Malinsky
February +5 Units
NBA -94.0 Units YTD
CBB -54.2 Units YTD
4* #809 SYRACUSE over CINCINNATI
These teams may physically look the same when they take the court for the opening tipoff – they each bring among the biggest and toughest front lines in the nation. But there is a monstrous gap in basketball skills between Jim Boeheim’s Orangemen and Mick Cronin’s Bearcats, and we believe the markets are far short in their estimate.Yes, Cincinnati has plenty of athleticism and depth, and as such is sitting at 5-5 in the tough Big East. But first take that record with a grain of salt – the Bearcats have gone through those 10 games without facing any of the four best teams in the league (Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia and Georgetown). They are tough around the basket, but can not shoot a lick from long range (outside of Deonta Vaughn, all other Bearcats are 28-111 from 3-point range in conference play), and those unsettled defensive rotations are being consistently broken down, allowing an awful ratio of 135 assists vs. only 91 TO’s. It is that lack of chemistry that is the major issue here – Vaughn is the only Bearcat that has started all 10 conference games, and nine other players have at least one start. Inconsistency has been a major issue, and there is also a question as to just how good of a handle Cronin has on his roster (out-takes from a press conference earlier this week- <i>”He (Lance Stephenson) struggles to focus. His attention to detail drifts at times, way too much. His defense has really dropped off recently … Lance is a freshman. He’s going to struggle. That’s just part of it . . . You can understand that with some of the younger guys. But with some of the older guys … Steve Toyloy, every game he needs to be a good rebounder and a good defender. That’s just one example. The guy’s a senior.”</i>)You might be able to hold your own vs. the lower echelon of the Big east on raw athletic talent, but not this opponent. Is there anyone playing with better chemistry that Syracuse? Boeheim has seven talented players going more than 21 minutes per game in Big East play, and they are both shooting better than 50 percent, and allowing less than 40 percent, which is remarkable in this conference. Four of the seven players in the rotation are averaging more than two assists per game, and four of the seven are scoring in double figures, with everyone netting at least 7.5. The real key today is the defense, with the bulk of Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson around the basket, and the excellent wing spans on the perimeter, making this Boeheim’s best 2-3 zone yet, and that zone is the ideal tool to choke off a Cincinnai team that lacks quality PG play, and is so erratic from the perimeter. Look for the polish and precision of the Orange to pull away from the inconsistent host to get a win much easier than what the markets are projecting.
4* #812 MARYLAND/NORTH CAROLINA Under
A high intensity frenzy as the presses of Gary Williams take on the fast break of Roy Williams? That is how they are pricing this one, but the realities are different. The atmosphere is going to be much different because of the major weekend storm (the Maryland Athletic Department has told all fans to not drive to the game, and will try to fill the arena out by getting more students to attend), and those same storms are also going to create some heavy legs on the floor. But more than anything else, the markets are not reacting well to just how these teams are playing this season.Both North Carolina and Maryland have played seven A.C.C. games, with the Tar Heels playing to an average of 143.3 and the Terrapins 138.9. Neither had played a game that finished higher than 152 in regulation. And that is not going to change in February, with neither side having the kind of depth to play the way that they are accustomed to.Maryland has and eight-player rotation, and it has been all about defense – the Terps are holding conference opponents to 38.8 percent from the field, and 29.8 from 3-point range. That defense has only allowed 73 assists through those seven games, while forcing 109 turnovers, and they can create havoc for a misfiring Carolina offense that is shooting only 42.9 percent in A.C.C. play, and is -25 in assists to TO’s. But while the Tar Heel offensive chemistry may not come together this season, the defense should become a force down the stretch, with those long wingspans all the way around leaving little operating room for the opposition.As for the physical energy of the players, for once we might even see Roy Williams shifting into a lower gear. Friday was supposed to be a day of rest in Chapel Hill after Thursday’s loss at Virginia Tech, but to get ahead of the storm North Carolina traveled to Maryland that same day. Most of Saturday was spent snowed in at a hotel a few miles from the Comcast Center, but they finally managed to get transportation for a light practice late in the afternoon. At least they got to come and go – Gary Williams has slept at the Arena each of the last two nights