South Carolina (+4.5) over Ole Miss *
I'm just making this one a one star play tonight. This is mainly a system play for me with the home team running dog and the Thursday night ESPN home team angle. I like that SC gets DT Ajiboye back from suspension since their other starting DT Pepper is out with an injury. And it also looks like SC's 1st team SEC LB Norwood will also be playing. So SC should just about be at full strength tonight. And we could see a mismatch at a couple positions on the line since Ole Miss is starting a couple very inexperienced offensive lineman. So I'm curious to see if Ole Miss can get their running game going and if the SC defense can put some pressure on Snead. It should be a good Thursday night game. I'll take the points.
I'm just making this one a one star play tonight. This is mainly a system play for me with the home team running dog and the Thursday night ESPN home team angle. I like that SC gets DT Ajiboye back from suspension since their other starting DT Pepper is out with an injury. And it also looks like SC's 1st team SEC LB Norwood will also be playing. So SC should just about be at full strength tonight. And we could see a mismatch at a couple positions on the line since Ole Miss is starting a couple very inexperienced offensive lineman. So I'm curious to see if Ole Miss can get their running game going and if the SC defense can put some pressure on Snead. It should be a good Thursday night game. I'll take the points.
ap...I try to stay away from MAC games. But my feeling is Central Michigan is probably going to cover these early games against their weaker opponents, and maybe be a play against team later on in the season when they get to the meat of the schedule. And have to go on the road. I would hate to go against a CM team who hasn't done anything wrong to this point and is 3-0 ATS. If I play anything from that game it will be the UNDER 55.5. I think this total has been bet up a little high off of it original number. Neither of these teams are as potent offensively as you might think. And they both have excellent run defenses. Which makes me think neither team will be trading scores up and down the field with each other.
As for Michigan/Indiana...Michigan is pretty much a green light play on team for me this year. I think they'll cover a lot of spreads this season. I have a lean to Michigan. I would rather play Michigan off of some shorter lines and dog plays. But I think you might be able to get away with this one. My number has Michigan winning by 25. So this is a game that I'm at least considering playing. BOL
GS, have you looked at the total in the S. Miss KU game? I have been looking at the over, I think KU airs it out and they are finally working Briscoe back into the offense and he may be the best WR in the Big 12. I think both of these teams will hang some points in this game. GL, I do like USM getting 2 tds though, they are the kind of team that even if they are getting blown out they have the offense (QB/RB) to get a backdoor cover here.
Texas A&M (-14) over UAB **
I had UAB listed as a possible running dogs. But the problem I have with them is they are pretty much a one dimensional team going up for the first time this season against a two dimensional BCS team who is an even better running team. The Aggies defense didn't look good last week against Utah State. But USU had a good QB/RB combination that can hurt you both ways. I don't think UAB is as big of a threat on offense. They are also worse on defense. They gave up over 500 yards on defense against Troy last week in a 2 TD loss. Texas A&M WR Fuller will be out for this game. But freshman WR Nwachukwu should be an adequate repacement. He caught 3 TD passes and had a 39 yard run in place of Fuller last week. And this UAB defense shouldn't offer much resistance in the passing game. Because of last weeks closer than expected game vs Utah State I believe we are getting a little more line value this week. The Aggies are going from being 19 point favorites against a better team last week to -14 vs UAB. I also think the worse thing you can do to a college team is to give them a bye week in the second week of the season after they get rolling with a big first game win. And I believe that the 2 weeks off hurt the Aggies last week. I look for Texas A&M to look much sharper this week, and to get their offense rolling before they go into Big 12 play. Since their opening win against a bad Rice team, UAB has now reverted back to their old ways with losses against SMU and Troy. It won't get any better this week.
I had UAB listed as a possible running dogs. But the problem I have with them is they are pretty much a one dimensional team going up for the first time this season against a two dimensional BCS team who is an even better running team. The Aggies defense didn't look good last week against Utah State. But USU had a good QB/RB combination that can hurt you both ways. I don't think UAB is as big of a threat on offense. They are also worse on defense. They gave up over 500 yards on defense against Troy last week in a 2 TD loss. Texas A&M WR Fuller will be out for this game. But freshman WR Nwachukwu should be an adequate repacement. He caught 3 TD passes and had a 39 yard run in place of Fuller last week. And this UAB defense shouldn't offer much resistance in the passing game. Because of last weeks closer than expected game vs Utah State I believe we are getting a little more line value this week. The Aggies are going from being 19 point favorites against a better team last week to -14 vs UAB. I also think the worse thing you can do to a college team is to give them a bye week in the second week of the season after they get rolling with a big first game win. And I believe that the 2 weeks off hurt the Aggies last week. I look for Texas A&M to look much sharper this week, and to get their offense rolling before they go into Big 12 play. Since their opening win against a bad Rice team, UAB has now reverted back to their old ways with losses against SMU and Troy. It won't get any better this week.
Nevada (+7.5) over Missouri **
Guys, this is strictly a home running dogs system play for me like last night with South Carolina. I can't give you too many great reasons to take Nevada other than they are the home running dogs. But so far in the last two weeks these are how the home running dogs have done:
Fresno St. L
Syracuse W
Washington W
Idaho W
Marshall W
Minnesota W, T or L depending on which line you got
Oregon State L
South Carolina W
I can say this about Nevada. I think they have a good enough defensive line to put some pressure on Mizzou rookie QB Gabbert. Although they didn't get the sacks, they flushed ND QB Claussen out of the pocket a few times in their first game. And they do like to get after the QB and had a good sack record last season. What has killed this Nevada team is mistakes. They are a nation leading -8 in turnover margin. And they've comminted an uncharacteristic 15 penalties this year in their first 2 games. With 14 starters returning from a bowl team I know they are better team than this. They outgained CSU 420-369 last week. But 5 TO's and 11 penalties killed them. And also killed my bet on Nevada. I think coming back home for the first time will help this team a lot. Especially in the penalty department, which can kill your drives and momentum. Ault has also had working very hard this week in cutting down on mistakes. And I look for Nevada to run the ball a bit more tonight to help avoid those mistakes and test that Mizzou defense playing in their first true road game outside of the state of Missouri.
Guys, this is strictly a home running dogs system play for me like last night with South Carolina. I can't give you too many great reasons to take Nevada other than they are the home running dogs. But so far in the last two weeks these are how the home running dogs have done:
Fresno St. L
Syracuse W
Washington W
Idaho W
Marshall W
Minnesota W, T or L depending on which line you got
Oregon State L
South Carolina W
I can say this about Nevada. I think they have a good enough defensive line to put some pressure on Mizzou rookie QB Gabbert. Although they didn't get the sacks, they flushed ND QB Claussen out of the pocket a few times in their first game. And they do like to get after the QB and had a good sack record last season. What has killed this Nevada team is mistakes. They are a nation leading -8 in turnover margin. And they've comminted an uncharacteristic 15 penalties this year in their first 2 games. With 14 starters returning from a bowl team I know they are better team than this. They outgained CSU 420-369 last week. But 5 TO's and 11 penalties killed them. And also killed my bet on Nevada. I think coming back home for the first time will help this team a lot. Especially in the penalty department, which can kill your drives and momentum. Ault has also had working very hard this week in cutting down on mistakes. And I look for Nevada to run the ball a bit more tonight to help avoid those mistakes and test that Mizzou defense playing in their first true road game outside of the state of Missouri.
