3* miami +7
this is the type of line that stirs my consciousness...
First off, UM was -3 @ VTech, which means around -7 neutral
OK is -7 @ UM, which means around -10 neutral
So OK would be around -17 neutral vs VTech, -14 @ VT, and around -21 in Norman...
NONSENSE..!!!
Now if UM beats VT, which they would arguably 40% of the time (VT -150 ML on avg if they played that game 100x sounds about right, especially since UM was favored ML last week!!), they would be #4 in the country right now, and they would be around -3 for this game...there's no way the #4 team in the country would be undefeated and an underdog to #8 for a home night game...so the results of ONE game, played in one of the toughest venues in CFB, in terrible weather conditions, makes for a 10 pt swing in the spread..?? It doesn't in my book...
And since we're talking about rankings, i think it's important to realize that these are meaningless in determining a team's worth any time before mid-season...think about what we've learned in the past week:
Ole Miss had a great 2008. They beat a bad CUSA team and an FCS team in 2009.
in 2009 S Car beat a bcs team @ NC St and lost on the final play @ bcs UGA.
Yet because of 2008 Miss was the ranked team even though S Car had the better "resume" in 2009. Thus, Miss was favored @ S Car on a thrs night game, when based solely on 2009 events, S Car probably should have been favored...we know how that played out.
So let's look at this matchup based solely on 2009 events:
Miami has played 3 bcs teams, have played more road games than home games, and their only loss was @ VT, who's beaten 2 bcs teams (Neb and UM) and whose only loss was to bcs Alabama...Of UM's 2 wins, one was against GTech, who has beaten 2 bcs teams (Clemson and UNC) and the other was opening night @ FSU, who's resume includes a win in absolutely dominating fashion @ BYU
You can argue all you want, but some things are undeniable. One is that UM, along with UGA, are the only teams in NCAA who have played all of their games vs BCS teams. They are also the ONLY bcs team to have played more road games than home games...so while i don't know how this team will end up this season, imo at this point in the season they are one of the only PROVEN teams in the country, and are worthy of being considered a top-level team. In fact, they should probably be ranked ahead of several teams in front of them based on this season's results (how is Ole Miss still ranked ahead of them..??)
Now look at Oklahoma. But it's very important to look at THIS OU team, and try not to confuse them with 2008 OU. They've lost to BYU, who has lost to their only other bcs opponent (FSU), and have beaten an FCS team and a non-bcs team (Tulsa) who was playing in their THIRD STRAIGHT road game..!! Based on this resume, i don't even know if they deserve to be ranked, let alone in the top ten!! Remember, Loadholt is starting @ RT for the Vikings this season, not the Sooners...Gresham is rehabbing for the draft, and not running seam routes through miami's secondary...Unless there was a typo on their depth chart, OU is starting from center out right, 2 FR and a SO on their o-line..!! And i haven't even mentioned Bradford!!! If someone could tell me, based on 2009 events, what OU has done to be ranked in the top ten i would greatly appreciate it...
A few other points:
-At the beginning of the year the big ?? were about OU O-line...Now they play their first "real" road game against the best D-line they've faced this season, but all i hear is how Miami will be facing their toughest defense yet...
-The QB situation is either a backup playing in the biggest game of his life or an injured player making a comeback and playing in only his second game since Jan 8...Will he even make it through 4 qtrs in the heat of south Fla and facing constant pressure??
-I think that the 2008 OU team would absolutely crush the 2009 team that will line up sat night by somewhere near 21 pts...i know that is totally hypothetical, but my point is simply that this team is a far cry from last yrs, yet this spread seems based mainly on the results from 2008
Now i'm not saying that OU won't be a good team this year...that's not the point. The point is that to be favored by a TD on the road for a night game against a team that has PROVEN to be a quality team, you need more than your reputation from last year...or else you're just like Ole Miss from last week, and even they were only 4 pt favs...
good luck
