Core42's 2009 MMA bets

[core42]

Dream 9

Not sure if I'm going to add anymore since I'm traveling for work & not sure if I'll have time to cap more

Gegard Mousasi 1u to win 2.2u to win Super Hulk Tourney
Although probably the smallest guy in the tourney he is definitely the most skilled & well rounded. Only put 1 unit on him since I worry about the big weight discrepancy in every fight plus he's had trouble with judokas in the past & Sokoudjou is a possible opponent down the line. Either way for one unit this looks like some good value.

 

[core42]

Dream 9

I was hoping the Hong Man Choi/Canseco line would show up but I haven't seen it anywhere so I'm going with a parlay. (**warning...parlays are bad, in general, & I seem pretty shaky on the success of mine**)

Mousasi/Kid Yamamoto/Jacare 1.5u to win 1.89u


:toast:

 

[core42]

Dream 9

Jacare 5.2u to win 2u

Rewatched the Jacare/Mayhem fight & I don't see how Mayhem wins unless he catches Jacare at the end of the fight or hits him with a crazy upkick a la Mousasi. Mayhem's strength is grappling & he won't out-grapple Jacare and in the 1st meeting Jacare took him down at will & Jacare's top game is pretty sick. I think Mayhem surprised Jacare w/his ground work & I would expect Jacare to be ready to close it out with a sub in the 1st.

:toast:

 

[core42]

Well, that sucked! The funny thing is that I originally had my parlay w/Sokoudjou instead of Kid hno:

DREAM 9 0-1 -1.5u

2009 record 38-18 +39.11 units


Still have Mousasi in it to win the Super Hulk & it's looking good since Sokoudjou can be subbed pretty easily then we have HMC vs Minowa and Mousasi should be able to either sub HMC or KO glass jaw minowaman

 

[core42]

Ufc 101

Getting this now since the line should get worse closer to the fight.

ANDERSON SILVA over FORREST GRIFFIN 5.5u to win 2u
I love Forrest Griffin but when you're main attribute is your heart then that means your skills aren't impressive enough and the's the case with Forrest. Anderson's technical striking vs the flailing style of Forrest could look similar to Machida vs Evans. People are all over Anderson because he's not finishing guys but he's still dominating fights and winning them all.
The jump in weight isn't that big of a deal for Silva since his game isn't predicated on strength plus he cuts quite a bit to get to 185. Silva has the advantage in every area except maybe heart but this is MMA not a Rocky movie.

 

[core42]

Ufc 101

Getting this now since the line should get worse closer to the fight.

ANDERSON SILVA over FORREST GRIFFIN 5.5u to win 2u
I love Forrest Griffin but when you're main attribute is your heart then that means your skills aren't impressive enough and the's the case with Forrest. Anderson's technical striking vs the flailing style of Forrest could look similar to Machida vs Evans. People are all over Anderson because he's not finishing guys but he's still dominating fights and winning them all.
The jump in weight isn't that big of a deal for Silva since his game isn't predicated on strength plus he cuts quite a bit to get to 185. Silva has the advantage in every area except maybe heart but this is MMA not a Rocky movie.

Just added more to this bet. I think if Anderson finished his last 2 opponents, instead of merely decisively handling them for 5 rounds, this line would be around -500 or -600. Anderson already dropped a 205lb striker and hasn't really been in any trouble since Hendo's lay n pray effort against him. That's really the best strategy for Forrest is to try to take Anderson down, lay n pray for a bit mixed in with some GnP to keep from getting stood up. Unfortunately Forrest shows more heart than smarts & will probably spend most of the fight trying to go toe to toe.


Total amount of my bet on Anderson (including above wager) is 12.38u to win 4.5u

:toast:

 

[DoHaless]

Core42s 2009 MMA bets

Sat 1/3Sengoku MMA Saitama JapanEiji Mitsuoka vs Sergey GolyaevMy pick is Eiji Mitsuoka to winOdds : - 200Where : bodog10 units to win 5 units Think Mitsuoka is a much more well rounded guy here , Golyaev won one of the funniest decisions I have ever seen in MMA against Gomi , I am not sure how much russian mafia paid for this one but anybody who has seen this fight should know what I am talking about . Golyaev has never beaten any quality opponents , when he faced them he was finished rather easily like his fight with Hansen .

 

[core42]

Strikeforce

A little late but a couple plays on tonight's card:

Diaz/Arlovski parlay 2.5u to win 1.5u

Feijao 4.3u to win 1u

Shields 1u to win 1.05u

Riggs 2.1u to win 1.5u

Probably too much action for this card but we'll see how it goes.

GL all
:toast:

 

[ksta7090ks]

I am tempted by Riggs pick but something always happens with him in fights....

 

[core42]

Updated record

That's what I get for not putting in enough legwork, although if I would've held off on Feijao I would've been fine. hno:

Strikeforce 2-2 -4.25u


2009 record 40-20 +34.86 units

 

[core42]

Wec 41

Ughhh...late picks again. Hopefully better than last night.


ROLANDO PEREZ over SETH DIKUN 1.5u to win 1u

ANTHONY PETTIS over MIKE CAMPBELL .75u to win 1.5u

KYLE DIETZ over RAFAEL REBELLO .8u to win .5u

MANNY GAMBURYAN over JOHN FRANCHI 3.9u to win 1.5u


Still looking at Grispi & Brown for possible plays

 

[core42]

Adding parlay (when will i learn)::think2:

Aldo/Grispi/Cerrone 1.27u to win 1.25u

Strangely Cerrone is the most concerning to me but we'll see

 

[core42]

For fun I added .5u on Mike Brown to win .5u
One of the few guys Faber can't bully around but I do think it's anyone's fight.

 

[core42]

Updated record

Spent more time on these fights than I did yesterday & it worked out. Actually had a parlay pan out too @)


WEC 41 4-2 +2.45
I shouldn't have made the Dietz bet as I rushed it as the event was starting but oh well.

2009 record 44-22 +37.31 units

 

[core42]

Ufc 99

****Betting Alert**** Remember that this event goes off around noon eastern so get your bets in tonight. Also several of these lines have already moved so make your bets pretty quickly


I initially thought this card was going to be pretty bad betting wise but after doing some work I came up with 4 solid bets & almost had more...

Peter Sobotta over Paul Taylor 1u to win 2.6u
This is a bit of a flier but if you've seen my past "fliers" you'll see I have a good record on them. We have a young kid with real good ground skills against a guy with good stand up but no wrestling or ground game to speak of. Sobotta should be able to get this to the ground where he can play a good top game for a sub or work towards a decision. Taylor does have a chance to get that one punch in before being taken down but as the level of competition has risen, he hasn't shown the ability to KO/TKO guys like he did at the lower levels. Sobotta's inexperience along with the pressure of being the home country guy could be too overwhelming for him which is why I didn't "unload" on this.

Stefan Struve over Denis Stojnic 5u to win 3.2u
I'm not sure why this line is so close except that maybe it's the fact that they both lost their UFC debuts but Struve appears to have a wealth of talents on his feet whereas Stojnic's main weapon is that he can absorb a lot of hits to the head. Struve's problem in his debut against dos Santos was the clinch game which isn't in Stojnic's arsenal. Add in that Struve will have a one foot height advantage & he should be able to pepper Stojnic with leg kicks from the outside all night. Oh and if it hits the ground Struve has 12 of his 16 wins by submission.

Caol Uno over Spencer Fisher .5u to win .85u
I love Spencer Fisher, in fact I was in Fla to see the Fisher/Stout fight live & it was great. The guy loves to stand & seems to have no quit. One thing Fisher doesn't have is good wrestling which is Uno's main strength. Fisher is often able to scramble out of ground situations but I think Uno's ground game is good enough to put him there & keep him there long enough. I kept the bet small since Uno sometimes gets stupid & tries to stand toe to toe with guys that he shouldn't (see the Hanson fight). All in all I think Uno frustrates Fisher & makes this a bit of a yawner doing enough for the decision.

Cain Velasquez over Cheick Kongo 1.85u to win 1u
This is the fight to see who is legit in the HW division and try to clear up the contender picture. Kongo has a definite size advantage in this fight, as well as, an advantage on the feet. The real problem is that Kongo's wrestling is pretty awful and although everyone keeps saying it has improved, you need to remember that it has improved from non-existent to where it is today. In the past he's been out wrestled by some decent wrestlers but in Velasquez he faces a top notch wrestler that should be able to put him on his back fairly regularly. Once on the ground Kongo is pretty lost & Velasquez should be able to control him and unleash some GnP on him. Kongo does have more fights & again his strength will help him but the fight really hinges on how well Kongo can or can't defend the takedown.

Rich Franklin over Wanderlei Silva 3u to win 2u
Silva was my screensaver for a long period of time but like my screensaver, Wandy's chin has disappeared as well. Think back to his heyday and Wandy would use his ultra aggressive nature to storm his opponent throwing a million punches & take as many in return. Lately he's shown that those years of competing in the open weight tourneys against the big bruisers like Hunt, Cro Cop & Fujita have finally taken their toll as he's been KO'd in 3 of his last 4 losses surviving against only the Iceman & we know how he's been doing lately. Even at his best Wandy struggled against counter punchers which is what Franklin prefers to do although he can bring it too if needed. Franklin is a very smart, accurate striker who should be able to pick apart Wandy. Although Franklin isn't known for his punching power Wandy's always moving forward which will create some of the power for Franklin. There's been talk that Wandy will take the fight to the ground & if he does I will be shocked. His bjj black belt has always been used defensively & that training has always taken a backseat to his Muay Thai training. If it does hit the ground Franklin is underrated on the ground & while he likely won't be too active offensively he should be able to keep Wandy tied up enough to get it standing. In the end I see Franklin's counter-punching & cardio being the big keys as he KO's Wandy most likely later in the 2nd rd.



GL to everyone :toast:

 

[core42]

Updated record

I mentioned there were a couple of other bets I was considering which were Siver, Saunders & Hardy which would've netted me even more money but oh well. It seems like when I go apeshit with 100 bets in an event that I get killed so I guess the self restraint cost me a little.
Franklin didn't do what I thought he would but was good enough. Really frustrating since it looked like he really had a chance to put together some punch/kick combos to damage Wandy but never put any together.


UFC 99 3-2 +4.7
I shouldn't have made the Dietz bet as I rushed it as the event was starting but oh well.

2009 record 47-24 +42.01 units

 

[core42]

ShoMMA - 6/19/09

Although there aren't a ton of names on this card it should be pretty good.

Joey Villasenor over "Cyborg" Santos 3.67u to win 1.5u
The lesser known Cyborg is an old school Chute Boxe fighter...think Pride edition Wanderlei except Cyborg doesn't have the chin that Wandy had in his heyday. Villasenor is more technical on his feet & has better conditioning than Cyborg does so as long as Joey can withstand the early craziness of Cyborg he'll win a decision or mare likely finish him in the later rds.

Nick Thompson over Tim Kennedy 1.25u to win 1.38u
I think the wrong guy is favored here. While Kennedy has shown some good stand up & competency on the ground he hasn't fought since 2007. Along with the ring rust he hasn't fought a ton of tough guys whereas "The Goat" has been in with a lot of tough guys & beaten guys that he should mainly losing to top tier fighters like Karo, Shields & Okami. I like The Goat to use his experience & jab to keep Kennedy at bay & if Kennedy takes it down The Goat has good sub skills to keep Kennedy from doing too much damage.

I also like Baszler with 5 min rds but at +160/+170 I just didn't feel it as the right price for the underdog pick since all of her loses are TKO's.


***EDIT*** adding Hector Lombard 2.5u to win 1.25u in Bellator

I'll be back tomorrow with some picks for the UFN

GL everyone :toast:

 

[terpkeg]

gl, im on thompson and villasenor myself.

i cant figure why kennedy got hit so hard as thompson opend as fav at cris. especially with layoff. im sure he works out, but you have to believe he is not getting the mma training he needs to compete againt top level comp in afganistan.

 

[core42]

ShoMMA & Bellator record

Well Kennedy's ground game looked better than ever & he came out w/a different game plan than I've ever seen although that honestly should've been a NC due to 5 straight punches to the back of the head causing the tap...horrible officiating since the ref didn't even warn him.
Cyborg looked better than I've ever seen & also came out w/a different game plan which made this closer than it should've been but Cyborg's gas tank let him down again. If Smokin Joe didn't have the ring rust he showed I think he would've stopped him.

ShoMMA 1-1 +.25

Bellator 1-0 +1.25

2009 record 49-25 +43.51 units

 

[core42]

UFN - Crapload of picks

Well I F'd up not getting bets in last night when I was looking at them originally & the lines have moved quite a bit so while I have a lot of picks they are small:

CAMERON DOLLAR over JASON DENT .5u to win 1.1u
Dent = overrated & while Dollar isn't amazing I do think he's a live dog in this one.

NICK OSIPCZAK over FRANK LESTER 1.65u to win .75u
Osipczak looked much better on his feet than Lester did but I worry about his gas tank & we've seen Lester's chin so I went small but overall I think Osipczak is a much better fighter.

GLEISON TIBAU over MELVIN GUILLARD 5.5u to win 2u
This line should be higher but Melvin has incredible physical tools but this sets up like every other time he fights a guy good on the ground...avoid the bombs, get the take down when Melvin charges in then submit. Add to that the fact Tibau is a big fighter so Melvin won't enjoy a strength advantage like he does normally.

NATE DIAZ over JOE STEVENSON 1.28u to win .75u
If Joe Daddy sticks to his mantra of staying on the feet Nate will use his jab to keep Joe away. If Joe is smart he'll take it to the ground since he does have the wrestling edge but even then he'll have to watch for subs. I know he's a bjj black belt but not all black belts are created equal & Nate has shown a proficiency for being offensive on his back & finishing fights that way.

ANDRE WINNER over ROSS PEARSON 1.05u to win .5u
I really think Winner is better all around but Pearson is an aggressive tough dude with a solid chin so this should be a good fight but I look for Winner to be, well....the winner of course hno:

JAMES WILKS over DAMARQUES JOHNSON .5u to win 1.38u
I like Johnson's game but he had a fairly easy road to the finals & a really think Wilks decent stand up & goo ground game make him a live dog in this one. This number I feel is just too high. It reminds me of all the Nover hype from last year when everyone said he was a "lock". So essentially this is a numbers play.

DIEGO SANCHEZ & CHRIS LYTLE parlay 2.5u to win 2.03u
Both of these fights are guys that sre mirror images of each other with Diego & Lytle being the better, more talented versions so both of these should be pretty easy.


Good Luck everyone :toast: