I would say the Team Total on the Texas game may be the better play, but I expect it'll come in at about 49. I think it's very likely that the Horns score that many, but a figure that high just leaves no room for error. A meaningless fourth-quarter fumble from some third-stringer could be all it takes to blow a winning bet.
If you go by last season, Texas cruised to 52-10 home wins three times in a row against their OOC opponents. So 49 might be a doable number. If we get 49. It could possibly be higher. Texas was another one of those teams who did well against the spread last season. We aren't going to get any breaks with the lines this year. My guess is last season this line would have been in the -36 range instead of -40. I wish I knew what Texas mindset and plans are going to be coming into this game. Will they work on their run game more in these early games. Or turn McCoy loose to pad his numbers? One thing that I fear could be different this year from last year in these early games is complacency. I know that last season the Horns were coming off kind of a disappointing season in 2007 in which they lost 3 games. And with new DC Muschamp and all, might have set out last season determined to right the wagon and kick some early ass to set the tone for the rest of the season. Plus it didn't help before that first game that Howard Smeelburger was bragging that his FAU team was going to come into Austin and win the game. So Texas had a little more to prove coming into 2008 and some FAU locker room fodder to boot. But coming into 2009 they really don't have anything to prove in these early games. And the fact that they could sleepwalk through these first games concerns me. Texas could name their score here against a very weak ULM team. I just don't know about the excitement factor of the Horns playing these first couple of early opponents before they play Texas Tech. So I'll probably just pass on this game altogether and sit back and see what Texas does.
If the line hits the +7 number I might have to play Georgia. I'm not sure about their #6 ranking, but I do believe that Georgia could have a better offense this season than people think. That's why I'm looking pretty hard at this 62.5 total. I think this game could very well go over that number. I honestly don't see how anybody in the country is going to hold this OSU offense under 30 points in Stillwater.
Syracuse just lost their PK yesterday, the one who replaced their starting PK this season. Both walked off the team. This should tell you how much trouble Syracuse is in. It is bad enough that you have so little talent that you have to start some kid who has not played one down of football in 4 years as your QB. Did anyone bother to try and figure out why Paulus just did not stay at Duke and play QB? NOw add onthe fact that the new HC has managed to alienate most of the team and the fans, and you have the makings for a disaster of a season. This game was a pass for us until yesterday, when the PK walked off the team. He is the 9th player to leave this team so far. That is a disaster. The line is starting to move up, but you still may be able to get Minny -6.5. The Greek still has it at 6.5 as of now, and there are a few spots in Vegas where you can get it.
a player has 5 years to play 4 seasons of competition (in one sport). he cant play duke basketball but he could have played Duke football. Cutcliffe just told Paulus he would have to play WR and that led him to search elsewhere.
I assume the transferring from one school to another and waiting out a year must apply only for a particular sport (which makes sense).
Missouri vs Illinois..Illinois is definitely on my radar here. The only thing that bothers me about these two teams is the point spread differential change from last season. We are talking about Missouri going from being 9 point favorites (a game in which they covered) in 2008 to 7 point dogs in 2009. This is a 16 point differential. Quite a bit between two BCS teams who play each other every year. The question is how much have these two teams changed in just a one year period. Missouri went 10-4 last season and Illinois went 5-7. So it's rare that you get a line change that big in a one year period between one team who had a very successful season, and one who didn't. But there is no doubt that Booger, Coffman and Machlin will be missed for Mizzou. I still have a feeling that this line is going to go up another point or two before it's over. It may not matter. But this is yet another one of those games where I haven't heard the words "I'm taking Mizzou and the points" uttered by anybody on these forums....Just saying.[/quote]
Just an FYI camp update on the Illini:
First of all the safety position which was a huge problem last year still looks like an achilies heel to a defense with a few other question marks. The middle of the field will be open all day and that was where Chase Daniel killed the Illini the last 2 years. The linebacker crew is completely new with the exception of Martez Wilson who is now the leader in the middle. In case your not familiar with Wilson, he was a big time 5 star recruit that has not yet lived up to the hype. I'm hearing how awesome he looks in practice but the same was said last year then he looked lost as a starter against Mizzou and PSU. In all fairness he was 2nd I believe in tackles and did improve throughout the year as a soph. His play will be crucial for this defense and especially in the 1st game. The D-Line looks solid but the verdict is still out whether or not Josh Brent (starting DT) will be able to play in the 1st game since he had a DUI over the summer and is in Zooks dog house. The D-Line is a great unit with him in there (I think he will play). The corners look solid so far but Miami Thomas, who looks to get a good share of PT, was carted off the field yesterday so they will be a little thinner in week one.
As far as the offense goes, it looks like a very explosive group. Juice Williams looks more accurate which isn't a surprise since he has improved his throwing numbers every year he's played so far. He will still lock onto receivers and throw a pick or two but with the tools around him now, you will see much better results as the O-line has improved, RB's aren't freshman, and he has Jarred Fayson opposite Regis Benn so you can't really double team Benn this year. Also, Jeff Cumberland, who's a 6-5 245 lb WR, is absolutely dominating in camp. He was supposed to do big things last year but broke his foot in the fall and was suspended after that for a few games (still had 20 catches for 382 yds and 4 TD's). After that, you have about 4 more WR's that would start for a lot of D-1 teams. TE is even stacked with NFL prospect Michael Hoomanawanui starting and plenty of depth after him. There just aren't any holes I see with this offense unless a lot of injuries pop-up. Even the back-up QB Eddie McGee would start for half the teams in the Big 10.
Lastly, the new OC Mike Schutz is going to incorperate a lot of running plays using the WR's, especially Fayson who's a Percy Harvin mold (4.4 speed with good cutting ability and bench presses 400 lbs). There should be plenty of new formations and offensive schemes that Mizzouri has not seen from Illinois yet.
Just an FYI camp update on the Illini:
First of all the safety position which was a huge problem last year still looks like an achilies heel to a defense with a few other question marks. The middle of the field will be open all day and that was where Chase Daniel killed the Illini the last 2 years. The linebacker crew is completely new with the exception of Martez Wilson who is now the leader in the middle. In case your not familiar with Wilson, he was a big time 5 star recruit that has not yet lived up to the hype. I'm hearing how awesome he looks in practice but the same was said last year then he looked lost as a starter against Mizzou and PSU. In all fairness he was 2nd I believe in tackles and did improve throughout the year as a soph. His play will be crucial for this defense and especially in the 1st game. The D-Line looks solid but the verdict is still out whether or not Josh Brent (starting DT) will be able to play in the 1st game since he had a DUI over the summer and is in Zooks dog house. The D-Line is a great unit with him in there (I think he will play). The corners look solid so far but Miami Thomas, who looks to get a good share of PT, was carted off the field yesterday so they will be a little thinner in week one.
As far as the offense goes, it looks like a very explosive group. Juice Williams looks more accurate which isn't a surprise since he has improved his throwing numbers every year he's played so far. He will still lock onto receivers and throw a pick or two but with the tools around him now, you will see much better results as the O-line has improved, RB's aren't freshman, and he has Jarred Fayson opposite Regis Benn so you can't really double team Benn this year. Also, Jeff Cumberland, who's a 6-5 245 lb WR, is absolutely dominating in camp. He was supposed to do big things last year but broke his foot in the fall and was suspended after that for a few games (still had 20 catches for 382 yds and 4 TD's). After that, you have about 4 more WR's that would start for a lot of D-1 teams. TE is even stacked with NFL prospect Michael Hoomanawanui starting and plenty of depth after him. There just aren't any holes I see with this offense unless a lot of injuries pop-up. Even the back-up QB Eddie McGee would start for half the teams in the Big 10.
Lastly, the new OC Mike Schutz is going to incorperate a lot of running plays using the WR's, especially Fayson who's a Percy Harvin mold (4.4 speed with good cutting ability and bench presses 400 lbs). There should be plenty of new formations and offensive schemes that Mizzouri has not seen from Illinois yet.
TOOTIGHT....Great info on Illinois. That's what I like to see. As for Missouri, I think the player that is going to be missed more than anybody this year is Jeremy Machlin. I've always thought that he was by far the biggest scoring threat and gamebreaker on the team. And Mizzou will not only miss his presence as a WR, but he WAS their their big special teams threat. Remember his 99 yard kickoff return against Illinois? And his 75 yard TD punt return against Northwestern in their bowl pretty much won them the game. I know this kid was the real deal just by how well he is already performing in the NFL preseason games. So the Tigers will miss him along with their FG kicker Wolfert. Who was mister automatic. And got Missouri out of a few jams with his leg. The special teams difference alone could be the biggest decider in this game. Mizzou just won't have that threat this year like in seasons past.
I think the bottom line with Missouri is they have lost 40 seniors from their team in the last 2 years. So they are very young. So much so that Pinkel is updating the depth charts with his players everyday according to their performances in practice. So they look like they have a ways to go. I think the important thing here is the line doesn't go up from 7. I would hate to see Illinois try to cover a 9 or 10 point spread in a game in which they are 0-4 SU against Mizzou in the last 10 years. if you look at the last 2 games, the final score has come very close to the final line. That's why I would hate to see this line get out of hand.
2007-Missouri -5.5 wins 40-34
2008-Missouri -9.5 wins 52-42
I think the bottom line with Missouri is they have lost 40 seniors from their team in the last 2 years. So they are very young. So much so that Pinkel is updating the depth charts with his players everyday according to their performances in practice. So they look like they have a ways to go. I think the important thing here is the line doesn't go up from 7. I would hate to see Illinois try to cover a 9 or 10 point spread in a game in which they are 0-4 SU against Mizzou in the last 10 years. if you look at the last 2 games, the final score has come very close to the final line. That's why I would hate to see this line get out of hand.
2007-Missouri -5.5 wins 40-34
2008-Missouri -9.5 wins 52-42
This is why he's moving these WR's up and down the depth charts. It's probably more of a mental tactic to get his players to perform better than anything else. But it's pretty obvious that even with a stud QB, they have a ways to go. If this team has to lean on their defense in these early road games they could be in big trouble.
Welcome back GS, I am closely looking at the OSU UGA game. I would love to get UGA +7. I think the Dawgs can play ball control with their stand out running game/offensive line. The one game that really caught my eye was UAB -4.5 over Rice. UAB is returning all 11 on offense and their defense got way better the last 3 games of the season last year only giving up 41 pts in the last 3 games. On the other hand Rice lost the heart and soul of the offense in Dillard and Clement and the defense was nothing to write home about last year. I don't see Rice fairing that well to open the season on the road with a new QB, I think UAB winst this game by 2 td's.
Hey eschamp...It's good to see you back. We aren't very far from seeing Georgia +7. I saw it at +6.5 today in one of my books. I agree with you about Georgia controlling the line of scrimmage on offense. OSU has the experience advantage in this game. Especially at QB and RB. But other than that, these two teams look very even. Georgia has all 5 starters returning on the OL. OSU has 3 OL starters returning. And the Dawgs best lineman (Strudivant) was injuried last season. I know that QB Robinson is a good experienced and underrated QB for the Pokes. But from the info that I'm getting, Georgia QB Cox is a good game manager, accurate with his passes and extremely smart. And although I kind of disagree about the defenses with a couple people, there is no doubt that Georgia has some VHT studs back there. And I find it hard to believe that this team will have two subpar defensive years in a row. I think they bounce back nicely this year. After looking at OSU a little closer the last couple of days, I'm thinking their defense may not be as bad as people think. But with a new DC we'll just have to see how it goes. I can tell you that OSU will be deeper on defense this season. And have filled in the holes of their defense with some fairly highly touted JC talent. But you never know for sure how well this kind of talent will work out. But I think they are in pretty good hands with Bill Young. This is the key for OSU. Their defense has to get better to get over the hump and beat these kinds of teams. But 6.5 is a lot to cover against Richt and crew. I'm leaning toward Georgia in a big way right now. Just hoping for a +7.
I'm going to take a closer look at the UAB/Rice game tonight. The only thing I can say for now is just because a team has 11 starters returning on offense doesn't necessarily add up to being much improved. But I agree that Rice losing Clement and Dillard was HUGE.
I doubt that I'll buy any points in a game this season unless I feel the game is going to be very low scoring and we have something like a 2.5 or a 3.5 line. That's why I'm just going to wait out this OSU/Georgia line. If it gets to 7, fine I'll take it. I would probably except a 6. But it would be for a smaller play. I'm not going to get in a hurry with this line unless I see it start going to 5.5. If that happens I'll grab Georgia at 6.
