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hacheman@therx.com
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Bits: Werth, Harper deliver for Nationals
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By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

While Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper made news Monday by coming off the disabled list and -- naturally -- smacking an opposite-field home run in his very first at-bat, fellow outfielder Jayson Werth was the one who finished with an eye-opening five RBIs as the team dismantled overrated Yovani Gallardo and the Milwaukee Brewers. There seems to be little to say about Harper; despite him missing all of June with knee woes, I still think he's going to hit 30 home runs and garner MVP votes when the Nationals make a playoff run. He's universally owned and I'd buy low, especially in a dynasty league, because he's a first-round pick perhaps as soon as 2014.

With Werth, however, I'm more inclined to take his excellent work from the past two days and sell high, and quickly. For one, it's tough to generate optimism about his health. Werth missed half of last season after breaking his left wrist on a defensive play, and after serving a disabled list stint for a hamstring injury most of this May, he hurt his groin a few weeks later. The guy is 34 years old. On Monday, Werth singled and doubled in five at-bats, a day after he singled, homered, walked twice and scored four runs in a demolition of the New York Mets.

<offer>However, entering Sunday, Werth was hitting .265 and had fanned 10 times in his previous four games. Two effective games against poor pitching can't fix everything. I get to see Werth play quite a bit, and it's not just his durability issues that bother me. He doesn't steal bases anymore, he strikes out a lot and doesn't hit many fly balls, making me skeptical that he'll reach 20 home runs. What he earns from the Nationals is irrelevant to fantasy owners, but the fact he's owned in 85 percent of fantasy leagues seems a bit generous as well, compared to his production. Werth made colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 50 outfielders last week, but he's not in mine. I'd rather have the following outfielders owned in fewer ESPN standard leagues: B.J. Upton, Leonys Martin, Melky Cabrera, Kyle Blanks, Nick Swisher, Rajai Davis and Chris Carter.

As for the erratic Gallardo, I noted a few weeks ago when he was on a streak of having not permitted an earned run over 21 innings that he was far from an ace, far from reliable and far from a buy-low choice. On Monday, the right-hander gave up nine hits, two walks and eight runs in three innings, looking rather disinterested along the way. The prior outing, the Chicago Cubs -- another team not exactly close to the league leaders in runs scored -- enjoyed eight hits, four walks and five runs (three earned) in four frames. The Brewers are a mess, but Gallardo isn't helping matters with a 1.46 WHIP. I'd move on. Don't be surprised if the Brewers do as well, and a change of scenery -- with the potential for improved strikeout rate -- could turn things around in this case.

Box score bits (NL): Brewers infielder Juan Francisco hit his 10th home run Monday after hitting three solo shots last week. Francisco will never draw many walks or hit for a high average, but he's playing regularly and Corey Hart is out for the season (drop him). There could be another 15 home runs in Francisco this season. … Miami Marlins right-hander Jose Fernandez tossed eight shutout innings against the San Diego Padres on Monday, earning his fifth win. Fernandez struck out 10 for the second time in four outings. This guy is good, and concerns of run support and a truncated September are overrated. Enjoy the fine numbers and worry about September later. Fernandez last permitted a home run in May! … Don't get enamored with Marlins catcher Jeff Mathis despite his seven RBIs in two days. He's still hitting .154. … I would never have gone near Padres right-hander Jason Marquis to start with, but his seven walks Monday added to his league-leading total. His ERA is 3.74, but don't let that fool you. The 1.47 WHIP is terrible and a far better gauge. … Cincinnati Reds outfielder Shin-Soo Choo continues to struggle in the No. 2 lineup spot; he was hitless Monday, and in seven starts covering 26 at-bats, he has just three hits. Why move him from leadoff? Well, I wouldn't have! … Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander J.J. Putz resumed closing Monday, but he blew the save against the Mets. Manager Kirk Gibson probably will stick with Putz, as it's not as though Heath Bell or David Hernandez is thriving. I'm not really buying low on Putz.

Box score bits (AL): New York Yankees lefty Andy Pettitte became the all-time strikeout leader in franchise history Monday, but the overall outing was far from historic. He allowed six hits, four walks and four runs in five innings, struggling with command. Pettitte doesn't even look like a decent fantasy spot starter anymore. … Detroit Tigers lefty Jose Alvarez was an intriguing two-start option this week, but the first outing Monday went poorly, and might preclude a second one from happening. Alvarez was tuned up for five runs (four earned) by the Toronto Blue Jays. Alvarez was terrific at Triple-A Toledo, but it's not translating to the majors. … Meanwhile, the Tigers might not get right-hander Anibal Sanchez back as soon as they'd like. Sanchez, working his way back from shoulder woes for Class-A Lakeland on Monday, left early when a line drive struck his calf. Stay tuned. Sanchez is having a terrific season and should remain 100 percent owned. … With Evan Longoria out of the lineup Monday, the Tampa Bay Rays inserted rookie Wil Myers into the No. 3 lineup spot, and he knocked in a run and walked twice. Myers had walked one time in his first 13 games. Longoria is day-to-day with a foot injury, and expects to avoid the DL. It's not as though we've heard that line with Longoria before, have we?</offer>
 

hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Puig's rest-of-season forecast[/h][h=3]Plus answering your questions on Chris Davis, David Ortiz, Justin Upton, more[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com


I'm breaking the rules.

Instead of getting right to this week's topic, readers "calling me out" on my rankings, as seen in Tuesday's 60 Feet 6 Inches, let's discuss a question that isn't among the ones below but surely is in the forefront of any fantasy owner's mind.

How about this crazy run by Yasiel Puig?

The No. 1 player on our Player Rater Last 30 split -- matching the number of days he has spent in the majors, entering Wednesday -- Puig has had a debut month that ranks among the best in the history of the game. For the second consecutive season, it's a rookie etching his name into the history books, and ESPN Stats & Information and Elias have some telling facts about Puig:

• His .443 batting average is the highest since 1900 by any player in his first 30 days in the majors (60 or more plate appearances), per Elias.
• His .436 batting average in June was the highest in a player's first calendar month since 1900 (minimum 60 PAs), per Elias.
• His 44 hits in June were the second most in a player's first calendar month since 1900, behind only Joe DiMaggio's 48 in May 1936 (minimum 60 PAs), per Elias.

At the same time, Puig's detractors will cite his "lucky" measures: His .513 BABIP, which leads the majors during the past 30 days, and his 36.4 home run/fly ball percentage, which is second highest (Pedro Alvarez leads with 37.5). They'll also point out that he has averaged just 3.24 pitches per plate appearances, fourth lowest during that span, and that is the area of worry to me.


Will pitchers begin working around him more often or attempt to fluster him with more breaking stuff? Perhaps. Puig will also inevitably experience some degree of regression to the mean in both his batting average and home run total. He is not going to bat .443 or hit 48 home runs in his first 162 career games.

Let's assume for a moment that Puig enjoyed success on batted balls in play at the major league average rates broken down by type (line drive, ground ball, fly ball, etc.) and quality of contact (hard, medium, soft). In that event, he would have batted .283 with only five home runs, rather than .443 with eight.

That's why any rest-of-season projection for Puig might have him batting in the .280s, rather than well above .300, and it's why he's a smarter bet for 10-12 home runs, rather than 20, in the Los Angeles Dodgers' remaining 80 contests. He could exceed those numbers, sure, but those estimate his safest odds. And that's really what projections are all about, forecasting the most likely outcome.

Perhaps that Puig moved up only to 50th this week, a rise of 10 spots, puts me in the "Puig detractors" camp. It's all a matter of your perception of his value …

… but that's exactly what today's column is about, right? Perceived player value, and your questions about mine, in the rankings below.

So let's get to it, as readers once again call me out on my hitter rankings.

Tom Sandhurst (@hashtagtom24): Chris Davis ranked 11 overall and behind Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto? Dude has been raking it legit style all season.


Well, he jumped ahead of those two this week, and I'm glad you asked the question because it had me looking more closely at Davis' value. To wit:

• His .471 wOBA (weighted on-base average, which weighs each hitting contribution in proportion to its actual run-producing value) ranks second.
• His .236 well-hit average (percentage of at-bats that result in hard contact) ranks eighth.
• His .372 BABIP is only 31 points higher than his career number in the category (.341), diminishing any claim that he has been fortunate in that regard.
• His 47.7 percent fly ball rate is a career high, and while that might hint at some BABIP good fortune, it also vastly improves his rest-of-year prospects in the home run category, alleviating most batting average concerns.
• He has a 29.8 home run/fly ball percentage, which is somewhat unsustainable, but his career number in the category is 21.8, per FanGraphs.

Upon closer inspection, Davis is on one of those absurd home run streaks, a la Jose Bautista in 2010-11, and it's impossible not to imagine him being at least one of the 10 best players in fantasy baseball the remainder of the year.

That said, Votto and Goldschmidt are right behind Davis and perhaps deserve more credit than you're giving them. Votto continues to flash some of the best plate discipline of anyone in the game, his 0.82 walk-to-strikeout ratio 11th best of 158 batting average qualifiers, and for the sixth consecutive (full) season, he has sported brilliantly balanced lefty/righty and home/road splits. His downside might be the most minimal of any first baseman, or really anyone in the game.

As for Goldschmidt, the advantage he provides comes in the stolen base category, his eight steals tops among any first-base qualifier this year. He's on pace for .302-39-135 numbers, and the improvement he showed against breaking pitches last season has extended into 2013, alleviating any major slump concern.

Ryan Appleton (@applejr35): How long are you going to keep Chase Headley so high on your list, while he wallows in mediocrity?

Concerns about Headley are fair -- he dropped another 11 spots in this week's rankings -- but I remain hopeful that the further removed he is from his absence due to a fractured left thumb, the more likely he is to recapture his 2012 form. As I pointed out three weeks ago, Headley's 2012 outburst was primarily a second-half development; he hit 23 of his 31 homers and drove in 73 of his 115 runs after the All-Star break. He's a better player than this, and I wonder whether he might simply be a second-half performer.


Henry Sugar (@HenrySugar1): Never really liked him, but David Ortiz has been disgusting. You moved him up but 32 [is] still low. Could end up top-10.

Any pro-Ortiz argument is valid, as since the beginning of the 2011 season, he has .314/.405/.583 triple-slash rates and has averaged 37 home runs and 115 RBIs per 162 games played. That said, the primary reason I won't boost Ortiz into my top 25 hitters is a health concern. He has battled Achilles problems for a large portion of the past calendar year, even making a trip to the disabled list to begin this season, and at age 37, the risk of recurrence is likely to increase. Keep in mind that in both 2010 and 2011 his second-half numbers weren't as good as his first-half stats, and in 2012 he played just five games after the All-Star break.

Matt Mesisca (@Mesisca): Please justify your constant ranking of Michael Bourn in the top 15 outfielders, because I don't see it.

Well, he's not in my top 15 this week, nor was he during his stint on the disabled list in April for an injured finger, but I see your point.

That said, Monday's Consistency Ratings update (covering games through June) examined the overall decrease in stolen base production this season, and Bourn is one of the better candidates in the category. Even with only 56 games played and a disappointing 21-steal season pace, he's the No. 49 outfielder on our Player Rater. He also has 10 steals in 46 games since his activation, which puts him on pace for 35 per 162 games.

Andrew Mazurek (@02Maz): Why won't you buy into Daniel Nava? [He] can't even crack [your] top 150! [He's] on pace for 21-98 with [a] good batting average and lots of walks. Looks legit.

Nava has hovered right around the top-150 cutoff, making it some weeks and falling barely short in others, and a quick glance at his June numbers helps explain why: He's a .290 hitter with three homers, 16 RBIs, 16 runs scored and zero stolen bases. Using our Last 30 Player Rater split, Nava ranks 59th among outfielders, and at the Triple-A level, he was a .280 hitter with 17 home runs and 81 RBIs per 162 games played. He's fine as a back-of-your-roster type, but I simply can't see a 30-year-old outfielder taking a significant leap forward from this.


Matthew Zimmermann (@mZimm22): Other than Jonathan Lucroy and Victor Martinez's Player Rater Past 7, A.J. Pierzynski has outperformed your Nos. 6-12 catchers in [the past] 7, 15 and 30 days on the Player Rater. #NoLove?

Pierzynski is a fine No. 2 catcher even in mixed leagues, or a starter in AL-only formats, but he doesn't offer quite enough to justify a consistent top-10 ranking in standard mixed leagues. Predictably, his home run/fly ball percentage has regressed, going from his career-high 16.7 in 2012 to 9.7 this season, explaining his season paces of 14 home runs and 51 RBIs.

He's also becoming more of a liability against left-handed pitching, batting .260/.313/.351 against them this season, his strikeout rate 20.5 percent. That's no shock considering he's 36 years old, but it's something to keep in mind, as it makes him an attractive matchup play in daily formats.

Josh Wolfe (@Josh__Wolfe): Why no love in your latest rankings for Gerardo Parra? He's the 23rd outfielder on the Player Rater [as of June 27] and [is] not in your top 70!

Parra has slipped to 30th among outfielders on our Player Rater -- seven spots in six days -- a product of his .215 batting average, two home runs and one stolen base in his past 16 contests. He's actually the No. 61 outfielder on our Last 30 split, during which time he has .280, 2 and 1 numbers in those categories.

He is a serviceable fantasy outfielder, but he's not a consistently reliable option in mixed formats, due to the fact that his best skill -- defense -- doesn't count in traditional rotisserie leagues. His speed might be his most valuable fantasy asset; that he's 6-for-15 in that department this season is a concern. I can't see him batting higher than .280 with more than six homers and steals going forward.

@TheCover3: I love it how you keep hatin' on Jarrod Saltalamacchia (still not in your top 20 catchers) and yet he keeps raking. At-bats be damned, he produces.

Actually, he has wavered between 15 and 22 the past several weeks, checking in 16th this week, the difference between players in that range negligible. Saltalamacchia is the No. 13 catcher on our Player Rater, but that's also in a terribly disappointing year for catchers. Evan Gattis, who has appeared in only 53 games and not one since June 17, still ranks eight spots ahead of him.

Saltalamacchia's problem is that he's still platoon-limited, batting only .202/.270/.343 against left-handed pitchers since the beginning of 2009, and he's on pace for only 15 home runs, 10 fewer than he hit in 2012. Like Pierzynski, he's a worthy matchup consideration, but he's also not quite assured of as many at-bats nor is he as good a hitter as Pierzynski.


Timothy Bennett (@thetwills42): Justin Upton? What do the numbers say? So frustrating. For where he was drafted, his production is [purely] awful and a season killer. I am too stubborn to believe he is a .250 hitter with all-or-nothing power numbers. Should I move on from him in a keeper league?

The numbers say Upton is struggling in two areas: pitches up in the strike zone and hard fastballs (those clocked at 93 mph and faster).

Pitches up: .167/.434/.333, 41.5 K%, 47 Miss%
Fastballs 93+ mph: .253/.349/.400, 39.5 K%, 33 Miss%

Considering Upton's history of struggles dealing with minor injuries -- his thumb problem of early 2012 comes to mind -- I think it's fair to wonder whether the hand injury that cost him two games in mid-June could have been bothering him more than he let on. He batted .188 with 35 K's in 101 at-bats during a 27-game span from May 24-June 21 then .375 with 6 K's in 24 at-bats since sitting out those two contests. Maybe rest was all he needed?

Though Upton will surely rank lower in my keeper rankings update than he did in the past, he's still one of the better assets in dynasty formats, as a 25-year-old with the prime of his career still ahead of him. I just hope he can stay a little healthier during those seasons.

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[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.
<center>#</center>Player, Team<center>Pos
Rk</center>
<center>Prv
Rk</center>
<center></center><center>#</center>Player, Team<center>Pos
Rk</center>
<center>Prv
Rk</center>
1Miguel Cabrera, Det3B1176Wilin Rosario, ColC577
2Mike Trout, LAAOF1277Jimmy Rollins, PhiSS875
3Carlos Gonzalez, ColOF2378Adam Lind, Tor1B1273
4Robinson Cano, NYY2B1779Pedro Alvarez, Pit3B1079
5Andrew McCutchen, PitOF3480Brett Gardner, NYYOF3469
6Chris Davis, Bal1B11181Martin Prado, Ari3B1178
7Joey Votto, Cin1B2682Starlin Castro, ChCSS983
8Paul Goldschmidt, Ari1B3883Salvador Perez, KCC691
9Evan Longoria, TB3B2584Eric Hosmer, KC1B1395
10David Wright, NYM3B31085Brian McCann, AtlC789
11Adam Jones, BalOF4986Elvis Andrus, TexSS1096
12Edwin Encarnacion, Tor1B41387J.J. Hardy, BalSS1184
13Prince Fielder, Det1B51288Kyle Seager, Sea3B1281
14Jose Bautista, TorOF51589Ryan Howard, Phi1B1480
15Carlos Gomez, MilOF61490Coco Crisp, OakOF3587
16Dustin Pedroia, Bos2B21691Ben Revere, PhiOF3688
17Buster Posey, SFC11892Wil Myers, TBOF3793
18Hanley Ramirez, LADSS13193Alejandro De Aza, CWSOF3892
19Jacoby Ellsbury, BosOF72194Torii Hunter, DetOF3998
20Giancarlo Stanton, MiaOF82595Aramis Ramirez, Mil3B13102
21Bryce Harper, WshOF92896Carl Crawford, LADOF40104
22Jay Bruce, CinOF101997Aaron Hill, Ari2B11108
23Adrian Beltre, Tex3B42098Jonathan Lucroy, MilC894
24Ian Kinsler, Tex2B32299Adam LaRoche, Wsh1B1590
25Jean Segura, MilSS224100Mike Napoli, BosC999
26Jason Kipnis, Cle2B430101Daniel Murphy, NYM2B12101
27Justin Upton, AtlOF1129102Victor Martinez, DetC10100
28Albert Pujols, LAA1B617103Erick Aybar, LAASS12105
29Freddie Freeman, Atl1B726104David Freese, StL3B1485
30Allen Craig, StL1B827105Kendrys Morales, Sea1B16107
31Austin Jackson, DetOF1223106Nate McLouth, BalOF41110
32Jose Reyes, TorSS334107Jayson Werth, WshOF42120
33David Ortiz, BosDH132108Shane Victorino, BosOF43106
34Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh3B538109Josh Reddick, OakOF44103
35Matt Kemp, LADOF1340110Jed Lowrie, OakSS13114
36Shin-Soo Choo, CinOF1437111Nick Markakis, BalOF45113
37Ryan Braun, MilOF1542112Alexei Ramirez, CWSSS14123
38Brandon Phillips, Cin2B541113Adam Dunn, CWS1B17129
39Ian Desmond, WshSS444114Leonys Martin, TexOF46135
40Yoenis Cespedes, OakOF1635115Brandon Belt, SF1B1897
41Yadier Molina, StLC239116Dan Uggla, Atl2B13121
42Troy Tulowitzki, ColSS549117Jhonny Peralta, DetSS15119
43Alex Rios, CWSOF1736118Jedd Gyorko, SD2B14115
44Adrian Gonzalez, LAD1B952119Nolan Arenado, Col3B15116
45Michael Bourn, CleOF1833120Jason Castro, HouC11117
46Manny Machado, Bal3B646121Melky Cabrera, TorOF47112
47Matt Holliday, StLOF1947122B.J. Upton, AtlOF48122
48Everth Cabrera, SDSS659123Paul Konerko, CWS1B19109
49Carlos Beltran, StLOF2045124A.J. Pierzynski, TexC12131
50Yasiel Puig, LADOF2160125Brandon Moss, Oak1B20111
51Joe Mauer, MinC350126Rickie Weeks, Mil2B15140
52Hunter Pence, SFOF2243127Nick Franklin, SeaSS16139
53Nelson Cruz, TexOF2354128Todd Frazier, Cin3B16137
54Jose Altuve, Hou2B653129Alcides Escobar, KCSS17127
55Michael Cuddyer, ColOF2458130Matt Wieters, BalC13126
56Domonic Brown, PhiOF2561131Michael Morse, SeaOF49118
57Starling Marte, PitOF2662132Anthony Rendon, Wsh2B16128
58Asdrubal Cabrera, CleSS782133Colby Rasmus, TorOF50134
59Alex Gordon, KCOF2765134Norichika Aoki, MilOF51136
60Mark Trumbo, LAAOF2848135Nick Swisher, CleOF52142
61Chase Utley, Phi2B766136Miguel Montero, AriC14143
62Ben Zobrist, TB2B856137Justin Morneau, Min1B21150
63Jason Heyward, AtlOF2963138Ichiro Suzuki, NYYOF53NR
64Carlos Santana, CleC464139Brett Lawrie, Tor3B17138
65Billy Butler, KC1B1086140Oswaldo Arcia, MinOF54141
66Chase Headley, SD3B755141Chris Carter, Hou1B22125
67Anthony Rizzo, ChC1B1157142Michael Brantley, CleOF55149
68Desmond Jennings, TBOF3067143James Loney, TB1B23NR
69Josh Hamilton, LAAOF3168144Logan Morrison, MiaOF56NR
70Howie Kendrick, LAA2B972145Andre Ethier, LADOF57NR
71Pablo Sandoval, SF3B871146Mark Reynolds, Cle1B24148
72Curtis Granderson, NYYOF3270147Neil Walker, Pit2B17NR
73Josh Donaldson, Oak3B974148Yasmani Grandal, SDC15146
74Matt Carpenter, StL2B1076149Nate Schierholtz, ChCOF58144
75Dexter Fowler, ColOF3351150Brad Miller, SeaSS18NR

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hacheman@therx.com
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How K rate affects hitter value

By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

The irresistible force meets the immovable object. No, I'm not talking about the Man of Steel facing General Zod, but rather two seemingly contradictory forces flummoxing fantasy baseball owners everywhere. Conventional wisdom preaches to practice patience, as by season's end, the numbers will be there. But yet, only 30-40 percent of players drafted in the first round end the season worthy of that spot. So which is it?

The answer is both, of course; the trick is in knowing when to hold them and when to fold (or trade) them. To that end, I introduced a wrinkle into my in-season projection process which was utilized in the mid-May staff rest-of-season rankings and then explained in a follow-up installment of Under the Microscope. In a nutshell, the research suggesting the sample size necessary for a current skill to be considered "real" helped set the weighted average regression in my projection engine. Some skills, most notably strikeout rate for both hitters and pitchers, stabilize a lot faster than most realize. And let's just say, that led to some controversial rankings.

Before we take a midseason look at what the system suggests will happen in the second half, a deeper understanding of the theory and philosophy fueling the projections will provide a better basis to understand my conclusions and extrapolate your own. After all, isn't that what this game is all about: interpreting data and applying it to your fantasy squads?

The first point is a reiteration of what we've talked about previously. A projection, while presented as a static set of numbers, is actually the weighted average of a series of plausible outcomes. In layman's terms, a projection is a range. A good or bad season is usually just a less likely plausible outcome.

The point I really want to focus on is the objective nature of a projection. This is probably the biggest factor leading to the consternation surrounding my mid-May rankings. It's my philosophy that a projection should be completely objective, devoid of any subjective bias. Rigorous analysis goes into designing the gears and sprockets. Once the result is generated, it is what it is, no tweaking is necessary. If there is sufficient cause for the result to be altered, that should be built into the engine and every player possessing the same characteristic will get like treatment. To subjectively massage one projection while ignoring the same impetus on another is instilling subjective bias.

In practical terms, I don't believe in adjusting the baseline if a player is thought to be a first-half or second-half player. I don't believe in altering the outcome of a perceived streaky player. The concern is the big picture. There are going to be misses. And a lot of the time, someone will have subjectively predicted the eventual outcome and suggest the prognosticator should have done the same. That's the disconnect that leads to controversy. An objective projection system is going to be wrong, and the originator of that system must accept that … at least as long the system is right a whole lot more than it's wrong.

That said, a projection system should always be a work in progress. As data collection improves, the gears and sprockets should be improved. The misses should be thoroughly investigated to discern if there is commonality that can be tested for inclusion into the system. As explained, a projection is a weighted average of a series of plausible outcomes, some more likely, some less. The goal should always be to increase the identification of the more likely outcomes while weeding out the less likely outcomes. There will always be misses. The key is using the misses to generate more hits the next time.

With that as a backdrop, the rest of the discussion is going to be using the notion that current strikeout rates stabilize faster than other metrics and hence can be a leading indicator for second-half expectations. This time the concentration will be on hitters. Next time, pitchers will be dissected "under the microscope."

What follows are hitters whose present strikeout rates exhibit the largest difference (worse and better) than was expected coming into the season. Their second-half prognosis will be examined in this context.


[h=3]Five hitters striking out more than expected[/h]Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies: Talk about two opposing forces … on one hand, Gonzalez is fanning at a career-high rate, while on the other, his home run per fly ball (HR/FB) rate is also better than it has ever been. Additionally, his fly ball rate is higher than ever, and the combination of those last two statistics has him on pace to shatter his career high of 34 homers in 2009. This, of course, assumes that he'll stay healthy, which is always a question.

Of these three factors (strikeout rate, HR/FB and fly ball percent), the one most likely to persist is the elevated whiffs, though we're at the point of the season in which Gonzalez's newfound power (both in terms of HR/FB and fly ball percent) can be considered in part real. In other words, I'm almost positive he'll continue to whiff more than usual, while I'm only "pretty sure" he'll continue to rack up homers at his current pace. And then there is the whole injury concern.

If I own Gonzalez, while I'm not actively seeking to get rid of him, I will certainly field offers. There is ample risk, with respect to both injury and performance, to be at least a little concerned. The tricky part is if CarGo's owner has him on the block. If I'm behind and need to make up some ground, and can get Gonzalez at a slight injury-prone discount, he could be a chance worth taking. Just be warned that if he gives back anything in terms of either HR/FB or fly ball percent, his average will dip 20 or so points below its usual .300 level.

Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins: Here the picture is not so rosy. Mauer's career strikeout rate is 11 percent, but he's sporting a ballooned 19 percent mark through the Twins' first 79 games. A batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .386 is propping Mauer's average up, but this is in peril since he's unlikely to sustain his current 28 percent line drive rate. The applicable research suggests it takes nearly a full season for a line drive rate to stabilize, so chances are good that Mauer's current mark regresses toward his career average of 23 percent. When this occurs, his spike in strikeouts will dip his average below .300.

Granted, every other catcher not named Buster or Yadier would be thrilled to have an average between .290 and .300, but we've come to expect more from Mauer. Trading receivers is often difficult, especially in one-catcher leagues, but if possible, I'd look to move Mauer before his average moves in the wrong direction.

Justin Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves: Upton's season to date is a perfect example of what an in-season projection engine should identify. That is, we should have seen this collapse after a hot start coming. However, in the mid-May rankings, his average ranking was seventh overall, with yours truly putting him at No. 6. The problem was, despite socking an impressive 12 April homers, he also whiffed in a whopping 27 percent of his plate appearances. This should have been captured by the engine, lowering expectations going forward. It appears, however, this was countered by too much of the power spike being captured. As explained in the beginning, the treatment must be global, so the test will be toning down the weight of in-season homers across the board to see if the overall result is more reflective of what actually occurred. As is, the influence was originally tempered, but perhaps it was not tempered enough.

Upton is continuing, as expected, to strike out at an elevated rate, and his power has waned considerably; his HR/FB rate has plummeted from an otherworldly 30 percent in April to nine percent in May all the way down to a Judy-like five percent in June. Maybe there's still a believer out there who will give him another shot, but I'm not expecting Upton to salvage his season with a stellar second half. Sure, he'll pick up the power, but the strikeouts should persist.


Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Cleveland Indians: On the surface, it appears Cabrera is performing as expected if you take out the time lost due to injury. However, upon closer inspection, he's striking out at a career-worst 24 percent rate, well above his career mark of 17 percent. A .338 BABIP is masking this, and like Mauer, Cabrera is likely to see this regress toward his career norm of .320, or maybe even lower considering his BABIP from 2010-12 was .309.

Simply put, I'd be looking to deal Cabrera while his batting average still appears to be close to what was expected.

Colby Rasmus, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: The delta between Rasmus' expected strikeout rate of 24 percent and its current 32 percent is the greatest among major league regulars. Rasmus, too, is benefiting from a fortunate BABIP of .321, well above his career .291 mark. Given the good chance that this regresses, Rasmus will witness his batting average dropping to a point in which it's a detriment in mixed leagues.


[h=3]Five hitters striking out less than expected[/h]
Nate McLouth, OF, Baltimore Orioles: Largely as a result of playing against only select southpaws, McLouth has cut down significantly on his strikeouts. His present mark of 12 percent is down from his career average of 17 percent, and well down from the 19 percent he has sported the past three campaigns. Assuming this usage pattern continues, McLouth is in line to continue to carry an average above its usual mark even if his better-than-normal .306 BABIP regresses. On top of that, McLouth is running wild; he's tied for third in the majors with 24 steals. If his owner is looking to cut bait, I'm all over McLouth, especially if I need speed.

Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oakland Athletics: There's little doubt Donaldson's .350 BABIP will come down, but when it does, an improved 17 percent strikeout rate should help soften the blow. Donaldson has always displayed a bit of pop, so the power isn't unexpected. He's not a good bet to continue hitting .316, but he should settle in a lot higher than his career average of .232 previous to the season. I'm willing to take Donaldson off the hands of any owner looking to sell high on him.

Matt Carpenter, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals: This jack-of-all-trades Redbird has basically repeated what he did last season, with better contact leading to an even better batting average. Some will look at Carpenter's .362 BABIP and assume regression, but he did carry a .346 mark last season with a line drive rate to support the elevated level, so if there's a correction, it should be minimal. In shallower mixed leagues, Carpenter's low homer rate and lack of steals could be an issue, but if you need batting average and runs, or play in a points league, Carpenter figures to have a second half very much resembling his first half.

Kyle Blanks, 1B, San Diego Padres: While it's a little early to call in the Chris Davis comparisons, Blanks and Davis do profile similarly, and Blanks is emulating the same improvement in contact enjoyed by Davis so far this season. Blanks' career strikeout rate is 29 percent, while he is whiffing at an improved 24 percent this season. Presently he's playing full-time, but he is in some danger of losing at bats when Yonder Alonso returns. However if he maintains his present pace, the Friars will have to find a spot for him so his bat stays in the lineup. If Blanks' owner is looking to hedge against a possible loss of playing time, he's certainly worth taking a chance on.


Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels: Well, lookie here! Lost in all the cat-fighting about whether Trout will regress, which he has, it's worth noting that he also has cut down on his strikeouts. So allow me to take another look at him.

Last season, Trout had a .383 BABIP, and so far this season it's a still-impressive .353. In 2012, Trout's HR/FB rate was 21.6 percent; it presently sits at 14.8 percent. There is an element of both of these metrics that is out of Trout's control, and last year's good fortune has clearly subsided. That's really all that the "regression proponents" said would happen. But those same people have to recognize that Trout is overall a better player than last season due to him making more contact. This improvement will serve to soften the blow from the aforementioned regression.


[h=3]And then there's …[/h]
Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds: This is going to be neither a mea culpa nor an excuse. It's going to be an objective review of what has transpired thus far. For those new to this space, I had Bruce ranked at No. 218 overall in my May rankings, which drew criticism from many readers.

Driving that low rank was an uncharacteristically high 30 percent strikeout rate combined with only three homers through May 15. At the time, Bruce was carrying a BABIP of .374, making his .264 average appear high, if anything. My projection engine also picked up his high whiff rate and, in part, his reduction in power. It also regressed his BABIP to its career level around .300. After the gears and sprockets did their thing, I projected Bruce to hit only .239 for the remainder of the season. Add in a little drop in power and the ranking torpedoed.

Well, right around that time, Bruce got his power stroke back; he has cranked out 15 bombs since May 17, including 10 in June. Predictably, his BABIP has regressed to .315 since mid-May, while his strikeouts have dropped to a more normal 24.4 percent. The increased power combined with fewer whiffs has resulted in a .291 average since that fateful day I filed my rankings.

The overriding opinion was that I should have recognized the ridiculousness of a 218 ranking and adjusted it since Bruce is known to be a streaky player and his power would surely bounce back. I did in fact look at Bruce's monthly splits, and he is indeed all over the place. But as I explained above, what's good for the goose is good for the gander. My philosophy is not to apply subjective bias, in this case perhaps softening the strikeout rate and increasing the power so his rest-of-season projection matched his career expectations. That's not what a projection should be, and it defeats the purpose of trying to get an early jump on identifying players to target or avoid in mid-May based on a small sample of stats. As explained, a projection engine is going to have misses. It just so happens this miss was a rather glowing one on a player anecdotally assumed to perform better. I'm willing to accept this outcome for the greater good. For every Jay Bruce or Ian Desmond (another egregious miss), there are many more players the system captures and is indeed correct on.

Now let's go back to Justin Upton. Recall that the working hypothesis is the current system does a good job of accounting for a change in contact but might be overemphasizing the power numbers to date. If that is indeed the case, Bruce's projected homers would not have dropped as much. The extra homers are also hits, so his average would have nosed up a bit. I went back and manually adjusted Bruce's home run rate to match that of his career expectations. The increased strikeouts still tempered his average, but his overall rank rose to No. 135 overall. But let's be honest, 135 would still have raised quite a few eyebrows.

This story is not over yet; we still have half a season to play. If Bruce continues along this pace, I'll have no issue admitting I was wrong. But I wouldn't be wrong because I refused to subjectively alter his projection to take into account that he is "streaky." Instead, I'd be wrong because misses happen. It's my job to regroup at the end of the season, cull together all the misses and see what could have been done to reduce that number.

And you can bet I will do that.
 

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Fowler wrist and finger injuries related

By Stephania Bell | ESPN.com

Fowler isn’t the first player this year to sustain an injury to the hand, have it labeled a bruise, then find out that it’s more than a three-to-five day problem. Diamondbacks’ second baseman Aaron Hill, Brewers’ outfielder Ryan Braun, Pirates’ second baseman Neil Walker and Indians’ outfielder Michael Bourn have all been faced with hand or finger or thumb injuries which proved to be more problematic than initially expected. Braun is still on the DL with his thumb issue and the Brewers have acknowledged it may be something he has to manage throughout the season. By placing Fowler on the DL Tuesday (retroactive to June 26), the Rockies are hoping to avoid this becoming a season-long problem.

Fowler was originally hurt June 13 when he was hit by a pitch on his right hand, on the knuckle of the ring (fourth) finger to be exact, while attempting to bunt. As is usually the case, he had pain and swelling in the area which made it impossible to grip a bat. After sitting for two games he returned to the lineup but it quickly became apparent Fowler was still struggling with his grip. He again came out of the lineup and subsequent X-rays were performed but there was no evidence of a break. Fowler again attempted a return several days later and shortly thereafter developed soreness in his wrist. According to Troy Renck of the Denver Post, Fowler felt discomfort in the wrist while swinging the bat. The natural follow-up question is whether Fowler was compensating for an ineffective grip which led to this secondary problem.

Whether coincidence or consequence, the second injury again resulted in Fowler’s removal from the lineup, followed by an MRI. The MRI reportedly came back negative but the pain in Fowler’s wrist has persisted, hence the move to the DL. Since Fowler has not played since June 25, the move can be backdated and he has the opportunity to return late next week, if he’s ready. Although there is no specific diagnosis to accompany Fowler’s injury, he was placed on the DL because of his wrist and there’s at least a little reason to be concerned. Late last year Fowler was bothered by inflammation in the same wrist; one has to wonder if it wasn’t a little easier to provoke this year with an awkward swing, perhaps precipitated by an altered grip. Naturally, the benefit of hindsight allows the question to be posed. If there wasn’t any overt change in how Fowler was swinging the bat in the days where he was trying to play after being hit by the pitch, there may have been no obvious reason to sit him out.

Those decisions matter little at the moment. The most important thing for Fowler and the Rockies now is that he allows the symptoms to settle to the point where he can grip and swing a bat normally. As a switch hitter who last season hit twice as often from the left side of the plate (where there is likely more torsion on his right wrist), Fowler’s value increases with his ability to deliver from either side. He will be eligible to return for the Rockies’ weekend series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, just before the All-Star Break. Despite how tight the NL West division standings are, it would not be a shock however if the Rockies opted to hold Fowler out through the break, particularly if there is any concern about his ability to swing effortlessly.

After all, no one wants to see this become a season-long problem.
 

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A-Rod back in action; Bailey unhittable
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By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Baseball's active home run leader participated in his first game of the season Tuesday night for the Charleston (S.C.) RiverDogs, and while Alex Rodriguez still has a way to go before he's actually manning third base for the New York Yankees, hey, it's a start. A-Rod was hitless in two at-bats as he continues to recover from left hip surgery, and while it was easy for fantasy owners to ignore him for the first three months, now is precisely the time -- not in three weeks -- to at least investigate whether he can potentially help you.

As of Tuesday night, Rodriguez was owned in 6.8 percent of ESPN standard leagues, which seems awfully low based not only on name value, but also potential production. After all, even as a shell of his former self, Rodriguez hit 18 home runs and stole 13 bases in 122 games last season. He hit a reasonable .272 along the way and finished the 2012 season as fantasy's No. 14 third baseman, ahead of such guys as Pedro Alvarez, Brett Lawrie and Jose Bautista. That's not too bad, and I admit to being surprised that the likes of Eric Chavez, Yuniesky Betancourt and Maicer Izturis, among third base-eligibles, are owned in more leagues. That will change in the coming days.

<offer>I think quite a few fantasy owners will check the headlines Wednesday -- and this blog entry -- and be surprised Rodriguez is so close to being relevant again, but it's true. There was discussion back in March that he wouldn't play at all this season, and while he's targeting July 22 – the Monday after the All-Star Game – as his return date, it's hard to know what to expect. For example, how can a 37-year-old player already in clear decline and coming off serious hip surgery expect to stay healthy, yet alone steal bases? Well, he can't. But Rodriguez has always hit for power, regardless of circumstances, so four or five home runs per the final two months, along with the requisite RBIs, really isn't asking for much. Don't judge him on his October 2012 performance, as he was clearly hurt. Now, perhaps he isn't.

While those in 10- and 12-team leagues shouldn't pull a muscle trying to add Rodriguez today, I do think there's a decent chance for relevance in the shallow leagues, so open a new browser, click on your team(s) and see who is in your DL slot(s). If it's Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun, Dexter Fowler, Everth Cabrera, Carl Crawford, Curtis Granderson, Brett Lawrie and Jedd Gyorko (surprise!), stick with them. If it's Melky Cabrera, Josh Willingham (just placed on DL on Tuesday night), Michael Morse, Angel Pagan or Yankees teammates Mark Teixeira (done), Derek Jeter and Kevin Youkilis, well, I'd rather own A-Rod on the chance he contributes double-digit home runs, 30 RBIs and a decent .275 batting average over 55 games the final eight or nine weeks. Maybe I'm blinded by optimism, but I think there's still upside here.

Box score bits (AL): Tampa Bay Rays lefty David Price came off his DL stint Tuesday with a bang, allowing three singles and striking out 10 over seven shutout innings at Houston. Price needed only 70 pitches! I almost always activate stud pitchers off DL stints, so if you didn't with Price, do so this weekend when he faces the Chicago White Sox. … What's gotten into Raul Ibanez? He smacked his 20th home run Tuesday, yet remains available in a quarter of ESPN standard leagues. Mock if you like, but only six players in all of baseball have more home runs! … More Mariners: Kendrys Morales hit two homers Tuesday and knocked in six. He's on pace for 94 RBIs, yet he's owned in barely half of ESPN's leagues. … The amazing John Lackey continues to exceed reasonable expectations, as he lowered his ERA to 2.81 with eight innings of one-run ball Tuesday. The rejuvenated right-hander has never finished a season with his ERA or WHIP this good, and given his strikeout rate, the "obvious regression is pending" line isn't necessarily accurate. … Red Sox infielder Brandon Snyder hit a three-run double Tuesday to help Lackey; Snyder is playing third base with Will Middlebrooks in the minors and Jose Iglesias (sell now!) handling shortstop for the injured Stephen Drew. Snyder, 26, has a little pop and hasn't been overwhelmed in previous big league stints. Not a bad dollar addition in AL-only formats.

Box score bits (NL): Cincinnati Reds right-hander Homer Bailey no-hit the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday, fanning nine and walking only one. Bailey entered Tuesday with one of the top-10 xFIPs among qualified starting pitchers, despite an inflated ERA, but good luck buying low now. … The vastly overrated Tim Lincecum had a typical line in losing to Bailey's Reds: He fanned eight in 5 1/3 innings, but gave up six hits, two walks and three runs. His ERA is 4.66, his WHIP 1.44, and there's no reason to expect better. … Still wondering who's closing for the Milwaukee Brewers? Jim Henderson pitched the seventh inning Tuesday. Francisco Rodriguez is the closer. … Miami Marlins first baseman Logan Morrison hit his second home run and seventh extra-base hit in 16 games since making his season debut. He's hitting .321, taking walks and driving the ball well. It's early, but LoMo looks legit. … Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Patrick Corbin suffered his first loss Tuesday, as the New York Mets tagged him for five runs in six innings. Corbin has been a sell-high choice for a month based on his record, ERA and WHIP. It's also worth noting the team's bullpen issues and the fact that the last Arizona starter to win a game was Wade Miley on June 5. … The Los Angeles Dodgers pounded out 14 hits and eight runs at Coors Field on Tuesday, yet Matt Kemp was hitless in five at-bats, with three strikeouts. It's just one game, but as with Josh Hamilton, I still see little reason to buy low.</offer>
 

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Trevor Bauer's woes; top prospects

By Jim Callis | Baseball America

There hasn't been a more frustrating prospect in fantasy baseball this year than Cleveland Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer.

After the Arizona Diamondbacks selected him third overall in the 2011 draft and signed him to a $4.45 million major league contract, Bauer was supposed to progress rapidly through the minors. He did that, reaching Double-A at the end of his first pro summer and the majors just 11 months after signing.

<offer>But Bauer's eccentricities, such as his extreme long-toss program and desire to call his own pitches, frustrated the Diamondbacks, who traded him in December to the Indians in a three-team, nine-player trade that yielded Shin-Soo Choo for the Cincinnati Reds and Didi Gregorius for the Diamondbacks.</offer>

As I noted in my first installment of our fantasy top 10 prospects for 2013 rankings, Bauer, who was ranked fourth then, was Cleveland's most talented starting pitcher option coming into the season. I wrote that he had an abundance of stuff (a mid-90s fastball with riding life, a hard curveball, a splitter, a slider and a changeup) but that he had a tendency to get too creative instead of just getting hitters out.


Both of those observations remain true today. The Indians remain in contention in the American League Central despite getting precious little contribution from Bauer. In fact, Cleveland has had just one starter remain productive and healthy all season (Justin Masterson). Bauer has received four spot starts to show what he can do, but he hasn't capitalized.

On April 6, Bauer walked seven in five innings and took a loss against the Tampa Bay Rays. He beat the Philadelphia Phillies with five frames of one-hit, scoreless ball May 1 but also walked six in that game. Twelve days later, he lost to the Yankees but turned in a quality start. His most recent opportunity came last Friday in the opener of a doubleheader against the Chicago White Sox. Bauer mysteriously opened the game pitching out of the stretch and recorded as many outs as he allowed home runs (two); he allowed five runs and threw just 27 of 49 pitches for strikes.

So it was back to Triple-A Columbus again for Bauer after that debacle. While the Indians continue to need help in their rotation, he continues to battle a lack of control and command. He has 16 walks in 17 big league innings this year, not to mention 39 in 71 1/3 Triple-A frames.

Bauer still has the stuff to help Cleveland as soon as he does a better job of deploying it. He's talented enough that he could win seven games with a 3.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 75 strikeouts in the second half of the big league season. But he's also enigmatic enough that he might not help the Indians or your fantasy team at all this year.

Let's move along to the updated top 10 fantasy prospects for the 2013 season, which still include Bauer:

[h=3]1. Nick Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers (Last week's rank: 3)[/h]
Season totals: .292/.368/.472, 11 HRs, 43 RBIs, 3 SB in 81 games at Triple-A Toledo.
Update: Castellanos was on fire throughout June, batting .361/.441/.583 with more walks (16) than strikeouts (13). That's a lot more production than the Tigers got in the big leagues from Andy Dirks (.250/.305/.303) or Avisail Garcia (.229/.269/.292).
Prognosis: The Indians won't go away in the AL Central, and the Tigers could use some help from Castellanos, who also could spell Victor Martinez at DH. Castellanos has made the necessary improvements in terms of power and plate discipline and has nothing left to prove at Triple-A.

[h=3]2. Michael Wacha, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: 4)[/h]
Season totals: 4-2 record, 2.71 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 49 K's in 63 IP (11 starts) at Triple-A Memphis.
Update: The Cardinals gave Wacha two starts off to keep his innings down in his first full pro season. He wasn't at his sharpest when he made his first start in two weeks Tuesday, allowing a minor league season-high eight hits and four runs in 5 1/3 innings, though he did strike out nine.
Prognosis: St. Louis wants Wacha to refine his fastball command and breaking ball while also trying to keep him fresh so he could contribute down the stretch. The Cardinals still don't have a solid fifth starter, and No. 4 starter Jake Westbrook has scuffled since returning from the disabled list in mid-June.

[h=3]3. Sonny Gray, SP, Oakland Athletics (Last week's rank: 5)[/h]
Season totals: 8-5 record, 2.81 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 107 K's in 102 1/3 IP (16 starts) at Triple-A Sacramento.
Update: When the A's scratched Gray from his Tuesday start, it looked like a sign that he would make his big league debut Thursday against the Chicago Cubs. Instead, Oakland opted for Dan Straily, leaving Gray behind to throw seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts Thursday against the Fresno Grizzlies.
Prognosis: Gray is one win shy of the Pacific Coast League pitching triple crown right now and has been selected to start the Triple-A all-star game for the PCL on July 17. With the way he's pitching, he could be part of the A's rotation by then.

[h=3]4. Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians (Last week's rank: 2)[/h]
Season totals: 4-2 record, 4.04 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 68 K's in 71 1/3 IP (13 starts) at Triple-A Columbus.
Update: The Indians needed an extra starter for a doubleheader last Friday and turned to Bauer, who was a disaster in his fourth big league outing of the year. Sent back to Triple-A, he rebounded by allowing just two earned runs in six innings Wednesday, though he did walk three and struck out just one.
Prognosis: Bauer still has better stuff than any member of the Cleveland rotation, but he won't help the Tribe (or your fantasy team) until he figures out how to use it. His upside is obvious and you can't give up on him, but you can't trust him for 2013 either.


[h=3]5. Grant Green, 2B, Oakland Athletics (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: .313/.371/.494, 11 HRs, 49 RBIs, 4 SB in 79 games at Triple-A Sacramento.
Update: Green has gone 2-for-16 (.125) in July, cooling off after finishing June with seven multihit games in eight contests. Signed for $2.75 million as the No. 13 overall pick in the 2009 draft, he's adapting well to second base after beginning his pro career at shortstop and then moving to the outfield.
Prognosis: The A's have a half-game lead over the Texas Rangers in the AL West. Replacing Eric Sogard with Green would give the offense a boost and help Oakland earn its second straight postseason berth.

[h=3]6. Carlos Martinez, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: 2-2 record, 2.02 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 34 K's in 35 2/3 IP (seven starts) at Triple-A Memphis; 1-0 record, 2.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9 K's in 11 2/3 IP (three starts) at Double-A Springfield.
Update: Martinez spent most of May in the Cardinals' bullpen, and St. Louis named him its minor league pitcher of the month for June after he joined its Triple-A rotation. He allowed just eight runs in six starts while fanning 30 in 32 2/3 innings.
Prognosis: The Cardinals have stretched Martinez back out, and both he and Wacha are in position to bolster the big league rotation in the second half. Signed for $1.5 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2010, Martinez has an electric arm capable of unleashing fastballs that reach 100 mph.

[h=3]7. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox (Last week's rank: 10)[/h]
Season totals: .243/.341/.405, 4 HRs, 11 RBIs, 2 SB in 20 games at Triple-A Pawtucket; .311/.407/.502, 6 HRs, 35 RBIs, 5 SB in 56 games at Double-A Portland.
Update: Promoted to Triple-A at age 20, Bogaerts had just six hits in his first nine games but has batted .300 with more walks (seven) than strikeouts (five) since. Plate discipline was the only real question about Bogaerts entering the season, and he already has set a career high in walks (46), including free passes in each of his past six games.
Prognosis: The Red Sox have more wins than any major league club, and they're playing unheralded Brandon Snyder at third base. Bogaerts played his first pro game at the hot corner Wednesday and could be playing there for Boston just as Manny Machado did for the Baltimore Orioles last year.

[h=3]8. Taijuan Walker, SP, Seattle Mariners (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: 2-0 record, 0.00 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 12 K's in 11 IP (two starts) at Triple-A Tacoma; 4-7 record, 2.46 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 96 K's in 84 IP (14 starts) at Double-A Jackson.
Update: In my mind, Walker is the best pitching prospect in the minors. He has allowed just six runs in his past six starts, including two scoreless outings after making the jump to Triple-A at the end of June. Known more as a shortstop (and a basketball player) early in his high school career, he signed for $800,000 as the 43rd overall pick in the 2010 draft. His mid-90s fastball and curveball give him two plus pitches, and he has made strides with his command this year.
Prognosis: Searching for solutions, the Mariners haven't been afraid to promote top prospects this season. They already have summoned Nick Franklin, Brad Miller and Mike Zunino, and Walker could be next, particularly if they trade some veteran starters to contenders.

[h=3]9. Archie Bradley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week's rank: 9)[/h]
Season totals: 6-3 record, 2.04 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 69 K's in 70 2/3 IP (12 starts) at Double-A Mobile; 2-0 record, 1.26 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 43 K's in 28 2/3 IP (five starts) at high Class A Visalia.
Update: Bradley worked four innings Tuesday, scattering seven hits and allowing one run. More importantly, Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers acknowledged that while he doesn't want to rush Bradley, his club might need the young pitcher to win the NL West.
Prognosis: Arizona leads its division despite getting consistent performance and health from just one starting pitcher (Patrick Corbin). Bradley's command hasn't been as sharp since he jumped to Double-A, but his premium stuff has allowed him to dominate.

[h=3]10. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: 8)[/h]
Season totals: .247/.302/.343, 5 HRs, 28 RBIs, 49 SB in 76 games at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: Hamilton injured his wrist during batting practice June 27 and hasn't played since. He's supposed to meet with Reds doctors today and could return to the lineup Saturday if everything checks out.
Prognosis: Hamilton still leads the International League with 49 steals and could swipe 10-15 bases per month in the big leagues. He must prove he can handle Triple-A pitching before getting that opportunity, but if he does, he could affect your fantasy team more than any current minor leaguer.

Called up (last week's rank): Brad Miller, SS, Mariners (1); Drew Pomeranz, SP, Colorado Rockies (6); Tyler Skaggs, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (7).
 

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Does Manny Ramirez still have relevance?
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By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

On July 22, a few days after play resumes following the All-Star break, the Texas Rangers are scheduled to host the New York Yankees on ESPN. On Wednesday, I discussed Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez being on the mend from hip surgery, and how he's targeting that date to rejoin the team. Now we have another generational slugger potentially in play by then as well, because while you were planning your Independence Day festivities, the Rangers signed the eager Manny Ramirez to a minor league deal. Yeah, that Manny Ramirez. What is this, 2005? Ramirez, though, is not hurt and he had been playing well in Asia, and wow, July 22 could be its own day of fireworks.

I’m a bit more skeptical in Ramirez contributing to the Rangers and fantasy owners than I am on Rodriguez, but not so much that I’d simply dismiss the possibility of relevance. After all, I’m not really buying the awful numbers the previous time Ramirez played in the majors, for the 2011 Tampa Bay Rays. He hit one single in 17 at-bats in five games. It’s hardly a fair sample size, ended prematurely by a pending suspension for testing positive for elevated testosterone, and I’m not going to speculate about what was or currently is in the player’s body. I do know that the year before, Ramirez posted a .870 OPS -- for comparison, there are only 22 current qualified hitters with an OPS that strong -- with most of the good stuff for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and then mainly singles and walks for the Chicago White Sox. I don’t care much what his numbers were for Taiwan’s EDA Rhinos, frankly, but they were good enough for the contending Rangers to be interested.
My first thought on the Ramirez signing was to praise the Rangers. While this move likely will bring a circus of attention, there’s precious little risk. It’s not as if it took a $10 million contract. If he hits, he can help. If he doesn’t, just move on. My second thought was about Lance Berkman, and for a longtime admirer of his, this just reinforced the notion that this isn't going to be his year. Berkman hit .319 in April, with more walks than strikeouts, and eight extra-base hits, but hasn’t done much since, with nine extra-base hits in two-plus months, more strikeouts than walks and a .237 batting average. Berkman, 37, historically has hit right-handed pitching far better than lefties. This year that’s not the case, but don’t read too much into 75 plate appearances against left-handers. He’s been periodically missing games lately due to what the team has called “general soreness,” and he has bad knees. Sadly, Berkman isn’t having the season I or the Rangers hoped for, and I’ve moved on in shallow leagues. Now the Rangers have brought in help, perhaps in a platoon, perhaps more.
If Ramirez, 41, hits for Triple-A Round Rock -- which is where he reported to duty Thursday with the goal of having him work out with the team and play in a game this weekend -- it shouldn’t be too long before the Rangers take a look at him for the DH spot, at the least against lefty pitchers. It also should be noted that for fantasy purposes, he is not outfield-eligible, but DH-only. If Ramirez and Berkman platoon, noting there are far more right-handed pitchers than lefties, it favors Berkman. Then again, he’s no lock to be healthy enough to play, and it’s possible he can play first base and Mitch Moreland sees time in the outfield. Regardless, let’s not assume Ramirez is simply the right-handed hitter in the DH platoon. It could be more. I have a bad feeling Berkman, on pace for roughly 450 at-bats, won’t approach that unless he hits better and somehow gets healthier. The Rangers, incidentally, are not in the top 10 in scoring runs, and they hit right-handers better. Versatile Jeff Baker, on the DL with a sprained right thumb, has been the team’s best option against lefties and leads the majors in home runs off them. He has eight of the club’s 21 home runs this season against lefties. Ramirez would give a lefty-heavy lineup a presence, in theory.
Add it up and I’d still be far more interested in signing Rodriguez to a fantasy roster, and would stash him in 10- and 12-team formats now. I don’t feel quite that optimistic about Ramirez, but in a deeper league, assuming you’ve got the space, as with the Rangers there’s little risk. We could see him with the Rangers later this month, adding to what has statistically been a Hall of Fame career.
Berkman went hitless with a walk in Thursday’s 5-4 win over the Seattle Mariners, doing so from the No. 6 lineup spot. Most of his at-bats have come in the No. 3 role, but that ship seems to have sailed. What was interesting about the Texas lineup against right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma was shortstop Elvis Andrus being dropped to eighth in the order. Andrus is sputtering along with a .243 batting average and .298 OBP, warranting the demotion. In fact, I think Jurickson Profar would be an improvement, but the Rangers won’t be making that change. Andrus is stealing bases but offers no power and he’s lost 50 points of OBP. Good for the Rangers for noticing. Outfielder David Murphy, who generally is more productive than he has been in 2013, and bats left-handed -- was the No. 2 hitter Thursday and did nothing. Let’s see if it sticks. It’s not good news for Andrus, who ranks among the top 10 fantasy shortstops only because of the steals and runs scored. Why not have stealing machine Leonys Martin high in the lineup? He had stolen a base in six consecutive games before Thursday.
One last Rangers offense tidbit: While Berkman and Ramirez each could be factors, those in dynasty formats should not dismiss corner infield prospect Mike Olt. His overall numbers at Round Rock are hardly impressive, but vision problems hampered him and he hit seven home runs in June, with a strong walk rate. He’s still a young power bat with the potential to help the team in September, especially against lefty pitching, or he could be used as trade bait and play sooner.
 

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Pitchers overowned due to name value
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Eric Karabell

Name value can be a dangerous thing in fantasy baseball; it often drives owners to trust a player longer than they should. Washington Nationals right-hander Dan Haren, for example, used to be a top-10 fantasy pitcher, an excellent innings-eater who delivered wins, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP on a consistent basis, regardless of which league he pitched in. Then came 2012, things fell apart and he hasn’t been able to fix them since. Haren has been on the disabled list for a sore pitching shoulder and is scheduled to come off the DL for Monday’s outing in Philadelphia on ESPN, but by no means should fantasy owners trust him.

Regardless, Haren is owned in more than a quarter of ESPN’s standard leagues, despite nasty numbers that point to a pitcher in obvious decline. For those who pay attention to walks and strikeouts, Haren does look enticing there, but it’s surely muted by 19 home runs allowed -- one off the big league lead -- and a brutal hit rate. Haren is far too hittable these days, even in the National League and against average offenses. He throws right-handed, but somehow right-handed hitters are mashing him for a .330 batting average, .960 OPS and 12 home runs, teeing off on what is generally some variation of a fastball under 90 mph. From a strict sense, Haren should lower his ERA from its current mark of 6.15, making him seem like a modest buy-low option, but this doesn’t mean he’ll be anywhere near as valuable as in the past. Haren’s closing in on 2,000 innings before turning 33 and, well, that’s a dangerous combination.
Put simply, Haren’s name value continues to exalt him to a higher standing in fantasy circles, but there’s little evidence the old reliable version -- the one with the career 3.76 ERA and 1.19 WHIP -- is returning Monday or anytime soon. Here are other notable pitchers owned in too many leagues, probably because of name value.
Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants (80.0 percent owned): Some hold out hope last season’s modest second-half turnaround is coming, but again, there’s little evidence to support this. The strikeouts just aren’t worth it.
Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers (69.6 percent): Even last year’s version was still worth owning in all leagues, but as with Haren, it’s a lot of innings in a short amount of time, and Gallardo never featured the excellent WHIP.
Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves (68.8 percent): The 37-year-old threw well in Philly this weekend, winning for the first time in two months, but ongoing neck injuries are a concern, and he’s certainly not a K guy.
Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks (36.7 percent): Forget about his amazing 2011 season, when he was 21-4, because he hasn’t been close to that since. Kennedy brings strikeout potential, but he’s putting way too many men on base.
Andy Pettitte, New York Yankees (16.2 percent): I admit to being on board back in March, but it’s been a month since he threw more innings in a game than hits allowed, and obviously his durability is hardly pristine.
Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics (17.4 percent): Speaking of durability, most people think the only options with this left-hander are injury or strong performance. Before the former occurred multiple times this season, he proved the latter was no given with a 6.21 ERA. Don’t be waiting on him in 10- or 12-team leagues.
Tommy Hanson, Los Angeles Angels (12.8 percent): Still only 26, Hanson was supposed to be an ace. Then he tore a rotator cuff, the Braves gave up on him -- a sure sign to move on, frankly -- and he’s been below average since the start of 2012. Don’t buy on Hanson when he comes off the DL in a few weeks.
Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland Indians (11.6 percent): Honestly, I’m perplexed why fantasy owners continue to defend this wild right-hander. It’s been more than a month since he even made it through six innings of an outing, as control remains a major problem.
Ricky Nolasco, Los Angeles Dodgers (11.3 percent): Nolasco, scheduled to make his Dodgers debut Tuesday, has an unsightly career ERA of 4.44. One would think moving to a better team in a pitcher’s park would help, but that’s exactly what Nolasco wants you to think! Pitchers get hit in L.A. as well.
Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers (6.5 percent): Would you believe he’s still only 24? As for his numbers, there are reasons for optimism, notably in strikeout rate and xFIP, but this is the AL version of Nolasco until he proves otherwise. Something always seems to go wrong.
 

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[h=1]Bits: Ruf gets chance; Hefner pitching well
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[/h]Eric Karabell

Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard smacked a long home run off Atlanta Braves lefty Paul Maholm on Friday night, and it understandably sent some fantasy owners into a tizzy on Twitter. After all, Howard used to be one of baseball's preeminent sluggers, but he hasn't been so special since tearing his Achilles tendon in the 2011 playoffs. While we can all mock his worth in relation to his hefty contract, the threat of big-time power is enticing to Phillies fans and fantasy owners. Alas, we won't see Howard hit another blast for a while; he was placed on the 15-day disabled list with knee troubles just before Saturday's game, and a Monday MRI could spell a pending surgery.

Howard was owned in 100 percent of ESPN standard leagues before the weekend -- that figure has quickly dropped -- mainly because even as bad as he has been, he has hit 25 home runs and knocked in 99 runs since the start of 2012, covering 151 games and 609 plate appearances. That's essentially one season. Even as a shell of his former MVP self, Howard has still hit for power. Should you hold on to him in 10- or 12-team formats? I'm skeptical Howard will be back in the Phillies' lineup this month, especially as the team's season further slips away, but sure, if his knee is healthy, there is modest power upside, all razzing aside. If you're taking a chance on the likes of Ike Davis and Chris Carter in fantasy, Howard is a similar option, at least in theory. In real life he is, of course, untradeable and signed for -- gulp! -- three more seasons, so the Phillies want him healthy. Howard has flaws in performance and health, but he can still hit home runs

Another guy who can hit home runs is Howard's replacement at first base, at least for now. Darin Ruf started at Howard's first base spot Sunday and doubled, walked and scored a pair of runs in a 7-3 win. Ruf's name should appear regularly in future lineups as well, though it's premature to call him a viable option in 10- or 12-team leagues. After all, after hitting 38 home runs for Double-A Reading last season, plus a few more in a brief late-season stint for the Phillies, this season hasn't gone nearly as well. I saw Ruf play for Triple-A Lehigh Valley recently, and he didn't impress. For the season, Ruf is hitting .266 with only seven home runs for the Iron Pigs, dropping more than 200 points of slugging percentage and striking out in a quarter of his at-bats along the way. At 26, he's certainly no prospect, and he also doesn't bring much defensive value, but power is power, and he has shown an ability to provide it. Just don't presume it's coming on a regular basis, and it's possible the Phillies are just shopping him in a trade anyway. Bottom line: Ruf isn't a good outfielder, and Howard isn't going anywhere.

Box score bits (NL): San Diego Padres shortstop Everth Cabrera came off the DL from a hamstring injury Friday night, then went 1-for-14 with nary a stolen base this weekend. Buy low. Cabrera still leads the NL in stolen bases, and he takes walks. He's a legit player. … New York Mets right-hander Jeremy Hefner isn't getting much love in standard leagues -- he's available in more than 75 percent of them -- but he won Sunday with seven innings of two-hit, one-run ball. Hefner has allowed one earned run in six of seven starts. … The Mets brought first baseman Ike Davis back this weekend, and while he had Sunday off, he had three hits and four walks combined between Friday and Saturday. If desperate for power, there are far worse gambles. … The Pittsburgh Pirates welcomed right-hander A.J. Burnett back from the DL Sunday with five effective innings against the Chicago Cubs. Burnett threw only 66 pitches, but he should get a normal workload moving ahead. His legit season numbers warrant ownership in all leagues. … Pirates outfielder Jose Tabata, who has burned many a fantasy owner in the past, hit two doubles and drew two walks Sunday, capping a nice week (7-for-17) since coming off the DL. Tabata, only 24, has proven bits of relevance in the past, so keep an eye on him.

Box score bits (AL): Cleveland Indians outfielder Michael Brantley blasted two home runs Sunday, knocking in five. Brantley is slugging less than .400, but with seven home runs and eight steals he's making a case to be owned in more leagues. … Detroit Tigers right-hander Doug Fister has been streaky in the past, but his current run is certainly not positive; Fister gave up six runs to the Indians on Sunday, matching his poor six-run outing from earlier in the week in Toronto. Fister had allowed five home runs all year, but the Indians smacked three. I'd still buy low here. Fister is pretty safe, unless he's hurt. … Minnesota Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe hit his ninth home run Sunday, a two-run blast off Toronto Blue Jays All-Star lefty Brett Cecil. (It's true, Cecil made the All-Star team.) Plouffe, who is readily available in standard leagues, smacked a legit 24 home runs last season, and 11 came in June. He's streaky, too. With three home runs in eight days, a good streak is pending. … Manny Ramirez made his debut for Triple-A Round Rock Sunday, hitting a single and drawing a walk in four plate appearances. There's no timetable for promotion to the Texas Rangers, nor a guarantee he'll hit, but the path looks a bit cleaner now that Lance Berkman has been placed on the DL. Berkman can be dropped. … Right-hander Joakim Soria made his Rangers and season debut Sunday, tossing a perfect sixth inning. It's feasible that Soria, the former Kansas City Royals closer now healthy after his second Tommy John surgery, assumes the eighth-inning role soon, becoming next in line for saves after Joe Nathan. But Nathan is pretty safe.
 

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[h=1]Trade deadline watch: Pitchers[/h][h=3]Which notable hurlers could see their values change if dealt in upcoming days?[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

When you look at the baseball calendar -- the regular-season one, that is -- there are really only two times when player values tend to shift rapidly:

• The first is the first few weeks of April, as roles become crystallized and we get our first "real" glimpses of players in the given year.

• The second, and upcoming one, is the annual midsummer trade deadline, which this year arrives on Wednesday, July 31.

It's an exciting time for fantasy owners, when a fresh set of new opportunities for players presents themselves in these next three-plus weeks. That's not to say that players can't change teams after that date -- they merely have to clear waivers first -- but the most intriguing moves annually tend to happen in late July.

This isn't to say that you should embrace wild speculation, panic because your players are in jeopardy of plummeting in value, or overrate every trade that does happen. History shows us that the trade deadline can also be one of the most overstated events of the fantasy baseball season, and often, it's the lesser names impacted by blockbuster trades or the lesser deals themselves that generate the headlines. Just using last year as an example, while everyone talked about Hanley Ramirez and Zack Greinke getting traded -- neither experiencing any noticeable change in value -- it was Greg Holland, Marco Scutaro and Chris Johnson who were three of the biggest winners as a result of deadline deals.

Consider today's column an effective "primer" for player value shifts at the 2013 trade deadline. Ranked below are 10 names rumored on the block, in the order in which such a deal might impact the player himself or those surrounding him. This doesn't mean you should race to radically adjust your team in anticipation of a possible deal; it's merely a warning to formulate your plans.

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Garza

[h=3]1. Matt Garza, SP, Chicago Cubs[/h]

A free agent at year's end, and one earning $10.25 million this season, Garza is highly likely to be traded in the next 22 days, no matter what the Cubs would have you believe. The reason is simple: He's injury-prone, having spent time on the disabled list in each of the past three seasons, and he continues to put strain on his elbow by throwing such a high rate of sliders (23.4 percent from 2011-13). It makes much more sense for the team to cash in his chip than lock him up, especially since they might not be competitive for another couple of years.

Oddly, a trade probably wouldn't impact Garza much in terms of ERA/WHIP -- with the possible exception of extreme hitters' environments like Texas, Boston or Baltimore -- considering his track record. Check out his home/road splits during his two-and-a-half years with the Cubs:

Home: 27 GS, 21 QS, 11 W, 2.70 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .102 ISO, 9.7 HR/FB%
Road: 32 GS, 16 QS, 9 W, 4.24 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, .153 ISO, 10.9 HR/FB%

Now compare those to his previous two years (2009-10) with the Tampa Bay Rays:

Home: 32 GS, 22 QS, 13 W, 3.36 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .141 ISO, 8.5 HR/FB%
Road: 32 GS, 15 QS, 10 W, 4.53 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .182 ISO, 10.9 HR/FB%

It seems that run support might be the most significant change to Garza's value as a result of a trade. That doesn't necessarily mean a boost to his current 5.00 runs per nine of support; it just increases his chances of maintaining that number, as the Cubs have averaged 4.11 runs per game this season. But that matters, as slightly better win potential at no expense to ERA/WHIP/K's is a plus. It could result in a rise of as many as eight spots (five among starters) in the ranks below; but remember that no trade is going to diminish any of Garza's injury risk.

Should Garza -- and/or rotation-mates Travis Wood or Carlos Villanueva -- be moved, Jake Arrieta, recently acquired in the Scott Feldman deal, might benefit. A move to the National League improved Arrieta's chances of success, and deep NL-only owners might want to stash him as a future matchups candidate.

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Rodriguez

[h=3]2. Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Milwaukee Brewers[/h]

Could this signing have worked out better for the Brewers? K-Rod signed a minor league deal with a big league salary between $2 and 2.5 million on April 17, was in the majors 29 days later, and was closing games eight days after that. In his 22 appearances, he has shown no reason for anyone to believe he can't still close, or at least pitch at a high level in a late-inning role, meaning the Brewers got a valuable trade chip for practically nothing.

That said, he's high on this list for one reason: If traded, he probably will not close for his new team … except in rare instances like that of the Detroit Tigers. Every summer has such examples of closers-turned-setup men via trade: Jonathan Broxton (2012), Octavio Dotel (2010), George Sherrill (2009), Jon Rauch (2008) and Rodriguez himself (2011). In fantasy, the loss of saves represents a precipitous drop in value, so the danger here is real. K-Rod might be a top-15 fantasy closer for up to the next 22 days, but he might then have no business being on a mixed-league roster for the season's final 50 days.

A K-Rod trade makes perfect sense considering the Brewers have two viable replacements behind him, Jim Henderson and John Axford, though Axford might also be on the trade block. Here's a not-so-crazy thought: K-Rod gets traded coming out of the All-Star break, affording Axford 13 days to boost his trade stock in the closer role, only to be traded on July 31 to clear the gig for Henderson. Look at Axford's recent performance, and you'll see why he's an especially intriguing NL-only stash:

Past 26 games: 8 holds, 0.40 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 22 K's in 22 2/3 innings

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Johnson

[h=3]3. Josh Johnson, SP, Toronto Blue Jays[/h]

This one assumes that the Blue Jays decide to be sellers rather than buyers in the next three weeks, but as things stand, the team resides 9½ games out of the American League East lead and six in the wild-card hunt, so any sort of upcoming slump might push them into the former group. Johnson is signed only through this season, earning $13.75 in 2013, so he'd be an obvious trade candidate.

Who wouldn't like to see Johnson out of both the AL East -- which, despite absorbing criticism for not being as loaded offensively, still has seen the Blue Jays' four rivals combining to average 4.64 runs per game -- and Toronto's Rogers Centre, the third-most hitter-friendly venue in terms of home runs and fourth-most in terms of runs scored, per our 2013 MLB Park Factors page? Sure, Johnson has three of his four quality starts and a 3.67 ERA at home this season, but his 1.46 WHIP, .174 isolated power and 14.9 home run/fly ball percentage there say the venue has hardly been kind to him. A return to the National League, as he has a 3.13 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in his career against NL foes, would probably be for the best.

Any Johnson -- or R.A. Dickey or Mark Buehrle -- trade might have an additional fantasy benefit: It could result in the arrival of one of their top pitching prospects, Marcus Stroman, the No. 22 overall pick in the 2012 draft and a pitcher who has a 3.26 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 10 starts for Double-A New Hampshire.

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Gregg

[h=3]4. Kevin Gregg, RP, Chicago Cubs[/h]
Like Rodriguez, Gregg faces the danger of being more attractive to his acquiring team in a setup capacity than as a closer, and his lifetime 1.37 WHIP tells you a bit about his fantasy potential in the former. And like Rodriguez, Gregg signed a minor league deal with his team, only to parlay it into a big league closing gig in which he has excelled: 15-for-17 in save chances with a 1.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 31 appearances. A mechanical change made much of the difference; his fastball has new life and if we knew he'd remain the Cubs' closer all year, he'd probably warrant top-20 closer consideration. Still, we not only don't know that he will, we know that he's highly likely to be dealt, partly because the Cubs, noncontenders, don't need a closer and partly because he has a cheap, attractive contract.

That's why Blake Parker, who has two holds, a 2.25 ERA and 26.2 percent strikeout rate in his first 14 appearances of 2013, has become a sleeper in NL-only and deep mixed leagues in recent days. Parker saved the Cubs' June 29 extra-inning win, only hours after manager Dale Sveum tabbed him a candidate to replace Gregg. Considering his competition is James Russell, a left-hander whom Sveum prefers in a setup capacity, Parker has a good chance at a sneaky second half.

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Gallardo

[h=3]5. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers[/h]
Ah, the age-old question: Can a trade cure a multiyear trend of declining velocity and strikeout rates? Logically, no, and that's the obstacle for Gallardo, whose 18.6 percent K rate this season represents easily his worst at any single-season stop during his professional career, and whose 90.7 mph average fastball velocity represents nearly a 2 mph decline from his 2011 average (92.6).

A change in coaching could help, a mere change of scenery might help, but a big plus for Gallardo might be getting out of hitter-friendly Miller Park, where he has a 5.14 ERA this season. The problem, however, is that he has a limited no-trade clause of 10 teams, most of which are the contenders who would be interested in him. The Arizona Diamondbacks are one rumored suitor who isn't on that list, but Chase Field wouldn't represent much of an improvement in his surroundings. But hey, at least it'd be a change for Gallardo … and at least change would offer some glimmer of hope of turning around his otherwise lost season.

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Norris

[h=3]6. Bud Norris, SP, Houston Astros[/h]

Go ahead and point out his absurd career home/road splits, especially since 2011:

Home: 39 GS, 24 QS, 12 W, 2.71 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .129 ISO, 8.2 HR/FB%
Road: 39 GS, 21 QS, 7 W, 5.42 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .181 ISO, 11.2 HR/FB%

Norris' owners might prefer he remain right where he is, where he'd be a reliable matchups choice in his home games. That said, what if he's merely a pitcher who needs a more spacious home environment, and whose value could spike if he lands in a division light on offense? Norris is extraordinarily reliant upon his slider, his primary source of strikeouts, as his fastball is more hittable (he tends to serve up a high rate of fly balls with it), so his skills hint that'd be a smart destination. A place like San Francisco's AT&T Park might be a dream fit, especially if you consider that left-handed hitters have always hit him better than righties.

Norris is another pitcher for whom the story is as much about his potential replacement as it is himself. Jarred Cosart, who has a 3.29 ERA and 93 K's in 93 innings over 18 games (17 starts) for Triple-A Oklahoma City, might be worth tucking away in AL-only formats.

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Peavy

[h=3]7. Jake Peavy, SP, Chicago White Sox[/h]

He'll be somewhat difficult to trade, due to his $14.5 million salary this season, $15 million in 2014 and a vesting player option for 2015 that requires another 333 innings by the end of next year, but the White Sox will sure try. Frankly, fantasy owners should be thrilled if they succeed; he'd almost assuredly receive more run support elsewhere and he'd be freed of a poor venue for his skill set. To the former point, the White Sox this season have averaged 3.65 runs per game, second-worst in the majors. To the latter, Peavy has a 43.6 percent fly-ball rate since 2010, serving up 37 home runs in 43 starts between this and last season. This one's much more about the potential gain in Peavy's fantasy value, which could be as much as 15-20 spots among starting pitchers in the right landing spot, than it is the likelihood that he's actually traded.

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Veras

[h=3]8. Jose Veras, RP, Houston Astros[/h]
Veras is the third closer on this list, and like the previous two, he's an attractive trade candidate due to his affordable salary ($1.85 million plus a $3.25 million option for 2014 with a $150,000 buyout) and solid performance to date, but also one whose value is threatened by a possible demotion to setup work with his acquiring team. He's actually the least appealing fantasy option in a setup role; he has four losses and three blown saves this year, and flashing back to his 2011 in that role, he blew seven saves and had a so-so 3.80 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. That's just not enough to impact our game. Veras is precisely the type of pitcher who finds himself dropped in every mixed league the instant he's traded.

But who might close for the Astros should Veras go? A committee appears the most likely scenario, with Jose Cisnero, Josh Fields and Wesley Wright top candidates, but Cisnero is the one who warrants the most attention. His command might be sketchy -- he has walked 11.5 percent of hitters he has faced in his professional career -- but he also has a mid-90s fastball that serves a legitimate strikeout pitch. Cisnero is AL-only sleeper material, though, as you can't save a game your team doesn't win.

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Papelbon

[h=3]9. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Philadelphia Phillies[/h]

He's the one closer on the list who is highly likely to serve in the same role for his new team, and it's all because of his contract: He's owed $13 million this year and in each of the next two, then has a $13 million option for 2016 that vests with 55 games finished in 2015 or 100 in 2014-15 combined. Papelbon is paid like a closer, so his acquiring team will surely do so with the intent to have him close. That's if any team is willing to take on his contract, which is no guarantee.

But this is as much about who might replace Papelbon in Philadelphia: Even if it's initially a committee, Justin De Fratus warrants an NL-only look. A closer in the lower levels, De Fratus managed a 3.05 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8.99 K's per nine innings ratio during his minor league career.

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Lohse

[h=3]10. Kyle Lohse, SP, Milwaukee Brewers[/h]
Could the Brewers really move Lohse, who is in the first year of a three-year, $33 million contract? Believe it, as he makes every bit as much sense a trade target as his rotation-mate, Gallardo, who will earn $500,000 more than Lohse in 2014. Most of Lohse's gains of 2012 have remained evident: His walk rate of 4.4 percent in 2012 has dropped to 4.1 percent this year; he has a WHIP of 1.18, up from 1.09; and his FIP is a respectable 3.47, after standing at 2.86 last year. Most of the cause of his lower fantasy value comes down to two things: the difference in ballpark factors between St. Louis' Busch Stadium and Milwaukee's Miller Park, and what has been less run support than he received with the St. Louis Cardinals. In the right situation, Lohse might have a legitimate shot at top-40-starter value.

[h=3]Other candidates to be traded[/h]
Steve Cishek, Miami Marlins: The No. 1 pitcher on our Player Rater the past 30 days, Cishek has erased any memory of his poor start to the season. He's another closer in jeopardy of ending up a setup man if traded.
Phil Hughes, New York Yankees: He's an extreme fly-baller susceptible to the long ball at bandbox Yankee Stadium. Elsewhere, his stock might soar.
Joe Saunders, Seattle Mariners: He has a 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in eight starts at Safeco Field. Almost anywhere else, you shouldn't touch him.
Oliver Perez, Seattle Mariners: He has thrived in a setup/occasional closer role in Seattle, but there's little doubt he'd be slotted in a firm setup role most anywhere else he lands.
Shaun Marcum, New York Mets: He has one win in 12 starts, and any gain in that department would be offset by his no longer pitching in one of the game's best pitching venues, Citi Field (1.19 WHIP there).
Jason Vargas, Los Angeles Angels: He has pitched better than anyone has given him credit for for multiple years now, and perhaps a move to the NL, or a pitching-friendly AL park, would help lower his ERA/WHIP.

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[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.
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1Clayton Kershaw, LADSP1176Kevin Gregg, ChCRP2274
2Adam Wainwright, StLSP2277Alex Cobb, TBSP5576
3Max Scherzer, DetSP3478Tommy Milone, OakSP5679
4Felix Hernandez, SeaSP4579Joaquin Benoit, DetRP2385
5Yu Darvish, TexSP5380Travis Wood, ChCSP5786
6Justin Verlander, DetSP6781Paul Maholm, AtlSP5875
7Cliff Lee, PhiSP7682Huston Street, SDRP2478
8Stephen Strasburg, WshSP8883Ricky Nolasco, LADSP5996
9Madison Bumgarner, SFSP9984A.J. Griffin, OakSP6082
10Gio Gonzalez, WshSP101085Rafael Betancourt, ColRP2592
11David Price, TBSP112286Tom Wilhelmsen, SeaRP26142
12Matt Harvey, NYMSP121187Mike Leake, CinSP6173
13Jordan Zimmermann, WshSP131388Koji Uehara, BosRP2781
14Craig Kimbrel, AtlRP11289Gerrit Cole, PitSP6283
15Chris Sale, CWSSP141690Yovani Gallardo, MilSP6369
16Aroldis Chapman, CinRP21591Jhoulys Chacin, ColSP6493
17Mariano Rivera, NYYRP31792Brandon Beachy, AtlSP6594
18Mat Latos, CinSP151893Corey Kluber, CleSP66106
19Kenley Jansen, LADRP41994Jeff Locke, PitSP67114
20Zack Greinke, LADSP162195Wade Miley, AriSP68126
21CC Sabathia, NYYSP172096Jose Veras, HouRP2899
22Homer Bailey, CinSP182497Zack Wheeler, NYMSP6990
23Jered Weaver, LAASP193098Jorge De La Rosa, ColSP70103
24Cole Hamels, PhiSP202899Andrew Cashner, SDSP7187
25Matt Cain, SFSP2114100Ryan Dempster, BosSP7298
26Hiroki Kuroda, NYYSP2225101Tony Cingrani, CinSP73101
27Mike Minor, AtlSP2327102Francisco Rodriguez, MilRP29137
28Jason Grilli, PitRP526103Tim Hudson, AtlSP7495
29Matt Moore, TBSP2441104Johnny Cueto, CinSP7591
30Matt Garza, ChCSP2534105Jim Henderson, MilRP3097
31James Shields, KCSP2629106J.J. Putz, AriRP3188
32Rafael Soriano, WshRP633107Tim Lincecum, SFSP76123
33Jeff Samardzija, ChCSP2723108Rick Porcello, DetSP77111
34Greg Holland, KCRP736109Wandy Rodriguez, PitSP7889
35Joe Nathan, TexRP835110John Axford, MilRP32115
36Hisashi Iwakuma, SeaSP2831111Drew Smyly, DetRP33113
37Patrick Corbin, AriSP2940112Jacob Turner, MiaSP79116
38Shelby Miller, StLSP3032113Miguel Gonzalez, BalSP80107
39Lance Lynn, StLSP3137114Bud Norris, HouSP81130
40Jonathan Papelbon, PhiRP938115Dan Straily, OakSP82140
41Fernando Rodney, TBRP1049116Jeremy Hefner, NYMSP83NR
42Glen Perkins, MinRP1142117Eric Stults, SDSP84105
43Anibal Sanchez, DetSP3248118Trevor Rosenthal, StLRP34108
44Clay Buchholz, BosSP3343119Mark Melancon, PitRP35104
45Jim Johnson, BalRP1244120Kyle Gibson, MinSP85110
46Edward Mujica, StLRP1347121David Robertson, NYYRP36117
47Julio Teheran, AtlSP3446122Dillon Gee, NYMSP86118
48C.J. Wilson, LAASP3552123Ian Kennedy, AriSP87119
49Addison Reed, CWSRP1439124Rex Brothers, ColRP37109
50Jose Fernandez, MiaSP3655125Jason Vargas, LAASP88131
51Bobby Parnell, NYMRP1559126Phil Hughes, NYYSP89127
52Sergio Romo, SFRP1650127Heath Bell, AriRP38125
53Hyun-Jin Ryu, LADSP3757128Andy Pettitte, NYYSP90122
54R.A. Dickey, TorSP3854129Felix Doubront, BosSP91133
55Francisco Liriano, PitSP3965130Scott Feldman, BalSP92NR
56Grant Balfour, OakRP1762131Hector Santiago, CWSSP93136
57Doug Fister, DetSP4051132Edwin Jackson, ChCSP94141
58Casey Janssen, TorRP1853133Ivan Nova, NYYSP95NR
59Jarrod Parker, OakSP4156134Tyler Clippard, WshRP39147
60A.J. Burnett, PitSP4263135Trevor Cahill, AriSP96102
61Jon Lester, BosSP4360136Kyle Kendrick, PhiSP97112
62Derek Holland, TexSP4466137Yoervis Medina, SeaRP40121
63Ernesto Frieri, LAARP1967138Brandon McCarthy, AriSP98129
64Kris Medlen, AtlSP4545139Vinnie Pestano, CleRP41124
65Jeremy Hellickson, TBSP4672140Erasmo Ramirez, SeaSP99148
66Chris Perez, CleRP2071141Paco Rodriguez, LADRP42134
67John Lackey, BosSP4777142David Hernandez, AriRP43132
68Ervin Santana, KCSP4861143Jonathan Pettibone, PhiSP100NR
69Bartolo Colon, OakSP4970144Brett Anderson, OakSP101146
70Josh Johnson, TorSP5058145Alexi Ogando, TexSP102135
71Jake Peavy, CWSSP5180146Brandon Morrow, TorSP103128
72Steve Cishek, MiaRP2183147Blake Parker, ChCSP104NR
73Chris Tillman, BalSP5268148Carlos Martinez, StLSP105144
74Kyle Lohse, MilSP53100149Andrew Bailey, BosRP44143
75Justin Masterson, CleSP5464150Tyler Skaggs, AriSP106NR

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Evaluating the Kemp-less Dodgers outfield
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Eric Karabell

The Los Angeles Dodgers' crowded outfield problem was solved Monday, but not in a good way; Matt Kemp was placed on the disabled list because of a sore left shoulder. Fantasy owners are probably cursing Kemp for this setback, but honestly, the way he had played this season, now you don't have to debate whether to play him over any number of available options. A few weeks off is a good thing in this case, so embrace this roster move. Sure, Kemp hit a few home runs at Coors Field last week to raise hopes that he was back, but he wasn't. Now we don't know precisely when he'll be back, but this was already looking like a lost season, and even if he returns later in July, I'm going to be skeptical he'll hit for average and power.

As such, even though we're barely halfway through the season, it's certainly reasonable to label Kemp as fantasy's biggest bust. After all, the other nine players that were first-round choices in ESPN average live drafts are all worth relying on; even the disappointing Albert Pujols is on pace for 24 home runs and 94 RBIs. Justin Verlander isn't exactly hurting his fantasy owners. Kemp, though, is hitting .254 and is on pace for seven home runs, 45 RBIs and 17 stolen bases, and he was the sixth overall pick. Among the 149 hitters you'll find ranked ahead of him on the ESPN Player Rater are, incredibly, Vernon Wells, Jose Iglesias and John Buck.

<OFFER>We have plenty of time to debate the other nominees for biggest disappointment of the season, but as of now, Kemp, based mainly on draft position and gaudy expectations, would top the list, with Josh Hamilton, Jason Heyward, Cole Hamels, Starlin Castro and others being in the conversation. I want to be positive and say that Kemp will return later this month and turn his season around, but I just don't believe it. But let's turn this negative into a potential positive, shall we? The awesome Yasiel Puig, who I am absolutely a believer in, wasn't going to lose playing time, but now Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier also don't have to worry. Oh, perhaps one of them will sit on occasion for Scott Van Slyke versus a left-hander, but let's look at Crawford and Ethier more closely, because they are established veterans and the Kemp injury aids them, in theory.

On Monday night, Crawford led off while playing left field, Puig again hit second and handled right field, and Ethier was the center fielder and No. 5 hitter. Crawford, who missed a month with a hamstring injury, was activated from the disabled list Friday, a few hours before Kemp reinjured his shoulder. Crawford didn't have the most productive weekend, going hitless in 11 at-bats while striking out four times, and he looked tentative at the plate. On Monday, he struck out three times in five hitless at-bats. Perhaps his hamstring is giving him pause, or he just needs to recapture his swing. While I was pessimistic about Crawford staying healthy this season and being productive, there was nothing wrong with his numbers through 50 games; a month ago, he was on a nice pace for roughly 15 home runs and 30 stolen bases. It was a small sample, but Crawford was back to drawing a reasonable numbers of walks -- he rarely walked while with the Boston Red Sox -- and his speed looked fine. However, my main issue with Crawford is his health. I just don't trust him to stay injury-free. It's unrealistic to expect Crawford to participate in 80 percent of the team's remaining games, but he should be a top-50 outfielder when healthy, still capable of approaching the mid-teens in power and at least 25 stolen bases, but I wouldn't count on it.

Ethier is the player many people don't seem to view correctly. Is he having a good season? Of course not, but the 14th-round pick in ESPN ADP is a career .288 hitter who provided 20 home runs, 89 RBIs and 79 runs scored a season ago. While Crawford is owned in all leagues, Ethier is available in more ESPN leagues than he's owned in, making him the buy-low option. The Kemp injury guarantees him playing time -- it was unlikely the Dodgers would be able to trade him -- and Ethier can still do damage to right-handed pitching, where he has more walks than strikeouts. Ethier is also off to a nice start in July, entering Monday hitting .391 with a few doubles, and on Monday, his sweet swing yielded three more hits and an RBI. Last season, Ethier hit .325 with power against right-handed pitching. He also hit six home runs in September. Among the outfielders owned in more ESPN leagues than Ethier, those I would drop for him include Daniel Nava, Gerardo Parra, Melky Cabrera, Colby Rasmus and Brandon Moss, and I admit I've given up on B.J. Upton turning his ridiculous season around.
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Olney: No chance of Garza extension
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By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com

We have been hearing for weeks that the Chicago Cubs were looking to deal Matt Garza well in advance of the July 31 deadline, but Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer may be having a change of heart.
<OFFER>
While it is still likely Garza will be moved, Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com reported Monday afternoon the team and Garza have discussed some contract options that would keep him in Chicago. Rogers' source claims the sides haven't had serious discussions about a long-term deal but still haven't ruled it out.

Garza later confirmed the report, claiming the chances of a trade are the same as him signing an extension. "Trades are just rumors. Extension talk I'm a part of. I know for a fact where it's at. It's always a possibility. Fifty-fifty,” Garza told Rogers.

But, in Tuesday's Video Blog, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney says there is almost no chance of Garza getting a long-term extension. "The Cubs are counting on getting as many of the pitching prospects they can possibly get, and Garza is a great chip for them," Olney says.

Garza improved to 4-0 with a 0.97 ERA over his last five starts in Monday’s win over the White Sox and may be at the height of his marketability.

Some executives also are skeptical of the extension talks. “Theo and Jed won't cave. They will play this thing out until they get what they want. He's too valuable to not trade," an AL executive tells David Kaplan of CSN Chicago.

As for trade partners, Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reports the Rangers had two scouts at Garza's outing Monday while the Indians, Pirates, Blue Jays and Padres had one each.

If Garza does stay put, that could drive up the market for potentially available starters such as the Astros' Bud Norris or Jake Peavy of the White Sox.
 

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What to expect from Grant Green
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By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Entering Sunday, the Oakland Athletics hadn’t received any home runs from their second base position, fueling speculation that a trade for someone like Philadelphia Phillies option Chase Utley was a possibility. While Eric Sogard finally hit one out while playing second base on Sunday, it didn’t stop the organization from promoting 2009 first-round pick Grant Green for Monday’s game. His debut in Pittsburgh was quiet, as the 25-year-old struck out twice in three hitless at-bats, but fantasy owners desperate for middle infield pop need to watch his progress, for there is upside.

Green was hitting .318 with power at Triple-A Sacramento, including seven home runs and a 1.055 OPS in June, and while Pacific Coast League numbers often bear little resemblance to those in the majors, at least Green had made progress with his walk rate. He’s going to swing and miss, but it’s nice that Green, a right-handed hitter, was doing a fine job against right-handed pitching, with a .306/.362/.484 slash line. His OPS against lefty pitchers was .986, so there’s really no issue there. It’s possible the lefty-hitting Sogard could spell Green against the tougher right-handers, but Green should get the next few weeks to prove himself before the trade deadline, at the least.Fantasy owners should expect occasional pop, but certainly less than a .300 batting average. The No. 8 Oakland prospect by colleague Keith Law from March, Green wasn’t drafted as a second baseman, but from what I saw of him in the Arizona Fall League and media reports, it’s clear he can handle the spot. It wouldn’t be asking too much for Green to deliver double-digit home runs and a .250 batting average the rest of this season, and he’s capable of stealing a handful of bases, even if he continues to bat at the bottom of what is a deep lineup.
While it’s true I’m cautious when it comes to expecting rookies to thrive, I’m always willing to offer a bench spot for a promising option just in case he sticks; this isn’t likely to be the next Anthony Rendon or Jedd Gyorko among young second basemen, but he’s certainly worth a speculative own in AL-only formats and deep mixed leagues, as opposed to the slumping Kelly Johnson, scrappy Brian Dozier, brittle Brian Roberts (sorry, I want to believe, but can’t), powerless Jeff Keppinger and -- based on what I’ve seen of late -- even the Pirates’ Neil Walker, who just doesn’t appear healthy.
Box score bits (AL): Speaking of the Athletics, the amazing Bartolo Colon won his 12th game and lowered his ERA to 2.69 at Pittsburgh Monday. Colon, a worthy All-Star, boasts a 1.11 WHIP. Still, with a low K rate and his age, he’s an obvious sell-high choice. … Texas Rangers second baseman Ian Kinsler had two hits and four RBIs Monday, but also was caught stealing for the sixth time this season. In fact, since coming off the DL roughly three weeks ago, Kinsler is 1-for-5 in steal attempts. He’s a terrific player, but if he’s not successfully running, he’s certainly less terrific. … Minnesota Twins outfielder Aaron Hicks went 4-for-4 Monday, with two doubles and a triple, raising his batting average from .190 to .205. Hicks seemed awfully overwhelmed in April and May, but since coming off the DL for a hamstring injury, he has three multihit games in a week. … Boston Red Sox lefty Jon Lester served up five runs to the Seattle Mariners in their pitcher-friendly stadium Monday. It’s the fifth time in six outings he did not deliver a quality start. You bet I’m concerned and not buying low.
Box score bits (NL): Philadelphia Phillies center fielder Ben Revere continues to hit and run and be worth owning in all leagues. Revere had three more hits Monday and stole his 21st base; since his moribund April when he hit .200, Revere has hit .343. … Miami Marlins outfielder Justin Ruggiano stole two bases Monday, giving him 11 on the season. He also has 12 home runs. His .224 batting average is a drag, but only six players have more home runs and steals than he does. … I was thisclose to trading away Los Angeles Dodgers underachiever Zack Greinke in one league before his terrific Monday outing, when he permitted two hits in seven shutout frames. What worries me on selling low here is Greinke is clearly capable of carrying a pitching staff, acting like Kris Medlen did in 2012. Or Greinke could be Ryan Dempster. I’m waiting another outing or two for more evidence. … The Milwaukee Brewers activated Ryan Braun from the DL Monday, though he did not play. He’s expected to start Tuesday. Braun admits his sore right thumb will remain a problem, but I’d still buy low. He’s a top-10 fantasy option and capable of stealing bases. Aramis Ramirez will miss the next few weeks with a sore knee, but try to keep him owned in standard leagues. The last-place Brewers aren’t expected to shut Ramirez down early.
 

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[h=1]Who's the real Eric Hosmer?[/h][h=3]The Royals youngster has been gangbusters following a poor first two months

By Mike Sheets | Special to ESPN.com

If we look at only the past 30 days, which, to be fair, is still a small sample size when evaluating players, it's not at all surprising to find that the Orioles' Chris Davis, who leads baseball with 33 home runs, has been the No. 1 first baseman in fantasy, according to the ESPN Player Rater. It might surprise you, however, to learn that over those same 30 days, Eric Hosmer not only ranked No. 2 among first basemen, but also in the top 10 overall, hitting .320 with eight homers, 22 RBIs and a 12-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

To put this in proper perspective, remember that Hosmer was barely ownable in mixed leagues of any size for the first couple months of the season. After all, he batted just .261 in April and May combined, struck out twice as much as he walked and hit just one measly homer in his first 61 games.

Which raises this question: Just how seriously should fantasy owners be taking this recent power surge from the Kansas City first baseman?


Well, let's start with the hiring of Royals legend George Brett, who was brought on as the team's new hitting coach on May 30. Perhaps it's more anecdotal than anything, but we can't ignore the fact that Hosmer's jump in production lines up rather well with Brett's arrival. According to a recent story in the Kansas City Star, Brett worked with Hosmer on moving his hands back slightly in his stance so he didn't have to shift them back as part of his swing. This shortened Hosmer's swing and allowed him to get his bat to the ball more quickly.

It's hard to say for certain that Hosmer's recent uptick is largely the result of Brett's coaching and the new mechanical adjustment, but on the surface, the splits do look significant. In 190 plate appearances before Brett's arrival, Hosmer batted .262/.323/.331 with only one home run. Since Brett took over, the 23-year-old has hit .318/.355/.552 with eight home runs in just 166 plate appearances. In short, he has gone from waiver-wire fodder to a must-start option, even in shallow mixed leagues.

In addition to Hosmer's turnaround since the Brett hiring, the former first-round pick has made some other strides this season, most notably an improved contact rate. Not only is Hosmer's 85 percent contact rate so far this year a career best (and more in line with his 84 percent contact rate in 2011, when he batted .293 with 19 homers in just 128 games), but it has improved every month this season, which is a good sign for his batting average.

March/April: 75 percent of at-bats
May: 87 percent
June: 88 percent
July: 93 percent

It's also worth noting that Hosmer, a lefty hitter, has struggled against left-handed pitchers in the past. In 2011, he posted a slash line of .237/.282/.303 in 152 at-bats against southpaws, and last year he hit just .220/.284/.308 in 182 at-bats against them. This season, however, he has turned the tables. While only one of his nine homers has come against a lefty, he's batting .333with a .370 OBP against them in 89 at-bats.

In other words, even with the relatively small sample size, there are some signs here that suggest Hosmer has turned the corner after a disappointing 2012 campaign and an excruciatingly slow start to this season. What I still find troubling, however, is that the main issue that plagued Hosmer last season, when he batted just .235/.304/.359 in 152 games and finished as the 35th-best first baseman on the Player Rater, is still present this season. In fact, it's worse now than ever before.

Hosmer's primary issue in 2012 was his propensity to hit the ball on the ground. A high ground ball rate is fine for a player who relies on his wheels to get on base, but it's troublesome for corner infielders who are counted on to hit for power and produce runs. Last season Hosmer sported a 53.6 percent ground ball rate, tying with speedster Michael Bourn as the 11th-highest mark in baseball. In 2013, Hosmer's ground ball rate has actually increased to 56.5. That's the sixth-highest mark in baseball, just behind Everth Cabrera and Jean Segura, who, unlike Hosmer, rely on their speed as a big part of their games (they currently rank first and third, respectively, in stolen bases in the National League).

Only one player over the past two seasons has posted a ground ball rate of at least 55 percent and hit more than 11 home runs (Derek Jeter with 15 last year). Hosmer already has nine this season, and the way he's going, he shouldn't have trouble eclipsing that mark. But Hosmer's HR/FB rate over the past month, during which time he has clubbed seven of his nine home runs, sits at 28 percent. That mark is likely unsustainable over the remainder of the season. In fact, only one player in the past four years -- Adam Dunn in 2012 -- has held a HR/FB rate better than 27 percent for an entire campaign. When the inflated HR/FB rate from Hosmer's recent hot streak regresses, his home run total is going to suffer; he just hits way too many ground balls to be a consistent source of power. And with middling power in the first place, Hosmer's ceiling is only so high.

Even when the power outburst we've seen from Hosmer over the past few weeks drops off as expected, there is still a good amount of value here. For one, he's on pace to steal double-digit bases for the third straight season, which is a rare and valuable attribute for a first baseman. And in addition to being a ground ball hitter (which actually helps in the batting average department, as ground balls are more likely than fly balls to go for hits), Hosmer boasts a career-best 22.4 line-drive rate this season, which, if it continues, will help him post a good batting average.

For the season, Hosmer ranks just 13th among first baseman on the Player Rater (though, to be fair, this includes Buster Posey and Matt Carpenter, who are used at other positions in the majority of leagues) and 56th among all hitters. That's not a great fantasy option, but it's a productive one, and one that deserves to be owned, even in 10-team standard leagues.

Verdict: I'm not buying that this is the beginning of a true breakout for Hosmer, as his production over the past few weeks might suggest. Yes, he's still just 23 years old and was a former third pick overall (in the 2008 MLB draft), so improvement can be expected. Perhaps Brett's instruction really has helped him take a step forward. But don't mistake this hot streak as a buying opportunity for a guy you feel will be a difference-maker in the second half. Hosmer could provide that kind of fantasy value in future seasons, but he doesn't profile as that type of hitter right now. Simply put, at this point in time, he's still more James Loney than Joey Votto.


[/h]
 

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Darvish joins long list of aces on DL
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<CITE class=byline>By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

The Texas Rangers don’t seem particularly worried about right-hander Yu Darvish, who has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with a mild strain in his trapezius muscle in his upper back, so really, fantasy owners shouldn’t overreact to the news. After all, Darvish is expected to miss only one start, which puts him basically in the same position as awesome New York Mets right-hander Matt Harvey, in the same plight this weekend. Sure, Harvey’s issue is about starting the All-Star game -- um, I mean, he has a blister -- and Darvish’s is more like shoulder fatigue, but still, the goal is the long term for these teams and fantasy owners. It’s not terribly uncommon for starting pitchers to get the brief DL treatment, or in the case of Oakland Athletics right-hander Dan Straily, sent to the minor leagues for a quick return after the All-Star break.

Of course, some fantasy owners just won’t see things quite that way, so now is actually a wonderful time to see if the Darvish owner in your league is panicking, and perhaps you can work a deal for less than proper value. I have full confidence in the Japanese strikeout artist and, in fact, certainly wondered over the past fortnight if his modest struggles were a result of a minor physical ailment. Darvish has managed only one quality start in his past four outings, pushing his season ERA to the other side of 3 and his WHIP over 1. Again, though, he’s been striking hitters out and he’s the No. 8 starting pitcher for the season, so it’s not like he’s been Joe Blanton of late. I blogged about Detroit Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander on Wednesday and noted that Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez and Darvish were the only three pitchers I’d choose over him for the rest of this season and for early 2014 draft purposes. This DL news doesn’t change that one bit, and the fact that Darvish leads everyone in most pitches per start (109.5), edging out C.J. Wilson, Chris Sale and Verlander, doesn’t worry me at all. Not all pitchers are created equal.
Regardless, if you’re looking for fill-in pitchers for the next week, the following options available in more than 50 percent of ESPN standard leagues seem more than reasonable to me, in order of preference: Josh Johnson, A.J. Griffin, Ricky Nolasco, Jorge De La Rosa, Bronson Arroyo, Kyle Kendrick, Jacob Turner, Ivan Nova, Wade Miley and, for while it lasts, Jeremy Hefner and Scott Feldman.
Meanwhile, a month or so ago I discussed the top hitters with the DL asterisk next to their name in terms of rest-of-season value, so now seems like an apt time to do this with the pitchers. As always, refer to excellent colleague Stephania Bell when it comes to injuries, but here are my thoughts on whether these pitchers are worth waiting for and to what degree, and apologies for the names you don’t see. We can’t discuss everyone!
Yu Darvish, Rangers: He leads baseball in strikeouts. Yeah, I’d say patience is warranted here. If it were late August, I doubt he’d miss any starts for this issue.
Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox: Still the No. 14 pitcher on the Player Rater despite having made only 12 starts, Buchholz has been dealing with neck and shoulder soreness, but the team thinks he’s close to starting a rehab assignment. He’s not the most durable fellow, and his ERA has to regress at some point, but I don’t think he’ll fall apart, either. I’m actually buying here.
Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox: The White Sox really want him back soon so they can shop him in trade, and I’d bet he returns right after the All-Star break. He remains a big strikeout option with a low WHIP. I’d stash him over the next brittle guy, which surprises me as well.
Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds: Back on the shelf with the same lat strain as before, though the tear is minor, the Reds don’t expect him back until August. They also don’t expect the injury to fully heal. Personally, I’d try to trade Cueto away, and figure he’s got about 10 starts in him at most.
Brandon Beachy, Atlanta Braves: Coming back from Tommy John surgery, the Braves think Beachy can return this month. The problem is there’s no obvious choice to leave the rotation, so they might be seeking a Tim Hudson or Paul Maholm trade. For Beachy’s purposes, don’t assume more strikeouts than innings pitched, or a sub-3.00 ERA, but he can be a top-50 pitcher the rest of the way.
Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays: He was pitching so well this season when the line drive struck his head, and the Rays seem optimistic Cobb can return by August. Hey, I’d take that. There was no guarantee he’d come back this year. Just don’t expect similar performance.
Alexi Ogando, Texas Rangers: His first rehab outing for Triple-A Round Rock didn’t go so well statistically, but the team really needs him this month. I worry about his shoulder continuing to bother him and command woes. I’m tepid on adding him.
Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals: Yeah, I’m a bit surprised he’s so close to returning, but he’s days from a rehab assignment, and the team says he will be featured as a starter. When’s the last time Carpenter pitched poorly over a long stretch? I trust him and think he returns by August. Each start could be his last, but don’t we kind of say that now for Andy Pettitte?
Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies: Well, who knows. Honestly, do you think Halladay knows? I’m skeptical that he makes more than five or six starts, but I wouldn’t bet against a major bounce back in 2014.
Wandy Rodriguez, Pittsburgh Pirates: The latest line on the lefty is he can’t get rid of the forearm tightness, which seems foreboding to me. I’d move on, since he’s not a high-upside guy to start with.
Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics: Enough is enough.

</CITE>
 

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Is Derek Jeter worth adding right away?
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Eric Karabell

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The New York Yankees will welcome back future Hall of Famer Derek Jeter to their lineup Thursday afternoon, and not a moment too soon. No offense to Jayson Nix and pals, but Yankees shortstops weren’t helping the team much offensively, featuring a lowly .211 batting average with a .269 on-base percentage. While statistical expectations for Jeter should be held in check in relation to the 216 hits he produced in 2012, the fact is the reason I recommend him for ESPN standard 10- and 12-team mixed leagues is similar to why the Yankees are so desperate for him: The position is seriously lacking quality alternatives in fantasy as well.

For example, looking at the current ESPN Player Rater there are 12 shortstops worthy of mass ownership, but the Nos. 13, 14 and 15 options for the season are Brian Dozier, Alcides Escobar and Andrelton Simmons. Entering Thursday, those guys are hitting .233, .244 and .245 respectively, with varying levels of power and stolen base prowess, but let’s just say none of them are hitting homers like J.J. Hardy or running like Everth Cabrera. I don’t expect Jeter to hit more than say five home runs this season or, coming off serious ankle woes, to steal more than five bases, but can he hit close to .300 and provide runs scored? Last season, he hit .316 with 15 homers and nine steals. And since it might be some stretch to call Jeter a starting fantasy shortstop (top 10), he’d go into your middle infield slot, where the second base depth is only marginally better. Dozier is the No. 15 second baseman. I’d prefer Jeter to the young Minnesota Twin.
So I’m surprised Jeter remains available in roughly half of ESPN’s standard leagues, though I expect by Friday morning that will have vastly changed. Look, if Dozier is your middle infielder, I’m not trading a top-20 starting pitcher to upgrade to Jeter. It’s not like that. If Jeter is a free agent, though, he’s worth adding in case he resumes his fine play from a year ago. Frankly, the guy became so overrated in fantasy circles that he’s now underrated, and I mean that in a nice way. We don’t care how he fields, and that was the main issue Wednesday for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. At the plate, Jeter was only 1-for-9 in four rehab games, but that I wouldn’t read much into. Other than the team’s hurlers seeing the defensive downgrade and outfielder Brett Gardner likely pushed out of the leadoff spot -- he could hit second and do just fine there, too -- Jeter’s return is a win-win for everyone. Fantasy owners should embrace this.
Box score bits (AL): Baltimore Orioles left-hander Wei-Yin Chen came off the disabled list Wednesday and allowed only one run in seven innings to the Texas Rangers, winning his fourth game. Chen’s numbers are better than in 2012, and while some regression seems likely, this is a safe pitcher. … Teammate Nate McLouth singled and walked in five plate appearances, but his last stolen base was June 19. Just something to watch if that’s the only reason you own him. … Hey, Michael Bourn stole a base Wednesday! He has all of four in the past month. Not exactly what we drafted him for. … Toronto Blue Jays closer Casey Janssen ran into some trouble closing out Wednesday’s win, and Steve Delabar -- who might make the All-Star team -- earned a one-pitch save. Janssen didn’t lose the role, but Delabar is having the better season. … Hopefully nobody is relying on Kansas City Royals right-hander Wade Davis. His season ERA rose to 5.89 after he permitted eight earned runs at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday. He’s showing no signs of being good. … Three more hits for Detroit Tigers catcher/DH Victor Martinez, and he’s hitting .254. Perhaps you gave up on him a month ago, but he’s hitting .414 in July. … Los Angeles Angels outfielder Josh Hamilton launched two home runs and knocked in five at Wrigley Field on Wednesday. The guy is certainly streaky, so hopefully this is the beginning of him salvaging his season. Buy low to a degree, and he should bust into my and colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft’s top-50 hitters next week.
Box score bits (NL): Miami Marlins right-hander Jacob Turner continued his fine work by beating the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday, tossing seven innings of two-run ball. Turner boasts a 2.33 ERA through eight starts, three of them wins. He’s not a big K guy, but he seems legit. … San Francisco Giants right-hander Matt Cain is legit as well; it’s not real cool that he was pulled in the first inning Wednesday, having permitted only three runs, but note the 1.18 WHIP for the season. It’s more telling than the 5.06 ERA. Buy low, no matter what Giants manager Bruce Bochy thinks. … Speaking of managers, I’d think J.J. Putz of the Arizona Diamondbacks would merely need to be upright to usurp the closing role from Heath Bell now, but who knows what manager Kirk Gibson believes. Bell blew his fifth save Wednesday. … Keep mocking Marlon Byrd of the New York Mets; his homer Wednesday was his 15th, only five short of a career high. And he’s been around a while. He’s going for 25 blasts! … St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Shelby Miller walked five Houston Astros on Wednesday, and he has only one quality start in a month. Is the rookie tired? I’m sticking with him, not selling.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Five blockbuster trades I'd like to see
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Jim Bowden

The Los Angeles Dodgers acquired Ricky Nolasco, the Baltimore Orioles added Scott Feldman and the Washington Nationals traded for Scott Hairston.

A number of factors are compelling teams to try to close deals earlier: a dearth of sellers and surplus of buyers created by two extra playoff slots, new free-agent compensation rules, and international bonus slots that teams have been trading left and right.

Still, if trades made in the next 21 days are of the caliber and size of the aforementioned trio, this year's deadline will prove to be somewhat ... boring. So I’ve cooked up five potential blockbuster trades I’d like to see. They make sense for all the teams involved and might add a little spice to the deadline.
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1. Dodgers trade Andre Ethier and minor leaguers Joc Pederson and pitchers Chris Reed and Stephen Fife to the Philadelphia Phillies for left-hander Cliff Lee and second baseman Chase Utley.

The Dodgers have the highest payroll in baseball and their expectations are to win the World Series or bust. A blockbuster deal like this would give them a legitimate shot. Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Lee, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Nolasco arguably would be the best rotation in the NL.
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Utley would give Los Angeles an upgrade at second base and improve the lineup’s left/right balance and overall depth. Ethier would have to go in order to balance Lee’s contract exposure.

Of course, the Dodgers would have to wait until they have a better feel for Matt Kemp's health and are confident he can be a factor in the second half. While the Dodgers are essentially renting Nolasco, an impending free agent, they would control Lee through 2015. Top pitching prospect Zach Lee could replace Nolasco in the rotation next season.

For the Phillies, the trade begins a complete rebuild with Pederson, who profiles out to a future .300, 20-home run hitter who can play all three outfield positions. Reed is a former first-round pick out of Stanford who profiles as a midrotation starter, and Fife is a major league-ready back-of-the-rotation starter.

Ethier keeps the seat warm for Pederson or is quickly spun to the Seattle Mariners for a middle infield or pitching prospect.
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2. The Houston Astros trade pitcher Bud Norris, second baseman Jose Altuve and outfielder Chris Carter to the Kansas City Royals for outfielder Bubba Starling, pitchers Sam Selman and Jason Adam, shortstop Orlando Calixte, catcher Cameron Gallagher and second baseman Johnny Giavotella.

Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow has done a great job in staying focused on rebuilding the Astros from scratch, and this is a great opportunity for him acquire more long-term solutions. The Astros would receive outfielder Starling, the fifth overall pick in the 2011 draft, who profiles as an above-average center fielder with 30-home run power potential. He's still very raw because of splitting his time between football and baseball in high school, but he has the tools to be an All-Star. That's the kind of upside the Astros want.
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Selman and Adam could develop into solid starters similar to Norris. Calixte is a good defensive shortstop while Gallagher can really catch and throw. If he hits enough, he could become an everyday catcher or a top-notch backup. Giavotella has had a hard time cracking the lineup in K.C., and he can step in right away in Houston to at least keep the seat warm until Delino DeShields Jr. is ready to take over.

Luhnow’s modus operandi so far has been to trade for quantity. This deal accomplishes that with high upside.

Altuve solves the Royals’ long-term problem at second and also gives them a solid No. 2 hitter in the lineup. Norris would improve the rotation and replace Ervin Santana, who likely will depart via free agency. Carter serves as an outfield power bat either in a right-field platoon or as a home run threat off the bench.
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3. The Miami Marlins trade outfielder Giancarlo Stanton and reliever A.J. Ramos to the Texas Rangers for infielder Jurickson Profar and third baseman Joey Gallo.

The Rangers finally would land the middle-of-the-order bat they’ve missed since Josh Hamilton departed via free agency. Just 23 years old, Stanton already has hit 101 home runs in just 418 big league games. He is not eligible for free agency until 2017, so the Rangers would control him for at least three more seasons. Ramos would give the Rangers yet another solid young reliever whose mid-90s fastball and hard-breaking slider miss bats on both sides of the plate.
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Of course, the price for Stanton will be huge. In fact, the Marlins’ front office has made clear to me they do not want to move Stanton. I expect them to build around him rather than move him. However, an offer of this magnitude might be too good to refuse, especially considering Stanton probably won’t ever sign a long-term deal with Miami.

The Marlins are pleased with the development of outfielder Marcel Ozuna and are even more excited about outfield prospects Christian Yelich and Jake Marisnick, who both could possibly join Ozuna in the outfield in the major leagues as soon as next season.

Profar would play second base for the Marlins and give Miami one of the game’s best future double-play combinations with Adeiny Hechavarria at shortstop, who is a Gold Glove candidate. Gallo, 19, has incredible power but is also striking out a ton at low Class A. He could develop into the Marlins’ long-term solution at third base, but he’s at least three years away.

Profar is not eligible for salary arbitration until 2016, and free agency until 2019, which certainly would be further motivation for the Marlins to make a deal like this. And since he has no spot in the middle infield in Texas, there is reason for the Rangers to move him.
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4. The Chicago White Sox trade Alex Rios and Alexei Ramirez to the Pittsburgh Pirates for outfielder Gregory Polanco, pitcher Nick Kingham and shortstop Jordy Mercer.

The Pirates solve the two major weaknesses in their lineup, with Rios taking over right field and Ramirez at shortstop. Rios, 32, has proved over the years to be a solid .270 hitter capable of 20 home runs. He is solid in right field and would be a good support bat for Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez and Starling Marte.

A change of scenery would help the 31-year-old Ramirez, who has hit 15 home runs and driven in 70 runs four different times in his career. He’s a solid defensive shortstop, too. Neither player is a difference-maker, but both would upgrade the Pirates at those positions.
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In Polanco the White Sox would acquire an excellent outfield prospect who profiles as a .300 hitter with the speed to steal 20 bases. Kingham is an underrated quality starting pitching prospect, and Mercer is a stopgap shortstop. Mainly, the White Sox free up dollars and get younger as they build for the future. Their farm system is one of the weakest in the game, and they can use quantity and quality.
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5. The Chicago Cubs trade pitchers Matt Garza and Kevin Gregg to the Detroit Tigers for outfielder Avisail Garcia and pitchers Rick Porcello and Jake Thompson.

Garza is back, both in health and trade value. He has been wowing scouts over his past four starts. His fastball velocity has returned, his slider and curveball have the same break, and his command and control have been spot-on. Although pitching is certainly not a pressing need in Detroit, the depth might just give the Tigers their best shot at a title. With a rotation of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez and Garza, the Tigers would have the best rotation in the league by far.

Garza is owed just $4.8 million for the rest of this year and is an impending free agent, so there is no long-term exposure. Gregg has been impressive closing for the Cubs, saving 15 of 17 games with a 1.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, and would be an upgrade for the Tigers, whose biggest weakness is relief pitching. Above all else, the Tigers don’t have to give up top prospect Nick Castellanos.
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For the Cubs, they get a long-term solution in right field in Garcia, who will develop into at least a .280 hitter capable of 20 homers annually. Porcello, 24, is a solid back-of-the-rotation starter who can win in double digits every year and is under control for two more years. Thompson is a solid starting pitching prospect who throws in the low 90s with heavy sink. After all that, the Cubs could try to re-sign Garza as a free agent.
 

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[h=1]Trade deadline watch: Hitters[/h][h=3]Which notable batters could see their values change if dealt in upcoming days?[/h]
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Let's not get our hopes up: Giancarlo Stanton is unlikely to be traded this month.

It's trade-speculation season, and those who have been following the rumor mills since November have heard the name "Stanton, Stanton, Stanton" cited as this year's top trade prize. Between his Miami Marlins' series of winter salary-dump moves and Stanton's own displeasure with said transactions, it has been widely assumed that the budding superstar would soon depart Miami.

Therein lies part of the problem with the rumor mill: We tend to grasp too tightly to the juiciest rumors, assume they'll come to fruition, end up disappointed with the "B-list" transactions that instead result, and in the process completely overlook an under-the-radar move (or three).

Stanton generates headlines.

Some of the names below won't, comparatively speaking, some of them barely moving news tickers at all.

But the players discussed below possess a greater probability of being dealt, and identifying them in advance is much more important in fantasy. We'll let real-game fans dream of their squads landing a premium prize such as Stanton or Cliff Lee; there's little chance their dreams will be realized. The reality is that this year's July 31 trade market is poorer than usual, without even a fantasy stud like Hanley Ramirez or Zack Greinke for the taking.

It's especially light on the hitting side, as most of the underperforming teams, unsurprisingly, lack top-shelf offensive talent. So, if you followed Tuesday's "60 Feet 6 Inches" trade deadline primer, understand that today's "Hit Parade" lists names with a greater chance of staying put, comparatively speaking. The list shrinks to eight names, and includes a couple who might lose value if traded.

For the record, Stanton will almost assuredly be traded by the Marlins, just not right now. Why? Simple: The winter trade market will probably land a greater return.

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Morales

[h=3]1. Kendrys Morales, 1B, Seattle Mariners[/h]
Just picture it now: Morales in pinstripes, his powerful bat taking aim at Yankee Stadium's short porch in right field night after night. Considering the New York Yankees currently have Travis Hafner at designated hitter and Lyle Overbay at first base, wouldn't adding Morales make a heck of a lot of sense? Or, if the Yankees don't fit your fancy, how about the Texas Rangers?

A Morales deal would be big news in fantasy on many fronts. For one, he can't even crack the lineup on an every-night basis -- though he at least has 30 starts in the Mariners' past 35 games -- because of the presence of DH/first base types such as Justin Smoak, Michael Morse and Raul Ibanez clogging up the lineup. For another, Safeco Field predictably has reined in his power; he has .193 isolated power and a 18.6 home run/fly ball percentage in his road games, but .172 and 11.9 at home. Morales has already shown us he's capable of batting somewhere between .270-.290, but what he hasn't had the opportunity to do is flash his legitimate 30-homer potential. In a deeper lineup, that'll also mean more runs and RBIs.

The Mariners moving Morales also frees up the DH role for the possible return of Jesus Montero, whose long-term role really should be DH. He recently returned from a knee injury, and with a couple hot weeks for Triple-A Tacoma might be in line for a promotion if that spot opens up. Remember, Montero is still catcher-eligible (and will be in 2014); he might be a smart stash in AL-only/deep-mixed.

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Morneau

[h=3]2. Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins[/h]
Admit it. If you've owned Morneau at any point in these past four years, you've been itching to see him freed of Target Field, with its 23-foot-high fence in right and right-center fields, haven't you? The numbers support it (these 2010-13):

Home: .284/.359/.439, .155 ISO, 7.4 HR/FB%, .327 BABIP
Road: .271/.335/.463, .192 ISO, 12.3 HR/FB%, .288 BABIP

Morneau's terrible 2013 numbers might force the Twins to include some of the money remaining on his $14 million salary, but he's a soon-to-be free agent playing for a payday, and in almost any other venue his power would play better. Plus, perhaps most important, he bucked a career trend of poor second-half performances with one of his stronger second halves in 2012 (.289/.354/.439), meaning that his best statistics might be yet to come. If you're seeking a lower-tier first baseman with upside, Morneau could come cheaply.

Maybe best yet: A departure by Morneau would pave the way for everyday at-bats for Oswaldo Arcia, not to mention probably Chris Parmelee and/or Ryan Doumit (if he's not also traded). Arcia needs to play, not only because additional at-bats mean a counting-number boost, but also because he could use some on-the-job training against left-handers to perhaps have mastered them by 2014.

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Ethier

[h=3]3. Andre Ethier, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers[/h]
Matt Kemp's return to the disabled list shouldn't serve as a reprieve for Ethier; the Dodgers should regard it an opportunity to showcase an overpaid outfielder they desperately need to trade. He has, after all, started 25 of 27 Dodgers games and batted .361 with a 9.3 percent walk rate in the past 30 days, so the time is right if the team is to have any prayer of unloading the $75-plus million (through 2017) remaining on his contract. Yes, it'll be difficult to unload it nevertheless.

An Ethier trade would send massive ripples through fantasy, even if only for mere playing-time reasons. After all, when all are healthy, the Dodgers have four legitimate major league outfielders for three spots, Carl Crawford and Yasiel Puig being the two not yet mentioned. Imagine what fantasy owners will say the first time Puig sits for Ethier, following Kemp's return? Or, if you're an Ethier owner in NL-only or deep mixed leagues, how happy will you be if he plays just 2-3 times a week after that point? At-bats will be precious in that outfield the remainder of the year, and the most suitable arrangement for all is a trade of Ethier.

Ethier's value might improve outside of L.A. besides, as a quick glance at his career numbers in four hitting-friendly ballparks in which he has played at least 20 games -- Arizona's Chase Field, Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park, Colorado's Coors Field and Milwaukee's Miller Park -- shows he's a .288/.355/.467 hitter with 18 homers and 79 RBIs in 167 total contests. A trade to the Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox or New York Yankees could restore him to the class of top-30 outfielders.

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Konerko

[h=3]4. Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox[/h]
He's facing a race against time, as he's ineligible to return from his back injury before July 17, exactly two weeks before the July 31 deadline. That said, if Konerko is to have any chance of being showcased for trade, the White Sox will grant him it, as they'd probably love to move him and his $13.5 million salary, even if such a trade comes during the August waiver period.

The problem, however, is that any trade of Konerko further threatens his already declining fantasy value. His isolated power -- his slugging percentage minus his batting average, helping outline a player's power potential -- and well-hit average -- the percentage of his at-bats that resulted in hard contact -- have declined in each year since 2010, and he has a substantial home/road split that is a concern because of how homer-friendly his home ballpark is (these from 2009-13):

Home: .301/.388/.558, .257 ISO, 18.4 HR/FB%, .301 BABIP
Road: .283/.353/.453, .170 ISO, 12.1 HR/FB%, .303 BABIP

There's a reason that Konerko has continually slipped in my rankings this season, and the threat of a trade out of U.S. Cellular Field only compounds that problem. At least there'd be some promise for AL-only owners remaining in Chicago: Dayan Viciedo might be shifted to first base, also freeing up outfield at-bats for Blake Tekotte, in the event Konerko is moved.

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Utley

[h=3]5. Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies[/h]
Don't race to assume that Utley would lose value because he'd be removed from Citizens Bank Park; the truth is that Citizens Bank hasn't been a clear hitters' heaven since 2007. Besides, Utley has performed better on the road than at home this season, though again, that's not terribly relevant to this story, either, because it represents only the first time since 2009 that he was a better road hitter.

Utley's gain if he's traded is the strength of the potential landing spot: In a lineup such as that of the Los Angeles Dodgers, he'd benefit from a boost in runs/RBI potential, especially if he could figure into the No. 2 or 3 spot in the order. Or, in an even more attractive arrangement, he could land with an American League team that has a designated hitter spot in which to provide him necessary rest, potentially increasing his number of games played. Perhaps the Phillies won't deal Utley because of his historical significance to the franchise, but the mere prospect that they might makes him an excellent contender for top-10 second base fantasy status.

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Morse

[h=3]6. Michael Morse, OF, Seattle Mariners[/h]
The Mariners have averaged 3.82 runs per game this season, third worst in the majors, so the same point about runs/RBIs that applied to Morales above does to Morse as well. He is a middle-of-the-order hitter who thus far has only 23 RBIs to show for his nine doubles and 11 home runs, so any trade elsewhere could vault him into a class of top-25 power hitters in fantasy (that's "power hitters," or HR/RBI sources, not "hitters overall," mind you).

Though Morse is currently on the disabled list with a strained right quadriceps, he's scheduled to begin a brief rehabilitation assignment during the weekend, meaning he might be ready to join the Mariners' lineup in time for a two-week showcase for trade. His injury history is troubling, but he also has a track record of going on some lengthy hot spells: He had a .292/.326/.491, 14-homer, 46-RBI second half in 2012; a .306/.351/.535, 15-homer, 49-RBI first half in 2011; and a .282/.347/.518, 11-homer, 32-RBI second half in 2010. Don't rule out another big second half.

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Rios

[h=3]7. Alex Rios, OF, Chicago White Sox[/h]
Change -- any type of change -- scares me when it comes to Rios, because he has historically been one of the most unpredictable players in baseball. When the status quo qualifies as a success, why change the status quo?

Fear No. 1: Rios has been moved in a deadline deal before, in 2009, and he was a ghastly .199/.229/.301 hitter in 41 games for the White Sox afterward.
Fear No. 2: Even with his 6-for-6 outburst Tuesday -- be aware that three of those hits came on balls in play judged "soft contact" -- Rios has batted just .261/.297/.351 in 28 games since the White Sox played back-to-back extra-inning games June 5-6, sandwiching a flight from Seattle to Chicago, so maybe it's not the best time to thrust him into a new situation.
Fear No. 3: Rios has been the White Sox's No. 3 hitter in 84 of their 87 games. For how many other teams would he be handed that high a lineup spot?

To be fair, Rios has exhibited little in the way of a home/road platoon split during his White Sox career, so it's possible he'd be the same ol' Alex anywhere. He's also one of the few true power/speed stars in fantasy -- he's one of only six players with at least 70 home runs and steals since 2010 -- which should earn him greater patience among his owners. But I can't say I'm not at all scared …

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Ruggiano

[h=3]8. Justin Ruggiano, OF, Miami Marlins[/h]
You could essentially write "Miami Marlins outfielder" for this one and be accurate, as trade rumors have swirled around Ruggiano's outfield mates Stanton and Juan Pierre. Ruggiano gets the nod because he's more likely to be moved than Stanton, and more likely to experience an increase in value via trade than Pierre.

This one is mostly about the ballpark, and remember, while Stanton gets the benefit of the doubt in the power department -- he broke the scoreboard at that spacious venue, so he hits them far -- Ruggiano isn't a similar caliber light-tower power hitter. Ruggiano has hit 25 home runs in 167 games between this and last season. Guess how many were hit at Marlins Park? Four, and his isolated power there is .128 (his road isolated power is .269). Getting him out of that canyonesque venue -- let's call it the new Petco -- would be for the best. Here's a fact that illustrates how criminally underrated Ruggiano is: He's one of only nine players with at least 25 homers and steals since June 1, 2012.

The other ways a Ruggiano trade matters is that on any other team, he'd be propped up more in terms of runs/RBIs, and the Marlins have every incentive to trade an outfielder besides, with top prospect Christian Yelich nearly big league ready. Yelich is a particularly smart stash, as there's an excellent chance the Marlins will move at least one outfielder, and there's no question that he's the most deserving candidate to claim the vacated spot.

[h=3]Other candidates to be traded[/h]
Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego Padres: He was a popular preseason trade candidate, but I'm not buying it today. Headley is enduring an awful year, so the return wouldn't warrant the deal.
Carlos Ruiz, C, Philadelphia Phillies: He's a lifetime .284/.372/.439 hitter after the All-Star break, and in the right lineup, he could make a run at top-10 fantasy catcher value in the final two months.
Michael Young, 1B/3B, Philadelphia Phillies: He might be the Phillies' most likely player to be traded, even more so than Utley, but I simply don't see much of a change in value coming if he's moved.
Josh Willingham, OF, Minnesota Twins: He's out 4-6 weeks following knee surgery, presumably forcing him into the August waiver-trade class. I could see, say, an Aug. 25 trade, but that leaves little time for him to make a fantasy impact.
John Buck, C, New York Mets: The obvious takeaway is that a Buck trade paves the way for top prospect Travis d'Arnaud to take over. D'Arnaud hasn't yet resumed playing minor league games despite making progress with his fractured left foot, however, so the Mets might keep him in the minors until the Sept. 1 roster expansion, giving him only one month's time as a big league starter.
Ryan Doumit, C/OF, Minnesota Twins: Root against him landing back in the National League; one of the primary reasons he managed a career-high 528 plate appearances in 2012 and a pace of 568 this year was that the Twins had a DH spot in which to "rest" him.

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[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.
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1Miguel Cabrera, Det3B1176Martin Prado, Ari3B981
2Mike Trout, LAAOF1277Kyle Seager, Sea3B1088
3Carlos Gonzalez, ColOF2378Anthony Rizzo, ChC1B1267
4Robinson Cano, NYY2B1479Chase Headley, SD3B1166
5Andrew McCutchen, PitOF3580Brian McCann, AtlC685
6Chris Davis, Bal1B1681Jimmy Rollins, PhiSS877
7Paul Goldschmidt, Ari1B2882Ben Revere, PhiOF3491
8David Wright, NYM3B21083Starlin Castro, ChCSS982
9Joey Votto, Cin1B3784Salvador Perez, KCC783
10Hanley Ramirez, LADSS11885Elvis Andrus, TexSS1086
11Evan Longoria, TB3B3986Torii Hunter, DetOF3594
12Edwin Encarnacion, Tor1B41287Brett Gardner, NYYOF3680
13Adam Jones, BalOF41188J.J. Hardy, BalSS1187
14Carlos Gomez, MilOF51589Pablo Sandoval, SF3B1271
15Jose Bautista, TorOF61490Carl Crawford, LADOF3796
16Prince Fielder, Det1B51391Jonathan Lucroy, MilC898
17Ryan Braun, MilOF73792Coco Crisp, OakOF3890
18Buster Posey, SFC11793Wil Myers, TBOF3992
19Dustin Pedroia, Bos2B21694Alejandro De Aza, CWSOF4093
20Jacoby Ellsbury, BosOF81995Adam Lind, Tor1B1378
21Adrian Beltre, Tex3B42396Victor Martinez, DetC9102
22Bryce Harper, WshOF92197Aaron Hill, Ari2B1197
23Troy Tulowitzki, ColSS24298Adam LaRoche, Wsh1B1499
24Jason Kipnis, Cle2B32699Daniel Murphy, NYM2B12101
25Jean Segura, MilSS325100Erick Aybar, LAASS12103
26Ian Kinsler, Tex2B424101Josh Reddick, OakOF41109
27Jay Bruce, CinOF1022102Jayson Werth, WshOF42107
28Jose Reyes, TorSS432103Kendrys Morales, Sea1B15105
29Giancarlo Stanton, MiaOF1120104Leonys Martin, TexOF43114
30Allen Craig, StL1B630105Dan Uggla, Atl2B13116
31Austin Jackson, DetOF1231106Mike Napoli, BosC10100
32Freddie Freeman, Atl1B729107Nick Markakis, BalOF44111
33Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh3B534108Adam Dunn, CWS1B16113
34David Ortiz, BosDH133109Nate McLouth, BalOF45106
35Justin Upton, AtlOF1327110Jed Lowrie, OakSS13110
36Shin-Soo Choo, CinOF1436111Shane Victorino, BosOF46108
37Ian Desmond, WshSS539112Jedd Gyorko, SD2B14118
38Adrian Gonzalez, LAD1B844113David Freese, StL3B13104
39Albert Pujols, LAA1B928114Rickie Weeks, Mil2B15126
40Alex Rios, CWSOF1543115Jason Castro, HouC11120
41Yadier Molina, StLC241116Alexei Ramirez, CWSSS14112
42Yasiel Puig, LADOF1650117Nick Franklin, SeaSS15127
43Matt Holliday, StLOF1747118Matt Wieters, BalC12130
44Carlos Beltran, StLOF1849119Michael Morse, SeaOF47131
45Manny Machado, Bal3B646120Aramis Ramirez, Mil3B1495
46Brandon Phillips, Cin2B538121Colby Rasmus, TorOF48133
47Domonic Brown, PhiOF1956122Brandon Moss, Oak1B17125
48Everth Cabrera, SDSS648123Jhonny Peralta, DetSS16117
49Yoenis Cespedes, OakOF2040124Brandon Belt, SF1B18115
50Nelson Cruz, TexOF2153125A.J. Pierzynski, TexC13124
51Michael Cuddyer, ColOF2255126Anthony Rendon, Wsh2B16132
52Jose Altuve, Hou2B654127Norichika Aoki, MilOF49134
53Starling Marte, PitOF2357128Nolan Arenado, Col3B15119
54Joe Mauer, MinC351129Logan Morrison, Mia1B19144
55Alex Gordon, KCOF2459130Andre Ethier, LADOF50145
56Jason Heyward, AtlOF2563131Michael Brantley, CleOF51142
57Asdrubal Cabrera, CleSS758132Brett Lawrie, Tor3B16139
58Michael Bourn, CleOF2645133Melky Cabrera, TorOF52121
59Ben Zobrist, TB2B762134Todd Frazier, Cin3B17128
60Josh Hamilton, LAAOF2769135Justin Morneau, Min1B20137
61Desmond Jennings, TBOF2868136Ichiro Suzuki, NYYOF53138
62Chase Utley, Phi2B861137Chris Carter, Hou1B21141
63Josh Donaldson, Oak3B773138Alfonso Soriano, ChCOF54155
64Hunter Pence, SFOF2952139Nick Swisher, CleOF55135
65Eric Hosmer, KC1B1084140Alcides Escobar, KCSS17129
66Billy Butler, KC1B1165141Oswaldo Arcia, MinOF56140
67Carlos Santana, CleC464142James Loney, TB1B22143
68Curtis Granderson, NYYOF3072143Andrelton Simmons, AtlSS18154
69Matt Carpenter, StL2B974144Raul Ibanez, SeaOF57176
70Howie Kendrick, LAA2B1070145Miguel Montero, AriC14136
71Mark Trumbo, LAAOF3160146Chris Johnson, Atl3B18159
72Matt Kemp, LADOF3235147Jarrod Saltalamacchia, BosC15152
73Pedro Alvarez, Pit3B879148Derek Jeter, NYYSS19171
74Dexter Fowler, ColOF3375149Justin Ruggiano, MiaOF58193
75Wilin Rosario, ColC576150Nate Schierholtz, ChCOF59149

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[h=1]Trade deadline watch: Pitchers[/h][h=3]Which notable hurlers could see their values change if dealt in upcoming days?[/h]
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

When you look at the baseball calendar -- the regular-season one, that is -- there are really only two times when player values tend to shift rapidly:

• The first is the first few weeks of April, as roles become crystallized and we get our first "real" glimpses of players in the given year.

• The second, and upcoming one, is the annual midsummer trade deadline, which this year arrives on Wednesday, July 31.

It's an exciting time for fantasy owners, when a fresh set of new opportunities for players presents themselves in these next three-plus weeks. That's not to say that players can't change teams after that date -- they merely have to clear waivers first -- but the most intriguing moves annually tend to happen in late July.

This isn't to say that you should embrace wild speculation, panic because your players are in jeopardy of plummeting in value, or overrate every trade that does happen. History shows us that the trade deadline can also be one of the most overstated events of the fantasy baseball season, and often, it's the lesser names impacted by blockbuster trades or the lesser deals themselves that generate the headlines. Just using last year as an example, while everyone talked about Hanley Ramirez and Zack Greinke getting traded -- neither experiencing any noticeable change in value -- it was Greg Holland, Marco Scutaro and Chris Johnson who were three of the biggest winners as a result of deadline deals.

Consider today's column an effective "primer" for player value shifts at the 2013 trade deadline. Ranked below are 10 names rumored on the block, in the order in which such a deal might impact the player himself or those surrounding him. This doesn't mean you should race to radically adjust your team in anticipation of a possible deal; it's merely a warning to formulate your plans.

i

Garza

[h=3]1. Matt Garza, SP, Chicago Cubs[/h]
A free agent at year's end, and one earning $10.25 million this season, Garza is highly likely to be traded in the next 22 days, no matter what the Cubs would have you believe. The reason is simple: He's injury-prone, having spent time on the disabled list in each of the past three seasons, and he continues to put strain on his elbow by throwing such a high rate of sliders (23.4 percent from 2011-13). It makes much more sense for the team to cash in his chip than lock him up, especially since they might not be competitive for another couple of years.

Oddly, a trade probably wouldn't impact Garza much in terms of ERA/WHIP -- with the possible exception of extreme hitters' environments like Texas, Boston or Baltimore -- considering his track record. Check out his home/road splits during his two-and-a-half years with the Cubs:

Home: 27 GS, 21 QS, 11 W, 2.70 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .102 ISO, 9.7 HR/FB%
Road: 32 GS, 16 QS, 9 W, 4.24 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, .153 ISO, 10.9 HR/FB%

Now compare those to his previous two years (2009-10) with the Tampa Bay Rays:

Home: 32 GS, 22 QS, 13 W, 3.36 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .141 ISO, 8.5 HR/FB%
Road: 32 GS, 15 QS, 10 W, 4.53 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .182 ISO, 10.9 HR/FB%

It seems that run support might be the most significant change to Garza's value as a result of a trade. That doesn't necessarily mean a boost to his current 5.00 runs per nine of support; it just increases his chances of maintaining that number, as the Cubs have averaged 4.11 runs per game this season. But that matters, as slightly better win potential at no expense to ERA/WHIP/K's is a plus. It could result in a rise of as many as eight spots (five among starters) in the ranks below; but remember that no trade is going to diminish any of Garza's injury risk.

Should Garza -- and/or rotation-mates Travis Wood or Carlos Villanueva -- be moved, Jake Arrieta, recently acquired in the Scott Feldman deal, might benefit. A move to the National League improved Arrieta's chances of success, and deep NL-only owners might want to stash him as a future matchups candidate.

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Rodriguez

[h=3]2. Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Milwaukee Brewers[/h]
Could this signing have worked out better for the Brewers? K-Rod signed a minor league deal with a big league salary between $2 and 2.5 million on April 17, was in the majors 29 days later, and was closing games eight days after that. In his 22 appearances, he has shown no reason for anyone to believe he can't still close, or at least pitch at a high level in a late-inning role, meaning the Brewers got a valuable trade chip for practically nothing.

That said, he's high on this list for one reason: If traded, he probably will not close for his new team … except in rare instances like that of the Detroit Tigers. Every summer has such examples of closers-turned-setup men via trade: Jonathan Broxton (2012), Octavio Dotel (2010), George Sherrill (2009), Jon Rauch (2008) and Rodriguez himself (2011). In fantasy, the loss of saves represents a precipitous drop in value, so the danger here is real. K-Rod might be a top-15 fantasy closer for up to the next 22 days, but he might then have no business being on a mixed-league roster for the season's final 50 days.

A K-Rod trade makes perfect sense considering the Brewers have two viable replacements behind him, Jim Henderson and John Axford, though Axford might also be on the trade block. Here's a not-so-crazy thought: K-Rod gets traded coming out of the All-Star break, affording Axford 13 days to boost his trade stock in the closer role, only to be traded on July 31 to clear the gig for Henderson. Look at Axford's recent performance, and you'll see why he's an especially intriguing NL-only stash:

Past 26 games: 8 holds, 0.40 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 22 K's in 22 2/3 innings

i

Johnson

[h=3]3. Josh Johnson, SP, Toronto Blue Jays[/h]
This one assumes that the Blue Jays decide to be sellers rather than buyers in the next three weeks, but as things stand, the team resides 9½ games out of the American League East lead and six in the wild-card hunt, so any sort of upcoming slump might push them into the former group. Johnson is signed only through this season, earning $13.75 in 2013, so he'd be an obvious trade candidate.

Who wouldn't like to see Johnson out of both the AL East -- which, despite absorbing criticism for not being as loaded offensively, still has seen the Blue Jays' four rivals combining to average 4.64 runs per game -- and Toronto's Rogers Centre, the third-most hitter-friendly venue in terms of home runs and fourth-most in terms of runs scored, per our 2013 MLB Park Factors page? Sure, Johnson has three of his four quality starts and a 3.67 ERA at home this season, but his 1.46 WHIP, .174 isolated power and 14.9 home run/fly ball percentage there say the venue has hardly been kind to him. A return to the National League, as he has a 3.13 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in his career against NL foes, would probably be for the best.

Any Johnson -- or R.A. Dickey or Mark Buehrle -- trade might have an additional fantasy benefit: It could result in the arrival of one of their top pitching prospects, Marcus Stroman, the No. 22 overall pick in the 2012 draft and a pitcher who has a 3.26 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 10 starts for Double-A New Hampshire.

i

Gregg

[h=3]4. Kevin Gregg, RP, Chicago Cubs[/h]
Like Rodriguez, Gregg faces the danger of being more attractive to his acquiring team in a setup capacity than as a closer, and his lifetime 1.37 WHIP tells you a bit about his fantasy potential in the former. And like Rodriguez, Gregg signed a minor league deal with his team, only to parlay it into a big league closing gig in which he has excelled: 15-for-17 in save chances with a 1.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 31 appearances. A mechanical change made much of the difference; his fastball has new life and if we knew he'd remain the Cubs' closer all year, he'd probably warrant top-20 closer consideration. Still, we not only don't know that he will, we know that he's highly likely to be dealt, partly because the Cubs, noncontenders, don't need a closer and partly because he has a cheap, attractive contract.

That's why Blake Parker, who has two holds, a 2.25 ERA and 26.2 percent strikeout rate in his first 14 appearances of 2013, has become a sleeper in NL-only and deep mixed leagues in recent days. Parker saved the Cubs' June 29 extra-inning win, only hours after manager Dale Sveum tabbed him a candidate to replace Gregg. Considering his competition is James Russell, a left-hander whom Sveum prefers in a setup capacity, Parker has a good chance at a sneaky second half.

i

Gallardo

[h=3]5. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers[/h]
Ah, the age-old question: Can a trade cure a multiyear trend of declining velocity and strikeout rates? Logically, no, and that's the obstacle for Gallardo, whose 18.6 percent K rate this season represents easily his worst at any single-season stop during his professional career, and whose 90.7 mph average fastball velocity represents nearly a 2 mph decline from his 2011 average (92.6).

A change in coaching could help, a mere change of scenery might help, but a big plus for Gallardo might be getting out of hitter-friendly Miller Park, where he has a 5.14 ERA this season. The problem, however, is that he has a limited no-trade clause of 10 teams, most of which are the contenders who would be interested in him. The Arizona Diamondbacks are one rumored suitor who isn't on that list, but Chase Field wouldn't represent much of an improvement in his surroundings. But hey, at least it'd be a change for Gallardo … and at least change would offer some glimmer of hope of turning around his otherwise lost season.

i

Norris

[h=3]6. Bud Norris, SP, Houston Astros[/h]
Go ahead and point out his absurd career home/road splits, especially since 2011:

Home: 39 GS, 24 QS, 12 W, 2.71 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .129 ISO, 8.2 HR/FB%
Road: 39 GS, 21 QS, 7 W, 5.42 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .181 ISO, 11.2 HR/FB%

Norris' owners might prefer he remain right where he is, where he'd be a reliable matchups choice in his home games. That said, what if he's merely a pitcher who needs a more spacious home environment, and whose value could spike if he lands in a division light on offense? Norris is extraordinarily reliant upon his slider, his primary source of strikeouts, as his fastball is more hittable (he tends to serve up a high rate of fly balls with it), so his skills hint that'd be a smart destination. A place like San Francisco's AT&T Park might be a dream fit, especially if you consider that left-handed hitters have always hit him better than righties.

Norris is another pitcher for whom the story is as much about his potential replacement as it is himself. Jarred Cosart, who has a 3.29 ERA and 93 K's in 93 innings over 18 games (17 starts) for Triple-A Oklahoma City, might be worth tucking away in AL-only formats.

i

Peavy

[h=3]7. Jake Peavy, SP, Chicago White Sox[/h]
He'll be somewhat difficult to trade, due to his $14.5 million salary this season, $15 million in 2014 and a vesting player option for 2015 that requires another 333 innings by the end of next year, but the White Sox will sure try. Frankly, fantasy owners should be thrilled if they succeed; he'd almost assuredly receive more run support elsewhere and he'd be freed of a poor venue for his skill set. To the former point, the White Sox this season have averaged 3.65 runs per game, second-worst in the majors. To the latter, Peavy has a 43.6 percent fly-ball rate since 2010, serving up 37 home runs in 43 starts between this and last season. This one's much more about the potential gain in Peavy's fantasy value, which could be as much as 15-20 spots among starting pitchers in the right landing spot, than it is the likelihood that he's actually traded.

i

Veras

[h=3]8. Jose Veras, RP, Houston Astros[/h]
Veras is the third closer on this list, and like the previous two, he's an attractive trade candidate due to his affordable salary ($1.85 million plus a $3.25 million option for 2014 with a $150,000 buyout) and solid performance to date, but also one whose value is threatened by a possible demotion to setup work with his acquiring team. He's actually the least appealing fantasy option in a setup role; he has four losses and three blown saves this year, and flashing back to his 2011 in that role, he blew seven saves and had a so-so 3.80 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. That's just not enough to impact our game. Veras is precisely the type of pitcher who finds himself dropped in every mixed league the instant he's traded.

But who might close for the Astros should Veras go? A committee appears the most likely scenario, with Jose Cisnero, Josh Fields and Wesley Wright top candidates, but Cisnero is the one who warrants the most attention. His command might be sketchy -- he has walked 11.5 percent of hitters he has faced in his professional career -- but he also has a mid-90s fastball that serves a legitimate strikeout pitch. Cisnero is AL-only sleeper material, though, as you can't save a game your team doesn't win.

i

Papelbon

[h=3]9. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Philadelphia Phillies[/h]
He's the one closer on the list who is highly likely to serve in the same role for his new team, and it's all because of his contract: He's owed $13 million this year and in each of the next two, then has a $13 million option for 2016 that vests with 55 games finished in 2015 or 100 in 2014-15 combined. Papelbon is paid like a closer, so his acquiring team will surely do so with the intent to have him close. That's if any team is willing to take on his contract, which is no guarantee.

But this is as much about who might replace Papelbon in Philadelphia: Even if it's initially a committee, Justin De Fratus warrants an NL-only look. A closer in the lower levels, De Fratus managed a 3.05 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8.99 K's per nine innings ratio during his minor league career.

i

Lohse

[h=3]10. Kyle Lohse, SP, Milwaukee Brewers[/h]
Could the Brewers really move Lohse, who is in the first year of a three-year, $33 million contract? Believe it, as he makes every bit as much sense a trade target as his rotation-mate, Gallardo, who will earn $500,000 more than Lohse in 2014. Most of Lohse's gains of 2012 have remained evident: His walk rate of 4.4 percent in 2012 has dropped to 4.1 percent this year; he has a WHIP of 1.18, up from 1.09; and his FIP is a respectable 3.47, after standing at 2.86 last year. Most of the cause of his lower fantasy value comes down to two things: the difference in ballpark factors between St. Louis' Busch Stadium and Milwaukee's Miller Park, and what has been less run support than he received with the St. Louis Cardinals. In the right situation, Lohse might have a legitimate shot at top-40-starter value.

[h=3]Other candidates to be traded[/h]
Steve Cishek, Miami Marlins: The No. 1 pitcher on our Player Rater the past 30 days, Cishek has erased any memory of his poor start to the season. He's another closer in jeopardy of ending up a setup man if traded.
Phil Hughes, New York Yankees: He's an extreme fly-baller susceptible to the long ball at bandbox Yankee Stadium. Elsewhere, his stock might soar.
Joe Saunders, Seattle Mariners: He has a 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in eight starts at Safeco Field. Almost anywhere else, you shouldn't touch him.
Oliver Perez, Seattle Mariners: He has thrived in a setup/occasional closer role in Seattle, but there's little doubt he'd be slotted in a firm setup role most anywhere else he lands.
Shaun Marcum, New York Mets: He has one win in 12 starts, and any gain in that department would be offset by his no longer pitching in one of the game's best pitching venues, Citi Field (1.19 WHIP there).
Jason Vargas, Los Angeles Angels: He has pitched better than anyone has given him credit for for multiple years now, and perhaps a move to the NL, or a pitching-friendly AL park, would help lower his ERA/WHIP.

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[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.
<CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>Player, Team<CENTER>Pos
Rnk</CENTER>
<CENTER>Prev
Rnk</CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER><CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>Player<CENTER>Pos
Rnk</CENTER>
<CENTER>Prev
Rnk</CENTER>
1Clayton Kershaw, LADSP1176Kevin Gregg, ChCRP2274
2Adam Wainwright, StLSP2277Alex Cobb, TBSP5576
3Max Scherzer, DetSP3478Tommy Milone, OakSP5679
4Felix Hernandez, SeaSP4579Joaquin Benoit, DetRP2385
5Yu Darvish, TexSP5380Travis Wood, ChCSP5786
6Justin Verlander, DetSP6781Paul Maholm, AtlSP5875
7Cliff Lee, PhiSP7682Huston Street, SDRP2478
8Stephen Strasburg, WshSP8883Ricky Nolasco, LADSP5996
9Madison Bumgarner, SFSP9984A.J. Griffin, OakSP6082
10Gio Gonzalez, WshSP101085Rafael Betancourt, ColRP2592
11David Price, TBSP112286Tom Wilhelmsen, SeaRP26142
12Matt Harvey, NYMSP121187Mike Leake, CinSP6173
13Jordan Zimmermann, WshSP131388Koji Uehara, BosRP2781
14Craig Kimbrel, AtlRP11289Gerrit Cole, PitSP6283
15Chris Sale, CWSSP141690Yovani Gallardo, MilSP6369
16Aroldis Chapman, CinRP21591Jhoulys Chacin, ColSP6493
17Mariano Rivera, NYYRP31792Brandon Beachy, AtlSP6594
18Mat Latos, CinSP151893Corey Kluber, CleSP66106
19Kenley Jansen, LADRP41994Jeff Locke, PitSP67114
20Zack Greinke, LADSP162195Wade Miley, AriSP68126
21CC Sabathia, NYYSP172096Jose Veras, HouRP2899
22Homer Bailey, CinSP182497Zack Wheeler, NYMSP6990
23Jered Weaver, LAASP193098Jorge De La Rosa, ColSP70103
24Cole Hamels, PhiSP202899Andrew Cashner, SDSP7187
25Matt Cain, SFSP2114100Ryan Dempster, BosSP7298
26Hiroki Kuroda, NYYSP2225101Tony Cingrani, CinSP73101
27Mike Minor, AtlSP2327102Francisco Rodriguez, MilRP29137
28Jason Grilli, PitRP526103Tim Hudson, AtlSP7495
29Matt Moore, TBSP2441104Johnny Cueto, CinSP7591
30Matt Garza, ChCSP2534105Jim Henderson, MilRP3097
31James Shields, KCSP2629106J.J. Putz, AriRP3188
32Rafael Soriano, WshRP633107Tim Lincecum, SFSP76123
33Jeff Samardzija, ChCSP2723108Rick Porcello, DetSP77111
34Greg Holland, KCRP736109Wandy Rodriguez, PitSP7889
35Joe Nathan, TexRP835110John Axford, MilRP32115
36Hisashi Iwakuma, SeaSP2831111Drew Smyly, DetRP33113
37Patrick Corbin, AriSP2940112Jacob Turner, MiaSP79116
38Shelby Miller, StLSP3032113Miguel Gonzalez, BalSP80107
39Lance Lynn, StLSP3137114Bud Norris, HouSP81130
40Jonathan Papelbon, PhiRP938115Dan Straily, OakSP82140
41Fernando Rodney, TBRP1049116Jeremy Hefner, NYMSP83NR
42Glen Perkins, MinRP1142117Eric Stults, SDSP84105
43Anibal Sanchez, DetSP3248118Trevor Rosenthal, StLRP34108
44Clay Buchholz, BosSP3343119Mark Melancon, PitRP35104
45Jim Johnson, BalRP1244120Kyle Gibson, MinSP85110
46Edward Mujica, StLRP1347121David Robertson, NYYRP36117
47Julio Teheran, AtlSP3446122Dillon Gee, NYMSP86118
48C.J. Wilson, LAASP3552123Ian Kennedy, AriSP87119
49Addison Reed, CWSRP1439124Rex Brothers, ColRP37109
50Jose Fernandez, MiaSP3655125Jason Vargas, LAASP88131
51Bobby Parnell, NYMRP1559126Phil Hughes, NYYSP89127
52Sergio Romo, SFRP1650127Heath Bell, AriRP38125
53Hyun-Jin Ryu, LADSP3757128Andy Pettitte, NYYSP90122
54R.A. Dickey, TorSP3854129Felix Doubront, BosSP91133
55Francisco Liriano, PitSP3965130Scott Feldman, BalSP92NR
56Grant Balfour, OakRP1762131Hector Santiago, CWSSP93136
57Doug Fister, DetSP4051132Edwin Jackson, ChCSP94141
58Casey Janssen, TorRP1853133Ivan Nova, NYYSP95NR
59Jarrod Parker, OakSP4156134Tyler Clippard, WshRP39147
60A.J. Burnett, PitSP4263135Trevor Cahill, AriSP96102
61Jon Lester, BosSP4360136Kyle Kendrick, PhiSP97112
62Derek Holland, TexSP4466137Yoervis Medina, SeaRP40121
63Ernesto Frieri, LAARP1967138Brandon McCarthy, AriSP98129
64Kris Medlen, AtlSP4545139Vinnie Pestano, CleRP41124
65Jeremy Hellickson, TBSP4672140Erasmo Ramirez, SeaSP99148
66Chris Perez, CleRP2071141Paco Rodriguez, LADRP42134
67John Lackey, BosSP4777142David Hernandez, AriRP43132
68Ervin Santana, KCSP4861143Jonathan Pettibone, PhiSP100NR
69Bartolo Colon, OakSP4970144Brett Anderson, OakSP101146
70Josh Johnson, TorSP5058145Alexi Ogando, TexSP102135
71Jake Peavy, CWSSP5180146Brandon Morrow, TorSP103128
72Steve Cishek, MiaRP2183147Blake Parker, ChCSP104NR
73Chris Tillman, BalSP5268148Carlos Martinez, StLSP105144
74Kyle Lohse, MilSP53100149Andrew Bailey, BosRP44143
75Justin Masterson, CleSP5464150Tyler Skaggs, AriSP106NR

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[h=1]Futures Game preview; prospects[/h][h=3]Buxton, Sano and Correa highlight an intriguing bunch of participants[/h]By Jim Callis | Baseball America

One of my favorite baseball events takes place Sunday: the annual All-Star Futures Game, which features 52 of baseball's best prospects. At no other time during the year can you see as many future stars on a field at one time.

And who are the best fantasy prospects in the Futures Game? I'll list the top 10 in order, starting with the game's most electric prospect, fantasy or otherwise:

1. Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins (Estimated time of arrival: 2015). He's following the Mike Trout development path -- and showing more power at the same stage.

<OFFER>2. Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins (ETA: 2014). Bryce Harper's successor as the game's most prodigious power prospect.</OFFER>

3. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros (ETA: 2015). The No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft is reminiscent of Manny Machado.

4. Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins (ETA: late 2013). Has more offensive upside than the position players the Marlins have already promoted this year (Derek Dietrich, Adeiny Hechavarria, Marcell Ozuna).

5. Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (ETA: 2014). Proving that his 2012 breakout was no fluke and that his 20-20 potential is real.

6. Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago Cubs (ETA: 2015). The $30 million Cuban defector has 30-homer power.

7. Addison Russell, SS, Oakland Athletics (ETA: 2015). Could be a rare five-tool shortstop.

8. Noah Syndergaard, SP, New York Mets (ETA: 2014). Part of the R.A. Dickey trade, Syndergaard has shown more polish in the minors than Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler did.

9. Delino DeShields Jr., 2B, Astros (ETA: 2015). Might be an even more productive base stealer than his father.

10. Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (ETA: 2014). He's not Yasiel Puig, but he is another toolsy Dodgers outfielder.

So what about Xander Bogaerts, Archie Bradley, Billy Hamilton, George Springer and Taijuan Walker? Well, I didn't include them because they're already part of our weekly installment of the top fantasy prospects for 2013.

[h=3]1. Nick Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers (Last week's rank: 1)[/h]
Season totals: .283/.357/.453, 11 HRs, 47 RBIs, 3 SB in 95 games at Triple-A Toledo.
Update: After strafing pitchers throughout June, Castellanos has cooled off somewhat, enduring hitless games each of the past three days. But he has a good excuse for being distracted: His wife is about to give birth to their first child, which prompted him to bow out of the July 17 Triple-A all-star game.
Prognosis: The Tigers still haven't pulled away in the American League Central, and Andy Dirks still isn't producing in left field. Castellanos has made strides with his power and discipline, and he deserves the left-field job.

[h=3]2. Dan Straily, SP, Oakland Athletics (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: 3-1 record, 1.46 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 26 K's in 24 2/3 IP (4 starts) at Triple-A Sacramento.
Update: Straily beat the Pirates on Tuesday, allowing one run in 6 1/3 innings to improve his big league record to 6-2 with a 4.28 ERA. But the A's won't need a fifth starter again until late July, so they sent Straily to Triple-A and promoted Sonny Gray to bolster their bullpen.
Prognosis: Straily doesn't have overpowering stuff or a ceiling higher than a No. 3 or 4 starter, but he misses bats -- leading the minors in strikeouts last year -- and has been effective for Oakland. He won't return to the majors for a couple of weeks, but he should provide steady starts once he does.

[h=3]3. Tyler Skaggs, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: 6-6 record, 4.26 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 87 K's in 78 IP (13 games, 11 starts) at Triple-A Reno.
Update: Skaggs threw eight shutout innings to beat the Colorado Rockies on July 5 then got knocked around Wednesday by the Dodgers. His big league record is 2-1 with a 4.03 ERA in five starts this year. The Diamondbacks won't need a fifth starter until after the All-Star break and their bullpen has been overworked, so they shipped Skaggs to high Class A (to keep him on a regular schedule) and called up Eury De La Rosa.
Prognosis: Skaggs has the stuff and command to succeed in the majors, and he has looked brilliant at times with Arizona. The Diamondbacks continue to lead the National League West despite a shortage of consistent, healthy starters, so Skaggs should get another opportunity to contribute soon.

[h=3]4. Michael Wacha, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: 2)[/h]
Season totals: 4-2 record, 2.78 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 52 K's in 68 IP (12 starts) at Triple-A Memphis.
Update: Wacha is easing back into the Memphis rotation after getting two starts off to keep his innings down in his first full pro season. In his second start after the layoff (Wednesday), he threw 56 of 88 pitches for strikes and worked five solid innings.
Prognosis: The Cardinals have the best record in baseball, but their rotation hasn't been sharp recently and still lacks a clear No. 5 starter. With his talent and a strong team behind him, Wacha could rack up several second-half wins once he returns to the big leagues.

[h=3]5. Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians (Last week's rank: 4)[/h]
Season totals: 4-2 record, 4.06 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 72 K's in 77 2/3 IP (14 starts) at Triple-A Columbus.
Update: Bauer did a better job of throwing strikes Monday, giving up just two walks in 6 1/3 innings for Columbus, but he's still trying to figure out his command, as he surrendered a season-high 10 hits. At least that was an improvement over his previous outing, when he gave up five runs and recorded just two outs in a big league start against the Chicago White Sox.
Prognosis: The Indians continue to hang around in the AL Central, and Bauer has the stuff to make a difference if he learns to harness it better. Danny Salazar beat the Toronto Blue Jays in his major league debut Thursday, but Cleveland still needs more rotation help.

[h=3]6. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox (Last week's rank: 7)[/h]
Season totals: .267/.357/.475, 7 HRs, 19 RBIs, 2 SB in 28 games at Triple-A Pawtucket; .311/.407/.502, 6 HRs, 35 RBIs, 5 SB in 56 games at Double-A Portland.
Update: Bogaerts is only 20, but he looks comfortable in Triple-A, where his numbers continue to climb. He has hit safely in his past six games and homered in three of them.
Prognosis: The Red Sox continue to lead the AL East despite a revolving door at third base, where they've played Brandon Snyder and Brock Holt during the past couple of weeks. Bogaerts has seen his first pro action at the hot corner in Triple-A and could claim Boston's third-base job by the end of the season.

[h=3]7. Taijuan Walker, SP, Seattle Mariners (Last week's rank: 8)[/h]
Season totals: 3-0 record, 0.56 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 16 K's in 16 IP (three starts) at Triple-A Tacoma; 4-7 record, 2.46 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 96 K's in 84 IP (14 starts) at Double-A Jackson.
Update: It took three Triple-A starts before anyone could score off Walker, who has given up just one run in his past 16 innings. The best pitching prospect in the minors, he needs to fine-tune his command, and he's making strides in that department.
Prognosis: The back of the Mariners' rotation is a mess, and it didn't get any prettier Thursday when the Red Sox shelled Erasmo Ramirez in his first big league start of 2013. If Walker keeps throwing strikes, he'll be the next phenom summoned to Seattle.

[h=3]8. George Springer, OF, Houston Astros (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: .417/.525/.917, 7 HRs, 17 RBIs, 5 SB in 14 games at Triple-A Oklahoma City; .297/.399/.579, 19 HRs, 55 RBIs, 23 SB in 73 games at Double-A Corpus Christi.
Update: The Astros planned to keep Springer, their 2011 first-round pick and the best athlete in their system, in Double-A for most or all of 2013. But he forced a promotion to Triple-A two weeks ago and has destroyed Pacific Coast League pitching, with five homers in his past five games, including multihomer contests on Saturday and Tuesday. His 26 total home runs are just two shy of the minor league lead.
Prognosis: Houston doesn't have to protect Springer on the 40-man roster this offseason, so it might be tempting to leave him in the minors all year. But if he keeps hitting like this, the Astros will have trouble delaying the inevitable, which is Springer replacing Brandon Barnes in center field.

[h=3]9. Archie Bradley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week's rank: 9)[/h]
Season totals: 6-4 record, 2.37 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 72 K's in 76 IP (13 starts) at Double-A Mobile; 2-0 record, 1.26 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 43 K's in 28 2/3 IP (five starts) at high Class A Visalia.
Update: Bradley has hit a bit of a wall in Double-A, losing three of his past four starts and battling his command more than he did in high Class A. There's nothing wrong with his stuff, however, as he might have the best fastball-curveball combo in the minors.
Prognosis: As noted with Skaggs, the Diamondbacks need pitching help. Arizona GM Kevin Towers said this week that he won't part with Bradley in a trade for a veteran arm and won't use him to plug a bullpen hole, leaving open the possibility that he could join the big league rotation at some point this season.

[h=3]10. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: 10)[/h]
Season totals: .245/.300/.334, 5 HRs, 29 RBIs, 51 SB in 82 games at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: Hamilton missed a week after injuring his wrist in batting practice, returning to action last Saturday. He continued to struggle in his attempts to solve Triple-A pitching, going 5-for-23 (.217) with seven strikeouts. He was even thrown out in two of his four steal attempts.
Prognosis: Hamilton's bat isn't ready for the majors, but he's the quickest player in baseball and the best defensive center fielder that Cincinnati has. He's unlikely to become an every-day player in the big leagues this year, but even with sporadic playing time, he still could steal 10 or more bases per month for the Reds. That's why he's still on this list.

Called up (with last week's rank): Sonny Gray, SP, Athletics (3); Grant Green, 2B, Athletics (5); Carlos Martinez, SP, Cardinals (6).
 

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