GS, sorry about the tough year. Week 1 was good to me but weeks 2 and 3 have been like getting a vasectomy with a rusty butter knife. From you inital post you have a few/all the games I like. I like Georgia but they are tough to bet, they are almost as flakey as Clemson and it's really hard to back them but I think I am going to. I also like Buffalo, Temple laying points, are you serious??? I like BC as a dog along with Oregon St. and S. Miss but I might take the over instead in the S. Miss KU game. Better luck my friend, you will find your groove, the law of averages says so.
Army (+9.5) over Iowa State **
My first true "running dog" play of the week. Iowa State got their first road win for the first time in I don't care to remember. But Kent State was pretty banged up for that game in missing their QB and RB. On top of that, KSU was a terrible running team. So it may not have made any difference. But this week they are playing an excellent running team in Army. A team who is averaging 4.7 ypc and giving up only 2.6. So this is statistically the best rushing team that ISU has faced this season, including Iowa. And with Iowa State giving up 4.3 ypc on defense, it definitely makes Army a play. Army has been pretty tough this year. In their only defeat they had a 10-0 lead over Duke and for all practical purposes should have won the game. They didn't cover but beat Ball State last week. But Army is a much better team when they are playing on the road as dogs. Especially nearly DD dogs like they are here. And they've been known to give these BCS teams fits. They took Texas A&M to the wire last season and in 2006. And they were 4-1 ATS on the road as dogs last year. And in my opinion Army is a better team this year. Iowa State on the other hand is a terrible team as a favorite. Especially this big of a favorite. They are only 3-10 ATS the last 5 years as faves. And since Dan McCarney left they are only 1-4 ATS as favorites. I really like Army here. And it wouldn't surprised me if this ground team outrushes ISU and gets the upset.
My first true "running dog" play of the week. Iowa State got their first road win for the first time in I don't care to remember. But Kent State was pretty banged up for that game in missing their QB and RB. On top of that, KSU was a terrible running team. So it may not have made any difference. But this week they are playing an excellent running team in Army. A team who is averaging 4.7 ypc and giving up only 2.6. So this is statistically the best rushing team that ISU has faced this season, including Iowa. And with Iowa State giving up 4.3 ypc on defense, it definitely makes Army a play. Army has been pretty tough this year. In their only defeat they had a 10-0 lead over Duke and for all practical purposes should have won the game. They didn't cover but beat Ball State last week. But Army is a much better team when they are playing on the road as dogs. Especially nearly DD dogs like they are here. And they've been known to give these BCS teams fits. They took Texas A&M to the wire last season and in 2006. And they were 4-1 ATS on the road as dogs last year. And in my opinion Army is a better team this year. Iowa State on the other hand is a terrible team as a favorite. Especially this big of a favorite. They are only 3-10 ATS the last 5 years as faves. And since Dan McCarney left they are only 1-4 ATS as favorites. I really like Army here. And it wouldn't surprised me if this ground team outrushes ISU and gets the upset.
linebets...Something else that I didn't mention here that favors Army is they are +3 in turnover margin this season while Iowa State is -3. A 6 TO margin differential is pretty big this early in the season. A lot of times when I see teams with similar numbers I look for the turnover margin. And it's obvious that ISU either isn't taking care of the ball in their new offense or their defense isn't causing any turnovers, or both. It will more than likely continue here. Plus here is an article on the Clones that makes me like the play even more.
Banks among 3 suspended by Cyclones
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By Tim Griffin
ESPN.com
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Three Iowa State football players have been indefinitely suspended after they were charged with marijuana possession.
Starting cornerback Kennard Banks, defensive end Cleyon Laing and linebacker Kevin Hamlin all were indefinitely suspended on Tuesday, according to Iowa State spokesman Tom Kroeschell.
All three players turned themselves into Iowa State University police before they were booked on warrants issued by the Central Iowa Drug Task Force, according to Story County chief deputy Barry Thomas.
The three players were all charged with possession of a controlled substance and booked at the Story County Jail in Nevada, Iowa, before making their bail Tuesday morning.
Their arrests came after information was received about possible drug activity around an apartment in Ames, Iowa.
On Sept. 11, a search warrant was executed and a small amount of marijuana, Thomas said. The specific apartment was not listed, but an official confirmed to the Des Moines Register that the three players shared the same residence.
District court records said officers found a jar containing marijuana residue in the bedroom of Banks, who admitted to owning the jar. Marijuana residue also was found in Laing's bedroom and marijuana seeds were found in Hamlin's bedroom, according to the records.
Banks was listed as Iowa State's starting left cornerback on the 2-1 Cyclones' most recent depth-chart roster heading into Saturday's game against Army. The senior from Boynton Beach, Fla., is tied for fourth on the team in tackles with 17, including one stop for a loss.
Laing, a redshirt freshman from Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, was listed as third-string at left end. Hamlin, a redshirt freshman from Jupiter, Fla., was not listed on the Cyclones' depth chart.
Stanford (-7.5) over Washington ***
I wish I could have gotten this one a little cheaper. But something tells me it won't matter. Washington leaves their comfort zone of Seattle where they've been for the last 3 weeks and travel to Stanford with a shaky defense despite what they showed against USC. Washington is rushing for just 3.2 ypc and giving up a whopping 5.4 ypc while Stanford is rushing for an excellent 5.7 ypc while giving up only 3.5. So Stanford is defeinitely the running favorite in this spot. And they have an improving QB in Andrew Luck, who has already been road tested this season opneing up their first two games on the road. And will also test the Huskies through the air. Stanford is a nicely balanced team who is averaging over 200 yards both on the ground and through the air. Even though Washington has played two of the top teams in the country, Stanford has also had just as many trials and tribulations this season. Now they are on their second straight home game. And Stanford is the team with the realistic bowl aspirations this season, not Washington. And they know they need to defend their homefield this season to get to a bowl. Something else going against Washington this week is they are ranked #24 in the country. And non ranked teams playing at home favored over ranked teams have a pretty damn good win/loss record against these teams. Washington's ranking and celebration from last week's big upset will be short lived in this letdown spot and Stanford gets the win..
I wish I could have gotten this one a little cheaper. But something tells me it won't matter. Washington leaves their comfort zone of Seattle where they've been for the last 3 weeks and travel to Stanford with a shaky defense despite what they showed against USC. Washington is rushing for just 3.2 ypc and giving up a whopping 5.4 ypc while Stanford is rushing for an excellent 5.7 ypc while giving up only 3.5. So Stanford is defeinitely the running favorite in this spot. And they have an improving QB in Andrew Luck, who has already been road tested this season opneing up their first two games on the road. And will also test the Huskies through the air. Stanford is a nicely balanced team who is averaging over 200 yards both on the ground and through the air. Even though Washington has played two of the top teams in the country, Stanford has also had just as many trials and tribulations this season. Now they are on their second straight home game. And Stanford is the team with the realistic bowl aspirations this season, not Washington. And they know they need to defend their homefield this season to get to a bowl. Something else going against Washington this week is they are ranked #24 in the country. And non ranked teams playing at home favored over ranked teams have a pretty damn good win/loss record against these teams. Washington's ranking and celebration from last week's big upset will be short lived in this letdown spot and Stanford gets the win..
Agreed, Iowa is not a live dog this year. They were pretty big home dogs last year to Penn State (i think it was +8), and this year they are only getting 10 points on the road in a night game (usually favors home team even more). I just don't see much value on Iowa. Iowa ruined Penn State's season last year, and the Lions have to remember that. Also, for all those down on Penn State, they have outscored their opponents 66-3 in the first halves of games this year, which is all that really matters to me. The offense is weaker, but the defense is as good as ever.
Southern Miss (+14) over Kansas **
I watched all of the Kansas/Duke game last week and Kansas didn't impress me on defense. They gave up 300 passing yards to a Duke team who managed only 166 yards passing against Army the week before. Now they have a very balanced Southern Miss team coming in who averages 461 yards of offense per game and getting a full 2 TD's. I'm not seeing it. Plus I think SM is a little better on defense than people think They are giving up only 1.6 yards rushing per carry while averaging 5.4. And QB Davis is averaging over 200 yards passing per game with a 5-0 ratio. This is a team that probably isn't going to beat themselves against this soft Hawks defense. Plus after their pass defnese performance last week I want to see how these Jayhawks CB's can cover SM 6-6 WR DeAndre Brown. I think they're going to have problems. SM going from giving 2 TD's in their last game against a BCS team to getting 14 points. Big line difference for a pretty darned good CUSA team.. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Southern Miss goes into Lawrence and gets the upset.
I watched all of the Kansas/Duke game last week and Kansas didn't impress me on defense. They gave up 300 passing yards to a Duke team who managed only 166 yards passing against Army the week before. Now they have a very balanced Southern Miss team coming in who averages 461 yards of offense per game and getting a full 2 TD's. I'm not seeing it. Plus I think SM is a little better on defense than people think They are giving up only 1.6 yards rushing per carry while averaging 5.4. And QB Davis is averaging over 200 yards passing per game with a 5-0 ratio. This is a team that probably isn't going to beat themselves against this soft Hawks defense. Plus after their pass defnese performance last week I want to see how these Jayhawks CB's can cover SM 6-6 WR DeAndre Brown. I think they're going to have problems. SM going from giving 2 TD's in their last game against a BCS team to getting 14 points. Big line difference for a pretty darned good CUSA team.. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Southern Miss goes into Lawrence and gets the upset.
Yeah, this is a pretty strong play for me. I had Stanford as one of my running favorites on the first page, but I haven't got around to looking in depth at these west coast games until today. And as far as the numbers and situational goes this one looked to be one of the most lopsided games this week. I just wished I had got around to it earlier when it was at 7. Somebody hit it pretty hard this morning.
