Trentmoney 2009 CFB

[trentmoney]

2* NC St pk

better QB, better coach, at home and just have to win...would put more on this play but i have 2* o7 wins nc st so a loss pretty much means at best a push on the future and a win pretty much means at worst a push so there's a little more on the line...
pitt secondary has had problems w/ good passing teams (rutgers, cincy last yr) and haven't played anybody yet that throws this yr...feel like nc st can expose them there and take them out of their comfort zone and force stull to have to win the game

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

2* purdue +7.5

bad defenses shouldn't be favored by more than a TD on the road...ND has given up over 4 ypc in each game and 68 the last 2 weeks to b10 teams...bigger game for purdue as ND just got thru rivalry game w/ mich and "monkey off the back" game vs mich st, beating them for the first time in a while...both teams will move the ball, pts will be scored, and the back door should also be open as well

good luck

 

[GoSooners]

Notre Dame's defense just hasn't panned out this year giving up 5 ypc rushing against three mediocre or worse offenses. It looks like it's going to be more of the same old same old where they might possibly be able to cover and outscore teams as small home favorites or dogs, but will be bad plays as road favorites.

 

[Hemlock21]

2* purdue +7.5

bad defenses shouldn't be favored by more than a TD on the road...ND has given up over 4 ypc in each game and 68 the last 2 weeks to b10 teams...bigger game for purdue as ND just got thru rivalry game w/ mich and "monkey off the back" game vs mich st, beating them for the first time in a while...both teams will move the ball, pts will be scored, and the back door should also be open as well

good luck

Alot of people on this Purdue pk. I'm leaning towards the over in this game. I'm curious as to what it might be...GL though

 

[trentmoney]

2* miami -2.5

a lot to talk about here...

first off, here is the situation i'm in...i wanted to take UM +700 to win ACC but it then dropped to +450.

anyone who has read my posts the last 2 years knows how over-rated i think vtech is...i faded them successfully a few times last yr. i was going to take them u9 wins even before darren evans got injured. but as i looked at the schedule i circled this game as it essentially involved both my potential futures:

if um were to win acc they would have to win this game
if vtech were to go under 9 wins they would have to lose this game

so i thought to myself "since um will be an underdog in blacksburg, why not just pass on the two future plays, and just take them big in that game as i feel they will win anyway". at the time it seemed like sound logic, especially w/ um getting 6 pts @ FSU, who was ranked lower than v tech to start the season (i also took um w/ the pts vs FSU)...well, sound logic or not, it backfired as vtech has looked ordinary (no surprise there) and um has looked great...but my initial thoughts have actually been confirmed-i felt um would win this game before the season started, and nothing has happened to change my mind!!!

i've stated this before but if tj yates doesn't injure his ankle late in the 3rd qtr up 17-3 in chapel hill last season v tech finishes 7-5 and plays in the papa johns bowl...where would they be ranked coming into the season under those circumstances..?? it wouldn't seem so odd that um is ranked ahead of vtech then or that they're favored...

this also kind of reminds me of last yr w/ penn st in the b10...i was going to play them +500 to win the conference but w/ the game @ ohio st i figured i would just play them as dogs...again, by the time that game was played they were 3 pt favs!!! i layed off, and they covered, as they were the better team.

i could break down the fall of vt's defense from 2 yrs ago, when hall and adibi were LBs and harris and flowers were cbs, and i could break down their offense as well when royal, morgan, and clowney were wrs and duane brown was manning the o-line...but let's just keep it simple: the talent level at vt has gone down significantly since they were a top-level team...

i have to laugh when i hear people say that UM has beaten "two middle of the road acc teams..." are you kidding me..?? think about this for a second...UM is the only team in the ncaa to have beaten two ranked teams...before the season people were saying that um had the toughest 4 game schedule to open the season, and now they're trying to downplay their wins..?? they didn't beat FCS opponents...they didn't beat non-bcs teams...they didn't beat low-level bcs teams (think florida's schedule to fit this comparison). they beat two teams that will finish with winning records and play in bowl games.

but you can spin things anyway you like to fit your argument...

finally, while i know i've lost a ton of "line value" from what would have been the spread a few weeks ago, i'm still playing miami, i'm just lowering it from what would have been a 6*-8* play to a 2* play

good luck

 

[Conan]

how bout them bears trent?

80-1

Yiiiihaaaa!!

sorry for the interruption but i'm already starting to sweat and they haven't even beaten oregon yet. thus far they look like they deserve a berth in the NC... probably playing better football than anyone in the top 10 (up to now)

(and collecting 8 dimes off a $100 throw away bet would be soooo sick!)
knock on wood. i don't want to jinx that wager.
i'd be very happy with just an opportunity to hedge.

now i'm done
BOL

 

[trentmoney]

how bout them bears trent?

80-1

Yiiiihaaaa!!

sorry for the interruption but i'm already starting to sweat and they haven't even beaten oregon yet. thus far they look like they deserve a berth in the NC... probably playing better football than anyone in the top 10 (up to now)

(and collecting 8 dimes off a $100 throw away bet would be soooo sick!)
knock on wood. i don't want to jinx that wager.
i'd be very happy with just an opportunity to hedge.

now i'm done
BOL

Conan,

re-read the "Cal Bears NC Title Holder's Club" thread...
the first meeting is to be held AFTER this week's game, not before...!!

You're ejaculating prematurely...

talk to you next week
:toast:

 

[trentmoney]

2* purdue +7.5

bad defenses shouldn't be favored by more than a TD on the road...ND has given up over 4 ypc in each game and 68 the last 2 weeks to b10 teams...bigger game for purdue as ND just got thru rivalry game w/ mich and "monkey off the back" game vs mich st, beating them for the first time in a while...both teams will move the ball, pts will be scored, and the back door should also be open as well

good luck

2* ND -7

off this game but can still "side" it with purdue +7.5

on paper this looks like a good situation, but i never was a "situational" handicapper...and i do love fading bad defenses on the road...but i just finished watching tape of purdue's last 2 games and they are pretty bad...not only that but qb elliot sucks!!! they can't stretch the field vertically, which will seriously hamper your running game...bolden got off vs toledo but has been contained the last 2 games...purdue was down 28-7 late 3rd qtr vs NIUand didn't have a legitimate offensive td drive until 5 minutes left in the game (punt return td and 58 yd qb scramble on a freak play for 2nd td)...they actually gave up over 450 yds at home to NIU!!

bad defense, bad qb, this is not a team i want my money on...

 

[trentmoney]

2* stanford -7

was hoping to get 6.5 but now that 7.5 is popping up places i'm locking in now

fading a bad defense on the road against a top running team is something i always look for

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

1* Cal -5.5

"As square as I wanna be..."

Huge advantage in the trenches for Cal, who also boasts a balanced offensive attack compared to the one-dimensional attack of oregon...new o-line hasn't gotten run game on track yet for ducks, now face their toughest d-line/front 7 yet...two non-offensive scores vs purdue and one vs utah so offense has scored only 24 each of last two game, and its not like they were facing the "steel curtain" either...not getting a good vibe from duck-land, too much "new-ness" on the team on both sides of the ball

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

2* ASU/UGA u 53

Same total as last week for uga vs arky who has great offense and crappy defense, now play a team w/ the opposite but the total is the same due to high scoring affair last week...vs a similar type team 2 weeks ago total was around 40...!! last yr total was 51 and that was w/ stafford, moreno, and 3yr starter @ qb for ASU...only totals higher than this for uga last 2 seasons were c mich (mac team always high scoring games), UF (great offense), and Ok st week 1 (another high scoring team)...feel like this is a big over-reaction to last two weeks of action for uga

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

Week 4: 3-3 + 1.6*
YTD: 9-8 -5.45*

3* Tenness -1.5

Love the physical nature that Tennessee plays with and the defense is playing at a top level...Auburn first game on the road after easy 4 game stretch at home to start the season...Both run the ball, Tennessee more of a power run game than the spread of Auburn...Better Defense at home for me

good luck

 

[fadethepublic1]

Week 4: 3-3 + 1.6*
YTD: 9-8 -5.45*

3* Tenness -1.5

Love the physical nature that Tennessee plays with and the defense is playing at a top level...Auburn first game on the road after easy 4 game stretch at home to start the season...Both run the ball, Tennessee more of a power run game than the spread of Auburn...Better Defense at home for me

good luck

I totally agree. Better defense at home will win by a FG at the least. Monte Kiffin is the sizzle my friend. Aloha from Hawaii.

 

[trentmoney]

3* minn -2.5

for the first time in as long as i can remember minny actually has the better defense in this matchup...huge rivalry game and a tough spot for a 1st yr qb making his first road start...minny should have won last yr in madison and are better this yr as wisky is also worse imo...minny has had a very competitive schedule to start the season while wisky has fattened up on fcs and non-bcs at home...i'll take the better defense, better and more experienced qb and HFA in this one

good luck

 

[namathfan]

Agree with Minn as the right side but Wisky's schedule hasn't really been that bad (excluding Wofford).

N IL beat Purdue at Purdue

Fresno has played some top opposition and held their own.

Mich St should've beat ND and now finds themselves at a pk 'em vs Mich

gl

 

[trentmoney]

Agree with Minn as the right side but Wisky's schedule hasn't really been that bad (excluding Wofford).

N IL beat Purdue at Purdue

Fresno has played some top opposition and held their own.

Mich St should've beat ND and now finds themselves at a pk 'em vs Mich

gl

my point is this:
if you look at every team that's played 4 games most have played on the road already.
if you look at every team that's played 4 games most have played at least 2 bcs teams
if you look at every team that's played 4 games not everyone has played an FCS team.

wisky hasn't left home, has only played one bcs team, and has played an FCS team...compared to every other team in the ncaa, that's a pretty soft schedule imo

 

[namathfan]

Just checked Sagarin ratings fwiw...

Teams that have played easier schedules than Wisc...

FL...TEX..MO..AUB..OK ST..MICH..KAN..BC..MISS

Minnesota has definitely played a harder schedule, ranked 40th in toughness...while Wisky was at 86th

Best of luck...dialogue is always a good thing.

 

[Club]

Week 4: 3-3 + 1.6*
YTD: 9-8 -5.45*

3* Tenness -1.5

Love the physical nature that Tennessee plays with and the defense is playing at a top level...Auburn first game on the road after easy 4 game stretch at home to start the season...Both run the ball, Tennessee more of a power run game than the spread of Auburn...Better Defense at home for me

good luck

Really like this. I like the angle of a team playing its first road game in a very tough stadium after playing such an easy schedule = Value. Last week's Ohio game means nothing sandwiched between between UF and Auburn. Tenn is better than their prior 4 games would suggest.

 

[Club]

I figure you for taking Cal and/or Miami this week. I guess we'll see.

 

[trentmoney]

3* mich st -2

Freshman QB making first road start in opponent's biggest game of the year...not only rivalry game but a desperate game for msu as well!!! both teams have played closed games, and one play or another could have msu 3-1 and mich 2-2...neither defense has played well, so i'll fade the one on the road

good luck