Soccer experiment

[quantumleap]

i like it...

Thanks for the feedback chris.

We have another scenario just like we had with Horsens yesterday, that being a team that defends well at home. Bochum has only lost once at home and yet we are getting a decent price on the +1/2.

Schalke does concern me though. They are 1 point out of 2nd and will be looking to pick up some points here since there are only 3 matches left in the season.

 

[quantumleap]

Perhaps I should have waited to post the Bochum line. It's at +384 at some books now and the +1/2 is at +114.

 

[quantumleap]

I've never included the Swiss league before but here goes.

Switzerland - Axpo Superleague
FC Zurich -152 over FC St. Gallen
-152 vs. -200 (48 points but close enough to 50)

Neuchatel Xamax FC +1/2 +109 over FC Basel
+364 vs. +285
These large home dogs always concern me.

 

[quantumleap]

Copa Libertadores
Fluminense -205 over Atletico Nacional
-205 vs. -265

 

[quantumleap]

Bochum 0, Schalke 3, Loss, -1.00
Neuchatel 2, Basel 2, WINNER, +1.09
FC Zurich 1, St. Gallen 0, WINNER, +0.66
Fluminense 1, Atletico 0, WINNER, +0.49

Today: 3-1, +1.24
YTD: +1.79

Last 3 days after adjusting system: 8-2, +4.40

 

[quantumleap]

Nothing but home chalk on the radar but in the last 3 days home chalk has gone 4-0, +1.97. I'm waiting on 2 home favorites to move even farther in my favor so I'll post them later. They are La Coruna currently at -258 and Lyon currently at -253. I hope to get them each at -250.

I'm also looking at Racing Santander. Currently they are at +183 compared to +140 which is only 43 points. If it gets to 50 points I'll bet it.

For now, I only have one whose price is stable so I'll bet it now:

Germany - Bundesliga 1
Bayern Munchen -226 over Arminia Bielefeld
-226 vs. -300

 

[quantumleap]

Well DLC moved a couple points against my favor but Lyon took a big swing cheaper. The spread for Racing Santander is 46 points. I've taken bets at 48 points but I think I'll wait until just before the match starts.

Spain - Primera
Deportivo La Coruna -264 over Levante

France - Coupe
Lyon -226 over Sedan Ardennes

 

[GreenDoberman]

QL,
anything you really recommend jumping on today.

Already on Chris' German picks as well as a Polish and Croat pair that I found.

You know I won't blame you if they lose, just demand a hooker instead.:toast:

 

[quantumleap]

QL,
anything you really recommend jumping on today.

Already on Chris' German picks as well as a Polish and Croat pair that I found.

You know I won't blame you if they lose, just demand a hooker instead.:toast:

Just the home chalk I have listed. I know a lot of people don't like to play these but at -226 you get $44 for a risk of $100. The problem is if you're only playing these 3 and you go 2-1 you lose a little bit. As I mentioned before my home chalk picks are 4-0 in the last 3 days so even if I go 1-2 I'm still ahead in that category.

I don't know if you've followed my thread but what I'm doing is finding matches where popular books have a line that is different by 50 points than other books. I think there is a reason the other books shade a line from -226 to -350 as in the case of Lyon.

 

[quantumleap]

Well DLC moved a couple points against my favor but Lyon took a big swing cheaper. The spread for Racing Santander is 46 points. I've taken bets at 48 points but I think I'll wait until just before the match starts.

Spain - Primera
Deportivo La Coruna -264 over Levante

France - Coupe
Lyon -226 over Sedan Ardennes

I forgot to put the spreads for recordkeeping purposes:

Spain - Primera
Deportivo La Coruna -264 over Levante
-264 vs. -315

France - Coupe
Lyon -226 over Sedan Ardennes
-226 vs. -350

 

[quantumleap]

Racing went to +192 so we have a 52-point spread.

Spain - La Liga
Racing Santander +192 over Sevilla (0.4 units)
Sevilla/Racing Santander draw +228 (0.6 units)
+192 vs. +140

 

[quantumleap]

Boy did I get that Racing Santander wrong. Maybe I should have just left well enough alone when it originally had a spread of 42.

On another note, large home chalks are 7-0, +3.23 after adjusting the system. I could go 0-4 in the next 4 and get all that wiped out so the jury is still out. Home dogs are 4-3, +1.43 in the last 4 days.

Bayern 2, Arminia 0, WINNER, +0.44
DLC 1, Levante 0, WINNER, +0.38
Lyon 1, Sedan 0, WINNER, +0.44
Racing 0, Sevilla 3, Loss, -1.00

Today: 3-1, +0.26
YTD: +2.05

 

[quantumleap]

Found another one. This is a cup match so I think there is extra incentive to win rather than draw.

Brazil - Cup
Internacional -197 over Sport Recife
-197 vs. -265

 

[quantumleap]

Another 1-0 winner by the home favorite.

Internacional 1, Sport Recife 0.

Today: 4-1, +0.77
YTD: +2.56

It's looking like 4 home dogs and 1 home favorite so far for Thursday. Possibly more will surface.

Still waiting on the +1/2 line for the home dogs.

 

[quantumleap]

No more commentary. I'll just let the linesmakers speak their opinions. Except that the linesmakers are frequently close when it comes to the lesser-known leagues. Thursday's Finland differences are the exception.

Italy - Cup
Catania +1/2 +101 over AS Roma
+385 vs. +285

Spain - Primera
Espanyol +1/2 -129 over Atletico Madrid
+266 vs. +200

Finland - Veikkausliga
Mariehamn -1/2 -182 over Kooteepee
-182 vs. -240

KUPS Kuopio +1/2 -145 over Lahti
+244 vs. +170

Vaasa +1/2 +103 over Turku
+324 vs. +240

 

[quantumleap]

Catania 1, Roma 1, WINNER, +0.76
Espanyol 0, Atletico 2, Loss, -1.00
Mariehamn 4, Kooteepee 2, WINNER, +0.55
KUPS 2, Lahti 3, Loss, -1.00
Vaasa 0, Helsinki 0, WINNER, +1.03

Today: 3-2, +0.34

YTD: +2.39

Nothing for Thursday night.

 

[quantumleap]

Ireland - Eircom League
Bray +1/2 -108 over Drogheda
+383 vs. +250
Using Paddy Power as one of my sharp books and they are at +285. Other books have gone from +320 to +383 for Bray.

 

[quantumleap]

Ireland - Eircom League
Bray +1/2 -108 over Drogheda
+383 vs. +250
Using Paddy Power as one of my sharp books and they are at +285. Other books have gone from +320 to +383 for Bray.

Bray 1, Drogheda 0, WINNER, +0.93

YTD: +3.32

6th straight positive day since adjusting the system.

 

[quantumleap]

Just 4 home dogs so far:

Germany - Bundesliga 1
Energie Cottbus +1/2 -144 over Hamburger
+228 vs. +170

Hansa Rostock +1/2 -105 over Bayer Leverkusen
+290 vs. +230

Hertha Berlin +1/2 -143 over Nurnberg
+215 vs. +160

France - Ligue 1
Le Mans +1/2 -139 over Marseille
+257 vs. +200

 

[quantumleap]

Le Mans is now at +266 vs +235 which is less than the 50 points I like. I should have waited until this morning to make the bet.

Ireland - Eircom League
Cobh Ramblers +1/2 -108 over Bohemians
+355 vs. +260 (Paddy Power has +275)