I'm going to try out the running dogs system today and see how they do this week.
Va Tech (+3) over Miami **
I like the level of competetion that VT has faced thus far. In my opinion their first opponent Alabama is the best or second best team in the country this year. And their opponent Nebraska last week is the class of the Big 12 North and a very balanced team on offense. And the third best defense in the Big 12 behind OU and Texas. The Huskers were also a much better rushing team than Miami in averaging over 6 ypc while Miami comes in only averaging 4.0. . And I believe this will be the difference in the game. Plus Miami is a banged up team right now with their top DL Forster injured and out for this game. In a game that I feel will be close, I think any kind of starter like this not playing is huge. Miami's first trip outside of Florida into a very hostile enviornment.
Iowa (+10) over Penn State **
I've been leaning toward Penn State all week. But last night after seeing some of the game film on this Penn State team and how their young offensive line is missing assingments and struggling to retain their blocks, I'm leaning towards Iowa being the running dogs in this spot. Plus PSU's LB corp is a little banged up. So this could also help Iowa's cause as we move farther into the game. And if there is the bad weather moving in as expected, it should be the great equalizer here. Double digits is a lot of points to seperate two Big 10 heavyweights.
Fresno State (+17) over Cincy **
This just seems like a lot of points here. And Fresno is still known as the giant killers. And something tells me that despite all of their travel back and forth across the country that they are going to give Cincy some fits with their balanced attack. Cincy basically hasn't faced a good offensive team yet. Their other two division 1 opponents OSU and Rutgers averaged scoring just 20 and 19 ppg on offense. Fresno has already hung 31 on Wisky and 34 on Boise. Think offense here. Cincy will get their points. But this could be a shootout. And Fresno is a very battle tested team having played two 60 minute games.
Michigan St (+3) over Wisky **
This is strictly a running dog play. But I do think that Dantonio is ten times the coach that Bielema is. And I think he'll have his Spartans ready today. Teams like Wisky playing their fourth home game in a row have a bad ATS record in their 4th game.
Louisville (+14) over Utah **
Louisville showed me a lot of heart last week. And I really like the way they have things going in the running game. And they are giving up only 2.9 ypc. I think this is too many points for a MWC team who lost some key players from last season to be giving a BCS conference team. Utah giving up more points this year than they did in the second part of last season. I like the 2 TD's here.
North Carolina (+3) over Ga Tech **
I never thought I would say this, but I think North Carolina could be the running dogs here against a Paul Johnson run team. Ga Tech ran into a buzz saw of a Miami defense last week. And couldn't deal with their speed. But this week it could get even worse. Miami is giving up a little over 3 yards per rush. NC is giving up only 1.8 ypc. And like Miami, they also have a ton of speed on the defensive side of the ball. GT QB Nesbitt has struggled to get into his rhythm and the offense has not been consistent in any game this year. And that's not good news in facing this NC defense. And on the other side NC QB Yates has surpassed my expectations this year completeting 67% of his passes to what is pretty much a new group of receivers. And they've already faced a better UCONN defense on the road. So I think they can get it done with the more balanced attack. NC was one of my preseason ATS beaters this season. They are 2-1 ATS on the year. And I think they make it 3-1 today.
Purdue (+7) over Notre Dame **
I'm not really comfortable with this line going down a little. But Purdue always gets up for the Irish. And I think last week's lost to Northern Illinois was a lookahead game. And they'll bring it today like they did at Oregon 2 weeks ago. Purdue don't have much of an defense, so this will probably be a shootout. But sunshine boy Classen is suffering from a turf toe, so I would be surprised if he was at anywhere near 100% for this game. I really like Purdue's young QB and offense. And would be surprised if they play two bad games in a row for this good new coaching staff. I look for ND to win a tight one.
