Conan...Like I said, these are just leans. I haven't made Oregon a play and not sure i will. I like the fact that Oregon is giving up only 3.3 ypc playing against a Cal team who is averaging 5.9 ypc behind Best. Which is why Cal is 3-0 ATS right now. So when these two teams clash, something's got to give. This is what I'm trying to decide on right now. Who is going to win the rushing battle? Can Oregon keep the rushing numbers close? Oregon averaged 278 ypg rushing last year, which was the biggest reason why they were able to win 9 games last season despite having a mediocre defense. But this year they are averaging only 147 yards rushing per game, and giving up about 370 total yards on defense. About the same as last year. So these stats alone put some doubts in my head that they can cover despite improving each week and having the homefield advantage.
GS: I just think you are focusing on rushing too much and then you throw in the running dog part and that's where the problem is. I just threw it out there and you seem to want to stick with your approach. I think that sticking with the approach is your problem and you don't. It is obvious something is wrong and in order to correct it you must pinpoint the cause.
I am just saying that I have approached this seasons games completely diferently than last seasons games. The one facet you are not addressing is the way that the pass sets up the run (like OU with a weaker line). The run used to rule but not anymore. I have changed my mindset and I am doing very well. I just thought I would throw my view out there and apparently you are sticking to your guns. Sure defense is important always has been and always will be. There are many "fringe" teams out there right now that are winning outright and ATS that have quick strike capability. LY the SEC was short on capable QB's now, well just look at the Geo/Ark game. Are those guys great QB's, no but the spread offense, which emphasizes passing, makes an average QB look good, and a good QB look great. Sure you need a running game especially in the red zone but in my eyes I do not see teams using the run to set up the pass, it is the pass setting up the run. The spread is a potent offense, basically unstoppable when executed properly. I just have learned to respect that fact. I just really feel that the day of the running dog and lower scoring games is fading farther into the past as more and more QB's who are running it in highschool move on to college and have it down pat.
I am just saying that I have approached this seasons games completely diferently than last seasons games. The one facet you are not addressing is the way that the pass sets up the run (like OU with a weaker line). The run used to rule but not anymore. I have changed my mindset and I am doing very well. I just thought I would throw my view out there and apparently you are sticking to your guns. Sure defense is important always has been and always will be. There are many "fringe" teams out there right now that are winning outright and ATS that have quick strike capability. LY the SEC was short on capable QB's now, well just look at the Geo/Ark game. Are those guys great QB's, no but the spread offense, which emphasizes passing, makes an average QB look good, and a good QB look great. Sure you need a running game especially in the red zone but in my eyes I do not see teams using the run to set up the pass, it is the pass setting up the run. The spread is a potent offense, basically unstoppable when executed properly. I just have learned to respect that fact. I just really feel that the day of the running dog and lower scoring games is fading farther into the past as more and more QB's who are running it in highschool move on to college and have it down pat.
I really haven't looked at this game in depth. It looks like by their stats alone that OSU is trying to become more of a balanced team. They are well over last season's average passing the ball. Illinois is a good defnesive team against the rush. But not so much the pass. Mizzou passed the ball all over the field on them. So I guess how well you think Pryor is going to pass the ball in this game is how strongly you feel about this spread. I'll take a look at this game later and maybe give you a better opinion on it. OSU is 10-6 ATS the last 5 years in conference as 14 point favorites or more. But if you take away their excellent 2006 year they are just 5-5 ATS as 2 TD favorites.
Russ...Whether you pass to set up the run or run to set up the pass it doesn't matter. You've still got to be able to move the ball down the field. My problem is I haven't focused on the running dogs. I've made my PRD lists but I haven't used them in the first 3 weeks. This is the first week that I have gotten them out and actually used it as a handicapping tool..But I don't bet blindly on the running dogs. I realize there are other factors that come into play.. I would have preferred another week or two so i would have more stats. But here's a list of how the running dogs did last week.
Home Dogs:
Idaho +3.5 W
Marshall +3 W
Road dogs:
Miss St. +9 W
UCONN +10.5 W
Navy +8 L
ECU +7.5 L
Indiana +4.5 W
Virginia +17 W
Michigan St. +10 W
Louisville +14 W
Florida St +7.5 W
By the way fellas, the one marked difference with the running dogs this week compared to last week are the number of shorter lines. We were getting some great value with most of the teams that I listed above from last week. But look at the teams this week that barely qualify as the dogs in the running system:
South Carolina +4.5 to +3. Line going down which brings up a red flag with me
NW pick to now 2.5 faves and no longer a running dog
BC +2
Buffalo +2.5
Michigan St. +2.5
TCU +2.5
Marshall +3
Va Tech +2.5
Oregon St +2.5
Troy +2.5
FIU +1
South Carolina +4.5 to +3. Line going down which brings up a red flag with me
NW pick to now 2.5 faves and no longer a running dog
BC +2
Buffalo +2.5
Michigan St. +2.5
TCU +2.5
Marshall +3
Va Tech +2.5
Oregon St +2.5
Troy +2.5
FIU +1
Bro, I feel you on Miss St. but I seen LSU play this year and they are not the same LSU of old. Their defense is mediocre at best. They do have a high powered offense w/those receivers on the outside, but QB play is still unsettled & unproven. I think if they can rattle him & sustain some decent drives then I see them only losing by 10 at most. When I crunched my numbers, I have them losing by 10 & also have them as a rushing dog. GL and aloha from Hawaii.
Hey bro,
The filters that I take even further to make it a high rated play is to look for the following to go along w/what you have said already...
-home team
-public perception and heavy public favorite
So, if those teams are getting played by the public I don't play it. for instance, i wouldn't play buffalo cuz 90% of bets are on them as well as they are playing away. But on the other spectrum, I do like Miss St., So Carolina & Purdue (BIG).
Aloha from Hawaii.
I agree, I go by these factors too. The reason I brought up these short lines and to be careful with the running dogs in these cases is because the closer the teams get to being pickems, it means the running dogs have to more than likely win the rushing battle outright instead of just keeping it close. Michigan State would have been a great bet last week at +10. But now they are going on the road for the second straight week and getting just +3. So now they are required to win the rushing battle outright against a Wisky team who has traditionally been a good running team. It can be done, but it makes this bet more iffy than last weeks line where we had more points to play with.
GoSooners-
I am by no means setting the world on fire this season, but we are all in this together, so I'll share a couple quick thoughts to help you break the funk hopefully. You are the man when it comes to stats. No doubt about that, and they are important, but i think sometimes you are losing sight of the golden rule of sportsbetting and that is to sell high and buy low. It's just like playing the stock market.
The very first thing i do when i go to handicap a football game has absolutely nothing to do with football at all really and it is the bloody easiest thing in the world. I look up the line for the game between the teams last season. Simple. 9 times out of 10, i never go against the team that is getting more line value than they were from the previous season.
Here are some examples from this season so far:
Texas was favored by 6 at Texas Tech in '08 and by 17.5 in '09. Tech covered both games and was benefitting from a big shift in line value this season.
Florida was favored by 7 at Tennessee in '08 and by 30 at home in '09. Tennessee covered the huge line shift this season.
In '07, Oklahoma was favored by 8 at Texas Tech and lost. In '08, OU returned almost every starter and ended up as a 7 point favorite at home vs. Texas Tech which was less than the previous year on the road with a weaker team!!!
This is the kind of stuff you need to keep your eye on in addition to the great job you are doing with the rushing stats. When you zoom out and check out how the game went down the year before and more importantly, the price of the game the year before, you can really find some amazing diamonds in the rough.
I'd be happy to talk to anyone via private message or telephone about how to maximize line value and set yourself up in the best possible way to win money. I too am guilty of going against this from time to time and it almost always burns me. At the end of the day, you still need luck on your side.
I am by no means setting the world on fire this season, but we are all in this together, so I'll share a couple quick thoughts to help you break the funk hopefully. You are the man when it comes to stats. No doubt about that, and they are important, but i think sometimes you are losing sight of the golden rule of sportsbetting and that is to sell high and buy low. It's just like playing the stock market.
The very first thing i do when i go to handicap a football game has absolutely nothing to do with football at all really and it is the bloody easiest thing in the world. I look up the line for the game between the teams last season. Simple. 9 times out of 10, i never go against the team that is getting more line value than they were from the previous season.
Here are some examples from this season so far:
Texas was favored by 6 at Texas Tech in '08 and by 17.5 in '09. Tech covered both games and was benefitting from a big shift in line value this season.
Florida was favored by 7 at Tennessee in '08 and by 30 at home in '09. Tennessee covered the huge line shift this season.
In '07, Oklahoma was favored by 8 at Texas Tech and lost. In '08, OU returned almost every starter and ended up as a 7 point favorite at home vs. Texas Tech which was less than the previous year on the road with a weaker team!!!
This is the kind of stuff you need to keep your eye on in addition to the great job you are doing with the rushing stats. When you zoom out and check out how the game went down the year before and more importantly, the price of the game the year before, you can really find some amazing diamonds in the rough.
I'd be happy to talk to anyone via private message or telephone about how to maximize line value and set yourself up in the best possible way to win money. I too am guilty of going against this from time to time and it almost always burns me. At the end of the day, you still need luck on your side.
Start here GoSooners
When you click the past results tab for any team, you will be able to select the year in a drop down menu.
ND...You ARE the man. And this is the reason I make it a habit to look in your threads every week. I did a lot of this line comparing last season and had just moderate success with it. But 2009 has been a different year. And these line comparisons seem to mean more this year. I admit I haven't done the line comparisons as much as i should have this season. But I will for here on out. The Texas/TT game was a good example. I was concentrating so much on Texas 3 ATS losses to open the season, that I thought with the revenge angle (overrated) that this was the game they break out of their funk. Didn't happen. And it's too hard to predict when it will. When I get the time I'll list the lines from last season to this season with these running dogs to see if I can fine some value there. Right now I'm looking pretty hard at Iowa. They were 7 point dogs at home last year and 10 point dogs on the road. So given the 3 point homefield advantage that line is in sync from last season. But you have to ask yourself, is Penn State as good as they were last year? Right now with only 9 starters back from that team I would say no. BOL this week my friend. And thanks for the insights. Good stuff :toast:
Possibly my favorite example from last year was the Purdue/Iowa game. In '07, Purdue dismantled Iowa 31-6 at home as a 7 point favorite. In '08, Purdue played at Iowa the week after Iowa stunned penn State. Purdue was +17 in that game, a full 24 points in difference and was catching Iowa in let down mode on top of it all! Needless to say, Purdue covered the game easily. However, if you had not looked up the results/line of the previous year's result, you would have had a hard time pulling the trigger on that game because Iowa looked real strong after knocking off Penn State and Purdue was struggling.
It's not a foolproof method by any means. I mean sometimes, teams really are a lot worse from year to year. Not often, but it does happen. I mean New Mexico and Ball State are truly a lot worse this year than last. But, this is only a piece of the overall handicapping pie, albeit a big piece for me.
By the way, I don't know if any of you guys know about this site, but Pags turned me on to it this season. It's called Rotoworld.com. It is a fantasy football site. But it gives you great info on the college football teams and updates of the players. It will not only give you info on player injuries, it will try to give you an idea of how long it will take that player to get back into the lineup and how good their replacements are...Invaluable imo.
