MLB Fantasy News 2013

HacheMan · Aug 6, 2013

[h=1]Late-season breakout arms?[/h][h=3]Which pitchers could provide owners with a boost over the final weeks?[/h]
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

We're running out of time.

The 2013 fantasy baseball season is approaching its stretch run, the three-quarters pole set to arrive next week, and at this stage many owners might be looking up at a significant gap in the standings, grasping at any last hope of a title run.

Desperate times don't call for desperate measures; they call for lightning in a bottle.

One year ago on this date, Kris Medlen was lightning in a bottle.

At the time, Medlen had made but two big league starts, and was owned in less than 25 percent of ESPN leagues. He had just moved into the Atlanta Braves' rotation, where he was generating some sleeper buzz, but hardly enough to dramatically improve his stock. And in this very space, just 357 days ago, he was picked as one of five "lightning in a bottle" picks, pitchers who at waiver-wire cost possessed the greatest chance of pulling off an epic, championship winning hit streak.

Medlen would, from that day forward, toss nine consecutive quality starts, winning seven games with an 0.81 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 68 strikeouts.

Now, recounting this story isn't designed to be a pat on the back. There were four other picks on that list: Derek Holland, Bud Norris and Jaime Garcia fared well enough, but the fifth, Tyler Skaggs, was a disaster (5.83 ERA, one quality start in six tries). The point is to illustrate that wacky things can happen during small time spans in a given season, and with analysis and a little luck, you can unearth the proper gems to rally you from seemingly certain defeat. At the very least, they're the ones you need to try to find.

Maybe there is no such thing as "this year's Medlen." But ... what if there is?

This isn't to say that anyone profiled here is even close to a sure thing. Heck, the very definition of "lightning in a bottle" players is low odds of success. Their statistical ceilings, however, are considerably higher than similarly regarded players. Picking one could result in an out-of-nowhere fantasy ace ... or you might wind up cutting him in a week, while seeking the next such candidate. There's no shame in that.

Here are the criteria for these "lightning in a bottle" picks: Each one is available in a minimum of 75 percent of ESPN leagues. Each one, too, could be a top-40 starter or a top-20 reliever from this point forward if he catches every single break.

Turner

Jacob Turner, Miami Marlins: If he could only strike out more hitters, fantasy owners might swarm to him in droves. Turner was once considered one of the brightest pitching prospects; he was one of Keith Law's top 30 prospects overall, in both 2011 and 2012. Since reaching the more competitive professional levels, however, Turner's K rate has plummeted, going from 19.0 percent (that a percentage of total batters faced) in Double-A ball to 16.2 percent in Triple-A ball to 16.3 percent thus far in the majors.

That said, Turner has picked up that pace slightly of late, whiffing 18.7 percent of hitters in his past seven starts, and his raw stuff certainly seems to be improving. To that end, his average fastball velocity has increased by a tick, now 92.0 mph this season, compared to 91.2 in his 10 starts in 2012. He has also notched 31 of his 55 K's on curveballs or sliders, opponents batting .207 combined against those two pitches, continuing trends evident in all three of his big league years to date. Perhaps best yet: Turner continues to increase his ground-ball rate, his 47.4 percent number an improvement upon his 44.7 percent rate of 2011-12, another skill that alleviates somewhat the risk of costly hits.

What if Turner, pitching in relative obscurity in Miami, indeed takes that next step, having just recently reached the 25-start career plateau? Wins might always be a problem for him, but a top-40 starter's upside is not out of the question.

Straily

Dan Straily, Oakland Athletics: As a fly-ball pitcher -- his rate is 41.4 percent this season -- "high ceiling" might not be as natural a label for Straily as the rest of the pitchers on this list. He'll always be at risk for untimely home runs, and as a result his ERA might struggle to ever drop beneath three. But at least he calls a more pitching-friendly environment his home: O.co Coliseum.

The Athletics made a bold statement about their rotation hierarchy this past week, when they demoted Tommy Milone, rather than Straily, to the minors thanks to a schedule that facilitated a four-man rotation. Considering that Straily had back-to-back performances with Bill James Game Scores beneath 40 (remember that 50 is a "quality start" by that measure), one might've assumed it would be him. Still, even with those games, he has a 3.34 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and seven quality starts in his past 12 tries. He also has a slider that has limited opponents to .191/.224/.268 triple-slash rates while resulting in 55 of his 109 strikeouts in his big league career. Frankly, it's surprising that he's not whiffing more batters.

Deduno

Samuel Deduno, Minnesota Twins: You might remember this guy as the mastermind of three brilliant pitching performance for the Dominican Republic team in March's World Baseball Classic, including the winning effort in the championship game. What you might not have realized is this: Since June 15, only 12 pitchers have more quality starts than Deduno's seven.

What you probably recall is that Deduno, granted 15 starts by the Twins last summer, walked 53 batters in 79 innings, resulting in an ugly 15.3 percent rate. And those three points sum up the Deduno package: Filthy stuff, poor control of it. Still, his improvement in terms of control warrants mention, as his 9.6 percent walk rate and 3.61 walks-per-nine innings ratio represent his best numbers in any 13-start stretch of his professional career. That Deduno generates such a high rate of ground balls -- 61.0 percent this season -- is another plus. If his control issues are truly behind him, that leaves one more hurdle to clear in order to become a reliable, every-start fantasy pitcher: He needs to recapture the swing-and-miss potential he showed both in the minors and in the WBC.

Kluber

Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians: He never seems to get enough credit for his raw swing-and-miss potential. Kluber's 23.3 percent K rate ranks 21st out of 95 ERA qualifiers, his 25.2 percent miss rate on swings ranks 13th and his 8.56 K's per nine innings ratio ranks 21st. It's also not the first time he has shown this; he had a 19.2 percent K rate and a 25.7 percent miss rate on swings last season and a 9.12 K's per nine ratio during his minor league career. How isn't he regarded as one of the better sources of strikeouts in the game?

But what makes Kluber a pitcher with a surprisingly high rest-of-year ceiling is his team's schedule. Sure, there's a dreaded series at Detroit coming up -- that's a three-game set Aug. 30-Sept. 1 -- but Kluber isn't currently on track to pitch in it. Look at the Indians' schedule the final four weeks of the season: NYM-3, KC-3, @CWS-4, @KC-3, HOU-4, CWS-2, @MIN-4. That's a grand total of 11 games against any of the five more strikeout-prone teams in baseball.

Farquhar

Danny Farquhar, Seattle Mariners: After saves on back-to-back days on Saturday and Sunday, Farquhar looks like the Mariners' closer du jour, an honor previously held by pitchers like Oliver Perez and Yoervis Medina. As such, it might seem easy to be dismissive of his fantasy prospects, especially considering that he's 26 years old, in his fourth different professional organization and was once tossed back and forth between the Toronto Blue Jays and Oakland Athletics three times during a 19-month span. Still, have we all forgotten the Mariners' recent track record of plucking successful closers off the scrap heap? They've done so three times in the past four years: David Aardsma (2009-10), Brandon League (2011) and Tom Wilhelmsen (2012) all saved at least 29 games for them.

Farquhar stands out for one simple reason: The strikeouts. His 36.0 percent rate (that going by total batters faced) is seventh best among relievers with at least 20 appearances, and it represents a substantial improvement upon the 24.1 percent number he had during his professional career entering 2013. So what changed? Simple: Farquhar altered his delivery, going from a mostly-sidearm to mostly-over-the-top motion, and the result was a few extra ticks on his fastball; he has averaged 94.4 mph with the pitch and thrown 18 percent of his fastballs 96 mph or faster. To compare -- granted, small sample caveat -- he averaged 90.6 mph and never reached 92 mph with any of his 30 fastballs thrown in the majors in 2011.

Farquhar might be the sneakiest source of 10-15 more saves out there.

Ramos

A.J. Ramos, Miami Marlins: Closers tend to get snatched up quickly in any fantasy baseball league -- with the exception of the Houston Astros' "finishers," understandably -- so when speculating for saves, one must occasionally take a chance on a setup man with "closer stuff." Ramos isn't currently closing for the Marlins and he might not the rest of the year; but he also has better raw stuff and a more promising future than the incumbent, Steve Cishek, and isn't the future what the 2013 Marlins are all about anyway?

Ramos' command might be questionable, his walk rate 11.1 percent for the season and 10.0 percent in his past 18 appearances, but he's capable of touching 97 mph with his fastball with a filthy slider responsible for 25 K's, 23rd among relievers. That 18-game span is significant for another reason: He has a 0.39 ERA and 0.81 WHIP during that time, and he has pitched multiple innings in seven of those games. In a deep enough league, Ramos should help in ERA, WHIP and K's, and with the right breaks, he could slide right in as a top-20 fantasy closer.

Bradley

Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks recently got Brandon McCarthy back from the disabled list and should soon get Trevor Cahill back, as well, but who's to say that they're not going to need a sixth starter by year's end? They've already received mixed results from Tyler Skaggs, who has four quality starts, a 5.56 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in his 13 starts so far in the majors, and there are already whispers that Bradley might get the call before long.

Bradley is the kind of prospect any fantasy owner should love: He routinely whiffs more than 20 percent of the hitters he faces, thanks to a high-90s fastball and a dominating curveball. He already has a 2.16 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 16 starts for Double-A Mobile, and he has amassed only 124 2/3 innings in the minors for the season. Considering that he threw 140 frames in Class A ball in 2012, and that the Diamondbacks probably can't ask more than 9-10 starts of at best 60-65 innings from him, there's not much of a risk of his facing an innings cap, either.

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[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>	Player	<CENTER>Pos Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk</CENTER>
1	Clayton Kershaw, LAD	SP1	1	76	Gerrit Cole, Pit	SP55	90
2	Felix Hernandez, Sea	SP2	2	77	A.J. Griffin, Oak	SP56	72
3	Max Scherzer, Det	SP3	3	78	Steve Cishek, Mia	RP22	74
4	Yu Darvish, Tex	SP4	5	79	Tony Cingrani, Cin	SP57	82
5	Adam Wainwright, StL	SP5	4	80	Mark Melancon, Pit	RP23	86
6	David Price, TB	SP6	6	81	Tim Lincecum, SF	SP58	79
7	Madison Bumgarner, SF	SP7	8	82	Travis Wood, ChC	SP59	71
8	Stephen Strasburg, Wsh	SP8	9	83	Jim Henderson, Mil	RP24	89
9	Zack Greinke, LAD	SP9	15	84	Ricky Nolasco, LAD	SP60	87
10	Cliff Lee, Phi	SP10	7	85	Brandon Beachy, Atl	SP61	85
11	Matt Harvey, NYM	SP11	10	86	Chris Archer, TB	SP62	84
12	Craig Kimbrel, Atl	RP1	12	87	Zack Wheeler, NYM	SP63	81
13	Jered Weaver, LAA	SP12	13	88	Ian Kennedy, SD	SP64	95
14	Kenley Jansen, LAD	RP2	16	89	Mike Leake, Cin	SP65	76
15	Chris Sale, CWS	SP13	14	90	Bud Norris, Bal	SP66	99
16	Francisco Liriano, Pit	SP14	17	91	Rick Porcello, Det	SP67	102
17	Aroldis Chapman, Cin	RP3	18	92	Rex Brothers, Col	RP25	94
18	Mike Minor, Atl	SP15	22	93	Tommy Milone, Oak	SP68	73
19	Homer Bailey, Cin	SP16	26	94	Corey Kluber, Cle	SP69	104
20	Mat Latos, Cin	SP17	19	95	Jhoulys Chacin, Col	SP70	107
21	Mariano Rivera, NYY	RP4	20	96	Brad Ziegler, Ari	RP26	98
22	Justin Verlander, Det	SP18	21	97	Jeff Locke, Pit	SP71	91
23	Hiroki Kuroda, NYY	SP19	25	98	Felix Doubront, Bos	SP72	111
24	Gio Gonzalez, Wsh	SP20	11	99	Kevin Gregg, ChC	RP27	93
25	Matt Garza, Tex	SP21	23	100	Ryan Dempster, Bos	SP73	97
26	Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh	SP22	27	101	Rafael Betancourt, Col	RP28	103
27	Anibal Sanchez, Det	SP23	28	102	Ivan Nova, NYY	SP74	113
28	Jake Peavy, Bos	SP24	34	103	Scott Kazmir, Cle	SP75	117
29	Greg Holland, KC	RP5	30	104	Ernesto Frieri, LAA	RP29	92
30	Joe Nathan, Tex	RP6	32	105	Edwin Jackson, ChC	SP76	116
31	Cole Hamels, Phi	SP25	24	106	Andrew Cashner, SD	SP77	110
32	Lance Lynn, StL	SP26	36	107	Danny Farquhar, Sea	RP30	NR
33	Fernando Rodney, TB	RP7	35	108	David Robertson, NYY	RP31	100
34	Matt Cain, SF	SP27	39	109	Jorge De La Rosa, Col	SP78	101
35	Patrick Corbin, Ari	SP28	33	110	Randall Delgado, Ari	SP79	122
36	James Shields, KC	SP29	47	111	Dan Haren, Wsh	SP80	138
37	Jeff Samardzija, ChC	SP30	31	112	Ryan Cook, Oak	RP32	106
38	Rafael Soriano, Wsh	RP8	37	113	Jacob Turner, Mia	SP81	108
39	Julio Teheran, Atl	SP31	41	114	Trevor Cahill, Ari	SP82	123
40	Glen Perkins, Min	RP9	40	115	A.J. Ramos, Mia	RP33	124
41	Jose Fernandez, Mia	SP32	43	116	Dan Straily, Oak	SP83	125
42	CC Sabathia, NYY	SP33	29	117	Wei-Yin Chen, Bal	SP84	132
43	Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea	SP34	38	118	Paul Maholm, Atl	SP85	105
44	Jim Johnson, Bal	RP10	44	119	Drew Smyly, Det	RP34	115
45	A.J. Burnett, Pit	SP35	52	120	Trevor Rosenthal, StL	RP35	109
46	Doug Fister, Det	SP36	53	121	Samuel Deduno, Min	SP86	120
47	Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD	SP37	45	122	Jason Grilli, Pit	RP36	127
48	Chris Perez, Cle	RP11	54	123	Jordan Walden, Atl	RP37	130
49	Ervin Santana, KC	SP38	57	124	Alex Wood, Atl	SP87	142
50	Jonathan Papelbon, Phi	RP12	42	125	Jose Veras, Det	RP38	112
51	Shelby Miller, StL	SP39	48	126	Josh Johnson, Tor	SP88	88
52	Edward Mujica, StL	RP13	49	127	Jeremy Hefner, NYM	SP89	114
53	Grant Balfour, Oak	RP14	56	128	Dillon Gee, NYM	SP90	129
54	Sergio Romo, SF	RP15	58	129	Johnny Cueto, Cin	SP91	128
55	Derek Holland, Tex	SP40	63	130	Mark Buehrle, Tor	SP92	137
56	Casey Janssen, Tor	RP16	61	131	Heath Bell, Ari	RP39	139
57	C.J. Wilson, LAA	SP41	50	132	Erasmo Ramirez, Sea	SP93	145
58	Jon Lester, Bos	SP42	55	133	Jenrry Mejia, NYM	SP94	149
59	Kyle Lohse, Mil	SP43	60	134	Eric Stults, SD	SP95	119
60	Jeremy Hellickson, TB	SP44	59	135	Tyler Clippard, Wsh	RP40	121
61	Addison Reed, CWS	RP17	51	136	Yovani Gallardo, Mil	SP96	131
62	Justin Masterson, Cle	SP45	65	137	Brandon McCarthy, Ari	SP97	135
63	Bobby Parnell, NYM	RP18	46	138	Jason Vargas, LAA	SP98	134
64	Alex Cobb, TB	SP46	70	139	Alex Torres, TB	RP41	148
65	Jarrod Parker, Oak	SP47	67	140	Brett Anderson, Oak	SP99	150
66	R.A. Dickey, Tor	SP48	68	141	Chris Capuano, LAD	SP100	NR
67	Matt Moore, TB	SP49	66	142	Wily Peralta, Mil	SP101	141
68	Bartolo Colon, Oak	SP50	64	143	Darren O'Day, Bal	RP42	136
69	Chris Tillman, Bal	SP51	62	144	Jose Cisnero, Hou	RP43	133
70	John Lackey, Bos	SP52	69	145	Miguel Gonzalez, Bal	SP102	126
71	Joaquin Benoit, Det	RP19	77	146	John Axford, Mil	RP44	118
72	Wade Miley, Ari	SP53	78	147	Alexi Ogando, Tex	SP103	147
73	Huston Street, SD	RP20	83	148	Brett Cecil, Tor	RP45	NR
74	Koji Uehara, Bos	RP21	80	149	Jeremy Guthrie, KC	SP104	NR
75	Kris Medlen, Atl	SP54	75	150	Andre Rienzo, CWS	SP104	NR

HacheMan · Aug 7, 2013

[h=1]Late-season breakout bats?[/h][h=3]Which lesser-owned hitters could provide big dividends at the plate?[/h]
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Forget about the impact of the Biogenesis suspensions on the real game for a moment; the impact on fantasy baseball was substantial.

How often do we see this: Two top-five shortstops and one top-15 outfielder (those per our Player Rater) had their seasons effectively wiped out in one fell swoop. In the moment it took for Major League Baseball to announce the 50-game suspensions -- that encompassed the entire remaining regular-season schedule for two and all but three games for the third -- fantasy owners lost three of the 90 most valuable players to date at a critical time in their season.

That's the reality fantasy owners face, as Everth Cabrera (the No. 2 shortstop at the time of his suspension), Jhonny Peralta (No. 5 shortstop) and Nelson Cruz (No. 13 outfielder) are now gone, and their teams -- real and fantasy -- need replacements.

As such, fantasy owners might be seeking out-of-nowhere gems or "lightning in a bottle" picks, if you will, more so this season than any other before it. They need pickups who can perform at a high level unexpectedly.

Following up on Tuesday's "60 Feet 6 Inches" topic, let's nominate the best such candidates for the remainder of the year. This isn't to say that anyone listed below is even close to a sure thing. So, if you're a team in good shape already that merely needs to protect your lead, maybe none of these names are what you need; you might want someone more consistent with a smaller downside.

But these players could give you elite production at the cost of a mere waiver pickup … or they could wind up on your cut list in a week, as you seek the next such candidate. There's no shame in that as a rest-of-the-year strategy, Cabrera, Peralta and/or Cruz owners. Here are the criteria for these "lightning in a bottle" picks: Each one is available in a minimum of 75 percent of ESPN leagues. Every one, too, could be a top-60 hitter from today forward if he catches a couple breaks.

Adams

Matt Adams, St. Louis Cardinals: At-bats are the problem; his skills are not. Sample size comes into play here, but put that aside for a moment. Among players with at least 150 plate appearances this season, Adams' .506 slugging percentage rates in the 91st percentile, his .368 wOBA (weighted on-base average) rates in the 89th percentile and his .239 well-hit average (the percentage of his at-bats that resulted in hard contact) ranks ninth in the majors. Still, despite all that, Adams has garnered just 192 trips to the plate thus far.

There are three obstacles standing in his way: Allen Craig (the Cardinals' starting first baseman in 69 of their 112 games) -- bearing in mind that he can also handle either outfield corner depending on who gets a day off -- Matt Holliday (their left fielder in 90) and Carlos Beltran (their right fielder in 92). Craig made four trips to the disabled list in 2011-12, Holliday recently returned from a DL stint for a hamstring injury and Beltran is 36 years old with a history of knee problems (though no significant ones since 2010). Who's to say that all three will remain healthy for every one of the team's remaining 50 contests?

Adams would become a no-brainer pickup in the event one of those three got hurt, but why wait until that happens? He'd cost substantially more in terms of waiver position or FAAB (free-agent acquisition budget), so keep him stashed if you can.

Rodriguez

Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: Perhaps you've heard of this guy?

So-called "ethics" have nothing to do with your evaluation of Alex Rodriguez's rest-of-2013 fantasy prospects; we are tasked with extracting the best statistics from our players rather than taking ethical stands. Though he faces a 211-game suspension, he is appealing the decision and is eligible to play until a ruling is made, the time frame for which has been reported to be as little as 35 days or as long as into the offseason. To put that into perspective, there are 54 more days on the regular-season calendar, so we're likely to see a lot of A-Rod down the stretch.

In no way should anyone expect Rodriguez to come close to the .300-40-120 annual numbers for which he was once known, but bear in mind that he averaged .274/.357/.444 triple-slash numbers with averages of 25 home runs and 88 RBIs per 162 games played from 2011-12. Among players available in 80 percent or more of ESPN leagues -- approximately the number in which he remains unclaimed -- who else do you see with that much potential through the rest of the year? He'll play nearly every day that he's healthy at either third base or designated hitter, batting in the heart of the order, and surely he's motivated to perform in light of the allegations and criticisms surrounding him.

Davis

Ike Davis, New York Mets: The quick rationale putting him on this list is that, from this date forward last season, he hit 12 home runs, drove in 29 runs and managed a .372 on-base and .534 slugging percentage. The more detailed angle is that Davis, following a short stint in Triple-A Las Vegas to fix his early-season troubles, appears to have adapted a more patient approach at the plate, a plus for a player with so much raw power. After walking in 18.5 percent of his plate appearances with a 76 percent contact rate and hitting seven home runs in seven games for the 51s, he has a 25.0 percent walk rate (15 walks in 60 PAs) and 73 percent contact rate in 18 games since the All-Star break, albeit with only one home run.

Davis hasn't been anywhere near as inept against breaking pitches -- specifically curveballs and sliders -- since his recall, hitting his only home run on a Drew Storen slider (on July 26) and missing on only 13 of his 50 swings against those pitches. Those were similar improvements to those he made when he broke in the latter half of 2012, and they make him well worth the speculative add. This isn't to say he'll hit 12 more home runs … but he certainly could.

Yelich

Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins: He's far from a sure thing, and past lessons have shown us that we shouldn't always expect the most from rookies. But has the pendulum swung too far in that direction? Judging by Yelich's 18.2 ownership percentage in ESPN leagues, perhaps it has.

Remember, today's column is about shooting for the moon, and Yelich's ceiling -- yes, even in the short term -- is high. He'll bat in the top third of the Marlins' lineup practically every day for the remainder of the year, and he has the kind of selectivity, above-average power and speed that might make him quite the fantasy sparkplug. To that end, Yelich's 24 percent chase rate (his swing rate at pitches judged outside the strike zone) is a healthy amount better than the 28 percent major league average, and he averaged 19 home runs and 31 stolen bases per 162 games played during his minor league career.

Arcia

Oswaldo Arcia, Minnesota Twins: He's one of the more powerful bats available in the over-75-percent group of available players and his sweet left-handed swing is one of the rare ones with the ability to clear the high right-field fence at Minnesota's Target Field. In 64 games this season, Arcia has seven home runs, a .418 slugging percentage and .160 isolated power.

At the same time, Arcia is 22 years old and still adapting to the big-league level, and he can fall into bad habits in terms of his plate discipline. His mid-July demotion to Triple-A Rochester was due in large part to a three-game span (July 10-12) during which he struck out 11 times in 14 at-bats. Arcia will need to make more consistent contact to realize his ceiling this season -- I'm more confident that he will in either 2014 or 2015, even if he doesn't in 2013 -- as he has 10 K's in 19 at-bats since his recall. That said, he batted .375/.490/.725 with an 82.5 percent contact rate in his 13 games for Rochester in July, and he's about as strong a risk/reward pickup as there is right now.

Jonathan Villar, Houston Astros: Available in nearly 90 percent of ESPN leagues, Villar is the player I've specifically recommended as a fill-in for Everth Cabrera's owners because of their similar skill sets, easily the most similar among widely available candidates: They're both quick and they both draw walks, which fuels their stolen-base totals. Here's a quick career comparison:

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	<CENTER>Jonathan Villar</CENTER>	<CENTER>Everth Cabrera</CENTER>
	<CENTER>G</CENTER>	<CENTER>BB%</CENTER>	<CENTER>AVG</CENTER>	<CENTER>BABIP</CENTER>	<CENTER>SB</CENTER>	<CENTER>G</CENTER>	<CENTER>BB%</CENTER>	<CENTER>AVG</CENTER>	<CENTER>BABIP</CENTER>	<CENTER>SB</CENTER>
MLB	15	12.3	.245	.406	10	391	9.5	.252	.323	118
Triple-A	91	8.3	.277	.358	31	107	9.5	.308	.378	48

Villar won't hit for as high a batting average as Cabrera, who was batting .283 at the time of his suspension, but he'll get on base via walks a healthy amount. He has a hint more power than Cabrera, and he has shown an extremely aggressive approach on the base paths thus far. Villar has 10 successful steals on 13 tries in 21 opportunities -- as judged by Baseball-Reference.com -- and the argument could be made that he'd have outperformed Cabrera in both home runs and stolen bases from this day forward had Cabrera escaped penalty.

Bogaerts

Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox: Let's first address the potentially massive obstacle standing in his way of a promotion this season -- that's at all this year, not just whether he's recalled in August -- by pointing out that he's not on the Red Sox's 40-man roster, meaning the team risks removing someone from that list and exposing that player to waivers if Bogaerts is summoned. Still, if Bogaerts can help the Red Sox down the stretch and during the postseason, they'll do it. That, coupled with his recent shift from shortstop to third base, is the reason that so many people make Manny Machado comparisons.

Bogaerts will carry shortstop eligibility through the remainder of 2013 in ESPN leagues, however, and that's a significant plus. He's one of the few widely available players who could be a top-10 option at the position, at a time when fantasy baseball has lost two members of that class for the year, and the Red Sox surely wouldn't call him up if they didn't intend to play him every day. He's a .275/.368/.462 hitter in 49 games for Triple-A Pawtucket and has considerably greater upside than anyone the big-league club currently has at third.

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[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<CENTER>#</CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prv Rk</CENTER>	<CENTER>#</CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prv Rk</CENTER>
1	Mike Trout, LAA	OF1	1	76	Billy Butler, KC	1B12	65
2	Miguel Cabrera, Det	3B1	2	77	Matt Carpenter, StL	2B10	72
3	Andrew McCutchen, Pit	OF2	4	78	Brett Gardner, NYY	OF32	75
4	Paul Goldschmidt, Ari	1B1	7	79	Dexter Fowler, Col	OF33	78
5	Robinson Cano, NYY	2B1	3	80	Shane Victorino, Bos	OF34	97
6	Carlos Gomez, Mil	OF3	12	81	Jimmy Rollins, Phi	SS8	90
7	Chris Davis, Bal	1B2	9	82	Pablo Sandoval, SF	3B10	83
8	Edwin Encarnacion, Tor	1B3	10	83	Carl Crawford, LAD	OF35	82
9	Joey Votto, Cin	1B4	11	84	Leonys Martin, Tex	OF36	103
10	Adam Jones, Bal	OF4	13	85	Desmond Jennings, TB	OF37	61
11	Hanley Ramirez, LAD	SS1	8	86	Erick Aybar, LAA	SS9	99
12	Jose Bautista, Tor	OF5	14	87	Colby Rasmus, Tor	OF38	109
13	Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos	OF6	20	88	Aaron Hill, Ari	2B11	84
14	Adrian Beltre, Tex	3B2	22	89	Alfonso Soriano, NYY	OF39	91
15	Evan Longoria, TB	3B3	15	90	Howie Kendrick, LAA	2B12	86
16	Bryce Harper, Wsh	OF7	17	91	Norichika Aoki, Mil	OF40	98
17	Justin Upton, Atl	OF8	35	92	J.J. Hardy, Bal	SS10	93
18	Troy Tulowitzki, Col	SS2	19	93	Coco Crisp, Oak	OF41	92
19	Jose Reyes, Tor	SS3	26	94	David Wright, NYM	3B11	6
20	Freddie Freeman, Atl	1B5	28	95	Adam Dunn, CWS	1B13	106
21	Carlos Gonzalez, Col	OF9	5	96	A.J. Pierzynski, Tex	C8	111
22	Giancarlo Stanton, Mia	OF10	21	97	Starlin Castro, ChC	SS11	94
23	Dustin Pedroia, Bos	2B2	24	98	Mike Napoli, Bos	C9	101
24	Buster Posey, SF	C1	18	99	Alejandro De Aza, CWS	OF42	102
25	Prince Fielder, Det	1B6	16	100	Nick Franklin, Sea	SS12	87
26	Jay Bruce, Cin	OF11	23	101	Matt Kemp, LAD	OF43	100
27	Ian Kinsler, Tex	2B3	25	102	Chase Headley, SD	3B12	104
28	Allen Craig, StL	1B7	32	103	Dan Uggla, Atl	2B13	95
29	David Ortiz, Bos	DH1	31	104	Alexei Ramirez, CWS	SS13	108
30	Jean Segura, Mil	SS4	27	105	Yadier Molina, StL	C10	79
31	Yasiel Puig, LAD	OF12	36	106	Josh Donaldson, Oak	3B13	85
32	Matt Holliday, StL	OF13	39	107	Chris Johnson, Atl	3B14	119
33	Alex Rios, CWS	OF14	37	108	Justin Smoak, Sea	1B14	NR
34	Ian Desmond, Wsh	SS5	33	109	Michael Brantley, Cle	OF44	120
35	Adrian Gonzalez, LAD	1B8	34	110	Matt Wieters, Bal	C11	113
36	Jason Kipnis, Cle	2B4	30	111	Jed Lowrie, Oak	SS14	105
37	Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh	3B4	29	112	Nate McLouth, Bal	OF45	122
38	Jose Altuve, Hou	2B5	42	113	Jason Castro, Hou	C12	121
39	Eric Hosmer, KC	1B9	52	114	Adam LaRoche, Wsh	1B15	116
40	Michael Bourn, Cle	OF15	46	115	B.J. Upton, Atl	OF46	NR
41	Shin-Soo Choo, Cin	OF16	38	116	Andrelton Simmons, Atl	SS15	115
42	Wil Myers, TB	OF17	51	117	Andre Ethier, LAD	OF47	114
43	Carlos Beltran, StL	OF18	44	118	Salvador Perez, KC	C13	107
44	Domonic Brown, Phi	OF19	60	119	Nolan Arenado, Col	3B15	123
45	Curtis Granderson, NYY	OF20	58	120	David Freese, StL	3B16	138
46	Manny Machado, Bal	3B5	47	121	Justin Morneau, Min	1B16	148
47	Pedro Alvarez, Pit	3B6	56	122	Nate Schierholtz, ChC	OF48	127
48	Yoenis Cespedes, Oak	OF21	45	123	Yonder Alonso, SD	1B17	130
49	Ben Zobrist, TB	2B6	53	124	Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Bos	C14	124
50	Josh Hamilton, LAA	OF22	48	125	Rajai Davis, Tor	OF49	150
51	Michael Cuddyer, Col	OF23	41	126	Aramis Ramirez, Mil	3B17	143
52	Brandon Phillips, Cin	2B7	54	127	Ichiro Suzuki, NYY	OF50	128
53	Elvis Andrus, Tex	SS6	64	128	Russell Martin, Pit	C15	135
54	Starling Marte, Pit	OF24	55	129	Mike Moustakas, KC	3B18	NR
55	Austin Jackson, Det	OF25	40	130	Nick Markakis, Bal	OF51	118
56	Carlos Santana, Cle	C2	59	131	Michael Saunders, Sea	OF52	NR
57	Jason Heyward, Atl	OF26	62	132	Anthony Rendon, Wsh	2B14	136
58	Daniel Murphy, NYM	2B8	68	133	Brandon Belt, SF	1B18	132
59	Hunter Pence, SF	OF27	66	134	Jonathan Villar, Hou	SS16	NR
60	Chase Utley, Phi	2B9	76	135	Alex Rodriguez, NYY	3B19	NR
61	Torii Hunter, Det	OF28	70	136	Christian Yelich, Mia	1B19	NR
62	Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle	SS7	50	137	Stephen Drew, Bos	SS17	146
63	Joe Mauer, Min	C3	63	138	Jedd Gyorko, SD	2B15	131
64	Kendrys Morales, Sea	1B10	88	139	Michael Young, Phi	3B20	NR
65	Victor Martinez, Det	C4	69	140	Michael Morse, Sea	OF53	125
66	Jonathan Lucroy, Mil	C5	71	141	Rickie Weeks, Mil	2B16	126
67	Kyle Seager, Sea	3B7	81	142	Neil Walker, Pit	2B17	NR
68	Mark Trumbo, LAA	OF29	77	143	Evan Gattis, Atl	C16	142
69	Alex Gordon, KC	OF30	57	144	Josh Reddick, Oak	OF54	112
70	Brian McCann, Atl	C6	73	145	Brandon Moss, Oak	1B20	134
71	Jayson Werth, Wsh	OF31	74	146	Eric Young Jr., NYM	OF55	NR
72	Martin Prado, Ari	3B8	80	147	Adam Lind, Tor	1B21	110
73	Brett Lawrie, Tor	3B9	96	148	Logan Morrison, Mia	1B22	144
74	Anthony Rizzo, ChC	1B11	89	149	Junior Lake, ChC	SS18	147
75	Wilin Rosario, Col	C7	67	150	Alex Avila, Det	C17	NR

HacheMan · Aug 7, 2013

Late-season fantasy strategy

By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

Hall of Fame basketball coach Red Auerbach, the architect of one of the most successful runs in professional sports history, used to preach that it's not who starts the game that matters, but who finishes it. Of course, Auerbach was probably justifying his method of bringing stars such as Frank Ramsey and John Havlicek off the bench … but he may as well have been talking about the past eight or so weeks of the fantasy baseball season. That's right, it's time to finish what we started way back in March. It's time to take home that league championship.

Today we'll review some tactics designed to increase your chances of winning your league. We'll begin with general principles that can be applied across all formats. Following that, we'll hone in on format-specific advice so no one will be left out.

[h=3]General winning tactics[/h]
<OFFER>Continue to focus on the round horsehide; don't get distracted by the oblong pigskin. There's plenty of time to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. You've worked too hard the past four months to let it go to waste. That said, there will be owners in your league that turn their attention elsewhere. This presents an opportunity to take advantage of their laze by working harder and beating them to the waiver wire for emerging talent. Use all the available tools at ESPN Fantasy to aid in your organization and facilitate multitasking.</OFFER>

Make up deficient pitching starts or innings sooner than later. If your league caps games started or innings and you're pacing well below the maximum, it's best to catch up in August as opposed to scrambling in September when everyone else is also battling to reach the limit. Your choices are much better now than they will be after rosters expand and when lesser pitchers get early 2014 auditions. However, don't use up all your starts or innings since the hitting will also be weaker in the last month of the season. You want to be able to take advantage of the watered-down lineups by deploying above-average pitchers and not mitigate that edge with marginal hurlers. The best way to plan is by assuming five starts per pitcher in September. If you have five trustworthy arms, then make sure you end August with 25 remaining starts. If your league uses an innings cap, assume an average of between six and seven frames per starts, meaning you need about 150-175 remaining innings come Aug. 31, plus whatever you need for relievers. Excess starts or innings will have to be filled by whoever you can scour off the waiver wire, though you'll likely have to fight league mates for their services.

When looking for waiver-wire help, sort by stats from the past 2-3 weeks. With so much going on, it's difficult to stay on top of every team's current batting order. Often a hitter playing full-time slips through the cracks. By sorting by at-bats over the previous 14-21 days, you're less likely to miss someone. At this point of the season, the single most important hitting statistic to track is at-bats. There's so much variance in performance over such a small sample that opportunity trumps skill. Don't evaluate the player by the reputation associated with the name. Instead, focus on the opportunity. Regardless of the format, you want at-bats.

Similarly, pitchers should be sorted by innings over the past 2-3 weeks. Not only will you identify hidden gems, but you can weed out pitchers whose stats are dragged down by a poor or even unlucky beginning to the season. That is, if you sort by ERA or WHIP, you may ignore some starters whose numbers include a few ugly starts. For example, astute owners that looked past the ERAs of Corey Kluber and Felix Doubront a few weeks back are reaping the benefits. On May 26, Kluber was sporting an 4.57 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP. Since that time, he has spun a 3.31 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Doubront's case is even more extreme; he was sitting at 4.91/1.62 on June 13 but has posted a 2.02 ERA and 1.09 WHIP since.

If you sorted on total innings, Kluber's and Doubront's seasonal ERAs would have turned you away, but if you caught a slice of their improvement, you could have put a large chunk of their superior outings on your ledger. Some potentially available pitchers whose ERA may not be reflective of their current performance level are Roberto Hernandez, Rick Porcello, Dan Straily and Dillon Gee.

Beware of players who may have their seasons end prematurely: It has been well-publicized that Matt Harvey will be capped at about 215 innings, which will cost him two, perhaps three starts. Other notable starters with impending innings caps are Shelby Miller, Julio Teheran, Jose Fernandez, Chris Archer, Jacob Turner and Tony Cingrani. Another class of players to be cognizant of are those playing through injury on non-playoff teams. If Colorado continues to slide, Carlos Gonzalez may be shut down to allow his thumb to heal. Similarly, Troy Tulowitzki may opt to call it a season a bit early. Other possibilities are Toronto's Jose Reyes and Brett Lawrie, San Francisco's Pablo Sandoval and Milwaukee's Rickie Weeks. This is not to say you should sell for 75 cents on the dollar, but have a contingency plan in place, especially in head-to-head leagues.

[h=3]League-specific tactics[/h]
Head-to-head points

The most common misconception in this type of league setup is that you must fortify a category or position at the expense of another. For instance, an owner may look to trade a good hitter to improve pitching or deal an outfielder to upgrade at shortstop. This is fine, provided you aren't robbing from Peter to pay Paul. Points are points; it doesn't matter where they come from. If you deal a 100-point outfielder for a 110-point pitcher, on the surface this looks like a win. But if the 110-point pitcher replaces a 40-point guy and you backfill your outfield with a 20-point guy, the net result is losing 10 points. Deal from excess, not perceived strength. Maybe you have Curtis Granderson coming off the DL. You can actually deal a better outfielder for a lesser pitcher so long as the difference between Granderson and the outfielder you deal is less than the difference between your new pitcher and the one you replace. In other words, it's Granderson plus the new pitcher versus your current outfielder and pitcher.

Head-to-head categories

Chances are you entered your draft or auction with a particular strategy in mind. Perhaps you sought balance in an effort to compete across the board. Maybe you constructed your roster to sacrifice a category or two while greatly increasing your likelihood of carrying the others. A 7-3 win is still a win. The playoffs are nearing, so it's time to objectively examine your team as presently constituted and decide if you can compete against the other probable playoff teams. You chose players to fit your plan, did they pan out? Did you happen upon a free agent or two, rendering your team stronger in a category you intended to ignore? If so, with some embellishment, you can now compete there. How does your pitching stack up against the rest? Do you have an excess of closers? Are you going to lose saves against most opponents, rendering your closers useless? What about steals; should you look to acquire another speedster or perhaps deal one? Now is the time to massage your roster so you have the best opportunity to match up against the other playoff teams.

Traditional rotisserie leagues

Throw perceived value out the window; it's all about the categories. Ignore what the ESPN Player Rater says or where your guy sits in our second-half rankings and just focus on the stats. Look for categories where you are at the bottom of tightly distributed teams and target these stats since you have the greatest number of points to gain.

Identify the categories in which the distance to the next team is substantial and look to replace a player whose specialty is that category, even if their value on paper exceeds that of their replacement. For example, Michael Bourn and Rajai Davis may be stealing bases left and right, but if you're likely to gain only one point in the category, perhaps dealing your speedster to fortify multiple other spots will lead to more points. This is actually one of the better types of deals to pursue since you can use the Player Rater to your advantage. Bourn may be ranked higher than Mark Trumbo, but Trumbo's power may yield more roto points in homers and RBIs than you lose in steals after dealing Bourn. Marco Scutaro's average may be a lot higher than Brian Dozier's, but if you have a cushion in batting average and need counting stats, the lower-ranked Dozier is your man.

With the disclaimer that -- contrary to popular belief -- there is as much, if not more, movement within batting average, ERA and WHIP as there is in the cumulative categories, now is the time to decide if you have the pitching staff to compete across the board or switch to an extreme strategy. The key is deciding whether you can maintain competitive ratios while continuing to pile up strikeouts and chase wins. Hopefully you can, but in the event that you feel your ratios are in peril, consider ignoring them while focusing on wins, strikeouts and saves. The advantage you have is that you'll be looking to pick up Tyler Chatwood and Jeremy Guthrie, so there won't be much competition for them. In addition, you can deal whatever solid starter(s) you have left to fortify saves and hitting. You reduce your margin of error and, thus, your chance to win, but you will be maximizing your roto points and letting the chips fall where they may.

The other option is bagging wins and whiffs in lieu of maintaining a strong ERA and WHIP by replacing your volatile starters with stable relievers. Again, there will be little in the way of picking up Trevor Rosenthal and Junichi Tazawa.

Keeper and dynasty leagues

While this may not be a textbook definition, I consider "keeper" leagues to have a player pool with significant turnover and "dynasty" leagues to have teams that keep the majority of their players from year to year. Truth be told, many leagues are a keeper/dynasty hybrid, which makes one-size-fits-all advice difficult. Just keep in mind this is all contextual and you need to frame it within the dynamics of your specific setup.

The primary difference when it comes to advice between the two variants is that in true keeper leagues, your attention should be strictly focused on either winning this season or building a championship foundation, not both. If you attempt to pull them both off, you usually end up falling short in both endeavors: you don't win and enter next year with a middle of the road set of freezes. In dynasty leagues, since there is minimal help at the draft or auction, you need to retain a solid foundation from season to season, making additions at the fringes to fortify your title run.

The exception to going all-in with keeper formats is if you own a cornerstone player at a very low price, perhaps as a result of a minor league draft or pickup. In order to deal a dirt-cheap Mike Trout, you need to be virtually assured of winning. We're talking about needing a catastrophic collapse unforeseen by any mortal human being to get in the way. After Trout, the degree of the necessary collapse lessens. The point being, in most leagues, owning an underpriced Trout will keep you in the running in future seasons, so if you fall short, your chances next season are not diminished via a weaker keeper list.

That said, only one team owns Trout. Most have to weigh the benefit of winning (flags fly forever!) versus sustaining a lengthy run where you're in the thick of it every season.

If you still are of the mind to play both sides of the coin, recall this: Last season the Washington Nationals entered the playoffs short-handed. Where did that get them last year and this? Just some food for thought.

HacheMan · Aug 7, 2013

No timetable on Hanley Ramirez

By Arash Markazi | ESPNLosAngeles.com

ST. LOUIS -- Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez did not play Tuesday after jamming his right shoulder Sunday, but Dodgers manager Don Mattingly didn't think he would be sidelined long.
"He looked really good again today, even better than yesterday," Mattingly said. "So it's still encouraging. There are no plans for an MRI. As long as he keeps going forward like this there won't be an MRI. If he stalls and all of a sudden is not getting any better and seems to be stuck somewhere, we'll do it."

Mattingly didn't have a timetable on a return for Ramirez, who went through a workout before Tuesday's game. Ramirez said he felt good after going through a workout Monday night.
"I feel better," Ramirez said. "My range of motion is better. It's way better than yesterday, but it's day-to-day right now."
Mattingly agreed that Ramirez's injury was day-to-day and didn't rule him out returning within the week.
"We're basing a lot of this off of how he's feeling and how he's moving his arm," Mattingly said. "His range of motion has gotten a lot better. He had a similar injury in the Dominican Republic and he feels like it's the same thing and that this feels better than that. As long as he doesn't stall and continues to get more range of motion with his arm, we'll keep going with this."
Matt Kemp, who has been on the disabled list with a left ankle sprain since July 22, was moving around the clubhouse Tuesday without a walking boot and was able to hit the ball off a tee as well as catch and throw with teammates during batting practice. Mattingly didn't have a timetable for Kemp's return either but said it was good to see Kemp's progress moving in the right direction.
"He's been doing some tee work without the boot," Mattingly said. "He's been throwing without the boot. He did all that yesterday and he did it again today, which was key because he was able to bounce back today and not go backward. He's got his ankle wrapped in a regular kind of ankle brace. He's moving. I don't know how far he's down the road but at least it's going in the right direction. It's not going backward."

HacheMan · Aug 8, 2013

Consistency Ratings: Through July

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

What has happened to the mighty Prince Fielder?

Nestled nicely between Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez as the No. 4 hitter for the No. 1-advertised-in-the-preseason Detroit Tigers offense, coming off a season during which he set personal bests with a .313 batting average and 85.5 percent contact rate and beginning the 2013 campaign at the ripe age of 28, Fielder appeared primed for a monstrous year. He had also banked considerable trust of his fantasy owners for his track record of weekly reliability; his 87.5 percent Consistency Rating in 2012 was second best only to teammate Miguel Cabrera.

With nearly 70 percent of the Tigers' 2013 regular-season games in the books, however, Fielder is in the midst of arguably his worst big league campaign. His stats make that case: He is on track to set career lows in batting average (.259), slugging percentage (.432), weighted on-base average (.344) and wins above replacement (0.8); those among full-time campaigns.

More disturbingly, the previously consistent Fielder has morphed into a player who is anything but. As you'll see in the chart below, he has warranted starting in ESPN standard Rotisserie leagues less than half the time this season (47.1 percent Consistency Rating), and unlike last year, when he was a "Stud" five times and "Stiff" once -- lower numbers in both categories, again, representing a more consistent week-to-week level of production -- he has five Stud and seven Stiff weeks.

Fielder's struggles reside in the realm of the inexplicable. Specifically, he has gone from being one of the best fastball hitters in the game to one who is below average. Normally, depending upon fastball velocity, that might be a product of declining bat speed, but breaking down his performance doesn't support the argument:

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>

	<CENTER>2012</CENTER>	<CENTER>2013</CENTER>
	<CENTER>AVG</CENTER>	<CENTER>SLG</CENTER>	<CENTER>K%</CENTER>	<CENTER>wOBA</CENTER>	<CENTER>AVG</CENTER>	<CENTER>SLG</CENTER>	<CENTER>K%</CENTER>	<CENTER>wOBA</CENTER>
All fastballs	.348	.542	4.1%	.433	.230	.399	15.9%	.328
Fastballs 90 mph or less	.395	.671	1.1%	.492	.211	.368	5.9%	.311
Fastballs 94 mph and up	.351	.405	4.5%	.401	.246	.369	21.5%	.345

It's that "Fastballs 90 mph or less" that stands out. Could this be a mere one-year blip? That's a fair guess, and the fact remains that Fielder is in no less attractive circumstances for fantasy for the upcoming month-plus than he was during the preseason. Frustrating as his struggles have been, his career-long track record of consistency should earn him more credit with his owners. Temper your expectations somewhat, but not to the point where Fielder shouldn't be ranked among the top 10 players at his position going forward.

Why risk-taking matters more this year: Devastating injuries, coupled with the recent Biogenesis suspensions, have cost the fantasy baseball world many of the higher-ranked players in the Consistency Ratings chart at column's end. To wit, David Wright, the No. 2-ranked player (88.2 percent), and Carlos Gonzalez, whose 82.4 percent rating places him among the 13 best, are now on the disabled list, as is Jason Grilli, one of eight players to have been a Stud nine times in 2013. Meanwhile, Nelson Cruz, who like Gonzalez has an 82.4 percent rating, and Everth Cabrera, whose 76.5 percent rating rates him among the top 23, are out for the regular season after having accepted 50-game suspensions.

That means five of the 23 most consistent players have been lost entirely, at least for the next few weeks, and it leaves their owners scrambling for replacements. This was largely the idea behind this week's "60 Feet 6 Inches" and "Hit Parade" columns -- those targeting "lightning in a bottle" picks -- and I'll toss a new name onto one of those lists, in light of Corey Kluber's injury: Danny Salazar, who struck out 10 Tigers on Wednesday, including Miguel Cabrera three times.

The red-hot Eric Hosmer: Astute fantasy owners might notice that Hosmer has surged ahead of the aforementioned Fielder in terms of his Consistency Rating, his 58.8 percent number placing him 13th among first base-eligible players and 10th among pure first basemen. Hosmer has done so by scoring eight consecutive "Starts" in points-based and eight in his past nine in Rotisserie-based scoring, thanks to .323/.360/.532 triple-slash rates, 11 home runs, 36 RBIs and five stolen bases in 57 games in the past eight weeks. Hosmer's seasonal totals might not be eye-popping, but it's his consistent level of production since the beginning of June that should earn him a permanent spot in any contender's lineup.

The true "hot bat": Hosmer hasn't been the most consistently successful performer since June, however. Of the four players to be a perfect 8-for-8 in terms of Starts during that span is ... Pittsburgh Pirates slugger Pedro Alvarez.

Surprised? Believe it, as in addition to that feat, Alvarez has but two Stud weeks, meaning this previously streaky slugger has settled in nicely as one of the most consistent players of the past two months. Remarkably, the improvement has nothing to do with his boosting his contact rate; he has whiffed in 31.6 percent of his at-bats and has a 65.1 percent contact rate during the past eight weeks, those actually no better than his career rates of 31.1 and 65.4 percent. Still, Alvarez has .270/.329/.545 triple-slash rates, 16 home runs and 43 RBIs in 55 games during that span, which should earn him much more credit in fantasy leagues.

[h=3]Consistency Ratings: 2013 Weeks 1-17[/h]
Players are initially ranked in order of their Consistency Rating in Rotisserie leagues (Roto%), calculated as the percentage of the season's 17 weeks -- not weeks the player played, but total weeks on the MLB schedule -- in which his Player Rater standing registered a "Start" score. All categories are sortable both ascending and descending; just click on the headers to sort. Players must have a Consistency Rating of 50 percent or greater in either Rotisserie or points-based formats in order to be included on the chart.

"Start," "Stud" and "Stiff" scores are for Rotisserie scoring formats.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>

Player	<CENTER>Team</CENTER>	<CENTER>Roto CR</CENTER>	<CENTER>Points CR</CENTER>	<CENTER>FPTS</CENTER>	<CENTER>Player Rater</CENTER>	<CENTER>Start</CENTER>	<CENTER>Stud</CENTER>	<CENTER>Stiff</CENTER>	<CENTER>Sat</CENTER>
Miguel Cabrera	Det	94.1%	94.1%	500	1	16	10	1	0
Mike Trout	LAA	82.4%	94.1%	469	2	14	9	1	0
Paul Goldschmidt	Ari	82.4%	94.1%	454	5	14	9	2	0
Mark Trumbo	LAA	76.5%	94.1%	370	88	13	3	1	0
Allen Craig	StL	76.5%	94.1%	370	30	13	5	1	0
Joey Votto	Cin	70.6%	94.1%	424	25	12	4	1	0
Chris Davis	Bal	82.4%	88.2%	492	3	14	10	3	0
Edwin Encarnacion	Tor	82.4%	88.2%	444	14	14	5	2	0
Adam Jones	Bal	82.4%	88.2%	404	9	14	9	0	0
Nelson Cruz	Tex	82.4%	88.2%	373	38	14	6	1	0
Anthony Rizzo	ChC	58.8%	88.2%	356	133	10	2	4	0
David Wright	NYM	88.2%	82.4%	388	19	15	6	2	0
Andrew McCutchen	Pit	82.4%	82.4%	397	6	14	9	1	0
Dustin Pedroia	Bos	82.4%	82.4%	377	35	14	6	2	0
Madison Bumgarner	SF	76.5%	82.4%	381	24	13	6	1	0
Jose Bautista	Tor	70.6%	82.4%	403	31	12	7	1	0
Jay Bruce	Cin	70.6%	82.4%	392	34	12	6	1	0
Robinson Cano	NYY	70.6%	82.4%	386	33	12	6	3	0
Matt Carpenter	StL	70.6%	82.4%	376	61	12	3	5	0
Shin-Soo Choo	Cin	70.6%	82.4%	367	51	12	5	1	0
Jacoby Ellsbury	Bos	70.6%	82.4%	367	8	12	8	1	0
Hunter Pence	SF	70.6%	82.4%	349	42	12	6	1	0
Michael Cuddyer	Col	70.6%	82.4%	349	28	12	5	2	1
Felix Hernandez	Sea	64.7%	82.4%	431	21	11	8	3	0
Kyle Seager	Sea	64.7%	82.4%	368	52	11	4	3	0
Jhonny Peralta	Det	64.7%	82.4%	322	95	11	4	2	0
Ben Zobrist	TB	58.8%	82.4%	329	118	10	2	2	0
Prince Fielder	Det	47.1%	82.4%	371	98	8	4	7	0
Jean Segura	Mil	82.4%	76.5%	348	11	14	8	1	0
Max Scherzer	Det	76.5%	76.5%	463	12	13	6	2	0
Pedro Alvarez	Pit	76.5%	76.5%	334	97	13	3	3	0
Adam Wainwright	StL	70.6%	76.5%	419	17	12	7	2	0
Carlos Beltran	StL	70.6%	76.5%	335	41	12	4	1	0
Daniel Murphy	NYM	70.6%	76.5%	332	70	12	6	3	0
Brandon Phillips	Cin	70.6%	76.5%	331	107	12	4	3	0
Howie Kendrick	LAA	70.6%	76.5%	305	96	12	3	3	0
Patrick Corbin	Ari	64.7%	76.5%	394	23	11	5	2	0
Hisashi Iwakuma	Sea	64.7%	76.5%	375	29	11	5	1	0
Manny Machado	Bal	64.7%	76.5%	355	63	11	3	2	0
Freddie Freeman	Atl	64.7%	76.5%	355	43	11	4	1	2
Kendrys Morales	Sea	64.7%	76.5%	343	69	11	3	4	0
Desmond Jennings	TB	64.7%	76.5%	335	81	11	3	0	0
Alejandro De Aza	CWS	64.7%	76.5%	329	64	11	3	1	0
Albert Pujols	LAA	64.7%	76.5%	323	138	11	0	4	1
David Ortiz	Bos	52.9%	76.5%	380	18	9	6	1	2
Evan Longoria	TB	47.1%	76.5%	374	71	8	5	5	0
Carlos Gonzalez	Col	82.4%	70.6%	432	4	14	9	1	0
Joe Nathan	Tex	82.4%	70.6%	295	39	14	5	1	0
Ian Desmond	Wsh	76.5%	70.6%	339	56	13	4	3	0
Everth Cabrera	SD	76.5%	70.6%	296	32	13	6	2	2
Yu Darvish	Tex	70.6%	70.6%	405	20	12	8	1	1
Jason Kipnis	Cle	70.6%	70.6%	378	16	12	7	3	0
Jordan Zimmermann	Wsh	70.6%	70.6%	330	50	12	6	3	0
Yadier Molina	StL	70.6%	70.6%	296	89	12	2	3	0
Adrian Beltre	Tex	64.7%	70.6%	381	15	11	5	4	0
Torii Hunter	Det	64.7%	70.6%	338	55	11	5	4	0
Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	64.7%	70.6%	320	45	11	3	3	0
Alfonso Soriano	NYY	64.7%	70.6%	308	74	11	4	4	0
Alex Gordon	KC	58.8%	70.6%	324	123	10	3	5	0
Brett Gardner	NYY	58.8%	70.6%	305	94	10	3	3	0
Jayson Werth	Wsh	58.8%	70.6%	273	75	10	3	1	4
Carlos Santana	Cle	52.9%	70.6%	318	182	9	2	6	0
Nick Markakis	Bal	52.9%	70.6%	313	164	9	2	3	0
Dan Uggla	Atl	41.2%	70.6%	315	292	7	5	6	0
Matt Holliday	StL	76.5%	64.7%	328	80	13	4	3	0
Craig Kimbrel	Atl	76.5%	64.7%	315	27	13	6	2	0
Alex Rios	CWS	70.6%	64.7%	331	26	12	5	2	0
Mike Minor	Atl	64.7%	64.7%	363	36	11	6	3	0
Colby Rasmus	Tor	64.7%	64.7%	321	125	11	3	5	0
J.J. Hardy	Bal	64.7%	64.7%	304	147	11	2	5	0
Greg Holland	KC	64.7%	64.7%	291	47	11	6	3	0
Daniel Nava	Bos	64.7%	64.7%	285	163	11	0	5	0
Josh Donaldson	Oak	58.8%	64.7%	357	65	10	3	5	0
Adam Dunn	CWS	58.8%	64.7%	339	130	10	2	6	0
Starling Marte	Pit	58.8%	64.7%	336	22	10	7	2	0
Adrian Gonzalez	LAD	58.8%	64.7%	336	82	10	3	5	0
Lance Lynn	StL	58.8%	64.7%	314	106	10	6	5	0
Eric Hosmer	KC	58.8%	64.7%	314	58	10	2	6	0
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	52.9%	64.7%	471	7	9	8	3	0
Justin Upton	Atl	52.9%	64.7%	370	40	9	6	5	0
Troy Tulowitzki	Col	52.9%	64.7%	315	57	9	6	2	3
Michael Brantley	Cle	52.9%	64.7%	291	93	9	5	3	0
Adam LaRoche	Wsh	52.9%	64.7%	290	221	9	1	5	0
Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	52.9%	64.7%	284	139	9	4	5	0
Gio Gonzalez	Wsh	52.9%	64.7%	282	151	9	2	3	0
Ian Kinsler	Tex	52.9%	64.7%	269	154	9	6	3	3
Mike Napoli	Bos	47.1%	64.7%	337	156	8	3	7	0
Jose Fernandez	Mia	47.1%	64.7%	335	44	8	4	4	0
Justin Morneau	Min	41.2%	64.7%	297	185	7	1	6	0
Alexei Ramirez	CWS	64.7%	58.8%	255	101	11	1	3	0
Matt Harvey	NYM	58.8%	58.8%	442	10	10	6	2	0
Carlos Gomez	Mil	58.8%	58.8%	366	13	10	7	2	0
Domonic Brown	Phi	58.8%	58.8%	350	37	10	5	3	1
Bartolo Colon	Oak	58.8%	58.8%	329	67	10	3	5	0
Mat Latos	Cin	58.8%	58.8%	308	100	10	3	4	0
Marlon Byrd	NYM	58.8%	58.8%	306	108	10	2	1	0
Shelby Miller	StL	58.8%	58.8%	301	68	10	3	3	0
Francisco Liriano	Pit	58.8%	58.8%	290	60	10	4	1	5
Mariano Rivera	NYY	58.8%	58.8%	276	62	10	8	2	0
Clay Buchholz	Bos	58.8%	58.8%	261	83	10	2	0	7
Justin Masterson	Cle	52.9%	58.8%	363	49	9	5	5	0
Buster Posey	SF	52.9%	58.8%	332	86	9	5	6	0
Ervin Santana	KC	52.9%	58.8%	322	73	9	2	1	1
Josh Hamilton	LAA	52.9%	58.8%	297	258	9	4	4	0
Dexter Fowler	Col	52.9%	58.8%	293	110	9	4	3	1
Brandon Belt	SF	52.9%	58.8%	268	188	9	0	4	0
Derek Holland	Tex	47.1%	58.8%	327	103	8	6	4	0
Ryan Zimmerman	Wsh	47.1%	58.8%	303	149	8	3	5	1
James Loney	TB	47.1%	58.8%	292	120	8	2	5	0
Matt Wieters	Bal	47.1%	58.8%	280	252	8	0	5	0
Matt Cain	SF	47.1%	58.8%	233	197	8	2	5	0
Joe Mauer	Min	41.2%	58.8%	326	131	7	3	8	0
Billy Butler	KC	41.2%	58.8%	296	213	7	2	8	0
Austin Jackson	Det	41.2%	58.8%	257	204	7	2	2	4
Cole Hamels	Phi	41.2%	58.8%	224	209	7	4	7	0
Jason Castro	Hou	35.3%	58.8%	284	193	6	1	8	0
Chase Headley	SD	35.3%	58.8%	270	316	6	0	5	2
Nate McLouth	Bal	76.5%	52.9%	296	53	13	2	1	0
Jim Johnson	Bal	70.6%	52.9%	254	78	12	8	2	0
Grant Balfour	Oak	64.7%	52.9%	254	91	11	5	3	0
Ernesto Frieri	LAA	64.7%	52.9%	210	227	11	2	5	0
Jason Grilli	Pit	58.8%	52.9%	277	77	10	9	2	1
Jose Altuve	Hou	58.8%	52.9%	271	66	10	6	4	0
Glen Perkins	Min	58.8%	52.9%	270	76	10	5	1	0
Justin Verlander	Det	58.8%	52.9%	257	153	10	3	5	0
Addison Reed	CWS	58.8%	52.9%	246	104	10	4	4	0
Michael Bourn	Cle	58.8%	52.9%	239	134	10	3	0	3
Victor Martinez	Det	52.9%	52.9%	305	168	9	4	7	0
Matt Moore	TB	52.9%	52.9%	293	99	9	5	5	1
Elvis Andrus	Tex	52.9%	52.9%	281	72	9	3	3	0
Jimmy Rollins	Phi	52.9%	52.9%	266	206	9	1	2	0
Ryan Braun	Mil	52.9%	52.9%	206	229	9	1	1	5
Kyle Kendrick	Phi	52.9%	52.9%	184	294	9	3	7	0
Cliff Lee	Phi	47.1%	52.9%	353	48	8	6	5	0
C.J. Wilson	LAA	47.1%	52.9%	294	142	8	3	4	0
Yoenis Cespedes	Oak	47.1%	52.9%	287	183	8	3	2	1
Gerardo Parra	Ari	47.1%	52.9%	284	205	8	3	5	0
Martin Prado	Ari	47.1%	52.9%	282	173	8	3	7	0
Doug Fister	Det	47.1%	52.9%	279	126	8	3	4	0
Starlin Castro	ChC	47.1%	52.9%	263	299	8	3	6	0
Pablo Sandoval	SF	47.1%	52.9%	251	280	8	0	6	2
Asdrubal Cabrera	Cle	47.1%	52.9%	250	261	8	4	5	2
Brandon Crawford	SF	47.1%	52.9%	246	295	8	4	7	0
Jhoulys Chacin	Col	47.1%	52.9%	242	157	8	2	6	1
Felix Doubront	Bos	47.1%	52.9%	231	234	8	1	6	1
Jake Peavy	Bos	47.1%	52.9%	192	199	8	2	2	6
Andrelton Simmons	Atl	41.2%	52.9%	288	215	7	1	3	0
James Shields	KC	41.2%	52.9%	287	174	7	1	4	0
Norichika Aoki	Mil	41.2%	52.9%	272	112	7	3	4	0
Chase Utley	Phi	41.2%	52.9%	270	122	7	3	3	3
Travis Wood	ChC	41.2%	52.9%	257	119	7	2	3	0
Brian Dozier	Min	41.2%	52.9%	255	207	7	2	6	0
Jon Lester	Bos	41.2%	52.9%	235	275	7	3	8	0
John Lackey	Bos	41.2%	52.9%	234	155	7	3	4	2
Rick Porcello	Det	41.2%	52.9%	194	273	7	2	6	0
Chris Carter	Hou	35.3%	52.9%	293	283	6	3	8	0
Zack Cozart	Cin	35.3%	52.9%	258	322	6	1	7	0
Erick Aybar	LAA	35.3%	52.9%	230	192	6	2	3	2
Michael Young	Phi	29.4%	52.9%	266	262	5	0	7	0
Denard Span	Wsh	29.4%	52.9%	264	274	5	1	5	0
Mark Buehrle	Tor	29.4%	52.9%	200	337	5	2	7	0
Dillon Gee	NYM	29.4%	52.9%	196	302	5	1	6	0
Bobby Parnell	NYM	64.7%	47.1%	230	84	11	2	3	0
Kevin Gregg	ChC	58.8%	47.1%	181	190	10	3	5	2
Chris Sale	CWS	52.9%	47.1%	316	46	9	5	3	1
Raul Ibanez	Sea	52.9%	47.1%	296	144	9	3	7	0
Coco Crisp	Oak	52.9%	47.1%	288	136	9	5	5	1
A.J. Burnett	Pit	52.9%	47.1%	285	121	9	3	2	3
Edward Mujica	StL	52.9%	47.1%	276	54	9	6	3	0

HacheMan · Aug 8, 2013

Rick Porcello poised to break out

By Mike Sheets | Special to ESPN.com

In a 10-team ESPN standard league, an average starting lineup consists of six or seven starting pitchers. This means that, in an average league, roughly 65 to 70 starting pitchers are started each week in weekly formats, and slightly more than that are owned all together (a standard ESPN league consists of only three bench spots). In other words, a guy who ranks 84th on the ESPN Player Rater among starting pitchers is unlikely to generate much interest. So it's not surprising that Rick Porcello, good ol' No. 84 himself, is currently owned by less than 25 percent of fantasy teams.

However, as the saying goes, sometimes looks can be deceiving.

Porcello's 4.28 ERA this season is hardly impressive, ranking 68th among qualified starting pitchers, but it's his combined 5.24 ERA in April, May and June that really stands out and paints an inaccurate picture of how he's actually performed. In reality, there was a fair amount of bad luck involved. To start, the 24-year-old's April-June strand rate stood at just 60 percent, which is well below league average (his LOB% for the season sits at 69.5 percent, the seventh-lowest mark in the American League). When you add in a slightly inflated .318 batting average on balls in play and a 16 percent HR/FB rate, it's easier to understand why Porcello's first three months were so shaky.

The thing is, not only do Porcello's peripherals over those first three months not suggest an ERA north of 5.00, they were actually pretty darn good. He sported a 7.1 K/9 rate and a 1.8 BB/9 rate in that time frame, and his 4.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio before the All-Star break was the eighth best in the American League. Porcello's 3.50 FIP and 3.04 xFIP in the first half also ranked 13th and sixth in the AL, respectively.

The numbers show that Porcello has indeed taken a step forward from last season. From 2012 to 2013, his K/9 rate jumped from 5.5 to 6.6, his BB/9 rate decreased from 2.3 to 1.9 and his ground ball rate increased from 53 percent to 57 percent. Not only that, but his strikeout rate has increased every year since 2010, his walk rate has dwindled each of the past two seasons and his ground ball rate has also risen every year since 2010. Finally, he's generated more swings and misses each of the past three years. In short, his improvement isn't just a one-year thing; he's consistently getting better each season.

Given the improvement we've seen from Porcello this season, it's worth noting that he's attacking hitters differently than he has in the past. According to FanGraphs.com, from 2010 to 2012 the right-hander never threw his slider/cutter less than 14.5 percent of the time. This season he's thrown it just 5.0 percent of the time. He's also now relying on his curveball more than ever. From 2010 to 2012, he never threw it more than 3.2 percent of the time. This season that percentage is up to 17.3 percent. Here's the complete breakdown:

Season	Fastball	Slider/Cutter	Curve	Changeup
2010	70.7%	14.1%	3.2%	11.7%
2011	66.4%	20.2%	2.0%	11.4%
2012	66.8%	16.0%	3.2%	13.6%
2013	61.2%	5.0%	17.3%	16.1%

Whether it's directly related to how often Porcello is throwing each pitch or not, on the whole, his pitches have been more effective this season. FanGraphs.com also lets us look at every pitch type he's thrown this year and, based on the league average, see how many runs were "saved" by using that pitch. In short, we can measure the effectiveness of each pitch type.

Note: Since Porcello obviously doesn't throw each type of pitch equally, the below data measures the numbers of runs saved per 100 pitches thrown:

Season	Fastball	Slider/Cutter	Curve	Changeup
2012	-0.2%	-4.3%	1.1%	0.1%
2013	-0.2%	2.4%	0.4%	1.2%

While his curveball is slightly less effective this season, it's still above average. Meanwhile, his slider/cutter is his most effective pitch now that he's using it more sparingly, and his changeup has improved significantly, as well. Maybe Porcello's adjusted arsenal doesn't tell us the whole story of his development this season, but it does at least give us some insight into his improved (and underrated) performance.

Of course, let's not pretend there aren't any red flags here. While Porcello's strikeout rate has been improving each year and currently sits at a career-high 6.6 K/9, it's still below average for a starting pitcher. More concerning is that his strikeout rate has also been waning as the season has progressed:

May: 9.1 K/9
June: 7.1 K/9
July/August: 5.3 K/9

That's obviously worrisome and keeps his fantasy upside somewhat limited. Plus, while Porcello's FIP and xFIP are significantly lower than his ERA (which can often mean that an ERA correction is coming), there's a good reason for that. The Tigers' infield defense, with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder manning the corners, is well below average. That would hurt any pitcher, but it especially hurts Porcello, whose 57.2 ground ball rate is the second highest in all of baseball this season behind Justin Masterson. The addition of Jose Iglesias, who replaces the suspended Jhonny Peralta at shortstop, should help, but this is still an infield that is far from ideal for a pitcher who induces so many ground balls.

Nonetheless, there's still a lot to like here, and there's good reason to expect Porcello to be a fantasy asset over the final weeks. Remember, there's less than two months remaining in the regular season, which means most starting pitchers have only 10 or 11 starts left. If you still find yourself looking at your team with a big-picture perspective, stop. It's time to focus on those who are pitching well now and can provide significant help down the stretch.

Porcello entered this week ranking as a top-30 starting pitcher over the past month, and he holds a 4-0 record with a 1.87 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over his past five starts. That alone makes the former first-round pick intriguing, but consider his schedule over the remainder of the season. Over his final 10 starts (which is obviously subject to change), Porcello is on track to get eight games against teams that currently rank 15th or lower in the majors in runs scored. Five of those contests are versus teams that rank bottom-five, and four of those are against the two lowest-scoring teams in baseball (three against the White Sox, who Porcello is 2-0 against with a 1.74 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in three starts this year, and one versus the Marlins). In other words, even if you want to use Porcello only as a matchup play, you can confidently plug him in for nearly all of his remaining starts.

Truth be told, Porcello may not miss enough bats to be a true difference-maker as we enter the stretch run, but that's fine. And so what if he's been the No. 84 starting pitcher in fantasy so far? All you should care about is what he is from this point on. And that should be a fantasy starter who provides plenty of value in the final weeks.

HacheMan · Aug 8, 2013

Talkin' keepers: Pitchers to stash for 2014

<CITE class=byline>By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Before we discuss the hidden keeper value in readily available pitchers, it's worth noting that, in general, those players who make their baseball living hitting baseballs tend to be far more safer and reliable than those who do so throwing them. That doesn't mean one should keep Joey Terdoslavich over Yu Darvish, but there are, admittedly, some benefits to keeping hitters. Regardless though, pitchers do account for half the fantasy stats. They are valuable to us.

So after discussing hitters with varying degrees of future value for some keeper leagues, let's focus on the pitchers. Again, I can't possibly know if your league keeps only three players, in which case I'd focus entirely on hitters, or 12, in which case you cannot do this. I participate in a 16-team league in which most closers are kept, and the way I became the owner of Craig Kimbrel was by adding him the September he first burst onto the scene. By the following spring, he was a dominant closer. Starting pitchers can follow this path as well.

<OFFER>Here are very available pitchers, in alphabetical order and already in the ESPN player pool -- we'll likely see Cuban import Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez at some point, too -- that I'd certainly consider stashing away today, rather than dealing with on draft day next spring.

Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics: I sure hope he's not the lefty version of Rich Harden, but one of these years, Anderson will make 30 starts, and we'll love him again.

Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians: Sometimes it takes defiant, young men a bit longer to reach their goals. Bauer's command remains a mess, but once he figures things out, the upside is clear.

Alex Colome, Tampa Bay Rays: Actually, pick just about any young Rays starting pitcher, be it Colome, Jake Odorizzi or Alex Torres. Look at what Chris Archer has done. The Rays are a smart organization and often get the best out of their young players and can save older ones, such as Fernando Rodney. Colome is a power right-hander, and I like him a bit more than I do Odorizzi or the lefty Torres, who might stick in the bullpen.

Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles: A top prospect who struggled at Triple-A and in the big leagues, the right-hander should make the 2014 rotation and fits the criteria of a post-hype sleeper. I would have focused on Dylan Bundy, but after his elbow surgery, he's probably out for at least half of next season.

Sonny Gray, Athletics: A starter in the minors but without a rotation spot in the majors, the right-hander seems ready to help the team out of the bullpen this year, but it's not his future role. He's getting strikeouts and ground balls this season, a nice combination.

Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies: It's not because I'm a Phillies fan; I could make a list of their options I don't like for fantasy purposes. It's because Halladay's health was clearly compromised this season, and next year it probably won't be. I feel less confident about Halladay's good pal Chris Carpenter, but again, when healthy, the guy can pitch.

Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays: His 2013 numbers are almost irrelevant since we know he battled arm woes. We also know he struck out 203 hitters as recently as 2011, and when healthy, he has the ability to do so again.

Michael Pineda, New York Yankees: I remain skeptical that he will impact the Yankees this season, as his innings are being carefully monitored, but he is a rotation possibility next March and an upside pick with strikeout potential.

David Robertson, Yankees: We say a hearty farewell to Mariano Rivera and thank him for his historic service, but someone has to close in 2014. Robertson has been an elite setup man, and I have little doubt that he can handle the pressure of the ninth inning.

Bruce Rondon, Detroit Tigers: This hefty, hard-throwing righty has proven nothing at the big league level except that he can hit triple digits on the radar gun, but Tigers manager Jim Leyland certainly seemed to want him to win the closer job back in March, and he should get another chance next March.

Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals: This right-hander is either going to be a dominant starter in the mold of Adam Wainwright, who also began his big league career in the bullpen, or a dominant closer. Hopefully the Cardinals realize 200-plus innings is far more valuable than 70. Regardless, get this future star now, as well as his teammates Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez.

Drew Smyly, Tigers: He's having a monster season as a setup man, but was mostly a starting pitcher in the minors, which could be his future path. Good arms are worth investing in now as you let the role play out later.

Joakim Soria, Texas Rangers: Joe Nathan has had a terrific season, but he could bolt for one more contract and leave a healthy Soria or fellow right-hander Neftali Feliz to handle closing duties. Feliz will probably be used as a starter.

Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners: He's 20 and an early candidate for top rookie pitcher honors in 2014. He's pretty much ready now.

Other youngsters: Some fantasy owners will be scared to rely on Houston Astros top pick Mark Appel because the team is so downtrodden. It won't be by 2015. … The Arizona Diamondbacks could turn to right-hander Archie Bradley for this year's pennant race. Why not add him before the Diamondbacks do? … Jameson Taillon might be every bit as good and successful as Gerrit Cole next season, but unlike Cole, Taillon is readily available. … Seattle's Danny Hultzen has had a lost season due to shoulder woes, but the former No. 2 overall pick has a bright future and a spacious home ballpark.

Other closers: The last time Ryan Madson saved a game was late in 2011, and he has been on two teams since then. As long as he has that closer label, someone will give him a chance. … Jason Motte also hasn't thrown a regular-season pitch this season, and since we know Tommy John surgery is just a speed bump for many, he could be the Cardinals' closer in 2014. … I doubt the Boston Red Sox view Koji Uehara as their future closer. Joel Hanrahan should be back for spring training, if you're into lottery tickets. … Same with Chicago Cubs right-hander Kyuji Fujikawa. It's not like the Cubs have their future closer lined up yet.</CITE>

HacheMan · Aug 11, 2013

Lake, Flores profiles; top prospects

By Jim Callis | Baseball America

Chicago Cubs outfielder Junior Lake and New York Mets third baseman Wilmer Flores both posted the best numbers of their pro careers this season in Triple-A, and both have impressed at times in the big leagues since getting called up in the past month. Age is on their side, too; Lake is 23 and Flores just turned 22.

But I don't love either guy as a long-term play in fantasy baseball.

The Cubs signed both Lake (for $110,000) and Starlin Castro ($50,000) out of the Dominican Republic in the 2006-07 offseason. They made strong U.S. debuts in 2008 while sharing the shortstop job for the Rookie-level Arizona League Cubs, but after that, their paths diverged wildly. Castro jumped to high Class A in 2009 and was in the majors to stay a year later. Lake struggled following a promotion to low Class A, never posted an .800-plus OPS until this summer in Triple-A and didn't make it to Wrigley Field until July 19 of this year.

Lake already has two four-hit games and one two-homer contest in the big leagues, and he's hitting .330/.352/.500 in 21 games for Chicago. He's a quality 6-foot-3, 215-pound athlete with above-average raw power, solid speed and a cannon arm, and he played all four infield positions in the minors. So what's not to like? Well, Lake never produced consistently in the minors (.271/.322/.411 in 619 games) because he gets himself out at the plate way too often. He has a "busy" swing with a lot of holes, and he chases far too many pitches (especially breaking balls) out of the strike zone. He has 23 strikeouts and just two walks in 88 big league at-bats, and he's not going to keep hitting .446 and slugging .677 when he puts the ball in play.

I see Lake as more of a placeholder than as a long-term regular. The Cubs' outfield of the future is Albert Almora, Kris Bryant and Jorge Soler, and Lake's other viable position (third base) will belong to Javier Baez. Brett Jackson and Mike Olt also are in line for playing time in the future.

Flores was one of the top international hitters on the market in 2007 when he signed for $750,000 out of Venezuela. He batted .307/.347/.468 in his pro debut the following summer … but he wouldn't produce like that again until 2012. After totaling 31 homers in his first four pro seasons, he broke out with a career-high 18 long balls in 2012 and smacked 15 more in 107 games at extremely hitter-friendly Las Vegas this year.

I believe in Flores' hitting ability more than I do in Lake's. He has a better approach and good hand-eye coordination, and I think he'll make enough hard contact to hit .280 or better in the majors. He hasn't struck out in his first three major league starts in place of an injured David Wright, and Flores delivered two hits and three RBIs in his second big league game Wednesday.

My concern with Flores is that I'm not sure he profiles as a quality regular at any one position, and that eventually will cut into his playing time. He has well below-average speed and quickness, and though he spent the bulk of his career at shortstop before moving to second and third base the past two seasons, he's destined for first base. He's not patient at the plate and many scouts question whether he'll have even average power, which likely won't cut it at first base.

If you have Lake or Flores on your fantasy team, the best-case scenario would be for them to help your club enough down the stretch to entice another owner in your league to overpay for them in an offseason trade.

Below is an updated top 10 fantasy prospects list, based solely on each player's ability to produce in the big leagues the remainder of this season:

[h=3]1. Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B, Boston Red Sox (Last week's rank: 1)[/h]
Season totals: .291/.380/.476, 8 HR, 27 RBIs, 2 SB in 51 games at Triple-A Pawtucket; .311/.407/.502, 6 HR, 35 RBIs, 5 SB in 56 games at Double-A Portland.
Update: Though he's the youngest player (age 20) in the International League, Bogaerts continues to have no problems in Triple-A. He has gone 11-for-31 (.354) with three doubles in the past week and made another start, his seventh, at third base for Pawtucket after not playing the position previously.
Prognosis: Brock Holt and Brandon Snyder are providing little offense while platooning at third base for the Red Sox, who likely won't be able to resist promoting Bogaerts for much longer. He may be young, but he's also immensely talented and capable of doing for Boston what Manny Machado did for the Baltimore Orioles last year.

[h=3]2. Sonny Gray, SP, Oakland Athletics (Last week's rank: 7)[/h]
Season totals: 10-7 record, 3.42 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 118 K's in 118 1/3 innings (20 starts) at Triple-A Sacramento.
Update: Gray has given up more hits than innings in back-to-back starts, which hadn't happened to him since April, though he still managed a quality start and a win last weekend in his previous outing. He has been the best starting pitching prospect in the Pacific Coast League this season, and the Athletics reportedly will call him up to make his first big league start Saturday.
Prognosis: Gray made his major league debut with two scoreless relief appearances in early July. Oakland's starters have been inconsistent lately -- Tommy Milone got demoted to Triple-A and Brett Anderson still hasn't returned from a foot injury. So if Gray performs well -- and he has the fastball/curveball combination to do so -- he could stick in the A's rotation for a while.

[h=3]3. Avisail Garcia, OF, Chicago White Sox (Last week's rank: 5)[/h]
Season totals: .370/.469/.556, 1 HR, 9 RBIs, 0 SB in eight games at Triple-A Charlotte; .374/.410/.537, 5 HR, 23 RBIs, 4 SB in 33 games at Triple-A Toledo; .417/.500/.708, 1 HR, 4 RBIs, 2 SB in six games at high Class A Lakeland.
Update: Garcia continues to destroy Triple-A pitching; he went 10-for-25 (.400) last week to boost his combined slash stats between Toledo and Charlotte to .374/.420/.540. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers claimed Alex Rios on waivers, and agreed to a deal Friday in whicb the White Sox will send $1 million to Texas toward Rios' salary, and the Rangers will send either a player to be named or cash considerations.
Prognosis: Garcia should get the call to U.S. Cellular Field any day now. He has nothing left to prove at Triple-A and is counted on as a cornerstone of the White Sox's rebuilding efforts.

[h=3]4. Nick Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers (Last week's rank: 2)[/h]
Season totals: .278/.350/.440, 13 HR, 63 RBIs, 4 SB in 116 games at Triple-A Toledo.
Update: Since missing four games for the birth of his first child, Castellanos has gone 5-for-18 (.278) with three doubles. He has set a career high for extra-base hits (47) as a 21-year-old in Triple-A, and there's still three weeks left in the minor league season.
Prognosis: The Tigers have all but wrapped up the American League Central, but they'd be even stronger if they scrapped their left field platoon of Andy Dirks and Matt Tuiasosopo and turned to Castellanos.

[h=3]5. Michael Wacha, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: 3)[/h]
Season totals: 5-3 record, 2.65 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 73 K's in 85 IP (15 starts) at Triple-A Memphis.
Update: Wacha gave up three runs for just the third time in 15 Triple-A starts Sunday, though he continued to pound the strike zone (57 of 83 pitches were strikes) and fanned six in five innings. The Cardinals will call him up for a Saturday start against the Cubs, going to a six-man rotation at least temporarily to give their other starters some extra rest.
Prognosis: Shelby Miller should be fine after a liner drilled him on his pitching elbow Wednesday, and Joe Kelly has pitched well as St. Louis' fifth starter recently. But if the Cardinals do need another starter down the stretch, Wacha is capable of providing quality innings.

[h=3]6. Tyler Skaggs, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week's rank: 4)[/h]
Season totals: 6-7 record, 4.17 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 93 K's in 82 IP (14 games, 12 starts) at Triple-A Reno; 0-0 record, 4.76 ERA, 2.29 WHIP, 8 K's in 5 2/3 IP (one start) at high Class A Visalia.
Update: Skaggs hasn't pitched since Aug. 1 because Reno had an off day on their schedule, then his scheduled start Thursday was rained out.
Prognosis: The Diamondbacks are falling out of the National League West and wild-card races, and their first choice for a fifth starter after trading Ian Kennedy was Zeke Spruill. Spruill isn't a long-term (or short-term) answer, and there's no guarantee that Trevor Cahill will be effective when he comes off the disabled list, so Skaggs could get another shot in Arizona very soon.

[h=3]7. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: 10)[/h]
Season totals: .257/.311/.347, 6 HR, 39 RBIs, 68 SB in 103 games at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: With four steals in his past five games and 10 swipes in his past 13 games, Hamilton has climbed within six of White Sox second baseman Micah Johnson as he seeks his third straight minor league stolen base crown. Hamilton also has eight hits in his past four games to boost his batting average to .257, his highest mark since April 13.
Prognosis: Overall, Hamilton has had a disappointing season in Triple-A, and he hasn't claimed the Reds' center field job as quickly as expected. That said, he's positioning himself for at least a September call-up and is dangerous enough to steal 10 bases in the final month.

[h=3]8. Archie Bradley, SP, Diamondbacks (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: 7-5 record, 2.06 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 90 K's in 96 IP (16 starts) at Double-A Mobile; 2-0 record, 1.26 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 43 K's in 28 2/3 IP (five starts) at high Class A Visalia.
Update: Bradley pitched the first complete game of his pro career Aug. 2, allowing six hits, a walk and just an unearned run while striking out seven. Despite being the Southern League's youngest qualifier (age 20), he ranks second in the league in ERA (2.06) and strikeouts per nine innings (8.4).
Prognosis: As noted with Skaggs, the Diamondbacks are sorting through multiple issues in their rotation. Skaggs has had four opportunities to help Arizona this year, and the club could resort to promoting Bradley two levels. Few, if any, pitchers in the minors have better pure stuff than Bradley.

[h=3]9. Travis d'Arnaud, C, Mets (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: .250/.429/472, 1 HR, 8 RBIs, 0 SB in 12 games at Triple-A Las Vegas; .222/.300/.481, 1 HR, 3 RBIs, 0 SB in seven games at Double-A Binghamton; .318/.348/.455, 0 HR, 5 RBIs, 0 SB in six games in Rookie-level Gulf Coast League.
Update: Acquired in the offseason R.A. Dickey trade with the Toronto Blue Jays, d'Arnaud is the best catching prospect in the minors, but he has had difficulty staying healthy. He broke a bone in his foot in April and didn't return until late July. He went 5-for-18 (.278) with a homer in five Double-A games this week and got promoted to Triple-A after Thursday's game.
Prognosis: D'Arnaud could get another call-up in short order, as John Buck is expected to take paternity leave soon. Buck has regressed to his normal self after a hot April and becomes a free agent after the season, so it's worth the Mets' while to give d'Arnaud some extended playing time.

[h=3]10. George Springer, OF, Houston Astros (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: .314/.424/.613, 10 HR, 34 RBIs, 14 SB in 39 games at Triple-A Oklahoma City; .297/.399/.579, 19 HR, 55 RBIs, 23 SB in 73 games at Double-A Corpus Christi.
Update: Springer had a rare quiet week, going 4-for-20 (.200) with just one extra-base hit, but he's still putting together one of the best minor league seasons of 2013. He's one homer shy of the minors' first 30-30 season since Athletics outfielder Grant Desme had 31 homers and 40 steals in 2009.
Prognosis: Robbie Grossman and L.J. Hoes have bolstered the Astros' outfield with strong play so far this month, and Springer doesn't have to be protected on the 40-man roster after the season. Those factors argue against a call-up, though Springer could provide power and speed if he gets a big league shot in the final two months. He figures to be Houston's center fielder in 2014, so the club could give him a look now to ease his transition to the majors next year.

Dropped out (with last week's rank): Mike Olt, 3B, Chicago Cubs (6); Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians (9).
Called up (with last week's rank): Danny Salazar, SP, Cleveland Indians (8).

HacheMan · Aug 12, 2013

Bits: D-backs' Davidson worth a look

Eric Karabell

Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Cody Ross likely suffered a season-ending injury Sunday when he dislocated his right hip running to first base. Ross was actually one of the most added hitters in ESPN standard leagues, but it's quite possible that Ross' pain could be Matt Davidson's gain. Davidson, the slugging prospect called up because infielder Eric Chavez was placed on the disabled list, made his big league debut Sunday and singled in three at-bats.

The Diamondbacks could give Davidson a chance at regular playing time, moving the versatile Martin Prado to left field. Both hit right-handed, but it's reasonable to think Davidson could deliver the power that would have been expected of Ross. After all, Davidson hit 16 home runs for Triple-A Reno, was the MVP of the Futures Game and won the Triple-A Home Run Derby last month. Colleague Keith Law praised Davidson for his "easy right-handed swing and potential for above-average power," and now that the playing time hurdle has potentially been removed, Davidson is worth a look in deep leagues.

<OFFER>Of course, the Diamondbacks still possess a glut of outfielders, and Davidson is not known for his glove, so Prado shouldn't simply assume he'll be playing left field the final seven weeks. Adam Eaton is starting to hit -- though he still isn't stealing bases -- and Gerardo Parra has proven himself offensively and defensively. There's an opening now; Jason Kubel could get back into the left field picture, but Davidson doesn't seem to have much more to prove in the minors. He's 22, and nobody should expect a high batting average, given his strikeout rate, but he projects to hit 20-plus home runs a season in the majors. If you own the uninspiring Michael Young, slumping Todd Frazier, nonhitter Jose Iglesias, lost Trevor Plouffe or had owned the now-unemployed Mark Reynolds, take a chance. I would still rather own Alex Rodriguez, who homered Sunday, but Davidson clearly has more upside.

Box score bits (NL): New York Mets lefty Jonathon Niese (shoulder) came off the disabled list Sunday against Davidson's Diamondbacks and tossed six effective innings, earning his fourth win. Niese has had a disappointing season, but he should be owned in NL-only formats, and with his next outing scheduled in San Diego, it should pique the interest of even mixed-league owners. … The Padres gave prospect Jaff Decker the start in left field Sunday, as Carlos Quentin is on the DL. Decker was hitting well at Triple-A Tucson and deserves a look in NL-only formats. He's not a big power guy or base stealer, though. … Atlanta Braves outfielder Jordan Schafer came off the DL this weekend and stole his 10th base in 62 games Sunday. Schafer, hitting .310, isn't a special player, but he can run. And the Braves could play Schafer quite a bit down the stretch to rest the Upton brothers. … Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Starling Marte didn't start Sunday after being hit by a pitch on the left hand Saturday. Marte is in the overall top 20 on the ESPN Player Rater and might miss a few days, but a DL stint is not expected.

Box score bits (AL): Outfielder Alex Rios made his debut with the Texas Rangers on Saturday and singled and tripled, then contributed two more hits Sunday, hitting fifth behind Adrian Beltre. It's a nice spot for Rios. He's owned in all leagues anyway, but hopefully the power missing from 2012 returns. … Rios was acquired from the Chicago White Sox, opening up right field for prospect Avisail Garcia, who stole a base Sunday. Just don't expect much from him in terms of batting average. … Rangers lefty Martin Perez went the distance against the Houston Astros on Sunday, striking out eight and allowing one run, a Chris Carter home run in the ninth inning. Perez has pitched well his past three outings, though he doesn't warrant mixed-league attention yet. … Los Angeles Angels right-hander Ernesto Frieri did everything he could to lose the closer role, and Dane De La Rosa saved Friday's game. Frieri tossed a scoreless inning Sunday in a loss and could reclaim the role, so try to avoid cutting him if you need every last save. … The Kansas City Royals placed outfielder Lorenzo Cain (oblique) on the DL Saturday, though it's not clear if Jarrod Dyson or Justin Maxwell will hit enough to seize the opportunity. Dyson stole his 17th base Sunday and is worth adding if you need steals. Maxwell homered Friday. Maxwell is more appealing, but watch the playing-time situation. … It appears Baltimore Orioles outfielder Nate McLouth has decided to steal bases again. McLouth stole 24 bases before July. Then he stole one base in July. On Sunday, McLouth swiped his third base in a week. If you need steals, look his way yet again.

HacheMan · Aug 12, 2013

Can Josh Reddick keep hitting homers?

Eric Karabell

Oakland Athletics outfielder Josh Reddick entered this past weekend hitting .203 with only five home runs in 82 games, and looking nothing like the breakout performer who smacked 32 home runs in 2012. Reddick wasn’t highly coveted in ESPN live drafts, ending up in the 18th round, as many suspected that he wouldn’t hit for quite the same power and that a low batting average was coming, but still, few expected this type of drop to irrelevance. Reddick began the weekend owned in less than a quarter of ESPN standard leagues, and I wasn’t eager to add him, either.

Of course, when a player hits five home runs in a two-day span to tie the big league record, it tends to get noticed quickly. Yep, on Friday and Saturday alone Reddick matched his season total in home runs, and suffice to say there weren’t many fantasy owners enjoying it. Reddick hasn’t made it to ESPN’s most added list yet, but it’s likely coming because here are the positive numbers from the first three games of the Toronto Blue Jays series, with the finale coming Monday afternoon against the below-average J.A. Happ: six hits in 12 at-bats, five home runs, eight RBIs and a 12-point bump in season batting average. None of this means Reddick is suddenly a must-own asset, fixed after four-plus months of underwhelming play, but if you’ve got an empty bench spot and need power this week, well, ride the streak!

As the ESPN Stats & Info blog noted over the weekend, Reddick had been hitting into some bad luck this season, with a strikingly low batting average on contact and a relatively high hard-hit average that hadn’t been bearing positive results. His BABIP, quite low at .269 a year ago, has been even lower this season at .235. Luck doesn’t have to even out, and this is a fly ball/strikeout hitter who swings for the fences, but still. We know Reddick has power, and it’s not too late for him to contribute. There really was little evidence a weekend like this was pending. He entered Friday hitless in his previous 19 at-bats, and before swatting three home runs Friday night hadn’t hit that many in any single month all season. Not all these blasts came off struggling pitchers, either. His final one came Saturday off Blue Jays closer Casey Janssen, only the second home run he had allowed all year.

The big question now is was this just a magical weekend in Canada or a harbinger of things to come? As Reddick said postgame, “I finally got something to go my way. If you hit it over there, they can’t catch it.” It’s a nice strategy, simply going for broke on every swing, though pitchers tend to figure that theme out. Still, why can’t this guy hit another 10 home runs the final seven weeks? Both myself and colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft rank Reddick around the top-50 outfielders despite brutal numbers, and we saw last year what the hitter is capable of, not only with the 32 home runs, but with 10 of them coming in May. Adding Reddick as a free agent now is a bit like adding the latest hitting prospect to get promoted: See what happens, and if it doesn’t continue, just move on.

There are signs that it’s a wise time to invest in Reddick just in case he really gets going. It’s not just the flash of power, but the lefty-hitting Reddick hit several of them this weekend off lefty pitchers, and now has half his 10 home runs for the season against lefties. That’s awfully odd. Reddick hit .242 with a .305 on-base percentage in his breakout season, so expectations should have been kept in check, but I think most of us would take a .242 batting average the rest of the way if it comes with power. Reddick is actually walking more and striking out less and he offers help in that fifth category, as well, as he has stolen 19 bases in two seasons. He really should have been performing better than this most of the season. Next up, after Monday’s day game in Toronto: the Houston Astros pitching staff. Sign up if you need power and don’t have a need for a high batting average.

HacheMan · Aug 13, 2013

[h=1]Best, worst schedules for pitchers[/h][h=3]Matchups can go a long way toward determining hurlers' values for final weeks of '13[/h]
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

The Atlanta Braves, owners of a 16-3 record in the month of August, now-14-games lead in the National League East and a magic number (that the number of their wins and/or the next-best team's losses needed to clinch) of 31, might look like a team ready to ease back on their efforts, resting up for October.

But for fantasy purposes, they might only get better.

This is a topic that came up during Monday's Fantasy Focus podcast, and it was that discussion between me and Nate Ravitz which had me thinking: Who does have the most favorable remaining schedule for fantasy? After that show, I returned to my spreadsheet to determine the answer.

Sure enough, it's the Braves. Podcast listeners know this already, but in case you haven't yet heard, this is their remaining schedule: PHI-2, (off day), WSH-3, (off day), @NYM-2, @STL-4, (off day), CLE-3, MIA-3, NYM-3, (off day), @PHI-3, @MIA-4, SD-3, @WSH-3, (off day), @CHC-3, MIL-3, PHI-4.

Of those nine different opponents, only the St. Louis Cardinals (4.91) and New York Mets (4.07) have averaged more than four runs per game this season, and only the Cardinals (.323) have a higher wOBA (weighted on-base average) better than the major league average of .310. Those Cardinals games, incidentally, conclude on Aug. 25, or 12 days from now, meaning the Braves' final 32 games, which encompass the final 34 days of the 2013 schedule, come only against mediocre offensive teams.

This is the reason fantasy owners shouldn't entirely fear premature shutdowns of their starters, whether the result of innings caps, such as with Julio Teheran, or strategically resting pitchers for the playoffs. Yes, the Braves might ease off some of their starters -- the 22-year-old Teheran, who has never pitched more than 164 1/3 innings in a professional season and is on pace for 195 -- but the point is that what their starters will give you until such decisions are made will be well worth any risk taken by sticking with them.

Incidentally, four Braves starters -- candidates for starts, that is -- remain available in a large percentage of ESPN leagues: Kris Medlen (owned in 87.3 percent), Brandon Beachy (52.8 percent), Alex Wood (32.0) and Paul Maholm (23.0). Armed with this knowledge, you might be able to piece together a late-season strategy simply by rotating Braves. After all, the Braves face divisional foes in 27 of their final 43 contests, and this quartet combined has a 3.15 ERA and 1.15 WHIP within the division this season.

Beachy is perhaps the most-intriguing, highest-ceiling candidate of the bunch. Having made 12 starts of 58 total innings thus far between the majors and minors after recovering from Tommy John surgery, he might have the freshest arm of the team's current starting five. Also bear in mind that he threw 81 innings pre-surgery in 2012, so he's unlikely to significantly exceed that number. Beachy has boosted his Bill James Game Score from 21 to 51 to 81 in his first three big-league starts, his fastball improving by leaps and bounds in the process (.549 wOBA on 52 thrown in his first start, .289 on 51 in his second, .220 on 64 in his third).

Besides the Braves, who else faces an "easy" schedule in the final quarter?

[h=3]Most favorable pitching schedules[/h]

Chicago Cubs: Remaining schedule CIN-2, (off day), STL-3, WSH-4, @SD-3, @LAD-3, (off day), PHI-3, MIA-3, (off day), MIL-3, @CIN-3, @PIT-4, @MIL-4, ATL-3, PIT-3, (off day), @STL-3.

Here's another team rife with opportunity, as not one single pitcher on the Cubs is owned in 100 percent of ESPN leagues; closer Kevin Gregg leads the way with 98.4 percent ownership. And here's the scary part: Gregg might stand the most to lose in terms of value of any of the Cubs' most important pitchers.

Jeff Samardzija (owned in 85.6 percent of ESPN leagues) has had only three quality starts in seven games since July 1, but he also faced a much more challenging portion of the Cubs' schedule than the one that lies ahead. Should the Cubs remain on a straight five-man rotation without any postponements, these would be Samardzija's final nine starts: CIN, WSH, @SD, PHI, MIA, @CIN, @PIT, ATL, PIT. It's those Cincinnati Reds matchups that warrant the most hesitation, but keep in mind that he has a 3.52 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 9.10 strikeouts per nine innings ratio in five starts against them since the beginning of last season.

There could also be some matchups opportunities for lesser-heralded Cubs starters such as Travis Wood (owned in 65.5 percent), Edwin Jackson (20.6), Carlos Villanueva (3.3) and Chris Rusin (0.7). Wood, like Samardzija, currently lines up to make a start at San Diego's Petco Park and one versus the Miami Marlins. In addition, should the team decide to get a look at its potential future closers, Pedro Strop (0.7 percent) has a 2.65 ERA and 10.59 K's per nine since joining the Cubs.

Detroit Tigers: Remaining schedule @CWS-2, KC-5, (off day), MIN-3, @NYM-3, OAK-4, CLE-3, @BOS-3, (off day), @KC-3, @CWS-3, (off day), KC-3, SEA-4, CWS-3, @MIN-3, (off day), @MIA-3.

Four of the Tigers' five starters as well as their closer are claimed in every ESPN league, but that doesn't mean this team is lacking in opportunity. Fifth starter Rick Porcello, available in more than 80 percent of ESPN leagues (18.3 percent owned), has six quality starts in his past seven games. He has also made a key skills improvement from a full-season perspective: He has increases his K-to-walk ratio for the fourth straight year, his 3.48 number a significant step forward from the 2.43 he posted in 2012.

The Tigers' remaining schedule should also instill a greater sense of confidence in both Joaquin Benoit's and Anibal Sanchez's fantasy owners. Benoit has converted all nine of his save chances with a 0.66 ERA in 15 appearances since July 1, while Sanchez has five quality starts and a 2.25 ERA in seven starts since returning from the disabled list, and both might yet keep up those torrid paces.

[h=3]Least favorable pitching schedules[/h]
It wouldn't be complete analysis without the bad matchups, right?

Baltimore Orioles: Remaining schedule @ARI-2, (off day), COL-3, TB-3, (off day), OAK-3, (off day), @BOS-3, @NYY-3, @CLE-3, CWS-4, NYY-4, @TOR-3, (off day), @BOS-3, @TB-4, TOR-3, BOS-3.

What's most unattractive about the Orioles' remaining schedule is the portion that begins on Tuesday, Aug. 27. That's their first game of a nine-game road trip to Boston, New York and Cleveland, and it begins a 34-day stretch during which the team has only one off day (Sept. 16). With the exception of the Chicago White Sox series (Sept. 5-8), there isn't an "easy" game during that 34-day span.

That's bad news for a rotation effectively populated only by matchups considerations, Chris Tillman (owned in 91.0 percent) a possible exception. Fantasy owners might not be able to extract nearly as many useful matchups from pitchers like Bud Norris (41.4 percent), Wei-Yin Chen (29.0), Scott Feldman (20.5) or Miguel Gonzalez (14.7), and keeping this schedule in mind, you shouldn't be afraid to cut any of the four at any time you need a roster spot for other streamers.

New York Yankees: Remaining schedule LAA-3, @BOS-3, (off day), TOR-4, @TB-3, @TOR-3, (off day), BAL-3, CWS-3, BOS-4, @BAL-4, @BOS-3, (off day), @TOR-3, SF-3, (off day), TB-3, @HOU-3.

That is a lot of Boston Red Sox, isn't it? Don't forget that the Red Sox have scored the majors' most runs (605) and have the second-best wOBA (.340), largely responsible for what is 26 of the Yankees' final 45 games coming against the five best teams in baseball in terms of wOBA. Heck, the team doesn't have an "easy" game until the final 10 days, when the Yankees host the San Francisco Giants before heading to Houston to conclude the season.

Talk up CC Sabathia's second-half history -- he hasn't had an ERA higher than 3.44 after the All-Star break since 2005 -- if you wish, but his diminished velocity coupled with this treacherous schedule makes him more likely to disappoint than rebound the remainder of this year. In fact, there's only one Yankees pitcher who can be deemed "trustworthy" keeping the schedule in mind: Hiroki Kuroda, who has nine quality starts and a 1.79 ERA in his past 11 starts.

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[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>	Player	<CENTER>Pos Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk</CENTER>
1	Clayton Kershaw, LAD	SP1	1	76	Tony Cingrani, Cin	SP55	79
2	Yu Darvish, Tex	SP2	4	77	Mark Melancon, Pit	RP22	80
3	Max Scherzer, Det	SP3	3	78	Travis Wood, ChC	SP56	82
4	Felix Hernandez, Sea	SP4	2	79	Jim Henderson, Mil	RP23	83
5	Adam Wainwright, StL	SP5	5	80	Brandon Beachy, Atl	SP57	85
6	Stephen Strasburg, Wsh	SP6	8	81	Ricky Nolasco, LAD	SP58	84
7	David Price, TB	SP7	6	82	Zack Wheeler, NYM	SP59	87
8	Madison Bumgarner, SF	SP8	7	83	Gerrit Cole, Pit	SP60	76
9	Zack Greinke, LAD	SP9	9	84	Jeremy Hellickson, TB	SP61	60
10	Craig Kimbrel, Atl	RP1	12	85	Ian Kennedy, SD	SP62	88
11	Matt Harvey, NYM	SP10	11	86	Rick Porcello, Det	SP63	91
12	Jered Weaver, LAA	SP11	13	87	Rex Brothers, Col	RP24	92
13	Kenley Jansen, LAD	RP2	14	88	A.J. Griffin, Oak	SP64	77
14	Aroldis Chapman, Cin	RP3	17	89	Brad Ziegler, Ari	RP25	96
15	Justin Verlander, Det	SP12	22	90	Jhoulys Chacin, Col	SP65	95
16	Mike Minor, Atl	SP13	18	91	Kevin Gregg, ChC	RP26	99
17	Chris Sale, CWS	SP14	15	92	Chris Archer, TB	SP66	86
18	Cliff Lee, Phi	SP15	10	93	Danny Farquhar, Sea	RP27	107
19	Mat Latos, Cin	SP16	20	94	Ivan Nova, NYY	SP67	102
20	Homer Bailey, Cin	SP17	19	95	David Robertson, NYY	RP28	108
21	Anibal Sanchez, Det	SP18	27	96	Mike Leake, Cin	SP68	89
22	Hiroki Kuroda, NYY	SP19	23	97	Felix Doubront, Bos	SP69	98
23	Cole Hamels, Phi	SP20	31	98	Dan Haren, Wsh	SP70	111
24	Matt Garza, Tex	SP21	25	99	Bud Norris, Bal	SP71	90
25	Gio Gonzalez, Wsh	SP22	24	100	Jeff Locke, Pit	SP72	97
26	Greg Holland, KC	RP4	29	101	Rafael Betancourt, Col	RP29	101
27	Joe Nathan, Tex	RP5	30	102	Ryan Cook, Oak	RP30	112
28	Mariano Rivera, NYY	RP6	21	103	Ryan Dempster, Bos	SP73	100
29	Francisco Liriano, Pit	SP23	16	104	Alex Wood, Atl	SP74	124
30	Matt Cain, SF	SP24	34	105	LaTroy Hawkins, NYM	RP31	NR
31	Jake Peavy, Bos	SP25	28	106	Dan Straily, Oak	SP75	116
32	Lance Lynn, StL	SP26	32	107	Paul Maholm, Atl	SP76	118
33	James Shields, KC	SP27	36	108	Scott Kazmir, Cle	SP77	103
34	Julio Teheran, Atl	SP28	39	109	Jorge De La Rosa, Col	SP78	109
35	Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh	SP29	26	110	Trevor Cahill, Ari	SP79	114
36	Patrick Corbin, Ari	SP30	35	111	Edwin Jackson, ChC	SP80	105
37	Rafael Soriano, Wsh	RP7	38	112	Dillon Gee, NYM	SP81	128
38	Jeff Samardzija, ChC	SP31	37	113	Jordan Walden, Atl	RP32	123
39	Grant Balfour, Oak	RP8	53	114	Dane De La Rosa, LAA	RP33	NR
40	Fernando Rodney, TB	RP9	33	115	Randall Delgado, Ari	SP82	110
41	Jim Johnson, Bal	RP10	44	116	Jacob Turner, Mia	SP83	113
42	Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD	SP32	47	117	A.J. Ramos, Mia	RP34	115
43	Glen Perkins, Min	RP11	40	118	Josh Johnson, Tor	SP84	126
44	Doug Fister, Det	SP33	46	119	Jenrry Mejia, NYM	SP85	133
45	CC Sabathia, NYY	SP34	42	120	Mark Buehrle, Tor	SP86	130
46	A.J. Burnett, Pit	SP35	45	121	Jason Grilli, Pit	RP35	122
47	Chris Perez, Cle	RP12	48	122	Andrew Cashner, SD	SP87	106
48	Jose Fernandez, Mia	SP36	41	123	Wei-Yin Chen, Bal	SP88	117
49	Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea	SP37	43	124	Trevor Rosenthal, StL	RP36	120
50	Edward Mujica, StL	RP13	52	125	Samuel Deduno, Min	SP89	121
51	Matt Moore, TB	SP38	67	126	Jose Veras, Det	RP37	125
52	Derek Holland, Tex	SP39	55	127	Eric Stults, SD	SP90	134
53	Shelby Miller, StL	SP40	51	128	Yovani Gallardo, Mil	SP91	136
54	Alex Cobb, TB	SP41	64	129	Wily Peralta, Mil	SP92	142
55	Ervin Santana, KC	SP42	49	130	Brandon McCarthy, Ari	SP93	137
56	Sergio Romo, SF	RP14	54	131	Jason Vargas, LAA	SP94	138
57	Kyle Lohse, Mil	SP43	59	132	Drew Smyly, Det	RP38	119
58	C.J. Wilson, LAA	SP44	57	133	Bruce Chen, KC	SP95	NR
59	Addison Reed, CWS	RP15	61	134	Alexi Ogando, Tex	SP96	147
60	Jon Lester, Bos	SP45	58	135	Ernesto Frieri, LAA	RP39	104
61	Jarrod Parker, Oak	SP46	65	136	Tommy Milone, Oak	SP97	93
62	Jonathan Papelbon, Phi	RP16	50	137	Erasmo Ramirez, Sea	SP98	132
63	Wade Miley, Ari	SP47	72	138	Danny Salazar, Cle	SP99	NR
64	Huston Street, SD	RP17	73	139	Brett Anderson, Oak	SP100	140
65	Justin Masterson, Cle	SP48	62	140	Martin Perez, Tex	SP101	NR
66	Chris Tillman, Bal	SP49	69	141	Junichi Tazawa, Bos	RP40	NR
67	R.A. Dickey, Tor	SP50	66	142	Brett Cecil, Tor	RP41	148
68	Casey Janssen, Tor	RP18	56	143	Tyler Clippard, Wsh	RP42	135
69	Kris Medlen, Atl	SP51	75	144	Nate Eovaldi, Mia	SP102	NR
70	Koji Uehara, Bos	RP19	74	145	Sonny Gray, Oak	SP103	NR
71	Joaquin Benoit, Det	RP20	71	146	Marco Estrada, Mil	SP104	NR
72	John Lackey, Bos	SP52	70	147	Pedro Strop, ChC	RP43	NR
73	Tim Lincecum, SF	SP53	81	148	Miguel Gonzalez, Bal	SP105	145
74	Steve Cishek, Mia	RP21	78	149	Darren O'Day, Bal	RP44	143
75	Bartolo Colon, Oak	SP54	68	150	Chris Rusin, ChC	SP106	NR

HacheMan · Aug 13, 2013

Bits: Ludwick returns; Lawrie stays hot

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Ryan Ludwick was the Opening Day left fielder and cleanup hitter for the Cincinnati Reds this season, which is easy to forget since entering Monday that was literally the only major league game the veteran slugger had played in this season. Ludwick tore cartilage in his right shoulder sliding into third base in that first game and missed more than four months. But he returned Monday at Wrigley Field, going hitless in three at-bats out of the No. 6 lineup spot.

Ludwick might seem to be irrelevant for fantasy purposes, but don't be so dismissive; the guy hit 26 home runs and knocked in 80, with a usable .275 batting average, in only 125 games a year ago for the Reds, and the lure of him returning to the cleanup spot soon remains. In fact, one would think a lineup adjustment is coming, considering manager Dusty Baker hasn't gotten much production out of the team's No. 2 spot. Baker likes to split valuable lefty hitters Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce in the 1-3-5 slots, with third baseman Todd Frazier the latest to man the No. 2 spot. It's not a good fit.

<OFFER>Second baseman Brandon Phillips was the No. 2 hitter on Opening Day but then was moved to cleanup, a spot he has embraced not just statistically, but emotionally. Phillips has often discussed how different his plate approach is batting fourth, how he's more aggressive and it's all about knocking in runs. Phillips is having a fine season, well on his way to another top-10 fantasy performance at his position. The two-run homer he blasted Monday off Chicago Cubs lefty Travis Wood accounted for the lone runs of the game and put Phillips on pace for 122 RBIs. He's also on pace for a mere three stolen bases, so it's easy to argue the "old Phillips" who averaged 21 steals over his seven full Reds seasons was a bit more valuable.

Regardless, that Phillips could easily return the final seven weeks, should Ludwick hit enough for Baker to move him back to cleanup. Phillips, of course, is owned in all leagues. Ludwick, not surprisingly, is available in nearly all leagues. Phillips is second in the big leagues in at-bats with runners on base, and he has converted enough into runs. Ludwick is about to eagerly inherit that enticing cleanup role. There's no telling if Ludwick will hit for power, but if Phillips can knock in this many runs -- only three hitters in baseball have more -- then so can he.

Box score bits (NL): Other than the Phillips home run, the Cubs' Wood did little wrong. He tossed eight innings and fanned five, lowering his ERA to an even 3.00. Wood is among the top 30 starting pitchers on the ESPN Player Rater, yet remains available in a third of standard leagues. … Colorado Rockies right-hander Jhoulys Chacin shut down the San Diego Padres over eight innings at Coors Field on Monday, allowing a Jaff Decker home run and little else. Chacin entered play with a 3.30 ERA, but that mark was 4.27 at home and 1.87 on the road. He remains more spot starter than anything else, and it's asking a lot for his home run rate to remain this low. The Decker home run was only the fifth Chacin has allowed in 23 starts. Wow. … Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Cody Asche contributed the always-enjoyable combo meal for fantasy owners, blasting a three-run home run and stealing his first base. Asche has nine hits in 40 big league at-bats, four for extra bases. His upside could be as a 20-homer, 10-steal guy in 2014.

Box score bits (AL): Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Brett Lawrie singled twice Monday, upping his batting average to a season-best .250. Yep, it hasn't been better all year. Lawrie attempted a stolen base, too, though he was not successful. Still, he's hitting .439 in August with six multihit games out of 11. This is the guy we expected. Hopefully he can stay healthy. … Texas Rangers right-hander Yu Darvish continues to dazzle, especially against the woeful Houston Astros; Darvish fanned 15 over eight brilliant innings Monday, allowing one hit, a Carlos Corporan home run. Darvish has 29 more strikeouts than anyone else, a real differentiator. … Astros shortstop Jonathan Villar returned to the lineup after missing four starts with a sprained thumb, and stole his 11th base in his 17th game. It's not a fluke, either. Add the guy for stolen base help. … Minnesota Twins lefty Andrew Albers threw a two-hit shutout against the Cleveland Indians on Monday, issuing no walks and fanning two. In his big league debut last week, Albers came within two outs of a four-hit shutout at Kansas City. He'll be a popular fantasy addition, but the 27-year-old journeyman really shouldn't be. … Mariano Rivera owners need not panic. David Robertson closed Monday's game because Rivera was unavailable. For those in deeper keeper leagues, it's a good reminder to add Robertson now, not for the potential for 2013 saves, but for 2014 chances.

HacheMan · Aug 14, 2013

[h=1]Best, worst schedules for hitters[/h][h=3]Which batters could see a bump or drop in value for final weeks of 2013?[/h]
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

It's fantasy baseball advice you've heard many times before: If all else is equal, take the American League hitter and the National League pitcher.

It's as true this season as ever. The AL's wOBA (weighted on-base average) is 10 points higher than the NL's, AL teams have averaged 0.33 runs per game more than NL squads and AL teams have hit 269 more home runs than NL squads, an average of nearly 0.15 additional homers per game.

Naturally, this means that AL offenses have an advantage over NL offenses during the remainder of the season, just as they have at any time since the advent of the designated hitter in 1973. But this is why that's significant: Interleague play isn't so prevalent in the waning weeks of the season; there are only 48 interleague games in the remaining 47 days, there is never more than one interleague contest on any day after Aug. 26, and six of the final 35 days have no interleague games at all.

In short, AL teams face mostly AL teams in the season's final five weeks -- there are six-and-a-half remaining total -- and that means a maximum of at-bats for them.

Continuing Tuesday's theme of most- and least-favorable rest-of-season schedules, understand then that AL teams, statistically speaking, occupy the majority of the top spots. In fact, if you were to take all 30 teams' remaining schedules, assume that their opponents afford their season-to-date average of runs per game in each contest, then total said averages, AL squads would comprise the top nine spots.

Now let's take a closer look at three teams that stand out on either side, making sure to select representation from either league.

[h=3]Most favorable hitting schedules[/h]
New York Yankees: Remaining schedule LAA-2, @BOS-3, (off day), TOR-4, @TB-3, @TOR-3, (off day), BAL-3, CWS-3, BOS-4, @BAL-4, @BOS-3, (off day), @TOR-3, SF-3, (off day), TB-3, @HOU-3.

Though the Yankees play exactly the same number of games at home (22), in their bandbox ballpark, as on the road (22), be aware that 12 of those road games come at Toronto and Houston, against the two teams with the highest ERAs in baseball. With a combined .327 opponents' wOBA, the Yankees have by far the best schedule in that category, and their opponents' homers-per-game averages sum to 50.2, also tops. That amounts to plenty of power potential, for a lineup that might yet be at its best once Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez are healthy simultaneously.

The Yankees' season-long offensive struggles have led to oddly low ESPN ownership percentages for many of their players, but that means some off-the-wire value: Ichiro Suzuki (owned in 60.8 percent of ESPN leagues) has .330/.363/.465 triple-slash rates, nine home runs and 18 stolen bases in 89 games at Yankee Stadium since his trade to the Yankees. Rodriguez (30.4 percent) has modest .259/.333/.407 rates that might only improve as he gets further removed from hip surgery, and Lyle Overbay (1.5) is a widely available player with a .275/.329/.473 triple-slash against right-handers who warrants your attention in weeks heavy on righty opponents.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Remaining schedule NYM-1, (off day), @PHI-3, @MIA-4, BOS-3, CHC-3, (off day), SD-3, @COL-3, (off day), @CIN-3, ARI-3, SF-4, @ARI-4, @SD-3, (off day), @SF-3, COL-3.

The Dodgers might play only 20 of their final 43 games at Dodger Stadium, but that schedule shows how favorable their road schedule is: They make trips to Colorado's Coors Field, Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park and Arizona's Chase Field. In short, nine of their final 23 road games are at hitter-friendly parks.

Though five Dodgers hitters -- Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig and Hanley Ramirez -- are owned in every ESPN league, that their schedule rates among the most favorable in the National League lends credence to the thought that this team can maintain its .278/.334/.415 triple-slash rates, .323 wOBA and 4.52 runs-per-game average since June 1, the latter two ranking the team second in the NL. Remarkably, this team places only one player among the top 50 hitters on our Player Rater (Gonzalez), so this serves as an important reminder.

Besides, the Dodgers stars' performance facing such a soft set of matchups might prop up the supporting cast's stats. Those players include: Andre Ethier (77.1 percent owned), who has continued his dominance of right-handed pitching this season, batting .287/.388/.423 against them, perhaps enough to convince the Dodgers to lean on him more heavily as a matchups candidate even after Kemp's return; Mark Ellis (18.8), who has made 56 of his 74 starts in either the No. 1 or 2 lineup spots, and whose .282/.326 batting average/on-base percentage is good enough -- even if non-elite -- to result in a healthy runs total; and A.J. Ellis (2.9), a much better on-base specialist than people give him credit for (11.8 percent career walk rate), also could experience a healthy boost in runs.

Tampa Bay Rays: Remaining schedule SEA-2, TOR-3, @BAL-3, (off day), NYY-3, @KC-1, LAA-3, @OAK-3, @LAA-4, @SEA-3, (off day), BOS-3, @MIN-3, TEX-4, BAL-4, @NYY-3, @TOR-3.

Volume is one advantage for the Rays; their 45 remaining games ties them with the Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins and New York Mets for the most left. But there are two key differences between the Rays and those other three: They're a much more potent -- and arguably underrated -- offensive team, and they have a considerably more favorable schedule down the stretch.

The challenge with the Rays, as has been the case for a while now, is manager Joe Maddon's tendency to rely upon straight platoons: Sean Rodriguez and James Loney, Ryan Roberts and Kelly Johnson, combinations of the two, Luke Scott and miscellaneous right-handers … In other words, this is a frustrating team to manage in fantasy, because it means closely tracking lineups in daily leagues, or monitoring volume of right- or left-handed opponents in given weeks. Still, if you're willing to do the work, you might extract quite a bit of value from this team.

Loney (77.3 percent owned), Johnson (48.0), Matt Joyce (16.1), Yunel Escobar (8.9) and Scott (1.3) fit the bill, as matchups candidates are concerned. Loney (.302/.354/.447 triple-slash rates against righties), Johnson (.233/.303/.485), Joyce (.257/.358/.448) and Scott (.237/.340/.431) are especially attractive options thanks to there simply being a larger number of righties in the league.

Here's another tip: The Rays, as a team, have ranked among the top 10 in baseball in wOBA in the month of September in each of the past three years. Maddon tends to keep this team in tip-top shape all the way through season's end, so playoffs or not -- they're looking like a strong bet for it -- the Rays won't shut it down early.

[h=3]Least favorable hitting schedules[/h]
Colorado Rockies: Remaining schedule SD-1, (off day), @BAL-3, @PHI-4, @MIA-3, SF-3, (off day), CIN-3, LAD-3, (off day), @SD-3, @SF-3, (off day), @ARI-3, STL-4, ARI-3, (off day), BOS-2, (off day), @LAD-3.

The Rockies have the fewest remaining games (41), and only three teams have more remaining home games (19), a critical point for a team that calls Coors Field its home. But that's not the only problem with their schedule: Excluding Wednesday's game, five of the Rockies' six remaining Coors opponents rank among the upper half in the majors in ERA, three of them in the top five (Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals). In other words, they play a lot of road baseball, and their Coors matchups aren't as good as they could be.

Take that to heart, if you're of the opinion that Troy Tulowitzki, who has a .304/.373/.564 triple-slash, 35-homers-in-144-games career September stat line, is due for an MVP-caliber finish. This isn't to say that he couldn't have another Tulowitzki-esque dominant spell, but this might be the most difficult September schedule he has ever faced. He's also a .220/.312/.390 hitter in 25 games since the All-Star break, meaning at least a hint of skepticism is warranted.

The Rockies have also been doing a fair share of mixing and matching at first base, second base and in the corner outfield spots, a strategy that diminishes those players' values facing a schedule like this. Given the choice, it's much smarter to pick your matchups from a team like the Rays rather than the Rockies, when you're selecting from lefty-righty platoons.

Milwaukee Brewers: Remaining schedule @TEX-1, CIN-4, STL-3, (off day), @CIN-3, (off day), @PIT-3, LAA-3, PIT-3, (off day), @CHC-3, (off day), @STL-3, CIN-3, CHC-4, STL-3, @ATL-3, @NYM-4.

This team isn't as bad as people tend to think it is, but it remains true that, in Ryan Braun's absence, it has morphed into Norichika Aoki, Jean Segura, Jonathan Lucroy, Carlos Gomez, Aramis Ramirez and four automatic outs (at least against left-handers). Segura has also slumped lately, Gomez is a .253 hitter since the All-Star break and Ramirez is no guarantee to stay healthy the remainder of the year.

Here's the other problem: The Brewers should be mathematically eliminated or be close to it by the time they travel to St. Louis from Sept. 10-12, a series that kicks off a span of 20 consecutive days without a day off to conclude their season. There will be little-to-no motivation for this team during those final three weeks, during which time they'll face the St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves, three outstanding teams with their sights on the playoffs.

It makes sense, therefore, if you're considering dealing a Segura, Lucroy or Gomez, in an ESPN custom league with a later trade deadline. This team might struggle to score runs, and could on many days be relatively quiet offensively.

Cleveland Indians: Remaining schedule @MIN-1, (off day), @OAK-3, @LAA-3, (off day), MIN-3, (off day), @ATL-3, @DET-3, BAL-3, (off day), NYM-3, KC-3, @CWS-4, @KC-3, HOU-4, (off day), CWS-2, @MIN-4.

With the possible exception of the Houston Astros, who lack much in the way of fantasy options, the Indians have by far the AL's worst remaining schedule. For one thing, they have just 19 games remaining at Progressive Field, tied with the Seattle Mariners and Washington Nationals for the fewest remaining home games.

Between this Friday and the conclusion of their three-game series in Kansas City from Sept. 16-18, the Indians play 12 of their 31 games against the four best teams in the AL in terms of ERA and three more against the Atlanta Braves, whose 3.21 ERA is second best in the majors. Sure, their final week-and-a-half schedule is outstanding, but those fantasy owners in head-to-head leagues need to advance to their finals in order to exploit those matchups. It's also possible that the Indians might be mathematically eliminated from postseason contention by the time they even get to that 10-game final stretch.

Be aware that the Indians have five players owned in greater than 50 percent of ESPN leagues who have a wOBA beneath the major league average of .306 since the All-Star break: Michael Bourn (100.0 percent owned, .277 wOBA), Carlos Santana (100.0 and .283), Jason Kipnis (100.0 and .290), Asdrubal Cabrera (91.8 and .226) and Nick Swisher (57.6 and .290).

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<CENTER>#</CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prv Rk</CENTER>	<CENTER>#</CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prv Rk</CENTER>
1	Mike Trout, LAA	OF1	1	76	Jonathan Lucroy, Mil	C6	66
2	Miguel Cabrera, Det	3B1	2	77	Brian McCann, Atl	C7	70
3	Andrew McCutchen, Pit	OF2	3	78	Matt Carpenter, StL	2B10	77
4	Paul Goldschmidt, Ari	1B1	4	79	Leonys Martin, Tex	OF36	84
5	Chris Davis, Bal	1B2	7	80	Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle	SS7	62
6	Robinson Cano, NYY	2B1	5	81	Aaron Hill, Ari	2B11	88
7	Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos	OF3	13	82	Alfonso Soriano, NYY	OF37	89
8	Joey Votto, Cin	1B3	9	83	Erick Aybar, LAA	SS8	86
9	Adam Jones, Bal	OF4	10	84	Kyle Seager, Sea	3B9	67
10	Adrian Beltre, Tex	3B2	14	85	J.J. Hardy, Bal	SS9	92
11	Jose Bautista, Tor	OF5	12	86	Anthony Rizzo, ChC	1B12	74
12	Carlos Gomez, Mil	OF6	6	87	Jimmy Rollins, Phi	SS10	81
13	Hanley Ramirez, LAD	SS1	11	88	David Wright, NYM	3B10	94
14	Edwin Encarnacion, Tor	1B4	8	89	Desmond Jennings, TB	OF38	85
15	Justin Upton, Atl	OF7	17	90	Pablo Sandoval, SF	3B11	82
16	Jose Reyes, Tor	SS2	19	91	A.J. Pierzynski, Tex	C8	96
17	Evan Longoria, TB	3B3	15	92	Yadier Molina, StL	C9	105
18	Bryce Harper, Wsh	OF8	16	93	Coco Crisp, Oak	OF39	93
19	Troy Tulowitzki, Col	SS3	18	94	Alexei Ramirez, CWS	SS11	104
20	Freddie Freeman, Atl	1B5	20	95	Norichika Aoki, Mil	OF40	91
21	Buster Posey, SF	C1	24	96	Adam Dunn, CWS	1B13	95
22	Prince Fielder, Det	1B6	25	97	Howie Kendrick, LAA	2B12	90
23	Matt Holliday, StL	OF9	32	98	Alejandro De Aza, CWS	OF41	99
24	Dustin Pedroia, Bos	2B2	23	99	Matt Kemp, LAD	OF42	101
25	Giancarlo Stanton, Mia	OF10	22	100	Justin Smoak, Sea	1B14	108
26	Adrian Gonzalez, LAD	1B7	35	101	Starlin Castro, ChC	SS12	97
27	Alex Rios, Tex	OF11	33	102	Josh Donaldson, Oak	3B12	106
28	Jay Bruce, Cin	OF12	26	103	Chris Johnson, Atl	3B13	107
29	Yasiel Puig, LAD	OF13	31	104	Adam LaRoche, Wsh	1B15	114
30	David Ortiz, Bos	DH1	29	105	Aramis Ramirez, Mil	3B14	126
31	Ian Desmond, Wsh	SS4	34	106	Mike Napoli, Bos	C10	98
32	Jean Segura, Mil	SS5	30	107	Jason Castro, Hou	C11	113
33	Curtis Granderson, NYY	OF14	45	108	Nate McLouth, Bal	OF43	112
34	Ian Kinsler, Tex	2B3	27	109	Chase Headley, SD	3B15	102
35	Allen Craig, StL	1B8	28	110	Matt Wieters, Bal	C12	110
36	Jose Altuve, Hou	2B4	38	111	Jed Lowrie, Oak	SS13	111
37	Eric Hosmer, KC	1B9	39	112	B.J. Upton, Atl	OF44	115
38	Domonic Brown, Phi	OF15	44	113	Justin Morneau, Min	1B16	121
39	Ben Zobrist, TB	2B5	49	114	Nolan Arenado, Col	3B16	119
40	Jason Kipnis, Cle	2B6	36	115	Nick Franklin, Sea	SS14	100
41	Yoenis Cespedes, Oak	OF16	48	116	Michael Brantley, Cle	OF45	109
42	Brandon Phillips, Cin	2B7	52	117	Josh Reddick, Oak	OF46	144
43	Carlos Gonzalez, Col	OF17	21	118	Andre Ethier, LAD	OF47	117
44	Wil Myers, TB	OF18	42	119	Nate Schierholtz, ChC	OF48	122
45	Carlos Beltran, StL	OF19	43	120	Brandon Belt, SF	1B17	133
46	Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh	3B4	37	121	Colby Rasmus, Tor	OF49	87
47	Elvis Andrus, Tex	SS6	53	122	Andrelton Simmons, Atl	SS15	116
48	Austin Jackson, Det	OF20	55	123	Yonder Alonso, SD	1B18	123
49	Jason Heyward, Atl	OF21	57	124	Mike Moustakas, KC	3B17	129
50	Michael Bourn, Cle	OF22	40	125	David Freese, StL	3B18	120
51	Manny Machado, Bal	3B5	46	126	Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Bos	C13	124
52	Michael Cuddyer, Col	OF23	51	127	Alex Rodriguez, NYY	3B19	135
53	Shin-Soo Choo, Cin	OF24	41	128	Salvador Perez, KC	C14	118
54	Starling Marte, Pit	OF25	54	129	Christian Yelich, Mia	1B19	136
55	Torii Hunter, Det	OF26	61	130	Michael Saunders, Sea	OF50	131
56	Chase Utley, Phi	2B8	60	131	Stephen Drew, Bos	SS16	137
57	Pedro Alvarez, Pit	3B6	47	132	Jedd Gyorko, SD	2B13	138
58	Jayson Werth, Wsh	OF27	71	133	Rajai Davis, Tor	OF51	125
59	Brett Lawrie, Tor	3B7	73	134	Russell Martin, Pit	C15	128
60	Hunter Pence, SF	OF28	59	135	Anthony Rendon, Wsh	2B14	132
61	Victor Martinez, Det	C2	65	136	Jonathan Villar, Hou	SS17	134
62	Alex Gordon, KC	OF29	69	137	Ichiro Suzuki, NYY	OF52	127
63	Martin Prado, Ari	3B8	72	138	Nick Markakis, Bal	OF53	130
64	Billy Butler, KC	1B10	76	139	Neil Walker, Pit	2B15	142
65	Joe Mauer, Min	C3	63	140	Oswaldo Arcia, Min	OF54	NR
66	Carlos Santana, Cle	C4	56	141	Ike Davis, NYM	1B20	NR
67	Kendrys Morales, Sea	1B11	64	142	Michael Morse, Sea	OF55	140
68	Josh Hamilton, LAA	OF30	50	143	Brandon Moss, Oak	1B21	145
69	Mark Trumbo, LAA	OF31	68	144	Darin Ruf, Phi	OF56	NR
70	Daniel Murphy, NYM	2B9	58	145	Will Venable, SD	OF57	NR
71	Wilin Rosario, Col	C5	75	146	Evan Gattis, Atl	C16	143
72	Carl Crawford, LAD	OF32	83	147	Adam Eaton, Ari	OF58	NR
73	Shane Victorino, Bos	OF33	80	148	Junior Lake, ChC	SS18	149
74	Dexter Fowler, Col	OF34	79	149	Dan Uggla, Atl	2B16	103
75	Brett Gardner, NYY	OF35	78	150	Mitch Moreland, Tex	1B22	NR

HacheMan · Aug 14, 2013

Dan Uggla out, but don't give up on him

Eric Karabell

The ESPN Player Rater deserves a look just about every day for one reason or another, perhaps to see how players compare, who's hot and who's not of late or sometimes just to see how far someone like Atlanta Braves second baseman Dan Uggla has fallen. After all, the guy is hitting .186 for the season, which is terrible for fantasy purposes. It's Adam Dunn-in-2011 like. No matter how many home runs a guy hits, that batting average will mitigate value. But sometimes you shouldn't look at the Rater, like if you don't care about batting average and just need the power, as I figure some Uggla owners do.

This is relevant today because Uggla hit the 15-day disabled list Tuesday because the team wants him to have corrective laser eye surgery. Hey, seems reasonable to me, and frankly, it explains quite a bit in retrospect. It's not like he has been limping around on a bad knee for months and needs a break. The guy can't see! The Braves have like a 40-game lead in the NL East anyway and are cruising into October. Uggla wouldn't need to miss more than two weeks, and really, since he was 2-for-32 with 14 strikeouts over his past 10 games, just about any minor leaguer could do better than that anyway.

<OFFER>In two weeks, you better bet Uggla becomes interesting again for fantasy owners; he'll be a factor in September. He was never a batting champion to begin with, but if we know the problem was his eyesight and if that issue is about to get fixed, then what's the problem? The guy serves an important role for many fantasy owners, the rare power-hitting middle infielder!

Pushing aside the batting average and many strikeouts (third in baseball), Uggla is one of only four middle infield-eligible hitters to have reached the 20-home run plateau, right there with Robinson Cano, J.J. Hardy and Troy Tulowitzki. I have a league in which I own the awesome Miguel Cabrera, so I can afford Uggla hitting .247 (his career mark) or even .220 (his 2012 mark) if it comes with power at a power-desperate position. The Braves hit for power and strike out of a lot, and it's not just Uggla. But they can live with Tyler Pastornicky and Paul Janish at second base for a few weeks, and I'd call this DL stint a gift for deep-league fantasy owners. Uggla wasn't playing well. He was hurting you. In a few weeks, I think that changes.

Fantasy owners in 10- and 12-team formats are probably going to continue to ditch Uggla. He's already on the most-dropped list, but was at 97 percent owned a week ago. However, this is a veteran player with a long track record of hitting for power at a position in which many are excited when a guy hits 10 homers for a season. He hit 30-plus blasts in five consecutive seasons before 2012 and was on pace to do so again this year, though this DL stint will likely end that threat. Or will it? He's capable of a nine-homer month. We know what Uggla is, and despite his many outs, he still ranks just outside the top 20 on the Player Rater among second baseman. At least he still provides power, unlike Mark Ellis and Mike Aviles, two fellows above him.

As for Pastornicky and Janish, unless you're living in the 1970s, when middle infielders weighed 140 pounds and bunted a lot, don't consider them for fantasy purposes. Those that owned Uggla and Los Angeles Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick (also on the DL) should be looking at the streaking Brian Dozier, Jedd Gyorko and the surprising DJ LeMahieu for immediate help, especially since Uggla and Kendrick aren't out long. Dozier had a quiet, hitless Tuesday, but he's the most-added middle infielder in ESPN leagues, having surpassed Boston Red Sox reclamation project Stephen Drew on Tuesday. I'll take Dozier. He has hit 12 home runs (three in the past week) and stolen nine bases. There aren't many infielders with double digits in home runs and steals. Gyorko was cruising along after a big May until needing a DL stint for a groin injury, and he hasn't hit well since returning. Of course, he has homered in consecutive games. LeMahieu had two more hits Tuesday, is hitting .278 and likes to steal bases. And he plays half his games in the best hitter's park around. Take a look for those fellows, but also see if you can keep Uggla owned for September, just in case.

HacheMan · Aug 14, 2013

Bits: Sorting out the Red Sox infield

Eric Karabell

For a 20-year-old who might not make an impact for the Boston Red Sox or fantasy owners until next season, Xander Bogaerts seems to be an awfully popular guy in AL-only and other deep formats. Not only do fantasy owners desperately want to know when this top left-side infield prospect will debut, but at which position he'll be playing. The organization claims Bogaerts will split time between shortstop and third base for Triple-A Pawtucket the next few weeks; he played the hot corner Tuesday, contributing three singles at the plate as well.

Oh, did I mention he's just 20? Colleague Jim Callis is quite fond of him, and I think he's a potential top-10 something in 2014, similar to Baltimore Orioles third baseman Manny Machado.

<OFFER>Bogaerts should end up at shortstop for the Red Sox. There's more intrinsic value there, and I trust incumbent third baseman Will Middlebrooks more for the long haul than shortstop Stephen Drew. The case can be made for either, though. Middlebrooks has had a miserable sophomore season, splitting time with the PawSox and the big club. He finally was promoted back to the majors last week, and has five hits in three games, including a single and double in Tuesday's win at Toronto. Middlebrooks singled in the 11th-inning rally and while it's a bit premature to call his swing fixed, it does look better than it did earlier this season. He's a swing-and-miss guy, and expecting last season's .288 batting average (in 267 at-bats) over a full season is pure folly, but he'll probably end up on some of my 2014 teams when others overlook him. I think he's capable of hitting .260 with 25 home runs and regard him as a decent addition even now for standard formats.

Then there's Drew, who is playing well and has become one of the most-added middle infielders in ESPN standard leagues. Drew is an acquired taste, it seems. I liked him when he was with the Arizona Diamondbacks, but it seems like most people gave up on him after the brutal ankle injury that ruined his past two seasons. He's hitting now, despite Tuesday's 0-for-5 outing; he's at .386 in August with a pair of home runs and eight RBIs, and it's legit. Hey, it's not Miguel Cabrera, but this is a shortstop, after all. Drew is capable of being a top-10 shortstop the rest of this season -- he's 23nd for the season on the Player Rater but missed many games -- and perhaps next year, though he may be doing so for another organization. Middlebrooks isn't going anywhere.

Bogaerts could be the next Machado in many ways, and nothing against what the Orioles did -- J.J. Hardy is much better than Drew in the field and at the plate -- but I think he'll play shortstop. And I think I'll be seeking to draft him late in 2014 drafts. As for 2013, it will take a Drew or Middlebrooks slump to get Bogaerts opportunity, and perhaps he'll initially struggle like Jurickson Profar has for the Texas Rangers, but expect occasional September at-bats, nothing major.

Box score bits (NL): Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez came off the DL Tuesday and went hitless in three at-bats. Ramirez, who missed five weeks because of a sore knee, isn't having a good season, but his track record is good, and he's still worth owning even in 10-team leagues. … Fellow Brewer Scooter Gennett, a diminutive second baseman who doesn't have much power, nevertheless smacked a pair of home runs in Tuesday's win at Texas. Frankly, it says more about right-hander Alexi Ogando, who allowed the blasts. Gennett does have the second base job, though, with Rickie Weeks out for the season, and should hit for average and run a bit. But don't get too excited. … The Pittsburgh Pirates unveiled minor league home run leader Andrew Lambo in right field Tuesday, and he was hitless in three at-bats. Lambo, who should share the position with Jose Tabata, obviously has big-time power, but will also swing and miss a lot and isn't likely to help your batting average. … Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips stole two bases Tuesday, which is awesome and timely and matched his season total from 109 games. I blogged about Phillips on Monday in relation to a possible lineup change, but it didn't happen Tuesday. Ryan Ludwick didn't start. Still, Phillips is capable of running if he wants to. Let's hope that's the case.

Box score bits (AL): Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Chris Archer was hit hard Tuesday, allowing nine hits and five runs, including two Brad Miller home runs in five innings. It was Archer's first outing since leaving his previous one with forearm tightness, and easy conjecture is he's still hurting. After all, in five July starts his ERA was 0.73. Wait one more outing, but be ready to run away. … You should have run from Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Josh Johnson a while ago; he hit the DL Tuesday with his own forearm tightness. That said, he still should be considered a sleeper bounce-back option in 2014 drafts. The talent is still there. … Minnesota Twins outfielder Josh Willingham slugged his 12th home run Tuesday, and his second since coming off the DL over the weekend. He's not likely to approach his 2012 home run total of 35, but he should be owned in more than a third of ESPN leagues. … New York Yankees outfielder Alfonso Soriano cracked a pair of home runs and knocked in six runs Tuesday, and he's well on his way to another 30-homer season. Don't ignore this guy in 2014, even though he'll be 38. … Uh oh, Oakland Athletics right-hander Bartolo Colon has now been hit hard in consecutive outings, with Tuesday's five-run outburst coming against the Houston Astros. That's not good. Colon had a 2.50 ERA entering August. Now it's 2.97. He's 40 with a low K rate, and you bet I'm running away.

HacheMan · Aug 18, 2013

Colabello, Lambo; top prospects

By Jim Callis | Baseball America

Chris Colabello and Andrew Lambo were so far off the prospect radar coming into the season that calling them "obscure" would have been a compliment. Yet now they're in position to help your fantasy team during the season's final six weeks.

Colabello spent the first eight seasons of his professional career in the independent Can-Am League, getting only a brief look from the Detroit Tigers in March 2006. After winning Can-Am MVP and Baseball America independent-league player of the year honors in 2011, he hooked on with the Twins. Colabello has hit .312/.388/.546 with 43 homers in 219 minor league games over the past two seasons -- he also drilled two homers for Italy in the World Baseball Classic -- to earn an opportunity in Minnesota at age 29.

<OFFER>Primarily a first baseman, Colabello has seen most of his time in right field and at DH, though he could move back to his regular position if the Twins trade Justin Morneau. Colabello, who has batted .221/.301/.372 with four homers and eight RBIs in 29 big league games, has above-average power to all parts of the park (all four of his homers have come to center or the opposite field). The question is whether he can make consistent enough contact to tap into it.</OFFER>

Colabello has struck out 27 times in 86 major league at-bats, though he has done a better job of managing the strike zone while hitting .273/.415/.485 in August. In the last quarter of the season, he could provide 5-7 homers with 15-20 RBIs and a batting average in the .250-.270 range.

Lambo had a better prospect pedigree than Colabello, but he took nearly as long to reach the big leagues. After the Dodgers drafted him in the fourth round out of a California high school in 2007, Baseball America ranked Lambo as Los Angeles' No. 1 prospect following the 2008 season. But Lambo's numbers dropped in 2009, and in 2010 he was suspended 50 games after a second positive drug test, believed to be marijuana, which he also was caught with as a high school sophomore.

Soon after the suspension, the Dodgers traded him and James McDonald to the Pirates for Octavio Dotel. Lambo did little to distinguish himself in his first 2 1/2 years in the Pittsburgh system, and hand injuries limited him to just 35 games in 2012. But he broke out this season, batting a combined .278/.350/.593 with 31 homers (second in the minors) between Double- and Triple-A to earn his first big league call-up Tuesday, two days after he turned 25.

The Pirates haven't gotten much production out of right field this season, so if Lambo hits, he could see regular playing time down the stretch even though he's an unheralded rookie on a contender. I see him as more of a guy having a career year (in the minor leagues) rather than a breakthrough, and his 123 strikeouts in 436 minor league at-bats this year are a concern. If he does get consistent at-bats in Pittsburgh, his upside matches that of Colabello: 5-7 homers, 15-20 RBIs and .250-.270 batting average.

Looking at their longer-term fantasy prospects, Colabello has a better chance to contribute next year. Even if the Twins don't trade Morneau this month, they're unlikely to re-sign him as a free agent, so Colabello looks like their Opening Day first baseman for 2014.

As for 2013, these are the 10 minor leaguers who have the best chance to help your fantasy team over the remainder of the season:

[h=3]1. Kolten Wong, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]Season totals: .303/.369/.466, 10 HR, 45 RBIs, 20 SB in 107 games at Triple-A Memphis.
Update: The best second base prospect in the minors, Wong has been absent from our fantasy top 10 list all year because he had no place to play for the Cardinals this year once Matt Carpenter transformed himself into an All-Star. But now St. Louis is making room for Wong; they plan on calling him up today in hopes he can upgrade both their offense and defense.
Prognosis: Carpenter likely will be shuttled between second and third base, and Wong will take some at-bats away from David Freese, who's having the worst season of his big league career. A first-round pick in 2011, Wong is a gifted hitter with a patient approach. He could hit in the .280 range with gap power, and he has the instincts to steal a few bases as well.

[h=3]2. Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B, Boston Red Sox (Last week's rank: 1)[/h]Season totals: .298/.379/.474, 9 HR, 32 RBIs, 2 SB in 57 games at Triple-A Pawtucket; .311/.407/.502, 6 HR, 35 RBIs, 5 SB in 56 games at Double-A Portland.
Update: Bogaerts continues to roll as the youngest player (age 20) in the International League. He hit safely in all six of his games in the past week, boosting his Triple-A OPS to .853 and his hitting streak to nine games. He also made another start at third base, his eighth at Pawtucket after never playing the hot corner before.
Prognosis: The Red Sox have scrapped a Brock Holt/Brandon Snyder platoon at third base and are giving Will Middlebrooks another chance. Middlebrooks has hit safely in all five of his starts since coming back up, allowing him to cross the Mendoza Line, but he also has struck out in six of his 18 at-bats, and he made a key defensive misplay in last night's loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. It says here that Boston's best third base option is Bogaerts, who's on the short list of the game's elite hitting prospects.

[h=3]3. Nick Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers (Last week's rank: 4)[/h]Season totals: .279/.352/.438, 13 HR, 64 RBIs, 4 SB in 119 games at Triple-A Toledo.
Update: Castellanos missed three games after a pitch struck him in the right arm last Saturday. He returned last night, going 2-for-5 and looking fully healthy.
Prognosis: As with Bogaerts, Castellanos offers an offensive upgrade to a team that seems destined for the playoffs. One of the minors' best pure hitters, he has improved his power and plate discipline this year, and he's a better left-field option for the Tigers than their current platoon of Andy Dirks and Matt Tuiasosopo.

[h=3]4. Tyler Skaggs, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week's rank: 6)[/h]Season totals: 6-8 record, 4.52 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 98 K's in 87 2/3 IP (16 games, 14 starts) at Triple-A Reno; 0-0 record, 4.76 ERA, 2.29 WHIP, 8 K's in 5 2/3 IP (one start) at high Class A Visalia.
Update: The Diamondbacks called up Skaggs for the fifth time this year on Monday, then sent him back to Triple-A on Wednesday without using him in a game. In his first extended outing in two weeks, he got knocked around Thursday, giving up 10 hits, three walks and six runs in 4 2/3 innings.
Prognosis: Trevor Cahill is coming off the disabled list, so Arizona doesn't have a rotation opening, at least for now. Its starters have had difficulty remaining effective and healthy this year, so a sixth promotion is likely in Skaggs' near future.

[h=3]5. Carlos Martinez, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]Season totals: 5-2 record, 2.05 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 48 K's in 57 IP (11 starts) at Triple-A Memphis; 1-0 record, 2.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9 K's in 11 2/3 IP (three starts) at Double-A Springfield.
Update: Martinez has had three stints in St. Louis this season, the first two as a reliever and the last one for an emergency start against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Aug. 8, during which his fastball reached 100 mph. Back in Triple-A for now, he won for the third time in four starts on Tuesday, allowing three earned runs in six innings.
Prognosis: The Cardinals currently are using fellow rookie Michael Wacha as a reliever, which could make it difficult to stretch him back out if they need rotation help this season. That makes Martinez the top candidate to step in should Jake Westbrook continue to falter or one of the other starters gets hurt.

[h=3]6. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: 7)[/h]Season totals: .261/.314/.355, 6 HR, 39 RBIs, 69 SB in 109 games at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: Hamilton is hitting Triple-A pitching more consistently now, going 8-for-24 (.333) in the past week to raise his season average to .261. He's still not drawing enough walks (only two this month) to take full advantage of his blazing speed, though.
Prognosis: Reds GM Walt Jocketty said the club hasn't discussed whether Hamilton will get a September call-up, but his speed and defense in center field could help Cincinnati's playoff push. Even with sporadic playing time, he could steal 10 bases in the final month.

[h=3]7. Travis d'Arnaud, C, New York Mets (Last week's rank: 9)[/h]Season totals: .304/.487/554, 2 HR, 12 RBIs, 0 SB in 19 games at Triple-A Las Vegas; .222/.300/.481, 1 HR, 3 RBIs, 0 SB in seven games at Double-A Binghamton; .318/.348/.455, 0 HR, 5 RBIs, 0 SB in six games in Rookie-level Gulf Coast League.
Update: After a foul tip broke his left foot in April, the game's best catching prospect didn't get back on the field until late July. D'Arnaud is making up for lost time at the launching pad that is Las Vegas, going 8-for-20 (.400) with a homer in the past week.
Prognosis: The Mets will promote d'Arnaud as soon as John Buck takes paternity leave for the birth of his third child, which should happen any day now. Buck has slumped since April and is a pending free agent, so he might not get his starting job back from d'Arnaud.

[h=3]8. Archie Bradley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week's rank: 8)[/h]Season totals: 9-5 record, 2.00 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 107 K's in 108 IP (18 starts) at Double-A Mobile; 2-0 record, 1.26 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 43 K's in 28 2/3 IP (five starts) at high Class A Visalia.
Update: Though Bradley has surpassed his previous career high for innings with 136 2/3, he seems to be getting stronger. He struck out 10 in seven innings last Friday, then followed that up by working the first five innings (with seven strikeouts) of a combined no-hitter Wednesday.
Prognosis: The Diamondbacks' playoff hopes are dwindling rapidly, but if the team heats back up, it could give Bradley a two-level promotion. If Arizona continues to slide, it might just decide not to add him to the 40-man roster because he doesn't have to be protected this offseason. He has more upside than Skaggs, and a late-season call-up would enhance Bradley's chances of cracking the Diamondbacks' 2014 rotation.

[h=3]9. George Springer, OF, Houston Astros (Last week's rank: 10)[/h]Season totals: .315/.431/.648, 14 HR, 43 RBIs, 15 SB in 46 games at Triple-A Oklahoma City; .297/.399/.579, 19 HR, 55 RBIs, 23 SB in 73 games at Double-A Corpus Christi.
Update: Springer hit four homers last week, taking over the minor league lead with 33 and becoming the minors' first 30-homer/30-steal player since Athletics outfielder Grant Desme four years ago. He also has made strides with his plate discipline, drawing more walks (14) than strikeouts (12) in August.
Prognosis: Springer definitely is the Astros' center fielder of the future, and that future is ready to begin now. The only thing standing in the way of an immediate call-up is that Houston doesn't have to add him to the 40-man roster after this season, and the Astros may not want to give up a spot if they don't have to.

[h=3]10. Mike Olt, 3B, Chicago Cubs (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]Season totals: .127/.179/.253, 2 HR, 4 RBIs, 0 SB in 21 games at Triple-A Iowa; .213/.317/.422, 11 HR, 32 RBI, 0 SB in 65 games at Triple-A Round Rock; .333/.333/.750, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB in three games at Double-A Frisco.
Update: Olt hasn't performed well at Triple-A since the Cubs acquired him from the Texas Rangers in the Matt Garza trade. His struggles have lasted for most of the year, starting with vision problems that may have stemmed from a beaning in the Dominican Winter League last offseason.
Prognosis: Though Olt is hitting just .196/.286/.393 overall in the minors, he's already on the 40-man roster and is the leading candidate to start at third base for Chicago in 2014. So the Cubs very well could promote him in September and see what he can do.

Called up (with last week's rank): Sonny Gray, SP, Oakland Athletics (2); Avisail Garcia, OF, Chicago White Sox (3); Michael Wacha, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (5).

HacheMan · Aug 19, 2013

The big picture: What we've learned in '13

Eric Karabell

While there have been myriad positive themes during the 2013 major league season, ranging from the greatness of Miguel Cabrera and Matt Harvey to the surprising Yasiel Puig and Chris Davis, the overriding big-picture story has unfortunately dealt with suspensions. Fantasy's No. 2 player on draft day in many leagues -- yes, Ryan Braun was often selected ahead of Mike Trout -- ended up playing in only 61 games. Others of varying statistical relevance, like elite base stealer Everth Cabrera and slugger Nelson Cruz, saw their seasons truncated not only because of errors in judgment, but also because baseball finally took a stand.

While fantasy owners can only guess who will be next on the suspension list, it's a troubling sidebar to simply researching BABIPs and xFIPs to help determine the players to covet and ignore next season. Put simply, this is what changed for fantasy owners: In the future, rumors about a certain player being connected to performance-enhancing drugs cannot be overlooked by fantasy owners aiming to seek value, because the risk that many of us -- my hand is raised -- believed wouldn't amount to much, certainly and emphatically did. And that's a shame.

<OFFER>That written, I still have Braun in the back end of my top 10 for 2014, trusting that his ability to provide an enticing balance of power and speed will win out. I also don't harbor ill will toward those suspended, even the ridiculous Alex Rodriguez, who just isn't that good anymore. Some players overcome the distractions around them and return to solid fantasy production. Others turn into Melky Cabrera. You'll drive yourself crazy trying to figure out what is what, but my opinion is each player is different, and since we have no idea who took what and when, don't try to guess the tangible effect on statistics. Just realize the risk of suspension is suddenly a more viable and realistic one than ever, as has been proved, and it likely will continue.

As for the good stuff, the amazing performances from four-plus months and what we've learned from it, we can still smile that this great game can't be ruined by scandals of varying sorts. Cabrera and Trout are indeed awesome, the former rising to even greater heights than in his historic Triple Crown season of 2012, and the latter proving that although regression was indeed warranted, he certainly has retained much of his value, as his No. 2 spot on the ESPN Player Rater has shown. Cabrera, Braun and Trout were the top three selections in most fantasy drafts, and two of them have held that value. There's plenty of greatness to go around if players just stay out of trouble!

Here are other big-ticket items from the fantasy baseball season so far that I'd call instructive for future analysis.

• The injuries never seem to end, and they can ruin seasons. Look at consensus first-round selections like Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp and Los Angeles Angels first baseman Albert Pujols. Let's just say they won't be top-10 options on draft day 2014. I happen to trust a return to big numbers for both players moving forward, citing track record, but their struggles from shoulder/ankle woes with Kemp to a season-long foot problem for Pujols remind us that even great players can't overcome physical ailments and save your season, so waiting for that to happen is folly. If you had believed in April that Pujols would not be healthy all year and you dealt him, good for you.

• The emergence of New York Mets right-hander Matt Harvey, a 17th-rounder in ESPN live drafts before the season, offers us a reminder that if you, the wise and prepared fantasy owner, really believe a young pitcher with a mere handful of big league starts to his credit is bound for immediate greatness, don't worry about his ADP and grab him before someone else does. I didn't have Harvey pegged for top-five status among all starting pitchers, but I did like him more than our consensus rankings. If you think someone like Cincinnati Reds strikeout lefty Tony Cingrani, for example, is bound for an All-Star Game start as soon as 2014, then ignore the rankings and move him way up your lists. We won't mind!

• Of course, there is no shortage of top starting pitching around. Starting pitching was dominant in 2012, but this season it has become even more so. To me, this only reinforces the strategy of keeping the awesome Clayton Kershaw out of the first round, the same way Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers might lead fantasy football in scoring, but it's about supply and demand. There aren't enough top reliable hitters, just as there aren't enough suitable running backs for starting, and there is plenty of pitching and top quarterback play. Kershaw is not going to be in my top 10; I acknowledge it doesn't make sense on the surface as he wins this season's NL Cy Young and MVP awards, but it's simply about value.

• Regression is an ugly and often misunderstood word. Trout isn't going to steal as many bases as he did in 2012, but how do the rest of his numbers look? Just fine, I'd say. Puig will be next season's poster boy for regression, primarily in batting average, but I wouldn't let him fall too far in drafts. Not everybody is going to end up with a BABIP near the league average. Puig could easily be like Ichiro Suzuki or Austin Jackson, players who regularly exceed typical BABIP rates.

• Similarly, untapped potential isn't a term players like to hear, but Baltimore's Davis always had the ability and power to do great things, it just took a bit longer to bear results. Think about Alex Gordon a few years ago, and look what Eric Hosmer finally did after a slow start this year. Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown seemed a lost cause back in March, but not any longer. And few could have projected Francisco Liriano to resurrect his career with the Pittsburgh Pirates quite like this, but the nonbelievers -- and I was one of them -- should never forget that if a player has the skills, even if those skills haven't surfaced in years, they can always return. It's somewhat about patience, but also being willing to take chances on talented players who have disappointed in the past. You might have little interest in Starlin Castro, B.J. Upton, Chase Headley or Brandon Morrow today, but their excellent skills could return them to fantasy greatness next season. Don't forget them.

• Top organizations like the St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays continue to remind us that if they're trying out something unconventional, they probably have good reason to do so, and it's worth a look for fantasy owners. A year ago, the Rays thought retread Fernando Rodney could close. He did. This year they were extra patient with outfielder Wil Myers, and he has been terrific. The Cardinals thought Matt Carpenter could not only handle second base regularly, but lead off. The All-Star is now on pace for more than 120 runs scored. Basically, I don't doubt the Cardinals or Rays.

• We should also remember that not all top prospects write their ticket to the Hall of Fame right away. Hey, Trout didn't. I'll remain confident that Texas Rangers switch-hitter Jurickson Profar does have multiple All-Star appearances in his future, and while Boston Red Sox shortstop prospect Xander Bogaerts is no lock for immediate glory, I'm still investing in 2014. Just be prepared for a slow start or to move on after a month or so, as many did this season with Profar. Same with Reds speedy prospect Billy Hamilton, should he get a starting role.

• Older, seemingly underwhelming closers always seem to find their way into saves, so it should be no surprise that Kevin Gregg and Francisco Rodriguez, among others, have been valuable in 2013. Perhaps they won't be saving many games in 2014, but the reminder is to add the pitcher in line for the saves regardless of how much you dislike him. I actually had to trade for Gregg in an NL-only format, and he still hasn't lost the job. It's incredible. Whichever team trusts him with the ninth inning in 2014 could get either 30 saves or a disaster. But fantasy owners have to add him regardless, even if he's next year's version of what Jose Valverde did this season. Hey, Valverde got chances!

• And finally, to end this on an upbeat note, we learned that waiting for David Ortiz to stop hitting is foolish, that Yu Darvish really can get better, that Hunter Pence could hit and run in San Francisco (and everywhere else), that the Mets' signing of Marlon Byrd was actually wise, that Carlos Gonzalez could hit like a champ on the road, that Bartolo Colon wasn't too old, that Hyun-Jin Ryu wasn't too new, that Ervin Santana wasn't too damaged and that Jose Fernandez wasn't too young. It's been an incredible season. Enjoy the rest of it with me!

HacheMan · Aug 19, 2013

Bits: Freese losing starts; Alexei hitting

Eric Karabell

Big league rosters expand in less than two weeks, and fantasy owners will see more interesting prospects get the call. The St. Louis Cardinals decided they didn't want to wait that long for second baseman Kolten Wong, summoning him from Triple-A Memphis before the weekend. Wong didn't do much in his two starts at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs, going hitless in eight at-bats, but make no mistake: As colleague Jim Callis noted in his Friday prospects report, the guy is legit and worth a deep-league look immediately.

Wong hit .303 for Memphis with 10 home runs (but 39 extra-base hits) and 20 stolen bases in 21 attempts, and if it wasn't for Matt Carpenter's All-Star season, we would have seen him months ago. Of course, now that Wong is up, one would assume he'll play, and that's bad news for David Freese owners. There remain a lot of Freese owners who have ignored the lack of production and trusted him based on name value. He began the weekend owned in more than 85 percent of leagues but outside the top 25 third basemen on the Player Rater. Freese has just one hit in his past 16 at-bats. Carpenter, by the way, is more than capable of handling second base or third base (or other spots, for that matter), and the weekend pattern suggests Wong and Freese are basically platooning. Wong bats left-handed, Freese right-handed. There are more right-handed pitchers in the league, by the way, so Freese is going to play less.

<OFFER>It's interesting that Freese has pretty even splits against pitchers no matter the hand they throw with, but for an owner in a deep keeper format, he could easily be the odd man out, not only down the stretch, but next season as well. The Cardinals enjoyed Freese's breakout 2012 for modest power and surprising health a season after he played a large role in their 2011 World Series championship. However, the Cardinals have proven wise in moving on from declining players before committing long term (see: Albert Pujols). Allen Craig has easily outperformed him since Pujols left town. Carlos Beltran remains productive, but with prospect Oscar Taveras seemingly ready and Matt Adams definitely ready (with Craig capable of handling first base or corner outfield), Beltran will likely be elsewhere in 2014. So will Freese, 30, who is neither a power hitter nor an excellent defender.

While we have third base on our minds, when you part with Freese in standard mixed leagues, you'll find several younger and readily available options with third-base eligibility, including Jedd Gyorko (also a second baseman), Anthony Rendon (same as Gyorko and hitting better of late), Nolan Arenado (hitting better this month) and Juan Francisco (he does have power). I'm not a Francisco fan by any means, and would only add him over Freese if I needed the power. Freese, with one home run in the past month, just hasn't provided it.

Box score bits (NL): Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Darin Ruf homered again Sunday, his eighth long ball in 35 games. Nobody's saying Ruf, 27, is a future star, but the power is legit and his OPS is .904. Give him 500 at-bats in 2014 and he could hit 25 home runs. … Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Khris Davis also homered again Sunday, his third of the week. Add him in deeper formats while he's hot. … Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Jose Tabata went 1-for-7 in Sunday's marathon loss. What's interesting is recent call-up Andrew Lambo wasn't there to help. Lambo was demoted to Triple-A Indianapolis prior to the game but was given only nine at-bats to prove himself. Keep him owned in NL-only formats if you can, for he should be back in two weeks when rosters expand. As for Tabata, he's nothing special. At least Lambo has power upside. … Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander J.J. Putz saved the win over the Pirates, but that doesn't mean he has returned to closing. Brad Ziegler, who tossed two perfect innings for the win, has allowed one run in his past 17 appearances. He has also earned wins in three of his past five games. He's looking safe as closer. … Atlanta Braves disappointment B.J. Upton stole his 11th base of the season Sunday, though his batting average fell to .186 with his 0-for-3 performance. Upton's last hit was 12 days ago. Sorry, it's just not getting any better.

Box score bits (AL): Chicago White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez homered and knocked in three runs Sunday, again doing so out of the No. 3 lineup slot. It's an odd spot for a shortstop slugging .376 on the season, but Ramirez has taken to it: He has three of his four home runs this season in the 47 at-bats there, with 11 RBIs. … Oakland Athletics lefty Tommy Milone started Sunday's game because right-hander Bartolo Colon, who entered the day 24th among all starting pitchers on the Player Rater, hit the disabled list because of a strained groin. Colon pitched poorly his past two outings, and his injury might explain it. Milone isn't worth a look unless it's an AL-only format and he's pitching at home; on Sunday, he went only 4⅔ innings and allowed six hits and three runs (one earned). … Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler hit his 12th home run Sunday, a ninth-inning solo shot off Detroit Tigers closer Joaquin Benoit. Butler isn't having the season we expected, but a .289 batting average and a pace for 16 home runs and 82 RBIs is not team-killing, even from a fourth-round pick. … Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Anthony Gose led off Sunday, hitting a single and stealing his first base of the season. Gose, who struck out in his other three bats, is likely to be overmatched as a big leaguer, but he can run. He stole 15 bases in 56 games for the Blue Jays last season and can do it again.

HacheMan · Aug 20, 2013

[h=1]Keep eye on Halladay, Verlander[/h][h=3]Plus notes on how to handle rookies Tony Cingrani, Jose Fernandez[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Ah, the challenges of a writer: Too many topics to discuss and not enough space to tackle them all. Or is there?

It's a busy time in the fantasy baseball world, and when there are many things to be said, I can suggest but one solution.

Make alphabet soup.

It's pretty self-explanatory: One topic for each of the 26 letters, each a quick-hitting spin. This way, we'll come close to discussing the most relevant names recently in the news. Let's get started, shall we?

A is for Astros closers. Leave it to the Houston Astros, because just when they find us an interesting saves candidate, that in the person of Chia-Jen Lo, they go and divvy up the duties. "I'll fluctuate between [Lo and Josh Fields] based on the workload previously leading up to that game," manager Bo Porter told the Houston Chronicle on Saturday. "But it's a good option to have both of those guys pitching well." Porter has a curious interpretation of "pitching well"; Fields has an 8.22 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in eight appearances in August and Lo has 6 1/3 shutout innings of a 0.95 WHIP in six games in the month. Lo is also the one with a bit harder fastball and a more effective curveball. Fantasy owners might be intrigued should Lo earn a full-time nod in the role, but in a split of the duties, this is the problem: The Astros have won just eight of 30 games since the All-Star break, meaning an already minimal number of chances are diluted further.

B is for Beachy. How many times can I reiterate my interest in Brandon Beachy the remainder of this year? The Atlanta Braves' schedule was discussed in detail in last week's edition, and Beachy now has three consecutive quality starts. He's still available in 13.8 percent of ESPN leagues.

C is for Cingrani. Perhaps you haven't noticed, but in his past four starts, Tony Cingrani has a 1.54 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 12.34 strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio, and during that time he faced the National League's No. 1 (St. Louis Cardinals) and 4 lineups (Los Angeles Dodgers) in terms of wOBA (weighted on-base average). Perhaps more important, Cingrani continues to flash just enough of his breaking pitches to offer encouragement that any adjustment period is in the rearview: His curve and slider combined have limited opponents to a .032 batting average with 15 K's in 32 plate appearances that ended with one. If that continues and Cingrani feels more comfortable leaning on them to diversify his arsenal in coming weeks, that'd ease worries that he's too reliant upon fastball velocity and deception. Perhaps the best news yet: Johnny Cueto has been slow to recover from a strained right lat and is running out of time on the minor league calendar for an obvious rehabilitation assignment place; Cueto might have to settle for a relief role in September as he works back to full strength.

D is for Delgado. He might not have eye-popping numbers or the stuff to mount a serious run at top-40 status, but Randall Delgado warrants more attention for his recent performance than he has received. Since joining the Arizona Diamondbacks' rotation June 18 -- that originally ticketed a mere one-and-done spot start -- he has seven quality starts, a 3.69 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The critical improvement Delgado has made is this: He has walked 1.90 batters per nine during that span, down substantially from the 3.95 he averaged in the majors from 2011-12 or 3.56 he averaged during his minor league career.

E is for Estrada. Though his team (Milwaukee Brewers) no longer garners much attention, having sunk to last place in the National League Central, Marco Estrada has quietly restored much of his fantasy appeal since his return from a hamstring strain. He has a 2.65 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in three starts since being activated, but here's the most encouraging part: He has 12 K's and just one walk. That's the kind of control he flashed during his breakout 2012 campaign (4.93 K's per walk), and he's available in nearly 90 percent of ESPN leagues.

F is for Farquhar. Anyone care to guess the top four pure closers on our Player Rater the past 30 days? Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen are the easy ones, and Greg Holland might not be a difficult one to guess. Here's the one you might have missed: Danny Farquhar of the Seattle Mariners. The reinvented right-hander -- he was formerly a sidearmer who now works more over the top -- has seven saves in eight tries with a 1.46 ERA in his past 10 appearances, whiffing 19 batters and walking one. Though he's unlikely to maintain such a torrid pace, he's a pitcher whose skills improvement makes him an excellent bet to both stick in the closer role as well as have a chance at top-15 closer value going forward.

G is for Gerrit. Gerrit Cole might have a mere 3.86 ERA since the All-Star break, but has anyone noticed that he has 27 K's in 30 1/3 innings during that span? How about that he has thrown his slider -- a filthy one at that -- 23.7 percent of the time, up considerably from the 8.2 percent he did in his first seven games? Cole seems to be developing as a prospect, and while the Pittsburgh Pirates have discussed the idea of shifting him to the bullpen to keep his innings in check, he's looking more and more attractive a keeper-league prospect. There's a legitimate chance he might make a run at top-30 status come 2014.

H is for Halladay. Who'd have guessed that one of 2013's most intriguing late-season sleepers could be … 2012's No. 1 starting pitcher in terms of ADP, Roy Halladay? Yes, Halladay's 18.0 ESPN ownership percentage in puts him in that category -- in our standard game at least -- as he tossed a rehabilitation quality start for the Philadelphia Phillies' Gulf Coast League affiliate Aug. 15, will make another Tuesday for Class A Lakewood and could soon be ready to join the big club. Halladay's fastball did reside in the 86-88 mph range Aug. 15, meaning it's no greater than it was before surgery to repair his labrum and rotator cuff, but that's still a "first-start-back" measure. Might it increase in Turn 2 on Tuesday? The next 24 hours could tell us quite a bit about his rest-of-2013 prospects.

I is for innings cap. Miami Marlins rookie standout Jose Fernandez is approaching his, the six innings he threw Monday bringing his season total to 145 2/3. All indications are that the team will afford him a maximum of 170 frames; the team's official website theorized Monday, while noting that no firm shutdown date has been set, that Fernandez should approach 170 around Sept. 4. That means three lost weeks from the right-hander, who is the No. 10 starting pitcher on our Player Rater, and a lot of panicky owners in head-to-head leagues. The question has been frequently asked, and here's the answer: Don't cut Fernandez. Anything he'll give you between now and Labor Day grants you greater value comparative to replacement than the value differential between the fill-ins available today and in September. In short, it'd be smarter to run the risk of riding Fernandez to playoff qualification, then streaming starters in his absence, than cutting him today for the slim prospect that his replacement is an every-start September option. Playoff matchups can be won by only streaming; it's merely more work.

J is for Jim Johnson. Specifically, it's for Jim Johnson's recent struggles. Johnson has blown three consecutive save chances and allowed a run in four straight appearances, sending out scads of warning signs to panicky fantasy owners. Their concerns are understandable, considering he has had difficulty locating his sinker -- he has afforded two home runs on sinkers that failed to sink since the All-Star break -- and he had a similar rough spell the middle of last year (11.70 ERA in 12 games in July). That said, Johnson still possesses a 3.27 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with six successful saves since the break, so he hasn't been completely awful. Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter hasn't given any indication that a change is imminent, but it's not a bad idea for owners with deep benches to insure their Orioles saves investment. Based upon recent usage patterns, Tommy Hunter, he of the 2.67 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, seems like the guy to get.

K is for K's, or Kevin Gregg's inability to record them of late. In 13 appearances since the All-Star break, the Chicago Cubs closer is 8-for-10 in save chances with a 2.57 ERA, but also only six K's compared to 10 walks. Ten walks in 14 innings! Gregg lacks the raw swing-and-miss stuff that's typical of a closer, and with the Cubs playing for the future, it's possible they might test younger choices in the role, whether they sneak the veteran through waivers or not. After all, consider that both Blake Parker (2.41 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) and Pedro Strop (2.41 and 0.80) have outpitched him since July 1.

L is for Locke. Some regression was inevitable with Jeff Locke, but a 5.58 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in six starts since the All-Star break represents an extreme degree of it, too much so for fantasy owners to keep him in their lineups. During that time he has 21 walks in 30 2/3 innings; remember that this is a pitcher who averaged 2.47 walks per nine innings during his minor league career. Could Locke be tiring? Perhaps, considering that his pace of 182 2/3 innings would set a new professional high. His FIP tells the true tale: His 3.86 shows that his true, rest-of-year value might be, at best, that of a matchups type.

M is for Mujica. The No. 4 pure relief pitcher on our Player Rater, Edward Mujica indeed has been one of 2013's biggest fantasy surprises. But word this past weekend that he was suffering from fatigue might trouble his owners, so he makes the list as cause for encouragement. Mujica returned to action Monday to convert his 32nd save in 34 chances. It's odd that fatigue would be mentioned; the right-hander is on pace for 71 2/3 innings, a slightly high total for a modern closer, yet still shy of his innings totals of 2011 (76) or 2009 (93 2/3). Besides, there isn't an obvious fill-in, as next-in-line reliever Trevor Rosenthal is actually on a greater innings pace (76 1/3) and might be equally fatigued.

N is for Nova. Ivan Nova is riding a streak of seven consecutive quality starts, and in nine games since rejoining the New York Yankees' rotation he has a 2.23 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 4.07 K-to-walk ratio. With Nova it's always about spotting his breaking pitches; his 53 percent miss rate on curves and sliders is second best among pitchers with at least 10 starts. He's available in 31.6 percent of ESPN leagues and is well worth a look, even if this is mere streak-chasing.

O is for Oberholtzer. Though Houston Astros left-hander Brett Oberholtzer is on an incredible run -- he has four consecutive quality starts facing the Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels -- he remains more of a mirage than a true pickup. Take a look at his FIP/xFIP stats: He has a 3.42 FIP, which is good, but his 4.47 xFIP is much more troubling for such an extreme fly-baller (his rate is 50.9 percent). Consider the matchups if you wish, but success in his case against such elite lineups was much more the product of luck than skill.

P is for Pirates closers. Jason Grilli, initially ticketed to miss 4-8 weeks when he was diagnosed with a strained flexor muscle in his forearm in late July, might soon make the Pittsburgh Pirates' ninth-inning picture interesting. According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Grilli might resume throwing from the mound later in the week, and it's possible he'll be ready to reclaim his old role when rosters expand Sept. 1. So who might close for the team in September? Mark Melancon is 6-for-7 in save chances with a 0.82 ERA in Grilli's absence, but there's little doubt that this team's bullpen ranked among the game's best with Melancon in the eighth and Grilli the ninth. Perhaps Grilli will be worked back in as a setup man initially upon activation, but I'd bet it'll be his role the final three weeks.

Q is for quality starts. Many have discussed Travis Wood's quality-start dominance this season, but were you aware that, since July 1, Derek Holland's eight quality starts rank second in the league? Holland actually has nine quality starts in his past 10 tries, and a 2.28 ERA, 1.15 WHIP during that span. What's more, he has increased his K-to-walk ratio for the third consecutive season, further evidence that he's growing as a pitcher. A pitcher with a 3.23 ERA after Sept. 1 from 2010-12, Holland might be the sneakiest top-30 candidate out there the rest of this year.

R is for Ross. Who is Tyson Ross? It has been a popular question during the past week, after the San Diego Padres right-hander strung together five consecutive quality starts (1.32 ERA, 0.79 WHIP) since joining their rotation following the All-Star break. Picked up in a beneath-the-radar November trade with the Oakland Athletics, Ross was a similar spark plug fill-in for his former team in 2011, posting a 2.61 ERA in six starts before succumbing to an oblique injury that May. As a ground-baller who possesses a good slider and calls Petco Park his home, Ross might yet have some short-term fantasy appeal, perhaps even through season's end. Be forewarned, though, that he has a checkered injury history and his command can waver at times. This is short-term speculating, but at least fantasy owners in need of that can find him available in 64.2 percent of ESPN leagues.

S is for September standout… Homer Bailey. Bailey is owned in every ESPN league and currently ranks the No. 30 starting pitcher on our Player Rater. His September track record borders on absurd. Consider that in 28 career regular-season starts from Sept. 1 forward, Bailey has a 2.88 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 9.12 K's-per-nine ratio, plus a no-hitter (Sept. 28, 2012), by far his best numbers in any single month. It can be fairly argued that he'll be the de facto ace of a surging team -- 11 wins in their past 15 games -- that still has its sights on the National League Central title, and one that faces nothing but below-average offenses the final three weeks of the season.

T is for "The Thing," which, per the Tampa Bay Times, is what Jeremy Hellickson calls the splitter-changeup that has transformed Alex Cobb into one of the game's breakout players of 2013. After missing two months recovering from a concussion, Cobb tossed five innings of one-run, three-hit baseball in his return to the rotation Aug. 15, showing every bit as polished a skill set as he possessed before getting hurt: plenty of ground balls, plenty of swings and misses. As for that "Thing," check out its performance this season: .209/.265/.301 triple-slash rates allowed, 28 percent miss rate, 43 of his 82 K's.

U is for under-owned starting pitcher: Jarrod Parker (79.5 percent owned). It still amazes me that Parker isn't claimed in every ESPN league, and the only logical explanation is that his season stats, which were dragged down by a poor first five starts, continue to mask his true talent. So let's shave off those five: He has 17 quality starts (second most during that span), nine wins (14th), a 2.93 ERA (18th among qualifiers) and 1.04 WHIP (seventh) since April 30. The Oakland Athletics also continue to do a brilliant job keeping his workload in check; he's on pace for 203 1/3 innings and hasn't thrown more than 108 pitches in a game.

V is for Verlander. Perhaps this 2013 version of Justin Verlander is the new, permanent version. His "struggles" have now extended 19 starts; he has eight wins, 11 quality starts, a 4.26 ERA and 1.43 WHIP during that span. At what point can a sample no longer be classified small? Verlander's fastball, for the season, has averaged 93.1 mph, marking the fourth consecutive year in which it has declined. He has thrown 224 1/3, 271 1/3, 266 2/3 and 166 2/3 (pace of 217 2/3), postseason included, during those seasons, so a small decline in performance shouldn't come as a complete shock. I once said "95 percent of Verlander is still a top-10 starter;" if he's, say, 85-90 percent of what he once was, isn't his current ranking more correct?

W is for Wilson. "The Beard," Brian Wilson, is back, activated by the Los Angeles Dodgers Monday to serve in a setup capacity. But should fantasy owners really care? Wilson, who succumbed to Tommy John surgery in April 2012, was hitting 91 mph with his fastball during his rehabilitation assignment, still a few ticks below where he was during his San Francisco Giants heyday. He's more name than true value, but based upon reputation at least warrants monitoring, if you're a Kenley Jansen owner in a deep-mixed or NL-only league.

X is for X (OK, "ex") closer with his eye set on future saves. So I stretched the rules on this one, so what. The point is to get Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander J.J. Putz, their closer to begin the season, into this space. Since returning from the DL in June, he has one save and six holds in eight chances, a 1.15 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, statistics that should be plenty to get him another opportunity to close … if the Diamondbacks need him. No, Brad Ziegler hasn't had any issues as closer or given the team any reason to change their roles, but he does still lack that dominating pitch to use against left-handed hitters (their OPS against him is 162 points higher than that of righties). With even the briefest cold spell, the Diamondbacks might entertain a change with Putz pitching this well.

Y is for Yankees "ace" CC Sabathia. Judging by Sabathia's recent returns, perhaps the label of "ace" should be applied to Hiroki Kuroda instead? Sabathia has just three wins, four quality starts, a 6.16 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in his past 10 starts, serving up an alarming 11 home runs during that span. While his average fastball velocity has picked up in recent turns -- he has averaged 92.0 mph with it since the All-Star break -- it remains shy of the numbers of his heyday -- he averaged 93.7 mph with it in 2011 as a whole. Sabathia's stuff is no longer as electric, opponents are squaring up his pitches more effectively, evidenced by his 25.8 percent line-drive rate since the break, and his New York Yankees face one of the worst schedules for pitchers the rest of the way.

Z is for Zimmermann and his so-so K rate. Jordan Zimmermann has been a frustrating pitcher to own of late, two of his six outings since the All-Star break poor, and the result overall a 6.75 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. Unfortunately, it's such rough patches that depress his fantasy appeal, and it's all because of his K's: His 121 are second fewest of any of the top-20 pure starting pitchers on our Player Rater. In Zimmermann's defense, his FIP/xFIP (3.59/3.52) remain right in line with his numbers of 2011-12, evidence that this might be a mere rough spell rather than declining skills. Still, his owners need be picky with his remaining matchups.

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[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>	Player	<CENTER>Pos Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk</CENTER>
1	Clayton Kershaw, LAD	SP1	1	76	R.A. Dickey, Tor	SP53	67
2	Max Scherzer, Det	SP2	3	77	John Lackey, Bos	SP54	72
3	Yu Darvish, Tex	SP3	2	78	Mark Melancon, Pit	RP24	77
4	Felix Hernandez, Sea	SP4	4	79	Ricky Nolasco, LAD	SP55	81
5	Adam Wainwright, StL	SP5	5	80	Travis Wood, ChC	SP56	78
6	David Price, TB	SP6	7	81	Tim Lincecum, SF	SP57	73
7	Stephen Strasburg, Wsh	SP7	6	82	Gerrit Cole, Pit	SP58	83
8	Zack Greinke, LAD	SP8	9	83	Ivan Nova, NYY	SP59	94
9	Madison Bumgarner, SF	SP9	8	84	Jhoulys Chacin, Col	SP60	90
10	Craig Kimbrel, Atl	RP1	10	85	Brad Ziegler, Ari	RP25	89
11	Matt Harvey, NYM	SP10	11	86	Zack Wheeler, NYM	SP61	82
12	Kenley Jansen, LAD	RP2	13	87	Rick Porcello, Det	SP62	86
13	Aroldis Chapman, Cin	RP3	14	88	Rafael Betancourt, Col	RP26	101
14	Jered Weaver, LAA	SP11	12	89	Ian Kennedy, SD	SP63	85
15	Chris Sale, CWS	SP12	17	90	Dan Haren, Wsh	SP64	98
16	Homer Bailey, Cin	SP13	20	91	Jeremy Hellickson, TB	SP65	84
17	Mat Latos, Cin	SP14	19	92	A.J. Griffin, Oak	SP66	88
18	Mike Minor, Atl	SP15	16	93	Kevin Gregg, ChC	RP27	91
19	Anibal Sanchez, Det	SP16	21	94	Jorge De La Rosa, Col	SP67	109
20	Cliff Lee, Phi	SP17	18	95	Rex Brothers, Col	RP28	87
21	Cole Hamels, Phi	SP18	23	96	Alex Wood, Atl	SP68	104
22	Justin Verlander, Det	SP19	15	97	LaTroy Hawkins, NYM	RP29	105
23	Hiroki Kuroda, NYY	SP20	22	98	Bud Norris, Bal	SP69	99
24	Matt Garza, Tex	SP21	24	99	David Robertson, NYY	RP30	95
25	Greg Holland, KC	RP4	26	100	Chris Archer, TB	SP70	92
26	Francisco Liriano, Pit	SP22	29	101	Felix Doubront, Bos	SP71	97
27	Julio Teheran, Atl	SP23	34	102	Dillon Gee, NYM	SP72	112
28	Gio Gonzalez, Wsh	SP24	25	103	Randall Delgado, Ari	SP73	115
29	Matt Cain, SF	SP25	30	104	Mike Leake, Cin	SP74	96
30	Joe Nathan, Tex	RP5	27	105	Trevor Cahill, Ari	SP75	110
31	James Shields, KC	SP26	33	106	Dan Straily, Oak	SP76	106
32	Mariano Rivera, NYY	RP6	28	107	Ryan Cook, Oak	RP31	102
33	Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD	SP27	42	108	Scott Kazmir, Cle	SP77	108
34	Lance Lynn, StL	SP28	32	109	Paul Maholm, Atl	SP78	107
35	Patrick Corbin, Ari	SP29	36	110	Andrew Cashner, SD	SP79	122
36	Grant Balfour, Oak	RP7	39	111	Jason Grilli, Pit	RP32	121
37	Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh	SP30	35	112	Ryan Dempster, Bos	SP80	103
38	Fernando Rodney, TB	RP8	40	113	Dane De La Rosa, LAA	RP33	114
39	Jarrod Parker, Oak	SP31	61	114	Jacob Turner, Mia	SP81	116
40	Jake Peavy, Bos	SP32	31	115	Edwin Jackson, ChC	SP82	111
41	Jeff Samardzija, ChC	SP33	38	116	Jeff Locke, Pit	SP83	100
42	Doug Fister, Det	SP34	44	117	Tyson Ross, SD	SP84	NR
43	CC Sabathia, NYY	SP35	45	118	Sonny Gray, Oak	SP85	145
44	Derek Holland, Tex	SP36	52	119	Mark Buehrle, Tor	SP86	120
45	Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea	SP37	49	120	Yovani Gallardo, Mil	SP87	128
46	Glen Perkins, Min	RP9	43	121	Marco Estrada, Mil	SP88	146
47	A.J. Burnett, Pit	SP38	46	122	Jonathon Niese, NYM	SP89	NR
48	Chris Perez, Cle	RP10	47	123	Jordan Walden, Atl	RP34	113
49	Edward Mujica, StL	RP11	50	124	Wei-Yin Chen, Bal	SP90	123
50	Jose Fernandez, Mia	SP39	48	125	Bruce Chen, KC	SP91	133
51	Sergio Romo, SF	RP12	56	126	Erasmo Ramirez, Sea	SP92	137
52	Alex Cobb, TB	SP40	54	127	Brett Anderson, Oak	SP93	139
53	Rafael Soriano, Wsh	RP13	37	128	Bronson Arroyo, Cin	SP94	NR
54	Matt Moore, TB	SP41	51	129	Bartolo Colon, Oak	SP95	75
55	Jim Johnson, Bal	RP14	41	130	A.J. Ramos, Mia	RP35	117
56	Shelby Miller, StL	SP42	53	131	Trevor Rosenthal, StL	RP36	124
57	Addison Reed, CWS	RP15	59	132	Martin Perez, Tex	SP96	140
58	Jon Lester, Bos	SP43	60	133	Brandon McCarthy, Ari	SP97	130
59	Huston Street, SD	RP16	64	134	Junichi Tazawa, Bos	RP37	141
60	Kyle Lohse, Mil	SP44	57	135	Jose Veras, Det	RP38	126
61	Koji Uehara, Bos	RP17	70	136	Scott Feldman, Bal	SP98	NR
62	Joaquin Benoit, Det	RP18	71	137	Samuel Deduno, Min	SP99	125
63	Tony Cingrani, Cin	SP45	76	138	Ernesto Frieri, LAA	RP39	135
64	Kris Medlen, Atl	SP46	69	139	Tommy Milone, Oak	SP100	136
65	Danny Farquhar, Sea	RP19	93	140	J.J. Putz, Ari	RP40	NR
66	Ervin Santana, KC	SP47	55	141	Eric Stults, SD	SP101	127
67	C.J. Wilson, LAA	SP48	58	142	Drew Smyly, Det	RP41	132
68	Jonathan Papelbon, Phi	RP20	62	143	Chia-Jen Lo, Hou	SP102	NR
69	Wade Miley, Ari	SP49	63	144	Jason Vargas, LAA	SP103	131
70	Steve Cishek, Mia	RP21	74	145	Chris Rusin, ChC	SP104	150
71	Justin Masterson, Cle	SP50	65	146	Tommy Hunter, Bal	RP42	NR
72	Chris Tillman, Bal	SP51	66	147	Wily Peralta, Mil	SP105	129
73	Casey Janssen, Tor	RP22	68	148	Andy Pettitte, NYY	SP106	NR
74	Brandon Beachy, Atl	SP52	80	149	Brett Cecil, Tor	RP43	142
75	Jim Henderson, Mil	RP23	79	150	Pedro Strop, ChC	RP43	147

HacheMan · Aug 20, 2013

Injury updates: CarGo, Cueto, Halladay

Stephania Bell

The fantasy baseball season is entering the final turn. Some teams are pushing for a playoff spot while others are just trying to save some semblance of pride. Either way, there are some injuries that still could have fantasy impact. Here are a few to consider, keeping in mind all projected return timelines should be considered fluid.

Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies (placed on DL Aug. 5): Gonzalez sprained the middle finger on his right hand when he took a hard swing. After fighting through it for a period of time, then aggravating it in early August, the team decided to give him a more extended rest in the hopes the affected ligament would heal. The small collateral ligaments provide stability to the joints of the fingers and the persistent injury caused Gonzalez significant discomfort, altering the way he was able to grip and swing the bat. Depending on the degree of injury, the healing time is variable but typically involves weeks, not days, hence the decision to give him extended down time. During his DL stint, Gonzalez has been relegated to activities that do not involve swinging the bat in order to give his finger the best opportunity to recover.
Now, after 15 days, the time has come to test it. Gonzalez won’t be returning to the lineup yet; the preliminary test is simply swinging a bat. According to the Denver Post, that will happen Wednesday, and the Rockies will see how his finger responds. Not that one test will tell the whole tale. After all, Gonzalez had moments where he was hitting the ball well in July but the injury would flare up intermittently. That theoretically still could happen if the ligament has not fully healed. Unfortunately, the only way to find out is to test with the activity.

If Gonzalez responds well on his first day swinging, the expectation is that his activity will be increased during the next few days to see how his finger responds to cumulative stress. The Rockies understandably have issued no timetable and will wait to see how Wednesday’s session goes. The hope is that he is further along in the healing process and that even if the finger still requires supportive taping, it will be of more assistance now than it was previously. If Gonzalez is able to hit consistently without discomfort, he could be a nice rejuvenation to any lineup.
Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds (placed on DL June 29, no return timetable): For anyone who was still holding out some hope for a late season return by Cueto, the curtain is starting to drop. To be fair, when Cueto went on the DL for the third time this year with a strained latissimus dorsi muscle, the Reds acknowledged it might be an issue for the remainder of the season. The latest tests administered by the team would seem to confirm that notion. According to the Cincinnati Enquirer, Cueto’s most recent MRI shows about 75 percent healing of the lat. Translation: Not healed enough to begin throwing.

On the positive side, Cueto has reportedly made strength gains, so his rehab program is progressing. He will continue with the strengthening for now in the hopes that he can eventually progress to throwing. If he is able to make enough strides to potentially return to the mound, it will likely be too late for fantasy owners. After two months of not throwing, Cueto would have a ways to go to increase his arm strength sufficiently to return to the team in any role. For fantasy owners who have been hanging on in the hopes of September help, it’s time to look elsewhere.
Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (placed on DL May 6): Halladay has been out of view since he underwent surgery to address a partial rotator cuff tear and frayed labrum in his right (throwing) shoulder on May 16. In the past week, however, Halladay has resurfaced, making his first rehab start in Clearwater for the Phillies' Gulf Coast League team. Considering the extent of the surgery on his throwing shoulder, a first outing of six innings was an impressive debut. While the competition was not nearly big league caliber and Halladay’s velocity was not big league ready, the fact he was able to throw for that long and, most importantly, without any undue soreness post-outing, is a strong indicator that Halladay is indeed likely to return this season.

He is slated to make his second rehab start Tuesday at the next level of competition for the Class A Lakewood Blueclaws. The expectation is that he will go a little deeper in terms of innings; the hope is that he will be able to turn up the velocity as well. How he fares in this outing likely will determine the next step, but it appears Halladay could be joining his major league teammates by the end of the month, just as he predicted. It’s not out of the question that he could deliver a few quality starts in September as his strength on the mound improves.