Under normal circumstances Stanford would have been the Best Bet for me because the Stanford/UW game had the most lopsided rushing statistics of the week combined with the best possible situational angle we could have asked for with UW coming off their biggest win in years over USC. It's always naturally assumed that a win like they had over USC would carry the momentum over to the next week. But the majority of the time it doesn't happen. Or that team doesn't play with the same emotional spark they did the week before.. As for my plays, I'm keeping all of my bets small or medium until I get some of these losses back. So if I put in a medium three star play you'll know I feel pretty strongly about it. BOL
GS keep an eye on the Illini, a team that has the makings of going 1-10 against the spread this year. Ohio St. would have beaten them by 45-50 points if it wasn't raining the whole game. Pryor threw like 8 passes because Illinois couldn't stop the run and they are much better against the run than the pass believe it or not. With this team you have bad QB play, horrible coaching, stupid penalties, TO's galor and the defense can't force any on the other side, and they may be packing it in soon after PSU comes to town.
With PSU going down last night we still may get a decent number vs. Illinois this week. Another reason I'm glad they didn't loose by more against OSU. They will not stay within 3 TD's of PSU because they will not be able to score.
This team made me a lot of money when they had a defense like this back in 2001-2005 and they should be the hott fade once again.
With PSU going down last night we still may get a decent number vs. Illinois this week. Another reason I'm glad they didn't loose by more against OSU. They will not stay within 3 TD's of PSU because they will not be able to score.
This team made me a lot of money when they had a defense like this back in 2001-2005 and they should be the hott fade once again.
Tootight...Illinois has been kind of a wait and see team with me anyway this year. With only one VHT player on their OL plus a couple sophomores and a redshirt freshman as part of their lineup, I knew it would probably take awhile for them to develop. And they managed only 2.4 ypc against Ohio State. They are having the same problems as Penn State is having with their OL. Very young players missing assingments and the general chemistry of either of these teams lines haven't come together and aren't very good right now. I was watching on ESPN some of the breakdowns they illustrated with PSU's line, and I immediately got off of them and started siding with Iowa when I knew what a big mismatch that was probably going to be. And it turned out to be an even bigger mismatch than I anticipated between Iowa's DL and PSU's OL.
Your "Due for a ATS spread" theory was spot on, GS.
I'm going to go some searching but we need to be aware of that and I think the team can fit into a decent fade system.
Hate going really system-heavy but I think it's another thing to take into account.
I know Boise State and Nebraska are undefeated ATS right now.
I know we can check each team individually but I'll have to look for a site that shows which teams are 100% against the spread.
I'm going to go some searching but we need to be aware of that and I think the team can fit into a decent fade system.
Hate going really system-heavy but I think it's another thing to take into account.
I know Boise State and Nebraska are undefeated ATS right now.
I know we can check each team individually but I'll have to look for a site that shows which teams are 100% against the spread.
The two undefeated ATS teams Cal and Ole Miss went down this week. I bet against Ole Miss when they played SC. But as much as I liked Cal this week against Oregon, the ATS system is a big reason why I didn't touch the game. The loss was so devastating for Cal that it makes me wonder if it won't carry over this week against USC and they lose ATS again. I think USC had a Washington hangover this week and should be back on track next week. So this USC/Cal game I'll be looking at closely. As for Boise and Nebraska, they are undefeated ATS. But they weren't ATS beaters last year so I would hate to predict when their streaks come to an end this year. Nebraska was on my top ten list of ATS beaters this season. And Boise was in my top 20. Boise is almost always around that 7 or 8 wins ATS mark almost every year. A very steady program. So I'm going to pick my spots carefully when betting against these teams.
Yeah. The ATS system is interesting and it is something i watch for too. Goes along with my buy low/sell high strategies in general.
And there is a big difference between teams that are simply underrated by Vegas, and teams that are getting a ton of breaks and backing into a bunch of covers like Vanderbilt last year.
And there is a big difference between teams that are simply underrated by Vegas, and teams that are getting a ton of breaks and backing into a bunch of covers like Vanderbilt last year.
I started a thread about this. Feel free to correct me or chime in.
Oregon State keeps jumping out at me early. This team was pounded by the public/touts for two weeks and people are sick and tired of them.
Arizona State, meanwhile, gave Georgia a much closer than expected ballgame and now are laying points at home.
Arizona State is 2-0 ATS and Oregon State is 0-3.
From a talent perspective I think these teams are not that far apart.
More in depth analysis to follow, obviously, after I look into it further.
Oregon State keeps jumping out at me early. This team was pounded by the public/touts for two weeks and people are sick and tired of them.
Arizona State, meanwhile, gave Georgia a much closer than expected ballgame and now are laying points at home.
Arizona State is 2-0 ATS and Oregon State is 0-3.
From a talent perspective I think these teams are not that far apart.
More in depth analysis to follow, obviously, after I look into it further.
