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Closer Report: Midseason awards
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Eric Karabell

Back in March, there was little indication fantasy owners would need to pay attention to -- or own -- the likes of Kevin Gregg, Koji Uehara and Francisco Rodriguez, but here we are days before the All-Star break and those guys are certainly a whole lot of relevant. Look around at the closer landscape and so much has changed. Edward Mujica is on pace for 45 saves, a 100-loss Houston Astros club might get its closer 30 of them and latest word from Arizona is that Byung-Hyun Kim is back in the mix for saves. What in the name of Oliver Perez is going on?
Anyway, now seems like a wise time to take stock in what we’ve learned from a fantasy aspect when it comes to that most frustrating of statistics, the save, and look ahead. One doesn’t need to pitch like a champ to earn them -- see Jose Valverde, Brandon League or Heath Bell. And one could pitch like a champ and still not earn them -- see Trevor Rosenthal or All-Star Steve Delabar -- so it’s easy to note things are ever-changing.
Top fantasy closer so far: Well, a simple look at the Player Rater tells us it’s not Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman, but Texas Rangers right-hander Joe Nathan. Not only does he have the saves, but the 0.76 WHIP is no joke. Hey, don’t hate on the old players. Some of them are really good.
Top fantasy value so far: Alas, Nathan was no sleeper on draft day. I’ll go with St. Louis Cardinals surprise Edward Mujica. When Jason Motte blew out his arm, I thought the hard-throwing Rosenthal should have been given a chance to close. Instead, the now-departed Mitchell Boggs was chosen, and he was awful. Now he’s at Double-A Tulsa in the Colorado Rockies organization. Mujica got his first save in mid-April and has dominated.
Worst fantasy value so far: While I never would have chosen Atlanta’s Kimbrel in the fourth round, which is what it took to get him in ESPN average live drafts, he’s not having a bad season. He’s behind only Nathan and Jason Grilli among closers on the Rater. Chapman is sixth. Fernando Rodney, on the other hand, was the No. 3 relief pitcher on draft day (fourth among closers if you count Chapman) and has struggled at times, with a walk rate exceeding many of his Angels and Tigers days. He’s really not in danger of losing the closer role, and his strikeout rate is significantly up on last year, but I can’t call him a top-10 closer.
Antonio Alfonseca award performance: You remember ol’ six finger, who lucked into saves with the late-'90s Florida Marlins, saved 45 games with a 1.51 WHIP in 2000 and still managed to keep getting chances. Well, how does one explain Kevin Gregg? The Chicago Cubs couldn’t keep using Carlos Marmol in the role, but Gregg’s numbers in Baltimore the past two seasons, before he was out of work in mid-April, were miserable (4.62 ERA, 1.66 WHIP). The guy always finds a way, and now he enters the weekend with 16 saves, his best strikeout percentage ever and a 1.02 WHIP. I can’t explain it. I’m certainly selling it. Watch him replace Mariano Rivera for the Yankees in 2014, he types tongue in cheek.
Joaquin Benoit award for gopher-itis: You might not recall now, but back in early April Kansas City Royals closer Greg Holland struggled, and Kelvin Herrera seemed poised to usurp the role. Herrera earned a few saves, and there was a threat of Aaron Crow getting chances as well. But Herrera couldn’t stop allowing home runs and Holland became untouchable. Since May 1, Holland’s ERA is below 1. Herrera has permitted eight home runs, following in the footsteps of current Detroit closer Benoit, who allowed 14 a year ago. Benoit is doing better now in that regard, but don’t be surprised when he is replaced via trade. By the way, two relievers have allowed 10 home runs already. One is Houston’s Paul Clemens, whom even Astros fans haven’t heard of, the other is closer Huston Street, whom everyone knows and is nearly 100 percent owned. Be very careful there.
The sleeper gone right: Grilli has been all that and a bag of chips for the surprising Pittsburgh Pirates. What I wrote back in March was Mark Melancon was a great bounce-back choice as well, and he has shown it, with a 0.85 ERA and four walks versus 44 strikeouts. A great bullpen can carry a real team, as well as a fantasy one. It’s clear who is next in line should Grilli hiccup.
The sleeper gone wrong: Raise your hand if you thought Kyuji Fujikawa would lead the Cubs in saves. I actually thought it would be Marmol, now plying his erratic trade for the Albuquerque Isotopes. Fujikawa hurt his elbow in early April, returned briefly in May and had Tommy John surgery in June. My pick is for right-hander Blake Parker to get saves when Gregg is either traded or runs into trouble.
The winners: The winningest closer is New York Mets right-hander Bobby Parnell, with five. He’s having a fine season, but let’s face it, the win total (three came in May) has overrated him some. It’s mainly luck when closers win, unless they keep blowing saves to do so, but it also says something when a guy is used in tie games. Parnell, Addison Reed and Sergio Romo are seeing more decisions than most.
The losers: For this we don’t need to refer to the ridiculous win statistic (compare James Shields and Matt Moore and tell me who is having the better season) to know that Arizona’s Bell, the Dodgers’ League and Valverde had ample chances to save 30 games, but won’t do so. Of the 34 pitchers with seven or more saves, they are the only ones with a negative Wins Above Replacement (WAR).
WAR can be good: Speaking of this non-fantasy but certainly relevant stat, Rex Brothers, Jesse Crain, Drew Smyly, Nathan and Melancon are the top relief pitchers in WAR, heading into Friday. One of them is getting saves. Even on our Rater, Detroit’s Smyly ranks better than Casey Janssen, Jose Veras and several other closers. Add top relievers if you’re over the games started pace or tired of dealing with struggling starters like Yovani Gallardo, who can hurt as much as they help.
Buy low: Uehara has the skills to keep the Boston job, and Andrew Bailey can’t stay healthy, so I don’t see him as a threat. Nor do I see Ryan Madson as a threat of pitching anytime soon, so strikeout monster Ernesto Frieri remains underrated. And nobody seems to like Cleveland’s Chris Perez, but Vinnie Pestano didn’t shine in the role.
Sell high: Well, sell high on any closer that nets you the hitter or starting pitcher you need, because it’s easy to replace saves. Even Kimbrel, great as he is, has seen his strikeout rate drop quite a bit, and based on excessive usage in recent seasons I won’t be at all surprised when injury strikes. It has already taken his top setup men. Trade Rivera based on name value, Jim Johnson based on inconsistency and Mujica based on the fact Rosenthal is better and the Cardinals have made ninth-inning adjustments in the past without provocation. And I have concerns that in a month Gregg, Rodriguez, Tom Wilhelmsen, Janssen, Steve Cishek, Street and Benoit are earning as many saves as you and I, for performance, injury or trade explanations.
Buy low: Delabar, Dale Thayer, John Axford (yes, over Jim Henderson), Parker and Tommy Hunter are right-handers to keep an eye on for when their closers struggle with injury or performance. And I still think J.J. Putz retains the Diamondbacks job in July and keeps it.
Lifetime achievement: And finally, we close with the GOAT (greatest of all time), the always reliable Mariano Rivera. Not only is he thriving, but he’s potentially on his way to leading the majors in saves, a feat which over his 19 seasons has happened only three times. Are you going to bet against this guy?
 

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2013 All-Injured All-Star team

<CITE class=byline>By Stephania Bell | ESPN.com

In honor of the festivities taking place at Citi Field in New York City this week around the 2013 MLB All-Star Game, it’s time once again to compile a roster of All-Injured All-Stars. Members of this roster are selected from:
a. Players who were chosen for this year’s All-Star game but could not participate due to injury
OR
b. Past All-Stars who might have had the potential to earn another trip in 2013 were it not for the injuries that beset them this year.
Just as was the case in 2012, this year’s list had multiple choices for nearly every position in both the American and National Leagues. In other words, there is no denying the impact of injuries on the game, a fact highlighted during the All-Star festivities which represents the halfway point of the season. Not everyone who could possibly qualify is listed. Some are making a repeat appearance after making this list last season (a dubious distinction denoted with an asterisk). The selections here, just as with the actual All-Star roster, are debatable. But as the manager of the injury roster, the selections are at my discretion.
And now, I hereby present the 2013 All-Injured All-Stars.

National League


1B: *Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies: Howard made the 2012 All-Injury roster as he was recovering from an Achilles tendon repair, a recovery slowed by setbacks in the spring. This year the three-time All Star started the season on time but was placed on the DL July 6 with a meniscus tear. Howard underwent surgery and is projected to be out for six to eight weeks (the Phillies hope to have him back and playing with the club in that time frame), a reasonable projection if all goes well with the rehab process. Still, the Achilles rupture and the meniscus injury have both been on Howard’s left side, which starts to raise the level of concern about how that leg will treat the 33-year-old going forward.
2B: Aaron Hill, Arizona Diamondbacks: Although Hill has technically returned from the DL, there is little doubt that injury derailed the All-Star second baseman’s season after a solid start. Plus, the injury is not completely out of the picture. Hill sustained a non-union fracture in his hand after being hit by a pitch. Ultimately, he was given clearance to try to play through it if the pain didn’t limit him. He has been able to do so, although the team is taking precautions to have him avoid overusing it. The risk remains that it could be aggravated during the course of the season and force him out of the lineup again.
SS: Rafael Furcal, St. Louis Cardinals: Last year at this time, Furcal was making an appearance in the MLB All-Star game; this year he has not made an appearance in a major league game. After spraining his ulnar collateral ligament, Furcal tried to go the conservative route, but during spring training this year, his elbow failed him. After undergoing Tommy John surgery and spending the rest of this year rehabbing the elbow, Furcal hopes to return next season.
3B: Aramis Ramirez, Milwaukee Brewers: Ramirez has been plagued by a problematic left knee since the spring. The Brewers have attempted to manage the problem by giving him intermittent days off. The challenge with the knee sprain Ramirez sustained back in March is that if there is any residual instability (which there appears to be, based on how his knee has behaved), it can easily become aggravated by an awkward movement that causes the knee to give way, such as a diving defensive play, a quick directional change or a slide while running the bases. Despite his attempt to play regularly in the presence of the condition, the All-Star third baseman has been limited at times by the knee and recently aggravated it to the point of requiring a second DL stint. In fact, teammate Ryan Braun was brought off the DL perhaps a few days sooner than expected when it became clear Ramirez would be heading back. The symptoms from this latest episode will likely settle fairly soon and Ramirez should be able to then increase his activity and return to the lineup. But what the two trips to the DL along with the controlled management of his playing time tell us is that we can expect the uncertainty around Ramirez and his knee to continue throughout the season.
C: Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals: We’re cheating a little bit by placing Molina here since it appears he will play in the All-Star game, despite the threat of injury. Molina’s knee began to bother him about a month ago, suddenly worsening last week and making it difficult for him to run. An MRI revealed no structural damage and after a few days rest, Molina returned to the lineup this weekend, seemingly without issue. It’s hard to imagine that an injury that has plagued him for the better part of a month would suddenly have disappeared, especially for a catcher whose job demands take their toll on the knees. It’s terrific that the National League’s leading vote-getter will be there for the fans. Let’s hope it doesn’t mean he won’t be there for them later this season.


OF: *Carl Crawford and *Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers; Justin Upton, Atlanta Braves: Crawford seemed to bounce back this season after spending most of 2012 on the DL, first for lingering wrist pain and weakness following offseason surgery, then for a torn ulnar collateral ligament that ultimately required season-ending Tommy John surgery. The injury bug appeared to be in the rearview mirror in 2013 as Crawford entered the season. Unfortunately, that changed in June when Crawford suffered a hamstring injury that sidelined him for several weeks. Just a week removed from the DL stint for his hamstring, Crawford was out of the lineup with back stiffness. Although an MRI turned up “nothing really significant” according to manager Don Mattingly, Crawford has yet to return. At 31, it’s more difficult for Crawford to bounce back from these nagging type of injuries making it more of a worry that the hamstring or the back -- or both -- could be problematic for Crawford across the remainder of the season.
Kemp’s performance in 2013 wouldn’t have earned him a spot on the All-Star team this year, even if he were healthy, but his talent has made him a regular in years past. Last year, a hamstring injury that flared up as soon as he returned from his initial DL stint caused him to miss more time than he ever had in his major league career. Now he is set to challenge that statistic with consecutive DL appearances for different injuries (a hamstring strain on the opposite side of last year’s injury followed by AC joint inflammation in his post-operative shoulder). The injuries only compounded the rough start Kemp was experiencing following his offseason labral repair. It always seemed likely Kemp would improve in the second half of this year as he rediscovered his power swing. Now the hope is that he can simply be healthy enough to have the opportunity to do so. As of now the end of the month appears to be the target for Kemp’s return and the Dodgers are hoping to see the pre-2013 version of their star outfielder.
The entire Braves outfield is hurting at the time of this All-Star game but it is Upton who has the most All-Star appearances of the three, hence his name in this position. Upton strained his calf muscle but by all accounts it sounds minor and he could return within the week.
SP: *Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies; *Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals: Is it coincidence that these two are repeat honorees? Probably not, especially given that their situations last year quite possibly portended greater concern for their health heading into this season.
In 2012, Halladay was sidelined with a strained lat, an injury he was able to return from in just under two months. This year when his performance suffered in an eerily similar manner to last year, Halladay was quicker to acknowledge there was perhaps an underlying contributory physical problem. Indeed, Halladay was dealing with damage to the rotator cuff which required surgery to repair. After undergoing surgery, Halladay has embarked on an intensive rehab program. He has made it clear he hopes to return this year, although it is not likely to be before September.
Carpenter underwent thoracic outlet surgery in 2012 to alleviate nerve compression that was causing weakness and pain in his throwing shoulder and arm. Surprisingly, he recovered well enough to rejoin his team for the postseason, but he did not pitch like his usual self. After taking some time to re-evaluate whether he even wanted to return to baseball, Carpenter dedicated himself to a focused rehab process … again. Despite several setbacks along the way, he is nearing the point where he could contribute to the Cardinals’ stable, as a starter. Carpenter is set to begin a rehab assignment Monday, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, which could pave the way for a late-season return.
RP: J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks: Technically, Putz has returned to his major league team after missing extensive time due to injury. An exception was made to include him in the list because he isn’t truly back yet as evidenced by some of his lingering struggles. A sprain of his ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing arm had the former All-Star Putz sidelined for virtually all of May and June. Shortly after returning, Putz blew a save, leaving us to wonder whether he had really fully recovered or whether he was just rusty. For now, he is operating in a support relief role but the big test he will have to pass is whether he can pitch on a regular basis without any recurrence of his elbow pain.
Honorable Mention: Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves (thumb); Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (thumb); Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves (hamstring)
American League:
1B: *Kevin Youkilis, New York Yankees: Youkilis wasn’t going to make this year’s MLB All-Star Team, but he’s certainly made enough of them in the past to warrant making this All-Star roster. Hip and back problems have limited Youkilis intermittently for years, and this time his back would not let him get comfortable. He ultimately had to go the route of back surgery in June and is expected out approximately three months. It’s worth noting that the recovery timetable following this procedure is very fluid, so any setback could throw off that schedule. Despite his age (34), Youkilis is taking a chapter out of teammate Derek Jeter's book and expects to come back, although it remains to be seen whether he’s able to do so this year.
2B: Omar Infante, Detroit Tigers: After getting taken out by a hard slide in a game in early July, Infante’s injury was initially called a contusion. It was later announced that he had sprained his ankle and Infante was placed on the DL but was expected back immediately following the All-Star break. Now it appears the ankle is moving a little more slowly than expected, and manager Jim Leyland cautions that Infante may require a little more time. While this doesn’t have the sounds of a particularly serious injury, Infante still needs to move well enough to make defensive coverage plays in addition to running the bases. A few extra days now will translate to less likelihood of lingering problems in the second half.



SS: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees: No matter how hard he tried to return to the lineup to start the season, it just wasn’t meant to be for Jeter. After undergoing surgery to stabilize his fractured ankle last fall, Jeter appeared on track with his progression until pain during spring training interrupted his running program. Imaging studies revealed a second small crack and Jeter’s program was put on hold to allow the bone to heal. As the bone healed to the point where he could resume running, Jeter progressed rapidly through his return to play progression. In fact, he progressed so well the team opted to return him prior to the All-Star break. He lasted less than one complete game.
During his first game back, Jeter’s 39 year-old-quadriceps muscle tightened up on him and he was forced out for the day. The Yankees are hopeful that this represents only a minor setback for the veteran given that it is a Grade 1 (mild) strain. After some rest and a few days to recover, it’s possible he could be ready to go after the break, although the Yankees may ease him back with alternating days off and DH usage.
3B: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: It’s not surprising that the multiple-time All-Star is on the DL at this point. When he underwent January surgery to repair the labrum in his hip, Rodriguez was expected to be out until after the All-Star break. Still, it was uncertain whether his rehab course would proceed smoothly and allow him to be on track for a July return. Minus the distractions associated with both the Biogenesis scandal and his recent rehab status updates on Twitter, Rodriguez has experienced a fairly smooth recovery. His last physical hurdle to cross before rejoining the Yankees is a complete rehab assignment and he is well on his way. On Monday, he graduated to Double-A Trenton as part of progressing him towards major league competition. According to the New York Post, Rodriguez says his legs “feel good” and the plan, as he understands it, is to rejoin the team July 22. Although he hasn’t shown much at the plate thus far, after being out of baseball for the bulk of the last nine months, the rust is not surprising. While his physical condition is improving, there may be other hurdles which prevent him from contributing for the remainder of this season and his hip may not prove to be the limiting factor.
C: Francisco Cervelli, New York Yankees: Admittedly, Cervelli is a reach here as he has never been an All-Star. But with no one else really competing for a slot here, he gets the nod as the starting catcher on a team loaded with injured All-Stars. Cervelli has been on the DL since late April after suffering a fracture in his right hand, which required surgery. (Incidentally, the Yankees seem to be leading the category of hit-by-pitches resulting in fractures amongst starters.) After finally getting to the point of being able to take batting practice, Cervelli was just shut down again due to a stress reaction in his right elbow. He now looks to be sidelined until August and it’s hard to imagine him being effective immediately at the plate after such extended limitation of baseball activity.
OF: Melky Cabrera, Toronto Blue Jays; Curtis Granderson, New York Yankees; Shane Victorino, Boston Red Sox Oh, what a difference a year makes. At this time in 2012, Cabrera was All-Star Game MVP, his performance helping ensure home field advantage for his team at the time, the San Francisco Giants, in their World Series appearance. It was a World Series that Cabrera would not end up participating in, however, due to the fallout from his suspension for testing positive for PEDs. Cabrera then switched leagues in the offseason when he signed with the Blue Jays. This year he finds himself on the DL with what is being called left knee tendinitis. The good news is he has begun a rehab assignment and should be able to rejoin his team shortly after the All-Star break, barring a setback. After going from the highest high to the lowest low last year, then following it with injury at the same point in time this year (which so far appears to be minor), Cabrera has to be ready to turn the page in the second half.
Granderson can’t catch a break this year. Or, maybe he can actually do it a little too well. After starting the season on the DL with a wrist fracture sustained when he was hit by a pitch during spring training, Granderson made his season debut in May. It was short-lived, however, as Granderson lasted just days before sustaining another fracture, also the result of being hit by a pitch. This time he sustained a break to a bone in his hand that required surgical stabilization. Granderson has struggled to regain his grip on the bat and his progress back to baseball activities has been a bit slow as a result. As of now he has begun taking swings but still needs to return to batting practice before a rehab assignment can even be in the picture. Granderson still appears to be a few weeks from rejoining the team and even then, some apprehension about exactly what he can deliver at the plate, at least initially, is justified.
Victorino has been in and out of the Red Sox lineup for much of the season with some variant of low back, hip or hamstring pain, which all seems interrelated, per manager John Farrell. The problem with this complex injury through the kinetic chain is that as it moves around, it becomes more difficult to treat as well as generally slower to resolve. It’s just as well Victorino isn’t part of the All-Star festivities as his body can certainly use the rest. Given that Victorino has already missed a month’s worth of games this season combined with the fact this problem has not gone away, there is definitely reason to be worried about how his body will hold up for the second half.


SP: Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers; Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox: Darvish would have been a fan favorite in this year’s All-Star Game and a matchup between him and some of the NL heavy hitters was eagerly anticipated. Unfortunately, that matchup won’t be happening due to Darvish’s recent placement on the DL with an upper back strain. He has struggled with giving up runs aplenty in recent outings and the team is describing his ailment as fatigue in his upper trapezius. It’s not your typical thrower’s diagnosis, and it suggests he is experiencing associated neck or upper back stiffness. The question is how long the injury has been bothering Darvish and whether his performance of late can be attributed, at least in part, to his health. While the Rangers sound confident that he will return when eligible on July 22, consider that Red Sox ace Clay Buchholz is reportedly dealing with a similar problem and has been out for over a month. It may not be quite as benign as the team is making it out to be. We won’t really know much until Darvish tries to resume throwing.
Buchholz started off the season in spectacular fashion but that came to a crashing halt after an odd injury sidelined him in late May. Buchholz claimed an awkward sleeping position resulted in soreness in his AC joint. Within a week, the problem evolved into a neck issue that was not initially considered serious, but Buchholz has yet to return. In fact, he has yet to make a rehab start; that has been delayed until after the All-Star break. The expectation is that Buchholz will be ready to return by late July, but his recovery process has not been smooth. Until he is able to return to competition level and string together consecutive starts, there remains some level of concern.
RP: Jesse Crain, Chicago White Sox: Oh, the injustice. Crain is named to his first All-Star game only to be sidelined with an injury to his throwing shoulder. Crain was placed on the DL in early July after experiencing tightness in his right shoulder while warming up. The soreness continues to linger when Crain attempts to throw, but it’s unclear just how serious the team thinks this particular episode is. Crain does have a history with his shoulder, having undergone surgery several years back to address rotator cuff and labral damage. It’s never encouraging to hear about problems resurfacing in a thrower’s shoulder but it’s too soon to establish whether this is a minor incident that will resolve itself with rest or the beginnings of a decline.
Honorable Mention: Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers (quad); Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees (wrist); Jake Peavy, SP, Chicago White Sox (rib)
</CITE>
 

hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Weighing prospect stats vs. development
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[/h]Eric Karabell

Fantasy owners tend to be all about the statistics, but they must realize that numbers often tell a misleading story. For example, last year Billy Hamilton and Delino DeShields Jr. combined to steal a ridiculous 256 bases in the minors (155 by Hamilton), but so far in 2013, they have swiped a mere 81. I know, how awful. I spoke to both these players on Sunday at New York's Citi Field as part of the Futures Game activities, and these speedsters told similar tales explaining the adjustment pertaining to overall development. It's not so much that their organizations have derailed their running game, but rather have preached that one doesn't have to steal a base at every opportunity. This is certainly relevant information for fantasy owners; these guys are not slower, so don't dare view their 2013 performances as disappointing. Sometimes it depends on the manager or the organization's game plan.

"Stealing bases just hasn't been my main focus this year; there were other parts of my game that I needed to work on," said DeShields, who is hitting .290 and has drawn 42 walks for High-A Lancaster in the Astros' chain. "I'm trying to become more consistent, a better player later on in my career. I'm driving the ball to all fields.

"I've proved to everybody I could run. They don't want me running like crazy, getting myself thrown out when the team doesn't need it. Right now, I'm in my development phase in the minor leagues and learning when I can and can't run."

<OFFER>DeShields' father (of the same name) was an elite base stealer, but the youngster possesses more of a stocky build, one that scouts hope can develop more power. The younger DeShields is only 20, so fantasy owners aren't going to see him until probably 2015, but keep his name on the radar. Despite running less often and less effectively this season (30-for-43 in steals), that hardly means he can't be a 50-steal leadoff guy in the big leagues.

Hamilton's situation is obviously different, since the Cincinnati Reds are contenders and now-disappointed fantasy owners selected him on the premise that he'd run wild in the big leagues all season. I felt even prior to the season (and still do) that he wouldn't the call until September. Hamilton, 22, struggled in spring training with the Reds (.192, 9 strikeouts in 26 at-bats), and his current .300 OBP at Triple-A Louisville fails to impress. Plus, he has been learning a new position, center field. Hamilton feels he has handled the position change well and that he's ready for the majors. My feeling is he doesn't make a big impact for fantasy owners until 2014, when he's the likely leadoff hitter and center fielder, with Shin-Soo Choo moving on.

"Last year was about running, this year is planned different," Hamilton said. "This year, it's more about which pitch to go on, when to run, situations. Big league hitters can drive you in more. They've talked to me about when it's a good time to run."

Philadelphia Phillies lefty prospect Jesse Biddle was even more honest about his progress and how statistics don't tell the complete story. He's 3-9 with a 3.33 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and more strikeouts than innings pitched at Double-A Reading, a sort of Cole Hamels-esque example of why win-loss record often tells us little about actual performance. What matters to Biddle is that he's making progress.

"Sometimes the results aren't there, but that's why they have minor league baseball, to work on things," Biddle, a Philly product, noted. "For instance, in my last game, I threw a good changeup, got ahead of a guy 0-1. And I'm supposed to be working on my changeup. So my catcher calls another changeup, and normally I'd probably shake him off. But I'm trying to get reps with that pitch, and he hits a home run. That's very frustrating for me in a game and makes me want to pull my hair out, like 'why do I have to do this, I don't want to throw my changeup.' At the beginning of the season, I was probably throwing three of them per game, but I wasn't getting any better with it.

"I was pitching well, but was that where I needed to be, would that get me called up to the big leagues? Probably not. That's just going to get me to have a good season in Double-A, and that's not my goal. My coaches were happy with it. More often from not, you're going to learn from that. That will make me a better pitcher in the long run. It's so hard to see when you're young."

Sign me up for Biddle in late 2014. Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Archie Bradley essentially agreed with Biddle's assertion, and again, this is why some prospects with great numbers aren't viewed as potential All-Stars, while others with lesser ones are trusted.

"That's the thing, I had to quit worrying about strikeouts," said Bradley, who tossed a perfect inning Sunday and boasts a 2.49 ERA through 13 starts at Double-A Mobile. "You learn that as you mature, pitching to contact is key. Strikeouts are nice, but get some ground balls and you can pitch into the seventh, eighth and then ninth inning. My pitching coach Dan Carlson stresses that numbers are nice, and we don't like giving up runs or hits, but everything you do here is to prepare you for the big leagues. Being young, it's tough to keep it in perspective."

Biddle and Bradley were two of the more impressive pitchers Sunday. Biddle earned the win by retiring four hitters and flashing a big-time curveball. Bradley throws hard, and it's easy to see how he'll be a reliable strikeout pitcher in the big leagues. He spoke glowingly of how Diamondbacks colleague and All-Star Patrick Corbin has been a different pitcher this season, dropping more than two runs off his major league ERA, but also of how it's important to see how Wade Miley, successful as a rookie in 2012 but struggling a bit this season, handles himself. "You watch those guys and you learn," Bradley said. "It's about consistency, getting ahead in the count on the first pitch, controlling the at-bat. That's the key."
 

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All-Star pitcher interviews: Locke, Kimbrel
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Eric Karabell
There's perhaps no All-Star who has been more of a surprise this season than Pittsburgh Pirates lefty Jeff Locke. After all, he's not a particularly hard thrower and wasn't raved about as a prospect, and yet he has won eight of 10 decisions so far, with a cool 2.15 ERA that ranks second to only Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw among all qualified hurlers. Jeff Locke? Really? Well, I admit I've been skeptical of him continuing his success, so when I saw him being relatively ignored at Monday's All-Star media day -- at least compared to David Wright, Bryce Harper, Chris Davis, guys like that -- I had to ask him about his success. His comments were certainly revealing.

"No, I'm not surprised, but I know that everybody else is, so that's what is fun for me," the enthusiastic, well-spoken Locke told me. "I don't throw 100 [mph], and I don't have 100 strikeouts yet [he has 73], and I have a lot of walks. But you know what? I don't have a lot of runs, and that's what's important to me.

"I played minor league baseball with Justin Wilson, a bullpen guy we have. I always had command in the minor leagues and he had the stuff, but he walked lot of guys. We were opposites. He threw real hard and didn't know where it was going, and I just didn't walk anybody. We always said if I could just have your stuff and you could have my command. But he always told me nobody is touching home plate. I might walk people and might give up my hits, but they're not touching that white thing."

<OFFER>Locke is right in that he has managed to keep runners from not scoring despite some somewhat troubling underlying numbers. Yes, Locke is striking out a mere six per nine innings, which Kershaw usually does by the fourth inning. Yes, Locke is tied for ninth in the big leagues in free passes, and that's dangerous. His xFIP is 4.25, nearly double his current ERA, and surely his incredibly low BABIP-against of .216, which leads all of baseball, should normalize and create issues. He also leads all pitchers in strand rate, at 83.3 percent. The baserunners he puts on just haven't been scoring. But then again, luck -- Pirates fans and fantasy owners won't approve of that word -- doesn't necessarily have to even out. I'm selling him being a top-25 starting pitcher in the second half (he's currently 24th on the Rater), but could he remain worth owning in standard mixed leagues? Well, I suppose, but you can see I'm skeptical. Wins tell us nothing. Locke is on pace for 127 strikeouts, but he's not focusing on accumulating them, either.

"Obviously I'm not walking people on purpose, but at the same time I'm probably not throwing the greatest 3-1 pitches either," said Locke, originally an Atlanta Braves draft pick in 2006 who was acquired by the Pirates when they traded Nate McLouth in June 2009. "I've been around the game long enough to know these are guys that can hit. Sometimes I think I would rather put them on base than give them something to hit with two guys on. I know I have been very fortunate with runners on. I'm aware of everything. I put myself in that position and had to get out of these jams. I'm nothing super special, so that's why I'm in kind of a pinch-me moment around here [with the All-Stars]."

Well, applaud Locke for his honesty and recognition of strand rate, and hey, I'm rooting for the 25-year-old. But I don't believe his second half will be as good as his first. (That doesn't mean the Pirates won't make the playoffs. I predict they will!)

Other pitchers I caught up with Monday include Tampa Bay Rays lefty Matt Moore, Baltimore Orioles right-hander Chris Tillman, Chicago White Sox right-hander Jesse Crain and Atlanta Braves closer Craig Kimbrel.

Moore spoke of being able to avoid the big innings this season, somewhat explaining why 2012 wasn't his true breakout season. Even now I worry about his walk rate. The only pitchers with more than his 55 walks are Jason Marquis and Lucas Harrell, not exactly Koufax and Drysdale. Moore owns a fancy 13 wins, but don't let that fool you into thinking he has had a fantastic season. His 1.29 WHIP is worse than 56 qualifying starting pitchers, including Colorado Rockies Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin. "I'm winning games because I'm not messing up a lot," Moore explained. "In a lot of games, my teammates have scored five or six runs by the fourth inning. I just manage the game and give up a few runs, but not five or six. I've been able to pitch with a lead." This is true; Moore has been generously supported, ranking fourth among qualified major league starters in run support. By the way, American League All-Star starter Max Scherzer (13-1) is second in run support, behind only the Cardinals' Lance Lynn (11-4, but with a 4.00 ERA).

Tillman (11-3) is also enjoying a win total he perhaps hasn't deserved; his ERA is 3.95, and as with Locke, his left-on-base percentage of 82.4 percent is noteworthy, and likely not sustainable. Only Locke and, to my surprise, New York Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda have a higher rate. Tillman's FIP is 4.95. Hey, it helps having Manny Machado and J.J. Hardy on the left side of the infield. Tillman credited his breakout campaign to hard work, and "a little bit of consistency." As he put it, "Young guys earlier in their career learn preparation for the game, getting a routine set they can trust, and that makes all the difference in the world on the field."

I asked Moore and Tillman if they pay any attention to sabermetrics, and they looked at me as if I had two heads. Tillman said he does watch video, but that he has "a pretty good idea what to do from hitter to hitter anyway." Moore said sabermetrics don't affect how he prepares for a game. "You guys take care of that stuff before [the game], and after that it's all us." Well then! I suspect Moore doesn't care that his xFIP is 4.26. Perhaps he shouldn't. Basically it's just the walks keeping him from top-20 status, in my mind.

Crain is currently nursing a shoulder problem and is probably another week or so from rejoining the White Sox. Fantasy owners think they have little reason to own his 0.74 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, because he hasn't saved any games. However, Crain is certainly capable of helping a fantasy team, and after the last-place White Sox sent lefty Matt Thornton packing to the Boston Red Sox last week, Crain could be the next on the move. And there's a chance he could close elsewhere. Rockies lefty Rex Brothers is the only big league relief pitcher with a better WAR (Wins Above Replacement) than Crain, and that includes all closers. I asked Crain if he could close, because fantasy owners should be aware that it could happen later this month with a trade or Addison Reed injury.

"I have always wanted to be a closer, I've just never had an opportunity," said Crain, who has yet to allow a home run in 2013. (Meanwhile, San Diego Padres closer Huston Street has allowed 10 homers in 30 1/3 innings.) Said Crain: "I became comfortable throwing in the seventh and eighth innings and realizing that's my job. I take pride in that, take pride in coming in with guys on base. A lot of times I come in in tougher situations than the closer does, and I throw a lot more than the closer does. Closers often have the least amount of appearances on the team."

That last point is mighty interesting, how so many closers are underused, so I figured I'd ask Crain about the difference between being a setup man and a closer. He was a closer in college and in the minor leagues, and I have no doubt he would have 25 saves right now -- like an Edward Mujica type who spent years setting up -- if the opportunity had presented it itself. Others think a closer needs experience in the role, and must learn how to deal with pressure. Crain pretty much dismissed that. "I think it's just as tough, if not tougher, in the eighth inning," said Crain, who has four career saves. "Sometimes we come in during the seventh and get an out or two, and sometimes the toughest part of a lineup is in the eighth inning. No, I don't think there's a difference."

Perhaps Kimbrel would disagree. My only real concern with the top closer in baseball is not really the drop in his strikeout rate this season (he's still 12th among relievers in strikeouts), but rather his health. He has been worked hard the past few seasons, and I can't help but notice his top two setup men, lefties Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters, are both recovering from Tommy John surgeries. That doesn't mean Kimbrel will get hurt, but in general, relievers can't throw 100 mph for too many consecutive seasons without some hiccup. It's why closers are poor keeper-league investments.

"You can't predict the future, but you give it your all and condition yourself to do the small things to stay healthy," said Kimbrel, who is tied for fifth in the majors in saves with unlikely All-Star Mujica. I asked Kimbrel more about the health concerns, whether he worries about injury. "Sure, but my arm tells me that, on certain days, you're not going to throw 99 or 98 mph. It might be only 95 that day, one of those things that isn't max effort. I'm not going to push it so far that I hurt myself. My arm tells me how hard I'm able to throw." Well, fantasy owners hope there are no issues this season -- and I'm not suggesting there will be -- but even the top closers do get hurt, so think twice about other keeper options.
 

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All-Star hitter interviews: Kipnis, Zobrist
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The St. Louis Cardinals are one of baseball's most successful organizations, in part because they think progressively and try new things. Coaxing more defensive versatility from their hitters is one of the more obvious themes, and certainly the fact that Matt Carpenter was chosen as a National League All-Star this season is proof of that. On Monday's media day at New York's Citi Field, I spoke to Carpenter and his teammate Allen Craig about how the organization thinks a bit differently, and how that has not only helped those guys, but fantasy owners as well.

Carpenter was largely an unknown prior to this season. He was hardly a top prospect, even though he was a good minor league hitter with upside. In three minor league seasons, he was primarily a third baseman, and he played mostly at first base, third base and in the outfield for St. Louis last season. But the Cardinals had a need at second base and told Carpenter, 27, late last season to prepare to play there in 2013. Not only do the defensive metrics show a steady player in that sense, but offensively he has been tremendous as a leadoff option, and he's second in all of baseball in runs scored.

<OFFER>"I'd be lying if I told you I thought I'd be an All-Star second baseman, score 100 runs, do all these things," said Carpenter, who is hitting .321 and is on pace for 16 home runs, 78 RBIs and 125 runs scored. "I was confident in my ability and still am, and knew if I got a chance to play, I could be a successful player. Being a leadoff guy, the approach I had before is exactly the same, and it fits well in this position. I'm still learning what kind of player I am. It's been crazy to have this success."

Carpenter was one of my sleepers in March, mainly because of the opportunity he was getting. I didn't think he'd score 125 runs. Others felt he wouldn't transition well to second base and we'd see prospect Kolten Wong, who played in Sunday's Futures Game, at that spot. Undrafted in most fantasy leagues, Carpenter is No. 42 overall on the Player Rater for 2013, fourth among second basemen, and he's eligible at four different positions (first, second and third base, and in the outfield). That fantasy flexibility is invaluable. A left-handed hitter, Carpenter is hitting .296 against lefty pitchers (.332 versus righties), and .330 as a leadoff hitter. He's 11th in baseball in on-base percentage. This is a worthy All-Star, and credit the Cardinals for trying something different. I'm not selling high on Carpenter. It all seems legit to me.

Sitting next to Carpenter during the NL All-Star player availability session was yet another example of the Cardinals thinking outside the box. Allen Craig is an All-Star first baseman today, and longtime Cardinals great Albert Pujols is, well, not an All-Star anymore. The Cardinals took a lot of flak for letting Pujols walk, but Craig has been considerably better since the start of 2012. Craig played in the outfield, with occasional starts at second or third base, in 2010 and 2011 so the team could get his bat in the lineup, and now look at him. He's tied for fourth in baseball in RBIs (74), thanks in part to Carpenter often being on base in front of him, and is a first-time All-Star.

"I think it started with Tony [La Russa] when I came up in a bench role. We had first base and the outfield solidified, so I found myself playing a little bit of third and second and had to be flexible to get at-bats," said Craig, a career .310 hitter over more than 1,100 at-bats. "[Manager Mike] Matheny has carried it over with Matt. I knew he could do it. If you've ever been around Matt, you know he's a gamer, loves the game, and when I found out he was working out at second base, I had no doubt he'd work hard. He's been great defensively, and he could always hit. The leadoff spot fits him perfectly. He's always been a guy that can take pitches, he's not afraid of getting two strikes, and he doesn't strike out much."

Good for the Cardinals and good for fantasy owners, as Carpenter and Craig are fantasy mainstays at this point. Like many, I was skeptical about Carpenter making the transition, but he has done so successfully, and let's just say the next time you see someone getting opportunity at a new position, especially a Cardinal (Wong in the outfield, prospect Oscar Taveras in center field for Jon Jay, perhaps?), don't be so quick to dismiss them.

Tampa Bay Rays All-Star Ben Zobrist knows all about defensive versatility. It helped him gain a big league job, and this season he's eligible at second base, shortstop and in the outfield. I've been a fan of him for years, in large part because of his offensive versatility; he averaged 19 home runs and 18 stolen bases from 2009-12. But being able to plug a guy into multiple spots in a fantasy lineup adds to his value. That's an underrated facet in both fantasy and the big leagues.

"I think it has been underrated, but it's changing," said Zobrist, who was also an All-Star in 2009. "There are a lot of other guys in the league becoming more like utility guys. It's just about being a good athlete. I'm telling young players all the time to move around and learn new positions if it gets you more at-bats. If the organization is for it, go for it. It made me more valuable to my team."

I have Zobrist ranked around my top 50 players overall, even with his numbers a tad depressed, so clearly I'm a fan. Use him at middle infield if you can. I asked him if there was a reason his offensive numbers were so much better in 2012 when he played shortstop (.949 OPS) as opposed to second base (.660 OPS). He didn't think it meant anything, other than to say, "I tend to hit a bit better in the second half than the first, and I just played more shortstop in the second half last year." Fair enough, and good to know. Fantasy owners tend to overthink things like this.

Zobrist also spoke of the mental aspect of changing positions, how for some players it can be a challenge. "There can be a mental strain while switching around, especially if you're young. Because of focusing on that, it's harder to focus on other things." Well, when I saw Toronto Blue Jays slugger Edwin Encarnacion available to speak, I had to ask the former third baseman about the fielding angle.

"Sure, I feel good now, but before there was more pressure when I was at third base, because everyone was focusing on that," said Encarnacion, who played third base for the Cincinnati Reds from 2005-09, and after playing 10 games at the hot corner this season, he's eligible in many fantasy leagues there again. Of course, now he's a veteran coming off a 42-homer season and on his way to a repeat. "Sometimes you just need more experience," Encarnacion said. "This game is not easy. I took a little more time [to emerge] because I was injured a lot early in career. The last couple years I've been healthy and could work more on hitting."

Here are various thoughts from other All-Star hitters I spoke with Monday:

• Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt ranks fifth overall on the Player Rater, and let's be clear, while his .313 average, 21 homers and 77 RBIs are a big part of that, it's his stolen base prowess that has been the differentiator. It's why I liked him for 2013, thinking the 18 bases he stole last year was repeatable, despite a lack of, um, blazing speed. "I think it might sound dumb, but you try to do the best you can with that," said Goldschmidt, who leads all first base-eligible players with nine steals. "In the minor leagues, our baserunning coordinator, Joel Youngblood, told me, 'Hey, you can steal bases.' I try to work with him to get better, smarter." I asked Goldschmidt if a 30-homer/30-steal season was ever a consideration, and he laughed. "Well, I wouldn't complain about that."

• Speaking of stolen bases, only Boston Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury has more of them this season than San Diego Padres shortstop Everth Cabrera. Cabrera didn't look like much of a hitter the past few seasons, but now he's hitting .291, drawing walks (he has a .373 OBP) and even flashing a bit of power (four homers). Cabrera says none of this is surprising to him, though he laughed when I suggested 75 stolen bases would be nice. "Oh my! We'll see, but I lost like 17 games because of a hamstring injury. I feel really good now," said Cabrera. "This offseason I worked a lot on my hitting, like putting the ball in play with two strikes, not trying to do too much. I don't like saying what number I can steal. You never know in this game. I do want like 50 or more. I can get that. We'll see."

• And finally, I had to talk to Cleveland Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis, one of my favorite success stories. Kipnis surprised many in his breakout 2012 by stealing so many bases (31), but this year he's running even more and, as he said, "trying to avoid slumps, or at least minimize them." After sputtering down the stretch last year, Kipnis hit only .200 in April. But since June 1, he has hit .384, and he's now the top second baseman on the ESPN Player Rater, on pace for 22 home runs, 97 RBIs and 36 steals. Robinson Cano is, of course, awesome, but he's not going to provide as much in one of those categories (SBs).

I asked Kipnis why he didn't run as much in the minor leagues but seems awfully motivated to do so now. "I just forgot to steal in the minor leagues," he said with a smile. "I stole all the time in high school and college, but once I got to the minor leagues and was playing in the infield, I had a lot on my mind. I was still successful, though." He's right; he was 12-for-13 on steal attempts in 2011 for Triple-A Columbus. That's good to know, and let's just say I won't doubt Kipnis as he continues on his path to my top 20 overall.
 

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Second-half ranks: Top 250

By Fantasy Staff | ESPN.com

The second half is all about second chances. A clean slate. An arbitrary but cosmetically pleasant split of the season into two manageable gaps. Great second halves will increase a players' draft stock for the following year, and sometimes serve as a harbinger of greatness to come: Jose Bautista hit two home runs before the All-Star break in 2009. He hit 11 in the second half and 54 the following season.

Of course, sometimes a poor second half will create fantasy sleepers. When the much-hyped Mike Trout was called up just prior to the All-Star break in 2011, he carried with him great expectations as one of the game's top prospects. His .220 average, five homers and four steals in 123 at-bats told us nothing of the MVP-worthy monster season that would follow in 2012.

But we're not worried about 2014 in these rankings. We're not even worried about the entirety of 2013. These rankings are for the next two and a half months of the season, and that is all. They do not attempt to predict how players will finish the season overall, as they do not take into account what has already happened. Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes' injuries will impact their overall numbers, but today, they're healthy, and that's all that matters.

If you're interested in what has happened so far, check out the Player Rater. If you're interested in how to value a player such as Jurickson Profar long-term, check out Tristan H. Cockcroft's keeper rankings. If you're interested in how we think the rest of the season will play out, well, you've come to the right place.

The panel of voters includes Cockcroft, Eric Karabell, Brendan Roberts, AJ Mass and Todd Zola, as well as the Answer Guys' Shawn Cwalinski and Dave Hunter. Each was asked to submit his top 250 for the second half. A total of 322 players received at least one vote. When not assigned a rank by all of our panelists, a value of "260" was given to account in the average. All 322 players, from Miguel Cabrera to Manny Ramirez, are accounted for in the positional breakdown of the rankings. To sort by any one panelist's rankings, click on their initials at the top of the rankings column.

[h=3]2013 Fantasy Baseball Top 250 for the second half[/h]<!-- begin inline 1 -->Filter By Position: Top 250 | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | DH | SP | RP
<!-- end inline 1 -->
Rank (May), name, eligibility, teamTCEKBRAJMTZSCDHAVG
1. (1) Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Det11111111.0
2. (4) Mike Trout, OF, LAA22222222.0
3. (5) Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Col43433433.4
4. (3) Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY34346343.9
5. (24) Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Ari77694776.7
6. (6) Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pit5551410567.1
7. (9) Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD816108178910.9
8. (68) Chris Davis, 1B/OF, Bal6611247102312.4
9. (12) Joey Votto, 1B, Cin12171672161112.9
9. (11) David Wright, 3B, NYM9815627151012.9
11. (22) Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/3B, Tor131023155132114.3
12. (20) Adrian Beltre, 3B, Tex24922129141715.3
13. (8) Prince Fielder, 1B, Det18148202816816.0
14. (19) Jose Bautista, OF, Tor221871812201816.4
15. (17) Adam Jones, OF, Bal172293611121217.0
15. (10) Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Col32151452325517.0
17. (28) Adam Wainwright, SP, StL112812113492017.9
18. (15) Evan Longoria, 3B, TB1411181731311319.3
19. (15) Felix Hernandez, SP, Sea1523191036291420.9
20. (2) Ryan Braun, OF, Mil251228218411621.6
21. (26) Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Bos2919201926172522.1
22. (23) Buster Posey, C/1B, SF2135131324372824.4
23. (14) Bryce Harper, OF, Wsh2813312245112224.6
24. (29) Cliff Lee, SP, Phi2632271632192625.4
25. (41) Carlos Gomez, OF, Mil1926212513215525.7
26. (67) Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cle3420244422231526.0
27. (167) Hanley Ramirez, 3B/SS, LAD1021353314343726.3
27. (31) Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Bos3131173816272426.3
29. (47) Allen Craig, 1B/OF, StL4427364015263131.3
30. (21) Ian Kinsler, 2B, Tex3533393243241932.1
31. (27) Yu Darvish, SP, Tex2025262659305133.9
32. (54) Max Scherzer, SP, Det1656302875182936.0
33. (87) Jean Segura, SS, Mil3624256842225639.0
34. (55) Matt Harvey, SP, NYM3842322764323939.1
35. (7) Justin Upton, OF, Atl5044384225433439.4
36. (36) Madison Bumgarner, SP, SF2754413044364639.7
37. (32) Stephen Strasburg, SP, Wsh3039404157284740.3
38. (62) Jay Bruce, OF, Cin4330424938395241.9
39. (154) Jose Reyes, SS, Tor3929338519474242.0
40. (40) Alex Rios, OF, CWS5851534820354344.0
41. (NR) Yasiel Puig, OF, LAD6750345330543045.4
42. (13) Justin Verlander, SP, Det2336294585733546.6
43. (49) Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Wsh4276632352403347.0
44. (44) Chris Sale, SP, CWS4648542929487947.6
45. (127) Michael Cuddyer, OF/1B, Col8840377318564050.3
46. (25) Albert Pujols, 1B, LAA5366454351514450.4
47. (80) David Ortiz, DH, Bos4741563735578250.7
48. (33) Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cin5265483455584551.0
49. (51) Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atl4187433162494851.6
50. (75) Yadier Molina, C, StL6445444753427052.1
51. (39) Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, LAD5564593561603853.1
51. (60) Ian Desmond, SS, Wsh5643624677385053.1
53. (82) Manny Machado, 3B, Bal7137525872335353.7
54. (43) David Price, SP, TB3347617096522755.1
55. (29) Matt Holliday, OF, StL62624650331013655.7
56. (34) Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cin7753517256444156.3
57. (59) Aroldis Chapman, SP/RP, Cin5193643983595463.3
58. (76) Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atl4974605970558464.4
59. (104) Starling Marte, OF, Pit8134749840745865.6
60. (88) Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Mia40385012865825765.7
61. (37) Alex Gordon, OF, KC9168586147766867.0
62. (105) Carlos Beltran, OF, StL70525575685510268.1
63. (94) Nelson Cruz, OF, Tex7963706688616570.3
64. (70) Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Wsh4581666799638171.7
65. (74) Hunter Pence, OF, SF10358687954469872.3
66. (58) Austin Jackson, OF, Det5971919463686272.6
67. (69) Gio Gonzalez, SP, Wsh37794989103787673.0
68. (45) Ben Zobrist, OF/2B/SS, TB9955767190646173.7
69. (262) Domonic Brown, OF, Phi73605716266456675.6
70. (18) Matt Kemp, OF, LAD123897211549503275.7
70. (64) Mat Latos, SP, Cin65736554118777875.7
72. (42) Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Oak84757992391087378.6
73. (161) Everth Cabrera, SS, SD744947141109677179.7
74. (53) Carlos Santana, C/1B, Cle114707751128666481.4
75. (46) Cole Hamels, SP, Phi636178801011038882.0
76. (214) M. Carpenter, 1B/2B/3B/OF, StL105469313748916082.9
77. (83) Josh Hamilton, OF, LAA86788911380864983.0
78. (52) Anthony Rizzo, 1B, CHC13485825679709485.7
79. (77) Joe Mauer, C/1B, Min93966757136758787.3
80. (56) James Shields, SP, KC78699276152698088.0
81. (71) Chase Utley, 2B, Phi108991086373947288.1
82. (38) Billy Butler, 1B, KC1166773691191156388.9
83. (73) Mark Trumbo, OF/1B, LAA137778078787210189.0
84. (96) Dexter Fowler, OF, Col120831028669719389.1
85. (107) Mariano Rivera, RP, NYY5710984651008313089.7
86. (135) Hisashi Iwakuma, SP/RP, Sea971048887941005989.9
87. (209) Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oak1095771132678111490.1
88. (81) Desmond Jennings, OF, TB92868382116977790.4
89. (57) Matt Moore, SP, TB691158588127658690.7
90. (141) Jason Grilli, RP, Pit7510781771246211291.1
91. (79) Zack Greinke, SP, LAD487298147126886992.6
92. (117) Joe Nathan, RP, Tex851246960133899593.6
93. (108) Jered Weaver, SP, LAA6182104150711108394.4
94. (86) Jose Altuve, 2B, Hou83989711791878994.6
95. (90) Hiroki Kuroda, SP, NYY68921058310810510495.0
96. (63) CC Sabathia, SP, NYY6010090641611168596.6
97. (200) Kenley Jansen, RP, LAD54136113122608412098.4
98. (130) Howard Kendrick, 2B, LAA126949911084859799.3
99. (97) Sergio Romo, RP, SF125135106527492117100.1
100. (34) Starlin Castro, SS, CHC144847510113211967103.1
101. (98) Torii Hunter, OF, Det1461161039646106115104.0
102. (131) Mike Minor, SP, Atl72911019514093137104.1
103. (94) Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Phi1021421095511399116105.1
104. (102) Mike Napoli, C/1B, Bos188117861055879109106.0
105. (85) Anibal Sanchez, SP, Det107971106216398106106.1
106. (60) Michael Bourn, OF, Cle95127951209814475107.7
107. (142) Aaron Hill, 2B, Ari164591261305095134108.3
108. (47) Matt Cain, SP, SF10180871038225074111.0
109. (146) Homer Bailey, SP, Cin66125129102117122123112.0
110. (197) Edward Mujica, RP, StL11213210710612096128114.4
111. (111) Rafael Soriano, RP, Wsh8214111481146113125114.6
111. (136) Shelby Miller, RP/SP, StL104889497182104133114.6
113. (128) Wilin Rosario, C, Col138137961199580143115.4
114. (122) Brett Gardner, OF, NYY15612612112141111142116.9
115. (158) Greg Holland, RP, KC8014911891134102155118.4
116. (84) Jason Heyward, OF, Atl1311021251538714092118.6
117. (139) Kyle Seager, 3B, Sea1291431309992112127118.9
118. (99) Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Cle98118119129142123107119.4
119. (176) Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC1111011361439716490120.3
120. (131) Coco Crisp, OF, Oak17312311110076130131120.6
121. (110) Jeff Samardzija, SP, CHC87106112125139154124121.0
122. (113) Clay Buchholz, SP, Bos9410811693174138126121.3
123. (121) Alejandro De Aza, OF, CWS171129115131102109105123.1
123. (92) Elvis Andrus, SS, Tex147114133135110120103123.1
125. (220) Patrick Corbin, SP, Ari8911112415516490154126.7
126. (112) Lance Lynn, SP, StL9614711790176152110126.9
127. (114) Jim Johnson, RP, Bal110145122109157126122127.3
128. (140) Addison Reed, RP, CWS12115414084129114152127.7
129. (209) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pit100103100159187155100129.1
130. (170) Glen Perkins, RP, Min106151123104144125162130.7
131. (134) Fernando Rodney, RP, TB90161143114131143141131.9
132. (100) Doug Fister, SP, Det13316412774177107146132.6
133. (102) Jake Peavy, SP, CWS124150139112160118139134.6
134. (109) Shane Victorino, OF, Bos18517215313481129108137.4
135. (106) Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phi155110146136154149118138.3
136. (77) Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Mil21695131133112179113139.9
137. (126) A.J. Burnett, SP, Pit132113150124202136132141.3
138. (164) Nick Markakis, OF, Bal222121142146115117129141.7
139. (177) Kendrys Morales, 1B, Sea16513416214093150149141.9
139. (192) Nate McLouth, OF, Bal213130120148150121111141.9
141. (50) Chase Headley, 3B, SD14317912811615118791142.1
142. (93) Martin Prado, OF/2B/3B, Ari141122132126191157136143.6
143. (65) Pablo Sandoval, 3B, SF159105137123NR13396144.7
144. (148) Casey Janssen, RP, Tor136166161108138145165145.6
145. (190) Grant Balfour, RP, Oak127155148152122153172147.0
146. (173) Alfonso Soriano, OF, CHC219140152142105127147147.4
147. (207) Travis Wood, SP, CHC174119151167125166158151.4
148. (147) Derek Holland, SP, Tex140128144111226139174151.7
149. (203) Bobby Parnell, RP, NYM117183134127130159214152.0
150. (189) Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, LAD139131138186208132135152.7
151. (244) Ernesto Frieri, RP, LAA142167164180107137178153.6
152. (144) Norichika Aoki, OF, Mil245146171107111147151154.0
153. (119) Matt Wieters, C, Bal203144147138178124148154.6
154. (71) Carl Crawford, OF, LAD17013815811820023499159.6
155. (252) Justin Masterson, SP, Cle169205149197155128140163.3
156. (182) J.J. Hardy, SS, Bal168156167161184146164163.7
157. (236) Jonathan Lucroy, C, Mil150168157203147134189164.0
158. (242) Matt Garza, SP, CHC76229156228156162144164.4
159. (185) Victor Martinez, C, Det162188145182123182170164.6
159. (123) R.A. Dickey, SP, Tor128162155175195216121164.6
161. (228) Ervin Santana, SP, KC157112165183234131176165.4
162. (186) C.J. Wilson, SP, LAA113211168164165171177167.0
163. (66) Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY11990135204104NRNR167.4
164. (183) Adam LaRoche, 1B, Wsh194139170168179148180168.3
165. (204) Jayson Werth, OF, Wsh177159175169148168185168.7
166. (275) Adam Lind, 1B, Tor183200184196114170138169.3
167. (125) Kris Medlen, SP/RP, Atl166194141151180192171170.7
168. (NR) Leonys Martin, OF, Tex193178166NR37173190171.0
169. (302) Bartolo Colon, SP, Oak153173159200207189119171.4
170. (241) Brian McCann, C, Atl135186154189213135206174.0
171. (213) Alexei Ramirez, SS, CWS201158169207143161188175.3
172. (253) Jose Fernandez, SP, Mia118175172173250160183175.9
173. (250) Daniel Murphy, 2B, NYM176152179226159151201177.7
174. (179) Jeremy Hellickson, SP, TB151212188149167214167178.3
175. (91) Johnny Cueto, SP, Cin211177190144223175145180.7
176. (89) Jon Lester, SP, Bos145133173139NRNR160181.4
177. (245) Steve Cishek, RP, Mia158226197171172188163182.1
178. (281) Adam Dunn, 1B, CWS19517118124189191224184.6
179. (NR) Koji Uehara, RP, Bos180184196NR106141227184.9
180. (NR) Francisco Liriano, SP, Pit122160194NR204167198186.4
181. (288) Wil Myers, OF, TB160120160250186207225186.9
182. (160) Erick Aybar, SS, LAA190195183178231172173188.9
183. (165) Rafael Betancourt, RP, Col182198211170212181186191.4
184. (124) Melky Cabrera, OF, Tor24023018517486NR166191.6
185. (277) Michael Brantley, OF, Cle230208187238137198157193.6
186. (256) Colby Rasmus, OF, Tor204234198206141218159194.3
187. (227) Jed Lowrie, SS/2B, Oak186181217166209174228194.4
188. (279) Jhonny Peralta, SS, Det225165177222232158197196.6
189. (NR) Julio Teheran, SP, Atl115239176237NR156194196.7
189. (258) Jarrod Parker, SP, Oak130182195NR153197NR196.7
191. (149) Alex Cobb, SP, TB167232204145NR221153197.4
192. (202) Justin Morneau, 1B, MinNR206180191181165203198.0
193. (256) A.J. Griffin, SP, Oak184204210NR145195192198.6
194. (145) Todd Frazier, 3B/1B, CinNR196163158239163221200.0
195. (188) Chris Perez, RP, Cle149223213246199178193200.1
196. (116) Alcides Escobar, SS, KCNR233192156189224150200.6
197. (211) Ichiro Suzuki, OF, NYY241189191202211203181202.6
197. (170) Tim Lincecum, SP, SF199153203184193NR226202.6
199. (NR) Jeff Locke, SP, Pit205187189NR188183208202.9
200. (222) Chris Carter, 1B/OF, Hou233203212192166208207203.0
200. (NR) John Lackey, SP, Bos148213178236NR142244203.0
200. (157) Tim Hudson, SP, Atl221219225160168NR168203.0
203. (131) Brett Lawrie, 3B, Tor238163207219169NR187206.1
204. (219) Salvador Perez, C, KC152201240224NR177204208.3
205. (152) Lorenzo Cain, OF, KCNR169208165183NR219209.1
206. (150) Tom Wilhelmsen, RP, SeaNR192219154171212NR209.7
207. (153) Tommy Milone, SP, Oak179246216172216NR182210.1
208. (NR) Raul Ibanez, OF, Sea243148174233NR185241212.0
209. (231) Josh Johnson, SP, Tor154190201NR192NR229212.3
210. (230) Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B, SD200185233195NR196222213.0
211. (180) Huston Street, RP, SD189225234245185205210213.3
212. (267) Brandon Belt, 1B, SF207176231220230233209215.1
213. (187) Paul Maholm, SP, Atl202180202201NR202NR215.3
214. (223) Mitch Moreland, 1B, TexNR217222177206211216215.6
215. (118) Yovani Gallardo, SP, Mil224202182163221NRNR216.0
216. (168) Rickie Weeks, 2B, Mil210242199188NR229202218.6
217. (196) Brandon Moss, 1B/OF, Oak247227205181NR201211218.9
218. (NR) James Loney, 1B, TBNR174209223238180249219.0
219. (NR) Mike Leake, SP, Cin187220193NR243184247219.1
219. (170) Andrelton Simmons, SS, AtlNR231229187218230179219.1
221. (NR) Joaquin Benoit, RP, Det172NR227NR158199NR219.4
222. (310) Gerardo Parra, OF, AriNR209214244121NR231219.9
223. (271) Brandon Beachy, SP, Atl191240NR243229193184220.0
224. (303) Jose Veras, RP, Hou215210238NR196176NR222.1
225. (301) Rajai Davis, OF, TorNR157223NRNR206195223.0
225. (NR) Daniel Nava, OF/1B, BosNR191200249NR186215223.0
227. (151) Nick Swisher, OF/1B, CleNR222218157224246243224.3
228. (233) David Freese, 3B, StL235214186239244236217224.4
229. (195) Dan Uggla, 2B, Atl197228242210NR245196225.4
229. (239) Kyle Lohse, SP, Mil161248228225241215NR225.4
231. (101) B.J. Upton, OF, AtlNR224230193NRNR156226.1
232. (155) Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B, CleNR247206176NR190248226.7
233. (280) Matt Joyce, OF, TBNR241215230173231240227.1
234. (175) Michael Morse, OF, Sea208NR249212NR210199228.3
235. (184) Andre Ethier, OF, LAD231216244179NRNR213229.0
236. (NR) Ricky Nolasco, SP, LAD175237243235NR194NR229.1
237. (293) Kevin Gregg, RP, CHC178197247NRNR232234229.7
238. (229) Tony Cingrani, RP/SP, Cin217170235NRNR247223230.3
239. (221) Omar Infante, 2B, DetNRNR245194205227232231.9
240. (137) Paul Konerko, 1B, CWSNRNR232211170235NR232.6
241. (194) Justin Ruggiano, OF, MiaNR245224205NRNR175232.7
242. (264) Andrew Cashner, RP/SP, SD232NR226NR194220242233.4
242. (163) Ryan Dempster, SP, Bos228199NR227NRNR200233.4
244. (234) Marco Scutaro, 2B/SS, SFNR215NR185240242233233.6
245. (159) Lance Berkman, 1B, TexNRNRNR208149NRNR236.7
246. (NR) Marcell Ozuna, OF, MiaNRNRNRNR190204235238.4
247. (NR) Dan Straily, SP, Oak237NRNRNR135NRNR238.9
248. (NR) Chris Tillman, SP, Bal163243241NRNRNR246239.0
249. (169) Michael Saunders, OF, SeaNRNRNR209NRNR169239.7
250. (NR) Jason Castro, C, Hou223NRNR240NR200237240.0

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hacheman@therx.com
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Top 250 keeper-league rankings

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Let's face a simple reality: You cannot win every league every season. No matter how hard you try, it just won't happen.
This is especially true in a keeper, or "dynasty," league, where long-term roster construction takes on both greater importance and difficulty, and where contender-pretender trades can quickly shift competitive balance in-season. To win your keeper league is to achieve an honor worthy of acknowledgement.
Conversely, to know when you can't win is also a skill deserving of praise.
Perhaps as critical as adding those final pieces to a championship puzzle is recognizing these two season stages: The first is when your keeper-league roster is doomed to be an also-ran in the given season; the second one is when your keeper league's trade market offers the richest prospect haul. These two do not necessarily coincide; that's why recognizing each and deciding when to act is such a critical skill of a keeper-league owner.
Generally speaking, this is about the time of year when those stages arrive. Trading season is heating up, with the deadline in ESPN standard leagues arriving 16 days from now. In your league, perhaps it arrives in 14 days, or 45, or some number in between. (Ask your commissioner or check your league settings immediately if you don't know.) It's up to you to determine the best time for your team to act, and the peak point of the trade market in your league.
Today, let's give you a head start on your planning with one of my most requested columns: It's time for a midseason update to my top 250 keeper-league rankings.

[h=3]The rankings formula[/h]
As always, I remind that it is impossible to craft a set of keeper rankings that will be of equal utility to every owner, because few keeper leagues are identical in structure. Consider the variables:
• Player pricing: Do you draft or auction players, and do you keep players in the round they are picked, the auction price you paid, or are prices irrelevant?
• Number of keepers: Can you keep 1, 5, 10 or perhaps your entire roster, and must teams retain the same number of players?
• Contract length: Is there a limitation on the number of seasons you can keep a player, and is there annual price inflation?
• Farm teams: Does your league include minor leaguers and do these players automatically carry over, or are they also priced?
• Your contender status: Are you in the hunt, in a rebuilding state or are you somewhere in between?
It's up to you to do the homework assessing each of these valuation factors, recalculating, if necessary, these keeper rankings for your needs. For example, there's no way I'd trade an $8 Domonic Brown for a $28 Jay Bruce if I wasn't in contender mode, despite the fact that Bruce ranks 21 spots higher. As a contender, though, I might consider it … though I'd probably push for an additional perk, like a throw-in or some auction dollars, considering their close rank but disparity in price.
This is the player valuation formula I used:
• 2013 second-half performance: 10 percent.
• 2014 performance: 22.5 percent.
• 2015 performance: 22.5 percent.
• 2016 performance: 22.5 percent.
• 2017 performance and beyond: 22.5 percent.
The rationale for these numbers is simple: Equal weighting for each of the upcoming four seasons as well as the remainder of this one. As for why 2013 -- scaling that percentage to remaining games -- is roughly equal in weight to 2017, bear in mind that we already provided updated rankings for fantasy owners focusing solely on this year; they were published Wednesday and can be found right here. If you're a keeper-league owner still in the hunt in 2013 -- that's always my primary recommended strategy, if you have even the slightest chance of winning -- consider this list more of a "price guide" for determining appropriate trade value for your up-and-coming prospects and youngsters.

[h=3]Tristan's top 250 keeper rankings[/h]
Note: Position eligibility is determined based on a minimum of 20 games or the position the player appeared at most often in 2012, or 10 games played at a position in 2013. Players' projected future positions are considered in the ranking. Players' listed ages are as of July 16, 2013.
Players' 2013 preseason ("2013 Pre") and peak rankings in past keeper lists ("Prev. Peak") are also provided: These lists have been published semiannually since 2010, with "preseason" and "midseason" designated to differentiate the different times of the years in question. For example, Jason Kipnis is listed with a peak of 44 at "2012 Midseason," meaning that his best all-time rank was 44th, in the July 2012 list. A "--" means that the player has never before cracked my keeper rankings.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<CENTER>Rank</CENTER>Player<CENTER>Team</CENTER><CENTER>2013
Elig. Pos.</CENTER>
<CENTER>Age</CENTER><CENTER>2013
Pre</CENTER>
<CENTER>Prev.
Peak</CENTER>
<CENTER>Peaked
When?</CENTER>
1Mike TroutLAAOF21112013 Preseason
2Miguel CabreraDet3B30322012 Preseason
3Carlos GonzalezColOF271162012 Midseason
4Bryce HarperWshOF20772013 Preseason
5Andrew McCutchenPitOF26422012 Midseason
6Manny MachadoBal3B2156562013 Preseason
7Giancarlo StantonMiaOF23552013 Preseason
8Buster PoseySFC/1B2613132013 Preseason
9Paul GoldschmidtAri1B2543432013 Preseason
10Ryan BraunMilOF29212012 Preseason
11Chris DavisBal1B/OF271561242010 Preseason
12Robinson CanoNYY2B30862011 Preseason
13Prince FielderDet1B291052010 Preseason
14Adam JonesBalOF2730302013 Preseason
15Joey VottoCin1B291212012 Midseason
16Clayton KershawLADSP2515152013 Preseason
17Troy TulowitzkiColSS281812011 Midseason
18Felix HernandezSeaSP272082011 Midseason
19David WrightNYM3B302252010 Midseason
20Evan LongoriaTB3B272342011 Preseason
21Hanley RamirezLAD3B/SS292612011 Preseason
22Jay BruceCinOF2624212011 Midseason
23Stephen StrasburgWshSP2417172013 Preseason
24Justin UptonAtlOF25932012 Preseason
25Matt HarveyNYMSP241711712013 Preseason
26Jean SeguraMilSS232152152013 Preseason
27Jacoby EllsburyBosOF2950142012 Preseason
28Jason KipnisCle2B2668442012 Midseason
29Carlos GomezMilOF271381382013 Preseason
30Matt KempLADOF28642012 Preseason
31Yu DarvishTexSP2663632013 Preseason
32Madison BumgarnerSFSP2333332013 Preseason
33Pedro AlvarezPit3B26124772011 Preseason
34Wil MyersTBOF2270702013 Preseason
35David PriceTBSP2725252013 Preseason
36Dustin PedroiaBos2B2927212012 Preseason
37Freddie FreemanAtl1B2361612013 Preseason
38Justin VerlanderDetSP3019192013 Preseason
39Jose BautistaTorOF3235142012 Midseason
40Max ScherzerDetSP2897862011 Preseason
41Adrian BeltreTex3B3440402013 Preseason
42Adam WainwrightStLSP3177142010 Midseason
43Domonic BrownPhiOF25--782011 Midseason
44Jordan ZimmermannWshSP2765512012 Midseason
45Ian DesmondWshSS2757572013 Preseason
46Carlos SantanaCleC/1B2747382012 Preseason
47Edwin EncarnacionTor1B/3B3045452013 Preseason
48Yasiel PuigLADOF22------
49Cole HamelsPhiSP2931232012 Preseason
50Yoenis CespedesOakOF2739392013 Preseason
51Gio GonzalezWshSP2742422013 Preseason
52Chris SaleCWSSP2467662012 Midseason
53Shelby MillerStLSP/RP221331332013 Preseason
54Starlin CastroChCSS2321212013 Preseason
55Matt MooreTBSP2448482013 Preseason
56Homer BaileyCinSP271821822013 Preseason
57Austin JacksonDetOF2652522013 Preseason
58Ryan ZimmermanWsh3B2849142011 Midseason
59Allen CraigStL1B/OF2885852013 Preseason
60Desmond JenningsTBOF2662372012 Preseason
61Jason HeywardAtlOF2314142013 Preseason
62Zack GreinkeLADSP2941212010 Preseason
63Mat LatosCinSP2582402011 Preseason
64Jose ReyesTorSS3032182010 Preseason
65Yadier MolinaStLC3191792012 Midseason
66Adrian GonzalezLAD1B3155102011 Preseason
67Jose FernandezMiaSP20------
68Dexter FowlerColOF271191162012 Midseason
69Eric HosmerKC1B2344292012 Preseason
70Craig KimbrelAtlRP2564612012 Preseason
71Matt CainSFSP2836262012 Midseason
72Aroldis ChapmanCinRP/SP2571692012 Midseason
73Asdrubal CabreraCleSS2776542012 Midseason
74Albert PujolsLAA1B331622010 Preseason
75Alex GordonKCOF2979312012 Preseason
76Josh DonaldsonOak3B27------
77Mike MinorAtlSP252072072013 Preseason
78Jose AltuveHou2B2374742013 Preseason
79Anthony RizzoChC1B2366662013 Preseason
80Joe MauerMinC/1B3073102010 Preseason
81Ian KinslerTex2B3128192012 Midseason
82Jered WeaverLAASP3046332012 Midseason
83Matt CarpenterStL2B/1B/3B/OF27------
84Mark TrumboLAAOF/1B2772592012 Midseason
85Jurickson ProfarTex2B2095952013 Preseason
86Jarrod ParkerOakSP241181152012 Midseason
87Shin-Soo ChooCinOF3188332011 Preseason
88Oscar TaverasStLOF211071072013 Preseason
89Chase HeadleySD3B2951512013 Preseason
90Starling MartePitOF241681682013 Preseason
91Gerrit ColePitSP221631632013 Preseason
92Everth CabreraSDSS262441902010 Preseason
93Kenley JansenLADRP25129842012 Midseason
94Salvador PerezKCC2387872013 Preseason
95CC SabathiaNYYSP3286292011 Preseason
96Matt WietersBalC2738382013 Preseason
97Jeff SamardzijaChCSP281701702013 Preseason
98Julio TeheranAtlSP222421092011 Midseason
99Elvis AndrusTexSS2459272012 Midseason
100Kyle SeagerSea3B251491492013 Preseason
101Billy ButlerKC1B2737372013 Preseason
102Cliff LeePhiSP3484182010 Midseason
103Johnny CuetoCinSP2769692013 Preseason
104Alex RiosCWSOF3293312010 Midseason
105Pablo SandovalSF3B2653302010 Preseason
106Lance LynnStLSP261641642013 Preseason
107Anibal SanchezDetSP291221052011 Midseason
108B.J. UptonAtlOF2854282010 Preseason
109Curtis GrandersonNYYOF3258392012 Midseason
110Wilin RosarioColC241031032013 Preseason
111Howie KendrickLAA2B30159782012 Preseason
112Jedd GyorkoSD2B/3B241551552013 Preseason
113Brandon BeachyAtlSP261391302012 Preseason
114Patrick CorbinAriSP23------
115Greg HollandKCRP271571572013 Preseason
116Josh ReddickOakOF261011012013 Preseason
117Brett LawrieTor3B2334202012 Midseason
118Matt HollidayStLOF3360292010 Midseason
119Matt GarzaChCSP29146722012 Preseason
120Billy HamiltonCinSS/OF221131132013 Preseason
121James ShieldsKCSP31104822012 Preseason
122Zack WheelerNYMSP/RP231951582012 Midseason
123Michael BournCleOF3081562012 Midseason
124Nolan ArenadoCol3B22--1972012 Preseason
125Brandon BeltSF1B251761122011 Midseason
126Brandon PhillipsCin2B3283342010 Midseason
127Todd FrazierCin3B/1B271151152013 Preseason
128Kris MedlenAtlSP/RP2780802013 Preseason
129Jonathan LucroyMilC271341342013 Preseason
130Anthony RendonWsh2B/3B232252252013 Preseason
131Kendrys MoralesSea1B30202462011 Preseason
132Derek HollandTexSP261911292012 Preseason
133Addison ReedCWSRP241481232012 Midseason
134Jeremy HellicksonTBSP26114792011 Midseason
135Rafael SorianoWshRP331371122010 Midseason
136Brett GardnerNYYOF29130912010 Midseason
137Colby RasmusTorOF26200622012 Midseason
138Ben ZobristTBOF/2B/SS3278692010 Midseason
139Nick FranklinSeaSS/2B22--2442011 Midseason
140Jon LesterBosSP29128172010 Midseason
141Hunter PenceSFOF30152412012 Preseason
142Tim LincecumSFSP29112132010 Preseason
143Jonathan PapelbonPhiRP32127892010 Midseason
144Jed LowrieOakSS/2B291931432012 Midseason
145Ernesto FrieriLAARP271721332012 Midseason
146Lorenzo CainKCOF272262262013 Preseason
147Carl CrawfordLADOF3112042010 Midseason
148Nick CastellanosDet3B212402402013 Preseason
149Doug FisterDetSP291541542013 Preseason
150Tyler SkaggsAriSP221991992013 Preseason
151Brian McCannAtlC29160422010 Preseason
152Aaron HillAri2B31105642010 Preseason
153Sergio RomoSFRP302372372013 Preseason
154Clay BuchholzBosSP28--702011 Preseason
155Chris TillmanBalSP25------
156Andrelton SimmonsAtlSS231691692013 Preseason
157Leonys MartinTexOF25------
158Mike ZuninoSeaC22------
159Matt AdamsStL1B24------
160Martin PradoAri3B/OF/2B29116842010 Midseason
161David OrtizBosDH37175672012 Midseason
162Josh HamiltonLAAOF3229222011 Preseason
163Adam EatonAriOF241921922013 Preseason
164Bobby ParnellNYMRP28------
165Brett AndersonOakSP2599832010 Preseason
166Christian YelichMiaOF/1B212142142013 Preseason
167Ian KennedyAriSP28108942012 Preseason
168J.J. HardyBalSS301801262012 Preseason
169Tony CingraniCinSP/RP24------
170Xander BogaertsBosSS202232232013 Preseason
171Jim JohnsonBalRP301971502012 Midseason
172Glen PerkinsMinRP30------
173Josh JohnsonTorSP29110112010 Midseason
174Alcides EscobarKCSS261311312013 Preseason
175Miguel SanoMinSS201881882013 Preseason
176Yonder AlonsoSD1B262171822012 Preseason
177Michael WachaStlRP/SP22------
178Hisashi IwakumaSeaSP/RP32------
179Jimmy RollinsPhiSS34121442010 Preseason
180Trevor RosenthalStlRP23------
181Nick MarkakisBalOF29158362010 Preseason
182Ben ReverePhiOF251351352013 Preseason
183Jason CastroHouC26------
184Yovani GallardoMilSP2789492012 Preseason
185Daniel MurphyNYM2B282432192012 Midseason
186Logan MorrisonMiaOF/1B25--802011 Midseason
187Mike NapoliBosC/1B31181562012 Preseason
188R.A. DickeyTorSP381021022013 Preseason
189Matt JoyceTBOF282341832012 Preseason
190Nelson CruzTexOF33126372011 Preseason
191Travis d'ArnaudNYMC241741742013 Preseason
192Brandon MorrowTorSP2894942013 Preseason
193Oswaldo ArciaMinOF22------
194Carlos MartinezStLSP/RP212332232012 Midseason
195David FreeseStL3B30144882012 Midseason
196Miguel MonteroAriC301421262010 Preseason
197Michael MorseSeaOF31132922012 Preseason
198Carlos BeltranStLOF36147822010 Preseason
199Chris PerezCleRP282181152011 Preseason
200Drew SmylyDetRP/SP24--2362012 Midseason
201Jake PeavyCWSSP321611302010 Preseason
202Hyun-Jin RyuLADSP262502502013 Preseason
203Erick AybarLAASS292061372012 Preseason
204Jhoulys ChacinColSP25--692011 Midseason
205David RobertsonNYYRP28--2332012 Midseason
206Melky CabreraTorOF281001002013 Preseason
207Alejandro De AzaCWSOF292081492012 Midseason
208Yasmani GrandalSDC241511512013 Preseason
209Will MiddlebrooksBos3B2492922013 Preseason
210Gordon BeckhamCWS2B26238532010 Preseason
211Ike DavisNYM1B2690902013 Preseason
212Huston StreetSDRP291781362010 Preseason
213Tommy MiloneOakSP261651652013 Preseason
214Jacob TurnerMiaSP22--1742012 Preseason
215Alexei RamirezCWSSS31--942011 Preseason
216Taijuan WalkerSeaSP202092092013 Preseason
217Evan GattisAtlC/OF26------
218Aaron HicksMinOF23------
219George SpringerHouOF23------
220Shane VictorinoBosOF32140882010 Preseason
221Rickie WeeksMil2B30109372011 Midseason
222Aramis RamirezMil3B35166702010 Preseason
223Mitch MorelandTex1B27--2192011 Midseason
224Rex BrothersColRP25------
225Fernando RodneyTBRP362102102013 Preseason
226Michael PinedaNYYSP24232522011 Midseason
227Alex CobbTBSP25------
228Justin MastersonCleSP28--2212012 Midseason
229Marcell OzunaMiaOF22------
230Michael CuddyerColOF/1B342451022012 Midseason
231Jesus MonteroSeaC2396732012 Preseason
232Jonathan SingletonHou1B21--2012011 Midseason
233Tom WilhelmsenSeaRP292222222013 Preseason
234Mark AppelHouSP22------
235C.J. WilsonLAASP322031002012 Midseason
236Jhonny PeraltaDetSS31--1782012 Preseason
237Kevin GausmanBalSP22------
238Victor MartinezDetC34145522010 Preseason
239Jarrod SaltalamacchiaBosC28--2422012 Midseason
240Adam LindTor1B30--322010 Preseason
241Chase UtleyPhi2B34216122010 Preseason
242Dan UgglaAtl2B33185392011 Preseason
243Adam LaRocheWsh1B331831522010 Midseason
244Delino DeShields Jr.Hou2B/OF202292292013 Preseason
245Steve CishekMiaRP27------
246Chris ArcherTBSP24------
247Francisco LirianoPitSP29--432010 Midseason
248Cameron MaybinSDOF26123632012 Preseason
249Mark TeixeiraNYY1B3398132010 Midseason
250Travis WoodChCSP26--2382011 Preseason

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>


 

hacheman@therx.com
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Second-half rankings reactions: Hitters
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Eric Karabell

Oh, how things can change in only eight weeks.

The last time the ESPN fantasy crew supplied its rest-of-season rankings in mid-May, Atlanta Braves outfielder Justin Upton was a consensus top-10 choice, Baltimore Orioles slugger Chris Davis wasn’t even close, and Yasiel Puig wasn’t on any radar screen. Now things are a lot different in the mid-July rankings. It’s noteworthy how far some of the most previously trusted hitters fell, such as Upton, Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp, Chicago Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro and San Diego Padres third baseman Chase Headley.

With the All-Star break in the rearview mirror, fantasy owners are generally past the point of asking when it’s time to re-analyze options and potentially give up on players. We’re way past that time. Upton’s rise and subsequent fall have been documented, Kemp’s problem has and continues to be health, and Castro’s issue is perhaps indifference, but in the case of Headley, we have several relevant factors to consider for him and others with similar factors. He blasted onto the scene after years of relative obscurity as one of fantasy’s most influential hitters the second half of 2012, hitting an incomprehensible 23 home runs, but he’s hitting all of .229 today with one home run over the past month. Some fantasy owners want to invest based on 2012; others want to simply move on based on 2013. What’s the right move?

Knowing when to give up on a player reaching his proven potential is a tricky proposition. People aren’t mass-dropping Headley (though he is only 89.9 percent owned), but I doubt many are viewing him as the eighth-round pick he was in ESPN live drafts before the season. In mid-May, he was ranked 50th overall in these rankings, which seems ridiculous compared to his No. 141 slot today. I see no reason to exalt Headley to close to top-100 status today, but the truth is all players are different. With Josh Hamilton, for example, a recent hot streak probably kept him in the top 100 overall. For Headley, perhaps the broken thumb that interrupted the start to his season remains a problem, but he’s showing no signs of a 23-homer second half. I ranked him 179th overall. I’d still own him in 10- and 12-team formats, but I’m not optimistic he will suddenly turn things around. Many players perform through pain, and while it’s nice they can help their teams, especially in relation to what else that team might use, fantasy owners often can upgrade. I hope Headley starts hitting for power and batting average, but I expect this looks more like a lost season.

Here are other hitters (I’ll tackle the pitchers Thursday) of varying value that ended up in our top 100 overall but saw major changes in their ranking over two months, both good and bad.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks (from 24th to 5th): Seems like he usurped Justin Upton’s top-10 spot for many. The power is legitimate, and he runs enough to matter.

Chris Davis, 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles (from 68th to 8th): I believe he’ll lead the majors with 54 home runs and still hit .290 overall. Incredible season.

Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (from 2nd to 20th): I thought I was too low dropping him to 12th. Seems like my colleagues were even less confident. Thumb injury or suspension? I’m not terribly worried about either.

Hanley Ramirez, SS/3B, Los Angeles Dodgers (from 167th to 27th): I ranked him in the third round in March, and while he’s a bit too hot recently, it’s 30/30 talent. Yes, take him over Puig.

Jean Segura, SS, Brewers (from 87th to 33rd): Clearly people didn’t believe back in May. Now they do. I suspect we’ve all overrated him a bit based on his underwhelming June, but at least he’ll keep running.

Justin Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves (from 7th to 35th): It’s all about the timing, and for him, he hit 12 home runs in April and four since. If it’s reversed, he’d be coveted. Rumors of a hand injury from April seem relevant, and now his calf hurts. Sell if you still can, though I ranked him 44th, so I still like him.

Jose Reyes, SS, Toronto Blue Jays (from 154th to 39th): Wasn’t healthy in May, now he is. It drastically changes an outlook when a fellow is actually active. He also looks terrific and is flashing power.

Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers (from not ranked to 41st): That’s a fair spot for a relatively unproven guy who will see batting average regression. I ranked him 50th, so I clearly like him.

Michael Cuddyer, 1B/OF, Colorado Rockies (from 127th to 45th): Veteran guy who hasn’t hit more than 20 home runs in five of past six seasons, so it was reasonable to be skeptical. Not anymore, though the .274 career hitter is not going to hit .330 all year. We all probably overranked him.

Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels (from 25th to 46th): I ranked him the worst at No. 66 but feel good about it. Honestly, not even close to the same guy he was, and when the Angels are sub-.500 to start September, I doubt the hobbled Pujols plays regularly the entire month, if much at all.

David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox (from 80th to 47th): I’d take him over Pujols the rest of the way, without hesitation. I had Ortiz 41st. Probably not good enough!

Starling Marte, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (from 104th to 59th): Frankly, the rise is not enough. I have him 34th. Some batting average regression coming, but he’s legit.
Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies (from 262nd to 69th): An awesome May and still usable since. But is he really this good? Will he keep running?

Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers (from 18th to 70th): I’m skeptical he hits for much power when he returns from the disabled list. Lost season, bounce-back option in 2014.

Matt Carpenter, everything, St. Louis Cardinals (from 214th to 76th): Nice to see my colleagues come around. I was the only one to rank Carpenter in the top 200 in May. He’s going to score 110 runs!

Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oakland Athletics (from 209th to 87th): He’s legit, my No. 57 player, and I’m not sure why others are concerned about him.

Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs (from 34th to 100th): Even I had to presume this is not the same player we believed in, but it’s premature to trust a Nick Franklin-type over him.

Others: Michael Bourn left our top 100 because he’s not running enough. … Jason Heyward left because he’s not healthy enough, and not running. … Kyle Seager is close to breaking into our top 100. I should have ranked him better, in retrospect. … Welcome back to the top 120, Eric Hosmer! … Goodbye from the top 100, Elvis Andrus. What a disaster of an offensive season. … Three of us had Pedro Alvarez at precisely No. 100. Interesting. Power was always legitimate, though. … I’m the only one with Aramis Ramirez in the top 100. He’s worth it. … Now that Nate McLouth isn’t running much, most of us overrated him. … One of us had Pablo Sandoval in the top 100; another did not rank him at all. I had him 105. Find another player with that disparity. … I just did: Carl Crawford. I’ll take Sandoval. … Good to see my trust in Jonathan Lucroy paid off. We all liked him. … Major difference in opinion on Curtis Granderson, with me at No. 90 and two unranked decisions. I don’t get that. … Welcome to the ranks, speedy Leonys Martin! One colleague had him 37th, another unranked. I was conservative at No. 168. … I’m clearly enamored with Raul Ibanez as compared to others. … I did not rank Michael Morse, Omar Infante or Paul Konerko. The Morse one could be a mistake.
 

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Second-half ranks: Top 250

By Fantasy Staff | ESPN.com

The second half is all about second chances. A clean slate. An arbitrary but cosmetically pleasant split of the season into two manageable gaps. Great second halves will increase a players' draft stock for the following year, and sometimes serve as a harbinger of greatness to come: Jose Bautista hit two home runs before the All-Star break in 2009. He hit 11 in the second half and 54 the following season.

Of course, sometimes a poor second half will create fantasy sleepers. When the much-hyped Mike Trout was called up just prior to the All-Star break in 2011, he carried with him great expectations as one of the game's top prospects. His .220 average, five homers and four steals in 123 at-bats told us nothing of the MVP-worthy monster season that would follow in 2012.

But we're not worried about 2014 in these rankings. We're not even worried about the entirety of 2013. These rankings are for the next two and a half months of the season, and that is all. They do not attempt to predict how players will finish the season overall, as they do not take into account what has already happened. Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes' injuries will impact their overall numbers, but today, they're healthy, and that's all that matters.

If you're interested in what has happened so far, check out the Player Rater. If you're interested in how to value a player such as Jurickson Profar long-term, check out Tristan H. Cockcroft's keeper rankings. If you're interested in how we think the rest of the season will play out, well, you've come to the right place.

The panel of voters includes Cockcroft, Eric Karabell, Brendan Roberts, AJ Mass and Todd Zola, as well as the Answer Guys' Shawn Cwalinski and Dave Hunter. Each was asked to submit his top 250 for the second half. A total of 322 players received at least one vote. When not assigned a rank by all of our panelists, a value of "260" was given to account in the average. All 322 players, from Miguel Cabrera to Manny Ramirez, are accounted for in the positional breakdown of the rankings. To sort by any one panelist's rankings, click on their initials at the top of the rankings column.

[h=3]2013 Fantasy Baseball Top 250 for the second half[/h]<!-- begin inline 1 -->Filter By Position: Top 250 | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | DH | SP | RP
<!-- end inline 1 -->
Rank (May), name, eligibility, teamTCEKBRAJMTZSCDHAVG
1. (1) Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Det11111111.0
2. (4) Mike Trout, OF, LAA22222222.0
3. (5) Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Col43433433.4
4. (3) Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY34346343.9
5. (24) Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Ari77694776.7
6. (6) Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pit5551410567.1
7. (9) Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD816108178910.9
8. (68) Chris Davis, 1B/OF, Bal6611247102312.4
9. (12) Joey Votto, 1B, Cin12171672161112.9
9. (11) David Wright, 3B, NYM9815627151012.9
11. (22) Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/3B, Tor131023155132114.3
12. (20) Adrian Beltre, 3B, Tex24922129141715.3
13. (8) Prince Fielder, 1B, Det18148202816816.0
14. (19) Jose Bautista, OF, Tor221871812201816.4
15. (17) Adam Jones, OF, Bal172293611121217.0
15. (10) Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Col32151452325517.0
17. (28) Adam Wainwright, SP, StL112812113492017.9
18. (15) Evan Longoria, 3B, TB1411181731311319.3
19. (15) Felix Hernandez, SP, Sea1523191036291420.9
20. (2) Ryan Braun, OF, Mil251228218411621.6
21. (26) Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Bos2919201926172522.1
22. (23) Buster Posey, C/1B, SF2135131324372824.4
23. (14) Bryce Harper, OF, Wsh2813312245112224.6
24. (29) Cliff Lee, SP, Phi2632271632192625.4
25. (41) Carlos Gomez, OF, Mil1926212513215525.7
26. (67) Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cle3420244422231526.0
27. (167) Hanley Ramirez, 3B/SS, LAD1021353314343726.3
27. (31) Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Bos3131173816272426.3
29. (47) Allen Craig, 1B/OF, StL4427364015263131.3
30. (21) Ian Kinsler, 2B, Tex3533393243241932.1
31. (27) Yu Darvish, SP, Tex2025262659305133.9
32. (54) Max Scherzer, SP, Det1656302875182936.0
33. (87) Jean Segura, SS, Mil3624256842225639.0
34. (55) Matt Harvey, SP, NYM3842322764323939.1
35. (7) Justin Upton, OF, Atl5044384225433439.4
36. (36) Madison Bumgarner, SP, SF2754413044364639.7
37. (32) Stephen Strasburg, SP, Wsh3039404157284740.3
38. (62) Jay Bruce, OF, Cin4330424938395241.9
39. (154) Jose Reyes, SS, Tor3929338519474242.0
40. (40) Alex Rios, OF, CWS5851534820354344.0
41. (NR) Yasiel Puig, OF, LAD6750345330543045.4
42. (13) Justin Verlander, SP, Det2336294585733546.6
43. (49) Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Wsh4276632352403347.0
44. (44) Chris Sale, SP, CWS4648542929487947.6
45. (127) Michael Cuddyer, OF/1B, Col8840377318564050.3
46. (25) Albert Pujols, 1B, LAA5366454351514450.4
47. (80) David Ortiz, DH, Bos4741563735578250.7
48. (33) Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cin5265483455584551.0
49. (51) Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atl4187433162494851.6
50. (75) Yadier Molina, C, StL6445444753427052.1
51. (39) Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, LAD5564593561603853.1
51. (60) Ian Desmond, SS, Wsh5643624677385053.1
53. (82) Manny Machado, 3B, Bal7137525872335353.7
54. (43) David Price, SP, TB3347617096522755.1
55. (29) Matt Holliday, OF, StL62624650331013655.7
56. (34) Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cin7753517256444156.3
57. (59) Aroldis Chapman, SP/RP, Cin5193643983595463.3
58. (76) Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atl4974605970558464.4
59. (104) Starling Marte, OF, Pit8134749840745865.6
60. (88) Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Mia40385012865825765.7
61. (37) Alex Gordon, OF, KC9168586147766867.0
62. (105) Carlos Beltran, OF, StL70525575685510268.1
63. (94) Nelson Cruz, OF, Tex7963706688616570.3
64. (70) Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Wsh4581666799638171.7
65. (74) Hunter Pence, OF, SF10358687954469872.3
66. (58) Austin Jackson, OF, Det5971919463686272.6
67. (69) Gio Gonzalez, SP, Wsh37794989103787673.0
68. (45) Ben Zobrist, OF/2B/SS, TB9955767190646173.7
69. (262) Domonic Brown, OF, Phi73605716266456675.6
70. (18) Matt Kemp, OF, LAD123897211549503275.7
70. (64) Mat Latos, SP, Cin65736554118777875.7
72. (42) Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Oak84757992391087378.6
73. (161) Everth Cabrera, SS, SD744947141109677179.7
74. (53) Carlos Santana, C/1B, Cle114707751128666481.4
75. (46) Cole Hamels, SP, Phi636178801011038882.0
76. (214) M. Carpenter, 1B/2B/3B/OF, StL105469313748916082.9
77. (83) Josh Hamilton, OF, LAA86788911380864983.0
78. (52) Anthony Rizzo, 1B, CHC13485825679709485.7
79. (77) Joe Mauer, C/1B, Min93966757136758787.3
80. (56) James Shields, SP, KC78699276152698088.0
81. (71) Chase Utley, 2B, Phi108991086373947288.1
82. (38) Billy Butler, 1B, KC1166773691191156388.9
83. (73) Mark Trumbo, OF/1B, LAA137778078787210189.0
84. (96) Dexter Fowler, OF, Col120831028669719389.1
85. (107) Mariano Rivera, RP, NYY5710984651008313089.7
86. (135) Hisashi Iwakuma, SP/RP, Sea971048887941005989.9
87. (209) Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oak1095771132678111490.1
88. (81) Desmond Jennings, OF, TB92868382116977790.4
89. (57) Matt Moore, SP, TB691158588127658690.7
90. (141) Jason Grilli, RP, Pit7510781771246211291.1
91. (79) Zack Greinke, SP, LAD487298147126886992.6
92. (117) Joe Nathan, RP, Tex851246960133899593.6
93. (108) Jered Weaver, SP, LAA6182104150711108394.4
94. (86) Jose Altuve, 2B, Hou83989711791878994.6
95. (90) Hiroki Kuroda, SP, NYY68921058310810510495.0
96. (63) CC Sabathia, SP, NYY6010090641611168596.6
97. (200) Kenley Jansen, RP, LAD54136113122608412098.4
98. (130) Howard Kendrick, 2B, LAA126949911084859799.3
99. (97) Sergio Romo, RP, SF125135106527492117100.1
100. (34) Starlin Castro, SS, CHC144847510113211967103.1
101. (98) Torii Hunter, OF, Det1461161039646106115104.0
102. (131) Mike Minor, SP, Atl72911019514093137104.1
103. (94) Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Phi1021421095511399116105.1
104. (102) Mike Napoli, C/1B, Bos188117861055879109106.0
105. (85) Anibal Sanchez, SP, Det107971106216398106106.1
106. (60) Michael Bourn, OF, Cle95127951209814475107.7
107. (142) Aaron Hill, 2B, Ari164591261305095134108.3
108. (47) Matt Cain, SP, SF10180871038225074111.0
109. (146) Homer Bailey, SP, Cin66125129102117122123112.0
110. (197) Edward Mujica, RP, StL11213210710612096128114.4
111. (111) Rafael Soriano, RP, Wsh8214111481146113125114.6
111. (136) Shelby Miller, RP/SP, StL104889497182104133114.6
113. (128) Wilin Rosario, C, Col138137961199580143115.4
114. (122) Brett Gardner, OF, NYY15612612112141111142116.9
115. (158) Greg Holland, RP, KC8014911891134102155118.4
116. (84) Jason Heyward, OF, Atl1311021251538714092118.6
117. (139) Kyle Seager, 3B, Sea1291431309992112127118.9
118. (99) Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Cle98118119129142123107119.4
119. (176) Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC1111011361439716490120.3
120. (131) Coco Crisp, OF, Oak17312311110076130131120.6
121. (110) Jeff Samardzija, SP, CHC87106112125139154124121.0
122. (113) Clay Buchholz, SP, Bos9410811693174138126121.3
123. (121) Alejandro De Aza, OF, CWS171129115131102109105123.1
123. (92) Elvis Andrus, SS, Tex147114133135110120103123.1
125. (220) Patrick Corbin, SP, Ari8911112415516490154126.7
126. (112) Lance Lynn, SP, StL9614711790176152110126.9
127. (114) Jim Johnson, RP, Bal110145122109157126122127.3
128. (140) Addison Reed, RP, CWS12115414084129114152127.7
129. (209) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pit100103100159187155100129.1
130. (170) Glen Perkins, RP, Min106151123104144125162130.7
131. (134) Fernando Rodney, RP, TB90161143114131143141131.9
132. (100) Doug Fister, SP, Det13316412774177107146132.6
133. (102) Jake Peavy, SP, CWS124150139112160118139134.6
134. (109) Shane Victorino, OF, Bos18517215313481129108137.4
135. (106) Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phi155110146136154149118138.3
136. (77) Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Mil21695131133112179113139.9
137. (126) A.J. Burnett, SP, Pit132113150124202136132141.3
138. (164) Nick Markakis, OF, Bal222121142146115117129141.7
139. (177) Kendrys Morales, 1B, Sea16513416214093150149141.9
139. (192) Nate McLouth, OF, Bal213130120148150121111141.9
141. (50) Chase Headley, 3B, SD14317912811615118791142.1
142. (93) Martin Prado, OF/2B/3B, Ari141122132126191157136143.6
143. (65) Pablo Sandoval, 3B, SF159105137123NR13396144.7
144. (148) Casey Janssen, RP, Tor136166161108138145165145.6
145. (190) Grant Balfour, RP, Oak127155148152122153172147.0
146. (173) Alfonso Soriano, OF, CHC219140152142105127147147.4
147. (207) Travis Wood, SP, CHC174119151167125166158151.4
148. (147) Derek Holland, SP, Tex140128144111226139174151.7
149. (203) Bobby Parnell, RP, NYM117183134127130159214152.0
150. (189) Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, LAD139131138186208132135152.7
151. (244) Ernesto Frieri, RP, LAA142167164180107137178153.6
152. (144) Norichika Aoki, OF, Mil245146171107111147151154.0
153. (119) Matt Wieters, C, Bal203144147138178124148154.6
154. (71) Carl Crawford, OF, LAD17013815811820023499159.6
155. (252) Justin Masterson, SP, Cle169205149197155128140163.3
156. (182) J.J. Hardy, SS, Bal168156167161184146164163.7
157. (236) Jonathan Lucroy, C, Mil150168157203147134189164.0
158. (242) Matt Garza, SP, CHC76229156228156162144164.4
159. (185) Victor Martinez, C, Det162188145182123182170164.6
159. (123) R.A. Dickey, SP, Tor128162155175195216121164.6
161. (228) Ervin Santana, SP, KC157112165183234131176165.4
162. (186) C.J. Wilson, SP, LAA113211168164165171177167.0
163. (66) Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY11990135204104NRNR167.4
164. (183) Adam LaRoche, 1B, Wsh194139170168179148180168.3
165. (204) Jayson Werth, OF, Wsh177159175169148168185168.7
166. (275) Adam Lind, 1B, Tor183200184196114170138169.3
167. (125) Kris Medlen, SP/RP, Atl166194141151180192171170.7
168. (NR) Leonys Martin, OF, Tex193178166NR37173190171.0
169. (302) Bartolo Colon, SP, Oak153173159200207189119171.4
170. (241) Brian McCann, C, Atl135186154189213135206174.0
171. (213) Alexei Ramirez, SS, CWS201158169207143161188175.3
172. (253) Jose Fernandez, SP, Mia118175172173250160183175.9
173. (250) Daniel Murphy, 2B, NYM176152179226159151201177.7
174. (179) Jeremy Hellickson, SP, TB151212188149167214167178.3
175. (91) Johnny Cueto, SP, Cin211177190144223175145180.7
176. (89) Jon Lester, SP, Bos145133173139NRNR160181.4
177. (245) Steve Cishek, RP, Mia158226197171172188163182.1
178. (281) Adam Dunn, 1B, CWS19517118124189191224184.6
179. (NR) Koji Uehara, RP, Bos180184196NR106141227184.9
180. (NR) Francisco Liriano, SP, Pit122160194NR204167198186.4
181. (288) Wil Myers, OF, TB160120160250186207225186.9
182. (160) Erick Aybar, SS, LAA190195183178231172173188.9
183. (165) Rafael Betancourt, RP, Col182198211170212181186191.4
184. (124) Melky Cabrera, OF, Tor24023018517486NR166191.6
185. (277) Michael Brantley, OF, Cle230208187238137198157193.6
186. (256) Colby Rasmus, OF, Tor204234198206141218159194.3
187. (227) Jed Lowrie, SS/2B, Oak186181217166209174228194.4
188. (279) Jhonny Peralta, SS, Det225165177222232158197196.6
189. (NR) Julio Teheran, SP, Atl115239176237NR156194196.7
189. (258) Jarrod Parker, SP, Oak130182195NR153197NR196.7
191. (149) Alex Cobb, SP, TB167232204145NR221153197.4
192. (202) Justin Morneau, 1B, MinNR206180191181165203198.0
193. (256) A.J. Griffin, SP, Oak184204210NR145195192198.6
194. (145) Todd Frazier, 3B/1B, CinNR196163158239163221200.0
195. (188) Chris Perez, RP, Cle149223213246199178193200.1
196. (116) Alcides Escobar, SS, KCNR233192156189224150200.6
197. (211) Ichiro Suzuki, OF, NYY241189191202211203181202.6
197. (170) Tim Lincecum, SP, SF199153203184193NR226202.6
199. (NR) Jeff Locke, SP, Pit205187189NR188183208202.9
200. (222) Chris Carter, 1B/OF, Hou233203212192166208207203.0
200. (NR) John Lackey, SP, Bos148213178236NR142244203.0
200. (157) Tim Hudson, SP, Atl221219225160168NR168203.0
203. (131) Brett Lawrie, 3B, Tor238163207219169NR187206.1
204. (219) Salvador Perez, C, KC152201240224NR177204208.3
205. (152) Lorenzo Cain, OF, KCNR169208165183NR219209.1
206. (150) Tom Wilhelmsen, RP, SeaNR192219154171212NR209.7
207. (153) Tommy Milone, SP, Oak179246216172216NR182210.1
208. (NR) Raul Ibanez, OF, Sea243148174233NR185241212.0
209. (231) Josh Johnson, SP, Tor154190201NR192NR229212.3
210. (230) Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B, SD200185233195NR196222213.0
211. (180) Huston Street, RP, SD189225234245185205210213.3
212. (267) Brandon Belt, 1B, SF207176231220230233209215.1
213. (187) Paul Maholm, SP, Atl202180202201NR202NR215.3
214. (223) Mitch Moreland, 1B, TexNR217222177206211216215.6
215. (118) Yovani Gallardo, SP, Mil224202182163221NRNR216.0
216. (168) Rickie Weeks, 2B, Mil210242199188NR229202218.6
217. (196) Brandon Moss, 1B/OF, Oak247227205181NR201211218.9
218. (NR) James Loney, 1B, TBNR174209223238180249219.0
219. (NR) Mike Leake, SP, Cin187220193NR243184247219.1
219. (170) Andrelton Simmons, SS, AtlNR231229187218230179219.1
221. (NR) Joaquin Benoit, RP, Det172NR227NR158199NR219.4
222. (310) Gerardo Parra, OF, AriNR209214244121NR231219.9
223. (271) Brandon Beachy, SP, Atl191240NR243229193184220.0
224. (303) Jose Veras, RP, Hou215210238NR196176NR222.1
225. (301) Rajai Davis, OF, TorNR157223NRNR206195223.0
225. (NR) Daniel Nava, OF/1B, BosNR191200249NR186215223.0
227. (151) Nick Swisher, OF/1B, CleNR222218157224246243224.3
228. (233) David Freese, 3B, StL235214186239244236217224.4
229. (195) Dan Uggla, 2B, Atl197228242210NR245196225.4
229. (239) Kyle Lohse, SP, Mil161248228225241215NR225.4
231. (101) B.J. Upton, OF, AtlNR224230193NRNR156226.1
232. (155) Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B, CleNR247206176NR190248226.7
233. (280) Matt Joyce, OF, TBNR241215230173231240227.1
234. (175) Michael Morse, OF, Sea208NR249212NR210199228.3
235. (184) Andre Ethier, OF, LAD231216244179NRNR213229.0
236. (NR) Ricky Nolasco, SP, LAD175237243235NR194NR229.1
237. (293) Kevin Gregg, RP, CHC178197247NRNR232234229.7
238. (229) Tony Cingrani, RP/SP, Cin217170235NRNR247223230.3
239. (221) Omar Infante, 2B, DetNRNR245194205227232231.9
240. (137) Paul Konerko, 1B, CWSNRNR232211170235NR232.6
241. (194) Justin Ruggiano, OF, MiaNR245224205NRNR175232.7
242. (264) Andrew Cashner, RP/SP, SD232NR226NR194220242233.4
242. (163) Ryan Dempster, SP, Bos228199NR227NRNR200233.4
244. (234) Marco Scutaro, 2B/SS, SFNR215NR185240242233233.6
245. (159) Lance Berkman, 1B, TexNRNRNR208149NRNR236.7
246. (NR) Marcell Ozuna, OF, MiaNRNRNRNR190204235238.4
247. (NR) Dan Straily, SP, Oak237NRNRNR135NRNR238.9
248. (NR) Chris Tillman, SP, Bal163243241NRNRNR246239.0
249. (169) Michael Saunders, OF, SeaNRNRNR209NRNR169239.7
250. (NR) Jason Castro, C, Hou223NRNR240NR200237240.0

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hacheman@therx.com
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Second-half rankings reactions: Pitchers
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Eric Karabell

It didn't take my Twitter followers long to realize that I had ranked pitchers in the ESPN Fantasy midseason rankings a bit lower than my colleagues. Yes, that's by design. My list of those making their living throwing the baseball started with Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw at No. 16 and continued throughout the top 50, but with only 10 of those fellows serving as pitchers. There's incredible pitching depth this season, so the likes of Detroit Tigers right-hander Max Scherzer shouldn't take it personally that I ranked them lower than most of my ESPN colleagues.

Then again, with some of these pitchers, I just might not be as big a believer. For example, when it comes to Scherzer, I'm only partially buying into his amazing first half. I don't care about his fancy win-loss record, because he could just as easily have James Shields' 4-6 mark. By the way, Scherzer and Shields, far apart on our Player Rater because of the wins difference, are ranked 26th and 27th, respectively, in ERA among qualified starting pitchers this season. One of them just happens to be second in baseball in run support. I like Scherzer and I think he's legit, but I also believe his fantasy value is inflated right now. And I'm always willing to move a pitcher for a top offensive player.

<OFFER>So there seems little point in me going in-depth on starting pitchers I ranked worse than colleagues, because it might be most every starting pitcher. Taking my philosophy on value out of the equation, however, and among the names I really ranked lower than the others included Jordan Zimmermann (a lot of wins, but not a great K rate for his overall rank), Matt Moore (a lot of walks), Doug Fister (inconsistent of late, ERA concerns), Jake Peavy (health), Justin Masterson (here come the walks again), C.J. Wilson (will the walks return?), Kris Medlen (does a move to the bullpen await?) and Alex Cobb (when will he pitch again?). But there is good news: I apparently believe in Francisco Liriano! Also, all the relief pitchers seem worse in my rankings, starting with my -- and everyone's -- top closer Craig Kimbrel (87th for me, 49th overall) to potential Tigers stopgap Joaquin Benoit, whom I did not rank.

As I did with the hitters Wednesday, here are pitchers of varying value who saw major adjustments in their rankings, either positively or negatively, from mid-May to this week.

Matt Harvey, New York Mets (from 55th to 34th): I ranked him 33rd in May, so I believed then, and I still do. I think it's foolish to trade him now just because the Mets might shut him down in mid-September. Fantasy owners would be lucky to still have meaningful teams in mid-September, and Harvey can get you there.

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (from 13th to 42nd): Say it ain't so! What a fall. I have him 36th, and admit I don't see a No. 13-overall type of second-half performance pending. But he remains darned good.

James Shields, Kansas City Royals (from 56th to 80th): I just don't see what there is to be afraid of. He's good enough to win plenty from now on, though it's worth a reminder that "luck" doesn't necessarily even out.

Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners (from 135th to 86th): More a "curiosity" two months ago than a safe No. 2 fantasy pitcher, and even lately he has shown some hiccups. I have him ranked at least in the same ballpark as my colleagues (No. 104), but his 11 home runs allowed over his past five outings is a concern.

CC Sabathia, New York Yankees (from 63rd to 96th): Has been better than Iwakuma over the past month and is clearly more accomplished, so I ranked Sabathia a bit better.

Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants (from 47th to 108th): His struggles have been discussed plenty in the first half, but I doubt many of his critics realize his WHIP is better than those of Cole Hamels, Shields, Mat Latos, Matt Moore and Jeff Samardzija. In other words, I'm buying low here.

Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds (from 146th to 109th): He was underrated before his no-hitter, but that's not the case now. He's still worth owning, but he's probably worth more if you trade him.

Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks (from 220th to 125th): I'm surprised I ended up ranking him better than all but two colleagues, but I just don't see him as a fluke, despite his record.

Travis Wood, Chicago Cubs (from 207th to 147th): In hindsight, I think I ranked him a bit too well, considering he's not a hard thrower and is due for some regression. Hey, sometimes I surprise myself.

Matt Garza, Cubs (from 242nd to 158th): He was injured two months ago, now is healthy and is arguably pitching as well as ever. My colleagues ranked him much higher than me, perhaps because of the allure of a possible trade. By the way, his career ERA is 3.80, and at Wrigley Field it's 2.70. Probably means nothing, but I still think he's a tad overrated.

Ervin Santana, Royals (from 228th to 161st): I had already bought in by mid-May, and I ranked him the best of the crew in mid-July, too. Perhaps his eight-run outing last week scared people.

Bartolo Colon, Oakland Athletics (from 302nd to 169th): Well, I don't feel particularly good about my/our rank, but it's certainly possible he keeps pitching well enough to justify this.

Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins (from 253rd to 172nd): In retrospect, how did we not believe in him in May? He's being handled more carefully than Harvey, but Fernandez, who also likely won't be pitching after mid-September, is the bargain.

Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds (from 91st to 175th): His strained lat should keep him sidelined into August, and even then, can he stay healthy? His skills aren't in question, though.

Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox (from 89th to 176th): Wow, two colleagues didn't rank him at all. Somehow I ranked him the best, but in this case it's somewhat misleading. His last month was poor; based on that, I'd buy.

Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates (from unranked to 180th): Frankly, it's hard to believe he has become so relevant, but he has shown no signs of what's currently happening to Lester.

Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves (from unranked to 189th): His legit skills are finally showing in his results. He should stick in the Braves' rotation.

Jarrod Parker, Athletics (from 258th to 189th): Apparently in May, we all basically presumed his April was the real thing, not his 2012. It seems we presumed incorrectly.

Others: Unranked pitchers from May that show up now include Jeff Locke, John Lackey, Mike Leake, Ricky Nolasco, Dan Straily and Chris Tillman. I ranked them all this week, except Straily, who just missed. … Alex Cobb fell 42 spots due to the head injury he suffered on a line drive. The Rays still have no timetable for his return. … Tim Hudson fell 43 spots because, well, why did we do that? Because he's old? His numbers always look the same. … Yovani Gallardo went from 118th to 215th. It's amazing that he was drafted 26th among starting pitchers, on average, in ESPN average live drafts. Never again! … Of course I ranked Ryan Dempster the best. Three colleagues left him out. He's basically strikeouts and nothing else, but I guess I like the strikeouts.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Top 50 MLB prospects update[/h][h=3]Byron Buxton moves to top spot; No. 1 draft pick Mark Appel in top 10[/h]
By Keith Law | ESPN Insider

At the MLB season's midpoint, just past the signing deadline for drafted players, here is a fresh look at the top 50 prospects still in the minor leagues, including a new name on top.

These rankings are based primarily on upside or ceiling, not on proximity to the majors, so the list includes a mixture of players as high as Double-A or Triple-A and a few who have signed but either have yet to make their professional debuts or who have just a few appearances in the low minors.

Players who have already passed the cutoff for Rookie of the Year eligibility are ineligible, as is anyone currently on a major league roster.

Note: I use the 20-80 grading scale in these comments to avoid overuse of the terms "average" and "above average" across the 100 player comments. On that scale, a grade of 50 equals major league average, 55 is above average, 60 is plus, 45 is fringy or below average and so on.



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1. Byron Buxton, CF | Minnesota Twins (age 19)
Current level: High Class A (Fort Myers)
Preseason ranking: 22


I've been a Buxton fan for a while and thought he was the best talent in the 2012 draft, although even I'm a little uncomfortable with the extent of the hype around him right now.
<OFFER></OFFER>

He's explosive across the board, with 80-grade running speed, an 80 arm and the potential for 70 or 80 defense in center, as well as great bat speed and a slightly quieter approach than he had in high school. He has the upside of a top-five overall player in the majors, and I would just like to see him maintain his strong contact rates and patient approach as he faces better pitchers this year and next.

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2. Oscar Taveras, OF | St. Louis Cardinals (age 20)
Current level: Triple-A (Memphis)
Preseason ranking: 2


Taveras might have appeared in the majors by now were it not for recurrent ankle trouble this year, an injury that also knocked him out of the Futures Game. He's still a very high-impact bat, probably the Cardinals' opening day right fielder next April, with big power and tremendous plate coverage.

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3. Xander Bogaerts, SS | Boston Red Sox (age 20)
Current level: Triple-A (Pawtucket)
Preseason ranking: 5


I still see no reason Bogaerts can't stay at short, and he continues to impress with his very quiet setup and swing and strong plate discipline. He's 14 months older than Byron Buxton, but two full levels higher in the minors right now. Jose Iglesias' glove is special, but he's no match for the overall package Bogaerts offers the Red Sox at shortstop.

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4. Miguel Sano, 3B | Minnesota Twins (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (New Britain)
Preseason ranking: 11


He'll always strike out a lot, but that's the nature of the game today, especially when you have this kind of prodigious raw power. When Sano squares one up, Twins fans feel the earth move.

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5. Francisco Lindor, SS | Cleveland Indians (age 19)
Current level: Double-A (Akron)
Preseason ranking: 7


It might be unfair to call Lindor a lower-ceiling guy, although he lacks the MVP or superstar potential of the four guys ahead of him, projecting more as a regular All-Star who gets on base at a high clip with plus defense at short and who boasts a very high probability of becoming that, and soon.

He's just a month older than Buxton, and just moved up to Double-A, which doesn't speak much to their relative ceilings but says a little about Lindor's polish.

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6. Addison Russell, SS | Oakland Athletics (age 19)
Current level: High Class A (Stockton)
Preseason ranking: 10


A slow start due to a back injury masks what a strong season Russell has had as a 19-year-old in the California League, typically a hitters' league but one with very high strikeout rates.

He's hitting .326/.379/.565 since June 1, to choose one arbitrary (Gregorian) endpoint, and continues to impress with his range and especially his hands at shortstop.

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7. Carlos Correa, SS | Houston Astros (age 18)
Current level: Low Class A (Quad Cities)
Preseason ranking: 24


Lost in the hype over Buxton is the strong pro debut for Correa, just 18 years old and already in the Midwest League, posting a .421 OBP (third best in the league, 10 points behind Buxton) and a .455 slugging percentage even though he's barely begun to grow into his 6-foot-4 frame.

He's also been better than expected at shortstop, keeping his body lean and showing better range and hands than he had in high school. He may still outgrow the position, but even at third this could be a special bat.

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8. Archie Bradley, RHP | Arizona Diamondbacks (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Mobile)
Preseason ranking: 29


His command has improved over last year, as well as the control, while he's still in the 93-98 mph range with his heater.

His curveball has been a little less consistent this year, still hard at 79-83 but not quite as sharp as last year, while the changeup continues to improve and should be no worse than a solid-average pitch. The curve is still a swing-and-miss pitch for him, and with the huge fastball and his No. 1 starter build, he's the minors' best pitching prospect.

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9. Mark Appel, SP | Houston Astros (age 22)
Current level: Low Class A (Quad Cities)
Preseason ranking: Ineligible


This year's top draft prospect is now in Class A, still sitting in the mid-90s with above-average command, although I expect Houston will keep his outings short this year to try to build him up slowly for next year. He also has ace potential, with three above-average to plus pitches and an easy delivery he can repeat all day.

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10. Taijuan Walker, RHP | Seattle Mariners (age 20)
Current level: Triple-A (Tacoma)
Preseason ranking: 9


Walker's mid-90s fastball, up to 97 regularly, is incredibly easy, and he still has the loose, athletic body that scouts love to see. This year, he's using a very good cutter as his out pitch, which is good because it's the best secondary weapon he's ever had, but not good because it's come at the expense of his curveball, which has become less tight and is now just a fringy third pitch.

He's still so young and athletic that I wouldn't bet against him, but as close as he is to the majors, he should have a stronger third offering in his arsenal.

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11. Dylan Bundy, RHP | Baltimore Orioles (age 20)
Current level: Has not played (injury)
Preseason ranking: 3


Bundy is out for the year after Tommy John surgery, and probably won't pitch again until mid-2014, pushing his timetable for a return to the majors back significantly.

There's at least an 80 percent chance that he comes back as good as he was before the elbow injury, and probably another 10 percent or so that he comes back as something almost as good, so the odds are the Orioles still have an elite pitching prospect on their hands. We just won't know for a while.

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12. Christian Yelich, OF | Miami Marlins (age 21)
Current level: Double-A (Jacksonville)
Preseason ranking: 6


I love Yelich's swing, one of the best in the minors, but he's had trouble staying healthy this year and, more importantly for these rankings, his inability to hit left-handers isn't going away at all -- he's hitting .182 against southpaws this season.

For a hitter as gifted as he is, he should be making some adjustments, even small ones, against lefties by now.

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13. Jameson Taillon, RHP | Pittsburgh Pirates (age 21)
Current level: Double-A (Altoona)
Preseason ranking: 20


Much like his fellow Pirate Gerrit Cole, Taillon throws gas that's too easy to hit given its velocity, due to a lack of life on the pitch. His season line may be a touch misleading, as his last outing (3 1/2 innings, 10 runs) added eight-tenths of a run to his ERA; he'd allowed just nine earned runs in his previous six outings combined.

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14. Kyle Zimmer, RHP | Kansas City Royals (age 21)
Current level: High Class A (Wilmington)
Preseason ranking: 27


I saw Zimmer recently and wrote about the electric stuff he showed -- a 70-grade fastball, 70 curveball and 60 changeup -- and he's had better results since then, with 36 strikeouts and 3 walks in his past four starts, covering 25 innings. He should be unhittable, but wasn't for almost three months, so the Royals can only hope he's just now approaching his ace potential.

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15. Kris Bryant, OF | Chicago Cubs (age 21)
Current level: Short-season Class A (Boise)
Preseason ranking: Ineligible


Signed to the biggest bonus in this year's draft (as predicted in this space), Bryant has huge raw power from the right side, a rare and valuable commodity in and of itself, and profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat whether he's at third base or in right field. He's yet to play a game as of this writing.

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16. Corey Seager, SS | Los Angeles Dodgers (age 19)
Current level: Low Class A (Great Lakes)
Preseason ranking: 46


Although he's still most likely a third baseman in the end, Seager has been the best hitter in the Midwest League since his return from a DL stint in early June, hitting .342/.439/.586 in that span. He's going to be big -- at 6-4, 215 pounds, he's already bigger than every full-time shortstop in MLB history -- but that's going to produce plus power that makes him a potential All-Star.

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17. Gregory Polanco, OF | Pittsburgh Pirates (age 21)
Current level: Double-A (Altoona)
Preseason ranking: 55


Polanco's BP before Sunday's Futures Game was one of the best of any hitter, showing more power than scouts had seen from him before; it counts more when it shows up during a game, but even knowing he has that raw ability is useful.

I think he's a center fielder long term, although I've heard dissenting opinions on that point; what everyone agrees on is that his swing and advanced plate discipline make him a high-probability hitter.

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18. Aaron Sanchez, RHP | Toronto Blue Jays (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Dunedin)
Preseason ranking: 19


His season's been slowed since a minor shoulder injury in late May led the Jays to shut him down rather than risking structural damage, so he's still more pure potential than results, showing very easy mid- to upper-90s velocity with the chance for two plus secondary pitches.

The lack of reps hurts him most in command, where the clean delivery has yet to translate to above-average location and feel.

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19. Kevin Gausman, RHP | Baltimore Orioles (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Norfolk)
Preseason ranking: 26


In hindsight, Gausman came to the majors too soon, but it doesn't tell us much about his long-term potential other than that he's not ready yet. He didn't use his changeup, which is plus (if not better), enough, and his slider was a little worse than it had been in the minors and last year.

He's back at Triple-A and still projects as at least a solid No. 2 starter as long as all three pitches are there, with no reason they won't be in time.

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20. Jorge Soler, OF | Chicago Cubs (age 21)
Current level: High Class A (Daytona)
Preseason ranking: 42


Soler would have been in the Futures Game and likely in Double-A were it not for a stress fracture that has him on the shelf until at least early August and possibly until instructional league, although he could pick up some needed at-bats in the Arizona Fall League.

He remains a very high-ceiling player, with a quick bat, easy power and running speed, but losing a half-season of reps doesn't help.

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21. Garin Cecchini, 3B | Boston Red Sox (age 22)
Current level: Double-A (Portland)
Preseason ranking: Unranked


Cecchini has just one plus tool, but it's the most important one for a position player -- he can hit, showing an impressive, innate ability to barrel up the ball throughout 2013 now that he's regained the strength he lost after a July 2011 wrist fracture.

He hasn't been running as often this year after rolling his ankle in mid-May, but his base stealing was less about speed than about instincts, as he's become one of the best readers of pitchers' deliveries in the minors.

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22. Nick Castellanos, 3B/OF | Detroit Tigers (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Toledo)
Preseason ranking: 38


Castellanos is now a full-time right fielder, which hurts his potential value relative to what it might have been had he stayed at third base, but he's putting together a solid season as one of the International League's youngest everyday players, working the count more effectively while already setting a career high in home runs.

He might be more above-average regular than superstar after the position switch, which still makes him very valuable and a likely trade target for sellers this month.

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23. Jonathan Gray, RHP | Colorado Rockies (age 20)
Current level: Rookie (Grand Junction)
Preseason ranking: Ineligible


The third overall pick in this year's draft, Gray will touch triple digits with his fastball and complements it with a plus slider. He should be able to reach a full-season league later this summer -- a desirable move for the team, too, since the Rockies' lowest affiliate, Grand Junction, plays at more than three-quarters of a mile above sea level.

Gray is a potential No. 1 starter due to his sturdy 6-4 build and two primary pitches, and should be able to put the mini scandal over his positive amphetamine test from before the draft behind him.

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24. Jackie Bradley Jr., OF | Boston Red Sox (age 20)
Current level: Triple-A (Pawtucket)
Preseason ranking: 40


Hyped way beyond the point of reason after hitting .419/.507/.613 in 62 spring training at-bats, Bradley hit .155/.258/.310 in 58 regular-season at-bats before being demoted and everyone should really remember this next March but won't because reality is boring.

Anyway, Bradley still projects as a plus-plus defender in center who hits for average and gets on base, with just a little power. He'll be an above-average everyday player who'll make a solid, cheap replacement for Jacoby Ellsbury when he likely leaves as a free agent over the winter.

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25. Albert Almora, OF | Chicago Cubs (age 19)
Current level: Low Class A (Kane County)
Preseason ranking: 33


The irony of one of the game's most prominent sabermetrically-inclined front offices overseeing a farm system of guys who walk once a month deserves more attention than it's gotten so far; I wonder if Kris Bryant, who walked a ton in college this spring, will become an unrepentant hacker the moment he gets to Daytona.

Anyway, Almora doesn't walk much, but he's got great feel for the bat, making a lot of hard contact, and plays plus defense in center.

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26. Robert Stephenson, RHP | Cincinnati Reds (age 20)
Current level: Low Class A (Dayton)
Preseason ranking: 48


Stephenson has torn apart Midwest League hitters with just two pitches, a plus-plus fastball and plus-plus breaking ball, and may need to move up a level just to force him to work on his changeup and to continue to refine his fastball command.

He's had no trouble with lefties thus far and has gone eight straight starts where he's walked two batters or fewer. I understand caution with a young pitcher, but Stephenson has ace potential and should be pushed a little to help him achieve it.

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27. Javier Baez, SS | Chicago Cubs (age 19)
Current level: Double-A (Tennessee)
Preseason ranking: 31


The player with the best bat speed in the minors should be higher on this list, in theory, but Baez operates under the strong belief -- not entirely unfounded -- that he can hit anything within a foot of the strike zone, which results in low walk rates and a tendency to give away at-bats when he doesn't get a pitch he can crush right away.

He continues to play solid defense at shortstop, and the power is insane, but it would be nice if someone in this farm system would walk more than twice a month.

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28. Eddie Butler, P | Colorado Rockies (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Modesto)
Preseason ranking: Unranked


Butler was the one player at this year's MLB Futures Game who exceeded expectations. He's got big-time sinking life on his mid-90s fastball, thanks to a low three-quarters arm slot, and pairs it with an upper-80s slider that wipes out right-handed hitters and that he can throw at the back foot of a left-handed hitter.

His changeup has already improved substantially since he entered pro ball last year, and if that continues, he's a potential No. 2 starter or better who gets ground balls and misses bats.

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29. George Springer, OF | Houston Astros (age 23)
Current level: Triple-A (Oklahoma City)
Preseason ranking: 43


Springer's a true five-tool player with big raw power and plus speed and absolutely no two-strike approach, which is the one thing keeping him out of the top 10 on this list; only a handful of players in major league history have played full seasons and struck out at the rate at which Springer has struck out in Double- and Triple-A this year.

If he develops any kind of two-strike approach, though, he's a potential monster, a 30/30 candidate who can get on base and provide solid defense in center or plus defense in a corner.

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30. Kohl Stewart, RHP | Minnesota Twins (age 18)
Current level: Rookie (Gulf Coast)
Preseason ranking: Ineligible


The fourth overall pick in this year's draft, Stewart walked away from a commitment to back up Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M to join the Twins' system as their best pitching prospect, a four-pitch starter up to 97 with a plus slider who needs to work on fastball command and using his lower half more in his delivery.

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31. Henry Owens, LHP | Boston Red Sox (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Salem)
Preseason ranking: Unranked


Owens' fastball has ticked up this year to consistently above-average velocity for a lefty, to go along with the plus changeup, slow curveball and great deception. His main issue now is just a lack of strikes, giving hitters opportunities they wouldn't have if he were getting ahead in the count more frequently and could use his secondary stuff.

He's probably a No. 3 starter, maybe a little more if he's got more velocity in the tank.

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32. Michael Wacha, RHP | St. Louis Cardinals (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Memphis)
Preseason ranking: Unranked


Wacha's brief call-up didn't tell us much about his potential, other than that he doesn't, or the Cardinals don't, believe in his breaking ball enough to use it more than five or six times a game right now. As an above-average fastball/plus-plus changeup guy with plus command, Wacha is a back-end starter already, but could end up a solid mid-rotation guy if that curveball gets just a little bit sharper.

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33. Jonathan Singleton, 1B | Houston Astros (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Oklahoma City)
Preseason ranking: 32


Singleton missed the first 50 games of the season after he tested positive for marijuana, a pointless exercise for everyone involved, and one that may explain why he's struggled so badly in Triple-A after the long layoff -- he struck out 40 times in his first 105 at-bats. He remains a potential impact bat at first base who gets on base and hits for power, although it would be nice to at least see a better contact rate from him this year.

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34. Noah Syndergaard, RHP | New York Mets (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Binghamton)
Preseason ranking: 97


Syndergaard has an easy 70-grade fastball, sitting mid-90s and touching 98 regularly, with a great pitcher's build and repeatable delivery. His secondary stuff is just average, both the curveball and changeup, with a fringy slider that's kind of flat and doesn't suit his arm slot as well as the curve and change do.

The worst-case scenario here is probably a league-average starter between the velocity and outstanding control, with No. 2 starter upside if the breaking ball improves a little more and the fastball command continues to develop. He's become the key guy for the Mets in the R.A. Dickey deal, passing the always-hurt Travis d'Arnaud, whose talent may end up unfulfilled because he can't stay on the field.

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35. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP | Tampa Bay Rays (age 20)
Current level: Low Class A (Bowling Green)
Preseason ranking: 47


Guerrieri's velocity has been off a little this year -- he was up to 97 mph last year and in high school, but has been 89-93 this season with a stiffer delivery and a recent bout of arm trouble, with shoulder fatigue taking him off the Futures Game roster and elbow soreness taking him out of his last start for Bowling Green.

He still has the potential out-pitch curveball and fills up the strike zone, but the lost velocity, hints of arm trouble and makeup questions going back to his prep days all push him down the rankings.

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36. Alen Hanson, SS | Pittsburgh Pirates (age 22)
Current level: High Class A (Bradenton)
Preseason ranking: 34


Overshadowed this year by teammate Gregory Polanco, Hanson remains a work in progress at shortstop; his footwork has been less erratic this year -- he's always had the hands and foot speed for it -- while his throwing has been more so. He has great bat speed and a strong approach, and has bounced back after a rough start to the season in high Class A.

He can run, work the count and square up good stuff, so if he can hit like he did in May and June over a full season, and proves he can stay at shortstop, he's a potential above-average regular for a team that needs a long-term answer at short.

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37. Kyle Crick, RHP | San Francisco Giants (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (San Jose)
Preseason ranking: 76


Crick has flown past teammate Clayton Blackburn this year; Blackburn has better command and control, but Crick has huge stuff, sitting mid-90s and touching 98 with a plus breaking ball but, as you saw in the Futures Game, less than perfect command. He missed two months this year with an oblique strain, punching out 32 and walking 10 across four starts since his return.

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38. Alex Meyer, RHP | Minnesota Twins (age 23)
Current level: Double-A (New Britain)
Preseason ranking: 65


Meyer continues to generate ground balls and miss bats, so while it's not a perfect starter's package, as long as he does the two most important things a starter can do, he should get the chance to work in a major league rotation.

His fastball remains 94-95, up to 97, with heavy sink, and his slider is a bona fide out pitch against right-handed batters. His command will never be great, the hazard of being 6-9 and trying to keep those long limbs in check, and his changeup is a work in progress at best. If that changeup comes along, even without good command he's at least a good No. 3 starter, with a chance to be a legitimate No. 2.

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39. Jake Marisnick, OF | Miami Marlins (age 22)
Current level: Double-A (Jacksonville)
Preseason ranking: 82


Marisnick should be the Marlins' long-term answer in center field, if by "long-term" we mean until his first year of arbitration, after which he'll be far too expensive for Jeff Loria's parsimonious tastes.

He (Marisnick, that is) is a four-tool guy who can run and plays a great center field, with emerging power, still needing work on that fifth tool, the ability to hit, part of which is tied up in mediocre recognition of breaking stuff.

Even if he never improves, he's a big league regular because of his glove, raw power and speed, but he has star potential if he can tighten up his plate discipline.

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40. Raul Mondesi Jr., SS | Kansas City Royals (age 17)
Current level: Low Class A (Lexington)
Preseason ranking: Unranked


Formerly known as Adalberto Mondesi, the Sally League's youngest everyday player (he'll turn 18 on July 27) has held his own against much older competition, boosting his season line with a brief .349/.440/.512 run over his past four series, all while showing tremendous instincts at shortstop.

At worst, he might turn into Elvis Andrus, a fine hitter for a shortstop whose value comes more from defense and position, but Mondesi's feel for the game and hand strength should lead to better results at the plate, including more pop.

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41. Eddie Rosario, 2B | Minnesota Twins (age 21)
Current level: Double-A (New Britain)
Preseason ranking: 65


Rosario doesn't have the star power of the other Twins prospects on this list, but he does have a long track record of hitting for average, with doubles power and adequate walk rates, to go along with gradually improving defense at his new position of second base.

The former center fielder may never be above average at second, but his bat will be. Rosario's ceiling is a .290-.310 hitter with 30-35 doubles, 10 homers and 50-60 walks a year, which would make him one of the best at that position in the game.

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42. Jesse Biddle, LHP | Philadelphia Phillies (age 21)
Current level: Double-A (Reading)
Preseason ranking: 95


Biddle has slowed down some after a hot start that saw him punch out 26 guys over his last two starts in April, but the swing-and-miss potential of his low-70s breaking ball is real, as long as he can command the fastball well enough to get to curveball counts.

He'll need to continue to improve the changeup and there's always some hope that a pitcher of his size (6-4, 225 pounds) will find one more half-grade of velocity before he's done filling out; if not, he's probably a solid league-average or slightly better starter for a long time who has added value in trade because he's left-handed.

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43. Luc Giolito, RHP | Washington Nationals (age 19)
Current level: Rookie (Gulf Coast)
Preseason ranking: 77


Giolito is just back from Tommy John surgery, less than 12 months after going under the knife, and has regained his velocity, sitting 95-98 mph in short outings in the Gulf Coast League as the Nats build him back up.

The curveball should be next, and command last; as those return, which they should given how well his recovery has gone, he'll continue to move up these rankings, and could easily finish the year in the top 20 because of his No. 1 starter ceiling.

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44. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP | Baltimore Orioles (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Bowie)
Preseason ranking: 100


After an aggressive promotion to Double-A, Rodriguez appears to be the next starting pitcher in line for a rotation spot in Baltimore after Kevin Gausman, and with the chance for three above-average pitches could be a pretty good one in his own right.

Rodriguez will sit 92-94 with a hard upper-80s changeup that gets swings and misses more from tailing action than from deception, and his breaking ball has a chance to be at least a solid grade 55. He'll pitch the whole year at 20 and shouldn't see the majors until this time next year at the earliest.

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45. Austin Hedges, C | San Diego Padres (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Lake Elsinore)
Preseason ranking: 38


There's little elite catching in the minors right now, in case you hadn't noticed, with Hedges the leading catching prospect in the minors by default. He's a plus-plus defender in all aspects of the game, and has surprising raw power that doesn't play in games yet because he's still on the raw side as a hitter.

Even if he ends up just a .250/.310/.430 guy, with his defense that's a potential All-Star, and if you believe catchers do develop later as hitters you can easily dream on him to become something more.

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46. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP | Houston Astros (age 21)
Current level: Double-A (Corpus Christi)
Preseason ranking: Unranked


Foltynewicz has been hitting triple digits as a starter this year and sitting in the 95-98 range, missing bats and even getting some ground balls since the Astros wisely shipped him out of the hitters' paradise of Lancaster and sent him to Corpus Christi.

His secondary stuff isn't as advanced, with the changeup the most promising of his off-speed weapons, and his feel for pitching and command are both far above what they were when the Astros drafted him in 2010. There's some sentiment among scouts that he might end up a closer, due to the lack of a plus second pitch and the command, which still has a ways to go, but in a starter's role he might have a No. 2 ceiling.

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47. Andrew Heaney, LHP | Miami Marlins (age 22)
Current level: High Class A (Jupiter)
Preseason ranking: Unranked


Heaney should be in the Southern League by now -- and he should have been in the Futures Game -- as a major-college product dominating high Class A in his first full pro season. He works with two plus pitches in his fastball and slider, and has actually been even more effective against right-handed hitters this year (sample-size caveats apply).

He's on the slight side for a starter -- 6-2, 190 pounds -- and probably isn't a 210-220 inning guy, but as a potentially strong No. 3 starter from the left side he's jumped up into the top tier of prospects this year.

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48. Max Fried, LHP | San Diego Padres (age 19)
Current level: Low Class A (Ft. Wayne)
Preseason ranking: 51


Fried, the Padres' first pick in the 2012 draft, is still mostly potential at this point, with a solid performance for low Class A Fort Wayne but not the kind to push him up the rankings yet. He's an outstanding athlete who repeats his delivery well, throwing in the low 90s with a sharp curveball and feel for a changeup, but needs to work on his command and feel for pitching, typical stuff for a 19-year-old in his first full pro season.

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49. Gary Sanchez, C | New York Yankees (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Tampa)
Preseason ranking: 18


What a dismal year for the Yankees' top prospects; Tyler Austin has struggled and is now out with a wrist injury, Mason Williams has been worse and Slade Heathcott has underperformed, while Ty Hensley has been out after hip surgery.

Sanchez is the best of the group but his stock has taken a hit as his receiving, much improved last year, has regressed, while his explosive hands and raw power haven't produced offensive results yet, either. He's a stretch to make the top 50 at this point, but I still see too much potential here, mostly on offense, to walk away from him entirely.

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50. Lucas Sims, RHP | Atlanta Braves (age 19)
Current level: Low Class A (Rome)
Preseason ranking: Unranked


Sims has blown up since Atlanta moved him into the rotation after a stint in the pen to limit his innings for the year, now sitting 91-96 with a plus curveball and much-improved changeup.

His walk rate dropped by nearly half when he returned to starting, and other than the lack of life on his fastball he doesn't have any major concerns besides the usual command/control questions on any teenaged starter. He's starting to look at least like a potential No. 3 starter, and is now the team's best starting pitching prospect on the farm.

Honorable mentions/just missed/names to make you feel better: Julio Urias, LHP (Dodgers); Yordano Ventura, RHP (Royals); Miguel Almonte, RHP (Royals); David Dahl, OF (Rockies); Lance McCullers Jr., RHP (Astros); Zach Lee, RHP (Dodgers); Arismendy Alcantara, SS (Cubs); Blake Swihart, C (Red Sox)
 

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Ryan Braun out for 2013 but will be back
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By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Goodbye, Ryan Braun. Hello, Logan Schafer and Caleb Gindl. Not quite the same for fantasy owners, is it?Late on Monday afternoon the stunning news broke that Braun, the Milwaukee Brewers outfielder that had repeatedly fought for his innocence when it came to testing positive for violating MLB’s drug policy in the past and with his involvement in the current Biogenesis situation, essentially gave up. While not fully admitting guilt, he has agreed to serve a season-ending suspension. Braun will miss the rest of the 2013 season, likely in a deal to avoid a longer suspension in 2014, according to the report.

Braun does this with his team in last place and while battling a thumb injury, with the stakes obviously lower than had it happened in March and while healthy. Frankly, the whole thing stinks, but the bottom line is, it’s over. He’s done. Yes, I would drop him in fantasy now because this seems irreversible since it came with his consent. The No. 2 pick in
ESPN average live drafts this season, one spot ahead of Mike Trout and two ahead of Robinson Cano, finishes with nine home runs, 38 RBIs, four stolen bases and a .298 batting average. Entering Monday night’s games, Braun was tied with Brandon Belt in the No. 182 slot on ESPN’s Player Rater, and outside the top 50 outfielders. Not exactly what we paid for, eh?
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But would you have felt better had Braun’s thumb injury, which resulted in a recent disabled list stint, necessitated season-ending surgery? It really doesn’t matter. Braun and the team admitted the injury was not improving, but still, him not fighting inevitable suspension is disappointing. The bottom line is fantasy owners need to move on and in NL-only leagues or really deep mixed ones, well, you might not be too pleased with the replacements.

As for Braun's value, put aside your anger and focus on 2014. Yeah, I’m angry, too. I paid $40 for Braun in LABR-NL, the first time I had broken my own personal rule about spending big auction dollars on any one player. I generally don’t spend more than $30 on anyone in an auction. For some reason, I thought he was safe. That was 15 percent of my budget. I activated
New York Mets outfielder Andrew Brown for Braun an hour before Monday’s game time, and not with a smile. In our 19-team office league, which I now will not be winning, I can’t even replace Braun until next week, since this is a 10-day period, but I doubt using Justin Maxwell or Chris Denorfia even then will really suffice. Guess I picked the wrong season to finally acquire Ryan Braun. But in my keeper league, I remain optimistic and won’t be dumping him, on principle, for Joe Blanton.

I do have relative confidence that this remains one of the top 10 players in fantasy baseball for 2014 and beyond. Say what you will about the effects of banned susbstances on a player's body and on his performance, the fact is we just don’t have enough evidence. What are we supposed to make from this, that Braun had broken the rules his entire career? He’s been a fantasy monster since the beginning in 2007. He went 30/30 twice. He’s a career .312 hitter. I don’t buy that Braun is going to be terrible in 2014, like
Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Melky Cabrera has been in 2013. Each player is different, and we should treat them as such.

As of now, I’d say Braun is at the back end of my overall top 10 for 2014, certainly after the top players like Miguel Cabrera, Trout and Cano, but probably ahead of many of the top first basemen that play fantasy’s deepest offensive spot and generally do not steal bases, like Prince Fielder and Joey Votto. There won’t be any pitchers in my top 10, either. Sorry, but Braun makes my top 10 and I would not downgrade him one bit for longer-length dynasty formats. This is a 2013 thing only. If you refuse to ever draft Braun or bid on him again, so be it, but I still want to win my leagues. He can help, and remember the last time everyone thought Braun’s statistics would fall off ... he went 30/30 and certainly could have won the MVP award again. He had a better 2012 than 2011. So yes, I’m keeping him owned in a dynasty or keeper format. He’s still going to be really good, I believe, and one would think mighty motivated.

As for potential replacements, let’s treat this as an injury situation. It happens. Logan Schafer is the likely choice for the Brewers in left field. He can steal bases, but isn’t a high on-base option and possesses little power upside, though he has homered twice in the past fortnight. He’s also older than Caleb Gindl, who really isn’t a top prospect himself, having repeated Triple-A Nashville for a few seasons. Gindl hit the game-winning home run to mercifully end Sunday’s scoreless mess against the Miami Marlins, but was filling in for injured Norichika Aoki. Gindl was hitting .294 in the minors with 10 home runs in 76 games, but only one stolen base. Then again, who knows what the Brewers actually do in left field. After all, this is the organization that has used Yuniesky Betancourt, Juan Francisco and Alex Gonzalez at first base all season instead of promoting prospect Hunter Morris, with Corey Hart out for the year. Morris can play, but hasn’t received opportunity. Avoid Schafer and Gindl unless it’s a buck or two in an NL-only format. It’s also possible this last-place team doesn’t rush third baseman Aramis Ramirez back from injury, or like Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz in 2012, Ramirez’s injury might be healed but he sits out anyway, just because he can.

The top outfield-eligible players available in more than half of ESPN’s standard leagues that I would consider reasonable pickups for power, and taking batting average into account, would be, in order, Carlos Quentin, Garrett Jones, Dayan Viciedo, Kelly Johnson, Darin Ruf, Brandon Moss, Josh Reddick, Chris Carter, Logan Morrison, Matt Joyce, Delmon Young and Michael Saunders. Quentin’s issue is generally health and Zack Greinke fastballs, and that’s about it. Viciedo is readily available, and he hit 25 home runs in 2012. Ruf will play regularly for Philadelphia, and he’s looked pretty good at the plate. Morrison is a Marlin, but they are at Coors Field for four games this week. Hopefully the team will find a way to score an actual run.

If you need stolen bases, Lorenzo Cain, Adam Eaton, Denard Span, Jose Tabata, Jarrod Dyson, David Lough, Will Venable, Drew Stubbs, Gregor Blanco and soon when he’s healthy, Peter Bourjos, are options. Cain has not hit for the power I expected, but he does run. Eaton should be the best fantasy option here, but he just got healthy enough to play and it’s been a slow start for him after the elbow injury. I rarely believe in Tabata. And really, Schafer would slot in right around Span and Tabata for me; I could see him hitting .270 the rest of the way with maybe 10 steals. It’s not Ryan Braun, but it’s the best you can do at this point.
 

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Which closers are safe, and unsafe?

By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

Every July it happens. The lure of the beach and chicken parmesan sandwiches beckons, and my colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft is unable to resist taking a well-earned week off before trade-deadline moves change the baseball landscape to the point where one cannot afford to look away. Once again, I have been asked to fill the huge void left by his absence, and I'll try my best not to blow this save situation.

Speaking of saves, when it comes to trying to figure out which pitcher is going to get the call when victory hangs in the balance, most managers want this decision to be made on autopilot. Managers hate uncertainty. They want to pick up the bullpen phone and have there be no question as to which pitcher they want to close out a win.

As long as the skipper feels "his guy" is doing a good job, the closer keeps his job, even if everyone in the stadium begins to feel sick to their stomach the moment the first notes of a less-than-dominant closer's entrance music emerges from the loudspeakers. But unless the manager actually decides to field questions from reporters about whether or not a change is coming and then answers them honestly, trying to guess what's going on inside his head is virtually impossible.

We can make educated guesses by what we see in the highlights and read in the box scores, but at the end of the day, no matter how many batters seem to reach base on Chris Perez, if Tribe manager Terry Francona decides he'd rather continue to use Vinnie Pestano in a setup role, then there's absolutely nothing Pestano's owners can do but shake their heads in disbelief.

By way of trying to play the role of mind reader, I've found over the years that there is a statistic that can give the fantasy owner some insight into which managers might actually be pondering a changing of the guard at the back end of their bullpen. I call it FBA, which stands for first batter average. It's the combined batting averages of the first hitters a reliever has faced upon entering a game. After all, the quickest way for the boo birds in the stands to gain momentum and for the manager to start to question the status quo is to see his closer consistently struggle out of the gate.

FBA might well be a window into this thought process and a forecaster of change. Is it based on a small sample size? Of course it is. But closers are all about small sample sizes. In most cases, they have no room for error, and often just one bad pitch is all it takes for a lead to vanish into thin air.

FBA foreshadowed the demise of Jonathan Broxton as the Los Angeles Dodgers' closer in 2010 and predicted the rise of then-future closers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen in 2011. Last year, it correctly suggested that John Axford, and not Francisco Rodriguez, would be the last man standing in Milwaukee's pen. So what does it say about the rest of 2013? Let's take a look at the current slate of closers around the league and see if there are any unexpected collapses on the horizon, and if so, who might be affected.

[h=3]Group 1: Security blankets[/h]
We're just one pitcher shy of a full dozen names that reside in this safety zone, which consists of pitchers who have an FBA under. 200, and as such, should be able to maintain a solid grasp on their respective closer jobs for the remainder of the season, even if there might be a few bumps along the way.



Craig Kimbrel and Edward Mujica are on this list. It would take a collapse of monumental proportions for any of their managers to move away from relying on these stalwarts anytime soon. And with Huston Street, whose name always seems to come up in trade talks at this time of the year, signed through 2014, while there's always a chance of a deal, we're skeptical San Diego will make a move.</P.IT'S></P>
In the case of Jonathan Papelbon, his solid FBA might be part of the reason that even though he had a rough stretch at the end of June, during which he blew four out of five save chances over an eight-day period, his manager Charlie Manuel has no problem standing firm. It doesn't mean, however, that he won't turn to Antonio Bastardo for a short stint, should Papelbon have a relapse. Anything is possible.

Clearly a reliever can build a lot of confidence with his manager. Instead of panic, a solid FBA can cause a manager like Manuel to say things like, "You go through times when you're going to give up some runs and things like that. That's all part of the run. Papelbon, to me, is one of the premier closers in our league, if not the best."

PitcherTeamSVBSFBA
Casey JanssenTOR181.059
Jose VerasHOU183.143
Greg HollandKC242.143
Edward MujicaSTL282.143
Chris PerezCLE132.148
Jonathan PapelbonPHI205.171
Aroldis ChapmanCIN233.175
Joe NathanTEX311.179
Craig KimbrelATL283.188
Huston StreetSD171.188
Steve CishekMIA182.190

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[h=3]Group 2: Only as good as today[/h]
This next group of pitchers each has an FBA in the "neutral zone" between .200 and .250. In this range, and with lurking competition, their jobs are only going to be as safe as their team's win-loss record.

In the past, potential trades have typically come from this neck of the woods, since there are always trusted (though clearly at varying levels) alternatives to be found on the staffs of the teams with closers in this grouping. With that additional wild-card spot keeping more teams in the running as July 31 approaches, though, only the Twins, White Sox and a post-Braun Brewers squad, of the teams below, can legitimately be considered the "sellers" in this group.

Still, the fact these teams all have playoff aspirations only heightens the pressure on their managers to "win today." It might take only a few consecutive poor outings for someone such as Fernando Rodney or Kenley Jansen to be given, at the very least, a temporary "vacation" from the job.

Obviously, a special case exists in New York, where Mariano Rivera's career is unlikely to come to a close without him getting every possible chance to tip his cap in each and every stadium the Yankees play in the rest of the way. But if the team needs him to throw several days in a row come September, we're not 100 percent sure the team won't call on David Robertson to help ease the burden on its ancient warrior.

CloserTeamSVBSFBAPotential CloserFBA
Glen PerkinsMIN242.200Casey Fien.136
Fernando RodneyTB245.200Joel Peralta.140
Addison ReedCHW254.205Nate Jones.114
Kenley JansenLAD113.220Paco Rodriguez.200
Sergio RomoSF233.231Javier Lopez.194
Francisco RodriguezMIL100.240Jim Henderson.194
Mariano RiveraNYY312.243David Robertson.158

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[h=3]Group 3: Only game in town[/h]
This next quartet also rests in the FBA neutral zone, but the next-in-line candidates have not done much to make a lasting impression. We're tempted to call this the "Carlos Marmol zone." In fact, had the Chicago Cubs not already sent him and his .333 FBA packing, this is where he'd certainly be yet again.

Kevin Gregg is still with the Cubs, and could well be headed elsewhere as the team continues to clean house. But there's not really a definite replacement should the team pull the trigger. Similarly, though Washington and the New York Mets have seen their share of leads go by the wayside as a result of the late-inning foibles of their closers, it's not like anybody worthwhile is pounding on the door waiting to be given a chance.

It certainly still matters a lot who closes out things in Boston, and it appears Koji Uehara will be forced to figure things out on the fly, as Andrew Bailey is not going to be riding in to save the day, and the alternatives, such as Junichi Tazawa, certainly don't seem all that appealing. Perhaps the Red Sox may be looking to pull the trigger on a deal? If so, Gregg could indeed be an upgrade, in my eyes.

CloserTeamSVBSFBAPotential CloserFBA
Kevin GreggCHC192.222James Russell.250
Rafael SorianoWSH254.225Drew Storen.262
Bobby ParnellNYM184.238LaTroy Hawkins.324
Koji UeharaBOS93.239Junichi Tazawa.359

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[h=3]Group 4: In flux[/h]
This group is comprised of the jobs that are up in the air due to injuries or a manager simply being unable to make up his mind on just one arm to rule them all. Yes, those dreaded "closer-by-committee" situations drive all fantasy owners crazy. We don't know the full extent of Jason Grilli's injury. Obviously, without fear of a lengthy absence, he'd easily be in Group 1. But if you were wondering why Mark Melancon is the recommended replacement for Clint Hurdle, his FBA could be a reason he instills so much confidence.

In Seattle, Tom Wilhelmsen was the closer, then was yanked for a bit, then was given the job back again by manager Eric Wedge. With three saves in four days, the worst appears to be behind him. But once a manager shows that he's unafraid to ditch "his guy," we can't help wonder if it might happen again. Then again, after looking at the FBA of the other Mariners relievers with saves on the season, our sour stomach settles a lot.

Clearly Heath Bell is not the answer in Arizona, but you can see why Brad Ziegler has been in the mix at the back end of games for Kirk Gibson and the Diamondbacks. But you also shouldn't be surprised if J.J. Putz weasels his way back into the thick of things.

Finally, in Detroit, where Jose Valverde went bankrupt in his attempt to keep the closer job -- his .278 FBA certainly didn't help matters any -- Joaquin Benoit has done well to hold down the fort. However, he's not exactly in the comfort zone, and there are multiple other options at Jim Leyland's disposal should Benoit start to show signs of slippage. But a strong finish to July would certainly end the discussion.

TeamPlan AFBAPlan BFBAPlan CFBA
PiratesJason Grilli.071Mark Melancon.178Tony Watson.205
MarinersTom Wilhelmsen.158Oliver Perez.314Yoervis Medina.226
DiamondbacksBrad Ziegler.167J.J. Putz.158Heath Bell.342
TigersJoaquin Benoit.216Drew Smyly.158Bruce Rondon.154

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[h=3]Group 5: Danger, Will Robinson![/h]
If there's going to be an "unexpected" changing of the guard, this is where you need to look. Yes, in terms of getting saves, the guys below may be getting the job done, but psychologically speaking, there are red flags to be found.

Grant Balfour has indeed been perfect in save situations this season, and in fact, he's working on a team-record streak of 44 consecutive chances converted. But he has given up four home runs this season, and his strand rate is an obscenely high 95.9 percent. Smoke and mirrors? Not entirely, but if the bottom falls out of this hot air balloon, the fall may well be precipitous.

Even while going 6-for-6 in save chances since July 7, Jim Johnson has allowed an OBP of .318 over that short span. He has blown six save chances already this season, and overall he has been on the hook for seven Baltimore Orioles losses this season. Every time Buck Showalter is grilled about the fate of Johnson and whether or not a change is imminent, the manager deflects the question, talking about how the offense needs to score more runs. To us, the unspoken words that follow sound a lot like "so that I don't have to bring Johnson in and watch him blow another one."

Due to a lack of competition, it doesn't seem like Ernesto Frieri has much to worry about at the moment. Truth be told, the fact in 15 of his past 16 outings he has faced either the minimum number of hitters or just one above minimum required to retire the side certainly points to increasing confidence from his manager. It's not like the torches are waving like they were in late May.

And lastly, even though the move to Rex Brothers in Colorado was the result of Rafael Betancourt being put on the disabled list due to needing to have his appendix removed, we're not so sure he would have been able to hold on to the job in the long term had the medical emergency not arisen. Rockies manager Walt Weiss might well give the job back to Betancourt when he returns, but if Brothers saves enough games over the next two weeks, that may not be a lock to happen.

CloserTeamSVBSFBAPotential CloserFBA
Ernesto FrieriLAA242.257Scott Downs.297
Jim JohnsonBAL356.277Tommy Hunter.167
Grant BalfourOAK260.289Ryan Cook.146
Rafael BetancourtCOL151.320Rex Brothers.250

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Certainly, FBA is not an absolute measure of job security, but in the past it has served us well to help identify pitchers who may be causing their managers to reach for the bottle of antacids, even when they do manage to keep the floodgates from opening.

If you're looking for where the next source of untapped saves are likely to come from, both for the rest of 2013 and beyond, look no further than the vultures circling above the walking dead in Group 5.

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[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: The top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.
<CENTER>Rnk </CENTER>Player, Team <CENTER>Pos
Rnk </CENTER>
<CENTER>Prev
Rnk </CENTER>
<CENTER>Rnk </CENTER>Player <CENTER>Pos
Rnk </CENTER>
<CENTER>Prev
Rnk </CENTER>
1 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28963/clayton-kershaw')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28963" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Clayton Kershaw, LAD SP1 1 76 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29134/chris-perez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29134" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Chris Perez, Cle RP22 65
2 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5403/adam-wainwright')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5403" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Adam Wainwright, StL SP2 2 77 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28705/tim-lincecum')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28705" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Tim Lincecum, SF SP55 91
3 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6194/felix-hernandez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6194" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Felix Hernandez, Sea SP3 3 78 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31068/jeff-locke')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31068" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jeff Locke, Pit SP56 93
4 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5353/cliff-lee')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5353" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Cliff Lee, Phi SP4 7 79 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5203/john-lackey')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5203" instance="_ppc" tab="null">John Lackey, Bos SP57 64
5 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/32055/yu-darvish')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="32055" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Yu Darvish, Tex SP5 5 80 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4084/tim-hudson')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4084" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Tim Hudson, Atl SP58 101
6 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28976/max-scherzer')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28976" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Max Scherzer, Det SP6 4 81 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31517/tom-wilhelmsen')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31517" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea RP23 115
7 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31214/matt-harvey')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31214" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Matt Harvey, NYM SP7 12 82 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31706/tommy-milone')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31706" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Tommy Milone, Oak SP59 81
8 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29949/madison-bumgarner')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29949" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Madison Bumgarner, SF SP8 8 83 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6435/josh-johnson')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6435" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Josh Johnson, Tor SP60 68
9 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30373/stephen-strasburg')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30373" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Stephen Strasburg, Wsh SP9 9 84 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6175/huston-street')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6175" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Huston Street, SD RP24 86
10 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6341/justin-verlander')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6341" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Justin Verlander, Det SP10 6 85 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29446/mark-melancon')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29446" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Mark Melancon, Pit RP25 118
11 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30209/jordan-zimmermann')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30209" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh SP11 14 86 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6398/paul-maholm')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6398" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Paul Maholm, Atl SP61 92
12 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30948/chris-sale')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30948" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Chris Sale, CWS SP12 15 87 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28650/yovani-gallardo')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28650" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Yovani Gallardo, Mil SP62 102
13 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30653/craig-kimbrel')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30653" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Craig Kimbrel, Atl RP1 13 88 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30465/mike-leake')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30465" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Mike Leake, Cin SP63 85
14 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28958/david-price')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28958" instance="_ppc" tab="null">David Price, TB SP13 10 89 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4588/joaquin-benoit')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4588" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Joaquin Benoit, Det RP26 77
15 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30442/aroldis-chapman')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30442" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Aroldis Chapman, Cin RP2 17 90 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30962/brandon-beachy')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30962" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Brandon Beachy, Atl SP64 87
16 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28962/gio-gonzalez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28962" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Gio Gonzalez, Wsh SP14 11 91 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28498/jose-veras')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28498" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jose Veras, Hou RP27 98
17 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30196/mat-latos')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30196" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Mat Latos, Cin SP15 23 92 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4789/kyle-lohse')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4789" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Kyle Lohse, Mil SP65 72
18 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6216/cole-hamels')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6216" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Cole Hamels, Phi SP16 22 93 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6491/ricky-nolasco')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6491" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Ricky Nolasco, LAD SP66 79
19 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28474/james-shields')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28474" instance="_ppc" tab="null">James Shields, KC SP17 30 94 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5641/kevin-gregg')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5641" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Kevin Gregg, ChC RP28 80
20 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3240/mariano-rivera')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3240" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Mariano Rivera, NYY RP3 19 95 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/32135/tony-cingrani')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="32135" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Tony Cingrani, Cin SP67 99
21 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30965/hisashi-iwakuma')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30965" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea SP18 39 96 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30134/andrew-cashner')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30134" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Andrew Cashner, SD SP68 106
22 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31099/matt-moore')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31099" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Matt Moore, TB SP19 26 97 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3845/ryan-dempster')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3845" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Ryan Dempster, Bos SP69 104
23 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5883/zack-greinke')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5883" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Zack Greinke, LAD SP20 16 98 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/32563/dan-straily')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="32563" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Dan Straily, Oak SP70 108
24 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28950/hiroki-kuroda')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28950" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Hiroki Kuroda, NYY SP21 25 99 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30285/chris-tillman')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30285" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Chris Tillman, Bal SP71 73
25 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6479/jered-weaver')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6479" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jered Weaver, LAA SP22 21 100 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30549/alexi-ogando')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30549" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Alexi Ogando, Tex SP72 145
26 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4044/joe-nathan')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4044" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Joe Nathan, Tex RP4 33 101 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28591/eric-stults')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28591" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Eric Stults, SD SP73 109
27 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4553/cc-sabathia')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4553" instance="_ppc" tab="null">CC Sabathia, NYY SP23 20 102 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30981/corey-kluber')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30981" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Corey Kluber, Cle SP74 89
28 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29630/kenley-jansen')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29630" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Kenley Jansen, LAD RP5 18 103 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30147/jhoulys-chacin')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30147" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jhoulys Chacin, Col SP75 97
29 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29168/sergio-romo')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29168" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Sergio Romo, SF RP6 53 104 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31083/rex-brothers')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31083" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Rex Brothers, Col RP29 125
30 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30624/mike-minor')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30624" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Mike Minor, Atl SP24 27 105 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5357/francisco-rodriguez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5357" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Francisco Rodriguez, Mil RP30 100
31 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6373/jonathan-papelbon')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6373" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jonathan Papelbon, Phi RP7 41 106 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5906/jorge-de-la-rosa')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5906" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jorge De La Rosa, Col SP76 95
32 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6472/anibal-sanchez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6472" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Anibal Sanchez, Det SP25 44 107 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31094/wade-miley')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31094" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Wade Miley, Ari SP77 88
33 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6202/matt-cain')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6202" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Matt Cain, SF SP26 40 108 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/32081/gerrit-cole')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="32081" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Gerrit Cole, Pit SP78 90
34 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28668/homer-bailey')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28668" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Homer Bailey, Cin SP27 24 109 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28864/ian-kennedy')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28864" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Ian Kennedy, Ari SP79 129
35 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28501/edward-mujica')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28501" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Edward Mujica, StL RP8 46 110 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31267/zack-wheeler')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31267" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Zack Wheeler, NYM SP80 94
36 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4600/rafael-soriano')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4600" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Rafael Soriano, Wsh RP9 32 111 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6384/scott-feldman')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6384" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Scott Feldman, Bal SP81 135
37 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30738/shelby-miller')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30738" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Shelby Miller, StL SP28 42 112 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30870/jeremy-hefner')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30870" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jeremy Hefner, NYM SP82 105
38 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30945/greg-holland')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30945" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Greg Holland, KC RP10 31 113 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6286/wandy-rodriguez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6286" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Wandy Rodriguez, Pit SP83 124
39 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29166/jeff-samardzija')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29166" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jeff Samardzija, ChC SP29 34 114 <A href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id//steve-delabar')">Steve Delabar, Tor RP31 NR
40 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28855/clay-buchholz')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28855" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Clay Buchholz, Bos SP30 37 115 <A href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id//brad-ziegler')">Brad Ziegler, Ari SP84 NR
41 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31313/patrick-corbin')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31313" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Patrick Corbin, Ari SP31 35 116 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30378/john-axford')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30378" instance="_ppc" tab="null">John Axford, Mil RP32 111
42 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30820/lance-lynn')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30820" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Lance Lynn, StL SP32 38 117 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30526/jacob-turner')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30526" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jacob Turner, Mia SP85 107
43 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31493/addison-reed')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31493" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Addison Reed, CWS RP11 51 118 <A href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id//bronson-arroyo')">Bronson Arroyo, Cin SP86 NR
44 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6482/glen-perkins')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6482" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Glen Perkins, Min RP12 43 119 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29966/rick-porcello')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29966" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Rick Porcello, Det SP87 103
45 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5111/fernando-rodney')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5111" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Fernando Rodney, TB RP13 36 120 <A href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id//jose-quintana')">Jose Quintana, CWS SP88 NR
46 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30370/doug-fister')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30370" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Doug Fister, Det SP33 58 121 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29310/miguel-gonzalez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29310" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Miguel Gonzalez, Bal SP89 110
47 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5019/jake-peavy')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5019" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jake Peavy, CWS SP34 69 122 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3985/rafael-betancourt')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3985" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Rafael Betancourt, Col RP33 83
48 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4153/a.j.-burnett')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4153" instance="_ppc" tab="null">A.J. Burnett, Pit SP35 57 123 <A href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id//chris-archer')">Chris Archer, TB SP90 NR
49 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6526/casey-janssen')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6526" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Casey Janssen, Tor RP14 59 124 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28804/kyle-kendrick')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28804" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Kyle Kendrick, Phi SP91 131
50 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30515/travis-wood')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30515" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Travis Wood, ChC SP36 78 125 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30400/ivan-nova')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30400" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Ivan Nova, NYY SP92 122
51 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28531/jim-johnson')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28531" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jim Johnson, Bal RP15 45 126 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31816/drew-smyly')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31816" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Drew Smyly, Det RP34 112
52 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30148/derek-holland')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30148" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Derek Holland, Tex SP37 61 127 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30066/felix-doubront')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30066" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Felix Doubront, Bos SP93 113
53 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29227/bobby-parnell')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29227" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Bobby Parnell, NYM RP16 49 128 <A href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id//wei-yin-chen')">Wei-Yin Chen, Bal SP94 NR
54 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/32582/hyun-jin-ryu')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="32582" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD SP38 60 129 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28694/tyler-clippard')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28694" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Tyler Clippard, Wsh RP35 136
55 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28977/justin-masterson')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28977" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Justin Masterson, Cle SP39 76 130 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6191/brandon-mccarthy')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6191" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Brandon McCarthy, Ari SP95 139
56 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28528/matt-garza')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28528" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Matt Garza, Tex SP40 29 131 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30964/vinnie-pestano')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30964" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Vinnie Pestano, Cle RP36 140
57 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4695/r.a.-dickey')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4695" instance="_ppc" tab="null">R.A. Dickey, Tor SP41 55 132 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30058/david-hernandez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30058" instance="_ppc" tab="null">David Hernandez, Ari RP37 142
58 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4811/grant-balfour')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4811" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Grant Balfour, Oak RP17 54 133 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30041/brett-anderson')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30041" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Brett Anderson, Oak SP96 144
59 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6280/ervin-santana')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6280" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Ervin Santana, KC SP42 70 134 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28734/brandon-morrow')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28734" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Brandon Morrow, Tor SP97 146
60 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6311/c.j.-wilson')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6311" instance="_ppc" tab="null">C.J. Wilson, LAA SP43 47 135 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31221/tyler-skaggs')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31221" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Tyler Skaggs, Ari SP98 149
61 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4350/jason-grilli')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4350" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jason Grilli, Pit RP18 28 136 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31983/erasmo-ramirez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31983" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Erasmo Ramirez, Sea SP99 150
62 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30264/kris-medlen')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30264" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Kris Medlen, Atl SP44 74 137 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31169/jim-henderson')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31169" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jim Henderson, Mil RP38 123
63 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3602/bartolo-colon')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3602" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Bartolo Colon, Oak SP45 67 138 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5842/edwin-jackson')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5842" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Edwin Jackson, ChC SP100 127
64 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/32567/jose-fernandez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="32567" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jose Fernandez, Mia SP46 50 139 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30139/dillon-gee')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30139" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Dillon Gee, NYM SP101 130
65 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30506/jeremy-hellickson')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30506" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jeremy Hellickson, TB SP47 66 140 <A href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id//donovan-hand')">Donovan Hand, Mil SP102 NR
66 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28955/johnny-cueto')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28955" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Johnny Cueto, Cin SP48 96 141 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30369/bud-norris')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30369" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Bud Norris, Hou SP103 114
67 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28487/jon-lester')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28487" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jon Lester, Bos SP49 63 142 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31945/trevor-rosenthal')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31945" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Trevor Rosenthal, StL RP39 117
68 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30963/steve-cishek')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30963" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Steve Cishek, Mia RP19 71 143 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6352/jason-vargas')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6352" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jason Vargas, LAA SP104 121
69 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30130/koji-uehara')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30130" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Koji Uehara, Bos RP20 82 144 <A href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id//nate-eovaldi')">Nate Eovaldi, Mia SP105 NR
70 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29984/ernesto-frieri')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29984" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Ernesto Frieri, LAA RP21 62 145 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31340/carlos-martinez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31340" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Carlos Martinez, StL SP106 132
71 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6211/francisco-liriano')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6211" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Francisco Liriano, Pit SP50 52 146 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31110/yoervis-medina')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31110" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Yoervis Medina, Sea RP40 138
72 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31091/julio-teheran')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31091" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Julio Teheran, Atl SP51 48 147 <A href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id//ryan-cook')">Ryan Cook, Oak SP107 NR
73 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29806/jarrod-parker')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29806" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jarrod Parker, Oak SP52 56 148 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/32579/paco-rodriguez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="32579" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Paco Rodriguez, LAD RP41 141
74 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31086/alex-cobb')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31086" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Alex Cobb, TB SP53 75 149 <A href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id//casey-fien')">Casey Fien, Min SP108 NR
75 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/32559/a.j.-griffin')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="32559" instance="_ppc" tab="null">A.J. Griffin, Oak SP54 84 150 <A class=flexpop href="javascript:newWin('http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28638/phil-hughes')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28638" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Phil Hughes, NYY SP108 120

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hacheman@therx.com
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Future in doubt for Jason Grilli
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By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Jason Grilli entered Monday as the No. 2 closer on the ESPN Player Rater, but when the day ended he had left his save opportunity with a few more runs allowed and a sore forearm, with his future in doubt and with plenty of worried fantasy owners scurrying to see if setup man Mark Melancon was available in their leagues. Grilli, 36 and an All-Star, has a 2.34 ERA and 0.92 WHIP this season, and an NL-leading 30 saves, but today the concern is that he might be out for a while.

The first thing fantasy owners should do, rather than complaining about their plight -- you could own Ryan Braun and Matt Garza also in an NL-only league, after all -- is to grab Melancon off your waiver wire, not Vin Mazzaro, who actually saved Monday’s win over the Washington Nationals. Melancon is having a tremendous season, better even than Grilli, but wasn’t available Monday after throwing Saturday and Sunday. Melancon boasts a 0.97 ERA and 0.82 WHIP, he has closing experience, and he’s obviously turned his career around after last year’s struggles with the Boston Red Sox. Mazzaro is having his own fine season, but don’t get too excited. If Grilli needs to miss time -- and that’s not official yet -- then Melancon is clearly next in line.It would be quite a shame if Grilli, in his first season of closing, has major arm trouble, but we know forearm woes are often related to elbow issues, so be prepared. Grilli, a journeyman with below-average career numbers, is on pace for the most appearances of his career. He entered Monday with a 1.94 ERA, then permitted a rare walk, a rare opposite-field home run, and after light-hitting Denard Span doubled it was clear something was amiss. After the first pitch of the Steve Lombardozzi at-bat, Grilli walked off the mound shaking his fingers.
Melancon is available in 80 percent of ESPN standard leagues, and he’s worth an immediate addition in all formats. After all, the contending Pirates are third in baseball in save opportunities, and it’s reasonable to expect Melancon to step right in for Grilli, see similar chances and success. If Grilli is fine and resumes pitching this week, you can always send Melancon back to the waiver wire. Most save options are owned in most standard leagues at this point, including Francisco Rodriguez and Jose Veras, but take a look to see if Rex Brothers and Brad Ziegler are out there. It’s worth noting that neither figures to keep the job long, but stranger things have happened. There could be other closing openings before July ends, thanks to potential trades involving the Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins and perhaps other teams.
Box score bits (AL): Both the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox were shut out Monday, a mere hours after their Sunday game went deep into the night. Still, anyone suggesting fantasy owners should sit hitters in daily leagues in situations like these is overthinking things. Those teams did face Yu Darvish and Matt Moore, after all. … Enough with Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Josh Johnson; he was tuned up for seven hits and five runs in two innings Monday, sending his ERA back up to 5.66. … Former Blue Jay Yunel Escobar returned to the Rays’ lineup, and he singled and walked twice. With Escobar back, Ben Zobrist is less likely to get the 20 games at short he needs for 2014 qualification. … Chicago White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko came off the disabled list for a strained lower back Monday and batted fifth, going hitless in three at-bats. Konerko, hitting .246 sans power, isn’t a strong investment at this point. … A better, albeit still not strong, investment is Cleveland Indians first baseman Nick Swisher. He homered in his first game in the No. 2 lineup slot Monday. At least Swisher is healthy. In 10 starts and 37 at-bats batting third, Swisher is hitting .162. … Michael Bourn update: He was picked off Monday. He’s stolen three bases in six attempts over the past month, and is on pace for 21 steals. What a colossal, yet rarely discussed, disappointment.
Box score bits (NL): One outing after throwing 148 pitches in his first no-hitter, San Francisco Giants right-hander Tim Lincecum was torched at home by the Cincinnati Reds, allowing eight runs, nine hits and three home runs while recording only 11 outs. Hey, don’t act so surprised. No-hitters tell us nothing about future performance, and this is someone with a 4.73 ERA. I couldn’t sell fast enough last week. … Chicago Cubs rookie Junior Lake launched his first big league home run Monday, a two-run blast off Tyler Skaggs, and finished with four hits and three RBIs. Lake is off to a great start in his few games for the Cubs, handling center field, but isn’t yet worth a 10- or 12-team look. … Logan Schafer, likely the long-term left fielder with Ryan Braun done for the season, walked twice and stole a base Monday, doing so from the No. 2 lineup spot. There is modest steals upside here. … San Diego Padres right-hander Andrew Cashner earned his sixth win, allowing the Brewers three hits and three runs over six innings. Cashner also topped the 100-pitch mark for the first time in a month. Cashner has top-30 starting pitcher upside, but we’re all watching for continued health. … It was surprising to see the Atlanta Braves place Jason Heyward in center field Monday, especially since he missed six games with a sore hamstring, but it’s a good sign he’s healthy now. Heyward didn’t get any hits, but he saved the game with a diving catch.
 

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Garza a better fit in Chicago than Texas
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By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

I suppose we should congratulate the Texas Rangers for sending prospects to the Chicago Cubs for right-hander Matt Garza, a clear upgrade for their rotation. But from a fantasy aspect, I hardly view it as an upgrade to our teams. While Garza is experienced and he should neither fold under the heat of pitching in the hot Texas summer nor in a pennant race, I just can't get over this noteworthy and potentially overwhelming statistic: His career ERA is 3.80, not exactly making him Matt Harvey, and at Wrigley Field it's 2.70. And he's leaving Wrigley Field.

And that's just it. Garza is 100 percent owned in ESPN's standard mixed leagues, and he should be, especially the way he has been performing of late. Over his past six outings, Garza has won five of them, for a bad team, and permitted no more than two earned runs in any of them. His ERA in that span is a cool 1.23. But now he's heading to a tougher league and a tougher ballpark for pitchers, without question, and it's worth noting that his ground-ball rate hasn't been this low in years, or since he was in the American League with the Tampa Bay Rays. He's fine, certainly valuable to Texas until one of the prospects sent packing emerges (and one will), but this guy was near the top of my fantasy sell list a week ago should a trade to the AL occur. And now it has.

<OFFER>Plus, what guarantees do we have he'll even make all his starts the rest of the way? Garza missed the first six weeks of this season because of a sore arm, after missing the second half of 2012 with a stress reaction in his throwing elbow. It's a contract year, which is nice, but let's just say I have concerns about him. Garza was durable prior to that, but this isn't a real or fantasy ace. ESPN Fantasy projected him for a 3.67 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and nine wins in 24 starts, so don't view this guy as a major difference-maker, or someone adding significant value by changing places. I think it's actually the opposite, which is why I did not rank him among my top 200 players in our mid-July rankings.

When healthy, Garza is better than right-hander Ryan Dempster, but how much better? You remember a year ago at this time when the Cubs sent Dempster and his 2.25 ERA and 1.04 WHIP to Texas, don't you? For the Rangers, his ERA was 5.09, his WHIP 1.43. It certainly does not mean Garza will struggle, because each player is different, but the change in leagues can really affect pitchers. I was selling high on Dempster this time last year anyway, and Garza has been overachieving of late as well. And did I mention Garza's clear love of pitching at Wrigley Field? That's a 2.70 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 190 1/3 innings. In Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, albeit against good Rangers offenses, his ERA is 6.04 in 28 1/3 innings. It's not a strong sample size, and again, he's not facing Adrian Beltre anymore, but still. It carries some weight. The Houston Astros are the lone AL West team in the bottom half of the league in runs scored.

In one year, the Rangers will, unless they have advanced to the World Series, regret this trade because third baseman Mike Olt is going to be a good player. A year ago it would have seemed silly that the return for him and a few colleagues would be only 10-12 starts out of a rental like Garza, frankly. Olt brings power to the Cubs, perhaps as many as 30 home runs in the future, and while I've seen some comparisons to Mark Reynolds, I think that's ridiculous.

Olt is 24. He does struggle to make contact at times and he'll probably strike out 100-plus times annually, but he's an excellent defensive option and capable of hitting at least .260 or .270 regularly in the majors. It's problematic at this juncture whether the Cubs simply hand third base over to Olt today, as Luis Valbuena and Cody Ransom have combined for 16 home runs when playing the position, a reasonable platoon that has given the Cubs a .776 OPS, the ninth-best mark in baseball for the position. Hard to believe, eh? Meanwhile, Olt missed time in May for vision problems, but he's fine now and was hitting for power at Triple-A Round Rock. He won't be in my top 10 for mixed leagues at third base for 2014, but he'll be one of my sleepers for sure, and definitely worthy of standard mixed league selection. I'd go get him in a dynasty/keeper format now.

The others in the Cubs' haul aren't likely to make much of a fantasy impact. Right-hander C.J. Edwards is only 21, and was plying his trade at Low-A Hickory. Check back in 2015, at least. Swingman type Justin Grimm is 23 and sports a 6.73 career ERA and 1.67 WHIP, albeit in Texas' playpen. That’s "grim," indeed. Those numbers should get better in the weaker league, but look for Chicago to keep lefty Chris Rusin, Monday's replacement, in the rotation spot. Rusin does not throw hard and, despite decent numbers at Triple-A Iowa, does not come recommended for fantasy owners. Frankly, I'd prefer to see what former Baltimore Orioles right-hander Jake Arrieta can do. Arrieta, acquired in the Scott Feldman trade earlier in July, has made four generally underwhelming starts for Triple-A Iowa, but he has strikeout upside.</OFFER>
 

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Five unexpected trade candidates
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By Jim Bowden | ESPN.com

While the Matt Garza trade that went down on Monday night created a buzz throughout the industry, it was far from a surprise. In fact, everyone knew Garza was going to be dealt, it was just a matter of where.

But every so often we get surprised at the trade deadline, with a big name getting traded that no one expects, like when the St. Louis Cardinals sent Colby Rasmus to the Toronto Blue Jays just before the 2011 deadline.

There is a possibility -- albeit slim -- that one of these five players that no one is expecting will get traded in a blockbuster over the next week.

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Chase Headley 3B, | San Diego Padres

The Padres have told me that they’re not trading Headley or signing him to an extension before July 31. Perhaps they think there will be more of a market at the winter meetings, or that the price will come down considerably after his subpar season. <!--offer-->

I think the best trade value is almost always at the deadline because that is when teams get desperate, and with so many teams needing a third baseman, the Padres could be better off striking now.

Just think, the Angels and Dodgers are getting nothing at the hot corner; the Yankees would love a replacement for Alex Rodriguez; the Pirates could put Headley at third, move Pedro Alvarez to first and Garrett Jones to right field; the Reds could use the switch-hitting bat at third and move Todd Frazier to left.

Furthermore, it's not as if Headley is going to settle for a below-market deal with the Padres this winter. If the club isn't convinced Headley will re-sign, now could be the time to deal.

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Hunter Pence, RF | San Francisco Giants

The Giants have publicly stated they are not trading Pence, and it’s not that I don’t believe them, it’s just that it makes too much sense to deal him.
Let's look at the facts: The Giants are well below .500 and not playing like a playoff team. Pence is a free agent at the end of the season and the Giants haven’t even made him an offer since the season started. Pence wants to stay in San Francisco, but both sides at this point have resigned themselves to negotiate after the season.

As thin as the Giants' farm system is right now, it only makes sense to trade Pence for a prospect bat, arm or both. They can always re-sign him over the winter, giving them the best of both worlds. The trade market for corner outfielders is surprisingly thin beyond Alex Rios and Raul Ibanez, and with teams like the Rangers and Pirates in desperate need of help, there has to be a significant deal available for the Giants.

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Jose Bautista, RF | Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays haven't lived up to preseason expectations and are the only AL East team that isn't in playoff contention. If the Jays want to aggressively reload for 2014 and beyond, they could start with Bautista.

The 32-year-old is still one of the best power hitters in the league and is signed for $14 million per season through 2015 with a team option at the team price for 2016 -- a very reasonably amount for a player of his caliber. With his ability and cost certainty, he could fetch Toronto an impressive return.

The perfect fits in my opinion are the Rangers and Pirates, two teams with very strong farm systems that need a middle-of-the-order bat who can play an outfield corner. Bautista fits both molds, and could even DH for the Rangers down the road. (And as I noted elsewhere, Texas could be in the market for a Nelson Cruz replacement.)

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Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP | Seattle Mariners

Iwakuma, 32, is a top-of-the-rotation starter who has a 2.99 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, and I think there are a lot of execs who would prefer him to Garza.

The Mariners love the idea of Iwakuma, Felix Hernandez and top prospect Taijuan Walker fronting their staff next season, and I don't blame them, but considering his age, and the fact that he is signed for $6.5 million next year with a $7 million team option for 2015, he has a ton of trade value. The Mariners could desperately use a power bat, and they'd have to think long and hard about moving Iwakuma if someone dangled a promising young position prospect.

I doubt this will happen, but teams like the Orioles, Indians, Rangers and Rockies sure could use a pitcher like Iwakuma, and have prospects to deal.

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Ervin Santana, RHP | Kansas City Royals

The Royals insist they are still in the pennant race despite being buried in third place, five games under .500. However, GM Dayton Moore knows deep down that they have a more realistic shot at contending next year.

Santana, who will be a free agent this winter, has a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts, and it's doubtful Kansas City will commit to a long-term deal for him. If the Royals think they can exceed the value of the compensatory draft pick they could receive if he leaves as a free agent, they have to move him. (And remember, they only get that draft pick if they make him a qualifying offer, something they might not be willing to do.)

With Garza off the market Santana could be the next best starting pitcher available, which only increases his value.
 

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[h=1]The real value of fantasy stats[/h][h=3]Certain hitting categories can carry more weight than others depending on context[/h]By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

Most fantasy baseball owners know that crafting a balanced lineup can go a long way toward winning your league title. To that end, certain hitters are expected to fill certain roles. When you slot an Everth Cabrera, Eric Young Jr. or Rajai Davis into your lineup, it's expected that your stolen base total will rise. If it doesn't, they haven't done their job. Insert guys such as Joe Mauer, James Loney or Omar Infante into the mix and you're doing so with the expectation that your team's batting average will get a boost. Any power numbers these guys put up are merely icing on the cake.

It's a bit different when we target players with an eye on improving our fantasy team's power. With these bats, we're actually looking for production in not one, but three fantasy categories: home runs, runs scored and RBIs. So if a guy is clearing the wall on a regular basis, yet not really helping you in the latter two of those categories, then he's not pulling his weight. Meanwhile, a player such as Allen Craig may have seen his HR/FB rate tumble by 6.1 percent so far this season, resulting in only 10 total homers thus far in 2013, and only one in July. But considering he is tied for fourth in the majors with 79 RBIs, it's not a tragedy that he's well off his 2012 power pace.

So how can we identify which players are truly helping fantasy owners across the board in all three power categories, as opposed to simply padding their stats with "empty" homers? Take for example, Raul Ibanez. He may be tied for sixth overall in home runs with 24, but 14 of those blasts have been of the solo variety. That's big reason why he's not even in the top 30 in RBIs. All that power doesn't seem to have paid the dividends you'd expect from someone with that many homers. Compare Ibanez to Nelson Cruz, who is tied for eighth in RBIs despite hitting just one fewer homer.

The warning signs were there, in the form of wasted power.

[h=3]The value of power[/h]
By taking the run production of each hitter (R + RBI - HR) and dividing that by the number of home runs they have hit, we're able to come up with a number that tells us exactly how much a player's production has been affected by both his inability to drive in runners without the benefit of clearing the fences, as well as by his teammates' ability to get on base ahead of him in the lineup so that he's not constantly settling for solo shots.

Looking at the top culprits in this list (minimum eight home runs) yields the following names:

NameTeamPAHRRRBIWasted Power
Raul IbanezMariners3132439562.96
Adam DunnWhite Sox3722441613.25
Pedro AlvarezPirates3512440623.25
J.P. ArencibiaBlue Jays3361735433.59
Chris DavisOrioles4123774973.62
Dan UgglaBraves3751948443.84
Nelson CruzRangers3992343703.91
Domonic BrownPhillies3982451694.00
Adrian BeltreRangers4162256574.14
Chris CarterAstros3521845484.17
Mark TrumboAngels4122152574.19
Edwin EncarnacionBlue Jays4172662744.23
Carlos GonzalezRockies4122671664.27
Justin RuggianoMarlins3141232324.33
B.J. UptonBraves318823204.38
Mitch MorelandRangers3131332384.38

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The lower the number, the worse a player's production in the three power categories, and the more "wasted power." In addition to Ibanez, we see some other "frustrating" players, such as batting average parasites Adam Dunn and Dan Uggla.

Justin Ruggiano's appearance on this list should be no surprise. After all, he plays for a Miami team that ranks last in the majors in batting average and next to last in terms of runs scored, a good 54 runs behind the next-worst club. He doesn't have a lot of opportunity to drive in runs or get driven in himself.

However, wasted power tells only half the story. After all, Chris Davis is also on this list. If he continues to hit home runs at a pace of one per 9.8 at-bats, even at a lower "payout," you're still going to get a lot more out of him in terms of power than Jay Bruce, who has a 5.15 WP, but who hits a home run only once every 20.5 at-bats.

If we normalize our numbers to factor in this frequency of power, we can get a more accurate picture of exactly where we should look for our power needs. Let's take a look at a list of the best and worst players in terms of this new calculation, among hitters with a minimum of eight home runs. First, the tops:

Top 15TeamPAHRRRBIWasted PowerAdjusted WP
Chris DavisOrioles4123774973.623.25
Miguel CabreraTigers4433176964.553.18
Allen CraigCardinals39410527711.903.02
Freddie FreemanBraves36410506410.402.86
Brandon PhillipsReds4031248799.582.85
Paul GoldschmidtDiamondbacks4232162795.712.84
David OrtizRed Sox3481951655.112.79
Matt HollidayCardinals3531364477.542.78
Adam JonesOrioles4332069695.902.73
Matt CarpenterCardinals4219754812.672.71
Carlos GonzalezRockies4122671664.272.69
Edwin EncarnacionBlue Jays4172662744.232.64
Jason KipnisIndians3911556626.872.63
Mike NapoliRed Sox3801350627.622.61
Michael CuddyerRockies3331646565.382.58
Marlon ByrdMets3221743564.822.55
Mike TroutAngels4431667617.002.53
Daniel NavaRed Sox3721052529.402.53

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Marlon Byrd, prior to last week, was owned in only 64.2 percent of ESPN standard leagues but his presence in the company of some of the other names on this list is certainly part of the rationale behind his 32.5 percent ownership increase over the past seven days. Both Byrd and Daniel Nava are still on the waiver wire in some leagues, which is something that cannot be said about Martin Prado, Howie Kendrick and Joe Mauer, all located in our bottom 15:

Bottom 15TeamPAHRRRBIWasted PowerAdjusted WP
B.J. UptonBraves318823204.381.1
Rickie WeeksBrewers3381036224.801.42
David MurphyRangers3511032325.401.54
Miguel MonteroDiamondbacks369832337.131.54
Justin RuggianoMarlins3141232324.331.66
Luis ValbuenaCubs301928315.561.66
Carlos PenaAstros325838256.881.69
Martin PradoDiamondbacks403840378.631.71
Jason CastroAstros3471240325.001.73
Andrelton SimmonsBraves418951328.221.77
Vernon WellsYankees3391034376.101.8
J.P. ArencibiaBlue Jays3361735433.591.82
Howie KendrickAngels3951142416.551.82
Mitch MorelandRangers3131332384.381.82
Joe MauerTwins420851349.631.83

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Other disappointments include the injured B.J. Upton, as well as double-digit sluggers such as J.P. Arencibia and Mitch Moreland. Perhaps it is time to swap out some of these "wastes" for players who are making their power count a little bit more across the board such as Brandon Moss, Alejandro De Aza or Torii Hunter.

Remember, one statistic never tells the whole story, but when you go looking for power, the actual number of home runs a player has hit might be the most misleading one of them all.

[h=3]The power of value[/h]
Before I go, I'd like to try to get you thinking about the value of fantasy stats in a slightly different way. Jumping off from the concept that not all home runs are created equal, is the question of which has more pure fantasy value: a home run or a stolen base? If you had your choice to trade a player with 20 home runs for a player with speed, how many steals would a player have to have in order to be considered equal value? Would it take a 30-steal guy or would the bar be set much lower?

Looking at the total stats for the season, you'll see that there have been 2,939 total homers hit so far in 2013, but only 1,635 successful stolen bases. Because steals are the "more precious commodity," in terms of pure value, they're worth about 1.8 times more to a fantasy owner than a home run. In other words, the exchange rate for a Chris Carter (18 HR, 0 SB) -- all else being equal -- would be a Denard Span (0 HR, 10 SB).

Of course, that doesn't mean I'm going to send Evan Longoria packing for D.J. LeMahieu just because the combined value of each player's home runs and stolen bases is just about even. In that case, certainly "all else" is far from equal. But it's important to know exactly how much each stat is truly worth in relation to all the other categories before you go shopping so you don't end up letting your presuppositions set the bar at a level that may prevent you from making a deal that's actually more than fair. After all, I'd wager that each one of us has a skewed view on what the "average player's" stats look like.

Humor me and go to the ESPN Player Rater for a second and scroll down the list of hitters until you reach the name of the player who you think is the closest to the league average across all five offensive categories. Got that name in mind? OK. Let's check our work together, and see if your perception matches reality or not.

Based on the overall stats accrued by major players this season, we can calculate an approximate average value fairly quickly, which I have done in the following table:

AVGHRRRBISB
League Overall Totals.2542939.0012568119561635
Average Per Team.25497.97418.93398.5354.5
Average Per Lineup Spot.25410.8946.5544.286.06

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The real-life player who comes closest to this theoretical average is ranked No. 86 on the Player Rater. May I introduce you to Mr. Average 2013:

AVGHRRRBISB
Kelly Johnson.2521535467
Average Per Lineup Spot (Rounded).2541147446

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Essentially, this delineates Johnson as the "Wandy Line" for hitters. Ranked above this point, and you need to have that player in the lineup regardless of opponent. Below this point, you're likely getting below-average numbers in at least one, if not several categories and you should start or sit based on a closer analysis of the categorical weaknesses of your lineup and which players best produce at an above-average rate for those targeted statistics.

OK. One last example that not all stats are what they seem before we end this parade: Which one of the following two stat lines would you want to have added to your roster for the rest of the season?

AVGHRRRBISB
Player A.240622253
Player B.210622253

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Obviously, the only difference here is the batting average, so why wouldn't you want the player with the better batting average? The answer lies in the one stat I didn't provide you with: each player's at-bat total. If Player A gave you 300 at-bats of his .240 average, while Player B was able to accrue the same exact counting stats over just 100 at-bats of a .210 average, then it's possible you might want to choose Player B.

If I have a team currently with 5,000 at-bats and a batting average of .256 or higher, it actually hurts me more to have Player A added to my roster than it does Player B. And the higher my current average, the larger the negative impact would be.

HitsABTeam Batting Average
Current Stats12805000.256
Add Player A (.240)13525300.25509
Add Player B (.210)13015100.2551

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Sure, that .00001 may not seem like a whole lot of difference, and it probably wouldn't cost you a fantasy crown if you chose Player A. But hopefully, this extreme-case example might well keep you from dismissing a trade deadline deal for the likes of Travis Hafner or Mark Reynolds out of fear that even a small dose of their toxic batting averages somehow makes them less ownable than a Todd Frazier or Russell Martin. If you're saying no without even thinking about it, you need to change the way you think about value.

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[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.
<CENTER>#</CENTER>Player, Team<CENTER>Pos
Rk</CENTER>
<CENTER>Prv
Rk</CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER><CENTER>#</CENTER>Player, Team<CENTER>Pos
Rk</CENTER>
<CENTER>Prv
Rk</CENTER>
1Mike Trout, LAAOF1276Jason Heyward, AtlOF3374
2Miguel Cabrera, Det3B1177Kyle Seager, Sea3B873
3Carlos Gonzalez, ColOF2478Asdrubal Cabrera, CleSS859
4Robinson Cano, NYY2B1379Eric Hosmer, KC1B1266
5Paul Goldschmidt, Ari1B1780Coco Crisp, OakOF3496
6Andrew McCutchen, PitOF3581Elvis Andrus, TexSS983
7Chris Davis, Bal1B2682Alejandro De Aza, CWSOF3595
8David Wright, NYM3B2883Pedro Alvarez, Pit3B961
9Edwin Encarnacion, Tor1B31184Shane Victorino, BosOF36101
10Joey Votto, Cin1B41085Jimmy Rollins, PhiSS1086
11Adrian Beltre, Tex3B31886Aramis Ramirez, Mil3B10118
12Prince Fielder, Det1B51487Nick Markakis, BalOF37121
13Jose Bautista, TorOF41788Kendrys Morales, Sea1B1392
14Adam Jones, BalOF51389Nate McLouth, BalOF38116
15Troy Tulowitzki, ColSS12390Chase Headley, SD3B1180
16Evan Longoria, TB3B41291Martin Prado, Ari3B1279
17Dustin Pedroia, Bos2B22192Pablo Sandoval, SF3B1388
18Buster Posey, SFC11693Alfonso Soriano, ChCOF39120
19Bryce Harper, WshOF62094Norichika Aoki, MilOF40136
20Carlos Gomez, MilOF71595Matt Wieters, BalC7111
21Jason Kipnis, Cle2B32496Carl Crawford, LADOF4194
22Hanley Ramirez, LADSS2997J.J. Hardy, BalSS1193
23Jacoby Ellsbury, BosOF82298Jonathan Lucroy, MilC884
24Allen Craig, StL1B63099Victor Martinez, DetC990
25Ian Kinsler, Tex2B425100Curtis Granderson, NYYOF4269
26Jean Segura, MilSS326101Adam LaRoche, Wsh1B14106
27Justin Upton, AtlOF934102Jayson Werth, WshOF4398
28Jay Bruce, CinOF1029103Adam Lind, Tor1B15100
29Jose Reyes, TorSS427104Leonys Martin, TexOF44105
30Alex Rios, CWSOF1139105Brian McCann, AtlC1076
31Yasiel Puig, LADOF1243106Alexei Ramirez, CWSSS12110
32Michael Cuddyer, ColOF1354107Daniel Murphy, NYM2B1297
33Albert Pujols, LAA1B736108Adam Dunn, CWS1B16107
34David Ortiz, BosDH132109Wil Myers, TBOF4589
35Shin-Soo Choo, CinOF1435110Erick Aybar, LAASS13104
36Yadier Molina, StLC242111Melky Cabrera, TorOF46132
37Adrian Gonzalez, LAD1B837112Michael Brantley, CleOF47126
38Ian Desmond, WshSS538113Colby Rasmus, TorOF48112
39Manny Machado, Bal3B545114Jed Lowrie, OakSS14102
40Brandon Phillips, Cin2B548115Jhonny Peralta, DetSS15123
41Freddie Freeman, Atl1B933116Justin Morneau, Min1B17140
42Starling Marte, PitOF1550117Todd Frazier, Cin3B14142
43Giancarlo Stanton, MiaOF1628118Alcides Escobar, KCSS16139
44Alex Gordon, KCOF1755119Ichiro Suzuki, NYYOF49133
45Carlos Beltran, StLOF1844120Chris Carter, Hou1B18128
46Nelson Cruz, TexOF1949121Brett Lawrie, Tor3B15131
47Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh3B631122Salvador Perez, KCC1185
48Hunter Pence, SFOF2062123Raul Ibanez, SeaOF50134
49Matt Holliday, StLOF2141124Jedd Gyorko, SD2B13109
50Austin Jackson, DetOF2240125Brandon Belt, SF1B19113
51Ben Zobrist, TB2B660126Rickie Weeks, Mil2B14115
52Domonic Brown, PhiOF2346127Brandon Moss, Oak1B20137
53Yoenis Cespedes, OakOF2452128David Freese, StL3B16129
54Everth Cabrera, SDSS647129Dan Uggla, Atl2B15108
55Carlos Santana, CleC367130Michael Morse, SeaOF51114
56Matt Carpenter, StL2B763131Andre Ethier, LADOF52127
57Anthony Rizzo, ChC1B1075132Justin Ruggiano, MiaOF53144
58Joe Mauer, MinC457133Jason Castro, HouC12122
59Chase Utley, Phi2B864134Nick Franklin, SeaSS17117
60Billy Butler, KC1B1168135Anthony Rendon, Wsh2B16119
61Matt Kemp, LADOF2571136A.J. Pierzynski, TexC13124
62Mark Trumbo, LAAOF2677137Nolan Arenado, Col3B17141
63Josh Hamilton, LAAOF2753138Trevor Plouffe, Min3B18143
64Dexter Fowler, ColOF2870139Nick Swisher, CleOF54146
65Josh Donaldson, Oak3B765140Nate Schierholtz, ChCOF55NR
66Desmond Jennings, TBOF2956141Neil Walker, Pit2B17NR
67Jose Altuve, Hou2B951142Carlos Ruiz, PhiC14NR
68Howie Kendrick, LAA2B1072143Brad Miller, SeaSS18NR
69Starlin Castro, ChCSS781144Marco Scutaro, SF2B18NR
70Torii Hunter, DetOF3082145Eric Young Jr., NYMOF56NR
71Mike Napoli, BosC5103146Matt Adams, StL1B21NR
72Michael Bourn, CleOF3158147Paul Konerko, CWS1B22NR
73Aaron Hill, Ari2B1191148Daniel Nava, BosOF57NR
74Wilin Rosario, ColC678149Kelly Johnson, TB2B19NR
75Brett Gardner, NYYOF3287150Logan Morrison, Mia1B23130

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Bits: Marlins sport new-look lineup
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Eric Karabell

Things haven't been going so well for the Miami Marlins lately, a fact underscored by the team literally not scoring a run in Milwaukee this past weekend, but perhaps all it takes is a few top prospects to change fortunes. On Tuesday, the Marlins not only scored, but won their second consecutive game at Coors Field, and did so after promoting outfielders Christian Yelich and Jake Marisnick from Double-A Jacksonville.

Yelich, the sweet-swinging lefty who was on display at the Futures Game at Citi Field recently, had three singles and a pair of RBIs out of the No. 2 lineup slot. Marisnick, a right-handed hitting center fielder secured in the seemingly lopsided offseason trade with the Toronto Blue Jays, went hitless in four at-bats from the No. 6 spot. The third starting outfielder, by the way, is someone you've probably never heard of. Get used to Giancarlo Stanton hitting plenty more home runs the rest of 2013 and in future years. It really is an impressive outfield, and we can finally say goodbye to the likes of Juan Pierre and Justin Ruggiano having value, though it'd be nice if they were on other teams supplying some.

As noted in this Tuesday video, Yelich is the better prospect, but he has had a challenging season dealing with injuries, and Marisnick might offer more initial fantasy value because he has run more. I can't make a great case for either in 10- or 12-team formats this season, but if you're in a dynasty league, act now. Of course, that's not why the Marlins won Tuesday: They did so because right-hander Jose Fernandez is really special. He might not have quite the numbers of young New York Mets ace Matt Harvey, but the Cuban import seems to be flying way under the radar in terms of value for 2013 and the future. With his seven innings of two-run ball at Coors Field Tuesday, Fernandez boasts a 2.74 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and a strikeout per inning. He's got only two fewer wins than Harvey in one fewer outing and it's worth reminding that both pitchers are likely to be shut down before the second half of September. Why not enjoy their numbers the next six or seven weeks?
Harvey could really end up as one of the top five starting pitchers in 2014 drafts, and I won't deny how good he is. Where is Fernandez going? Why isn't he being discussed as a top-20 possibility? Well, I'm not downgrading him based on the Marlins franchise. After all, which outfield would one prefer between the Mets and Marlins? Remove David Wright and New York's infield doesn't impress, either. Miami is building something, too, and Fernandez plus the young outfielders is a great start. For now, let's call Fernandez a sure top-20 starting pitcher in 2014 drafts, but certainly a better value than Harvey.
Box score bits (NL): The Milwaukee Brewers traded closer Francisco Rodriguez to the Baltimore Orioles for a prospect Tuesday, with the immediate fantasy news being that Jim Henderson will likely re-inherit the ninth inning. It's also possible former closer John Axford is back in play; after all, Axford has permitted only one run in 18 innings since June began. For now, add Henderson. As for the Orioles, Jim Johnson is safe in his role, but if he struggles, K-Rod would be next in line. … Speaking of closers, the Pittsburgh Pirates officially shelved Jason Grilli Tuesday with a forearm strain. Mark Melancon is now very popular. Do not trade for Grilli in fantasy, as this might unfortunately take a while. … Struggling Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig got back on track Tuesday (hopefully), with a pair of singles, a walk, two runs scored and his sixth stolen base. Look, you didn't think he'd hit .400 all year, did you? He's still pretty good! … Atlanta Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons is pretty good, too. He launched his 10th home run of the season Tuesday. You can count the number of shortstops with more on one hand. … Quietly, Martin Prado of the Arizona Diamondbacks has reached nine home runs with his blast Tuesday. And his batting average keeps rising. Teammate Adam Eaton had three hits and scored three runs as well. Get them both now while you still can.
Box score bits (AL): Texas Rangers right-hander Alexi Ogando came off the disabled list Tuesday and tossed five reasonable innings against the New York Yankees, allowing three runs and six hits. Ogando, who has been on the DL twice this season, was successful as a starter in 2011, but it's tough to expect he'll stay healthy the rest of the way. … Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera isn't healthy right now, as he sat out Tuesday with a sore left hip flexor muscle. Don't panic; Cabrera is day-to-day, and when he plays he's the best fantasy option in the game. … Los Angeles Angels outfielder Josh Hamilton was once considered one of the best. He isn't anymore. Hamilton sat Monday and Tuesday and will miss a few more games with a sore right ankle. While Hamilton has hit for power the past few weeks (four home runs), the .220 batting average and .250 OBP in that span isn't so exciting. The Angels will likely use former New York Met Collin Cowgill in right field, but don't get excited about his .444 batting average in limited time. … It was an awful outing for Angels closer Ernesto Frieri, as he permitted five Minnesota Twins runs in the 10th inning Tuesday while recording one out. Frieri is not wearing down, it was just one bad night, and it's doubtful manager Mike Scioscia wants to change to lefty Scott Downs or setup man Garrett Richards.
 

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Closer Chart

By Fantasy Staff | ESPN.com

[h=4]Fantasy bullpen organization chart (last updated July 24)[/h]The chart below breaks down all 30 major-league teams' bullpens in terms of relievers' proximity to the closer role, not their overall fantasy value. Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
"Closer" is either that team's officially designated closer, or the pitcher most likely to get the team's next save chance. "Next in line" is the pitcher next-most likely to take over if something happens to the closer, or the one who might get any save chances on the closer's nights off. "Stealth" is a dark-horse candidate for saves, for those digging deep. These pitchers typically don't pose an imminent threat to the closer's job security, but might, given time. "Looming" is a pitcher who has his sights set on the closer role but whose circumstances might currently prevent him from doing so. Generally speaking, usual closers who are on hurt and/or on the disabled list (designated as "Inj." or "DL"), bereavement list ("BL") or restricted list ("RL"), closer-worthy pitchers currently working out of the rotation, specialists (especially lefties) or "next in line" options presently in the minors fit the description.
Team <CENTER>Closer </CENTER><CENTER>Next in line </CENTER><CENTER>Stealth </CENTER><CENTER>Looming </CENTER>
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Brad Ziegler J.J. Putz David Hernandez Heath Bell
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Craig Kimbrel Jordan Walden Luis Avilan Anthony Varvaro
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Jim Johnson Francisco Rodriguez Tommy Hunter Troy Patton
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Koji Uehara Junichi Tazawa Matt Thornton Craig Breslow
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Kevin Gregg James Russell Blake Parker Pedro Strop
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Addison Reed Nate Jones Matt Lindstrom Jesse Crain (DL)
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Aroldis Chapman J.J. Hoover Sam LeCure Tony Cingrani
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Chris Perez Joe Smith Cody Allen Vinnie Pestano
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Rafael Betancourt Rex Brothers Matt Belisle Wilton Lopez
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Joaquin Benoit Drew Smyly Bruce Rondon Al Alburquerque
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Jose Veras Jose Cisnero Wesley Wright Josh Fields
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Greg Holland Aaron Crow Luke Hochevar Kelvin Herrera
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Ernesto Frieri Scott Downs Kevin Jepsen Ryan Madson (DL)
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Kenley Jansen Paco Rodriguez Ronald Belisario Brandon League
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Steve Cishek Mike Dunn A.J. Ramos Chad Qualls
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Jim Henderson John Axford Brandon Kintzler Mike Gonzalez
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Glen Perkins Casey Fien Josh Roenicke Jared Burton
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Bobby Parnell LaTroy Hawkins David Aardsma Josh Edgin
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Mariano Rivera David Robertson Boone Logan Shawn Kelley
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Grant Balfour Ryan Cook Sean Doolittle Pat Neshek
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Jonathan Papelbon Antonio Bastardo Justin De Fratus Jacob Diekman
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Mark Melancon Justin Wilson Bryan Morris Jason Grilli (DL)
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Edward Mujica Trevor Rosenthal Seth Maness Carlos Martinez
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Huston Street Dale Thayer Luke Gregerson Joe Thatcher
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Sergio Romo Santiago Casilla Jose Mijares Jeremy Affeldt (DL)
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Tom Wilhelmsen Oliver Perez Yoervis Medina Charlie Furbush
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Fernando Rodney Joel Peralta Kyle Farnsworth Jake McGee
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Joe Nathan Tanner Scheppers Neal Cotts Joakim Soria
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Casey Janssen Steve Delabar Brett Cecil Sergio Santos (DL)
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Rafael Soriano Drew Storen Tyler Clippard Craig Stammen

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[h=1][/h]
What's next for Atlanta Braves rotation?
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By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

On the surface, it appears that the Atlanta Braves have been blessed with much luck concerning the health of their starting pitchers this season. But that the luck is changing. They entered Thursday having used a mere six starting pitchers all season, tied with the Detroit Tigers and Oakland Athletics for fewest this season, and one of those fellows has started only once. But things have changed recently, of course, as underrated lefty Paul Maholm hit the disabled list with a left wrist contusion and veteran right-hander Tim Hudson saw his season end prematurely in a fluke incident Wednesday with New York Mets speedster Eric Young Jr.

From a fantasy and even real-life perspective, though, I don’t think the Braves are going to be worse off when Alex Wood and Brandon Beachy join the rotation permanently. And both are really, really good. Wood has made one start this season and had been scheduled to pitch Thursday before the Hudson injury. I’ve been touting him as a fantasy addition for 12-team leagues and deeper ones for a while, waiting for his eventual promotion. A few weeks ago, the Braves sent the left-hander to Triple-A Gwinnett to get stretched out -- he’s been a long reliever for the Braves after starting throughout the minors -- and word is that he’ll be capped at 90 pitches against the New York Mets. No matter, he’s sticking around.

Beachy, of course, is a bit more accomplished at the big league level, having struck out 169 hitters in a mere 141 2/3 innings in his breakout 2011 season and then posting a league-leading 2.00 ERA over 13 starts in 2012 before his elbow blew out. Beachy’s WHIP was 0.963 in that injury-shortened season, and his strikeout rate remained strong. He’s been close to returning to the Braves from Tommy John surgery for a month now, and the unfortunate Hudson injury clears room for him. Nothing against Maholm and Hudson, but Wood and Beachy can certainly be upgrades, and fantasy owners should get interested quickly.

Hudson was owned in more than 70 percent of ESPN standard leagues entering his Wednesday start at Citi Field, which he won with 7 2/3 strong innings. Then Young awkwardly and unintentionally stepped on and broke Hudson’s ankle on a play at first base. Hudson had won four consecutive outings, always helps fantasy owners with WHIP and has been durable for more than a decade, and we should thank him for that, but now he must be dropped in all formats. His season is over and, at 38, he’s a poor keeper candidate. Plus, he might be on another team, and in this case, it would likely adversely affect his projection.

Here’s what I see happening with the Braves rotation from here on out: Wood, 22, has made an impressive and quick run through the Braves system after being a second-round choice in the 2012 draft. He will strike hitters out, and after he pitches well Thursday, he’ll be a top-50 mixed league starter the rest of this season. I have trusted Atlanta starters for two decades as the coaches rarely make poor decisions about who should be in the rotation. I would take Wood over a few names among the top 50 starting pitchers on the Player Rater, including Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, A.J. Griffin, Jorge De La Rosa, Kyle Lohse, Scott Feldman, Eric Stults, Miguel Gonzalez and Chris Tillman.

Beachy returns for a pair of enticing starts next week, at home against the Colorado Rockies and at Philadelphia against an underachieving team that thought it was wise to hit Delmon Young cleanup Wednesday. I like Beachy, due to the strikeout potential, more than Wood, and more than what Hudson would have done, and what Maholm will do. With underrated lefty Mike Minor -- tops among Braves starters this season on the Player Rater -- and young, improving right-hander Julio Teheran locked in place, that leaves three rotation spots. Wood and Beachy take two of them. I think Maholm’s health situation is minor. In fact, if the Braves didn’t have incredible depth, he probably would have avoided a DL stint in the first place. I think the Braves will promote Maholm back to the rotation next week, and Kris Medlen, the darling of 2012 but who has been merely average in 2013, will assume a bullpen role, perhaps a prominent one setting up.

Medlen has not looked like the same guy from last season, with an inflated hit rate, depressed strikeout mark and a lot more walks. His strand rate from 2012 has dropped quite a bit, and his .261 BABIP has risen, not surprisingly. He’s still useful, but I have to admit his fall from grace isn’t a surprise. I didn’t draft him anywhere. I didn’t expect him in a bullpen, but still, that’s the Braves. They develop great arms all the time. If only they could help the underwhelming offense. Medlen is scheduled to start this weekend against the St. Louis Cardinals, but based on a 5.45 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over the past month, I don’t know why you’d want to use him in that matchup regardless.
 

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