Core42's 2009 MMA bets

[core42]

Hopefully this is a good sign but lots of movement on the fights I recommended:
At bodog these lines shifted from last night to now(not the price I got just what I saw last night):

Dollar +230 to +195
Osipczak -200 to -280
Diaz -155 to -190
Winner -185 to -250
Tibau -250 to -295
Wilks +275 to +250

Line movement is much easier to see in these UFN events due to the late release of the lines

 

[MoonRunX]

Core42s 2009 MMA bets

Im not really a MMA fan but I wanted to get in on this. I mean if they did fight they would draw alot of money. 2 former WWE superstars going at it especially their size. So yeah I think we will see it sometime.

 

[core42]

F'd in the ass w/no vaseline

Sorry to anyone that followed me ^<<^, I haven't watched the fights yet as I was out drinking & hearing some live music. This was a bad event although it was really the Tibau fight that ruined it. Interestingly both MMAJunkie & Sherdog scored the fight for Tibau but the judges scored it for Guillard....hmmm. No matter really, Tibau should be shot for not finishing that piece of crap Guillard.

UFN 3-4 -4.17

2009 record 52-29 +39.34 units

 

[TheBrainiac]

I didn't understand it either , UFC gave some round to Guida just for a takedown against Sanchez who was dominating in every other aspect , even on the ground he has had nasty elbows from bottom . So how did Melvin win 2 rounds when Tibau was getting him down several times every round and UFC is all about takedowns in their scoring , very weird win for Guillard ...

 

[core42]

I know, sometimes the judging in MMA is completely messed up. That one fight was the difference between a +3.33u winning night or the losing night I had...F those judges

 

[TheBrainiac]

I know, sometimes the judging in MMA is completely messed up. That one fight was the difference between a +3.33u winning night or the losing night I had...F those judges

Both had Garcia up as well against Blackburn and he lost , also whats up lately with them not telling the score ? Scoring system is a huge problem in MMA just like early stoppages .

 

[core42]

Affliction: Trilogy

Affliction: Trilogy

Gegard Mousasi over Renato "Babalu" Sobral 2.6u to win 2u
I really think this line will get much worse by the time the show rolls around. Babalu has a history of subbing guys that are good strikers without much ground game. Although Mousasi is a good striker he's also adept on the ground as well with several sub wins. My main concern is Mousasi's wrestling which hasn't looked that great & makes him susceptible to be taken down by Babalu & allowing him to ride out a decision. I think Mousasi's bjj will be good enough to tie up Babalu on the ground to get it standing where he has a big advantage. Good value at this point (-130) but the value will probably be lost by fight time

 

[self_sponsored]

Affliction: Trilogy

Gegard Mousasi over Renato "Babalu" Sobral 2.6u to win 2u

I don't have this line on my site, but Gergards been looking very slick in his past outings. I hopefully can get this around -130 when it becomes available. I think it's a good bet

 

[core42]

It's still -130 at BookMaker/BetCRIS but my other book bodog has it at -160

 

[core42]

Ufc 100

I will have more plays coming for UFC 100...doing more research & also waiting for some lines to move.

Dan Henderson over Michael Bisping 7.35u to win 3.5u @ BookMaker
I'm really not sure what is going on with this line but it opened around -290, went up & has now come down a lot. I don't see where Bisping is better than Hendo other than being younger. Hendo has better stand up & is much more powerful and obviously Hendo's clinch/wrestling game is far better than so and Hendo has shown a good chin in the past so while I was considering a play at -300 I'm jumping all over -210
:toast:

 

[core42]

Ufc 102

In before the line movement:

Nate Marquardt over Demian Maia 2.6u to win 2u @ 1/2 bodog & 1/2 BookMaker

Marquardt is a legit top 10 185lber & very well rounded and experienced. Maia is on his way up but really needs to develop better striking to prove he belongs in the contender talk. This will be Maia's toughest test on the ground & while Nate won't sub him he does have great defensive bjj as well as a big weight advantage to go along with good wrestling. Maia is a legit threat on the ground but looking at his opponents thus far he's fought guys that are good at tapping:
Ryan Jensen-lost by submission 4 times out of 5 career losses
Ed Herman-lost by submission 5 times out of 7 career losses
Jason MacDonald-lost by submission 4 times out of 12 career losses
Nate Quarry-lost by submission 1 time out of 3 career losses
Chael Sonnen-lost by submission 7 times out of 10 career losses
Combined-21 sub losses out of 37 total losses. Take MacDonald out of the equation & it's 17 sub losses out of 25 times Maia's opponents have lost by tap out. Conversely Nate hasn't tapped since 2003 even though he's foughyt good sub fighters like Dean Lister, Ivan Salaverry, Jeremy Horn, Thales Leites & Wilson Gouveia.

:toast:

 

[core42]

More UFC 100

I will have more plays coming for UFC 100...doing more research & also waiting for some lines to move.

Dan Henderson over Michael Bisping 7.35u to win 3.5u @ BookMaker
I'm really not sure what is going on with this line but it opened around -290, went up & has now come down a lot. I don't see where Bisping is better than Hendo other than being younger. Hendo has better stand up & is much more powerful and obviously Hendo's clinch/wrestling game is far better than so and Hendo has shown a good chin in the past so while I was considering a play at -300 I'm jumping all over -210
:toast:

Not sure if it's the luster of the card & linesmakers think more public money will be bet but I see a lot of value on this card. I almost like a bet on every fight but here's what I have so far with at least one more coming.

T.J. Grant over Dong Hyun Kim .5u to win 1.03u
Kim is a judoka who loves to play the top game but Grant is a bjj brown belt who has 12 of his 14 wins by submission meaning he should be able to neutralize Kim's normal advantage. Grant is very aggressive & is pretty well rounded making this a good play on the dog.

Jake O'Brien over Jon Jones .5u to win 1.5u
People are loving Jon Jones but to make him this big of a favorite while still pretty untested is crazy. Jones striking is pretty funky which confused Bonnar & allowed Jones to overwhelm him early & get him in trouble that he never recovered from. O'Brien has a solid shot as he is a HW fighting at LHW for the 2nd time and has power in his punches. O'Brien was a D1 wrestler and has the chance to put Jones on his back which is something we haven't seen yet but historically wrestlers (esp. young ones) are pretty clueless when not in top position. Jones should be favored but O'Brien's punching power & wrestling give him a couple paths to victory so definitely worth a play

Parlays:
Fitch/Bonnar 2.96u to win 1.5u
Both guys should win pretty handily. Thiago not even close to Fitch's league & I don't think he'll shock the world 2x in a row. Coleman is a walking corpse & will probably gas at the 2:00min mark of the 1st. Even if Coleman can get Bonnar down he has good bjj & can threaten from the bottom. Remember that he is a Gracie jiu jitsu student...he just prefers to use his boxing background.

Fitch/Dolloway 1.99u to win 1.25u
Dolloway is a better wrestler than Lawlor & a little better standing & Lawlor hasn't shown any sub skills so he should spend a lot of time on his back.

Brock Lesnar over Frank Mir 3.85u to win 1.75u
Brock is a beast who can win this on his feet or by GnP. Lesnar got caught by a rookie mistake the 1st time around caused by rushing things. He has shown lots of improvement from fight to fight so making such a bad mistake shouldn't happen again. Remember Mir was rocked by Brock's 6x hands & probably will be again. Mir supporters pointy to the Nog fight but after re-watching it Nog never should've been fighting with as many injuries as he had. Mir looked good in that fight but Nog had ZERO lateral movement & was basically a punching bag. Brock won't stand still waiting to get punched & this time around if it hits the ground expect to see Brock lay on Mir taking his time picking spots to GnP


:toast:

 

[core42]

Adding on...

...to Lesnar. Some cappers I respect are on Brock HARD & moving the line so I added while I could.

Brock 3u to win 1.25u @ BookMaker


For fun also adding:

Parlay Henderson/Fitch/Bonnar/Lesnar .54u to win 1u @ bodog

I was gonna add on to the Fitch/Bonnar parlay I have but Bonnar moved from -360 to -500 on bodog in less than 24hrs

 

[core42]

Not sure if it's the luster of the card & linesmakers think more public money will be bet but I see a lot of value on this card. I almost like a bet on every fight but here's what I have so far with at least one more coming.

T.J. Grant over Dong Hyun Kim .5u to win 1.03u @ bodog
Kim is a judoka who loves to play the top game but Grant is a bjj brown belt who has 12 of his 14 wins by submission meaning he should be able to neutralize Kim's normal advantage. Grant is very aggressive & is pretty well rounded making this a good play on the dog.

Jake O'Brien over Jon Jones .5u to win 1.5u @ bodog
People are loving Jon Jones but to make him this big of a favorite while still pretty untested is crazy. Jones striking is pretty funky which confused Bonnar & allowed Jones to overwhelm him early & get him in trouble that he never recovered from. O'Brien has a solid shot as he is a HW fighting at LHW for the 2nd time and has power in his punches. O'Brien was a D1 wrestler and has the chance to put Jones on his back which is something we haven't seen yet but historically wrestlers (esp. young ones) are pretty clueless when not in top position. Jones should be favored but O'Brien's punching power & wrestling give him a couple paths to victory so definitely worth a play

Parlays:
Fitch/Bonnar 2.96u to win 1.5u @ bodog
Both guys should win pretty handily. Thiago not even close to Fitch's league & I don't think he'll shock the world 2x in a row. Coleman is a walking corpse & will probably gas at the 2:00min mark of the 1st. Even if Coleman can get Bonnar down he has good bjj & can threaten from the bottom. Remember that he is a Gracie jiu jitsu student...he just prefers to use his boxing background.

Fitch/Dolloway 1.99u to win 1.25u @ bodog
Dolloway is a better wrestler than Lawlor & a little better standing & Lawlor hasn't shown any sub skills so he should spend a lot of time on his back.

Henderson/Fitch/Bonnar/Lesnar .54u to win 1u @ bodog

Brock Lesnar over Frank Mir 3.85u to win 1.75u & 3u to win 1.25u @ BookMaker
Brock is a beast who can win this on his feet or by GnP. Lesnar got caught by a rookie mistake the 1st time around caused by rushing things. He has shown lots of improvement from fight to fight so making such a bad mistake shouldn't happen again. Remember Mir was rocked by Brock's 6x hands & probably will be again. Mir supporters pointy to the Nog fight but after re-watching it Nog never should've been fighting with as many injuries as he had. Mir looked good in that fight but Nog had ZERO lateral movement & was basically a punching bag. Brock won't stand still waiting to get punched & this time around if it hits the ground expect to see Brock lay on Mir taking his time picking spots to GnP


:toast:

***edited to add book****

 

[core42]

***final ufc 100 card***

Well it's Prime Rib or beef jerky after this one. I can't believe I found so many spots where I see value. The line movements have been pretty big & have caused me to bet some fights I wasn't planning on. I think it's Prime Rib all night baby :toast:


T.J. Grant over Dong Hyun Kim .5u to win 1.03u @ bodog
Kim is a judoka who loves to play the top game but Grant is a bjj brown belt who has 12 of his 14 wins by submission meaning he should be able to neutralize Kim's normal advantage. Grant is very aggressive & is pretty well rounded making this a good play on the dog.

Jake O'Brien over Jon Jones .5u to win 1.5u @ bodog
People are loving Jon Jones but to make him this big of a favorite while still pretty untested is crazy. Jones striking is pretty funky which confused Bonnar & allowed Jones to overwhelm him early & get him in trouble that he never recovered from. O'Brien has a solid shot as he is a HW fighting at LHW for the 2nd time and has power in his punches. O'Brien was a D1 wrestler and has the chance to put Jones on his back which is something we haven't seen yet but historically wrestlers (esp. young ones) are pretty clueless when not in top position. Jones should be favored but O'Brien's punching power & wrestling give him a couple paths to victory so definitely worth a play

Parlays:
Fitch/Bonnar 2.96u to win 1.5u @ bodog
Both guys should win pretty handily. Thiago not even close to Fitch's league & I don't think he'll shock the world 2x in a row. Coleman is a walking corpse & will probably gas at the 2:00min mark of the 1st. Even if Coleman can get Bonnar down he has good bjj & can threaten from the bottom. Remember that he is a Gracie jiu jitsu student...he just prefers to use his boxing background.

Fitch/Dolloway 1.99u to win 1.25u @ bodog
Dolloway is a better wrestler than Lawlor & a little better standing & Lawlor hasn't shown any sub skills so he should spend a lot of time on his back.

Henderson/Fitch/Bonnar/Lesnar .54u to win 1u @ bodog

Dan Henderson over Michael Bisping 7.35u to win 3.5u @ BookMaker
I'm really not sure what is going on with this line but it opened around -290, went up & has now come down a lot. I don't see where Bisping is better than Hendo other than being younger. Hendo has better stand up & is much more powerful and obviously Hendo's clinch/wrestling game is far better than so and Hendo has shown a good chin in the past so while I was considering a play at -300 I'm jumping all over -210

Brock Lesnar over Frank Mir 3.85u to win 1.75u & 3u to win 1.25u @ BookMaker
Brock is a beast who can win this on his feet or by GnP. Lesnar got caught by a rookie mistake the 1st time around caused by rushing things. He has shown lots of improvement from fight to fight so making such a bad mistake shouldn't happen again. Remember Mir was rocked by Brock's 6x hands & probably will be again. Mir supporters pointy to the Nog fight but after re-watching it Nog never should've been fighting with as many injuries as he had. Mir looked good in that fight but Nog had ZERO lateral movement & was basically a punching bag. Brock won't stand still waiting to get punched & this time around if it hits the ground expect to see Brock lay on Mir taking his time picking spots to GnP

GSP over Alves 3.69u to win 1.25 @ bodog
Well once this dipped back below -300 I took it as I expect the line to get lifted a decent amount between now & fight time. I initially was planning on waiting until fight time to get Alves at a good line but after reading an excellent write up by Eric "Performify" Foster over @ MMAJunkie.com he made a very compelling argument for GSP that I couldn't refute so I took some once the price became more palatable.

Stephan Bonnar over Mark Coleman 9.25u to win 2.5u @ BookMaker
I was on Bonnar already in a parlay but after seeing the weigh in photos & reading numerous sources that Coleman was visibally winded walking up the 5 steps to get to the weigh in it's obvious all his talk of focusing 100% on cardio & having a great cardio camp was all rhetoric. This line should be -500 or more which is what it is at bodog. Coleman looks like he's struggling to flex for the cameras

 

[core42]

WOW...GSP went down again. Adding on:

GSP 4.81u to win 1.75u

 

[core42]

WTF???? Bonnar needs to DIE!!!!
Chasing with GSP/Hendo parlay 2.2 to win 2.0

 

[TheBrainiac]

WTF???? Bonnar needs to DIE!!!!
Chasing with GSP/Hendo parlay 2.2 to win 2.0

Balls deep on GSP here myself , if he doesn't win I am done . Bonnar lost to a 60 years old ? UNREAL .

 

[core42]

Variance is a bitch!!!!

Well the last 2 cards I've lost $$ even though I was on the right side the majority of the time....Tibau robbed then Bonnar acting like a fucktard have turned winning nights into losing ones!!!
If Bonnar wins (which he should) I would have been +13.61u on this card but as it is:hno:


UFC 100: 4-6 -4.24u

2009 record: 56-35 +35.10 units

 

[core42]

K-1 World Max

First foray into K-1 so i'm keeping it small. Wish I would've gotten this in last night since the lines moved but too preoccupied with UFC 100

Petrosyan - 1.75u to win 1.25u @ bodog

Drago - 2.05u to win 1u @ bodog


:toast: