teheran, Jose Fernandez, Chris Archer, Jacob Turner and Tony Cingrani. Another class of players to be cognizant of are those playing through injury on non-playoff teams. If Colorado continues to slide, Carlos Gonzalez may be shut down to allow his thumb to heal. Similarly, Troy Tulowitzki may opt to call it a season a bit early. Other possibilities are Toronto's Jose Reyes and Brett Lawrie, San Francisco's Pablo Sandoval and Milwaukee's Rickie Weeks. This is not to say you should sell for 75 cents on the dollar, but have a contingency plan in place, especially in head-to-head leagues.

[h=3]League-specific tactics[/h]
Head-to-head points

The most common misconception in this type of league setup is that you must fortify a category or position at the expense of another. For instance, an owner may look to trade a good hitter to improve pitching or deal an outfielder to upgrade at shortstop. This is fine, provided you aren't robbing from Peter to pay Paul. Points are points; it doesn't matter where they come from. If you deal a 100-point outfielder for a 110-point pitcher, on the surface this looks like a win. But if the 110-point pitcher replaces a 40-point guy and you backfill your outfield with a 20-point guy, the net result is losing 10 points. Deal from excess, not perceived strength. Maybe you have Curtis Granderson coming off the DL. You can actually deal a better outfielder for a lesser pitcher so long as the difference between Granderson and the outfielder you deal is less than the difference between your new pitcher and the one you replace. In other words, it's Granderson plus the new pitcher versus your current outfielder and pitcher.

Head-to-head categories

Chances are you entered your draft or auction with a particular strategy in mind. Perhaps you sought balance in an effort to compete across the board. Maybe you constructed your roster to sacrifice a category or two while greatly increasing your likelihood of carrying the others. A 7-3 win is still a win. The playoffs are nearing, so it's time to objectively examine your team as presently constituted and decide if you can compete against the other probable playoff teams. You chose players to fit your plan, did they pan out? Did you happen upon a free agent or two, rendering your team stronger in a category you intended to ignore? If so, with some embellishment, you can now compete there. How does your pitching stack up against the rest? Do you have an excess of closers? Are you going to lose saves against most opponents, rendering your closers useless? What about steals; should you look to acquire another speedster or perhaps deal one? Now is the time to massage your roster so you have the best opportunity to match up against the other playoff teams.

Traditional rotisserie leagues

Throw perceived value out the window; it's all about the categories. Ignore what the ESPN Player Rater says or where your guy sits in our second-half rankings and just focus on the stats. Look for categories where you are at the bottom of tightly distributed teams and target these stats since you have the greatest number of points to gain.


Identify the categories in which the distance to the next team is substantial and look to replace a player whose specialty is that category, even if their value on paper exceeds that of their replacement. For example, Michael Bourn and Rajai Davis may be stealing bases left and right, but if you're likely to gain only one point in the category, perhaps dealing your speedster to fortify multiple other spots will lead to more points. This is actually one of the better types of deals to pursue since you can use the Player Rater to your advantage. Bourn may be ranked higher than Mark Trumbo, but Trumbo's power may yield more roto points in homers and RBIs than you lose in steals after dealing Bourn. Marco Scutaro's average may be a lot higher than Brian Dozier's, but if you have a cushion in batting average and need counting stats, the lower-ranked Dozier is your man.

With the disclaimer that -- contrary to popular belief -- there is as much, if not more, movement within batting average, ERA and WHIP as there is in the cumulative categories, now is the time to decide if you have the pitching staff to compete across the board or switch to an extreme strategy. The key is deciding whether you can maintain competitive ratios while continuing to pile up strikeouts and chase wins. Hopefully you can, but in the event that you feel your ratios are in peril, consider ignoring them while focusing on wins, strikeouts and saves. The advantage you have is that you'll be looking to pick up Tyler Chatwood and Jeremy Guthrie, so there won't be much competition for them. In addition, you can deal whatever solid starter(s) you have left to fortify saves and hitting. You reduce your margin of error and, thus, your chance to win, but you will be maximizing your roto points and letting the chips fall where they may.

The other option is bagging wins and whiffs in lieu of maintaining a strong ERA and WHIP by replacing your volatile starters with stable relievers. Again, there will be little in the way of picking up Trevor Rosenthal and Junichi Tazawa.

Keeper and dynasty leagues

While this may not be a textbook definition, I consider "keeper" leagues to have a player pool with significant turnover and "dynasty" leagues to have teams that keep the majority of their players from year to year. Truth be told, many leagues are a keeper/dynasty hybrid, which makes one-size-fits-all advice difficult. Just keep in mind this is all contextual and you need to frame it within the dynamics of your specific setup.

The primary difference when it comes to advice between the two variants is that in true keeper leagues, your attention should be strictly focused on either winning this season or building a championship foundation, not both. If you attempt to pull them both off, you usually end up falling short in both endeavors: you don't win and enter next year with a middle of the road set of freezes. In dynasty leagues, since there is minimal help at the draft or auction, you need to retain a solid foundation from season to season, making additions at the fringes to fortify your title run.

The exception to going all-in with keeper formats is if you own a cornerstone player at a very low price, perhaps as a result of a minor league draft or pickup. In order to deal a dirt-cheap Mike Trout, you need to be virtually assured of winning. We're talking about needing a catastrophic collapse unforeseen by any mortal human being to get in the way. After Trout, the degree of the necessary collapse lessens. The point being, in most leagues, owning an underpriced Trout will keep you in the running in future seasons, so if you fall short, your chances next season are not diminished via a weaker keeper list.

That said, only one team owns Trout. Most have to weigh the benefit of winning (flags fly forever!) versus sustaining a lengthy run where you're in the thick of it every season.

If you still are of the mind to play both sides of the coin, recall this: Last season the Washington Nationals entered the playoffs short-handed. Where did that get them last year and this? Just some food for thought.

 

[HacheMan]

Talkin' keepers: Hitters to stash for 2014

Eric Karabell

August is a time when a large portion of the fantasy sports-playing world collectively turns its attention to football, leaving behind average or poor fantasy baseball teams in the process. Of course this isn't ideal, and it affects even the contending teams in your league. But the reality is the seasons overlap, and unless an owner has a shot to win your baseball league, he might be putting his interest elsewhere. I have a longtime baseball keeper league that, for myriad reasons, I won't be contending in this season, and I've already turned my attention to 2014 and beyond. I shouldn't be alone.

So this week we focus on baseball keeper leagues, not the top options like Robinson Cano, Yu Darvish and even Ryan Braun, but rather players who are considered fringe options but can make an impact and help deep leaguers. Many are young … but not all of them! Frankly, a keeper-league owner should be thinking ahead, regardless of his team's current success, because it's a great time to plan ahead with players who could become keepers or, if your league still allows it, make trades that will bear future riches or draft picks.

<OFFER>Let's take a look at some very available hitters, in alphabetical order, who are still available in at least 75 percent of ESPN standard leagues and should become fantasy factors in 2014. You might want to consider stashing these guys away for next season, if you have the roster space to allow for it. I can't possibly know if your league mandates three keepers, five or the entire roster, but regardless, keep these fellows in mind, and if it means bumping a semi-productive player from the roster, so be it. Later in the week we'll take a look at pitchers.

Matt Adams, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals: He projects as a 30-homer guy who won't hurt your batting average. While regular playing time this season has been fleeting, the Cardinals are wise enough to know they must open up an opportunity for him and perhaps top prospect Oscar Taveras in 2014. Farewell, Carlos Beltran?

Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox: Whether he's playing short or third base, he's going to play in the big leagues next season, and I think he'll have a Manny Machado-type impact.

Adam Eaton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: Clearly this isn't his year. But everything we liked about Eaton back in March still stands for 2014. He has enough speed to steal 40-plus bases, and enough pop to hit double-digit home runs.

Dee Gordon, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers: Nope, I just can't shut the door on a middle infielder with 70-steal upside, even if I do have doubts he will ever hit enough to realize that potential. He's drawing more walks in the minors and could be the Dodgers' second baseman in 2014.

Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds: Speaking of speed … I'd actually say Hamilton has taken a slight step back in his developmental path this season at Triple-A Louisville, but fantasy owners also aren't asking him to hit .300 or contribute power. Shin-Soo Choo is playing on a one-year deal, and Hamilton is next up in center field.

Corey Hart, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: He's not a star, but there's every reason to believe Hart will be healthy next year, and he hit 30-plus home runs in two of his past three seasons. In deep leagues, he's worth stashing before spending that 20th-round pick on him.

Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins: He was rushed to the majors and it showed in a brutal April (.113 batting average), but don't forget the upside. He hit six home runs in May and stole five bases in July, ultimately getting re-demoted. He'll be back, though. Hicks might end up being like Oakland Athletics outfielder Chris Young for the pop, speed and, unfortunately, batting average combination, but for a few years, that wasn't bad at all.

Jesus Montero, C, Seattle Mariners: I know all the reasons to give up on the guy (defense, PEDs, injuries, and he really hasn't hit), but he's only 23 and carries over his catcher eligibility to next year, when he could be the team's regular designated hitter. Sure, I'd rather stash actual catcher Mike Zunino, but Montero will be heard from again.

Mike Olt, 3B, Chicago Cubs: He's the Cubs' starter at third base next year and will be a good one, capable of 25 home runs right away. The Cubs have no obligation to see him hit in the bigs this season, but he should get the call soon. I'd take Olt right about where Todd Frazier was drafted in mixed leagues for this season. In fact, I'd take Olt over Frazier for next year.

Jurickson Profar, 2B, Texas Rangers: He hasn't hit or run at all like we expected, but he also hasn't turned 21 yet. Next season he'll be a starter at some position, and the 20-homer/20-steal upside remains. Don't forget about him.

Anthony Rendon, 2B/3B, Washington Nationals: He's in a terrible slump right now, but the rookie is going to hit for power and average, and every time I watch Ryan Zimmerman awkwardly throw sidearm to first base, I think Rendon will also end up at the hot corner, but with middle-infield eligibility.

Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees: If Corey Hart is on the list, then Teixeira deserves inclusion, as well. After all, Teixeira was a 17th-round pick this season, and presumably he'll start fresh and healthy next spring.

Jonathan Villar, SS, Houston Astros: Even if you don't see the need to add a potential 50-steal guy who is running wild now, keep him away from others for the future. This is a young Jimmy Rollins, given his speed, confidence, switch-hitting ability and modest pop.

Other young players: Astros outfielder George Springer is a 30/30-caliber player in the minors, and the next Mike Cameron in the big leagues. I mean that in a good way. … One would assume Detroit Tigers prospect Nick Castellanos makes the 2014 team, and he could push Torii Hunter out of the No. 2 lineup spot. … The Cardinals' Taveras is every bit the monster hitter he was perceived to be this season, and can play center field. … Twins third baseman Miguel Sano has big-time power and could win the starting job next spring. Twenty home runs as a rookie is a cautious expectation, actually. … The Astros are waiting on first baseman Jonathan Singleton, and he could win the job next March, too. … Want more Astros? Delino DeShields Jr. might move from second base to outfield, but regardless of where he plays, he's an elite base stealer, just like his father. … I'm skeptical New York Mets catcher Travis d'Arnaud can stay healthy for a 140-game season, but the skills are there, and John Buck really isn't blocking him.