GoSooners Plays for Week 1

[Conan]

GoSooners,

I appreciate how you specialize inference statistical problems, primarily in the physical aspects of this endeavor. You seem especially interested in confidence procedures tailored for specific goals and in quantifying the uncertainty in inferences that rely on numerical models of complex physical systems.

I thought you'd appreciate that this fine Saturday, the second to the last before it becomes kinetic.

:toast:

 

[GoSooners]

GoSooners,

I appreciate how you specialize inference statistical problems, primarily in the physical aspects of this endeavor. You seem especially interested in confidence procedures tailored for specific goals and in quantifying the uncertainty in inferences that rely on numerical models of complex physical systems.

I thought you'd appreciate that this fine Saturday, the second to the last before it becomes kinetic.

:toast:

Conan...You've got my head spinning like Linda Blair. :lol:

 

[BRUTUS]

go sooners;just wondering if u could tell me your record the last few years;broken down by record for 1*2*3* etc
thanks

 

[GoSooners]

go sooners;just wondering if u could tell me your record the last few years;broken down by record for 1*2*3* etc
thanks

I didn't exactly have a season to remember last year. Mainly because I tried to do a few different things with my strength of plays and wagering that I never tried before and it didn't work well for me. I won't be doing that this year. The max amount plays each week will be between 5 and 8 as opposed to the 292 plays I made last season. Which comes out to 19 plays a week. So it's going to hopefully be quantity over quality this year. I've tried to retrieve my previous years on here and am having problems doing it. I can tell you that I did a little better in 2007 than 2008. And better in 2006 than 2007. One year I hit 70%. But I'm not sure if it was 2005 or 2006. Until I can find the exact key words that I used on my thread titles on my Search engine I can't get to them. And don't think I haven't tried, because I'm curious myself since I've not really been one for keeping records. If I find them i'll post them. The places where I keep close track of my profits are in my sports books. The bottom line is this is where I know I'm having the most success. Here is last years star plays. I won't be using the one star system this year. Just 2,3 4.

* 83-82
** 42-42
*** 18-24-1
**** 8-3

 

[jblonghorn]

Many of you will disagree with this. But these are the teams who I think will get WAY too much love this year on the lines, and the bettors will come out disappointed in more games than they win.:

Ole Miss
Bama
NCST
Rutgers
Baylor
Okie State
Oklahoma
Penn State
Cal
TCU

Every one of these teams won 8 or more games ATS last season. And for those of you who weren't here in the forum durning the summer, the chances of any of these teams repeating that feat are remote. We only get an average of about one ATS repeater a season in college football. And something like 20 teams beat the spread last season (8 wins or more ATS) Play at your own risk, or pick your spots with these teams, because more than likely they won't get a break with the lines.

Good list. I agree GS. I might also add Florida and Texas to the list, as Texas went 10-2 or 9-3 ATS last year and there's no way they do that again with all the love they're getting. I also think Florida's in the same boat. They'll be favored by 30 points in probably 8 games this year. There's bound to be a few letdowns after LSU and a few others...

 

[GoSooners]

Good list. I agree GS. I might also add Florida and Texas to the list, as Texas went 10-2 or 9-3 ATS last year and there's no way they do that again with all the love they're getting. I also think Florida's in the same boat. They'll be favored by 30 points in probably 8 games this year. There's bound to be a few letdowns after LSU and a few others...

jb...I completely forgot about Florida. And since they were a 10 game ATS winner last season, they definitely belong in the same category as OU, who also won 10 ATS. Plus the Gators are getting an unbelievable amount of gargatuan hype this preseason with being called the greatest team of alltime etc. That's a lot to live up to for any team. As for Texas, I left them off of it on purpose. Even though they won 9 games ATS last season, I actually think this team has the best chance to be an ATS repeater this year. Although repeating IS a rarity. Oregon State would be my second favorite as a possible repeater. Mainly because they are getting no hype, will be the dogs in many games, and will have a good running game and offense. A nice recipe to beat the spread. Plus with the way the BCS mess went down last season, I don't see Texas taking any prisoners this season when given the opportunity. The only drawback is the big lines. I believe the 40 points they are favorred by over ULM this year would probably have been closer to 35 or less last season. To give you an example, and the reason why I probably won't play them many times this year, is the Horns were favored by 24, 26 & 29 against their non BCS opponents last season. Big difference. I can also see Texas being favored by an insane amount of points when they play UTEP and UCF at home. Although I think they are capable of covering in these games, a light bulb goes keeps coming on in the back of my head telling me not to mess with these big lines.

 

[jblonghorn]

jb...I completely forgot about Florida. And since they were a 10 game ATS winner last season, they definitely belong in the same category as OU, who also won 10 ATS. Plus the Gators are getting an unbelievable amount of gargatuan hype this preseason with being called the greatest team of alltime etc. That's a lot to live up to for any team. As for Texas, I left them off of it on purpose. Even though they won 9 games ATS last season, I actually think this team has the best chance to be an ATS repeater this year. Although repeating IS a rarity. Oregon State would be my second favorite as a possible repeater. Mainly because they are getting no hype, will be the dogs in many games, and will have a good running game and offense. A nice recipe to beat the spread. Plus with the way the BCS mess went down last season, I don't see Texas taking any prisoners this season when given the opportunity. The only drawback is the big lines. I believe the 40 points they are favorred by over ULM this year would probably have been closer to 35 or less last season. To give you an example, and the reason why I probably won't play them many times this year, is the Horns were favored by 24, 26 & 29 against their non BCS opponents last season. Big difference. I can also see Texas being favored by an insane amount of points when they play UTEP and UCF at home. Although I think they are capable of covering in these games, a light bulb goes keeps coming on in the back of my head telling me not to mess with these big lines.

Honestly, I don't think Texas has ever been favored by 40 points? It'd be a good study for someone with time on their hands (not that anyone probably cares anyway), but I can't remember them being favored by more than 36 in the Mack Brown era. Anyways, like I've said before...I think this BYU OU game will go a long way in showing how good OU will fare this year. On a side note, I'm really surprised Ohio State is ranked 6th in the A.P. poll. Anyone else think that's a bit high? GS, is the loss of Wolf (LB I think) a big loss for OU?

 

[jblonghorn]

GS, His name was Wort (middle Linebacker). OU's Middle Linebacker injuries sound just as bad as our gosh darned Tight Ends (4 hurt this preseason) Link follows:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4413462

 

[GoSooners]

Oregon (+5.5) over Boise **

A BCS conference team getting almost a TD against a non-BCS team in a game like this borders on the ridiculous. Especially when the BCS conference team has been a reguarly ranked team for the past few years. I expected closer to a 3 point line if even that. What i think COULD happen is this line could be bet down to around 3 to 3.5 by gametime. And I'm also betting that many posters are going to come in here calling Boise their game of the year. But in reality what we have is basically two teams who lost a fair share of starters from both teams. But I think Oregon is going to have an easier time replacing some of their starters, mainly the O-Line. I'm actually not that worried about their D-Line. Boise will be repacing the bulk of their DL and LB's. Which is not a good thing when opening the season against a high octane offense. Oregon showed me a lot of moxie in their bowl game against OSU. And I don't believe that this year's Boise team even belongs on the same field as that OSU team. Giving almost a TD to a Ducks team who averaged almost 500 yards of total offense (278 yards rushing) last season is taking your life in your hands.

Oregon was 10 point favorites in this game last season. They are over 5 point dogs this year. This is a 15 point line swing from last season. Quite a bit in a game that was won by Boise last season because Oregon was down to their 5th string QB. Something else to keep in mind from that game is Oregon was coming off a very tough 2 OT game against Purdue on the road. Boise was coming off two easy home games. This put a lot of pressure on the Duck defense in that game after they lost their QB, which is a position that is very intrigual to this offense. I am really impressed with QB Masoli. And I have a feeling that after what I saw last season, and in the hands of new coach Kelly, that this kid is going to have a breakout season possibly like no other QB this year. The Oregon defense playing on the Blue Turf has been my initial worry in this game. And this is the main reason why I'm giving this just two stars. But I may up this play before kickoff and when they get out of fall practices.. For you stat watchers, something interesting that was pointed out to me; The Oregon defense gave up 383 yards per game last year. BUT, the Ducks offense was one of if not the fastest scoring offenses in the country. And their defense averaged an unbelievable 35 minutes per game on the field. Most good teams will average maybe 28 or 29 during the season. So the yards given up may be a little bit deceiving about this team. And their defense could be a little better than people think when you consider that extra 6 or 7 minutes they spent on the field last year. If you want to find out more about these teams i highly recommend Ducks and Conans west coast thread. You can get a lot of juicy info out of there on these two teams. Meanwhile, I'm sticking to my running dogs. And with the bulk of the front 7 that Boise is missing on defense this year, the Ducks are definitely the running dogs here.

 

[SoonerBS]

You and Conan and UOweDucks are all on Oregon . . . . damn, you're making it hard for me to sit this one out . . . .

 

[AlwaysKeen]

soonerbs,

I'm on Oregon too...

gosooners,

you are a living legend...keep it up bud...

 

[Conan]

Oregon (+5.5) over Boise **

Boise will be replacing the bulk of their DL and LB's which is not a good thing when opening the season against a high octane offense.

Bingo

 

[GoSooners]

May the "force" with the funny uniforms be with us.

 

[GoSooners]

GS, His name was Wort (middle Linebacker). OU's Middle Linebacker injuries sound just as bad as our gosh darned Tight Ends (4 hurt this preseason) Link follows:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4413462

Yes this does concern me considering how fragile Ryan Reynolds has been over the last couple years. I would be surprised if he lasted the entire season. The kid can't seem to catch a break.

 

[yumaverick]

i like the oregon play....i def believe that this should be closer to +2.5 or maybe even a pickem game......i was also thinkin bout playin texas and minny week 1 but on a 6pt. teaser cuz its the 1st week i figure i would cover myself incase they come out a lil rusty....what do u think...

 

[sdf]

i like the oregon play....i def believe that this should be closer to +2.5 or maybe even a pickem game......i was also thinkin bout playin texas and minny week 1 but on a 6pt. teaser cuz its the 1st week i figure i would cover myself incase they come out a lil rusty....what do u think...

dont play college teasers. it's a waste of money

 

[theycallmedug]

Many of you will disagree with this. But these are the teams who I think will get WAY too much love this year on the lines, and the bettors will come out disappointed in more games than they win.:

Ole Miss
Bama
NCST
Rutgers
Baylor
Okie State
Oklahoma
Penn State
Cal
TCU

Every one of these teams won 8 or more games ATS last season. And for those of you who weren't here in the forum durning the summer, the chances of any of these teams repeating that feat are remote. We only get an average of about one ATS repeater a season in college football. And something like 20 teams beat the spread last season (8 wins or more ATS) Play at your own risk, or pick your spots with these teams, because more than likely they won't get a break with the lines.

GS,
Utah fit into this classification 8-3-1 ATS last year... obviously they are gonna get inflated lines after that crazy bowl win, what do you think about week one against Utah St? my book has them -20
Thanks,
doug

 

[GoSooners]

i like the oregon play....i def believe that this should be closer to +2.5 or maybe even a pickem game......i was also thinkin bout playin texas and minny week 1 but on a 6pt. teaser cuz its the 1st week i figure i would cover myself incase they come out a lil rusty....what do u think...

This summer I had the Oregon/Boise game pegged as maybe a 3 point line at best. If it had been that number or less this probably would have been a no play for me. But almost a TD for two teams that are this close is too much imo. Now I've read from a couple posters here that the spread doesn't matter in this game. But in the first game of the season when every team in college football is going all out balls to the wall, you want the points. Especially when you have so much on the line for both teams to set the tone for the rest of the season.

As for the teasers you mentioned, I've never been much for playing teasers or parlays in college football. Which really isn't a good sport to do it with as opposed to the NFL, because you have more of a talent gap between teams in college football. We had a good thread started this summer on this very subject, with a lot of posters going back and forth with their opinions on teasers and parlays. You might want to look it up in here.. Having said that, if you still want to play the teasers in these two games, I would think the Texas game would be the better option so you can get the line under 5 TD's.. I personally don't think Minnesota is going to need the extra points.

 

[GoSooners]

GS,
Utah fit into this classification 8-3-1 ATS last year... obviously they are gonna get inflated lines after that crazy bowl win, what do you think about week one against Utah St? my book has them -20
Thanks,
doug

I use Phil Steele's closing numbers. And I had Utah at 7-5 ATS. Where there could have been a difference between your closing lines and mine is probably either the UNLV line or the Air Force line where they came close to the spread. But some publications won't print the extra half a point that a team might have gotten in a game. Some publications would call it a tie. Some a loss.

As for Utah St. in this first game, I was discussing this game the other day with another capper. And we pretty much reached the conclusion that even though Utah State looks very tempting in this spot and may very well cover, to me this looks like a program that might not quite be ready for the big boys just yet and may not be worth the gamble. They really couldn't come close to the better teams last season losing 66-24 to Oregon, 58-10 to Utah, 44-17 to Nevada and 49-14 to Boise. Plus Utah St. was one of those rare losing programs who would have won money for you last season, with Baylor being the other one. Both won 8 games ATS. I don't expect this to happen two years in a row. Especially with these teams.

 

[sdf]

looks like you're better off just taking Oregon ML.


since 1981, only 42x has a favorite of less than a TD in GAME 1 won the game but lost ATS. and only 12 times this decade has it occurred. and it didnt happen last year.



if the favorite is less than 6 points in game 1, it's only happened 25 times in the past 27 years and only 6x this decade

with a line this low in game 1, either lay the points with the fav or take the dog on ML and increase your winnings

just my opinion