Holland - Eredivisie
NEC Nijmegen pk +110 over Roda
+166 vs. +105 (for Roda). Most books have Roda at +166 while a few have this at +105 meaning I'm fading Roda since the few books are giving such a worse price. I'm taking the pk to be safe.
I'm also taking this bet in my regular European thread.
NEC Nijmegen pk +110 over Roda
+166 vs. +105 (for Roda). Most books have Roda at +166 while a few have this at +105 meaning I'm fading Roda since the few books are giving such a worse price. I'm taking the pk to be safe.
I'm also taking this bet in my regular European thread.
OK, I've really tried to be more selective on my bets but I have a load of picks today. I'm limiting my selections to those that are 30% different between most books and books that offer a lower price in selected matches. I plan to put together a list of my bets in this thread that fit that criteria where I have listed the 30% or more difference in price to see if it is profitable.
The first number is the number offered by most books. The second number is the number listed by select books (I hate to call them "sharp").
EPL
Birmingham +1/2 -131 over Fulham
+249 vs. +185
Portsmouth +1/2 -105 over Middlesbrough
+312 vs. +230
Reading -1/2 +132 over Tottenham
+132 vs. +100
England - League 1
Carlisle -1/2 +105 over Bournemouth
+105 vs. -133
Cheltenham +1/2 -127 over Doncaster
+255 vs. +185
Leyton -1/2 +128 over Bristol
+128 vs. -105
Tranmere +1/2 -130 over Northampton
+268 vs. +200
Nottingham Forest -300 over Yeovil
-300 vs. -450
Walsall -1/2 -101 over Hartlepool
-101 vs. -133
The first number is the number offered by most books. The second number is the number listed by select books (I hate to call them "sharp").
EPL
Birmingham +1/2 -131 over Fulham
+249 vs. +185
Portsmouth +1/2 -105 over Middlesbrough
+312 vs. +230
Reading -1/2 +132 over Tottenham
+132 vs. +100
England - League 1
Carlisle -1/2 +105 over Bournemouth
+105 vs. -133
Cheltenham +1/2 -127 over Doncaster
+255 vs. +185
Leyton -1/2 +128 over Bristol
+128 vs. -105
Tranmere +1/2 -130 over Northampton
+268 vs. +200
Nottingham Forest -300 over Yeovil
-300 vs. -450
Walsall -1/2 -101 over Hartlepool
-101 vs. -133
Birmingham 0, Fulham 2, Loss, -1.00
Portsmouth 0, Middlesbrough 2, Loss, -1.00
Reading 0, Tottenham 1, Loss, -1.00
Carlisle 1, Bournemouth 1, Loss, -1.00
Cheltenham 2, Doncaster 1, WINNER, +0.78
Leyton 3, Bristol 1, WINNER, +1.28
Tranmere 1, Northampton 2, Loss, -1.00
Nottingham Forest 3, Yeovil 2, WINNER, +0.33
Walsall 2, Hartlepool 2, Loss, -1.00
Atletico 3, Huelva 0, WINNER, +0.60
Today: 4-6, -2.95
YTD: -2.61
Portsmouth 0, Middlesbrough 2, Loss, -1.00
Reading 0, Tottenham 1, Loss, -1.00
Carlisle 1, Bournemouth 1, Loss, -1.00
Cheltenham 2, Doncaster 1, WINNER, +0.78
Leyton 3, Bristol 1, WINNER, +1.28
Tranmere 1, Northampton 2, Loss, -1.00
Nottingham Forest 3, Yeovil 2, WINNER, +0.33
Walsall 2, Hartlepool 2, Loss, -1.00
Atletico 3, Huelva 0, WINNER, +0.60
Today: 4-6, -2.95
YTD: -2.61
OK, since I did so poorly today I thought it would be a good time for me to take a look at the numbers. I've noticed that the home team bets are much better than the road team bets (home: 9-6-3, road: 5-8). Also, especially today, I've noticed that the bets with a spread of less than 50 points have not done well either. I had been using 30 points as a criteria. I also had a couple bets with -1 instead of -1/2 that were pushes so I think I'll just bet -1/2 in the future.
If I bet this system using only home teams (-1/2, not -1) with a spread of 50 points or more, these would be the results:
Home (11-1-1, +6.83):
Everton pk -137, Push, 0.00
Real Madrid -1/2 -245, WINNER, +0.41
Roma -1/2 -191, WINNER, +0.52
Munchen -1/2 -119, WINNER, +0.84
River Plate -1/2 -152, WINNER, +0.66
Freiburg -1/2 +110, WINNER, +1.10
Vitoria Setubal -1/2 -153, Loss, -1.00
Aalborg -1/2 -165, WINNER, +0.61
Goteborg -1/2 -250, WINNER, +0.40
Montpelier +214/+160, WINNER, +0.30
Cheltenham +1/2 -127, WINNER, +0.78
Leyton -1/2 +128, WINNER, +1.28
Nottingham -1/2 -300, WINNER, +0.33
Atletico -1/2 -167, WINNER, +0.60
More for Sunday using these new criteria.
These numbers do not include the totals. It's hard to find totals late at night. I'll try to find more of those in the mornings during the week.
If I bet this system using only home teams (-1/2, not -1) with a spread of 50 points or more, these would be the results:
Home (11-1-1, +6.83):
Everton pk -137, Push, 0.00
Real Madrid -1/2 -245, WINNER, +0.41
Roma -1/2 -191, WINNER, +0.52
Munchen -1/2 -119, WINNER, +0.84
River Plate -1/2 -152, WINNER, +0.66
Freiburg -1/2 +110, WINNER, +1.10
Vitoria Setubal -1/2 -153, Loss, -1.00
Aalborg -1/2 -165, WINNER, +0.61
Goteborg -1/2 -250, WINNER, +0.40
Montpelier +214/+160, WINNER, +0.30
Cheltenham +1/2 -127, WINNER, +0.78
Leyton -1/2 +128, WINNER, +1.28
Nottingham -1/2 -300, WINNER, +0.33
Atletico -1/2 -167, WINNER, +0.60
More for Sunday using these new criteria.
These numbers do not include the totals. It's hard to find totals late at night. I'll try to find more of those in the mornings during the week.
I thought I would post a couple from Serie A that fit the criteria except that they are on the road. This is just to see if we have a viable system with road teams. These 2 will not count in the running total as they are not picks.
Inter Milan pk +131 over AC Milan
+244 vs. +160
Fiorentina pk +110 over Cagliari
+208/+145
These are for the record (and are all at home):
Germany - Bundesliga 1
Duisburg +1/2 -128 over Leverkusen
+249/+195
Germany - Bundesliga 2
Offenbacher +247 over Monchengladbach (1/2 unit)
Monchengladbach/Offenbacher draw +221 (1/2 unit)
+247/+185
Portugal - Superliga
Amadora +415 over Benfica (0.3 units)
Benfica/Amadora draw +247 (0.7 units)
+415/+350
(some books have this from +450 to +500!!)
Maritimo Funchal -250 over Uniao Leiria
-265 vs. -333
(some books have this at -250)
Inter Milan pk +131 over AC Milan
+244 vs. +160
Fiorentina pk +110 over Cagliari
+208/+145
These are for the record (and are all at home):
Germany - Bundesliga 1
Duisburg +1/2 -128 over Leverkusen
+249/+195
Germany - Bundesliga 2
Offenbacher +247 over Monchengladbach (1/2 unit)
Monchengladbach/Offenbacher draw +221 (1/2 unit)
+247/+185
Portugal - Superliga
Amadora +415 over Benfica (0.3 units)
Benfica/Amadora draw +247 (0.7 units)
+415/+350
(some books have this from +450 to +500!!)
Maritimo Funchal -250 over Uniao Leiria
-265 vs. -333
(some books have this at -250)
Crystal Palace 5, Burnley 0, :scared: WINNER, +0.44
Duisburg 3, Leverkusen 2, WINNER, +0.78
Offenbacher 0, Monchengladbach 7, :scared: Loss, -1.00
Amadora 0, Benfica 0, WINNER, +1.43
Maritimo 2, Uniao, WINNER, +0.38
Today: 4-1, +2.03
YTD: -0.58
A couple home chalks but still a positive overall.
Amadora went up to +536 at some books.
The two road teams I mentioned both lost.
There is one other road team that fits this scenario but I will not be playing it:
San Lorenzo pk +115 over Jujuy
+210/+130
Duisburg 3, Leverkusen 2, WINNER, +0.78
Offenbacher 0, Monchengladbach 7, :scared: Loss, -1.00
Amadora 0, Benfica 0, WINNER, +1.43
Maritimo 2, Uniao, WINNER, +0.38
Today: 4-1, +2.03
YTD: -0.58
A couple home chalks but still a positive overall.
Amadora went up to +536 at some books.
The two road teams I mentioned both lost.
There is one other road team that fits this scenario but I will not be playing it:
San Lorenzo pk +115 over Jujuy
+210/+130
Well San Lorenzo beat Jujuy 2-1 but we're not counting that one since it was on the road.
Denmark - SAS Ligaen
Horsense +1/2 +113 over FC Kobenhavn
+355/+280
Monday we have a good match as FCK is a good fade. They recently won their only match in the month of April at home against Esbjerg. Prior to that they were 0 wins, 4 losses and 2 draws.
Horsense is just behind FCK in the tables so they are no slouch. They have only lost twice at home this season so this bet is a favorable one against a slumping FCK squad.
Denmark - SAS Ligaen
Horsense +1/2 +113 over FC Kobenhavn
+355/+280
Monday we have a good match as FCK is a good fade. They recently won their only match in the month of April at home against Esbjerg. Prior to that they were 0 wins, 4 losses and 2 draws.
Horsense is just behind FCK in the tables so they are no slouch. They have only lost twice at home this season so this bet is a favorable one against a slumping FCK squad.
