Results
Well things didn't go my way, Okami s/b embarrassed by his performance; Rivera is like Aoki for me (never on the right side) & Galesic was robbed a bit...no way in the US that fight continues after Sakuraba takes 30 unanswered shots & offers no defense. On the bright side Hironaka lost the 1st rd but his opponent's corner threw in the towel, apparently an eye injury.
While I'm record keeping I'll subtract the 1u from Mousasi to win super hulk...lame I lose when he withdraws then fights shortly after w/Strikeforce:think2:
Super Hulk 0-1 -1u
UFC 104 1-5 -7.5u
hno:
DREAM 12 2-1 -.3u
2009 total: 89-66 +36.30 units
Well things didn't go my way, Okami s/b embarrassed by his performance; Rivera is like Aoki for me (never on the right side) & Galesic was robbed a bit...no way in the US that fight continues after Sakuraba takes 30 unanswered shots & offers no defense. On the bright side Hironaka lost the 1st rd but his opponent's corner threw in the towel, apparently an eye injury.
While I'm record keeping I'll subtract the 1u from Mousasi to win super hulk...lame I lose when he withdraws then fights shortly after w/Strikeforce:think2:
Super Hulk 0-1 -1u
UFC 104 1-5 -7.5u
hno:DREAM 12 2-1 -.3u
2009 total: 89-66 +36.30 units
Ufc 105
Lots of little action; I like a lot of lines a little but don't really LOVE any of them too much.
Couture .9u to win .75u @BookMaker
Never bet against Couture plus Vera didn't do much against Soczs... or Andy who are lesser wrestlers than Randy. Small bet due to Randy's age even though 205 suits him better than hvywt.
Kang 2.81u to win 2.25u @BookMaker
Better all around fighter. His worst attribute is being lax on the ground & getting caught in a silly sub (see Belcher fight) which isn't a concern against Bisping. Kang back training with ATT which should help his focus & prep which was off his last couple of fights.
Siver .2u to win .6u @bodog
Too big of a line for a guy that doesn't finish fights. Siver has just enough wrestling to keep this standing where he should have a small advantage. Siver finishes fights so Kelly could be in trouble
Wilks .4u to win .56u @bodog
Wilks has a good ground game & Brown has shown a propensity to let guys tie him up in the clinch which could lead to takedowns. Brown has 5 of 7 losses by sub & has been fairly unimmpressive other than the Sell fight but Wilks won't stand around waiting to be hit
Pearson .25u to win .41u @bodog
Similar fighters so I'll go with the younger, stronger guy fighting in front of his home crowd. Should be closer to a 50/50 fight so + money is good here
Swick 2.15u to win 1u
I think Swick is the more technical striker but also has very fast hands to take advantage of any mistake by Hardy who has made some in the past but didn't pay the price for it. Line is pretty close but a little value left
Hathaway 1.1u to win .5u @bodog
Should be putting Taylor on his back where his hands won't hurt him. For as explosive & quick Taylor's hands are, he just doesn't land enough power to KO anyone so he'll be sprawling a lot to stay standing
GL everyone :toast:
Lots of little action; I like a lot of lines a little but don't really LOVE any of them too much.
Couture .9u to win .75u @BookMaker
Never bet against Couture plus Vera didn't do much against Soczs... or Andy who are lesser wrestlers than Randy. Small bet due to Randy's age even though 205 suits him better than hvywt.
Kang 2.81u to win 2.25u @BookMaker
Better all around fighter. His worst attribute is being lax on the ground & getting caught in a silly sub (see Belcher fight) which isn't a concern against Bisping. Kang back training with ATT which should help his focus & prep which was off his last couple of fights.
Siver .2u to win .6u @bodog
Too big of a line for a guy that doesn't finish fights. Siver has just enough wrestling to keep this standing where he should have a small advantage. Siver finishes fights so Kelly could be in trouble
Wilks .4u to win .56u @bodog
Wilks has a good ground game & Brown has shown a propensity to let guys tie him up in the clinch which could lead to takedowns. Brown has 5 of 7 losses by sub & has been fairly unimmpressive other than the Sell fight but Wilks won't stand around waiting to be hit
Pearson .25u to win .41u @bodog
Similar fighters so I'll go with the younger, stronger guy fighting in front of his home crowd. Should be closer to a 50/50 fight so + money is good here
Swick 2.15u to win 1u
I think Swick is the more technical striker but also has very fast hands to take advantage of any mistake by Hardy who has made some in the past but didn't pay the price for it. Line is pretty close but a little value left
Hathaway 1.1u to win .5u @bodog
Should be putting Taylor on his back where his hands won't hurt him. For as explosive & quick Taylor's hands are, he just doesn't land enough power to KO anyone so he'll be sprawling a lot to stay standing
GL everyone :toast:
F Dennis Kang
Well I went against my instincts & it cost me...at the last minute I dropped my Hathaway bet in half & even though I didn't like the line I thought I would get a little easy $$ from swick which would've minimized the damage but ultimately I can't believe what a tool Kang ishno:
UFC 105 4-3 -3.1u
2009 total: 99-71 +36.83 units
On to the next one....
WEC 44
Ricardo Lamas 3.15u to win 1.5u @BookMaker
Kamal Shalorus 1.21u to win .75u @BookMaker
Diego Nunes .83u to win .5u @BookMaker
Well I went against my instincts & it cost me...at the last minute I dropped my Hathaway bet in half & even though I didn't like the line I thought I would get a little easy $$ from swick which would've minimized the damage but ultimately I can't believe what a tool Kang is
hno:UFC 105 4-3 -3.1u
2009 total: 99-71 +36.83 units
On to the next one....
WEC 44
Ricardo Lamas 3.15u to win 1.5u @BookMaker
Kamal Shalorus 1.21u to win .75u @BookMaker
Diego Nunes .83u to win .5u @BookMaker
Ufc 106
Already have this from 10-27 post:
Forrest 3.6 to win 2.5 @BookMaker
The first fight was very close & could've easily gone to Forrest. That was 3 years ago & since then Forrest has improved while Tito has beaten no one except Ken Shamrock x2. Tito is a name in the UFC but his game is old & very obvious; that being said Forrest still needs to stop the takedown or get right back up. On the feet, I believe he's clearly better & one has to wonder when the ring rust & age has done to Tito's legs.
Similar to the last fight Tito needs to dominate the 1st & hope he can steal 2 or 3 for a decision. Forrest needs to start faster, punish Tito for EVERY takedown attempt & make him drag his big ass around the cage...Tito has shown that his gas tank is relatively weak.
Don't fall for the Tito/UFC hype wagon...Forrest is the better fighter at this point in their careers.
Dustin Hazelett 4.6u to win 4u
Karo has only one path to victory in this fight & that is to clinch, take down McLovin & hope to not be submitted for 3 rds. Hazelett has shown one of the best submission games this side of Maia so if Karo plans to play that game he's playing with fire. On the feet it's pretty close but I like Hazelett's long jab vs. Karo's chin forward approach. Karo hasn't shown any ability to KO anyone & Hazelett took some shots against Kos before finally succumbing. If Karo gets put on his back I'll take the submission ace over the judoka.
Add in to all of this the fact that Karo's cardio seems to get worse & worse each fight plus he's fighting some anxiety issues with stepping in the cage & was popped after his last fight for banned substances. This isn't the same fighter that was up for a title shot, he's on the downside of his career & McLovin is on his way up.
Anthony Johnson 1.25u to win 1u
This should be a great fight as both guys have a wrestling base but prefer to slug it out and have quick hands. If Kos smartens up & runs a good gameplan of working his GnP then I would give him the advantage in this fight since we know Kos has great wrestling but haven't seen much of Johnson's. Given Kos' recent fight history it appears he wants to prove to everyone that he has a legit stand up game but he doesn't...yet.
If this stays on the feet then Johnson's quickness & kickboxing work will give him a pretty big advantage.
I think this line is good for a small play but has some definite variance to it.
Let's make that beer drinkin money :drink:
Already have this from 10-27 post:
Forrest 3.6 to win 2.5 @BookMaker
The first fight was very close & could've easily gone to Forrest. That was 3 years ago & since then Forrest has improved while Tito has beaten no one except Ken Shamrock x2. Tito is a name in the UFC but his game is old & very obvious; that being said Forrest still needs to stop the takedown or get right back up. On the feet, I believe he's clearly better & one has to wonder when the ring rust & age has done to Tito's legs.
Similar to the last fight Tito needs to dominate the 1st & hope he can steal 2 or 3 for a decision. Forrest needs to start faster, punish Tito for EVERY takedown attempt & make him drag his big ass around the cage...Tito has shown that his gas tank is relatively weak.
Don't fall for the Tito/UFC hype wagon...Forrest is the better fighter at this point in their careers.
Dustin Hazelett 4.6u to win 4u
Karo has only one path to victory in this fight & that is to clinch, take down McLovin & hope to not be submitted for 3 rds. Hazelett has shown one of the best submission games this side of Maia so if Karo plans to play that game he's playing with fire. On the feet it's pretty close but I like Hazelett's long jab vs. Karo's chin forward approach. Karo hasn't shown any ability to KO anyone & Hazelett took some shots against Kos before finally succumbing. If Karo gets put on his back I'll take the submission ace over the judoka.
Add in to all of this the fact that Karo's cardio seems to get worse & worse each fight plus he's fighting some anxiety issues with stepping in the cage & was popped after his last fight for banned substances. This isn't the same fighter that was up for a title shot, he's on the downside of his career & McLovin is on his way up.
Anthony Johnson 1.25u to win 1u
This should be a great fight as both guys have a wrestling base but prefer to slug it out and have quick hands. If Kos smartens up & runs a good gameplan of working his GnP then I would give him the advantage in this fight since we know Kos has great wrestling but haven't seen much of Johnson's. Given Kos' recent fight history it appears he wants to prove to everyone that he has a legit stand up game but he doesn't...yet.
If this stays on the feet then Johnson's quickness & kickboxing work will give him a pretty big advantage.
I think this line is good for a small play but has some definite variance to it.
Let's make that beer drinkin money :drink:
OK adding a more plays for this card:
Camoes (adding on) - .25u to win .47u @BookMaker
Sadollah 2.81u to win 1.25u @BookMaker
Sadollah by exhaustion late in the 2nd rd...Baroni has no business being back in the UFC
Davis - 4.1u to win 2u @BookMaker
This is the biggest test for Saunders who takes a lot of punishment & Davis' boxing & muay thai background should allow Davis to take advantage
Rosholt - 1.67u to win 1u @BookMaker
Rosholt's wrestling should neutralize Grove's bjj & this will probably be a somewhat boring lay n pray/GnP type of a decision.
Volkmann - .5u to win .95u @bodog
Thiago hasn't shown enough to be a big favorite to anyone. I'm irritated I missed the super juicy lines but still worth a play. Very likely this will look like Thiago's loss to Fitch getting controlled on top for 3 rds
Cane - .5u to win .65u @bodog
I really think Cane will push the pace on the feet which should give him an advantage especially since Lil Nog seems to look overwhelmed at times.
Camoes (adding on) - .25u to win .47u @BookMaker
Sadollah 2.81u to win 1.25u @BookMaker
Sadollah by exhaustion late in the 2nd rd...Baroni has no business being back in the UFC
Davis - 4.1u to win 2u @BookMaker
This is the biggest test for Saunders who takes a lot of punishment & Davis' boxing & muay thai background should allow Davis to take advantage
Rosholt - 1.67u to win 1u @BookMaker
Rosholt's wrestling should neutralize Grove's bjj & this will probably be a somewhat boring lay n pray/GnP type of a decision.
Volkmann - .5u to win .95u @bodog
Thiago hasn't shown enough to be a big favorite to anyone. I'm irritated I missed the super juicy lines but still worth a play. Very likely this will look like Thiago's loss to Fitch getting controlled on top for 3 rds
Cane - .5u to win .65u @bodog
I really think Cane will push the pace on the feet which should give him an advantage especially since Lil Nog seems to look overwhelmed at times.
Core, Im a fan of yours. Great job. I appreciate what you do.
I love prop bets. I personally think Luiz cane vs lil nog will be FOTN tho. They both have good chins and will bang out and could potentially have some decent scrambles on the ground.
Saunders is gonna get KOd pretty quickly or fight very timid and boring... Marcus has been less aggressive with his hands lately, and attempting a lot of takedowns. . No FOTN there imo.
I like rumble vs kos and thiago vs volkmann tho. I could see there being lots of sweeps and scrambles and near submissions, and also i could see the grappling negating and the two banging out. Great bet.
What do you think of Forrest to win a decision at +170. I just hammered this. I love you can bet the max amount as many times as u want. i bet 100$ five times on this. I also like forrest by submission +900.
Best of all I like Kos to win by decision, i believe i saw it a +400. Thats the best bet imo.
I love prop bets. I personally think Luiz cane vs lil nog will be FOTN tho. They both have good chins and will bang out and could potentially have some decent scrambles on the ground.
Saunders is gonna get KOd pretty quickly or fight very timid and boring... Marcus has been less aggressive with his hands lately, and attempting a lot of takedowns. . No FOTN there imo.
I like rumble vs kos and thiago vs volkmann tho. I could see there being lots of sweeps and scrambles and near submissions, and also i could see the grappling negating and the two banging out. Great bet.
What do you think of Forrest to win a decision at +170. I just hammered this. I love you can bet the max amount as many times as u want. i bet 100$ five times on this. I also like forrest by submission +900.
Best of all I like Kos to win by decision, i believe i saw it a +400. Thats the best bet imo.
I think the Cane/Nog fight does have the potential for FON. Whe I bet mine I was literally tilting from Karo pulling out so I very quickly scanned the props when they first came out & made small knee jerk bets...part of my betting that I'm trying to get better at.
I don't really like Kos by decision although +400 is a pretty good flyer price. I really believe they are gonna slug it out & one of them will get clipped. They both have the potential to KO the other. If I was semi-confident that Kos would employ his wrestling then it would look great but ~5 or 6 fights in a row he's tried to win exclusively with his stand up. If he keeps this up he runs the risk of being a slightly better Gurgel. When he learns to mix in both effectively then he'll be most dangerous.
Forrest by decision does look good though I think Forrest has a good chance to turn the tables on Tito & take him down in Rds 2 & 3 getting a GnP TKO. Forrest's wrestling has improved a lot in 3 years where Tito is just an older version of the same guy he was last time. If Forrest pushes the pace in Rd 1 & sprawls effectively it could be a short night for Tito.
I think people are buying into the Tito hype machine when he talks about his back surgery & he's 100%, blah blah...same crap he spewed before his last couple fights 2 yrs ago. Only the UFC itself markets better Tito does.
Tito has a 6 fight deal making his $$ & he's coming off surgery, ring rust, etc so he really doesn't have much motivation for this fight with tons of built in excuses. Recently he's even backed off the whole 100% thing saying he's realistically closer to 80-90%. He'll lose then throw out a million excuses & then hype himself up for his next fight
I don't really like Kos by decision although +400 is a pretty good flyer price. I really believe they are gonna slug it out & one of them will get clipped. They both have the potential to KO the other. If I was semi-confident that Kos would employ his wrestling then it would look great but ~5 or 6 fights in a row he's tried to win exclusively with his stand up. If he keeps this up he runs the risk of being a slightly better Gurgel. When he learns to mix in both effectively then he'll be most dangerous.
Forrest by decision does look good though I think Forrest has a good chance to turn the tables on Tito & take him down in Rds 2 & 3 getting a GnP TKO. Forrest's wrestling has improved a lot in 3 years where Tito is just an older version of the same guy he was last time. If Forrest pushes the pace in Rd 1 & sprawls effectively it could be a short night for Tito.
I think people are buying into the Tito hype machine when he talks about his back surgery & he's 100%, blah blah...same crap he spewed before his last couple fights 2 yrs ago. Only the UFC itself markets better Tito does.
Tito has a 6 fight deal making his $$ & he's coming off surgery, ring rust, etc so he really doesn't have much motivation for this fight with tons of built in excuses. Recently he's even backed off the whole 100% thing saying he's realistically closer to 80-90%. He'll lose then throw out a million excuses & then hype himself up for his next fight
All great points, I just think Tito is pretty hard to finish, and Forrest is fighting on short notice, so he might gas a lil bit too.
Forrest really isnt a finisher.
There really are like a million variables in the Kos Rumble fight. I think thats whats got me so interested in it. Im prob not gonna bet it straight up unless one becomes a signicant dog.
Also, I do the same type of shit, making quick bets on tilt without consulting you guys or really thinking it through. I like to sleep on a bet for a day now b4 i bet it. Unless I feel that the line will change a lot obviously.
