Ok-here goes with the last post of the day which will address Cheddar's opinion as posted in #348 that the stock market are not that different.
Again I stated earlier that is very important that you read the contens of the links I posted in #353 to fully understand my feelings as I am not going to
rehash what is stated and with which I fully agree.
To quickly summarize for those who don't want to read the links, the contentions are that 90%(imo more) of the people who gamble on sports over time
lose and that for reasons stated, one has a much better chance of succeeding over time in the stock market as long as the money is invested in good
proven companies and using a long term perspective.
Obviously this rules out penny stocks which by and large equate to pure gambling as well as buying put and call options, where desired results must occur
during a limited time frame to be successful-if not one loses-it is that simple.
As the articles say and/or imply, sports gambling to a great extent revolves around instant gratification mentality, that is betting on a game or games
and knowing within a few hours if you won or lost.
I am sure that there are lots of folks who would dispute that and say that they are betting on games to win over the long haul and don't have the
instant gratification mentality.
To that I say that imo it may be true for some folks but not the overwhelming who gamble just as much to get their highs when they win(and lows
when they lose) as for winning actual money-in short imo in general there is a widespread psychological atmosphere which surrounds betting on sports.
As one who has both gambled on sports and invested in the market for many years, I don't think in general that the same instant gratification
mentality applies to the mature and experienced investor, who looks at matters with a much longer perspective and attitude.
Imo this in itself gives the advantage to the investor over many sports gamblers who are not so patient and who will resort to such things as chasing their
losses and other impulsive actions which will just did the hole deeper-in short and to be blunt, no money management.
In addition and very importantly, as both the articles state and what I stated yesterday, money lost on betting on a game is lost forever whereas money
lost on an investment is not lost or won for that matter until it is sold-huge difference to say the least.
That is all that I am going to say about sports betting vs the stock market per se as it highlights what I deem to be the most important.
Again I suggest you read the two articles for more points and explanations.
As far as the difference between using a sports service as opposed to using an investment services as a tool, I am going to make a few points using
Northcoast as an example because I know so much about them from so many years of having followed them as well as documenting their record for the
last three and an half years, and comparing them to my own investment firm which I have used for a number of years.
Keep in mind that what I am going to say about NC imo does apply to most sports services.
First of all the mindset of NC as a business is to sell picks and information out of the zillion types or procucts they peddle.
I am not going to rehash all of the reasons why I disagree with their total modus operandi, as by this time anyone who has read my posts
here over the last few months knows where and why I am coming from.
Basically imo NC is a mass marketing operation which relies on saying anything which will get people to buy their picks while leaving out or at least
minimizing anything negative which will detract from this-this involves their record keeping, promotions, and overall hype-you all now how I view this
if you have read my previous posts.
Along the same lines, NC plays to the instant gratification mode of thinking, which they view as prevalent among most gamblers.
I can't remember the last time they pumped their Yearly Executive Service which goes for around $4500-
it goes along with the instant gratification weekly or even daily mentality in addition to the fact that virtually no one is going to
shell out $4500 on the spots for picks which lose or at best break even most of the time.
Also, when they lose, I have never once heard Todd, Phil Steele(who did the comp. line for a long time) or any of the other guys who have done the comp.
line over the years ever show any empathy for those who lost.
At best we hear the word "disappointing" when they have a bad day or weekend, and then immediately they start up with the next
pump for upcoming action for the day or week.
With my investment firm(not to brag buy one of the highest rated and most consistent ones over time), it is entirely different.
Their focus is on the long term with a ZERO instant gratification mentality, and it has paid off quite well for me.
Just like sports services they do obviously have some losers, and will sell if the reasons they purchased a stock in the first place.
At that point they will either buy something else or put the proceeds in a money market until they are ready tp buy something else.
In addition they have a personal investment set up for me based on my overall philosophy and risk taking.
I also have a personal adviser with whom I consult periodically to discuss matters, possible changes, etc.
With my investment firm the philosophy is diversification to minimize losses in case a particular investment turns bad-no zillion star can miss locks here. lol
To be fair though to NC at least they have a fair rating system from 205 with their rated plays and that's it.
One big and important difference though between my investment firm(or any good one) is that they use diversification to limit risk whereas NC
uses their diversification( a ton of separate types of picks, clubs, newsletters, etc.) not to limit risk but rather only to put the odds in their favor so
that they can find something to brag about if it wins-big difference for sure.
Also, unlike a sports service, I get a monthly statement from my investment firm which shows the new balance, the previous balance,
how every stock has done during the month and changes made.
Unlike Phil Steele/NC when they have a bad month with their picks,(and it does happen on occasion), my stock statement
doesn't focus on /brag about ONLY the stocks which have gone up during the time frame but clearly shows what has gone down and the entire picture.
Listen to Todd on comp. line sometime and you get an entirely different modus operandi which in a slick, deceptive and overall dishonest way focuses basically
on the winning stuff only with the hopes and expectations that it will fly, and folks will conclude that they are winning big time overall with just about everything, which
of course is a sheer lie and bullshit, which I have documented over the last three and a half years and a lot longer than that in reality.
Yes it is true that I pay my investment firm a total of 1% to manage my portfolio(twice a year at .5 % with the balance of the portfolio on given dates
used to determine their fee).
The fee isn't chicken feed when one has a large account as I do, but then again they have produced great results which make the fee in comparison tiny and
overall well worth it.
Compare that with NC, which has lost folks around 22K for a non PS subscriber over the last three and a half years which includes roughly about $18000 paid in fees.
With no fees considered, they have still lost around 4K with their Late Phone picks over that time-that in itself speaks volumes.
I could go on, but there is no point, as I have stated what I deem to be most important here and why my bets are tiny in comparison to what I could bet
if I wanted to.
In short at this point in my life I would rather invest most of significant and available money in the stock market with a highly respected investment service
where the odds are with me than with gambling "investing" it in sports gambling where I have a 90% or so chance of losing over the long haul
whether I do it on my own, with the overwhelming number of generally recognized sports services or those who are simply everyday folks
who choose to call themselves sports service or a combination of both.
Once again thanks to all who took the trouble to read this dissertation, and as always, feel to disagree and/or add any commentary which you deem to be relevant.
