jb...Setting lines early in the season are not always about stats and formulas. The linesmakers threw a short line out there for this game probably just as much because of public perception as anything else. And then it got even shorter. The reason why Baylor was such a great play ATS last season was because they were double digit dogs in 8 games! They were favored in only two games last season. Iowa State and Texas A&M. Both at home. And both against losing teams. Now they are pickem on the road against a winning program. A team that was favored over Baylor by 11 last season at Baylor. You give a team 3 points for the homefield advantage, and then compare last year's line to this season, we are looking at a 17 point swing on the odds in one year! That's a pretty big swing considering the majority of the players are coming back for Wake including most of their skill players, who will probably give fits to the Baylor defense. But this is what a successful ATS season will do for you the next season. You lose most of your line value. So as bettors we have to pick our spots carefully with teams like Baylor.
Good luck GS. I will be playing the Under in the Minn - Cuse game. Gophers are making a transition for the spread to a pro-style attack on offense, while the Orange are starting a RS FR at QB (why am I telling you this? I know you do your HW on these games).
I just don't have the stones to play on Minn seeing how the best team they beat last year was Florida Atlantic (record wise, Illinois probably was their biggest win) and they were chewed apart in Big Ten play based on yardage. I will wait until Week 4 and play them against Northwestern simply because I LOVE them in that spot.
MINN's first 3 games: at Syracuse, Air Force, California
NW's first 3 games: Towson, Eastern Michigan, at Syracuse
Got a common opponent in there plus the SOS #'s favor Minnesota drastically, playing two bowl teams from LY. At that point of the season we will know just how good (or bad) Minnesota is, while NW could breeze their way to 3-0 even if they stink. If Minnesota goes 2-1 or better, I will jump on them.
Once again, good luck. I'm trying to cap this one and everything says that Minnesota should win by 7-14 points, meaning you've got a winner.
I just don't have the stones to play on Minn seeing how the best team they beat last year was Florida Atlantic (record wise, Illinois probably was their biggest win) and they were chewed apart in Big Ten play based on yardage. I will wait until Week 4 and play them against Northwestern simply because I LOVE them in that spot.
MINN's first 3 games: at Syracuse, Air Force, California
NW's first 3 games: Towson, Eastern Michigan, at Syracuse
Got a common opponent in there plus the SOS #'s favor Minnesota drastically, playing two bowl teams from LY. At that point of the season we will know just how good (or bad) Minnesota is, while NW could breeze their way to 3-0 even if they stink. If Minnesota goes 2-1 or better, I will jump on them.
Once again, good luck. I'm trying to cap this one and everything says that Minnesota should win by 7-14 points, meaning you've got a winner.
The under could be a good bet for this game. With Minny switching over to a more ground oriented pro-style attack it should significantly shorten the game. I also like it when teams make this kind of change when they already have the kinds of players on hand that can make it work. And Minny's run game and offensive line should be greatly improved this year. I don't know how many games the GG's are going to win this season with their tough schedule.. But with a good QB, and if their running game is as successful as I think it's going to be, they could be a great "running dogs" team who might be able to cover a lot of spreads. I also think in games like this with Syracuse, it really helps if your running game is working. It makes it very hard for the opposing team to come back when you have the lead. Especially when the line is under a TD. Which is a big reason that I got it now instead of waiting.
AA...Are you going to get your Cleanup Hitter:College Football Statistics sheet going again this season? If so, I've got last year's link you sent me. But if your doing it a different way this season let me know and if you don't mind please send me a PM for a link. I would like to compare notes with you on your numbers like last season. I know we matched up pretty well on most of our games with the running dogs last year..
I agree with your assessments of NC State and Baylor both. Whenever I considered them "play-on" games, I really envisioned them being "dogs" coming into the week of their respective games. No way am I playing on them as favorites. In fact, I am considering a play on S. Carolina if their practices keep going well . . . .
The site is fully up and the stats will be updated as early as possible each week, maybe as early as sometime on Sundays if things work well.
The pages are at: http://CleanupHitter.com
For those who weren't in some of the early discussions, those stats only take into account games against Division I opponents.
I'm still debating how I'm going to handle the stats shown on the lines/matchup page. In the past I've always used the season average for all games to date, but I've been using a kind of weighted average for the CFL -- using stats from the last 4 games and tossing out the high and low in each category -- and that's been working well.
Even if I do that, the stats shown on the Stats page will always be for all games in the season.
BS...The problem with the Baylor/Wake game is I was anticipating the line opening at somewhere around Wake -7 and then the line being bet down to maybe Wake -6. But the linesmakers are getting tougher and tougher every year, and they opened this line at -2 and it been bet down to -1. This not only changes how the bettors feel about it with no longer being able to get a handicap on the line for the visiting team, it probably puts these two teams in a little bit of a different mindset. Wake and their coach probably feel like they are getting disrespected a little by the oddsmakers. And will come out to prove them wrong. Whereas if they were TD favorites it puts them in a different frame of mind. Any way you look at it, this game lost it's value from the very start. Which is a problem that I'm having with many games right now. The oddsmakers are getting too good. Maybe they've been lurking around in the RX.:wink:
Same site. A couple of disclaimers about it, though:
* The tables are pretty wide. Anyone with a screen resolution of less than about 1200 pixels wide will have to do some side-to-side scrolling.
* There's a bunch of color coding that shows up on the lines/matchup page. That's just to help me by calling attention to certain items. Nothing there is meant to be an automatic pick.
For the month of September the lines/matchup page will use 2008 stats for all teams.
Hey SoonerBS, what about palying on the ESPN Home team on Thurs nights? Also, in your thread you mentioned this as a "play-on" if the line was short. Is 3 1/2 not short enough? I am not bashing at all here just trying to get a feel as to whether I should consider getting off NC St. ( I have a small amount on them.)
(sorry to hijack the thread GS)
Thanks &
GL to both of you TY and I look forward to your plays
GS, do you think the books are going to factor in the Thursday night home team theory into the line this year? It was pretty hard to ignor last season...
Doogieboy, IMO this game is like betting on a Monday night football game and I think the books put a lot of work into the line. I think it will be hard to find good value in this one but good luck!
Doogieboy, IMO this game is like betting on a Monday night football game and I think the books put a lot of work into the line. I think it will be hard to find good value in this one but good luck!
last year was a banner year for Thursday night home teams
<table id="sortable_table" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="2"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"><td align="center">23-10-1 (4.2)</td> <td align="center">29-8-0 (12.86)</td> <td align="center">2008</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">13-14-2 (-1.1)</td> <td align="center">21-11-0 (7.25)</td> <td align="center">2007</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">18-10-2 (3.5)</td> <td align="center">30-8-0 (12.29)</td> <td align="center">2006</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">8-15-0 (-3.4)</td> <td align="center">17-10-0 (6.15)</td> <td align="center">2005</td></tr></tbody></table>
but it was one year. hard to assume it will happen again this year.
it's not ESPN games but all games.
I also made some money on Tulsa myself last season. But I think they are going to be a little different team this year. Probably not as dominant on offense. At least in the early going. When you lose your QB along with a very good RB and WR and 3 O-Linemen your not going to start out the season as dominant as you once were. But the defense looks like it's going to be much improved. This is a very talented team. But this is probably the least experienced Tulsa team that Graham has had. It's the only thing that's keeping me from pulling the trigger on Tulsa in this first game. Tulane has a new veteran defensive coordinator who likes to be agressive with a lot of blitz schemes while using a zone defense. So this defense will be radically different than last year where Tulane used primarily man to man. And man to man defense just doesn't work well against more talented offensive teams like Houston and Tulsa. I have a feeling that Graham is going to name Texas sophomore transfer Kinne as his starting QB. But Graham isn't going to show his hand to Tulane until they kickoff. I also have a pretty strong feeling that this game is going to go under the total. Your talking about taking a bunch of inexperienced skill players and 3 new linemen on the road and having to win by at least a couple TD's to cover the spread against what I think will be an improved Tulane team.. It may not be quite as easy as it looks. Plus 2 new opposing QB's usually equals under.. I'm always a little leery of a team trying to cover a big spread on the road with a rookie QB. If anybody can get it done, Graham can. I think he's by far the best coach in the CUSA and one of my top 5 favorite coaches in the country.
I was expecting a short line on the "dog" side for NCST in this game not the favorite. I'm still evaluating this game, DB, but I'm not liking NCST right now.
I have also done some rethinking on the "ESPN Home Team System" that did so well last year, too. I do think Vegas will likely overcorrect their lines on these games this year. It was just way too easy to win money playing on the home team last year. Whenever I did the write-ups last month, I was planning on continuing the system because I have played it two years and won money. However, it hasn't been consecutive years. I played it in 2006 and 2008. I don't know what it did in 2007, but I would have to think this is a system that is best not played 2 years in a row.
Practice-wise, South Carolina hasn't just been setting the endzone on fire with their offensive game, but it has been looking a lot better than it looked last year. Part of the reason they have not scored a lot in scrimmages is due to the defense S. Carolia has. We knew that was strong. But, unlike last season, Spurrier has had some positive comments to make about how he sees the offense progressing. Meanwhile, NCST's offense has been looking good, but their defense has been lacking. That could be due to the absence of their best player -- LB, Nate Irving. I have confidence in S. Carolina stopping NCST most of the night on defense, but I don't know that NCST can stop S. Carolina most of the night. This could be a close game and when that happens, we want to be on the dog.
I will not be playing NCST in this game . . . . .
Just a few random thoughts about some of these Big 12 games. I'm still unsure if I'm going to play any of them. I'm kind of waiting around to see how some of these teams do in fall practices and see what kind of line movements we have for these games.
Texas vs ULM..I think you have to either play Texas here or just leave this game alone. 40.5 is a lot of points. But Heisman politics could come into play in this game. Mack Brown might not pull McCoy out of this game until he's got 4 or 5 TD passes under his belt. Which means that we could see him playing in the 4th quarter. Plus with what happened with Texas and the BCS last year, they may not take any prisoners in these early non conference games. But 40 is a lot to give. And frankly, these "name your score" types of games just aren't very much fun for me to watch or play.
Texas A&M vs New Mexico..This game is still on my radar. But it has now gone from -11 to -14. Which means the Aggies and their porous defense will now have to win by 3 scores to cover. I also want to find out a little more of what is going on in the Aggies training camp. I've heard there are a few rumblings going on about lack of communication between players and coach. And Sherman trying to do what Callahan tried to do at Nebraska in trying to force his NFL ideas onto a college team. I'm still not sure how legitimate all of this talk is. That's why I'm playing a wait and see with this team.
Nebraska vs Florida Atlantic..This game is definitely on my radar. I'm just monitoring this team to see how Zac Lee and his new receivers are working out in practice. There are still just enough question marks on the Huskers pass defense to give me a little doubt. The line is at 21. If it should go up from there I don't know if I'll play it. The big advantage here is the Huskers rushing offense against one of the worst rush defenses in the country last season. And only 3 players return on defense for FAU. This is usually the kiss of death for a team like this playing a BCS school on the road.
OU vs BYU.. The line is now at 21.5. I doubt seriously if I'll play this game, although I think the Sooners have a decent chance to cover. But when I see a team like OU who won 10 games ATS last season, it's makes me hesitant to put any early season money down on them the next year. I kind of like to play a wait and see with teams who were successful against the spread. Vegas has a tendency to overcompensate with these lines. And when you look back to last season, the Sooners only gave 18 points to another MWC team TCU. And that was at home. Now they are giving 21.5 on a neutral field. Although this line is just about where I thought it would be, it's still cutting it pretty close to the edge considering BYU is the frontrunner to win the MWC.
Georgia vs OSU..This game is on my radar. But I'm going to try and stay away as much as I can from the marquee games this season. OSU was another one of those teams who were very successful against the spread last season winning 9 games. But with all of the hype they are getting, the chances of repeating that number is very slim. That's why I'm still considering Georgia in this spot. What it comes down to for me is the team with the better defense is getting points. And week in and week out, along with the running dogs, these are the kinds of games that I look for first. And you usually get more of these kinds of games in the first two weeks of the season than at any other time. Two things I'm looking at with this game is how Georgia and their new QB is performing in practice leading up to this game. Because the QB position is where we have the biggest mismatch for the game.. And the line movement. Will this line move off of 6, and which way will it go?
Missouri vs Illinois..Illinois is definitely on my radar here. The only thing that bothers me about these two teams is the point spread differential change from last season. We are talking about Missouri going from being 9 point favorites (a game in which they covered) in 2008 to 7 point dogs in 2009. This is a 16 point differential. Quite a bit between two BCS teams who play each other every year. The question is how much have these two teams changed in just a one year period. Missouri went 10-4 last season and Illinois went 5-7. So it's rare that you get a line change that big in a one year period between one team who had a very successful season, and one who didn't. But there is no doubt that Booger, Coffman and Machlin will be missed for Mizzou. I still have a feeling that this line is going to go up another point or two before it's over. It may not matter. But this is yet another one of those games where I haven't heard the words "I'm taking Mizzou and the points" uttered by anybody on these forums....Just saying.
Texas vs ULM..I think you have to either play Texas here or just leave this game alone. 40.5 is a lot of points. But Heisman politics could come into play in this game. Mack Brown might not pull McCoy out of this game until he's got 4 or 5 TD passes under his belt. Which means that we could see him playing in the 4th quarter. Plus with what happened with Texas and the BCS last year, they may not take any prisoners in these early non conference games. But 40 is a lot to give. And frankly, these "name your score" types of games just aren't very much fun for me to watch or play.
Texas A&M vs New Mexico..This game is still on my radar. But it has now gone from -11 to -14. Which means the Aggies and their porous defense will now have to win by 3 scores to cover. I also want to find out a little more of what is going on in the Aggies training camp. I've heard there are a few rumblings going on about lack of communication between players and coach. And Sherman trying to do what Callahan tried to do at Nebraska in trying to force his NFL ideas onto a college team. I'm still not sure how legitimate all of this talk is. That's why I'm playing a wait and see with this team.
Nebraska vs Florida Atlantic..This game is definitely on my radar. I'm just monitoring this team to see how Zac Lee and his new receivers are working out in practice. There are still just enough question marks on the Huskers pass defense to give me a little doubt. The line is at 21. If it should go up from there I don't know if I'll play it. The big advantage here is the Huskers rushing offense against one of the worst rush defenses in the country last season. And only 3 players return on defense for FAU. This is usually the kiss of death for a team like this playing a BCS school on the road.
OU vs BYU.. The line is now at 21.5. I doubt seriously if I'll play this game, although I think the Sooners have a decent chance to cover. But when I see a team like OU who won 10 games ATS last season, it's makes me hesitant to put any early season money down on them the next year. I kind of like to play a wait and see with teams who were successful against the spread. Vegas has a tendency to overcompensate with these lines. And when you look back to last season, the Sooners only gave 18 points to another MWC team TCU. And that was at home. Now they are giving 21.5 on a neutral field. Although this line is just about where I thought it would be, it's still cutting it pretty close to the edge considering BYU is the frontrunner to win the MWC.
Georgia vs OSU..This game is on my radar. But I'm going to try and stay away as much as I can from the marquee games this season. OSU was another one of those teams who were very successful against the spread last season winning 9 games. But with all of the hype they are getting, the chances of repeating that number is very slim. That's why I'm still considering Georgia in this spot. What it comes down to for me is the team with the better defense is getting points. And week in and week out, along with the running dogs, these are the kinds of games that I look for first. And you usually get more of these kinds of games in the first two weeks of the season than at any other time. Two things I'm looking at with this game is how Georgia and their new QB is performing in practice leading up to this game. Because the QB position is where we have the biggest mismatch for the game.. And the line movement. Will this line move off of 6, and which way will it go?
Missouri vs Illinois..Illinois is definitely on my radar here. The only thing that bothers me about these two teams is the point spread differential change from last season. We are talking about Missouri going from being 9 point favorites (a game in which they covered) in 2008 to 7 point dogs in 2009. This is a 16 point differential. Quite a bit between two BCS teams who play each other every year. The question is how much have these two teams changed in just a one year period. Missouri went 10-4 last season and Illinois went 5-7. So it's rare that you get a line change that big in a one year period between one team who had a very successful season, and one who didn't. But there is no doubt that Booger, Coffman and Machlin will be missed for Mizzou. I still have a feeling that this line is going to go up another point or two before it's over. It may not matter. But this is yet another one of those games where I haven't heard the words "I'm taking Mizzou and the points" uttered by anybody on these forums....Just saying.
