The 2019 Phil Steele/Northcoast Picks, Record Documentation, Commentary and Discussion Thread

[savage1]

Just one other point I want to add to the War and Peace dissertation I wrote yesterday regarding one's chances of long term success gambling

as opposed to investing in the stock market, once again using NC/Phil Steele as an example.

A number of years ago when Phil Steele/NC were in their heyday so to speak before the internet and gambling sites decimated their overall

revenue stream by posting most of their publications and picks for free, someone asked Phil if he bet the games he gave out to subscribers.

His response was and I am loosely quoting, "No, why should I take that risk when I have so many people paying me good and very profitable money for them."

Now I am sure that there are a number of services which do in fact bet their own games.

That said, I personally don't believe that there many services if any sports services which can survive/make a living out of strictly betting their own games if

they give out picks 24/7/365.

In short, imo in order to survive and/or to have survived for many years such as Jim Feist, Dave Cokin, Wayne Root, Kelso, NC, Larry Ness, Marco, and on

and on and on, they need/needed to have clients paying them money on a sustained basis(and yes this applies to just about all the relatively unknown

services found in this section) for the simple reason that the 10% juice over time will kill just about everyone.

just look at the NC example I cited yesterday in post 353.

Over the 3 1/2 years I have documented their picks, anyone following is down 4k just on the picks but 18K factoring in the cost of service.

Thus in this example, if theoretically Phil Steele had bet his own games, he would be down 4K.

However in theory he would actually be up 10K because of the $14K sent to him for the picks.

My overall point here is that imo for the most part, if the prime intent of sports service is to make money, than yes making good and

consistent picks are very important but nowhere near as possible as the results/need the marketing efforts to bring in clients as far as

their profitability and/or lack of it are concerned.

This falls right in line with NC for sure with all of their daily and varying dinner special promotions as well as and very importantly trying to

convince people that they are winning al of the time by their slick/one sided and deceptive advertising.

Back later.
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[BuzzKill]

 

[savage1]

Very quick today as opposed to yesterday.

Wednesday as always is Economy Club Promo Day.

Go back to any Wednesday in this thread if you want to hear the pitch as it never changes.

The only new thing today not mentioned yesterday is that a non PS subscriber can buy the TOM going Saturday alone for $75.

No changes on ext. 3.

ANYWAYS THE #2 ECONOMY CLUB Play OF TH WEEK IS EASTERN MICHIGAN + 3 1/2.

Keep in mind that this midweek play like all Economy Club plays may somehow do something "on its own" or something

may happen to it over which "it' has no control to elevate it to a Late Phone Play come Saturday. lol

ps if anyone has any idea which would cause it to become a mere midweek play to Late Phone Status, which

we all know have done "so well" this season and over the years, feel free to state it.

 

[savage1]

One last comment(sorry i couldn't resist) related to last post.

Perhaps Phil Steele/NC have all of the Economy Club Plays line up like they do in say the Miss America of Miss Universe Contest.

At that point they go through a process of elimination like the swim suit competition in the contests cited above and

are reduced to say the final five.

At that point as is the case in the beauty contests, the finalists pick reach into a hat and pull out a question and answer it.

After all of this Phil Steele and/or the others involved in the selection committee decide and.or vote which of the Economy Club "picks"

is the winner and has earned the right to graduate to the ultimate prize of becoming a Late Phone pick on Saturday.@)

 

[savage1]

Early look:

First of all consider this headline in this week's PS issue.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-NbckiMptTBVp8zxH0ZvYtk8yNolZou_/view

What I find interesting and telling is that the key releases in PS went 4-0 last week and have gone 8-1 over the last three weeks.

Remember that these plays are put out either Sunday night or on Monday preceding the Saturday to come.

On the other hand, the Late Phones which are supposed to contain the latest breaking information have gone 16-15, which includes sides

and totals over the last three weeks.

Keep in mind also that PS is sold weekly for $10 or anywhere from $79-$109 annually depending on when you buy it and whether there

is any discount being offered.

The Late Phone costs for colleges along can and will vary depending on if there is a big play going-the minimum is around $125.

Last week none of the 4-0 key releases in PS turned out to be Late Phone Plays-interesting to say the least.

Stuff like this is not an isolated example and happens all of the time.

Several conclusions can be drawn from all of this:

Over time the PS college picks have been every bit as good as the Late Phone Picks and probably better.

Imo one of the reasons for this is that the PS picks are put out very early to meet publishing deadlines and thus are based on far less

analysis and handicapping methods than are the Late Phone which aren't released until Saturday.

In fact as I have always said imo the reasons that the Late Phones struggle as opposed to the PS picks

and Marquees is because there is a lot of overkill and irrelevant stuff put into the former which just muddies

the water and overall are a detriment-not a perfect analogy but it sort of reminds me of the old adage that "Too many

cooks spoil the broth."

Imo if Phil Steele and/or the other cappers who come up with the Late Phones didn't dig for every minute detail

and just concentrated on the real basic stuff, they would do a lot better.

And lets not kid ourselves, lots of cappers who do well over time do well not just because of the stats, trends and angles they compile

but also because they combine that with their strong intuitive sense of what is going to happen in games, which involves intangibles

which cannot be compiled and broken down into components.

The other aspect of this though is that the PS picks and their many other types of picks such as PowerPlays, Marquees, Top Opinions,

regular opinions, this play or that play of the week, comps, etc., usually NC to clearly find something to brag about, which is clearly

the case here, namely the PS picks did well last week and over the last three weeks but not much else in their repertoire.

Also as I have said many times, in most cases designated Late Phone Plays not just for NC but for most services are nothing more

than trying to blow smoke up you ass with the bs implication that there is something which occurs on a Saturday which makes a play

more likely to win than a play released earlier in the week.

The PS Example vs the NC Late Phones is just one of many examples which could be cited.

Back later.

 

[savage1]

Ok-here we go with today's message, and I will try to be as brief as possible.

in essence on ext.9 and ext 3 combined means today as always on Thursday that we will hear about the Ron Jeremy Big Dong Plays and get the NFL Totals Comp.

Today is no different.

In addition we are "treated" to the same pricing we have heard all week and on this particular day of the week with one exception, namely that the non PS

will have to pay $139 rather the the cited $159 earlier to get everything for the week with an additional $29 for the totals other than the TOM, which is

included.

We are also "treated" by Todd to the same glamorous recaps over VERY SELECT portions of their record only over VERY SELECT TIME FRAMES.

If one believed Todd, one would conclude that anyone playing their picks should be filthy rich by now rather than the actual DOCUMENTED truth

which is being down almost 3K this year and 18K over the last three and a half seasons!!

I think you get the picture.

EXT. 9 THE RON JEREMY BIG DONG/SALAMI/DOG COMP. OF THE WEEK IS TEMPLE + 11.

EXT. 3 THE NFL TOTALS COMP. OF THE WEEK IS UNDER DENVER 43 1/2.

 

[savage1]

One last thought for today which I want to include with previous post..

If I had to give Phil Steele/Todd/NC actual credit for anything, it would be for bamboozling folks with bullshit very well for people who don't dig beneath

the surface like yours truly, which makes their records quite believable to folks who just believe what they DO say but don't worry and/or

not concerned what they DON'T tell you about their record when EVERYTHING is considered.

In essence this means that they talk/emphasize on the good stuff, which they hope

will fly and put them in a good light and make them out to be a winning service, which is far from the case as I have shown.

Thus I nominate Phil Steele/Todd/NC for doing the "best" job out of their of all handicappers/scamdicappers of promoting themselves using their

record as the criterion.

 

[savage1]

And now straight from the horse's ass:

Northcoast ​

​

marquees​

​

SMU -13’​

​

under 42’ Minnesota / Washington​

 

[BuzzKill]

Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - Thursday NFL

 

[savage1]

Here is some NFL halftime "entertainment" for you.

I know I speak in generalties about how NC spins its records and gives a total misrepresentation as to how they are doing overtime.

Anyways using today's comp. line messages as an example I decided to see how much NC is trying to blow smoke up your ass with their records,

I wrote down each of Todd's boastful records for SELECTIVE and various aspects of their record over SELECTIVE aspects of their services.

Here you go:

Ext. 9- 22-12;9-3;26-9

Ext. 3- 16-7;4-1;19-12

I totaled all of them up and came up with a record of 96-44 or an outstanding 68.6%-tough to beat that!!!

However, I didn't hear any mention of their overall documented Late Phone record for this season which is 56-52-1 or 51.9% which is below the theoretical

break even point of 52.35%

You can draw your own conclusions as to what this means.

 

[BuzzKill]

 

[savage1]

What is a weekly tour?

Does Phil Steele stick his picks in his briefcase and travel from city to city all over the US where people gather in arenas, stadiums and concert halls

to meet him and his "picks" and perhaps request autographs from them?

Do people have to pay money to attend these tours?

Does he have people stationed outside the various places cited selling weekly copies or annual subscriptions for his publications?

 

[savage1]

Ext. 9 Nothing new in the way of promotions you haven't herad alread this week concerning the weekend.

Ext/ 3 remains unchanged from yesterday.

My only comment is that imo NC shouldn't charge more for non PS subscribers for the weekly Late Phones, as one has nothing to do with the other.

PS is an entity in itself, and some folks like to read the writeups as well as the picks, and do not buy it primarily to get the Late Phones for a discount.

Some people want just the picks and imo should be able to buy them for the same prices as the PS suscribers do, the main reason being that the so called

discounted prices are not really much of a discount to begin with because the retail price/what non PS subscribers pay is well overpriced.

In short I say let PS stand on its own merits and offer everyone the same price for the Late Phones-it might increase their revenues.

THE BIG TWELVE PICK OF THE WEEK IS KANSAS STATE + 23 1/2(same pick as last week).

 

[BuzzKill]

Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - NFL

 

[savage1]

Quick early thoughts:

So the big question as always is which play or plays should the NC subscriber or potential subscriber play or but this week.

Ahould it be the PowerSweep Plays based on the 8-1 run of late-should it be the other weekly NC publication, PowerPlays,

should it be the Economy Club Plays, you know the mid week plays which some how "graduate" the Late Phone status by Saturday, should it be the Big Dog

Plays, perhaps it should just be the comps.

Or how about just going to the horse's mouth, Phil Steele and playing the Weekly(Grand) tour Picks, or perhaps the Inside the (Poopbox), oops I mean Inside

the Pressbox=how about those red hot Marquees, or to be safe perhaps just perhaps one should play or buy NC''s most expensive plays, The Late Phone

Plays, with their 51.95% winning percentage or using the week as a criterion, have won overall two weeks and have lost six weeks so far this season.

Perhaps the subscriber should buy all of these different types of plays with the confidence that he should be perceptive enough which

plays to play out of all of those plays and which to not play.

But to be really sure, why not play all of these and also buy Full Executive Service for the Week and get even more plays and opinions tossed in along with

this Conference or that Conference play of the Week.

And don't forget the College Totals GOM is going this week.

Maybe he should just play that and nothing else unless of course he is psychic enough what other plays are going to win.

In short, just concentrate/buy the plays which are going to win this weekend and you have you Offshore or local bookmaker at your mercy.

 

[BuzzKill]

Power Sweep
Power Plays

 

[savage1]

I will spare you the details of ext.9 and ext. 3 as if you have heard one Saturday bs package/promotion, you have heard them all.

The only noteworth thing is that it turns out they had a Mar"quees"my ass loser last night on USC

Ext. 9 THE COLLEGE TOTALS COMP. OF THE WEEK IS UNDER SAN DIEGO STATE 45.

EXT. 3 THE COLLEGE SIDES COMP. OF THE WEEK IS TULANE +4.

 

[rush__man]

I skimmed the dissertation, but agree with the synopsis of stocks vs gambling. That being said, NC is a marketing firm that is trying to make money as the same as other sports services. You already agreed that you would not give money back on losses so why should NC or any other sports service? Hypochrisy at its best. lol. You haven't posted the plays in a timely manner so it is difficult to fade or follow and maximize what you are trying to do. You say the reporting from NC is redundant, but so are most of your weekly posts summarizing and analyzing. You do what you want to do and be happy. In my younger years when I did not invest, I used to get calls from brokers all the time. I used to tell them that I gambed on sports instead of investing in the market and that my long term investing was that if a game went to overtime. They usually hung up.

There is no such thing as a successful sports gambler so what is your point? You want the plays early for? What just to lose money?

I think Savage is just tracking NC so there is truth to what they are doing. They aren't like the thousands of others because they at one point were good enough to move lines. I just don't think you understand what he it trying to do here.

 

[BuzzKill]

Northcoast

4* Hawaii -9'
4* Temple +12
3* Texas -1
3* E. Michigan +3
3* C. Michigan +2'
3* Troy +15
Marquee WKU +4'

 

[savage1]

Northcoast

4* Hawaii -9'
4* Temple +12
3* Texas -1
3* E. Michigan +3
3* C. Michigan +2'
3* Troy +15
Marquee WKU +4'


Northcoast Totals

4'* Notre Dame under 50
4* Miami, FL under 43
3* Penn St under 43'
3* Texas Tech over 64'
Marquee Syracuse under 59​