MLB Fantasy News 2013

HacheMan · Sep 4, 2013

Bits: Billy Hamilton makes debut

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Cincinnati Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton certainly played a key role in his big league debut Tuesday night, scoring the lone run in a victory over the St. Louis Cardinals. Of course, Hamilton did not bat in the game, or play the field, but he entered as a pinch runner for outfielder Ryan Ludwick, quickly stole a base against the great Yadier Molina and came around to score on a Todd Frazier hit, the first time anyone had scored the only run in a 1-0 game in their debut in more than 50 years.

Fantasy owners with visions of the next Vince Coleman dancing in their heads are going to add Hamilton today, and look, if you’re desperate for stolen bases, go for it. The guy is obviously ridiculously fast. He’s just not going to play that much. Reds manager Dusty Baker is famous for sticking with his veterans, and this team is right smack in a pennant race. Hamilton was a better prospect a year ago, frankly, when he swiped an incredible 155 bases at two minor league levels, hit a bit, showed some plate discipline and was a shortstop. At Triple-A Louisville this season he stole only 75 bags but went the other direction at the plate, dropping 100 points of on-base percentage, while learning center field. There were reports the Reds -- probably Baker -- didn’t want to promote him at all.
Well, Hamilton is here and from a real baseball perspective, his presence alters late-game strategy. The Cardinals knew he was going to run and couldn’t stop it. But fantasy owners have to know the playing time just won’t be there. Ludwick handles left field these days for the Reds, and while he’s nothing special, he and Chris Heisey are going to keep handling things. Shin-Soo Choo, whether competent or not defensively in center field, continues to walk like a madman and isn’t going to sit. Right fielder Jay Bruce certainly isn’t going to sit, either. And don’t ask about shortstop Zack Cozart; Dusty loves him and probably isn’t aware of his .285 OBP, and Hamilton isn’t a shortstop any longer.
The point is, Hamilton could be rewarded with the occasional outfield start, but look at how the Boston Red Sox have barely used infielder Xander Bogaerts, a superior prospect. Hamilton is a pinch runner, folks, and that’s about it. I’ve spoken to Hamilton and seen him in person several times in the past two seasons and while I’m rooting for a 100-steal season someday -- it has been a while -- I’m skeptical he can earn a regular job and keep it. Sure, Choo is likely to be elsewhere in 2014, opening up center field, but fantasy owners went through this in the past year with Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Dee Gordon, too. You can’t steal first base. Hamilton can steal second late in close games when someone else makes it to first base, probably Ludwick, Frazier or a catcher, but this is not a must-add in fantasy. He sure is exciting, but just not that valuable as he steals his 10 September bases, yet doesn’t even bat that many times.
Box score bits (NL): Atlanta Braves catcher/outfielder Evan Gattis homered among his three hits Tuesday. It had been a while since Gattis had done anything; he was in the minors over the weekend and had hit just .225 with one home run since the All-Star break. Don’t assume he’s fixed now, but as a second catcher in a deep league, take a chance. … Washington Nationals outfielder Corey Brown blasted a second-deck home run in Philly Tuesday in his first big league at-bat of the season. Brown hit 44 home runs and stole 30 bases at Triple-A Syracuse the past two seasons, and if the limping Bryce Harper is shut down (as soon as the Nationals are eliminated), Brown should play. Keep an eye out in NL-only formats. … Nothing can stop Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Ricky Nolasco, not even Coors Field. Nolasco tossed six innings of two-run ball against the Colorado Rockies, and now is 7-1 in 11 Dodgers starts with a 2.27 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. It’s a terrific run we should all buy into. … The Rockies got shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and outfielder Dexter Fowler back in the lineup -- Fowler has been terrible since the All-Star break, by the way -- and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez came off the DL after missing a month, but did not bat. His injured finger remains a problem. Activate him to lineups, but be wary of a pending shutdown again.
Box score bits (AL): The Tampa Bay Rays welcomed back lefty Matt Moore, and he tossed 5 1/3 worrisome innings at Anaheim. Moore permitted only one unearned run, but his command was off. He walked four. Activate him for the weekend outing at Seattle, but expect baserunners. … Perhaps it seemed strange to see Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier batting third in Tuesday’s game, but Dozier blasted his 17th home run in the first inning and no other Twin has more. Dozier has homered four times in the past six games, and while he hasn’t done much base stealing since May, a middle infielder with this much pop should be owned in every league. Dozier looks like a young Ian Desmond statistically. … Boston Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, the top base stealer in the big leagues with 51 (next is 40), sat Tuesday with a bruised left thumb. It’s possible this could affect him at the plate when he returns to the lineup. … Keep New York Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda owned, but including Tuesday’s runner-filled outing (seven hits, two walks, four runs in 6 1/3 innings) he has given up 23 runs (19 earned) over four outings. He is 38, after all. Those in daily leagues might want to sit him this Sunday against the Red Sox.

HacheMan · Sep 5, 2013

Disappointing Sandoval homers thrice

Eric Karabell

San Francisco Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval is listed on his player card at 240 pounds, and perhaps that’s accurate, but I’m taking the over. Kung Fu Panda, as he is affectionately known, has battled weight issues in the past, and it’s likely affected performance, but there’s no question the guy can hit when he wants to. We saw it last October when he smacked three home runs in Game 1 of the World Series -- two of them off Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander -- and again Wednesday when he took three different San Diego Padres right-handed relief pitchers deep for another mammoth performance.

In between those three-homer games, Sandoval has been a modest disappointment, but that shouldn’t come as much surprise. Sandoval has done this to the Giants and fantasy owners before, you know. He was an eighth-round choice in ESPN average live drafts this season, sure to be somewhat overrated from his 2012 playoff success, and entered Wednesday outside the top 15 third basemen on the season Player Rater, worse than Matt Dominguez and Kelly Johnson, among others. Sandoval has hit for batting average and power in the past -- occasionally simultaneously -- and he’s certainly capable of being worth that top-100 pick in 2014 as he enters a contract year. It appears he simply needs to control his weight.

On Wednesday, Sandoval, who had hit a mere two home runs since the start of June, put on his show in one of the more extreme pitcher’s parks in the sport (Petco Park), a reminder that with him it’s rarely about external challenges, but personal ones. He’s battled injuries this season to his back and feet, and certainly his weight could have played a role there, too. This will end up a relatively lost season for the Giants and their third baseman, but you know what each is capable of in the future. Despite his disappointing performance overall, Sandoval will be right back in my top-10 third base rankings in 2014 because he’s capable of doing so much more. Let’s hope he doesn’t make us wait until next September to show us.

Box score bits (NL): St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Allen Craig left Wednesday’s game prematurely with a left foot sprain and is regarded as day-to-day (aren’t we all?). That allowed Matt Adams to enter the game and become the first fellow ever to blast two home runs in the 14th inning or later of a game. And he didn’t start! Pay attention to Craig updates, but add Adams in deep formats just in case. … Chicago Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardzija keeps missing bats for the strikeouts, but he also allows way too many runs. He’s like the Ryan Dempster of the NL this season. The Miami Marlins lit up the former Notre Dame wide receiver for six runs in six innings Wednesday, spurred by a grand slam from light-hitting shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria. Samardzija’s ERA since the start of July is 5.70. … The Marlins are giving Chris Coghlan, the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year, a chance to play regularly at third base and lead off. He was hitless Wednesday and made an error, and let’s just say durability is not a strength. … New York Mets first baseman/outfielder Lucas Duda homered Wednesday, his 12th of the season. Duda should handle first base against right-handed pitching with Ike Davis out for the season, and he’s made strides this season in plate discipline. That’s cheap power sitting on your waiver wire. … Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Jason Grilli was activated off the disabled list Wednesday and tossed a scoreless inning, though he’s not expected to resume closing duties over Mark Melancon for a few outings.

Box score bits (AL): On Wednesday night, Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Jose Bautista remained owned in 100 percent of ESPN standard leagues, but now that it has been announced his hip injury will end his season, move on unless it’s a keeper format. Bautista finishes with 28 home runs, one more than in 2012, but in those two seasons he averaged only 105 games and hit .251. Not exactly first-round material anymore. … Minnesota Twins outfielder Alex Presley, acquired over the weekend in the Justin Morneau trade, homered Wednesday and continues to lead off. Presley, 28, doesn’t possess big power or speed, but he contributes in those categories. … Oakland Athletics lefty Brett Anderson, a top-30 starting pitcher in 2013 drafts but now hurling in long relief after an injury-plagued (shocker!) season, earned his second save in a week. He didn’t pitch well in either case, but they were long appearances in blowout wins. Don’t expect it to continue. … How about A’s center fielder Coco Crisp? He now has 18 home runs after Wednesday’s blast, but four in five days! Crisp’s 11 home runs last year were his most since 2006. … Chicago White Sox right-hander Erik Johnson tossed six innings in his big league debut at Yankee Stadium Wednesday, allowing five runs (three earned). Johnson posted terrific numbers in the minors this season, and should get a few more outings to prove he’s worth a deep-league investment in 2014. … The Boston Red Sox exploded for eight home runs Wednesday, with designated hitter David Ortiz swatting two and knocking in four runs. Ortiz is now on pace for another 30-100 season, despite missing the first three weeks of the season with a heel injury. This is a top-100 player for 2014 drafts, despite his age and lack of first base position eligibility.

HacheMan · Sep 8, 2013

Bullpen Report: Is Uehara a top-5 closer?

Eric Karabell

One could argue that no relief pitcher is playing a larger role in the pennant races these days than Boston Red Sox right-hander Koji Uehara. The Red Sox scored off the great Mariano Rivera in the ninth inning late Thursday night -- his sixth blown save -- then scored again off unhappy Joba Chamberlain in the 10th inning to give the dominant Uehara a save opportunity, which he, of course, handled seamlessly. The guy not only hasn't allowed a run since July 6 -- that's a 26-inning scoreless streak -- but in his 21 innings since July 19, he has permitted five hits and one walk. He has allowed only one baserunner over his past 10 outings. That's incredible.

I argue this pretty much every time analysts, some of whom played in the majors, question whether a terrific setup reliever like Uehara can handle closing better than say, Kevin Gregg: Just look at Uehara's statistics. See anything wrong there? Uehara struck out two of the Yankees he faced Thursday and now boasts a ridiculous 0.27 ERA as the team's closer, and a 1.14 ERA and 0.60 WHIP overall, with a monster strikeout rate. And all this at 38 years old. He's owned in all leagues, but it's fair to ask whether he's a top-five fantasy closing option for 2014. After all, we have the renowned big three of Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman, and no obvious guy after that for fantasy owners to covet with Rivera playing golf next season -- though manager Joe Girardi wants him back -- and Jonathan Papelbon perhaps coming off winter ball because he was so underutilized this season.

<OFFER>I'm being facetious with Papelbon, but seriously, who's No. 4 next year? There's Joe Nathan, Greg Holland … why not Uehara? It was originally reported that he had signed a one-year contract for 2013, but it turns out he had a vesting option for 2014 that likely will be exercised. The Red Sox can't make a good case to see what rehabbing Joel Hanrahan or Andrew Bailey could do in the role when their current closer throws 1-2-3 innings nearly every outing, and is right there with Kimbrel for leading all relief pitchers in Wins Above Replacement for the season. In fact, remove the gaudy save total from Kimbrel and Uehara's numbers are the same, with better hit and walk rates. He does it without big-time velocity -- his average fastball has been slower than 90 mph each season, which is unheard of for a closer-- but rather with deception, movement and impeccable command. His career WHIP over 275 innings in the States is 0.847. Ladies and gentlemen, this is the early leader for the No. 4 closer spot -- and a potential top-100 pick -- in next year's drafts.

Closer talk: Speaking of Red Sox relievers, former setup man Daniel Bard was picked up by the Chicago Cubs this week. Could he fit into the closer mix in 2014? Well, Bard was a top holds guy for a few years, striking out many hitters in the process. He attempted the transition to starting in 2012, and it went horribly wrong. Now he's just clinging to a career after a lost season. Just remember the name if he turns things around, because the arm is still there. … The Pittsburgh Pirates haven't announced when former closer Jason Grilli, now healthy, will supplant Mark Melancon for the ninth-inning role, but I bet it happens within the next week. … Amazing stat: Oakland starter/reliever Brett Anderson has two saves in the past week, both in long-relief roles. Philadelphia Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon has just four saves since the All-Star break. … I'm done with the Houston Astros bullpen. Seriously, don't even bother now. I think Josh Fields is the guy, but they switch the hierarchy with regularity. … I feel like every time I see Washington Nationals closer Rafael Soriano pitch, he's getting hit hard, yet he hasn't allowed a run in his past five appearances. Still, don't overrate his 40-plus saves in 2014 drafts. This guy is due for a statistical fall. … Mariano Rivera didn't struggle Thursday night. Two-out hit, stolen base, catcher error, blooper RBI. He's fine.

Box score bits (AL): Kansas City Royals outfielder Lorenzo Cain returned from his one-month disabled list stint for a strained oblique and was a defensive replacement Thursday. Then he was pinch hit for, a sign that perhaps Cain isn't ready to hit or play regularly. He's not worth adding in standard leagues. … Seattle Mariners outfielder Raul Ibanez smacked a game-tying home run in the ninth inning off Greg Holland, just his second blast since mid-July. Ibanez remains on pace for 30 home runs, but don't expect many more this month. … Chicago White Sox lefty Jose Quintana allowed three solo home runs to lose in Baltimore on Thursday, but he continues to prove reliable. Five of Quintana's past six starts, excluding the rain-shortened one Monday, have been quality starts. … Angels manager Mike Scioscia is not having a good season -- he might not be managing the Halos in 2014 -- but you have to love the move Thursday of hitting catcher Chris Iannetta and his .354 OBP second. Erick Aybar, the leadoff man Thursday, has a .306 OBP. Hey, catchers can be lineup-setters, too.

Box score bits (NL): St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Lance Lynn continued his erratic ways Thursday, serving up three home runs in five messy innings at Cincinnati. He walked four and allowed seven hits, and his season ERA is 4.37. The last time Lynn, who has been stuck on 13 wins for six consecutive starts, permitted fewer than four runs in an outing was Aug. 9. Feel free to bench him or move on. … Cardinals third baseman David Freese took Reds lefty Tony Cingrani deep, just his seventh home run of the year. Freese hit 20 home runs a year ago, so his 2013 qualifies as disappointing, and it's likely the Cardinals will move on and keep Matt Carpenter at the hot corner in 2014 so Kolten Wong can handle second base. … As for Cingrani, he looked fine in his first outing off the DL (lower back strain), striking out seven and allowing two runs in 5 1/3 innings. Cingrani threw 79 pitches. He even stole a base! The latest rumor has Johnny Cueto being ticketed for bullpen duty if/when he returns from his DL stint, so Cingrani seems safe.

Have a great weekend!

HacheMan · Sep 9, 2013

Park Factors: Notable 2013 changes

By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

Remember back in the spring when one of the main questions coming into the 2013 campaign was how the new dimensions at Petco Park and Safeco Field would affect Padres and Mariners hitters and pitchers? Well, now that each team has had 74 and 72 games, respectively, at home, we can at least begin to answer that question. And the evidence suggests that the changes have made a difference.

Sure, the numbers will adjust a little with a full season's worth (or more) of games, but the sample size is sufficient enough to at least identify some interesting trends that are in some cases actionable. For instance, there are examples in which the data can be used to help make keeper or dynasty decisions for those who play in such leagues.

Now we're going to put 2013 park factors under the microscope. We'll focus primarily on the parks with recent changes, including the two already mentioned and Citi Field. In addition, we'll introduce how some new defensive trends could influence park factors.

<OFFER></OFFER>
[h=3]Introduction: What is a park factor?[/h]
A park factor quantifies how a park's unique dimensions and climate influence hitting and run-scoring. The formula is designed to flesh out performance bias. That is, how strong or weak a team's offense or pitching is should not impact the park factor.

A shortcoming of the calculation is sometimes the arbitrary end points of one season are not sufficient to completely remove the bias. As such, park factors are presented as a three-year rolling average.

At this point, it's perfectly reasonable to question how useful looking at 140-plus games of one season is, considering park factors are most useful when encompassing three years of data. The key note here, though, is that we're looking only for trends, and will still be rather loose with respect to how we apply the observations. In this technological and social media age, when information is so readily attainable, it's difficult to get an edge. A trend can be useful if there is a greater than 50 percent chance it is something more. For that, I'd like to cite my colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft, who delved into this aspect of park factors shortly after Target Field first opened (in 2010). If the trend appears as though it yields an edge, it's worth taking into consideration.

The park factor used here will be that of Baseball Info Solutions (BIS). There are a few different variants of the park factor calculation, each attempting to flesh out bias. In particular, the BIS park factors incorporate the number of at-bats in the calculation of the home run factor, whereas some just use home runs, with no adjustment. The runs park factor uses the number of games, and in most seasons, this evens out at 81. However, occasionally teams play special series out of the country, which should be considered away games for both teams, as well as the occasional makeup game played in the other team's park due to scheduling.

A park factor of 100 signifies a neutral environment relative to all the different venues. A number higher than 100 is favorable to hitters; a number under 100 is favorable to pitchers. For example, a home run park factor of 120 means there's a 20 percent increase in homers over a neutral park. Thus, if a hitter is projected to hit 30 homers in a neutral park, he would be projected to hit 36 in a venue with a home run factor of 120. Since he plays only half his games at home, the real projection would be 33. Most projection systems assume the away parks balance out to be neutral.

For the sake of this discussion, we'll focus on home run factors for hitters and runs factors for pitchers. From a fantasy baseball sense, these are the most integral factors driving the performance of most players.

[h=3]Petco Park: Still a pitchers' paradise?[/h]Entering the 2013 campaign, the home run factor for Petco Park was 77, meaning homers were depressed significantly. With a little less than one month to go, it appears the fences being moved in has indeed resulted in more homers: The 2013 home run factor is exactly neutral at 100. This bodes well for Will Venable and Jedd Gyorko, along with Kyle Blanks and Yonder Alonso.

However, the runs factor has remained fundamentally the same; it was 85 coming into the season and sits at 84 with three weeks left in it. It's not uncommon for there to be an apparent disconnect between homers and runs scored, as there are other factors influencing runs, such as foul territory and strikeouts. Perhaps due to weather and climate conditions, strikeout park factors also differ from season to season. Perhaps the new dimensions rendered a different deployment of the outfielders, resulting in more fly balls being caught. The point is, it's not alarming at all that more homers left the yard but run-scoring has remained stagnant. This, of course, is welcome news to up-and-coming Padres hurlers such as Robbie Erlin, Cory Luebke and Casey Kelly, along with the rest of the staff.

[h=3]Safeco Field: Is it still "safe" for pitchers?[/h]
Coming into the 2013 season, Safeco's home run factor was 75, even more detrimental than Petco Park's was. While it has gotten better for Mariners hitters, it's still a homer-gobbling 83.

But here's the interesting part: Unlike Petco, run-scoring is up, as evidenced by the runs factor increasing from 78 to a near-neutral 97. That has led to nearly all pitchers not nicknamed "King" seeing their ERA tick up just a tad due to the new dimensions. It remains to be seen if this is just a one-year anomaly or if Safeco Field is indeed neutral toward pitching.

This doesn't mean Seattle pitchers should be avoided. Far from it. The park still is a little pitcher-friendly. It just means that the inherent trust in all Mariners hurlers at home should be tempered, especially if you stream starters. Not to mention, it might not be as safe a play for road starters, though the Seattle offense certainly isn't imposing by any means.

This is the perfect time to reinforce that the park factor is independent of the quality of the hitters or pitchers. A potent lineup (such as the St. Louis Cardinals') can score plenty of runs in a pitchers' park. It's just that it would score even more runs in a favorable hitting venue. Conversely, despite playing half their games at hitters' haven U.S. Cellular Field, the Chicago White Sox have scored the second-fewest runs in the league.

[h=3]Citi Field: A year later[/h]
Citi Field opened in 2009 and greatly depressed home runs its first three seasons. Then, before the 2012 campaign, the fences were moved in and lowered, leading to a park that was actually homer-friendly, with a home run factor of 109. And following another 66 games there this season, these numbers look to be repeated; the current Citi Field home run factor is 107. Young Mets hitters Wilmer Flores and Travis d'Arnaud are no doubt pleased to see this.

But what about young Mets hurlers Zack Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero, as well as other promising arms in the Mets' system? Are they pleased? Well, it should be some consolation to them that Citi Field still hinders runs, as illustrated by the ballpark's runs factor of 87, the same as it was last year. In other words, Citi Field is playing almost exactly as it did the year following its renovation: more home runs, but few overall runs.

[h=4]Home runs: On the rise[/h]Here are six ballparks in which home run factors have increased by more than 10 percent this season.

Park	2010-2012 HR index	2013 HR index	Difference
Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)	107	144	+37
PETCO Park (San Diego)	77	100	+23
Minute Maid Park (Houston)	106	123	+17
Wrigley Field (Chicago)	101	114	+13
Rogers Centre (Toronto)	117	128	+11
Kaufmann Stadium (Kansas City)	86	97	+11

Historically, Citizens Bank Park has fluctuated, so while an increase of 37 percent might seem extreme, the index is more consistent with the ballpark's history after it dipped for a couple of seasons. … The increase in Kaufmann Stadium might seem intriguing, especially given the maturation of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez, along with younger veterans Billy Butler and Alex Gordon. But it's just too soon to glean anything from the bump. For years, Kaufmann has depressed homers, and as Tristan's research showed, once a park displays a characteristic, it usually retains it, with reasonable variance. Eleven percent is reasonable.

[h=4]Home runs: On the decline[/h]Here are five ballparks in which home run factors have decreased by more than 10 percent this season.

Park	2010-2012 HR index	2013 HR index	Difference
Yankee Stadium (New York)	128	116	-12
PNC Park (Pittsburgh)	75	60	-15
Nationals Park (Washington)	104	83	-21
Rangers Ballpark (Arlington, Texas)	124	98	-26
Coors Field (Colorado)	138	107	-31

Extreme hitters' parks tend to exhibit greater fluctuation, which accounts for the numbers at Yankee Stadium, Arlington and Coors Field. … PNC Park is akin to Kaufmann Stadium above; let's give it another year. Besides, it's not like PNC was exactly favorable even before this season. … The intriguing change is Nationals Park. Intuitively, most expected it to play bigger than it has. Perhaps this is the beginning of a correction. This doesn't mean you should drop Bryce Harper from your dynasty squads, but it could mean tempering expectations for such young sluggers as Anthony Rendon, at least for the next year or so.

[h=4]Runs scored: On the rise[/h]There are only three ballparks that have an index increase in runs of more than 10 percent.

Park	2010-2012 Runs index	2013 Runs index	Difference
Safeco Field (Seattle)	78	97	19
Wrigley Field (Chicago Cubs)	104	117	13
Minute Maid Park (Houston)	96	109	13

Safeco Field has already been discussed. … Both Wrigley Field and Minute Maid Park exhibited an increase in homers, and in this case the runs are following that. There's really nothing that applicable to fantasy, though, as both places are still in the neutral range, so the end result won't be significant.

[h=4]Runs scored: On the decline[/h]Just four ballparks have an index decrease in runs more than 10 percent.

Park	2010-2012 Runs index	2013 Runs index	Difference
Fenway Park (Boston)	115	100	-15
Chase Field (Arizona)	112	96	-16
Coors Field (Colorado)	143	124	-19
Rangers Ballpark (Arlington, Texas)	122	96	-26

All four of these parks are historically tough on pitchers, so all we're seeing is the fluctuation that is inherent at the extremes. In other words, there shouldn't be any pitchers with a better ranking next spring because they suddenly work in a pitchers' park.

[h=3]Sometimes it's OK to be defensive …[/h]
As I emphasized above, park factors are computed in a manner such that the quality of the hitting and pitching is irrelevant, at least in theory. However, the same might not be true with respect to defense. That is, the quality of a team's defense could in fact get rolled into the park factors, especially for runs. While it's true that since the same defense is deployed at home and on the road, this should be fleshed out just like all other biases -- and the nuances of a home park may well result in a team playing better defense at home than on the road.

This is all still in an embryonic stage, but as defensive quantification improves, we might have to take a hard look at whether certain park factors should be altered based on defense. It may be that globally everything comes out in the wash and a better defense results in fewer runs both at home and on the road. But chances are, once we advance defensive data collection and analysis, park factors will not be applied universally; rather it will be customized to each pitcher rather than general theories such as fly ball pitchers being more hurt in small parks than ground ball pitchers. The defense supporting a fly ball pitcher and a ground ball pitcher can be tempered by the home park and ultimately might impact park factors.

The biggest change in defense is the severe increase in the number of teams and instances when a shift is deployed. Loosely defined, a shift is when a fielder moves out of his standard coverage area and into another. The most common shift is that used against David Ortiz and other lumbering, power-hitting lefties, in which a middle infielder moves into a rover position in right center while the third baseman plays close to where the shortstop usually plays. Extensive hit charts map out where every player puts the ball in play and some teams are making a concerted effort to position their defenders accordingly.

Earlier this summer, John Dewan of the aforementioned Baseball Info Solutions shared some interesting data they are tracking concerning the proliferation of shifts. This is published on Bill James Online, titled "Who's Shifting and Who's Not," and it shows the increase in shifts over the past few seasons:

2010: 2,465 total shifts
2011: 2,358
2012: 4,577
2013*: 7,586
* Prorated based on data as of July 25, 2013.

I've been tracking this, as well, but to demonstrate one of the possible repercussions of these shifts, I'll cite and update the work of my colleague Jason Collette from Baseball Prospectus, who beat me to the punch and noted the significant improvement in the batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of line drives and fly balls. Here is a table showing the BABIP of the various trajectories the past five seasons:

Result	2013 BABIP	2012	2011	2010	2009
Ground balls	.245	.238	.238	.231	.238
Fly balls	.099	.129	.137	.139	.136
Line drives	.668	.711	.720	.714	.730

Note how stable the fly ball BABIPs were from 2009 to 2012 and how much the number has dropped this season. As mentioned, one possibility is the shift. I prefer to call it only a "possibility" until the season is complete and other potential reasons can be investigated, such as a possible decrease in hard-hit balls. Nevertheless, it's quite telling that the drop is consistent with the increase in defensive shifts. A team-by-team survey of BABIP versus number of shifts will further elucidate the cause-and-effect nature of the shift, but I do credit Collette for being the first to bring to light the above trend.

[h=3]Tying it all together[/h]
Regardless of whether park factors will need to be tweaked to account for defense, at the end of the day, park factors and defensive adjustments will work in unison to refine the current player projection model. As the collection and analysis of both batted-ball data and defensive quantification improves, projection engines will incorporate these findings with the goal of reducing the variance associated with the range of expected player performance.

This will be applicable to both hitters and pitchers. As we get a better grasp of how the shift impacts Big Papi and similar players, we can better anticipate the result when additional teams begin using it. Similarly, if we have a better handle on the defense backing a pitcher, we can more easily discern skill from luck and thus fine-tune what is expected going forward.

HacheMan · Sep 9, 2013

Bits: Ellsbury sidelined with foot injury

Eric Karabell

Fantasy owners certainly can’t complain about Boston Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury's production this season. Ellsbury leads the big leagues in stolen bases with 52, and he’s sprinkled in a .299 batting average, eight home runs and 89 runs scored. He's also fifth on the ESPN Fantasy Player Rater. However, like St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Allen Craig just days before, Ellsbury might be done helping fantasy owners thanks to the weekend news of a compression fracture in his right foot.

The lack of clarity might frustrate fantasy owners the most. What if he isn’t actually done? What if he comes back in two weeks and runs wild? The Red Sox, of course, can’t say for sure, but with a large AL East lead, one would think Ellsbury wouldn’t be pushed hard. The Red Sox called up prospect Jackie Bradley Jr., the fantasy wunderkind from early April who quickly became a dropped dud, and he singled in four at-bats Saturday and singled in two at-bats Sunday, drawing a walk in each game. He doesn’t possess much power or stolen-base potential, though. Ellsbury was dealing with a sore thumb last week, had three hits and a stolen base Thursday, but hurt his foot during the game. Originally reported as inflammation, it’s obviously something worse. But Bradley is capable of getting on base and defending well, and his play might help determine when Ellsbury returns.
It’s possible that both Ellsbury and Craig, hitting .315 and sitting on 97 RBIs but hampered by a left foot sprain, return this month. But if you need the bench space immediately, you have to move on from these guys, whether it’s a head-to-head format or roto. Frankly, with so many fantasy owners moving on to football, free agency isn’t lacking for power or speed helpers. For speed, there’s always Cincinnati Reds phenom Billy Hamilton, the greatest pinch runner since Herb Washington in the 1970s. Hamilton has yet to bat in a big league game, but he’s been helpful in steals and runs, and it’s not like he’s hurting your batting average.
I’d prefer Kansas City Royals outfielder Jarrod Dyson, hitting .318 with seven steals, five runs and four RBIs in the past two weeks alone. He’s readily available in ESPN standard leagues, as are Atlanta Braves outfielder Jordan Schafer, Minnesota Twins shortstop Pedro Florimon, Miami Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich, Colorado Rockies second baseman DJ LeMahieu and Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Adam Eaton.
Box score bits (AL): Speaking of speed, Chicago White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez has been running all season, even while hitting in the No. 3 lineup spot. Ramirez stole his 30th base Sunday. He has six steals in 119 at-bats in the third spot. … Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer hit his 16th home run Sunday, and singled twice. His .302 batting average is the highest it has been since the first week of the season. This is definitely a top-10 first baseman for 2014 drafts. … Underrated Royals lefty Bruce Chen handled the Detroit Tigers on Sunday, permitting two runs over seven innings for his seventh win in nine decisions. Chen is barely 10 percent owned, but his ERA is 2.79 over 100 innings. … Toronto Blue Jays erratic swingman Esmil Rogers won both his starts this week without allowing a run; on Sunday he permitted three hits over 7 2/3 innings in Minnesota. Earlier in the week the Diamondbacks earned one hit off him in 6 1/3 innings. Rogers isn’t safe to own and activate, but keep an eye on him in deeper formats. … Forget about New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter in standard leagues. The Captain is still having ankle problems and is hitting .190. … Give Tampa Bay Rays first baseman James Loney credit; few thought the .315 batting average he amassed prior to the All-Star break would stick. Well, with his three hits Sunday he’s hitting .288 since then. Not exactly Adam Dunn. … Los Angeles Angels outfielder Kole Calhoun homered Sunday, his sixth in 38 games. He also has knocked in a run in 11 of 12 starts. Has your worst outfielder done this?
Box score bits (NL): Philadelphia Phillies first baseman/outfielder Darin Ruf had the winning hit Sunday, an eighth-inning home run, his 13th of the year. Say what you will about Ruf’s long-term future, but his 11 home runs since August began are eclipsed only by Yankees outfielder Alfonso Soriano. … Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Yovani Gallardo delivered his fifth consecutive quality start Sunday, permitting one run over seven innings at Wrigley Field. Gallardo is available in roughly a third of ESPN standard leagues, and he boasts a 1.35 ERA since returning from the disabled list in mid-August. … In case you missed it, San Francisco Giants right-hander Yusmeiro Petit, a journeyman with a career ERA on the wrong side of 5, nearly tossed a perfect game Friday night against the Diamondbacks. An Eric Chavez single with two outs in the ninth broke it up. Petit has pitched well in his brief 2013 time in the majors, and comes mildly recommended for his next outing, at home against the Rockies. … Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Starling Marte returned from his DL stint this weekend but did not play. Marte’s injured finger remains a problem at the plate, and the Pirates might use him the way the Reds have employed Hamilton. … Pirates right-hander Charlie Morton entered Sunday having allowed no more than two runs in any of his past six outings, winning four. Then the Cardinals clubbed him for five earned runs before the second inning ended. The Pirates say Morton left with foot discomfort. It’s dangerous to trust him even if he makes his next start.

HacheMan · Sep 10, 2013

Bits: Josmil Pinto continues to rake

Eric Karabell

Perhaps it’s a Minnesota thing. Major league catchers are hitting a disappointing .247 this season, with a .703 OPS, but the Minnesota Twins laugh at that number. Their catchers are hitting .305 with a .867 OPS. Three-time batting champion Joe Mauer, currently out with a concussion, is hitting .324, and .330 when he’s catching. The organization recently promoted prospect Josmil Pinto for September and he has picked right up where Mauer left off. Pinto smacked three doubles in Monday’s win, giving him a robust .565 batting average after 24 at-bats, and fantasy owners should take notice.

Sure, it’s a bit early to call Pinto the next Mauer -- or any top-10 catcher -- but the 24-year-old hit .309 across two minor league levels this season, with 15 home runs, 32 doubles and perhaps most important 66 walks. His on-base percentage was a Mauer-like .400. Unlike Mauer, Pinto bats right-handed, but it’s clear the organization believes in him; he batted second in the lineup Monday, knocking in a run and scoring two more, while hitting two of his doubles to deep center field off Los Angeles Angels right-hander Jered Weaver. The other double went to deep right field off right-hander J.C. Gutierrez. He’s the No. 7 catcher on the ESPN Player Rater over the past 15 days, which is nice because he got promoted 10 days ago.

By mid-September, several of the catchers fantasy managers have relied on this season are no longer performing at the same level -- Brian McCann, Jason Castro and even Yadier Molina are excellent examples -- and youngsters like Pinto become reasonable short-term pickups. Dropping Molina for Pinto is irrational, but temporarily sitting him for a guy with four multihit games in five starts isn’t. And most people don’t own Molina. I added Pinto in a keeper format as well, just in case Mauer is moved to another position such as first base next season, and he earns the starting job. He’s not a big guy, but he has excellent plate discipline and hits the ball the opposite way. At this position, that’s a start.

As for Mauer, his fantasy owners are mighty frustrated that he last played three weeks ago, and updates clarifying his status have seemed few and far between. I wouldn’t cut Mauer yet, despite the fact the Twins have long been out of any pennant contention and would seem to have little reason to play him. Another batting title seems unlikely, unless Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera hits a major slump. Twins general manager Terry Ryan said over the weekend Mauer is expected back soon, and a .300 batting average is always welcomed. Regardless, it’s nice to see the Twins have depth for that role.

Box score bits (AL): For those scared to use New York Yankees lefty CC Sabathia in Baltimore Monday, I hear ya. But Sabathia pitched fine, allowing four runs (three earned) in 7 1/3 innings. He struck out six. It’s OK to sit him this weekend in Boston, though. He has a 7.15 ERA against the Red Sox in four starts this season. … Nobody should sit Cleveland Indians right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez. He fanned 10 Kansas City Royals over seven walk-free innings Monday, allowing one unearned run. I still won’t draft him among the top 30 starting pitchers in 2014 -- too much WHIP risk -- but the way he looks lately, with double-digit whiffs in three of four starts and a reduced walk rate, he’s a must-own. … Royals outfielder Alex Gordon stole his 10th base Monday! It’s the third consecutive season the safe, durable Gordon has reached double-digits in home runs and steals. … Nick Castellanos earned the start in left field for the Detroit Tigers Monday, hitting a single in three at-bats. Castellanos was promoted from Triple-A Toledo 10 days ago, but this was only his second start. There should be more in the coming weeks, if your league is deep enough. … Both starting pitchers in the Houston Astros-Seattle Mariners game Monday were effective in their final outings of 2013. Houston Astros right-hander Jarred Cosart walked six, and finished with 35 walks and 33 strikeouts in 60 innings (10 starts). Um, the walks are a problem, and make his 1.95 ERA deceiving. Seattle Mariners right-hander Taijuan Walker fanned eight in five innings. He’s only 20, but there is ace upside here. Walker is the preferred 2014 choice.

Box score bits (NL): On Monday night, Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Juan Uribe became the fifth third baseman this season to hit three home runs in a game, blasting Randall Delgado and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Uribe entered play with seven home runs in 116 games, and owned in less than 1 percent of ESPN standard leagues. It’s a bit like Yusmeiro Petit nearly tossing a perfect game. Don’t get too excited about the fantasy potential. … Chicago Cubs lefty Travis Wood tossed seven shutout innings at Cincinnati Monday, earning his ninth win in 20 decisions. For some reason Wood, with a season ERA of 3.05, remains available in nearly half of ESPN’s standard leagues. His road ERA, incidentally, is 2.36. … Those who added New York Mets right-hander Carlos Torres as a sneaky two-start pitcher this week were burned by his Monday outing, as the Washington Nationals smacked four home runs off him. Torres is scheduled to face the Miami Marlins later this week. Leave him active for that one. … The Marlins got eight hits against the Atlanta Braves Monday, with leadoff hitter Chris Coghlan having half of them. Of course, he neither scored a run nor knocked in any. Ah, the Marlins. It’s also premature to add Coghlan hoping for batting average help. … Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole outdueled Yu Darvish in Arlington, Texas. Cole fanned nine in seven shutout innings, permitting three singles. The rookie certainly doesn’t seem to be tiring, and there’s no talk of shutting him down. … Incidentally, Mark Melancon earned the save, his 12th. His ERA remains a ridiculous 0.85. Why would the Pirates return Jason Grilli to the closing role at this point? Own Grilli, but keep expectations low.

HacheMan · Sep 11, 2013

[h=1]Major changes in pitcher rankings[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Talk about small samples: 19 days.

That's the number remaining on the 2013 regular-season calendar, and they represent the most minuscule of samples on the pitching side. Be aware that, mathematically speaking, no pitcher can make more than four more starts during the regular season, barring any of the four teams that plays on every remaining day -- the Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres -- using an individual on three days' rest at least twice, or there being any necessary Sept. 30 tiebreaker games.
As this is the space for our weekly pitching rankings, this means that as the weeks pass, expect names to move around more unexpectedly. Remaining matchups take on greater importance, and injury concerns cause pitchers to plummet in the ranks. For instance, Tony Cingrani, who left Tuesday's start with back spasms, dropped precipitously in this week's rankings, though from a skills perspective there'd be no doubt I'd prefer him to, say, Kyle Lohse, Rick Porcello or A.J. Griffin, if he had no potential restrictions.
Dynasty-league owners might be wondering, "But what about 2014 rankings?" Don't worry, they're coming, in a future "60 Feet, 6 Inches." For this week, however, championships still need to be decided, so the rankings account these final 19 days … Wednesday's games through those of Sunday, Sept. 29.
That in mind, let's examine some of the more compelling, rankings-related storylines:

CC Sabathia: Name brands have a way of maintaining our trust. Using the blind-résumé test, ask yourself whether you'd want a pitcher with this stat line since the All-Star break in your active lineup during the fantasy stretch run: 10 starts, 4 wins, 5 quality starts, 6.49 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 17.6 percent strikeout rate (calculated as a percentage of total batters faced), 7.23 K's per nine innings.
Diminished velocity has much to do with it -- he has averaged 91.8 mph with his fastball since the All-Star break and 91.0 for the season -- but primarily because of the impact of it upon his changeup. Sabathia's changeup has averaged 85.3 mph since the All-Star break, less than 6 mph removed from his fastball, and opponents have batted .409 with three home runs against it in 51 plate appearances that ended with one during that time. And here's the worry if you're his keeper-league owner: Many such pitchers faced with this problem, ones armed with a quality slider, tend to increasingly rely upon that taxing pitch. Sabathia threw 35 sliders on Monday, matching his second-highest total of the season, and I wonder whether he continues to do that at potential risk of running into future-season arm troubles?
If any pitcher can work through these issues in the short term, it's an experienced workhorse like Sabathia, who now has back-to-back quality starts. That said, he comes with the reputation of a fantasy ace, and his schedule currently projects: @BOS, Sept. 14; SF, Sept. 20; TB, Sept. 26. The New York Yankees could use their two remaining off days to move the Sept. 20 start into a Sept. 19 assignment at Toronto's Rogers Centre, while granting him an additional outing at Houston's Minute Maid Park on the regular season's final day, Sept. 29. Either way, he's looking at 2-of-3 or 3-of-4 more challenging matchups.

Jose Fernandez and Taijuan Walker: Come day's end, they'll both be done for the season; Fernandez's 2013 finale is scheduled for Wednesday and Walker concluded his year on Monday. Walker, as you can see, has been removed from this week's rankings, while Fernandez earned a low ranking; that is my judgment on the value of one remaining elite start comparative to the 3-4 for everyone else. In redraft leagues, feel free to cut Walker now, Fernandez the minute his game begins and he's locked into your active lineup for the night.
Fernandez, barring an utter meltdown on Wednesday, will enter Thursday ranked no lower than sixth for the season on our Player Rater, in what was an extraordinary season for him. His keeper-league owners are the ones in a challenging spot; many have wondered whether the value of his roster spot, for teams that are in tight races, exceeds that of his keeper appeal. There's no one-size-fits-all answer to that, but just as "OSFA" caps fit more than 90 percent of the population -- sadly, I'm in the other 10 percent -- the "OSFA" answer to the keeper question is, "No, his keeper value is greater and it's actually not that close."
There is an outstanding chance that Fernandez will rank among my -- and ESPN Fantasy's -- 2014 top 15 starting pitchers, and he'll receive strong consideration for top-10 status; the only hesitation being win potential (ugh, do I hate writing that), plus intense offseason examination of his underlying numbers. But ask yourself this: If you had to pick five pitchers with the greatest odds of being top-10 starters in each of the next five seasons (2014 to 2018), wouldn't Fernandez be among them?
Six-man rotations: Another "ugh," because boy, how I loathe the six-man rotation. It's not merely the impact upon starting assignments in weekly leagues, either -- it minimizes the chances of any starter working twice in a given week -- but rather the potentially adverse impact upon pitchers due to too much rest. I harken back to the lessons of Mat Latos, Lance Lynn, et al, from seasons past, when teams would continually push their starts back with adverse results. No, that's not a deep analysis -- I'll consider doing one during the offseason if the data is easy to collect -- but rather my opinion, though I think it's a reasonable and educated one.

Right now, the Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners,Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets are utilizing six-man rotations in some form. That's 23 percent of the major leagues! It's especially bad news for owners ofChris Sale, Hisashi Iwakuma, Felix Hernandez or Travis Wood, as all four of those pitchers currently reside among the top 50 starters for the season on our Player Rater. Not a single one, at rotation project today, should make more than three additional starts before season's end.

Felix Hernandez: Speaking of "King Felix," his next start is currently unknown following a Monday report that he's dealing with a "minor oblique strain," per the Mariners' official website. The injury was initially believed a back problem, and it could explain why he has only three quality starts with a 6.42 ERA in his past six turns, not to mention it'll have lingering concerns for his owners considering that's often a multi-week injury. Dropping Hernandez isn't a consideration that should be far off for his owners in redraft leagues, as there's a prospect of his being shut down for the season entirely, not to mention the Mariners' remaining schedule is treacherous.
What of that Seattle Mariners schedule? Take a look, because coupling the team's six-man rotation strategy with what's upcoming, you might not want to slot in a Mariners pitcher for a single game the rest of the year if you can help it:
HOU-1, off day, @STL-3, @DET-4, @LAA-3, KC-3, OAK-3
Using schedule-weighting methods discussed in this space as recently as two weeks ago, the Mariners' remaining opponents combined have the highest wOBA (weighted on-base average) of any team in baseball, and the sixth most runs scored. Yes, that Wednesday game against the K-happy Houston Astros might catch your eye, but it's Brandon Maurer's assignment ... and Maurer has tallied a 6.64 ERA in eight relief appearances since his late-July recall, before which he had only one quality start in his final eight games for Triple-A Tacoma (June 9-July 24).
Pending Hernandez's status, Hisashi Iwakuma might be the only Mariners pitcher who warrants regular roster consideration in standard, 10-team mixed leagues, and even he should only be expected a quality start-minimum, with less-than-50/50 win potential, for each of his remaining assignments.
The Detroit Tigers' schedule: They might be 5 1/2 games up in the American League Central race with a magic number of 13 to clinch first place, with the possibility of lightening their veteran players' loads in the regular season's waning days, but it's the Tigers' remaining schedule that alleviates their fantasy owners' volume concerns. This is what's left, beginning with Wednesday's game:
@CWS-1, off day, KC-3, SEA-4, CWS-3, @MIN-3, off day, @MIA-3

Using since-the-All-Star-break sample (that's a minimum 47-gamer for everyone), all of those teams but the Kansas City Royals rank 20th or worse in either runs scored or wOBA -- the Royals rank eighth and 16th -- and the Tigers are 11-for-16 in quality starts with a 3.26 ERA and 1.25 WHIP against the Royals so far this season. Plus, the way the team's schedule lays out, the team would have both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer aligned with full rest for the postseason, so there's not a severe need for shuffling the order besides.

AL ERA leader Anibal Sanchez (2.61), owner of six wins, 9-of-10 quality starts and a 2.17 ERA since the break, could be a sneaky fantasy-playoffs ace accounting for his projected schedule (@CWS, Sept. 11; SEA, Sept. 17; CWS, Sept. 22; @MIA, Sept. 28). While it's possible that the Tigers might opt for him in an early-playoffs start, requiring a missed or shortened final outing, he has outstanding odds of a hot finish.
While we're at it, let's also discuss the Cleveland Indians' schedule, because among AL teams, it's the other one that stands out. This is what they have left:
KC-1, @CWS-4, @KC-3, HOU-4, off day, CWS-2, @MIN-4
They effectively swap the Miami Marlins with the Houston Astros but otherwise have an identical schedule, with the primary schedule-related advantage for the Tigers being a greater number of remaining home games (10 of 17 games, compared to 7 of 18 games for the Indians). The Tigers also have the advantage of having the more skilled staff, but all that means is that three-fifths of their rotation is owned in every ESPN league, while a fourth is 94.0 percent owned (Doug Fister). In the Indians' case, their only starter who is owned in more than half of ESPN leagues is Justin Masterson (67.8 percent owned), and his season might conceivably be over due to an oblique injury.
Indians starters might provide fantasy owners the greatest volume of streaming opportunities, especially if you consider that they as a team have the majors' third-best ERA (3.35) and highest strikeout rate (24.4 percent of total batters faced) in the past 30 days.Scott Kazmir (available in 89.8 percent of ESPN leagues), Corey Kluber (93.3 percent) andDanny Salazar (89.4) could be extremely attractive options going forward. And let's not forget one of their standouts in particular ...

Ubaldo Jimenez: He is the No. 7 starting pitcher on our Player Rater's Last 30 split, and to extend the string farther back, since the All-Star break he's 6-of-9 in quality starts with a 1.94 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 27.0 percent strikeout rate (that's calculated as a percentage of batters faced and, to put it into perspective, the major league average during that time span is 19.7 percent).

It's not necessarily an easily discarded hot streak, either, considering Jimenez's fastball has exhibited a small uptick in velocity in recent outings, averaging 92.0 mph since the All-Star break, compared to 91.4 mph in the season's first half. He has also averaged 93.6, 92.4, 92.8 and 93.4 mph with it in his past four outings, throwing at least 50 fastballs in each, and has even topped 96 mph several times in those games. Jimenez attributed this to a mechanical tweak, telling the Indians' official website on Sept. 4 that "it was all about being 100 percent, basically, with my mechanics."
That's not to say Jimenez's recent spell restores him to his 2010 form, when he averaged 96.0 mph with his fastball en route to a third-place finish in the Cy Young race. But considering it's skills-related, he's well worth a look in these final weeks, especially accounting his projected remaining schedule: @CWS, Sept. 14; HOU, Sept. 19; CWS, Sept. 25.
Why your streamers should come from the National League, wherever possible: Using those aforementioned schedule-measuring metrics, it's the NL that stands out on the pitching side. This is no surprise considering it has been a historical opinion of many, that the NL is the one with the pitcher (and not a designated hitter) occupying one-ninth of the lineup, and that 10 of the 15 NL squads reside in the bottom 15 in the majors in runs scored for the season.

Using runs scored, NL squads occupy eight of the top nine and 11 of the top 14 strongest-schedule spots. Using wOBA, all 15 teams rank among the top 17, the aforementioned Tigers (second) and Indians (fifth) the only AL squads within that group. The only knock on National League pitching as a whole, in fact, is its remaining interleague contests: The San Francisco Giants visit the New York Yankees (Sept. 20-22), Colorado Rockies host theBoston Red Sox (Sept. 24-25) and Miami Marlins host the Detroit Tigers (Sept. 27-29), all of which are poor pitching matchups for those teams. That said, the St. Louis Cardinals host the Seattle Mariners (Sept. 13-15) and Cincinnati Reds visit the Houston Astros (Sept. 16-18) in what should be favorable matchups.

Michael Wacha: He's one of the hottest pitchers in fantasy baseball, the No. 12 starting pitcher on our Player Rater's Last 15 split, he's riding an active streak of 19 2/3 scoreless innings … and, most importantly, he is available in nearly 75 percent of ESPN leagues. Wacha was never promised anything beyond his Sept. 3 spot start -- that his first outing following a brief playoff-roster-maneuvering demotion to the minors -- but he has earned a more permanent place in the St. Louis Cardinals' rotation thanks to back-to-back quality starts, which came in key games against the division rival Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates.
Wacha's is an example of a team suppressing a youngster's workload with positive results. He began the year with the team's Triple-A affiliate in Memphis, making nine starts of 52 2/3 total innings (April 7-May 21); he was then recalled for three starts of 17 2/3 innings for the Cardinals (May 30-June 11); he then returned to Memphis for a June 18 start of five innings, resting the remainder of the month afterward; he then made five more starts of 27 1/3 innings for Memphis (July 2-Aug. 4); he was then recalled for an Aug. 10 spot start of five innings for the Cardinals; he then moved to their bullpen, making six appearances totaling 10 2/3 innings (Aug. 14-28); he then was assigned to Double-A Springfield, where he didn't appear in a game; and now he has made the two starts for the Cardinals totaling 13 innings (Sept. 3-8). Grand total: 21 starts, 6 relief appearances, 131 1/3 innings pitched.
This was the Cardinals' design, per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, as they attempted to keep Wacha capped at 150 innings, or 19 2/3 more than he threw between Texas A&M and the Cardinals' minor-league system in 2012. He probably has three more regular-season starts to make, likely in this order: SEA, Sept. 14; @COL, Sept. 19; WSH, Sept. 24. Don't expect much more than that, nor more than six innings or so in each -- and avoid the Coors Field assignment if you can -- but Wacha, whose changeup has notched him three of his five K's and 11 of his 39 total outs in his past two starts, even if he has yet to fully master its control at this level, is well worth your consideration.
Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist and Tyler Lyons: They are the Cardinals' other four pitchers cited in the column, and they fall into their design to cap workloads this season in order to have everyone available for the postseason. Miller's innings cap is specifically mentioned -- it's between 175-180 -- meaning he's right on track with his current pace of 176 1/3 frames. What this means, however, is that fantasy owners shouldn't expect the team to lean heavily upon any individual youngster; the Cardinals don't present much of a volume advantage.
Jason Grilli and Mark Melancon: Or should that read, Mark Melancon and Jason Grilli? The grand debate of "Who should close for the Pittsburgh Pirates?" rages on, especially after Tuesday's game, when Melancon allowed two runs on four hits to narrowly eke out his 13th save. Grilli, incidentally, surrendered one run on two hits in two-thirds of an inning, those the first two outs of the eighth.
Any prediction regarding Pirates saves requires guesswork, and I remain firm on my assessment that the team feels, playoff-wise, that it'd be better off with Melancon in the eighth and Grilli in the ninth. Utilizing any statistical analysis, the strongest argument in Grilli's favor of imminently recapturing the role is that his fastball averaged 93.2 and 92.7 mph in his past two outings, after 91.9 in his first outing fresh off the DL, those closer to the 93.5 mph he averaged before he got hurt. This has the look of an inching-back-to-form pattern, which means closely monitoring each of Grilli's upcoming outings, but for now expecting another 1-2 setup appearances.
Frustrating, yes, but the Pirates have the game's top must-handcuff saves situation.

[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Rnk</center>	Player, Team	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Pos Rnk</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Prev Rnk</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Rnk</center>	Player	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Pos Rnk</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Prev Rnk</center>
1	Clayton Kershaw, LAD	SP1	1	76	Lance Lynn, StL	SP52	56
2	Yu Darvish, Tex	SP2	2	77	Ervin Santana, KC	SP53	69
3	Max Scherzer, Det	SP3	3	78	Ivan Nova, NYY	SP54	77
4	David Price, TB	SP4	4	79	Derek Holland, Tex	SP55	53
5	Adam Wainwright, StL	SP5	6	80	Mark Melancon, Pit	RP25	81
6	Zack Greinke, LAD	SP6	5	81	Ernesto Frieri, LAA	RP26	87
7	Cliff Lee, Phi	SP7	13	82	A.J. Griffin, Oak	SP56	91
8	Stephen Strasburg, Wsh	SP8	7	83	Sonny Gray, Oak	SP57	97
9	Madison Bumgarner, SF	SP9	9	84	Jason Grilli, Pit	RP27	76
10	Cole Hamels, Phi	SP10	12	85	John Lackey, Bos	SP58	71
11	Craig Kimbrel, Atl	RP1	10	86	Ian Kennedy, SD	SP59	82
12	Aroldis Chapman, Cin	RP2	15	87	Brad Ziegler, Ari	RP28	89
13	Homer Bailey, Cin	SP11	16	88	Dillon Gee, NYM	SP60	101
14	Anibal Sanchez, Det	SP12	18	89	Dan Straily, Oak	SP61	117
15	Chris Sale, CWS	SP13	17	90	Wade Miley, Ari	SP62	79
16	Kenley Jansen, LAD	RP3	11	91	LaTroy Hawkins, NYM	RP29	102
17	Mat Latos, Cin	SP14	14	92	Rick Porcello, Det	SP63	103
18	Gio Gonzalez, Wsh	SP15	31	93	Jorge De La Rosa, Col	SP64	85
19	Greg Holland, KC	RP4	20	94	Ubaldo Jimenez, Cle	SP65	131
20	Justin Verlander, Det	SP16	21	95	Chris Archer, TB	SP66	94
21	Mariano Rivera, NYY	RP5	30	96	Zack Wheeler, NYM	SP67	92
22	Francisco Liriano, Pit	SP17	24	97	Bartolo Colon, Oak	SP68	110
23	Jered Weaver, LAA	SP18	19	98	Marco Estrada, Mil	SP69	84
24	Mike Minor, Atl	SP19	22	99	Gerrit Cole, Pit	SP70	96
25	Joe Nathan, Tex	RP6	25	100	Kyle Lohse, Mil	SP71	93
26	Jarrod Parker, Oak	SP20	33	101	Andy Pettitte, NYY	SP72	104
27	James Shields, KC	SP21	23	102	Kevin Gregg, ChC	RP30	100
28	Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh	SP22	38	103	Randall Delgado, Ari	SP73	99
29	Jake Peavy, Bos	SP23	26	104	Scott Kazmir, Cle	SP74	138
30	Glen Perkins, Min	RP7	32	105	Michael Wacha, StL	SP75	148
31	Koji Uehara, Bos	RP8	36	106	Dan Haren, Wsh	SP76	83
32	Ricky Nolasco, LAD	SP24	54	107	Paul Maholm, Atl	SP77	106
33	Huston Street, SD	RP9	44	108	Mark Buehrle, Tor	SP78	98
34	Hiroki Kuroda, NYY	SP25	28	109	Scott Feldman, Bal	SP79	125
35	Fernando Rodney, TB	RP10	51	110	Jose Fernandez, Mia	SP80	70
36	Matt Garza, Tex	SP26	27	111	Tony Cingrani, Cin	SP81	86
37	A.J. Burnett, Pit	SP27	34	112	Alex Wood, Atl	SP82	108
38	Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD	SP28	29	113	Martin Perez, Tex	SP83	111
39	Matt Moore, TB	SP29	42	114	Tyson Ross, SD	SP84	122
40	Alex Cobb, TB	SP30	40	115	Trevor Cahill, Ari	SP85	118
41	Jon Lester, Bos	SP31	50	116	Miguel Gonzalez, Bal	SP86	NR
42	Felix Hernandez, Sea	SP32	8	117	Jose Veras, Det	RP31	123
43	Edward Mujica, StL	RP11	35	118	Brandon McCarthy, Ari	SP87	129
44	Julio Teheran, Atl	SP33	39	119	Ryan Dempster, Bos	SP88	132
45	Rex Brothers, Col	RP12	41	120	Ryan Cook, Oak	RP32	113
46	Doug Fister, Det	SP34	45	121	Roy Halladay, Phi	SP89	114
47	Patrick Corbin, Ari	SP35	37	122	Jason Vargas, LAA	SP90	119
48	Sergio Romo, SF	RP13	49	123	Bronson Arroyo, Cin	SP91	121
49	Kris Medlen, Atl	SP36	58	124	Danny Salazar, Cle	SP92	128
50	Chris Tillman, Bal	SP37	59	125	Trevor Rosenthal, StL	RP33	127
51	R.A. Dickey, Tor	SP38	60	126	Pedro Strop, ChC	RP34	130
52	Rafael Soriano, Wsh	RP14	78	127	Yusmeiro Petit, SF	SP93	NR
53	CC Sabathia, NYY	SP39	57	128	Erasmo Ramirez, Sea	SP94	115
54	Matt Cain, SF	SP40	47	129	Bud Norris, Bal	SP95	112
55	Addison Reed, CWS	RP15	52	130	Drew Storen, Wsh	RP35	134
56	Jonathan Papelbon, Phi	RP16	63	131	Bruce Chen, KC	SP96	144
57	Jeff Samardzija, ChC	SP41	43	132	Edwin Jackson, ChC	SP97	137
58	Grant Balfour, Oak	RP17	55	133	Jordan Lyles, Hou	SP98	NR
59	Danny Farquhar, Sea	RP18	61	134	David Robertson, NYY	RP36	105
60	Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea	SP42	46	135	Danny Duffy, KC	SP99	116
61	Casey Janssen, Tor	RP19	66	136	Wei-Yin Chen, Bal	SP100	133
62	Jonathon Niese, NYM	SP43	65	137	Jeremy Hellickson, TB	SP101	135
63	Shelby Miller, StL	SP44	62	138	Mike Leake, Cin	SP102	141
64	Yovani Gallardo, Mil	SP45	88	139	Joe Kelly, StL	SP103	139
65	Jim Johnson, Bal	RP20	73	140	Felix Doubront, Bos	SP104	90
66	Clay Buchholz, Bos	SP46	120	141	Corey Kluber, Cle	SP105	NR
67	Jim Henderson, Mil	RP21	72	142	Brett Anderson, Oak	SP106	NR
68	C.J. Wilson, LAA	SP47	67	143	James Paxton, Sea	SP107	NR
69	Joaquin Benoit, Det	RP22	48	144	Luke Gregerson, SD	RP37	NR
70	Jhoulys Chacin, Col	SP48	74	145	Luke Hochevar, KC	RP38	150
71	Tim Lincecum, SF	SP49	80	146	Zach McAllister, Cle	SP108	NR
72	Chris Perez, Cle	RP23	64	147	Tommy Hunter, Bal	RP39	149
73	Steve Cishek, Mia	RP24	68	148	Carlos Torres, NYM	SP109	NR
74	Travis Wood, ChC	SP50	75	149	Garrett Richards, LAA	SP110	NR
75	Andrew Cashner, SD	SP51	107	150	Craig Stammen, Wsh	RP40	145

HacheMan · Sep 11, 2013

[h=1]Bits: Hunter Pence joins 20-20 club

[/h]
By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Once upon a time back in March, San Francisco Giants outfielder Hunter Pence made my list of players I liked more than my colleagues did, and thus was more likely to end up with on my teams. My argument on Pence was simple: He was an established provider of batting average, power and on occasion sneaky speed, and that his 2012 struggles in a small sample size at AT&T Park (.220 batting average, 109 at-bats) were more fluke than anything else. Well, Pence continued his terrific 2013 season Tuesday with a first-inning three-run homer, his 20th home run of the season. He finished with four hits and six RBIs in a 9-8 loss to the Colorado Rockies.

Pence, who is 18th on the ESPN Player Rater for the season and second to ridiculously hot New York Yankeesoutfielder Alfonso Soriano for the past 30 days, becomes the third player to reach 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases this season, joining Mike Troutand Carlos Gonzalez. That’s quite the club. It sure doesn’t look like anyone is going to reach 30/30 in 2013, but there are a slew of others (pending NL MVPAndrew McCutchen, Alex Rios, Carlos Gomez, Jason Kipnis, Ian Desmond andCoco Crisp) closing in on 20/20. Still, it’s quite the accomplishment. Pence fell to the 13th round in 2013 average live drafts!
The moral of this story is not solely that Pence shouldn’t be doubted in 2014, even though he’s not really a power hitter and not really a stolen base guy. He’s just a good fantasy option overall. It’s that others struggling this season after years of productivity should be viewed not as old and useless, but potentially helpful. Among those who went in the top 100 this season whom I’d look to as potential sleepers next year, and after the 10th round, include Starlin Castro, B.J. Upton (yes, really!), Aramis Ramirez, Brett Lawrie and Chase Headley. It’s about value, and those guys will be a lot less expensive than this year. As for Pence, he’s a top-20 overall option today, but I think it’s reasonable to slot him in the sixth or seventh round for next season, a solid, complementary player.
Box score bits (NL): Raise the Jolly Roger! Francisco Liriano won his 16th game on Tuesday. No, I did not see that coming (well, the season, not necessarily Tuesday). The lastPittsburgh Pirates lefty to win 16 games? Zane Smith and John Smiley in 1991! … Uh-oh,Cincinnati Reds lefty Tony Cingrani left his outing with more back spasms after facing eight hitters, and again it would appear unlikely that he makes his next start. Cingrani, whose stellar ERA rose to a still-stellar 2.92, should remain owned in all leagues for now. Also, do not assume Johnny Cueto is pushed back to the rotation quicker now. … Reds speedsterBilly Hamilton finally batted! Of course, he was 0-for-2 and wasn’t able to run. He can’t steal first base. His fantasy value might be greater pinch running for Ryan Ludwick in close games. … Speaking of pinch running, Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Starling Marte swiped his 36th base Tuesday, but apparently cannot grip a bat well enough to hit. Don’t drop Marte, but hopefully he’ll start getting at-bats again soon. … Chicago Cubs catcher Wellington Castillo smacked a pair of home runs Tuesday, his fifth and sixth of the season. Castillo hasn’t supplied much power, but his .272 batting average is safe. One can do worse in a multicatcher NL-only format. … Washington Nationals first baseman Adam LaRoche hit his 19th home run Tuesday. One more and he’ll have his eighth 20-homer campaign. LaRoche, a noted second-half player, has not matched his career trend this season, but he is 8-for-25 this month. … Now is definitely the time to add Atlanta Braves catcher/outfielder Evan Gattis, regardless of which position he plays for your team. He knocked in two more runs Tuesday, and has three consecutive multi-RBI performances.
Box score bits (AL): Boston Red Sox right-hander Clay Buchholz tossed five shutout innings in his long-awaited return Tuesday. Buchholz, who last pitched three months ago due to a shoulder/neck issue, upped his record to 10-0 and lowered his ERA to 1.61, picking up where he left off. He fanned six and walked one. While it’s generally risky to start a pitcher off a long layoff, in this case it would have worked. Activate Buchholz for his weekend matchup with the rival New York Yankees. … With Jacoby Ellsbury perhaps done for September, second baseman Dustin Pedroia led off, the first time he hadn’t hit in the No. 3 spot all season. Pedroia is valuable anywhere, but his stolen base Tuesday could be a nice harbinger of more to come. … Meanwhile, say what you will about unpopular Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, but he doubled twice Tuesday while in the No. 2 lineup slot and now is hitting .301 since his return. He’s the No. 7 third baseman on the Rater over the past month. Now back to the hatin’. … Los Angeles Angels slugger Mark Trumbo homered and smashed three doubles -- all in the first six innings in Toronto on Tuesday -- and finished with five hits and five runs scored, the ninth player in modern history to go 5-for-5 with or better with four extra-base hits and runs in a game. Still, Trumbo has again struggled in the second half of the season, just like 2012, and it will again be reflected in my 2014 rankings. He’s hitting .244, and the last month is OBP was over .300 was May. … Underrated Kansas City Royals reliever Luke Hochevar faced five batters Tuesday, and struck them all out. Those up against a starts limit would be wise to look at the former No. 1 draft pick; he boasts a 1.70 ERA and big strikeout rate.

HacheMan · Sep 12, 2013

[h=1]Hitter rankings fickle down stretch[/h][h=3]Injury concerns drop many top players; late playing-time situations affect others[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Tristan H. Cockcroft[/FONT] | ESPN.com

One hundred sixty-two games certainly seems like a lot, if you're the unfortunate owner of[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Carlos Gonzalez[/FONT], [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Jacoby Ellsbury[/FONT], [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Edwin Encarnacion[/FONT] or [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Allen Craig[/FONT].

All of these players are dealing with injuries of varying severity, and the grueling, lengthy season has forced their on-field teams to ease off them recently. The result for fantasy teams is that their owners are being forced into difficult decisions with them during the stretch run. Here's the crazy -- or should that read "not so crazy" -- reality: All of them warrant cut consideration, at least in 10-team ESPN standard redraft formats.
At-bats -- or plate appearances, if you agree with my preference in statistics measuring playing time -- are precious, and the decision to go with a less battle-tested, albeit every-day player over a day-to-day, name-brand fantasy stud becomes more valid as each of the 18 remaining days to the 2013 regular season tick down. It's the reason why you'll see such fantasy studs plummeting in my weekly rankings at column's end, despite the fact that all would warrant far healthier rankings for 2014 in full.
As an aside: Don't worry, we've got you covered for early 2014 rankings; they will be published in a future edition of Hit Parade.
Let's get back to those injury-plagued players and examine their rest-of-2013 prognoses, as well as touch on several other pertinent topics.

Carlos Gonzalez: He probably shouldn't still be playing, not with his Colorado Rockies mathematically eliminated from postseason contention, having battled an injured finger since the beginning of July. Since being activated from the DL on Sept. 3, CarGo has appeared in six games but has yet to make a trip to the plate; he has 69 PAs in 23 games total (minors included) since first missing time with the ailment (July 8-9) and has batted just .279 with two home runs and a 29.9 percent strikeout rate during that time. Gonzalez seeks a second opinion on surgery later this week, and I'd call it fair to declare his over/under on remaining 2013 PAs at 1.
Jacoby Ellsbury: He has a compression fracture of the navicular bone in his right foot, an injury he played through for a week. He will be re-examined by theBoston Red Sox's team doctor Friday and might yet return before the regular season ends. That said, the Red Sox have a magic number of eight to clinch the postseason, so any Ellsbury offerings will probably be with the team's design of gearing him up for October. A few token final-week starts aren't that likely to help you.
Edwin Encarnacion: The No. 9 hitter on our Player Rater, Encarnacion hasn't played since tweaking his wrist Sept. 7. Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons admitted Wednesday that there is a possibility that the slugger won't play again this season. There's no reason for the Blue Jays to push him. Even in the best-case scenario that he heals quickly enough to play in the final week, he's probably a smarter cut in shallow formats with an eye on reclaiming him in that event.
Allen Craig: His is a somewhat different circumstance than any of the above three -- perhaps that's the reason for his having been the subject of many fantasy owners' questions the past week -- as his St. Louis Cardinals are in a dogfight for positioning between being National League Central champs or wild-card play-ins as the home or road team. Three games separate them, the Pittsburgh Pirates (1 back) and Cincinnati Reds (3), so the Cardinals need these games and surely would like a healthy Craig. That said, the Cardinals are fortunate to have a productive backup in Matt Adams, a .250 hitter with three home runs and a .571 slugging percentage in his first eight games of September, so it's understandable that the team isn't rushing Craig back from his foot injury. I said at the time it happened that Craig might miss a week; I'll amend that to next Monday as a guess (again, guess). Even then, Craig might sit some days for Adams, especially once the Cardinals lock in their playoff seed.
So what of David Wright, then? The New York Mets third baseman, still 36th among hitters on our Player Rater and still in my top 150 hitters ranked below, has resumed fielding grounders and running the bases, which at least offers hope of a return from his hamstring injury this season. As a DL-eligible player, he's more deserving of keeping around even in shallow formats, even if his Mets, like the Rockies, were mathematically eliminated from contention Wednesday. Still, and this is again guessing, I can't see him offering you much more than 8-10 games.
And Starling Marte? He was activated from the DL on Sept. 7 but was declared a mere pinch runner and late-inning defensive replacement, neither role warranting much fantasy consideration; Billy Hamilton might be the only player in rotisserie baseball history to warrant a look locked into a mere pinch-runner role. After all, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported Aug. 27 that Marte was two weeks away from even swinging a bat -- he wound up taking a few swings a day later -- and he was merely hitting off a tee as recently as Sept. 6. Marte could log some final-week time as the Pirates gear him up for the postseason, but his value would probably be capped to NL-only leagues.
OK, so that's the injured players. Is anyone healthy then? Well, sure ...

Evan Gattis: This is the kind of player that a team preoccupied with printing playoff tickets loves to own. He's plenty capable of providing regulars rest, with negligible decline in production. In short, he's much to the Atlanta Braveswhat Adams is to the Cardinals right now. Gattis' 6.6 percent home run rate (as a percentage of his at-bats) is fifth among hitters with at least 250 plate appearances, his 21.5 home run/fly ball percentage is 12th, and he has some of the best raw power of any hitter. Since his recall Sept. 3 -- with a quick, three-game stop at Triple-A Gwinnett as the Braves creatively tinkered their playoff roster -- he has started all eight team games in left field, batting .333 (10-for-30) with four home runs.
As a player with just 88 games played, 313 plate appearances and no clear place to play every day during the postseason, Gattis should continue to provide the Braves' regulars rest as he auditions for whatever role the team desires in October. Perhaps that's as a platoon left fielder, pinch hitter or mere three-position backup, but enjoy the ride for now, just as you might have in April.
The San Diego Padres schedule: Though Petco Park's smaller 2013 dimensions have given their hitters a fighting chance this season, any game that the Padres play away from that cavernous venue is a positive for their hitters. That's why a schedule that includes 11 road games out of their final 18 is a plus:
@PHI-1, @ATL-3, @PIT-4, LAD-3, ARI-4, @SF-3

As noted in Wednesday's 60 Feet 6 Inches, American League hitters have a substantial schedule advantage over National League batsmen, but perhaps you might be surprised to learn that it's the Padres who stand out with the NL's best remaining schedule, as one of the few teams in the Senior Circuit that rank in the upper half in terms of weighted on-base average and runs scored potential. One reason for this: The aforementioned Braves couldn't make it any clearer that they're resting up for the postseason than when they announced Wednesday that Freddy Garcia and David Hale would start two of the three games against the Padres. The Los Angeles Dodgers might be resting for the playoffs by the time that Sept. 20-22 series arrives, and the Arizona Diamondbacks' most effective pitcher this year, Patrick Corbin, could be up against an innings cap by that Sept. 23-26 series.

Fantasy owners should be pleased to learn that only one Padres hitter -- Will Venable (97.1 percent) -- is owned in more than 61 percent of ESPN leagues. Their batsmen are widely available and could plug holes as you try to scrape together lineups in these challenging weeks of the year. Jedd Gyorko, owned in 58.9 percent of ESPN leagues and both second- and third-base eligible, has home runs in two of his past four games. Chase Headley, owned in 60.9 percent and one of 2012's most productive second-half hitters, is a .304 hitter (7-for-23) with two home runs since returning from a minor back issue. And Nick Hundley, available in all but 0.2 percent of ESPN leagues, has an outstanding September history, as cited in this space last week.
If you own him, hopefully you've fallen in love with Venable. He has always been that sneaky 10-homer, 25-steal performer, one who can be brilliantly maneuvered when the matchups call. You would have always wanted him in there against right-handed starters. As a 30-year-old this season, however, he has finally become a complete performer, one with much better power than expected. Consider that Venable is a .302 hitter with four home runs in 55 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers since the All-Star break; he was a .220 hitter with five homers in 346 PAs against lefties in his career up to that point. Couple this with the Padres' favorable schedule and he's likely to finish the year strong.
Care to guess which team has the most surprisingly poor remaining schedule? It's theDetroit Tigers, who made Wednesday's 60 Feet 6 Inches for their favorable pitching schedule. Let's remind you of it:
Off day, KC-3, SEA-4, CWS-3, @MIN-3, off day, @MIA-3

Those opponents might not strike you as particularly scary, but keep a few things in mind: The Kansas City Royals have underrated starting pitching, the Seattle Mariners could always drop in a Felix Hernandez or Hisashi Iwakuma start, and by the time the team leaves for its six-game, season-ending road trip, it will probably have already wrapped up the AL Central and will be resting regulars.

Miguel Cabrera is the big name under the microscope, having missed 11 of the Tigers' past 63 games with back, hip and abdominal injuries, not to mention his having prematurely exited a few more with those ailments. He's in need of some pre-playoff rest, and while he's too valuable in fantasy to ever bench without advanced notice of his sitting a game -- which means daily-league owners should keep a close eye on Tigers daily lineups -- he's no guarantee to be the No. 1 player in the game from today forward.
Victor Martinez (34 years old with 144 games played), Torii Hunter (38 and 131) and Prince Fielder (played all 146 Tigers games) could also get additional days off.
Jean Segura: He's the No. 1 shortstop for the season on our Player Rater, but raise your hand if you've noticed that, on our Last 30 split, he's only 18th at the position. Segura has slipped into an awful funk during the season's second half, a .247/.272/.301 hitter with zero home runs, 10 runs scored and a mere 9-for-15 performance in stolen bases -- the latter most disconcerting considering it's usually his strength. Since the All-Star break, he has the majors' sixth-worst qualified well-hit average (percentage of at-bats that result in hard contact) and seventh-worst wOBA, with .093 and .295. The argument can be made thatJonathan Villar will be the more valuable fantasy shortstop the rest of this year.
Kole Calhoun: Not many people could have predicted this, but Calhoun has been one of the more impressive Los Angeles Angels hitters of late, having started 13 of the team's past 15 games and batting .383/.407/.596 with two home runs and 15 RBIs during that span. Though he has always been a contact-hitting, patient type -- with 11.9 percent walk and 16.5 percent strikeout rates during his four-year minor league career -- Calhoun always profiled as more of a fourth-outfielder/below-average regular type; he seemed the kind of player who could warrant a regular role in a thinner outfield, like that of the Mets, but hardly could crack the Angels' starting three. Injuries to Albert Pujols and Peter Bourjos(who has since returned to action as a part-timer), however, created an opportunity for Calhoun, and in it he has thrived. He's another of those beneath-the-radar options for your stretch run.

[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rk" column. These rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">#</center>	Player, Team	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Pos Rk</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Prv Rk</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">#</center>	Player, Team	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Pos Rk</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Prv Rk</center>
1	Mike Trout, LAA	OF1	1	76	Wil Myers, TB	OF31	71
2	Robinson Cano, NYY	2B1	4	77	A.J. Pierzynski, Tex	C8	85
3	Miguel Cabrera, Det	3B1	2	78	Domonic Brown, Phi	OF32	58
4	Andrew McCutchen, Pit	OF2	3	79	Jed Lowrie, Oak	SS8	96
5	Chris Davis, Bal	1B1	7	80	Jean Segura, Mil	SS9	43
6	Paul Goldschmidt, Ari	1B2	5	81	Kyle Seager, Sea	3B13	88
7	Hanley Ramirez, LAD	SS1	8	82	Aramis Ramirez, Mil	3B14	91
8	Adam Jones, Bal	OF3	9	83	Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle	SS10	97
9	Joey Votto, Cin	1B3	13	84	Jedd Gyorko, SD	2B11	105
10	Evan Longoria, TB	3B2	11	85	Alejandro De Aza, CWS	OF33	84
11	Adrian Beltre, Tex	3B3	10	86	Matt Wieters, Bal	C9	89
12	Troy Tulowitzki, Col	SS2	14	87	Emilio Bonifacio, KC	OF34	101
13	Prince Fielder, Det	1B4	18	88	Kendrys Morales, Sea	1B9	108
14	Ian Kinsler, Tex	2B2	16	89	Jonathan Villar, Hou	SS11	150
15	Eric Hosmer, KC	1B5	19	90	Aaron Hill, Ari	2B12	68
16	Alfonso Soriano, NYY	OF4	28	91	Jason Castro, Hou	C10	79
17	Ian Desmond, Wsh	SS3	17	92	Brandon Belt, SF	1B10	94
18	Alex Rios, Tex	OF5	22	93	Carl Crawford, LAD	OF35	74
19	Matt Holliday, StL	OF6	21	94	Christian Yelich, Mia	OF36	112
20	Giancarlo Stanton, Mia	OF7	33	95	Brandon Moss, Oak	1B11	116
21	Curtis Granderson, NYY	OF8	23	96	Mike Napoli, Bos	C11	121
22	Jose Reyes, Tor	SS4	25	97	Nate McLouth, Bal	OF37	98
23	Dustin Pedroia, Bos	2B3	24	98	Allen Craig, StL	1B12	41
24	Elvis Andrus, Tex	SS5	32	99	Dexter Fowler, Col	OF38	90
25	Jay Bruce, Cin	OF9	36	100	Rajai Davis, Tor	OF39	119
26	Jayson Werth, Wsh	OF10	38	101	Anthony Rizzo, ChC	1B13	82
27	Yasiel Puig, LAD	OF11	27	102	Jimmy Rollins, Phi	SS12	115
28	Carlos Gomez, Mil	OF12	29	103	Andrelton Simmons, Atl	SS13	123
29	Shin-Soo Choo, Cin	OF13	37	104	Adam Eaton, Ari	OF40	102
30	Buster Posey, SF	C1	39	105	Desmond Jennings, TB	OF41	99
31	Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh	3B4	46	106	Matt Kemp, LAD	OF42	104
32	Jason Kipnis, Cle	2B4	45	107	Andre Ethier, LAD	OF43	117
33	Adrian Gonzalez, LAD	1B6	30	108	Evan Gattis, Atl	C12	NR
34	Shane Victorino, Bos	OF14	47	109	Jarrod Dyson, KC	OF44	122
35	Freddie Freeman, Atl	1B7	26	110	Brian McCann, Atl	C13	100
36	David Ortiz, Bos	DH1	34	111	Erick Aybar, LAA	SS14	106
37	Brandon Phillips, Cin	2B5	31	112	Eric Young Jr., NYM	OF45	127
38	Ben Zobrist, TB	2B6	42	113	Darin Ruf, Phi	OF46	111
39	Bryce Harper, Wsh	OF15	15	114	Norichika Aoki, Mil	OF47	109
40	Hunter Pence, SF	OF16	50	115	Wilson Ramos, Wsh	C14	133
41	Alex Rodriguez, NYY	3B5	61	116	Nolan Arenado, Col	3B15	107
42	Carlos Beltran, StL	OF17	40	117	Todd Frazier, Cin	3B16	144
43	Matt Carpenter, StL	2B7	55	118	Chris Johnson, Atl	3B17	120
44	Justin Upton, Atl	OF18	20	119	Marlon Byrd, Pit	OF48	126
45	Martin Prado, Ari	3B6	35	120	Carlos Ruiz, Phi	C15	125
46	Billy Butler, KC	1B8	48	121	Chris Carter, Hou	1B14	129
47	Austin Jackson, Det	OF19	44	122	Adam LaRoche, Wsh	1B15	132
48	Alex Gordon, KC	OF20	59	123	Jon Jay, StL	OF49	135
49	Yoenis Cespedes, Oak	OF21	67	124	Justin Smoak, Sea	1B16	118
50	Yadier Molina, StL	C2	51	125	Justin Morneau, Pit	1B17	113
51	Carlos Santana, Cle	C3	62	126	Omar Infante, Det	2B13	131
52	Michael Cuddyer, Col	OF22	63	127	Nick Swisher, Cle	OF50	141
53	Jose Altuve, Hou	2B8	66	128	Neil Walker, Pit	2B14	114
54	Manny Machado, Bal	3B7	57	129	Denard Span, Wsh	OF51	148
55	Pedro Alvarez, Pit	3B8	54	130	Will Middlebrooks, Bos	3B18	NR
56	Victor Martinez, Det	C4	52	131	Stephen Drew, Bos	SS15	130
57	Wilin Rosario, Col	C5	56	132	Zack Cozart, Cin	SS16	134
58	Brett Lawrie, Tor	3B9	60	133	Ichiro Suzuki, NYY	OF52	138
59	Pablo Sandoval, SF	3B10	69	134	Trevor Plouffe, Min	3B19	145
60	Brett Gardner, NYY	OF23	83	135	Chase Headley, SD	3B20	NR
61	Jonathan Lucroy, Mil	C6	64	136	Brian Dozier, Min	SS17	149
62	Will Venable, SD	OF24	78	137	Mark Reynolds, NYY	1B18	NR
63	Josh Hamilton, LAA	OF25	77	138	Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Bos	C16	128
64	Torii Hunter, Det	OF26	53	139	Junior Lake, ChC	SS18	NR
65	Alexei Ramirez, CWS	SS6	70	140	Nate Schierholtz, ChC	OF53	124
66	Coco Crisp, Oak	OF27	81	141	Adam Dunn, CWS	1B19	95
67	Daniel Murphy, NYM	2B9	73	142	Mitch Moreland, Tex	1B20	136
68	David Wright, NYM	3B11	65	143	Dustin Ackley, Sea	2B15	143
69	Josh Donaldson, Oak	3B12	87	144	Avisail Garcia, CWS	OF54	147
70	J.J. Hardy, Bal	SS7	80	145	Kole Calhoun, LAA	OF55	NR
71	Leonys Martin, Tex	OF28	86	146	B.J. Upton, Atl	OF56	140
72	Salvador Perez, KC	C7	93	147	David Freese, StL	3B21	NR
73	Chase Utley, Phi	2B10	72	148	Brad Miller, Sea	SS19	NR
74	Michael Bourn, Cle	OF29	75	149	Matt Adams, StL	1B21	NR
75	Mark Trumbo, LAA	OF30	103	150	Josh Willingham, Min	OF57	NR

HacheMan · Sep 12, 2013

[h=1]Fernandez wraps up impressive season

[/h][h=5]Eric Karabell[/h]
Fantasy owners really could not have asked for much more of [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Miami Marlins[/FONT] right-hander[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Jose Fernandez[/FONT] this year. The Cuban import surprisingly made the Marlins out of spring training at age 20, became a popular fantasy free-agent pickup immediately, held his own the first half of the season despite the lack of awesome teammates around him, and then was quite simply the best pitcher in the game after the All-Star break. Fernandez finished his rookie season Wednesday with seven innings of one-run ball to beat the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Atlanta Braves[/FONT], and even smacked a home run and helped provoke a benches-clearing incident. That’s how good he is.

Alas, it’s all over because the Marlins decided to pick the random number of 170 innings and shut down Fernandez at that point. Mind you there’s no conclusive evidence that this move will help Fernandez stay healthier next year -- see Matt Harvey -- but ultimately, all that matters is that fantasy owners in redraft formats should thank Fernandez and move on to someone else these final weeks. Fernandez ends his first season with 12 wins in 28 starts, a 2.19 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 187 strikeouts in 172 2/3 innings, and he’s 16th overall on the Player Rater, and behind only Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Craig Kimbrel among pitchers. It might be the best season ever for a rookie pitcher, right there with Dwight Gooden, Fernando Valenzuela and of course, Mark Fidrych.

Kershaw will likely take home another NL Cy Young award -- more wins, innings, strikeouts, better ERA -- but Fernandez certainly has deserving numbers, and we’ll see about top rookie honors between him and Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig. When it comes to fantasy, however, Fernandez is the pick as top rookie, even with three weeks to go. This is a pitcher with terrific command, a dominant slider, and he throws hard. Batters hit .182 off him this year, best in the majors. The No. 2 rookie on the Player Rater is Puig at No. 84.

Where will Fernandez rank for next season? Well, I’ll be avoiding starting pitchers in the early rounds to start with, but I don’t see how to keep this fellow out of the top 10 at the position. For now I’d rank Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, Yu Darvish, Scherzer and Adam Wainwright in the top five, but after that, Fernandez demands attention with David Price,Madison Bumgarner, Justin Verlander, Stephen Strasburg, Chris Sale, Zack Greinke, Cliff Leeand Cole Hamels. Things could change, but I’ll slot him right after Strasburg for now in the No. 10 spot. Amazing indeed.

By the way, if ranking the top rookies for fantasy this season, after Fernandez I’d go with Puig (still hitting .340 with power and speed in 87 games, which means you were able to use another outfielder prior to his promotion), then St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Shelby Miller, Atlanta Braves right-hander Julio Teheran and Dodgers lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu at No. 5. Yep, it’s all NL players, and there’s no room for Wil Myers, Jose Iglesias, Evan Gattis (who homered off Fernandez Wednesday for the lone run) or even Milwaukee Brewers closer Jim Henderson, a valuable fantasy asset at age 30 (and yes, technically a rookie), but he misses this list.

Box score bits (NL): Washington Nationals right-hander Dan Haren is no rookie, but he outdueled New York Mets first-year right-hander Zack Wheeler Wednesday, allowing one hit in six shutout innings. Haren, whose season ERA is 5.02, remains too erratic to trust. He had permitted 12 runs in his previous 5 2/3 innings, outings against those lowly Mets and Marlins. … Wheeler allowed only one run in seven innings, lowering his ERA to 3.22. He should get two more starts this season. … San Francisco Giants right-hander Yusmeiro Petitcouldn’t duplicate the success of his near-perfect game last week, allowing three runs over 5 2/3 innings Wednesday. Petit continues to strike hitters out, but he’s more spot starter than safe option. … St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Matt Adams blasted his 12th home run of the season Wednesday, a two-run shot off lefty Mike Gonzalez. Adams bats left-handed. He’ll continue to play regularly with Allen Craig out a few more weeks, and he’ll continue to hit. … Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Jean Segura is 1-for-8 the past two days, dropping his batting average below .300 for the first time all year. Segura is hitting .246 with a .269 OBP and one home run since the All-Star break. He hit .325 with 11 home runs prior. Remember all that in 2014 drafts. He’s got speed and is nearly top-10 on the Rater for the season, but he won’t be in my overall top-40 rankings next spring.

Box score bits (AL): Kansas City Royals right-hander James Shields got back on track Wednesday with eight innings of two-run ball in Cleveland, winning his 11th game. Yeah, he has deserved more victories with his numbers, but at least he didn’t allow 10 runs like his previous outing. Shields has won seven of 10 starts. … Toronto Blue Jays outfielderMoises Sierra thrived Wednesday, with two doubles, a triple, two runs and his first stolen base. Sierra, 24, isn’t a top prospect -- he had 16 walks versus 106 strikeouts while hitting .261 at Triple-A Buffalo -- but he should see playing time down the stretch, especially with slugger Edwin Encarnacion perhaps done with a wrist injury. … Baltimore Orioles third baseman Danny Valencia had four hits Wednesday, raising his batting average to .330 over 109 at-bats. Valencia, a right-handed hitter, is batting .385 against lefty pitchers, like Wednesday’s foe, Andy Pettitte. Those in daily leagues take note: Valencia and the Orioles are scheduled to face lefty Mark Buehrle Sunday. … Detroit Tigers right-hander Anibal Sanchez fanned 10 Chicago White Sox over 7 1/3 shutout innings Wednesday, earning his 14th win. Sanchez has a 2.50 ERA. He won’t win the Cy Young award, but the case for top-20 starting pitcher status in 2014 is legit.

HacheMan · Sep 15, 2013

[h=1]Bits: Grant Balfour ineffective of late

[/h][h=5]Eric Karabell[/h]
[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Oakland Athletics[/FONT] right-hander [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Grant Balfour[/FONT] saw his first action of the week in Thursday’s 8-2 win over the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Minnesota Twins[/FONT]. It wasn’t a save opportunity, but Balfour hadn’t pitched since Friday, when he needed 35 pitches to close out the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Houston Astros[/FONT] for his 37th save. Overall, Balfour is having a terrific season, but watching him Thursday he sure didn’t look like his ol' dominant self, and one has to wonder if his recent admission of arm fatigue will present more of a problem than a first-place team wants to deal with, especially with a huge series this weekend in Texas against the second-place Rangers.

On Thursday, [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Oswaldo Arcia[/FONT] and [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Josh Willingham[/FONT] squared up hits to left field, two other right-handed hitters were able to pull fastballs to third base, there was a wild pitch and for the third time in four outings the right-hander did not register a strikeout. It was also the fifth time in seven outings Balfour allowed multiple hits in an inning, though this time he didn’t permit a run. The velocity was fine, in the 94-95 mph range, but the Twins weren’t missing it. Perhaps it’s nothing major, but with basically no big league closer situations changing over the past month -- the Houston Astros just don’t count -- it’s not a bad time to preemptively add Athletics right-handed setup man [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Ryan Cook[/FONT] just in case.

Balfour surely isn’t the only tired closer at this point of the season, but as he told the San Jose Mercury News about the fatigue, “It would be one thing if it was June. But this late in the season it’s all good.” Well, it’s not actually all good, not with an ERA of 5.06 and 1.78 WHIP in the past month. Of course Balfour wants to keep on closing, but look for Cook or lefty Sean Doolittle to see the occasional chance if the Athletics get save opportunities on consecutive days.

Closer talk: Tampa Bay Rays closerFernando Rodney put a few Boston Red Sox on base in a one-run game Thursday, but ultimately retired Will Middlebrooks and Dustin Pedroia for his 34th save. It’s not fair to call Rodney one of the season’s signature closer busts; his strikeout rate is strong and he’s got 34 more saves than Jason Motte, who was generally drafted in the same range. … I don’t think Pittsburgh Pirates manager Clint Hurdle wants to officially admit that right-hander Mark Melancon will remain his closer, because he doesn’t want to dispirit former closer Jason Grilli. But how can he remove Melancon and his 1.10 ERA? … Not only are closer jobs not changing, few closers are blowing saves recently. Mariano Rivera has two this month, but he’s in no danger. … Of course, big news was made with Rivera on Thursday, when he should have earned his 44th save, but setup man David Robertson was lit so badly the official scorer gave Rivera the win instead. This is new territory for fantasy owners. You might have needed the save more! For more, listen to Friday’s Fantasy Focus baseball podcast as Tristan H. Cockcroft angrily explains the difference. … Baltimore Orioles right-hander Jim Johnson created the Rivera win/save with another rough outing. You know what, he’s still getting the next save chance, so don’t overreact in fantasy. … With right-hander Sergio Romo unavailable to pitch Wednesday, San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy could have given rookie Heath Hembree a chance to close out a meaningless September game. Alas, he went with right-hander Santiago Casilla, who is fine, but is 32. Hembree saved 87 games in basically three minor league seasons. Why not see what he does at the highest level? Managers are so predictable.

Box score bits (AL): Don’t count on New York Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner for at least this weekend; the leadoff hitter with 24 stolen bases and 81 runs strained an oblique Thursday. Check back Friday for updates but in daily leagues, add an outfielder. … No fantasy owner who spent Thursday watching football wants to see they had the starter on the losing side of a 14-3 game. Chicago White Sox lefty John Danks was that starter, and he allowed seven runs (six earned) in four innings. Danks had a respectable 4.15 ERA and 1.19 WHIP three outings ago. Now, 17 runs in 14 1/3 innings later, he doesn’t. You shouldn’t use him. … Cleveland Indians outfielder Ryan Raburn hasn’t played much this month, but he homered and knocked in five Thursday. He’s a must-use versus lefties. … Athletics outfielder Josh Reddick homered and knocked in three Thursday in his second game since coming off the disabled list for a wrist issue. Reddick won’t provide many singles, but he’s got pop for the final weeks. … Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Jose Reyessmacked his 10th home run Thursday, the sixth time in nine seasons he has been in double digits. Reyes missed half the season with injury, but he certainly has hit when active. What he hasn’t done is run. Reyes has only 14 stolen bases in 19 chances. Still, this is a top-five shortstop and top-40 player in 2014 drafts. By the way, it’s possible Blue Jays sluggerEdwin Encarnacion (wrist) does return this week, so don’t cut him yet.

Box score bits (NL): Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman smoked his 20th home run in Miami Thursday, the third time in as many seasons he has reached the mark. Freeman has proved he can hit for average, and should be a top-50 pick next season. He’s ahead of Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez and pretty close to Joey Votto on the Player Rater. … You have to hand it to New York Mets outfielder Eric Young Jr. He saw only eight pitches Thursday, hitting two singles, flying out and drawing a walk. So he’s not patient and might have had dinner plans. But he stole his 37th base. The way Jean Segura is struggling, Young could end up leading the NL in steals this year. … Don’t be afraid to add Washington Nationals right-hander Tanner Roark. He controlled the Mets Thursday, and now is 6-0 with a 1.30 ERA in 34 2/3 innings, two of them starts. He’s scheduled to face the Braves and Marlins next week. … Choose Roark and just about anyone else over Philadelphia Philliesright-hander Roy Halladay. It’s tough to watch the former Cy Young winner, who couldn’t get through five innings against the San Diego Padres Thursday. He walked four consecutive Padres in the fifth inning. His velocity and command just aren’t there, no matter the matchup. … Let’s end on a positive note this week: Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Scooter Gennett had two more hits Thursday, his third consecutive multihit game. He’s hitting .344 in 154 at-bats, and .386 off right-handed pitching. He can help, and it’s always fun to own a man named Scooter.

Have a great weekend everyone!

HacheMan · Sep 16, 2013

[h=1]Bits: Nationals continue to tear it up

[/h][h=5]Eric Karabell[/h]

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The hottest team in the National League, much to the chagrin of the suddenly vulnerableCincinnati Reds, is the Washington Nationals. The Nats have won eight of 10 games and 19 of 25, and among the key hitters in the surge to contention have been third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, outfielder Jayson Werth and shortstop Ian Desmond, each owned in 100 percent of ESPN standard leagues. Of course, they're not the only players putting up good numbers, and fantasy owners still playing for something should notice two others batsmen.

Outfielder Denard Span boasts a 26-game hitting streak, one shy of the major league best for this season, held by Colorado Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer. Span has his batting average up to .284, and while he didn't score a run or steal a base in Sunday's 11-2 romp over the pitching-poor Philadelphia Phillies, he scored two runs and stole three bases Saturday. Span is hitting .320 since the All-Star break, and while he is on ESPN's most-added list, he remains available in roughly half of ESPN leagues. Span is batting .341 against the Miami Marlins this season, and the Nationals face the Marlins later this week (after facing the Atlanta Braves).

Catcher Wilson Ramos, meanwhile, continues to have a monster second half, among the best for his position. Ramos homered among his four hits in as many at-bats and knocked in five runs Sunday, and now has 13 home runs and 49 RBIs in only 54 games since coming off the disabled list in July. That's pretty good! Ramos, who has started 23 consecutive games behind the plate -- no catcher has a longer streak in 2013, evenYadier Molina -- is available in two-thirds of ESPN standard leagues, and looks like a potential 25-homer bat and top-10 backstop in the future.

Box score bits (NL): San Diego Padres outfielder Will Venable became the fourth member of the 20-homer, 20-steal club Sunday, stealing his 20th base, to go with 22 home runs and a surprising .274 batting average. Venable probably won't hit .274 in 2014; that's tough to do with 27 walks against 106 strikeouts and in Petco Park half the time. But as a late-round 20/20 option, sure, go get him. … Padres right-hander Burch Smith earned his first big league win Sunday, striking out 10 Braves over seven shutout innings of three-hit ball. Smith thrived in the minors the past two seasons and does bring strikeout potential. Consider him a spot-start option next weekend at home. … Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Matt Davidson hit his first big league home run Sunday. Davidson has played sparingly, but he hit for power in the minors after being a first-round pick. Dynasty-league owners should consider stashing Davidson for 2014 and beyond. … Los Angeles Dodgersshortstop Dee Gordon led off Sunday, singled twice, drew a walk, scored a run and stole his ninth base in 31 games. Oh, if only this guy could hit enough to earn a starting role. Unfortunately, Sunday is probably not the start of something big. Hanley Ramirez sat this weekend because of a back injury, but is expected to play this week. … In case you missed it, San Francisco Giants outfielder Hunter Pence finished arguably the greatest offensive week of the season with two home runs Sunday. Pence hit six home runs and knocked in 19 in his past six games. He already has reached a career best with 21 stolen bases, and his next home run, should he hit one, will be a career-high 26th.

Box score bits (AL): Detroit Tigers catcher Alex Avila cranked a pair of home runs Sunday, giving him 11 in a disappointing season. Avila, who also had a four-hit game earlier in the week, was a fantasy standout in 2011, but has dealt with injuries since. That said, he's hitting .412 in September and is readily available in ESPN standard leagues. … Los Angeles Angels right-hander Ernesto Frieri earned a two-inning save Sunday, and has permitted one run and only three walks in his past 16 2/3 innings. He's pretty safe now. … Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Colby Rasmus got a deserved day off Sunday, but he homered Friday and Saturday after coming off the disabled list for an oblique injury. Rasmus has 20 home runs and a .275 batting average this year, and is available in nearly half of ESPN leagues. …Cleveland Indians first baseman/outfielder Nick Swisher homered twice Sunday, giving him his ninth consecutive 20-homer campaign, which is quite a feat. Fantasy owners might be disappointed in the overall numbers, but there's also a price to pay for consistency and reliability. Swisher can be added as a free agent in a quarter of leagues. … Oakland Athletics right-hander Jarrod Parker was scratched from his Sunday outing because of an illness, but is expected to face the Angels on Monday night. Parker, who hasn't lost in more than two months, should be activated by fantasy owners for his pending two-start week.

HacheMan · Sep 17, 2013

[h=1]Bits: Andrew Cashner's 2014 value[/h][h=5]Eric Karabell

[/h]
[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Chicago Cubs[/FONT] first baseman [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Anthony Rizzo[/FONT] has 22 home runs and 75 RBIs this season, and is owned in more than 92 percent of ESPN standard leagues. Rizzo is seen as one of the building blocks of the young Cubs, a middle-of-the-order presence for years to come. The Cubs acquired him in Jan. 2012 for a young power arm with upside, one that couldn’t stay healthy and whose ultimate role remained problematic. It seemed like a big Cubs win when Rizzo emerged.

Of course, this year that Padres power arm is definitely healthy, and on Monday night in Pittsburgh Andrew Cashner nearly tossed a perfect game against the playoff-bound Pirates. Cashner’s role is pretty clear these days, as he’s been one of baseball’s under-the-radar success stories. He boasts a 2.36 ERA since the All-Star break and enticing upside. As it is, he ranks better on the ESPN Player Rater than the fellow he was traded for, the Cubs building block first baseman who singled in four at-bats Monday, and while Rizzo’s best days are likely ahead of him, the same can be said for Cashner, owned in fewer than 25 percent of ESPN standard leagues.

[+] Enlarge<cite style="margin: 0px 0px 4px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; display: block; color: rgb(171, 171, 171);">Denis Poroy/Getty Images</cite>Andrew Cashner is 2-0 with a 0.88 ERA and 28 strikeouts in his past four starts.

Cashner became the first Padre to throw a one-hit shutout with no walks and seven or more strikeouts. He permitted a Jose Tabata single to lead off the seventh inning, and that was it. There were no other base runners. Cashner lowered his ERA to 3.21, his WHIP to 1.15 and earned his 10th win of his first full season as a big league starter. Let’s call it a success. Cashner, a first-round pick by the Cubs in 2008, was a terrific minor league starter, but durability was a major issue, so much so that the Cubs used him in relief in 2010, and the Padres weren’t entirely sure what to do with him. Even this April, Cashner appeared mostly in relief.

This prized right arm could go in a few directions in 2014, perhaps to stardom. He’s got Petco Park on his side (2.14 home ERA) but needs a bit of work in road games (4.00 ERA). Cashner clearly made strides this season in lowering his walk rate and being more efficient, and it’s likely kept him on the mound and not the disabled list. In fact, he’s thrown at least seven innings in six consecutive starts.

On the other hand, Cashner’s once-stupendous strikeout rate has dropped quite a bit, along with his fastball, slider and changeup velocity. For comparison, Dillon Gee, Rick Porcello and 60 others have a better K rate. It remains possible Cashner develops into a major strikeout option, but 150 or so over 30 starts seems more likely. Still, he should make another few starts this season, so 175-plus innings with a strong ERA and WHIP likely gets him drafted among the top 60 starting pitchers in 2014. The question is could he emerge as top-20 guy, a potential ace? If his strikeout rate rises, then sure he could. Regardless, add Cashner for his next outing, scheduled for Sunday at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Not only is Cashner terrific at home, but he boasts a 1.83 ERA against the Dodgers this season.

Box score bits (NL): Cincinnati Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto made his long-awaited return to the rotation Monday with five shutout innings against the sad-sack Houston Astros. Cueto allowed five hits and fanned five, throwing 82 pitches. He hadn’t pitched since late-June with a strained lat muscle. Activate Cueto even against tougher opposition, including this weekend in Pittsburgh. … Also coming off a long DL stint Monday was Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp (hamstring). He struck out as a pinch hitter and is not expected to see regular playing time down the stretch, so don’t feel compelled to activate him. … Reds shortstop Zack Cozart homered and knocked in four runs Monday, upping his season marks to .253 with 11 home runs (and zero stolen bases), only enough to make him the No. 20 option at his position for the season. Oh, if only Billy Hamiltonremained a shortstop. By the way, after all the initial Hamilton excitement, he stole one base last week. He still does not have a big league hit. … Milwaukee Brewers outfielderCaleb Gindl homered, tripled, singled, knocked in three and scored three Monday. Gindl also homered Sunday. He doesn’t bring much power potential, but is worth a look in daily leagues against right-handed pitchers.

Box score bits (AL): Detroit Tigers right-hander Rick Porcello followed up his first career complete game last week with a 10-strikeout performance Monday in beating the Seattle Mariners. Porcello allowed one run in six innings. He’s a good spot-start choice later this week against the Chicago White Sox, against whom he is 4-0 with a 2.02 ERA this season. Against all other teams he’s 9-8 with a 5.10 ERA. … The reeling Texas Rangers sent right-hander Matt Garza to the Tampa Bay mound Monday, and it went poorly. Garza has lost three consecutive starts, and only three of his 11 Rangers outings have been quality starts. Move on. … Los Angeles Angels outfielder Kole Calhoun had three hits and three RBIs Monday, and is hitting .393 with 16 RBIs in September. He makes for a wise pickup. … Those relying on Oakland Athletics right-hander Jarrod Parker probably wish his Monday start was skipped, too, after he was pummeled for eight runs (seven earned). Parker’s Sunday outing was pushed back due to illness. On Monday, Parker allowed more than three runs for the first time since July. Still, rely on him this weekend against the Minnesota Twins.

HacheMan · Sep 18, 2013

[h=1]The 2013 Turks: Pitchers[/h][h=3]Identifying some of the notable fantasy pitching performances for the 2013 season.[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

They're baaaaaaaack …

After a one-year absence, "The Turks" have returned.
No, no, this isn't hailing the return of the Donald Faison character from the TV show "Scrubs." (Sorry if I got your hopes up.) For those unfamiliar -- presumably longtime readers will recall -- "The Turks" are my set of postseason awards for (mostly) more unusual baseball feats. They spawned from the nickname with which colleagues saddled me following the consumption of a whole Bull's BBQ turkey leg during the summer of 2005; in truth they're just an excuse to again publish my now-retired Twitter avatar.
With "The Turks," anything goes. Some of these are reused honors, others new. Some are insightful, others silly. Some reward feats of strength, others air grievances. But they run the gamut of Major League Baseball in 2013 -- OK, the 2013 MLB season minus 12 days -- and they are, to put it simply, facts that I enjoyed this season.
As "60 Feet 6 Inches" is our pitching-oriented column, today's honors focus on pitchers. Hitting honors will be doled out in Thursday's "Hit Parade." Neither column this week, however, includes rest-of-year rankings. With 12 days remaining there is negligible difference between these and my weekly Forecaster rankings, which were both published this past Friday for Week 24 (the current scoring period) and will be again this coming Friday for the final week, and contain more matchups-oriented detail. Next week's columns will include early rankings for 2014.
And now, "The Turks"!

Kershaw
The Pedro (fantasy's best pitcher): Clayton Kershaw. First, a little perspective on the award's name: Pedro Martinez might be a familiar name to veteran fantasy baseball owners; he has two of the nine best single seasons in baseball history in terms of ERA+ (1999 and 2000), best illustrated by the fact that his 2.07 and 1.74 ERAs in those years came in seasons during which the American League's overall ERAs were 4.86 and 4.91. Owning Martinez represented a substantial advantage regardless of draft price. Another illustration: He fetched a $50 bid in the 2000 American League version of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) auction … and promptly earned it by posting an ERA nearly two runs better than any AL qualifier (Roger Clemens' 3.70 was second), 72 more strikeouts than any AL'er and, to this day, the greatest WHIP of any qualified pitcher in history (0.74).
Suffice it to say that Kershaw has been worth his draft price -- he was the No. 2 pitcher and No. 13 player selected overall on average -- even if his year wasn't quite Pedro-esque.
Kershaw is the No. 1 pitcher and No. 5 player overall on our Player Rater with 12 days remaining in the season, and he leads the majors in ERA (1.94), WHIP (0.93), quality starts (25) and quality start percentage (81 percent). Perhaps most importantly, he has been a model of consistency: Using Bill James' Game Score metric -- a preferred one of mine for measuring fantasy reliability -- he has the majors' most starts of 50 or better (27), 60 or better (21) and 75 or better (10).
Most encouraging to Kershaw's dynasty/keeper-league owners, he has been impeccably maintained by his Los Angeles Dodgers, averaging 104.7 pitches per start (11th-most among major league qualifiers), only twice all year throwing more than 120 pitches in an outing and boosting his per-start average to a career-best 7.19 innings. He'll be fantasy's No. 1 pitcher entering 2014 as well.

Harvey
The Jamie Moyer (for the best value comparative to draft price): Matt Harvey. Again, some award-name perspective: Moyer, though hardly a superstar, wasconstantly a pitcher who never garnered much draft-day respect. In local leagues of mine, he would routinely sell for $5 or less … only to finish with two 20-win campaigns, three sub-3.50-ERAs and five 20-quality start seasons during the meaty, 1997-2003 portion of his career. Plus, it's yet another opportunity to get the name Jamie Moyer into my column; I'm perpetually rooting for a Moyer comeback, even if only to assure that there's still a player older than me in Major League Baseball.
Harvey's season might be over and his immediate future in doubt, but despite the will-he-undergo-Tommy-John-surgery-or-not debate, he remains the No. 6 pitcher (and No. 5 starter) on our Player Rater, despite not having made an appearance since Aug. 24. If he was truly pitching through elbow discomfort for any period this season, his feats become all the more impressive. With 12 days to play, he has the majors' third-best ERA (2.27), second-best WHIP (0.93), third-best strikeout rate (27.7 percent) and sixth-best quality start percentage (76.9). Best yet: He was the No. 60 pitcher -- and No. 42 pure starter -- selected on average during the preseason.
With word Tuesday that Harvey will attempt to rehabilitate his elbow without surgery, his fantasy prospects become somewhat clouded. You've surely heard the story about Roy Halladay opting against surgery in September 2006; he had 16 wins, 21 quality starts, a 3.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP the following year, his second of a six-year run during which he placed in the top five in his league in Cy Young balloting in each. There's hope for Harvey yet, especially as one of the most promising young pitchers with four top-shelf pitches in his arsenal, but at the same time he'll enter next season with the distinct possibility of any setback costing him a lost 2014 and part of 2015.

Fernandez
The Renoir (for the best off-the-waiver-wire pitching buy): Jose Fernandez. This award itself might seem somewhat obscure, but it's a cap-tip to the 2012 story in which a $7 garage sale buy included an original Renoir painting; the point being that Fernandez was the most productive pitcher of 2013 scooped from the bargain bin. Though the season's concluding 12 days might push him down a couple of spots, Fernandez resided fourth among pitchers on our Player Rater despite having been shut down for the year for the past week. He's the hands-down top choice for National League Rookie of the Year honors, he posted the second-best ERA of any pitcher aged 20 or younger since World War I, and he's one of the most attractive assets in dynasty/keeper leagues. That he was capped at a mere 172 2/3 innings and a 93.2 pitches-per-start average, sixth-lowest among ERA qualifiers, only eases any long-term worry that he's being overworked at a young age.
As for the frustration that Fernandez's season was ended prematurely, damaging his head-to-head owners' chances of a championship, consider how substantial his contributiongetting you there was: He had eight wins, 12 quality starts, a 1.43 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 30.8 percent strikeout rate in 13 starts from July 1 forward. There's a compelling argument to be made that he could be a top-five starter in 2014.

Locke
The "Jekyll and Hyde" (for first-half excellence followed by a second-half swoon): Jeff Locke. No pitcher who has made at least 10 starts in either half has experienced an ERA split as extreme as Locke's; he had a 2.15 ERA in 18 starts before the break to earn an All-Star berth, but slipped to a 5.43 ERA in 11 starts thereafter, including a brief demotion to the minor leagues. Unfortunately, this caused more harm to his fantasy owners than expected; as his ownership percentage rose during midsummer, so, unfortunately, did his ERA.
Locke's Fielding Independent Pitching score (FIP) told the real tale: He had a 3.80 before the All-Star break, and 4.19 thereafter, revealing that his true self is probably someone in the middle, especially if he can't improve what was a 1.55 K-to-walk ratio in the first half and 1.46 in the second.

Jimenez
The "Hyde and Jekyll" (the previous one in reverse; terrible first half followed by great second half): Ubaldo Jimenez. This is the kind of award fantasy owners love, especially those who play in head-to-head formats, as the critical, championship-deciding matchups come during these September weeks. Jimenez not only had the greatest ERA turnaround of any pitcher with at least 10 starts in either half, dropping a 4.56 first-half mark to 1.83 in the second; he has won all three of his September starts thus far, each a quality start, with a 0.42 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 26.5 percent K rate. What made the difference for him was discussed in greater detail last week; the summary is that Jimenez has made some mechanical tweaks that have resulted in a higher average fastball velocity in his past five starts (92.9 mph) than during his first 24 of the season (91.3 mph).
That is a small sample, though, and maintaining the improvement through the remainder of the year is an important step toward assessing his 2014 fantasy potential. Jimenez will warrant careful attention -- specifically to his velocity and command -- once camp opens, as extending it into the spring might make him a value pick.

Strasburg
"Hey Ma, the Meatloaf!" (he who loves home cookin'): Stephen Strasburg. In truth, perhaps this one should go to Barry Zito, who has some of the most absurd home/road splits I've ever seen:
Zito at home: 15 G, 6 QS (46.2 percent), 4 W, 3.71 ERA, 1.43 WHIP.
Zito on road: 13 G, 0 QS (0.0 percent), 0 W, 9.56 ERA, 2.27 WHIP.
It's that 1.43 WHIP at AT&T Park that disqualifies Zito from the honor; the truth is that he has never pitched well enough at any stage to earn our trust for more than the rare spot-start opportunity at home. It's Strasburg's splits that might surprise:
Strasburg at home: 14 GS, 11 QS (78.6 percent), 5 W, 1.55 ERA, 0.84 WHIP.
Strasburg on road: 14 GS, 5 QS (35.7 percent), 2 W, 4.68 ERA, 1.27 WHIP.
This is a new trend for Strasburg, who had a lower ERA on the road than at home in 2010 and 2012, and the oddity is that he had a 12.38 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in his two starts at extreme pitchers' park Miami's Marlins Park, against the league's weakest offense. Discard those games, as well as his mediocre outings at hitter-friendly Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park and at Detroit's Comerica Park against one of the league's most loaded lineups, and Strasburg's numbers might have been more balanced. Everything about these stat lines screams "oddity," and those wondering about his 2014 prospects might be encouraged by this: He had a 3.29 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 28.3 percent K rate (10.16 per nine innings) in 16 starts following his June DL stint for a strained lat muscle. He also suffered in the quality start department during that span -- he had eight -- due to having exited two August starts early, once for an ejection (Aug. 17) and another due to a rain delay (Aug. 28).
Strasburg's 2013 just screams "bad luck."

Shields
I've Been Everywhere, Man, Award (best road performer): James Shields. Again, there's perhaps a more deserving pitcher, in this case Phil Hughes, whose home/road splits show he'll benefit if he leaves the New York Yankeesas a free agent this winter, as expected:
Hughes at home: 16 G, 6 QS (40.0 percent), 6.13 ERA, 1.48 WHIP.
Hughes on road: 12 G, 5 QS (41.7 percent), 3.80 ERA, 1.36 WHIP.
Shields' splits, however, are the more relevant ones to most fantasy owners. A pitcher who has historically thrived in controlled environments (domes and retractable-roof stadiums), he has been a much better road than home pitcher this year:
Shields at home: 15 GS, 10 QS (66.7 percent), 4.73 ERA, 1.42 WHIP.
Shields on road: 17 GS, 15 QS (88.2 percent), 2.12 ERA, 1.13 WHIP.
It's this split that has limited Shields to merely 34th among pure starting pitchers on our Player Rater this season, but then so has his mere 12 wins compared to a major league-leading 25 quality starts. And while it's a minuscule sample, he has registered a quality start in both controlled environments in which he has pitched this season: Houston's Minute Maid Park (May 22) and Toronto's Rogers Centre (Sept. 1), further evidence that he's a pitcher who enjoys working indoors. The Kansas City Royals seem likely to exercise Shields' $12 million option for 2014 -- the alternative is paying him a $1 million buyout -- but if he were to somehow escape K.C. for a city like Arizona, Miami, Milwaukee, Houston, Seattle, Tampa or Toronto, he might become a more attractive pick for 2014 based upon this history.

Hamels
Hard-Luck Award (for the pitcher with the most non-win quality starts): Cole Hamels (16). Go figure, for the second consecutive season this honor is bestowed upon a Philadelphia Phillies left-hander; Cliff Lee was the 2012 leader in the category (15). Hamels' 16 are actually seventh-most since 1916 (the first season for which Baseball-Reference.com has game-by-game data available) -- six pitchers had 17, most recently Felix Hernandez (2010 Cy Young season) -- and he has two more starts this year in which he can match or break that all-time record.
Hamels hasn't gone more than two starts all season without registering a quality start, and his statistics this year, with the exception of his win total (8) and run support (3.48 per nine innings), aren't out of line with any of those in his past. Teammate Lee is as outstanding a comparison as there is; he bounced back from a 6-win 2012 to win 14 games this season, despite his run support only slightly increasing (3.99, up from 3.20). Hamels might yet enjoy that kind of bump in 14, with a bit greater fortune.

Miller
Back-'em Up Award (for the pitcher most fortunate in the win category):Shelby Miller. It certainly doesn't seem like Miller benefited from extremely good fortune, but the numbers confirm it. He has 14 wins this season, 11th-most in the majors, but only 12 quality starts, a number exceeded by 84 other pitchers. In eight of Miller's 14 wins, in fact, he failed to even pitch into the seventh inning. Granted, some of that was by the St. Louis Cardinals' design, as they aimed to keep their 22-year-old budding ace's innings in check.
Fantasy owners who were paying attention during the season's early stages probably remember Miller as one of the most valuable starters; he had eight wins, seven quality starts, a 2.08 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 28.6 percent K rate (10.01 per nine innings) through his June 17 game. Since then, however, he has six wins, five quality starts, a 4.08 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and a 19.7 percent K rate (7.92 per nine innings). It's actually not automatic that he'll blossom into a clear top-20 starter as soon as 2014.

Liriano
Um, I Forgot to Drink My Coffee? … Award (for the call I got most terribly wrong): Anything about Francisco Liriano. He's the pitcher I labeled "Captain Kryptonite" on Eric Karabell's and my weekly Friday Fantasy Focus appearances, due to Liriano's extensive track record of up-and-down performances. Come season's end, however, Liriano is a near-lock for top-30 starter status -- he's currently 24th at the position on our Player Rater -- and he has an impressive 16 quality starts in 24 tries, for a career-best 66.7 percent rate. Knowing what we know about Pittsburgh Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage, one of the best in the game at his craft, Liriano's comeback shouldn't have been as unexpected as I judged it; I should've known at the time I said this on June 7. And, as he's still under contract for another season, meaning he'll work with Searage again in 2014, Liriano might warrant as healthy as a top-30 starter ranking next year, too.

Cashner
Row, Row, Row Your Boat Award (for the best streamer during the fantasy stretch run): Andrew Cashner. It's remarkable that, even today, Cashner remains available in more than 75 percent of ESPN leagues, despite the fact that he's the No. 42 pure starting pitcher on our Player Rater. What's more, he has five wins, nine quality starts, a 2.36 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 20.1 percent K rate (7.08 per nine innings) in 10 starts since the All-Star break. He even kicked off the championship-matchup first week in ESPN leagues with a one-hit, minimum-27-batter shutout of the Pittsburgh Pirates on the road this past Monday.
Once an elite strikeout artist, Cashner has made substantial improvements to his command while improving his endurance. His 6.9 percent walk rate is a career best, and his 168 innings pitched are 57 more than he has thrown in any previous season. With those in mind, Cashner could mount a sneaky top-30-starter run in 2014.

Melancon
Hold Me, Thrill Me, Kiss Me, Save Me Award (for the best mix of holds andsaves production): Mark Melancon (42 saves plus holds). This one could really go to any of several players -- Kenley Jansen actually has one fewer saves-plus-holds (41) -- but Melancon gets it for a simple reason. Consider: His 26 holds through July 22 were the majors' most, and his 14 saves from July 23 forward are fifth most. If you're wondering about the significance of July 23, it was the date the Pittsburgh Pirates placed then-closer Jason Grilli on the DL with a forearm injury.
What has made the difference for Melancon this season has been vastly improved command, thanks primarily to continued polish of his cutter. He slashed his walk rate from 8.4 percent in 2011, to 6.2 percent in 2012, to 3.1 percent this season, and threw his cutter 68 percent of the time this season, limiting opponents to .245/.273/.277 rates while resulting in 68 of his 95 ground-ball outs. Fortunately, Pirates manager Clint Hurdle made it clear in the past week that the closer job is Melancon's for the remainder of this year; but which one might close next year? Ah, it might be the most compelling of the closer debates entering 2014.

Peralta
Just Hold Me Award (for the best holds performer): Joel Peralta (major league-leading 37 holds). Though he rarely garners much attention outside of the marginal handcuff appeal in deeper leagues (usually AL-only and 14-plus-team mixed), Peralta has quietly become one of the most dominant forces in holds leagues of any pitcher the past two seasons. Consider: He is on track to lead the majors in the category for the second straight year -- he also had 37 in 2012 -- and his 93 holds since the beginning of 2011 rank second only toDavid Robertson's 96.
Robertson has already become the subject of much buzz as a setup-man-soon-to-be-closer with Mariano Rivera set for retirement this winter, but might Peralta do the same should theTampa Bay Rays allow incumbent closer Fernando Rodney to depart via free agency? While Peralta might not possess the kind of upside that Rodney does, why should anyone doubt a Rays bullpen decision? Keep in mind that each of the past three pitchers the Rays selected to close -- Rafael Soriano (2010), Kyle Farnsworth (2011) and Rodney (2012) -- has vastly outperformed his ADP.

HacheMan · Sep 18, 2013

[h=1]The 2013 Turks: Pitchers[/h][h=3]Identifying some of the notable fantasy pitching performances for the 2013 season.[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

They're baaaaaaaack …

After a one-year absence, "The Turks" have returned.
No, no, this isn't hailing the return of the Donald Faison character from the TV show "Scrubs." (Sorry if I got your hopes up.) For those unfamiliar -- presumably longtime readers will recall -- "The Turks" are my set of postseason awards for (mostly) more unusual baseball feats. They spawned from the nickname with which colleagues saddled me following the consumption of a whole Bull's BBQ turkey leg during the summer of 2005; in truth they're just an excuse to again publish my now-retired Twitter avatar.
With "The Turks," anything goes. Some of these are reused honors, others new. Some are insightful, others silly. Some reward feats of strength, others air grievances. But they run the gamut of Major League Baseball in 2013 -- OK, the 2013 MLB season minus 12 days -- and they are, to put it simply, facts that I enjoyed this season.
As "60 Feet 6 Inches" is our pitching-oriented column, today's honors focus on pitchers. Hitting honors will be doled out in Thursday's "Hit Parade." Neither column this week, however, includes rest-of-year rankings. With 12 days remaining there is negligible difference between these and my weekly Forecaster rankings, which were both published this past Friday for Week 24 (the current scoring period) and will be again this coming Friday for the final week, and contain more matchups-oriented detail. Next week's columns will include early rankings for 2014.
And now, "The Turks"!

Kershaw
The Pedro (fantasy's best pitcher): Clayton Kershaw. First, a little perspective on the award's name: Pedro Martinez might be a familiar name to veteran fantasy baseball owners; he has two of the nine best single seasons in baseball history in terms of ERA+ (1999 and 2000), best illustrated by the fact that his 2.07 and 1.74 ERAs in those years came in seasons during which the American League's overall ERAs were 4.86 and 4.91. Owning Martinez represented a substantial advantage regardless of draft price. Another illustration: He fetched a $50 bid in the 2000 American League version of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) auction … and promptly earned it by posting an ERA nearly two runs better than any AL qualifier (Roger Clemens' 3.70 was second), 72 more strikeouts than any AL'er and, to this day, the greatest WHIP of any qualified pitcher in history (0.74).
Suffice it to say that Kershaw has been worth his draft price -- he was the No. 2 pitcher and No. 13 player selected overall on average -- even if his year wasn't quite Pedro-esque.
Kershaw is the No. 1 pitcher and No. 5 player overall on our Player Rater with 12 days remaining in the season, and he leads the majors in ERA (1.94), WHIP (0.93), quality starts (25) and quality start percentage (81 percent). Perhaps most importantly, he has been a model of consistency: Using Bill James' Game Score metric -- a preferred one of mine for measuring fantasy reliability -- he has the majors' most starts of 50 or better (27), 60 or better (21) and 75 or better (10).
Most encouraging to Kershaw's dynasty/keeper-league owners, he has been impeccably maintained by his Los Angeles Dodgers, averaging 104.7 pitches per start (11th-most among major league qualifiers), only twice all year throwing more than 120 pitches in an outing and boosting his per-start average to a career-best 7.19 innings. He'll be fantasy's No. 1 pitcher entering 2014 as well.

Harvey
The Jamie Moyer (for the best value comparative to draft price): Matt Harvey. Again, some award-name perspective: Moyer, though hardly a superstar, wasconstantly a pitcher who never garnered much draft-day respect. In local leagues of mine, he would routinely sell for $5 or less … only to finish with two 20-win campaigns, three sub-3.50-ERAs and five 20-quality start seasons during the meaty, 1997-2003 portion of his career. Plus, it's yet another opportunity to get the name Jamie Moyer into my column; I'm perpetually rooting for a Moyer comeback, even if only to assure that there's still a player older than me in Major League Baseball.
Harvey's season might be over and his immediate future in doubt, but despite the will-he-undergo-Tommy-John-surgery-or-not debate, he remains the No. 6 pitcher (and No. 5 starter) on our Player Rater, despite not having made an appearance since Aug. 24. If he was truly pitching through elbow discomfort for any period this season, his feats become all the more impressive. With 12 days to play, he has the majors' third-best ERA (2.27), second-best WHIP (0.93), third-best strikeout rate (27.7 percent) and sixth-best quality start percentage (76.9). Best yet: He was the No. 60 pitcher -- and No. 42 pure starter -- selected on average during the preseason.
With word Tuesday that Harvey will attempt to rehabilitate his elbow without surgery, his fantasy prospects become somewhat clouded. You've surely heard the story about Roy Halladay opting against surgery in September 2006; he had 16 wins, 21 quality starts, a 3.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP the following year, his second of a six-year run during which he placed in the top five in his league in Cy Young balloting in each. There's hope for Harvey yet, especially as one of the most promising young pitchers with four top-shelf pitches in his arsenal, but at the same time he'll enter next season with the distinct possibility of any setback costing him a lost 2014 and part of 2015.

Fernandez
The Renoir (for the best off-the-waiver-wire pitching buy): Jose Fernandez. This award itself might seem somewhat obscure, but it's a cap-tip to the 2012 story in which a $7 garage sale buy included an original Renoir painting; the point being that Fernandez was the most productive pitcher of 2013 scooped from the bargain bin. Though the season's concluding 12 days might push him down a couple of spots, Fernandez resided fourth among pitchers on our Player Rater despite having been shut down for the year for the past week. He's the hands-down top choice for National League Rookie of the Year honors, he posted the second-best ERA of any pitcher aged 20 or younger since World War I, and he's one of the most attractive assets in dynasty/keeper leagues. That he was capped at a mere 172 2/3 innings and a 93.2 pitches-per-start average, sixth-lowest among ERA qualifiers, only eases any long-term worry that he's being overworked at a young age.
As for the frustration that Fernandez's season was ended prematurely, damaging his head-to-head owners' chances of a championship, consider how substantial his contributiongetting you there was: He had eight wins, 12 quality starts, a 1.43 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 30.8 percent strikeout rate in 13 starts from July 1 forward. There's a compelling argument to be made that he could be a top-five starter in 2014.

Locke
The "Jekyll and Hyde" (for first-half excellence followed by a second-half swoon): Jeff Locke. No pitcher who has made at least 10 starts in either half has experienced an ERA split as extreme as Locke's; he had a 2.15 ERA in 18 starts before the break to earn an All-Star berth, but slipped to a 5.43 ERA in 11 starts thereafter, including a brief demotion to the minor leagues. Unfortunately, this caused more harm to his fantasy owners than expected; as his ownership percentage rose during midsummer, so, unfortunately, did his ERA.
Locke's Fielding Independent Pitching score (FIP) told the real tale: He had a 3.80 before the All-Star break, and 4.19 thereafter, revealing that his true self is probably someone in the middle, especially if he can't improve what was a 1.55 K-to-walk ratio in the first half and 1.46 in the second.

Jimenez
The "Hyde and Jekyll" (the previous one in reverse; terrible first half followed by great second half): Ubaldo Jimenez. This is the kind of award fantasy owners love, especially those who play in head-to-head formats, as the critical, championship-deciding matchups come during these September weeks. Jimenez not only had the greatest ERA turnaround of any pitcher with at least 10 starts in either half, dropping a 4.56 first-half mark to 1.83 in the second; he has won all three of his September starts thus far, each a quality start, with a 0.42 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 26.5 percent K rate. What made the difference for him was discussed in greater detail last week; the summary is that Jimenez has made some mechanical tweaks that have resulted in a higher average fastball velocity in his past five starts (92.9 mph) than during his first 24 of the season (91.3 mph).
That is a small sample, though, and maintaining the improvement through the remainder of the year is an important step toward assessing his 2014 fantasy potential. Jimenez will warrant careful attention -- specifically to his velocity and command -- once camp opens, as extending it into the spring might make him a value pick.

Strasburg
"Hey Ma, the Meatloaf!" (he who loves home cookin'): Stephen Strasburg. In truth, perhaps this one should go to Barry Zito, who has some of the most absurd home/road splits I've ever seen:
Zito at home: 15 G, 6 QS (46.2 percent), 4 W, 3.71 ERA, 1.43 WHIP.
Zito on road: 13 G, 0 QS (0.0 percent), 0 W, 9.56 ERA, 2.27 WHIP.
It's that 1.43 WHIP at AT&T Park that disqualifies Zito from the honor; the truth is that he has never pitched well enough at any stage to earn our trust for more than the rare spot-start opportunity at home. It's Strasburg's splits that might surprise:
Strasburg at home: 14 GS, 11 QS (78.6 percent), 5 W, 1.55 ERA, 0.84 WHIP.
Strasburg on road: 14 GS, 5 QS (35.7 percent), 2 W, 4.68 ERA, 1.27 WHIP.
This is a new trend for Strasburg, who had a lower ERA on the road than at home in 2010 and 2012, and the oddity is that he had a 12.38 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in his two starts at extreme pitchers' park Miami's Marlins Park, against the league's weakest offense. Discard those games, as well as his mediocre outings at hitter-friendly Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park and at Detroit's Comerica Park against one of the league's most loaded lineups, and Strasburg's numbers might have been more balanced. Everything about these stat lines screams "oddity," and those wondering about his 2014 prospects might be encouraged by this: He had a 3.29 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 28.3 percent K rate (10.16 per nine innings) in 16 starts following his June DL stint for a strained lat muscle. He also suffered in the quality start department during that span -- he had eight -- due to having exited two August starts early, once for an ejection (Aug. 17) and another due to a rain delay (Aug. 28).
Strasburg's 2013 just screams "bad luck."

Shields
I've Been Everywhere, Man, Award (best road performer): James Shields. Again, there's perhaps a more deserving pitcher, in this case Phil Hughes, whose home/road splits show he'll benefit if he leaves the New York Yankeesas a free agent this winter, as expected:
Hughes at home: 16 G, 6 QS (40.0 percent), 6.13 ERA, 1.48 WHIP.
Hughes on road: 12 G, 5 QS (41.7 percent), 3.80 ERA, 1.36 WHIP.
Shields' splits, however, are the more relevant ones to most fantasy owners. A pitcher who has historically thrived in controlled environments (domes and retractable-roof stadiums), he has been a much better road than home pitcher this year:
Shields at home: 15 GS, 10 QS (66.7 percent), 4.73 ERA, 1.42 WHIP.
Shields on road: 17 GS, 15 QS (88.2 percent), 2.12 ERA, 1.13 WHIP.
It's this split that has limited Shields to merely 34th among pure starting pitchers on our Player Rater this season, but then so has his mere 12 wins compared to a major league-leading 25 quality starts. And while it's a minuscule sample, he has registered a quality start in both controlled environments in which he has pitched this season: Houston's Minute Maid Park (May 22) and Toronto's Rogers Centre (Sept. 1), further evidence that he's a pitcher who enjoys working indoors. The Kansas City Royals seem likely to exercise Shields' $12 million option for 2014 -- the alternative is paying him a $1 million buyout -- but if he were to somehow escape K.C. for a city like Arizona, Miami, Milwaukee, Houston, Seattle, Tampa or Toronto, he might become a more attractive pick for 2014 based upon this history.

Hamels
Hard-Luck Award (for the pitcher with the most non-win quality starts): Cole Hamels (16). Go figure, for the second consecutive season this honor is bestowed upon a Philadelphia Phillies left-hander; Cliff Lee was the 2012 leader in the category (15). Hamels' 16 are actually seventh-most since 1916 (the first season for which Baseball-Reference.com has game-by-game data available) -- six pitchers had 17, most recently Felix Hernandez (2010 Cy Young season) -- and he has two more starts this year in which he can match or break that all-time record.
Hamels hasn't gone more than two starts all season without registering a quality start, and his statistics this year, with the exception of his win total (8) and run support (3.48 per nine innings), aren't out of line with any of those in his past. Teammate Lee is as outstanding a comparison as there is; he bounced back from a 6-win 2012 to win 14 games this season, despite his run support only slightly increasing (3.99, up from 3.20). Hamels might yet enjoy that kind of bump in 14, with a bit greater fortune.

Miller
Back-'em Up Award (for the pitcher most fortunate in the win category):Shelby Miller. It certainly doesn't seem like Miller benefited from extremely good fortune, but the numbers confirm it. He has 14 wins this season, 11th-most in the majors, but only 12 quality starts, a number exceeded by 84 other pitchers. In eight of Miller's 14 wins, in fact, he failed to even pitch into the seventh inning. Granted, some of that was by the St. Louis Cardinals' design, as they aimed to keep their 22-year-old budding ace's innings in check.
Fantasy owners who were paying attention during the season's early stages probably remember Miller as one of the most valuable starters; he had eight wins, seven quality starts, a 2.08 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 28.6 percent K rate (10.01 per nine innings) through his June 17 game. Since then, however, he has six wins, five quality starts, a 4.08 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and a 19.7 percent K rate (7.92 per nine innings). It's actually not automatic that he'll blossom into a clear top-20 starter as soon as 2014.

Liriano
Um, I Forgot to Drink My Coffee? … Award (for the call I got most terribly wrong): Anything about Francisco Liriano. He's the pitcher I labeled "Captain Kryptonite" on Eric Karabell's and my weekly Friday Fantasy Focus appearances, due to Liriano's extensive track record of up-and-down performances. Come season's end, however, Liriano is a near-lock for top-30 starter status -- he's currently 24th at the position on our Player Rater -- and he has an impressive 16 quality starts in 24 tries, for a career-best 66.7 percent rate. Knowing what we know about Pittsburgh Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage, one of the best in the game at his craft, Liriano's comeback shouldn't have been as unexpected as I judged it; I should've known at the time I said this on June 7. And, as he's still under contract for another season, meaning he'll work with Searage again in 2014, Liriano might warrant as healthy as a top-30 starter ranking next year, too.

Cashner
Row, Row, Row Your Boat Award (for the best streamer during the fantasy stretch run): Andrew Cashner. It's remarkable that, even today, Cashner remains available in more than 75 percent of ESPN leagues, despite the fact that he's the No. 42 pure starting pitcher on our Player Rater. What's more, he has five wins, nine quality starts, a 2.36 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 20.1 percent K rate (7.08 per nine innings) in 10 starts since the All-Star break. He even kicked off the championship-matchup first week in ESPN leagues with a one-hit, minimum-27-batter shutout of the Pittsburgh Pirates on the road this past Monday.
Once an elite strikeout artist, Cashner has made substantial improvements to his command while improving his endurance. His 6.9 percent walk rate is a career best, and his 168 innings pitched are 57 more than he has thrown in any previous season. With those in mind, Cashner could mount a sneaky top-30-starter run in 2014.

Melancon
Hold Me, Thrill Me, Kiss Me, Save Me Award (for the best mix of holds andsaves production): Mark Melancon (42 saves plus holds). This one could really go to any of several players -- Kenley Jansen actually has one fewer saves-plus-holds (41) -- but Melancon gets it for a simple reason. Consider: His 26 holds through July 22 were the majors' most, and his 14 saves from July 23 forward are fifth most. If you're wondering about the significance of July 23, it was the date the Pittsburgh Pirates placed then-closer Jason Grilli on the DL with a forearm injury.
What has made the difference for Melancon this season has been vastly improved command, thanks primarily to continued polish of his cutter. He slashed his walk rate from 8.4 percent in 2011, to 6.2 percent in 2012, to 3.1 percent this season, and threw his cutter 68 percent of the time this season, limiting opponents to .245/.273/.277 rates while resulting in 68 of his 95 ground-ball outs. Fortunately, Pirates manager Clint Hurdle made it clear in the past week that the closer job is Melancon's for the remainder of this year; but which one might close next year? Ah, it might be the most compelling of the closer debates entering 2014.

Peralta
Just Hold Me Award (for the best holds performer): Joel Peralta (major league-leading 37 holds). Though he rarely garners much attention outside of the marginal handcuff appeal in deeper leagues (usually AL-only and 14-plus-team mixed), Peralta has quietly become one of the most dominant forces in holds leagues of any pitcher the past two seasons. Consider: He is on track to lead the majors in the category for the second straight year -- he also had 37 in 2012 -- and his 93 holds since the beginning of 2011 rank second only toDavid Robertson's 96.
Robertson has already become the subject of much buzz as a setup-man-soon-to-be-closer with Mariano Rivera set for retirement this winter, but might Peralta do the same should theTampa Bay Rays allow incumbent closer Fernando Rodney to depart via free agency? While Peralta might not possess the kind of upside that Rodney does, why should anyone doubt a Rays bullpen decision? Keep in mind that each of the past three pitchers the Rays selected to close -- Rafael Soriano (2010), Kyle Farnsworth (2011) and Rodney (2012) -- has vastly outperformed his ADP.

HacheMan · Sep 18, 2013

[h=1]Bits: Kemp, Ramirez, Marte return

[/h][h=5]Eric Karabell[/h]
Several National League playoff teams welcomed back key offensive players to the lineup Tuesday, and fantasy owners certainly needed to pay attention. Los Angeles Dodgersoutfielder Matt Kemp (hamstring) went 4-for-4 in his first start since July, with a pair of doubles and three RBIs, while shortstop Hanley Ramirez (back) singled, drew three walks and scored three runs in the 9-3 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Meanwhile in Pittsburgh, left fielder Starling Marte (finger) singled in three at-bats in his first start in a month, though the Pirates fell to the San Diego Padres, 5-2.

Kemp’s performance is mighty enticing to fantasy owners, as the consensus first-round pick from draft day enters Tuesday outside the top 100 outfielders on the Player Rater. He’s owned in 98 percent of standard leagues, so his owners waited, but who knows how many of them still have something to play for. Even now, nobody can be sure what statistics he’ll deliver. Kemp’s 39-homer, 40-steal season of 2011 seems a long way off. He’s at five home runs and nine stolen bases in more than a third of a full-season’s at-bats, hardly comparable. It’s not likely he’ll be running much the final 10 days of the regular season, and the risk for fantasy owners is that the Dodgers, with the NL West division title nearly secured, play Kemp sporadically. As for next season, it’s tough to view Kemp as a top-10 pick. The second round makes more sense.

Ramirez has had issues staying healthy in 2013, but his numbers are tremendous, with a .343 batting average, 18 home runs and 10 steals in roughly half a season of at-bats. Shortstops just don’t do that. In fact, no player is currently doing that (including the batting average), no matter the at-bats. Ramirez is higher on the Player Rater than all but five at his position, despite playing in only 80 games. Again, the risk for those needing every last game in fantasy is that the Dodgers rest him for October, using Nick Puntoor Dee Gordon instead, and as with Kemp, he is likely a top-20 option for 2014 drafts. I’d take Ramirez over Kemp.

Where does Marte go in 2014 drafts? Well, the sabermetrically inclined are aware of Marte’s poor plate discipline, with 25 walks against 128 strikeouts, and how his .282 batting average at least seems unlikely to repeat because of it. Marte’s BABIP is .362, well above the league norm, though it’s fair to say for someone with his speed that might not be unusual. After all, Detroit Tigers right-handed hitting outfielderAustin Jackson has a career .363 BABIP. Marte steals more bases than Jackson and boasts modest power, but he’s also 24. He’s not a top-30 player for next season’s drafts, but he is close. As for the final 10 days, look for Marte to play regularly, as the Pirates have clinched nothing yet and would love to avoid a one-game playoff.

Box score bits (NL): Give credit to the surging Washington Nationals for making the NL wild card race interesting, and outfielder Denard Span continues to play a critical role. Span extended his hitting streak to 28 games Tuesday, longest in the majors this season, and stole a base in each game of the doubleheader! He’s the No. 6 outfielder on the Player Rater for the past 30 days, yet still available in many leagues. … Nationals right-handerTanner Roark continues to thrive, tossing seven innings of two-hit shutout ball against the first-place Atlanta Braves Tuesday. Roark lowered his ERA to 1.08 and is scheduled to make two starts next week. At this point he’s worth adding in all formats, regardless of opponent. … San Francisco Giants outfielder Angel Pagan, who missed three months with a severe hamstring injury, is hitting over .400 in the past few weeks. On Tuesday, he was 3-for-3 with his fourth home run, two walks and two runs scored. Pagan isn’t stealing many bases, but he’s a decent addition down the stretch. … Padres closer Huston Street left the team for a death in the family, ceding Tuesday’s save to right-hander Luke Gregerson. It will be interesting to see where Gregerson ends up in 2014, as he’s been on the verge of closing for the Padres for years, and his contract is up.

Box score bits (AL): Kansas City Royals right-hander Yordano Ventura allowed a run in 5 2/3 innings of his major league debut Tuesday, striking out three. Ventura, 22, throws really hard but still permitted more hits than he had innings at Triple-A Omaha. In fact, Ventura threw six pitches of 100 mph or more. Only two starting pitchers all season have thrown more (Gerrit Cole, Nate Eovaldi). Consider Ventura a spot-start option next week and remember the enticing name in 2014 drafts. … Forget the name Jeremy Hellickson. The former Rookie of the Year was pounded for five runs in 2 2/3 innings against the slumpingTexas Rangers Tuesday, and his ERA is up to an AL-worst 5.23. His last quality start was more than a month ago. The Rays could use prospect Jake Odorizzi in Hellickson’s place next week. … Meanwhile, the Rangers were pleased with their starter, as right-hander Alexi Ogando, a reliever this month since returning from a shoulder injury, threw hard for five one-run innings, earning the win. Ogando is expected to face the Royals Sunday, and he comes recommended. … Toronto Blue Jays knuckleballer R.A. Dickey might end up known as a disappointment in 2013, but he’s helping owners lately. He tossed seven shutout innings to beat the New York Yankees Tuesday and has won four consecutive decisions. Dickey, the No. 16 starting pitcher in average live drafts, is No. 62 for the season. But he is No. 14 over the past 30 days, so there is a bright side if your Dickey-led team is contending. Next season, I’d say Dickey belongs in the 30-35 range among starting pitchers.

HacheMan · Sep 19, 2013

[h=1]The 2013 Turks: Hitters[/h][h=3]Identifying some of the notable fantasy hitting performances for the 2013 season[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout?

Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera?
It's a debate -- both on the field and in fantasy -- that has raged on for more than a calendar year, and is sure to extend for at least the next calendar year. On the morning of Sept. 19, Cabrera held a razor-thin edge on our Player Rater, leading Trout by less than one-tenth of a point. The race for fantasy baseball's most productive player of 2013, therefore, is on.
Now I know what you're thinking: You want me to tell you which one will be better in the season's final 11 days, scoring that top spot, don't you?

OK, I'll take Trout, as he's the one more likely to garner the greater number of plate appearances the rest of the way, considering Cabrera has dealt with minor but nagging injuries since July, and that his Detroit Tigers might prefer to rest him for the playoffs once they've clinched rather than push him in a pair of meaningless three-game road series in Minnesota and Miami to conclude the regular season.
But if you're fishing for the name of the No. 1 player in my early 2014 rankings, you'll just have to check back next week, when rankings return. For this week, rest-of-year rankings have been removed; any matchups-related information for the season's final 11 days can be found in either my Week 24 Forecaster, or my season-concluding Week 25 edition that will be published Friday.
For now, let's resume our awards conversation, which began with Wednesday's 60 Feet, 6 Inches. It's time for the hitters' side of "The Turks," my annual awards handed out for (mostly) unusual statistical baseball feats.
Here we go!

Trout
The Babe (fantasy's best hitter): Mike Trout. First, some perspective on the award's name: Babe Ruth is a household name to any baseball fan -- even my 6-year-old son knows about Babe Ruth -- but what many might fail to appreciate is how substantial his statistical advantage was comparative to his brethren during the earlier stages of his career. Consider this: In 1919, Ruth swatted a major league-leading 29 home runs; that was more than 10 of the 16 teams in baseball hit. And in 1920, Ruth hit 54 to again set a new standard; that was more than 14 of the 16 teams hit, and it was 8.6 percent of baseball's entire total! To compare, Chris Davis, this season's leading home run hitter (with 51) has hit only 1.2 percent of the majors' total. Had fantasy baseball existed in the 1920s, there might have needed to be a "Babe Ruth rule": Either he was ineligible to be drafted, or his statistical categories were drafted separately (one team gets his homers, another his RBIs, etc.), due to the comparative advantage he provided.
No one in today's game enjoys that kind of advantage, but Trout gets the edge here because of what he provides on the basepaths: He has 30 more stolen bases (33-3) and eight more runs scored (108-100) than Cabrera, and in a season in which steals production overall is down, it's the speedster you want if his other offensive contributions are good. There is no "clear" answer to the Player Rater leader question; perhaps I merely want to reward Trout after he was so badly stiffed in last year's MVP balloting.

Davis
The Breakout fantasy player of the year: Chris Davis. Davis just broke Brady Anderson's Baltimore Orioles franchise record for home runs on Tuesday, hitting his 51st, and he is now one of only two players in the past six seasons to have reached the 50-homer threshold (Jose Bautista, with 54 in 2010, is the other). Davis' accomplishments this year are astonishing: He has averaged one home run per 10.7 at-bats, has hit a major league-leading 14 opposite-field homers and has hit 24 home runs on the road (second only to Cabrera's 27), alleviating any concern that he was a ballpark-fueled power product. What's more, Davis has done it by substantially improving his plate discipline, with his 10.5 percent walk rate representing an increase of nearly 4 percent, and his 31 percent chase rate a 5-plus percent improvement.
Chris Davis was this year's breakout player of the year, hands down. He was the No. 86 hitter, and No. 149 player overall, selected in the preseason, and come season's end, he'll probably be the No. 3 hitter and player overall on our Player Rater.

Donaldson
The Renoir (for the best off-the-waiver-wire hitting buy): Josh Donaldson. This award could just as easily have gone to Jean Segura or Matt Carpenter, but I dig deep when dishing these out. Both of them were late-round picks even in our standard 10-team mixed game, and upon the conclusion of the season's first weekend -- the April 6-7 one which often represents draft day for those who use old-school, traditional Rotisserie rules -- Carpenter was owned in 66.8 percent of ESPN leagues, and Segura was owned in 24.1 percent of them. Donaldson, meanwhile, was on rosters in only 0.4 percent of ESPN leagues, and to illustrate how unknown of a player he was, he was a mere $2 buy in the annual League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) and $10 in Tout Wars AL-only auctions; those are 12-team AL-only leagues with standard rosters (i.e. it's uber-deep).
With the lone exception of a so-so July -- he batted just .233/.340/.356 with three home runs in 25 games that month -- Donaldson has been consistently productive, with a batting average of .300 or better in four other months (April, May, June and September) and an OPS of at least .822 in every month but July. The result is a No. 24 current standing among hitters on our Player Rater, fifth among third base-eligibles and third at that position among players who will retain 2014 eligibility there. And as Donaldson has improved his plate-discipline numbers to the point that they're almost spot-on to the ones he enjoyed in the minors -- he has an 11.1 percent walk rate and a 16.4 percent strikeout rate this year (11.8 and 17.9 during his minor league career) -- he has an outstanding chance of repeating the performance in 2014, albeit with some possible batting-average correction (perhaps to the .280-.290 range).

Carpenter
The Tony Phillips (for the most versatile, productive player in fantasy): Matt Carpenter. Carpenter deserves some hardware, even if he missed the cut in the category above. It's both his role as the St. Louis Cardinals' leadoff hitter, as well as his multi-position eligibility, that warrants a mention this season. Here's a fun Carpenter fact: Using Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index (PI) tool, we can determine that there have been only 23 instances of a season during which a player appeared in at least 20 games apiece at first base, second base and third base to earn eligibility at all three in the subsequent season, and of those 23, only Frank Catalanotto (2000), Vic Power (1959) and Pete Runnels (1958) managed numbers in those follow-up campaigns that would have placed even in theballpark of Carpenter's top-five status at all three on the 2013 Player Rater (and none would really have been close). Granted, this ignores the fact Carpenter actually didn't enter 2013 with second base eligibility, but researching first-and-third eligibles who added second base to the mix in-season would be massively time-consuming.
The point is that Carpenter's season has been one for the fantasy record books, one during which he has the majors' most runs scored (119), hits (190) and doubles (51, though he's tied with Manny Machado for that lead), and one during which he was adapting to full-time duty at the somewhat unfamiliar position of second base. Better yet, Carpenter played 40 games at third base, so he'll enter 2014 dual-eligible again.

Venable
The Late-Season Savior (for the most remarkable turnaround, mostly off the waiver wire, during the stretch run): Will Venable. Venable has earned "Hit Parade" praise on numerous occasions over the past several weeks, and it's with good reason. He was widely available in ESPN leagues for much of the summer, and on our Player Rater "Last 30" split, he's the No. 23 hitter thanks to .295/.336/.495 triple-slash rates, five home runs, 11 RBIs, six stolen bases and 15 runs scored in 26 games. But it's actually his second-half performance that warrants mention: He's a .325/.363/.569 hitter with 11 homers and 11 steals in 54 games since the All-Star break.
Venable's specific improvements were the topic of last week's column, but the importance of repeating his name here is to tout his remaining schedule: @PIT-1, LAD-3, ARI-4, @SF-3. That's four more road games, and 10 of his final 11 that, as things stand now, have him projected to face right-handed starters.

Johnson
That Ball Had Eyes Award (for the highest BABIP in baseball): Chris Johnson(.401). Four-oh-one! Perhaps that number won't mean anything to you, but putting it into historical perspective might: If it sticks -- he has 11 days left to maintain it -- it would be only the 57th instance in history of a .400-plus BABIP season, the 46th among players with at least 500 plate appearances in the given season and, most remarkably, the second-highest BABIP in the history of baseball in which the player struck out at least three times as often as he walked (Jose Hernandez's .404 in 2002, when he whiffed 188 times but walked 52, is the record).
Yes, a .400-plus BABIP for a free swinger is a rarity, and Johnson and Hernandez fall into that classification. Johnson's 0.25:1 walk-to-strikeout rate is 16th worst of 141 batting-title qualifiers, his swing (52.5 percent) and chase (33.7) rates 16th and 25th worst. Hernandez's 0.28:1 walk-to-K rate, meanwhile, was seventh worst of 151 qualifiers in 2002. Even more startling, Johnson's ground ball rate (46.4 percent) is higher than the major league average (44.5), and his well-hit average (.171) -- that's the percentage of his at-bats that resulted in hard contact -- is below average (.174), meaning he's almost entirely fueling his BABIP with a bloated line-drive rate of 23.0 percent. Frankly, it's amazing that he has hung in the National League's batting-title race for this long, and his fantasy owners surely should've enjoyed it this season, because he might well revert to his .290 career-average self in 2014.

Carter
The 'Who Needs Air Conditioning?' Award (for the most whiff-prone hitter in baseball): Chris Carter, 36.8 percent K rate. Again, that raw number might not grab you, but putting it into historical perspective will: It is not only the major leagues' highest K rate this season, and by more than 4 percent at that (Mike Napoli's 32.4 percent is second), it's actually the highest rate in the history of the game among batting title-eligibles … and it easily trumps Mark Reynolds' 3-year-old record of 35.4 percent by more than 1 percent.
Incredibly, no one seems to be giving Carter the Adam Dunn-in-2011 criticism -- Dunn's 35.7 percent K rate in a 496-plate appearance (non-batting-title-eligible) season is the only other year in proximity -- and it's probably because Carter has been much more productive, with 16 additional home runs (27-11) and 35 more RBIs (77-42) than Dunn had in that year. Carter's whiff-tastic ways, however, are catching up to him, as he hit 18 of his 27 homers during the season's first half, with his isolated power dropping from .240 before the All-Star break to .205 after it. Pitchers might be catching on to the fact he's a dead-red fastball hitter -- 32 of his 48 career home runs came off fastballs and his slugging percentage against them is .548 -- and if he can't make adjustments, he could be in for a long 2014.

Segura
The "Jekyll and Hyde" (for first-half excellence followed by a second-half swoon): Jean Segura. No qualified hitter -- meeting minimum qualifications in either half-season, that is -- has experienced as much of a drop-off in wOBA (weighted on-base percentage) from the first to the second half, with Segura's plummeting by 106 points (.367 before the break, .261 after it). His swoon was the subject of last week's Hit Parade, and in his defense, at least he has gone 4-for-5 in stolen base attempts in six games, alleviating some of the concern regarding one of his disappointing numbers of late. But with Segura's hitting the subject of major question since the All-Star break, might it be that fantasy owners should regard his future as a more volatile one annually, rather than recalling his hot start that seemed to destine him for annual top-five status? Segura does have a checkered injury history (and suffered a hamstring injury Wednesday), so he might be one of the more unpredictable players over the next decade, as likely to finish second as 18th at his position, even if he should enjoy a productive overall fantasy career.

Pence
The "Hyde and Jekyll" (the previous one in reverse; terrible first half followed by great second half): Hunter Pence. A tip of the cap to colleague Eric Karabell, who brought attention to Pence's torrid second half on a recent "Fantasy Focus" podcast. Pence's 94-point boost in wOBA between halves (.324 before the break, .418 after it) is the majors' best among batting title-eligible players, and he's actually fifth in both batting average (.345) and wOBA (.418) since the All-Star break, chipping in 11 home runs and seven stolen bases.

What's more, in the past 30 days, Pence has the second-most homers (10), is one of only two players with at least nine homers and three stolen bases (10 and 3; Coco Crisp has the same of each) and he paces the majors with 29 RBIs despite playing for a team that has averaged a mere 4.39 runs per game during that span (that's only slightly better than the major league average of 4.13). Pence might take unjust criticism for his awkward hitting mechanics, but he has been remarkably consistent throughout his career, hitting between 22 and 25 home runs in each of his past six seasons and driving in between 91 and 104 runs in each of his past four. Where he winds up as a free agent should be one of the many stories fantasy owners should track this winter.

HacheMan · Sep 19, 2013

[h=1]2014 values of two Hamiltons, Bits

[/h][h=5]Eric Karabell[/h]
Take out a $10 bill and celebrate because Wednesday night was one for the Hamiltons.Josh Hamilton, a polarizing figure in baseball with a monster contract and less-than-stellar numbers in his first year with the non-contending Los Angeles Angels, smacked a ninth-inning home run and later delivered the game-winning sacrifice fly as his team upended the first-place Oakland Athletics. Then there was unrelated speedster Billy Hamilton enjoying his first big league start with three hits, two runs scored and a pretty sweet four stolen bases, as his Cincinnati Reds solidified playoff standing with a 13-inning win over theHouston Astros. Which Hamilton would you rather have in 2014 fantasy drafts?

Despite the fact the older Hamilton owns an MVP award and 182 career home runs, the case certainly can be made for the 23-year-old with game-changing speed and seven career at-bats. I’d take the power hitter first, at this point probably in the third or fourth round, banking on the marginal second-half improvement and significant upside. After all, Josh Hamilton hit 43 home runs last season. He has hit many fewer fly balls in 2013 and the ones he has hit have not traveled as far, but it’s certainly feasible both he and teammateAlbert Pujols can bounce back to close to prior levels of production. Hamilton’s lack of plate discipline has been well documented, but he also has played through various injuries. I just find it hard to believe someone with his amazing talent will hit .245 with fewer home runs than Marlon Byrd consistently. Hamilton, hitting .317 in September and .279 since the All-Star break, will come at a discount, so you won’t need a second-round pick to secure him. It’s hardly a stretch to expect future 30-100 seasons.

Billy Hamilton’s issue could be opportunity and performance. After all, he has been with the Reds for nearly three weeks and this was his first start, and perhaps that happened only because the Reds were in an AL park and could use the designated hitter and bat him ninth. Hamilton handled center field in oddly shaped Minute Maid Park adeptly, so that doesn’t seem an issue, and current leadoff option/center fielderShin-Soo Choo is a free agent. But Hamilton has to play like he did Wednesday consistently. At the plate, he slashed a double the opposite way to left field off right-hander Brad Peacock and later scored; singled to left and stole second base; slapped an infield single to third base, stole second and later scored; walked and stole second; struck out looking and finally walked and stole second. That’s a monster fantasy night with four steals considering only 14 players have that many stolen bases in September. Hamilton has nine steals this month, in seven at-bats.

Alas, Hamilton hit .256 at Triple-A Louisville and seemed overwhelmed at the plate, with a low walk rate and high strikeout rate, and one start against Brad Peacock and middling relievers doesn’t change all that. On Wednesday, Hamilton played small ball. He took pitches, slapped hits in the infield and to the opposite field. If he could do that consistently we’d have a dominant fantasy asset, a potential first-round pick who could steal 100 bases, more than some entire fantasy teams. I mean, I’ve heard owning Vince Coleman for fantasy in the late-1980s was just a blast. But we’re not there yet. Own Hamilton the final week-plus for the steals, but playing time is not guaranteed. For Josh Hamilton, he doesn’t have the statistical impact in any one category the way Billy Hamilton does, but when he’s right he’s contributing all around. Regardless, each looks like a potential top-50 pick on the next draft day.

Box score bits (NL): Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen launched his 20th home run Wednesday, giving him his third consecutive 20-homer, 20-steal season. This remains a sure first-rounder in 2014 drafts, perhaps right after Miguel Cabrera/Mike Trout in some order, and likely the 2013 NL MVP. Incidentally, McCutchen is the sixth 20/20 player so far, joining Trout, Carlos Gonzalez, Hunter Pence, Carlos Gomez and Will Venable. Coco Crisp and Ian Desmond are each one stolen base away. … Milwaukee Brewers rookie Sean Halton smacked a grand slam Wednesday, his third home run in a week. Halton, 26, hasn’t distinguished himself as a minor league power hitter, but add him while he’s hot. … San Francisco Giants right-hander Matt Cain continues to show he’s better than people think. He dominated the New York Mets Wednesday, allowed an unearned run in 7 2/3 innings, and his ERA is 2.34 over the past two months. Don’t let him slip outside the top 15 starting pitchers next draft day. … It’s hard to trust Pirates right-hander Charlie Morton, but he permitted two hits and a run in eight innings Wednesday, with nine strikeouts. He’s had only one rough outing in two months.

Box score bits (AL): Those scared to use Seattle Mariners right-hander Hisashi Iwakumaat Detroit Wednesday missed out on eight shutout innings and a victory. Iwakuma is the No. 8 starting pitcher on the Player Rater for the season! He’s scheduled for one more outing, next Monday against Kansas City. Use him. Next year, he’ll likely be undervalued and slip outside the top 20 starting pitchers, though there’s really no great reason for it. … Remember when Mariners outfielder Franklin Gutierrez was valuable? He supplied a home run among three hits and stole a base Wednesday, perhaps his best game of the season. He also has 35 strikeouts and three walks. Leave him on free agency. … Texas Rangerslefty Derek Holland got back on track with six innings of two-run ball at Tampa. Holland’s first three September outings were quite poor, and he still hasn’t won in more than six weeks, but he should be used for his next outing against the Astros. … Baltimore Oriolesdesignated hitter Danny Valencia had two more hits Wednesday, and is hitting .405 in September. He’s hitting lefties and right-handers now, if you need a deep-league third base/corner option.

HacheMan · Sep 23, 2013

[h=1]Keeper strategy, top 10 for 2014[/h]By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

If the baseball season is a marathon, well, then we're down to the final 385 yards.
If you're still alive in your head-to-head league or in the thick of things in your rotisserie league, best of luck taking it home. You've worked hard; now it's time to grind it out this final week.

Regardless of your position, there are some things you can do now to make sure that this time next season you'll be vying for the title in both keeper and redraft leagues. To that end, here are some tips to best prepare for 2014.
For those in keeper leagues, it's never too early to begin working on your "freeze list" so you're ready for the offseason hot-stove trading. As such, I'll also offer the "dos" and "don'ts" for constructing a freeze list.
And finally, everyone loves lists. So to put a bow on the 2013 "Under the Microscope" season, I'll share my first-round picks for 2014, along with noting where I'd draft some other notable players.
[h=3]General preparation for 2014[/h]1. Archive your standings, rosters and draft: The good news is most commissioner services do this for you in a continuing league, but if not, copying and pasting into Excel should do the trick. Some ensuing tips are going to entail looking at this information, but there are inevitably instances that come up in your preparation that you either overlooked or weren't as pertinent at the time. Also, having the league archived will afford you the ability to go back and look at things in case your league is no longer accessible on the internet.
2. Review your squad, but don't get hung up on what went right or wrong: If you passed on Mike Trout to take Ryan Braun, don't sub in Trout's numbers for Braun's and lament the fact that you would have won if you picked Trout instead. There's no telling how the rest of the dominos would have fallen. Who would the Trout owner have taken? What if they passed on Braun and took Robinson Cano. Now the Cano owner would have made another choice. The entire complexion of the draft would be altered. On the other hand, take a look at how you managed your pitching staff. Were you successful at spot-starting perceived favorable matchups? If not, that's an area you can bone up on in the offseason, and perhaps reviewing using advanced metrics for evaluating pitching should be on the docket. How did you handle waiver and free-agent acquisitions? Did you hang on to a top waiver spot too long or hoard too much your free-agent acquisition budget (FAAB) allocation? Of course the circumstances will be different, but maybe being more active on the wire would have helped. Or maybe it was just the opposite and you rode streaks, only to release perceived cold players that went on to have solid seasons? With the caveat that each season is different, you may be able to learn from the tactical decisions you made.
3. Note what strategies were successful and which were not: Again, each season is different, so don't assume what happened this season will occur again next year, but you can glean some general information. Specifically, note if any of the top teams used a gimmick strategy that may be favored by your league rules. A gimmick strategy, for instance, is purposely punting a category or position in an effort to fortify others. Did the top teams punt saves or steals? Did they draft predominantly relievers? Was the focus on middle infield early? If there's some commonality between the top teams, consider altering your strategy to include that element. On the flip side, if every team that used a gimmick failed to compete, that tells you something as well. Perhaps playing it straight is best.
[h=3]Keeper league preparation[/h]1. Jot down a preliminary keeper list, but extend it by a couple of players: If you are allowed to keep eight, determine your top 10 freezes. Go through all the other teams to get an idea who might be available at your draft or auction. Now go back and reconsider your list based on the potential inventory not protected. Be sure to note the squads with fewer than the minimum number of viable choices for keepers. These are your prime trading targets; you could deal two keepers to get one option that is better than either you give up. It's a means of consolidating your keepers. The earlier you get to these teams, the better chance you have of getting something done.
2. You don't have to do it every day, but once a week or so, review MLB transactions:You can do this in a non-keeper league as well, but in a keeper or dynasty format, you don't want to be caught off-guard with a trade offer in which the primary options being considered were impacted by a recent MLB transaction. Perhaps a free-agent signing pushes a No. 2 hitter down in the order so they're no longer a potential keeper. Look for things like that.
3. Don't be afraid to keep a high-salary player: Too many people incorrectly assume the cheaper the keeper is, the better. But it's not all about the low cost of your keepers; it's also about what you can do with the available draft picks or auction budget. Sometimes the best means to combat keeper-league inflation is not to get caught up in it at your draft or auction, but rather build a solid foundation or reasonably priced keepers and use the draft or auction to fill in the missing pieces.
[h=3]Possible keepers[/h]One of the tricks in determining keepers is deciding if you can get the player back for the same cost or perhaps less. That is, in a vacuum, the player is at a keeper-worthy price, but there's a good chance he won't cost too much or be drafted too early. Below are four players who might not look so valuable now, but if you own any of them at a keeper price, I wouldn't let him go. Bite the bullet and keep him. You won't regret it.

Drew Smyly, RP, Detroit Tigers:Unless you play in a very deep or daily-transaction league, Smyly remained in a role that wasn't particularly helpful for roto owners. Next season, however, you can expect the youngster to either start or be a darkhorse to close. Either way, he'll be a very valuable arm, worthy of keeping. Coming into the season, Alex Cobb and Smyly profiled similarly. Cobb should finish the season with a sub-3.00 ERA as a starter and is a no-brainer keeper. That's a lot to expect from Smyly, but based on this season's excellent numbers as a setup man, an ERA in the low threes is certainly reasonable.
Corey Kluber, SP, Cleveland Indians: Don't worry about Kluber's hiccups since coming off the disabled list in early September. A season K/9 of 8.2 to go along with a BB/9 of 2.0 is exceptional.
Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oakland Athletics: Will Donaldson hit .300 next season (he's hitting .306 heading into Monday's game)? Well, most will point to his high batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and proclaim he won't, and they're probably going to be right. But Donaldson did walk more and whiff less, which speaks to his maturation as a hitter. He also has maintained a line drive rate that is better than league average both this year and last, so a high BABIP shouldn't be a shock. The safe bet is to expect an average below .300, but the drop shouldn't be as sharp as many will suggest.
Everth Cabrera, SS, San Diego Padres: Before Cabrera had his season cut short from the Biogenesis suspension, he was well on his way to a breakout campaign, swiping bases regularly and even displaying a bit of pop. With the caveat that we really don't know how much of this performance was enhanced, my sense is Cabrera's skills will carry over and he'll pick up where he left off. Let's put it this way: I'm not taking the chance that my league mates are scared off by the PED fallout.
[h=3]Early Top 10 for 2014[/h]1. Mike Trout: Using the formal definition of regression as approaching a mean, Trout's power, particularly his home run per fly ball ratio, regressed toward the league mean as compared to last season. On the other hand, his BABIP did not. Many, including yours truly, expected a drop in BABIP. However, Trout possesses the enviable combination of often hitting the ball hard and having outstanding speed -- he can reach on infield hits and also has very few infield popouts -- that he's able to maintain a high BABIP. The safe bet is still to assume some regression from his mid-.380's BABIP, but Trout has now demonstrated he is a legitimate .300 hitter, and that is a plausible baseline. Lost in all the talk of regression is that Trout improved his basal skills, cutting down on his strikeouts and taking more walks.
2. Miguel Cabrera: Truth be told, it was a surprise that the injury woes that have bothered Cabrera the past month-plus did not crop up last season. It can be argued the fact he was healthy all of 2012 masked that injury was always a possibility. Chances are, this will drop him out of the top spot next spring. It does for me.

3. Andrew McCutchen: Now is where it gets fun. Like with Trout, I had some doubts about McCutchen's ability to repeat the .327 average he posted in 2012. And like Trout, he improved his contact rate while drawing more walks. McCutchen also has an exceptional career line drive rate and outstanding speed, so his high BABIP is no fluke. His power might have dropped a bit from last season, but McCutchen is still one of only three players to hit at least 20 homers and steal at least 25 bases. The others are Trout and Carlos Gomez.

4. Paul Goldschmidt: I suspect most rankers will have Goldschmidt in the first round, but not many will put him this high. Coming into the 2013 campaign, my concern was whether Goldschmidt would give back the gains he made from the previous season with respect to contact rate since the improvement was so marked, falling from 30 percent in 2011 to 22 percent last year. My fears were unfounded as Goldschmidt's present strikeout rate is even lower (20 percent). Add in his 30-plus homers and steals in the teens and we have the second coming of Jeff Bagwell, who was a perennial top-five fantasy pick in his prime.
5. Robinson Cano: With the caveat that Cano's power numbers could fall if he no longer has the benefit of the short right field porch in Yankee Stadium 81 games a year, he's still a bastion of consistency, which means something in an age in which about 35 percent of first-round picks actually return first-round value.
6. Carlos Gonzalez: Sure, I know he's probably not going to play the full season, but I also know that if he were to stay healthy, he'd be my third pick off the board. To be honest, past the top five picks, I see risk in every player, so this pick says that I'd rather lock in 500 plate appearances from CarGo and cross my fingers he plays more than incur the risk from the players that follow.
7. Jacoby Ellsbury: Like Cano, we don't know where Ellsbury will call home next season, but as long as the stolen base is still legal, he'll be fine. In fact, his employer is less relevant than with Cano since the basepaths are 90 feet apart regardless of venue, and besides, who is going to give Scott Boras what it takes to sign him and not let him run? Like Gonzalez, Ellsbury can't be counted on for a full season, but even after missing some time this season, he's still going to return first-round value for the third time in his career.
8. Adam Jones: If this were a real draft and the previous seven were all taken, my thought process would go something like this:
"Darnit, I was hoping they'd take Chris Davis so I could take Ellsbury and not have to consider Davis. I like the power, but that strikeout total is scary. I don't want to mess up my first-round pick. I'd actually rather take Prince than Davis; last season had to be a fluke."
(Big sigh.)
"Oh, the heck with it. Forget about ADP. Adam Jones has averaged about .286 with 30 homers and 15 steals over the past three seasons. He might not have the upside of Trout or McCutchen, but he's pretty close, and he's consistent and reliable."
9. Chris Davis: As I just noted, this would be a rather reluctant pick, but the power potential is too great to pass up, especially in this era of reduced homers. The 30 percent strikeout rate does scare me, but on the other hand, Davis does not need to hit over 50 bombs and threaten .300 to be worthy of this pick. A .260-.270 season with 40-something homers and 110-plus RBIs would be just fine. To put it in perspective, that's Ryan Howardterritory when Howard was a first-rounder.

10. Adrian Beltre: With the possibility that I could be falling into the same trap I did withAramis Ramirez in the spring, but by season's end, Beltre will have played at least 152 games three of the past four years. He's going to be 35 next April and is a big guy, but he has been durable. I'll take the risk and pencil in another 30 homers and 100 RBIs and an average over .300.

Other notables

Ryan Braun: I'd start considering Braun in the third round unless the events of the offseason were such that I was completely comfortable he'd be accepted back into the clubhouse and could just play baseball.
Matt Kemp: Regardless of the size of the league, I wouldn't consider Kemp until the second round. In a 10-team league, he's in play beginning with pick No. 11. But in a 12-team league, for example, he wouldn't be my first pick at 11.
Prince Fielder: Fielder is the opposite of Kemp in that I'll sacrifice reliability for upside. His numbers may be down this season, but when a mid-.280 average with 25 homers is a down season, you've set the bar pretty high. I'd take him at 11 or 12 in a 12-team league, but I might pass on him at that spot in a 10-team league, opting for a second pick with a bit more upside.
Troy Tulowitzki/Evan Longoria: I'd pair either of them (as my second pick) with one of my top-5 options, if I'm lucky enough to get one. Otherwise, I'd pass.
Bryce Harper: I'm not denying his talent, but until Harper plays 150 games, I'm not going to pay the cost of what it would take to get him.
Yasiel Puig: Just being honest here, I have no clue yet what to expect from Puig next season. Brace yourself for another offseason of BABIP regression talk, but this time with Puig's .400-plus mark being the focus. The intriguing aspect of Puig's game is a reasonable 22 percent strikeout rate. That's strong enough that I might flip-flop and put him seventh instead of Ellsbury, or I could avoid him until the third round.

Clayton Kershaw: I'll probably rank Kershaw as a mid-second-rounder, but I wouldn't take him there. I won't chastise anyone who does; it's just not my style to take a starting pitcher there.

HacheMan · Sep 24, 2013

[h=1]Bits: Impact of Manny Machado injury

[/h][h=5]Eric Karabell[/h]
Fantasy owners have become used to seeing [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Baltimore Orioles[/FONT] third baseman [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Manny Machado[/FONT] play pretty much every inning of every game since his promotion to the major leagues last season, which is part of the reason he’ll be so missed. Machado gruesomely hurt his left leg in Monday’s 5-4 loss to the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Tampa Bay Rays[/FONT], and as of this writing the severity of the injury has not been determined. Regardless, fantasy owners should plan on finding another third baseman the rest of this week. The hope is that Machado, the No. 10 third baseman on the ESPN Player Rater and a strong keeper for 2014 and beyond -- the kid is 21, after all -- isn’t hurt so seriously that it affects next year or hampers his development.

Machado’s real-life value is among the best in the game thanks to his magical defensive prowess and durability, placing him among the top 10 in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For fantasy purposes, though, he’s barely among the top 100 overall players, so not quite a superstar yet. Name value and the lure of upside can often send a player’s value overboard, and that could happen with Machado. After all, while he’s universally loved, his numbers don’t warrant being a top-50 pick in most leagues in 2014. Assuming Machado’s season is over, he hit .283 with 14 home runs, 71 RBIs and six stolen bases. The expectation is that Machado will continue to develop more power, with some of his many doubles turning into home runs, and he’ll become a middle-of-the-order run producer.

Of course, while Machado’s future seems limitless, it would be nice if he’d take a few more walks and work on plate discipline, as he has 112 strikeouts versus 29 walks. Machado’s first-half value was predicated on his .310 batting average and 45 RBIs, and he hit 38 doubles before the All-Star break, putting him on pace to break the big league record. Then Machado hit one double in July to end that threat, but his struggles continued. Since the All-Star break, Machado has hit .236 with a lowly .273 on-base percentage. The doubles were starting to turn into home runs, but it was making Machado a lesser hitter overall. In addition, all six of Machado’s stolen bases came before the break. Ultimately he profiles as a 30-homer, 100-RBI guy with perhaps 10 stolen bases, but again, let’s hope he’s healthy enough to attain the lofty expectations. If you’re in an AL-only league and need the at-bats, look for [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Danny Valencia[/FONT] and [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Ryan Flaherty[/FONT] to play third base for Baltimore this week. Not quite the same, unfortunately.

Box score bits (AL): For those still playing for something, make sure your players are actually playing, and you’re using bench spots properly. Two other players shut down for the final week include Minnesota Twins catcher Joe Mauer (concussion) and New York Yankees lefty CC Sabathia (hamstring). Mauer finished with a .324 batting average, right at his career mark. That’s a real difference-maker at catcher, and worthy of a top-five selection at the position. Sabathia struggled to the worst season of his career with a 4.78 ERA and should be quite the discount choice in 2014. If you can get him outside the top 30 starting pitchers, definitely go for it. … Texas Rangers lefty Derek Holland got back on track Monday by shutting out the Houston Astros on six singles. He fanned nine. And people say the Astros aren’t valuable! Holland’s ERA for the past month entering Monday was 6.32. … Alex Rios hit for the cycle. The home run was his 18th, so that’s mildly disappointing, but he might finish 2013 in the top 10 on the Player Rater. No complaints there. … Chicago White Sox prospect Marcus Semien hit his first big league homer Monday. Semien, who has played second base, shortstop and third base in his brief time for Chicago, hit 19 home runs and stole 24 bases in the minors, and he walks a lot. He could be very interesting in 2014.

Box score bits (NL): Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez homered Monday for the second time in three games, and is hitting .344 this month. Ramirez will likely come at a discount in 2014 drafts, but the guy can still hit. … Brewers right-hander Marco Estradacontinued his excellent second half, shutting down the Atlanta Braves Monday. Estrada entered with a 2.62 ERA since the All-Star break and then allowed two hits over seven shutout innings. He’s a strong pickup later this week against the New York Mets. … Speaking of Mets, Lucas Duda homered again, his 15th! Duda has done this over roughly half a season of at-bats. Hmmm. Yes, if healthy and competent enough defensively to play regularly, Duda has 25-homer upside. … Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Roy Halladay left his Monday start after three batters with what was called shoulder fatigue. Don’t expect Halladay to start later this week, and his future is obviously in doubt. … Meanwhile, the Phillies were shut out by Miami Marlins right-hander Nate Eovaldi and two relievers. It was Eovaldi’s fourth win in 17 starts. Eventually the Marlins will build an offense and Eovaldi, one of the hardest throwers among starting pitchers, will be an intriguing fantasy option. It could happen next year. … Update on Cincinnati Reds speedster “Usain” Billy Hamilton: 13 stolen bases, 14 at-bats. Ridiculous. If all you need is steals, definitely add him.