Chad Millman WITH STEVE FEZZIK ( BACK TO BACK HILTON WINNER )
This is it, compadres. The reason we're here. The biggest, baddest betting day of the
year. The kind of day when every second of the Super Bowl can make you or break
you. No joke.
What LeBron James does Saturday can impact a bet you have for Super Bowl
Sunday. How long it takes Carrie Underwood to sing the national anthem is a
potential moneymaker. The color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning coach and
who does the dumping can be worth a couple of bucks.
Really, these bets only serve to the make game more interesting; they are not why
we're watching. The heavy chaw of Super Bowl betting is on the plays, players and
the game. It's when an entire season's worth of weekends spent on the couch, of late
Thursday nights watching the Cleveland Browns, of tracking player stats online at
work when you should be sending your spreadsheets to accounting comes together.
Basically, it's not just the players' final exam; it's yours.
Did you learn enough during the season to know if a prop on Drew Brees throwing
for more than 289.5 yards should be bet over or under? Do you have enough of a feel
for the Colts' offense to know if they'll try a field goal from further than 43 yards? (If
you don't, read this article.)
Honestly, these are things you need to know right now. This second. As you read this.
Quick. You need to know the answers without thinking, like who gave you your first
kiss or where you were the first time you heard Bono belt out "Sunday Bloody
Sunday" (Brian Spagat's house. We were watching MTV. It was the "Live at Red
Rocks" video. We spent most of the night waiting for it to come back on and calling
Sportsphone -- 976-1313 -- for updates on the Philadelphia 76ers-versus-Boston
Celtics score from that night. He loved Bird. I loved Dr. J. And now I've lost the
under-35 crowd.)
Anyway, since this Sunday is different than all other Sundays, the way this game is
bet is different, too. Therefore, this won't be the usual NFL Line Moves column I've
been doing all season.
This game is about more than how the spread changes and which side the wiseguys
are playing. It's about the props. It's about the money line. It's about the public's
expectations. That's why I'm breaking it down from three sides with a gaggle of
experts.
For the props, I checked in with Fezzik, winner of the Hilton's handicapping contest
two years running. He also happens to love playing proposition bets. I also asked Ed
Salmons, bookmaker at the Hilton -- home to the most props on The Strip -- for some
insight into what the sharps are betting. For the money line, I asked RJ Bell, who runs
the sports info site Pregame.com, to help me out. And for the up and down moves this
line has been making the past two weeks, I called handicapper Bryan Leonard.
Away we go.
The money line
Here's a quick money-line primer: It's a straight-up bet in which it costs more to bet
the favorite than it does the underdog. For example, the money line on the Colts is in
the vicinity of minus-210. The Saints are around plus-185. That means you need to
bet $210 to win $100 on the Colts, if they win. Meanwhile, a $100 bet on the Saints
will win you $185 if they get the Lombardi Trophy.
Normally, the money line for a team that is a five-point favorite would be in the
minus-240 range; for the Super Bowl, the money line on the favorites is always
cheaper. This has been happening for about a decade, no matter what the spread is.
This is because, more than any other game of the year, casual bettors come in with
piles of dough, and they want to play the underdog. While most bookmakers will
gamble a little with their lines and odds, they don't want completely lopsided books.
They make the cheaper money line so wiseguys will buy some of that and counter the
squares -- i.e., you and me -- who are playing the dog straight-up.
Every wiseguy I spoke with the past two weeks told me he was playing the Colts
money line because the offer was so good. "Some pro bettors, understanding that
money lines are mispriced for the Super Bowl, will bet the favorite on the money line
and -- as a hedge -- the underdog on the point spread, creating an arbitrage," Bell
says. "The casual fan won't want to do that, but if you want to bet like a pro, go pointspread
route if you like the underdog, and if you like the favorite go with the money
line."
Or do both. Then you can get the middle when the Colts win and the Saints cover.
The line moves
When this line opened the Sunday night after the conference championship games at
Colts minus-3.5 it shot straight for the top the Stratosphere. It was minus-5.5 before
the night was over. With a flood of public money expected for this weekend,
bookmakers and wiseguys were thinking this line was going to settle on Colts minus-7
and just sit there.
But then Dwight Freeney's ankle became the Super Bowl's big subplot. Suddenly,
everyone stopped talking about Peyton Manning and realized the Colts' D might be
suspect without its best player. Any wiseguy money that was waiting for the spread to
inch higher -- and most were, since they all saw value in the Saints at plus-6 --
pounced on the plus-5.5 that was available.
Soon it was at Saints plus-5, then Saints plus-4.5. A flood of wiseguy money pushed it
back to Saints plus-5, which is where it has settled, waiting for the big rush of squares.
"Just about everyone I talked to thinks the Colts win this game," Bryan Leonard says.
"I am in agreement. But if the line gets to seven because of all the public taking the
Colts, there will be plenty of value on the Saints. Really, just about everyone I know
is waiting for the money line to go down."
Prop betting
First from Ed Salmons, who gave me some info on which props the wiseguys were
playing early in the week.
1. Pierre Thomas over 48.5 rushing yards and 51.5 rushing yards: This makes
sense. The Saints were one of the best rushing teams in the league this past season.
Also, Thomas beat the 48.5-yard plateau in ten games and the 51.5 in nine. He topped
both numbers in the Saints' two playoff wins.
2. Colts rushing yards under 100.5 and 98.5: The one thing every wiseguy has told
me in every line moves column this year is that they faded the Colts because they
can't run the ball. So this is nothing more than the wiseguys playing the metric they've
been betting on all season. By the way, Indy averaged only 80.9 yards per game
rushing.
3. Drew Brees to throw a TD pass in the fourth quarter at a money line of
plus-105: As I pointed out above, wiseguys see the Colts winning but the Saints
covering. Given that they think it will be a close game, a Brees touchdown in the
fourth quarter is a logical bet. This past season, he threw seven fourth-quarter
touchdowns. His highest total was 17 in the second quarter. Wiseguys are on that bet,
too.
Time for Fezzik to weigh in. He has lots of thoughts.
1. "I have frantically been buying the Saints plus a half-point in every quarter. The
Saints' cornerbacks were hurt towards the end of the year and struggled. Now they're
healthy and I am out of my mind to be thinking they won't be bringing much more
defensive intensity. I bought a lot of the Colts first half and money line early in the
week, but I've been looking for Saints the past few days because of Freeney."
2. "The longest field goal under 43.5 is really good. These teams don't try long field
goals. They know they need touchdowns to win their games. Also, generally games
listed with high totals have lots of touchdowns and few field goals."
3. "The Saints to have more rushing yards than the Colts. This one feels kind of
obvious. But the Colts can't run the ball."
4. "Reggie Bush's total receiving yards, if you can get it in the mid- to high 20s. I
wouldn't go over that. But he seems to be healthier than he's been and I expect him to
get a lot of touches."
5. "Drew Brees to win the MVP at plus-300. This is a needle-in-the-haystack bet. It's
a clever way to bet the Saints money line and get 3-1 instead of the plus-185 that is
being offered. Because I can't see any way they win the Super Bowl and he doesn't
win the MVP. So if you bet this, you are basically betting on the Saints to win it all."
6. "Generally, don't bet the plus money on props. The moves in the odds on props are
from the public and it tends to bet on the underdog, so the value is usually on the
minus-money. If you interview the average dum-dum, he will bet the matchstick to
win the lumber yard, meaning he'd like to bet a little to win a lot, even if the better
value is on the other side. So the minus is usually the better price."
So don't be the dum-dum. And have a good game.
