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hacheman@therx.com
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Bits: Samardzija bests Zimmermann
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Eric Karabell

It's not terribly uncommon for a pitcher to be among the top 10 in strikeouts and walks in the same season. Texas Rangers right-hander Yu Darvish achieved this distinction last season, Washington Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez was close, and San Francisco Giants right-hander Tim Lincecum is no stranger to these results. This season Chicago Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardzija and Cleveland Indians right-hander Justin Masterson are on path to join the list, but more outings like Monday's will cause Samardzija to fall short in one of the categories. This is a good thing. Samardzija fanned five and issued zero walks in his complete-game victory over the Nationals, hopefully signaling he's back on track.

Samardzija has struggled with command this season, especially since the All-Star break, entering Monday with a 5.09 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in those six starts. On Monday, the Samardzija of 2012 returned, as the Nationals were 2-for-18 on at-bats ending with a pitch in the upper half of the strike zone, and he averaged 3.3 pitches per plate appearance, one of his most efficient outings of 2013. Only one of the six hits he allowed went for extra bases, a solo home run by Nationals catcher Wilson Ramos, and Samardzija registered just his third walk-free outing of the season. He walked four Cincinnati Reds in his previous start, after opening August by issuing five free passes against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Monday's version, in which he threw first-pitch strikes to 19 of 32 hitters, was considerably cleaner.

<OFFER>While Samardzija had been struggling, I still find it hard to believe he was one of the most-dropped starting pitchers in ESPN standard leagues. It's not often a pitcher with a palatable season ERA and WHIP and right around a strikeout per inning -- Samardzija is fourth among qualified starters in K/9 -- is sitting on the free-agent wire. The Cubs aren't having the best season, but the Notre Dame product is on pace for 219 strikeouts. Considering his xFIP is a respectable 3.50, it doesn't seem wise to simply send that to waivers. In fact, you shouldn't.

The Cubs also got multihomer games from outfielder Nate Schierholtz and infielder Donnie Murphy. Schierholtz, who now has 18 blasts, has been a consistent run-producer against right-handed pitching all season; he's a fine daily-league option because you know he's sitting against lefties. He has been hot of late, with four home runs in 10 games, and his six RBIs Monday certainly gives weekly head-to-head owners a nice start. Murphy, a journeyman called up from Triple-A Iowa earlier this month who is handling third base regularly -- Mike Olt isn't hitting at all in Iowa -- now has six home runs in 13 games. An NL-only owner can certainly do worse.

Box score bits (NL): Meanwhile, Nationals right-hander Jordan Zimmermann was hammered for eight runs in five innings by a Cubs team that had been shut out in four of its past six home games. Zimmermann entered Monday with a 1.59 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in August, numbers that don't look right together. I've been stopping short of referring to him as a fantasy ace all season because of his lack of strikeouts. Still, you can't drop him. … New York Mets rookie catcher Travis d'Arnaud was hitless in three at-bats Monday, and 0-for-7 after three games, but there's definitely a bright side. First, the Mets intend to play d'Arnaud regularly, with John Buck assuming the backup role. Second, d'Arnaud saw 25 pitches in his four at-bats Monday. His plate approach should help him hit for a decent batting average. … Meanwhile, Mets outfielder Marlon Byrd tied his career high with his 20th home run Monday. It's hard to believe, but Byrd, now 35, still isn't showing signs of slowing down. He has hit .322 over the past 30 days. Perhaps next March, owners won't be so quick to dismiss a seemingly irrelevant hitter with a starting job. … It's pretty clear what Milwaukee Brewers infielder Juan Francisco is good at. Since his two-homer game last Wednesday, Francisco is 1-for-17, and he has whiffed in each of his past eight at-bats. The hit was, of course, a home run. … Philadelphia Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon saved Monday's game, and his owners rejoice! Papelbon hadn't saved a game in five weeks, or before the All-Star break. In that span, five relievers, including Miami Marlins closer Steve Cishek, have double-digit saves.

Box score bits (AL): Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Desmond Jennings came off the disabled list Monday and hit leadoff, hitting a single in four at-bats. Jennings is close to 100 percent owned in ESPN standard leagues, and is enough of a power/speed option to warrant it. … Baltimore Orioles right-hander Francisco Rodriguez entered in the seventh inning of Monday's loss, with his team down 4-3. Then he allowed three hits and a walk. Put simply, it sure doesn't look like Jim Johnson, who has permitted runs in four consecutive outings and blown three saves in that span, lost the closer role to K-Rod. … David Ortiz played first base Monday for the second time this season. He's not going to get to 20 games, triggering eligibility for 2014, but check your league rules. He could get to five soon. … Oakland Athletics right-hander Jarrod Parker turned his season around months ago, but did you know his ERA is 2.86 since April ended, including Monday's complete-game win over the Seattle Mariners? Parker still isn't owned in even 80 percent of ESPN standard leagues, despite his excellent pitching. … Neither of the top two Los Angeles Angels hitters from draft day played Monday. Outfielder Mike Trout missed the game because of hamstring tightness, but hopes to play Tuesday. In other words, don't panic. Meanwhile, it was announced that first baseman Albert Pujols, still owned in more than half of ESPN's standard leagues, will officially miss the rest of the season. Feel free to finally move on in redraft leagues, if you haven't already.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Potential stolen-base help[/h][h=3]Plus, Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout still shine despite nagging injuries[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

When life gives you 26 hitting-related fantasy baseball topics of equal merit, you make alphabet soup!

Wait, what? That's not how the saying goes?


Oh well. It works for these purposes, as, at a busy time -- and a critical one as league standings are concerned, with head-to-head playoffs around the corner -- there's plenty to be said and limited space in which to say it.

So just as we did in Tuesday's "60 Feet 6 Inches," let's play the alphabet-soup game, one topic for each of the 26 letters. Here we go …

A is for Andrus. After a disappointing 2012 campaign in the category, Elvis Andrus has quietly recaptured the success he displayed on the base paths during the first three seasons of his big league career, putting himself in line to both set a new personal best in terms of stolen bases as well as perhaps earn the No. 2 spot in the category in baseball by year's end. At 87.2 percent (34-for-39), he's already enjoying a career-best success rate, and that's critical, considering that Andrus has regressed with the bat during his age-24 season (his .257 batting average and .630 OPS would be career worsts). More to consider: League-wide stolen-base production is down 17 percent from last season, and we've already seen one of the best in the category, Everth Cabrera, lost for the year due to suspension. Andrus might be frustrating to own, only helpful in steals and runs scored, but he has been quite a bit more useful than people think.

B is for Brewers fill-in Khris Davis. Many -- this columnist included -- wrote off the Milwaukee Brewers' stand-ins following the announcement of Ryan Braun's suspension, but since July 22, Davis has batted .340/.404/.760 with a team-leading six home runs, earning starts in each of the team's past six games. Though never touted as a blue-chip prospect, Davis did possess underrated pop throughout his minor league career; he had lifetime .218 isolated power, .217 at the Triple-A level (101 games). He'll presumably be streaky, having whiffed 19 times in 67 at-bats thus far, but could be a handy short-term cog in the 81.8 percent of ESPN leagues in which he's available.


C is for Castro. Starlin Castro will go down as one of 2012's biggest disappointments. The No. 3 shortstop and No. 37 player overall selected on average in ESPN drafts, Castro ranks 25th at his position and 357th overall on our Player Rater, making him marginally useful in NL-only leagues (he's well below the cut-off in mixed). He's on pace for .240-9-41-10 numbers; Mike Aviles easily beat all of those last season. What's worse, Castro has shown no signs of turning it around, batting .188 with one RBI and neither a homer nor a steal in August, and the Chicago Cubs dropped him to eighth in the lineup Tuesday, following a span of six times in the team's previous 11 games that he had batted seventh. The most compelling case to be made in his favor is this: He's 23, with plenty of career in which to improve. Then again, isn't that argument equal in weight for a Brad Miller or Andrelton Simmons?

D is for d'Arnaud. It took 16 trips to the plate, until a two-out double in the eighth inning of Tuesday's game, for Travis d'Arnaud to register his first big league hit. Like his sluggish start to his career, fantasy owners haven't been swarming to the New York Mets' new starting backstop, adding him in only 1.4 percent of ESPN leagues in the past week. D'Arnaud's stock has slipped for an important reason -- an inability to stay consistently healthy -- the most compelling evidence being that he was Keith Law's No. 14 prospect in the preseason, but he failed to crack Law's midseason top 50. Still, it's good to see the Mets giving one of their top prospects a chance after he had tallied .328/.402/.588 numbers in 86 career games at the Triple-A level (with the caveat that those all came in the absurdly hitting-friendly environment of Las Vegas). I'm mostly anti-d'Arnaud as a short-term fantasy option, expecting that he'll need potentially over a year to adapt to the big leagues while proving he can remain on the field, but in a bad year for catchers, NL-only owners might find him a useful No. 2.

E is for Emilio Bonifacio. He's in the midst of a disappointing year, but don't underrate the value of fresh surroundings to Bonifacio. Since joining the Kansas City Royals, he has four stolen bases in six games, earning most of his six starts as an injury fill-in for Mike Moustakas/Lorenzo Cain. Bonifacio's playing time is hardly secure, but consider this: Ned Yost's Royals have attempted the fourth-most steals in baseball (127), and the fourth-best attempts-per-opportunity (7.7 percent, those "opportunities" as judged by Baseball-Reference.com), this season. AL-only and deep-mixed owners might be the only ones to benefit, but cheap speed is cheap speed …

F is for Franklin. Ah, the perils of strikeout-prone hitters. Nick Franklin, a handy power-speed pickup for those who nabbed him around Memorial Day, has slipped into a deep funk since, batting .202/.273/.394 in 26 games since the All-Star break. This shouldn't have come as a complete shock; he's a good yet non-elite prospect who had a tendency in the minors to fall into bad habits at the plate, best evidenced by his 23.0 percent strikeout rate and 0.35 walk-to-K ratio in Triple-A ball in 2012. Franklin should adjust given time, and fortunately for his fantasy owners, he's on a Seattle Mariners team likely to remain patient with him. That said, he's worth benching in mixed leagues for the short term.


G is for Goldschmidt. The No. 4 hitter on our Player Rater, Paul Goldschmidt has, in merely two calendar years (and change), transformed himself into one of the most promising long-term fantasy baseball investments. As he did in 2012, he has made tremendous strides recognizing and driving breaking pitches; he has six home runs and a .355 wOBA in 150 plate appearances that ended with one, and has now lowered his swing-and-miss rate against them from 40 percent in 2011 to 31 in 2012 to 28 this season. He has also answered any questions about his steep platoon split; he's a .293/.396/.530 hitter with 21 of his 31 home runs against right-handers. And, perhaps most importantly for our purposes, he's 13-for-18 on stolen-base attempts, putting him on pace for 17 steals, one shy of his 2012 number. Goldschmidt sure looks like a complete batsman these days, and a legitimate five-category fantasy stud; it's an easy argument to hail him as a first-round candidate for 2014. Best yet for keeper owners: I admit I might have blown the call on my "All-2017 Team" first baseman (understand, though, that I questioned his speed, and the point was bold calls).

H is for Home run/fly ball percentage, or, what partly explains Raul Ibanez's downturn in production the past month. Consider that at the All-Star break, Ibanez's number was 26.1 percent, fourth-highest among players with at least 250 PAs (behind only Chris Davis, Pedro Alvarez and Adam Dunn). Since then, it's 4.0 percent … granted, showing too much regression to the opposite extreme. From 2010-12, Ibanez was a player who homered on approximately 12 percent of his fly balls, a far more realistic expectation for a slugger who calls Safeco Field his home.

I is for Inside the strike zone … or the types of pitches on which Yasiel Puig has enjoyed the most success this season. Consider: His .479 wOBA on pitches in the strike zone is second-best (to Chris Davis) among players with at least 150 such plate appearances; he has a .328 mark on pitches outside the zone. That's significant because pitchers have more recently been challenging him to swing at non-strikes; his 37.5 percent rate of pitches in the zone in August ranks third-lowest. Puig has at least adjusted nicely in the meantime -- he's still a .318 hitter with two homers in the month, after all -- but this is one explanation for why he has (predictably) cooled.

J is for Jeter. After three separate stints on the disabled list this season, Derek Jeter appears on the mend again, having resumed simulated games Monday. But at this point, what confidence could any fantasy owner have that he'll remain on the field consistently enough to contribute? Quadriceps and calf injuries have dogged him since he recovered from last October's broken left ankle, and Jeter has attempted no steals in any of his nine professional games this season, an understandable result. His status as a shortstop -- a position renowned for being thin for our purposes -- and the New York Yankees' leadoff hitter are all you can cling to, but that's straight runs-chasing (a point to be made in an upcoming letter).

K is for Kemp. What an aggravating, injury-plagued season Matt Kemp has endured. He has appeared in 62 and started 59 of the Los Angeles Dodgers' 125 games due to hamstring, shoulder and ankle issues, and according to the team's official website, he's unlikely to return until at least the 40-man roster expansion on Sept. 1. "We thought he'd have a chance before September, but Matt's still not playing," said manager Don Mattingly. Kemp's fantasy owners have remained faithful -- he's owned in 100.0 percent of ESPN leagues -- but I continue to wonder whether he'll contribute much for the remainder of the year. After all, the Dodgers have outfield alternatives, including prospect Joc Pederson after rosters expand, and might take it easy on Kemp with their sights on having him fully healthy for the postseason.

L is for Leonys Martin. Elvis Andrus isn't the only Texas Rangers hitter on a torrid stolen-bases pace; Martin is on track for 35 of his own, or more than he had previously in his professional career (32). But this is as much about Martin's ascent to the leadoff spot in the Texas Rangers' lineup; he has batted .274 with a .326 on-base percentage in 21 games (20 starts) since. Even without Nelson Cruz, this remains a potent Rangers lineup -- adding Alex Rios should only help -- and that means plenty of runs and steals for table-setter Martin.


M is for Miggy's injuries. It's remarkable what Miguel Cabrera can do even at less than 100 percent. Since July 1, he has missed a combined eight games due to back, hip and abdominal issues, each during a separate stint, yet batted .323/.424/.692 with 15 home runs and 38 RBIs in 37 games during that time. Detroit Tigers manager Jim Leyland admitted to the Detroit Free Press afterward that Cabrera "was in some pain" following the slugger's strikeout in the ninth inning of Tuesday's game, yet another ailment that bears watching, but Cabrera's success exemplifies what we say about your studs: They're almost always worth keeping active despite the injury risk.

N is for New York Yankees lineup improvements. This is why one must consider lineup construction, rather than merely season-to-date statistics, when evaluating matchups. The No. 23 team in baseball for the season in wOBA (weighted on-base average), No. 26 in OPS and No. 17 in runs scored, these Yankees rank first, first and fifth in those respective categories in the month of August. They've done it by successfully -- let's stop short of saying "brilliantly" -- patching three significant roster holes: They've regained a healthy Alex Rodriguez, improving what was formerly the majors' worst third-base group to an at least league-average level of production; they've acquired Alfonso Soriano to fill their left field/designated hitter voids (look at Vernon Wells' numbers since mid-May); and they've signed Mark Reynolds to boost the right-handed portion of a first-base platoon previously occupied by such poor options as Brent Lillibridge and David Adams. All three, coincidentally, are right-handed, a critical boost for a team that before the All-Star break had the fourth-worst wOBA in baseball against left-handers (.287). This was once a "start-all-lefties-against-them" team; it's now above-average against them, and with this better lineup balance, Yankees hitters should only benefit in terms of runs/RBIs going forward.

O is for On-base percentage … or, the statistic that makes Shin-Soo Choo such a valuable commodity in non-standard leagues. Get this: Choo, currently the No. 47 hitter on our Player Rater, ranks 18th in leagues that go 6x6 replacing batting average with on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Choo's 14.8 percent walk rate, second best in the league, has been plenty valuable to the Cincinnati Reds out of the leadoff spot, too. It's a key reason the Reds might have two 100-RBI guys -- Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce -- after not having any in 2012.

P is for Prado. Martin Prado's season batting line (.282-12-59-3) might not be eye-popping, nor even Prado-esque, but after a sluggish start to his first season with the Arizona Diamondbacks, he has picked up the pace of late. He's a .370/.424/.571 hitter with 25 RBIs in 29 games since the All-Star break, earning himself the No. 9 spot among hitters on our Player Rater in the past 30 days, and he has done it despite rotating his 28 starts between third base (17), left field (6) and second base (5). Most encouraging for his rest-of-year prospects: His 7 percent miss rate on swings since the break is second only to noted contact hitter Marco Scutaro (4 percent).

Q is for Quick quiz: How many players find themselves on pace for a 30/30 season? (As an aside, what did you think I'd use the "Q" for, Carlos Quentin? Not many meaningful hitters, or hitting categories, that begin with "Q".) Answer: zero. In fact, the only players who have either already achieved or are on pace for 20/20 campaigns are Carlos Gonzalez, Mike Trout, Carlos Gomez, Andrew McCutchen, David Wright and … Ian Desmond! In a lost year for the Washington Nationals, Desmond has been one of their bright spots, earning himself the No. 3 spot among shortstops on our Player Rater. If he accomplishes the feat, it'd be the second consecutive season in which he has done it, and as a soon-to-be-28-year-old, that should probably earn him at least as good a spot in 2014 rankings as he received this year.

R is for Reddick. What an aggravating, aggravating player Josh Reddick has been to own this season. A year after belting a professional-best 32 home runs, Reddick has hit only 10 out of the park this season … five of them during that wondrous two-day span in Toronto on Aug. 9-10. Since then, he has batted .229 without an extra-base hit and with a 31.0 percent K rate; in short, Reddick has gone right back to the disappointing character he was before that weekend (one that many fantasy owners missed as he resided on their bench or league's free-agent list).

S is for Springer. Might George Springer be the most fantasy-appealing prospect remaining among possible 2013 call-ups? The power-speed dynamo has rattled off a .311/.427/.661 triple-slash line with 17 home runs and 16 stolen bases in 51 games for Triple-A Oklahoma City, putting him within four home runs and one steal of a 40/40 minor league season (he also had 19 homers and 23 steals in Double-A). He's the top prospect for a Houston Astros team playing for the future, so a September promotion seemingly makes sense, but it's unclear yet whether the team will want to advance its timetable for putting him on the 40-man roster to this season. What's clear: Springer's five-category ability would make him an instant pickup in all leagues if he's promoted.


T is for Trout. I've received plenty of feedback about my recent decision to push Mike Trout ahead of Miguel Cabrera in the "Hit Parade" rankings, and the most logical explanation is by using the past-30 split on our Player Rater to illustrate the impact of lost time: Trout ranks first, Cabrera seventh, thanks in part to Trout having played six more games of the two. So here's why they swapped back this week: Now Trout has had injuries call his value into question, and in his case, back-to-back lost games to a hamstring issue are a mild worry for a guy who generates a good share of value with his legs. As noted with Cabrera above, studs are studs, don't panic. But given their circumstances, I think the switches -- when I've made them -- are correct.

U is for Uggla: You wouldn't normally think that a player with a .186 batting average warranted even a blurb, but in Dan Uggla's case, he's on the mend, and the reason for his absence perhaps partly explains that poor number. He underwent LASIK surgery Aug. 16, after unexpectedly landing on the DL three days earlier, and according to the Atlanta Braves' official website has recaptured his 20/15 vision from previous seasons (it was 20/30 before the surgery). What's more, Uggla resumed batting practice Tuesday, giving him a realistic chance of hitting his personal goal of an Aug. 28 activation, on the first day he's eligible. Might LASIK be the catalyst for an Uggla late-season surge, or at least a return to the point that he's no longer a batting-average killer? It's possible and certainly worth the chance, being that he had missed 8 percent more often on all swings in 2013 comparative to his 2010-12 average, and 9 percent more often on swings at pitches in the strike zone. Available in 42.4 percent of ESPN leagues, Uggla could mount a top-10 second baseman run in September.

V is for Venable. In the past 30 days on our Player Rater, only seven players place better than San Diego Padres outfielder Will Venable. Formerly a "brilliant-platoon" candidate -- the type daily-owners love and weekly owners use during weeks heavy on right-handed opponents -- Venable has actually held his own on his bad side since the All-Star break. He's a .360 hitter with three of his six home runs in 25 plate appearances against lefties during that time, earning starts in four straight against a lefty and 16 consecutive games overall. The more than 50 percent of ESPN fantasy owners who have scooped him up in the past week might have landed themselves a nice little spark plug for the final weeks of the season.

W is for Wong. Kolten Wong, a dark horse candidate for the St. Louis Cardinals' second-base job during spring training, quietly had a much better season for Triple-A Memphis than people gave him credit. He batted .303/.369/.466 there, but it was his 0.68 walk-to-strikeout ratio and 20-for-21 performance attempting steals that stand out. Though the Cardinals hinted that his call-up this past Friday was to deepen the team's bench, Wong has started four of the team's five games since, three at David Freese's expense and one at Matt Carpenter's. It's a frustrating development if you own either Carpenter, a .316/.379/.461 hitter in August, or Freese, .273/.359/.455 in the month, but NL-only owners who scooped up Wong for potentially cheap steals should be pleased. Wong is 2-for-2 in steals already, but he'll need to hit in order to remain in an even division of the second/third base at-bats.


X is for "X-man." That's the nickname for Xander Bogaerts, the Boston Red Sox's top prospect and Keith Law's No. 3 prospect in baseball during his midseason rankings update, who was promoted by the team on Monday and made his big league debut a day later. It's a somewhat puzzling move, being that Bogaerts previously wasn't on the team's 40-man roster and the team had promoted Will Middlebrooks a week earlier to man third base, but manager John Farrell told the Boston Herald that Bogaerts will "rotate through the left side of the infield," which sounds dangerously like a part-time/platoon role. His promotion makes sense from an improving-the-team standpoint, a la Wong above, but there's a key difference between the two: Bogaerts is considered a true blue-chip, superstar-caliber prospect; Wong is a good prospect in his own right but not elite, having failed to make Keith Law's midseason top 50. The Red Sox need to find regular places for Bogaerts, a .284/.369/.453 hitter for Triple-A Pawtucket who has impressive 10.0 percent walk and 0.52 walk-to-K rates during his minor league career, and fantasy owners surely won't find another prospect with comparable upside out of the shortstop position -- perhaps eventually adding third-base eligibility -- off the waiver wire.

Y is for Young. As in, Eric Young Jr., not young players. (Though if you consider 28 "young," it's the best of both worlds!) Young might not be much of a hitter -- he sports a lifetime .259 batting average and has batted .250 for the New York Mets -- but his speed and ability to draw walks have earned him a regular place leading off for his new team; he has started 54 of 57 games since his trade and is 20-for-24 in stolen-base attempts with an 8.3 percent walk rate. Considering the Mets' dearth of quality outfielders, Young seems a safe bet to play every day the rest of the year, and he's available in 60.9 percent of ESPN leagues, if you seek cheap steals.

Z is for Zero. That's the number of home runs hit by Atlanta Braves utilityman Evan Gattis in the team's past 24 games, and during that span he has earned only 14 starts (nine in left field, five at catcher). He's a .183 hitter in 60 at-bats during that time; it appears that part-time duty might be having an adverse effect on him. Amazingly, Gattis remains the No. 15 catcher on our Player Rater for the season, but his rest-of-year value has come greatly into question of late. Anyone banking on him finishing strong is counting on this: The Braves' likelihood to clinch a playoff spot early might result in their regulars gaining additional rest, which might benefit Gattis. But even that's probably not enough to make him more than a No. 2 backstop in NL-only leagues.

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[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.
<CENTER>#</CENTER>Player, Team<CENTER>Pos
Rk</CENTER>
<CENTER>Prv
Rk</CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER><CENTER>#</CENTER>Player, Team<CENTER>Pos
Rk</CENTER>
<CENTER>Prv
Rk</CENTER>
1Miguel Cabrera, Det3B1276Matt Carpenter, StL2B1178
2Mike Trout, LAAOF1177Dexter Fowler, ColOF3574
3Andrew McCutchen, PitOF2378Brett Gardner, NYYOF3675
4Paul Goldschmidt, Ari1B1479Carl Crawford, LADOF3772
5Robinson Cano, NYY2B1680Kendrys Morales, Sea1B1167
6Chris Davis, Bal1B2581Joe Mauer, MinC765
7Adrian Beltre, Tex3B21082Kyle Seager, Sea3B984
8Jacoby Ellsbury, BosOF3783J.J. Hardy, BalSS785
9Adam Jones, BalOF4984Asdrubal Cabrera, CleSS880
10Troy Tulowitzki, ColSS11985Brian McCann, AtlC877
11Joey Votto, Cin1B3886Alexei Ramirez, CWSSS994
12Hanley Ramirez, LADSS21387A.J. Pierzynski, TexC991
13Edwin Encarnacion, Tor1B41488Pablo Sandoval, SF3B1090
14Justin Upton, AtlOF51589Erick Aybar, LAASS1083
15Evan Longoria, TB3B31790David Wright, NYM3B1188
16Carlos Gomez, MilOF61291Adam Dunn, CWS1B1296
17Jose Reyes, TorSS31692Alejandro De Aza, CWSOF3898
18Prince Fielder, Det1B52293Howie Kendrick, LAA2B1297
19Freddie Freeman, Atl1B62094Desmond Jennings, TBOF3989
20Adrian Gonzalez, LAD1B72695Norichika Aoki, MilOF4095
21Matt Holliday, StLOF72396Josh Donaldson, Oak3B12102
22Bryce Harper, WshOF81897Matt Wieters, BalC10110
23Alex Rios, TexOF92798Anthony Rizzo, ChC1B1386
24David Ortiz, BosDH13099Justin Morneau, Min1B14113
25Ian Kinsler, Tex2B234100Coco Crisp, OakOF4193
26Giancarlo Stanton, MiaOF1025101Chris Johnson, Atl3B13103
27Jay Bruce, CinOF1128102Jimmy Rollins, PhiSS1187
28Ian Desmond, WshSS431103Brandon Belt, SF1B15120
29Eric Hosmer, KC1B837104Adam LaRoche, Wsh1B16104
30Dustin Pedroia, Bos2B324105Nate Schierholtz, ChCOF42119
31Buster Posey, SFC121106Justin Smoak, Sea1B17100
32Yasiel Puig, LADOF1229107Jason Castro, HouC11107
33Curtis Granderson, NYYOF1333108Matt Kemp, LADOF4399
34Jean Segura, MilSS532109Andre Ethier, LADOF44118
35Elvis Andrus, TexSS647110Aramis Ramirez, Mil3B14105
36Jose Altuve, Hou2B436111Jedd Gyorko, SD2B13132
37Domonic Brown, PhiOF1438112Alex Rodriguez, NYY3B15127
38Jason Kipnis, Cle2B540113Jed Lowrie, OakSS12111
39Brandon Phillips, Cin2B642114Mike Napoli, BosC12106
40Carlos Gonzalez, ColOF1543115Nate McLouth, BalOF45108
41Allen Craig, StL1B935116Nick Franklin, SeaSS13115
42Jose Bautista, TorOF1611117Will Venable, SDOF46145
43Wil Myers, TBOF1744118Neil Walker, Pit2B14139
44Jason Heyward, AtlOF1849119Michael Brantley, CleOF47116
45Jayson Werth, WshOF1958120Nolan Arenado, Col3B16114
46Ben Zobrist, TB2B739121Christian Yelich, Mia1B18129
47Yadier Molina, StLC292122Colby Rasmus, TorOF48121
48Carlos Beltran, StLOF2045123B.J. Upton, AtlOF49112
49Pedro Alvarez, Pit3B457124Jarrod Saltalamacchia, BosC13126
50Martin Prado, Ari3B563125Michael Saunders, SeaOF50130
51Alfonso Soriano, NYYOF2182126Chase Headley, SD3B17109
52Yoenis Cespedes, OakOF2241127Josh Reddick, OakOF51117
53Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh3B646128Rajai Davis, TorOF52133
54Starling Marte, PitOF2354129Ike Davis, NYM1B19141
55Manny Machado, Bal3B751130Andrelton Simmons, AtlSS14122
56Brett Lawrie, Tor3B859131Stephen Drew, BosSS15131
57Hunter Pence, SFOF2460132Salvador Perez, KCC14128
58Austin Jackson, DetOF2548133Russell Martin, PitC15134
59Shin-Soo Choo, CinOF2653134Ichiro Suzuki, NYYOF53137
60Torii Hunter, DetOF2755135Darin Ruf, PhiOF54144
61Billy Butler, KC1B1064136Jon Jay, StLOF55NR
62Victor Martinez, DetC361137Starlin Castro, ChCSS16101
63Chase Utley, Phi2B856138Yonder Alonso, SD1B20123
64Michael Cuddyer, ColOF2852139Jonathan Villar, HouSS17136
65Michael Bourn, CleOF2950140Todd Frazier, Cin3B18NR
66Carlos Santana, CleC466141Xander Bogaerts, BosSS18NR
67Mark Trumbo, LAAOF3069142Anthony Rendon, Wsh2B15135
68Josh Hamilton, LAAOF3168143Brandon Moss, Oak1B21143
69Alex Gordon, KCOF3262144David Freese, StL3B19125
70Wilin Rosario, ColC571145Dan Uggla, Atl2B16149
71Shane Victorino, BosOF3373146Wilson Ramos, WshC16NR
72Daniel Murphy, NYM2B970147Eric Young Jr., NYMOF56NR
73Jonathan Lucroy, MilC676148Nick Swisher, CleOF57NR
74Aaron Hill, Ari2B1081149Junior Lake, ChCSS19148
75Leonys Martin, TexOF3479150Logan Morrison, Mia1B22NR

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Bits: Jose Bautista lands on disabled list
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By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

A miserable season for the Toronto Blue Jays got a bit worse Tuesday when slugging outfielder Jose Bautista left the afternoon portion of a doubleheader at Yankee Stadium with left hip soreness. It didn’t seem like much at the time, perhaps a needed break for a tired player, but then it became significant when Bautista was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a bone bruise. The team expects to give Bautista a few weeks of rest before evaluating, but as every fantasy owner knows, when the player’s team is floundering in last place this late in the season, it can often mean the player is hardly rushed back to the lineup, if not shut down for the winter.

Bautista enters Wednesday the No. 12 outfielder on the ESPN Player Rater, with 28 home runs and 73 RBIs, and his .259 batting average isn’t helpful, but it’s an improvement on last season. This type of power isn’t readily available in fantasy leagues, but it’s worth asking whether Bautista is a bit overrated; after all, since hitting 97 home runs in 2010-11, he’s battled injuries and presented a batting average problem. Sure, the 55 home runs over 210 games the past two seasons are nice, but is this really a top-20 player, which is where he was selected in ESPN live drafts?

At 32, Bautista isn’t too old to contribute to a winning Blue Jays or fantasy squad, but expectations should be kept in check, too. His walk and fly ball rates dropped this season, and each was paramount in creating the monster who hit 54 home runs a few seasons back. Pitchers don’t fear the guy as much as they used to. He still makes contact, and obviously there’s nothing wrong with 28 home runs, a figure currently topped by only six players, but fantasy owners likely target Bautista hoping for a return to MVP numbers. As of now he’s looking like a fourth-rounder to me for 2014 drafts, and we can only hope he provides something the rest of this season.

As for Toronto’s outfield, it’s a lot of speed and little else, with Rajai Davis, Anthony Gose and Kevin Pillar handling things. If you need power to replace Bautista, stay in the United States and see if the following are available in your league: Nate Schierholtz, Khris Davis, Matt Joyce, Chris Carter, Darin Ruf, Nick Swisher.

Box score bits (AL): The Boston Red Sox unveiled top prospect Xander Bogaerts on Tuesday, and he was hitless in three at-bats. Red Sox fans -- and fantasy owners -- seem to think he is a regular player now, and we hope he hits enough to make it true, but that seems unlikely with shortstop Stephen Drew hitting right-handed pitching well enough and Will Middlebrooks handling third base well of late. … I caught some of the Alex Cobb performance in Baltimore on Tuesday, and it’s hard to imagine anyone is throwing a better curveball right now. Cobb allowed one earned run over six innings, though he seemed to tire in the seventh. He’s a top-50 starting pitcher and should be owned everywhere. … Watching Rick Porcello get tuned up Tuesday, one has to wonder whether lefty Drew Smyly wouldn’t be a significant upgrade. Should Smyly move into the rotation -- and there’s no sign of it happening -- I’d become interested in many leagues. Porcello is just so hittable. … Houston Astros right-hander Jarred Cosart certainly hasn’t seemed overwhelmed in the big leagues. He was leading the Texas Rangers on Tuesday before Adrian Beltre reached out and hit an opposite-field home run the sixth inning. Cosart suffered his first loss in seven outings, and while having 21 strikeouts versus 21 walks is troubling, good offenses are not hitting him. … I’d certainly rather own Oakland Athletics right-hander Sonny Gray, though. Gray permitted two hits in seven dominant innings Tuesday. He’s not losing his rotation spot for anyone. … Perhaps Los Angeles Angels outfielder Peter Bourjos should have stayed on the DL: With Tuesday’s 0-for-6 performance, he’s hitless in 18 at-bats since being activated. Yikes.

Box score bits (NL): Cincinnati Reds lefty Tony Cingrani left his Tuesday outing early with a lower back strain, and it’s tough to see him making his next start. Right-hander Johnny Cueto isn’t ready to come off the DL himself. Perhaps right-hander Daniel Corcino is summoned from Triple-A Louisville, but with his walk rate, I wouldn’t go near him even in an NL-only format. … And there it is, a career-high 21 home runs for New York Mets outfielder Marlon Byrd. I remain amazed. … Fantasy owners need to run away from Miami Marlins right-hander Jacob Turner. He allowed 10 hits and five walks to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday. In his previous outing he walked six Kansas City Royals. His last strikeout came Aug. 9. That’s right, 11 walks and nary a whiff in consecutive starts. Something’s wrong. … With David DeJesus having been traded to the Washington Nationals, where his fantasy value dips to nothing, Junior Lake will handle center field. I understand relying on Lake because he’s shortstop-eligible, but this is not a great fantasy option. He doubled and stole his second base Tuesday, but when the .383 BABIP falls, watch out. … Brandon Belt singled, doubled and tripled Tuesday, and now is hitting .276 for the season, .315 over the past month and is likely to reach 20 home runs. Yes, this is why we’ve been discussing this guy for years. … San Diego Padres right-hander Tyson Ross allowed five runs (four earned) to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday, but really wasn’t that bad. He was probably left in the game a few batters too long. Ross had permitted five runs in his past five outings, with major strikeout totals. If you’re relying on him in a deep league, keep doing so.
 

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Mauer placed on DL: Five fill-in options
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By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Anytime a player gets that little asterisk signifying a disabled list stint next to his name this late in the season, fantasy owners must consider the risks versus the rewards of keeping the player or looking elsewhere. With awesome Minnesota Twins catcher Joe Mauer, who was placed on the seven-day DL on Tuesday with concussion symptoms, there's no question this is a guy worth keeping around. Mauer isn't expected to be out any longer than the minimum DL stay required, which in this case is a week, and I doubt anyone needs a reminder about how good the guy is. He's hitting .324, and if it wasn't for the amazing Miguel Cabrera, yet another batting title would be a realistic possibility.

There's a long-held theory that catchers are poor trade targets in fantasy leagues the later it gets in a season because they tend to get tired and wear down more than regular position players. Frankly, most players wear down, regardless of position, but as San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey proved a year ago, catchers can retain their value as the season progresses, and perhaps even gain value. Mauer is a strong example. His career batting line shows a .324 batting average and .877 OPS before the All-Star break, and a .322 average and an .869 OPS after it. And his September numbers also show no drop-off.

<OFFER>Mauer is one of seven catchers owned in 100 percent of ESPN standard leagues, and that should not change this week. He's a must-own guy, a difference-making fantasy option ranked second among catchers to Yadier Molina -- who recently came off a DL stint of his own -- on the Player Rater. Mauer's DL stint is likely as much about simply giving him a few days off as it is for concussion symptoms, since this isn't exactly a contending squad. He'll resume hitting like a champ next week.

However, if you have the bench space or an opening in your DL slot, you absolutely should be looking for a fill-in catcher, as every base hit and run scored counts and could affect your league title. Here are five readily available catchers to consider adding:

Jason Castro, Houston Astros: It's understandable that his value hasn't picked up more steam in single-catcher formats, but he has been a top-10 catcher for the season, and he's hitting .333 over the past 15 days, with power. I'd rather own him than Mike Napoli, Evan Gattis and Matt Wieters at this point.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Boston Red Sox: He has knocked in a run in four consecutive starts, and registered multiple hits in four of eight. Frankly, the reason to be cautious of Salty is generally his batting average, but with a season mark of .272, that risk seems overblown. The .386 BABIP is ridiculously high for a slow-footed catcher, but it's not likely to regress all the way to the mean over a one-week span.

Wilson Ramos, Washington Nationals: Ramos has been on a run-producing streak of his own lately, with an RBI in six of eight games, including his mammoth home run Monday, his eighth of the season. Eight doesn't sound like much, but Ramos has played in a mere 44 games.

Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals: Concussion symptoms landed him on the seven-day DL a few weeks ago, but hopefully Saturday's home run gets the talented Perez going. He has dropped nearly 100 points of slugging percentage this season, but it's worth noting that in 180 career at-bats in September (and a few in October), he's hitting .339 with power, and his contending team wants him playing every day.

Travis d'Arnaud, New York Mets: This interesting prospect, who got his first major league hit Tuesday with a ringing double, is certainly someone to watch. He has power, has shown good plate discipline, and as long as he can stay healthy, he projects as a potential top-10 option at the position, perhaps as soon as next year. The Mets must deal with the tough Detroit Tigers pitching staff this weekend, but after that it's the more enticing NL East teams like Philly and Miami.
 

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Digging deep for SP options

By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

Bully hitting and manage pitching.

This is the mantra of many successful fantasy players. The idea is pretty straightforward. Regardless of the scoring system, the way to amass hitting points is by sheer force. While talent is obviously important, playing time is just as relevant. More at-bats leads to more hits, homers, steals, etc., which in turn leads to more points.


On the other hand, pitching requires some finesse. In leagues with a cap on innings or starts, you can't just active any ol' guy. Bad efforts on the hill are far more detrimental to your squad than bad efforts at the dish.

That said, sometimes you're forced to play catch-up, which may require taking more chances than you normally would. And in many cases, your only avenue to more points is via pitching.

Today, 15 under-the-radar starting pitchers will be placed "under the microscope." Granted, there's a reason these starters are still available in many leagues, and the ensuing thumbnail sketches are not bold declarations they will assuredly help your team as we head down the home stretch of the 2013 season. But, to paraphrase Lloyd Christmas (played by Jim Carrey) as he courted Mary Swanson (played by Lauren Holly) in the movie "Dumb and Dumber," I'm just telling you there's a chance.

The criteria identifying our 15 candidates are as follows. Note that the statistics used are post-All-Star break:

• The pitcher must have a minimum of three games started (since the break).
• He must have a K/9 rate greater than 7.0 and/or a K/BB ratio greater than 3.5.
• He is owned in less than one-third of ESPN standard leagues (most are actually below 10 percent ownership).

The primary filters are K/9 and K/BB since that is most representative of the hurler's present skill level. Sorting or filtering by a surface stat such as ERA will mask the recent effectiveness of many of these latent possibilities.

The pitchers below are ordered via descending K/9 rate. The statistics are from July 19 (the first set of games following the All-Star break) through Aug. 21, unless otherwise noted.


Jonathon Niese, New York Mets (13.5 K/9, 5.3 K/BB): Niese has fanned nine hitters in each of his past two starts. For the season, he is still sporting a subpar 4.25 ERA and an even homelier 1.56 WHIP. But since coming off the disabled list on Aug. 11, he has put up Matt Harvey-like numbers, including a 2.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.

Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians (11.6 K/9, 3.7 K/BB): Salazar has assumed the rotation spot of Corey Kluber, one of the season's emergent pitching stars. Beware, however, if you opt to pick up Salazar, that his innings likely will be limited late in the season. But he should be good for at least another two to three starts, and if he maintains his present strikeout rate, he could be very useful. Salazar appears to have a penchant for giving up the long ball, so you'll have to be careful with starting him on the road. But he should be an excellent option for his remaining home starts.

Todd Redmond, Toronto Blue Jays (10.1 K/9, 5.0 K/BB): Trusting any pitcher on an AL East team can be rather daunting, but perhaps noting that the above peripherals are supported by season-long marks of 9.1 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 eases the reticence. Like Salazar, Redmond can get into trouble with homers, but if he can continue to strike out more than a batter an inning and keep free passes to a minimum, he can continue to be effective.

Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres (9.4 K/9, 3.5 K/BB): Ross has the benefit of starting half his games at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, and unlike Salazar and Redmond, he's a ground ball pitcher, so his homers allowed are scant, even on the road. The problem with Ross is he's pitching far better than his career numbers (6.9 K/9, 1.7 K/BB), so the concern is he'll wake up one day and, well, remember that he's Tyson Ross. But he has exhibited those elevated skills over a decent sample size of six starts and 40 1/3 innings, and again, he pitches half his games at Petco Park.

Brad Peacock, Houston Astros (9.3 K/9, 2.5 K/BB): If asked to rank these choices in terms of confidence and not strikeout rate, Peacock would feather toward the bottom. His walk rate over the time frame is 3.7 BB/9, a bit high, and a .174 batting average on balls in play has saved him. Still, in leagues where strikeouts are important, Peacock can lend a wing, er, hand.

Tyler Chatwood, Colorado Rockies (8.2 K/9, 2.8 K/BB): Like Ross, Chatwood's recent stint features a K/9 rate significantly better than his career mark of 5.4. Unlike Ross, Chatwood's home venue does not provide the same protection in the event he returns to his usual levels. However, Chatwood is an extreme ground ball pitcher, which certainly helps. While it's usually best to dedicate spot starts to home games, in this case you can make an exception for Chatwood, considering, like most Rockies pitchers, he has better numbers away from Coors Field.

Zach McAllister, Indians (8.2 K/9, 2.4 K/BB): Even though McAllister's strikeout and walk rates are worthy of inclusion, it's necessary to warn you here that there's an anomaly regarding his home run peripherals. McAllister is a fly ball pitcher but is sporting a miniscule 0.3 HR/9 rate since the All-Star break as a result of a home run per fly ball rate well below the league average of 10 percent. McAllister's luck is bound to run out as his HR/FB regresses to the league norm. This doesn't mean McAllister should be avoided, as his skills still warrant consideration. It's simply a warning not to expect such low home run totals.

Erasmo Ramirez, Seattle Mariners (7.4 K/9, 4.3 K/BB): Ramirez populated many a sleeper list back in March, but he had a rough spring punctuated by a triceps strain, which delayed his 2013 Seattle debut until June. His calling card is inducing ground balls and outstanding control. Since his promotion in June, Ramirez is sporting an unsightly 5.94 ERA, though his xFIP of 4.04 suggests he hasn't pitched as poorly as his ERA indicates. If you can spot Ramirez at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field, you have a good chance at a quality start.


Martin Perez, Texas Rangers (7.4 K/9, 2.7 K/BB): Perez may have the strongest pedigree of anyone on this list, but injuries and a rough 2012 campaign slowed down a promising career. On the other hand, Perez is only 22 years old, which speaks to his success as a teenager. A declining strikeout rate has been the main culprit, but perhaps Perez is finally healthy enough to reverse that trend. That said, like Peacock, Perez is one of the riskier entries on the list since he barely made the K/9 cutoff and would miss the K/BB component.

Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh Pirates (7.2 K/9, 4.3 K/BB): Morton is a classic pitch-to-contact sort who is currently enjoying a spike in strikeouts. Or is it something more? Morton had Tommy John surgery in May 2012. He made his 2013 debut in June and seems to have added a few mph to his fastball. This is not uncommon for post-Tommy John hurlers. What's curious is Morton's control is also vastly improved, as the usual mode of operation is for the velocity to come back while control lags. Helping to mitigate any risk if Morton falls back a bit is that Pittsburgh's defense is excellent and PNC Park is a pitcher's paradise.

J.A. Happ, Blue Jays (7.2 K/9, 2.2 K/BB): Like Perez, Happ barely made the list, but for all he has been through this trying season, he deserves any plaudits he receives. In April, Happ took a line drive off the ear, injuring his knee as he fell to the ground. Then, shortly after courageously battling back to the bigs, his grandfather passed. With respect to his second-half success, Happ has always been able to miss bats; it's just that his control has been spotty. There's no guarantee his improvements persist, but again, all we want is a chance.

Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels (6.7 K/9, 4.3 K/BB): Richards is the first of the final four candidates whose K/9 rate didn't pass, but his K/BB rate merited inclusion. For this quartet, playing matchups is crucial, as their margin of error is minimal. The skill to strike out hitters is the great equalizer. To his credit, Richards possesses the ability to induce a plethora of ground balls, so home runs likely won't be an issue. Angel Stadium is a pitcher-favorable venue, making Richards a viable option for home tilts.

Bruce Chen, Kansas City Royals (6.2 K/9, 3.7 K/BB): Chen is the reason you should force your children or grandchildren to throw left-handed if you aspire to be the parent or grandparent of a major league pitcher. The numbers don't lie; since the break, Chen has been an effective starter, stifling the likes of Boston and Baltimore. Chen is a risk on the road, but at Kauffman Stadium, the southpaw has been quite effective.

Brett Oberholtzer, Astros (6.1 K/9, 3.6 K/BB): Yes, we're scraping the bottom of the barrel now, but in leagues with an active waiver wire, sometimes digging deep is necessary. Of note with Oberholtzer is his minor league numbers suggest he can improve upon his pedestrian strikeout rate without giving back too much in terms of walks. In addition, if you are hesitant to use an Astros pitcher for fear of limited run support, it's worth noting that Houston is in middle of the pack in runs scored since the break.

Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies (5.7 K/9, 4.5 K/BB): Chacin's 1.3 BB/9 is the lowest of anyone on this list, which is fortuitous since his K/9 rate also is the lowest. For his career, Chacin sports a 7.0 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9, so the likelihood of sustaining his present course is slight. Earlier, Brad Peacock and Martin Perez were referred to as risky options; Chacin surpasses both in that department.

Again, the suggestions above come with no assurance of success, but these pitchers have all exhibited promising traits. Before we call it a day, two more points are worth a quick mention:

• The notion of wins was alluded to with Oberholtzer. Consider this brief mathematical exercise. Most teams have about 40 games remaining, or eight starts per pitcher. A typical starter will earn six decisions in those eight games. A pitcher with a final record of 15-10 would thus be projected for 3.2 wins going forward. A 10-15 starter projects for 2.4 wins, the difference being about a single win. We're at the point of the season at which the fickleness of wins is not the only reason we shouldn't focus on attaining them. We can point to a concrete difference of a single projected win as proof positive that the win potential for starters is a remote consideration.

• And finally, the first run of pitchers who met the criteria actually included 17 candidates, but a recent start knocked two off the list. On the flip side, two others already on the list had their ranking improved with their last outing. Together, this highlights the high-risk, high-reward nature of this process.
 

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Bits: Heyward out; Cubs' Castro slumping
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By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

It's really a shame that Atlanta Braves outfielder Jason Heyward had his jaw broken by a Jonathon Niese pitch Wednesday afternoon, because Heyward was playing well, and now his regular season is likely over. Oh, you won't find his name among the top 50 outfielders on the Player Rater for the season, but look for the past 30 days and there he is among the top 10. A top-30 pick in ESPN average live drafts, Heyward was awful in April, needed an emergency appendectomy, didn't hit when he initially returned, then missed more time because of a hamstring injury. And now he's done and should be dropped in all leagues.

Just don't let your final memory of Heyward be of his struggles this season, because there remains a bright future here. He's not likely to crack my top 10 outfielders or overall top 30 for next season, because it's pretty hard to tell if he's a base stealer or not, and that matters. But look what Heyward had done since June 1: .300 average, 11 home runs. And since the All-Star break he was hitting .323 with a .973 OPS and six home runs in 24 starts. As a leadoff hitter, he was exactly what the Braves needed, with a .349 batting average -- tops in baseball with a minimum 50 plate appearances -- and a .417 OBP in the role. Heyward is still a mere 24 years old. It's hard to tell if he will steal 20 bases or two in future seasons, and that alone is enough to move the likes of Carlos Gomez and Starling Marte ahead of him, but don't give up on the potential for 30-homer seasons and .300 batting averages in the future. He'll likely make my overall top 50 next season.

<OFFER>The Braves can afford Heyward's regular-season loss since the NL East division is all but locked up. The internal beneficiary is speedy Jordan Schafer, a lefty hitter with a .315 batting average against right-handed pitching this season and enough speed to matter in deeper fantasy leagues. Frankly, Schafer is outplaying wealthy free-agent flop B.J. Upton, but each is likely to see regular playing time moving forward. Schafer is 11th in batting average among leadoff hitters (minimum 50 plate appearances) this season, and he does take walks. Evan Gattis could play more as well, but that's not really a good thing; as expected, he regressed quickly and in an ugly way after being a fan fave in April, and is hitting .238 with one home run since the All-Star break. Joey Terdoslavich has some pop and plate discipline, and deserves more playing time. The Braves will be fine, and Heyward should return for the playoffs.

Schafer is a reasonable option if you need steals -- he did swipe 27 bases in only 106 games for the Houston Astros in 2012 -- but as noted in Tuesday's blog entry on the Jose Bautista DL stint, there are better options. Man, it hasn't been a good week for injuries. The following are owned in fewer than half of ESPN's standard leagues, but among the top 50 outfielders on the Player Rater for the past 15 days: Nate Schierholtz, Khris Davis, Jon Jay, Charlie Blackmon, Robbie Grossman, Christian Yelich, Matt Joyce, L.J. Hoes, Chris Carter, Darin Ruf, J.B. Shuck, Craig Gentry, Emilio Bonifacio, Corey Dickerson, Gerardo Parra and Jonny Gomes. Of that somewhat motley crew, Schierholtz, Jay and Joyce really stand out to me. Schierholtz has 18 home runs and a .276 batting average. He really should be owned in more, if not all, leagues.

Box-score bits (NL): Overshadowed by the Heyward injury was Niese tossing seven strong innings of one-run ball, fanning nine. Niese was the No. 40 starting pitcher in ESPN ADP, but hasn't pitched like it. However, in three starts since coming off the DL he has fanned 23 hitters in 19 innings. It's not too late for him to help mixed-league owners. … Same with Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez, who slugged his second home run in three games, a three-run blast off Jake Westbrook on Wednesday. Ramirez is also not having a good season, but he was a seventh-round pick in ESPN ADP for a reason. He should be owned in more than 62 percent of leagues. … Yes, the Pittsburgh Pirates leadoff hitter Wednesday was Felix Pie, former tantalizing fantasy prospect. Now 28, Pie replaces Starling Marte, out with a finger injury for hopefully just a few days. Pie stole 38 bases at Triple-A Indianapolis, so that's what he potentially offers NL-only owners if he plays. He scored the lone Bucs run and was caught stealing Wednesday. … Chicago Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro led off Wednesday, just one day after batting eighth. No matter, he's having a miserable season, and he entered play with one hit in 27 at-bats. He singled in five at-bats Wednesday, and remains droppable in mixed leagues.

Box-score bits (AL): Congrats to New York Yankees outfielder Ichiro Suzuki for achieving 4,000 hits between MLB and Japan's Pacific League. Suzuki singled in four at-bats Wednesday and is hitting .274 for the season. He's obviously not what he used to be, but he still runs a bit and doesn't hurt a fantasy team. … Boston Red Sox shortstop Stephen Drew, a lefty hitter, earned the start Wednesday against San Francisco Giants lefty Barry Zito. After Zito was pounded, Drew smacked a three-run homer off lefty Michael Kickham. The story here is that prospect Xander Bogaerts didn't start. He's becoming popular in standard leagues, but don't expect much. … Red Sox lefty Felix Doubront won his ninth game, tossing eight innings of one-run ball. Doubront had pitched poorly of late, and his WHIP remains way too high for standard formats, but he's a decent strikeout source. … Seattle Mariners outfielder Michael Morse homered in his first at-bat Wednesday, breaking an 0-for-16 string over the past week. Morse is on ESPN's most-dropped list, and for good reason, but remember that he's a streaky power hitter, and be ready to add him if he gets hot.
 

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Bullpen Report: Brothers 'the man' again
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Eric Karabell

Colorado Rockies closer Rafael Betancourt probably deserved a better fate this week in Philadelphia, but now it's reasonable to ask if Thursday night was the last time we'll see the Venezuelan right-hander pitch. Betancourt blew the save in Wednesday's game, then again Thursday before succumbing to elbow pain, which could be serious enough to warrant Tommy John surgery and end his career. Betancourt is, after all, 38 years old. It's not official yet, so deep leaguers should wait a bit longer before parting ways, but everyone should see if lefty Rex Brothers is available, for this is a dominant reliever whose opportunity appears to have returned.

Brothers leads all relief pitchers in Wins Above Replacement this season, and when Betancourt was out recently following an appendectomy, the former first-round pick filled in quite ably. He has 11 saves on the season, and while he's probably a bit fortunate to have a 1.51 ERA (his xFIP is 3.53), this is a potential top-10 fantasy closer with strikeout potential who is available in more than 40 percent of ESPN standard leagues. Act now, and take note in dynasty formats as well, because Brothers should be the guy for years to come.

<OFFER>Give Betancourt credit for hanging around long enough to become a good closer. He's fifth on the Rockies' career list in saves and boasts a 3.02 ERA over 235 2/3 innings for the organization, with many coming at Coors Field. However, after losing Thursday's game he told reporters of how the pain in his throwing elbow was completely different than what he's faced before. Betancourt admitted he pitched through pain Wednesday as well; Betancourt's ERA was 2.93 a few days ago, and it's clear he was manager Walt Weiss' choice to close when healthy. Now injury has gotten in the way again, and Brothers is the one to own. Don't wait for official word on Betancourt before acting.

Prospect talk: I'm occasionally asked about prospects in the minors and their chances of closing after a September call-up. It rarely works that way. There are several young closers in the minors with saves in their eventual future -- Heath Hembree of the San Francisco Giants is an obvious one -- but so many of the save leaders are old, recycled arms, like Jairo Asencio and Chris Hatcher, the respective save leaders in the International and Pacific Coast Leagues, respectively. So for the most part, we have no prospects for you to track! Hembree, 24, should at least be called up, but Giants closer Sergio Romo's job is pretty safe, and he's signed for another season.

NL talk: The last time Atlanta Braves stud Craig Kimbrel allowed a run was July 4. Seriously? … Cincinnati Reds closer Aroldis Chapman was summoned for a six-out save Wednesday, and while that's how he should be used on occasion, it's probably a one-time thing. However, with Jonathan Broxton done for the season, it's interesting that right-hander Sam LeCure, who saved Thursday's game, is next in line. It was his first career save. … I'm a bit surprised Tyler Clippard hasn't started getting save chances for the Washington Nationals with Rafael Soriano struggling. Soriano has allowed seven runs in nine August innings. Clippard hasn't exactly had a spotless August himself, and his strikeout rate is down, but still, Soriano's past six outings have not been clean, with 11 hits and seven runs in 5 1/3 innings. … Still no word of New York Mets closer Bobby Parnell (neck) coming back this season, so yeah, LaTroy Hawkins is a guy to add. … Jim Henderson has had a terrific August. Remember when he was setting up Francisco Rodriguez? Good times. … I've been saying to add St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Trevor Rosenthal all season, and I've basically touted him as a future Hall of Famer (OK, perhaps not that much), but with incumbent closer Edward Mujica receiving acupuncture treatment for a shoulder injury, Rosenthal will likely have some save chances in September, and probably before that. … J.J. Putz has definitely been better than Brad Ziegler this month, but Arizona Diamondbacks manager Kirk Gibson doesn't seem close to making a change. … Jonathan Papelbon has as many saves as Nationals starter Dan Haren since the All-Star break, and only one more than you and me.

AL talk: For those who claim you can't find saves on the waiver wire, check out what Seattle Mariners right-hander Danny Farquhar has done. Nobody has more saves in August than this guy, and his 15 strikeouts in 9 1/3 innings are right there with the leaders. Tom Wilhelmsen, incidentally, has permitted seven runs in 7 2/3 innings at Triple-A Tacoma. … Since blowing three consecutive save chances earlier in the month, New York Yankees right-hander Mariano Rivera has been back to normal. Even if the Yankees fall out of the race, don't look for Rivera to cede save chances regularly to David Robertson. … One might think Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Fernando Rodney deserves to lose the closing role, but he has allowed a run in only one of his past 11 games, and he hasn't allowed a home run since May. Feel free to cut Joel Peralta in deep leagues. … And then there's Jim Johnson of the Baltimore Orioles. I still don't think he has completely lost the closer role. Right-hander Tommy Hunter saved Wednesday's game. Johnson hasn't seen much work of late, but look for him to get a save chance soon. … As for the Astros, they have four saves this month. Right-hander Josh Fields has two of them, Chia-Jen Lo has one and lefty Kevin Chapman the other. I think Lo is the one to own, but this is the Astros. The team might get only five saves the rest of the season.
 

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Brewers rookies, top 10 prospects

By Jim Callis | Baseball America

To put it bluntly, this hasn't been the best month for the Milwaukee Brewers. They're headed for their worst record since 2004, Ryan Braun is suspended and issuing seemingly insincere apologies, and Carlos Gomez's breakout season has been interrupted by a sprained knee.

With Braun and Gomez sidelined, the Brewers' two best hitters in August have been a pair of rookies: second baseman Scooter Gennett and outfielder Khris Davis.

Gennett was a 16th-round pick out of a Florida high school in 2009, though his draft status was more reflective of his commitment to Florida State than his talent. Signed for $260,000, he has hit .297/.337/.409 in the minors. He got his first big league opportunity when Milwaukee called him up in June to platoon with a slumping Rickie Weeks, and he returned at the end of July when Weeks sustained a season-ending hamstring injury.

The 23-year-old Gennett is batting .312/.360/.516 in the majors, with four homers, 12 RBIs and no steals in 34 games. He has hit safely in all 13 of his big league starts this month. He excels at making line-drive contact, though that may be the extent of his fantasy contributions. The 5-foot-10, 180-pounder has below-average power and merely average speed, so he's not going to provide a lot of homers or steals. Gennett has a realistic ceiling as a .280/.330/.400 hitter, which would make him a useful fantasy player, but not a star.

Davis also was a product of the 2009 draft, signing for $125,000 as a seventh-round pick from Cal State Fullerton. He batted .288/.392/.506 with 69 homers in 415 minor league games, and he has been even better (albeit with a small sample size) since helping replace the suspended Braun. Davis is hitting .324/.395/.648 with six homers and 13 RBIs in 71 at-bats.

Davis, 25, does have enough raw power to hit 20 or so homers per year in the majors, though he does strike out frequently and doesn't project to hit for a high average. He's a below-average runner and a serviceable defender, so most of his value will come from his power. How much playing time he'll get in 2014 once Braun returns remains in question, but Davis certainly is helping his cause.

And with that, here's our latest top 10 fantasy prospects list, based solely on their ability to help fantasy teams in 2013:


[h=3]1. Carlos Martinez, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: 5)[/h]
Season totals: 5-3 record, 2.66 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 54 K's in 61 IP (12 starts) at Triple-A Memphis; 1-0 record, 2.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9 K's in 11 2/3 IP (three starts) at Double-A Springfield.
Update: After winning three of his previous four starts, Martinez had his worst Triple-A outing of the year on Sunday. He allowed 10 baserunners (four hits, three walks, three hit batsmen) and five runs in four innings, though he did strike out six batters.
Prognosis: The Cardinals are just one game out of the National League Central lead, no thanks to Jake Westbrook, who has struggled since coming off the disabled list with elbow problems. It's past time for the Cardinals to pull the plug on Westbrook, who may miss his Monday start anyway after coming down with a stiff back. With Michael Wacha spending the past two weeks in the team's bullpen, Martinez is St. Louis' best option to replace Westbrook.

[h=3]2. Nick Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers (Last week's rank: 3)[/h]
Season totals: .274/.345/.440, 15 HR, 68 RBIs, 4 SB in 125 games at Triple-A Toledo.
Update: Castellanos has homered twice in the past week, boosting his career-high total to 15, which nearly matches the 17 homers he hit in his first two full pro seasons combined. There were some quibbles about his power and plate discipline before this year, but he also has established a new career best with 53 walks.
Prognosis: The Tigers can say that Castellanos still has defensive work to do as the former third baseman transitions to the outfield, but they still should hand their left-field job to him. They look like the strongest team in the American League, and they could be even stronger if they bagged their ineffective left-field platoon of Andy Dirks and Matt Tuiasosopo in favor of Castellanos.

[h=3]3. Tyler Skaggs, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week's rank: 4)[/h]
Season totals: 6-9 record, 4.42 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 100 K's in 93 2/3 IP (17 games, 15 starts) at Triple-A Reno; 0-0 record, 4.76 ERA, 2.29 WHIP, 8 K's in 5 2/3 IP (one start) at high Class A Visalia.
Update: Skaggs wasn't at his sharpest, but he recorded his 10th quality start in 15 Triple-A outings on Tuesday. He allowed three runs (two earned) on seven hits and three walks in six innings, fanning just two.
Prognosis: The Diamondbacks have welcomed Trevor Cahill back from the disabled list, but Brandon McCarthy has been terrible since returning earlier in the month, and Randall Delgado has struggled as well. Skaggs should get the sixth promotion of his season in the near future.

[h=3]4. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: 6)[/h]
Season totals: .261/.313/.350, 6 HR, 40 RBIs, 73 SB in 115 games at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: Hamilton swiped four bases in his past six games, boosting his season total to 73. That said, he'll probably have to settle for second place in the minors rather than winning his third consecutive stolen base title; he's nine behind Chicago White Sox second baseman Micah Johnson.
Prognosis: Though Hamilton has had a disappointing season at the plate, Reds manager Dusty Baker suggested he could be used as more than just a pinch runner if he gets a September call-up. Hamilton wouldn't need a ton of playing time to reach double-digit steals in his first month in the majors.


[h=3]5. Henry Urrutia, OF, Baltimore Orioles (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: .355/.395/.474, 1 HR, 7 RBIs, 0 SB in 19 games at Triple-A Norfolk; .365/.433/.550, 7 HR, 44 RBIs, 1 SB in 52 games at Double-A Bowie.
Update: Urrutia spent four weeks with the Orioles, hitting .269/.269/.308 in 52 at-bats (mostly at DH) before they sent him down late last week. He went 7-for-20 (.350) with a homer in his first five games back at Norfolk, and his combined .362 batting average would top the minors if he had enough plate appearances to qualify.
Prognosis: Baltimore is still battling for a playoff spot and remains unsettled at DH, so Urrutia should be back in September. He could get another 50 or so at-bats in the final month.

[h=3]6. George Springer, OF, Houston Astros (Last week's rank: 9)[/h]
Season totals: .304/.429/.647, 17 HR, 47 RBIs, 18 SB in 53 games at Triple-A Oklahoma City; .297/.399/.579, 19 HR, 55 RBIs, 23 SB in 73 games at Double-A Corpus Christi.
Update: No minor leaguer has performed better in 2013 than Springer. He has hit three more homers and stolen three more bases in the past week, giving him 36 long balls and 41 swipes for the season. If he can go deep four times in his remaining 11 games, he'll be the first 40-40 player in the modern era of the minors, which began in 1962.
Prognosis: Not only is Springer the Astros' center fielder of the future, he's clearly better than any of their current center-field options. However, Houston GM Jeff Luhnow has said Springer will remain at Oklahoma City at least through the Pacific Coast League playoffs. Springer isn't guaranteed a September call-up because the Astros currently don't have to protect him on their 40-man roster this offseason. But he could help fantasy clubs if he gets the chance.

[h=3]7. Archie Bradley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week's rank: 8)[/h]
Season totals: 10-5 record, 2.07 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 112 K's in 113 IP (19 starts) at Double-A Mobile; 2-0 record, 1.26 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 43 K's in 28 2/3 IP (five starts) at high Class A Visalia.
Update: Bradley hasn't given up more than two runs in any of his past six Double-A starts and earned a win for the fourth straight outing Tuesday. He now ranks fourth in the minors in strikeouts (155 in 141 2/3 innings) and fifth in ERA (1.91).
Prognosis: As mentioned above, the Diamondbacks need some rotation help. They've given Skaggs several shots to contribute, so the next opportunity could go to Bradley (and deservedly so) if they're willing to add him to their 40-man roster ahead of schedule.

[h=3]8. Kevin Gausman, SP, Baltimore Orioles (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: 1-2 record, 4.41 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 29 K's in 32 2/3 IP (seven games, six starts) at Triple-A Norfolk; 2-4 record, 3.11 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 49 K's in 46 1/3 IP (eight starts) at Double-A Bowie.
Update: After missing a start with a tired arm, Gausman returned Monday with five shutout innings to earn his first Triple-A victory. He allowed three hits and no walks while striking out seven.
Prognosis: Gausman scuffled in his first two big league stints earlier this year (6.21 ERA, 1.47 WHIP), but he'll be back up in September as the Orioles make a push for the playoffs. Baltimore may use him out of the bullpen, though he could be asked to bolster a rotation that has gone 6-6 with a 4.02 ERA in August.

[h=3]9. Erik Johnson, SP, Chicago White Sox (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: 3-1 record, 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 44 K's in 45 1/3 IP (eight starts) at Triple-A Charlotte; 8-2 record, 2.23 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 74 K's in 84 2/3 IP (14 starts) at Double-A Birmingham.
Update: Johnson missed much of July because of a strained groin but has dominated in August. He threw eight shutout innings Monday at Triple-A and now has a 2-1 record, 1.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 23 strikeouts in 27 innings this month.
Prognosis: He doesn't get much hype, but Johnson is the White Sox's best pitching prospect. His fastball and slider are potential plus pitches, and he has a ceiling as a No. 3 starter. He should be in Chicago's 2014 rotation, and though the club doesn't have to put Johnson on the 40-man roster this offseason, it still might let him make his big league debut in September.

[h=3]10. Mike Olt, 3B, Chicago Cubs (Last week's rank: 10)[/h]
Season totals: .121/.194/.222, 2 HR, 4 RBIs, 0 SB in 28 games at Triple-A Iowa; .213/.317/.422, 11 HR, 32 RBIs, 0 SB in 65 games at Triple-A Round Rock; .333/.333/.750, 1 HR, 2 RBIs, 0 SB in three games at Double-A Frisco.
Update: Olt went 2-for-20 (.100) last week as he continues to falter since the Cubs acquired him from the Texas Rangers in the Matt Garza trade. He struggled in the Rangers' system as well, battling vision problems at the start of the season that may have resulted from getting beaned in the Dominican Winter League.
Prognosis: Olt's numbers are downright cringe-worthy … so why is he on this list? Well, first of all, a slew of recent call-ups has left the remaining crop of 2013 fantasy prospects in the minors quite thin, and also because he's already on Chicago's 40-man roster and thus is likely to get a look in September. Donnie Murphy has hit eight (!) homers already this month while playing third base for the Cubbies, however, so Olt might not get a lot of playing time.

Called up (with last week's rank): Kolten Wong, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals (1); Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B, Boston Red Sox (2); Travis d'Arnaud, C, New York Mets (7).
 

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Bits: Cubs' Murphy continues to surprise
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Eric Karabell

Five players enter Friday having hit eight home runs in August. Chances are, even the most casual baseball fans are well aware of four of them: Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera, Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis, Atlanta Braves outfielder Justin Upton and New York Yankees outfielder Alfonso Soriano. And the fifth guy? Well, he's a longtime journeyman infielder with a career .217 batting average, modest power and poor plate discipline. Welcome to fantasy relevance, Chicago Cubs third baseman Donnie Murphy.

On Thursday, Murphy smacked a game-tying home run in the ninth inning off Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg, sending the game into extra innings and making Strasburg's frustrated owners sad. It was Murphy's fourth home run since Monday, and while it's still a small sample size of 58 at-bats, his .328 batting average is noteworthy. It's going to drop a lot soon, because it's tough to hit for average when you strike out a quarter of the time and don't draw walks, and a .482 mark in isolated power is just ridiculous, even though Murphy does have some pop.

<OFFER>To think, there was little reason to expect Murphy would even get a chance to play in the majors this season. He hit .185 and .216 in brief playing time for the Miami Marlins the past two seasons, and in the minors he wasn't exactly breaking records; Murphy hit .265 for Triple-A Iowa this season with 12 home runs in 89 games. However, incumbent Cubs third baseman Luis Valbuena strained his oblique, prospect Mike Olt hasn't hit at all at Iowa -- Murphy wasn't going to take his at-bats -- and that opened the door. Murphy's home run/fly ball rate this month is unsustainable (36.4 percent), but he's going to keep playing, so even if he hits .250 in September, another seven or eight home runs the rest of the way isn't outrageous.

By the way, there are other surprise options hitting for power in August who are readily available in ESPN standard leagues. Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Darin Ruf has seven blasts this month, a year after bashing 38 home runs at Double-A Reading. He shouldn't be a starting outfielder for the team next year, but if he is, I could see 25 home runs. San Diego Padres second baseman Jedd Gyorko has hit six home runs in August, though that's all he's doing. In fact, he has scored just seven runs! Longtime Seattle Mariners first base tease Justin Smoak has five home runs, and for you deep-league owners, Khris Davis, Brett Wallace and Juan Francisco have value if you covet power.

Box score bits (NL): San Francisco Giants right-hander Matt Cain left his Thursday outing prematurely when a Gaby Sanchez line drive struck his pitching arm. Cain was pitching poorly to start with, but the injury does not appear serious. For all the whining I've heard about Cain this year, his 1.14 WHIP is just outside the top 20 among all qualified starting pitchers, and better than Zack Greinke's, Cole Hamels', Mat Latos' and Shelby Miller's. … Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Adam Eaton had two hits and a run scored Thursday, and is hitting .313 over the past two weeks, but he still hasn't stolen a base in 32 games. At this point, we shouldn't expect that he will. … More bad news for the Braves in the wake of losing outfielder Jason Heyward on Wednesday: Right-hander Brandon Beachy is scheduled to meet with the well-known Dr. James Andrews, who will examine the pitcher's sore elbow. Beachy was pitching better than his ERA noted, with 23 strikeouts and four walks, but good news or not from Dr. Andrews, we shouldn't expect to see him pitching in the bigs anytime soon. … Cubs outfielder Brian Bogusevic had double digits in home runs and stolen bases in the minors. His home run Thursday was his second in three days. Those in deep leagues should take note. … The Giants continue to use Brett Pill in left field, and he had three hits Thursday. At least they're not sitting Brandon Belt anymore. With Andres Torres on the DL for perhaps the rest of the season, Pill could get a longer look. He reminds me of Philly's Ruf, another first baseman who shouldn't be anywhere near the outfield but has intriguing power if playing often. … St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Joe Kelly beat the Braves on Thursday, and over the past two months, he's 5-0 with a 2.01 ERA. Oh, those amazing Cardinals!

Box score bits (AL): The Tampa Bay Rays picked up outfielders Delmon Young and David DeJesus on Thursday, though it's hard to see how there's much fantasy value there. That likely spells bad news if you spent a buck in your AL-only league on Jason Bourgeois, though. … Yankees lefty Andy Pettitte got back on track against the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday, allowing one run in six innings. Pettitte had permitted 11 runs (eight earned) in 13 2/3 August innings before Thursday. Pettitte isn't totally safe to trust again, but because his next outing is in Toronto against the same last-place Jays, go for it. … Those who thought Minnesota Twins lefty Andrew Albers was safe when his first two big league starts yielded 17 1/3 shutout innings have certainly seen the quick regression since. Albers, a 27-year-old with average stuff, allowed nine hits and five runs in 5 2/3 innings Thursday. … More cheap power in Chicago: White Sox third baseman Conor Gillaspie hit his 11th homer late Thursday. He's not Donnie Murphy, but he's 25 and can draw walks. … Those owners who drafted and eventually gave up on Emilio Bonifacio won't like this: In eight games for the Kansas City Royals, he has stolen six bases. We might never know why he didn't run much in Toronto, but that's cheap speed on your waiver wire.
 

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Bits: Brewers sleepers emerging; Tulo sits
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The Milwaukee Brewers certainly aren't playoff-bound, but it hasn't stopped several of their more unheralded players from becoming interesting in fantasy baseball. Right-hander Marco Estrada dominated the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday, allowing one hit over seven shutout innings and striking out nine, while outfielder Khris Davis and second baseman Scooter Gennett made important contributions as the Brewers took the weekend series.

Estrada has had quite the August so far, posting a 1.87 ERA over four starts and striking out 21 in 24 innings. He was a popular deep-league sleeper this season after finishing 2012 with a 3.64 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 143 strikeouts in 138 1/3 innings, but he was terrible in April and likely dumped in most leagues. His ERA at the All-Star break was 5.32, then he missed July with back and hamstring injuries. He's clearly fine now, though. Estrada has been someone worth buying for weeks, with an xFIP a full run below his ERA and a track record for accruing strikeouts. He's a fly ball pitcher who has been a bit unlucky in terms of home runs allowed, and after beating the Reds, he shouldn't be overwhelmed by the Los Angeles Angels or Chicago Cubs his next few outings. Consider him a spot starter in 10- and 12-team leagues and a worthy add in 14-team formats.

<OFFER>Davis is the most added player in ESPN standard leagues, as the modest power he exhibited in the minor leagues has so far translated well in the big leagues. Davis cracked a pair of two-run home runs Friday night and has hit .392 with six home runs in August, after hitting .255 with 13 home runs in 69 games for Triple-A Nashville. OK, so he's due for some regression, but he has decent plate discipline and Ryan Braun isn't coming back anytime soon to take his job, so add Davis while he's hot.

I think some people are drawn to Gennett because they want to add a guy named Scooter. It's fun, right? Well, he's not a speed demon, despite the moniker, but he does have some pop in his bat. Gennett homered Friday and has five blasts in his first 100 at-bats with the big club, with a .317 batting average (.415 in August). He won't continue to hit like this for long, but he could stick as the leadoff hitter and run a bit, and hey, what's your team's middle infielder doing? Gennett certainly isn't overwhelmed by big league pitching, and he has close to the same Player Rater value as fellow Brewer Jean Segura over the past month.

Box score bits (NL): Awesome Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki missed Sunday's game because of oblique soreness. Uh oh. For now, don't assume a DL stint is pending, but this is not a durable player, either. … Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Roy Halladay returned after shoulder surgery and was reasonably effective against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday, allowing two runs and four hits over six innings. Halladay's velocity remains low, however, so be careful about activating him for his next outing at Wrigley Field. … Reds lefty Tony Cingrani was placed on the disabled list Sunday with lower back pain, and Greg Reynolds replaced him. You don't want Reynolds. Cingrani doesn't figure to miss much time, and he should return before colleague Johnny Cueto, so keep him around for the head-to-head playoffs. … New York Mets catcher Travis d'Arnaud blasted his first big league home run Sunday, a two-run shot off Detroit Tigers right-hander Rick Porcello. The rookie isn't getting many hits, but given his plate discipline, the best is yet to come, though I wouldn't call him a top-10 catcher the rest of the way. … Those owning Mets closer LaTroy Hawkins can't be pleased by Sunday's outing in a non-save situation; he permitted five runs and retired just one hitter. Still, he's the saves guy there. … Miami Marlins outfielder Justin Ruggiano, who recently ended an 0-for-42 skid, homered and stole a base Sunday. It's a shame Ruggiano struggled so much in July; he now has 15 home runs and 13 steals. Only 10 big leaguers have more of each. … San Francisco Giants right-hander Ryan Vogelsong allowed a mere two singles over eight shutout innings in beating the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday. Vogelsong has ghastly season numbers, but three of his four outings since coming off the DL for a broken hand have been good. He can help in deeper formats.

Box score bits (AL): Cleveland Indians lefty Scott Kazmir rebounded from two rough outings with six innings of one-run ball against the Minnesota Twins on Sunday. Kazmir struck out eight. Perhaps the extra rest was all he needed. Still, he does not come recommended. … Oakland Athletics third baseman Josh Donaldson delivered the rare combo meal (for him) of a home run and a steal Sunday, a first for him. Donaldson, who hadn't stolen a base since April, seems back on track after slumping the first half of August; he has 10 RBIs in his past eight games. … A's outfielder Josh Reddick says it's 50-50 that he might need a DL stint for a wrist problem that forced him to leave Sunday's game. Daric Barton could see time at first base, with Brandon Moss moving to right field, but watch for Nate Freiman. He has pop and can take a walk, though he hasn't played much in August. … Chicago White Sox lefty John Danks beat the Texas Rangers on Sunday, allowing two runs over six innings. Earlier in the week, Danks beat the Kansas City Royals. In his first 16 starts, he won twice. Danks isn't a top-60 starting pitcher, but his ERA was a solid 3.14 in six August starts. … Houston Astros right-hander Chia-Jen Lo blew his second save Sunday, allowing a hit and three walks against the Toronto Blue Jays. The situation remains fluid, but look for Josh Fields to get a save chance soon. Really, fantasy owners should ignore the Houston bullpen.
 

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[h=1]Position eligibility notes for 2014[/h][h=3]Several key players are in line to lose qualification, which affects their value[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com


Tuesday's San Diego Padres-Arizona Diamondbacks game, which resulted in a 10-9 Diamondbacks win, might have been a baseball scorekeeper's nightmare … but a fantasy owner probably loved it.

Eight of the Padres' 13 active hitters appeared at multiple positions, there were more than a dozen defensive switches or substitutions, 38 percent of the team's active hitters (5 of 13) played third base, and two players, Jedd Gyorko and Jesus Guzman, swapped spots on at least three different occasions. In fact, depending upon your source -- whether it's ESPN, Baseball-Reference.com or MLB.com -- Gyorko and Guzman rotated between second and third base as many as five times.


If you're a fantasy owner, you might be thinking, "Boy, wouldn't it be nice if each of those position changes counted as an individual game appearance?" In that event, it would have given Gyorko 15 appearances at third base -- he actually has 13 -- and Guzman five at third base and three at second (he has three and one, respectively). But even crediting the two with a lone appearance at either spot, plus Yonder Alonso getting his first appearance in the outfield, is representative of the fact that the 2013 Padres, skippered by the always-creative Bud Black, believe in position flexibility.

That's a critical angle in fantasy baseball, position flexibility, as player valuation often hinges upon where you can use certain players. This is why you heard Edwin Encarnacion's owners shriek with glee when, on June 26, the Toronto Blue Jays slugger made his 10th appearance at third base to acquire eligibility there for the remainder of 2013. It's also why Victor Martinez's keeper-league owners might have inched closer to the edges of their seats when the 34-year-old designated hitter made a pair of appearances at his old position of catcher during his Detroit Tigers' three-game trip to Citi Field this past weekend.

In a week in which Martinez offered those eager individuals hope of acquiring 2014 eligibility at an on-field position, while the Padres played positional pingpong, it seems fitting to address the topic of position eligibility, both for the remainder of this season as well as how things set up for 2014.

What might third base eligibility mean for Encarnacion, or catcher eligibility mean for Martinez? Consider the chart below, which measures the major league averages from each of the eligible positions in traditional fantasy baseball leagues. Statistics are only counted when the player was actually playing the listed position; it is not the total of all players who qualify there in fantasy.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
Position<CENTER>AVG</CENTER><CENTER>OBP</CENTER><CENTER>SLG</CENTER><CENTER>K%</CENTER><CENTER>BB%</CENTER><CENTER>HR%</CENTER><CENTER>wOBA</CENTER>
C (Catcher).247.314.39319.98.23.0.308
1B (First base).260.336.43421.19.73.9.333
2B (Second base).262.322.38816.37.32.2.310
3B (Third base).260.324.41318.28.03.2.320
SS (Shortstop).254.307.37016.66.61.9.295
OF (Outfield).263.327.41819.77.93.0.324
DH (Designated hitter).248.325.41020.69.73.5.320

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>



One note: Keep in mind that those DH numbers, which are seemingly competitive in the power departments (SLG, HR% and wOBA), resulted from a considerably smaller sample of plate appearances, 8,292 as a whole, compared to, say, 16,740 from first basemen. Many of these players appear in fantasy lineups at on-field positions, so don't be dazzled by those numbers and think that 2014 DH-only eligibility would be a good thing for, say, Billy Butler.

Judging from the chart, however, it's clear that shortstop, second base and catcher are the three most attractive positions at which to qualify your hitter, with third base possessing a small advantage over outfield and first base easily the most potent of the seven fantasy baseball positions. What might surprise you is how poor the pool of shortstops has been, though that's a tune we've sung all season.

With those positional league averages in mind, let's take a look at some prominent hitters' prospective position eligibility for the rest of 2013, as well as 2014.

[h=3]Notable dual-position repeats for 2014[/h]
These players entered 2013 with dual position eligibility and have earned the same eligibility for 2014. They are listed in descending order of Player Rater standing.
Allen Craig (1B/OF): Thank Matt Adams for this one, as the St. Louis Cardinals possessing a quality backup first baseman has freed them up to use Craig in the outfield to maximize their lineup flexibility.
Mark Trumbo (1B/OF): Adding third base eligibility is a long shot; he has made only one appearance of two innings there all year.
Nick Swisher (1B/OF): He has barely recaptured his outfield eligibility, with 20 games played there.
Michael Young (3B/1B)
Ryan Doumit (C/OF)

[h=3]Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes[/h]These players either entered 2013 with dual position eligibility or picked it up in-season, but could lose one or more of those spots in 2014. Again, they are listed in descending order of Player Rater standing.
Chris Davis -- currently OF/1B, 1B-only for 2014: He hasn't made a single appearance in the outfield all season, but his owners aren't going to complain. He'll enter 2014 a prime-age 28, he has appeared in 129 of 130 Baltimore Orioles games, and he's the No. 3 hitter on our Player Rater.


Edwin Encarnacion -- currently 1B/3B, 1B-only for 2014: He has remained stuck on those aforementioned 10 appearances at third base since June, but that might be enough to qualify him in some leagues. Even if he falls short of eligibility in ESPN leagues, he'd enter 2014 with the same eligibility he did in 2013, and despite that, he was the No. 25 hitter selected on average this spring.
Michael Cuddyer -- currently OF/1B, OF-only for 2014: Don't panic yet, as Cuddyer has made 14 appearances at first base this season, including eight (and six starts) at the position in the Colorado Rockies' 38 games since the All-Star break. At his second-half pace of appearances, Cuddyer would make six more appearances at first, just enough to qualify him there.

Matt Carpenter -- currently 1B/2B/3B/OF, 2B/3B for 2014: In leagues with liberal qualification rules, Carpenter could also qualify at first base (one game) or in the outfield (two) again, but even with just second and third base qualification, his fantasy value is maximized. It'll be interesting to see how the Cardinals address their middle-infield defensive deficiencies over the winter; there's an outstanding chance Kolten Wong will take over at second base, the team will acquire a shortstop and Carpenter will find himself the everyday third baseman in 2014.
Hanley Ramirez -- currently 3B/SS, SS-only for 2014: Considering how poor the Los Angeles Dodgers' third basemen have been this season -- a combined .243/.308/.343 triple-slash rates and a 25th-ranked .286 wOBA -- it's somewhat surprising that Ramirez hasn't made a single appearance there. But he's much more attractive in fantasy baseball at shortstop anyway.

Martin Prado -- currently OF/2B/3B, 2B/3B for 2014: He's another player with an outstanding chance at repeating his eligibility, as he has made 18 appearances in the outfield, and the Arizona Diamondbacks' decision Tuesday to designate Jason Kubel for assignment only enhances Prado's prospects of more time in left field. Prado has also made one appearance at shortstop.

Joe Mauer -- currently C/1B, C-only for 2014: The concussion that currently has him on the seven-day disabled list causes a curious debate. Could Mauer miss too much time to boost his current total of eight appearances at first base, and if he does return soon enough and the team trades Justin Morneau in the next three days, might the Minnesota Twins then use Mauer exclusively at first base? The smart money is on Mauer falling short, but it probably doesn't matter, since he's considerably more valuable in fantasy as a backstop anyway.

Buster Posey -- currently C/1B, C-only for 2014: Not that first base eligibility matters much for Posey, a considerably more valuable fantasy asset behind the plate, but he has 18 appearances at first base and stands an excellent chance at picking up two more games there.



Ben Zobrist -- currently OF/2B/SS, 2B/OF for 2014: Shortstop eligibility -- his was one of the more intriguing eligibility notes entering 2013 -- is what's in debate the remainder of this year. He has only 12 appearances at the position and might fall short of recapturing that eligibility for 2014. A Yunel Escobar injury could be Zobrist's only chance.

Chris Johnson -- currently 3B/1B, 3B-only for 2014: He has 11 appearances at first base, most of those accrued when Freddie Freeman was on the disabled list earlier in the year, but Freeman's outstanding performance since has assured that Johnson might not make another appearance there this year.

Billy Butler -- currently 1B/DH, DH-only for 2014: As noted above, Butler's might be the most distressing position eligibility losses entering 2014. Who wants a designated hitter-only player coming off a down year by his standards? Butler has made six appearances at first base, five of them in National League parks, but his Kansas City Royals are done with interleague play and aren't about to bench Eric Hosmer, a .313/.359/.505 hitter since the beginning of June.

Victor Martinez -- currently C/1B/DH, DH-only for 2014: His is another race against time, as he has 10 appearances at first base plus the aforementioned two at catcher, and his Detroit Tigers have Prince Fielder at first and only three games left in National League venues during which Martinez might factor in at catcher … and be aware that they're the team's final three regular season games, at which point the Tigers might have already locked in their playoff seed and won't want to risk losing their postseason DH to an injury. First base eligibility is a possibility -- he has four appearances there in 37 Tigers games since the All-Star break -- but the odds are good that Martinez will be a 35-year-old, DH-only player come 2014 draft day, and therefore a much less attractive pick.
Mike Napoli -- currently C/1B, 1B-only for 2014: You were warned. The Boston Red Sox signed Napoli to be their starting first baseman, and start only at first base he has. In fact, he hasn't played catcher a single time all year.

Brandon Moss -- currently 1B/OF, 1B-only for 2014: He might have the best odds of anyone not currently qualified for repeat eligibility to recapture it; he has made back-to-back starts in right field since Josh Reddick went on the DL, giving him 16 games in the outfield for the season. Here's an oddity: Moss has also made two appearances at third base.

Carlos Santana -- currently C/1B, C-only for 2014: OK, OK, Santana's odds are greater, but I'm assuming he's going to play the one additional game (he has played 19) at first base to qualify there again for 2014. It would be shocking if he didn't, considering how creative the Cleveland Indians are getting his potent bat in the lineup either there or at DH (30 games).

Brian Dozier -- currently SS/2B, 2B-only for 2014: He entered this season eligible only at shortstop, but he has played nothing but second base for the Twins since being promoted. He'd be slightly more attractive as a shortstop, but the key is he'll remain middle infield-eligible.

Kelly Johnson -- currently 2B/3B/OF, OF-only for 2014: He has made 15 appearances at third base and 13 at second base, giving him a chance at recapturing his 2013 eligibility, and he has three games played at first base as well. Picking up that infield eligibility is key for a player like Johnson in deep-mixed or AL-only leagues, and it might come down to whether the Tampa Bay Rays choose to rest either Zobrist or Evan Longoria if they clinch a playoff spot early.


Todd Frazier -- currently 3B/1B, 3B-only for 2014: Frazier's owners might not recall why he was able to qualify at first base last season; Joey Votto's completely healthy year is the precise reason that Frazier hasn't made a single appearance at first in 2013. Frazier has played two games in the outfield, but he's almost guaranteed to qualify only at third.

Mike Aviles -- currently SS/2B/3B, 3B/SS for 2014: He picked up second base eligibility in-season with 12 appearances at second base, but that's not going to be enough for him to earn it entering 2014. Aviles has also played five games in the outfield.

Marco Scutaro -- currently 2B/SS, 2B-only for 2014: He was fortunate to pick up shortstop eligibility last season, getting to fill in for the injured Troy Tulowitzki before the Rockies traded him to the San Francisco Giants, but just as was the case following that 2012 trade, the Giants haven't used him for a single inning at shortstop this season.

Jedd Gyorko -- currently 2B/3B, 2B-only for 2014: Bud Black's creativity has a bearing upon Gyorko's prospects at recapturing dual eligibility; Gyorko has 13 games played at third base, as mentioned above. One problem: It was Gyorko's first appearance there since April 16, when he was filling in at the position for the injured Chase Headley. Don't count on it.

Other changes of note …

Jeff Baker -- currently OF/1B, OF-only for 2014: He has played 17 games at first base, nine at third base and one at second base.
Lance Berkman -- currently 1B/DH, DH-only for 2014: He has played only four games at first base.
Alberto Callaspo -- currently 3B/2B, 3B-only for 2014: He has played 13 games at second base.
Yan Gomes -- currently 1B/C, C-only for 2014: He has played only one game at first base.
Junior Lake -- currently SS/OF, OF-only for 2014: He hasn't played anywhere other than the outfield.
John Mayberry Jr. -- currently OF/1B, OF-only for 2014: He has played seven games at first base.
Brad Miller -- currently SS/2B, SS-only for 2014: He has played 12 games at second base and two at third base.
Ryan Raburn -- currently OF/2B, OF-only for 2014: He has played only two games at second base.
Anthony Rendon -- currently 3B/2B, 2B-only for 2014: He has played 12 games at third base.
Darin Ruf -- currently OF/1B, OF-only for 2014: He has played 19 games at first base.
Eric Sogard -- currently SS/2B, 2B-only for 2014: He has played eight games at shortstop.

[h=3]Position oddities[/h]
These are players who have made between 5-10 appearances at an unusual position. In five- or 10-game qualification leagues, these could be sneaky values.

Alexi Amarista: Seven games played at third base.
Emilio Bonifacio: Five games played at third base, one at shortstop.
Brett Lawrie: Six games played at second base.
DJ LeMahieu: Seven games played at third base, one apiece at first base and shortstop.
Jonathan Lucroy: Six games played at first base.
Daniel Murphy: Seven games played at first base.
These are players who have made fewer than five appearances at an unusual position. In one-game qualification leagues, these could be sneaky values.
Yonder Alonso: One game played apiece at second base, third base and in the outfield.
Jose Bautista: Three games played at third base, one at first base.
Gordon Beckham: Two games played at shortstop.
Robinson Cano: One game played at shortstop.
Eric Chavez: Three games played at first base.
Josh Donaldson: One game played apiece at first base and shortstop.
Adam Dunn: Three games played in the outfield.
Mark Ellis: One game played at third base.
Evan Gattis: Four games played at first base.
Eric Hosmer: One game played in the outfield.
Howie Kendrick: One game played in the outfield.
Russell Martin: Three games played at third base, one in the outfield.
Will Middlebrooks: Two games played at second base.
Yadier Molina: Four games played at first base.
Mitch Moreland: One game played in the outfield.
David Ortiz: Four games played at first base.
Lyle Overbay: Four games played in the outfield.
Mark Reynolds: One game played at second base.
Wilin Rosario: Three games played at first base.
Mark Trumbo: One game played at third base.
Vernon Wells: One game played apiece at first base, second base and third base.
Eric Young Jr.: Four games played at second base.

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[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.
<CENTER>#</CENTER>Player, Team<CENTER>Pos
Rk</CENTER>
<CENTER>Prv
Rk</CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER><CENTER>#</CENTER>Player, Team<CENTER>Pos
Rk</CENTER>
<CENTER>Prv
Rk</CENTER>
1Miguel Cabrera, Det3B1176Adam Dunn, CWS1B1191
2Mike Trout, LAAOF1277Daniel Murphy, NYM2B1172
3Paul Goldschmidt, Ari1B1478J.J. Hardy, BalSS783
4Robinson Cano, NYY2B1579A.J. Pierzynski, TexC787
5Andrew McCutchen, PitOF2380Dexter Fowler, ColOF3277
6Chris Davis, Bal1B2681Will Venable, SDOF33117
7Jacoby Ellsbury, BosOF3882Alexei Ramirez, CWSSS886
8Adam Jones, BalOF4983Jason Castro, HouC8107
9Hanley Ramirez, LADSS11284Brett Gardner, NYYOF3478
10Evan Longoria, TB3B21585Josh Donaldson, Oak3B1296
11Adrian Beltre, Tex3B3786Carl Crawford, LADOF3579
12Joey Votto, Cin1B31187Anthony Rizzo, ChC1B1298
13Edwin Encarnacion, Tor1B41388Leonys Martin, TexOF3675
14Troy Tulowitzki, ColSS21089Aramis Ramirez, Mil3B13110
15Justin Upton, AtlOF51490Brian McCann, AtlC985
16Freddie Freeman, Atl1B51991Alejandro De Aza, CWSOF3792
17Bryce Harper, WshOF62292Coco Crisp, OakOF38100
18Ian Kinsler, Tex2B22593Asdrubal Cabrera, CleSS984
19Matt Holliday, StLOF72194Brandon Belt, SF1B13103
20Ian Desmond, WshSS32895Kyle Seager, Sea3B1482
21Eric Hosmer, KC1B62996Matt Wieters, BalC1097
22Curtis Granderson, NYYOF83397Matt Kemp, LADOF39108
23Dustin Pedroia, Bos2B33098Jedd Gyorko, SD2B12111
24Jose Reyes, TorSS41799Joe Mauer, MinC1181
25Alex Rios, TexOF923100Kendrys Morales, Sea1B1480
26Prince Fielder, Det1B718101Erick Aybar, LAASS1089
27Carlos Gomez, MilOF1016102Desmond Jennings, TBOF4094
28Yasiel Puig, LADOF1132103Norichika Aoki, MilOF4195
29David Ortiz, BosDH124104Jed Lowrie, OakSS11113
30Elvis Andrus, TexSS535105Dan Uggla, Atl2B13145
31Giancarlo Stanton, MiaOF1226106Nate Schierholtz, ChCOF42105
32Martin Prado, Ari3B450107Darin Ruf, PhiOF43135
33Alfonso Soriano, NYYOF1351108Adam Eaton, AriOF44NR
34Adrian Gonzalez, LAD1B820109Adam LaRoche, Wsh1B15104
35Brandon Phillips, Cin2B439110Salvador Perez, KCC12132
36Allen Craig, StL1B941111Nolan Arenado, Col3B15120
37Carlos Beltran, StLOF1448112Jimmy Rollins, PhiSS12102
38Jean Segura, MilSS634113Emilio Bonifacio, KCOF45NR
39Jay Bruce, CinOF1527114Chris Johnson, Atl3B16101
40Jason Kipnis, Cle2B538115Mike Napoli, BosC13114
41Buster Posey, SFC131116Nate McLouth, BalOF46115
42Domonic Brown, PhiOF1637117Justin Morneau, Min1B1699
43Jayson Werth, WshOF1745118Rajai Davis, TorOF47128
44Pedro Alvarez, Pit3B549119Jarrod Saltalamacchia, BosC14124
45Carlos Gonzalez, ColOF1840120Neil Walker, Pit2B14118
46Shin-Soo Choo, CinOF1959121Andre Ethier, LADOF48109
47Ben Zobrist, TB2B646122Justin Smoak, Sea1B17106
48Billy Butler, KC1B1061123Christian Yelich, MiaOF49121
49Austin Jackson, DetOF2058124Jon Jay, StLOF50136
50Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh3B653125Brandon Moss, Oak1B18143
51Yadier Molina, StLC247126Andrelton Simmons, AtlSS13130
52Hunter Pence, SFOF2157127Jarrod Dyson, KCOF51NR
53Victor Martinez, DetC362128Carlos Ruiz, PhiC15NR
54Torii Hunter, DetOF2260129Howie Kendrick, LAA2B1593
55Shane Victorino, BosOF2371130Stephen Drew, BosSS14131
56Jose Altuve, Hou2B736131Gerardo Parra, AriOF52NR
57Matt Carpenter, StL2B876132Nick Swisher, CleOF53148
58Brett Lawrie, Tor3B756133Chris Carter, Hou1B19NR
59Carlos Santana, CleC466134Marlon Byrd, PitOF54NR
60Wil Myers, TBOF2443135Matt Dominguez, Hou3B17NR
61Manny Machado, Bal3B855136Wilson Ramos, WshC16146
62Wilin Rosario, ColC570137Khris Davis, MilOF55NR
63Alex Rodriguez, NYY3B9112138Zack Cozart, CinSS15NR
64Michael Cuddyer, ColOF2564139Yonder Alonso, SD1B20138
65Aaron Hill, Ari2B974140Omar Infante, Det2B16NR
66Pablo Sandoval, SF3B1088141Ichiro Suzuki, NYYOF56134
67Yoenis Cespedes, OakOF2652142Nick Franklin, SeaSS16116
68Jonathan Lucroy, MilC673143Russell Martin, PitC17133
69Michael Bourn, CleOF2765144Ike Davis, NYM1B21129
70Alex Gordon, KCOF2869145Mitch Moreland, Tex1B22NR
71Mark Trumbo, LAAOF2967146Eric Young Jr., NYMOF57147
72David Wright, NYM3B1190147Jonathan Villar, HouSS17139
73Josh Hamilton, LAAOF3068148Todd Frazier, Cin3B18140
74Chase Utley, Phi2B1063149Starlin Castro, ChCSS18137
75Jose Bautista, TorOF3142150Matt Joyce, TBOF58NR

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hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]September pitching preview[/h][h=3]Which youngsters are facing innings limits? Who has the best matchups?[/h]
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

It is an irresistible urge.

"I'm toast."


In the wake of devastating news -- in this case Monday's mid-afternoon report that the New York Mets' Matt Harvey is done for the season with a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and might be destined for Tommy John surgery -- fantasy owners often embrace such negative, immediate feelings.

This is the No. 14 overall player, and No. 4 starting pitcher, on our Player Rater, and a player who outperformed his preseason ADP (average draft position) by 149 spots overall, 39 at his position alone. Harvey was the linchpin to many fantasy teams' championship hopes, so his loss understandably shifts emotions.


To illustrate Harvey's impact on his teams' performance, Mike Polikoff, who oversees our league manager product, reports that 47.9 percent of Harvey's owners in ESPN head-to-head leagues currently reside in a playoff spot -- that's a top-four spot in the standings -- while 40.5 percent of his owners in ESPN Rotisserie leagues rank in the top three of the standings.

Feel free to first take a few minutes to wallow in your sorrow, but the true fantasy champions are the ones who most quickly recapture their confidence and fill the resulting void. Besides, any Harvey owner should've been at least somewhat prepared for his potential late-season absence -- especially his owners in head-to-head formats -- considering that he is a 24-year-old, second-year player on pace for 224 innings pitched whose seasonal workload was subject of debate.

Owners of Miami Marlins 21-year-old Jose Fernandez, the No. 26 overall and No. 7 starting pitcher on our Player Rater, can also attest. With six days to go followed by four weeks of playoffs in ESPN's standard head-to-head leagues, and 34 days to go in ESPN's standard Rotisserie leagues, we enter the stretch run of 2013 with 20 percent of fantasy's top 10 pitchers effectively unavailable to help. Fernandez faces a widely reported 170-inning cap, giving him another 17 1/3 innings, or approximately two to three starts, remaining in his season.

Potentially radical strategic alterations are therefore required, perhaps more so than in any past season, so the timing seems right for a "playoff primer" of sorts. Today, let's revisit some of the long-term planning tools of this column's 2013 past; refreshing the data should help you prepare for these final weeks.

[h=3]Innings caps and the grand workload debate[/h]
Fernandez is the most prominent remaining member of the "innings cap club," a group of pitchers who face a prescribed number of innings pitched -- whether publicly announced or a private team decision -- to their seasons. Just as Mat Latos in 2010, Jordan Zimmermann in 2011 and Stephen Strasburg in 2012, Fernandez has had his workload subjected to much scrutiny. Harvey might have as well; many reports had him facing a cap of 210-215 frames. This was a topic that came up in the June 18 edition of "60 Feet 6 Inches."

Teams address these concerns in myriad ways: They'll sometimes cut such pitchers' individual outings short, add extra days' rest between their outings, or sometimes simply end the pitcher's season prematurely. None of these things is a positive for fantasy owners.

To be clear, I do not agree with this innings-cap philosophy; it is my belief that pitches and/or stressful pitches should be the ones counted instead. That said, it's my duty to report teams' strategies and the impact upon their individual players, and it has become commonplace for major league teams to prevent their young starters from enduring an increase of 30 or more innings pitched from one season to the next.

The following chart identifies 25 starting pitchers age 25 or younger who are on a pace to accumulate at least 20 more innings pitched than they did in 2012. (Note: Harvey, who was on track for a 54 2/3-inning increase, is excluded.)

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
Player<CENTER>Team</CENTER><CENTER>Age</CENTER><CENTER>MLB
Rot.?</CENTER>
<CENTER>SP
Rank</CENTER>
<CENTER>Diff.</CENTER><CENTER>2013
IP Pace</CENTER>
<CENTER>2013
IP</CENTER>
<CENTER>2012
IP</CENTER>
Jose FernandezMia21Yes779213169 2/3134
Patrick CorbinAri24Yes835221 1/3177 2/3186 1/3
Mike MinorAtl25Yes1227206 1/3165 2/3179 1/3
Chris SaleCWS24Yes1322 2/3214 2/3172 1/3192
Shelby MillerStL22Yes2022 1/3172 2/3139 2/3150 1/3
Stephen StrasburgWsh25Yes2135194 1/3156159 1/3
Julio TeheranAtl22Yes2955 2/3193155137 1/3
Chris TillmanBal25Yes3222 1/3201160178 2/3
Jhoulys ChacinCol25Yes36103 2/3197 2/3162 1/394
A.J. GriffinOak25Yes4126 1/3210 2/3169184 1/3
Chris ArcherTB24Yes6125 1/3182 2/3145 1/3157 1/3
Gerrit ColePit22Yes9850182146132
Zack WheelerNYM23Yes10433182145149
Randall DelgadoAri23Yes12247184147 2/3137
Jacob TurnerMia22Yes12427193 2/3154 1/3166 2/3
Jarred CosartHou23Yes12939 1/3172138132 2/3
Sonny GrayOak23Yes14730 2/3182 2/3146 2/3152
Danny SalazarCle23Yes15357144 2/311687 2/3
Tyler LyonsStL25Yes17825 1/3178144152 2/3
Danny DuffyKC2418070 1/39878 2/327 2/3
Tyler SkaggsAri2219026 2/3178 1/3143151 2/3
Andre RienzoCWS25Yes19858186149 1/3128
Brad PeacockHou25Yes22031165 2/3133134 2/3
Jose AlvarezDet2422352188 1/3152 1/3136 1/3
Jake OdorizziTB2323926178 2/3142 1/3152 2/3
"MLB. Rot.?": Is the player in a current MLB rotation? SP Rank: Player's current Player Rater ranking among starting pitchers. Age is as of Aug. 27, 2013.

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Duffy, Skaggs, Alvarez and Odorizzi are included as candidates to make spot starts for their teams in September; but their inclusion might lessen your interest in them as stretch-run fill-ins. Duffy's numbers, however, are somewhat misleading. He was limited to just 27 2/3 innings last season before succumbing to Tommy John surgery on June 13, 2012, and a pace of 98 innings pitched shouldn't be a substantial worry for a pitcher who threw 147 1/3 innings as recently as two years ago. The Kansas City Royals are considering him as a potential September fill-in; he might be the lone exception to the innings-cap rule the other 24 face.

Take particular note of Minor, Miller, Teheran, Tillman, Griffin, Archer, Cole, Gray and Salazar, all of whom pitch for teams with a realistic chance at the postseason, and all of whom might make compelling cases for inclusion in their respective teams' playoff starting four. The Strasburg-in-2012 example illustrates teams' tendencies to count playoff innings against the cap; this means that Minor, Miller and Tillman, none of whom is on pace for as much as a 30-inning increase, could easily reach that threshold once postseason frames are included.

If you own any of the pitchers above, don't panic, but don't sit back and ignore your need for a contingency plan.

[h=3]Most and least favorable schedules[/h]
This was a topic that came up two weeks ago in this space: Which teams have the most and least favorable overall matchups the rest of the year?

It's a relevant question most any week, but with the head-to-head playoffs upon us, and fantasy owners seeking rest-of-season replacements for guys like Harvey and Fernandez, a refresh of the data might prove helpful. Here's how this works: I take the remaining schedules of all 30 teams, assign each day's opponent its seasonal average of runs, baserunners and home runs, as well as its wOBA (weighted on-base average), then total those numbers. For example, the Baltimore Orioles play the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Tuesday night, and the Red Sox in home games this season have averaged 5.03 runs per game; I presume for this game that the Red Sox will score -- you guessed it -- 5.03 runs.

The following chart, which is sortable by category, ranks these teams. Remember that these numbers assume that every team performs at a league-average level, while its opponent performs at its seasonal-average pace; it is merely a way to show which teams face an unusually large number of either good or bad opponents the rest of the way.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
Team<CENTER>wOBA</CENTER><CENTER>Runs</CENTER><CENTER>Baserunners</CENTER><CENTER>Home Runs</CENTER>
Tampa Bay Rays.321146.3396.435.0
Baltimore Orioles.321145.4396.033.4
Chicago White Sox.323144.4388.533.6
Los Angeles Angels.320144.0389.237.1
Minnesota Twins.316143.8393.034.5
New York Yankees.323141.9372.234.0
Kansas City Royals.321141.7384.935.5
Seattle Mariners.319140.3380.730.8
Oakland Athletics.319139.0384.033.1
Cleveland Indians.316138.1377.730.7
Pittsburgh Pirates.314135.9369.831.6
Milwaukee Brewers.311134.0369.930.8
Houston Astros.311132.7372.133.3
Boston Red Sox.319132.6355.733.5
Toronto Blue Jays.317132.5356.130.0
Texas Rangers.315130.8365.731.3
Cincinnati Reds.316130.4352.128.6
Detroit Tigers.311129.4362.328.7
St. Louis Cardinals.312128.0355.431.8
Miami Marlins.313127.6356.132.4
Los Angeles Dodgers.310127.1362.926.8
Arizona Diamondbacks.309126.8371.727.6
San Diego Padres.311125.7363.226.4
Atlanta Braves.303125.6356.528.3
New York Mets.308125.3349.129.6
San Francisco Giants.310124.3361.427.4
Colorado Rockies.313122.7348.923.5
Philadelphia Phillies.305122.4349.329.5
Chicago Cubs.307120.2347.128.0
Washington Nationals.297119.2354.425.9

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As was true two weeks ago, the Chicago Cubs are one of the standouts on the "favorable schedules" side, a plus if you consider that no Cubs pitcher is owned in 100 percent of ESPN leagues, including closer Kevin Gregg (97.9 percent owned). Should you choose to go the mix-and-match route, players such as Travis Wood (55.3 percent), Edwin Jackson (18.5) and Chris Rusin (1.0) could prove especially attractive. And if the team trades or removes Gregg from the closer role, a Pedro Strop (0.7 percent) or Blake Parker (0.2) would warrant an instant pickup.

The following five pitchers might be sneaky-good every-start options:


Dan Haren: His Washington Nationals face the most favorable schedule in terms of wOBA and runs scored, and keep in mind that he's 5-for-6 in quality starts with a 1.98 ERA and 0.83 WHIP since July 27.

Roy Halladay: I know, I've said I'm skeptical how much he can help, especially with his velocity lingering closer to the high 80s rather than in the low 90s as it was a couple of years back. That said, Halladay's Philadelphia Phillies face weak competition -- with the exception of six games against the all-but-clinched Atlanta Braves -- the remainder of the year. If there's any schedule that could prop him back up to even top-40 starter status, it's this one.

Paul Maholm: He's one of the few Braves with motivation -- he's trying to carve out a significant postseason role -- and one advantage for him will be that his team has 10 remaining games against lineups that are significantly weaker against left-handers, the Philadelphia Phillies (seven) and Washington Nationals (three), not to mention seven more against the light-hitting Miami Marlins.

Jonathon Niese: He has back-to-back quality starts during which his velocity was a bit closer to where it was pre-shoulder injury, and it helps that 18 of the New York Mets' final 33 games will be played at Citi Field.

Ricky Nolasco: He has five wins, a 2.53 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in nine starts for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and as an impending free agent, could be the pitcher the team leans on more to keep from overtaxing 1-2 playoff starters Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.

[h=3]Most and least favorable individual matchups[/h]
The streaming strategy -- this is where a fantasy owner routinely adds the day's scheduled starting pitchers, only to drop them afterward for the next day's -- is a legitimate one, even during the fantasy playoffs. (That's regardless of your opinion of it; it's completely allowed by the rules.)

Such an angle can get you through the fantasy playoffs, or the waning weeks of Rotisserie leagues, so long as you're mindful enough of the individual matchups. In the absence of a clear-cut, every-week pickup, it might be worth going the streamer's route. Heck, even with your proven starters, it's probably worth at least avoiding the more challenging matchups in these critical weeks.

The following chart ranks teams' lineups in both home (@BOS, for example, to show the average result of an "at Boston" matchup) and road (BOS, for example, to show the average result of a "hosting Boston" matchup) games, showing their seasonal per-game averages in runs, baserunners and home runs, as well as wOBA. Categories are sortable.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
MatchupTeam<CENTER>wOBA</CENTER><CENTER>Runs
per Game</CENTER>
<CENTER>Baserunners
per Game</CENTER>
<CENTER>Home Runs
per Game</CENTER>
@DETDetroit Tigers.3565.3513.691.14
@BOSBoston Red Sox.3505.0313.020.98
@COLColorado Rockies.3395.2312.661.09
@ATLAtlanta Braves.3314.8212.111.23
@TEXTexas Rangers.3304.6512.081.17
@TORToronto Blue Jays.3304.9112.311.23
@LAALos Angeles Angels.3294.3212.510.99
BOSBoston Red Sox.3294.9913.161.06
@TBTampa Bay Rays.3284.4212.251.09
DETDetroit Tigers.3284.8513.321.23
LADLos Angeles Dodgers.3274.6513.180.89
BALBaltimore Orioles.3254.8212.181.31
@BALBaltimore Orioles.3244.7911.361.40
STLSt. Louis Cardinals.3235.1812.540.90
OAKOakland Athletics.3214.7112.261.21
TBTampa Bay Rays.3214.4812.391.06
@CLECleveland Indians.3204.3911.651.12
@STLSt. Louis Cardinals.3204.5612.000.72
CLECleveland Indians.3204.7712.411.00
@MILMilwaukee Brewers.3183.9811.221.11
@CHCChicago Cubs.3174.1811.061.30
@ARIArizona Diamondbacks.3164.2511.840.90
LAALos Angeles Angels.3164.6712.311.13
@CINCincinnati Reds.3144.5411.911.06
@MINMinnesota Twins.3144.1511.670.87
@WSHWashington Nationals.3144.1811.380.89
TEXTexas Rangers.3134.4411.711.11
SEASeattle Mariners.3104.0011.571.35
@NYYNew York Yankees.3093.9811.260.98
@OAKOakland Athletics.3074.0911.610.88
ARIArizona Diamondbacks.3074.4012.780.82
NYMNew York Mets.3074.4212.080.91
@PHIPhiladelphia Phillies.3064.1510.951.12
ATLAtlanta Braves.3064.0311.711.13
SFSan Francisco Giants.3064.1911.730.68
TORToronto Blue Jays.3064.0411.561.15
CINCincinnati Reds.3054.0911.880.87
PITPittsburgh Pirates.3053.9711.271.12
@KCKansas City Royals.3043.9911.220.69
@SEASeattle Mariners.3043.8711.281.00
SDSan Diego Padres.3044.0611.541.00
@CWSChicago White Sox.3033.8811.111.00
@PITPittsburgh Pirates.3033.8111.170.77
KCKansas City Royals.3014.0811.890.69
HOUHouston Astros.3004.0311.140.91
MINMinnesota Twins.2993.7811.621.01
MILMilwaukee Brewers.2983.9210.830.92
@LADLos Angeles Dodgers.2973.4510.770.70
@HOUHouston Astros.2963.8810.281.12
@SDSan Diego Padres.2963.6210.960.81
@SFSan Francisco Giants.2963.4011.590.49
COLColorado Rockies.2963.4510.910.97
CWSChicago White Sox.2963.7011.260.85
WSHWashington Nationals.2933.6510.941.02
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies.2923.4510.850.75
NYYNew York Yankees.2903.9511.000.79
CHCChicago Cubs.2883.5810.780.86
@NYMNew York Mets.2873.4410.940.83
@MIAMiami Marlins.2803.5010.510.47
MIAMiami Marlins.2692.9010.110.66

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Bearing in mind that these are year-to-date numbers, and that lineups do change over the course of the season, the following two matchups might be sneaky-good going forward, if you consider recent returns:

CLE (home versus Cleveland Indians): This could effectively be either home or road, but given the choice, always pick your pitcher's home games first. The Indians might have been one of the game's most potent offenses for the season's first four months -- they had the fourth-best wOBA (.327) and fifth-most runs scored (490) through July 26 -- but were shut down by Yu Darvish on July 27 and have the eighth-worst wOBA (.295) and ninth-fewest runs scored (105) from that date forward. It's not a matter of roster changes, either -- Mark Reynolds is the only significant early-season name gone -- but rather a somewhat strikeout-prone offense merely regressing to the mean.

@PHI (at Philadelphia Phillies in Citizens Bank Park): You might still think of Citizens Bank as a hitter-friendly venue, and this year's returns could be your supporting argument. That said, flip through any of the previous three seasons' returns and you'll see that it's not the bandbox it once was. With Ryan Howard and Ben Revere effectively out for the season, this team is weaker than the one we saw in the season's first two months, having posted .213/.259/.322 triple-slash rates with a .255 wOBA at home since the All-Star break.

[h=3]Injury updates, or the road to recovery[/h]
Finally, let's take a quick-hitting look at some of the pitchers working their way back from injuries. It's possible that any of these arms remains available on your league's waiver wire, and I see every one being potentially helpful in September.


Matt Moore (elbow): He is scheduled for a rehabilitation start Thursday, with a tentative return date of Tuesday, Sept. 3, more than likely bumping Roberto Hernandez from the Tampa Bay Rays' rotation upon his return.

Jason Grilli (forearm): He will pitch a simulated game sometime this week, a significant step in his recovery. It's possible that he could be back closing games for the Pittsburgh Pirates in as little as a week.

Matt Cain (forearm): He is expected to resume throwing later this week, and might be ready to return on or near his eligible activation date of Friday, Sept. 6.

Clay Buchholz (shoulder): He made his first rehabilitation start for short-season Lowell on Sunday, and should make his second and possibly final start in either Double-A or Triple-A on Friday. Buchholz might threaten Ryan Dempster for his spot in the Boston Red Sox's rotation by the end of next week.

Johnny Cueto (back): He has resumed throwing, but remains a ways off a return to the Cincinnati Reds. It's unclear whether he'll return as a starter or reliever, but he might be in a race for activation with …

Tony Cingrani (back), who might be ready to return as early as he is eligible, on Thursday, Sept. 5.

Bartolo Colon (groin): He threw a 38-pitch bullpen session Monday, and is expected to rejoin the Oakland Athletics' rotation Thursday.

Brett Anderson (foot): He's also on the comeback trail, though with Colon also on track for activation this week, the Athletics might bring Anderson back as a reliever rather than starter. Colon presumably will replace Tommy Milone in the rotation, but could Anderson soon threaten Dan Straily?
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[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.
<CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>Player, Team<CENTER>Pos
Rnk</CENTER>
<CENTER>Prev
Rnk</CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER><CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>Player<CENTER>Pos
Rnk</CENTER>
<CENTER>Prev
Rnk</CENTER>
1Clayton Kershaw, LADSP1176Justin Masterson, CleSP5271
2Max Scherzer, DetSP2277Jhoulys Chacin, ColSP5384
3Yu Darvish, TexSP3378Dan Haren, WshSP5490
4Adam Wainwright, StLSP4579Mark Melancon, PitRP2578
5David Price, TBSP5680Jorge De La Rosa, ColSP5594
6Felix Hernandez, SeaSP6481Ian Kennedy, SDSP5689
7Zack Greinke, LADSP7882Tim Lincecum, SFSP5781
8Stephen Strasburg, WshSP8783Travis Wood, ChCSP5880
9Madison Bumgarner, SFSP9984Tony Cingrani, CinSP5963
10Craig Kimbrel, AtlRP11085Zack Wheeler, NYMSP6086
11Cliff Lee, PhiSP102086Marco Estrada, MilSP61121
12Kenley Jansen, LADRP21287Gerrit Cole, PitSP6282
13Aroldis Chapman, CinRP31388Brad Ziegler, AriRP2685
14Mat Latos, CinSP111789Rick Porcello, DetSP6387
15Homer Bailey, CinSP121690Jonathon Niese, NYMSP64122
16Jered Weaver, LAASP131491A.J. Griffin, OakSP6592
17Chris Sale, CWSSP141592Randall Delgado, AriSP66103
18Anibal Sanchez, DetSP151993David Robertson, NYYRP2799
19Mike Minor, AtlSP161894Alex Wood, AtlSP6796
20Cole Hamels, PhiSP172195Kevin Gregg, ChCRP2893
21Greg Holland, KCRP42596Ivan Nova, NYYSP6883
22Justin Verlander, DetSP182297Chris Archer, TBSP69100
23Matt Garza, TexSP192498Trevor Cahill, AriSP70105
24Hiroki Kuroda, NYYSP202399Jason Grilli, PitRP29111
25Francisco Liriano, PitSP2126100Ernesto Frieri, LAARP30138
26Joe Nathan, TexRP530101Felix Doubront, BosSP71101
27Mariano Rivera, NYYRP632102LaTroy Hawkins, NYMRP3197
28Julio Teheran, AtlSP2227103Andrew Cashner, SDSP72110
29Hyun-Jin Ryu, LADSP2333104Mark Buehrle, TorSP73119
30James Shields, KCSP2431105Sonny Gray, OakSP74118
31Patrick Corbin, AriSP2535106Dillon Gee, NYMSP75102
32Jarrod Parker, OakSP2639107Yovani Gallardo, MilSP76120
33Jake Peavy, BosSP2740108Bronson Arroyo, CinSP77128
34Grant Balfour, OakRP736109Paul Maholm, AtlSP78109
35Gio Gonzalez, WshSP2828110Roy Halladay, PhiSP79NR
36Jordan Zimmermann, WshSP2937111Jeremy Hellickson, TBSP8091
37Fernando Rodney, TBRP838112Wei-Yin Chen, BalSP81124
38Jeff Samardzija, ChCSP3041113Bartolo Colon, OakSP82129
39A.J. Burnett, PitSP3147114Ryan Vogelsong, SFSP83NR
40Edward Mujica, StLRP949115Bud Norris, BalSP8498
41Lance Lynn, StLSP3234116Erasmo Ramirez, SeaSP85126
42Alex Cobb, TBSP3352117Scott Kazmir, CleSP86108
43Addison Reed, CWSRP1057118Ryan Cook, OakRP32107
44Rex Brothers, ColRP1195119Mike Leake, CinSP87104
45Doug Fister, DetSP3442120Tyson Ross, SDSP88117
46Derek Holland, TexSP3544121Ryan Dempster, BosSP89112
47Sergio Romo, SFRP1251122Dan Straily, OakSP90106
48Chris Perez, CleRP1348123Jordan Walden, AtlRP33123
49Matt Moore, TBSP3654124Brett Anderson, OakSP91127
50Jon Lester, BosSP3758125Edwin Jackson, ChCSP92115
51Huston Street, SDRP1459126Martin Perez, TexSP93132
52Shelby Miller, StLSP3856127Scott Feldman, BalSP94136
53Hisashi Iwakuma, SeaSP3945128Trevor Rosenthal, StLRP34131
54CC Sabathia, NYYSP4043129Andy Pettitte, NYYSP95148
55Glen Perkins, MinRP1546130John Danks, CWSSP96NR
56Danny Farquhar, SeaRP1665131Jacob Turner, MiaSP97114
57Koji Uehara, BosRP1761132Zach McAllister, CleSP98NR
58Matt Cain, SFSP4129133Drew Smyly, DetRP35142
59Jose Fernandez, MiaSP4250134Chris Rusin, ChCSP99145
60Joaquin Benoit, DetRP1862135Jason Vargas, LAASP100144
61Rafael Soriano, WshRP1953136Clay Buchholz, BosSP101NR
62Kris Medlen, AtlSP4364137Brandon McCarthy, AriSP102133
63Ricky Nolasco, LADSP4479138Jose Veras, DetRP36135
64Jim Henderson, MilRP2075139A.J. Ramos, MiaRP37130
65Chris Tillman, BalSP4572140Danny Salazar, CleSP103NR
66Jonathan Papelbon, PhiRP2168141Samuel Deduno, MinSP104137
67Kyle Lohse, MilSP4660142Jeff Locke, PitSP105116
68Ervin Santana, KCSP4766143Jose Quintana, CWSSP106NR
69Jim Johnson, BalRP2255144Garrett Richards, LAASP107NR
70C.J. Wilson, LAASP4867145Craig Stammen, WshRP38NR
71Steve Cishek, MiaRP2370146Tommy Hunter, BalRP39146
72Wade Miley, AriSP4969147Ubaldo Jimenez, CleSP108NR
73Casey Janssen, TorRP2473148Corey Kluber, CleSP109NR
74R.A. Dickey, TorSP5076149Juan Nicasio, ColSP110NR
75John Lackey, BosSP5177150Bruce Chen, KCSP110125

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Bits: Brandon Moss showing power stroke
in.gif


Eric Karabell

I suppose it's understandable that many readers thought I had lost my mind when I admitted it wasn't outrageous for Oakland Athletics first baseman Brandon Moss to hit 30 home runs this season. Back in spring training, I had asked Moss whether he was capable of this feat. Of course he was going to say yes -- what would he say? -- and I didn't look at the possibility as ridiculous. After all, Moss hit 21 home runs in roughly half a season of at-bats last season, and playing time seemed more guaranteed in 2013.

Well, after bashing a pair of home runs among his four hits and knocking in six runs Wednesday, it appears that Moss is more than capable of reaching 30 home runs. He's at 24 now with a month left, and while he wasn't a coveted fantasy commodity back in March for standard formats -- and perhaps in any format -- he deserves to be owned in more than his current 66 percent of ESPN leagues for his recent performance alone. Moss is hitting .315 over the past 30 days, with seven home runs and 17 RBIs. Of the 10 players with more home runs in this time period, only Miguel Cabrera and Will Venable -- of course those guys belong in the same sentence -- have hit for a better batting average.

<OFFER>With only a few days left in August, it's well past the time for fantasy owners to disregard season numbers and look at recent trends. Yes, Moss is a career .252 hitter in more than 1,300 at-bats, and he's hitting .252 this season. Forget what you know about a player's past to a large degree, because Moss' journeyman history and low batting averages tell us nothing today. He's hitting now. That's what fantasy owners should be tempted by. Moss homered off Justin Verlander on Tuesday, and the lefty hitter took a pair of lefty pitchers deep Wednesday (Juan Alvarez, Drew Smyly), so he seems pretty locked in. Surely a contending fantasy owner can find room on a roster for someone like this.

Box score bits (NL): Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Ricky Nolasco fanned 11 Chicago Cubs over eight shutout innings Wednesday, lowering his ERA with his new team to 2.20 over 10 outings. That's outstanding. So why is this guy still available in 20 percent of ESPN standard leagues? … Speaking of the Dodgers, they signed former San Diego Padres walks-heavy pitcher Edinson Volquez, and he figures to replace lefty Chris Capuano in the rotation soon. Unlike Nolasco, who is thriving since being acquired, you don't want Volquez. His ERA this season is 6.01, and it was 5.72 at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. … Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton homered Wednesday, giving him four blasts in August and 17 for the season. Disappointment? Well, he's not likely to hit 30 home runs, but if healthy in 2014, he surely will. His improvement in walk rate is a good thing. … Colorado Rockies right-hander Jhoulys Chacin took a no-hitter into the seventh inning at Coors Field on Wednesday, the longest by a Rockies pitcher at home ever (in 1,516 starts). He ultimately allowed one hit and an unearned run. There has been only one no-hitter at Coors (thrown by Hideo Nomo). Chacin has had a solid season, with a 3.08 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, and while he has been considerably better in road starts (2.19 ERA), he remains usable at Coors Field (8-3, 3.71 ERA). … Atlanta Braves second baseman Dan Uggla returned from his DL stint Wednesday and singled in three at-bats. Uggla underwent corrective eye surgery, and with his power track record, he should be owned in most leagues. … It's tough to ignore how good Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Charlie Morton has been in August, compiling a 2.68 ERA over six outings, three of them wins. Morton didn't allow an earned run against the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday. Three of his next four scheduled starts seem attractive (Brewers, Cubs, Padres).

Box score bits (AL): Texas Rangers first baseman Mitch Moreland hit his 20th home run of the season Wednesday, and while he might never be a batting average force, anyone capable of hitting 30 in a season is worth owning. He's capable. … Kansas City Royals outfielder Jarrod Dyson possesses little power, but he stole another base Wednesday, his seventh in nine games and 26th on the season in 62 games. That's impressive. If the Royals ever give Dyson 500 at-bats, wow. … Royals catcher Salvador Perez bashed a pair of home runs Wednesday, giving him four in four days, and 16 RBIs in 10 games. His 11 total bases Wednesday are the most in a game by a Royals catcher ever. Rotating the hot catcher in your lineup in standard leagues is always wise, and this is now a hot catcher. … More Royals! Lefty Danny Duffy replaced Wade Davis in the rotation and tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings at Minnesota, striking out seven without any walks. Duffy, an intriguing prospect returning from Tommy John surgery, isn't safe to own this week if you're a contender in a redraft format, but he's certainly a player to watch in 2014. … Athletics lefty Brett Anderson is always a player to watch, but he's rarely on the mound. On Wednesday, he returned from a two-month absence from a foot injury and saved the game with three rather unimpressive innings. Anderson is slated to remain buried in the bullpen, but his future should lie as a starter. You don't need to add him in a standard league in 2013. … New York Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano (hand) is hoping to start Friday, but in the meantime, Mark Reynolds made his first start at the position since the minor leagues in 2007, and it went without incident. Starter Hiroki Kuroda was pounded for seven runs (five earned), but Reynolds, who had three of the five Yankees hits, was fine defensively. He might be heating up at the plate, and honestly, how much damage can one guy do to your season batting average at this point? … Spot start alert: The Seattle Mariners will call up right-hander Taijuan Walker to face the Houston Astros on Friday. Walker is one of the top pitching prospects in the game, and that's not exactly a juggernaut offense he'll face.
 

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Pirates acquire Justin Morneau

ESPN.com news services

PITTSBURGH -- The Pittsburgh Pirates are all-in as they chase the franchise's first playoff appearance in 21 years.
So is Justin Morneau.
Pittsburgh traded for the longtime Minnesota Twins first baseman Saturday, hoping the four-time All Star can give the Pirates' middling offense a jolt heading into the final month of the season.


"We felt that this move gives us a better chance to play in October, a better chance to win the division, a better chance to advance in October," Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said.
And for Morneau, the opportunity to get back in a playoff race proved too good to pass up. It's why he hustled from Texas -- where the Twins were playing the Rangers -- to Pittsburgh to hang out with his new teammates for the final four innings of a 7-1 win against St. Louis that lifted the Pirates into first in the NL Central as the calendar flips to September.
"You try to get here as quick as you can because you want to be a part of this," Morneau said.
The Twins obtained outfielder Alex Presley and either a player to be named or cash in Pittsburgh's second major move in a week. The Pirates sent a pair of minor leaguers to the New York Mets on Tuesday in exchange for outfielder Marlon Byrd and catcher John Buck.
"We've got more depth, we've got more options than we had four days ago," Pittsburgh manager Clint Hurdle said. "We're a better team. We're a stronger team."
The Pirates have been in contention all season thanks in large part to a pitching staff currently second in the majors with a 3.17 ERA. Morneau's presence could have an immediate impact on an offense that ranks 10th in the NL in runs.
The 32-year-old Morneau hit .259 with 17 homers and 74 RBIs this season for Minnesota and is finishing off a red-hot month in which he smacked nine home runs.
"I think he's found some ways to spark some things offensively in the second half," Hurdle said.
The Pirates will pick up the remaining portion of Morneau's $14 million salary, estimated at around $2 million. It's not an insignificant investment for an ownership group that has sometimes shied away from paying the tab for proven players.


Yet with Pittsburgh on the cusp of its first winning season since 1992, Huntington worked aggressively after the non-waiver trade deadline to give the Pirates the pieces they need to remain in a tight three-team divisional race with St. Louis and Cincinnati.
"We made Clint's job a little bit easier," Huntington said. "He's got a number of weapons at his disposal now."
While Huntington believes he'll be "mocked" for thinking the Pirates are true World Series contenders, he and Hurdle made a compelling case to Morneau, who had to OK the trade that ended a sometimes spectacular 11 seasons in Minnesota.
"It was tough saying goodbye," Morneau said. "Look on the other side of it, you're on your way to a team that is playing in front of a sold-out stadium and is playing for the playoffs and a division championship and all the other fun stuff. It's a lot of adrenaline, a lot of emotion that I haven't had in awhile."
Morneau won the 2006 AL MVP award and was one of the best hitters in the game until a concussion knocked him out of action in 2010. Still, he remained one of the cornerstones of the Twins' clubhouse. His departure is another emotional low point in a disappointing season.
"I have great respect for Morny," Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire said. "He was our leader. He set the table. If there was something that needed to be said, he stepped up."
Morneau sent a letter to Twins fans following the trade in which he told them "I am sorry that during my time here we weren't able to achieve our ultimate goal of winning the World Series, but I will forever carry many wonderful memories of my time here."
While Morneau's numbers have tailed off the last three years, his power should play better at PNC Park compared to cavernous Target Field. It's just 320 feet from home plate to the right-field wall at PNC, an inviting target for left-handed sluggers.
Morneau joins a club reaching heights not seen in a generation another proven bat and more than an ounce of legitimacy. And he'll do it while taking away at-bats from longtime friend Garrett Jones.
Jones has spent most of the season platooning with Gaby Sanchez at first and broke out of a lengthy slump by going 3 for 4 with a home run and four RBIs in Pittsburgh's 5-0 win over the Cardinals on Friday. Now he'll likely be moved to the bench or spot duty in the outfield.
Playing behind Morneau is nothing new for Jones. He was a prospect in Minnesota's farm system for years but couldn't break into the majors on a regular basis with Morneau entrenched at first. Jones called Morneau "a friend" and understands why the Pirates pursued him. Until Friday, Jones was hitting just .119 in August.
"When we're winning and we know we can get a good player, sometimes you've got to suck it up and know what's best for the team," Jones said. "Hopefully, I can still continue to get in there and play and contribute."
 

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Springer profile; top 10 prospects

By Jim Callis | Baseball America

There's absolutely no debate as to which minor leaguer has had the most impressive statistical performance this season. Center fielder George Springer has Houston Astros fans and fantasy baseball owners dreaming of major league stardom. He's hitting .306/.415/.609 with 37 homers, 107 RBIs and 43 steals combined between Double- and Triple-A in his second full pro season.

He's the minors' first 30-homer/30-steal player since Oakland Athletics outfielder Grant Desme in 2009. If Springer can go deep three times this weekend, he'll become the only 40/40 man since the modern era of the minors began in 1962 and the first since outfielder Len Tucker slammed 51 homers and swiped 47 bags in the Class B Southwestern League in 1956.

<OFFER>Unlike Tucker, the 23-year-old Springer is sure to play in the major leagues. The 11th overall pick in the loaded 2011 draft, he signed for $2,525,000 and should become the Astros' best first-round selection since Lance Berkman in 1997. (Shortstop Carlos Correa and righthander Mark Appel, the No. 1 overall choices in the last two drafts, should eventually challenge Springer for that distinction.)

</OFFER>
Springer's best tool is his well above average right-handed power, a product of quick hands, tremendous bat speed and strength. His speed, center-field defense and arm all grade as plus tools, and the only quibble scouts have with him is whether he can hit for average.

Springer does have a tendency to get too aggressive and look bad against off-speed pitches, and he has struck out 158 times in 475 at-bats this season. That said, Springer does draw walks -- he has 82 this year and 146 in 268 pro games -- so he should post a solid on-base percentage.

The other question with Springer is when he'll start helping the Astros and fantasy teams. The Astros have said he'll stay with Triple-A Oklahoma City through the Pacific Coast League playoffs, and there's little incentive to call him up after that.

Houston doesn't have to add him to its 40-man roster this offseason, so it could balk at using a spot for him before they must. The Astros also have the inside track to the No. 1 overall pick in the 2014 draft, and there's no reason to jeopardize their chances of landing North Carolina State left-hander Carlos Rodon.

Given his ability and track record, Springer is capable of putting up a 20-20 season as a rookie. But it looks increasingly more likely that we'll have to wait until 2014 to see him in the majors.

Nevertheless, Springer still cracks our top 10 list of fantasy prospects who can help your club in the season's final month. His upside is too high to ignore, not to mention big league clubs already have promoted several premier phenoms in the past two months, leaving a shallow talent pool.

[h=3]1. Carlos Martinez, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: 1)[/h]
Season totals: 5-3 record, 2.51 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 63 K's in 68 IP (13 starts) at Triple-A Memphis; 1-0 record, 2.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9 K's in 11 2/3 IP (three starts) at Double-A Springfield.
Update: It was a busy week for Martinez. He got his fourth call-up of the season last Friday when the Cardinals put Jake Westbrook on the disabled list, earned his first major league win (in a relief appearance) on Monday, returned to Triple-A Wednesday and fired seven innings of one-run ball, with nine strikeouts, on Thursday.
Prognosis: With Westbrook on the DL and Tyler Lyons demoted to Triple-A, the Cardinals will need a new fifth starter either Sunday or Tuesday, depending on how they wish to juggle their rotation. Martinez and fellow rookie Michael Wacha clearly are the Cardinals' best options, and Martinez may have the edge because Wacha hasn't started a game since Aug. 10.

[h=3]2. Michael Wacha, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: 5-3 record, 2.65 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 73 K's in 85 innings (15 starts) at Triple-A Memphis.
Update: Wacha turned in a pair of scoreless relief appearances for St. Louis in the past week, striking out 10 in 5 2/3 innings. The Cardinals sent him to Double-A Springfield with the idea that they'll recall him after the Texas League regular season ends Monday.
Prognosis: Martinez and Wacha are really Nos. 1 and 1A on this list, as whomever joins the St. Louis rotation could be a fantasy difference-maker in September. Wacha had a 2.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 23 strikeouts in 15 2/3 big league innings (including one start) this month, but Martinez is more stretched out and thus ranks ahead of him on this list.

[h=3]3. Taijuan Walker, SP, Seattle Mariners (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: 5-3 record, 3.61 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 64 K's in 57 1/3 innings (11 starts) at Triple-A Tacoma; 4-7 record, 2.46 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 96 K's in 84 innings (14 starts) at Double-A Jackson.
Update: Walker hit a rough patch in late July and early August, posting a 7.11 ERA over a five-start stretch. He has recovered to allow just one run in his past two outings, and he struck out nine in six innings in his most recent start (Sunday).
Prognosis: The Mariners are expected to add Walker to their roster today and start him tonight against the Astros. Some scouts consider him the best pitching prospect who has yet to make his major league debut, but he might not give fantasy teams a full month of starts. His 141 1/3 innings this year are already a career high, and Seattle won't push him much past the 160 mark.

[h=3]4. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: 4)[/h]
Season totals: .256/.308/.344, 6 HR, 41 RBIs, 75 SB in 115 games at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: Hamilton matched his longest stolen-base drought of the season by going from Friday through Wednesday without one, but he swiped two bags Thursday night. He now has 75 and likely will finish second in the minors -- Chicago White Sox second baseman Micah Johnson has 83 steals -- after topping the minors the previous two years.
Prognosis: Hamilton hasn't had a great year with the bat, but he can help the Reds with his blazing speed and his defense in center field. Cincinnati is battling for the National League Central title and could use him liberally as a pinch runner. Double-digit steals in 2013 aren't out of the question.

[h=3]5. Nick Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers (Last week's rank: 2)[/h]
Season totals: .273/.341/.439, 16 HR, 72 RBIs, 4 SB in 132 games at Triple-A Toledo.
Update: Castellanos added three more extra-base hits in the past week, increasing his totals to 37 doubles and 16 homers and further making his case for a September call-up. He earned postseason All-Star honors in the International League despite being one of the circuit's youngest players at age 21.
Prognosis: It's not a given that the Tigers will promote Castellanos after the Triple-A season ends Monday, though it should be. Andy Dirks has rallied to have a decent August, but Castellanos still offers more offensive upside.


[h=3]6. Erik Johnson, SP, Chicago White Sox (Last week's rank: 9)[/h]
Season totals: 4-1 record, 1.57 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 57 K's in 57 1/3 IP (10 starts) at Triple-A Charlotte; 8-2 record, 2.23 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 74 K's in 84 2/3 IP (14 starts) at Double-A Birmingham.
Update: Johnson continued his strong August by allowing two earned runs in two starts last week, including seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts on Thursday. He's now 3-1 with a 1.15 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 36 strikeouts in 39 innings in six starts this month.
Prognosis: The White Sox's best pitching prospect, Johnson is in line for a September call-up to lay the groundwork for him being in Chicago's 2014 rotation. The Sox don't have to protect him on their 40-man roster yet, which is the only reason they might not bring him up.

[h=3]7. Tyler Skaggs, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week's rank: 3)[/h]
Season totals: 6-10 record, 4.47 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 102 K's in 98 2/3 IP (18 games, 16 starts) at Triple-A Reno; 0-0 record, 4.76 ERA, 2.29 WHIP, 8 K's in 5 2/3 IP (one start) at high Class A Visalia.
Update: Skaggs hasn't had a great August, going 0-4 with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP in five starts. In his most recent outing (Sunday), he allowed five runs (three earned) and struck out only two batters.
Prognosis: When the Diamondbacks needed a spot starter Tuesday, they turned to David Holmberg, who lasted just 3 2/3 innings against the San Diego Padres. Arizona is toying with the idea of using a six-man rotation in September, so Skaggs could rejoin the rotation then. The Diamondbacks have recalled him five times already this season.

[h=3]8. Mike Olt, 3B, Chicago Cubs (Last week's rank: 10)[/h]
Season totals: .161/.265/.280, 3 HR, 8 RBIs, 0 SB in 35 games at Triple-A Iowa; .213/.317/.422, 11 HR, 32 RBIs, 0 SB in 65 games at Triple-A Round Rock; .333/.333/.750, 1 HR, 2 RBIs, 0 SB in three games at Double-A Frisco.
Update: For the first time since he was acquired by the Cubs in the Matt Garza trade, Olt started showing signs of life. He had a 4-for-4 game with a homer on Saturday, batted .368 last week and even drew eight walks.
Prognosis: Olt already is on the Cubs' 40-man roster, so they might as well call him up in September and see what he can do. Donnie Murphy has hit eight homers in August for Chicago, but there's no way he's the team's future at third base. Olt could start for the Cubs in 2014.

[h=3]9. Henry Urrutia, OF, Baltimore Orioles (Last week's rank: 5)[/h]
Season totals: .327/.370/.475, 2 HR, 12 RBIs, 0 SB in 25 games at Triple-A Norfolk; .365/.433/.550, 7 HR, 44 RBIs, 1 SB in 52 games at Double-A Bowie.
Update: After back-to-back multi-hit games (including a homer and five RBIs) on Monday and Tuesday, Urrutia has gone hitless in his past two contests. His overall season average is .352, which still would be good enough to lead the minors if he had enough plate appearances to qualify.
Prognosis: The Orioles remain in the American League wild-card hunt and still hasn't gotten consistent production from anyone it has tried at DH. Urrutia could get another chance to fill that void after spending a month with Baltimore earlier in the summer, but he also might get squeezed out of playing time if the O's complete a waiver trade for Michael Morse or Josh Willingham.

[h=3]10. George Springer, OF, Houston Astros (Last week's rank: 6)[/h]
Season totals: .317/.435/.649, 18 HR, 52 RBIs, 20 SB in 59 games at Triple-A Oklahoma City; .297/.399/.579, 19 HR, 55 RBIs, 23 SB in 73 games at Double-A Corpus Christi.
Update: Springer is finishing a tremendous minor league season in fine fashion, going 10-for-24 (.417) last week with a homer, five RBIs and two steals.
Prognosis: As mentioned above, Springer is ready to help the Astros and fantasy teams immediately. The only problem is that the Astros don't have much incentive to promote him in September.

Called up (with last week's rank): Kevin Gausman, SP, Orioles (8).
Dropped out (last week's rank): Archie Bradley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (7).

Jim Callis is the executive editor of Baseball America.
 

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Bits: Closer situations surprisingly stable
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Eric Karabell

The closing situation for the Los Angeles Angels might seem up for reasonable debate, but rest assured that right-hander Ernesto Frieri is the preferred choice for manager Mike Scioscia. Yes, setup man Dane De La Rosa saved Tuesday’s victory, but only because Frieri had already been used in the eighth inning of a game the Angels trailed at the time, until they scored two runs off Tampa Bay Rays closer Fernando Rodney in the top of the ninth. So in a way, this is all Rodney’s fault, right? Frieri saved Thursday’s win, although it was hardly seamless, but with seven consecutive scoreless innings since his last hiccup and only two walks against 10 strikeouts in that span, he’s back to an elite level.

Oddly enough, it seems like most closers are safe these days, which must frustrate fantasy owners desperate for free-agent saves. Frieri is one of 27 closers owned in at least 90 percent of ESPN standard leagues (22 of them are at 100 percent), which leaves only three teams’ closers readily available, unusual for this time of year. Those three teams are the Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets and Houston Astros. The closers for the Diamondbacks and Mets are pretty clear, though, as right-handers Brad Ziegler and LaTroy Hawkins seem to have a bit of security at this juncture, despite recent struggles. With the Astros it’s hard to make a case to own any of their pitchers, frankly. This makes things considerably tougher for fantasy owners, when nearly all the closers are owned and you’re basically forced to add one of the four different Astros to save a game in August.
Since save opportunities cannot be predicted -- the Atlanta Braves and, of course, the Astros are tied for the most in August with 16 -- fantasy owners should not be releasing anyone capable of providing them. In one of my leagues Kevin Gregg was punted. I’m not enamored with the Chicago Cubs closer, but he is closing, still. I don’t need saves there, but I don’t want someone passing me in the standings thanks to Gregg, either. Add Ziegler and Hawkins if for no other reason than to make sure another team competing with you in the standings or that might face you in the head-to-head playoffs (next week!) doesn’t use the saves to beat you.
Until recently, Frieri was one of those pitchers available in too many leagues. He’s still not owned in 100 percent, just like Danny Farquhar, Rex Brothers and Mark Melancon. Check free agency in your leagues -- whether you need saves or not -- and just make sure, because it’s not only about the points you can gain, but about teams you’re trying to beat as well.
Closer talk: The Pittsburgh Pirates say former closer Jason Grilli could return in about a week from his forearm issues. That’s possible, and the team is implying he could resume closing duties immediately, so add him in advance. But don’t drop Melancon yet! Grilli’s health is not assured. … Baltimore Orioles right-hander Jim Johnson looked fine to me Thursday. It’s his closing job, folks, and Tommy Hunter is probably next, not Francisco Rodriguez. … A bunch of closers haven’t been scored on in August; one of them is Steve Cishek. Never drop a save option! … Farquhar has 23 strikeouts against two walks in the past 30 days, with 10 saves. He should retain the job in 2014 now. … If I had to own one Astros reliever for saves, it would be Chia-Jen Lo. But I wouldn’t feel confident. … There’s nothing wrong with Oakland Athletics right-hander Grant Balfour, despite Thursday’s blow-up. It was one of those innings against a top offense. Balfour has two blown saves all year.
Box score bits (AL): The Cleveland Indians acquired outfielder Jason Kubel from the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday, but don’t expect the Kubel who hit 30 home runs to make a fantasy splash this final month. Still, those in AL-only leagues should add him, expecting occasional starts against right-handed pitching. … Indians right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez ended his August with a successful outing, fanning 10 Atlanta Braves and permitting three runs over seven innings. Jimenez fanned 10 in his previous outing as well. His final August ERA is 3.10, but his WHIP was 1.38, a bit high. Still, if you need strikeouts, he does that. … Indians outfielder Michael Bourn stole his 20th base Thursday. Last season on this date he had 37. He’s a disappointment. … Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Jake Odorizzi tossed five innings of one-run ball Thursday, his first big league outing since mid-June. Odorizzi, who had a terrific season at Triple-A Durham (3.33 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 124 K's in 124 1/3 innings) could stick in the rotation depending on what happens with the demoted but returning Jeremy Hellickson. … Oakland Athletics right-hander Bartolo Colon came off his DL stint Thursday and held the Detroit Tigers to one run in five innings. Colon was hardly overpowering, but that’s a solid effort in Detroit. Yep, go add him for two starts versus Texas and Houston at home. … Athletics first baseman/outfielder Brandon Moss is really rolling; he homered and stole a base Thursday!
Box score bits (NL): Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Yovani Gallardo certainly seems on track. He tossed seven shutout innings at Pittsburgh on Thursday and has allowed two earned runs in 19 1/3 innings since coming off the DL. Of course, you know what happens every time owners trust Gallardo. … Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez homered again Thursday, his second in three days. The guy will have a good September. … New York Mets outfielder Matt den Dekker was hitless in his big league debut Thursday but stole a base and scored a run. He hit .302 at Triple-A Las Vegas but doesn’t offer much power or speed. … Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy is really underrated; he had four hits, two RBIs and stole his 18th base Thursday. Murphy entered 2013 with 19 steals in 469 games. … Washington Nationals outfielder Jayson Werth homered again Thursday, his fourth in seven games. Werth is also hitting better than .400 in August. He’ll be back in the top 100 for next year’s drafts. … Atlanta Braves outfielder Justin Upton was hit by a pitch on the left hand Thursday, and might miss a game or two this weekend. With the Braves so safely in first place, don’t be surprised if several key players -- Upton, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman -- are rested sporadically the rest of the regular season.
Have a great weekend, and prepare for the exciting final month of the regular season!
 

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[h=1]Closer landscape for September, 2014[/h][h=3]What is each team's save situation for rest of this season and next year[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

It happens every year, without fail.

When it comes to saves and the closer role in baseball, change is the name of the game. Sixteen of the 30 major league closer roles changed hands for an extended period of time this season, a fact that should surprise nobody considering that at least that many did so in both 2011 and 2012.

Fantasy owners as a whole are learning; you see more than ever going the cheap route in the saves department. Understanding the volatility of the role is key to your draft-day strategy, though that's not to say you should punt saves entirely.

Today, let's play the prediction game -- both for 2014 as well as the remainder of 2013 -- examining the landscapes of each of the 30 major league bullpens. Picked for each team is: A "2014 Projected Closer," the definition of which is somewhat obvious, though doesn't necessarily mean the Opening Day closer, but rather the one likely to be in that role the majority of 2014. A "2014 Sleeper," which isn't always the top handcuff choice, but rather a pitcher with a skills to rise from nowhere and thrive in the ninth (à la Rex Brothers this year). Finally, a "Rest of 2013" pick, for those of you still in tight late-season races. Both the projected 2014 and rest-of-2013 closers are graded, to provide a sense of their expected value.


Arizona Diamondbacks: Brad Ziegler has pitched well since taking over as closer, going 7-for-9 in save chances with a 3.33 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 24 appearances since July 1. Still, even during that span, he has exhibited the primary flaw in his game, the lack of a dominant pitch to use against left-handers: They have a .315 batting average and .333 wOBA (weighted on-base average) against him, compared to .273 and .293 by right-handers. Next season, therefore, is where it gets interesting, because Ziegler is the one prominent Diamondbacks reliever who isn't yet locked into a 2014 salary -- J.J. Putz ($7 million for 2014), Heath Bell ($9 million, but only $5 million paid by the Diamondbacks) and David Hernandez ($2 million) are the others -- as he's up for arbitration at season's end. Could the Diamondbacks shop Ziegler? Might they prefer to restore Putz, the pitcher with the lengthier track record as closer, to the role given a new season's fresh slate? Won't Ziegler's September have much to say about the team's decision? The answers: A pair of "maybes" and a "probably," but most probable is that the Diamondbacks' 2014 bullpen should look a lot like 2013's. 2014 Projected Closer: J.J. Putz -- C. 2014 Sleeper: Matt Stites. Rest of 2013: Brad Ziegler -- C.

Atlanta Braves: Even with his declining strikeout rate -- he has whiffed 12.9 percent fewer batters this season than last -- and impending arbitration eligibility -- he'll be first-time eligible -- Craig Kimbrel will be the Braves' rest-of-2013 and 2014 closer. Consider: His 37.3 percent whiff rate ranks seventh among qualified relievers, and his 3.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) ranks first. 2014 Projected Closer: Craig Kimbrel -- A. 2014 Sleeper: Jordan Walden. Rest of 2013: Craig Kimbrel -- A.

Baltimore Orioles: Jim Johnson's recent struggles are a matter of perspective; he's only 13-for-17 in save chances with a 1.64 WHIP in 20 games since July 1 but he has a 2.45 ERA during that same span. Considering he'll be up for arbitration again after having earned $6.5 million this season, Johnson could be a trade or non-tender candidate this winter, especially because the Orioles have cheaper alternatives in Tommy Hunter (also up for arbitration but earned only $1.82 million this year) and Darren O'Day (set to earn $3.2 million in 2014). The Orioles' winter decisions might be the most important to track. That said, Johnson is the team's closer for the rest of this season, and his performance in September and beyond could drive his 2014 circumstances. 2014 Projected Closer: Jim Johnson -- C. 2014 Sleeper: Tommy Hunter. Rest of 2013: Jim Johnson -- B.


Boston Red Sox: This might've been a bullpen in flux until a couple weeks ago, when it was learned following his 55th appearance of 2013 on Aug. 13 that Koji Uehara had reached the threshold to activate a previously unknown $4.25 million vesting option for 2014 on his contract. Heck, he'll probably also reach the 35-games-finished threshold necessary to escalate his salary to $5 million; that would further lock him in as Red Sox 2014 closer. Any doubts about Uehara's durability appear to have vanished, as he has made appearances on consecutive days 12 times this season, has pitched more than one inning seven times, and is on pace to set a professional-best high with 71 1/3 innings (even including his one year in Japan as a full-time reliever in 2007). This is a much firmer bullpen than anyone might be willing to give credit. 2014 Projected Closer: Koji Uehara -- B. 2014 Sleeper: Rubby De La Rosa. Rest of 2013: Koji Uehara -- A.

Chicago White Sox: Addison Reed might be in the midst of another up-and-down campaign as White Sox closer, blowing five of his 41 save chances and on five occasions allowing two or more runs, but despite that he has made many more strides than you might think. He has upped his strikeout (24.5 percent, up from 22.7) and ground-ball rates (35.0 percent, up from 33.5) and lowered his walk rate (5.8 percent, down from 7.6) and well-hit average allowed (.133, down from .234), signs that the 24-year-old is growing as a big league pitcher. Remember, Reed is a pitcher who whiffed 38.0 percent of the hitters he faced, as well as 7.8 times as many as he walked, during his minor league career. There might yet be growth here; he could be a beneath-the-radar 2014 value. 2014 Projected Closer: Addison Reed -- A. 2014 Sleeper: Nate Jones. Rest of 2013: Addison Reed -- B.

Chicago Cubs: Current closer Kevin Gregg isn't especially likely to be back next season, as he's an impending free agent who has blown four of 19 save chances with a 4.73 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 26 appearances since July 1, and the curious question therefore becomes whether the Cubs, who have spent all of 2013 playing for the future anyway, might audition 2014 closer candidates sometime in September? It's possible, as both Blake Parker (2.02 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) and Pedro Strop (2.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) have outpitched Gregg during that same time span, both earning praise during that time as future closer candidates. Strop, who throws a little bit harder, has a little more strikeout potential and a little more experience of the two, is quite the sleeper … both for 2014 and the remainder of 2013. 2014 Projected Closer: Pedro Strop -- C. 2014 Sleeper: Blake Parker. Rest of 2013: Kevin Gregg -- D.

Cincinnati Reds: A year ago, there was much chatter about whether Aroldis Chapman might be converted back into a starting pitcher; the experiment wound up lasting deep into spring training before he was restored to the ninth. Today, after Chapman has tallied the most strikeouts (212), second-best strikeout rate (42.8 percent), sixth-most saves (71) and seventh-best ERA (2.09) among relievers with 75 or more innings since the beginning of 2012, there's considerably less debate about his future role. Underwhelming performance behind him in the Reds bullpen has driven much of that, but Chapman's own desire to close -- it's a major reason he was switched back in March -- has contributed. He'll both finish 2013 and begin 2014 one of fantasy's three most valuable closers, and he's signed for an affordable $3 million next season. 2014 Projected Closer: Aroldis Chapman -- A. 2014 Sleeper: J.J. Hoover. Rest of 2013: Aroldis Chapman -- A.


Cleveland Indians: For the second consecutive winter, Chris Perez will be up for arbitration (he and the Indians agreed to a $7.3 million deal this year), and that means potentially another offseason of trade rumors. But there are three key differences this time: Perez has been less critical of his surroundings this year, competition for his role has diminished and the Indians, now a competitive team, will probably decide they need a veteran force holding down the ninth inning in 2014. He's 15-for-17 in save chances with a 2.48 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 28 appearances since returning from a shoulder injury, and much more likely to be back in 2014 than could have been said a year ago about his 2013. (Which, naturally, means he's destined for a trade this winter, right?) 2014 Projected Closer: Chris Perez -- B. 2014 Sleeper: Cody Allen. Rest of 2013: Chris Perez -- B.

Colorado Rockies: Rafael Betancourt's impending Tommy John surgery clears up what could have been a muddled Rockies bullpen the remainder of this year plus next, as he'll miss practically all of 2014, presumably won't have his $4.25 million option picked up and might be destined for retirement. That thrusts Rex Brothers, the long-time "closer of the future," into the ninth-inning role. Though Brothers' command had come into question at earlier stages of his career, since his first save of the season on May 22 (the second of his career) he has been outstanding, going 14-for-15 in save chances with a 2.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 27.8 percent strikeout rate in 39 appearances. He has finally arrived as a top-10 fantasy closer candidate, and he might well enter 2014 ranked among that group. 2014 Projected Closer: Rex Brothers -- B. 2014 Sleeper: Chad Bettis. Rest of 2013: Rex Brothers -- A.

Detroit Tigers: Both the Tigers' eighth- and ninth-inning options, Jose Veras and Joaquin Benoit, have expiring contracts (though Veras' deal carries with it a $3.25 million option). Would the Tigers, who entered this year with a clouded closer situation, dare enter 2014 with a similar arrangement? Things could look eerily similar: Bruce Rondon, who has four holds, a 2.84 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 26 appearances since his most recent recall, might again enter the winter surrounded by "future closer" buzz. This time, though, it'd be warranted. Rondon has lowered his walk rate -- previously the most significant flaw in his game -- from 14.5 percent during his first four professional seasons to 11.0 in Triple-A and 9.2 percent in the majors this year; he has walked just 8.6 percent of hitters since his June 28 recall. This could be a zag-when-others-zig bullpen in every sense: The Tigers might (but shouldn't) sign a veteran finisher, and fantasy owners might (but shouldn't) be wary of trusting Rondon buzz the second time around if no one is brought in. 2014 Projected Closer: Bruce Rondon -- B. 2014 Sleeper: Drew Smyly. Rest of 2013: Joaquin Benoit -- A.

Houston Astros: The question will be asked once more, does it really matter who closes for a 100-loss team? Jose Veras was the bargain reliever brought in to close this season, boosting his stock to swap midseason for future chips, and the Astros should well do it again this winter. For the rest of this season, expect the team to mix and match with the precious few save chances they have to give. Next season, the team might seek a low-priced candidate, such as a Joba Chamberlain, Jesse Crain, Jason Frasor, LaTroy Hawkins, Carlos Marmol, Matt Thornton or even Veras himself, to allow their youngsters time to develop. But the major difference between these seasons is that, by 2014's end, the Astros might have something in a Kevin Chapman, Josh Fields or Chia-Jen Lo. 2014 Projected Closer: Joba Chamberlain -- D. Yes, it's a total guess. 2014 Sleeper: Kevin Chapman. Rest of 2013: Josh Fields -- F.


Kansas City Royals: Twenty-two weeks ago, it appeared that there was a changing of the guard in the Royals' ninth inning; Greg Holland had suffered back-to-back poor outings and lightning-armed Kelvin Herrera appeared to have taken over. But within a matter of days, Herrera had endured struggles of his own, Holland had recaptured the role and was destined for a 36-for-37 run of save chances with a 0.69 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 42.0 percent K rate in his past 52 appearances. Only the aforementioned Craig Kimbrel has been a more valuable fantasy closer during that time, as Holland has established himself a clear top-five option both for the rest of this season and 2014. 2014 Projected Closer: Greg Holland -- A. 2014 Sleeper: Luke Hochevar. Rest of 2013: Greg Holland -- A.

Los Angeles Angels: Is this Ernesto Frieri-Dane De La Rosa closer "partnership" really that? De La Rosa has set up Frieri in three straight, all of which were finished off successfully by Frieri, so it seems that the latter might be Mike Scioscia's preferred option. Certainly fantasy owners should be rooting for that; Frieri's strikeout potential (33.9 percent rate) is considerably greater than De La Rosa's (21.6). As for next season, the Angels as a team are destined to undergo change -- probably manager, general manager or both, before even addressing the roster -- so there's a good chance the role will belong to someone else come Opening Day. The Angels, never shy bidding free-agent dollars, seem likely to sign someone proven. 2014 Projected Closer: Joaquin Benoit -- B. 2014 Sleeper: Garrett Richards. Rest of 2013: Ernesto Frieri -- C.

Los Angeles Dodgers: As expected, Kenley Jansen captured this role with brilliant early-season pitching, and it shouldn't go ignored that he has slashed his walk rate nearly in half (5.0 percent this season, after 8.7 in 2012). He has quickly elevated himself to one of the most valuable closers, both on the field and in fantasy, in the game, and will both finish 2013 and enter 2014 with little to no questions. The better question: If a handcuff is even necessary, would it be Brian Wilson back to handle the eighth, or will it be Paco Rodriguez? 2014 Projected Closer: Kenley Jansen -- A. 2014 Sleeper: Paco Rodriguez. Rest of 2013: Kenley Jansen -- A.

Miami Marlins: The cost-cutting Marlins are always seeking ways to slash payroll, and closer might be one position at which they'll attempt to do so, considering Steve Cishek will be due a modest pay bump via arbitration from his $505,000 earnings this season. After all, this won't be a contending team, meaning no need for a pricey closer, and the Marlins have several intriguing young arms they could test besides: Mike Dunn, the team's holds leader (16); A.J. Ramos, one of the team's better strikeout artists (25.4 percent K rate); and Arquimedes Caminero, the team's hardest-throwing reliever, to name three. Don't be surprised if Cishek is moved to a contending team, though one more likely to use him in a setup/closer insurance capacity, like the Red Sox, Angels or Yankees. 2014 Projected Closer: A.J. Ramos -- C. 2014 Sleeper: Arquimedes Caminero. Rest of 2013: Steve Cishek -- B.


Milwaukee Brewers: Jim Henderson might enter 2014 the most cost-effective closer in baseball, owner of a 25-for-33 performance in saves, a 2.67 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in his brief career, and a year shy of arbitration, meaning he probably won't earn much more than his $492,000 price tag of 2013. Though he has been inconsistent at times, not to mention missed time with a hamstring issue earlier this year, his Brewers have taken the go-cheap bullpen route in seasons past, meaning they might only add setup/insurance policies on the cheap behind him. A possibility that shouldn't shock: Fernando Rodney finds a big-money deal challenging, at which point he lands here as competition. 2014 Projected Closer: Jim Henderson -- C. 2014 Sleeper: Brandon Kintzler. Rest of 2013: Jim Henderson -- B.

Minnesota Twins: If not Henderson, Glen Perkins might enter next season one of the game's best closer bargains. He'll earn $3.75 million, considerably more, but he also has the 12th-most saves (32) and ranks ninth among pure relievers on our Player Rater despite his pitching for a 60-win team. This is the sneaky you-know-what-you'll-get bullpen. 2014 Projected Closer: Glen Perkins -- A. 2014 Sleeper: Jared Burton. Rest of 2013: Glen Perkins -- A.

New York Mets: A herniated disc appears to have ended Bobby Parnell's solid 2013 season prematurely, and it could cast some doubt upon his future with the team, being that he's up for arbitration after earning $1.7 million this season. Will the Mets go the cost-cutting route at closer this winter? Might they seek a more proven alternative? Or could they go status quo? Parnell should still be affordable; the latter seems the most likely bet. He'll keep the job warm until Vic Black, acquired from the Pirates in the Marlon Byrd-John Buck deal, proves ready. As for the remainder of this year, LaTroy Hawkins, 6-for-7 in save chances albeit with a 5.56 ERA, should be the leading candidate. 2014 Projected Closer: Bobby Parnell -- B. 2014 Sleeper: Vic Black. Rest of 2013: LaTroy Hawkins -- D.


New York Yankees: For the first time since 1997 -- that's 17 winters -- the Yankees will enter the offseason seeking a closer, barring soon-to-be-44-year-old Mariano Rivera having a sudden change of heart about retirement. That spawns lots of questions about this previously rock-solid gig: Is primary setup man David Robertson ready to inherit the role, à la Rivera from John Wetteland? Will the Yankees, known historically for their interest in big-name free agents, seek a more proven choice? Is their $185 million payroll goal still in place for 2014, and if so, might that mean some lower-priced, less-experienced options are brought in for competition? All signs point to Robertson getting the ball and being similarly successful, but pitch efficiency has been a hidden problem of his: He has averaged 4.10 pitches per batter faced and 15.91 per inning; Rivera's numbers are 3.69 and 15.14. He's no guarantee. 2014 Projected Closer: David Robertson -- B. 2014 Sleeper: Mark Montgomery. Rest of 2013: Mariano Rivera -- A.

Oakland Athletics: Though there's no denying Grant Balfour's near-elite fantasy value the remainder of this season -- he's the No. 13 pure relief pitcher on our Player Rater and he's 17-for-19 in save chances with a 3.18 ERA since July 1 -- his 2014 circumstances are sure to come into question. The Athletics have a history of "going cheap" at closer; they might not be willing to bring back a 35-year-old at a more-than-$5-million-a-year cost. Besides, they have an elite setup man who could "graduate" into the role in Ryan Cook, who has nine holds, a 1.09 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 25 appearances since July 1. The difficult thing to predict: Where does Balfour land? 2014 Projected Closer: Ryan Cook -- B. 2014 Sleeper: Sean Doolittle. Rest of 2013: Grant Balfour -- B.

Philadelphia Phillies: No current closer has more money due him after this season than Jonathan Papelbon; he's owed another $26 million in 2014-15, and he has a $13 million option for 2016 that vests with either 55 games finished in 2015 or 100 games finished in 2014-15 combined. That'll drive the Phillies' closer decisions, and just as it did in July, it'll diminish their chances of trading him this winter, though they'll make every effort to do so. Hey, at least Papelbon's owners can rest cozy knowing their closer might possess the longest leash of anyone. Now the question is whether their shabby middle-relief corps can get leads to him. 2014 Projected Closer: Jonathan Papelbon -- C. 2014 Sleeper: Justin De Fratus. Rest of 2013: Jonathan Papelbon -- B.


Pittsburgh Pirates: Jason Grilli, one of the most valuable closers in fantasy the first half of this season, is on the mend from a forearm injury, spawning a great debate in this bullpen. Will he close again this year, after Mark Melancon has gone 8-for-9 in saves with a 0.60 ERA in his absence? And if he does, how will the team handle the two this winter, knowing that Melancon is due a raise from his current $521,000 salary in arbitration? The easy answer is that Grilli will return to the ninth and Melancon the eighth within the next two weeks and into 2014, but when there are two potentially elite relievers on the roster, it's often anyone's gig. 2014 Projected Closer: Jason Grilli -- B. 2014 Sleeper: Mark Melancon. Rest of 2013: Jason Grilli -- B.

St. Louis Cardinals: The popular prediction this winter will be that setup man Trevor Rosenthal, a harder thrower and better strikeout artist than Edward Mujica, will "graduate" to closer-ship next season, what with Mujica set for free agency at year's end. But before you leap to conclusions, remember that Mujica wasn't that expensive this year ($3.2 million), meaning he could return at an affordable rate, the Cardinals could entertain the thought of restoring Rosenthal to a starter's role, and the team could have former closer Jason Motte back in the mix by next May. There are several directions that this team could go, but considering how concerned the Cardinals have been about their starters' workloads, they might opt for status quo rather than have to scramble to find quality relievers to ease the strain on the rotation. 2014 Projected Closer: Edward Mujica -- B. 2014 Sleeper: Jason Motte. Rest of 2013: Edward Mujica -- A.

San Diego Padres: The Padres have been rumored to be shopping Huston Street for so long, they're sure to be surrounded by such chatter through another winter. He's still affordable, however -- he'll earn $7 million in 2014 and has a $7 million team option for 2015 -- and is a perfect 11-for-11 in save chances with 15 1/3 scoreless innings in 15 appearances since the All-Star break, restoring his stock to the upper tier of rest-of-this-year finishers. Street, considering both cost and performance, is also a virtual lock to be his team's Opening Day 2014 closer … even if he's no longer in San Diego by then. (Hello, Boston Red Sox annual winter closer trade acquisition?) 2014 Projected Closer: Huston Street -- B. 2014 Sleeper: Brad Boxberger. Rest of 2013: Huston Street -- A.

San Francisco Giants: Apparently, Sergio Romo is legit, and the Giants have been much more apt to push him this year than in the past. On 15 occasions he has pitched back-to-back days, including four instances of him pitching on three consecutive days, three times he has pitched more than an inning, he has already tied his career high of 88 left-handed batters faced and he's on pace for 58 1/3 innings, the second-highest total of his career. He'll enter -- and presumably finish -- 2014 the team's unquestioned closer, but it's possible that another disappointing year might result in the team shopping him midseason and/or testing 2015 candidates later in the season. 2014 Projected Closer: Sergio Romo -- B. 2014 Sleeper: Heath Hembree. Rest of 2013: Sergio Romo -- B.


Seattle Mariners: For the second consecutive year, the Mariners found themselves a productive closer off the scrap heap, as Danny Farquhar has been to this season what Tom Wilhelmsen was to 2012. This pattern, not to mention Farquhar's 11-for-12 record in save chances, 1.96 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 20 appearances since the All-Star break, makes it easy to suggest Mariners closers as excellent down-the-stretch choices. It's next year that's always in question. Farquhar is a 26-year-old who has remade himself, going from sidearm to more over-the-top, so his chances at extending his success into 2014 are good. That said, similar things might've been said about Wilhelmsen a year ago, and neither had extensive experience in the role at the time. In addition, Wilhemsen himself might be in the mix come spring training. Here's an even wilder thought: What if 2014 follows the same pattern, except it's Carter Capps breaking out? 2014 Projected Closer: Danny Farquhar -- C. 2014 Sleeper: Carter Capps. Rest of 2013: Danny Farquhar -- B.

Tampa Bay Rays: Fernando Rodney's performance this season has regressed, but no one expected him to repeat his record-setting 0.60 ERA, not to mention he's 18-for-21 in save chances with a 1.98 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in his past 29 appearances to at least recapture some of the form he showed last year. Still, the last time the Rays found a bargain, eventual-breakout closer like this, they let him depart via free agency: That was Rafael Soriano in 2010. Rodney is a free agent this winter, and the Rays might choose to go the bargain route again, considering their track record of success filling the role as well as his declining skills comparative to his probable price increase. This bullpen is anyone's guess; Joel Peralta (signed for $3 million in 2014) might be the team's closer come Opening Day 2014 but it could be anyone's gig come year's end. 2014 Projected Closer: Joel Peralta -- C. 2014 Sleeper: Jake McGee. Rest of 2013: Fernando Rodney -- B.

Texas Rangers: Though Joe Nathan has a $9 million option for 2014, both he and the Rangers have the right to void it if they wish; he earned his right with more than 100 games finished since the beginning of last season. By all rights, both sides should want him back as closer, but could the Rangers entertain the idea of letting him go and using the cheaper Joakim Soria ($5.5 million salary in 2014)? This is a deeper bullpen than you might think -- Tanner Scheppers also has future-closer makeup, and Neftali Feliz could always re-emerge as a candidate -- so a change isn't entirely out of the question. 2014 Projected Closer: Joe Nathan -- B. 2014 Sleeper: Joakim Soria. Rest of 2013: Joe Nathan -- A.

Toronto Blue Jays: Since the beginning of 2012, Casey Janssen is 49-for-54 in save chances with a 2.63 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 111 appearances, while no other Blue Jays reliever has more than two saves or a lower WHIP. He has quietly transformed himself into one of the better big league closers -- a top-15 option among the 30 at any given time -- and he has an affordable, $4 million team option for 2014. There's no reason to anticipate change here. 2014 Projected Closer: Casey Janssen -- B. 2014 Sleeper: Steve Delabar. Rest of 2013: Casey Janssen -- B.

Washington Nationals: Though he's signed for 2014 at $11 million, Rafael Soriano has hardly proved a trustworthy closer, either in the real game or in fantasy. Since the All-Star break, he's 11-for-13 in saves with a 6.62 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 19 appearances, and his six blown saves this year rank sixth most in baseball. It's for that reason that the Nationals face an interesting dilemma: Soriano's contract has a $14 million option for 2015 that vests with 120 games finished between 2013-14; he has 49 so far this season. Might the team entertain a switch next season, what with viable candidates Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen on hand, knowing that it'd prevent Soriano from reaching that threshold? The smart bet has Soriano entering next season the unquestioned closer -- his salary almost assures it -- but if there's a closer role with tremendous odds of changing hands, it's this one. Storen was once this team's future closer, he has one save, three holds and a 2.00 ERA in 10 appearances since a brief tune-up in Triple-A and he's a natural 2014 sleeper. 2014 Projected Closer: Rafael Soriano -- C. 2014 Sleeper: Drew Storen. Rest of 2013: Rafael Soriano -- C.

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[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.
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1Clayton Kershaw, LADSP1176Jason Grilli, PitRP2499
2Yu Darvish, TexSP2377Ivan Nova, NYYSP5396
3Max Scherzer, DetSP3278Rafael Soriano, WshRP2561
4David Price, TBSP4579Wade Miley, AriSP5472
5Zack Greinke, LADSP5780Tim Lincecum, SFSP5582
6Adam Wainwright, StLSP6481Mark Melancon, PitRP2679
7Stephen Strasburg, WshSP7882Ian Kennedy, SDSP5681
8Felix Hernandez, SeaSP8683Dan Haren, WshSP5778
9Madison Bumgarner, SFSP9984Marco Estrada, MilSP5886
10Craig Kimbrel, AtlRP11085Jorge De La Rosa, ColSP5980
11Kenley Jansen, LADRP21286Tony Cingrani, CinSP6084
12Cole Hamels, PhiSP102087Ernesto Frieri, LAARP27100
13Cliff Lee, PhiSP111188Yovani Gallardo, MilSP61107
14Mat Latos, CinSP121489Brad Ziegler, AriRP2888
15Aroldis Chapman, CinRP31390Felix Doubront, BosSP62101
16Homer Bailey, CinSP131591A.J. Griffin, OakSP6391
17Chris Sale, CWSSP141792Zack Wheeler, NYMSP6485
18Anibal Sanchez, DetSP151893Kyle Lohse, MilSP6567
19Jered Weaver, LAASP161694Chris Archer, TBSP6697
20Greg Holland, KCRP42195Justin Masterson, CleSP6776
21Justin Verlander, DetSP172296Gerrit Cole, PitSP6887
22Mike Minor, AtlSP181997Sonny Gray, OakSP69105
23James Shields, KCSP193098Mark Buehrle, TorSP70104
24Francisco Liriano, PitSP202599Randall Delgado, AriSP7192
25Joe Nathan, TexRP526100Kevin Gregg, ChCRP2995
26Jake Peavy, BosSP2133101Dillon Gee, NYMSP72106
27Matt Garza, TexSP2223102LaTroy Hawkins, NYMRP30102
28Hiroki Kuroda, NYYSP2324103Rick Porcello, DetSP7389
29Hyun-Jin Ryu, LADSP2429104Andy Pettitte, NYYSP74129
30Mariano Rivera, NYYRP627105David Robertson, NYYRP3193
31Gio Gonzalez, WshSP2535106Paul Maholm, AtlSP75109
32Glen Perkins, MinRP755107Andrew Cashner, SDSP76103
33Jarrod Parker, OakSP2632108Alex Wood, AtlSP7794
34A.J. Burnett, PitSP2739109Jordan Walden, AtlRP32123
35Edward Mujica, StLRP840110Bartolo Colon, OakSP78113
36Koji Uehara, BosRP957111Martin Perez, TexSP79126
37Patrick Corbin, AriSP2831112Bud Norris, BalSP80115
38Jordan Zimmermann, WshSP2936113Ryan Cook, OakRP33118
39Julio Teheran, AtlSP3028114Roy Halladay, PhiSP81110
40Alex Cobb, TBSP3142115Erasmo Ramirez, SeaSP82116
41Rex Brothers, ColRP1044116Danny Duffy, KCSP83NR
42Matt Moore, TBSP3249117Dan Straily, OakSP84122
43Jeff Samardzija, ChCSP3338118Trevor Cahill, AriSP8598
44Huston Street, SDRP1151119Jason Vargas, LAASP86135
45Doug Fister, DetSP3445120Clay Buchholz, BosSP87136
46Hisashi Iwakuma, SeaSP3553121Bronson Arroyo, CinSP88108
47Matt Cain, SFSP3658122Tyson Ross, SDSP89120
48Joaquin Benoit, DetRP1260123Jose Veras, DetRP34138
49Sergio Romo, SFRP1347124Ryan Vogelsong, SFSP90114
50Jon Lester, BosSP3750125Scott Feldman, BalSP91127
51Fernando Rodney, TBRP1437126Taijuan Walker, SeaSP92NR
52Addison Reed, CWSRP1543127Trevor Rosenthal, StLRP35128
53Derek Holland, TexSP3846128Danny Salazar, CleSP93140
54Ricky Nolasco, LADSP3963129Brandon McCarthy, AriSP94137
55Grant Balfour, OakRP1634130Pedro Strop, ChCRP36NR
56Lance Lynn, StLSP4041131Ubaldo Jimenez, CleSP95147
57CC Sabathia, NYYSP4154132Ryan Dempster, BosSP96121
58Kris Medlen, AtlSP4262133Wei-Yin Chen, BalSP97112
59Chris Tillman, BalSP4365134Drew Storen, WshRP37NR
60R.A. Dickey, TorSP4474135Jeremy Hellickson, TBSP98111
61Danny Farquhar, SeaRP1756136Charlie Morton, PitSP99NR
62Shelby Miller, StLSP4552137Edwin Jackson, ChCSP100125
63Jonathan Papelbon, PhiRP1866138Scott Kazmir, CleSP101117
64Chris Perez, CleRP1948139Joe Kelly, StLSP102NR
65Jonathon Niese, NYMSP4690140A.J. Ramos, MiaRP38139
66Casey Janssen, TorRP2073141Mike Leake, CinSP103119
67C.J. Wilson, LAASP4770142Jacob Turner, MiaSP104131
68Steve Cishek, MiaRP2171143Drew Smyly, DetRP39133
69Ervin Santana, KCSP4868144Bruce Chen, KCSP105150
70Jose Fernandez, MiaSP4959145Craig Stammen, WshRP40145
71John Lackey, BosSP5075146Dane De La Rosa, LAARP41NR
72Jim Henderson, MilRP2264147Chris Rusin, ChCSP106134
73Jim Johnson, BalRP2369148Michael Wacha, StLSP107NR
74Jhoulys Chacin, ColSP5177149Tommy Hunter, BalRP42146
75Travis Wood, ChCSP5283150Luke Hochevar, KCRP42NR

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hacheman@therx.com
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Outlooks for top September call-ups
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Keith Law

This year's roster expansion call-ups already have included a number of top prospects, with a few more likely to come up once minor league playoffs end in the next two weeks.

Here's a look at the short- and long-term outlooks for some of the biggest names who have come up so far, as well as the biggest name whom I expect to see later this month.

Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle: <!--offer-->Walker made his major league debut Friday night at Houston, a good first matchup for any pitcher fresh from the minors. He fared reasonably well, giving up just one run in five innings but not missing many bats. Walker showed a mid-90s fastball and a sharp downward-breaking cutter, as well as his usual slow curveball (about 72 mph) that he threw for strikes, but that is more of a show-me pitch than the other two offerings. My concerns about Walker are the lack of a clear out-pitch and with how upright he is at his finish. But I always prefer to cast my lot with highly athletic players like Walker, and believe there's the potential here for a No. 1 or No. 2 starter with time and work.

Billy Hamilton, CF, Cincinnati: The luster is somewhat off Hamilton after a disappointing 2013 season in Triple-A, where he hit .256/.308/.343, and his grade-80 speed wasn't enough to make up for his lack of hand and wrist strength at the plate. Pitchers can pound him inside and he hasn't yet shown he can find a way to adjust to this to be able to prop up his batting average. He'll have value this month as a tactical weapon for the Reds because his speed is game-altering, but if he can't get himself on base enough to let the speed play, he'll probably end up little more than Cincinnati's Herb Washington this year.

Nick Castellanos, RF, Detroit: Castellanos was a shortstop in high school, moved to third upon entering pro ball, shifted to right field last summer when it appeared that third base in Detroit was blocked by an immovable object, and spent this year in Triple-A in left. The position question remains unanswered, but he can hit, and he will hit for power, with a rotational swing and rapidly improving approach at the plate. For this year, he can help the Tigers when they sit Miguel Cabrera to get the latter healthy for October, making contact with doubles power for now and perhaps playing every day next year in left field while hitting for average with 15-20 homers.

Michael Choice, OF, Oakland: The A's first-round pick in 2010 had a miserable 2012 season, struggling for a half-year in Double-A before a broken hand ended his year in July. He's bounced back somewhat in 2013, with a higher contact rate but less power than you'd expect from a guy who shows 70 or better raw power in BP, with zero homers in the entire month of August. He profiles as a corner outfielder in the majors and eventually should sneak into the 20-plus homer range, but probably with a low batting average driven by his trouble making contact in the zone.

Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B, Boston: Bogaerts came up from Triple-A almost two weeks ago, apparently because the Red Sox believed they needed someone young and talented to waste away on their bench rather than get regular at-bats. Bogaerts' performance at two levels this season was outstanding when you consider his age (20), and I believe he has an even-money chance to start next year as the team's every-day shortstop, getting on base with nascent power that will eventually develop into 30-homer territory. For now, I'd just settle for seeing him play more regularly to help him start to adjust to major league pitching.

Erik Johnson, RHP, Chicago White Sox: Johnson took a solid step forward this year from durable but back-end starter to probable mid-rotation guy, showing above-average command of a five-pitch mix. Drafted in the second round in 2011 out of Cal, Johnson has never posted an ERA over 2.74 at any of the four levels he's pitched in the past two years, working mostly with a 90-95 mph fastball and an above-average cutter that he's added since joining the White Sox organization. I'd be surprised if he wasn't one of Chicago's five starters in April.

George Springer, CF, Houston: Here's one top prospect who should be recalled but hasn't been, as the Oklahoma City RedHawks are in the PCL postseason and Springer is their best player. He's a true five-tool player, with power, speed, range, and arm strength, while showing a strong ability to hit despite the utter lack of any two-strike approach. I think he'll have a healthy adjustment period in the majors, where given enough time, pitchers will exploit his tendency to overswing even when behind in the count -- but he'll still find ways to wow fans when he does square something up, with 30/30 potential right out of the chute.
 

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Weekend trades recap, Bits
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Eric Karabell

Several veterans that used to be varying levels of proficient in fantasy baseball were traded this weekend (just before the deadline to make them eligible for their new teams in postseason play). Among them are Justin Morneau (Pittsburgh Pirates), Michael Morse (Baltimore Orioles), Jason Kubel (Cleveland Indians), Michael Young (Los Angeles Dodgers) and John Axford (St. Louis Cardinals). Let's take a look at whether these guys are interesting pickups in fantasy for the final month:

• Morneau was hitless in three at-bats Monday. It's debatable whether he's much of an upgrade over his former Minnesota Twins teammate Garrett Jones at first base, but he'll play regularly against right-handers. Morneau hit only .250 in August, but added nine home runs. He's a must-add in NL-only formats for his run-producing potential, but I don't think his value rises in mixed formats. One could make a better case for his new teammate Marlon Byrd, who hit one lineup spot ahead of him on Monday.

• Morse hit a pair of singles in Sunday's game at Yankee Stadium, then sat Monday in Cleveland against right-hander Justin Masterson. Morse has had a miserable, injury-filled season, but he certainly possesses legit power, smacking six home runs in the first nine games of the season. He has seven in four-plus months since. Look for him to play mainly against lefty pitchers. I'd take Byrd and Morneau over Morse.

• Kubel bats left-handed, but still wasn't in Monday's lineup against Orioles right-hander Bud Norris. Kubel hit 30 home runs a season ago, but as with Morse, injuries have played a role in him hitting a mere five all season. Kubel played Sunday in Detroit, hitting a single and drawing a walk, but he's a poor outfielder, which is why Drew Stubbs is not likely to lose playing time in right field. Kubel would figure to play over designated hitter Jason Giambi, though. There's some September upside here.

• Young does not seem to be a great fit for the Dodgers, as incumbent third baseman Juan Uribe has been competent and first base is capably occupied by Adrian Gonzalez. Uribe hit three singles at Coors Field on Monday, and while he has little power and hasn't drawn more than five walks in a month since April, he hit .292 in August and is defensively proficient. Young, well, he's similar, except for the defense part. Young shouldn't be owned in standard leagues.

• Axford saved 46 games in 2011 and 35 more last year, but he lost the job along the way and doesn't own a single save in 2013. That's right, more than 100 pitchers have saved a game this season, including Brett Anderson, Jeurys Familia and seven different Houston Astros, but not Axford. He has no value behind Edward Mujica and Trevor Rosenthal in St. Louis.

Box score bits (NL): Pirates right-hander Charlie Morton continued his winning ways Monday, allowing two runs (one earned) in seven innings to beat the Milwaukee Brewers. Morton posted a 2.68 ERA in August, so while he's not a big strikeout guy, he's pitching well enough to own in any format now. … Atlanta Braves outfielder Jordan Schafer continues to run wild of late, with three more stolen bases Monday. Schafer also left early because of a lower back strain, but the Braves were way up at the time. Schafer has three multi-steal games in the past week alone. … Something's up with Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright, as he permitted 10 hits and six runs Monday after allowing nine runs over two innings to the same Cincinnati Reds in his previous outing. Don't overthink this and sit Wainwright, as he should remain active when he faces the Pirates next. … Dodgers great Yasiel Puig left Monday's game with a strained right knee, and while he's likely to sit Tuesday, this doesn't appear a major problem. … The Mets signed Aaron Harang on Monday. If you even think about signing him in your NL-only league, just give up now.

Box score bits (AL): If you owned Chicago White Sox lefty Jose Quintana and thought he left his Monday start after an inning due to injury, don't fret. A long rain delay was the reason, and it affected Yankees right-hander Phil Hughes as well. Quintana, who has pitched well, should start again in a few days. … Indians right-hander Justin Masterson might not, though. He left Monday's outing with a strained rib cage and has an MRI pending. Don't count on him for this coming weekend. … Astros shortstop Jonathan Villar started running again Monday, with his 12th stolen base and sixth caught-stealing. Villar famously stole 10 bases in his first 15 Astros games, then stopped running for three weeks. Hopefully he's back on track now. … The Texas Rangers finally got designated hitter Lance Berkman back Monday; he went 0-for-4 in his first appearance in nearly two months. It's tough to expect much here, except in walks/OBP formats. … Twins first baseman/outfielder Chris Colabello smacked a pair of home runs Monday, including a ninth-inning grand slam. He was terrific at Triple-A Rochester (.352, 24 home runs), but even with opportunity, he hasn't hit much in the majors. Colabello should play regularly in September -- especially with Morneau gone -- but he entered Monday 1-for-23 with 13 strikeouts. Don't get too excited. … Keep an eye out for Oakland Athletics outfielder Michael Choice, a top hitting prospect who debuted Monday with a walk and run scored in three plate appearances. Choice hit .302 with 44 extra-base hits and 89 RBIs at Triple-A Sacramento. If he hits, he'll play. We'll surely have more on recently promoted prospects during the week.
 

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[h=1]September risers, fallers[/h][h=3]Which notable hitters turn in far different stats during final month of season?[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

What is it about the season's final month?

Yes, proponents of "sample size" arguments will point out that most anything can happen in a month's time. It's true that fluky things can happen in a mere 30 days -- Ricky Nolasco is the No. 7 player overall on our Player Rater past-30 split -- but the fact remains that some players, for whatever reason, have a puzzling track record of success (or failure) in the regular season's final month.

Perhaps it's the lure of the playoff race, the cooling temperatures or simply players beating up on competition that has mentally "turned the page" to next year. But in examining the historical statistics -- beginning with the past three seasons (2010-12), for these purposes -- I found that several players have an inexplicably extreme career September/October split.

Let's start with the players available in a larger percentage of ESPN leagues who have favorable September histories, then conclude with players owned in a larger percentage (or in many cases 100 percent) who have troubling final months.

[h=3]Standout Septembers[/h]B.J. Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves: He's in the midst of a miserable year, ranked the No. 283 hitter on our Player Rater. To put into perspective the weight of his .200 batting average, consider that he's on pace for 471 plate appearances; only 33 players in history have registered a lower average in a season with at least that many PAs. But if you're an Upton owner -- all in-49.5-percent-of-ESPN-leagues of you -- there's hope:

• Career September/October: .264/.344/.465, .809 OPS, .352 wOBA
• Overall career: .250/.331/.412, .743 OPS, .327 wOBA

Another way to put it is that Upton has managed at least a .732 OPS and .322 wOBA in every September since 2006, but he did so in only seven of 25 months (10-game minimum) the remainder of the year from 2009-13. Why Upton has a track record of late-season success -- and let's add that he's a lifetime .267/.324/.554 hitter in 25 postseason games, so it's clearly a time-of-year thing -- is unclear, but sure enough, he's 8-for-17 with two doubles and one home run in his past four games, offering further encouragement. The Braves might be toning things down with a 15-game lead and magic number of 10 in the division, resting regulars, but in Upton's case they have every reason to trot him out there and get him straightened out before October. He's fighting for a playoff role.

Justin Smoak, 1B, Seattle Mariners: So far, so bad. Smoak is 2-for-10 through three September games, and is riding a .109 slump (6-for-55) with zero home runs in his past 17 contests. That said, his final-month track record is difficult to ignore, especially in comparison to his earlier-year performance:

• Career September/October: .321/.395/.520, .910 OPS, .398 wOBA
• Overall career: .229/.316/.383, .699 OPS, .309 wOBA

Smoak has batted .300 or better in every one of his three Septembers in the majors, but has never batted higher than .289 in any other month of his career. Being that he once again appears part of the Mariners' future plans -- he has set personal bests in terms of slugging percentage (.406), OPS (.753) and wOBA (.335) -- he should continue to get the bulk of the at-bats at first base; he has started 100 of the team's 138 games overall and 30 of their past 31 there. Here's another reason he's worth a look in the 88.7 percent of ESPN leagues in which he's available: He's a significantly better hitter against right-handers than left-handers, and his Mariners face a projected seven right-handed starters in eight games through Sept. 11, then from that date forward face opponents who have a combined four lefty starters out of 25.

Marco Scutaro, 2B/SS, San Francisco Giants: Back issues have dogged Scutaro for much of the year, so that he sports a .296 batting average today should be regarded somewhat remarkable. Even in his advancing years, he has proved one of the most adept in the majors at handling the bat.

• Career September/October: .298/.353/.433, .786 OPS, .343 wOBA
• Overall career: .277/.341/.389, .730 OPS, .324 wOBA

Consider that Scutaro's .298 September batting average is 18 points higher than in any other month, and in the past two Septembers he has batted .387 with 21 RBIs (2011) and .402 with 24 RBIs (2012). And if you're entertaining the argument that, "Oh, but his team isn't going anywhere," remember that his 2011 came during the Boston Red Sox's epic, 7-20 September collapse. Scutaro, owned in only 69.3 percent of ESPN leagues, is that safe, prop-up-your-lineup's-back-end hitter, especially so in September.


Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles: He's owned in all but 1.7 percent of ESPN leagues, so this isn't a straight, "go-pick-him-up" example, but Wieters' fantasy owners might not truly appreciate his history of September dominance:

• Career September/October: .293/.365/.495, .860 OPS, .368 wOBA
• Overall career: .255/.320/.420, .740 OPS, .322 wOBA

In no other month does Wieters have as good as his September 10.4 percent walk rate, and two of his best single-month home run outputs have come in September (seven in 2011 and six in 2012). A noted second-half performer, Wieters has eight home runs and 22 RBIs since the All-Star break, first and fourth among catchers during that span, and he's already 5-for-12 with a homer in three games this month. Just as he was last year, when he batted .296/.389/.541 with six homers as a middle-of-the-order hitter for the contending Orioles, he's critical to the team's playoff hopes this season.

Nate McLouth, OF, Baltimore Orioles: He's also integral to the Orioles' playoff hopes, but his fantasy owners -- those in 94.0 percent of ESPN leagues -- might have doubts about his playing time after the team acquired Michael Morse on Aug. 30. Here are some facts that should allay your concerns:

• Career September/October: .288/.380/.498, .878 OPS, .379 wOBA
• Overall career: .251/.336/.420, .756 OPS, .331 wOBA

In fact, McLouth has managed at least a .355 on-base percentage and .420 slugging percentage in every one of his six Septembers in the majors, yet has achieved those only 10 and 11 times in the 34 other months of his career (10-game minimum). He has been an outstanding find for the Orioles, who grabbed him off the scrap heap in June 2012, posting .269/.340/.421 numbers and averages of 16 home runs and 37 stolen bases per 162 games played for the team since then, and he's sure to get all the starts in left field against right-handed pitching going forward. As for those games against lefties that Morse might start, remember McLouth's importance as a late-inning defensive replacement; as there are more right-handed pitchers in baseball, there should be plenty of times McLouth comes on mid-game and sneaks in a stray at-bat or two.

Nick Hundley, C, San Diego Padres: His could be the sneakiest track-record-to-know of them all, as Hundley is available in all but 0.2 percent of ESPN leagues, and practically no one knows these following facts:

• Career September/October: .294/.336/.485, .821 OPS, .354 wOBA
• Overall career: .239/.299/.392, .691 OPS, .302 wOBA

First, a caveat: Hundley's September success has been the result of smaller sample sizes, as he had 90, 78, 43 and 78 plate appearances in that month from 2008-11 before missing the final month of 2012 with a knee injury. Still, it's difficult to overlook the fact that he has slugged at least .500 in each of his past three healthy Septembers, or that he's a .304/.344/.500 hitter with three home runs and 10 RBIs in his past 16 contests. Fantasy owners in 12-plus-team, two-catcher leagues could do a lot worse for a No. 2 backstop, especially because Hundley is playing for a role in 2014.

[h=3]Sorry Septembers

Mark Trumbo, 1B, Los Angeles Angels: He hit home runs in three consecutive games Aug. 17-19, but since then, Trumbo has fallen into a dreadful funk, batting .167 (8-for-48) with only two doubles, no home runs and 17 strikeouts. Late-season slides are nothing new for Trumbo, whom we constantly hail a midseason sell-high candidate:

• Career September/October: .207/.227/.352, .580 OPS, .252 wOBA
• Overall career: .251/.299/.469, .769 OPS, .329 wOBA

Most distressingly, Trumbo sports 31.3 percent strikeout and 2.0 percent walk rates in his career from Sept. 1 forward, and those numbers have shown a precipitous decline from July to August to September during his three full years in the bigs. He has managed at least an .800 OPS in eight of 15 months the rest of the year; he had .703 and .554 numbers in 2011 and 2012. Trumbo also has one other obstacle in his path: His Angels don't sport as potent an offense as they once did, their 79 runs the past three weeks ranking 16th in the majors (they ranked seventh in runs before the All-Star break). That means slightly less runs/RBI appeal before even getting to his track record of rising strikeout and declining power rates.

Justin Morneau, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates: There's no reason for Pirates fans, or fantasy owners for that matter, to hail the Morneau trade as a coup; it's puzzling that anyone would use the phrase "considerable upgrade" (and many have). He's valuable depth for the team at low cost, sure, but the Pirates picked the absolute worst time of the year during which to acquire his services:

• Career September/October: .252/.332/.400, .732 OPS, .317 wOBA
• Overall career: .278/.347/.485, .832 OPS, .354 wOBA

Now, a couple of points: Morneau represents the most valuable cross-league hitter FAAB target for NL-only owners all year, and I even placed a losing $82 bid on him in Tout Wars this past weekend (several owners had mountain piles of FAAB remaining); he could also be rejuvenated by fresh circumstances in the heat of a pennant race. He's also going to play, as the primary reason people used the word "upgrade" is they don't respect previous platoon mate Garrett Jones as much as they should.

That said, Morneau's September track record is ominous. He hasn't had an OPS greater than .696 in September since 2006; he also has averaged one home run per 36.4 at-bats in the month, compared to one per 20.2 at-bats the rest of the year. Plus, if you know anything about PNC Park's dimensions, you're aware that it's one of the few venues that represent a negligible bump for a left-handed slugger like Morneau. He goes from a ballpark with a 23-foot wall and 328- and 367-foot distances in right and right-center to one with a 25-foot wall and 320- and 375-foot distances in those spots.

Brian McCann, C, Atlanta Braves: He has enjoyed about the best season one could've asked of a catcher who missed the first 30 team games of the year recovering from shoulder surgery; McCann ranks 11th among catchers on our Player Rater. But as is the case with many catchers, the lengthy summer can take its toll.

• Career September/October: .259/.329/.410, .739 OPS, .321 wOBA
• Overall career: .278/.350/.476, .826 OPS, .355 wOBA

McCann once enjoyed productive Septembers -- he batted .304/.347/.663 with eight home runs and 27 RBIs in the final month of 2006 -- but in the past three years has turned in OPS beneath .650 in each. He's batting .226/.261/.345 in his past 22 games and with his Braves a lock to make the postseason, there's every reason to give their 29-year-old catcher and heart-of-the-order hitter additional rest in September. After all, they have important playoff roster decisions to make, and they could use a longer look at backup candidates Gerald Laird and Evan Gattis.


Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves: He has been one of the most under-the-radar breakthrough stories, ranking eighth among first basemen, 29th among hitters and 44th overall on our Player Rater to date, but the unfortunate reality is that his September history hints at an unhappy ending:

• Career September/October: .216/.296/.383, .679 OPS, .293 wOBA
• Overall career: .280/.353/.459, .812 OPS, .352 wOBA

Now, putting excessive stock in those numbers might be unfair, as they come from effectively a two-season sample and during his great 2013 he has batted 37 points higher than he did in his previous two-and-change. That said, Freeman's strikeout rate in September is 23.7 percent, quite a bit higher than his 20.6 percent mark the remainder of the year, and perhaps most important, he plays for a team sure to be resting its regulars. The Braves could give Joey Terdoslavich some time at first base in the coming weeks, or more likely, they'll recall Ernesto Mejia -- he's on the 40-man roster, after all -- to be Freeman's occasional fill-in.

Adam Dunn, 1B, Chicago White Sox: Does swinging and missing 350 pitches a year take a lot out of a guy? Hmmm … maybe:

• Career September/October: .214/.346/.391, .737 OPS, .326 wOBA
• Overall career: .239/.367/.496, .863 OPS, .370 wOBA

To be clear, that's a tongue-in-cheek statement, but there's certainly something to Dunn's history of late-season swoons. Also consider this: He's a lifetime .223/.352/.451 hitter (.803 OPS) with a .348 wOBA in the month of August, that representing easily his second-least productive month of the year. Dunn is a historically streaky player who could fall prey to a substantial slump at any moment; he's a .130 hitter with two home runs but 24 K's in 54 at-bats in his past 14 games. If there's any argument to be made in his defense, it's this: His White Sox play 15 of their final 25 games at U.S. Cellular Field, plus four more at Baltimore's Camden Yards, so at least he'll have the ballparks playing in his favor.

<H3>September 2010-12 leaders</H3>
These players lead in each of the primary Rotisserie categories from Sept. 1 forward the past three seasons combined (2010-12):

Batting average (minimum 150 PAs): Marco Scutaro .364, Ryan Raburn .356, Victor Martinez .344, Adrian Beltre .344, Chris Nelson .344, Miguel Cabrera .343, Jamey Carroll .339, Salvador Perez .339, Lance Berkman .335, Ryan Braun .332.
Home runs: Adrian Beltre 28, Miguel Cabrera 22, B.J. Upton 22, Curtis Granderson 21, Prince Fielder 20, Matt Kemp 20, Mike Napoli 20, Ryan Braun 19, Giancarlo Stanton 19, Evan Longoria 18, Michael Morse 18.
RBIs: Miguel Cabrera 70, Ryan Braun 65, Robinson Cano 64, Curtis Granderson 64, Adrian Beltre 63, Torii Hunter 61, Hunter Pence 60, Evan Longoria 59, Ryan Howard 58, Billy Butler 57, Albert Pujols 57, Delmon Young 57.
Stolen bases: Coco Crisp 31, Michael Bourn 27, Juan Pierre 25, Ichiro Suzuki 24, Everth Cabrera 21, B.J. Upton 20, Shane Victorino 20, Brett Gardner 19, Rajai Davis 18, Ben Revere 18.
Runs scored: Miguel Cabrera 64, B.J. Upton 62, Ian Kinsler 61, Austin Jackson 60, Marco Scutaro 60, Adrian Beltre 56, Aaron Hill 56, Robinson Cano 54, Matt Kemp 54, Ryan Braun 53.

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[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.
<CENTER>#</CENTER>Player, Team<CENTER>Pos
Rk</CENTER>
<CENTER>Prv
Rk</CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER><CENTER>#</CENTER>Player, Team<CENTER>Pos
Rk</CENTER>
<CENTER>Prv
Rk</CENTER>
1Mike Trout, LAAOF1276Jose Bautista, TorOF3075
2Miguel Cabrera, Det3B1177Josh Hamilton, LAAOF3173
3Andrew McCutchen, PitOF2578Will Venable, SDOF3281
4Robinson Cano, NYY2B1479Jason Castro, HouC783
5Paul Goldschmidt, Ari1B1380J.J. Hardy, BalSS878
6Jacoby Ellsbury, BosOF3781Coco Crisp, OakOF3392
7Chris Davis, Bal1B2682Anthony Rizzo, ChC1B1187
8Hanley Ramirez, LADSS1983Brett Gardner, NYYOF3484
9Adam Jones, BalOF4884Alejandro De Aza, CWSOF3591
10Adrian Beltre, Tex3B21185A.J. Pierzynski, TexC879
11Evan Longoria, TB3B31086Leonys Martin, TexOF3688
12Edwin Encarnacion, Tor1B31387Josh Donaldson, Oak3B1285
13Joey Votto, Cin1B41288Kyle Seager, Sea3B1395
14Troy Tulowitzki, ColSS21489Matt Wieters, BalC996
15Bryce Harper, WshOF51790Dexter Fowler, ColOF3780
16Ian Kinsler, Tex2B21891Aramis Ramirez, Mil3B1489
17Ian Desmond, WshSS32092Joe Mauer, MinC1099
18Prince Fielder, Det1B52693Salvador Perez, KCC11110
19Eric Hosmer, KC1B62194Brandon Belt, SF1B1294
20Justin Upton, AtlOF61595Adam Dunn, CWS1B1376
21Matt Holliday, StLOF71996Jed Lowrie, OakSS9104
22Alex Rios, TexOF82597Asdrubal Cabrera, CleSS1093
23Curtis Granderson, NYYOF92298Nate McLouth, BalOF38116
24Dustin Pedroia, Bos2B32399Desmond Jennings, TBOF39102
25Jose Reyes, TorSS424100Brian McCann, AtlC1290
26Freddie Freeman, Atl1B716101Emilio Bonifacio, KCOF40113
27Yasiel Puig, LADOF1028102Adam Eaton, AriOF41108
28Alfonso Soriano, NYYOF1133103Mark Trumbo, LAAOF4271
29Carlos Gomez, MilOF1227104Matt Kemp, LADOF4397
30Adrian Gonzalez, LAD1B834105Jedd Gyorko, SD2B1298
31Brandon Phillips, Cin2B435106Erick Aybar, LAASS11101
32Elvis Andrus, TexSS530107Nolan Arenado, Col3B15111
33Giancarlo Stanton, MiaOF1331108Kendrys Morales, Sea1B14100
34David Ortiz, BosDH129109Norichika Aoki, MilOF44103
35Martin Prado, Ari3B432110Dan Uggla, Atl2B13105
36Jay Bruce, CinOF1439111Darin Ruf, PhiOF45107
37Shin-Soo Choo, CinOF1546112Christian Yelich, MiaOF46123
38Jayson Werth, WshOF1643113Justin Morneau, Pit1B15117
39Buster Posey, SFC141114Neil Walker, Pit2B14120
40Carlos Beltran, StLOF1737115Jimmy Rollins, PhiSS12112
41Allen Craig, StL1B936116Brandon Moss, Oak1B16125
42Ben Zobrist, TB2B547117Andre Ethier, LADOF47121
43Jean Segura, MilSS638118Justin Smoak, Sea1B17122
44Austin Jackson, DetOF1849119Rajai Davis, TorOF48118
45Jason Kipnis, Cle2B640120Chris Johnson, Atl3B16114
46Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh3B550121Mike Napoli, BosC13115
47Shane Victorino, BosOF1955122Jarrod Dyson, KCOF49127
48Billy Butler, KC1B1048123Andrelton Simmons, AtlSS13126
49Carlos Gonzalez, ColOF2045124Nate Schierholtz, ChCOF50106
50Hunter Pence, SFOF2152125Carlos Ruiz, PhiC14128
51Yadier Molina, StLC251126Marlon Byrd, PitOF51134
52Victor Martinez, DetC353127Eric Young Jr., NYMOF52146
53Torii Hunter, DetOF2254128Jarrod Saltalamacchia, BosC15119
54Pedro Alvarez, Pit3B644129Chris Carter, Hou1B18133
55Matt Carpenter, StL2B757130Stephen Drew, BosSS14130
56Wilin Rosario, ColC462131Omar Infante, Det2B15140
57Manny Machado, Bal3B761132Adam LaRoche, Wsh1B19109
58Domonic Brown, PhiOF2342133Wilson Ramos, WshC16136
59Alex Gordon, KCOF2470134Zack Cozart, CinSS15138
60Brett Lawrie, Tor3B858135Jon Jay, StLOF53124
61Alex Rodriguez, NYY3B963136Mitch Moreland, Tex1B20145
62Carlos Santana, CleC559137Russell Martin, PitC17143
63Michael Cuddyer, ColOF2564138Ichiro Suzuki, NYYOF54141
64Jonathan Lucroy, MilC668139Gerardo Parra, AriOF55131
65David Wright, NYM3B1072140B.J. Upton, AtlOF56NR
66Jose Altuve, Hou2B856141Nick Swisher, CleOF57132
67Yoenis Cespedes, OakOF2667142Starlin Castro, ChCSS16149
68Aaron Hill, Ari2B965143Dustin Ackley, Sea2B16NR
69Pablo Sandoval, SF3B1166144Todd Frazier, Cin3B17148
70Alexei Ramirez, CWSSS782145Trevor Plouffe, Min3B18NR
71Wil Myers, TBOF2760146Nick Franklin, SeaSS17142
72Chase Utley, Phi2B1074147Avisail Garcia, CWSOF58NR
73Daniel Murphy, NYM2B1177148Denard Span, WshOF59NR
74Carl Crawford, LADOF2886149Brian Dozier, MinSS18NR
75Michael Bourn, CleOF2969150Jonathan Villar, HouSS19147

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