Trentmoney 2009 CFB

[trentmoney]

1* Az St u48

i know most places have it @ 47.5, which i would still play, but my book posted 48...i would wait and see if it reaches 48 since 47 and 46 aren't strong numbers anyway so there's more reward than risk in waiting imo

the two worst offenses in the conference (and 2 of the worst in the ncaa) and yet we're right around the same number as stan/or st and actually higher than oregon/ucla...most people look at defense first with unders (and az st has an excellent one) but i find that sometimes great defense sets up scores anyway...i like to find two bad offenses, which we have here

wsu has scored 13, 6, and 6 vs bcs teams
az st has scored 17 twice vs bcs teams, which includes a defensive score

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

1* Northwestern/Mia OH u54

because they haven't made many big plays on offense

1* FSU/G Tech o55

because they have...

good luck

 

[pezgordo]

Good luck this weekend trent

 

[trentmoney]

Week 6: 5-2 +3.6*
YTD: 18-14 -4.95* (forget to update last YTD W/L record last week)

3* Wisconsin -2.5
2* Penn St -16.5

Wisconsin is always a threat in the run game and faces an Iowa defense that has been surprisingly succeptible in defending the run...Iowa QB Stanzi has played poorly on the road both last year and this year (29-60, 4/4 in 2 road games this yr), and while Iowa has often times been able to overcome offensive liabilities with a positive TO margin (haven't lost the TO margin since week 1 vs N Iowa), predominantly-run based offenses are usually harder to turn over...Wisky QB Tolzien has been a pleasant surprise, completing over 60% in every game this year

Penn St is part gut instinct, part match up as minny has been fortunate the last two weeks in getting 4 TDs as a direct result of defense/special teams and has benefitted greatly by TO's setting up TDs in games vs Syracuse, Air Force, and Northwestern as well...Defense has been on the field an inordinate amount of plays the last 2 weeks, now go on the road vs physical penn st team...problems and injuries on Minny O-line and now must deal w/ top-level defensive front 7...easy road so far (Cuse, NW) now gets a lot tougher for a one-dimensional offense and under-sized defense

Penn St has kind of been sleep-walking this season and i have a feeling they wake up this week vs conference foe in front of home crowd...Penn St is as big a "public" team as there is, and when the public is on the other side it's usually the time to side with the books...would be a bigger play but don't normally like to lay this type of number

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

3* purdue +14

Purdue has actually outgained their opponents in 4 of 6 games this year (laid an egg vs NIU and outgained by only 20 yds vs Notre Dame) so they haven't been as over matched as it might seem (1-5 record) but mistakes and turnovers have done them in...Ohio St offense can be sporadic and conservative as well...compared to recent spreads and similar matchups (last yr vs purdue as well as penn st/minny) this line should probably be around 10 imo...

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

2* mich st/northwestern u52.5

neither offense has many dynamic or dominant players at skill positions or o-line for that matter...defensive-minded coaches as well, dantonio and msu one of few teams left that uses a fullback and 2 TE's..!!! both teams defenses are better than their offenses imo, neither teams are strong at running the ball, don't think qbs will be able to register lots of points...mich st will run the ball as much as they can if they get ahead which i expect to happen

good luck

 

[fadethepublic1]

3* purdue +14

Purdue has actually outgained their opponents in 4 of 6 games this year (laid an egg vs NIU and outgained by only 20 yds vs Notre Dame) so they haven't been as over matched as it might seem (1-5 record) but mistakes and turnovers have done them in...Ohio St offense can be sporadic and conservative as well...compared to recent spreads and similar matchups (last yr vs purdue as well as penn st/minny) this line should probably be around 10 imo...

good luck

<><>Niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice.<><>

 

[trentmoney]

i know yer into totals...thought u might wanna take a look into the over in the uw-zona and beaver-tree games and the under in the sj.st.-idaho game...3 that stuck out to me this weekend...

Good looking out...i try to limit my plays but i appreciate the recommendations...

glad you hit!
:toast:

 

[Morrison18]

gl tonight trent.

 

[trentmoney]

1* Tulsa +9

unlike texas, florida, alabama, i don't think boise can just go on the road and roll out of bed and name their score on any given night, let alone a national tv night game that will make their opponent's season

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

3* colorado +10

ahh, the DD home conference dog...

kansas defense not too good, having given up 28 to s miss and 36 to iowa st last two games, both at home...running game has suffered w/ sharp out as well...only games vs BCS teams have been home to duke and iowa st, both bottom feeders...haven't been on the road since week 2 @ utep, now have to go to boulder for sat night game vs a team that might find new life w/ qb change...i expect colorado to have success running the ball w/ stewart, scott and sumler...kansas has not covered as big fav vs s miss and iowa st, and defense was the reason, and i don't see why that should change now going on the road...again, teams like florida, alabama, texas can go on the road and roll out of bed and name the score...kansas is not at that level

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

1* Notre Dame +10

not much to say about this high-profile game that hasn't already been said except that in 2005 w/ Bush, Leinart, and one of the all-time great college teams the line was -12

2009 ND is probably not as good as 2005
2009 USC is definitely not as good as 2005...

good luck

 

[MSUSpartans]

1* Notre Dame +10

not much to say about this high-profile game that hasn't already been said except that in 2005 w/ Bush, Leinart, and one of the all-time great college teams the line was -12

2009 ND is probably not as good as 2005
2009 USC is definitely not as good as 2005...

good luck

Sure neither team is as good as their 05 counterparts, but that doesnt mean USC isnt as good as the last 2 years in which they beat ND by 20+ in each. So far, ND hasnt done anything to prove to me they are improveved. They've played a weak schedule, and have been just skating by. Line may be a little high, but I like USC to win, now I would have to count on ND keeping it close, and I just dont have that much confidence, especially when you have a coach like Ole charlie and his terrible game management. I'm staying away.

Love the over/under plays, keep those coming!

 

[trentmoney]

1* gtech/vtech u55

once this got to 55 i had to take it...total is higher than gtech game @ miami and the same as @ fsu, both teams w/ better offenses and more pass oriented than vtech, and not as good defenses as the hokies...both teams will run the ball, and expect the clock to keep ticking...this is the highest total of the year for vtech, and while their offense has improved over the last few weeks, they're still a "grind it out" team at heart...

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

2* Kansas St +5.5 -105
1* ASU -6.5

Found out more about txam in their last 2 games than their first 3...2-7 in b12 last 2 years and now favored on the road..?? Not in my book...

ASU would have been a bigger play at -3/-4 earlier in the week...more than i wanted to lay but am still playing them, just for less

good luck

 

[Morrison18]

gl tonight man

 

[trentmoney]

Week 7: 9-1 +12.7*
YTD: 27-15 +7.75*

3* Arkansas +6.5

Arkansas reminds me of ole miss from last year, and i feel these two teams are going in opposite directions...actually feel like arkansas is the better team, and on a neutral field i would take the hogs @ pk over the rebels...arkansas more battle-tested, feel their playing better ball right now, and feel they possess the dominant unit in this game so getting almost a TD looks good to me...feel like this might be a dr bob play so i'm taking it now

good luck

 

[sheetplayer]

Hey..where is that tool 55%? Keep it goin brother

 

[MSUSpartans]

Awesome week man. You are the master of totals!

 

[trentmoney]

sheetplayer- good lookin out...but seriously, who cares??

sparty- thanks for the kind words...also check out pezgordo...he's razor-sharp with totals