The 2019 Phil Steele/Northcoast Picks, Record Documentation, Commentary and Discussion Thread

[BuzzKill]

Best bets for Week 10 college football games from Phil Steele

Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here is Phil Steele's best bets for the ninth full week of the college football season:

Season ATS record:
Phil Steele record: 18-30 (2-3 last week)

Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.

Saturday's games

Boston College Eagles at Syracuse Orange (-3)

Phil Steele: Boston College is tough on the road, going 12-3-1 ATS the past six seasons as an away underdog. Syracuse came into the season with big expectations off a 10-win season but is now 0-4 in ACC play and is getting outgained by 160 yards per game in those four conference losses.
The Eagles have the game's best offensive player in running back AJ Dillon, but the most significant edge for Boston College is on the offensive line. The Eagles rush for 5.1 yards per rush and have allowed four sacks, and Syracuse's offensive line has opened holes for only 3.0 yards per rush while allowing 42 sacks. Steve Addazio is 12-1-1 ATS the past 14 games in the underdog role.
ATS pick: Boston College +3

Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels (-2)

Phil Steele: The winner of this game takes sole possession of first place in the mosh pit they call the ACC Coastal Division. Virginia is allowing just 284 YPG on defense, and North Carolina is yielding 384, but the Tar Heels have faced a much tougher schedule. On offense, the Tar Heels average 89 YPG more than what their opponents typically allow, and Virginia is gaining 49 YPG fewer than what opponents typically allow. UNC QB Sam Howell has 22 TDs and just five interceptions, and Cavaliers QB Bryce Perkins has a 9-8 ratio despite facing a softer schedule.
My computer has North Carolina with a 386-283 yard edge, and the Heels are laying less than a field goal in a night game at home.
ATS pick: North Carolina -2

Pittsburgh Panthers (-7.5) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Phil Steele: No one expected Pitt to win the Coastal division last season, but the Panthers did. Last week Pitt lost to Miami despite having a 322-208 yardage edge, but it still has a great shot at another Coastal crown with just two ACC losses. Pitt has one of the nation's most underrated defenses, allowing only 291 YPG and holding foes to 100 yards fewer than their season average. That is bad news for a Georgia Tech offense averaging just 315 yards per game.
Pitt is 11-2 ATS the past 13 regular-season games against FBS foes, and the Yellow Jackets are on a 1-9 ATS run their past 10 games.
ATS pick: Pittsburgh -7.5

Northern Illinois Huskies (-1) at Central Michigan Chippewas

Phil Steele: Central Michigan has two MAC road losses despite a 48-46 first-down edge in those games (-6 in turnovers). The Chippewas are plus-138 YPG in MAC play and have covered the past five meetings overall, including three outright upsets. Central's running back duo of Jonathan Ward and Kobe Lewis is tough to stop, and NIU allows 4.5 yards per rush. This is not the same NIU team of the past few seasons. Central Michigan also has a significant edge in my special-teams rankings.
ATS pick: Central Michigan +1

No. 14 Michigan Wolverines (-21) at Maryland Terrapins

Phil Steele: The Wolverines' offense emerged in the second half against a tough Penn State defense on the road a couple weeks ago and should continue to roll the rest of the season. Last week, they dominated Notre Dame, leading 45-7 with a 409-105 yard edge until a late Notre Dame scoring drive. When Maryland has faced a strong rush defense recently, it has struggled. The past two seasons, Maryland is 0-8 ATS and loses by 28 PPG when rushing for fewer than 165 yards in a game. Michigan is allowing 53 YPG rushing the past four weeks, despite facing Iowa, Penn State and Notre Dame in that span.
After some early-season struggles, the Wolverines should keep their offense rolling, as they have put up 59 points the past six quarters versus a pair of top-10 defenses. Next they take on a Terrapins defense that is allowing 500 YPG in Big Ten play.
ATS pick: Michigan -21

 

[savage1]

Thanks Buzz Kill for posting Steele's picks with "reasoning" and "logic."

Reading the reasoning and logic behind these picks ad looking at the pathetic 18-30 record so far of 37.5%, I feel more confident

than ever that most of what he uses to justify his picks and the basis on which NC makes theirs is mostly irrelevant and worthless

shit.

I am of the opinion that in some cases he predetermines which teams he is going to pick FIRST and then goes back and finds selective/one

way stats, trends and angles to support them, while at the same time totally disregarding any counter trend which would negate the pick.

This is essentially the same thing he/NC does wit their record keeping, namely just talk and consider the good stuff only.

 

[Cheddar]

In short as I see it, they are way too many other things which can and will happen in football games, some of which are intangible, that can't

be quantified and which have a direct bearing on who covers the spread.

I said in an earlier post today that NC needs to call in some kind of systems analyst to try to identify why the Late Phones do and have done so poorly

with all of the effort put it and to try to find the data most relevant and keep it while at the same time eliminating a lot of the worthless crap

contained in this video and similar stuff.

Again I am not a computer/systems analyst, but my gut feeling is that if Phil Steele/NC ever took the suggestions I have offered seriously today,

whoever did it would have his work cut out simply because there are so many stats trends and angles compiled.

Didn't you just contradict yourself?

Oh, and I have to disagree with your midterm grading on advertising. I give them an A+ For anyone selling a product or service their promotion is outstanding. A young first time caller would fall for that every time

 

[savage1]

Didn't you just contradict yourself?

Oh, and I have to disagree with your midterm grading on advertising. I give them an A+ For anyone selling a product or service their promotion is outstanding. A young first time caller would fall for that every time

In answer to your question. the answer is no for the simple reason that for the reason you mentioned I said "sometimes" not always.

To be clear I still think that the majority of his picks are based on the data fed into the computer but at times if he has a strong gut feeling, that

may have an effect on who he picks in that game assuming that he simply doesn't toss the pick out altogether.

In short I would be lying if I didn't believe that over the years that Phil Steele's biases and arrogant opinions did not have any influence on his selections.

And taking the consumer advocate's point of view, I obviously disagree with your A+ rating in the same manner in which I would by giving

a late night infomercial miracle snake oil con artist an A+ because he happened to sell a good amount of the product.

In short I stand by my D grade for advertising for NC on a relative basis-it is only a D because there are people who are worse.

If NC was the only service out there, they would get an F.

In short in this instance "Beauty/ugliness is in the eyes of the beholder."

​

 

[savage1]

Ok here we go wth a summary of the comp. messages:

Ext. 9 No real surprises here.

We get the standard Marquee pumps for the two plays going on Thursday.

We hear the same pump for "The turn back the clock special as yesterday.

THE RON JEREMY BIG DONG/SALAMI/DOG COMP. OF THE WEEK IS ARMY + 15 1l2.

Ext. 3 The daily contrived and forced "dinner special" is apparently for PS subscribers as no mention of cost for a non PS subscriber.

Nothing else worth mentioning.

THE NFL TOTALS COMP. OF THE WEEK IS UNDER JACKSONVILLE 46 1/2.

 

[savage1]

Didn't you just contradict yourself?

Oh, and I have to disagree with your midterm grading on advertising. I give them an A+ For anyone selling a product or service their promotion is outstanding. A young first time caller would fall for that every time

ps Also if you read my original post carefully, you will see that I did give them a sarcatic A using your reasoning.

"This is a far cry from the known and obvious liars with their made-up 94-7, etc. records-thus if you want to look at from the perspective of how they recount their

records as opposed to most other services, well then I would give them an A. lol"
​

 

[savage1]

One last comment/summation for now for those who haven't been reading my commentary about the Phil Steele/NC picks the last few days.

The fact is that the Late Phones are hitting at 50% this season and have lost significant money in each year I have been documenting them starting 3 1/2 years ago.

Phil Steele brags about all of the stats, trends, angles he compiles compared to other sports services as well as his 100-120 hour work weeks.

The factis that whatever he/NC do in the way they pick games is clearly not working and needs to be tweaked/revamped a lot at least if not completely

overhauled by whatever means possible.

 

[Cheddar]

In answer to your question. the answer is no for the simple reason that for the reason you mentioned I said "sometimes" not always.

To be clear I still think that the majority of his picks are based on the data fed into the computer but at times if he has a strong gut feeling, that

may have an effect on who he picks in that game assuming that he simply doesn't toss the pick out altogether.

In short I would be lying if I didn't believe that over the years that Phil Steele's biases and arrogant opinions did not have any influence on his selections.

And taking the consumer advocate's point of view, I obviously disagree with your A+ rating in the same manner in which I would by giving

a late night infomercial miracle snake oil con artist an A+ because he happened to sell a good amount of the product.

In short I stand by my D grade for advertising for NC on a relative basis-it is only a D because there are people who are worse.

If NC was the only service out there, they would get an F.

In short in this instance "Beauty/ugliness is in the eyes of the beholder."

​

No where in what I copied does it say "sometimes". I honestly think you should call Phil and offer your services. You have all the answers as to how and fix their problems and you can spin the answers to questions with the best of them. Hell, maybe he will give you free picks

 

[savage1]

No where in what I copied does it say "sometimes". I honestly think you should call Phil and offer your services. You have all the answers as to how and fix their problems and you can spin the answers to questions with the best of them. Hell, maybe he will give you free picks

Don't get your bowels in an uproar as I think there maybe some misunderstanding here.

First of all to be sure I understand you correctly, I think you are saying to me that I am correcting myself by saying that I first said it is the data fed into

the computer which needs to be changed rather than anything about Phil Steele per se.

Assuming that it is correct, then here is where the misunderstanding may lie.

No you didn't use the word "sometimes" and neither did I.

I misquoted myself in post 404 by using the word "sometimes" rather than "some cases" which is what I actually said in post 402.

What in essence I was trying to tell you that in some cases imo he uses the data the way he wants to use it, and that he may actually give out/not give out a pick

even if the computer data is in disagreement.

I think in the majority of cases he goes with the computer picks, but knowing his arrogance, feeling of infallibility, etc. it is certainly within the realm of possibility

that in certain cases he does have and will use his right of final say to determine some of the picks.

In retrospect this is something I should have mentioned yesterday when I was discussing/assessing the problems, ie the problem of

El Maestro, Phil Steele himself.

This is right in line with what I perceive as a bigger problem here, namely his deciding what data should be fed in and what should not and never

wavering from/changing the criterion and data one iota even if the results are poor, which is obviously the case here.

If I am right about this, then imo to try to fix things a bit, one would not only need some kinds of system analyst but also a good psychiatrist for Phil as

he is obviously very set in his ways of doing things in every aspect of the manner in which he picks his games

and the overall modus operandi which hasn't changed since NC was started by him back in 1982.

The rest of you what you say is a bit of misquote as I have simple stated broad and POSSIBLE suggestions as to how to improve things.

It is no different in most aspects of life when there is a problem-namely identify it, try to find the cause of the problem, which may involve

trial and error and then try to fix it, which again may involve trial and error.

Imo what I just said about NC is clearly, and thus above applies to them, meaning changes have to be made by whatever means if Steele/ NC have any

hopes of achieving success with their picks, marketability and profitability-for me it is that simple in theory anyways.

Hope that clarifies things a bit.

 

[BuzzKill]

Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - Thursday NFL

 

[savage1]

The picks I really want from Phil Steele are the ones we get tomorrow, called "The Weekly Tour Picks" you know the picks that Phil stuffs in his briefcase,

the ones which Phil brings himself and "pick" to different stadiums, arenas concert halls, etc around the country so that Phil and the "picks" can

get to meet everyone, sign autographs, field questions and of course be offered discounts by vendors for various Phil Steele and NC weekly

publications; if purchased, the se significant discounts apply to various concessions on food, clothing, etc.

In fact, from what I have heard from someone who has attended one of these events, one of the popular items you can buy at a discount

if you buy a one year subscription to PowerSweep is a personally autographed T-Shirt by Phil Steele with big emblazoned letters/words on it

stating I LOVE PHIL STEELE/NORTHCOAST or PHIL STEELE THE GREATEST HANDICAPPER EVER!! @)
​

 

[savage1]

My bad-in previous post I forgot to mention what the price is for one of these Phil Steele/NC T-Shirts.

Now I want you all to sit down because what I am about to say is going to blow you away and you might be overwhelmed.

Anyways if you can believe it, if you sign up for a PowerSweep subscription at one of these tour sites, you can buy one of these T-Shirts

at the unheard of discounted price of just $99.99!!

The retail value of these shorts according to Phil Steele/NC is $325!!!

If someone knows where this week's tour is being held, please state as I am going to drive or fly there, buy a PS subscription

and buy as many of these shirts as possible with the full expectations that as time passes and Phil continues to show/prove

his remarkable handicapping skills, the shirts will become collector's items and will be valued at the very least in the tens of thousands

of dollars if not hundreds of dollars!!!

How can you go wrong!!!!@)^!:

 

[savage1]

Here you go with NC's two Real men don't eat Mar"quiche" Plays:

Northcoast
Marquee: Arizona under 43
West Virginia over 57

 

[savage1]

Here you go with NC's two Real men don't eat Mar"quiche" Plays:

Northcoast
Marquee: Arizona under 43 L
West Virginia over 57

L

Red hot Marquees tumble and go 0-2.

 

[BuzzKill]

Power Sweep
Power Plays

 

[savage1]

Early Look

First of all check out post 415 which is the current PS issue posted last night posted by Buzz Kill.

Now check out the headline and the outstanding records posted..

This is a clear example of the overall lies by omission, bullshit and deception that Phil Steele/NC is known for and why they are not respected much anymore.

Why do I say that?

Well in this instance, notice as usual the carefully selected parts of their services they brag about which have been winning over carefully selected time frames to

make themselves look good-in fact with the NFL that had the audacity to go back to the last few weeks of LAST season to pad their record!!

Nowhere in the headline or that which follows is it stated that the key college plays went 0-3 last week and the key pros 1-2!!

In a perfect world where sports services were licensed and regulated, this kind of shit would not be allowed and Phil Steele and/or the marketing crew at

NC would either have to change their ways or be putout of business until they did!!

Now lets look at the "Turn Back the Clock Special" which Todd touted earlier in the week, the details of which would be found on page 8 of the new issue of

PowerSweep.

Well PS wasn't available until last night, but Todd announced the details of it the day after he said there would be a special; I posted the details

of this earlier in the week.

Anyways lets take a look at page 8 now that it is available.

TURN BACK THE CLOCK WEEKEND!!
We started NC Sports back in 1982.
Get this Week at 1982's Prices!!
College


H Sides: $50


NFL
H Plays: $50
Get Both: $75


*2020 Sub Take $10.00 of prices above


We didn't even offer Totals in 1982!! Get College TOTALS for just $25
1982 TODAY
AVERAGE COST OF A CAR: $9,903 $25,449
AVERAGE COST OF GAS: $1.22 $2.49
MCDONALD'S BIG MAC: $1.30 $3.99
TURN BACK THE CLOCK WEEKEND!!
We started NC Sports back in 1982.
Get this Week at 1982's Prices!!
College


H Sides: $50


NFL
H Plays: $50
Get Both: $75

While the pricing is the same as Todd said on comp. phone, what I found curious is the references to the prices in 1982 for a new car, gas and McDonalds as

compared to now.

Imo it is interesting to know but has nothing to do with their special.

First of all for the vast differential in prices cited to have any meaning, one would have factor iin the differential the annual yearly average disposable income

between 1982 now and also know the impact of inflation on this.

Just as importantly if not more so, in the case of a car, gas or a Big Mac, one is actually getting a tangible and guaranteed item in return, whereas with NC

one does not.

In short as I see it, if NC is trying to make the point somehow that their "turn back the clock special" is something spectacular because their own

pricing is the same as 1982(using the examples they cited above from other industries), it fails for the simple reason

that unlike the examples they cited, you are not getting back a tangible item in return but rather only a reduced price to

obtain some gambling picks with no guarantee at all that they will win; historically speaking, it is more likely that folks will

lose.

What this in essence means that it is more likely than not that you will still lose the money you invested in betting the games but will just lose less

because the cost of obtaining the Late Phones has been decreased.

I hope the point is clear here.

Also imo NC is being a bit hypocritical here for the simple reason that they are on the one hand using 1982 prices but tacking on an additional $25 for the totals

with the implied reasoning being that there were no totals back in 1982 meaning that they have the right to charge extra for that-lets just say that I don't buy

that line of justification and that they should be included in the 1982 price.

To change the subject, I am curious as to why they are offering this special in the first place.

To be blunt, is it because the are doing so well with their picks, that they decided to be generous and give back a little to the "hundreds of thousands of loyal

people" who have been buying these picks week after week OR "perhaps" is it because despite their lies, omissions and overall bullshit and

deception, virtually no one gives a rat's ass about their picks as far as purchasing them goes and thus have figured that they have nothing to

lose and a lot to gain if they reduce prices, people buy in and if the picks win.

In the demented minds of Phil Steele and/or the other "geniuses" in the Marketing Dept at NC, imo they figure if everything goes as expected, ie lots of people

sign up and the picks win, this in itself will change the overall shitty present image that people have of NC and have people lining up

to buy the Late Phones at the regular higher price for next weekend and the rest of the season-yeah right! lol

Back later.

 

[BuzzKill]

 

[savage1]

Thank God I can rest easier as the Phil Steele Weekly Victory Tour Picks have been posted!!
I stand by what I said in post 411. lol

 

[savage1]

Only ext. 9 has a new message today and frankly there is nothing new to talk about.

We are told there is one college game going tonight.

It goes without saying that that means NC is going to have a paid Marquee playing-the idea of just giving out a free opinion on it or passing

on it altogether is not in the vocabulary of Phil Steele/NC-if there is something out there to charge money for, the Lock of a Lifetime is that NC is

going to put out a pick.

The rest of the comp. consists of the same parrot-like pump by Todd for the "Turn back the Clock Weekend," we have heard all week.

Before giving the comp, I listened to Phil Steele talk for a minute or two in the link posted in #418 for the Weekly Victory Tour Picks and thought I MAY

have detected a slight slur in his voice-if some other folks who have followed him over the years and know the regular sound of his voice agree, then

perhaps Phil should go to see a doctor to be sure that he is ok and in a worse case scenario hasn't suffered a mini stroke.

If people don't agree with me, then fine-I just think I should at least mention this in case there is something to this.

ANYWAYS THE BIG TEN COMP. OF THE WEEK IS NORTHWESTERN + 10 1/2.

 

[savage1]

Well at the very least we know the Marquee pick is on the total tonight according to the SM:1

One Unit Total Play Game details will be visible after game time Friday November 1st, 2019 ​

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