Ufc 97
I didn't see any lines that make me want to go crazy but a couple solid opportunities:
Shogun over Liddell 1.5u to win 2.4u
Shogun has a much better overall game than Chuck and while he's looked bad in his last 2 fights there was good reason for that. Against Forrest he had just gotten married so he didn't hold a full training camp & also had a knee injury which he had surgery on after that fight. Against Coleman he had 16 months of ring rust & again was coming off 2 knee surgeries.
Liddell is at the end of his career & as a counter puncher his style is more affected by age as it's built on speed & power, both of which have diminished drastically. Look at his most recent fights & Chuck was KO'd by Rampage & Rashad while unable to finish either Jardine or Wanderlei (who seems to get KO'd a lot lately) so effectively Chuck needs to drag this out & win a decision which is highly unlikely. On the hype up show on Spike, Chuck said he's been working on his ground game & that people would be surprised in this fight. If Chuck takes this to the ground HE'LL be the one surprised as Shogun has a bjj black belt from one of the best in Nino Schembri.
Eliot Marshall over Vinnie Magalhaes 2.1u to win 2u
I was one of the guys suckered in to betting Vinnie against Bader & have learned my lesson. Vinnie's bjj was hyped up on the show & looked great against guys that were scared & fairly clueless on the ground but Bader has shown everyone the gameplan against Vinnie which is to use a couple accurate punches to get inside then drag him down for GnP. Eliot's bjj is good enough to not get caught in a submission while he finishes Vinnie with a GnP TKO.
MacDonald over Quarry 1.25u to win 1u
MacDonald has a huge advantage on the ground and has good wrestling so his gameplan should be to strike a little, get inside & drag Quarry down to work his top game eventually submitting him. The problem is MacDonald too often will ditch the gameplan & fight his opponents fight which wouldn't be smart against a one dimensional guy like Quarry which is why this is only a 1 unit fight for me
Wiman against Stout 1.36u to win 1.5u
Stout has a great kickboxing background but it hasn't translated to wins on the biggest stage. In the UFC, Stout has gone to a decision in 5 of 6 fights going 2-3 in those decisions with most being against other strikers. Wiman has a good chin and should be able to eat a couple to get inside and use his wrestling to take down Stout and work GnP while grinding out a unanimous decision win
GL everyone :toast:
I didn't see any lines that make me want to go crazy but a couple solid opportunities:
Shogun over Liddell 1.5u to win 2.4u
Shogun has a much better overall game than Chuck and while he's looked bad in his last 2 fights there was good reason for that. Against Forrest he had just gotten married so he didn't hold a full training camp & also had a knee injury which he had surgery on after that fight. Against Coleman he had 16 months of ring rust & again was coming off 2 knee surgeries.
Liddell is at the end of his career & as a counter puncher his style is more affected by age as it's built on speed & power, both of which have diminished drastically. Look at his most recent fights & Chuck was KO'd by Rampage & Rashad while unable to finish either Jardine or Wanderlei (who seems to get KO'd a lot lately) so effectively Chuck needs to drag this out & win a decision which is highly unlikely. On the hype up show on Spike, Chuck said he's been working on his ground game & that people would be surprised in this fight. If Chuck takes this to the ground HE'LL be the one surprised as Shogun has a bjj black belt from one of the best in Nino Schembri.
Eliot Marshall over Vinnie Magalhaes 2.1u to win 2u
I was one of the guys suckered in to betting Vinnie against Bader & have learned my lesson. Vinnie's bjj was hyped up on the show & looked great against guys that were scared & fairly clueless on the ground but Bader has shown everyone the gameplan against Vinnie which is to use a couple accurate punches to get inside then drag him down for GnP. Eliot's bjj is good enough to not get caught in a submission while he finishes Vinnie with a GnP TKO.
MacDonald over Quarry 1.25u to win 1u
MacDonald has a huge advantage on the ground and has good wrestling so his gameplan should be to strike a little, get inside & drag Quarry down to work his top game eventually submitting him. The problem is MacDonald too often will ditch the gameplan & fight his opponents fight which wouldn't be smart against a one dimensional guy like Quarry which is why this is only a 1 unit fight for me
Wiman against Stout 1.36u to win 1.5u
Stout has a great kickboxing background but it hasn't translated to wins on the biggest stage. In the UFC, Stout has gone to a decision in 5 of 6 fights going 2-3 in those decisions with most being against other strikers. Wiman has a good chin and should be able to eat a couple to get inside and use his wrestling to take down Stout and work GnP while grinding out a unanimous decision win
GL everyone :toast:
Sengoku 8
A couple of bets for the fight tonight/tomorrow am:
Stanislav Nedkov over Travis Wiuff 1u to win 1.65u
American fighters go to Japan for two reasons...1) they want to get known & are having trouble catching eyes in the US or 2) they are done in the US market & go to Japan to cash a paycheck. Wiuff is #2. He had a promising start to his career but he's never lived up to his potential.
Alexandre "Xande" Ribeiro over Keiichiro Yamamiya 3.75u to win 1.5u
Xande is world class on the ground & Yamamiya will have no answer for him
Hioki/Sandro parlay 2.87u to win 2.5u
Parlaying to cut down on the juice but both guys should win fairly easily once it hits the ground. As long as neither one tries to prove they are strikers this should cash without much of a problem.
:toast:
A couple of bets for the fight tonight/tomorrow am:
Stanislav Nedkov over Travis Wiuff 1u to win 1.65u
American fighters go to Japan for two reasons...1) they want to get known & are having trouble catching eyes in the US or 2) they are done in the US market & go to Japan to cash a paycheck. Wiuff is #2. He had a promising start to his career but he's never lived up to his potential.
Alexandre "Xande" Ribeiro over Keiichiro Yamamiya 3.75u to win 1.5u
Xande is world class on the ground & Yamamiya will have no answer for him
Hioki/Sandro parlay 2.87u to win 2.5u
Parlaying to cut down on the juice but both guys should win fairly easily once it hits the ground. As long as neither one tries to prove they are strikers this should cash without much of a problem.
:toast:
Ufc 98
Wish I would've capped these fights a while ago but my real job has kept me busy. Nothing huge but a couple that I like for UFC 98:
Lyoto Machida over Rashad Evans 4.2u to win 2u
Styles make fights & while I love Greg Jackson's ability to gameplan I don't see him having a good enough fighter to work with to beat Machida. Machida's style is to get in, score then get out which is why he hasn't even lost a round in the UFC. Rashad has shown a tendency to start slow then either grind out a decision or in his last 2 fights, save himself with a stoppage. Rashad's record is undefeated but there are some holes in it (split decision's against an under-sized Bisbing, washed up Tito plus mid-low tier guys Bonner & Hoger.) Everyone remembers the last 2 KO's but they were against the Iceman who keeps getting KO'd & Forrest who is a mediocre talent with a massive heart & will to win.
Combine Rashad's slow starts with Machida's in & out style and you'll get Machida ahead on the cards early with Rashad looking to land haymakers on a guy whose style is set up to avoid getting hit altogether. Add in Rashad's questionable cardio & that makes for a long 3rd, 4th & 5th rds for Rashad.
Addressing the wrestling issue...Rashad's takedowns are not as good as Tito's & Machida defended those the majority of the match & if it makes it to the ground, let's remember that Machida is a bjj black belt & while I don't plan on a submission from the bottom he should be able to tie him up to get it standing. I feel like there is so much more I could write but this is just a bad style match up for a guy who is still basically a fairly one dimensional fighter who has landed a couple of timely bombs so betting on Rashad is really just hoping he catches Machida & actually lands a bomb so we can see what his chin is made of.
Sherk/Nover parlay 2.1u to win 1.25u
Trying to help with the juice by parlaying but I think both of these guys outclass their opponents & roll to reasonably easy wins. My only concern is Sherk's willingness to stand & trade instead of using what got him to the top in the first place. If Sherk uses his wrestling for takedowns then he will control the smaller Edgar pretty easily & GnP his way to victory.
Nover is much more gifted than Bradley & as long as he keeps his whits about him in his first real UFC event he should be able to take thisas Bradley just appears to be a stepping stone to get Nover's name out there. BTW, best research stat EVER....Bradley has a 2003 loss by submission to **drumroll please** Melvin F'g Guillard
hno:
Dan Miller over Chael Sonnen 2u to win 1u
Two good wrestlers with Sonnen probably being a little better but the difference is that Miller has real good bjj to go along with his wrestling while Sonnen does not. MIller also seems to be good at reversing position on the ground so it will be interesting to see how often Sonnen ends up on his back.
If this stalemates on the ground and remains standing I think Miller's stand up is a little more precise than Sonnen's and can earn him points there. Probably a decision victory but there is a chance for Miller to get a sub.
Krzysztof Soszynski over Andre Gusmao .8u to win 1u
Soszynski is the bigger of the two fighters and although he has some stand up, I see him taking Gusmao down, using his bigger frame & wrestling ability to negate Gusmao's bjj black belt and getting a possible GnP or decision win.
Good Luck everyone :toast:
Wish I would've capped these fights a while ago but my real job has kept me busy. Nothing huge but a couple that I like for UFC 98:
Lyoto Machida over Rashad Evans 4.2u to win 2u
Styles make fights & while I love Greg Jackson's ability to gameplan I don't see him having a good enough fighter to work with to beat Machida. Machida's style is to get in, score then get out which is why he hasn't even lost a round in the UFC. Rashad has shown a tendency to start slow then either grind out a decision or in his last 2 fights, save himself with a stoppage. Rashad's record is undefeated but there are some holes in it (split decision's against an under-sized Bisbing, washed up Tito plus mid-low tier guys Bonner & Hoger.) Everyone remembers the last 2 KO's but they were against the Iceman who keeps getting KO'd & Forrest who is a mediocre talent with a massive heart & will to win.
Combine Rashad's slow starts with Machida's in & out style and you'll get Machida ahead on the cards early with Rashad looking to land haymakers on a guy whose style is set up to avoid getting hit altogether. Add in Rashad's questionable cardio & that makes for a long 3rd, 4th & 5th rds for Rashad.
Addressing the wrestling issue...Rashad's takedowns are not as good as Tito's & Machida defended those the majority of the match & if it makes it to the ground, let's remember that Machida is a bjj black belt & while I don't plan on a submission from the bottom he should be able to tie him up to get it standing. I feel like there is so much more I could write but this is just a bad style match up for a guy who is still basically a fairly one dimensional fighter who has landed a couple of timely bombs so betting on Rashad is really just hoping he catches Machida & actually lands a bomb so we can see what his chin is made of.
Sherk/Nover parlay 2.1u to win 1.25u
Trying to help with the juice by parlaying but I think both of these guys outclass their opponents & roll to reasonably easy wins. My only concern is Sherk's willingness to stand & trade instead of using what got him to the top in the first place. If Sherk uses his wrestling for takedowns then he will control the smaller Edgar pretty easily & GnP his way to victory.
Nover is much more gifted than Bradley & as long as he keeps his whits about him in his first real UFC event he should be able to take thisas Bradley just appears to be a stepping stone to get Nover's name out there. BTW, best research stat EVER....Bradley has a 2003 loss by submission to **drumroll please** Melvin F'g Guillard
hno:Dan Miller over Chael Sonnen 2u to win 1u
Two good wrestlers with Sonnen probably being a little better but the difference is that Miller has real good bjj to go along with his wrestling while Sonnen does not. MIller also seems to be good at reversing position on the ground so it will be interesting to see how often Sonnen ends up on his back.
If this stalemates on the ground and remains standing I think Miller's stand up is a little more precise than Sonnen's and can earn him points there. Probably a decision victory but there is a chance for Miller to get a sub.
Krzysztof Soszynski over Andre Gusmao .8u to win 1u
Soszynski is the bigger of the two fighters and although he has some stand up, I see him taking Gusmao down, using his bigger frame & wrestling ability to negate Gusmao's bjj black belt and getting a possible GnP or decision win.
Good Luck everyone :toast:
One more...
Matt Hughes over Matt Serra 3.9u to win 1.5u
Matt Hughes is bigger & stronger so he'll use his wrestling to take Serra down so he can GnP him to death. Serra's stand up is overrated due to a KO of GSP at a time that GSP freely admits he didn't focus or train as much because he was living the rock star life. Serra's bjj is overrated as he has 1 sub win in the UFC back in '02. He's a mediocre fighter & GSP laid out the game plan to beat him with wrestling which is what Hughes will do.
Matt Hughes over Matt Serra 3.9u to win 1.5u
Matt Hughes is bigger & stronger so he'll use his wrestling to take Serra down so he can GnP him to death. Serra's stand up is overrated due to a KO of GSP at a time that GSP freely admits he didn't focus or train as much because he was living the rock star life. Serra's bjj is overrated as he has 1 sub win in the UFC back in '02. He's a mediocre fighter & GSP laid out the game plan to beat him with wrestling which is what Hughes will do.
Updated record
Well that sucked but Hughes & Machida pulled out a slightly winning night for me. Obv I overestimated Miller's wrestling or underestimated Sonnen's. Screw Sherk for being stupid...he did exactly what I was afraid of & tried to stand all night. In hindsight I should've put more on Krzysztof which I was going to do but changed my mind.
UFC 98 3-2 +.4u
2009 record 41-19 +41.01 units
Well that sucked but Hughes & Machida pulled out a slightly winning night for me. Obv I overestimated Miller's wrestling or underestimated Sonnen's. Screw Sherk for being stupid...he did exactly what I was afraid of & tried to stand all night. In hindsight I should've put more on Krzysztof which I was going to do but changed my mind.
UFC 98 3-2 +.4u
2009 record 41-19 +41.01 units
