4-5-1 on the day including TOM LOSER as a slew of points late kills the bet.
Unofficially I have them losing 5.25 units on the day.
UNRATED Marquees go 3-0 though to "save" the day.
ps I haven't done official tally but it looks like the NC/they count and are talked/bragged about COMPS. when they win also had a very good day.
Early thoughts:
If you can believe it and my calculations are right. NC loses 5.25 units on the day and goes 4-5-1 with its Late Phones.
Comps. go and outstanding 7-1 and Marquees 3-0.
The bottom line though is that the Late Phones, the ones which people are most interested in ad pay out the most money for, lose again, meaning that
unless they sweep the NFL today with their three plays, it will be just another LOSING week no matter how the two star does tomorrow night.
In fact if they do go on and lose this week, it will mean that out of that they will have lost overall seven out of the nine weeks since football begin.
If NC is the "true champions" we all know we are(lol), they will pull themselves up from the floor with a 3-0 day today.
I mean is that asking too much?-if they can go 7-1 with the relatively lowly rated comps. and 3-0 with the Marquees, then surely a 3-0 in the NFL
should be a snap of the football away.
Back in a bit.
If you can believe it and my calculations are right. NC loses 5.25 units on the day and goes 4-5-1 with its Late Phones.
Comps. go and outstanding 7-1 and Marquees 3-0.
The bottom line though is that the Late Phones, the ones which people are most interested in ad pay out the most money for, lose again, meaning that
unless they sweep the NFL today with their three plays, it will be just another LOSING week no matter how the two star does tomorrow night.
In fact if they do go on and lose this week, it will mean that out of that they will have lost overall seven out of the nine weeks since football begin.
If NC is the "true champions" we all know we are(lol), they will pull themselves up from the floor with a 3-0 day today.
I mean is that asking too much?-if they can go 7-1 with the relatively lowly rated comps. and 3-0 with the Marquees, then surely a 3-0 in the NFL
should be a snap of the football away.
Back in a bit.
The comp. message is out, and Todd is honest and says just about everything I did in previous post re: the record except for some reason he doesn't mention
the great day the comps. had.
The usual Sunday pricing in effect, and if someone wants more, ie more than the three plays, they can sign up for Full Executive Service for $99.
THE PRO PLAY OF THE WEEK COMP. IS THE NEW YORK GIANTS + 6 1/2.
Back later MAYBE with the Late Phones assuming they are available, which is not a slam dunk anymore.
the great day the comps. had.
The usual Sunday pricing in effect, and if someone wants more, ie more than the three plays, they can sign up for Full Executive Service for $99.
THE PRO PLAY OF THE WEEK COMP. IS THE NEW YORK GIANTS + 6 1/2.
Back later MAYBE with the Late Phones assuming they are available, which is not a slam dunk anymore.
Another losing day, another losing week assured, making it seven out of nine LOSING weeks for the season combined college and pro.
If you were psychic enough to play JUST the comps., you went an amazing 9-1 if my calculations are correct.
Marquees also had a very good week-don't know exact numbers as I don't have them for today except for tonoght but they did go 3-0 yesterday.
No doubt what will be stressed and talk about on the comp. line this week-hint-it isn't the Late Phones.
In post 384 I stated that NC needed a sweep today to have any chance of avoiding yet another losing week.
Well they got the sweep all right but sadly in reverse thus making for a very bad overall Saturday and Sunday weekend.
I am still shaking my head as to how they went 9-1 with their comps.
I will have some commentary on this sometime in the next 24 hours featuring the possible reasons for this dichotomy and
what they should consider doing to try to fix it.
Well they got the sweep all right but sadly in reverse thus making for a very bad overall Saturday and Sunday weekend.
I am still shaking my head as to how they went 9-1 with their comps.
I will have some commentary on this sometime in the next 24 hours featuring the possible reasons for this dichotomy and
what they should consider doing to try to fix it.
Ok here we go with some commentary for those who are interested.
This week while an extreme case for NC, exemplifies a big problem NC has, namely winning with their Late Phone picks, which are the ones
people want for the most part and pay the most money for.
So far this week folks who played these picks are down around 16 units, which translates to $1600 at $100 a unit.
They also lost their TOM and went 0-3 with Late Phones yesterday after an overall rotten day on Saturday
When factoring in the cost and adding to the existing deficit, people playing to scale are down around 5K for the season.
However as I said yesterday the comps. went 9-1 this week and had an very good week also with the Marquees(assuming that the Marquees
not posted for yesterday held their own).
The only good which comes out of this is that on the comp. line Todd can and will use these comps/Marquees to try to divert attention from
the poor Late Phones record.
Yes the above is an extreme case, but lets not forget that even though Todd distorts the records of the comps. each and season and cumulatively
by using only the selective time frames to make them seem better than they are, the fact is that they have been winning overall this season and other seasons also
and over the time frames used by Todd.
Just call the comp. line any day of the week, and you will hear that every single one of the various comps. given out each day are positive, some from the mid 50%
to others substantially higher such as the Early Bird Play for this season and cumulatively.
While winning these comps. seem great on the surface, it does pose some problems for NC.
First of all keep in mind that the primary purpose of any comp. line including that of NC is of course to win them but more importantly to get people
to call in the first place so that they can promote the picks of the picks which aren't free, in this case the Late Phones.
There are several things to consider here:
1) When people see that the free comps. are doing better than the paid plays, with this week being the extreme case, where the comps. excelled and the
paid plays fizzled, most are going to conclude to not bother with the paid plays and just concentrate on the comps. and/or the Marquees, which
while not free, cost considerably less than the Late Phones even with the bogus/phony discounts offered by NC with absurd alleged retail prices being the basis
of the discounts.
2) Imo the number of people who actually call the comp. line is a shadow of what it used to be because the comps. are posted here and at other forums,
Lets face it not many people want to hear and listen to Todd drone on before giving out the comps. with the various and confusing forced daily
specials which many times overlap and sometimes are even inconsistent with each other.
3) Other than to fade perhaps, one has to wonder why anyone would be interested in the Late Phones anyways.
As stated above, they are already down substantially this seaosn and have lost each and every year since I started documenting them 3 1/2 years ago.
In addition most of the time they are posted for free anyways, although not quite as timely sometimes as in the past because very few people are buying them
these days.
Anyways therein lies the problems as I see it facing NC.
I was going to include possible ways to fix it at least a little bit today, but since I have already gone on a bit long, I am going to save what I see as a partial
and possible solution until tomorrow morning.
Personally what I am going to propose will not by any means solve NC's problems because there are just too many things working against them and Phil
Steele as anyone who has read my posts knows.
The again though, they have to start somewhere if they want to try to improve things, such as the dismal now seven out of nine weeks with their Late
Phone Picks.
TO BE CONTINUED
This week while an extreme case for NC, exemplifies a big problem NC has, namely winning with their Late Phone picks, which are the ones
people want for the most part and pay the most money for.
So far this week folks who played these picks are down around 16 units, which translates to $1600 at $100 a unit.
They also lost their TOM and went 0-3 with Late Phones yesterday after an overall rotten day on Saturday
When factoring in the cost and adding to the existing deficit, people playing to scale are down around 5K for the season.
However as I said yesterday the comps. went 9-1 this week and had an very good week also with the Marquees(assuming that the Marquees
not posted for yesterday held their own).
The only good which comes out of this is that on the comp. line Todd can and will use these comps/Marquees to try to divert attention from
the poor Late Phones record.
Yes the above is an extreme case, but lets not forget that even though Todd distorts the records of the comps. each and season and cumulatively
by using only the selective time frames to make them seem better than they are, the fact is that they have been winning overall this season and other seasons also
and over the time frames used by Todd.
Just call the comp. line any day of the week, and you will hear that every single one of the various comps. given out each day are positive, some from the mid 50%
to others substantially higher such as the Early Bird Play for this season and cumulatively.
While winning these comps. seem great on the surface, it does pose some problems for NC.
First of all keep in mind that the primary purpose of any comp. line including that of NC is of course to win them but more importantly to get people
to call in the first place so that they can promote the picks of the picks which aren't free, in this case the Late Phones.
There are several things to consider here:
1) When people see that the free comps. are doing better than the paid plays, with this week being the extreme case, where the comps. excelled and the
paid plays fizzled, most are going to conclude to not bother with the paid plays and just concentrate on the comps. and/or the Marquees, which
while not free, cost considerably less than the Late Phones even with the bogus/phony discounts offered by NC with absurd alleged retail prices being the basis
of the discounts.
2) Imo the number of people who actually call the comp. line is a shadow of what it used to be because the comps. are posted here and at other forums,
Lets face it not many people want to hear and listen to Todd drone on before giving out the comps. with the various and confusing forced daily
specials which many times overlap and sometimes are even inconsistent with each other.
3) Other than to fade perhaps, one has to wonder why anyone would be interested in the Late Phones anyways.
As stated above, they are already down substantially this seaosn and have lost each and every year since I started documenting them 3 1/2 years ago.
In addition most of the time they are posted for free anyways, although not quite as timely sometimes as in the past because very few people are buying them
these days.
Anyways therein lies the problems as I see it facing NC.
I was going to include possible ways to fix it at least a little bit today, but since I have already gone on a bit long, I am going to save what I see as a partial
and possible solution until tomorrow morning.
Personally what I am going to propose will not by any means solve NC's problems because there are just too many things working against them and Phil
Steele as anyone who has read my posts knows.
The again though, they have to start somewhere if they want to try to improve things, such as the dismal now seven out of nine weeks with their Late
Phone Picks.
TO BE CONTINUED
This will be relatively short compared to what I wrote earlier.
No surprises on comp. line.
As expected Todd tells us about the great winning record for the ext. 9 comps. for the week as well as for the season.
He then accurately recaps yesterday's 0-3 day.
Then we are told about the allegedly "great discounts" PS subscribers can get for upcoming week by calling the office-sure, right, ok if you say so.
Then it is on he same. never changing ad for Monday Night-$20 for the Monday Night Magic Play with no guarantee or $30 with $40 back in store credit
if it loses.
It goes without saying once again that this cheapo operation has no compassion for anyone who get smoked this weekend buying the TOM or
any of the Late Phone Packages.
I guess it is asking too much for NC to show any compassion for these folks to simply give them both of tonight's plays for free.
Nah-just easier for these money grubbing folks to act/pretend like nothing bad happened to folks who played their picks over the weekend
and charge more money.
THE EARLY BIRD PLAY IS LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE -22.
No surprises on comp. line.
As expected Todd tells us about the great winning record for the ext. 9 comps. for the week as well as for the season.
He then accurately recaps yesterday's 0-3 day.
Then we are told about the allegedly "great discounts" PS subscribers can get for upcoming week by calling the office-sure, right, ok if you say so.
Then it is on he same. never changing ad for Monday Night-$20 for the Monday Night Magic Play with no guarantee or $30 with $40 back in store credit
if it loses.
It goes without saying once again that this cheapo operation has no compassion for anyone who get smoked this weekend buying the TOM or
any of the Late Phone Packages.
I guess it is asking too much for NC to show any compassion for these folks to simply give them both of tonight's plays for free.
Nah-just easier for these money grubbing folks to act/pretend like nothing bad happened to folks who played their picks over the weekend
and charge more money.
THE EARLY BIRD PLAY IS LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE -22.
Ok-here we go with the first of what as it stands now will be three posts today.
This one will contain the usual Tuesday recaps for the week past and for the entire season.
In the second post I will conclude what I started in post 389 yesterday.
The third post will contain the minutes of the comp. line message today after it is released along with the two comps.
This one will contain the usual Tuesday recaps for the week past and for the entire season.
In the second post I will conclude what I started in post 389 yesterday.
The third post will contain the minutes of the comp. line message today after it is released along with the two comps.
- Recaps for Week Nine:
College sides and totals 4-5 with 5.25 units LOST.
Pros 1-3with 8.45 units LOST.
Overall for the week 13.7 units were LOST or $1,370 at $100 a unit.
The cheapest cost of service for a non PS subscriber of the several mentioned to get all of the Late Phone Plays
was $188.
Thus factoring the cost, it is seen that 15.58 units or $1m558 was LOST.
Cumulative:
College 46-43-1 with 11.70 units LOST.
Pro 15-17-1 with 12.05 units LOST.
Overall 23.75 units have been LOST or MINUS $2,375 at $100 a unit.
The total cost of service so far is 18.6 units or $2,048.
Thus adding in the cost, it is seen that so far the non PS subscriber is MINUS 44.23 units or MINUS $4,423 at
$100 a unit.
Also starting today since Todd chooses selective and different time frames to show how great each and every
one of the plays have been doing, I am going to do the same with the overall record, the big difference that I
am going to use one and only one time frame to this this-this is when I stated recapping the Late Phone three
and a half years ago.
Overall including last week over the last three and a half years, anyone who has played the Late Phones
according to scale and factoring in the cost of service, is now DOWN A DOCUMENTED AND VERIFIED WHOPPING
$19,539.
This is not "exactly" the impression one gets when one calls the comp. line or checks out their website.
- #355
In this post I am going to conclude what I started in post 389 relative to why the Late Phone Side Plays have sucked this year and historically speaking
as opposed to the comps.(especially his week with their 9-1 record) and Marquees and what if anything can be done about it.
I am going to warn you folks in advance that some of you may find this boring and dry and may not want to read it, as it is going to contain some
pretty theoretical thinking on my part as to how possibly to improve things for NC and improve the overall record of the Late Phone Side Plays.
Also keep in mind that I am not a computer programmer or analyst and thus don't know what is possible and not possible to do.
The first thing which comes to mind is to identify the possible reasons for the discrepancy ins success rate re:The Late Phone Sides as opposed to comps,
Marquees, etc.
The first thing I would do if I was Phil Steele and/or whoever is in charge of the handicapping division and/or who makes the decisions as
to what will be fed into the computer to arrive at the decision for all of the many different types of picks chosen with the various clubs, newsletters, etc.
would be to call in some kind of a systems analyst who also has an outstanding knowledge of football.
Imo the first thing he should do in this case would be to see if the types of data fed into the computer for the Late Phones as opposed to the comps. and Marquees
was exactly the same and if not, why not and what differed.
If there were no differences whatsoever, then the question as to why the discrepancy existed would be a bit more difficult.
On thing I see in this instance is that some of the comps. come from a selective field such as Big Ten Play of the Week, Underdog Comp. of the Week, Big Dog Play
of the Week-even the Early Bird Play is using only a selective criterion, which is expected line movement.
I would be particularly interested in the PowerPlay Comp. to see if the exact data was fed into the computer to arrive at its plays as opposed to those
of Late Phones.
The point here is that for the most part the Late Phone Plays come from wider universe of plays than do some of the comps and Marquees.
The question would be for the analyst would be to decide whether that should make any difference and if so why and how to change it if possible.
If on the other hand, there were different types of data fed into the computer to arrive at the Late Phone Picks as opposed to the comps. and
Marquees, then as I see it, the analyst might possibly have to go back to some of the previous Late Phone picks which lost and with some kind of a trial and error
basis, take some of the date fed into the computer out and/or exchange it with some other data and see if the computer fed out the same plays which
or lost and/or spit out some other plays for that week which won.
If in fact this proved to be true over a statistically significant period of time, and the Late Phones had a higher winning percentage than now, then well
they should use that criterion.
However, while this sound great in theory, it might not work as this thought just came to mind.
The reason for this is that even if my theoretical system worked and changed the losing plays from the past into other plays which won,
there is no guarantee in my model that the picks which had won when subjected to the same criterion would be chosen and its place other
picks would be chosen.
Thus as I see it, using this type of analysis the analyst would have to start from scratch using the new criterion to see what the set of plays would have been
in all of the past sample weeks to see if in fact the winning percentage for the Late Phones won or not.
The best comparison I can think of is chemotherapy which destroys bad cells but also good ones-it is not all that different here.
I could go on but I will spare you as I realize that this is all theoretical, may be easier said than done and may not work in any case.
The obvious main point though is that imo someone a lot more skilled than I has to utilize whatever means he has at his disposal to
try to improve the record of the Late Phone Side Plays especially in College for the simple reason that they are supposed to be the
ones which are supposed to be most successful over time and along the same lines, are the ones which NC relies upon in
its revenue stream as they are the most costly.
In short and for reasons stated here and in post 389, while on the one hand it is great that the comps. have been doing well, on the other hand it doesn't
help NC's as a business very much and imo actually is more of a negative at this juncture.
Thanks to all who read this monstrosity of a post and as always, feel free to offer your own thoughts.
as opposed to the comps.(especially his week with their 9-1 record) and Marquees and what if anything can be done about it.
I am going to warn you folks in advance that some of you may find this boring and dry and may not want to read it, as it is going to contain some
pretty theoretical thinking on my part as to how possibly to improve things for NC and improve the overall record of the Late Phone Side Plays.
Also keep in mind that I am not a computer programmer or analyst and thus don't know what is possible and not possible to do.
The first thing which comes to mind is to identify the possible reasons for the discrepancy ins success rate re:The Late Phone Sides as opposed to comps,
Marquees, etc.
The first thing I would do if I was Phil Steele and/or whoever is in charge of the handicapping division and/or who makes the decisions as
to what will be fed into the computer to arrive at the decision for all of the many different types of picks chosen with the various clubs, newsletters, etc.
would be to call in some kind of a systems analyst who also has an outstanding knowledge of football.
Imo the first thing he should do in this case would be to see if the types of data fed into the computer for the Late Phones as opposed to the comps. and Marquees
was exactly the same and if not, why not and what differed.
If there were no differences whatsoever, then the question as to why the discrepancy existed would be a bit more difficult.
On thing I see in this instance is that some of the comps. come from a selective field such as Big Ten Play of the Week, Underdog Comp. of the Week, Big Dog Play
of the Week-even the Early Bird Play is using only a selective criterion, which is expected line movement.
I would be particularly interested in the PowerPlay Comp. to see if the exact data was fed into the computer to arrive at its plays as opposed to those
of Late Phones.
The point here is that for the most part the Late Phone Plays come from wider universe of plays than do some of the comps and Marquees.
The question would be for the analyst would be to decide whether that should make any difference and if so why and how to change it if possible.
If on the other hand, there were different types of data fed into the computer to arrive at the Late Phone Picks as opposed to the comps. and
Marquees, then as I see it, the analyst might possibly have to go back to some of the previous Late Phone picks which lost and with some kind of a trial and error
basis, take some of the date fed into the computer out and/or exchange it with some other data and see if the computer fed out the same plays which
or lost and/or spit out some other plays for that week which won.
If in fact this proved to be true over a statistically significant period of time, and the Late Phones had a higher winning percentage than now, then well
they should use that criterion.
However, while this sound great in theory, it might not work as this thought just came to mind.
The reason for this is that even if my theoretical system worked and changed the losing plays from the past into other plays which won,
there is no guarantee in my model that the picks which had won when subjected to the same criterion would be chosen and its place other
picks would be chosen.
Thus as I see it, using this type of analysis the analyst would have to start from scratch using the new criterion to see what the set of plays would have been
in all of the past sample weeks to see if in fact the winning percentage for the Late Phones won or not.
The best comparison I can think of is chemotherapy which destroys bad cells but also good ones-it is not all that different here.
I could go on but I will spare you as I realize that this is all theoretical, may be easier said than done and may not work in any case.
The obvious main point though is that imo someone a lot more skilled than I has to utilize whatever means he has at his disposal to
try to improve the record of the Late Phone Side Plays especially in College for the simple reason that they are supposed to be the
ones which are supposed to be most successful over time and along the same lines, are the ones which NC relies upon in
its revenue stream as they are the most costly.
In short and for reasons stated here and in post 389, while on the one hand it is great that the comps. have been doing well, on the other hand it doesn't
help NC's as a business very much and imo actually is more of a negative at this juncture.
Thanks to all who read this monstrosity of a post and as always, feel free to offer your own thoughts.
Here is the 3rd and last post for today as it stands right now.
Ext. 9 we are told that plays split out last night.
Todd tells us that the Monday Night Magic Plays are on a 6-2 run so far.
However for some "strange reason" he does not tell us how the Marquees have done over the same time period.
We are then told about the great records of PowerSweep and PowerPlays with SELECTIVE Categores over SELECTIVE Time frames.
You can decide for yourself whether this constitutes fair and balanced reporting.
Not much else other than the usual Tuesday PowerPlays pump.
THE POWERPLAYS COMP. IS A 4 STAR ON RICE + 11.
Ext.3 Since nothing else is obviously working, NC decides to bring back the FAILED Full Weekly Executive Service another time, which includes
every late Phone, Marquee and in short everything NC puts out.
For a non PS subscriber, the cost is a "mere" $350. lol
Great marketing don't you think-as shown in past 392, they buried any clients they have to the tune of $1558 last week and in the
hole for $423 for the season,and they really think someone is going to shell out $350 or a bit less with their cheesy discounts-good luck!!
Don't worry though-Todd assures us that jus the Late Phone will be a bit cheaper, and that one can find them on page 8 of the PS NewsLetter.
I will let you know what these "great discounted prices" are when PS is posted and/or when Todd announces them tomorrow.
And oh yes before I forget, Todd THREATENS us once again by stating that NEXT year's PW and PowerPlays Newsletters costs 69 today but will be going up
next week-I mean seriously is Phil Steele and/or so demented to think that anyone is really concerned about NEXT year when NC is shitting the bed
this year in the plays which count!!
They should realize than just because Phil Steele and/or apparently other folks at NC live and die this shit 24/7/365, that the overwhelming number of people
out there do not and have a lot more relevant and more things to spend their $69 on than to piss it away on picks a year from now!!
THE EXT. 3 UNDERDOG COMP. OF THE WEEK IS KANSAS + 5 1/2.
Ext. 9 we are told that plays split out last night.
Todd tells us that the Monday Night Magic Plays are on a 6-2 run so far.
However for some "strange reason" he does not tell us how the Marquees have done over the same time period.
We are then told about the great records of PowerSweep and PowerPlays with SELECTIVE Categores over SELECTIVE Time frames.
You can decide for yourself whether this constitutes fair and balanced reporting.
Not much else other than the usual Tuesday PowerPlays pump.
THE POWERPLAYS COMP. IS A 4 STAR ON RICE + 11.
Ext.3 Since nothing else is obviously working, NC decides to bring back the FAILED Full Weekly Executive Service another time, which includes
every late Phone, Marquee and in short everything NC puts out.
For a non PS subscriber, the cost is a "mere" $350. lol
Great marketing don't you think-as shown in past 392, they buried any clients they have to the tune of $1558 last week and in the
hole for $423 for the season,and they really think someone is going to shell out $350 or a bit less with their cheesy discounts-good luck!!
Don't worry though-Todd assures us that jus the Late Phone will be a bit cheaper, and that one can find them on page 8 of the PS NewsLetter.
I will let you know what these "great discounted prices" are when PS is posted and/or when Todd announces them tomorrow.
And oh yes before I forget, Todd THREATENS us once again by stating that NEXT year's PW and PowerPlays Newsletters costs 69 today but will be going up
next week-I mean seriously is Phil Steele and/or so demented to think that anyone is really concerned about NEXT year when NC is shitting the bed
this year in the plays which count!!
They should realize than just because Phil Steele and/or apparently other folks at NC live and die this shit 24/7/365, that the overwhelming number of people
out there do not and have a lot more relevant and more things to spend their $69 on than to piss it away on picks a year from now!!
THE EXT. 3 UNDERDOG COMP. OF THE WEEK IS KANSAS + 5 1/2.
It just dawned on me that since we are at roughly the halfway part of the season, that it is about time that I issued some midterm grades for Northcoast
based on their performance so far in various important categories so far.
One important thing to keep in mind is that the grades given are going to be issued based on a RELATIVE basis to other services rather than an absolute
basis, because if I evaluated NC and for that matter the overwhelming number of services and/or those folks who choose to call themselves
services would fail in the most important categories, the reason being that most do not show a profit and that is being kind.
With that in mind, here are the grades:
ACCURACY OF PICKS GRADE C With a coin 61-60 record or 50.4% winning percentage, which is below the 52.35% winning percentage need to just break even
without even factoring in the cost of service, this record is certainly not anything to write home about.
Again though using the relative ratings, imo it is still a lot better than many services whose winning percentage is in the 40% or so for the season and in
some cases even worse-those services would get D's and F's.
Obviously there are some services doing well which would receive A's or B's.
PRICING GRADE C- Actually for a non Power Sweep subscriber, who doesn't get any discounts as do PS subscriber, I would get NC an F for the simple
reason as I have documented, that the former has shelled out around $4400 in costs of service to hit 50% of the NC Plays.
One could have flipped a coin on these games or for that matter any games and theoretically done as well.
The discounts offered to PS subscribers merely brings the inflated retail prices down to closer to what they should be in the first place.
Again relatively speaking though, there are lots of other services whose prices are a bit lower than those of NC but who also are way below 50%
and conversely services whose pricing is higher, lower or about the same as NC but whose record is better.
HONESTY WITH THEIR RECORD KEEPING GRADE D.
Anyone who has followed NC realizes that their modus operandi is for the most part stressing/recounting the record of those portions of
the many aspects and various services they offer by using very short term and selective time frames to give a very misleading positive impression
as to how they are doing OVERALL, which is the bottom line.
As you can see in recap in post 392 that this is far from the truth-being down around $4400 for the season including the cost of service and closing in
on 20K for the last three and a half years since I started documenting their Late Phone Picks, which are in theory their most important and best picks,
tells the real truth here.
To summarize this, NC lies by omission.
The reason that the grade is not an F is that at least unlike some services, they don't fabricate their records which are sheer bullshit with their made-up 80-90%
or even higher winning percentages.
ADVERTISING GRADE D Well part of this incorporates what I just said above in honesty.
I will say this on their behalf/their point of view, but which is not the way it should be looked at from the consumer point of view:
Whether it is Phil Steele and/or others involved in the marketing, what I said above while sneaky, deceptive and dishonest because of omissions of
important parts of their records, imo it does work to some extent to those who are not wise to the ways of NC and/or who are new, perhaps
even naïve/gullible gamblers and/or is some cases even desperate, and who will reach out to anyone whose record keeping seems to be honest
in an attempt to recoup their losses.
This is a far cry from the known and obvious liars with their made-up 94-7, etc. records-thus if you want to look at from the perspective of how they recount their
records as opposed to most other services, well then I would give them an A. lol
Also to be fair, unlike many services, I give NC for their 2-5 ratings and limited Games of Something as compared to lots of other services
with their billion star locks, Game of a Lifetime, and other bullshit along the same lines.
Not to toot my own horn, but their clever and overall clearly deceptive way of advertising their record is why I do what I do, namely because the deceptions of
NC are not as obvious as the of lots of other services for reasons stated.
The other aspect of their advertising, their weekly promotions, is right along the same lines.
As I have said many times before, the biggest deception with the NC promos is that their "discounts" are offered from retail pricing which have
no basis to reality and to what others are charging for the same.
An average of $200 a week or higher when there are Games of Something going, the latter which retails for $75-$100, is simply not realistic and
is out of touch with reality with what other services charge, some of whom have much better records this season than NC.
Yes PS subscribers do get discounts from these rates, but even so imo these are irrelevant because many folks want the NC Late Phone Plays
and don't want to be distracted by seeing/being tempted to play some additional game picks in the publication which are not Late Phone
Plays.
Also, I find their pricey Weekly Full Executive Service(retail value from around $350 or higher when a big play is going), which includes not only the Late Phones
but also the Marquees and the various ratings of each one and the same for opinions, a bit insulting and essentially nothing more than
money gouging because it asks the potential client to shell out more money for more picks.
As any experienced gambler knows, playing too many games DECREASES one's chances of winning rather than increasing them.
Another problem I have with their promotions is that they have too many different ones going in a given week.
These "daily specials" are at times confusing and sometimes overlapping and conflicting and especially so when the discounts are offered all dependent on
whether one is a PS subscriber or not and for how many years.
Also imo their advertising is also ineffective because over the many years it is not very creative and essentially never changes.
In essence we hear the same mantra day after day, week after week, year after year re: the pricing all tied to PS subscriptions.
There is ZERO creativity with these and to anyone who has followed them for a period of time like me, finds them to be repetitive, boring
unproductive to trying to get people to but their picks.
Imo just about anyone who calls he comp. line just tunes out until Todd finally gets to all that counts, the comp. pick, which is all that most folks
want in the first place.
Anyways I could go on, but why bother-I think you get my overall take here.
Looking back at what I just wrote, my midterm grades for this season are in reality what they are for just about every mid term and for that matter every season
because with few exceptions, the "Some remains the same" with the aspects of NC I have focused on.
If I was going to write a book and grade various sports services including NC using the criterion above and basing the grade on above and
relative to all of the other services out there, I would give them a GRADE C.
If on the other hand, I evaluated NC and most other services on an absolute basis only over time, ie simply as to whether they were profitable or not when the cost
of services was factored in, they would get an F because they have not been-it is that simple.
based on their performance so far in various important categories so far.
One important thing to keep in mind is that the grades given are going to be issued based on a RELATIVE basis to other services rather than an absolute
basis, because if I evaluated NC and for that matter the overwhelming number of services and/or those folks who choose to call themselves
services would fail in the most important categories, the reason being that most do not show a profit and that is being kind.
With that in mind, here are the grades:
ACCURACY OF PICKS GRADE C With a coin 61-60 record or 50.4% winning percentage, which is below the 52.35% winning percentage need to just break even
without even factoring in the cost of service, this record is certainly not anything to write home about.
Again though using the relative ratings, imo it is still a lot better than many services whose winning percentage is in the 40% or so for the season and in
some cases even worse-those services would get D's and F's.
Obviously there are some services doing well which would receive A's or B's.
PRICING GRADE C- Actually for a non Power Sweep subscriber, who doesn't get any discounts as do PS subscriber, I would get NC an F for the simple
reason as I have documented, that the former has shelled out around $4400 in costs of service to hit 50% of the NC Plays.
One could have flipped a coin on these games or for that matter any games and theoretically done as well.
The discounts offered to PS subscribers merely brings the inflated retail prices down to closer to what they should be in the first place.
Again relatively speaking though, there are lots of other services whose prices are a bit lower than those of NC but who also are way below 50%
and conversely services whose pricing is higher, lower or about the same as NC but whose record is better.
HONESTY WITH THEIR RECORD KEEPING GRADE D.
Anyone who has followed NC realizes that their modus operandi is for the most part stressing/recounting the record of those portions of
the many aspects and various services they offer by using very short term and selective time frames to give a very misleading positive impression
as to how they are doing OVERALL, which is the bottom line.
As you can see in recap in post 392 that this is far from the truth-being down around $4400 for the season including the cost of service and closing in
on 20K for the last three and a half years since I started documenting their Late Phone Picks, which are in theory their most important and best picks,
tells the real truth here.
To summarize this, NC lies by omission.
The reason that the grade is not an F is that at least unlike some services, they don't fabricate their records which are sheer bullshit with their made-up 80-90%
or even higher winning percentages.
ADVERTISING GRADE D Well part of this incorporates what I just said above in honesty.
I will say this on their behalf/their point of view, but which is not the way it should be looked at from the consumer point of view:
Whether it is Phil Steele and/or others involved in the marketing, what I said above while sneaky, deceptive and dishonest because of omissions of
important parts of their records, imo it does work to some extent to those who are not wise to the ways of NC and/or who are new, perhaps
even naïve/gullible gamblers and/or is some cases even desperate, and who will reach out to anyone whose record keeping seems to be honest
in an attempt to recoup their losses.
This is a far cry from the known and obvious liars with their made-up 94-7, etc. records-thus if you want to look at from the perspective of how they recount their
records as opposed to most other services, well then I would give them an A. lol
Also to be fair, unlike many services, I give NC for their 2-5 ratings and limited Games of Something as compared to lots of other services
with their billion star locks, Game of a Lifetime, and other bullshit along the same lines.
Not to toot my own horn, but their clever and overall clearly deceptive way of advertising their record is why I do what I do, namely because the deceptions of
NC are not as obvious as the of lots of other services for reasons stated.
The other aspect of their advertising, their weekly promotions, is right along the same lines.
As I have said many times before, the biggest deception with the NC promos is that their "discounts" are offered from retail pricing which have
no basis to reality and to what others are charging for the same.
An average of $200 a week or higher when there are Games of Something going, the latter which retails for $75-$100, is simply not realistic and
is out of touch with reality with what other services charge, some of whom have much better records this season than NC.
Yes PS subscribers do get discounts from these rates, but even so imo these are irrelevant because many folks want the NC Late Phone Plays
and don't want to be distracted by seeing/being tempted to play some additional game picks in the publication which are not Late Phone
Plays.
Also, I find their pricey Weekly Full Executive Service(retail value from around $350 or higher when a big play is going), which includes not only the Late Phones
but also the Marquees and the various ratings of each one and the same for opinions, a bit insulting and essentially nothing more than
money gouging because it asks the potential client to shell out more money for more picks.
As any experienced gambler knows, playing too many games DECREASES one's chances of winning rather than increasing them.
Another problem I have with their promotions is that they have too many different ones going in a given week.
These "daily specials" are at times confusing and sometimes overlapping and conflicting and especially so when the discounts are offered all dependent on
whether one is a PS subscriber or not and for how many years.
Also imo their advertising is also ineffective because over the many years it is not very creative and essentially never changes.
In essence we hear the same mantra day after day, week after week, year after year re: the pricing all tied to PS subscriptions.
There is ZERO creativity with these and to anyone who has followed them for a period of time like me, finds them to be repetitive, boring
unproductive to trying to get people to but their picks.
Imo just about anyone who calls he comp. line just tunes out until Todd finally gets to all that counts, the comp. pick, which is all that most folks
want in the first place.
Anyways I could go on, but why bother-I think you get my overall take here.
Looking back at what I just wrote, my midterm grades for this season are in reality what they are for just about every mid term and for that matter every season
because with few exceptions, the "Some remains the same" with the aspects of NC I have focused on.
If I was going to write a book and grade various sports services including NC using the criterion above and basing the grade on above and
relative to all of the other services out there, I would give them a GRADE C.
If on the other hand, I evaluated NC and most other services on an absolute basis only over time, ie simply as to whether they were profitable or not when the cost
of services was factored in, they would get an F because they have not been-it is that simple.
Ext. 9-Judging by the message today, it looks like at least for this week NC woke up and realized that their current prices are nor working, and thus
they decided to institute what they call "Turn Back the Clock Week" pricing, which means that a non PS subscriber can get the Saturday Side
Plays for $50 and the Sunday NFL Side plays for $50 or both of them combined for $75.
It is called "Turn Back the Clock Week" as these are the same prices which existed back in 1982.
Oh yes the totals will cost and additional $25.
I actually give NC credit for reasonable pricing for this week.
However, sadly if history holds, expect this "Dinner Special" for today to be a one time only deal with pricing returning to their much higher
prices next weekend.
Imo there are two reasons they are running this special:
1) Not many people have been buying the Late Phones, meaning that the economic forces of supply and demand are at work here, resulting
in the cheaper cost.
2) NC obviously hopes that lots of folks will buy into this special with the expectations that IF(and a big IF), that if they can turn a profit for a change this week
(seven out of nine losing weeks so far), that people will be more than willing to pay the normal price next week and for weeks to come.
Personally imo I think they should keep this week's prices in effect this week for the rest of the season win or lose, but that is obviously a dream.
What would really be better and more important is if NC ran a "Turn Back the Clock" Special which meant turning back the clock to a time
in the distant past to present, ie from a time where NC actually won a lot more consistently to now where winning is the exception
rather than the rule!!!
No changes on ext. 3.
they decided to institute what they call "Turn Back the Clock Week" pricing, which means that a non PS subscriber can get the Saturday Side
Plays for $50 and the Sunday NFL Side plays for $50 or both of them combined for $75.
It is called "Turn Back the Clock Week" as these are the same prices which existed back in 1982.
Oh yes the totals will cost and additional $25.
I actually give NC credit for reasonable pricing for this week.
However, sadly if history holds, expect this "Dinner Special" for today to be a one time only deal with pricing returning to their much higher
prices next weekend.
Imo there are two reasons they are running this special:
1) Not many people have been buying the Late Phones, meaning that the economic forces of supply and demand are at work here, resulting
in the cheaper cost.
2) NC obviously hopes that lots of folks will buy into this special with the expectations that IF(and a big IF), that if they can turn a profit for a change this week
(seven out of nine losing weeks so far), that people will be more than willing to pay the normal price next week and for weeks to come.
Personally imo I think they should keep this week's prices in effect this week for the rest of the season win or lose, but that is obviously a dream.
What would really be better and more important is if NC ran a "Turn Back the Clock" Special which meant turning back the clock to a time
in the distant past to present, ie from a time where NC actually won a lot more consistently to now where winning is the exception
rather than the rule!!!
No changes on ext. 3.
ANYWAYS THE #2 ECONOMY CLUB Play OF THE WEEK IS TULANE - 10 1/2.
Thanks for posting this Buzz Kill.
That said, I listened to about 10 minutes of this stuff, because that is all I could take.
My overall opinion of the mountains of stats, trends and angle has not changed.
What I mean is while on the one hand the amount of information compiled is quite impressive, imo about 90%+ of it is for the football purist
only and has very little to do with who covers the spread on a given Saturday or Sunday.
If it did, then you would find Phil Steele doing a lot better with his own picks and more importantly with the Northcoast Late Phones, which are hitting 50%
this season and also historically so.
In short as I see it, they are way too many other things which can and will happen in football games, some of which are intangible, that can't
be quantified and which have a direct bearing on who covers the spread.
I said in an earlier post today that NC needs to call in some kind of systems analyst to try to identify why the Late Phones do and have done so poorly
with all of the effort put it and to try to find the data most relevant and keep it while at the same time eliminating a lot of the worthless crap
contained in this video and similar stuff.
Again I am not a computer/systems analyst, but my gut feeling is that if Phil Steele/NC ever took the suggestions I have offered seriously today,
whoever did it would have his work cut out simply because there are so many stats trends and angles compiled.
If the old saying/adage that "Too many cooks spoil the broth" is true, then as regards this matter and to change the saying to fit,
I say "Too much Steele clutter makes the Late Phone picks sputter."
How to improve NC overall.
I know that I have been foaming at the mouth the last few days with my long posts and my sincere thanks to those who took the time to read it.
This post will address some of my concerns I mentioned yesterday and how to possibly fix them.
They are not in any special order but rather what floats into my mind as I write this.
1) Improve the quality and consistency of the Late Phone Picks, which are regarded as the most important and most costly.
Whether it be by calling in some kind of systems analyst to streamline the data being fed into the computer or by some other means, this must be fixed.
Folks are not interested in buying/playing 50% picks or worse.
2) Streamline and clarify the existing and confusing rating system into one.
For example, with the existing rating system I am a bit confused as to how the strength of a Triple Marquee, Double Marquee or regular Marquee
compares with that of the star rated plays of the Late Phones.
The same goes for top opinions(which I assume are the same as a single Marquee but am not sure).
What overall ratings do regular opinions, comps and if had to pick carry?
To go further I would like to know what standardized ratings such items as Economy Club and Big Dog Club Plays.
Also, as an example I would like if a four star rated play in PowerSweep means the same as a four star rated play in the Late Phones.
How about what a four star rated PowerPlays means as compared to a four star Power Sweep Play and in relation to the Late Phones?
In short as I see it, there is mass confusion and imo when all of the picks by NC each week in each of the many different categories they have.
They should carry a star rating say from 1 to 10(decimals would be ok also such as 4.7, 9.1, etc). to let folks know how strong NC regards each pick
in a standardized fashion relative to everything they are putting out that week in terms of the overall confidence they have based on any criterion
that they wanted to.
3) Until/if/when their overall performance improves according to presently using the Late Phones as the criterion or under my proposed
system the standardized ratings, I would keep prices a bit lower than they are and closer to the "Roll back the clock prices" they are using this week.
Most people do not want to shell out good money(as I stated yesterday, even with the discounts offered for PS subscribers yesterday, their pricing
at best is nothing to write home about).
4) Be more honest in their slick advertising which for the most part highlights only what has been winning out of the many types of picks
they can pick from and over selective time frames.
At least be honest and state that other aspects of their service are not doing so well but they are working hard to improve.
Check out post 392 for more on this.
5) Try being more creative in their advertising.
Yes stuff like "rolling back the clock prices to 1982," is one step in the right direction.
However imo hearing the same mantra of having Late Phone Service tied to one, two year and even three years subscription to PowerSweep/PowerPlays
is a bit tired, tedious and boring, and someone needs to come up with something new to ignite some interest.
Imo most people who call the comp. line just tune out most of what Todd says in the way of promotions because it is so predictable and never changes.
Although I know NC would not agree with this, I wouldn't have any promotions tied to PowerSweep/PowerPlays-either they are interested in the mounds
of data contained therein or they are not.
Trying to entice them with anything other than the pricing of the publications themselves for me says that NC doesn't have the confidence to let the
publications stand on their own merits.
Along the same lines, even though I kid about their "daily dinner specials," actually I find these weak and unproductive.
Many of them seem forced and contrived and out of desperation in an attempt to get people to buy something from them.
I have no problem if they want to have a couple of options, but imo they should be the same each and every day of the week, rather
than be the confusing, conflicting and at times overlapping promotions which prevail now.
6) Imo unlike now NC should some compassion when they have a bad Saturday, Sunday and/or overall bad weekend.
It bothers me that on days when they lose, all we get is a quick summary, expression of disappoint about the picks
but with no indication of empathy for those who lost and/or giving away a pick or picks for free to make up for it
but rather moving quickly to the pump for that particular day.
Anyways, I have other things to do rather than to try think up some other matters for them to work on(about which I am sure there are some).
Sorry if what I said sounded like the theoretical talking points of the candidates for POTUS, but this in essence is how I see matters.
As I did yesterday, I will send NC an email of this for them to consider.
Once again thanks to those who took the time out of their busy days to read all of this, and it goes without saying any comments you have
are always welcomed.
I know that I have been foaming at the mouth the last few days with my long posts and my sincere thanks to those who took the time to read it.
This post will address some of my concerns I mentioned yesterday and how to possibly fix them.
They are not in any special order but rather what floats into my mind as I write this.
1) Improve the quality and consistency of the Late Phone Picks, which are regarded as the most important and most costly.
Whether it be by calling in some kind of systems analyst to streamline the data being fed into the computer or by some other means, this must be fixed.
Folks are not interested in buying/playing 50% picks or worse.
2) Streamline and clarify the existing and confusing rating system into one.
For example, with the existing rating system I am a bit confused as to how the strength of a Triple Marquee, Double Marquee or regular Marquee
compares with that of the star rated plays of the Late Phones.
The same goes for top opinions(which I assume are the same as a single Marquee but am not sure).
What overall ratings do regular opinions, comps and if had to pick carry?
To go further I would like to know what standardized ratings such items as Economy Club and Big Dog Club Plays.
Also, as an example I would like if a four star rated play in PowerSweep means the same as a four star rated play in the Late Phones.
How about what a four star rated PowerPlays means as compared to a four star Power Sweep Play and in relation to the Late Phones?
In short as I see it, there is mass confusion and imo when all of the picks by NC each week in each of the many different categories they have.
They should carry a star rating say from 1 to 10(decimals would be ok also such as 4.7, 9.1, etc). to let folks know how strong NC regards each pick
in a standardized fashion relative to everything they are putting out that week in terms of the overall confidence they have based on any criterion
that they wanted to.
3) Until/if/when their overall performance improves according to presently using the Late Phones as the criterion or under my proposed
system the standardized ratings, I would keep prices a bit lower than they are and closer to the "Roll back the clock prices" they are using this week.
Most people do not want to shell out good money(as I stated yesterday, even with the discounts offered for PS subscribers yesterday, their pricing
at best is nothing to write home about).
4) Be more honest in their slick advertising which for the most part highlights only what has been winning out of the many types of picks
they can pick from and over selective time frames.
At least be honest and state that other aspects of their service are not doing so well but they are working hard to improve.
Check out post 392 for more on this.
5) Try being more creative in their advertising.
Yes stuff like "rolling back the clock prices to 1982," is one step in the right direction.
However imo hearing the same mantra of having Late Phone Service tied to one, two year and even three years subscription to PowerSweep/PowerPlays
is a bit tired, tedious and boring, and someone needs to come up with something new to ignite some interest.
Imo most people who call the comp. line just tune out most of what Todd says in the way of promotions because it is so predictable and never changes.
Although I know NC would not agree with this, I wouldn't have any promotions tied to PowerSweep/PowerPlays-either they are interested in the mounds
of data contained therein or they are not.
Trying to entice them with anything other than the pricing of the publications themselves for me says that NC doesn't have the confidence to let the
publications stand on their own merits.
Along the same lines, even though I kid about their "daily dinner specials," actually I find these weak and unproductive.
Many of them seem forced and contrived and out of desperation in an attempt to get people to buy something from them.
I have no problem if they want to have a couple of options, but imo they should be the same each and every day of the week, rather
than be the confusing, conflicting and at times overlapping promotions which prevail now.
6) Imo unlike now NC should some compassion when they have a bad Saturday, Sunday and/or overall bad weekend.
It bothers me that on days when they lose, all we get is a quick summary, expression of disappoint about the picks
but with no indication of empathy for those who lost and/or giving away a pick or picks for free to make up for it
but rather moving quickly to the pump for that particular day.
Anyways, I have other things to do rather than to try think up some other matters for them to work on(about which I am sure there are some).
Sorry if what I said sounded like the theoretical talking points of the candidates for POTUS, but this in essence is how I see matters.
As I did yesterday, I will send NC an email of this for them to consider.
Once again thanks to those who took the time out of their busy days to read all of this, and it goes without saying any comments you have
are always welcomed.
