These teams are all due for an ATS loss. But I wouldn't necessarily bet against a team because you THINK this is where their streak ends. That can cost you a lot of money. My recomendation is to take the season as a whole. With a team like Cal, yes they are 3-0 ATS. But have the linesmakers caught up with them? Maybe not. If they should beat Oregon then they probably lose all of their value and then that would be the time to maybe bet against them. As for Ole Miss, I don't think any of us know for sure how good this team is just based on one game against Memphis. They could be the real deal and the Rebs could be getting some real value with this game. But if they beat SC on the road, that's when they could lose a lot of their value. Ole Miss won 8 games ATS last year because they got better and caught fire in the middle of the season and snuck up on people. They might be in that same position here. People may be taking them too lightly and giving SC maybe a little too much credit for playing Georgia close. But keep in mind the many times when a public team with high expectations like Georgia loses a big game like they did at OSU, the hangover can carry over to the next week. But after that hangover game they start playing better. Like they did at Arkansas last week. So is SC the team who barely beat NCST or the team who nearly beat Georgia? My answer right now is I don't know. As for Utah State, it just depends who they play this weekend. But this team has been a losing program for so long that the public just can't bring themselves to bet on them. So they could possibly repeat what they did last year unless they do something spectacular and upset somebody. That's when they'll lose their line value.
GoSooners,
I think the Joe Public loves Ole Miss laying only 3 points against an inferior So Carolina. This brings me back to the UK @ So Carolina game 2 years ago when Mr. Public backed UK to the tune of about 65%. So Carolina won SU & I think this is another week where home dogs come out to play. If by any means Ole Miss covers, I highly doubt the favorite will cover on Friday's game. Law of physics... what goes up, must come down. The world always finds a way to balance itself out.
I think the Joe Public loves Ole Miss laying only 3 points against an inferior So Carolina. This brings me back to the UK @ So Carolina game 2 years ago when Mr. Public backed UK to the tune of about 65%. So Carolina won SU & I think this is another week where home dogs come out to play. If by any means Ole Miss covers, I highly doubt the favorite will cover on Friday's game. Law of physics... what goes up, must come down. The world always finds a way to balance itself out.
Cal is 2-1 ATS in my book since I had Minnesota +14.5 (-120) posted here. Obviously, I bought a half point, but at best they are 2-0 ATS. The funny thing is I don't like to buy points unless absolutely neccessary. Cal backers thought they were just gonna up big and the Gophers would roll over despite the fact the Gophers were battle-tested in their first two games.
The general perception of Cal (whether fair or not) is that they are a frontrunning bully who panics when someone hits them in the mouth. The Gophers were playing at home and are not Maryland and they are definitely not Eastern Washington. I'll give Cal credit for answering the run. Right now, Best is #1 for the Heisman IMO based off the first three weeks.
I did play it earlier in the week and post it here earlier in the week so it may have gone down. I thought it went from 13.5 to 14 then back to 13.5 later on depending on where you got it. I guess the lesson is to shop for lines. I know BigWil had Cal -13.5 and I told him a day before the game that if Cal wins by 14 then we both win. I was kind of joking not really thinking it would be exactly 14.
I agree. I didn't see anything wrong with Cal's play against Minny. And from everybody I've seen this season Best would have to be right up there towards the top. Jacory Harris is also having a Heisman type of year. But there is a lot of football to be played. And if I had to choose which player would hold up for the full season it would easily be Best over Harris. Neither Tebow or McCoy have showed me much yet. But it's early. And we really haven't seen Snead from Ole Miss play much either. Personally, I think the most overlooked player in the country is Dez Bryant of Okie State. He is the real deal.
I think the public always likes to bet these types of teams...
1. High scoring - Another reason why public likes to bet OVERS.
2. Favorites - Public loves them favs.
3. Top 25 teams - average Joe likes to bet on ranked teams.
4. Media friendly teams - ESPN, FoxSports, CBS all promote these teams.
Ole Miss fits 3 of these categories nicely. So Carolina always and I mean always puts a sour taste in peoples' mouths for some reason. I like to bet these types of teams because the public is the one who ideally sets the lines (not LVSC). And Joe Public loves to give value to those teams that are... low scoring, boring, good defense, unranked, etc.
Again, public perception has Ole Miss as the Cinderella team that beat Texas Tech last year and has everybody goo goo gah gah over.
Aloha from Hawaii.
Just wanted to say hang in there Sooners. I have lost 70% of my bankroll due to poor bets, poor breaks and poor money management.
I may have to shut it down except for small wagers unfortunately. Better that than chase I guess. I look forward to your running dog plays. I'm sure you will rebound.
I may have to shut it down except for small wagers unfortunately. Better that than chase I guess. I look forward to your running dog plays. I'm sure you will rebound.
Go Sooners, what do you think about Iowa vs Penn St? I believe the Hawks are getting no love and think everyone is relying on when they beat a very good UNI team in week 1 with two blocked field goals. Iowa has been on fire for the last half the year last year and have dominated Iowa St and Arizona in their last two games. Iowa's off. and def. lines are better than Penn State's and I just think 10 points is a gift in Happy Valley. I truly believe Penn State is going to lose 3 games this year in the Big Ten. They have beaten three really bad teams all at home with no real beat downs like they should. Plus Penn St. plays right into Iowa's strength. That is why Iowa has won 6 of the past 7. I think Iowa goes into Happy Valley and stuns the college world and beats PSU 17-14.
NUTS
NUTS
Well call me a fool but I think that "Vegas" creates their lines accordingly primarily because of the PUBLIC. Public views/perceptions is what drives me in the right direction on which team to bet w/or against. Public betting is right 50% of the time, but when perception, along w/situational spots coincide w/these public plays... wahlaaaaa! money shot! I don't bet against a team just because majority of the bets are on one side. Alot of factors have to play into that as well. This is just one of the filters I use in my handicapping arsenal.
Aloha from Hawaii.
Aloha from Hawaii.
Right now I'm favoring Iowa in this spot. And I haven't found a real legit reason not to take them. What you're basically getting here is a PSU team who has beaten three cupcakes all at home vs an Iowa team who has played 2 BCS non conference teams back to back as favorites and won. And are now getting double digits. Now I've heard some arguments for PSU saying they haven't shown us everything and is saving it for Iowa. But you have to ask yourself "why haven't they done this before?" Last year and in the previous years before they weren't hesitiant to blowout their cupcake opponents. Why should this year be different than the rest? I would bet the biggest reason why PSU hasn't blown out their opponents is having only 9 starters back on this team. The one tell that kind of gives PSU away that they probably aren't the team they were last year is they are averaging rushing only 133 yards per game against weak teams vs 200 ypg last season. And it's kind of hard to hold back in the running game. What are you going to tell your rushers, "don't run the ball well because we're saving it for Iowa?" I don't think so. I think they are having problems because they don't have as good or experienced of an OL this year. And haven't gotten things going yet. So this is probably a good time for Iowa to be playing them. The only thing going against us is Iowa is giving up 4.6 ypc rushing. Which is more than I would like to see. And they are averaging only 137 yards per game rushing compared to 185 last season. So they also have plenty of room for improvement. But I should add that their last opponent Zona has a pretty darn good defense, which kind of skewers Iowa's numbers a little and makes them worse than they probably really are. This has all of the makings of a low scoring game because I'm not sure either team can take advantage of each other's weaknesses. But in a low scoring game it's better to be getting the 10 points than giving them.
