Ufn 17
This may be my only bet depending on how much time I have to look through the rest of the card.
Kurt Pellegrino - 6.3u to win 3u
I really think this line should be -300 or more but I think the memory of the quick, brutal KO of Manny has people laying money on Emerson. Outside of that "lucky punch" Emerson has gone to a decision in 3 of his last 4 wins dating back to 2006. With that said he's facing a guy who is an elite level grappler who's competed in Grapplers Quest & been invited to Abu Dhabi. Although Kurt's record in the UFC is only 4-3 he's always fought great grapplers including losing a decision to Joe Stevenson & beating Nate Diaz until he made a costly mistake & got subbed. Getting subbed is not a concern for Kurt in this fight as Emerson hasn't shown much on the ground & in fact he lost on TUF by sub to Nate Diaz & was getting handled by Gray Maynard at UFN 5 before the crazy no contest. Kurt's wrestling & bjj will take him to the whether it's by sub or decision
This may be my only bet depending on how much time I have to look through the rest of the card.
Kurt Pellegrino - 6.3u to win 3u
I really think this line should be -300 or more but I think the memory of the quick, brutal KO of Manny has people laying money on Emerson. Outside of that "lucky punch" Emerson has gone to a decision in 3 of his last 4 wins dating back to 2006. With that said he's facing a guy who is an elite level grappler who's competed in Grapplers Quest & been invited to Abu Dhabi. Although Kurt's record in the UFC is only 4-3 he's always fought great grapplers including losing a decision to Joe Stevenson & beating Nate Diaz until he made a costly mistake & got subbed. Getting subbed is not a concern for Kurt in this fight as Emerson hasn't shown much on the ground & in fact he lost on TUF by sub to Nate Diaz & was getting handled by Gray Maynard at UFN 5 before the crazy no contest. Kurt's wrestling & bjj will take him to the whether it's by sub or decision
Ufc 95
This could be a bankroll killer but this is as close to a lock as I can find:
Demian Maia - 5.5u to win 2.3 (bodog) & 7.4u to win 2.7u (BookMaker)
This number should skyrocket since Sonnen is a wrestler who has 5 of his 9 losses by submission and Maia is far and away the best bjj guy that he will face. Not all bjj guys translate their bjj to mma but Maia has 7 of his 9 wins by sub vs. guys that are better on the ground than Sonnen. Sonnen was subbed (controversially) by Filho and in the rematch against an overweight, dis-interested Filho he still put himself in positions to get caught. Filho is very good on the ground by Maia is better so he may take some gnp but will get a sub at some point.
This could be a bankroll killer but this is as close to a lock as I can find:
Demian Maia - 5.5u to win 2.3 (bodog) & 7.4u to win 2.7u (BookMaker)
This number should skyrocket since Sonnen is a wrestler who has 5 of his 9 losses by submission and Maia is far and away the best bjj guy that he will face. Not all bjj guys translate their bjj to mma but Maia has 7 of his 9 wins by sub vs. guys that are better on the ground than Sonnen. Sonnen was subbed (controversially) by Filho and in the rematch against an overweight, dis-interested Filho he still put himself in positions to get caught. Filho is very good on the ground by Maia is better so he may take some gnp but will get a sub at some point.
UFC 95 again
Another huge line value IMO...
Nate Marquardt - 6.45u to win 3u
Again Nate gets no love and is undervalued as the line gets released which is fine by me. This guy is one of the most well rounded, championship caliber guys in the division & would probably have the belt if not for that Anderson Silva dude who is pretty good. Nate is 6-2 in the UFC with an asterisk since one loss came in his fight against Leites where he utterly dominated the fight and was controversially docked TWO points & still lost by a SPLIT decision...the other loss was to Da Spider.
Gouveia is a decent fighter but not on the level of Nate and he has always struggled with his cardio and making weight, both at 205 and now at 185. Gouveia missed weight in his last fight against Jason MacDonald but did have a good performance although MacDonald isn't the same fighter lately as he's been very up & down (mainly down). His other notable wins are against Jason Lambert, Carmelo Marrero, Seth Petruzelli not really top flight guys.
Nate opened low against Kampmann in his last fight & then the line actually went down before skyrocketing close to fight and I expect this line to do the same (skyrocket that is) so get it while you can. Remember that he destroyed Kampmann who I believe is a better fighter than Gouveia.
Another huge line value IMO...
Nate Marquardt - 6.45u to win 3u
Again Nate gets no love and is undervalued as the line gets released which is fine by me. This guy is one of the most well rounded, championship caliber guys in the division & would probably have the belt if not for that Anderson Silva dude who is pretty good. Nate is 6-2 in the UFC with an asterisk since one loss came in his fight against Leites where he utterly dominated the fight and was controversially docked TWO points & still lost by a SPLIT decision...the other loss was to Da Spider.
Gouveia is a decent fighter but not on the level of Nate and he has always struggled with his cardio and making weight, both at 205 and now at 185. Gouveia missed weight in his last fight against Jason MacDonald but did have a good performance although MacDonald isn't the same fighter lately as he's been very up & down (mainly down). His other notable wins are against Jason Lambert, Carmelo Marrero, Seth Petruzelli not really top flight guys.
Nate opened low against Kampmann in his last fight & then the line actually went down before skyrocketing close to fight and I expect this line to do the same (skyrocket that is) so get it while you can. Remember that he destroyed Kampmann who I believe is a better fighter than Gouveia.
Thoughts on UFC 95:
- Much better card in terms of stoppages instead of decisions, very exciting
- Thiago did a great job adjusting. He watched Kos lean in on the jab & drop his head everytime then blasted him. Kos is too inconsistant; great showings followed by lackluster ones or major mistakes.
- Maia...WOW! Dude is so slick, judo trip into a mount rolling into the triangle; just beautiful
- Marquardt is a BEAST...he just looks so big in there. He worked a beautiful game plan staying away from Gouveia's strengths knowing he would gas. He actually looked gassed at the beginning of the 2nd rd which is sad.
- Diego looks weird at 155, really flat. He moved well & also had a good game plan so this might be the return of Diego & hopefully he can be more consistent this time around
- Much better card in terms of stoppages instead of decisions, very exciting
- Thiago did a great job adjusting. He watched Kos lean in on the jab & drop his head everytime then blasted him. Kos is too inconsistant; great showings followed by lackluster ones or major mistakes.
- Maia...WOW! Dude is so slick, judo trip into a mount rolling into the triangle; just beautiful
- Marquardt is a BEAST...he just looks so big in there. He worked a beautiful game plan staying away from Gouveia's strengths knowing he would gas. He actually looked gassed at the beginning of the 2nd rd which is sad.
- Diego looks weird at 155, really flat. He moved well & also had a good game plan so this might be the return of Diego & hopefully he can be more consistent this time around
Wec 39
Not a ton of confidence but more along the lines of action bets.
The best bet i think is Johnny Hendricks but the line is set pretty close.
Here's what i've got:
Marcos Galvao .8u to win 1u
Galvao has elite bjj but he needs to finally show it, I think he does that tonight & finally wins by submission
Johnny Hendricks 4.6u to win 1.5u
Elite wrestling will lead to Hendricks on top controlling the fight and winning by GnP or unanimous decision.
Razor Rob McCullough 1.5u to win 1u
Razor Rob has the length & muay thai background to keep the shorter Hicks at a distance Hicks has shown a propensity to stand & bang which will be his downfall if that's what he chooses to do tonight.
Mike Budnik 1.36u to win 1.5u
I think the wrong guy is favored here although this should be a close fight. I think there's a lack of respect for Budnik given his skateboarding background but he has shown the ability to finish fights w/his bjj.
Mike Brown 1.85 to win 1u
Brown's win over Faber was a bit fluky so throw that out but I believe Brown is more well rounded where as Garcia really just wants to stand & bang. Brown should be smart enough to take it to the ground & control Garcia w/his wrestling making sure he avoids the big bombs while shooting.
Not a ton of confidence but more along the lines of action bets.
The best bet i think is Johnny Hendricks but the line is set pretty close.
Here's what i've got:
Marcos Galvao .8u to win 1u
Galvao has elite bjj but he needs to finally show it, I think he does that tonight & finally wins by submission
Johnny Hendricks 4.6u to win 1.5u
Elite wrestling will lead to Hendricks on top controlling the fight and winning by GnP or unanimous decision.
Razor Rob McCullough 1.5u to win 1u
Razor Rob has the length & muay thai background to keep the shorter Hicks at a distance Hicks has shown a propensity to stand & bang which will be his downfall if that's what he chooses to do tonight.
Mike Budnik 1.36u to win 1.5u
I think the wrong guy is favored here although this should be a close fight. I think there's a lack of respect for Budnik given his skateboarding background but he has shown the ability to finish fights w/his bjj.
Mike Brown 1.85 to win 1u
Brown's win over Faber was a bit fluky so throw that out but I believe Brown is more well rounded where as Garcia really just wants to stand & bang. Brown should be smart enough to take it to the ground & control Garcia w/his wrestling making sure he avoids the big bombs while shooting.
well Budnik lost a close decision so a bad way to start. I'm adding another unit to Razor Rob & adding a bet on Bart.
Razor Rob 1.4u to win 1u
BART PALASZEWSKI 2.8u to win 1u
This fight is allabout experience...Bartimus has it & Lamas does not. Add in that Lamas took the fight on short notice & this is just too much to overcome in your 1st big fight
Razor Rob 1.4u to win 1u
BART PALASZEWSKI 2.8u to win 1u
This fight is allabout experience...Bartimus has it & Lamas does not. Add in that Lamas took the fight on short notice & this is just too much to overcome in your 1st big fight
Ufc 96
No time for big write ups
Pete Sell 2.3u to win 1.5u
In a stand up war I'll take the bigger, more technical striker who also has a ground advantage if it goes there
Gray Maynard 2.6u to win 1.5u
Gray will probably get booed again for a boring fight in which he has his hand raised again after a unanimous decision
Aaron Riley 4.3u to win 2
Shane Nelson doesn't deserve to be in the UFC...line should be higher
No time for big write ups
Pete Sell 2.3u to win 1.5u
In a stand up war I'll take the bigger, more technical striker who also has a ground advantage if it goes there
Gray Maynard 2.6u to win 1.5u
Gray will probably get booed again for a boring fight in which he has his hand raised again after a unanimous decision
Aaron Riley 4.3u to win 2
Shane Nelson doesn't deserve to be in the UFC...line should be higher
