THE GOLD SHEET
SUPER BOWL XLIV
It’s not often that what seems like an inevitable Super Bowl matchup actually
materializes. Indeed, this is the first time since the 1993 season that the
respective top seeds have emerged unscathed from their conference playoff
gauntlets to meet in the final showdown. Although it’s not the unprecedented
battle for the ages between unbeatens that this matchup teased at becoming as
late as mid-December, it is nonetheless one of the more compelling
championship collisions in recent memory, enhanced in part simply because
each avoided the sort of playoff banana peels that have caused numerous top
seeds to slip (including both the Titans and Giants a year ago at their first
postseason hurdles).
Though we are not convinced of greatness in either side, the oddsmakers
and wagering public seem to believe the billing more closely fits the Colts. We
also suspect that perceptions from the respective conference championship
games have something to do with the not-so-insignificant impost that saddles
Indy in the finale. That the Saints found some rather unconventional ways to
subdue the Vikings in the NFC title clash is probably why their chances appear
to have been slightly discounted in Miami.
Forgive us, however, for not being ready to bestow the “great” tag on this
particular Indy team...at least not yet. That’s not to say that we don’t consider
Peyton Manning as such, as his credentials for Canton are clearly set. But there
are enough things that this Colts team doesn’t do particularly well that make us
wonder about their ultimate championship credentials. Indy does not run the
football particularly well, or well at all, really, ranking 32nd and last in the league
during the regular season. Of course, a team with Manning at the controls
doesn’t necessarily need a chop-busting infantry to survive (as the Colts proved
in their title run three years ago), and Indy did generate a serviceable overland
component (101 YR) vs. the Jets in the AFC title game. But at a puny 3.5 ypc,
it’s not a diversion Manning can normally rely upon. Meanwhile, although the
rush defense somewhat contained the one-dimensional Jets two weeks ago, it
couldn’t consistently stop the run (ranking 24th while allowing 4.3 ypc) this
season. That same shortcoming didn’t stop the ‘06 Colts (who ranked last in
rush “D”) from winning it all, but it should be noted that particular Indy stop unit
got healthier toward the end of that campaign and had stemmed some of those
rush “D” leaks by playoff time. And it hasn’t prevented this Indy edition from
advancing to another Super Bowl, although we would suggest that after facing
the somewhat flawed offenses of the Ravens and Jets (and their very young
QBs) in the first two playoff rounds, the Colt “D” has yet to take on a truly
balanced and potent offensive force this postseason.
And the Saints appear capable of doing some things against this Indy
defense. Drew Brees has been at his best when complemented by his ground
game, something New Orleans should have confidence in establishing for the
finale. The Saints’ stout OL features All-Pros on the right side (G Jahri Evans
& T Jon Stinchcomb), and RBs Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, and Mike Bell
should all be relatively healthy after a week off. Although Jim Caldwell can
deploy lots of cornerbacks (including a previous Super Bowl hero, Kelvin
Hayden) to match up against New Orleans’ squadron of dangerous wideouts,
it’s Bush, in particular, who is often a make-or-break proposition for the Saints’
offense, especially in the passing game, and the Colts are going to be gambling
that one of their safeties (Antoine Bethea or Melvin Bullitt) can handle Reggie
in one-on-one situations. Indeed, Bush’s homerun capabilities (also as a
returner) are a dimension unique to this matchup. And despite the presence of
the menacing Dwight Freeney at DE, the Saints’ pass protection wasn’t a
problem this season when ranking a solid 4th best in sacks allowed, with Brees’
mobility (especially his uncanniness while throwing on the run) a dimension that
could further confound Caldwell’s defense.
Of course, dealing with Manning, who has been hot (623 YP & 5 TDP) in the
playoffs, is another matter for the Saints, although many respected sources
believe Gregg Williams’ stop unit is constructed as well as any to slow down the
Colts attack. With his quick release and sterling protection (Indy allowed the
league’s fewest sacks), Manning is not easy to disrupt. But Manning is human
and is still relying on some relatively-green, albeit impressive, receiving targets
in rookie Austin Collie and 2nd-year Pierre Garcon, and is likely to get hit by New
Orleans’ aggressive pass rushers, who eventually made Brett Favre pay in the
NFC title game. And the Saints have plenty of difference-makers in their ballhawking
secondary, including big-play FS Darren Sharper, with 3 interception
TDs TY and a potential elixir for one of Manning’s favorite targets, TE Dallas
Clark. Those seven forced TOs (against seasoned vets like Kurt Warner and
Favre) in the playoffs also suggest that Williams’ now-healthy D” has
rediscovered the mojo that made it so effective the first half of the season.
Although New Orleans was considered fortunate by many to escape the
Viking threat in the NFC title game, we thought the resourcefulness the Saints
exhibited in overcoming such a stout opponent spoke volumes about their
chemistry and fortitude, something Indy hasn’t had to similarly demonstrate in
the postseason. We suspect that New Orleans might have already beaten a
better team (Minnesota) than the Colts to reach the finale. Getting a bonus from
the oddsmakers is nice, but we don’t think it will be necessary for Saints
backers to cash their tickets.
TGS SCORE FORECAST:
NEW ORLEANS 34 - Indianapolis 27
“TOTALS” note...Although the posted “total” is sitting rather high at 56½ at
our press time, we foresee a likelihood of the defenses and special teams
getting involved in the scoring act, which can serve to inflate the ultimate
scoreline. And given the potent offenses involved, there seem to be more ways
this game can go “over” than “under.”
SUPER BOWL XLIV
It’s not often that what seems like an inevitable Super Bowl matchup actually
materializes. Indeed, this is the first time since the 1993 season that the
respective top seeds have emerged unscathed from their conference playoff
gauntlets to meet in the final showdown. Although it’s not the unprecedented
battle for the ages between unbeatens that this matchup teased at becoming as
late as mid-December, it is nonetheless one of the more compelling
championship collisions in recent memory, enhanced in part simply because
each avoided the sort of playoff banana peels that have caused numerous top
seeds to slip (including both the Titans and Giants a year ago at their first
postseason hurdles).
Though we are not convinced of greatness in either side, the oddsmakers
and wagering public seem to believe the billing more closely fits the Colts. We
also suspect that perceptions from the respective conference championship
games have something to do with the not-so-insignificant impost that saddles
Indy in the finale. That the Saints found some rather unconventional ways to
subdue the Vikings in the NFC title clash is probably why their chances appear
to have been slightly discounted in Miami.
Forgive us, however, for not being ready to bestow the “great” tag on this
particular Indy team...at least not yet. That’s not to say that we don’t consider
Peyton Manning as such, as his credentials for Canton are clearly set. But there
are enough things that this Colts team doesn’t do particularly well that make us
wonder about their ultimate championship credentials. Indy does not run the
football particularly well, or well at all, really, ranking 32nd and last in the league
during the regular season. Of course, a team with Manning at the controls
doesn’t necessarily need a chop-busting infantry to survive (as the Colts proved
in their title run three years ago), and Indy did generate a serviceable overland
component (101 YR) vs. the Jets in the AFC title game. But at a puny 3.5 ypc,
it’s not a diversion Manning can normally rely upon. Meanwhile, although the
rush defense somewhat contained the one-dimensional Jets two weeks ago, it
couldn’t consistently stop the run (ranking 24th while allowing 4.3 ypc) this
season. That same shortcoming didn’t stop the ‘06 Colts (who ranked last in
rush “D”) from winning it all, but it should be noted that particular Indy stop unit
got healthier toward the end of that campaign and had stemmed some of those
rush “D” leaks by playoff time. And it hasn’t prevented this Indy edition from
advancing to another Super Bowl, although we would suggest that after facing
the somewhat flawed offenses of the Ravens and Jets (and their very young
QBs) in the first two playoff rounds, the Colt “D” has yet to take on a truly
balanced and potent offensive force this postseason.
And the Saints appear capable of doing some things against this Indy
defense. Drew Brees has been at his best when complemented by his ground
game, something New Orleans should have confidence in establishing for the
finale. The Saints’ stout OL features All-Pros on the right side (G Jahri Evans
& T Jon Stinchcomb), and RBs Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, and Mike Bell
should all be relatively healthy after a week off. Although Jim Caldwell can
deploy lots of cornerbacks (including a previous Super Bowl hero, Kelvin
Hayden) to match up against New Orleans’ squadron of dangerous wideouts,
it’s Bush, in particular, who is often a make-or-break proposition for the Saints’
offense, especially in the passing game, and the Colts are going to be gambling
that one of their safeties (Antoine Bethea or Melvin Bullitt) can handle Reggie
in one-on-one situations. Indeed, Bush’s homerun capabilities (also as a
returner) are a dimension unique to this matchup. And despite the presence of
the menacing Dwight Freeney at DE, the Saints’ pass protection wasn’t a
problem this season when ranking a solid 4th best in sacks allowed, with Brees’
mobility (especially his uncanniness while throwing on the run) a dimension that
could further confound Caldwell’s defense.
Of course, dealing with Manning, who has been hot (623 YP & 5 TDP) in the
playoffs, is another matter for the Saints, although many respected sources
believe Gregg Williams’ stop unit is constructed as well as any to slow down the
Colts attack. With his quick release and sterling protection (Indy allowed the
league’s fewest sacks), Manning is not easy to disrupt. But Manning is human
and is still relying on some relatively-green, albeit impressive, receiving targets
in rookie Austin Collie and 2nd-year Pierre Garcon, and is likely to get hit by New
Orleans’ aggressive pass rushers, who eventually made Brett Favre pay in the
NFC title game. And the Saints have plenty of difference-makers in their ballhawking
secondary, including big-play FS Darren Sharper, with 3 interception
TDs TY and a potential elixir for one of Manning’s favorite targets, TE Dallas
Clark. Those seven forced TOs (against seasoned vets like Kurt Warner and
Favre) in the playoffs also suggest that Williams’ now-healthy D” has
rediscovered the mojo that made it so effective the first half of the season.
Although New Orleans was considered fortunate by many to escape the
Viking threat in the NFC title game, we thought the resourcefulness the Saints
exhibited in overcoming such a stout opponent spoke volumes about their
chemistry and fortitude, something Indy hasn’t had to similarly demonstrate in
the postseason. We suspect that New Orleans might have already beaten a
better team (Minnesota) than the Colts to reach the finale. Getting a bonus from
the oddsmakers is nice, but we don’t think it will be necessary for Saints
backers to cash their tickets.
TGS SCORE FORECAST:
NEW ORLEANS 34 - Indianapolis 27
“TOTALS” note...Although the posted “total” is sitting rather high at 56½ at
our press time, we foresee a likelihood of the defenses and special teams
getting involved in the scoring act, which can serve to inflate the ultimate
scoreline. And given the potent offenses involved, there seem to be more ways
this game can go “over” than “under.”
