fonz...This week will be a little different than the previous weeks because I'm using my running dogs as my main handicapping tool in these games. Whereas I really haven't played them in the first 3 weeks because I didn't really have enough data to back me up.. So I'm going more by the numbers now. I would prefer to have a full month of games played before I play the PRB's, but I really have no choice since the other way isn't working. This has been a down year for the majority of the cappers I know. But hang in there. Maybe it will turn around. There is a lot of parity in college football this year. But in the last 4 or 5 weeks of the season the cream always rises to the top with these teams. And we'll know much more about them then. My advice to you if nothing else is working is stick with the good coaches. They are the ones that will make you the most money in the end.
nd,
Have you been looking at my "gold" sheet? hahaha. Just playing with ya my man. When I read your post, I was like, "damn, this guy stole my play." I love love love Purdue in this spot. It has all the makings of a so-called "PLAY OF THE YEAR". Public perception is low on Purdue & always high on ND. Purdue is a rushing dog, and at home mind you. I wouldn't mind laying something on the moneyline for Purdue. Aloha from Hawaii.
I think you are on the right track my friend. I've been making money the last two saturdays. I hope we can all make money this week as well as this year. Hopefully we share the same picks this week. This is what I'm playing on this week... Thoughts?
Purdue +8
Miss St. +14
Oregon +7
BC +3
So. Miss +14
Army +10
GL and aloha from Hawaii.
I have a slight lean to Arkansas. But I expect Bama to do what Georgia did and shut down the Hogs rushing game. I've always had a problem with Bama covering these DD spreads. They aren't exactly a team that is built to cover big numbers. Especially in conference play. Bama is great against the run, but the one decent passing team they played FIU put up over 200 yards passing on them. So Mallet will probably have enough success to make the game interesting for awhile.
GS: This is just a thought but the days of the running dogs may be numbered because of the explosiveness of the spread offense. Now days you do not have to have a "great" QB because a "good" one can hit a wide open receiver and they eat up chunks of yards that take much longer to do running. If a running dog gets behind when playing a team with an effective QB and some better than avg receivers then their fate is generally sealed once they get behind. It used to be that teams would slack off when they got a lead and it seems to me back door covers used to be more common. Look at OU LY, who were not known for good ATS records and they, like many others, do not take the foot off of the pedal.
They do not put themselves into the position of letting a running dog get back into the game. In other words, the successful spread teams determine the pace of the games now, not the running dogs. I started noticing and appreciating the spread for what it truly is when Fl St and Miami hooked up in week one. Neither QB was heralded and until that game I would say that they received about as much negative as positive on most of the forums by posters. As coaches like Mark Whipple etc are provided talented athletes they can totally embarrass an opponent because it is almost impossible to contain the spread. Look at the NFL, the scores are way up and those guys on defense are the best in the world. It is the nature of the spread and the evolution of the game of football. Cold weather, rain, etc. can be a factor from time to time, but the days of the running dogs may be coming to an end. I know how hard you study and I know you take pride in your handicapping. I, like you, am slow to change but I am begining to see the light. Defense is still important, and I firmly believe that defense can make the difference. Rushing the passer and putting pressure on him is the key to disrupting the timing of the spread. I watched the TCU/Virginia game and Virginia tried to do it the old way and with 4 minutes to go decided to throw caution to the wind and let her fly. Result, 2 TD's, one for over 50 and one for over 20yds. The next week they improved a little more. It is a sign of the times and like Dylan said "the times they are a changin". BOL.
They do not put themselves into the position of letting a running dog get back into the game. In other words, the successful spread teams determine the pace of the games now, not the running dogs. I started noticing and appreciating the spread for what it truly is when Fl St and Miami hooked up in week one. Neither QB was heralded and until that game I would say that they received about as much negative as positive on most of the forums by posters. As coaches like Mark Whipple etc are provided talented athletes they can totally embarrass an opponent because it is almost impossible to contain the spread. Look at the NFL, the scores are way up and those guys on defense are the best in the world. It is the nature of the spread and the evolution of the game of football. Cold weather, rain, etc. can be a factor from time to time, but the days of the running dogs may be coming to an end. I know how hard you study and I know you take pride in your handicapping. I, like you, am slow to change but I am begining to see the light. Defense is still important, and I firmly believe that defense can make the difference. Rushing the passer and putting pressure on him is the key to disrupting the timing of the spread. I watched the TCU/Virginia game and Virginia tried to do it the old way and with 4 minutes to go decided to throw caution to the wind and let her fly. Result, 2 TD's, one for over 50 and one for over 20yds. The next week they improved a little more. It is a sign of the times and like Dylan said "the times they are a changin". BOL.
GS...When i find myself in the Same spot, which i am...Sad but true!!!I do one of two things...First i reduce the amount of plays, next i reduce the wager size. Sometimes i "think" it helps in many ways. When it turns around, and it will, when is Always the question at hand at this time??? Then back to a few more plays.....Just me!!
BOL as Always!!
obtw You were DEAD RIGHT when you said the Longhorns have been strongly "out pointed" this year.......so far!!! This could help when the Sooners come south?
BOL as Always!!
obtw You were DEAD RIGHT when you said the Longhorns have been strongly "out pointed" this year.......so far!!! This could help when the Sooners come south?
Like most of your plays, but i think Mississippi State is the weak link. This is the least amount of points LSU has given to Mississippi State in several years, and to be honest, this is probably one of the worst Bulldog teams the school has fielded in some time. With LSU now under a two touchdown favorite, i think LSU may be the play here, and i normally don't see much value on road favorites, but this is one of those rare times.
GS, I am inclined to agree with your Oregon pick... but guardedly so. I bet most people here had already given them up for dead. On the flipside, I have to say that stats notwithstanding, Masoli has looked uncomfortable and has appeared to be rushing things a bit. But that new kid LaMichael James has thus far proven himself beyond expectations. If that keeps up, this wager could be gold. Who needs Blount anyway? The UFC?
I think the running dogs angle may kick in strong very soon. In your defense and perhaps mine too, I have never seen dogs cover at the rate they have this early in the season. Parity is a mofo to recognize this early, isn't it? Just look at how well our favorite dog bettor has been doing... none other than CW.
I wish you luck bro.
I think the running dogs angle may kick in strong very soon. In your defense and perhaps mine too, I have never seen dogs cover at the rate they have this early in the season. Parity is a mofo to recognize this early, isn't it? Just look at how well our favorite dog bettor has been doing... none other than CW.
I wish you luck bro.
GS what are your thoughts on Illinois vs. Ohio St. -14.5?
The Illini defense is about 20 times worse than I thought they would be and they are taking the shape of that old Illini defense I used to fade all the way to the bank.
I'm sure you already saw how good this defense made Mizzou look in week one. Well, in week two it looked worse. Illinois St. who was starting their back-up QB put up over 300 yards passing on the Illini D and moved the ball with ease. This was the same Illinois St. offense that got shut down by freaking Eastern Illinois in week one.
I know they play OSU tough usually but they also usually play OSU before the Michigan game and that has always helped the Illini's cause. This year OSU has Indiana on deck and will have the 2007 home loss still fresh in their mind.
Bottom line, I think OSU rolls here by a minimum of 20 points but I'm curious what your thoughts are.
The Illini defense is about 20 times worse than I thought they would be and they are taking the shape of that old Illini defense I used to fade all the way to the bank.
I'm sure you already saw how good this defense made Mizzou look in week one. Well, in week two it looked worse. Illinois St. who was starting their back-up QB put up over 300 yards passing on the Illini D and moved the ball with ease. This was the same Illinois St. offense that got shut down by freaking Eastern Illinois in week one.
I know they play OSU tough usually but they also usually play OSU before the Michigan game and that has always helped the Illini's cause. This year OSU has Indiana on deck and will have the 2007 home loss still fresh in their mind.
Bottom line, I think OSU rolls here by a minimum of 20 points but I'm curious what your thoughts are.
Russ... When I get out the newspaper on Sunday morning and read the weekends box scores I'm still seeing the teams who ran the ball better either covering the majority of the games or winning outright. OU was an overwhelming team last year. But HALF of the reason for this was because they were able to rush for 208 ypg behind Murray and Brown. The spread is a great offense IF you have good line that can protect a QB operating out of an empty or near empty set. And if you have a good Percy Harvin type open field runner it helps. But if a team knows they can stop your running game with just their 4 DL up front, the rest of defensive backfield can hang back and keep all of the plays in front of them. You've GOT to have a good running game to keep a defense honest. You've also got to be able to stop the run. Miami has a much better run stop defense this year (only 103 ypg this year to 153 last year). This is why they are having more success. Jacory Harris is having a great season. But without that run defense he wouldn't have seen nearly as much of the field this season. Miami is also doing better rushing the ball this year (137 ypg compared to 122 last year). The possibilty of a run threat is also keeping defenses honest and giving Harris more time back there. Even Texas Tech, who started most of this spread stuff 10 years ago, hasn't had the success they've had when they were unable to run the ball. Last year they were still able to average 115 ypg rushing despite throwing the ball all over the place. This year they are averaging only 28.7 ypg rushing. Luckily they have a better defense this year and are giving up only 89 ypg rushing. Take Texas. They only had 137 rushing on Texas Tech (averaged 177 last year and why they didn't cover the spread) and Colt McCoy found himself running around more and trying to do too much himself against that Tech defense. Which was the big reason why he threw for only 200 yards (100 yards below his passing average last year). And it all started with the rushing game. Or lack of it. Going back to GT/Miami. GT is primarily a rushing team and they got outrushed by Miami 184-95! Off of this stat alone I didn't even need to see the final box score to see who covered in this game.
