GoSooners Plays For Week 4

[MrGoodDr]

GS...Wonder if Bradford will be back for the Maimi game? They are most certainly going to need ALL hands on deck for that one....IMHO. Looking forward to the Running Dogs as that is mainly all i play in CFB. Better luck to ya this week.

 

[fonz5000]

Right now I'm favoring Iowa in this spot. And I haven't found a real legit reason not to take them. What you're basically getting here is a PSU team who has beaten three cupcakes all at home vs an Iowa team who has played 2 BCS non conference teams back to back as favorites and won. And are now getting double digits. Now I've heard some arguments for PSU saying they haven't shown us everything and is saving it for Iowa. But you have to ask yourself "why haven't they done this before?" Last year and in the previous years before they weren't hesitiant to blowout their cupcake opponents. Why should this year be different than the rest? I would bet the biggest reason why PSU hasn't blown out their opponents is having only 9 starters back on this team. The one tell that kind of gives PSU away that they probably aren't the team they were last year is they are averaging rushing only 133 yards per game against weak teams vs 200 ypg last season. And it's kind of hard to hold back in the running game. What are you going to tell your rushers, "don't run the ball well because we're saving it for Iowa?" I don't think so. I think they are having problems because they don't have as good or experienced of an OL this year. And haven't gotten things going yet. So this is probably a good time for Iowa to be playing them. The only thing going against us is Iowa is giving up 4.6 ypc rushing. Which is more than I would like to see. And they are averaging only 137 yards per game rushing compared to 185 last season. So they also have plenty of room for improvement. But I should add that their last opponent Zona has a pretty darn good defense, which kind of skewers Iowa's numbers a little and makes them worse than they probably really are. This has all of the makings of a low scoring game because I'm not sure either team can take advantage of each other's weaknesses. But in a low scoring game it's better to be getting the 10 points than giving them.

GS,

I agree with you on Iowa.. I have been at all 3 Iowa games and the only reason they are giving up that many YPC rushing is due to a couple big runs towards the end of games by really fast backs. I don't know how fast PSU's back is, but just food for thought... Last week that Arizona game was not even close. I know it was only 10 points, but it was a pick 6 that was a wrong route, and a really long run by AZ's fastest guy.

Just food for thought. I usually don't be on Iowa, but might get the 10 and the under too.

Love your write ups.

 

[Boxslayer]

Well Said. Line Value is the best strategy hands down.

The two go hand in hand.

 

[Boxslayer]

.

I agree. I have had many "public" plays over the years that have worked out great. Texas Tech blasting Oklahoma State last year was probably the best. Again, line value is the thing to focus on, not what the public is or isn't doing.

The two go hand in hand. Point spreads are inflated bc of public perception.

 

[theycallmedug]

Cal is 2-1 ATS in my book since I had Minnesota +14.5 (-120) posted here. Obviously, I bought a half point, but at best they are 2-0 ATS. The funny thing is I don't like to buy points unless absolutely neccessary. Cal backers thought they were just gonna up big and the Gophers would roll over despite the fact the Gophers were battle-tested in their first two games.

yea but the line was 13.4/14...notice u had 14.5 -120...when u buy a hook it costs u the -120 instead of the normal -110

 

[TOOTIGHT]

I see the Iowa game coming down to the wire and being a low scoring contest so at first glance I have no idea why Iowa is getting so many points. PSU wants to blow them out because of last year but wanting and doing are 2 very different things.

Also, see some reverse line movement on the Illinois vs. Ohio St game. Public is on OSU from what I can tell and the line went from 14.5 to 14.

 

[GoSooners]

GS: you can go to goldsheet.com and click on TGS Pointspread Logs and they maintain the scores and the ATS records for all 120 teams. They update every week.

I've gone by Northcoast's final lines the last 3 years to keep my records straight from the same source on these teams. Their final line was Cal -13. Which means they covered the spread against Minny and are now 3-0 ATS. I'm sure that Marc Lawrence and a few of these other sources aren't going to be off by more than a half a point from Northcoast's. So Cal covered the game. I thought I saw the line going down with it on Saturday, but I just wasn't sure of the final number.

 

[GoForIt]

Vegas Odds
Las Vegas Hilton Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/14/09 1:24:34 PM 13.5/-110 (Open) OFF
09/16/09 2:24:36 PM 13.5/-110 53 -110 (Open)
09/17/09 8:54:34 AM 14/-110 53 -110
09/19/09 10:24:35 AM 13.5/-110 53.5 -110
Mirage Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/14/09 2:15:06 PM 14/-110 (Open) OFF
09/17/09 1:15:16 PM 14/-110 53 -110 (Open)
09/19/09 10:35:17 AM 13.5/-110 53 -110
Hard Rock Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/14/09 12:04:09 PM 14/-110 (Open) OFF
09/17/09 11:44:08 AM 14/-110 53 -110 (Open)
Planet Hollywood Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/14/09 1:53:47 PM 14/-110 (Open) OFF
09/17/09 10:03:49 AM 14/-110 53 -110 (Open)
09/17/09 4:43:44 PM 14/-110 52.5 -110
Offshore Odds
betED Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/14/09 12:04:07 PM 14/-110 (Open) OFF
09/14/09 6:44:08 PM 14/-105 OFF
Pinnacle Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/13/09 7:56:37 PM 13.5/-105 (Open) OFF
09/13/09 8:16:31 PM 13.5/110 OFF
09/14/09 5:46:31 AM 13.5/106 OFF
09/14/09 6:16:33 AM 14/-104 OFF
09/15/09 8:26:34 AM 14/-111 OFF
09/15/09 8:46:31 AM 14/-108 OFF
09/15/09 11:06:34 AM 14/-105 OFF
09/15/09 6:46:32 PM 14/-105 53 -105 (Open)
09/16/09 6:36:37 AM 14/-103 53 -105
09/17/09 9:46:30 AM 14/-103 53u -111
09/17/09 9:56:31 AM 14/-107 53u -111
09/17/09 12:06:30 PM 14/-107 52.5u -107
09/17/09 7:36:30 PM 14/-110 52.5u -107
09/18/09 10:06:31 AM 13.5/-107 52.5u -107
09/18/09 10:16:31 AM 13.5/-105 52.5u -107
09/18/09 1:46:32 PM 13.5/-109 52.5u -107
09/18/09 7:36:31 PM 13.5/-109 52 -105
09/19/09 12:26:30 AM 13.5/-109 52o -108
09/19/09 9:16:33 AM 13.5/-109 52.5o -108
09/19/09 10:06:31 AM 13.5/-109 52.5u -106
09/19/09 10:16:34 AM 13.5/-102 52.5u -106
09/19/09 10:56:31 AM 13.5/-102 52.5o -109
Logans Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/14/09 10:35:23 AM 14/-110 (Open) OFF
09/14/09 7:25:44 PM 13.5/-110 OFF
09/14/09 11:15:16 PM 14/-110 OFF
09/16/09 10:35:22 AM 14/-110 53.5 -110 (Open)
09/16/09 7:05:18 PM 14/-110 54 -110
09/17/09 2:45:29 PM 14/-110 53.5 -110
09/17/09 4:55:46 PM 14/-110 53 -110
09/17/09 11:45:41 PM 13.5/-105 53 -110
09/19/09 9:05:29 AM 13.5/-105 52.5 -110
5Dimes Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/13/09 5:54:25 PM 14/-110 (Open) OFF
09/13/09 6:54:24 PM 13.5/-110 OFF
09/13/09 8:14:25 PM 14/-110 OFF
09/16/09 8:15:54 AM 14/-110 53 -110 (Open)
09/16/09 9:14:24 AM 14/-110 53.5 -110
09/16/09 5:24:24 PM 14/-110 53 -110
09/17/09 1:24:24 PM 14/-110 52.5 -110
09/18/09 7:34:24 PM 14/-110 52 -110
Legends Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/14/09 7:43:21 AM 14/-110 (Open) OFF
09/17/09 7:53:22 PM 13.5/-110 OFF
09/18/09 7:53:25 AM 13.5/-110 52.5 -110 (Open)
SPORTSBETTING Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/14/09 12:55:07 AM 14/-110 (Open) OFF
09/14/09 4:15:02 PM 14.5/-110 OFF
09/15/09 4:05:03 PM 14/-110 OFF
09/16/09 11:35:05 AM 14/-105 OFF
09/17/09 3:35:05 PM 14/-105 53 -110 (Open)
09/17/09 10:55:10 PM 14/100 53 -110
BetJamaica Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/13/09 5:53:20 PM 14/-110 (Open) OFF
09/13/09 6:53:19 PM 13.5/-110 OFF
09/13/09 8:23:21 PM 14/-110 OFF
09/17/09 8:03:19 AM 14/-110 53 -110 (Open)
09/17/09 2:43:25 PM 14/-110 52.5 -110
09/18/09 4:53:21 PM 13/-110 52.5 -110
09/18/09 5:13:23 PM 13/-105 52.5 -105
09/19/09 10:33:24 AM 13/-105 53 -110
BetUS Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/14/09 8:33:14 AM 14/-110 (Open) OFF
09/15/09 8:03:16 PM 14/-110 53.5 -110 (Open)
09/16/09 8:23:17 PM 14/-110 53 -110
09/17/09 2:43:24 PM 14/-110 52.5 -110
09/18/09 2:23:24 PM 13.5/-110 52.5 -110
09/18/09 7:43:16 PM 13.5/-110 52 -110
SportsInteraction Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/15/09 7:44:17 AM 14/-110 (Open) OFF
09/16/09 1:04:11 PM 14/-110 53.5 -110 (Open)
09/18/09 7:44:12 AM 14/-110 53 -110
09/18/09 1:54:13 PM 14/-110 53u -115
09/19/09 1:54:11 AM 14.5/-110 53u -115
WSEX Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/14/09 12:11:32 AM 14/-110 (Open) OFF
09/17/09 3:51:32 PM 13.5/-110 52 -110 (Open)
09/17/09 11:51:32 PM 13.5/-110 52.5 -110
09/19/09 10:26:32 AM 13.5/-105 52.5 -110
Belmont Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/14/09 10:35:23 AM 14/-110 (Open) OFF
09/14/09 7:25:44 PM 13.5/-110 OFF
09/14/09 11:15:16 PM 14/-110 OFF
09/16/09 10:35:22 AM 14/-110 53.5 -110 (Open)
09/16/09 7:05:18 PM 14/-110 54 -110
09/17/09 2:45:29 PM 14/-110 53.5 -110
09/17/09 4:55:46 PM 14/-110 53 -110
09/17/09 11:45:41 PM 13.5/-105 53 -110
09/19/09 9:05:29 AM 13.5/-105 52.5 -110
BookMaker Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/13/09 5:55:10 PM 14/-110 (Open) OFF
09/13/09 7:05:10 PM 13.5/-110 OFF
09/13/09 8:15:10 PM 14/-110 OFF
09/15/09 4:05:32 PM 14/-110 53.5 -110 (Open)
09/16/09 9:15:11 AM 14/-110 54 -110
09/16/09 10:15:11 AM 14/-110 53.5 -110
09/16/09 8:35:19 PM 14/-110 53 -110
09/17/09 2:55:19 PM 14/-110 52.5 -110
09/18/09 5:05:19 PM 13/-110 52.5 -110
Brobury Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/14/09 10:35:23 AM 14/-110 (Open) OFF
09/14/09 7:25:44 PM 13.5/-110 OFF
09/14/09 11:15:16 PM 14/-110 OFF
09/16/09 10:35:22 AM 14/-110 53.5 -110 (Open)
09/16/09 7:05:18 PM 14/-110 54 -110
09/17/09 2:45:29 PM 14/-110 53.5 -110
09/17/09 4:55:46 PM 14/-110 53 -110
09/17/09 11:45:41 PM 13.5/-105 53 -110
09/19/09 9:05:29 AM 13.5/-105 52.5 -110
SBGGLOBAL.com Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/14/09 9:25:01 AM 14/-110 (Open) OFF
09/15/09 12:35:07 PM 13.5/-110 OFF
09/15/09 2:25:02 PM 14/-110 OFF
09/16/09 9:35:02 AM 14/-110 53.5 -110 (Open)
09/16/09 10:35:01 PM 14/-110 53 -110
09/17/09 3:05:02 PM 14/-110 52.5 -110
Covers Contest Odds
NCF League Champions Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/13/09 7:56:37 PM 13.5/-105 (Open) OFF
09/13/09 8:16:31 PM 13.5/110 OFF
09/14/09 5:46:31 AM 13.5/106 OFF
09/14/09 6:16:33 AM 14/-104 OFF
09/15/09 8:26:34 AM 14/-111 OFF
09/15/09 8:46:31 AM 14/-108 OFF
09/15/09 11:06:34 AM 14/-105 OFF
09/15/09 6:46:32 PM 14/-105 53 -105 (Open)
09/16/09 6:36:37 AM 14/-103 53 -105
09/17/09 9:46:30 AM 14/-103 53u -111
09/17/09 9:56:31 AM 14/-107 53u -111
09/17/09 12:06:30 PM 14/-107 52.5u -107
09/17/09 7:36:30 PM 14/-110 52.5u -107
09/18/09 10:06:31 AM 13.5/-107 52.5u -107
09/18/09 10:16:31 AM 13.5/-105 52.5u -107
09/18/09 1:46:32 PM 13.5/-109 52.5u -107
09/18/09 7:36:31 PM 13.5/-109 52 -105
09/19/09 12:26:30 AM 13.5/-109 52o -108
09/19/09 9:16:33 AM 13.5/-109 52.5o -108
09/19/09 10:06:31 AM 13.5/-109 52.5u -106
09/19/09 10:16:34 AM 13.5/-102 52.5u -106
09/19/09 10:56:31 AM 13.5/-102 52.5o -109

 

[GoSooners]

I see the Iowa game coming down to the wire and being a low scoring contest so at first glance I have no idea why Iowa is getting so many points. PSU wants to blow them out because of last year but wanting and doing are 2 very different things.

Also, see some reverse line movement on the Illinois vs. Ohio St game. Public is on OSU from what I can tell and the line went from 14.5 to 14.

Guys...I looked at the Iowa/Penn State game for a long time last night. And I'm not sure if I want to play it. Iowa allows 4.6 yards rushing per carry. And my cutoff number has always been 4.0 ypc when it comes to capping good defensive play against the run. What it comes down to is Iowa is rushing for 3.8 ypc while their opposition is rushing for 4.6. So they are getting outrushed in their games. Granted Penn State is averaging only 4 yards per carry against weak competetion. Down significantly from their numbers last season. But they are also giving up only 1.6 ypc. And that's pretty stout when you compare it to the Iowa defense. So even though Iowa is the Potential Running Dog in this spot because of the level of competetion that they've faced, the number comparison is still far enough off to where PSU can possibly get a cover here. I know there will be some that disagree with me on this. But I'm simply going by the numbers with these two teams.

 

[GoSooners]

Go For It...Those are the opening lines. I'm talking about the closing lines.

 

[GoForIt]

I thought it was both, oh well, I played it and posted it here late Monday night, Tuesday morning and buying the 1/2 point looks really smart (or really lucky LOL), That makes up for the Penn State hosing in week 1 when JoePa scored 0 points in the 2nd half, time for luck to even out for me----------
BOL GOSOONERS, its only Week 4, keep your head up!!!!!!!!!, I went from 0-2 to 3-2 in one week so it is possible to turn it around

 

[TOOTIGHT]

Iowa did loose their two beast run stoppers on the DL from last year and they were the key for Iowa stopping the run. No doubt the biggest question mark for them heading into this season. Most were concerned about the loss of Shonn Green but good RB's are easier to replace than good DT's IMO...

 

[GoSooners]

Iowa did loose their two beast run stoppers on the DL from last year and they were the key for Iowa stopping the run. No doubt the biggest question mark for them heading into this season. Most were concerned about the loss of Shonn Green but good RB's are easier to replace than good DT's IMO...

Exactly...Everybody talks about losing the famous player from the offense. But it's really the big uglies that stuff the middle of the defnesive and play on the offensive lines that make the plays happen or stop the plays. I don't care what kind of offenses are run, you've GOT to have good line play on both sides of the ball. The things with Iowa that i noticed last night in capping this game was they really haven't played a good QB yet. In their game with ISU they were playing against a fairly young QB trying to adjust to another offensive system from a new coach. And so many mistakes were made by ISU in that game that allowed Iowa a lot of gifts with turnovers and short fields. And then in Iowa's next game Zona had to break in a new QB making his first road trip across the country. And I monitored Zone here all summer. And they really struggled on offense in their practices. The bottom line for that game is Iowa was able to run about 20 more plays than Zona and so control the tempo of the game. Zona actually outrushed Iowa 148-133. But they couldn't get anything else going offensively because of having a rookie QB. Zona also isn't that great of a rush defense allowing 3.4 ypc compared to PSU's 1.6. Pretty big difference. It tells me that Iowa probably won't be able to control the tempo of the game and they'll have to rely more on Stanzi. I don't think he's a good enough QB to make the plays on his own and win the game for them. Not without a running game to keep the defense honest. Plus Iowa faces a pretty salty QB this week who CAN win a game when it's put on his shoulders. I'm not saying Iowa can't cover here. But i don't think they are worth taking a chance on in a big game like this which is the first conference game for both teams. It's possible that PSU hasn't showed us their best stuff.

 

[GoSooners]

Guys...I'm going to start putting in some plays later on tonight and tomorrow. Right now I'm looking at a few possible running favorites this week. And there are a few of these probable running dogs that I'm taking off the board. I'll narrow down my list tonight..

 

[TOOTIGHT]

I hear ya GS, I think there are a lot of trap games this week and this could be one of them. At first glance it looks real good but there are plenty of underlying factors not to mention the fact that it's a night game in what will probably be the loudest stadium in the country this week.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

if you build it, gosooners will come...@)

 

[VoiceofReason101]

GS i know and most importantly you know what your doing, bring it.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

if you build it, gosooners will come...@)

true story, my great great grandpa once told me dad shoeless joe was the 2nd best player he saw, behind the babe, you the man GS. :drink:

 

[GoSooners]

UCF (+10.5) over East Carolina **

UCF doesn't exactly qualify as a running dog. But the numbers from both teams are very even with ECU averaging 2.8 ypc and giving up 3.1 ypc to ECU who is averaging 3.3 ypc and giving up 3.5. The main problem I have with ECU is they are a team who is averaging only 268 yards per game and giving up nearly 400 and are now giving DD's to a conference opponent.. Granted they have played a couple BCS teams on the road, which skewers their numbers a little.. But it still doesn't excuse the fact that ECU QB Pinkney is only completing 49% of his passes with a 3-3 ratio, while UCF QB Hodges is completing 63% of his passes with a 3-1 ratio for a 6.4 ypp to Pinkney's 5.1 ypp. This will be the difference in a game where the rushing should be fairly even. Also UCF will be coming in and playing in a must-win mode for this game after dropping their first conference game to Southern Miss. This is ECU's first conference tilt. I think it's interesting that UCF HC Leary manages to coach his team to a winning record every other year. And since they had a losing record last season they very well could do the same thing this year. Especially with a good QB and 15 returning starters. They are coming off a nice win over a dangerous Buffalo team, which should give them some confidence coming into this game. They are on a 2 game ATS win streak while ECU is on a 3 game ATS losing streak, and have been a money burning team since last year where they only went 4-8 ATS. I'm liking UCF here.

 

[gijoe]

Papa Joe said in his press conference that he has held back his offense.he has used 7 and 8 running backs and 9 to 12 receivers a game. 15 players had the flu last week. Clark will not forget that he blew the game last year. He is one hell of a quarterback and Royster is a great runnr. Watch yourself here. i see a Penn State blowout.