Core42's 2009 MMA bets

[core42]

Doomed

This card was doomed from the start although had I stuck with only my initial picks I would've made $$. Sorry to anyone that followed all of these. Without some bad luck I still could've made $$:
-Karo pulls out negating my biggest play & easiest
-Camoes gets docked a point turning a win into a draw
-Rosholt....well my bad I even commented in someone's thread that he could get subbed but thought I was getting a good price
-Misjudged how awestruck Cane would be, he was not close to himself
-Volkmann appeared to snatch a victory w/his D'Arce/Anaconda choke but let it go for some reason when a stoppage was his only way to win
-Kos catches a phantom finger in the eye stopping the momentum Johnson had created, allowing himself time to regroup

Oh well time for me to regroup & buckle down for the end of the year run


UFC 106 3-7-1 -3.47u

2009 total: 104-79-1 +34.75 units

 

[TraderMike]

Looking forward to seeing your picks. Thanks for the thread core!!

 

[core42]

Well it didn't take long for the lines to get corrected at BookMaker. I got a text that less than 1 hour ago they released Houston -115 & Schoonover +115 & already I've missed it.

Still was able to get:

Houston Alexander 2.59u to win 1.25u
-Kimbo hype machine kept this line low to start. Similar fighters but Houston is more proven in MMA, can use a top game if he wants & Kimbo's chin looks a little more fragile than Kimbo's. Still quite a bit of variance & as Houston climbs the more likely you should be to just lay off

Darrell Schoonover 1.25u to win 1.28u
Maybe I watched a different show but McSweeney didn't look better than "titties" on the show or record wise either. Neither has fought world beaters but titties is 10-0 with 5 tko's & 5 subs while McSweeney is 3-4 being finished 2x by tko & 2x subbed. I think the perception is that McSweeny was the "alpha male" of the house & Schoonover was the quite, glasses wearing nerdo that drinks a lot & gets made fun of. Going with the more well rounded guy at a + number

 

[core42]

Well it didn't take long for the lines to get corrected at BookMaker. I got a text that less than 1 hour ago they released Houston -115 & Schoonover +115 & already I've missed it.

Still was able to get:

Houston Alexander 2.59u to win 1.25u
-Kimbo hype machine kept this line low to start. Similar fighters but Houston is more proven in MMA, can use a top game if he wants & Kimbo's chin looks a little more fragile than Kimbo's. Still quite a bit of variance & as Houston climbs the more likely you should be to just lay off

Darrell Schoonover 1.25u to win 1.28u
Maybe I watched a different show but McSweeney didn't look better than "titties" on the show or record wise either. Neither has fought world beaters but titties is 10-0 with 5 tko's & 5 subs while McSweeney is 3-4 being finished 2x by tko & 2x subbed. I think the perception is that McSweeny was the "alpha male" of the house & Schoonover was the quite, glasses wearing nerdo that drinks a lot & gets made fun of. Going with the more well rounded guy at a + number

Two more:

Jones/Jones parlay 1.1u to win .75u
Marcus/Mitrione fight should look like Marcus & Schaub where he takes a shot as Mitrione tries to get inside those albatross arms. Once inside Marcus will clinch, take him down & unlike Schaub, Mitrione won't be able to escape once it hits the canvas.
Jon's stand up easily outclasses the clumsy Hamill and he should have enough wrestling to keep off his back similar to the O'Brien fight. The fact that he's now at Jackson's camp only strengthens what were previously his weaknesses of cardio & gameplanning.

Schaub .4u to win .75u
I like this match up for Schaub in that his stand up is crisper & more powerful than Nelson's. Nelson has very good top control but Schaub showed his bjj purple belt getting a giant in Marcus Jones off of him from the mount without taking any damage. This is small because Nelson definitely has the advantage in experience & showed a couple times on the show that he knows just the right time to try to get the fight to the ground. Also concerned about Schaub's takedown defense but I think this fight is closer to even than the line gives credit for

GL everyone :toast:

 

[core42]

Big Baby fighting like a Big Bitch....oh well chase time

Adding more to Houston 2.1u to win 1u

Jon Jones 2.95u to win 1u

 

[jonnyg4508]

tough night brotha. uke1:

get em at 107!

 

[core42]

BJ Penn 4.2u to win 1.5u

 

[jbbreese]

whats up core42, i see you follow performify on twitter as well. I opened a twitter acct to follow him and joe rogan. Who do you have more faith in him or brainiac? did you buy the boxslayer package? BOL UFC 107

p.s. the only thing that worries me about bj was when kenflo kept coming thisclose to getting that single leg takedown rounds 1-3, i almost feel like diego is a live underdog. i think ill be blindly following brainiac as i do boxslayer

 

[core42]

2 more small ones & if BJ keep dropping I may add more to him

Struve .5u to win .42u
Buentello has been beating up on tomato cans lately & his power has been decreasing with age. His TKO's lately have been tons of unanswered shots, not actually KO'g anyone. Struve is long & can take punishment so Buentello will have to move in range to throw shots giving Dtruve a chance to clinch & trip. Once on the ground it should be over fairly quickly

Kongo .2u to win .37u
Mir's takedowns aren't that great so he'll likely take a lot of shots trying to get this to the ground. Mir's stand up isn't nearly as good as he thinks it is so after taking some shots he'll want this on the ground. Small play due to high variance

 

[core42]

whats up core42, i see you follow performify on twitter as well. I opened a twitter acct to follow him and joe rogan. Who do you have more faith in him or brainiac? did you buy the boxslayer package? BOL UFC 107

p.s. the only thing that worries me about bj was when kenflo kept coming thisclose to getting that single leg takedown rounds 1-3, i almost feel like diego is a live underdog. i think ill be blindly following brainiac as i do boxslayer

I don't follow anyone per se, I cap the fights myself but I always read Performify's write ups which will sometimes make me pull the trigger on a fight that I was iffy on. Brain makes most of his plays really close to the fight so even if I wanted to follow him, I like to get my plays in earlier. I do follow Brain on some of his boxing/K-1 bets though. The other thing is Brain has access to lines that we American's can't get.

I don't buy picks so I won't be buying Boxslayer's bowl package but he's been great for theRx so I hope he does well

GL :toast:

 

[core42]

UFN 0-5 -10.39

UFC 107 2-1 +1.8u

2009 total: 106-85-1 +26.16 units


WEC 45/Strikeforce Evolution:

Njokuani 3.6u to win 2u @bodog

Mickelwright .25u to win .53u @bodog

Massough .79u to win .5u @BookMaker

Whitehead .25u to win 1u @bodog

Let's get that $$$ :drink:

 

[TheHOFF+]

With you on Massough and Micklewright.

 

[core42]

One more...price is right:

Scott Smith .25u to win .88u

 

[core42]

Year End Results

WEC 45 2-1 +1.74

Strikeforce Evolution 1-1 +.63u


Final 2009 total: 109-87-1 +28.53 units