MARK FOX
Matchup: Saint vs. Colts
Pick: COLTS -4.5 (-110)
Analysis: In this 2010 Super Bowl, lay the points with the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS!!!
The COLTS are 7-2-1 ATS in their L10 overall games
The Colts are 6-2 ATS in their L8 playoff games
The Colts are 5-2 ATS in their L7 playoff games as a favorite
The Colts are 5-0 ATS in their L5 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0
The Colts are 5-0 ATS in their L5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0
The Colts are 3-0-1 ATS in their L4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
The Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their L6 games vs. a team with a winning record
The Colts are 6-0-2 ATS in their L8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
The Colts are 9-1-1 ATS in their L11 games on grass
The Colts are 7-1-1 ATS in their L9 games as a favorite
The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their L6 games following a ATS win
The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their L5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game
The Colts are 8-2-1 ATS in their L11 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
The Colts are 15-5-2 ATS in their L22 games following a SU win
The NEW ORLEANS SAINTS are 1-6 ATS in their L7 overall games
The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their L5 playoff games
The Saints are 1-3-1 ATS in their L5 games as an underdog
The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their L5 games following a ATS loss
The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their L6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their L4 games following a SU win
The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their L5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
In their L3 matchups, the COLTS are a PERFECT 3-0 SU & ATS vs. the Saints (41-10 in '07, 27-14 in '06 & 55-21 in '03)!!!
SUPER BOWL XLIV Props!!
WILL BOTH TEAMS MAKE 33 YARD OR LONGER FIELD GOALS?
YES (+190)
REGGIE BUSH (NO) FIRST RECEPTION
Over 5.5 (-110)
PEYTON MANNING (IND) FIRST RUSHING ATTEMPT
Over 0.5 (+250)
SHORTEST TD OF GAME
Over 1.5 (+130)
Matchup: Saint vs. Colts
Pick: COLTS -4.5 (-110)
Analysis: In this 2010 Super Bowl, lay the points with the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS!!!
The COLTS are 7-2-1 ATS in their L10 overall games
The Colts are 6-2 ATS in their L8 playoff games
The Colts are 5-2 ATS in their L7 playoff games as a favorite
The Colts are 5-0 ATS in their L5 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0
The Colts are 5-0 ATS in their L5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0
The Colts are 3-0-1 ATS in their L4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
The Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their L6 games vs. a team with a winning record
The Colts are 6-0-2 ATS in their L8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
The Colts are 9-1-1 ATS in their L11 games on grass
The Colts are 7-1-1 ATS in their L9 games as a favorite
The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their L6 games following a ATS win
The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their L5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game
The Colts are 8-2-1 ATS in their L11 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
The Colts are 15-5-2 ATS in their L22 games following a SU win
The NEW ORLEANS SAINTS are 1-6 ATS in their L7 overall games
The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their L5 playoff games
The Saints are 1-3-1 ATS in their L5 games as an underdog
The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their L5 games following a ATS loss
The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their L6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their L4 games following a SU win
The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their L5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
In their L3 matchups, the COLTS are a PERFECT 3-0 SU & ATS vs. the Saints (41-10 in '07, 27-14 in '06 & 55-21 in '03)!!!
SUPER BOWL XLIV Props!!
WILL BOTH TEAMS MAKE 33 YARD OR LONGER FIELD GOALS?
YES (+190)
REGGIE BUSH (NO) FIRST RECEPTION
Over 5.5 (-110)
PEYTON MANNING (IND) FIRST RUSHING ATTEMPT
Over 0.5 (+250)
SHORTEST TD OF GAME
Over 1.5 (+130)
RANDALL THE HANDLE
New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts
Making a case for either side in this one would not be difficult. For the first time since 1993, when Buffalo met Dallas in Super Bowl XXVII, a pair of No. 1 seeds has made it to football’s grandest stage. Each team is littered with outstanding players but without doubt, quarterbacks Peyton Manning of the Colts and Drew Brees of the Saints are the puppeteers of their respective squads. To no one’s surprise, this exceptional duo finished first and second respectively in MVP voting this year. Rather than list the attributes and statistics of both guys, it is safe to say that both are elite.
Brees will guide New Orleans to its first ever appearance in the Super Bowl. History would indicate that to be a problem. Of the 25 first time participants, only seven went on to victory and of the seven, four were facing opponents also making their debuts. In addition, the past four first-time winners all had a common denominator that is not in the Saints repertoire. The Bears, Ravens and Buccaneers all had suffocating defenses and all had allowed the fewest points in the NFL in their respective championship seasons. The Giants allowed the second-fewest points and yards. It should be noted that New Orleans’ defence ranked an unsettling 25th this year. Not only have the Colts been here before, they’ve actually been right here before as they won Super Bowl XLI just three seasons ago on this very field. Ask any player or coach who has gone through it and all will concur that having experienced this mammoth event is a distinct advantage.
As if the Colts needed an advantage. Under the leadership of Manning, Indianapolis has been a contending team over the past decade or so. Heading into the final two weeks of this campaign, the Colts were on a record 23-game win steak dating back to final eight games of 2008. It may have continued if not for management’s decision to rest starters in Indy’s final two contests this season, having secured the top seed. Winning three in a row in this league is challenging. Winning twenty-three straight is absurd. The Colts have an underrated defence, a good pass rush and a dangerous offence. With Manning at the helm, we’ve seen the Colts operate with surgical like precision. They are more than capable of defeating any team in this league at any time. A win here would not surprise anybody.
Football fans have short memories. There is a “what have you done for me lately’ mentality that sometimes can cloud judgment. After a 13-0 start, the Saints finished the season poorly and were fortunate to get by the Vikings two weeks ago. Indianapolis was impressive in its two playoff victories but let’s not forget that those wins came against a pair of 9-7 teams. Both the fifth-seeded Ravens and sixth-seeded Jets were quite fortunate to even be participating in the post season. Both were teams that relied more on defence than offence and once the potent Colts found a lead, the offensive ineptitude of both foes allowed the Colts to coast to the final gun. Since the league went to seeding the top six teams in each conference, no team in either the AFC or NFC has won the Super Bowl without defeating at least one team that won 10 or more games in the regular season and no AFC representative had reached the Super Bowl without beating at least one division winner.
The Saints, by comparison, had to go through a more traditional path to qualify for this game, having knocked off the No. 4-seeded Cardinals (10-6) and the No. 2-seeded Vikings (12-4). New Orleans topped the league in scoring with 510 points. It also had the top-ranked offensive unit with 404 yards per game. With its No. 1 ranked passing game and No. 6 ranked running game, the Saints were the only playoff team to rank in top 10 in both categories. Conversely, the Colts only averaged 3.4 yards per rushing attempt, making them dead last in the entire league.
Clearly, both offences are capable of scoring and logic would dictate that defence will be the difference maker. While the Colts are generally perceived as the stronger stop unit, much of that perception stems from recent memory and that might be a mistake. While the Colts were stopping Joe Flacco and rookie Mark Sanchez, the Saints were knocking off the likes of Kurt Warner and Brett Favre. Favre was able to move the ball but he took a bashing while doing so. The Colts were 18th overall on defence this season and while that may be a higher ranking than the Saints, a look at Indy’s opponents may illustrate a skewed standing. Indy’s schedule was filled with offensively challenged teams that included the Jets, Rams, Bills, Broncos, Niners, Seahawks and Jaguars. Against the proficient offences of Houston and New England, Indianapolis gave up 400 yards of offence to the Texans and nearly 500 to the Patriots, in addition to a combined 61 points. If that pair presented such problems, there is no telling what the Saints are capable of with their array of playmakers. Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is no stranger to Peyton Manning. Having coached against the prolific quarterback with the Bills, Titans and Jaguars, Williams has had the challenging task of limiting No. 18. on many occasions.. He is well aware of the various changes required throughout the game as Manning is far too savvy to not figure out a sole defensive plan. Expect a mix of packages and New Orleans to play their aggressive, ball-hawking style. The Colts defensive unit could be without one of their key members as DE Dwight Freeney has a very wonky ankle. Under normal circumstances, Drew Brees is difficult to hit and with Freeney out or limited, it allows Brees and his offence to free up plays that may not have been available against a healthy Freeney.
This one has the makings of a classic and from where we sit, this championship is clearly up for grabs. With New Orleans’ abilities and significant points being offered, the newcomer Saints warrant our endorsement.
TAKING: New Orleans +4½ RISKING: 2.14 units to win 2
New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts
Making a case for either side in this one would not be difficult. For the first time since 1993, when Buffalo met Dallas in Super Bowl XXVII, a pair of No. 1 seeds has made it to football’s grandest stage. Each team is littered with outstanding players but without doubt, quarterbacks Peyton Manning of the Colts and Drew Brees of the Saints are the puppeteers of their respective squads. To no one’s surprise, this exceptional duo finished first and second respectively in MVP voting this year. Rather than list the attributes and statistics of both guys, it is safe to say that both are elite.
Brees will guide New Orleans to its first ever appearance in the Super Bowl. History would indicate that to be a problem. Of the 25 first time participants, only seven went on to victory and of the seven, four were facing opponents also making their debuts. In addition, the past four first-time winners all had a common denominator that is not in the Saints repertoire. The Bears, Ravens and Buccaneers all had suffocating defenses and all had allowed the fewest points in the NFL in their respective championship seasons. The Giants allowed the second-fewest points and yards. It should be noted that New Orleans’ defence ranked an unsettling 25th this year. Not only have the Colts been here before, they’ve actually been right here before as they won Super Bowl XLI just three seasons ago on this very field. Ask any player or coach who has gone through it and all will concur that having experienced this mammoth event is a distinct advantage.
As if the Colts needed an advantage. Under the leadership of Manning, Indianapolis has been a contending team over the past decade or so. Heading into the final two weeks of this campaign, the Colts were on a record 23-game win steak dating back to final eight games of 2008. It may have continued if not for management’s decision to rest starters in Indy’s final two contests this season, having secured the top seed. Winning three in a row in this league is challenging. Winning twenty-three straight is absurd. The Colts have an underrated defence, a good pass rush and a dangerous offence. With Manning at the helm, we’ve seen the Colts operate with surgical like precision. They are more than capable of defeating any team in this league at any time. A win here would not surprise anybody.
Football fans have short memories. There is a “what have you done for me lately’ mentality that sometimes can cloud judgment. After a 13-0 start, the Saints finished the season poorly and were fortunate to get by the Vikings two weeks ago. Indianapolis was impressive in its two playoff victories but let’s not forget that those wins came against a pair of 9-7 teams. Both the fifth-seeded Ravens and sixth-seeded Jets were quite fortunate to even be participating in the post season. Both were teams that relied more on defence than offence and once the potent Colts found a lead, the offensive ineptitude of both foes allowed the Colts to coast to the final gun. Since the league went to seeding the top six teams in each conference, no team in either the AFC or NFC has won the Super Bowl without defeating at least one team that won 10 or more games in the regular season and no AFC representative had reached the Super Bowl without beating at least one division winner.
The Saints, by comparison, had to go through a more traditional path to qualify for this game, having knocked off the No. 4-seeded Cardinals (10-6) and the No. 2-seeded Vikings (12-4). New Orleans topped the league in scoring with 510 points. It also had the top-ranked offensive unit with 404 yards per game. With its No. 1 ranked passing game and No. 6 ranked running game, the Saints were the only playoff team to rank in top 10 in both categories. Conversely, the Colts only averaged 3.4 yards per rushing attempt, making them dead last in the entire league.
Clearly, both offences are capable of scoring and logic would dictate that defence will be the difference maker. While the Colts are generally perceived as the stronger stop unit, much of that perception stems from recent memory and that might be a mistake. While the Colts were stopping Joe Flacco and rookie Mark Sanchez, the Saints were knocking off the likes of Kurt Warner and Brett Favre. Favre was able to move the ball but he took a bashing while doing so. The Colts were 18th overall on defence this season and while that may be a higher ranking than the Saints, a look at Indy’s opponents may illustrate a skewed standing. Indy’s schedule was filled with offensively challenged teams that included the Jets, Rams, Bills, Broncos, Niners, Seahawks and Jaguars. Against the proficient offences of Houston and New England, Indianapolis gave up 400 yards of offence to the Texans and nearly 500 to the Patriots, in addition to a combined 61 points. If that pair presented such problems, there is no telling what the Saints are capable of with their array of playmakers. Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is no stranger to Peyton Manning. Having coached against the prolific quarterback with the Bills, Titans and Jaguars, Williams has had the challenging task of limiting No. 18. on many occasions.. He is well aware of the various changes required throughout the game as Manning is far too savvy to not figure out a sole defensive plan. Expect a mix of packages and New Orleans to play their aggressive, ball-hawking style. The Colts defensive unit could be without one of their key members as DE Dwight Freeney has a very wonky ankle. Under normal circumstances, Drew Brees is difficult to hit and with Freeney out or limited, it allows Brees and his offence to free up plays that may not have been available against a healthy Freeney.
This one has the makings of a classic and from where we sit, this championship is clearly up for grabs. With New Orleans’ abilities and significant points being offered, the newcomer Saints warrant our endorsement.
TAKING: New Orleans +4½ RISKING: 2.14 units to win 2
Jeff Benton
Super Bowl Action
60 DIME: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Colts
Before I break this Super Bowl down and explain to you why the Colts will win this thing by double digits, let’s first start with the Dwight Freeney issue. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that Indy’s All-Pro pass-rusher has a bum ankle and hasn’t practiced in two weeks. Do I think Freeney will play today? I do. Do I think he will be effective? I’d be surprised if he was. Do I think it will matter? Not nearly as much as many other “experts” think it will. And here’s why: Does the name Bob Sanders ring a bell? It should, because it was just a couple of years ago that Colts’ hard-hitting safety was the NFL Defensive Player of the Year.
You haven’t thought much about Sanders this year, have you? That’s because he’s been out all season with an injury (out of sight, out of mind). Yet without one of their two defensive leaders (Freeney being the other), the Colts had the eighth-best scoring defense in the entire league (allowing less than 20 ppg), they won all 16 games this year that they’ve tried to win and they’re in the Super Bowl. The point? As much as any defense in the league, Indy’s is a “system” defense – it’s a defense that succeeds because GM Bill Polian drafts and signs players with a specific skill set who are best suited to fit the Colts scheme. So unlike most teams, they can survive when a Pro Bowler goes down – they’ve proven so in the case of Sanders, and they’ll prove it today if Freeney isn’t a factor.
Now, let’s get to my four reasons why I love the Colts today.
In Manning I Trust: Hate to start off doing what everyone on the planet has been doing for the last two weeks, and gush over Peyton Manning. But I must. To say Manning is playing the best football of his Hall of Fame career is a colossal understatement – it might even be an understatement to say that he’s playing the best football of any quarterback in NFL history. To watch him carve up the Ravens (68.2 percent completion rate, 246 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) and Jets (66.7 percent completions, 377 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) in those two playoff wins was like watching Picasso create a masterpiece from a blank canvas. Consider that against an opponent (Baltimore) that ranked third in total defense, third in scoring defense and eighth in passing defense and an opponent (Jets) that ranked first in total defense, first in scoring defense and first in passing defense and allowed just eight TD passes in the regular season, Manning did the following: He connected on better than two-thirds of passes for 623 yards with 5 TDs and 1 INT – and the Colts tallied a combined 50 points. Now he gets to go up against a Saints team that ranked 25th out of 32 NFL clubs in total defense (giving up 357.8 yards per game) and 26th in passing defense (giving up 235.6 yards per game through the air). It’s a defense that, as you know, got absolutely shredded by 40-year-old Brett Favre and the Vikings in the NFC Championship game to the tune of 475 yards (310 passing, 165 rushing). Even more disturbing, it’s a defense that got sliced and diced this year by the likes of Atlanta’s Chris Redman (23-for-32 for 303 passing yards in relief of Matt Ryan), Washington’s Jason Campbell (30-for-42 for 367 yards and 3 TDs), St. Louis’ Marc Bulger (26-for-40 for 298 yards and 2 TDs) and Tampa Bay rookie Josh Freeman (21-for-31 for 271 yards). No disrespect to Redman, Campbell, Bulger and Freeman, but they ain’t Peyton Manning. Simply put, he’s going to have a field day against this below-average New Orleans defense. And yes, I know that Saints defensive coordinator Greg Williams (whom I praised a lot when I backed New Orleans in that 45-14 rout of Arizona in the first round of the playoffs) has said he wants his defense to deliver “remember-me” shots to Manning. Well, let me just make these two points: 1) Manning was sacked just 10 times in the regular season, and while he was dropped twice each in victories over the Ravens and Jets – two defenses who are much better at pressuring the QB than New Orleans – he was hardly rattled as evidenced by the stats I mentioned above (623 passing yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT, 50 points); and 2) Manning is extremely familiar with Williams-coached defenses from the D-coordinator’s days with division rivals Jacksonville and Tennessee. He’s faced a Williams defense seven times, winning five of those games while completing 65 percent of his throws for an average of 285 passing ypg with 13 TDs and 4 INTs. And those defenses sacked Manning just seven times in those five games. Of course, the counter-argument that Saints supporters will make is that New Orleans has a bend-but-don’t break opportunistic defense – as the Vikings found out two Sundays ago. Very true. New Orleans lives off turnovers, and the four they forced against Minnesota are the ONLY reason why they’re here in this game. And that brings me to my next point …
Don’t Drop the Ball: Peyton Manning and Brett Favre are both first-ballot Hall-of-Famers. But the difference is, you would NEVER, EVER see Manning make the throws under duress that Favre made two weeks ago. It’s just not going to happen. If the Saints get to Manning, he’ll eat the ball or throw it away. He will not make across-the-body, over-the-middle throws that are easily intercepted and kill his team’s championship hopes. Manning’s just not wired that way. And while he did average about an interception per game this season and may throw one today, I can assure you, he won’t be careless with the football in critical situations like most QBs are (including Favre). At the same time, Indy’s running backs and receivers don’t put the ball on the turf like the Vikings. In fact, the Colts had just seven fumbles in the regular season, losing three. Only the Chargers (five total fumbles, three lost) were better.In a nutshell, the only way the Saints can win this game is if they continue their ball-hawking ways. Favre, Adrian Peterson and the Vikings obliged in that department. Manning and the Colts will not.
Getting Defensive: When you have arguably the greatest quarterback in NFL history on your roster, obviously the majority of the attention will be focused on the offense. That’s the reality for Indianapolis. Fact is, though, the Colts’ defense has been wildly underrated. While they were in the middle of the pack in yards allowed (passing, rushing and overall), they finished eighth in points allowed (19.2 ppg). Take away the last two games of the regular season (when they gave up 29 points to the Jets and 30 to the Bills with the starters sitting out five of those eight quarters) and add the two playoff wins over the Jets and Ravens (who combined for 20 points) and Indy’s scoring defense drops to 16.8 ppg, which would put the Colts fourth in the league standings. And if you eliminate those last two regular-season games, the Colts held 12 of their other 16 opponents to 17 points or less. Yes, Drew Brees is phenomenal and the Saints’ offense is prolific. And New Orleans will put some points on the board in this game. But Indy’s defense, even without Freeney, will not get torched for 30-plus points (only one team has done that to the Colts all year). Keep in mind, too, that in the NFC title game – against a stout Vikings defense – New Orleans mustered just 257 total yards, with Brees throwing for just 197 yards.
Are You Experienced?: Don’t discount the been-there, done-that aspect of the Super Bowl. It is a big deal, and Indy’s got the obvious experience edge having played in this game four years ago (and in the same venue, too). Manning is one of 25 Colts that played in that 29-17 win over the Bears (who had as little Super Bowl experience as Indy that day). Guess how many Saints have played in the big game? Three. Again, it’s a big deal – especially when you consider how nerves got to the Saints in the NFC title game. And that was played in the Superdome in New Orleans, the best home-field edge in the NFL. And yet the Saints were nervous from the outset and got thoroughly outplayed. Now they’re going to a neutral site, outdoors, to face an opponent that has been on this huge stage before. And this much we know for sure: If the Saints freeze under the white-hot spotlight early on and fall behind by a couple of scores, this thing will be over in a hurry.
Bottom line, guys: The Saints have no business being here – you know it, I know it, and they know it. The only reason they are here is because they caught EVERY break imaginable in the Vikings game (right down to winning the coin flip before overtime, followed by three questionable officials calls/decisions that preceded the game-winning field goal). Massive breaks like that happen once every few years in the NFL. They don’t happen twice in two weeks – not against a Peyton Manning-led team that’s won 25 of its last 26 games that it has tried to win.The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meaningful games (i.e. not counting the last two regular-season contests against Buffalo and New York); they’re 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight playoff contests; and the SU winner has covered the spread in all 17 postseason games Indy has played with Manning under center.
Indy jumps out to an early lead, milks the clock in the fourth quarter and wins it 34-20.
Super Bowl Action
60 DIME: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Colts
Before I break this Super Bowl down and explain to you why the Colts will win this thing by double digits, let’s first start with the Dwight Freeney issue. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that Indy’s All-Pro pass-rusher has a bum ankle and hasn’t practiced in two weeks. Do I think Freeney will play today? I do. Do I think he will be effective? I’d be surprised if he was. Do I think it will matter? Not nearly as much as many other “experts” think it will. And here’s why: Does the name Bob Sanders ring a bell? It should, because it was just a couple of years ago that Colts’ hard-hitting safety was the NFL Defensive Player of the Year.
You haven’t thought much about Sanders this year, have you? That’s because he’s been out all season with an injury (out of sight, out of mind). Yet without one of their two defensive leaders (Freeney being the other), the Colts had the eighth-best scoring defense in the entire league (allowing less than 20 ppg), they won all 16 games this year that they’ve tried to win and they’re in the Super Bowl. The point? As much as any defense in the league, Indy’s is a “system” defense – it’s a defense that succeeds because GM Bill Polian drafts and signs players with a specific skill set who are best suited to fit the Colts scheme. So unlike most teams, they can survive when a Pro Bowler goes down – they’ve proven so in the case of Sanders, and they’ll prove it today if Freeney isn’t a factor.
Now, let’s get to my four reasons why I love the Colts today.
In Manning I Trust: Hate to start off doing what everyone on the planet has been doing for the last two weeks, and gush over Peyton Manning. But I must. To say Manning is playing the best football of his Hall of Fame career is a colossal understatement – it might even be an understatement to say that he’s playing the best football of any quarterback in NFL history. To watch him carve up the Ravens (68.2 percent completion rate, 246 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) and Jets (66.7 percent completions, 377 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) in those two playoff wins was like watching Picasso create a masterpiece from a blank canvas. Consider that against an opponent (Baltimore) that ranked third in total defense, third in scoring defense and eighth in passing defense and an opponent (Jets) that ranked first in total defense, first in scoring defense and first in passing defense and allowed just eight TD passes in the regular season, Manning did the following: He connected on better than two-thirds of passes for 623 yards with 5 TDs and 1 INT – and the Colts tallied a combined 50 points. Now he gets to go up against a Saints team that ranked 25th out of 32 NFL clubs in total defense (giving up 357.8 yards per game) and 26th in passing defense (giving up 235.6 yards per game through the air). It’s a defense that, as you know, got absolutely shredded by 40-year-old Brett Favre and the Vikings in the NFC Championship game to the tune of 475 yards (310 passing, 165 rushing). Even more disturbing, it’s a defense that got sliced and diced this year by the likes of Atlanta’s Chris Redman (23-for-32 for 303 passing yards in relief of Matt Ryan), Washington’s Jason Campbell (30-for-42 for 367 yards and 3 TDs), St. Louis’ Marc Bulger (26-for-40 for 298 yards and 2 TDs) and Tampa Bay rookie Josh Freeman (21-for-31 for 271 yards). No disrespect to Redman, Campbell, Bulger and Freeman, but they ain’t Peyton Manning. Simply put, he’s going to have a field day against this below-average New Orleans defense. And yes, I know that Saints defensive coordinator Greg Williams (whom I praised a lot when I backed New Orleans in that 45-14 rout of Arizona in the first round of the playoffs) has said he wants his defense to deliver “remember-me” shots to Manning. Well, let me just make these two points: 1) Manning was sacked just 10 times in the regular season, and while he was dropped twice each in victories over the Ravens and Jets – two defenses who are much better at pressuring the QB than New Orleans – he was hardly rattled as evidenced by the stats I mentioned above (623 passing yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT, 50 points); and 2) Manning is extremely familiar with Williams-coached defenses from the D-coordinator’s days with division rivals Jacksonville and Tennessee. He’s faced a Williams defense seven times, winning five of those games while completing 65 percent of his throws for an average of 285 passing ypg with 13 TDs and 4 INTs. And those defenses sacked Manning just seven times in those five games. Of course, the counter-argument that Saints supporters will make is that New Orleans has a bend-but-don’t break opportunistic defense – as the Vikings found out two Sundays ago. Very true. New Orleans lives off turnovers, and the four they forced against Minnesota are the ONLY reason why they’re here in this game. And that brings me to my next point …
Don’t Drop the Ball: Peyton Manning and Brett Favre are both first-ballot Hall-of-Famers. But the difference is, you would NEVER, EVER see Manning make the throws under duress that Favre made two weeks ago. It’s just not going to happen. If the Saints get to Manning, he’ll eat the ball or throw it away. He will not make across-the-body, over-the-middle throws that are easily intercepted and kill his team’s championship hopes. Manning’s just not wired that way. And while he did average about an interception per game this season and may throw one today, I can assure you, he won’t be careless with the football in critical situations like most QBs are (including Favre). At the same time, Indy’s running backs and receivers don’t put the ball on the turf like the Vikings. In fact, the Colts had just seven fumbles in the regular season, losing three. Only the Chargers (five total fumbles, three lost) were better.In a nutshell, the only way the Saints can win this game is if they continue their ball-hawking ways. Favre, Adrian Peterson and the Vikings obliged in that department. Manning and the Colts will not.
Getting Defensive: When you have arguably the greatest quarterback in NFL history on your roster, obviously the majority of the attention will be focused on the offense. That’s the reality for Indianapolis. Fact is, though, the Colts’ defense has been wildly underrated. While they were in the middle of the pack in yards allowed (passing, rushing and overall), they finished eighth in points allowed (19.2 ppg). Take away the last two games of the regular season (when they gave up 29 points to the Jets and 30 to the Bills with the starters sitting out five of those eight quarters) and add the two playoff wins over the Jets and Ravens (who combined for 20 points) and Indy’s scoring defense drops to 16.8 ppg, which would put the Colts fourth in the league standings. And if you eliminate those last two regular-season games, the Colts held 12 of their other 16 opponents to 17 points or less. Yes, Drew Brees is phenomenal and the Saints’ offense is prolific. And New Orleans will put some points on the board in this game. But Indy’s defense, even without Freeney, will not get torched for 30-plus points (only one team has done that to the Colts all year). Keep in mind, too, that in the NFC title game – against a stout Vikings defense – New Orleans mustered just 257 total yards, with Brees throwing for just 197 yards.
Are You Experienced?: Don’t discount the been-there, done-that aspect of the Super Bowl. It is a big deal, and Indy’s got the obvious experience edge having played in this game four years ago (and in the same venue, too). Manning is one of 25 Colts that played in that 29-17 win over the Bears (who had as little Super Bowl experience as Indy that day). Guess how many Saints have played in the big game? Three. Again, it’s a big deal – especially when you consider how nerves got to the Saints in the NFC title game. And that was played in the Superdome in New Orleans, the best home-field edge in the NFL. And yet the Saints were nervous from the outset and got thoroughly outplayed. Now they’re going to a neutral site, outdoors, to face an opponent that has been on this huge stage before. And this much we know for sure: If the Saints freeze under the white-hot spotlight early on and fall behind by a couple of scores, this thing will be over in a hurry.
Bottom line, guys: The Saints have no business being here – you know it, I know it, and they know it. The only reason they are here is because they caught EVERY break imaginable in the Vikings game (right down to winning the coin flip before overtime, followed by three questionable officials calls/decisions that preceded the game-winning field goal). Massive breaks like that happen once every few years in the NFL. They don’t happen twice in two weeks – not against a Peyton Manning-led team that’s won 25 of its last 26 games that it has tried to win.The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meaningful games (i.e. not counting the last two regular-season contests against Buffalo and New York); they’re 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight playoff contests; and the SU winner has covered the spread in all 17 postseason games Indy has played with Manning under center.
Indy jumps out to an early lead, milks the clock in the fourth quarter and wins it 34-20.
SPORTS ADVISORS
New Orleans (15-3, 9-9 ATS) vs. Indianapolis (16-2, 12-6 ATS)
(at Miami, Fla.)
The No. 1 seeds from the NFC and the AFC collide for the first time in 17 years when the Saints and the Colts head to Sun Life Stadium to battle for the Lombardi Trophy.
New Orleans outlasted Minnesota 31-28 in overtime two weeks ago in the NFC Championship Game, winning on Garrett Hartley’s 40-yard field goal to reach its first Super Bowl, but failing to cash as a four-point home favorite. The game was really decided by turnovers, though, as the Saints forced five while committing just one, the biggest among those a Brett Favre INT late in regulation when the Vikings were in position to attempt a game-winning field goal.
All those turnovers helped the Saints overcome an otherwise off day, as they were outgained 475-257, with the defense surrendering 310 passing yards and 165 rushing yards. QB Drew Brees was a rather ordinary 17 of 31 for 197 yards passing, but he had no turnovers and three TD throws. A week earlier in the divisional round, New Orleans plastered defending NFC champion Arizona 45-14 as a seven-point home favorite.
Indianapolis took a while to figure out the Jets two weeks ago in the AFC Championship Game, falling behind 17-6 late in the second quarter, but the Colts then scored the final 24 points in a 30-17 victory as a hefty eight-point home chalk. In helping his team reach the Super Bowl for the second time in the last four years, QB Peyton Manning carved up the league’s No. 1 total defense, No. 1 pass defense and No. 1 scoring defense, completing 26 of 39 passes for 377 yards and three TDs with no INTs or fumbles.
The Colts finished with 461 total yards against New York, and although Indy allowed 388, its defense stifled New York’s No. 1-ranked rushing game. Facing a unit that averaged a whopping 170 ypg in playoff wins at Cincinnati and San Diego, the Colts allowed just 86 yards on 29 carries. Indy’s victory over the Jets came a week after it shut down Baltimore 20-3 as a 6½-point home favorite in the divisional round.
New Orleans is in the postseason after a two-year hiatus, as they lost the NFC Championship Game 39-14 to Chicago following the 2006 regular season, with the Bears going on to face the Colts in the Super Bowl. This time around, the Saints reached the Super Bowl for the first time in the team’s 43-year history.
Indianapolis is in the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season – one more appearance than New Orleans’ complete playoff history. The Colts are going for their second Super Bowl title in four years, having beaten Chicago 29-17 as a 6½-point favorite following the 2006 season, also in Miami. The franchise also appeared in two Super Bowls when located in Baltimore, beating the Cowboys 16-3 in Super Bowl V and losing the infamous Super Bowl III to Joe Namath and the Jets, 16-7.
These teams have had three meaningful meetings in the past nine seasons, and the last two have been Indianapolis blowouts. The Colts were dealt a 34-20 loss as a six-point road ‘dog in November 2001, but they hammered New Orleans 55-21 as a 2½-point road chalk in September 2003, then drubbed the Saints 41-10 as a 5½-point home favorite in the 2007 season opener. The SU winner is on a 5-0 ATS roll in this occasional rivalry.
New Orleans led the NFL in total offense (403.8 ypg) and scoring offense (31.9 ppg) in the regular season. In fact, the Saints scored 30 points or more nine times in the first 13 games and had seven games of 35 points or more, including four in the 40s. QB Drew Brees engineered a passing attack that averaged 272.2 ypg (fourth). Including two playoff wins, Brees has completed 69.8 percent of his passes for 4,832 yards with 40 TDs and 11 INTs. In the regular season, the Texas native was the top rated QB (109.6), completing an NFL-record 70.6 percent of his passes.
Defensively, New Orleans was not quite as sharp, allowing 21.3 points (20th) and 357.8 total yards per game (25th), but it posted a plus-11 turnover margin, third-best in the NFL. Including the two playoff wins, the Saints are now up to plus-17, having forced seven postseason turnovers while committing just one. New Orleans also led the NFL in defensive TDs with eight, twice as many as any other team.
Behind the NFL’s second-best passing attack (282.2 ypg), Indy averaged 363.1 total ypg (ninth) and 26 ppg (seventh). Manning threw for exactly 4,500 yards and had 33 TDs against 16 INTs, and those numbers jump to 5,123 yards, 38 TDs and 17 INTs when you include the playoffs. WR Reggie Wayne (100 catches, 1,264 yards, 10 TDs) and TE Dallas Clark (100 catches, 1,106 yards, 10 TDs) led a receiving corps that saw five guys catch at least 47 passes..
Indianapolis allowed 339.2 ypg (18th) in regular-season action, but it gave up just 19.2 ppg (ninth) and continued its stingy ways in the postseason, surrendering just 20 points in two games. The Colts had a nominal plus-2 turnover margin in the regular season, but they are plus-3 in the postseason, having tied the Jets at one turnover apiece after posting a 4-1 margin in the victory over the Ravens.
Despite their SU success through the first 11 games of the season (8-3 ATS), the Saints are in ATS ruts of 1-6 overall, 0-4 after a SU win, 1-4 after a non-cover, 1-4 in the postseason and 1-3-1 as an underdog. On the plus side of the ledger, the underdog has cashed in the last two Super Bowls and five of the last seven (2-5 SU). In fact, favorite is 10-4 SU in the last 14 Super Bowls, but just 4-8-2 ATS.
The Colts, are on spread-covering sprees of 7-3 overall, 5-1 against winning teams, 7-2 laying points, 5-1 after a spread cover and 15-5-2 after a SU win. Plus, Manning is 9-8 SU and ATS in the playoffs in his career, but 6-2 SU and ATS in his last eight postseason outings, including 4-0 SU and ATS on the Colts run to the title three years ago. The SU winner has covered the spread in all 17 of Manning’s playoff games.
New Orleans is on “over” rolls of 5-0-1 in the playoffs, 49-23-2 against winning teams and 19-9 with the Saints coming off a SU win. Likewise, Indianapolis is on “over” streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-0 after both a SU and ATS win and 4-1 as chalk, though the total has gone low in seven of the Colts’ last 10 playoff games.
Finally, last year’s Super Bowl – a 27-23 Pittsburgh win over Arizona – cleared the 46½-point posted total, ending a four-year “under” run in the big game.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and OVER
NBA
Orlando (33-17, 25-24-1 ATS) at Boston (32-16, 19-28-1 ATS)
The Celtics look to add to their three-game winning streak when they welcome the Magic into TD Garden for this Eastern Conference showdown.
Orlando had its four-game winning streak snapped on Friday when the lowly Wizards went to Florida and scored a 92-91 upset as 12½-point underdogs. Dwight Howard led the way with 20 points and 18 rebounds but the Wizards’ Caron Butler hit the game-winner with less than a second to play. The Magic are 14-12 on the road this season but just 8-18 ATS.
Boston has followed a three-game losing streak with its current three-game winning streak (1-2 ATS). The Celtics beat New Jersey 96-87 at home on Friday but came up short as 12½-point favorites. Ray Allen led the way with 26 points and seven rebounds while Rajon Rondo added 17 points and 11 assists.
Orlando has taken two of the three meetings this season, including a 96-94 home win on Jan. 28, but it fell short as a 3½-point favorite. These two met in Boston on Nov. 20 with the Magic scoring an 83-78 upset as six-point pups. The Celtics are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 series clashes in Boston, but the road team has gone 4-0 ATS in the last four matchups.
The Magic are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against Atlantic Division teams and 4-1 ATS in their last five Sunday contests, but they are on pointspread slides of 4-9-1 on the road, 2-7-1 on the highway against teams with winning home records and 0-3-1 after a straight-up loss. The Celtics are in a plethora of ATS ruts, including 2-8-1 overall, 4-16-1 at home, 1-5-1 after a non-cover, 0-4-1 after a day off and 0-5-1 at home against teams with winning road records.
Orlando is on several “under” streaks, including 20-8 overall, 20-8 on the road, 21-7 after a straight-up loss, 35-16 after a non-cover, 9-2 on Sundays and 4-0 against Eastern Conference teams. Boston is on “under” runs of 10-4 on Sundays, 5-2 at home, 6-1 against teams with a winning record and 5-2 after a non-cover. In this rivalry, the “under” is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 5-1 in the last six clashes in Beantown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(3) Syracuse (22-1, 14-5 ATS) at Cincinnati (14-8, 5-12 ATS)
Syracuse takes aim at a 10th straight win when it visits Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati to take on the Bearcats in a Big East Conference matchup.
The Orange blew out Providence on Tuesday 85-68, cashing as a 14½-point favorite and improving to 7-2 ATS during their nine-game winning streak. Syracuse is a perfect 8-0 (7-1 ATS) in games played away from home, where they allow just 67.4 points per game and hold the opposition to 38.2 percent shooting.
Cincinnati has alternated wins and losses in its last four contests and it is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight lined games. On Thursday, the Bearcats went to South Bend, Ind., and lost 83-65 at Notre Dame as a three-point underdog, and in their last home game, they edged Providence 92-88, failing to cover as 8½-point favorites. Cincinnati has struggled defensively lately, allowing 73.4 ppg and 44.7 percent shooting over its last five outings.
Last year, Syracuse destroyed Cincinnati 87-63, cashing as an eight-point home chalk. These teams have split their last six meetings with the Bearcats holding the slight 3-2-1 ATS edge, and the underdog at 4-1-1 ATS in those six.
The Orange are on several ATS runs, including 23-7 overall, 14-4 in Big East action, 19-7 after a straight-up win, 6-1 on the road and 20-7 against teams with winning records. Cincinnati has struggled at the wagering window, currently on ATS slides of 5-16 overall, 4-22 on Sunday, 3-14 in conference play and 0-7 after a straight-up loss.
Syracuse has topped the total in four straight Sunday games, but it is otherwise on “under” runs of 5-0 on the road, 6-1 in the Big East and 6-1 after a straight-up win. The Bearcats have gone “over” the total in four of their last five at home and seven of 10 at home against teams with a winning road record, but they have stayed low in five of six after a straight-up loss and five of seven after a non-cover.
In this series, the “over” has been the play in four of the last five meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SYRACUSE
New Orleans (15-3, 9-9 ATS) vs. Indianapolis (16-2, 12-6 ATS)
(at Miami, Fla.)
The No. 1 seeds from the NFC and the AFC collide for the first time in 17 years when the Saints and the Colts head to Sun Life Stadium to battle for the Lombardi Trophy.
New Orleans outlasted Minnesota 31-28 in overtime two weeks ago in the NFC Championship Game, winning on Garrett Hartley’s 40-yard field goal to reach its first Super Bowl, but failing to cash as a four-point home favorite. The game was really decided by turnovers, though, as the Saints forced five while committing just one, the biggest among those a Brett Favre INT late in regulation when the Vikings were in position to attempt a game-winning field goal.
All those turnovers helped the Saints overcome an otherwise off day, as they were outgained 475-257, with the defense surrendering 310 passing yards and 165 rushing yards. QB Drew Brees was a rather ordinary 17 of 31 for 197 yards passing, but he had no turnovers and three TD throws. A week earlier in the divisional round, New Orleans plastered defending NFC champion Arizona 45-14 as a seven-point home favorite.
Indianapolis took a while to figure out the Jets two weeks ago in the AFC Championship Game, falling behind 17-6 late in the second quarter, but the Colts then scored the final 24 points in a 30-17 victory as a hefty eight-point home chalk. In helping his team reach the Super Bowl for the second time in the last four years, QB Peyton Manning carved up the league’s No. 1 total defense, No. 1 pass defense and No. 1 scoring defense, completing 26 of 39 passes for 377 yards and three TDs with no INTs or fumbles.
The Colts finished with 461 total yards against New York, and although Indy allowed 388, its defense stifled New York’s No. 1-ranked rushing game. Facing a unit that averaged a whopping 170 ypg in playoff wins at Cincinnati and San Diego, the Colts allowed just 86 yards on 29 carries. Indy’s victory over the Jets came a week after it shut down Baltimore 20-3 as a 6½-point home favorite in the divisional round.
New Orleans is in the postseason after a two-year hiatus, as they lost the NFC Championship Game 39-14 to Chicago following the 2006 regular season, with the Bears going on to face the Colts in the Super Bowl. This time around, the Saints reached the Super Bowl for the first time in the team’s 43-year history.
Indianapolis is in the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season – one more appearance than New Orleans’ complete playoff history. The Colts are going for their second Super Bowl title in four years, having beaten Chicago 29-17 as a 6½-point favorite following the 2006 season, also in Miami. The franchise also appeared in two Super Bowls when located in Baltimore, beating the Cowboys 16-3 in Super Bowl V and losing the infamous Super Bowl III to Joe Namath and the Jets, 16-7.
These teams have had three meaningful meetings in the past nine seasons, and the last two have been Indianapolis blowouts. The Colts were dealt a 34-20 loss as a six-point road ‘dog in November 2001, but they hammered New Orleans 55-21 as a 2½-point road chalk in September 2003, then drubbed the Saints 41-10 as a 5½-point home favorite in the 2007 season opener. The SU winner is on a 5-0 ATS roll in this occasional rivalry.
New Orleans led the NFL in total offense (403.8 ypg) and scoring offense (31.9 ppg) in the regular season. In fact, the Saints scored 30 points or more nine times in the first 13 games and had seven games of 35 points or more, including four in the 40s. QB Drew Brees engineered a passing attack that averaged 272.2 ypg (fourth). Including two playoff wins, Brees has completed 69.8 percent of his passes for 4,832 yards with 40 TDs and 11 INTs. In the regular season, the Texas native was the top rated QB (109.6), completing an NFL-record 70.6 percent of his passes.
Defensively, New Orleans was not quite as sharp, allowing 21.3 points (20th) and 357.8 total yards per game (25th), but it posted a plus-11 turnover margin, third-best in the NFL. Including the two playoff wins, the Saints are now up to plus-17, having forced seven postseason turnovers while committing just one. New Orleans also led the NFL in defensive TDs with eight, twice as many as any other team.
Behind the NFL’s second-best passing attack (282.2 ypg), Indy averaged 363.1 total ypg (ninth) and 26 ppg (seventh). Manning threw for exactly 4,500 yards and had 33 TDs against 16 INTs, and those numbers jump to 5,123 yards, 38 TDs and 17 INTs when you include the playoffs. WR Reggie Wayne (100 catches, 1,264 yards, 10 TDs) and TE Dallas Clark (100 catches, 1,106 yards, 10 TDs) led a receiving corps that saw five guys catch at least 47 passes..
Indianapolis allowed 339.2 ypg (18th) in regular-season action, but it gave up just 19.2 ppg (ninth) and continued its stingy ways in the postseason, surrendering just 20 points in two games. The Colts had a nominal plus-2 turnover margin in the regular season, but they are plus-3 in the postseason, having tied the Jets at one turnover apiece after posting a 4-1 margin in the victory over the Ravens.
Despite their SU success through the first 11 games of the season (8-3 ATS), the Saints are in ATS ruts of 1-6 overall, 0-4 after a SU win, 1-4 after a non-cover, 1-4 in the postseason and 1-3-1 as an underdog. On the plus side of the ledger, the underdog has cashed in the last two Super Bowls and five of the last seven (2-5 SU). In fact, favorite is 10-4 SU in the last 14 Super Bowls, but just 4-8-2 ATS.
The Colts, are on spread-covering sprees of 7-3 overall, 5-1 against winning teams, 7-2 laying points, 5-1 after a spread cover and 15-5-2 after a SU win. Plus, Manning is 9-8 SU and ATS in the playoffs in his career, but 6-2 SU and ATS in his last eight postseason outings, including 4-0 SU and ATS on the Colts run to the title three years ago. The SU winner has covered the spread in all 17 of Manning’s playoff games.
New Orleans is on “over” rolls of 5-0-1 in the playoffs, 49-23-2 against winning teams and 19-9 with the Saints coming off a SU win. Likewise, Indianapolis is on “over” streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-0 after both a SU and ATS win and 4-1 as chalk, though the total has gone low in seven of the Colts’ last 10 playoff games.
Finally, last year’s Super Bowl – a 27-23 Pittsburgh win over Arizona – cleared the 46½-point posted total, ending a four-year “under” run in the big game.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and OVER
NBA
Orlando (33-17, 25-24-1 ATS) at Boston (32-16, 19-28-1 ATS)
The Celtics look to add to their three-game winning streak when they welcome the Magic into TD Garden for this Eastern Conference showdown.
Orlando had its four-game winning streak snapped on Friday when the lowly Wizards went to Florida and scored a 92-91 upset as 12½-point underdogs. Dwight Howard led the way with 20 points and 18 rebounds but the Wizards’ Caron Butler hit the game-winner with less than a second to play. The Magic are 14-12 on the road this season but just 8-18 ATS.
Boston has followed a three-game losing streak with its current three-game winning streak (1-2 ATS). The Celtics beat New Jersey 96-87 at home on Friday but came up short as 12½-point favorites. Ray Allen led the way with 26 points and seven rebounds while Rajon Rondo added 17 points and 11 assists.
Orlando has taken two of the three meetings this season, including a 96-94 home win on Jan. 28, but it fell short as a 3½-point favorite. These two met in Boston on Nov. 20 with the Magic scoring an 83-78 upset as six-point pups. The Celtics are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 series clashes in Boston, but the road team has gone 4-0 ATS in the last four matchups.
The Magic are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against Atlantic Division teams and 4-1 ATS in their last five Sunday contests, but they are on pointspread slides of 4-9-1 on the road, 2-7-1 on the highway against teams with winning home records and 0-3-1 after a straight-up loss. The Celtics are in a plethora of ATS ruts, including 2-8-1 overall, 4-16-1 at home, 1-5-1 after a non-cover, 0-4-1 after a day off and 0-5-1 at home against teams with winning road records.
Orlando is on several “under” streaks, including 20-8 overall, 20-8 on the road, 21-7 after a straight-up loss, 35-16 after a non-cover, 9-2 on Sundays and 4-0 against Eastern Conference teams. Boston is on “under” runs of 10-4 on Sundays, 5-2 at home, 6-1 against teams with a winning record and 5-2 after a non-cover. In this rivalry, the “under” is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 5-1 in the last six clashes in Beantown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(3) Syracuse (22-1, 14-5 ATS) at Cincinnati (14-8, 5-12 ATS)
Syracuse takes aim at a 10th straight win when it visits Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati to take on the Bearcats in a Big East Conference matchup.
The Orange blew out Providence on Tuesday 85-68, cashing as a 14½-point favorite and improving to 7-2 ATS during their nine-game winning streak. Syracuse is a perfect 8-0 (7-1 ATS) in games played away from home, where they allow just 67.4 points per game and hold the opposition to 38.2 percent shooting.
Cincinnati has alternated wins and losses in its last four contests and it is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight lined games. On Thursday, the Bearcats went to South Bend, Ind., and lost 83-65 at Notre Dame as a three-point underdog, and in their last home game, they edged Providence 92-88, failing to cover as 8½-point favorites. Cincinnati has struggled defensively lately, allowing 73.4 ppg and 44.7 percent shooting over its last five outings.
Last year, Syracuse destroyed Cincinnati 87-63, cashing as an eight-point home chalk. These teams have split their last six meetings with the Bearcats holding the slight 3-2-1 ATS edge, and the underdog at 4-1-1 ATS in those six.
The Orange are on several ATS runs, including 23-7 overall, 14-4 in Big East action, 19-7 after a straight-up win, 6-1 on the road and 20-7 against teams with winning records. Cincinnati has struggled at the wagering window, currently on ATS slides of 5-16 overall, 4-22 on Sunday, 3-14 in conference play and 0-7 after a straight-up loss.
Syracuse has topped the total in four straight Sunday games, but it is otherwise on “under” runs of 5-0 on the road, 6-1 in the Big East and 6-1 after a straight-up win. The Bearcats have gone “over” the total in four of their last five at home and seven of 10 at home against teams with a winning road record, but they have stayed low in five of six after a straight-up loss and five of seven after a non-cover.
In this series, the “over” has been the play in four of the last five meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SYRACUSE
Bob Balfe
Top ten prop bets for the Super Bowl!
Fumbles lost by both teams OVER 1.5 +115
Saints 3rd down conversions made OVER 5.5 -125
Colts 3rd down conversions made OVER 5.5 -185
Longest Touchdown of game UNDER 49.5 yards -115
Longest FG made UNDER 42.5 yards -115
Reggie Bush longest rush from scrimmage OVER 9.5 -115
Total rushing yards Donald Brown OVER 20.5 -115
Will either team score in first 5 1/2 mins of game? NO -135
Lance Moore Total Receptions OVER 1.5 -115
Number of Saints to have a reception UNDER 7.5 -115
Top ten prop bets for the Super Bowl!
Fumbles lost by both teams OVER 1.5 +115
Saints 3rd down conversions made OVER 5.5 -125
Colts 3rd down conversions made OVER 5.5 -185
Longest Touchdown of game UNDER 49.5 yards -115
Longest FG made UNDER 42.5 yards -115
Reggie Bush longest rush from scrimmage OVER 9.5 -115
Total rushing yards Donald Brown OVER 20.5 -115
Will either team score in first 5 1/2 mins of game? NO -135
Lance Moore Total Receptions OVER 1.5 -115
Number of Saints to have a reception UNDER 7.5 -115
CTO
SOUTH FLORIDA over *Notre Dame (Day Game)...ND’s NCAA at-large hopes suffered mightily with 74-73 upset loss at lowly Rutgers Jan. 30.
So, must buck defensively-soft Irish (allowing 73 ppg), only 4-8 vs. spread last 12 Big East home games (prior to Cincy Feb. 4). Vastly-improved
USF—which has won school-record 3 straight (all upsets!) in conference play—is 7-3 vs. spread last 10 on road (prior to Georgetown Feb. 3).
And with Bulls’ burgeoning star 6-4 sr. G D. Jones (21 ppg, 6 rpg, 4 apg, 2 spg) & 6-11 juco Famous (12 ppg, 8 rpg) continuing to become so,
Irish in for another disappointment.
SOUTH FLORIDA 77 - *Notre Dame 76 RATING - 11
SOUTH FLORIDA over *Notre Dame (Day Game)...ND’s NCAA at-large hopes suffered mightily with 74-73 upset loss at lowly Rutgers Jan. 30.
So, must buck defensively-soft Irish (allowing 73 ppg), only 4-8 vs. spread last 12 Big East home games (prior to Cincy Feb. 4). Vastly-improved
USF—which has won school-record 3 straight (all upsets!) in conference play—is 7-3 vs. spread last 10 on road (prior to Georgetown Feb. 3).
And with Bulls’ burgeoning star 6-4 sr. G D. Jones (21 ppg, 6 rpg, 4 apg, 2 spg) & 6-11 juco Famous (12 ppg, 8 rpg) continuing to become so,
Irish in for another disappointment.
SOUTH FLORIDA 77 - *Notre Dame 76 RATING - 11
DCI College Basketball
02/07/10 Predictions
Season
Straight Up: 2784-880 (.760)
ATS: 1132-1150 (.496)
ATS Vary Units: 3248-3409 (.488)
Over/Under: 975-975 (.500)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1481-1447 (.506)
Atlantic 10 Conference
SAINT JOSEPH'S 73, St. Bonaventure 72
Atlantic Coast Conference
MARYLAND 84, North Carolina 77
Atlantic Sun Conference
BELMONT 70, North Florida 58
Jacksonville vs. LIPSCOMB: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Big East Conference
NOTRE DAME 76, South Florida 74
Syracuse 80, CINCINNATI 68
Big Sky Conference
NORTHERN COLORADO 78, Northern Arizona 69
SACRAMENTO STATE 73, Eastern Washington 68
Big South Conference
RADFORD 84, High Point 72
Big Ten Conference
NORTHWESTERN 73, Indiana 57
OHIO STATE 70, Iowa 50
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Iona 71, MARIST 51
MANHATTAN 66, Loyola (Md.) 62
SAINT PETER'S 63, Canisius 55
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
MORGAN STATE 84, Florida A&M 61
Patriot League
ARMY 64, Colgate 55
Non-Conference
North Dakota 68, SIU EDWARDSVILLE 67
PORTLAND STATE 93, Seattle 82
02/07/10 Predictions
Season
Straight Up: 2784-880 (.760)
ATS: 1132-1150 (.496)
ATS Vary Units: 3248-3409 (.488)
Over/Under: 975-975 (.500)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1481-1447 (.506)
Atlantic 10 Conference
SAINT JOSEPH'S 73, St. Bonaventure 72
Atlantic Coast Conference
MARYLAND 84, North Carolina 77
Atlantic Sun Conference
BELMONT 70, North Florida 58
Jacksonville vs. LIPSCOMB: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Big East Conference
NOTRE DAME 76, South Florida 74
Syracuse 80, CINCINNATI 68
Big Sky Conference
NORTHERN COLORADO 78, Northern Arizona 69
SACRAMENTO STATE 73, Eastern Washington 68
Big South Conference
RADFORD 84, High Point 72
Big Ten Conference
NORTHWESTERN 73, Indiana 57
OHIO STATE 70, Iowa 50
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Iona 71, MARIST 51
MANHATTAN 66, Loyola (Md.) 62
SAINT PETER'S 63, Canisius 55
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
MORGAN STATE 84, Florida A&M 61
Patriot League
ARMY 64, Colgate 55
Non-Conference
North Dakota 68, SIU EDWARDSVILLE 67
PORTLAND STATE 93, Seattle 82
DUNKEL INDEX
NCAA Basketball Picks
North Carolina at Maryland
The Terps look to build on their 10-1 ATS record in their last 11 games in the ACC. Maryland is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Terps favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-6 1/2). Here are all of today's games.
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 7
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST
Game 805-806: South Florida at Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 58.475; Notre Dame 68.715
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 10
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 8
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-8)
Game 807-808: Iowa at Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 60.131; Ohio State 77.854
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+18 1/2)
Game 809-810: Syracuse at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 70.150; Cincinnati 65.698
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 5
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+5)
Game 811-812: North Carolina at Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 67.818; Maryland 75.952
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 8
Vegas Line: Maryland by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-6 1/2)
Game 813-814: Indiana at Northwestern
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 60.232; Northwestern 69.447
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 9
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+9 1/2)
Game 815-816: Canisius at St. Peter's
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 49.367; St. Peter's 52.387
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 3
Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (+5 1/2)
Game 817-818: Iona at Marist
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 59.843; Marist 41.364
Dunkel Line: Iona by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-13 1/2)
Game 819-820: Loyola-MD at Manhattan
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 51.420; Manhattan 52.455
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 1
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (+2 1/2)
Game 821-822: Northern Arizona at Northern Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 51.721; Northern Colorado 58.855
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 7
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 11
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (+11)
Game 823-824: Eastern Washington at Sacramento State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 43.729; Sacramento State 48.370
Dunkel Line: Sacramento State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Sacramento State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento State (-3)
Game 825-826: NC Wilmington at Delaware
Dunkel Ratings: NC Wilmington 44.190; Delaware 53.456
Dunkel Line: Delaware by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NCAA Basketball Picks
North Carolina at Maryland
The Terps look to build on their 10-1 ATS record in their last 11 games in the ACC. Maryland is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Terps favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-6 1/2). Here are all of today's games.
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 7
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST
Game 805-806: South Florida at Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 58.475; Notre Dame 68.715
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 10
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 8
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-8)
Game 807-808: Iowa at Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 60.131; Ohio State 77.854
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+18 1/2)
Game 809-810: Syracuse at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 70.150; Cincinnati 65.698
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 5
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+5)
Game 811-812: North Carolina at Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 67.818; Maryland 75.952
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 8
Vegas Line: Maryland by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-6 1/2)
Game 813-814: Indiana at Northwestern
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 60.232; Northwestern 69.447
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 9
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+9 1/2)
Game 815-816: Canisius at St. Peter's
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 49.367; St. Peter's 52.387
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 3
Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (+5 1/2)
Game 817-818: Iona at Marist
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 59.843; Marist 41.364
Dunkel Line: Iona by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-13 1/2)
Game 819-820: Loyola-MD at Manhattan
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 51.420; Manhattan 52.455
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 1
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (+2 1/2)
Game 821-822: Northern Arizona at Northern Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 51.721; Northern Colorado 58.855
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 7
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 11
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (+11)
Game 823-824: Eastern Washington at Sacramento State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 43.729; Sacramento State 48.370
Dunkel Line: Sacramento State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Sacramento State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento State (-3)
Game 825-826: NC Wilmington at Delaware
Dunkel Ratings: NC Wilmington 44.190; Delaware 53.456
Dunkel Line: Delaware by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
All Day Super Bowl Pass
Mill - NO +4.5
total.......OVER 57( no rating )
PROPS:
1) SAINTS - 7.5 PAYS +475
2) WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN THE FINAL 2 MINS OF THE FIRST HALF? NO
PAYS +250
3) SAINTS WIN 1ST HALF AND THE GAME...BOTH MUST HAPPEN. PAYS 4 TO 1
4) MARGIN OF VICTORY WITH SAINTS WINNING...BY 5 TO 8 POINTS
PAYS 8 TO 1
5)THE FINAL POINTS SCORED BY THE SAINTS....35 PAYS 12/1
JACK CLAYTON
Sport:NFLGame:Saints/ColtsDate/Time:2/7/2010 8:00PM EST
Pick:Colts 1st Quarter
Reason:The Colts have been great at jumping out early on opponents with an uptempo, aggressive attack. Oddly, even though the Saints had the best offense in pro football, they were slow starters, actually getting outscored in the first quarter by a significant margin this season, the only quarter that happened. Play the Colts to win the first quarter.
Sport:NFLGame:Saints/ColtsDate/Time:2/7/2010 8:00PM EST
Pick:Colts 1st Quarter
Reason:The Colts have been great at jumping out early on opponents with an uptempo, aggressive attack. Oddly, even though the Saints had the best offense in pro football, they were slow starters, actually getting outscored in the first quarter by a significant margin this season, the only quarter that happened. Play the Colts to win the first quarter.
