Carlo Campanella COMP
New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts
Every year you hear that "defenses wins Championships," but this season the Super Bowl features the two most explosive offenses in the NFL. The Colts offense is led by veteran QB Manning and averaging 25.9 points and 363.1 yards per game while scoring at least 27 points in 6 of their 8 road efforts this year. In fact, we find the Saints defense allowing 22 points or more in 5 of their 8 road games and posting a 10-2 Over/Under record against teams averaging 350 or more offensive yards per game behind Head Coach Sean Payton! On the other side of the ball, the Saints offense is led by QB Drew Brees and averaging an incredible 32.6 points per game. Don't expect these high powered offenses to slow down on the road in Miami this Sunday as both of these squads were 7-1 SU on the road this year. The Saints went "Over" the Total in both of their Playoff games while putting up 76 points in the postseason, beating Arizona 45-14 and Minnesota 31-28. The Saints have now gone "Over" in ALL 7 postseason games in franchise history, and this season's two "Overs" improved New Orleans to 7-0 Over/Under during postseason play!
7* Play On OVER 56½
New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts
Every year you hear that "defenses wins Championships," but this season the Super Bowl features the two most explosive offenses in the NFL. The Colts offense is led by veteran QB Manning and averaging 25.9 points and 363.1 yards per game while scoring at least 27 points in 6 of their 8 road efforts this year. In fact, we find the Saints defense allowing 22 points or more in 5 of their 8 road games and posting a 10-2 Over/Under record against teams averaging 350 or more offensive yards per game behind Head Coach Sean Payton! On the other side of the ball, the Saints offense is led by QB Drew Brees and averaging an incredible 32.6 points per game. Don't expect these high powered offenses to slow down on the road in Miami this Sunday as both of these squads were 7-1 SU on the road this year. The Saints went "Over" the Total in both of their Playoff games while putting up 76 points in the postseason, beating Arizona 45-14 and Minnesota 31-28. The Saints have now gone "Over" in ALL 7 postseason games in franchise history, and this season's two "Overs" improved New Orleans to 7-0 Over/Under during postseason play!
7* Play On OVER 56½
SEAN MURPHY
Player to win the Super Bowl MVP: Reggie Bush (+1400)
How can you not like Reggie Bush at these odds?
The stage isn’t too big for the Saints all-purpose running back. Remember, he was a part of the Saints squad that reached the NFC Championship three years ago. He’s also been involved in a college football national championship game.
The beauty of backing a guy like Bush in the MVP category is that he’s a triple threat – rushing, receiving and returning. He has already accrued a touchdown in each category during these playoffs.
In an effort to counteract the Colts defensive team speed, I expect Bush to be a big part of the Saints offensive gameplan on Sunday.
While Drew Brees is certainly the favorite to win this award should the Saints prevail, Bush is an outstanding sleeper selection, much like Santonio Holmes was last year.
Most pass completions: Peyton Manning -0.5 (+105)
Match Brees and Manning up in these playoffs, and Peyton has a 56-40 edge in terms of pass completions.
We can make the case that Manning has faced two tougher pass defenses as well, in the Ravens and Jets. Brees has encountered a pair of excellent pass rushing teams in the Cardinals and Vikings, but they by no means possess ‘shut-down’ pass defenses.
If either team is going to lean more on its ground attack this week, it will be the Saints. They have an excellent stable of backs running behind an offensive line that excels at run-blocking.
The Saints will make a concerted effort to execute long drives with a balanced attack in order to keep Peyton Manning off the field.
I’m not sure the same can be said for the Colts. They’ll stick with what works by relying heavily on Manning’s arm to move the ball down the field.
We’re likely going to see a close game and that diminishes the edge that either quarterback has in terms of playing from behind. Watch for both Brees and Manning to approach 30 completions, but I’ll give the nod to the guy that’s been here, and won, before.
Total number of field goals missed by both teams: Over 1 (+385)
In a matchup between an inexperienced Garrett Hartley and an aging Matt Stover, I’ll take my chances with the over.
What will happen first for New Orleans (score or punt): Punt (+100)
Something tells me it will take a couple of possessions before the Saints adjust to the Colts speed on defense.
Will Indianapolis score in every quarter: Yes (+130)
I like the way the Colts offense matches up against the Saints defense. Long, clock-eating drives could be our only downfall.
Total number of players to attempt a pass: Over 2.5 (+240)
Give these offensive coordinators two weeks to prepare and they’ll add a few wrinkles. Here’s hoping one includes a halfback or wide receiver pass play. Note that this line was set at +170 last year.
Total number of pass interceptions by both teams: Over 2.5 (+180)
Have we ever seen a Super Bowl quarterback matchup generate as much hype as this one? Lots of pass attempts mean lots of opportunities for two ball-hawking secondaries.
Will Reggie Bush score a touchdown in the game: Yes (+150)
This goes hand-in-hand with my MVP prediction. Bush is a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the football, as evidenced by his three touchdowns this postseason.
Player to win the Super Bowl MVP: Reggie Bush (+1400)
How can you not like Reggie Bush at these odds?
The stage isn’t too big for the Saints all-purpose running back. Remember, he was a part of the Saints squad that reached the NFC Championship three years ago. He’s also been involved in a college football national championship game.
The beauty of backing a guy like Bush in the MVP category is that he’s a triple threat – rushing, receiving and returning. He has already accrued a touchdown in each category during these playoffs.
In an effort to counteract the Colts defensive team speed, I expect Bush to be a big part of the Saints offensive gameplan on Sunday.
While Drew Brees is certainly the favorite to win this award should the Saints prevail, Bush is an outstanding sleeper selection, much like Santonio Holmes was last year.
Most pass completions: Peyton Manning -0.5 (+105)
Match Brees and Manning up in these playoffs, and Peyton has a 56-40 edge in terms of pass completions.
We can make the case that Manning has faced two tougher pass defenses as well, in the Ravens and Jets. Brees has encountered a pair of excellent pass rushing teams in the Cardinals and Vikings, but they by no means possess ‘shut-down’ pass defenses.
If either team is going to lean more on its ground attack this week, it will be the Saints. They have an excellent stable of backs running behind an offensive line that excels at run-blocking.
The Saints will make a concerted effort to execute long drives with a balanced attack in order to keep Peyton Manning off the field.
I’m not sure the same can be said for the Colts. They’ll stick with what works by relying heavily on Manning’s arm to move the ball down the field.
We’re likely going to see a close game and that diminishes the edge that either quarterback has in terms of playing from behind. Watch for both Brees and Manning to approach 30 completions, but I’ll give the nod to the guy that’s been here, and won, before.
Total number of field goals missed by both teams: Over 1 (+385)
In a matchup between an inexperienced Garrett Hartley and an aging Matt Stover, I’ll take my chances with the over.
What will happen first for New Orleans (score or punt): Punt (+100)
Something tells me it will take a couple of possessions before the Saints adjust to the Colts speed on defense.
Will Indianapolis score in every quarter: Yes (+130)
I like the way the Colts offense matches up against the Saints defense. Long, clock-eating drives could be our only downfall.
Total number of players to attempt a pass: Over 2.5 (+240)
Give these offensive coordinators two weeks to prepare and they’ll add a few wrinkles. Here’s hoping one includes a halfback or wide receiver pass play. Note that this line was set at +170 last year.
Total number of pass interceptions by both teams: Over 2.5 (+180)
Have we ever seen a Super Bowl quarterback matchup generate as much hype as this one? Lots of pass attempts mean lots of opportunities for two ball-hawking secondaries.
Will Reggie Bush score a touchdown in the game: Yes (+150)
This goes hand-in-hand with my MVP prediction. Bush is a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the football, as evidenced by his three touchdowns this postseason.
FantasySportsGametime
Sunday Football
NFL Football
1000* Play New Orleans (+5) over Indianapolis
Game starts at 6:25 PM EST
New Orleans has won 8 consecutive games coming off an OVER the total and they have also won and covered the spread in 4 consecutive games vs. non-conference opponents. New Orleans has won 10 of the last 11 games when the total posted is greater than 49.5 points and they are averaging over 32 points a game on offense this season.
SUPER BOWL PROP PLAYS
Coin Toss (Play Tails)
Will there be a special teams or defensive touchdown (Play Yes +130)
Longest Score of the game…touchdown or field goal (Play touchdown -180)
Total passing yards by Drew Brees (Play OVER 284.5 yards)
Total rushing yards by Pierre Thomas (Play OVER 52.5 rushing yards)
Will Saints score in both 1st & 2nd quarter (Play YES -125)
Total number of Saints to catch a pass (Play OVER 7.5 players to catch pass)
Total number of yards on offense by Saints in the game (Play OVER 379 yards in the game)
Player to score 1st TD in game (Play Pierre Thomas +400 & Marques Colston +650)
Sunday Football
NFL Football
1000* Play New Orleans (+5) over Indianapolis
Game starts at 6:25 PM EST
New Orleans has won 8 consecutive games coming off an OVER the total and they have also won and covered the spread in 4 consecutive games vs. non-conference opponents. New Orleans has won 10 of the last 11 games when the total posted is greater than 49.5 points and they are averaging over 32 points a game on offense this season.
SUPER BOWL PROP PLAYS
Coin Toss (Play Tails)
Will there be a special teams or defensive touchdown (Play Yes +130)
Longest Score of the game…touchdown or field goal (Play touchdown -180)
Total passing yards by Drew Brees (Play OVER 284.5 yards)
Total rushing yards by Pierre Thomas (Play OVER 52.5 rushing yards)
Will Saints score in both 1st & 2nd quarter (Play YES -125)
Total number of Saints to catch a pass (Play OVER 7.5 players to catch pass)
Total number of yards on offense by Saints in the game (Play OVER 379 yards in the game)
Player to score 1st TD in game (Play Pierre Thomas +400 & Marques Colston +650)
