Alright well i tried updating from the bar but that didn't work very well but after the early stoppage of Riley I threw a couple chase bets out there with mixed results:
Maynard/Sell parlay 1u to win 1.6u
Rampage 3.5u to win 1u
Rampage/Kawijiri/Aoki parlay 2.2u to win 1.5u
Totals for UFC 96 & DREAM 7 came to 5-3 -.6u
Could've been worse but the quick stoppage of Riley really hurt. This year I have been on the wrong side of some REALLY close decisions & some bad ref stoppages so the fact that I'm up a good amount is fairly surprising.
Updated overall record 22-14 +18.87
Maynard/Sell parlay 1u to win 1.6u
Rampage 3.5u to win 1u
Rampage/Kawijiri/Aoki parlay 2.2u to win 1.5u
Totals for UFC 96 & DREAM 7 came to 5-3 -.6u
Could've been worse but the quick stoppage of Riley really hurt. This year I have been on the wrong side of some REALLY close decisions & some bad ref stoppages so the fact that I'm up a good amount is fairly surprising.
Updated overall record 22-14 +18.87
Ufn 18
Cole Miller - 1.87u to win 1.5u
Junie has yet to beat anyone in his career other than a bunch of glasses on TUF. He's won 2 of 3 fights by submission which won't be the case against Miller who is only a purple belt in BJJ but it seems to translate very well to MMA. Miller also has a height advantage to keep Junie on the outside while standing up but I expect Miller to drag this to the ground & use his BJJ to control Junie on top or fire off lots of submissions from the bottom. I do worry about Miller possibly getting GnP'd if he doesn't use his length properly which is why I only have a couple units on it.
Cole Miller - 1.87u to win 1.5u
Junie has yet to beat anyone in his career other than a bunch of glasses on TUF. He's won 2 of 3 fights by submission which won't be the case against Miller who is only a purple belt in BJJ but it seems to translate very well to MMA. Miller also has a height advantage to keep Junie on the outside while standing up but I expect Miller to drag this to the ground & use his BJJ to control Junie on top or fire off lots of submissions from the bottom. I do worry about Miller possibly getting GnP'd if he doesn't use his length properly which is why I only have a couple units on it.
Sengoku 7
Lines were late getting out for this event so just 2 wagers on this one:
Hatsu Hioki over Chris Manuel 7.1u to win 2u (BookMaker)
This line was much higher at bodog and for good reason: Hioki is the favorite to win the whole tourney & while Manuel is undefeated he hasn't faced talent like Hioki's. Add in the fact that Hioki is also bigger & very good on the ground, which nullifies Manuel's strength and this should be a pretty easy W.
Nam Phan over Hideki Kadowaki 5.2u to win 2u (bodog)
Nam Phan is larger & better on his feet than his opponent and should be able to hang on the ground. Phan has never been submitted and has a very good top game with some brutal GnP which will negate Kadowaki's best chance at a victory which is by submission. Phan has also been in there with a better list of opponents in his career giving him an edge in the experience factor as well.
GL everyone :toast:
Lines were late getting out for this event so just 2 wagers on this one:
Hatsu Hioki over Chris Manuel 7.1u to win 2u (BookMaker)
This line was much higher at bodog and for good reason: Hioki is the favorite to win the whole tourney & while Manuel is undefeated he hasn't faced talent like Hioki's. Add in the fact that Hioki is also bigger & very good on the ground, which nullifies Manuel's strength and this should be a pretty easy W.
Nam Phan over Hideki Kadowaki 5.2u to win 2u (bodog)
Nam Phan is larger & better on his feet than his opponent and should be able to hang on the ground. Phan has never been submitted and has a very good top game with some brutal GnP which will negate Kadowaki's best chance at a victory which is by submission. Phan has also been in there with a better list of opponents in his career giving him an edge in the experience factor as well.
GL everyone :toast:
2-0
Well I think Manual would be good in a Bantamweight fight but Hioki too big & strong for him. Phan looked ok even though he kept running his face straight into the jab, good thing he has some power because he wasn't moving very much.
Sengoku 7 2-0 +4u
Updated overall record 24-14 +22.87
Well I think Manual would be good in a Bantamweight fight but Hioki too big & strong for him. Phan looked ok even though he kept running his face straight into the jab, good thing he has some power because he wasn't moving very much.
Sengoku 7 2-0 +4u
Updated overall record 24-14 +22.87
Ufn 18
Another one that I like but the line is getting uglier:
Ricardo Almeida 5.5u to win 2u
Matt Horwich is a very good submission fighter which is actually a negative for him in this fight. Horwich has 18 of his 22 wins by sub but mostly against guys that are stand up fighters who have trouble dealing with his crazy flexibility & constant sub attempts that he throws up from the bottom. When he fights another good ground fighter he struggles because he tries to use the same game plan of dragging the fight to the ground, getting on his back & firing off sub attempts. Guys like Dan Miller, Ryan McGivern, Jamal Patterson, Roan Carneiro don't get caught in these attempts & spend the entire fight on top of Horwich winning round after round and eventually a decision. Almeida's BJJ is on another level than Horwich's & I expect a unanimous decision if not a sub win by Almeida.
:toast:
Another one that I like but the line is getting uglier:
Ricardo Almeida 5.5u to win 2u
Matt Horwich is a very good submission fighter which is actually a negative for him in this fight. Horwich has 18 of his 22 wins by sub but mostly against guys that are stand up fighters who have trouble dealing with his crazy flexibility & constant sub attempts that he throws up from the bottom. When he fights another good ground fighter he struggles because he tries to use the same game plan of dragging the fight to the ground, getting on his back & firing off sub attempts. Guys like Dan Miller, Ryan McGivern, Jamal Patterson, Roan Carneiro don't get caught in these attempts & spend the entire fight on top of Horwich winning round after round and eventually a decision. Almeida's BJJ is on another level than Horwich's & I expect a unanimous decision if not a sub win by Almeida.
:toast:
Final card for UFN 18
Adding one more for tomorrow night:
Gleison Tibau 3.4u to win 2u
Neither guy made weight for this fight so it's going to be held at a catchweight of 158. Tibau is the bigger, stronger fighter as he used to fight at 170 & he's successfully made the cut to 155 several times. The guys that give Tibau trouble are strong wrestlers w/good top games which Stephens doesn't have. Tibau's size & ground game should allow him to take this to the ground often keeping Stephens off his feet & away from the big bombs he likes to throw. This looks like a repeat off last months Stephens/Lauzon fight with Jeremy on his back fighting off submissions maybe grinding out a decision loss if he doesn't get subbed
Here are the other picks for this card:
Ricardo Almeida 5.5u to win 2u
Matt Horwich is a very good submission fighter which is actually a negative for him in this fight. Horwich has 18 of his 22 wins by sub but mostly against guys that are stand up fighters who have trouble dealing with his crazy flexibility & constant sub attempts that he throws up from the bottom. When he fights another good ground fighter he struggles because he tries to use the same game plan of dragging the fight to the ground, getting on his back & firing off sub attempts. Guys like Dan Miller, Ryan McGivern, Jamal Patterson, Roan Carneiro don't get caught in these attempts & spend the entire fight on top of Horwich winning round after round and eventually a decision. Almeida's BJJ is on another level than Horwich's & I expect a unanimous decision if not a sub win by Almeida.
Cole Miller - 1.87u to win 1.5u
Junie has yet to beat anyone in his career other than a bunch of glasses on TUF. He's won 2 of 3 fights by submission which won't be the case against Miller who is only a purple belt in BJJ but it seems to translate very well to MMA. Miller also has a height advantage to keep Junie on the outside while standing up but I expect Miller to drag this to the ground & use his BJJ to control Junie on top or fire off lots of submissions from the bottom. I do worry about Miller possibly getting GnP'd if he doesn't use his length properly which is why I only have a couple units on it.
Adding one more for tomorrow night:
Gleison Tibau 3.4u to win 2u
Neither guy made weight for this fight so it's going to be held at a catchweight of 158. Tibau is the bigger, stronger fighter as he used to fight at 170 & he's successfully made the cut to 155 several times. The guys that give Tibau trouble are strong wrestlers w/good top games which Stephens doesn't have. Tibau's size & ground game should allow him to take this to the ground often keeping Stephens off his feet & away from the big bombs he likes to throw. This looks like a repeat off last months Stephens/Lauzon fight with Jeremy on his back fighting off submissions maybe grinding out a decision loss if he doesn't get subbed
Here are the other picks for this card:
Ricardo Almeida 5.5u to win 2u
Matt Horwich is a very good submission fighter which is actually a negative for him in this fight. Horwich has 18 of his 22 wins by sub but mostly against guys that are stand up fighters who have trouble dealing with his crazy flexibility & constant sub attempts that he throws up from the bottom. When he fights another good ground fighter he struggles because he tries to use the same game plan of dragging the fight to the ground, getting on his back & firing off sub attempts. Guys like Dan Miller, Ryan McGivern, Jamal Patterson, Roan Carneiro don't get caught in these attempts & spend the entire fight on top of Horwich winning round after round and eventually a decision. Almeida's BJJ is on another level than Horwich's & I expect a unanimous decision if not a sub win by Almeida.
Cole Miller - 1.87u to win 1.5u
Junie has yet to beat anyone in his career other than a bunch of glasses on TUF. He's won 2 of 3 fights by submission which won't be the case against Miller who is only a purple belt in BJJ but it seems to translate very well to MMA. Miller also has a height advantage to keep Junie on the outside while standing up but I expect Miller to drag this to the ground & use his BJJ to control Junie on top or fire off lots of submissions from the bottom. I do worry about Miller possibly getting GnP'd if he doesn't use his length properly which is why I only have a couple units on it.
GL on the picks, I'm taking Tibau as well. He would have made weight with the additional hour they are given cause he only would have had to lose half a pound, so I think his cut went alright. Stephens on the other hand weighed in at 158, meaning he probably had a rough cut, which won't help him on fight night.
Ok, after more review & following a guy I respect I've decided to add Kampmann 1.87u to win 1.5u
Simply put I feel Kampmann is better than Condit in all areas & Condit has built his reputation on dominating lesser quality opponents. Kampmann spent years at 185 so he's actually used to bigger opponents which is also an advantage.
Simply put I feel Kampmann is better than Condit in all areas & Condit has built his reputation on dominating lesser quality opponents. Kampmann spent years at 185 so he's actually used to bigger opponents which is also an advantage.
Dream 8
Looking to keep the hot streak going...
Not much time for write up's but here's who I've got:
Aoki over Sakurai 5u to win 2.5u
I'm mad I didn't hit it last night when I saw -175 but that's ok because I feel good even at -200. Since their last meeting Aoki has improved & Sakurai has been happy getting fed paychecks & merely decent opponents not really testing himself
Galvao over Alessio 1.75u to win 1.5u
Galvao is flat out one of the best no-gi jiu-jitsu practitioners in the world at any weight. He needs to get it to the ground & avoid the stand up game as much as possible but Galvao has trained with some of the best judokas in the world so look for him to bullrush Alessio, clinch then get him down & own him on the ground.
Nakahara over Oyama 3.6u to win 1.5u
Oyama is a losing fighter & even though he's fought some great ones in the past, it's been a while. On adequate talent he's gone 5-5 in his last 10 & 8 of his 11 losses are by TKO. Look for Nakahara to unleash his hands on Oyama getting a TKO in the first round
:toast:
Looking to keep the hot streak going...
Not much time for write up's but here's who I've got:
Aoki over Sakurai 5u to win 2.5u
I'm mad I didn't hit it last night when I saw -175 but that's ok because I feel good even at -200. Since their last meeting Aoki has improved & Sakurai has been happy getting fed paychecks & merely decent opponents not really testing himself
Galvao over Alessio 1.75u to win 1.5u
Galvao is flat out one of the best no-gi jiu-jitsu practitioners in the world at any weight. He needs to get it to the ground & avoid the stand up game as much as possible but Galvao has trained with some of the best judokas in the world so look for him to bullrush Alessio, clinch then get him down & own him on the ground.
Nakahara over Oyama 3.6u to win 1.5u
Oyama is a losing fighter & even though he's fought some great ones in the past, it's been a while. On adequate talent he's gone 5-5 in his last 10 & 8 of his 11 losses are by TKO. Look for Nakahara to unleash his hands on Oyama getting a TKO in the first round
:toast:
Wec 40
Lots of chalk available on this card which I'm not a fan of so just 2 that i like small:
Benavidez over Curran 1.15u to win 1u
Faber's protege is much more athletic than Curran though Curran has tons of experience. I feel Benavidez's athleticism & strong wrestling will be able to neutraliz Currans strength which is bjj & allow Benavidez to grind out a decision win
Tamura over Tapia 1u to win 1.3u
Tapia likes to brawl but Tamura is a little more technical & doesn't normally get sucked in to trading on the feet. Tamura looked good on the ground against Fabiano holding his own while on the bottom until finally succumbing to a sub. Tapia seems to fight kind of sloppy & I think Tamura can get the better of him standing & definitely on the ground pulling out the small upset victory
Lots of chalk available on this card which I'm not a fan of so just 2 that i like small:
Benavidez over Curran 1.15u to win 1u
Faber's protege is much more athletic than Curran though Curran has tons of experience. I feel Benavidez's athleticism & strong wrestling will be able to neutraliz Currans strength which is bjj & allow Benavidez to grind out a decision win
Tamura over Tapia 1u to win 1.3u
Tapia likes to brawl but Tamura is a little more technical & doesn't normally get sucked in to trading on the feet. Tamura looked good on the ground against Fabiano holding his own while on the bottom until finally succumbing to a sub. Tapia seems to fight kind of sloppy & I think Tamura can get the better of him standing & definitely on the ground pulling out the small upset victory
:toast:
