Nevermind about Dr Bob; I bought it for us. Enjoy.
2 Star Selection
New Orleans (+5) 28 INDIANAPOLIS 27
Miami
07-Feb-10 03:25 PM Pacific Time
New Orleans Offense versus Indianapolis Defense
The Saints have the most complete offense in the NFL, as they are able to run the ball effectively with both Pierre Thomas (5.4 ypr) and Reggie Bush (5.6 ypr) while also being able to throw the ball short (Bush and Thomas combined for 86 catches) and long with wide receivers Colston, Henderson, and Meachem all averaging at least 15.3 yards per reception. At the controls is Drew Brees, who should have been the NFL's MVP over Peyton Manning this season. Brees completed 71% of his passes in the regular season and has thrown 40 touchdowns against just 11 interceptions in 17 games, including 6 TDs and 0 picks in the post season. The Saints have averaged 4.8 yards per rushing play (excluding quarterback kneel downs and also excluding their week 17 game when they used a lot of reserves) and Brees has averaged an impressive 7.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB). Overall the Saints' attack has averaged a very impressive 6.5 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team.
The Colts' defense was mostly very good this season and allowed just 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. However, Indy rates a bit better defensively if you exclude the games in the middle of the season when top cornerback Kelvin Hayden missed some time. Hayden actually missed 7 of 9 games from week 3 through week 12, and the Colts' pass defense was 0.7 yards per pass play better than average in the 11 games in which Hayden played (compared to 0.5 yppp better than average in all games excluding week 17 when the subs played a lot). Indy also has a solid run defense that allowed 4.2 ypr to teams that would combine to average 4.5 ypr against an average team. Overall the Colts are 0.4 yards per play better than average defensively, but that's assuming that top pass rusher DE Dwight Freeney is going to play at his normal level - which is highly unlikely. Freeney has a torn ligament in his right ankle that makes it tough for him to even stand up and it would be incredible if he plays anywhere close to his normal level.
With Freeney far less than 100% the Colts go from having a better than average pass rush to a worse than average pass rush, as Freeney's 13.5 sacks in 16 games is impossible to replace. With Freeney not likely to play much, or not able to play effectively the Saints can use more double-teams on Robert Mathis, who has 9.5 sacks in 16 games, and Drew Brees should have plenty of time to throw the ball, which will make it tough on a Colts' secondary that could be thinned by the absence of CB Jerraud Powers, who has started all 13 games that he has played this season but missed the AFC Championship game against the Jets. Powers is listed as questionable this week and the Colts' pass defense has been 0.4 yards per pass play worse than average in the 4 games that he has missed (excluding week 17). I suspect that Powers will try to play, but probably won't start, but the Saints have so many good receivers that Powers will be exposed if he's not 100%.
The Saints are coming off their worst offensive game of the season in the NFC Championship Game win over the Vikings with just 4.7 yppl, but the Colts' defense is also coming off a bad game in allowing the Jets to average 10.1 yards per pass play and 6.7 yppl. I have to assume both teams will play at their normal level and my math model projects 393 total yards for the Saints at 5.9 yards per play - and that assumes Freeney and Powers will both play at their normal level of play, which is highly unlikely (especially for Freeney).
Indianapolis Offense versus New Orleans Defense
The Colts' offense has been pretty one-dimensional this season, as the rushing attack has generated 100 yards or more just 4 times all season while averaging just 84 yards at 3.7 yards per rushing play (excluding week 17). Having a good rushing attack isn't extremely important when Peyton Manning is your quarterback, as Manning has led his team to 28 points per game (excluding week 16 and 17 when he played only a part of each game) without the benefit of a good rushing attack. Manning averaged 7.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback), but he's also thrown 17 interceptions and that could be a problem against a ball-hawking Saints' secondary that has picked off 1.7 passes per game (excluding a meaningless week 17 game). The Colts' offense rates at 0.9 yards per play better than average with Peyton Manning on the field, which isn't as good as the Saints' +1.1 yppl offensive rating.
I've heard a lot of so called "experts" question the Saints' defense after a second half of the season in which they didn't do a good job defending the pass, but few of them have pointed out the reason for that poor defensive performance over the second half of the season. New Orleans was a better than average defensive team through the first 9 weeks of the season, but top cornerback Jabari Greer was injured and missed the next 7 games while the other starting corner Tracy Porter was injured a week later and missed 4 games while also being limited for a few games late in the season after his return to active duty. New Orleans had pretty good depth at the cornerback position, but their #3 and #4 cornerbacks had to start a lot of games in the second half of the season and that really hurt them, especially against multiple receiver sets. The Saints got their reputation of being a sub-par defense because their depleted secondary allowed 7.0 yards per pass play from week 10 on (regular season) to quarterbacks that would average just 6.0 yppp against an average defensive team. However, Greer returned to play some in a meaningless week 17 game and was ready to start along with Tracy Porter in the playoffs two weeks later - the first time since week 8 that the Saints' starting cornerbacks were both playing. Arizona threw the ball at a decent level (mostly after the game was decided) and holding Brett Favre to 6.7 yppp in the NFC Championship game is a better than average effort (Favre would average 7.2 yppp on the road against an average team). In 10 games with Greer and Porter starting the Saints' pass defense rates at 0.3 yppp better than average, so the reputation of being easy to throw against is undeserved. The Saints are pretty easy to run against (4.6 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.4 ypr against an average team), but the Colts are not going to win this game by running the ball and a healthy Saints' secondary that picks off a lot of passes could be a challenge for Peyton Manning. Manning and the Colts still have a solid advantage over a healthy Saints' defense and my math model projects 393 yards at 6.1 yppl for Indianapolis in this game.
Math Model Projection
Overall my math model projects the Colts with just a 1 yard edge in total yards and a narrow 6.1 yppl to 5.9 yppl advantage. That projection assumes that the Colts are at full strength defensively, which they clearly are not, so the Saints may actually have an advantage from the line of scrimmage in this game with Freeney and Powers not at 100% if they are able to play. The math model projects a 0.4 edge in turnovers in favor of the Saints, with special teams even and penalties favoring the Colts a bit. Overall, the math model favors New Orleans by 0.5 points in this game with a total of 53.7 points. That shouldn't be that surprising given that the Saints do have a better offense and the defenses are much closer after adjusting for New Orleans' pass defense with Greer and Porter manning the cornerback positions.
Side Summary
Going by last week's games, in which the Colts beat a good Jets team by 13 points and the Saints were lucky to beat a Vikings team that beat themselves with 5 turnovers, it appears as if the Colts are clearly the better team. However, that is simply not the case, as New Orleans has actually been a better team over the course of the season, especially when their starting defensive secondary was intact as it is now. While the Colts are 16-0 straight up in games that they've played to win (they rested starters in losses in week 16 and 17), 7 of those 16 victories were by 4 points or fewer and none of the teams that they beat by more than 4 points are as good as the Saints. New Orleans is 15-2 straight up in the 17 games in which Drew Brees played, losing by 7 points to the Cowboys and by 3 points at Carolina, but teams tend to play at a higher level in the Super Bowl and the Saints' higher level of play is better than the Colts' higher level of play. I give a game rating for each game based on the score, strength of opponent and site of the game and the Saints' top game rating is 10 points higher than the Colts' top game rating. The Saints' 2nd highest game rating is higher than the Colts 2nd highest game rating, their 3rd is higher than the Colts' 3rd. In fact, the Saints' game ratings are higher than the corresponding Colts' game ratings from best to worst until you get down to each team's 13th best game. The Saints worst games were certainly worse than the Colts' worst games, but it's hard to imagine teams playing at their worst in the Super Bowl and if each team is expected to play at their average level or higher, then the Saints are likely to win this game.
New Orleans also has an edge in compensated points differential, as the Saints' average score in their 17 games with Drew Brees playing was 33.9 to 21.2 and their schedule in those games was 0.1 points easier than average, which would make the Saints' compensated point differential +12.6 points. The Colts' average score in their 16 wins was 27.8 to 16.8 and their schedule in those 16 games was 0.1 point tougher than average, which gives the Colts a +11.1 compensated point differential. Part of New Orleans' 1.5 points advantage in compensated point differential is due to their +1.18 average turnover margin in those games, which a big portion of is random positive variance (i.e. luck). The Colts had a +0.56 average turnover margin in their 16 games in which they tried to win (and did win) and the projected turnover differential in this game is 0.44 in favor of the Saints (rather than the 0.62 actual difference between the two teams' turnover differential). The difference between the actual and projected turnover difference of the teams is worth 0.7 points in favor of the Colts, so adjusting the compensated point differentials for turnover variance would now predict the Saints by 0.8 points based purely on compensated and adjusted point differentials. That number would be Colts by just 0.8 points if the turnovers in this game are even. With my math model also slightly favoring the Saints (by 0.5 points) it appears as if the line on this game has been overly influenced by the Saints' late season failures and last week's unimpressive win. However, a lot of New Orleans' late season problems have been rectified with the return of cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter and last week's bad performance is most likely just a fluke. I know it's tough going against Peyton Manning, but Brees not only averaged a higher yards per pass play this season than Manning but he also threw fewer interceptions and has a better rushing attack to compliment his passing. The Colts also have their second best player, DE Dwight Freeney (and his 13.5 sacks), at far short of 100% with a torn ligament in his ankle and that could prove to be too much to overcome, as giving Brees time to throw the ball will likely be a problem for the Colts.
Many argue that the Saints' lack of Super Bowl experience will cause them to succumb to the pressure of the big game while Peyton Manning and the Colts, having won the Super Bowl a few years ago, will be more poised. That theory doesn't really hold water, as the last 5 teams without recent Super Bowl experience have covered the spread against a team that had recently been in (and won) the Super Bowl. New England started that trend with their upset over St. Louis (who had won the SB two years earlier) as a 14 point dog in SB 36. In Super Bowl's 38 and 39 the Super Bowl experienced Patriots failed to cover in 3 point wins over Carolina and Philadelphia. In Super Bowl 42 the New York Giants, who hadn't been to the big game in 7 years (and only a couple Giants had SB experience) upset the unbeaten Patriots as a 12 point dog. Last season the Arizona Cardinals, playing in their first Super Bowl, covered against a Pittsburgh team that has won the Championship just 3 years earlier with the same core of players. Teams that hadn't been to a Super Bowl in the previous 6 seasons are on a 9-2 ATS run against teams that had been to a Super Bowl within the last 5 years, so recent Super Bowl experience is not a plus for the Colts. There is just no way to justify the Colts being favored by 3 points or more in this game unless you're only going by last week's performances. While it's certainly possible that the Saints will play poorly again (and not be so lucky) it is likely that they'll play much closer to their normal high standards, and that will make it tough for the Colts to run away with this game. I'll take New Orleans in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7.
Over/Under
My math model, using projected statistics, projects 53.7 total points in this game and my compensated points model predicts 56.7 points. The line is 56.5 points and my projections do not account for the strong possibility that the Colts' Dwight Freeney will be less than 100% if he plays, or for the questionable status of Colts' CB Powers. If Freeney doesn't play, or isn't effective, then those math projections would go up about a point or so, so I don't feel comfortable giving an opinion on the total in this game, although Super Bowls with totals of 50 points or higher have gone 5-2 Under, including 4 consecutive Unders with a total that high.
Propositions
I didn't see any propositions worth playing, although I lean with Drew Brees not throwing an interception, which is +135 to +145 odds.
