Strikeforce Carano vs. Cyborg
Couple small plays for a good card that isn't UFC:
MIKE KYLE over FABRICIO WERDUM .25u to win .93u @ BookMaker
Werdum has been out of action for a while & looked bad before the layoff. Kyle has the kind of game to beat Werdum; wrestling to keep it standing or take top position & enough power to test Werdum's questionable chin. At +370, definitely worth a shot
JAY HIERON over JESSE TAYLOR 3.8u to win 2u @ BookMaker
This looks to be the best bet on the card as Taylor is a one dimensional wrestler who took the fight on late notice & missed weight in his 1st attempt. Hieron has good wrestling & trains at Xtreme Couture with better wrestlers than Taylor so Hieron should be able to keep it standing long enough to use his boxing to pick apart Taylor or at least drag it out to test Taylor's weak gas tank...made worse by the late notice & obvious tough cut
MITSUHIRO ISHIDA over GILBERT MELENDEZ .42u to win .75u @BookMaker
Melendez's 2 losses are to guys that out-wrestled him but did it different ways; Ishida for a decision & Thompson to keep it standing & outstrike him. Melendez was training for a different type of gameplan against Thompson & has voiced his anger about the very late change & the fact that he thinks Ishida was training for him before Thompson even pulled out. Hopefully Ishida's gas tank can handle 5 rds & if so the fight could look the same as the last time
GINA CARANO over CRISTIANE "CYBORG" SANTOS .63u to win 1u @BookMaker
Cyborg has looked very impressive & overwhelmed some of her recent opponents on TV (Akano & Baszler) but both of those women are natural 135lbers with Akano being 5'3 & more like 125lbs. Against her biggest recent opponent Takahashi, she was unable to stop her & won a decision not looking quite as impressive. In Carano she will face someone as naturally big as she is with the type of stand up that can hang w/her. Carano's ground game seems to be a little better but I doubt we'll have to worry about it that much. The key is whether Gina can weather the storm early on in each round as Cyborg loves to blitz opponents early in the round before tiring fairly quickly afterwards. That means the switch to 5min rds will favor Gina as she should be able to use her more technical striking & footwork to get shots then get away when Cyborg gets that 2nd wind. Carano has faced much more experienced & overall better opponents in her career than Cyborg has and I think that benefits her as well seeing more well rounded fighters. So while Cyborg's has more stoppages consider that Gina was beating better opponents by decision at a time when even she admits she wasn't as focused due to the American Gladiators gig. She now seems to more focused on her fight career & the fact she easily made weight helps to solidify that thinking.
I originally thought that I would bet Cyborg when the line came out butr the more I looked at it the more I liked Gina. It should be a great fight & hopefully lives up to the hype
GL everyone :toast:
Couple small plays for a good card that isn't UFC:
MIKE KYLE over FABRICIO WERDUM .25u to win .93u @ BookMaker
Werdum has been out of action for a while & looked bad before the layoff. Kyle has the kind of game to beat Werdum; wrestling to keep it standing or take top position & enough power to test Werdum's questionable chin. At +370, definitely worth a shot
JAY HIERON over JESSE TAYLOR 3.8u to win 2u @ BookMaker
This looks to be the best bet on the card as Taylor is a one dimensional wrestler who took the fight on late notice & missed weight in his 1st attempt. Hieron has good wrestling & trains at Xtreme Couture with better wrestlers than Taylor so Hieron should be able to keep it standing long enough to use his boxing to pick apart Taylor or at least drag it out to test Taylor's weak gas tank...made worse by the late notice & obvious tough cut
MITSUHIRO ISHIDA over GILBERT MELENDEZ .42u to win .75u @BookMaker
Melendez's 2 losses are to guys that out-wrestled him but did it different ways; Ishida for a decision & Thompson to keep it standing & outstrike him. Melendez was training for a different type of gameplan against Thompson & has voiced his anger about the very late change & the fact that he thinks Ishida was training for him before Thompson even pulled out. Hopefully Ishida's gas tank can handle 5 rds & if so the fight could look the same as the last time
GINA CARANO over CRISTIANE "CYBORG" SANTOS .63u to win 1u @BookMaker
Cyborg has looked very impressive & overwhelmed some of her recent opponents on TV (Akano & Baszler) but both of those women are natural 135lbers with Akano being 5'3 & more like 125lbs. Against her biggest recent opponent Takahashi, she was unable to stop her & won a decision not looking quite as impressive. In Carano she will face someone as naturally big as she is with the type of stand up that can hang w/her. Carano's ground game seems to be a little better but I doubt we'll have to worry about it that much. The key is whether Gina can weather the storm early on in each round as Cyborg loves to blitz opponents early in the round before tiring fairly quickly afterwards. That means the switch to 5min rds will favor Gina as she should be able to use her more technical striking & footwork to get shots then get away when Cyborg gets that 2nd wind. Carano has faced much more experienced & overall better opponents in her career than Cyborg has and I think that benefits her as well seeing more well rounded fighters. So while Cyborg's has more stoppages consider that Gina was beating better opponents by decision at a time when even she admits she wasn't as focused due to the American Gladiators gig. She now seems to more focused on her fight career & the fact she easily made weight helps to solidify that thinking.
I originally thought that I would bet Cyborg when the line came out butr the more I looked at it the more I liked Gina. It should be a great fight & hopefully lives up to the hype
GL everyone :toast:
Well a very favorites heavy night tonight. Kyle had a legit chance but got caught & Gina couldn't handle the early onslaught not to mention she looked more gassed than Cyborg. Melendez changed things up & was patient for once & really looked great. Hieron/Taylor went just like it was supposed to.
Strikeforce 1-3 +.70u
2009 total: 67-50 +34.12 units
Strikeforce 1-3 +.70u
2009 total: 67-50 +34.12 units
Ufc 102
This will be my official card for UFC 102 so I'll include previous UFC 102 posts into this one:
(from 7-7-09 post)Nate Marquardt over Demian Maia 2.6u to win 2u @ 1/2 bodog & 1/2 BookMaker
Marquardt is a legit top 10 185lber & very well rounded and experienced. Maia is on his way up but really needs to develop better striking to prove he belongs in the contender talk. This will be Maia's toughest test on the ground & while Nate won't sub him he does have great defensive bjj as well as a big weight advantage to go along with good wrestling. Maia is a legit threat on the ground but looking at his opponents thus far he's fought guys that are good at tapping:
Ryan Jensen-lost by submission 4 times out of 5 career losses
Ed Herman-lost by submission 5 times out of 7 career losses
Jason MacDonald-lost by submission 4 times out of 12 career losses
Nate Quarry-lost by submission 1 time out of 3 career losses
Chael Sonnen-lost by submission 7 times out of 10 career losses
Combined-21 sub losses out of 37 total losses. Take MacDonald out of the equation & it's 17 sub losses out of 25 times Maia's opponents have lost by tap out. Conversely Nate hasn't tapped since 2003 even though he's foughyt good sub fighters like Dean Lister, Ivan Salaverry, Jeremy Horn, Thales Leites & Wilson Gouveia.
Randy Couture over Big Nog 2.13u to win 1.25u @ BookMaker
Big Nog has been on the decline & hard to believe that at his age Couture will be the quicker fight & his athleticism plus wrestling will take this.
Keith Jardine over Thiago Silva .7u to win .5u @BookMaker
More well rounded, better camp, better striker, better cardio & I believe he's learned from previous losses where he was "overwhelmed"
Chris Leben over Jake Rosholt 1.1u to win .75u @bodog
Rosholt still just a one dimensional wrestler but his "MMA wrestling" hasn't looked very good nor has his cardio.
Krzysztof Soszynski over Brandon Vera .5u to win .83u @BookMaker
I like to use his smarts & wrestling to dictate the fight against an over-hyped Vera.
Todd Duffee over Tim Hague .88u to win .5u @ bodog
Hague likes to drop his head & eat punches while he flails away. Duffee shouyld be able to take advantage with a takedown & GnP for a 1st rd stoppage
Let's cash these bishes :toast:
This will be my official card for UFC 102 so I'll include previous UFC 102 posts into this one:
(from 7-7-09 post)Nate Marquardt over Demian Maia 2.6u to win 2u @ 1/2 bodog & 1/2 BookMaker
Marquardt is a legit top 10 185lber & very well rounded and experienced. Maia is on his way up but really needs to develop better striking to prove he belongs in the contender talk. This will be Maia's toughest test on the ground & while Nate won't sub him he does have great defensive bjj as well as a big weight advantage to go along with good wrestling. Maia is a legit threat on the ground but looking at his opponents thus far he's fought guys that are good at tapping:
Ryan Jensen-lost by submission 4 times out of 5 career losses
Ed Herman-lost by submission 5 times out of 7 career losses
Jason MacDonald-lost by submission 4 times out of 12 career losses
Nate Quarry-lost by submission 1 time out of 3 career losses
Chael Sonnen-lost by submission 7 times out of 10 career losses
Combined-21 sub losses out of 37 total losses. Take MacDonald out of the equation & it's 17 sub losses out of 25 times Maia's opponents have lost by tap out. Conversely Nate hasn't tapped since 2003 even though he's foughyt good sub fighters like Dean Lister, Ivan Salaverry, Jeremy Horn, Thales Leites & Wilson Gouveia.
Randy Couture over Big Nog 2.13u to win 1.25u @ BookMaker
Big Nog has been on the decline & hard to believe that at his age Couture will be the quicker fight & his athleticism plus wrestling will take this.
Keith Jardine over Thiago Silva .7u to win .5u @BookMaker
More well rounded, better camp, better striker, better cardio & I believe he's learned from previous losses where he was "overwhelmed"
Chris Leben over Jake Rosholt 1.1u to win .75u @bodog
Rosholt still just a one dimensional wrestler but his "MMA wrestling" hasn't looked very good nor has his cardio.
Krzysztof Soszynski over Brandon Vera .5u to win .83u @BookMaker
I like to use his smarts & wrestling to dictate the fight against an over-hyped Vera.
Todd Duffee over Tim Hague .88u to win .5u @ bodog
Hague likes to drop his head & eat punches while he flails away. Duffee shouyld be able to take advantage with a takedown & GnP for a 1st rd stoppage
Let's cash these bishes :toast:
Bad night...I thought the Vera fight was closer than scores indicated & KS didn't use his wrestling as much as I thought. Nog looked much quicker than his last couple fights & training videos indicated & Leben has looked like shit ever since he moved to Hawaii. I should've piled on Marquardt especially since late money came in on Maia.
UFC 102 2-5 -2.61u
2009 total: 69-55 +31.51 units
:>(
UFC 102 2-5 -2.61u
2009 total: 69-55 +31.51 units
:>(
Ufn 19
I've been super busy with my real job so I haven't had the time I would've liked while capping these. I'm taking more chalk than I like to but most UFN's are chalk city. No write ups as I should be asleep before another long ass day tomorrow:
Ryan Jensen over Steven Steinbeiss 1.7u to win 1u @bodog
Jeremy Stephens over Justin Buchholz 6.13u to win 2.5u @BookMaker
Sam Stout over Phillipe Nover 1.9u to win 1u @bodog
Jay Silva over C.B. Dollaway .25u to win .71u @bodog
Steve Cantwell over Brian Stann 2.25u to win .75u @BookMaker
Jake Ellenberger over Carlos Condit .25u to win .76u @BookMaker
Gray Maynard over Roger Huerta 4.44u to win 1.25u @BookMaker
Could be ugly if the dogs are a barking but I like my card :toast:
I've been super busy with my real job so I haven't had the time I would've liked while capping these. I'm taking more chalk than I like to but most UFN's are chalk city. No write ups as I should be asleep before another long ass day tomorrow:
Ryan Jensen over Steven Steinbeiss 1.7u to win 1u @bodog
Jeremy Stephens over Justin Buchholz 6.13u to win 2.5u @BookMaker
Sam Stout over Phillipe Nover 1.9u to win 1u @bodog
Jay Silva over C.B. Dollaway .25u to win .71u @bodog
Steve Cantwell over Brian Stann 2.25u to win .75u @BookMaker
Jake Ellenberger over Carlos Condit .25u to win .76u @BookMaker
Gray Maynard over Roger Huerta 4.44u to win 1.25u @BookMaker
Could be ugly if the dogs are a barking but I like my card :toast:
UFN 19 Results
Well it could've been a much better night or much worse...a night of close fights & bad game plans.
Silva & Ellenberger were VERY live & easily could've won their fights but that's how it goes. Cantwell didn't show up or maybe Stann somehow got much better hard to tell without seeing the fight. Maynard is trying to show he's a striker but that's such bad gameplanning for him. He needs to show some striking like he did in the 1st then start faking the punch, changing levels & getting the takedown similar to the 3rd rd. If he did that all 3 rds to keep Huerta guessing, that's an EASY win instead of a split decision over a guy who turned down another UFC contract to go to Hollywood. This fight was just to fulfill Huerta's contract so he could be done w/MMA :>(
UFN 19 3-3 +2u
2009 total: 72-58 +33.51 units
Back on the winning track
Well it could've been a much better night or much worse...a night of close fights & bad game plans.
Silva & Ellenberger were VERY live & easily could've won their fights but that's how it goes. Cantwell didn't show up or maybe Stann somehow got much better hard to tell without seeing the fight. Maynard is trying to show he's a striker but that's such bad gameplanning for him. He needs to show some striking like he did in the 1st then start faking the punch, changing levels & getting the takedown similar to the 3rd rd. If he did that all 3 rds to keep Huerta guessing, that's an EASY win instead of a split decision over a guy who turned down another UFC contract to go to Hollywood. This fight was just to fulfill Huerta's contract so he could be done w/MMA :>(
UFN 19 3-3 +2u
2009 total: 72-58 +33.51 units
Back on the winning track
Ufc 103
Like I said in my UFN post, I've been shit crazy busy at work so done some capping of my own along w/following others that I respect.
Rafael dos Anjos over Rob Emerson 1.25u to win 1u @bodog
Matyushenko/Griffin parlay .98u to win .75u @bodog
Nick Lentz over Rafaello Oliveira .5u to win 1.2u @bodog
Cole Miller over Efrain Escudero .5u to win .53u @bodog
Martin Kampmann (prop) wins by submission .5u to win 1.2u @BookMaker
Junior Dos Santos over "Cro Cop" 5u to win 3.33u @BookMaker
Vitor Belfort over Rich Franklin 1.25u to win 1.31u @bodog
Let's get that $$$$$$$ :toast:
Like I said in my UFN post, I've been shit crazy busy at work so done some capping of my own along w/following others that I respect.
Rafael dos Anjos over Rob Emerson 1.25u to win 1u @bodog
Matyushenko/Griffin parlay .98u to win .75u @bodog
Nick Lentz over Rafaello Oliveira .5u to win 1.2u @bodog
Cole Miller over Efrain Escudero .5u to win .53u @bodog
Martin Kampmann (prop) wins by submission .5u to win 1.2u @BookMaker
Junior Dos Santos over "Cro Cop" 5u to win 3.33u @BookMaker
Vitor Belfort over Rich Franklin 1.25u to win 1.31u @bodog
Let's get that $$$$$$$ :toast:
Good card for me, would've been better had I pulled the trigger on my other prop which was Daley by KO, TKO. I figured those were the 2 most likely scenarios Kampmann by sub or Daley by KO...Kampmann's takedowns were horrendous; he should've watched the Thompson/Daley fight.
UFC 103 5-2 +6.59u
2009 total: 77-60 +40.10 units
:drink:
UFC 103 5-2 +6.59u
2009 total: 77-60 +40.10 units
:drink:
Adcc 2009
Found this on BookMaker for the superfight coming up at Abu Dhabi 2009 in Barcelona.
Jacare over Robert Drysdale 1.5u to win 2.55u
Roger Gracie had to drop out due to injury and Jacare called Kid Peligro to be the replacement. Jacare has been focusing on his MMA career but a big part of it is his no gi bjj so it's not like he's completely been away from the sport. Drysdale will have thesize advantage but that's nothing new as Jacare has beaten bigger opponents to win the absolute division in bjj tourneys before. Jacare has a more aggressive style so even if this fight doesn't end in a submission I believe that Jacare has a better chance of winning on points. Getting Jacare as an underdog I think is a gift in this one.
:toast:
Found this on BookMaker for the superfight coming up at Abu Dhabi 2009 in Barcelona.
Jacare over Robert Drysdale 1.5u to win 2.55u
Roger Gracie had to drop out due to injury and Jacare called Kid Peligro to be the replacement. Jacare has been focusing on his MMA career but a big part of it is his no gi bjj so it's not like he's completely been away from the sport. Drysdale will have thesize advantage but that's nothing new as Jacare has beaten bigger opponents to win the absolute division in bjj tourneys before. Jacare has a more aggressive style so even if this fight doesn't end in a submission I believe that Jacare has a better chance of winning on points. Getting Jacare as an underdog I think is a gift in this one.
:toast:
