Ufc 101
A little irritated I didn't jump on this before but getting it now while the line is reasonable:
BJ Penn over KenFlo 4u to win 2u
I like KenFlo but I don't see anyone at that weight level that can beat BJ. His boxing is crisp & we know his flexibility is crazy. His takedowns & takedown defense are great also so it gives him many more ways to win. Put grease-gate aside & GSP just handled a much larger Alves so the fact he handled a much smaller BJ should be ignored going in to this fight. I think this line could get up to the -275+ range in the next month
A little irritated I didn't jump on this before but getting it now while the line is reasonable:
BJ Penn over KenFlo 4u to win 2u
I like KenFlo but I don't see anyone at that weight level that can beat BJ. His boxing is crisp & we know his flexibility is crazy. His takedowns & takedown defense are great also so it gives him many more ways to win. Put grease-gate aside & GSP just handled a much larger Alves so the fact he handled a much smaller BJ should be ignored going in to this fight. I think this line could get up to the -275+ range in the next month
Looking ahead...
I hate having money locked up for a while but I'm trying to do a better job of grabbing earlier lines as I'm finding I lose a lot of equity & $$ not doing so.
UFC 104
Shane Carwin over Cain Velasquez 3.63u to win 2.5u @ bodog
We saw what happened to Cain in his last fight when he faces a strong striker with power punches. He struggled on his feet in that one but was able to use his wrestling against a clueless opponent who still had Cain in trouble a couple times. Carwin is bigger & stronger than Cain with those power punches & good wrestling that can neutralize Cain's ground game keeping Cain at risk on his feet for most of the fight
I hate having money locked up for a while but I'm trying to do a better job of grabbing earlier lines as I'm finding I lose a lot of equity & $$ not doing so.
UFC 104
Shane Carwin over Cain Velasquez 3.63u to win 2.5u @ bodog
We saw what happened to Cain in his last fight when he faces a strong striker with power punches. He struggled on his feet in that one but was able to use his wrestling against a clueless opponent who still had Cain in trouble a couple times. Carwin is bigger & stronger than Cain with those power punches & good wrestling that can neutralize Cain's ground game keeping Cain at risk on his feet for most of the fight
Dream 10
I have a couple of dogs for the DREAM card:
Andre "Dida" Amade over Katsunori Kikuno .69u to win 1u
Dida has experience against much better opponents so don't get stuck on the records in this fight. Dida's last 2 losses were to JZ & Eddie Alvarez meanwhile Kikuno has fought 2 guys in his last 5 fights w/a winning record. Add in that DEEP guys tend to struggle making the jump to the big show & I'll take a shot with the Rua trained Dida.
Vitor "Shaolin" Ribeiro over Shinya Aoki 1.17u to win 2u
Aoki is a ground wizard but this will be probably the best ground fighter he's faced in his career. When two great grapplers get together it can be a either a very exciting, technical ground war or a boring stalemate. The stalemate favors "Shaolin" since he is the better wrestler & will most likely be in top position. If the ground is even & they stay standing "Shaolin" has the advantage there too. I think Aoki's only path to victory is to get the sub where as "Shaolin" has a couple ways to win
:toast:
I have a couple of dogs for the DREAM card:
Andre "Dida" Amade over Katsunori Kikuno .69u to win 1u
Dida has experience against much better opponents so don't get stuck on the records in this fight. Dida's last 2 losses were to JZ & Eddie Alvarez meanwhile Kikuno has fought 2 guys in his last 5 fights w/a winning record. Add in that DEEP guys tend to struggle making the jump to the big show & I'll take a shot with the Rua trained Dida.
Vitor "Shaolin" Ribeiro over Shinya Aoki 1.17u to win 2u
Aoki is a ground wizard but this will be probably the best ground fighter he's faced in his career. When two great grapplers get together it can be a either a very exciting, technical ground war or a boring stalemate. The stalemate favors "Shaolin" since he is the better wrestler & will most likely be in top position. If the ground is even & they stay standing "Shaolin" has the advantage there too. I think Aoki's only path to victory is to get the sub where as "Shaolin" has a couple ways to win
:toast:
Adding to Dida .35 to to win .5 @ bodog
Paulo Filho over Melvin Manhoef 1.69u to win 1.25u @ bodog
Prior to Filho's many problems a couple years ago this line would've been in the -350 range or higher. Based on pictures I've seen Filho is in better shape than when he fought last. Hopefully that's a good indication of where his head is at in this fight because when he's right, Filho is a top notch fighter. Unless Manhoef catches him with a power bomb early on this should be a sub win by Filho
Dream 10
Marius Zaromskis over Hayato "Mach" Sakurai .25u to win 1.13u @ bodog
Mach should win this but he had trouble cutting weight & had to try 3 times & still weighed in 1.3lbs too heavy. Since there is no commision in Japan they ok'd it but there is a good chance the cut could have taken a lot out of Mach. The longer this fight goes the better chance there is of Mach getting caught, not to mention Zaromskis does have one punch KO power. Good spot for a long odds dog
Marius Zaromskis over Hayato "Mach" Sakurai .25u to win 1.13u @ bodog
Mach should win this but he had trouble cutting weight & had to try 3 times & still weighed in 1.3lbs too heavy. Since there is no commision in Japan they ok'd it but there is a good chance the cut could have taken a lot out of Mach. The longer this fight goes the better chance there is of Mach getting caught, not to mention Zaromskis does have one punch KO power. Good spot for a long odds dog
Sengoku 9
Lots of lopsided lines in this one so just a couple of bets:
Hioki to win tourney 4.05u to win 3u @ BookMaker
Sandro to win tourney 1.5u to win 5.25u @ bodog
One of these two will almost assuredly win the tourney. I think it's gonna be Hioki as the Sandro/Omigawa winner could end up with some damage going in to the final later in the night. Sandro also has a real chance of winning this & that appears to the matchup the WVR is looking for.
Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Kazuo Misaki .5 to win 1.1u @ BookMaker
Small play against Misaki due to everything going on with him. He's been very up & down lately anyways but now add in the fact that the winner of this fight was supposed to be the #1 contender for rematch w/Santiago except Misaki is facing an indefinite suspension. Misaki also won't be paid for this fight & really only seems to be fighting because it's the "honorable" thing to do. There doesn't seem to be a lot for Misaki to get up for in this fight even though he is the better fighter
:toast:
Lots of lopsided lines in this one so just a couple of bets:
Hioki to win tourney 4.05u to win 3u @ BookMaker
Sandro to win tourney 1.5u to win 5.25u @ bodog
One of these two will almost assuredly win the tourney. I think it's gonna be Hioki as the Sandro/Omigawa winner could end up with some damage going in to the final later in the night. Sandro also has a real chance of winning this & that appears to the matchup the WVR is looking for.
Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Kazuo Misaki .5 to win 1.1u @ BookMaker
Small play against Misaki due to everything going on with him. He's been very up & down lately anyways but now add in the fact that the winner of this fight was supposed to be the #1 contender for rematch w/Santiago except Misaki is facing an indefinite suspension. Misaki also won't be paid for this fight & really only seems to be fighting because it's the "honorable" thing to do. There doesn't seem to be a lot for Misaki to get up for in this fight even though he is the better fighter
:toast:
F Japan
Well it's been tough riding out this run of bad luck but the idiots in Japan got me again. Hioki wins then goes to the hospital but that's part of the variance in a tourney; he should've finished when he had the chances. The Sandro fight is just ridiculous: 1 judge scores it for Sandro & the other 2 call it a draw & Omigawa goes through...WTF?? Only in Japan :think2:
Nakamura was a long shot & based on what I read he looked like one.
Sengoku 9 0-3 -6.05u
2009 total: 59-42 +27.92 units
I already have UFC 101 & 102 picks from earlier so I'm not sure if I'll add on or not but I will put them on one post closer to the fights
Well it's been tough riding out this run of bad luck but the idiots in Japan got me again. Hioki wins then goes to the hospital but that's part of the variance in a tourney; he should've finished when he had the chances. The Sandro fight is just ridiculous: 1 judge scores it for Sandro & the other 2 call it a draw & Omigawa goes through...WTF?? Only in Japan :think2:
Nakamura was a long shot & based on what I read he looked like one.
Sengoku 9 0-3 -6.05u
2009 total: 59-42 +27.92 units
I already have UFC 101 & 102 picks from earlier so I'm not sure if I'll add on or not but I will put them on one post closer to the fights
Ufc 101
Amir Sadollah over Johny Hendricks .9u to win .75u @ bodog
Hendricks is a one dimensional fighter whose main chance to win is using his wrestling for takedowns & playing the top game. Amir has been forgotten about after pulling out of 2 fights but that means he's been training for fights for almost a year & improving his skills. Amir has the kind of bottom game that can catch a young wrestler (see CB Dolloway x2) & has a striking advantage as well. Hendricks does love to throw bombs especially uppercuts but if he leaves it standing Amir should pick him apart w/his muay thai.
Amir Sadollah over Johny Hendricks .9u to win .75u @ bodog
Hendricks is a one dimensional fighter whose main chance to win is using his wrestling for takedowns & playing the top game. Amir has been forgotten about after pulling out of 2 fights but that means he's been training for fights for almost a year & improving his skills. Amir has the kind of bottom game that can catch a young wrestler (see CB Dolloway x2) & has a striking advantage as well. Hendricks does love to throw bombs especially uppercuts but if he leaves it standing Amir should pick him apart w/his muay thai.
Ufc 101
Wow, I think I need to cut down the amount of wagers but lots I like at least a little. Many wagers were made a while ago & the lines aren't available but others are still good:
ANDERSON SILVA over FORREST GRIFFIN 12.38u to win 4.5u bodog & BookMaker
This line is LONG gone, made this bet on 5-26-09.
I love Forrest Griffin but when you're main attribute is your heart then that means your skills aren't impressive enough and the's the case with Forrest. Anderson's technical striking vs the flailing style of Forrest could look similar to Machida vs Evans. People are all over Anderson because he's not finishing guys but he's still dominating fights and winning them all.
The jump in weight isn't that big of a deal for Silva since his game isn't predicated on strength plus he cuts quite a bit to get to 185. Silva has the advantage in every area except maybe heart but this is MMA not a Rocky movie.
Anderson has advantage in striking, quickness, chin & even grappling. Forrest needs to use a gameplan similar to Hendo's but he's not as good of a wrestler as Hendo & based on pics I've seen, weight disparity not as huge as people are making it out to be. I still think a small play under -400 is ok.
BJ Penn over KenFlo 4u to win 2u @ bodog
Also got this line a month ago...I like KenFlo but I don't see anyone at that weight level that can beat BJ. His boxing is crisp & we know his flexibility is crazy. His takedowns & takedown defense are great also so it gives him many more ways to win. Put grease-gate aside & GSP just handled a much larger Alves so the fact he handled a much smaller BJ should be ignored going in to this fight. I think this line could get up to the -275+ range in the next month
Ricardo Almeida over Kendall Grove 2u to win 1.25u @ bodog
Almeida has a sick top game and Grove has shown a lack of takedown defense meaning this will eventually hit the mat then look for a sub. Grove usually tries to use the clinch when striking but that will only play into Almeida's hands allowing him to grab a hold of Grove & drag him to the ground
Amir Sadollah over Johny Hendricks .9u to win .75u @ bodog
Hendricks is a one dimensional fighter whose main chance to win is using his wrestling for takedowns & playing the top game. Amir has been forgotten about after pulling out of 2 fights but that means he's been training for fights for almost a year & improving his skills. Amir has the kind of bottom game that can catch a young wrestler (see CB Dolloway x2) & has a striking advantage as well. Hendricks does love to throw bombs especially uppercuts but if he leaves it standing Amir should pick him apart w/his muay thai.
Aaron Riley over Shane Nelson .8u to win .5u @ bodog
I had Riley the last time they fought but a highly controversial ref stoppage ended things very early. Riley should be able to control Nelson for the whole fight winning a UD
Matthew Riddle over Dan Cramer 1.43u to win .75u @ BookMaker
Similar fighters but Riddle should be a little better in all areas...let's hope he shows it
:toast:
Wow, I think I need to cut down the amount of wagers but lots I like at least a little. Many wagers were made a while ago & the lines aren't available but others are still good:
ANDERSON SILVA over FORREST GRIFFIN 12.38u to win 4.5u bodog & BookMaker
This line is LONG gone, made this bet on 5-26-09.
I love Forrest Griffin but when you're main attribute is your heart then that means your skills aren't impressive enough and the's the case with Forrest. Anderson's technical striking vs the flailing style of Forrest could look similar to Machida vs Evans. People are all over Anderson because he's not finishing guys but he's still dominating fights and winning them all.
The jump in weight isn't that big of a deal for Silva since his game isn't predicated on strength plus he cuts quite a bit to get to 185. Silva has the advantage in every area except maybe heart but this is MMA not a Rocky movie.
Anderson has advantage in striking, quickness, chin & even grappling. Forrest needs to use a gameplan similar to Hendo's but he's not as good of a wrestler as Hendo & based on pics I've seen, weight disparity not as huge as people are making it out to be. I still think a small play under -400 is ok.
BJ Penn over KenFlo 4u to win 2u @ bodog
Also got this line a month ago...I like KenFlo but I don't see anyone at that weight level that can beat BJ. His boxing is crisp & we know his flexibility is crazy. His takedowns & takedown defense are great also so it gives him many more ways to win. Put grease-gate aside & GSP just handled a much larger Alves so the fact he handled a much smaller BJ should be ignored going in to this fight. I think this line could get up to the -275+ range in the next month
Ricardo Almeida over Kendall Grove 2u to win 1.25u @ bodog
Almeida has a sick top game and Grove has shown a lack of takedown defense meaning this will eventually hit the mat then look for a sub. Grove usually tries to use the clinch when striking but that will only play into Almeida's hands allowing him to grab a hold of Grove & drag him to the ground
Amir Sadollah over Johny Hendricks .9u to win .75u @ bodog
Hendricks is a one dimensional fighter whose main chance to win is using his wrestling for takedowns & playing the top game. Amir has been forgotten about after pulling out of 2 fights but that means he's been training for fights for almost a year & improving his skills. Amir has the kind of bottom game that can catch a young wrestler (see CB Dolloway x2) & has a striking advantage as well. Hendricks does love to throw bombs especially uppercuts but if he leaves it standing Amir should pick him apart w/his muay thai.
Aaron Riley over Shane Nelson .8u to win .5u @ bodog
I had Riley the last time they fought but a highly controversial ref stoppage ended things very early. Riley should be able to control Nelson for the whole fight winning a UD
Matthew Riddle over Dan Cramer 1.43u to win .75u @ BookMaker
Similar fighters but Riddle should be a little better in all areas...let's hope he shows it
:toast:
Wec 42
Oh by the way another card this weekend(sorry but no time for write ups):
Fredson Paixao over Cole Province .8u to win .5u @ bodog
Takeya Mizugaki over Jeff Curran 2.44u to win 1.25u @BookMaker
Marcus Hicks over Shane Roller .55u to win .5u @BookMaker
L.C. Davis over Javier Vazquez .46u to win .5u @bodog
Torres/Garcia parlay 2u to win 1u @bodog
Torres/Benavidez parlay 1u to win .75u @bodog
Good Luck everyone
:toast:
Oh by the way another card this weekend(sorry but no time for write ups):
Fredson Paixao over Cole Province .8u to win .5u @ bodog
Takeya Mizugaki over Jeff Curran 2.44u to win 1.25u @BookMaker
Marcus Hicks over Shane Roller .55u to win .5u @BookMaker
L.C. Davis over Javier Vazquez .46u to win .5u @bodog
Torres/Garcia parlay 2u to win 1u @bodog
Torres/Benavidez parlay 1u to win .75u @bodog
Good Luck everyone
:toast:
