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hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Early 2014 pitcher rankings[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Tristan H. Cockcroft[/FONT] | ESPN.com

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Matt Harvey[/FONT]'s is a tale, one thus far precisely 14 months in length, that instills in fantasy owners many compelling lessons.

t is one of blind faith, then of pleasant surprise, then of glory and greatness … but then one with an unexpectedly harsh ending.
(To be fair, said ending also possessed a hint of hope. You know, to set up a sequel.)
Harvey's tale, for fantasy purposes, illustrated that prospecting is a hit-or-miss business, and that sometimes the most unexpected pitcher can overwhelm us by meeting -- or even exceeding -- his projected ceiling, as he did in his first 36 big-league starts. From July 26, 2012, the date of his major league debut, through Aug. 24, 2013, his final outing this year, Harvey had 26 quality starts, a 2.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 261 strikeouts, ranking 15th, second, third and seventh in the majors (the ratios among qualifiers).
Harvey's tale taught that even the tiniest of samples -- 10 major league starts in 2012 -- can be enough evidence to support a pitcher's skills. He had a 2.73 ERA and 1.15 WHIP during his rookie year of 2012, and then improved both ratios in 2013. Harvey was the No. 42 starting pitcher selected on average during the preseason, and he awarded those faithful owners with the sixth-best year by a starter per our Player Rater.
But, and perhaps most importantly, Harvey's tale imparted that no pitcher is entirely safe from injury, and that even the most conservative approach to a youngster's workload should not be interpreted an ironclad guarantee of health. Two days after that Aug. 24 start, we learned that he had a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament -- the "Tommy John surgery" ligament -- in his right elbow, that his 2013 season was over and that his immediate future was clouded by the prospect of said surgery.


Harvey has decided to attempt rehabilitation rather than surgery, a decision that represented a double-edged sword for our purposes: Surgery would've cost him most of, if not all, of 2014. Rehabilitation runs the risk of being unsuccessful, in which case a future decision on surgery costs him approximately a year's recovery time from that date; or resulting in a somewhat less effective pitcher in the short term, including future risk of injury setbacks. Or, he could again defy the odds and make a flawless recovery, though even those who cite the Roy Halladay-in-2006 comparison might want to remember that, in 2007, Halladay's seasonal ERA rose by more than a half a run and WHIP rose by 0.14, and his first-half ERA was 4.66, meaning that even he wasn't exactly his normal self immediately following rehab.
Now try to rank the guy.
That's a task of today's column, but so is that of ranking every pitcher for 2014, as well as setting the scene for pitchers as a whole entering next season.
Harvey's is the compelling, introductory tale for a 2014 rankings column because it best encapsulates the state of pitching today: Unpredictability; many ups and downs and narrowing gaps between the two; meticulous workload management and analysis; and a truth that nothing on the pitching side is sacred, that even the most seemingly matchups-proof pitcher is no guarantee to remain that tomorrow. (Oh, and while we're at it, that wins are still a poor representation of ability, because Harvey had a major league-high six games in which he went at least seven innings allowing one or fewer runs that failed to result in a win for him.)
If you're of the mind that you can pick a few pitchers and leave them active week in and week out, taking a passive approach to in-season transactions, you're increasingly being left behind (and will only continue to each year). These days, pitching success largely hinges upon meticulous matchups management, constant refreshing of your resources and careful examination of underlying statistics.
When we say "you can wait on pitchers," we don't mean you can wait and take anyone late because the position is so deep; we mean that they're eminently replaceable and that you might fare just as well by loading up on bargain-bin bets rather than taking 2-3 staff "anchors." At the same time, the value of an ace remains great -- seven of the top 15 starting pitchers selected in the preseason remain ranked in that group on our Player Rater, and these aces still provide a massive volume advantage over the constantly dwindling 5.91 innings-per-start major league average -- meaning that there's every bit as much validity to investing in one. The key is formulating a detailed pitching strategy; it's thestrategy that is growing in importance.
In this final 2013 edition of "60 Feet 6 Inches," let's give you that head start on your 2014 draft preparations. Today's edition provides preliminary pitcher -- both starter and reliever -- rankings for next season and next season alone. Player value encompasses standard ESPN rules: Rotisserie 5x5 scoring and traditional rosters minus the second catcher.
In addition, however, let's make some early predictions on 2014 trends, including:
"Who's No. 1": Self-explanatory.
"Early buzz": A player most likely to spend the winter riding the hype machine, whether it's a top pick at his position or one primed to rise the ranks.
"Hot stove impact": Players whose projected 2014 draft-day price tag might be affected significantly by winter transactions.
"Unranked value picks": Also self-explanatory.
Now, let's get to the rankings!

[h=3]Who's No. 1[/h]
Well, this is there the importance of the "ace" comes into play, because there's a pitcher who, thanks to his year-over-year performance, has elevated himself to by far the head of his class this season: Los Angeles Dodgers leftyClayton Kershaw.
In a year that has exhibited many stunning pitching performances, it's Kershaw who tops the Player Rater, in what might be his third consecutive season leading the majors in earned run average. He would become the first pitcher to do that since Greg Maddux(1993-95), and only the third ever to do it (Lefty Grove also did it from 1929-31), and beginning with his breakout season of 2009, he has now finished 24th among starting pitchers and 89th overall (2009), 16th and 57th (2010), second and fifth (2011), third and ninth (2012) and first and fifth (2013) on our Player Rater. And if you do the math, you'll realize that, with top-10 Player Rater finishes overall in each of the past three seasons, Kershaw joins only Miguel Cabrera in that exclusive group.
Here's the best part: Kershaw's Dodgers have done a brilliant job of managing his workload over the years, as despite his 6.5 innings-per-start career average, he has averaged just 102 pitcher per outing. Let's use No. 1-starting-pitcher-off-the-board Justin Verlander as a comparison point:
• Since 2008, Kershaw has thrown 120 or more pitches in an outing five times. Verlander has done that 47 times.
• Kershaw has thrown 110 or more pitches 58 times; Verlander has 136 times.
• This will be the first season in Kershaw's career that Verlander's innings total won't exceed Kershaw's by at least 10 -- and that's excluding Verlander's postseason tallies -- and since Kershaw's major league debut on May 25, 2008, Verlander has logged 132 more regular-season innings than the left-hander.

Now flash back to March: How many of you were legitimately concerned about Verlander's career workload? The answer is a precious few -- and even those might be lying using the advantage of hindsight -- so there's hardly reason to fret the workload of the 26-year-old (come next March 19) Kershaw entering 2014. It might seem awkward to place a pitcher in the first round of any draft, but he makes a compelling case for inclusion and will be ranked among my top 10.
[h=3]Early buzz[/h]Every winter has its share of buzz-worthy fantasy names, players most likely to spend the offseason riding the hype machine en route to their soaring up the 2014 preseason rankings. That's not to say they aren't deserving; it's merely to say that you'll hear plenty of chatter about the following five pitchers between now and March:


Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers: If you're not on the Kershaw-as-the-No. 1-starter-not-to-mention-a-first-round-pick bandwagon, then surely you're in the Darvish camp. In two years in the States, Darvish has been everything that was predicted and more. He hasby far the majors' most strikeouts since his 2012 debut (490, 29 more than Max Scherzer); his seven games of at least seven innings pitched, one run or fewer allowed and 10 or more strikeouts is matched for the major league's lead by only Felix Hernandez; and he shaved more than one full run off his ERA while lowering his walk rate from 10.9 to 9.5 percent in his sophomore season. Darvish's sheer stuff can be reasonably hailed the best in the bigs, and if you're banking on one pitcher reaching the 300-strikeout threshold in 2014, he'd easily have the best odds.
Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins: The man most deserving for National League Rookie of the Year honors, Fernandez might have the widest range of rankings of any top-25 starting pitcher entering 2014. As the No. 5 starting pitcher on our Player Rater despite his innings being capped at 172 2/3 and his having never thrown more than 109 pitches in any of his 28 outings, Fernandez, likely to be afforded closer to 200 frames and potentially a greater volume of 100-pitch outings as a 21-year-old in 2014, makes a compelling case for top-five status at the position. After all, his 2.19 ERA was the lowest by any rookie since Dave Righetti (2.05, 1981 strike-shortened season) -- and that's rookies of any age, not necessarily just 20-year-olds -- and fifth-lowest since World War I, and his ERA+ (that's adjusted ERA accounting for ballpark and league) of 177 was eighth-best and his 9.75 strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio sixth-best by any rookie in history. The only legitimate knocks on Fernandez are A) his poor supporting cast might make any significant increase to his 12 wins difficult, and B) whether the league spends the winter detailing a scouting report against him, and neither is that legitimate an argument against his at least top-10 potential.

Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates: He might not command much more respect from the fantasy community as a whole than his ranking below indicates, but Liriano, despite missing the first 35 Pirates games of 2013, finished the No. 21 starting pitcher on our Player Rater and therefore might remain an enticing pick to many. After all, many veteran fantasy baseball owners probably remember his stretch of incredible dominance in 2006, when he managed 11 wins, a 1.96 ERA and 10.24 K-per-nine ratio during a 15-start stretch. The problem with Liriano -- and a winter's work of deeper analysis of his 2013 will help here -- is that his career track record represents considerably more concern than anyone might be willing to admit. Consider: He made just 16 starts in that 2006 season, so it wasn't nearly as complete a year as anyone remembers. Liriano's most productive full big-league campaign, that in 2010, too, ranked him just 32nd among starters and 110th overall on our Player Rater.


Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates: He's on here not necessarily because he will enjoy a healthy amount of winter buzz, but because he should absorb it. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 amateur draft, and Keith Law's No. 8 prospect overall entering 2013, Cole has enjoyed a rookie campaign that was even better than advertised. Though often criticized for getting too "cute" with his high-90s fastball and slider, Cole appears to have harnessed both pitches and escaped the mandatory early-career adjustment period of late, evidenced by four wins, five quality starts, a 1.69 ERA and 10.97 K-per-nine ratio in five September starts. What's more, his workload has been painstakingly maintained by the Pirates, who allowed him only two of 19 big-league starts of 100 or more pitches, never more than 102 in an individual outing, and granted him a reasonable 185 1/3 regular-season innings overall. If you're looking for a "Matt Harvey" of 2014 -- and by that I mean all the good parts of the Harvey story, as in you get him late and he potentially dominates -- Cole is your man.
Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers: I've been a Scherzer fan for more than a year, and if he wins himself a Cy Young as he presumably will this winter, then he's probably going to enter 2014 a lock of a top-five pick among starting pitchers. The problem, however, is that until we endure the balloting process -- and the inevitable back-and-forth between sabermetric- and scouting-based debaters -- we cannot be sure whether he's going to be unearthed a bit of a "lucky" type for his 20 wins, and therefore garner enough "hate" to potentially be pushed to the back end or out of the top 10 at his position. These have probably been said before: Teammate Anibal Sanchez (2.46) and Felix Hernandez (2.57) have lower Fielding Independent Pitching than Scherzer (2.46), and Chris Sale (7.3) and Hisashi Iwakuma (6.6) has more Wins Above Replacement than Scherzer (6.1). I think both sides of this argument have relevance; Scherzer might not be even a top-three AL starter, as my rankings below indicate, but he's also much more skilled than any wins-haters might be willing to give credit.
[h=3]Hot stove impact[/h]Ah , so as we wait for that possibly delicious winter 2014-15 free-agent dish -- that'd be Kershaw, eligible for free agency after next season -- we have a somewhat less rich, yet surprisingly appetizing, 2013-14 class to whet our appetites.
No, not a single pitcher ranked in my top 25 pitchers below is up for free agency this winter, and Kershaw himself is neither that likely to be traded in advance of his eligibility nor especially likely to even make it to free agency. There is no top-shelf arm on this winter's market, unlike the Zack Greinke and R.A. Dickey moves of the past offseason … but many of the names up for bid following the season could enjoy significant shifts in fantasy value.
Among them:
A.J. Burnett: His contract -- you know, that once-awful five-year, $82.5 million deal the New York Yankees dished him out following the 2008 season, only to watch him provide the Pittsburgh Pirates 3.7 more WAR in 2012-13 while technically on their payroll than for them in 2010-11 combined -- finally expires this winter, and the storyline here is whether Burnett intends to return in 2014 at all. Retirement is a possibility, and understandable, considering he'd begin next season aged 37. (Where does the time go?) But if Burnett returns, fantasy owners will be rooting it'll be to Pittsburgh, where he has been rejuvenated, especially as a strikeout artist, under the tutelage of perennially underrated pitching coach Ray Searage.

Edward Mujica: Even after losing his closer job during the past week, Mujica will go down as one of the best closer success stories of 2013, currently ranked 10th among pure relief pitchers on our Player Rater. Always a pitcher with pinpoint control -- he has a lifetime 1.40 walks-per-nine innings ratio -- Mujica rose seemingly from nowhere, even leaping ahead of his eventual setup man, Trevor Rosenthal, to save 37 games for the St. Louis Cardinals. The problem, however, is that Mujica's late-season swoon, not to mention Rosenthal's presence, cast doubt upon the veteran's 2014 role. He'll be a pricey free agent, and might be twice as likely to land elsewhere in a setup role than to return to St. Louis as closer. Mujica's own value stands to radically shift depending upon winter developments … but then so does Rosenthal's, as he could either be Mujica's replacement or moved into the rotation.


Fernando Rodney: Somehow the Tampa Bay Rays, and pitching coach Jim Hickey, converted this once-walk-prone reliever into a bona fide ninth-inning force, in two seasons for the Rays, Rodney tallying nearly as many saves (84) and a considerably lower ERA (1.93) than he had in his previous nine years for his two previous franchises (87 and 4.29 for the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels). Much of it was thanks to an adjustment to his positioning on the rubber, but there's as much evidence that the Rays can extract that extra bit of performance out of their pitchers as there is that Rodney has been fully remade wherever he winds up. Leaving Tampa Bay might be a bad thing for him, but it's almost inevitable; the Rays let their last big-name, free-agent closer go (Rafael Soriano after the 2010 season), and they might do it again this winter, freeing up the closer role for Joel Peralta, Jake McGee or Alex Torres.
Grant Balfour: Here is another example of a pitcher whose team vastly increased his value in the closer role, but has a history of going the cheaper route in the role when possible. Balfour has been yet another closer success story for Billy Beane's Oakland Athletics, having saved 62 games with a 2.59 ERA for them from 2012-13, but he might test the free-agent market and wind up closing -- or even setting up -- somewhere else. In that event, Ryan Cook or Sean Doolittle could figure into the team's closer plans, with Cook the slightly more likely bet.
Tim Lincecum: After four brilliant years, Lincecum finished off his final two heading into free agency suffering a marked decline in performance, much of that a product of diminished fastball velocity. His market value stands to suffer, and he's mainly an intriguing free agent-to-be because of the range of destinations and roles in which he could land for 2014. Remember that wild midseason rumor that the Detroit Tigers were interested in trading for him as their closer? Though it seemed absurd at the time, the Tigers indeed have an opening at the position this winter -- Joaquin Benoit is also eligible for free agency -- and one can't help but wonder whether Lincecum might be better off moving to the bullpen, where in shorter outings he can attempt to dial back up his fastball. I'll stop short of any Dennis Eckersley comparisons; Eckersley possessed far better control than Lincecum at the time he was converted to relief at the age of 32, in his 13th major league season. But might Lincecum, who can still strike out about a batter per inning even with diminished stuff, have the potential to be one of the better finishers in the game if given the chance? It'd sure be an interesting experiment …
Phil Hughes: Let's first be clear, Hughes might not even warrant selection in 10-team standard ESPN leagues in 2014 even if he signs with a team in an extreme pitchers' park, like the San Diego Padres. He has shown us enough to question in the skills department that his career might be a lost cause. That said, would anyone be completely shocked if he could revive it if freed from the bandbox that is new Yankee Stadium? The facts are staggering: Since the venue opened in 2009, Hughes, an extreme fly-ball pitcher, has served up 101 home runs. Seventy-one of them -- or more than 70 percent -- have come at Yankee Stadium, 36 of those to right field, where the ballpark plays best for power. Since that stadium opened, Hughes' road ERA is 3.99 and his WHIP 1.27, meaning he probably warrants at least a token look granted his first career opportunity at "fresh surroundings."
Other free agents of note: Matt Garza, Hiroki Kuroda, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Jorge De La Rosa, Roy Halladay, Brian Wilson, Dan Haren.
Risky option years: Among the class of prospective free agents that would first need their teams to -- or in some cases they themselves could -- decline options are James Shields,Joe Nathan, Jon Lester, Casey Janssen, Ubaldo Jimenez and Jose Veras.
[h=3]Unranked value picks[/h]
Extending the rankings more than 150 pitchers deep greatly reduces the amount of "sleeper" candidates, so among those ranked no higher than 75th, here are a few whom I'll be closely examining all winter (and spring) as possible bargains:


Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals: He's a name you now know, following his near-no-hitter -- he went 8 2/3 innings before giving up a dinkety-dunk infield single -- but even before that Wacha had put himself firmly in the Cardinals' 2014 plans and on many fantasy owners' sleeper lists thanks to a handful of impressive spot starts. Wacha's combination of mid-90s fastball and brilliant changeup makes him complete enough to succeed at this level, the primary obstacle he'll face next season an innings cap; he might not be afforded more than 175 or so after totaling just 149 2/3 this year. He might, in fact, be exactly the candidate who compels the Cardinals to keep Trevor Rosenthal, the man who closed Wacha's Tuesday masterpiece, in the bullpen.
Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Philadelphia Phillies: To clarify, he is listed as "Miguel Gonzalez" in the chart below, but this is the Phillies, and not the Baltimore Orioles, right-hander. We'll enter 2014 spring training without a hint of what Gonzalez can do in the States; the Phillies did not enter him in any professional leagues this season after signing him to a three-year, $12-million contract (plus a vesting option for 2017) in August. Some of that might be concern about the health of his elbow -- his original deal was reportedly to be for four years and $48 million -- but all it'll do is increase the likelihood he's largely ignored in most fantasy drafts. Gonzalez has been described by scouts as a mid-rotation starter who should advance quickly, and by all rights he'll be given a chance to make the Phillies out of spring training. He has arguably as much upside for 2014 as anyone ranked outside the top 100.
Bruce Rondon, Detroit Tigers: Though I wasn't on the Rondon bandwagon in the slightest a year ago at this time, I'm happy to hop aboard this winter … should the Tigers enter spring training with a similarly wide-open bullpen. Though such a change of heart might seem odd -- you might not think 30 big-league appearances would sway an opinion much -- Rondon made some significant advances in terms of his control, and any experience at this level, really, is a plus. What was a 11.9 percent walk rate by the right-hander in the minors in 2012 dropped to 10.0 percent between the minors and majors this season, and he only furthered his development by lowering that to 8.9 percent in his 20 big-league appearances since the All-Star break. Rondon's stuff is indeed closer-worthy, and it might be enough to earn him a look next year.
Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks: Though he'll neither make any appearances for the Diamondbacks this season nor pitch in the Arizona Fall League this winter, Bradley is a viable candidate to make the 2014 rotation out of camp. His presence was a major contributing factor in the team deciding to trade Ian Kennedy at the deadline; Bradley finished the season with a 2.04 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 23.5 percent strikeout rate in 21 starts in Double-A ball and is regarded as nearly big-league ready. He'll be one of 2014's most attractive Rookie of the Year candidates.
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians: Would the Indians dare trade closer Chris Perez? They should at least try, considering Perez earned $7.3 million this season and is eligible for arbitration again during the winter, meaning he'll probably rank among the highest-paid relievers in baseball entering 2014. Perez hasn't been especially effective, after all, with 13 blown saves (out of 113 chances), a 3.53 ERA and 1.23 WHIP the past three seasons combined. Allen, by comparison, has been the more effective pitcher this year, with a 2.50 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, and is the better strikeout artist of the two. If Perez goes, Allen might not be outright handed the job, but he possesses the ability to easily be the victor of any spring battle for the position.

[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS FOR 2014[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers for 2014 are ranked for their expected performance during the 2014 season and the 2014 season alone. "Pos Rnk" is the player's rank among either starting or relief pitchers. " '13 PR" is the player's rank among all pitchers on the 2013 Player Rater (through Sept. 24). * indicates that the player is eligible for free agency after the 2013 season. + indicates that the player has a contract option for 2014.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Rnk</center>Player, Team<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Pos
Rnk</center>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">'13
PR</center>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;"> </center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Rnk</center>Player, Team<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Pos
Rnk</center>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">'13
PR</center>
1Clayton Kershaw, LADSP11 76Chris Archer, TBSP5481
2Yu Darvish, TexSP26 77Justin Masterson, CleSP5540
3Adam Wainwright, StLSP34 78Ernesto Frieri, LAARP2361
4Felix Hernandez, SeaSP420 79Ricky Nolasco, LAD *SP5658
5Stephen Strasburg, WshSP527 80Tony Cingrani, CinSP5782
6David Price, TBSP675 81Casey Janssen, Tor +RP2443
7Cliff Lee, PhiSP79 82John Lackey, BosSP5864
8Max Scherzer, DetSP82 83Edward Mujica, StL *RP2531
9Madison Bumgarner, SFSP910 84Doug Fister, DetSP5986
10Jose Fernandez, MiaSP107 85Bartolo Colon, OakSP6023
11Cole Hamels, PhiSP1159 86Danny Farquhar, SeaRP26177
12Zack Greinke, LADSP1222 87Ryan Cook, OakRP27161
13Chris Sale, CWSSP1313 88Ivan Nova, NYYSP61103
14Craig Kimbrel, AtlRP13 89Jonathon Niese, NYMSP62229
15Justin Verlander, DetSP1470 90Ubaldo Jimenez, Cle +SP6380
16Homer Bailey, CinSP1526 91Michael Wacha, StLSP64222
17Aroldis Chapman, CinRP219 92Travis Wood, ChCSP6538
18Anibal Sanchez, DetSP1618 93Sonny Gray, OakSP66173
19Gio Gonzalez, WshSP1768 94Joaquin Benoit, DetRP2849
20Mike Minor, AtlSP1821 95Taijuan Walker, SeaSP67343
21Kenley Jansen, LADRP317 96Yovani Gallardo, MilSP68154
22Jordan Zimmermann, WshSP1914 97Dan Straily, OakSP69119
23Mat Latos, CinSP2033 98Pedro Strop, ChCRP29270
24Julio Teheran, AtlSP2130 99Marco Estrada, MilSP70120
25Shelby Miller, StLSP2235 100Wade Miley, AriSP71118
26Matt Moore, TBSP2373 101Miguel Gonzalez, PhiSP72--
27Matt Cain, SFSP2492 102Tim Lincecum, SF *SP73126
28James Shields, KC +SP2545 103Scott Kazmir, CleSP74138
29A.J. Burnett, Pit *SP2666 104Jake McGee, TBRP30190
30Greg Holland, KCRP45 105Corey Kluber, CleSP7594
31Matt Harvey, NYMSP278 106Brandon Beachy, AtlSP76299
32Hisashi Iwakuma, SeaSP2811 107Jim Henderson, MilRP3163
33Gerrit Cole, PitSP2999 108Danny Salazar, CleSP77228
34Hyun-Jin Ryu, LADSP3042 109Alex Wood, AtlSP78218
35Addison Reed, CWSRP529 110Bruce Rondon, DetRP32350
36Kris Medlen, AtlSP3157 111Felix Doubront, BosSP79153
37Alex Cobb, TBSP3269 112Archie Bradley, AriSP80--
38Glen Perkins, MinRP624 113J.J. Putz, AriRP33212
39R.A. Dickey, TorSP3389 114Mike Leake, CinSP8160
40Rafael Soriano, WshRP744 115Randall Delgado, AriSP82185
41Koji Uehara, BosRP812 116A.J. Griffin, OakSP8339
42Clay Buchholz, BosSP3434 117Jason Motte, StLRP34--
43Joe Nathan, Tex +RP915 118Josh Johnson, Tor *SP84648
44Francisco Liriano, PitSP3528 119Rick Porcello, DetSP85116
45Patrick Corbin, AriSP3625 120Martin Perez, TexSP86179
46Jason Grilli, PitRP1071 121Alexi Ogando, TexSP87115
47Jarrod Parker, OakSP3779 122Mark Melancon, PitRP3556
48Rex Brothers, ColRP1193 123Dillon Gee, NYMSP8883
49Zack Wheeler, NYMSP38180 124Erasmo Ramirez, SeaSP89300
50Trevor Rosenthal, StLRP12130 125Jeremy Hellickson, TBSP90217
51Matt Garza, Tex *SP3995 126Jorge De La Rosa, Col *SP9196
52Lance Lynn, StLSP4090 127James Paxton, SeaSP92289
53Johnny Cueto, CinSP41155 128Tommy Milone, OakSP93114
54Jered Weaver, LAASP4278 129Roy Halladay, Phi *SP94589
55Jonathan Papelbon, PhiRP1352 130Brian Wilson, LAD *RP36286
56Sergio Romo, SFRP1436 131Tommy Hunter, BalRP3784
57Hiroki Kuroda, NYY *SP4346 132Edwin Jackson, ChCSP95263
58Fernando Rodney, TB *RP1553 133Trevor Cahill, AriSP96219
59Grant Balfour, Oak *RP1651 134Wily Peralta, MilSP97205
60Jeff Samardzija, ChCSP44136 135Joel Peralta, TBRP38175
61CC Sabathia, NYYSP45152 136Brett Anderson, OakSP98570
62Jim Johnson, BalRP1732 137Tanner Scheppers, TexRP39105
63Huston Street, SDRP1848 138Brad Ziegler, AriRP4088
64Jake Peavy, BosSP4687 139Kyle Lohse, MilSP9985
65Andrew Cashner, SDSP4755 140Phil Hughes, NYY *SP100402
66Jhoulys Chacin, ColSP4862 141Tyler Clippard, WshRP4191
67David Robertson, NYYRP19109 142Jose Veras, Det +RP42101
68Ervin Santana, KC *SP4941 143Dan Haren, Wsh *SP101164
69Bobby Parnell, NYMRP2074 144Jacob Turner, MiaSP102296
70Jon Lester, Bos +SP5065 145Ian Kennedy, SDSP103311
71Chris Perez, CleRP2197 146Drew Smyly, DetRP43100
72C.J. Wilson, LAASP5150 147Tanner Roark, WshSP104124
73Chris Tillman, BalSP5247 148Cody Allen, CleRP44131
74Derek Holland, TexSP5372 149Brandon McCarthy, AriSP105320
75Steve Cishek, MiaRP2237 150Bud Norris, BalSP106203

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hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Early 2014 pitcher rankings[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Tristan H. Cockcroft[/FONT] | ESPN.com

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Matt Harvey[/FONT]'s is a tale, one thus far precisely 14 months in length, that instills in fantasy owners many compelling lessons.

t is one of blind faith, then of pleasant surprise, then of glory and greatness … but then one with an unexpectedly harsh ending.
(To be fair, said ending also possessed a hint of hope. You know, to set up a sequel.)
Harvey's tale, for fantasy purposes, illustrated that prospecting is a hit-or-miss business, and that sometimes the most unexpected pitcher can overwhelm us by meeting -- or even exceeding -- his projected ceiling, as he did in his first 36 big-league starts. From July 26, 2012, the date of his major league debut, through Aug. 24, 2013, his final outing this year, Harvey had 26 quality starts, a 2.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 261 strikeouts, ranking 15th, second, third and seventh in the majors (the ratios among qualifiers).
Harvey's tale taught that even the tiniest of samples -- 10 major league starts in 2012 -- can be enough evidence to support a pitcher's skills. He had a 2.73 ERA and 1.15 WHIP during his rookie year of 2012, and then improved both ratios in 2013. Harvey was the No. 42 starting pitcher selected on average during the preseason, and he awarded those faithful owners with the sixth-best year by a starter per our Player Rater.
But, and perhaps most importantly, Harvey's tale imparted that no pitcher is entirely safe from injury, and that even the most conservative approach to a youngster's workload should not be interpreted an ironclad guarantee of health. Two days after that Aug. 24 start, we learned that he had a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament -- the "Tommy John surgery" ligament -- in his right elbow, that his 2013 season was over and that his immediate future was clouded by the prospect of said surgery.


Harvey has decided to attempt rehabilitation rather than surgery, a decision that represented a double-edged sword for our purposes: Surgery would've cost him most of, if not all, of 2014. Rehabilitation runs the risk of being unsuccessful, in which case a future decision on surgery costs him approximately a year's recovery time from that date; or resulting in a somewhat less effective pitcher in the short term, including future risk of injury setbacks. Or, he could again defy the odds and make a flawless recovery, though even those who cite the Roy Halladay-in-2006 comparison might want to remember that, in 2007, Halladay's seasonal ERA rose by more than a half a run and WHIP rose by 0.14, and his first-half ERA was 4.66, meaning that even he wasn't exactly his normal self immediately following rehab.
Now try to rank the guy.
That's a task of today's column, but so is that of ranking every pitcher for 2014, as well as setting the scene for pitchers as a whole entering next season.
Harvey's is the compelling, introductory tale for a 2014 rankings column because it best encapsulates the state of pitching today: Unpredictability; many ups and downs and narrowing gaps between the two; meticulous workload management and analysis; and a truth that nothing on the pitching side is sacred, that even the most seemingly matchups-proof pitcher is no guarantee to remain that tomorrow. (Oh, and while we're at it, that wins are still a poor representation of ability, because Harvey had a major league-high six games in which he went at least seven innings allowing one or fewer runs that failed to result in a win for him.)
If you're of the mind that you can pick a few pitchers and leave them active week in and week out, taking a passive approach to in-season transactions, you're increasingly being left behind (and will only continue to each year). These days, pitching success largely hinges upon meticulous matchups management, constant refreshing of your resources and careful examination of underlying statistics.
When we say "you can wait on pitchers," we don't mean you can wait and take anyone late because the position is so deep; we mean that they're eminently replaceable and that you might fare just as well by loading up on bargain-bin bets rather than taking 2-3 staff "anchors." At the same time, the value of an ace remains great -- seven of the top 15 starting pitchers selected in the preseason remain ranked in that group on our Player Rater, and these aces still provide a massive volume advantage over the constantly dwindling 5.91 innings-per-start major league average -- meaning that there's every bit as much validity to investing in one. The key is formulating a detailed pitching strategy; it's thestrategy that is growing in importance.
In this final 2013 edition of "60 Feet 6 Inches," let's give you that head start on your 2014 draft preparations. Today's edition provides preliminary pitcher -- both starter and reliever -- rankings for next season and next season alone. Player value encompasses standard ESPN rules: Rotisserie 5x5 scoring and traditional rosters minus the second catcher.
In addition, however, let's make some early predictions on 2014 trends, including:
"Who's No. 1": Self-explanatory.
"Early buzz": A player most likely to spend the winter riding the hype machine, whether it's a top pick at his position or one primed to rise the ranks.
"Hot stove impact": Players whose projected 2014 draft-day price tag might be affected significantly by winter transactions.
"Unranked value picks": Also self-explanatory.
Now, let's get to the rankings!

[h=3]Who's No. 1[/h]
Well, this is there the importance of the "ace" comes into play, because there's a pitcher who, thanks to his year-over-year performance, has elevated himself to by far the head of his class this season: Los Angeles Dodgers leftyClayton Kershaw.
In a year that has exhibited many stunning pitching performances, it's Kershaw who tops the Player Rater, in what might be his third consecutive season leading the majors in earned run average. He would become the first pitcher to do that since Greg Maddux(1993-95), and only the third ever to do it (Lefty Grove also did it from 1929-31), and beginning with his breakout season of 2009, he has now finished 24th among starting pitchers and 89th overall (2009), 16th and 57th (2010), second and fifth (2011), third and ninth (2012) and first and fifth (2013) on our Player Rater. And if you do the math, you'll realize that, with top-10 Player Rater finishes overall in each of the past three seasons, Kershaw joins only Miguel Cabrera in that exclusive group.
Here's the best part: Kershaw's Dodgers have done a brilliant job of managing his workload over the years, as despite his 6.5 innings-per-start career average, he has averaged just 102 pitcher per outing. Let's use No. 1-starting-pitcher-off-the-board Justin Verlander as a comparison point:
• Since 2008, Kershaw has thrown 120 or more pitches in an outing five times. Verlander has done that 47 times.
• Kershaw has thrown 110 or more pitches 58 times; Verlander has 136 times.
• This will be the first season in Kershaw's career that Verlander's innings total won't exceed Kershaw's by at least 10 -- and that's excluding Verlander's postseason tallies -- and since Kershaw's major league debut on May 25, 2008, Verlander has logged 132 more regular-season innings than the left-hander.

Now flash back to March: How many of you were legitimately concerned about Verlander's career workload? The answer is a precious few -- and even those might be lying using the advantage of hindsight -- so there's hardly reason to fret the workload of the 26-year-old (come next March 19) Kershaw entering 2014. It might seem awkward to place a pitcher in the first round of any draft, but he makes a compelling case for inclusion and will be ranked among my top 10.
[h=3]Early buzz[/h]Every winter has its share of buzz-worthy fantasy names, players most likely to spend the offseason riding the hype machine en route to their soaring up the 2014 preseason rankings. That's not to say they aren't deserving; it's merely to say that you'll hear plenty of chatter about the following five pitchers between now and March:


Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers: If you're not on the Kershaw-as-the-No. 1-starter-not-to-mention-a-first-round-pick bandwagon, then surely you're in the Darvish camp. In two years in the States, Darvish has been everything that was predicted and more. He hasby far the majors' most strikeouts since his 2012 debut (490, 29 more than Max Scherzer); his seven games of at least seven innings pitched, one run or fewer allowed and 10 or more strikeouts is matched for the major league's lead by only Felix Hernandez; and he shaved more than one full run off his ERA while lowering his walk rate from 10.9 to 9.5 percent in his sophomore season. Darvish's sheer stuff can be reasonably hailed the best in the bigs, and if you're banking on one pitcher reaching the 300-strikeout threshold in 2014, he'd easily have the best odds.
Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins: The man most deserving for National League Rookie of the Year honors, Fernandez might have the widest range of rankings of any top-25 starting pitcher entering 2014. As the No. 5 starting pitcher on our Player Rater despite his innings being capped at 172 2/3 and his having never thrown more than 109 pitches in any of his 28 outings, Fernandez, likely to be afforded closer to 200 frames and potentially a greater volume of 100-pitch outings as a 21-year-old in 2014, makes a compelling case for top-five status at the position. After all, his 2.19 ERA was the lowest by any rookie since Dave Righetti (2.05, 1981 strike-shortened season) -- and that's rookies of any age, not necessarily just 20-year-olds -- and fifth-lowest since World War I, and his ERA+ (that's adjusted ERA accounting for ballpark and league) of 177 was eighth-best and his 9.75 strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio sixth-best by any rookie in history. The only legitimate knocks on Fernandez are A) his poor supporting cast might make any significant increase to his 12 wins difficult, and B) whether the league spends the winter detailing a scouting report against him, and neither is that legitimate an argument against his at least top-10 potential.

Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates: He might not command much more respect from the fantasy community as a whole than his ranking below indicates, but Liriano, despite missing the first 35 Pirates games of 2013, finished the No. 21 starting pitcher on our Player Rater and therefore might remain an enticing pick to many. After all, many veteran fantasy baseball owners probably remember his stretch of incredible dominance in 2006, when he managed 11 wins, a 1.96 ERA and 10.24 K-per-nine ratio during a 15-start stretch. The problem with Liriano -- and a winter's work of deeper analysis of his 2013 will help here -- is that his career track record represents considerably more concern than anyone might be willing to admit. Consider: He made just 16 starts in that 2006 season, so it wasn't nearly as complete a year as anyone remembers. Liriano's most productive full big-league campaign, that in 2010, too, ranked him just 32nd among starters and 110th overall on our Player Rater.


Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates: He's on here not necessarily because he will enjoy a healthy amount of winter buzz, but because he should absorb it. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 amateur draft, and Keith Law's No. 8 prospect overall entering 2013, Cole has enjoyed a rookie campaign that was even better than advertised. Though often criticized for getting too "cute" with his high-90s fastball and slider, Cole appears to have harnessed both pitches and escaped the mandatory early-career adjustment period of late, evidenced by four wins, five quality starts, a 1.69 ERA and 10.97 K-per-nine ratio in five September starts. What's more, his workload has been painstakingly maintained by the Pirates, who allowed him only two of 19 big-league starts of 100 or more pitches, never more than 102 in an individual outing, and granted him a reasonable 185 1/3 regular-season innings overall. If you're looking for a "Matt Harvey" of 2014 -- and by that I mean all the good parts of the Harvey story, as in you get him late and he potentially dominates -- Cole is your man.
Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers: I've been a Scherzer fan for more than a year, and if he wins himself a Cy Young as he presumably will this winter, then he's probably going to enter 2014 a lock of a top-five pick among starting pitchers. The problem, however, is that until we endure the balloting process -- and the inevitable back-and-forth between sabermetric- and scouting-based debaters -- we cannot be sure whether he's going to be unearthed a bit of a "lucky" type for his 20 wins, and therefore garner enough "hate" to potentially be pushed to the back end or out of the top 10 at his position. These have probably been said before: Teammate Anibal Sanchez (2.46) and Felix Hernandez (2.57) have lower Fielding Independent Pitching than Scherzer (2.46), and Chris Sale (7.3) and Hisashi Iwakuma (6.6) has more Wins Above Replacement than Scherzer (6.1). I think both sides of this argument have relevance; Scherzer might not be even a top-three AL starter, as my rankings below indicate, but he's also much more skilled than any wins-haters might be willing to give credit.
[h=3]Hot stove impact[/h]Ah , so as we wait for that possibly delicious winter 2014-15 free-agent dish -- that'd be Kershaw, eligible for free agency after next season -- we have a somewhat less rich, yet surprisingly appetizing, 2013-14 class to whet our appetites.
No, not a single pitcher ranked in my top 25 pitchers below is up for free agency this winter, and Kershaw himself is neither that likely to be traded in advance of his eligibility nor especially likely to even make it to free agency. There is no top-shelf arm on this winter's market, unlike the Zack Greinke and R.A. Dickey moves of the past offseason … but many of the names up for bid following the season could enjoy significant shifts in fantasy value.
Among them:
A.J. Burnett: His contract -- you know, that once-awful five-year, $82.5 million deal the New York Yankees dished him out following the 2008 season, only to watch him provide the Pittsburgh Pirates 3.7 more WAR in 2012-13 while technically on their payroll than for them in 2010-11 combined -- finally expires this winter, and the storyline here is whether Burnett intends to return in 2014 at all. Retirement is a possibility, and understandable, considering he'd begin next season aged 37. (Where does the time go?) But if Burnett returns, fantasy owners will be rooting it'll be to Pittsburgh, where he has been rejuvenated, especially as a strikeout artist, under the tutelage of perennially underrated pitching coach Ray Searage.

Edward Mujica: Even after losing his closer job during the past week, Mujica will go down as one of the best closer success stories of 2013, currently ranked 10th among pure relief pitchers on our Player Rater. Always a pitcher with pinpoint control -- he has a lifetime 1.40 walks-per-nine innings ratio -- Mujica rose seemingly from nowhere, even leaping ahead of his eventual setup man, Trevor Rosenthal, to save 37 games for the St. Louis Cardinals. The problem, however, is that Mujica's late-season swoon, not to mention Rosenthal's presence, cast doubt upon the veteran's 2014 role. He'll be a pricey free agent, and might be twice as likely to land elsewhere in a setup role than to return to St. Louis as closer. Mujica's own value stands to radically shift depending upon winter developments … but then so does Rosenthal's, as he could either be Mujica's replacement or moved into the rotation.


Fernando Rodney: Somehow the Tampa Bay Rays, and pitching coach Jim Hickey, converted this once-walk-prone reliever into a bona fide ninth-inning force, in two seasons for the Rays, Rodney tallying nearly as many saves (84) and a considerably lower ERA (1.93) than he had in his previous nine years for his two previous franchises (87 and 4.29 for the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels). Much of it was thanks to an adjustment to his positioning on the rubber, but there's as much evidence that the Rays can extract that extra bit of performance out of their pitchers as there is that Rodney has been fully remade wherever he winds up. Leaving Tampa Bay might be a bad thing for him, but it's almost inevitable; the Rays let their last big-name, free-agent closer go (Rafael Soriano after the 2010 season), and they might do it again this winter, freeing up the closer role for Joel Peralta, Jake McGee or Alex Torres.
Grant Balfour: Here is another example of a pitcher whose team vastly increased his value in the closer role, but has a history of going the cheaper route in the role when possible. Balfour has been yet another closer success story for Billy Beane's Oakland Athletics, having saved 62 games with a 2.59 ERA for them from 2012-13, but he might test the free-agent market and wind up closing -- or even setting up -- somewhere else. In that event, Ryan Cook or Sean Doolittle could figure into the team's closer plans, with Cook the slightly more likely bet.
Tim Lincecum: After four brilliant years, Lincecum finished off his final two heading into free agency suffering a marked decline in performance, much of that a product of diminished fastball velocity. His market value stands to suffer, and he's mainly an intriguing free agent-to-be because of the range of destinations and roles in which he could land for 2014. Remember that wild midseason rumor that the Detroit Tigers were interested in trading for him as their closer? Though it seemed absurd at the time, the Tigers indeed have an opening at the position this winter -- Joaquin Benoit is also eligible for free agency -- and one can't help but wonder whether Lincecum might be better off moving to the bullpen, where in shorter outings he can attempt to dial back up his fastball. I'll stop short of any Dennis Eckersley comparisons; Eckersley possessed far better control than Lincecum at the time he was converted to relief at the age of 32, in his 13th major league season. But might Lincecum, who can still strike out about a batter per inning even with diminished stuff, have the potential to be one of the better finishers in the game if given the chance? It'd sure be an interesting experiment …
Phil Hughes: Let's first be clear, Hughes might not even warrant selection in 10-team standard ESPN leagues in 2014 even if he signs with a team in an extreme pitchers' park, like the San Diego Padres. He has shown us enough to question in the skills department that his career might be a lost cause. That said, would anyone be completely shocked if he could revive it if freed from the bandbox that is new Yankee Stadium? The facts are staggering: Since the venue opened in 2009, Hughes, an extreme fly-ball pitcher, has served up 101 home runs. Seventy-one of them -- or more than 70 percent -- have come at Yankee Stadium, 36 of those to right field, where the ballpark plays best for power. Since that stadium opened, Hughes' road ERA is 3.99 and his WHIP 1.27, meaning he probably warrants at least a token look granted his first career opportunity at "fresh surroundings."
Other free agents of note: Matt Garza, Hiroki Kuroda, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Jorge De La Rosa, Roy Halladay, Brian Wilson, Dan Haren.
Risky option years: Among the class of prospective free agents that would first need their teams to -- or in some cases they themselves could -- decline options are James Shields,Joe Nathan, Jon Lester, Casey Janssen, Ubaldo Jimenez and Jose Veras.
[h=3]Unranked value picks[/h]
Extending the rankings more than 150 pitchers deep greatly reduces the amount of "sleeper" candidates, so among those ranked no higher than 75th, here are a few whom I'll be closely examining all winter (and spring) as possible bargains:


Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals: He's a name you now know, following his near-no-hitter -- he went 8 2/3 innings before giving up a dinkety-dunk infield single -- but even before that Wacha had put himself firmly in the Cardinals' 2014 plans and on many fantasy owners' sleeper lists thanks to a handful of impressive spot starts. Wacha's combination of mid-90s fastball and brilliant changeup makes him complete enough to succeed at this level, the primary obstacle he'll face next season an innings cap; he might not be afforded more than 175 or so after totaling just 149 2/3 this year. He might, in fact, be exactly the candidate who compels the Cardinals to keep Trevor Rosenthal, the man who closed Wacha's Tuesday masterpiece, in the bullpen.
Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Philadelphia Phillies: To clarify, he is listed as "Miguel Gonzalez" in the chart below, but this is the Phillies, and not the Baltimore Orioles, right-hander. We'll enter 2014 spring training without a hint of what Gonzalez can do in the States; the Phillies did not enter him in any professional leagues this season after signing him to a three-year, $12-million contract (plus a vesting option for 2017) in August. Some of that might be concern about the health of his elbow -- his original deal was reportedly to be for four years and $48 million -- but all it'll do is increase the likelihood he's largely ignored in most fantasy drafts. Gonzalez has been described by scouts as a mid-rotation starter who should advance quickly, and by all rights he'll be given a chance to make the Phillies out of spring training. He has arguably as much upside for 2014 as anyone ranked outside the top 100.
Bruce Rondon, Detroit Tigers: Though I wasn't on the Rondon bandwagon in the slightest a year ago at this time, I'm happy to hop aboard this winter … should the Tigers enter spring training with a similarly wide-open bullpen. Though such a change of heart might seem odd -- you might not think 30 big-league appearances would sway an opinion much -- Rondon made some significant advances in terms of his control, and any experience at this level, really, is a plus. What was a 11.9 percent walk rate by the right-hander in the minors in 2012 dropped to 10.0 percent between the minors and majors this season, and he only furthered his development by lowering that to 8.9 percent in his 20 big-league appearances since the All-Star break. Rondon's stuff is indeed closer-worthy, and it might be enough to earn him a look next year.
Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks: Though he'll neither make any appearances for the Diamondbacks this season nor pitch in the Arizona Fall League this winter, Bradley is a viable candidate to make the 2014 rotation out of camp. His presence was a major contributing factor in the team deciding to trade Ian Kennedy at the deadline; Bradley finished the season with a 2.04 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 23.5 percent strikeout rate in 21 starts in Double-A ball and is regarded as nearly big-league ready. He'll be one of 2014's most attractive Rookie of the Year candidates.
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians: Would the Indians dare trade closer Chris Perez? They should at least try, considering Perez earned $7.3 million this season and is eligible for arbitration again during the winter, meaning he'll probably rank among the highest-paid relievers in baseball entering 2014. Perez hasn't been especially effective, after all, with 13 blown saves (out of 113 chances), a 3.53 ERA and 1.23 WHIP the past three seasons combined. Allen, by comparison, has been the more effective pitcher this year, with a 2.50 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, and is the better strikeout artist of the two. If Perez goes, Allen might not be outright handed the job, but he possesses the ability to easily be the victor of any spring battle for the position.

[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS FOR 2014[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers for 2014 are ranked for their expected performance during the 2014 season and the 2014 season alone. "Pos Rnk" is the player's rank among either starting or relief pitchers. " '13 PR" is the player's rank among all pitchers on the 2013 Player Rater (through Sept. 24). * indicates that the player is eligible for free agency after the 2013 season. + indicates that the player has a contract option for 2014.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Rnk</center>Player, Team<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Pos
Rnk</center>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">'13
PR</center>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;"> </center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Rnk</center>Player, Team<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Pos
Rnk</center>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">'13
PR</center>
1Clayton Kershaw, LADSP11 76Chris Archer, TBSP5481
2Yu Darvish, TexSP26 77Justin Masterson, CleSP5540
3Adam Wainwright, StLSP34 78Ernesto Frieri, LAARP2361
4Felix Hernandez, SeaSP420 79Ricky Nolasco, LAD *SP5658
5Stephen Strasburg, WshSP527 80Tony Cingrani, CinSP5782
6David Price, TBSP675 81Casey Janssen, Tor +RP2443
7Cliff Lee, PhiSP79 82John Lackey, BosSP5864
8Max Scherzer, DetSP82 83Edward Mujica, StL *RP2531
9Madison Bumgarner, SFSP910 84Doug Fister, DetSP5986
10Jose Fernandez, MiaSP107 85Bartolo Colon, OakSP6023
11Cole Hamels, PhiSP1159 86Danny Farquhar, SeaRP26177
12Zack Greinke, LADSP1222 87Ryan Cook, OakRP27161
13Chris Sale, CWSSP1313 88Ivan Nova, NYYSP61103
14Craig Kimbrel, AtlRP13 89Jonathon Niese, NYMSP62229
15Justin Verlander, DetSP1470 90Ubaldo Jimenez, Cle +SP6380
16Homer Bailey, CinSP1526 91Michael Wacha, StLSP64222
17Aroldis Chapman, CinRP219 92Travis Wood, ChCSP6538
18Anibal Sanchez, DetSP1618 93Sonny Gray, OakSP66173
19Gio Gonzalez, WshSP1768 94Joaquin Benoit, DetRP2849
20Mike Minor, AtlSP1821 95Taijuan Walker, SeaSP67343
21Kenley Jansen, LADRP317 96Yovani Gallardo, MilSP68154
22Jordan Zimmermann, WshSP1914 97Dan Straily, OakSP69119
23Mat Latos, CinSP2033 98Pedro Strop, ChCRP29270
24Julio Teheran, AtlSP2130 99Marco Estrada, MilSP70120
25Shelby Miller, StLSP2235 100Wade Miley, AriSP71118
26Matt Moore, TBSP2373 101Miguel Gonzalez, PhiSP72--
27Matt Cain, SFSP2492 102Tim Lincecum, SF *SP73126
28James Shields, KC +SP2545 103Scott Kazmir, CleSP74138
29A.J. Burnett, Pit *SP2666 104Jake McGee, TBRP30190
30Greg Holland, KCRP45 105Corey Kluber, CleSP7594
31Matt Harvey, NYMSP278 106Brandon Beachy, AtlSP76299
32Hisashi Iwakuma, SeaSP2811 107Jim Henderson, MilRP3163
33Gerrit Cole, PitSP2999 108Danny Salazar, CleSP77228
34Hyun-Jin Ryu, LADSP3042 109Alex Wood, AtlSP78218
35Addison Reed, CWSRP529 110Bruce Rondon, DetRP32350
36Kris Medlen, AtlSP3157 111Felix Doubront, BosSP79153
37Alex Cobb, TBSP3269 112Archie Bradley, AriSP80--
38Glen Perkins, MinRP624 113J.J. Putz, AriRP33212
39R.A. Dickey, TorSP3389 114Mike Leake, CinSP8160
40Rafael Soriano, WshRP744 115Randall Delgado, AriSP82185
41Koji Uehara, BosRP812 116A.J. Griffin, OakSP8339
42Clay Buchholz, BosSP3434 117Jason Motte, StLRP34--
43Joe Nathan, Tex +RP915 118Josh Johnson, Tor *SP84648
44Francisco Liriano, PitSP3528 119Rick Porcello, DetSP85116
45Patrick Corbin, AriSP3625 120Martin Perez, TexSP86179
46Jason Grilli, PitRP1071 121Alexi Ogando, TexSP87115
47Jarrod Parker, OakSP3779 122Mark Melancon, PitRP3556
48Rex Brothers, ColRP1193 123Dillon Gee, NYMSP8883
49Zack Wheeler, NYMSP38180 124Erasmo Ramirez, SeaSP89300
50Trevor Rosenthal, StLRP12130 125Jeremy Hellickson, TBSP90217
51Matt Garza, Tex *SP3995 126Jorge De La Rosa, Col *SP9196
52Lance Lynn, StLSP4090 127James Paxton, SeaSP92289
53Johnny Cueto, CinSP41155 128Tommy Milone, OakSP93114
54Jered Weaver, LAASP4278 129Roy Halladay, Phi *SP94589
55Jonathan Papelbon, PhiRP1352 130Brian Wilson, LAD *RP36286
56Sergio Romo, SFRP1436 131Tommy Hunter, BalRP3784
57Hiroki Kuroda, NYY *SP4346 132Edwin Jackson, ChCSP95263
58Fernando Rodney, TB *RP1553 133Trevor Cahill, AriSP96219
59Grant Balfour, Oak *RP1651 134Wily Peralta, MilSP97205
60Jeff Samardzija, ChCSP44136 135Joel Peralta, TBRP38175
61CC Sabathia, NYYSP45152 136Brett Anderson, OakSP98570
62Jim Johnson, BalRP1732 137Tanner Scheppers, TexRP39105
63Huston Street, SDRP1848 138Brad Ziegler, AriRP4088
64Jake Peavy, BosSP4687 139Kyle Lohse, MilSP9985
65Andrew Cashner, SDSP4755 140Phil Hughes, NYY *SP100402
66Jhoulys Chacin, ColSP4862 141Tyler Clippard, WshRP4191
67David Robertson, NYYRP19109 142Jose Veras, Det +RP42101
68Ervin Santana, KC *SP4941 143Dan Haren, Wsh *SP101164
69Bobby Parnell, NYMRP2074 144Jacob Turner, MiaSP102296
70Jon Lester, Bos +SP5065 145Ian Kennedy, SDSP103311
71Chris Perez, CleRP2197 146Drew Smyly, DetRP43100
72C.J. Wilson, LAASP5150 147Tanner Roark, WshSP104124
73Chris Tillman, BalSP5247 148Cody Allen, CleRP44131
74Derek Holland, TexSP5372 149Brandon McCarthy, AriSP105320
75Steve Cishek, MiaRP2237 150Bud Norris, BalSP106203

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hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Bits: Future ace Michael Wacha shines
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[/h][h=5]Eric Karabell[/h]
It’s amazing how the loaded St. Louis Cardinals continue to develop tremendous young and relevant pitching, almost an embarrassment of riches. Not only will right-handers Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal likely receive Rookie of the Year votes, but on Tuesday, Cardinals right-hander Michael Wacha, in his ninth big league start, came within one out of no-hitting the Washington Nationals. Wacha, who is no Bud Smith -- ask Cardinals/Phillies fans about the no-hit lefty from 2001-02 -- represents another future ace for this ridiculously deep team. Wacha ultimately allowed a Ryan Zimmerman infield single to end his date with history, but fantasy owners need to be aware of this guy immediately.

Relying on pinpoint mid-90s fastball command and a terrific changeup, Wacha breezed through a legit Nationals lineup that is fifth in baseball in runs scored this month and, despite being eliminated from playoff contention, was playing its regulars. I admit I was a bit apprehensive about using Wacha as a spot starter after his previous outings, one in which he walked four Seattle Mariners in five innings of work and the other a Coors Field-induced hitfest in which Wacha was pulled after 4 2/3 innings. On Tuesday there were no concerns. This is a future ace, folks, and someone likely to earn a place in the October rotation.

Projecting ahead, the Cardinals certainly could use Wacha, Rosenthal and right-hander Carlos Martinez -- don’t forget about him -- as starters next season, or one of them could be the closer. Regardless, fantasy owners should bet on top arms whatever the role, and the Cardinals continue to show they know what they’re doing, even without famed pitching coach Dave Duncan (it’s actually been Derek Lilliquist for a few years now.) Check out colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft’s 2014 pitcher rankings on Wednesday, but assuming Wacha is a starting pitcher in 2014, he’ll be eminently worth drafting even in 10-team formats, probably in the 50-55 range. Hey, the position is deep.

As for Rosenthal, who I thought should have been closing since April when Jason Motteblew out his arm, he’s following the Adam Wainwright path. In 2006, Wainwright, 24, was a relief pitcher. Then suddenly in the final week of the season he became the closer, and continued it through the successful playoff run. In 2007, he was an ace starter. Rosenthal has replaced Edward Mujica as closer, so add him for the final days, but keepers should plan on 200 terrific innings in 2014.

Box score bits (NL): In today’s version of top players being shut down early, don’t count on San Francisco Giants lefty Madison Bumgarner this week. He’s done. … Giants right-hander Matt Cain could get one more outing on Sunday. He permitted two solo home runs Tuesday, and little else, to lower his ERA to an even 4.00. Bad year? Well, his WHIP is 1.16, which isn’t bad at all. He’ll remain in my top-20 starters in 2014. … New York Mets right-hander Vic Black earned his first big league save Tuesday, and it could be the first of many. Black, acquired in the Marlon Byrd trade last month, was a minor league closer, after all. … Who would have guessed in March that Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy would finish top-5 at his position? He smacked a three-run homer Tuesday and has 20 stolen bases. …Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki homered for the 25th time Tuesday, the fourth time in his career he’s reached that mark. Sure, Tulo isn’t the most durable fellow, but how many shortstops hit for this much power annually? He’s fourth on the Rater at short and likely in my overall top-10 again in 2014. … Nice combo meal for Colorado Rockies outfielderCharlie Blackmon, as he homered and stole a base Tuesday. Blackmon is the No. 9 outfielder on the Player Rater over the past 15 days, so obviously he can help teams still in contention.

Box score bits (AL): Young Seattle Mariners lefty James Paxton dominated the Kansas City Royals Tuesday, striking out 10 over seven shutout innings. Paxton has won three of his four big leagues starts this month, and posted a 1.50 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Like Wacha, his future is very bright. … Before you get too excited about Mariners first baseman Justin Smoak, who homered Tuesday for the third time in a week, note his .160 batting average over the past month. The five home runs in that span aren’t worth it. It’s never gonna happen with Smoak. … Chicago White Sox outfielder Dayan Viciedo won’t approach the 25 home runs he blasted in 2012, but he hit his 14th on Tuesday and should not be ignored in 2014 drafts. Viciedo’s plate discipline needs work, but the power is legit. … Detroit Tigerssecond baseman Omar Infante reached 10 home runs Tuesday night, but is his .318 batting average the quietest in the game? Infante doesn’t get much notice, but he’s a top-15 second baseman this season. … Tampa Bay Rays lefty Matt Moore scares me too much. He didn’t allow a run to the New York Yankees Tuesday, but the six walks in five innings is a big problem. Moore raised his mark to 16-4, but he’ll likely be on my overpriced list for 2014. Moore is 15th in baseball in free passes, despite making only 26 starts. … Something just didn’t look right with Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda Tuesday. He permitted five more runs, and over the past month is winless with a 6.80 ERA. Until then, he was a dark horse Cy Young candidate. He’ll be undervalued in 2014.
 

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[h=1]Early 2014 hitter rankings[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Tristan H. Cockcroft[/FONT] | ESPN.com

The race for the No. 1 spot on 2014 draft boards is an exciting one.

But how players register after that should generate the real debate. As in, let's place early odds on a popular statement of the 2014 draft season being, "Boy, doesn't it stink to have the No. 3 pick in the draft?"
Ask anyone about their early top-10 picks for 2014, and they might struggle to find 10 players they feel strongly enough about for inclusion. This point was made by colleague Eric Karabell on a recent Fantasy Focus Podcast, and I agree. It is a very difficult snap decision to make and will require much examination by every fantasy owner heading into next year.
In this final 2013 edition of Hit Parade, let's get a head start on those 2014 ranking decisions, particularly that top 10. Today's edition provides preliminary hitter rankings for next season (and only next season). Player value encompasses standard ESPN rules: Rotisserie 5x5 scoring and traditional rosters minus the second catcher.
In addition, let's make some early predictions about 2014 trends, including:
"Who's No. 1": Self-explanatory.
"Early buzz": A player most likely to spend the winter riding the hype machine, whether he is expected to be a top pick at his position or is primed to rise the ranks.
"Hot stove impact": Players whose projected 2014 draft-day price tag might be significantly impacted by winter transactions.
"Value picks": Also self-explanatory.
Now, let's get to the rankings!
[h=3]Who's No. 1[/h]
i

Trout

i

Cabrera

It was the question posed during the 2012 American League Most Valuable Player balloting; it was the question posed again on draft day 2013; it was the question posed throughout the 2013 season; it was the question hinted at in the beginning of this column; and it'll be the question asked all offseason.
Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera?
Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout?
Player Rater data from this season says it's Cabrera. Player Rater data from 2012 says it's Trout. Combining the two years and going head-to-head with their Rotisserie contributions grants Cabrera a 3-2 advantage (batting average, home runs and RBI; Trout wins stolen bases and runs scored). But consider their relative major league standings over these two years combined in those five primary categories:
Cabrera: .337 AVG (1st), 88 HR (1st), 276 RBI (1st), 212 R (2nd), 7 SB (202nd)
Trout: .325 AVG (2nd), 56 HR (14th), 175 RBI (25th), 237 R (1st), 82 SB (2nd)

Trout is only the 15th player in history to post consecutive 25 HR/30 SB seasons, and only the fourth to do so before his 25th birthday (Bobby Bonds, Cesar Cedeno and Hanley Ramirez were the others) and only the fifth (of any age) to do so with batting averages of .300 or better in each year. Cabrera, meanwhile, is only the seventh player in history to post consecutive seasons with a minimum of a .330 AVG, 40 HRs and 125 RBIs (Chuck Klein, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Duke Snider and Todd Helton were the others), and he'd have back-to-back Triple Crowns if not for Chris Davis' crazy power year.
So how does one make this effectively split decision? One thing you might want to consider is the evolving value of the stolen base, the one substantial difference between the two. Here's a quick illustration, with "SB opportunities" as judged by Baseball-Reference.com:
2013: 0.55 SB per game, 72.7 SB%, 18.1 SB opportunities per attempt
2012 (1 year ago): 0.66 SB per game, 74.0 SB%, 15.1 SB opp. per attempt
2008 (5 years ago): 0.58 SB per game, 73.0 SB%, 18.3 SB opp. per attempt
2003 (10 years ago): 0.53 SB per game, 69.4 SB%, 18.8 SB opp. per attempt
1988 (25 years ago): 0.79 SB per game, 70.0 SB%, 12.2 SB opp. per attempt

Keeping in mind that both 2003 and 2008 resided in more offensive-friendly historical baseball environments than 2012 and '13, that's a marked decline in stolen base production, which helps explain how a player like Billy Hamilton could be the No. 44 hitter on our Player Rater's "Last 30" split despite only 20 plate appearances during that span. (For some perspective, that's 97 fewer than the No. 1 player, Hunter Pence, has in that time.) Speedsters -- specifically power-speed types -- took on greater importance this season, and that's a trend somewhat likely to extend into 2014.
There is no incorrect choice between these two; the debate is a legitimate one and the value difference between the two is negligible.
Still, a pick must be made, and astute readers who caught on to my hint last week know I'd select Trout. Besides the stolen-base contributions, he possesses one more potential advantage: He'll play approximately two-thirds of the 2014 season as a 22-year-old, while Cabrera will turn 31 in April. That's not to say that every 22-year-old is a lock to take a step forward, or that a 31-year-old is destined for decline, but the odds of the 22-year-old gaining value is simply greater. And if Trout gains even a hint more of power while keeping his steals in the 30s -- a distinct possibility considering how much improvement he showed in terms of plate discipline in 2013 -- he'll more than make up the small Player Rater difference between the two.
[h=3]Early buzz[/h]Every winter has its share of buzz-worthy fantasy names, players most likely to spend the offseason riding the hype machine en route to soaring up the 2014 preseason rankings. That's not to say they aren't deserving; it's merely to say that you'll hear plenty of chatter about the following hitters between now and March:


Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks: He isn't receiving nearly enough credit for his 2013 contributions, and since his Diamondbacks missed the playoffs, he could be assured of not getting credit in the MVP balloting run, too. So let's fuel some hype: Goldschmidt has the third-most homers (36), third-most RBIs (124) and fourth-best slugging percentage (.561) in baseball, and the obvious reason he's not praised more for them is that Miguel Cabrera and Chris Davis have had epic campaigns. Plus, what elevates Goldschmidt over other first basemen is his speed; he is the first player with at least 100 games played at the position to manage consecutive 15-steal campaigns since Derrek Lee (2002 and '03), and he is only the ninth player in history with at least 100 games at first base with a season of at least a .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 15 steals. Incidentally, if you're worried about Goldschmidt's BABIP (.345) portending a drop in batting average, consider that he had a comparable BABIP in 2012 (.340). He also lowered his strikeout rate by nearly 2 percent (22.1 in 2012, 20.6 this year) and his chase rate by more than 6 percent (27.0 to 20.8), and for the second consecutive season he made significant strides in performance against breaking pitches (curveballs and sliders), a former weakness of his.
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers: What of Ryan Braun? He'll be back from suspension for the start of 2014, but what production from Braun might we expect? This isn't even hinting that he'll experience a PED-related decline in performance; what about the daily strain of fan (and potentially player) criticism? Braun will be a subject of much debate throughout the winter, and he'll face arguably the greatest challenge of his career once camps open. However, in his defense, he seemed plenty motivated to quiet his critics in 2012, the last time he was surrounded by PED chatter -- remember, that was the season coming off his successful appeal of a similar suspension -- and he's one of the few players in baseball with legitimate 30-homer, 20-steal potential. And perhaps setting even those as his baselines is being too conservative.
Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals: Everyone loves Bryce Harper. He was the "it" player in the hype department last year, and as a 21-year-old with the projected career ahead of him, he's sure to be a popular choice again in 2014. Before this season, Harper was the No. 27 player selected overall in ESPN live drafts, and in many other competitions he was regarded a top-20 selection. He was a .356 hitter with nine home runs in 25 games (that's a 58-homer pace) before crashing into a wall and injuring his hip on April 29, and a .303 hitter with 10 homers and 21 RBIs in 38 games (43-homer pace) before crashing intoanother wall and injuring his left knee on May 13. He continued to play through both ailments before finally succumbing to the DL, and after his return on July 1, he wasn't quite the same player: He batted .271 with eight homers, 34 RBIs and nine stolen bases (17-homer, 71-RBI and 19-steal paces) in 72 games. A winter's rest should surely do Harper some good, and while he does have some warts at this stage of his career -- he's a .211/.327/.313 hitter against lefties and .218/.288/.436 against breaking pitches (curves and sliders) this season -- his ceiling, even for 2014, is as high as anyone's in baseball. He is generously ranked in this space accounting for that, but it's also a conservative ranking admitting he has improvements to make.

Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals: There are a couple of reasons he'll be massively hyped -- he'd be my early pick for the A-No. 1 hype-machine player of 2014. The first is his No. 32 ranking among all hitters on the 2013 Player Rater, and the second is his monstrous career turnaround beginning on June 1: From that day forward he batted .321/.371/.500 with 16 home runs, 63 RBIs and eight stolen bases in 106 games. It wasn't a mirage, either, as Hosmer made many of the improvements we needed to see to believe he'd develop into the top-five fantasy first baseman everyone predicted when he debuted in the majors in 2011: He made massive strides covering the inner half of the plate, batting .358/.389/.549 on those pitches from June 1 forward, compared to .215/.280/.299 from the beginning of 2012 through June 1, 2013. This resulted in his pulling the ball on the ground 16 percent less often, which helps counter some of the defensive shifts he faces.


Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers:Well of course he'll be hyped; his June ranked up there with some of the all-time great first-month performances in baseball history. Granted, he played only four of six months in the 2013 season, but were you aware that, despite his efforts, he might finish outside the top 50 hitters on our Player Rater (he's 51st)? From July 1 forward, Puig batted a more human .284/.371/.483 with 12 homers, 46 runs scored and seven stolen bases in 74 games (25-homer, 97-run and 15-steal paces), and his season BABIP (.386) was second-highest among players with 400 plate appearances. Some degree of regression is inevitable for Puig in 2014, and each fantasy owner's judgment of how extreme it might be will be a storyline for the winter.
Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds: Um, he's fast. Again, he has been a top-50 fantasy hitter during the past 30 days -- and he has been in the major leagues for only 24 of those -- thanks almost entirely to his 13 steals. To put his stolen-base prowess into perspective, consider that Hamilton's 13 steals have been exceeded by only 58 other major leaguers for the season, and every one of those 58 players has appeared in at least 43 more games and accrued at least 207 more PAs than him. Hamilton has also amassed 103, 165 and 88 steals in his past three professional seasons; only nine major leaguers in history have ever stolen at least 88 in a single year. He has also not appeared lost at the plate in his 20 PAs -- granted it's the tiniest of samples -- and his speed might give opposing pitchers fits if he's given a chance to play regularly. Hamilton's 2014 role might have a massive impact on fantasy baseball.
[h=3]Hot stove impact[/h]
Two of the winter's top free-agent hitting prizes reside in the top 10 on our Player Rater overall: One is the A-No. 1 prize, second baseman Robinson Cano, and the other is former No. 2-overall-on-the-Player Rater (2011) outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury.


Cano's 2014 destination might be the story of the hot stove season, as he could command in excess of $25 million per season. Yet he has spent his entire career playing for a New York Yankees team that this past year boasted a "pinching pennies" strategy. His situation will answer the question: Was it more important to the Yankees to keep their best player in pinstripes at any cost, or to meet their goal of a $185 million payroll for 2014? The answer is critical not only in the real game, but also in fantasy, as the left-handed Cano certainly enjoys a statistical advantage thanks to the short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium. He has hit 79 of his 204 career homers there, and 79 of 142 (or 55.6 percent) since the venue opened in 2009. In addition, his home run/fly ball percentage is 3 percent higher at Yankee Stadium than it was on the road from 2009 to '13 (18.5 percent, compared to 15.4 percent on the road). Cano would remain the No. 1 second baseman in fantasy wherever he plays, but he's a slightly more attractive pick in pinstripes.
Ellsbury, meanwhile, also might not remain as valuable in fantasy if he leaves the Boston Red Sox. The most pertinent impact would be on his stolen-base production; one would hope that he winds up with a team as apt to give him the green light, though his 52-for-56 performance in the category this season suggests that even a conservative squad like Billy Beane's Oakland Athletics would still recognize his ability. Ellsbury could score fewer runs if he signs with a below-average offensive team, though the average major league leadoff hitter managed a .328 on-base percentage and 93 runs scored (using teams' leadoff-spot totals), and Ellsbury has a .357 OBP with 91 runs this year and a .351 OBP and an average of 108 runs per 162 games played in his career. He has actually been surprisingly weak in runs scored, at least if you account for his speed and on-base ability.
Cano and Ellsbury aren't the only prominent free-agent hitters who will be on the winter market. Listed below are a few other key names, the first of which has a direct bearing upon the last player discussed in the previous section:
Shin-Soo Choo: He plays the precise position that Billy Hamilton played 118 times for Triple-A Louisville this season, and at the time of Choo's acquisition last winter, the Reds openly hinted that he'd be a one-year center-field plug-in as Hamilton adapts to that new position (Hamilton was previously a shortstop). Choo's fantasy value soared in Cincinnati, as the Reds in 2012 had the majors' second-worst on-base percentage among leadoff hitters (.284), resulting in 92 runs scored out of that spot; Choo managed a .434 on-base percentage and 104 runs in that spot this season. Great American Ball Park also padded his numbers, as he was a .321/.450/.509 hitter there compared to .251/.399/.424 on the road, though he did score more runs on the road (57) than at home (49). As awkward as it might sound, fantasy owners might want to root for Choo to re-sign with the Reds. After all, in two of Hamilton's three starts this season, Choo shifted to left field (he sat the third game), hinting that there's a reasonable scenario in which both could play in the same outfield. In addition, a Reds lineup that includes both probably has Hamilton leading off and Choo batting second; that'd represent a significant advantage for Hamilton, because of Choo's ability to work the count and afford the speedster maximum stolen-base opportunities.

Nelson Cruz: He's in a similar boat to Ryan Braun, though he's not quite as accomplished a hitter and he'll also have a chance to return to action if the Texas Rangers qualify for the postseason, at least providing an opportunity for us to examine him post-suspension. Would the Rangers re-sign him, knowing that his 50-game absence has been a contributing factor in their decline in the standings? A return to Texas might be critical to Cruz's fantasy prospects; the past three years combined, he was a .280/.341/.549 hitter in his home games at hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark, compared to .247/.299/.432 on the road.


Brian McCann: His recovery from shoulder surgery this season went about the best that could possibly be expected, as he managed the seventh 20-homer campaign of his career despite not appearing in a game until May 6. But do the Braves intend to bring back McCann, knowing that he'll reach his 30th birthday in February and that his batting average has been trending downward? Where he lands might not have much of an impact upon his own fantasy value, but it has a bearing on Evan Gattis' 2014 appeal. McCann has never had the best defensive reputation -- that is partly undeserved -- and it's possible that the Braves might be more open to letting Gattis take over, knowing they already have a defensively minded backup under contract for 2014 in Gerald Laird. Re-signing McCann, too, might signal a possible trade of Gattis, presumably to an American League team that wants him as a designated hitter.
Curtis Granderson: Like Cano, the prospect of Granderson leaving Yankee Stadium is an ominous one. But while Cano, the more complete hitter of the two, wouldn't lose much of his fantasy appeal in new surroundings, Granderson is at far greater risk of a precipitous drop, in terms of per-game value, considering he missed much of his "walk year" with multiple fractures, first to his right forearm and then to his left hand. Granderson has hit 115 home runs in his Yankees career, and 63 of those (54.8 percent) came at Yankee Stadium. What's more, he's an extreme pull, fly-ball hitter: He has the third-most pulled fly balls of any left-handed hitter since 2010 (191), and his 49.7 percent rate of pulled balls in play trails only Carlos Pena and Matt Joyce among left-handed hitters during that span. Leaving for a more spacious ballpark might require another adjustment to his swing, something that has put Granderson at risk for slumps or diminished power in the past.
Mike Napoli: This one is as simple as position eligibility. Napoli hasn't played a single inning at catcher this season for the Boston Red Sox. That means he'll enter 2014 eligible only in first base in fantasy leagues, which is a hit to his value, evidenced by his ranking as the No. 5 catcher but only the No. 17 first baseman on our Player Rater. The Red Sox might seek to re-sign him, knowing that Napoli has answered the questions about his hip that were present last winter, but if they don't, might another team consider him for at least part-time duty behind the plate?
Other free agents of note: A.J. Pierzynski, Carlos Ruiz, Corey Hart, Paul Konerko, James Loney, Kendrys Morales, Justin Morneau, Michael Morse, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Youkilis, Omar Infante, Kevin Youkilis, Michael Young, Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, Carlos Beltran, Rajai Davis, Raul Ibanez, Nate McLouth, Hunter Pence.
Risky option years: Among the class of prospective free agents who would first need their teams to decline options -- or in some cases they themselves could -- are: Adam Lind, Ben Zobrist, Yunel Escobar, Derek Jeter, Norichika Aoki and Coco Crisp.
[h=3]Value picks[/h]
Extending the rankings 150 hitters deep greatly reduces the amount of "sleeper" candidates, so among those ranked no higher than 75th, here are a few I'll be closely examining all winter (and spring) as possible bargains:


Matt Adams, St. Louis Cardinals: Not many teams can claim this much roster depth: Allen Craig, the Cardinals' cleanup hitter for 110 games this season, has been out since Sept. 4 , but they haven't experienced even a decline in production at his position. Adams is that good, sporting a .325 batting average and eight home runs in 22 games in September, including 18 starts in the Cardinals' 24 games in the month. Adams completed his minor league career with .318/.364/.563 triple-slash rates and an average of 36 home runs per 162 games played, and through a year-plus in the bigs he has .276/.325/.481 rates and an average of 23 homers per 162. Among bench players in baseball, he's one of the most deserving of a starting job in 2014, and the Cardinals could face an interesting decision this winter as a result. Might they trade Adams or Craig? Or, perhaps more reasonably, could they let free-agent Carlos Beltran depart and let Craig, rather than prospect Oscar Taveras, take over in right field?
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox: He's another player potentially impacted by winter free-agent moves, as the current Red Sox shortstop, Stephen Drew, has an expiring contract. Bogaerts' future is probably at shortstop, especially with Will Middlebrooks handling third base adequately, and fantasy owners would probably prefer to see the youngster wind up at short. Don't criticize Bogaerts for lackluster production in the majors this year. Since his promotion, he has started consecutive games only twice, and neither time at the same position, though he had been accustomed to regular playing time only at shortstop during his minor league career. He's one of the more disciplined prospects in the game and will have his perceived value deflated based on his unimpressive 2013 stat line.
Oswaldo Arcia, Minnesota Twins: He has a swing that should produce much natural power, and as a 22-year-old, he has potential growth in that department and a lengthy career in which to display it. That the Twins have been out of the running all year has afforded Arcia the advantage of adjusting to the bigs with almost zero pressure; it also means that most fantasy owners probably don't even know who he is. He does, however, have eight home runs in 36 games since his most recent recall, including three at Target Field, which has that high right-field wall. Arcia is that kind of power prospect; if he hits 30 home runs as early as next season, I won't be remotely surprised.
Mike Zunino, Seattle Mariners: He has endured a trying season, batting only .227/.297/.478 in 52 games for Triple-A Tacoma, .215/.295/.337 in 49 games for the Mariners, and missing two months with a fractured hand. It's natural, therefore, that so many people who loved Zunino entering the year might now have their doubts about his long-term future. Still, be patient with him. The No. 3 overall pick in the 2012 MLB draft, he was advanced quickly to the majors at the age of 22, with fewer than 100 games of minor league experience, and even more experienced catching prospects often take considerable time to adapt to the majors. Zunino is as good a hitting prospect as fellow Mariners catcherJesus Montero, and is a more capable defender.
Adam Eaton, Arizona Diamondbacks: Let's face it, the only thing that has really changed with Eaton, a popular sleeper at the beginning of spring training this season, is that he missed a significant chunk of the year with a sprained left elbow. Frankly, he's every bit the power/speed combo player -- OK, let's say a bit more of a "lite" example of it -- that he was back in March. Since Aug. 1, he's a .274/.330/.403 hitter with three home runs, 20 RBIs, five stolen bases and 31 runs scored; those represent 9-homer, 62-RBI, 16-steal and 97-run season paces. And while those paces might not overwhelm you, bear in mind that he hasn't exactly been granted a regular position in either the lineup or the field -- he was projected the team's every-day leadoff hitter and center fielder in the preseason -- meaning that a clearer role entering 2014 might help his cause. He could be a sneaky 12/30 pick.
George Springer, Houston Astros: Will Springer break camp with the Astros in 2014? He certainly has the talent to make a compelling case for it. A tremendous athlete, Springer finished the year three home runs shy of becoming the first 40/40 player in modern minor league baseball history; his line was .303/.411/.600, plus 37 home runs, 108 RBIs, 45 stolen bases and 106 runs scored in 135 games between Double-A Corpus Christi and Triple-A Oklahoma City. And while both of those teams reside in hitter-friendly leagues (Texas and Pacific Coast Leagues), Springer has a brilliant combination of elite power and efficient speed (he's 81-for-97 in his career attempting steals). He might garner a good chunk of early buzz for 2014 American League Rookie of the Year honors, and he will be one of the most important players to monitor once camps open in February.

[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS FOR 2014[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters for 2014 are ranked for their expected performance during the 2014 season and the 2014 season alone. "Pos Rnk" is the player's rank at his probable primary fantasy position for 2014. " '13 PR" is the player's rank among all hitters on the 2013 Player Rater (through Sept. 25). * indicates that the player is eligible for free agency after the 2013 season. + indicates that the player has a contract option for 2014.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Rnk</center>Player, Team<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Pos
Rnk</center>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">'13
PR</center>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;"></center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Rnk</center>Player, Team<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Pos
Rnk</center>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">'13
PR</center>
1Mike Trout, LAAOF1276Brett Lawrie, Tor3B10188
2Miguel Cabrera, Det3B1177Jonathan Lucroy, MilC675
3Andrew McCutchen, PitOF2578Starlin Castro, ChCSS9177
4Paul Goldschmidt, Ari1B1379Kendrys Morales, Sea *1B1377
5Robinson Cano, NYY *2B11080Carlos Beltran, StL *OF3038
6Carlos Gonzalez, ColOF32081Wilin Rosario, ColC761
7Chris Davis, Bal1B2482Carl Crawford, LADOF31128
8Hanley Ramirez, LADSS14383Victor Martinez, DetDH363
9Adam Jones, BalOF4784Mark Teixeira, NYY1B14473
10Troy Tulowitzki, ColSS23985Chase Headley, SD3B11148
11Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos *OF5686Jayson Werth, WshOF3222
12Adrian Beltre, Tex3B21387Jed Lowrie, OakSS1074
13Prince Fielder, Det1B33688Christian Yelich, MiaOF33225
14David Wright, NYM3B33789Brandon Belt, SF1B1581
15Joey Votto, Cin1B42590Michael Cuddyer, ColOF3414
16Ryan Braun, MilOF618491Pablo Sandoval, SF3B12115
17Evan Longoria, TB3B44792Will Venable, SDOF3550
18Freddie Freeman, Atl1B51893Martin Prado, Ari3B1389
19Bryce Harper, WshOF77394Mike Napoli, Bos *1B1679
20Edwin Encarnacion, Tor1B61595Josh Hamilton, LAAOF36102
21Giancarlo Stanton, MiaOF812296Matt Adams, StL1B17143
22Carlos Gomez, MilOF9997Matt Wieters, BalC8135
23Jason Kipnis, Cle2B21998Shane Victorino, BosOF3734
24Matt Kemp, LADOF1019699Andrelton Simmons, AtlSS11125
25Dustin Pedroia, Bos2B333100Howie Kendrick, LAA2B1195
26Jose Bautista, TorOF1156101Todd Frazier, Cin3B14132
27Buster Posey, SFC185102Josh Reddick, OakOF38176
28Jose Reyes, TorSS3105103Jurickson Profar, Tex2B12327
29Eric Hosmer, KC1B732104Jimmy Rollins, PhiSS12124
30Albert Pujols, LAA1B8141105Wilson Ramos, WshC9173
31Jay Bruce, CinOF1230106B.J. Upton, AtlOF39343
32Ian Kinsler, Tex2B457107Nelson Cruz, Tex *OF4080
33Justin Upton, AtlOF1355108Nolan Arenado, Col3B15158
34Ian Desmond, WshSS428109Aaron Hill, Ari2B13156
35Allen Craig, StL1B944110Ike Davis, NYM1B18303
36Starling Marte, PitOF1426111Alfonso Soriano, NYYOF4116
37Adrian Gonzalez, LAD1B1046112Michael Bourn, CleOF4297
38Yasiel Puig, LADOF1551113Alexei Ramirez, CWSSS1352
39Jean Segura, MilSS512114Aramis Ramirez, Mil3B16166
40David Ortiz, BosDH117115Jason Castro, HouC10107
41Matt Carpenter, StL2B521116Ben Revere, PhiOF43137
42Yadier Molina, StLC262117Daniel Murphy, NYM2B1429
43Josh Donaldson, Oak3B523118Logan Morrison, Mia1B19287
44Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh3B642119Leonys Martin, TexOF4464
45Yoenis Cespedes, OakOF1686120Erick Aybar, LAASS14117
46Everth Cabrera, SDSS668121Brian McCann, Atl *C11150
47Anthony Rizzo, ChC1B11111122Adam Lind, Tor +1B2083
48Brandon Phillips, Cin2B665123Adam Eaton, AriOF45262
49Manny Machado, Bal3B759124Brett Gardner, NYYOF4660
50Matt Holliday, StLOF1731125Evan Gattis, AtlC12170
51Domonic Brown, PhiOF1848126Will Middlebrooks, Bos3B17190
52Elvis Andrus, TexSS727127Alejandro De Aza, CWSOF4749
53Pedro Alvarez, Pit3B882128J.J. Hardy, BalSS1592
54Alex Gordon, KCOF1945129Coco Crisp, Oak +OF4840
55Jason Heyward, AtlOF20181130David Freese, StL3B18175
56Carlos Santana, CleC398131Ryan Howard, Phi1B21209
57Alex Rios, TexOF218132Chris Johnson, Atl3B1984
58Jose Altuve, Hou2B741133Oscar Taveras, StLOF49--
59Billy Butler, KCDH299134Anthony Rendon, Wsh2B15233
60Ben Zobrist, TB2B888135Yonder Alonso, SD1B22179
61Austin Jackson, DetOF2291136Jonathan Villar, HouSS16251
62Kyle Seager, Sea3B966137Michael Brantley, CleOF5058
63Mark Trumbo, LAA1B1253138Neil Walker, Pit2B16161
64Hunter Pence, SF *OF2311139Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Bos *C13108
65Joe Mauer, MinC4100140Justin Smoak, Sea1B23182
66Desmond Jennings, TBOF2478141Nick Markakis, BalOF51114
67Wil Myers, TBOF25127142Brandon Moss, Oak1B2472
68Shin-Soo Choo, Cin *OF2624143Nick Franklin, Sea2B17223
69Chase Utley, Phi2B969144Alcides Escobar, KCSS17154
70Dexter Fowler, ColOF2796145Colby Rasmus, TorOF52104
71Jedd Gyorko, SD2B10145146Norichika Aoki, MilOF5371
72Billy Hamilton, CinOF28312147Adam LaRoche, Wsh1B25129
73Asdrubal Cabrera, CleSS8130148Dustin Ackley, Sea2B18273
74Salvador Perez, KCC5118149Miguel Montero, AriC14243
75Curtis Granderson, NYY *OF29280150Mike Moustakas, KC3B20256

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hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]2013 postseason fantasy baseball rankings
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[/h]
[h=5]Eric Karabell[/h]
Welcome to October and the 2013 version of the ESPN Fantasy annual baseball postseason rankings! The [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Tampa Bay Rays[/FONT] settled the final official playoff spot Monday night, so here we go with position by position rankings and a top 100 to get you ready for your postseason pools. What? You haven’t participated in a playoff pool before? Get in the game, it’s a blast!

Of course, these rankings might appear a bit strange to some, so let’s explain: To win a playoff pool, one must have players who play enough games to accumulate the points needed. Seems obvious, right? In short, it’s nice to have players who advance to the World Series, or at least get a full series of games in! As a result, you’ll see members of the[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Pittsburgh Pirates[/FONT], [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Cincinnati Reds[/FONT], [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Cleveland Indians[/FONT] and Tampa Bay Rays did not fare so well in these rankings. It’s customary for drafters to choose teams before the wild card elimination games, but there’s inherent risk in choosing a Pirate, for example. If they win, the value on their players advances greatly. They would be in the same spot as the division winners at that point. If they lose, well, it’s a problem. As a result, [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Joey Votto[/FONT], for example, is not ranked as well as [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Brandon Moss[/FONT]. Odd? Well, we know Moss is playing at least three games, and perhaps many more. Votto could be one-and-done, and against a tough lefty starter. In most cases, my rankings reflect players I believe will play the most games and pitch the most innings, and devalue those who might play only one game this week.

Another important factor in drafting -- and if you draft after the wild-card games, then simply ignore the players on the losing teams -- is predicting which teams you think will advance, and thus will provide the most value. [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Los Angeles Dodgers[/FONT] ace [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Clayton Kershaw[/FONT]is the best pitcher in the game, but if you think the Dodgers aren't getting out of the first round, or even deep into the first round, then he could be making only one start. It’s the same as the losing pitchers from the wild-card round.
[h=4]Players by position[/h]Catcher
Yadier Molina, Cardinals
Mike Napoli, Red Sox
Brian McCann, Braves
Evan Gattis, Braves
Victor Martinez, Tigers
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Red Sox
Carlos Santana, Indians
Derek Norris, Athletics
Alex Avila, Tigers
Russell Martin, Pirates
Yan Gomes, Indians
A.J. Ellis, Dodgers
Jose Lobaton, Rays
Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
Ryan Hanigan, Reds
Devin Mesoraco, Reds
Jose Molina, Rays

First base/DH
David Ortiz, Red Sox
Freddie Freeman, Braves
Prince Fielder, Tigers
Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers
Matt Adams, Cardinals
Brandon Moss, Athletics
Joey Votto, Reds
Nick Swisher, Indians
James Loney, Rays
Justin Morneau, Pirates
Daric Barton, Athletics
Jason Giambi, Indians
Allen Craig, Cardinals

Second base
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
Omar Infante, Tigers
Dan Uggla, Braves
Jason Kipnis, Indians
Ben Zobrist, Rays
Mark Ellis, Dodgers
Eric Sogard, Athletics
Alberto Callaspo, Athletics
Brandon Phillips, Reds
Todd Walker, Pirates
Ryan Raburn, Indians
Kelly Johnson, Rays
Kolten Wong, Cardinals
Jerry Hairston Jr., Dodgers

Shortstop
Hanley Ramirez, Dodgers
Andrelton Simmons, Braves
Jed Lowrie, Athletics
Stephen Drew, Red Sox
Jose Iglesias, Tigers
Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
Yunel Escobar, Rays
Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox
Pete Kozma, Cardinals
Mike Aviles, Indians
Daniel Descalso, Cardinals
Zack Cozart, Reds
Billy Hamilton, Reds
Dee Gordon, Dodgers
Elliot Johnson, Braves
Clint Barmes, Pirates
Nick Punto, Dodgers
Jordy Mercer, Pirates

Third base
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
Josh Donaldson, Athletics
David Freese, Cardinals
Chris Johnson, Braves
Will Middlebrooks, Red Sox
Evan Longoria, Rays
Juan Uribe, Dodgers
Pedro Alvarez, Pirates
Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians
Todd Frazier, Reds
Michael Young, Dodgers

Outfield
Yasiel Puig, Dodgers
Coco Crisp, Athletics
Matt Holliday, Cardinals
Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics
Justin Upton, Braves
Shane Victorino, Red Sox
Carlos Beltran, Cardinals
Jason Heyward, Braves
Torii Hunter, Tigers
Austin Jackson, Tigers
Carl Crawford, Dodgers
Jon Jay, Cardinals
Daniel Nava, Red Sox
Josh Reddick, Athletics
Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
Jay Bruce, Reds
Starling Marte, Pirates
Shin-Soo Choo, Reds
Wil Myers, Rays
Andre Ethier, Dodgers
Michael Bourn, Indians
Marlon Byrd, Pirates
Michael Brantley, Indians
Jordan Schafer, Braves
B.J. Upton, Braves
Desmond Jennings, Rays
Drew Stubbs, Indians
Chris Young, Athletics
Andy Dirks, Tigers
Jonny Gomes, Red Sox
Scott Van Slyke, Dodgers
Delmon Young, Rays
Seth Smith, Athletics
Ryan Ludwick, Reds
David DeJesus, Rays
Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox
Jose Tabata, Pirates
Garrett Jones, Pirates
Chris Heisey, Reds
Don Kelly, Tigers

Starting pitcher
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
Zack Greinke, Dodgers
Max Scherzer, Tigers
Mike Minor, Braves
Anibal Sanchez, Tigers
Jake Peavy, Red Sox
Justin Verlander, Tigers
Jon Lester, Red Sox
Bartolo Colon, Athletics
Kris Medlen, Braves
Shelby Miller, Cardinals
Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers
Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
Lance Lynn, Cardinals
Jarrod Parker, Athletics
Julio Teheran, Braves
Michael Wacha, Cardinals
Doug Fister, Tigers
John Lackey, Red Sox
Francisco Liriano, Pirates
Johnny Cueto, Reds
Alex Cobb, Rays
Ricky Nolasco, Dodgers
Danny Salazar, Indians
David Price, Rays
Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians
Sonny Gray, Athletics
A.J. Griffin, Athletics
Matt Moore, Rays
Gerrit Cole, Pirates
A.J. Burnett, Pirates
Charlie Morton, Pirates
Homer Bailey, Reds
Mat Latos, Reds
Paul Maholm, Braves
Alex Wood, Braves
Jeremy Hellickson, Rays
Joe Kelly, Cardinals
Bronson Arroyo, Reds
Chris Archer, Rays
Scott Kazmir, Indians
Justin Masterson, Indians
Zach McAllister, Indians
Corey Kluber, Indians
Mike Leake, Reds
Tony Cingrani, Reds
Rick Porcello, Tigers
Ryan Dempster, Red Sox
Jake Westbrook, Cardinals
Dan Straily, Athletics
Jake Odorizzi, Rays

Relief pitcher
Craig Kimbrel, Braves
Koji Uehara, Red Sox
Trevor Rosenthal, Cardinals
Kenley Jansen, Dodgers
Joaquin Benoit, Tigers
Grant Balfour, Athletics
Jason Grilli, Pirates
Aroldis Chapman, Reds
Fernando Rodney, Rays
Mark Melancon, Pirates
Sean Doolittle, Athletics
Ryan Cook, Athletics
Edward Mujica, Cardinals
Jose Veras, Tigers
Chris Perez, Indians
Joe Smith, Indians
Drew Smyly, Tigers
Junichi Tazawa, Red Sox
Luis Avilan, Braves
Kevin Siegrist, Cardinals
Brian Wilson, Dodgers
Paco Rodriguez, Dodgers
John Axford, Cardinals




That’s the inherent risk/reward of these picks. If you think the Dodgers will win the World Series, Kershaw could make six starts, two in each round. He could win them all. And we know from this scoring system (see below) that it favors the top October starting pitchers who advance and keep winning. That doesn't necessarily mean the top regular season starting pitchers. Last season, World Series champion [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]San Francisco Giants[/FONT] right-hander [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Ryan Vogelsong[/FONT]finished as the highest-scoring player -- it’s true! -- while third baseman [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Pablo Sandoval[/FONT] was the top hitter. Overall, remember that good pitching tends to beat good hitting, and the five NL playoff entrants were also the five best in overall ERA this season.

(By the way, I've got the Pirates/Indians advancing to the first round, then the Cardinals/Braves and Red Sox/Athletics meeting for the World Series trip. And [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Trevor Rosenthal[/FONT]fans [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Mike Napoli[/FONT] for the final out of this glorious baseball season!)

The scoring we use for purposes of this blog entry and for our own office pool is provided by Tristan H. Cockcroft: 1 point for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a home run, 1 for an RBI, 1 for a run scored, 1 for a walk, 1 for a hit by pitch (batter), 2 for a stolen base, 4 for a win, 8 for a save, 1 per pitching out (so 3 per inning), minus-1 for each hit allowed, minus-1 for each walk allowed, minus-1 for a hit by pitch (pitcher), minus-3 for an earned run, and 2 for a pitcher strikeout. Hitter eligibility is based on what it was in fantasy for the 2013 season, and we have ranked multipositional hitters at the spot you’re most likely to use them. We've also combined the few designated hitters with first basemen.

1. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Tigers: No debate among the hitters. There’s no [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Mike Trout[/FONT] here.
2. Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals: My pick to win the World Series MVP.
3. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers: Frankly, his previous postseason work is not a factor to me. I just predict the Cardinals advance to the World Series. Nothing personal!
4. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Dodgers: Extrapolate his season numbers and wow!
5. David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox: Well, he’s been in the postseason before. And he can play first base in the World Series in the NL park.
6. Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals: No [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Buster Posey[/FONT]in these playoffs. Might seem like a generous rank for Molina, but you don’t want his Tampa Bay brother as your only catcher, either. Supply versus demand, like running backs in football!
7. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves: Better than most think, and is far from an automatic out versus lefties such as Kershaw.
8. Zack Greinke, SP, Dodgers: Made three postseason starts in 2011. Posted 6.48 ERA. He's a different guy now.
9. Max Scherzer, SP, Tigers: Well, people say he’s a winner.
10. Mike Minor, SP, Braves: No Kershaw, but not exactly a bad pitcher. Finished 17th among pitchers on Player Rater, and I’ve got the Braves beating the Dodgers.
11. Anibal Sanchez, SP, Tigers
12. Prince Fielder, 1B, Tigers: Don’t try to overthink things. Not his best regular season, but stakes are different now.
13. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Athletics: Who would have guessed back in March he’d be this good?
14. Jake Peavy, SP, Red Sox: Last playoff start came in 2006.
15. Matt Carpenter, 2B/3B/1B, Cardinals: He’s a lot better than you think.
16. Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers: Should be a blast to watch in this series.
17. Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers: Lifetime postseason ERA is 4.22 in 12 starts. Did beat the A’s twice in last season’s ALDS, though.
18. Jon Lester, SP, Red Sox
19. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B. Dodgers
20. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox
21. Coco Crisp, OF, Athletics: Hey, there were nine 20-homer, 20-steal players, and he’s the only one guaranteed more than one playoff game.
22. Matt Holliday, OF, Cardinals
23. Matt Adams, 1B, Cardinals: You won’t see[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Allen Craig[/FONT] ranked here. Doubtful he plays again this season.
24. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox: Sure, some concerns are he doesn't run much. Especially if he gets [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Jose Molina[/FONT] and the Rays.
25. Craig Kimbrel, RP, Braves: Closers end up being boom or bust picks in this format.
26. Koji Uehara, RP, Red Sox
27. Trevor Rosenthal, RP, Cardinals
28. Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Athletics
29. Justin Upton, OF, Braves: Will this be one of his good or bad months?
30. Kenley Jansen, RP, Dodgers
31. Shane Victorino, OF, Red Sox
32. Carlos Beltran, OF, Cardinals
33. Brandon Moss, 1B/OF, Athletics: He said he’d hit 30 homers, and he sure did.
34. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves: Walks matter here, too.
35. Joaquin Benoit, RP, Tigers
36. Grant Balfour, RP, Athletics
37. Bartolo Colon, SP, Athletics: Game 1 starter. And potentially Game 5.
38. Kris Medlen, SP, Braves: Also a Game 1 starter.
39. Torii Hunter, OF, Tigers
40. Austin Jackson, OF, Tigers
41. Carl Crawford, OF, Dodgers: He’s healthy enough to play, but [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Matt Kemp[/FONT] isn’t.
42. Shelby Miller, SP, Cardinals: Rookie didn't pile on the strikeouts down the stretch, nor pitch deep in games.
43. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Braves: Ah, if only defensive runs saved counted here!
44. Jed Lowrie, SS/2B, Athletics: Oakland has multiple offensive weapons. And middle infielders are helpful here.
45. Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Dodgers
46. Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox
47. Omar Infante, 2B, Tigers
48. Jon Jay, OF, Cardinals
49. David Freese, 3B, Cardinals: He has shined in the playoffs before.
50. Lance Lynn, SP, Cardinals
51. Daniel Nava, OF, Red Sox: Underrated statistical season.
52. Chris Johnson, 3B, Braves: Also an underrated season. Nearly won the batting title.
53. Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Red Sox: Certainly hit better in September.
54. Jarrod Parker, SP, Athletics
55. Julio Teheran, SP, Braves
56. Dan Uggla, 2B, Braves
57. Jason Grilli, RP, Pirates
58. Aroldis Chapman, RP, Reds: He will rank better among closers next March, when all teams have 162 games pending. Chapman might not pitch at all this postseason if Reds lose Tuesday.
59. Mike Napoli, C/1B, Red Sox
60. Brian McCann, C, Braves
61. Evan Gattis, C/OF, Braves
62. Michael Wacha, SP/RP, Cardinals
63. Doug Fister, SP, Tigers
64. John Lackey, SP, Red Sox
65. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
66. Fernando Rodney, RP, Rays
67. Francisco Liriano, SP, Pirates
68. Johnny Cueto, SP, Reds
69. Alex Cobb, SP, Rays
70. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays: If only the Rays were guaranteed more than one game, he might be top-5 overall here.
71. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds: Same with this guy. And he’s got to face a nasty lefty Tuesday.
72. Ricky Nolasco, SP, Dodgers: See his September and don’t trust him too much.
73. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds
74. Starling Marte, OF, Pirates
75. Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Reds
76. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Indians
77. Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Rays
78. Wil Myers, OF, Rays
79. Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, Indians
80. Josh Reddick, OF, Athletics
81. Juan Uribe, 3B, Dodgers
82. Danny Salazar, SP, Indians
83. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
84. James Loney, 1B, Rays
85. Justin Morneau, 1B, Pirates
86. Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Indians
87. David Price, SP, Rays
88. Stephen Drew, SS, Red Sox
89. Jose Iglesias, SS, Tigers
90. Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers
91. Sonny Gray, SP, Athletics
92. Mark Ellis, 2B, Dodgers
93. Victor Martinez, C/1B, Tigers
94. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Red Sox
95. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Indians
96. Carlos Santana, C/1B, Indians
97. Michael Bourn, OF, Indians
98. Marlon Byrd, OF, Pirates
99. Michael Brantley, OF, Indians
100. Jhonny Peralta, SS, Tigers

Others: [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Yunel Escobar[/FONT], SS, Rays; [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Jordan Schafer[/FONT], OF, Braves; [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]B.J. Upton[/FONT], OF, Braves;[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Desmond Jennings[/FONT], OF, Rays; [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]A.J. Griffin[/FONT], SP, Athletics; [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Matt Moore[/FONT], SP, Rays; [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Gerrit Cole[/FONT], SP, Pirates; [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]A.J. Burnett[/FONT], SP, Pirates; [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Derek Norris[/FONT], C, Athletics; [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Eric Sogard[/FONT], 2B/SS, Athletics;[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Mark Melancon[/FONT], RP, Pirates
 

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