Soccer experiment

[quantumleap]

Energie 2, Hamburger 0, WINNER, +0.69
Hansa 1, Bayer 2, Loss, -1.00
Berlin 1, Nurnberg 0, WINNER, +0.70
Le Mans 0, Marseille 0, WINNER, +0.72
Cobh 0, Bohemians 1, Loss, -1.00

Today: 3-2, +0.11

YTD: +3.43

One match to watch in the Brasilero Serie A league is Sao Paulo over Gremio. SP started out at -114 at most books with other books at -167 so this would fit the system. However, recently most books have moved to -144 while the other shops remain at -167. It will be interesting to see that if a team starts out in the system and most books move whether it will be a winner. In this thread when the spread has been forty seven points or more for home favorites the result is eighteen and one. If a strict fifty points is observed it's seventeen and zero since the only home favorite of forty seven points to lose was Vitoria Setubal. River Plate had a separation of forty seven or forty eight points so that winner would have to be thrown out as well.

Weekly summary to come shortly.

 

[quantumleap]

5/4: 4-1, +2.03
5/5: 1-0, +0.55
5/6: 3-1, +1.24
5/7: 4-1, +0.77
5/8: 3-2, +0.34
5/9: 1-0, +0.93
5/10: 3-2, +0.11

Total for the week: 19-7, +5.97

 

[quantumleap]

England - Premier League
Tottenham -1/2 +174 over Liverpool (0.4 units)
Liverpool/Tottenham draw +225 (0.6 units)
+174/+125

Spain - Primera
Levante +1/2 +122 over Valencia
+422/+285

Germany - Bundesliga 2
Offenbacher +1/2 -115 over Hoffenheim
+307/+200

Sweden - Allsvenskan
Trelleborgs FF +256 over Helsingborgs IF (0.4 units)
Helsingborgs IF/Trelleborgs FF draw +233 (0.6 units)
+256/+190

 

[quantumleap]

This thread is all about finding value so I will post a couple observations here and see if these have any value in the future.

There were 3 matches that I stayed away from because the prices were way too much but all 3 won. Two extra large favorites (Roma -403 and Celtic -358) that I didn't feel were worth betting on because the return wasn't worth the risk. One extra large dog (Carl Zeiss +440) that I felt was too risky even though I bet Levante at +422. Maybe I'll include large favorites up to -400 in the future.

I also found an interesting match in the Brazilian league between Atletico and Fluminense. Atletico has a spread of -106/-145 which is only 39 points and doesn't fit the system. However, the major books have Fluminense at +263 and the safe books have it at +300. Usually the safe books discount the price instead of offering to pay more for the side. So the total difference is more than 50 points. I think in some cases I will mentione what the opponent is priced at if the safe books are giving a better price as I have done with Santos below. This match just an observation for now and won't count toward the record.

These will count:

Spain - Primera
Betis Sevilla +1/2 -119 over FC Sevilla
+280/+220

Brazil - Serie A
Flamengo -1/2 -143 over Santos
-143/-215 (Santos is at +424/+435)

 

[quantumleap]

First negative day in over a week.

I mentioned Atletico being a 37 point spread but also had other indicators. They had a 0-0 draw. I'll continue to keep an eye on that factor.

Tottenham 0, Liverpool 2, Loss, -1.00
Levante 1, Valencia 5, :scared:, Loss, -1.00
Offenbacher 1, Hoffenheim 1, WINNER, +0.87
Trelleborg 1, Helsingborg 3, Loss, -1.00
Betis Sevilla 0, FC Sevilla 2, Loss, -1.00
Flamengo 3, Santos 1, WINNER, +0.70
(Favorites continue to do very well.)

Today: 2-4, -2.43

YTD: +1.00

 

[quantumleap]

Finland - Veikkausliga
HJK Helsinki -320 over KUPS
-320/-400

 

[quantumleap]

Finland - Veikkausliga
HJK Helsinki -320 over KUPS
-320/-400

Helsinki 0, KUPS 0, Loss, -1.00
First home favorite to lose in a while.

YTD: 0.00

 

[quantumleap]

Brazil - Copa do Brasil
Corinthians -1/2 +116 over Sao Caetano
+116/-133

Corinthians is on the road here. Recently I've been taking only home teams. However, since this is a Cup contest I will go with the road team.

 

[quantumleap]

Corinthians 3, Sao Caetano 1, WINNER, +1.16

YTD: +1.16

 

[EricTheMidget]

shit, i thought the match was tomorrow.

got anything for tomorrow?

 

[quantumleap]

shit, i thought the match was tomorrow.

got anything for tomorrow?

Nothing for Wednesday Eric. Looks like there will be a bit of action on Thursday and Friday.

 

[hm2.0]

QL, do you delve into the lower rung Latin American leagues...have you ever looked into the more obscure Peruvian Primera Division?

I mention this as Su. I watched a bit of this match b/w 2 clubs. The rinky-dink venue looked like it was on the fairgrounds where the rodeo and circus visit when they come to town. I was looking for the goats and burros in the crowd.

I wouldn't mind adding an obscure league like this as I am seriously thinking of adding the English Premiere League, Ligue 1, Serie A, etc. to my docket. Maybe a couple of the major ligas and an off-beat one. :lolBIG:

 

[quantumleap]

QL, do you delve into the lower rung Latin American leagues...have you ever looked into the more obscure Peruvian Primera Division?

I mention this as Su. I watched a bit of this match b/w 2 clubs. The rinky-dink venue looked like it was on the fairgrounds where the rodeo and circus visit when they come to town. I was looking for the goats and burros in the crowd.

I wouldn't mind adding an obscure league like this as I am seriously thinking of adding the English Premiere League, Ligue 1, Serie A, etc. to my docket. Maybe a couple of the major ligas and an off-beat one. :lolBIG:

I took a look at the lower Scottish leagues once at winbet's suggestion. I believe it really takes a lot of effort to get to know a league well and at the time I was spending a lot of time on other leagues as well so I didn't master them.

That's why I resigned myself to pretty much limiting my independent picks to the Swedish leagues. Even this system thread is taking quite a bit of my time and seems to be limiting my picks in my European Football thread.

One other league I've been following is the Irish Eircom league. I'm using Paddy Power as the sharp book and betting books that differ with a better price.

 

[quantumleap]

I found one at -280. I'm thinking about putting a limit at -250 as most people are reluctant to bet above that line.

Copa Libertadores
Boca Juniors -1/2 -280 over Atlas
-280/-345

 

[redatmosphere]

Hey quantumleap,

I've been following your experiment since you started it. I think you could be on to something here...but I think you could benefit from some statistics. I have some ideas...but I would need someone to point me in the right direction to get the statistics. Anyhow, if you want to collaborate...let me know. Otherwise, good work and I think you have something good going here.

 

[quantumleap]

Hey quantumleap,

I've been following your experiment since you started it. I think you could be on to something here...but I think you could benefit from some statistics. I have some ideas...but I would need someone to point me in the right direction to get the statistics. Anyhow, if you want to collaborate...let me know. Otherwise, good work and I think you have something good going here.

redatmosphere, any ideas are more than welcome. The 2 major web sites where I get my scores and tables from are www.sfstats.net and www.soccerway.com. I'm not sure if they have the stats you are looking for. Let me know if that's not what you are looking for.

You may see that my YTD for this system is right around 0.00. But that includes some failed aspects of the system such as road teams and also has included a couple home favorites at -1 instead of -1/2.

If you've been following it from the start you may have noticed that home favorites at -1/2 have been doing rather well. They are not all above -250 either. I think 12 of them are less than -250, 2 are right at -250 and 4 are over -250. I'm am continuing to include the home dogs as well to see if that system may be viable in the long run.

 

[redatmosphere]

Hey, so I think looking at home teams is a really strong idea. I have a friend who does pretty well at MLB and ONLY takes the home teams, regardless if they're dogs or not. I really like your system and where it's going. I think I might try looking at the smaller leagues and seeing what I can find for the o/u. If you want, we can talk a little further about ideas. Email me if you want

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Thank you, wilheim.

 

[redatmosphere]

After playing around with some numbers for a little while here's what I can come up with for today...let's see how it works.

Chile Primera Division (Playoff)
Audax Italiano vs. CD Everton Over 3 (-129)

 

[quantumleap]

Mods, feel free to give redatmosphere my email address.

 

[quantumleap]

Boca 2, Atlas 2, Loss, -1.00

Another late goal sinks my bet!



YTD: +0.16